Academy Anonymous

Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions; Torres and Baptiste To Lead A Best Actress Revenge Tour; Villeneuve In The Best Director Doghouse; Hail Mary Plays For Best Picture of the Year

• Jules & Joseph • Season 1 • Episode 12

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

  • The “Best” Best Actress contender lineup….ever?
  • Best Actress - THERE WILL BE SNUBS
  • Fernanda Torres aims to spoil Oscar morning for vets Cynthia Erivo & Marianne Jean-Baptiste
  • Demi Moore, Karla Sofia Gascon, Mikey Madison… too many newbies?
  • An Oscars 5-for-5 with the Directors Guild of America for Best Director
  • Is it now or never for director James Mangold 
  • Can Denis Villeneuve find the sweet spot again with his directing branch for Dune, Part 2
  • Oscar morning headline - “Female directors shut-out at the Academy Awards, again”
  • The Producers Guild of America tries to go 100% with the Oscars Best Picture lineup for two years in a row!!
  • The secret weapon for A Real Pain landing in Best Picture of the Year
  • A24’s Sing Sing & MGM’s Nickel Boys (two of the year’s best) left out in the cold…
Joseph:

Hello listeners and welcome back to Academy Anonymous. You're here with Joseph and Jules and we're going to be talking about best actress and before we start, let's just take a moment to feel some gratitude for what has been a spectacular year in performances from lead actress. It has been a best actress, in my opinion, for the ages. Whatever you want to get out of a performance, it is there among the top 15 contenders. I congratulate all the ladies, all the women on their performances, all the artists on their performances. They have so much to be proud of. Of course, the list only has five spots, which means there is going to be as worthy a list of performances that you can compose out of the individuals that did not get in. So just let's take a moment to be grateful for that. Hopefully we have another fantastic actress year next year or in the coming years, because this has just been great.

Jules:

Right. I think the unfortunate thing is going to be we're going to see some people left off. But let's start with who got nominated for the SAG. Again, probably the most important precursor that an actor can get. It's Demi Moore for The Substance, Karla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez, Mikey Madison for Anora, Cynthia Erivo for Wicked and Pamela Anderson for The Last Showgirl. And for the BAFTAs, we had Demi Moore for The Substance, Mikey Madison for Anora, Karla Sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez, Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths and Saoirse Ronan for The Outrun. Finally, Finally.

Jules:

A beautiful performance that got completely neglected this year, unfortunately, heartbreakingly so.

Joseph:

I'm telling you. I mean and then the BAFTA long list also listed Amy Adams in Night Bitch. They listed Kate Winslet in Lee. They listed Marisa Abela in Back to Black and Nicole Kidman in Babyg irl, a Golden Globe nominee. Angelina Jolie was a Golden Globe nominee for her performance in Maria. Not listed at SAG or at BAFTA is Fernanda Torres, who is your Globe winner. Yeah.

Joseph:

And June Squibb gave a great performance in Thelma. I don't know if enough people saw it. Yeah, it'd be great to see her there. Anyway, is there anyone else that we need to mention here in terms of people who were contending before we start digging into the Guild and the British Academy?

Joseph:

Well, Tilda Swinton had a Golden Globe nomination, Zendaya got a Golden Globe nomination.

Joseph:

Zendaya in Challengers had a great year..

Jules:

Yeah, but those are really the prime contenders, I would say, and one would think that the people here who you can pretty much count on getting nominated would be Demi Moore and The Substance. You and I call that that Golden Globe win and we very much thought that her Golden Globe win and a good speech which she did give, would really lead her towards a path very much in the vein of Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side getting nominated, an actor who's been around for a very long time and never gotten their flowers, finally getting their flowers from the industry, albeit in a, you know, sort of alternative choice, as a film - doesn't typically get nominated, that in and of itself is a feat. She's leading the charge, she's the face of that film and I think she stands a terrific chance to get nominated and even more so to win the whole thing. I think that Mikey Madison in Anora is such a centerpiece to her film and that film stands to do really well that I think she's a lock for nomination. Then I think it gets a little tricky.

Jules:

Karla Sofia Gascon is in Emelia Perez. She seems like she would be a shoo-in to get nominated, considering how well we expect Emilia Perez to do. That being said, if we have to snub somebody on this list, possibly someone that they're not very familiar with another foreign language performance, that might be the person who gets you know the short end of the stick. I personally don't think it's going to happen. I think Emilia Perez is positioned too strongly for that to happen, but in the event that there's a shocking snub, I wouldn't be shocked if it is her.

Joseph:

It's also history. It's also history that she's making here.

Jules:

Exactly. She's making history, so I don't see her getting snubbed. Could there possibly be some people in the Academy who are a little bit, um, kind of avoiding a you know sort of making that history because it would maybe possibly bring the conversation into neutral, uh gender neutral categories. Who knows, possibly something like that could possibly happen.

Jules:

Um, but right now I find her to be very safe and in probably one of the safest films in contention this year. And it gets tricky after that, after those three which I firmly feel are going to get in, then it gets tough. I would like to bring up in this conversation of best actress that not since 1970 has there been a best actress lineup that didn't include a veteran. 1970 was the last time. And even more strangely, before then, after then I should say after 1970, every year has included two at least veterans in the lineup.

Joseph:

So are you saying strangely or prophetically?

Jules:

Either way, but that's something that is very striking, that this -

Joseph:

That's a lot of time, since 1970.

Jules:

This category has found a way to include at least two veterans in this category, which is very remarkable. There were years pre-1970 where there were a single, there was a single veteran nominee in the category you had mentioned earlier.

Joseph:

I think 1966 with Elizabeth Taylor winning for Virginia Woolf. That year only had one veteran and it was the winner.

Joseph:

Elizabeth Taylor, she won.

Joseph:

And the other nominees were all newbies. I'll tell you something else that was striking about that list as we go further on into our discussions, but it's happened before too. I think there was a year in the 50s maybe that saw maybe one veteran, or all new girls too, but for the most part, you're going to see two veterans in the 70s, certainly two veterans in the 80s, two veterans in the 90s, two veterans in the aughts and in 2010 forward. It's really that one year in 1970 that had nobody, and from 1960, I think you had again that one year with Elizabeth Taylor as the only veteran. So it's very a lot of history on the side of two veterans here.

Jules:

Right, exactly. And I will say, jumping off of that, that if you look at the contenders that managed to get SAG and BAFTA, there are two veterans that stand out. Cynthia Erivo in Wicked has gotten everything as a precursor

Jules:

Perfect

Jules:

For precursors she's been perfect. And Marianne Jean-Baptiste managed, thank God, to get a spot at the BAFTA for Best Actress for Hard Truths..

Jules:

Less than perfect

Jules:

Right. She's also the trifecta winner. She won the Los Angeles Film Critics, the New York Film Critics Circle and the National Society of Film Critics. I believe that there's only been one actor, female actor, who's won all three and not gone on to get a nomination, and I think that was for a Mike Leigh film and I think that was Sally Hawkins.

Jules:

Prophetic, possibly.

Jules:

Possibly prophetic. There's there's also the issue that Mike mike Leigh lee hasn't really gotten his actors in unless he's also been a nominee for Best Director. That's also something to keep in mind, but in general, those would be the two veterans that stand out most to get those last two veteran spots. However, the contender who's really complicating things in this category is Fernando Torres, for Brazil's I'm Still Here, which was a huge box office success You have to think -

Jules:

A shoe- shoe in, also a shoe in for foreign.

Jules:

Exactly exactly, it's a shoe in for foreign film, but you have to think that because the international community is so much more uh, you know, involved in Oscar oscar race, you know it matters that it was such a big hit Brazil brazil. Um, the foreign voters, some of them, are watching that movie. She just won Golden Globe surprisingly surprisingly, even though we called it, and so she's really making things complicated here because, as Golden Globe globe drama winner, she should be guaranteed a spot. There's already a foreign performance in this lineup Karla Sofia Gascon gascon. Could that come into as As to Fernanda Torres torres is left out, um, I don't know, but she should technically be almost guaranteed a spot with Golden Globe globe win. But in the event that she were to get in and, uh, we feel pretty confident Demi Moore, Mikey Madison madison Karla Sofia Gascon gascon she would actually have to get in over a

Jules:

veteran

Jules:

. J. L L J

Joseph:

Possibly, over Sally Hawkins.

Jules:

She would have to get in over a Mike veteran Leigh and so it means she's either. getting in over Marianja Baptiste or she's getting in over Cynthia Erivo, and they both have pros and cons. We mentioned some. For Marianja Baptiste, who gives one of the best, best, maybe possibly the best performance of the year in hard truths, she's absolutely volcanic and, um, incredible, and you know that's a uh, a feat of a performance, um, but she's in a mike lee film and mike lee doesn't tend to get his actors in, unless he's getting nine for best director at least possibly by herself as well she could possibly be by herself, because mike lee might miss the the screenplay category. Um, and sally hawkins was in a similar position.

Joseph:

She also was the trifecta winner for a mike lee film and she didn't get in, and so well, one thing we've talked about marianne Jean-Baptiste going for her is that, you know, throw on to that idea of a trifecta winner from Mike Lee not being able to go the distance and, you know, get nominated for actress, and that was with a Golden Globe win for comedy.

Jules:

That was Sally Hawkins right.

Joseph:

And a SAG snub right, which that's what Marianne Jean-Baptiste has this year. She has a SAG snub right, which that's what Marion Jean-Baptiste has this year. She has a SAG snub, the only edge.

Jules:

And a Globe snub.

Joseph:

And a Globe snub. But the only edge that Marion Jean-Baptiste has is that she is a former nominee.

Jules:

Exactly, that's her biggest, that's the biggest weapon that she yields. That unlike Sally Hawkins, who was left out, and unlike, for example, leslie Manville, who had an opportunity with Another Year, another Mike Lee film, another great Mike Lee film and when she was left out. Mary-angele Baptiste is a past nominee. The last time she was on here was for a Mike Lee film called Secrets and Lies in the supporting category, so it's a category shift. It's been so many years since her last nomination.

Jules:

I'm sure there are actors in the voting branch who remember her performance, who remember her as an actor. She's continued to work since then in various different types of films and projects, and so this is really a welcome opportunity to bring her back in for a performance that is unlike anything you've seen from her as of now probably the performance of her career thus far, and so you can't help but think that there are members in the Academy that are going to feel that they want to champion that and they want to award that. Going also against her is that possibly her character can be unlikable to a certain extent.

Joseph:

It's a Mike Lee character. Yeah, it's a very dimensional character.

Jules:

Yeah, but it might be a demanding character in the sense that you might struggle to sort of penetrate those layers.

Joseph:

Empathize.

Jules:

Empathize, et cetera, et cetera, and that might be something that is tricky for her. So those are the cons that are going for against her. And looking at Cynthia Erivo, who's the other veteran contender here, she has pros and cons going for her as well and going against her as well. Um, one of them being the fantasy musicals. As we said similarly with ariana grande, they don't tend to land in acting categories. Um also is the fact that she was recently nominated, just five years ago, for harriet. Um, that was a nomination that she didn't need to be nominated for.

Joseph:

It was a competitive. Yeah, it was a competitive year, right?

Jules:

And she landed that nomination for playing Harriet Tubman. She actually landed two nominations that year for actress and for a songwriting credit, and so there might not be an urge for the Academy to feel like they need to nominate Cynthia Rievel this time around, that they can wait a little longer. It's not a category shift. She's going from lead to lead.

Joseph:

Which is tough, which is tough to do, you know not enough of a cycle has happened.

Jules:

Again if you want to know more about that, visit some of our earlier episodes when we're talking about these patterns and trends in the acting categories. Not enough of a cycle has happened yet. It's only been five years.

Jules:

The part two of it, all the part two of it all I think might be something that makes it less attractive to voters, and so she has a lot of cons going against her. One of the pros is that she is a past nominee, yeah, and so there's a certain respect that is attached to her name as a previous nominee. But Wicked is a huge success and it stands to certainly get an eye for Best Picture and get several nominations, so that's going for her.

Joseph:

The fact that it's a musical is something not going for her right, Because you already have a musical spot there.

Jules:

You already have another musical spot here. Similarly, like Supporting Actress, it's rare for you to see two different types of musicals nominated in the same acting category, and it's certainly rare to see it happen twice in a year. So Cynthia Erivo, I think, has, interestingly enough, more cons than pros, and someone like Marianne Jean-Baptiste that possibly stands a better chance and that maybe her film was certainly more seen by American voters than Heart Truth might've been.

Joseph:

Yeah, Don't forget that Heart Truth is being distributed by Bleeker Street, which has had some success in the acting categories, but very, very few success stories from Bleeker Street. And then also I just want to mention, as we talk about this, British Academy. There were no saves this year.

Joseph:

There were no jury saves yeah so these nominees were the top vote getters right from the acting branch as a whole, and that actually, I think, bodes really well for both cynthia revo and marianne jean-baptiste but certainly marianne jean-baptiste, because even in the uk a mike lee film getting nominated for anything is never a given there.

Jules:

Right, exactly, sally Hawkins missed for.

Joseph:

Happy Go Lucky.

Jules:

So I think there's a certain strength to this contender that maybe not enough people are looking at. I'm really happy that she got that BAFTA nomination. I think she needed that BAFTA nomination. I have a hard time thinking about the last time that someone a contender got a BAFTA nomination and won the trifecta and didn't get nominated.

Joseph:

That's interesting because Leslie Manville, I know, got nominated for a BAFTA for another year, but she did not win the trifecta Exactly, and Sally Hawkins won the trifecta but didn't get nominated for a BAFTA. Yes.

Jules:

So, in a way, and then considering the strength of that performance, I think all actors have to do is watch it to place it high on their ballot. And she's a past nominee who hasn't been there for a very long time, so I'm just feeling good about this nomination for Mary Jane Baptiste. The thing that I'm feeling less sure about is if fernanda torres can spoil the spot for cynthia or if really cynthia revo and the strength of wicked overall ends up spoiling, uh, fernanda torres's chances, despite a golden globe win well, I mean, we have the golden globe win, we have a massive success in brazil, we have um the daughter of f, fernanda Montenegro.

Jules:

And so we talk about the Marion.

Joseph:

Jean-Baptiste revenge tour from Secret and Lies. We have the Fernanda Torres revenge tour for her mother in Central Station with Walter Sy as the director, and I'll tell you what we're missing some real people here. And Fernanda Torres has that in spades Right?

Jules:

Yeah, this category should like all the other categories. There should be someone real in this category, a real life figure. Absolutely An actor, that's representing a real life figure and we're missing that. We thought we would have that with Angelina Jolie for Maria.

Joseph:

Or.

Jules:

Kate, or Kate Winslet for Lee, or even Saoirse Ronan for the Out. Run. That's all sort of kind of been dismantled, and so the best we've got is Fernanda Torres and I'm still here, which is no small thing, because again, it's a big hit in Brazil.

Joseph:

Yeah, and again, as people have seen it, I will double down and say that if you watch that film after the Golden Globe, you can be perfect and then some it is a very difficult performance to overcome. Right can be perfect and then some it is a very difficult performance to overcome right. It is such compelling material, it is such a compelling story and it is such a nuanced performance that at that also sort of in a way, is also extremely loud, and how quiet it is and how soft it is that I'm telling you you can be demi more and win every single trophy from here to the Oscars, and Fernanda Torres can be absent of all the nominations and you can still lose to Fernanda Torres. Right.

Joseph:

Right. So I think that another factor going for her is the Sony Picture Classics element. Right yeah. And that was not nominated for a BAFTA. But you know, who was nominated for a BAFTA was a Sony Picture Classics girl, and that's Saoirse Ronan. And so why don't we talk a little bit about we talked about Cynthia Erivo as a vet, but Saoirse Ronan is a vet too. And she got in from the British Academy.

Jules:

Yeah, I would love for that to happen. I think she gives one of the best performances of the year. That being said, I do feel it's a bit quiet and, unlike Marion de Baptiste, you know, saoirse Ronan is often in the Oscar conversation. They may feel that a fifth nomination at her age I think she's just barely 30 might be a bit much, especially if maybe she's not in it to win it, so to speak. So you know, I think that's going against Saoirse Ronan maybe she won't break her best picture streak.

Joseph:

She tends to get nominated with a film that's nominated against Saoirse Ronan.

Jules:

Maybe she won't break her best picture streak Right? She tends to get nominated with a film that's nominated for best picture. She's never been nominated by herself completely, which is what she would be if she got nominated for the Outrun. So, and on paper, Kate Winslet and Lee would sound up the rally because of who she's playing. I think the Baptist snub and the Sax snub are indicative.

Joseph:

Angelina as well again.

Jules:

Oh yeah, huge snubs there.

Joseph:

Yeah, unlike Kate, she hasn't been nominated since 2008, which feels like an eternity. Her movie was shortlisted for makeup. We know makeup likes to reward some real life people, so maybe she wouldn't get in by herself. And you had already earlier on in this podcast you had positioned Maria as lookout for, you know, Angelina Jolie to possibly miss some dealing with other things that had nothing to do with movies or Oscars.

Joseph:

Maybe there's enough of an international faction to get her in. She's not on that BAFTA long list but she is, you know, known globally. And again, if the wildfires made every race sort of stop at the Golden Globes, right. Because that's more or less before everything got out of hand. If that's the case, then she was still in a relatively strong position at that point Right.

Joseph:

And she could also be the real factor, right, the real individual on this list, right, right. So she, like Kate Winslet, are playing that same card, but unlike Kate Winslet, she's been waiting a little bit longer, Right, longer, right 100, I agree. Um, and then someone like pamela anderson got in for the screen actors guild award ahead of angelina jolie and ahead of kate winslet and ahead of sir sharonan yeah not surprised to see her ahead of fernando torres.

Joseph:

it's a more of an international performance. I'm not sure the committee really prioritized watching it, but I do think that it's important that you know Pamela Anderson was able to sort of make that finish line. It shows some some you know she's going to have some votes for sure. The Jamie Lee Curtis mentioned at BAFTA is going to is going to show that people are watching that film. But I think it also serves as this idea that these strong sort of iconic actresses and these strong performances they're running second to Pamela Anderson and they're happy to sort of embrace her and champion her and sort of put her on a pedestal celebrating the work she's done, even if she does not have the career of Angelina Jolie or Kate Winslet.

Joseph:

Which brings me to my final point that I wanted to bring up. When we're looking at both the British Academy and the Guild to sort of help mold that final list is here's what I'm noticing If you look at the SAG list, how many veterans do you have that are previous Oscar nominees In the SAG list At the Screen Actors Guild? One.

Joseph:

Only one right, cynthia Erivo, and if you look at the BAFTA list, you have three newbies right. You have who everyone is pegging, which is Demi Moore, carla and Mikey, and you have three veterans right, but BAFTA has never nominated Cynthia Erivo, and so technically that's sort of a new person for.

Joseph:

BAFTA to be nominating Right, and so what calls my attention is that, and in terms of the SAG, you're getting one Oscar nominee in Cynthia Erivo, but you're getting four non-Oscar nominees and, I believe, four first-time SAG nominees. I'm not sure if Demi Moore has been nominated individually before. And, in terms of the BAFTA, you're getting three previous Oscar nominees Saoirse, marion and Cynthia but you're getting four first-time BAFTA nominees, but you're getting four first-time BAFTA nominees. So I'm thinking that the energy right now is for the idea of including four new actresses, sort of mimicking 1966.

Jules:

We talked about that with.

Joseph:

Elizabeth Taylor in who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf. I'm thinking that's going to be the best comparison for what this list ends up looking like.

Jules:

Right, and there's something interesting about that year.

Joseph:

Right. The other fascinating thing about that year is not only was there just one veteran, which is a rarity.

Jules:

And she won, and she won.

Joseph:

Elizabeth Taylor. She won In a performance that I think we can make some interesting comparisons, possibly between her and Demi Moore in the Substance could be kind of an interesting conversation to have.

Jules:

But you have two foreign language performances nominated that same year, which is not something that happens often, at all Not at all.

Joseph:

You had the performance from the Shop on Main Street and the performance from A man and a Woman. I believe Both of them were nominated. Does not happen very often, on their first nomination, potentially seeing only one veteran get in and two foreign language performances get in, if Carla and Fernanda manage to stay in the top five.

Jules:

Right, a hundred percent. I think that that was an eerie parallel that we found going backwards and really mimics this particular category this season, and so I think really we're both on the money, that we feel like Demi Moore, mikey Madison, carlos, sofia Gascon and Fernanda Torres will be there. It's really a question about, at the end of the day, will Marianne Jean-Baptiste be able to overcome Cynthia Erivo and Wicked Right.

Joseph:

I think that is the question most people are posing. But I'm sorry, I really like the whole revenge tour theme. I think that's a thing this year what I really like is a trifecta winner and a bafta nominee that's great and, like I said, no, bafta saves this time and we know that hartruves was in typical, you know bafta and major, you know award body fashion was not liked enough to get the wonderful uh, her wonderful co-star. Michelle Austin nominated, but it was liked enough to get Marianne Jean-Baptiste nominated and I think that's important.

Jules:

Right, exactly, and so for my final predictions, I'm going to go with Demi Moore, the substance, Mikey Madison, Anora Carlos Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez, Fernanda Torres I'm still here. And Marian Madison, Onora Carlos Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez, Fernanda Torres I'm Still here. And Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths, and my spoiler is going to be Cynthia Erivo, for Wicked.

Joseph:

I think that that is the only way to go. Really, I think I would go Demi Moore for the Substance, mikey Madison for Onora Carlos, sofia Gascon for Emilia Perez Making History. Fernanda Torres I'm Still here Revenge Tour for Her Mother and Central Station, and Marion Jean-Baptiste Heart Truth Revenge Tour for Secret and Lies, and Mike Lee Exactly. And then my spoiler I think is Cynthia Erivo. I think this is a shoe-in nomination for Cynthia Erivo, had she missed.

Joseph:

Harriet had she missed Harriet. Had she been snubbed there? Yeah, had she been snubbed there? Yeah, had she been snubbed there, I would have bet my life that she would have scored a best actress nomination for either part one or part two, right Exactly.

Jules:

And so those are final predictions for this very hotly contested best actress category. I think, no matter what happens, you know, expect to be surprised by someone or someone's who are left out. Yeah.

Jules:

Unfortunately, we'll see what happens, and that's our dive into our final predictions for Best Actress. Okay, moving on to the category of Best Director, I think this race has really calcified as well, like some of the other above the line categories, and so we have just a number of people to pick from here, and I would say that, in reality, for me, maybe there are about seven contenders that I think could possibly happen, and I feel mostly that it's really between six personally for me. Um, let's look at who. We went over in our previous episode of the dga that the nominees were brady corbett, for the brutalists, sean baker for honora, jacques odier, familia paris, edward berger for conclave and james mangled for complete unknown all first time nominees at the director's guild award and potentially all first-time oscar nominees in the category of best Director.

Jules:

Correct the DGA didn't have a veteran spot.

Joseph:

They opted out of one.

Jules:

There's oftentimes more often than not a veteran that gets a spot here in Best Director. And for the BAFTA we had Brady Corbett for the Brutalist, sean Baker for Honora, jacques Audillard for Amelia Perez, edward Berger for Conclave, coralie Fargeat for the Substance and Denis Villeneuve for Doom Part II.

Joseph:

So no James Mangold from the DGA, and Coralie Fargeat and Denis Villeneuve in.

Jules:

Exactly, and so really I feel that the five for the Oscars will be between those two groups and, to be honest, I feel pretty good about Brady Corbet for the Brutalist, and Sean Baker and Onora, and Jacques Cotillard for Amelia Perez and Edward Berger for Conclave. I feel pretty solid about those four. It's really that last spot for me, and I'm right now between following the DGA5 and going with James Mangle for Complete Unknown, who's been nominated here previously as a writer and as a producer.

Joseph:

Who would be nominated this year for producing and writing a Complete Unknown as well.

Jules:

Exactly, and the only person that I think could spoil this is an actual veteran who could spoil this list as an actual veteran, and that's Denis Villeneuve in Dune Part 2, who was left out of the Guild this year but did make it in for the Guild in 2021 for Dune Part 2, who was left out of the guild this year but did make it in for the guild in 2021 for Dune as opposed to the Academy, where he did not get nominated for the guild.

Jules:

And so I go back and forth thinking will the Academy feel like, because they snubbed him from the first one and he only has one nomination for arrival and his name is so reputable now, will they feel like they want to give him a feather in his cap for the achievement that was the entirety of Dune and give him a nomination for Best Director finally for this franchise? Or will they say well, you know, I didn't nominate him for Dune Part 1. I'm not going to nominate him for Dune Part 2. I want to see something non-franchise related. I hear that he's going to make more Dune movies, so that's a problem.

Jules:

Maybe I don't have to nominate him right now.

Joseph:

And you can nominate him for Part 3 or however many parts there are.

Joseph:

I definitely think that the Part 1 of it all and the part two of it all is an issue. Listen, the DGA. They're going to try to put a veteran as often as possible, and so the fact that they left off Denevil New, I think, is really bad news. He's not doing anything here that he didn't do in part one. I think it's going to be very difficult for him to win this category without that DGA. I think it's going to be very difficult for him to win this category without that DGA. And if you kind of think about it, if he does not win this category and gets nominated for an Academy Award this year, he'll be two nominations in, and that ties Christopher Nolan who has a win?

Joseph:

And that surpasses Guillermo del Toro and that's already surpassing Greta Gerwig. So I really think that the directors here might be a little bit more selective and decide to leave him off for both films. That's what I'm thinking right now. I'm thinking that if the DGA went veteranless, that this Academy branch is going to go veteran list.

Joseph:

this academy branch, I would argue, is even pickier than the dga, right they're going to see that dj list and they're going to swap out for some more unique choices, more international choices, right, more politically charged choices they may do that in other years previous right. And then it's kind of shocking because if there's one director that has been talked up by the bigger names in the industry, like Steven Spielberg and Christopher Nolan right it would be Danilo new, you know um.

Joseph:

So I I understand where you're coming from, but I think that that DGA snub might have been the final nail in the coffin for Danilo new scoring a nod here right I.

Jules:

I think it's a good sign that he got Nami at BAFTAs. We don't know exactly what number he was, but he may have been number five. Over the next person we'll talk about Coralie Fargeat for the Substance. I think people are feeling pretty confident about her getting in this year. I'm not as confident, I think Coralie Fargeat getting nominated for a film like the Substance, which again stands to make waves this Oscar season, by being embraced because it's a genre film and it's totally not the thing they go for.

Joseph:

Mubi's first film too.

Jules:

Mubi's first film. So seeing the Substance nominated or Coralie Fargeau nominated for as a producer, as a director and as a writer and possibly as an editor, it just seems like too much for a film. That's sort of breaking ground in a way, and so I don't like her for this nomination. I think director's branch is very picky about the women filmmakers that they let into this category. Last year we did have a female filmmaker, but not the one that most people thought.

Jules:

Or Celine Song, either Exactly, and they could have done two that year. So I think they're very picky and I think their pickiness is going to go to the top five films, the films they thought were the top five films of the year. Right.

Jules:

And so because I think a film like A Complete Unknown has that sort of coveted spot over something like the Substance is why I give the edge to people, to someone like James Mangold. I don't think Carly Fargeau in the Substance sort of occupies that same level of stature. James Mangold has been working for a long time and he's never been nominated as a director, and this would be an opportunity to do so. Carly Fargeau for some of these directors it's the first time they're seeing her. I don't know how many of them saw her first film, Revenge. We already have a first-timer on here who's only had three films. I'm unsure how many of those films the director's branch has already seen with Brady Corbett. Sean Baker's a newbie, Jacques Audillard, has been working for a very long time as well, but for the first time he's going to be recognized by this branch. Edward Berger this is sort of the second film that most of them are seeing after Alcoy on the Western Front. So putting Carly Fergeau on this list feels like a little overkill in terms of newness.

Joseph:

Yeah, I could see that.

Jules:

That's what I'm thinking, and the other person that people are possibly contemplating is Rommel Ross for Nickel Boys. A beautiful job by romell ross, certainly a very talented, ambitious, experimental, exciting filmmaker. Unfortunately, I just think the film is way too ambitious yeah and experimental for this branch. Uh, to penetrate, to penetrate this branch. I think the nickel boys main prize will be a screenplay nomination hopefully it's a bridge too far.

Joseph:

Um, at this point, from romeel Ross, who did an amazing job, but I do not think that he will end up being nominated. So I mean, is there anyone you haven't talked about, or are you comfortable with just those names?

Jules:

I'm comfortable with just those names. I know there's someone that you're eager to talk about.

Joseph:

Well, I will say, that is that I look at that DGA list and I'm dissatisfied. I will say that is that I look at that DGA list and I'm dissatisfied and I think about replacing James Mangold, who I think most people would replace out of those five Right, because they think that Conclave, emilia Perez and Nora on the blue list are so far ahead in terms of cementing themselves in Best Picture and Best Director and I replace James.

Joseph:

Mangold with the veteran Denis Villis venu, and I'm also dissatisfied right, I think directors are at the academy, are notoriously picky and I don't think that they're going to want to do spectacle for dune right anything with a part is probably not going to be nominated is what I'm thinking.

Joseph:

and then I think about replacing deniseneuve and James Mangold for Carly Fargeant, and I'm still dissatisfied. I think you have way too many con movies. I think it would have needed to win the Palme d'Or to cement that sort of position there. I think the substance is in a really interesting place because it's sort of in between the two films last year, greta Gerwig's Barbie and Justine Trillet's Anatomy of a Fall. It's a French film, it's a con film like Anatomy of a Fall. It's somewhat of a populist film, somewhat of a film that rewards the general movie-going audience, somewhat of a spectacle film and not, you know, the sort of austere, dialogue-driven, performance-driven piece that Anatomy of a Fall is.

Joseph:

And so, because it's in this weird place of both of those, I think it's not spectacle financial success enough to be a nominee in this category for something like Barbie, and I don't think it's austere enough to be a nominee in this category for something like Anatomy of a Fall. There's too much of a genre bent to it, so I'm sort of dissatisfied with that too. I think, honestly, there's room for one conventional movie and we have two at the DGA and that's either Conclave with Edward Berger or A Complete Unknown with James Mangold. I like that.

Joseph:

At that DJ list you do not have a veteran, but you have someone who's been working since the 90s, someone who's done Copland and Heavy and Girl Interrupted and gotten, you know, oscar nominations for his performances, been nominated in the editing field and the sound field and the costume field, and I think this is the project for him to get in. I think to me it sort of mirrors Taylor Hackford. He got a lot of attention in 1982 for an officer and a gentleman and he was finally able to break through and be nominated for Ray and he would go on to be, I think, president of the DGA for quite a while and I think James Mangold holds so much respect amongst his peers for being able to do musical and comedy and biography and action film and superhero film and all different kinds of genres right at all different kinds of budget levels, whether it's Copland or Night and Day or Logan, whatever, I can see him being president of the DGA at some point in his career.

Joseph:

And so I think this is the film for him to get in, and so I'm going to say that there is no veteran and that James Mangold would get in there instead of the veteran. But I still don't like the idea of these two sort of conventional pieces of Conclave and James Mangold there. So I think the controversial thing that's going to end up happening is that Edward Berger is not going to make it in for Conclave because he just does not have the filmography of Sean Baker or Jacques Garriard. It does not make sense to be nominating them at the same time.

Joseph:

Sure, his filmography rivals, you know, brady Corbett's but brady corbett is a writer, director, and brady corbett is shooting in vista vision, and you can already tell that he's going to be the kind of uncompromising filmmaker that the director's branch is going to nominate time and time again. I think edward berger is going to be sort of like denis venu, who's not necessarily going to be known for his writing but who's going to be able to deliver a compelling, dramatic visual piece that is well accomplished sonically and thematically and visually. But I don't think this is the film yet. I don't think this is the film yet. I think, looking at this list, you're going to see Conclave be possibly the most nominated film of the year and miss this one huge nomination which throws the whole winner argument into disarray. And so here's who I do like for it.

Joseph:

I've always been in the position that this is a very picky branch and the one person who I think has been working here forever, who's taken a bit of a break but who's come out with a film who I think is going to resonate politically with so much of this branch, is Walter Saez, for I'm Still here and I think he's the one who I think makes the most sense If I'm going to have a list with no veteran. I like the idea of putting Walter Saez in there, who's been working as long as any veteran has and has never gotten in, and James Mangold, for the exact same reason.

Jules:

Right, I think that's a fascinating case and certainly you bring up a lot of good points about how Edward Berger could possibly be snubbed for Conclave. I think it's certainly worth considering. I think that's certainly worth considering. I think that's a strong case. I think Walter Saez, from I'm Still here, is a very strong case. Right now I'm going to stick with James Mangold and I'm going to say it's the five from the DGA and my spoiler.

Joseph:

You know, based on what you were saying, maybe I'm going to say that my spoiler is Walter Saez, from I'm Still here. I'm telling you, I think that when you look at this list of nominees, walter Saez, along with James Mangold, but certainly Walter Saez as sort of an international figure in filmmaking, he stands out. He really does stand out, and I think Sony Pictures might be able to work its magic again. And the field is sort of there's just too much new talent here that is going to be nominated eventually.

Joseph:

I'm just not sure it makes sense to be nominating Sean Baker and Corley at the same time Jacques Arillard and Edward Berger at the same time Jacques Arillard and James Mangold. That makes sense. It makes sense to be nominating them at the same time, you know. But if I have to pick one piece of talent to be nominated right now, it would be Brady Corbett, because he checks so many of the boxes. But I'm just not sure I see all these young filmmakers being nominated at the same time when mangled and walter size have yet to be nominated. And the same thing with dennyville knew a second nomination for him, possibly without a win, when we haven't nominated mangled or walter size once right.

Jules:

one thing that keeps me hesitant about walter size, now that you're speaking about speaking on it is that, since we're not 100% sure that Fernanda Torres will definitely get nominated we believe that she will and we're pretty certain about it, but not 100% sure there's a reality where I'm Still here disappointingly walks out with just one nomination for Best Foreign Film.

Jules:

So I feel a little bit hesitant to put it for too many places. And what if it doesn't get nominated director and instead it gets a surprise nomination for screenplay, which is something within the realm of possibility too and instead it's screenplay and not director, so there's just too many variables for me to feel super confident in, but I think you bring up a good case, and so your five are Brady Corbett, jack ODR, sean Baker, james Mangold and Walter Saez.

Joseph:

Yeah.

Jules:

And your spoiler.

Joseph:

And my spoiler is going to be Denevo New, if they really want that veteran.

Jules:

All right, and then let's move on to the final category, the best picture, the million dollar baby, so to speak.

Jules:

So they say and so honestly, this is a almost complete list. I think we have eight very, very, very likely contenders and so really it's only about those last two spots, and even then I feel pretty good about who I'm putting at number nine. So for me it's more about who's going to get that last spot. Yeah, and so let's just run through it quickly. Emilia paris I expect to be a fully, uh, very, uh, several nominations on oscar nomination morning conclave possibly the most nominated film. Um, alongside emilia paris, the brutalist anora, a complete unknown dune part Substance. And for me, the number nine film is A Real Pain. Some people are a little bit iffy on it. I am not convinced by its competition. Sing Sing, nickel Boys I just don't think they're mustering enough presence strength to beat something like A Real Pain, which is a charming, accessible, likable film that is going to get nominated for screenplay and is going to get nominated and possibly win Best Supporting Actor.

Jules:

When you think about films that are Best Screenplay nominees and possibly an acting winner, you're going to have a hard time finding a movie that fits that category that doesn't get nine for best picture in a year of 10 I think we left for it exactly now, if it had been, you know, less than a year of 10, 5, 6 7, 10 sure, then possibly it gets, it misses, but in a year we have to get 10 spots and you have a very strong best supporting actor likely winner and a bonafide Best Screenplay nominee. Count on that film rounding out the list and getting that number nine spot. We did look back, as you said. One that we found was Regina King when she won for If Beale Street Could Talk. That movie was not nominated for Best Film.

Joseph:

But there was only eight spots.

Jules:

Right, it was nominated for Best Screenplay. However, was only eight spots? Right? It did. It was nominated for best screenplay. However, as you just said, there was only eight spots and it's very likely that in the year of 10, it would have been nominated.

Joseph:

There's every reason to believe that it would have been either spot nine or spot number 10 and same thing with something like blue jasmine, which got a best actress winner um and was nine for best screenplay and it wasn't nominated.

Jules:

But again, there were not 10 spots there were nine spots yeah, in a year of 10, it's very likely that blue jasmine would have rounded out that list very so the possibilities of real pain rounding out this list at number nine are very strong or very high, so I think it's a bona fide number nine the only thing I don't like about it which we can touch upon is the idea that fox searchlight gets two spots.

Joseph:

If a complete unknown had not worked out, the fox searchlight factor would have guaranteed a real, a real pain a spot. Here I still think you're right. It's in very good territory, especially when you compare it to its competition. Look, here's a film nominated for the golden globes, made the pga top 10, which is the best barometer here, but also, you know, nominated for the editors guild. Right, it didn't need to be nominated at the sag guild, unlike some, some of these other titles, and so I think it has enough wide support to make it onto this list.

Jules:

Right, and so really, I think we're both, just like most people, figuring out who's that last spot, and there are a few contenders to look at. Some people are going for Sing Sing, some people are going for Nickel Boys. Interestingly enough, they both got snuffed from the PGA.

Joseph:

And the other nine that we've mentioned are PGA nominees.

Jules:

Exactly On top of that, Sing Sing really underperformed at the SAG, which was really surprising to me. It only got one nomination and Nickel Boys didn't get any nomination. They both underperformed at the BAFTA. Nickel Boys has one nomination, Sing Sing has three, which isn't so bad, but certainly not the kind of contender that I think A24 initially had in mind for this film. So some people are picking between those two. I say the opposite. I think they're both in similar terrain and they cancel each other out and that's why neither will get nominated.

Jules:

Some people are thinking I'm Still here could surprise for Best Picture. Maybe another foreign film. Like All we Imagine is Light, maybe a summer hit. Super critically acclaimed film, one of the best films of the year Challengers Surprising here. Can we shout out Nosferatu, Nosferatu which stands to get several technical nominations.

Joseph:

If anyone deserves two nominations in terms of distributors, it's Focus Features this year Exactly exactly Technical nominations for Nosferatu.

Jules:

He could easily go from four to five and get that best picture nomination.

Joseph:

I mean, it's again not the kind of film they go for for best picture.

Jules:

Some quote-unquote experts are pitching juror number two, also right juror number two variety is saying they've talked to some members who keep mentioning that movie.

Joseph:

Maybe that movie gets nominated for uh best picture and that's it well where those voters been is where I'm asking, as a farewell to clint eastwood, and that's it. Well, where have those voters been? Is where I'm asking.

Jules:

As a farewell to Clint Eastwood. I think that's within the realm of possibility. It would be a surprise, but that's there. And then I'm going to say that when we're looking at Best Picture, the way that I like to look at it is, if we're coming up with 10 spots, your place to look in order to find the contenders that are going to round that list is pretty simple Look at the films that got nominated for director, for acting, for screenplay.

Jules:

Your last remaining spot should be among those films, and the category that I particularly like to look at to fill that spot of those three branches is actually the screenplay spot, because most of these films should be nominated for screenplay if they're going to be best picture list of 10. Most of those 10 films should be a best screenplay nominee. Maybe leave out one, maybe leave out two, that's about it. So most of them should. So that draws my eye to one contender that I think stands a very good chance of making a late sprint into that fifth screenplay spot. And to boot, it landed a surprise nomination at the Producers Guild, and that is September 5. My money right now is that September 5 will be nominated for best film and best original screenplay, and that's it. And the producers guild will go once again 10 for 10, as they did last year.

Joseph:

I think that's a very compelling list. I think when september 5 got that pga nomination over sing sing and over nickel boys, telling it was very telling and possibly the final nail in the coffin for both of those films, both excellent. Nickel Boys, one of my favorite films of the year. But September 5, I think, might just have come out with enough time to make an impression on some people and I think it's very reasonable and very valid to be putting that at the 10th spot. Again, we've mentioned a bunch of really good titles. September 5th is really tempting. We know that last year for the first time the pga got all 10 nominees. We also know that the pga is on a streak that every single title listed should be nominated for a category yes you already have september 5 in screenplay, as do I.

Joseph:

We both think it's dark horses for film editing. I think I have it in my final pre-dex, but it could end up getting anywhere from two to three and your same picture, and that would be three. I think that's an excellent, excellent choice. But I'm going to go elsewhere. I'm going to go ahead and all year long I've been playing the madman and saying that there is just not enough alignment for Emilia Perez to be the choice for the foreign language film. There's just. If you look at all the foreign language films this isn't like my octopus teacher You're going to get some. A very austere choice, a very a choice that appeals to enough people but sort of. You know, while broadly appealing, doesn't betray the idea that it is a foreign language film and very challenging and not necessarily a populist film. So because of that, I'm gonna say that we're missing the foreign language film winner in best picture, and I'm going to continue jumping on this idea that Fernanda Torres doesn't need very much to win an Oscar. She doesn't need a SAG nomination, she doesn't need a BAFTA nomination. If she is nominated, it doesn't matter who's sweeping the awards. She can win that with just that Golden Globe win.

Joseph:

I'm going to say that in foreign language film, where we could see Emilia Perez nominated, I don't think it will be, but if, if it is nominated, it's not going to walk against. I'm Still here, and neither is the Seed of the Sacred Fig and Walter Salles, I think, is poised to break into that Best Director category. I think Sony Picture Classics is going to pull off Sony Picture Classics Magic a la Amour and get I'm Still here nominated for Best Picture, and that is our foreign language film winner. Emilia Perez poised to win multiple awards, that night song, supporting actress, possibly score. But the award that I think it will not win is foreign language film. I think that award belongs to, possibly I'm Still here, which may also steal the Best Actress award. So I think, by virtue of it being a big winner, I think it needs to be in the biggest category.

Jules:

Well, that's a very interesting take. I think that's a very bold prediction. I certainly think it can be within the realm of possibility. So who's your spoiler? That's tough. I think I'm going to go the safe route and I'm going to say that my spoiler is Sing Sing, which is the movie that I'd be putting on here if there wasn't an option to put September 5. And I was predicting that it wouldn't get nominated for anything. But since I am predicting it for screenplay, you know I'm going to go safe. I'm going to say my spoiler is Sing Sing.

Joseph:

I think I'm going to agree with you. I think the spoiler here is Sing Sing and that it's able to sort of complete its Hail Mary pass and sort of get you know picture couple of acting screenplay. I think that's its best day and maybe it did enough work behind the scenes to accomplish that. You know, never sleep on Plan B, who had to have some kind of Hail Mary plan for the wonderful Nickel Boys who I do not think will make the short list here, but so- and I wonder if Variety is onto something and it's right and it's going to be the farewell nomination to Clint Eastwood.

Joseph:

I don't know, I mean that would be absolutely insane if that is just one nomination and I feel like Variety in true Variety form. You got to sell papers, right?

Speaker 2:

They're always going to push the Oxbow incident nomination where there's one movie that gets nominated for best picture, and that's it.

Joseph:

Of course, the Oxbow incident, a beautiful film, a film that actually really inspired Clint Eastwood, a worthy best picture nominee, in an extended lineup, and so it'd be kind of, you know, poetic to see Clint Eastwood nominated for maybe his last film. Let's hope not Maybe his last film, in a sort of Oxbow incident sort of fashion, but let's face it every year, variety is going to come up with an Oxbow incident nominee. Just one nomination for picture, and that's it.

Jules:

Well, that's been our huge, thorough roundup of the Best Picture nominees and, at large, all the nominees, all the categories for the Academy Awards and the upcoming nominations coming up.

Joseph:

Don't forget. Yeah, you can. I'm sorry, just don't forget. You can see our final predictions on our Twitter page if you follow us at our Twitter.

Jules:

At Academy Anon and you know that was extensive and I can't say we're 100% sure on every category we've predicted but we'll see what happens.

Joseph:

We're only hours away from it happening and we should we should rename this show Academy Cheat Sheet I think Academy Cheat Sheet or Academy Awards, academy Awards, because we're hacking them. But, so if you want to, if you think you can, maybe best your friends or your fellow Oscar watchers. We hope this has been helpful.

Jules:

We'll hope you tune in next time.

Joseph:

Yeah, as we hopefully cover the reaction to the nominees, which hopefully is not too painful. Let's hope so, let's hope.

Jules:

let's hope it's not too heartbreaking or too painful, but in all likelihood every nomination, uh morning, ends up being bittersweet Things you're happy about.

Joseph:

A mixed bag Things that every nomination morning ends up being bittersweet things.

Jules:

You're happy about A mixed bag, things that suck, and so you know we'll see what happens. We're hoping for the best.

Joseph:

Here's hoping some of your favorites get in.

Jules:

Here's hoping some of them do get in. Thanks for tuning in. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode entitled Cool Cats was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. H-t-t-p colon forward slash. Forward slash creativecommonsorg. Forward slash licenses. Forward slash buy. Forward slash 3.0.

Joseph:

Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.