Academy Anonymous

Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions; New Faces & A “Succession” Rematch in Supporting Actor; Colman Tries A Rare Repeat; Craig’s Queer Role Turns Off Brits; Sebastian Stan Doubles Down But May Fall Victim To Himself in Best Actor

• Jules & Joseph • Season 1 • Episode 13

Share episode

On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

  • Kieran Culkin way ahead of his competition
  • Screen Actors Guild snub kills Guy Pearce momentum for Best Picture contender “The Brutalist”
  • The surprising (and heartwarming) rise of scene -stealer Yura Borisov - from Cannes staple to knocking at Oscar’s door for “Anora”
  • Is Stanley Tucci getting lost among his cast mates in “Conclave”?
  • Edward Norton flexing his vocals may just be enough for the upset
  • Clarence Maclin’s chances for a double nomination still alive after unexpected BAFTA support
  • Jeremy Strong able to survive “The Apprentice” controversy & dislike - with or without Sebastian Stan
  • Denzel Washington, ZERO British Academy nods…. still
  • A24 vs. A24 vs. A24 vs. A24 - Too many actor contenders may prove a problem A24 has no solution for
  • SAG snub shows the Sebastian Stan vote-split effect is real
  • “A Different Man” too small? “The Apprentice” to unlikeable?
  • Dual makeup shortlists may be Sebastian Stan’s “ace in the hole”
  • Daniel Craig’s OVERDUE status carries him to surprise first SAG mention
  • Hugh Grant’s devilish “Heretic” turn capitalizing on polarizing “Queer” 
  • Too early to go back-to-back for Colman Domingo
Jules:

hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous, I'm jules and I'm joseph and we're continuing our excursion of the oscar race, our final predictions for the Oscars. Oscar nomination morning is coming up and we've already transitioned into above the line and we're going to do right now the acting categories. So let's jump right into best supporting actor. This is a very sort of consolidated group. I think the race is really up to, or comes down to, six contenders. If I'm being candid, I think that you know, possibly we want to be generous, maybe eight, seven, eight contenders, but I think the top six are the top six and it's really a question of who gets that. That last spot, in my opinion.

Jules:

But let's go over. The screen actors guild released their nominations and the Screen Actors Guild nomination is probably the most important nomination that an actor can get in this award circuit. There is overlap between the Academy and the Screen Actors Guild. However, the Screen Actors Guild nominees are determined by a committee, which is important to remember. We don't know exactly who's part of the committee, but certainly you can bet that there's a portion that are part of the committee that are possibly not Academy members.

Jules:

However, they are a very useful tool, I believe, for actors or we believe for actors to use as a guide as to what films to put on what screeners to watch and what films to consider for acting yeah and acting is the biggest voting block in the academy, so the screen actors guild is one is probably the best thing that you can get but do keep in mind that that screen actors, guild committee and members at large of the sag.

Joseph:

They now do include things like radio artists and artists for other different type of vocal work or work where they're selling their personality and their face. This is not the case for the Academy. For the Academy, you have to have film credits in order to get in there, and not just film credits but a certain type of film standing. You have to be invited. That can be the difference maker between some people making it in and some people being left off.

Jules:

We've certainly seen a transition of let's call it the SAGs becoming a little bit more populist. Yeah, you saw that really play out, I believe in 2021, when House of Gucci managed an ensemble nomination a nomination for Lady Gaga and a nomination for Jared Leto and that movie got close to blank at the Oscars and just managed a makeup nomination, so there's an inclusion in this group recently that, I think, makes the nominations a little bit more lacking the security they used to have.

Jules:

That being said, they do do very well with winners. I think their influence in that regard has increased. So if you win a SAG, the likelihood of you winning the Oscar is very big, and so I think that's different as well. However, just don't lose sight that the committee that's voting for these nominees is not the same committee that was voting for them 10 years ago.

Joseph:

Right.

Jules:

And that's important to keep in mind as we try to maybe possibly make a division between the SAG voter and the Academy Award voter.

Joseph:

Yeah.

Jules:

They're not necessarily synonymous, and so in the best supporting actor category, the sag's nominated kieran colkin a real pain who's a huge favorite to win. You are boris of anora, who's done incredibly well and managed to get nominated at all the main precursors the golden globe, the sag and the bafta. I believe he won some important critical awards as well, and that has been sort of a surprise how well he's done, considering that that film is very, you know, it's an ensemble piece opposite Mikey Madison, who is the central figure, and initially I thought that the film would have a hard time differentiating its different supporting characters because they all have a spotlight and they all do really well.

Jules:

But that film certainly leaves enough room for an actor like Yura Borisov to shine. The film really goes out of its way to spotlight that character, to really shape that character. He has really lingering, memorable moments. So in a way it's not surprising that he's done as well as he's done, but still somewhat surprising.

Joseph:

Yeah, I agree.

Jules:

The SAG nomination, I think was huge, and the BAFTA nomination was huge, and so I think Jura is pretty much locked for a nomination, if you want me to be completely honest in my opinion. And then someone that I think is completely locked is Edward Norton, for a complete unknown. He's playing a real life figure. These kinds of acting categories tend to favor actors playing real people, real historical figures. Um, that you know of, that you've read, of that you've uh, been aware of. Um, he's playing Pete Seeger. He's playing Pete Seeger. He's playing Pete Seeger. He does a really great job in the role. You can certainly see voters attracted to his work.

Joseph:

He does his own singing he does his own singing as well.

Jules:

He's an actor's actor. He's going to reap several nominations. He already has, I believe, three or four.

Joseph:

Yeah.

Jules:

Watch out for him to be a favorite to spoil Kieran Culkin possibly.

Joseph:

And he's the vet here too.

Jules:

He's the veteran. Like I said, we need, we should have a veteran, at least one veteran, in every category, and so Edward. And so Edward Norton is locked and loaded. Jeremy Strong was nominated at the SAG for the Apprentice, which was a surprise inclusion, but if you've seen the movie it's not that surprising. It's a very showy role. Jeremy Strong does a great job. The Apprentice as a whole, I think, stands to surprise a lot of people.

Joseph:

What was surprising was that he was listed at SAG without Sebastian Stan.

Jules:

That was a little surprising, but we'll get into that when we get into actor, because there's aspects of that snub that are not as surprising.

Joseph:

But maybe he has enough of a reputation and enough experience and enough of a filmography to survive sort of as a lone nominee. It could be.

Jules:

It could be. In any regard, I think he's in a very good position to land a nomination. I won't call him a lock yeah in fact, I could even go so far as to say that in my predicted five, if there were to be a miss, I would imagine it to be jeremy strong, but we'll get to that in a minute. And the last nominee was a very surprising inclusion of jonathan baileyicked. You know, I really am not thinking of Jonathan Bailey as a contender for this race.

Joseph:

Not very viable right now.

Jules:

No, I think, if anything, the Jonathan Bailey nomination certainly shows that the SAG committee was very enamored with Wicked. Yes, but the fact that Jonathan Bailey has missed almost everywhere else sort of feels a little bit, dare I say, indulgent of this uh awards body I really thought that were wicked to be a huge popular choice.

Joseph:

At the sag, the individual to read this nomination and possibly steal a spot was goldblum right?

Jules:

who's never been nominated? Who has?

Joseph:

never been nominated and he's jeff goldblum, right. But the fact that it's jonathan bailey Bailey over Jeff Goldblum and the committee saw them both because they're in the same movie has me thinking that the Jonathan Bailey isn't just not much of a tried and true contender to reap a spot here, but that there's possibly sort of a red herring McGovern, as Hitchcock would say, with the dominance that Wicked had at this awards group the fact that it got those five nominations four without stunt, but one of them is Jonathan Bailey.

Joseph:

There's got to be something there where you sort of start to pump the brakes and say, well, how popular can Wicked really be at any of the other places?

Jules:

jonathan bailey, for example and we'll get into it didn't even make the bafta long list right, exactly, and he's british and he's british, um, and so that's something that goes along with what we were saying at the beginning of this segment that there's a populism to this voting body, to this, to this committee, these committees that have been chosen as of late, that I hesitate to be 100% sure that the Academy feels exactly the same way, and Wicked Landing more nominations than people would think seems like an example of that. I thought that was a little strange. That being said, he's the fifth nominee. I thought that was a little strange. That being said, he's the fifth nominee, and so, of those five, I think those four are very strong contenders.

Jules:

People who didn't make the list, surprisingly, were Clarence Macklin for Sing Sing.

Jules:

In fact, sing Sing did very poor at the SAG.

Jules:

I had expected it to do a lot better. It only landed on a nomination for Coleman colman domingo, which is a vulnerable candidate, and we'll get to that when we talk about this actor, clarence macklin, missing here, when someone like ira borosov, who's probably an actor that not many people in the not many actors in the committee and in the uh actors union are very well are very aware of him making it on here over, someone like Clarence Macklin, to me, is a big uh sign, um, as uh, in terms of which, uh, newbie quote unquote is more uh favored Um. So I always had my doubts about Clarence Macklin, especially knowing that he stood a chance to be a part of the writing credit, uh, the writing team that gets a nomination for screenplay. If that were to happen, the snub here is really attention calling to me. Really there's no reason why, if colman domingo is present at least, even if there's no best picture, best ensemble nomination, if he's present, colman domingo, there's really no excuse to not have macklin on this list.

Joseph:

He's not on it and Very odd, very odd to be seeing again five nominations for Wicked, including Jonathan Bailey, and one nomination for Sing Sing only for Coleman Domingo Right, very odd.

Jules:

Yeah, and the other thing I will say is the biggest snub here was Guy Pearce, for the Brutalist. Guy Pearce is one of our greatest actors who has, shockingly, never been nominated for an Oscar. I think that goes a long way into positioning him as a strong candidate for the Oscar lineup for Best Supporting Actor. That being said, I did predict that he would get snubbed from the Best Supporting Actor lineup.

Jules:

He's the antagonist of that movie, he's the villainous part part in that movie and I wasn't sure how much the committee, which I think again, tends to favor things a little bit more what's the right word I don't want to say safe, but certainly things that are a little bit more accessible. I always had an idea that actors in that committee, um, would feel a little bit, you know more, would feel distant with the piece of the Brutalist yeah alienated.

Jules:

And that's what happened. He got snubbed. But I don't expect Guy Pearce to get snubbed in the Brutalist. In fact, his snub at the SAG and Felicity Jones snub reminded me a lot of the Master and Amy Adams snub and Joaquin Phoenix's snub. But uh, philip Seymour Hoffman still managed to get a nomination. Similarly, adrian Brody has a nomination too at the SAG. So I think Guy Pearce some people are tempted right now to sort of jump ship because he didn't make the SAG, but he didn't make the SAG over Jonathan Bailey. That's too extreme.

Jules:

You know that has to tell you something that you know. That's a weird sort of thing that occurred there. He has the BAFTA nomination.

Joseph:

Yeah, which is the most important thing, he had the BAFTA bounce back. So if you miss this list and you're already referencing some people when you start listing the individuals who got into the BAFTA. Those individuals of a BAFTA bounce back are still in a very good spot.

Jules:

Correct, and so I think Guy Pearce is still really, really strong. I really positioned him only beneath Kieran Culkin and Edward Norton, to be honest, and so, in my humble opinion, those are the six actors to look at to make this race, to make this lineup, and it's really a question as to will Jeremy Strong get snubbed from Best Supporting Actor for someone like Clarence Macklin in Sing Sing? And the reason I bring up Jeremy Strong is because there's still something about this list that includes Kieran Culkin that maybe sits a little weird for me. I'm not 100% positive, considering how well known they both are for Succession, how voters are going to feel by including them both in the same category, both in the same category so soon after Succession. I'm just not sure that I 100% feel that it's going to happen. But it's strange.

Joseph:

It makes me pause does Jeremy Strong have enough favorability among Academy members to be sort of a lone acting nominee? If he doesn't get any of the text, he'll be completely by himself. To his credit, he is playing a real life figure. We don't have too many of those in this category, and so that-.

Jules:

That helps a lot.

Joseph:

That helps a lot. That might be a factor that puts him through the finish line, but I think you're right. I would say most of those people. I think the one individual that I would never, ever sleep on is Stanley Tucci, right.

Jules:

Yeah, outside of those six contenders, the other people that to keep an eye on that, I feel are much further away from this group is Stanley Tucci, for Conclave, who I think has not managed to get any nomination besides maybe possibly the Critics' Choice I'm not sure Bafta Longlist the Bafta Longlist I know he got cited at the Australian Academy International Academy.

Jules:

And the other person was Denzel Washington, who started off the year as being what many thought was the favorite for this race.

Jules:

I thought you and I always were skeptical because Denzel had just recently been nominated for Macbeth in 2021. And, as we discussed in earlier episodes on this podcast this season, that always is a factor for actors, whether when they're being considered by other actors for their next nomination how long ago did I just nominate them, how much time has passed? What work have they done in that amount of time that has passed? That goes into their thinking about whether or not to include them on their list, and so I always thought it was a little strange to have Denzel Washington in Gladiator 2, unless, of course, he was going to win for the part, which was still unknown once the movie came out and was sort of underperformed critically, and once the movie was seen, I think it was clear that he wasn't going to win for this movie. I think there's some problems with the way that character is drawn in the film, which I think don't help his case, and so you know he's sort of dropped way down, but you and I saw that coming from the very beginning.

Jules:

Um so we weren't surprised by that, and that's about it. Um, I thought in a in maybe different circumstances, peter Zarskaard, who's very good in September five, the entire cast is great. Uh, we might've had a better opportunity. But, um, along with the film being too silent and and that his part is kind of brief, um, or there isn't a big, you know sort of flashy quote-unquote oscar moment in the piece, um, and that's a similar thing. That is also true for stanley tucci and conclave. He's good in his part, the entire ensemble is great, but I he's sort of competing with the rest of the ensemble in that movie.

Jules:

Um, all of who do strong work. I'm not sure that you're going to come away from the film thinking that, or it's going to be unanimous, that majority of people think that stanley tucci was the strongest supporting character in that film. You're going to have people who have different favorites. I think that goes against his case and why he hasn't done better in the race this year. And that's the opposite of what's happened, what's happened with Euro. Most people can come away feeling like he is the their favorite supporting character, supporting actor in that film.

Joseph:

Yeah.

Jules:

That's something that I think really hurts Stanley Tucci and I think is one pivotal reason why he won't break into that that lineup at the end. And again, the bafta nominees were kieran colkin, guy pierce euro borosov, edward norton, jeremy strong and clarence macklin. The top six, um, the five should come from the top six. In my opinion and you know, because I feel a certain way about sebastian stan and the apprentice which we're going to get into when we get into actor my opinion is that we'll have the four kieran, edward uh, guy and yura, and that last spot will be jeremy strong and he won't be by himself. Um, and the person that will be left out is clarence macklin for sing sing um, I like that. He's playing a real person and I uh like that. I I'm predicting that he won't get in by himself. And there's also some kind of strange sort of pathos aspect to this film, because you could, the film um works for you to feel a sense of pity for Roy Cohn, which I think is going to be in his benefit.

Jules:

And the other thing that is hard for me to see is I'm not sure that I'm seeing a list that includes both Yura Borisov and Clarence Macklin. I think they occupy a similar space of being actors that are not very well known. I think this is Clarence Macklin's maybe first acting credit. It's not Yura. Yura is a great foreign actor, a Russian actor. He was absolutely wonderful in Compartment no 6. But it's certainly the first sort of wide exposure that he's had. So I have a hard time seeing a list that's going to include two actors that I think occupy a similar space of invisibility and actors getting to know them for the first time. I like someone a little bit more known and more familiar. In that last spot, and since I feel that Yura is such a lock or such a likely nominee, I should say I'm left with Jeremy Strong, and so those are my five Kieran Culkin, a Real Pain. Edward Norton, a Complete Unknown. Guy Pearce, the Brutalist. Euro Borossov, onora. And Jeremy Strong, the Apprentice.

Joseph:

I think those are my five. I went five for five with you. So Kieran Culkin, a Real Pain. Edward Norton, a Complete Unknown. Guy Pearce, the Brutalist. Jeremy Strong, the Apprentice. And, despite all my hesitation, you know you're a Borosov for a Nora, and I think you're right, despite you know Tucci, you know not getting much traction. It's still possible, but I guess he's just getting lost between everyone else of the ensemble, unlike Isabella Rossellini, who stands out as the only female in that ensemble.

Jules:

And also someone who's never been nominated.

Joseph:

And someone who's never been nominated, and so that last spot, the spoiler excuse me should be Clarence. Yes, I agree and it could still happen if Sing Sing has a great day. It's just that every sign is pointing toward it being a not-so-great day.

Jules:

Right, he's also my spoiler, Clarence Macklin. And so that's our dive into Best Supporting Actor and our final predictions.

Joseph:

We're finally by Best Actor. So let's take a look at Best Actor and what we're working with.

Jules:

All right. First let's mention the SAG nominees Adrian Brody for the Brutalist, rafe Fiennes for Conclave, Timothee Chalamet Complete Unknown Coleman Domingo Sing Sing and Daniel Craig for Queer, and the BAFTA nominees were Adrian Brody, ray Fiennes, timothy Chalamet, coleman Domingo, sebastian Stan for the Apprentice and Hugh Grant for Heretic.

Joseph:

And if you look at the long list, the most notable name not on there is Daniel Craig for Que, for queer right previous bafta nominee, by the way. And you also had def patel for monkey man on the long list, as well as jude law for firebrand kingsley, benedir for bob marley one love, and I think that's everyone that bafta had mentioned right.

Jules:

and so the daniel craig snub from the baFTA is indicative, it's evident. It might be evidentiary. I mean, however, he had been nominated at the BAFTAs before.

Joseph:

Yes, something not to lose sight of For James Bond, I believe.

Jules:

Yeah, possibly, and he did get that SAG nomination.

Joseph:

Which, let's face it, if there was one film that we thought was going to, abhor the SAG committee. It was going to be queer, and so we were very surprised and happy to see it included there.

Jules:

Yeah, we thought the SAG committee would not like that film. I think it goes to the strength of possibly wanting to nominate Daniel Craig already. He's an actor who's been working for a very long time. He has a very good performance in queer. Um, it's certainly, uh, an actor who's stretching himself in this part. I think actors will appreciate that.

Joseph:

Um, admire that also had a bit of a sort of you know renaissance with knives out and that whole franchise at the same time, sort of saying goodbye to the james bond franchise. And then you, he kind of steps out with this role at Venice Right.

Jules:

And the problem with Queer has always been that it may not be a film that many voters are going to possibly like. Sit through or sit through. William S Burroughs doesn't necessarily do well with the Academy either. David Cronenberg's Naked Lunch didn't do well with the Academy, despite being very critically acclaimed that year. So that's always been a worry with Daniel Craig, and I think you saw that play out at the BAFTA and I don't think that's a good sign. I think most people interpret that as a bad sign.

Jules:

Like I said, I think the audience of that movie is going to be more limited. I think what's going to get Daniel Craig over the hump if he does make it over the hump is the urge to want to nominate him. We also talked about in our Best Actor episode previously, if you want to check that out, how unlikely it is that three actors from A24 show up. Coleman Domingo is an A24 film, daniel Craig is an A24 film and Adrian Brody is an A24 film Heretic too, exactly and Heretic is as well. At the SAG all three did show up, which would seem promising that that could happen at the Academy. However, we would urge you to pause and Check out our episode.

Joseph:

Yeah, so he's also by himself too. He's also by himself.

Jules:

Never a good thing, never a sure thing. Going to his benefit is that a lot of the other actors who could replace him are also A24 films. So Sebastian Stan won a golden globe for a different man, which we called and uh, he that's also an a 24 film. Hugh Grant, who's done surprisingly well with precursors, is an a 24 film. So it could just be the case that three a 24, three men from a 24 films do get in, because that's just the majority of contenders are a 24 film.

Jules:

Um, but you and I mentioned in our best actor episode that there is somebody who perfectly fits the bill to replace one of the a24 men and is not an a24 film and has had a great year and has a terrific performance, um, that that certainly should be cited and could be cited, and that's Sebastian Stan for the Apprentice, and he did get a BAFTA nomination, which you know I thought was definitely going to happen. He's slowly been climbing that ladder of consensus, right, and he's playing a real-life figure, right, you know, albeit, you know, a controversial one and certainly the timing of it is very unfortunate, but he's terrific in that film.

Joseph:

And it played fantastically overseas internationally. I mean it was, I think, more than $10 million, I think, overseas. So I think we're close to that. So it played like gangbusters to no surprise the British Academy, Irish voters. I'm sure it played well in France and even in Canada, I think it played well. So I think all that is really going for it. If American voters aren't going to vote for it, as you saw with BAFTA when it placed in top 10 for best film, international voters are going to vote for it.

Jules:

I agree 100% and I would think it's a very worthy nominee, the caveat being that, in the event that the Academy and the Actors Branch wanted to cite Sebastian Stan's work without stepping into those tricky waters of the Apprentice, they could opt to spotlight him for A Different man.

Joseph:

Which is a Berlin-winning performance.

Jules:

A Golden Globe-winning performance.

Joseph:

Yes, Produced by Christine Vachon and about an actor.

Jules:

Yes, and so all that's going for it. What isn't going for it is, again, it doesn't really solve our A24 problem, right, the only since? We're of the opinion I think most people are that Adrian Brody, ray Fiennes and Timothee Ch we're of the opinion, I think most people are, that adrian brody, ray fines and timothy chalamet are in locks, basically yeah are complete locks.

Jules:

You really only have two spots open, and if you put two way 24 actors, then we're not solving the issue. We already have adrian brody, so there's really should be only room for one more. You're going to have to choose between Coleman Domingo, daniel Craig or Sebastian Stan, for a different man.

Joseph:

So we're kind of saying that just the two spots are up in the air, that those other spots are locked up, I think, and I will go even further to say pardon me that really those are the six contenders.

Joseph:

That are between those six Exactly. Well, I would say that Just as a side note. Probably every other acting category has more contenders than this one and has a little bit more open spots and leeway, so this makes this category possibly a little less interesting. But what I will say in sort of defense of that is that this is a category where it's going to be very interesting to see who wins.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

Those three spots are locked in and, like I said, we're just guessing the final two and there's not a whole lot of good people positioned for it. But when it comes time to deciding the winner, that's where we're going to have fun. This is one of the few categories where it's going to be more fun predicting the winner than predicting the nominees.

Jules:

Right, and we went over that a little bit in our actor episode, so check that out, or our post-Golden Globes episode.

Jules:

I should say and so check that out if you get a chance. So these six contenders, we have to come up with five, and the smart call is to not do two A24 films. The smart call would technically be to leave out the person who's in a film that stands to not be liked by a portion of the academy, and that's daniel craig and queer, which is very unfortunate because he's very good in the film and certainly deserves a mention in this lineup. That being said, though, sing sing, I think, is weaker than people think well it's.

Joseph:

It's been shown to be weaker than everyone, right?

Jules:

right um, but he did get that SAG nomination by himself right and that BAFTA nomination, which I think people perceive as being, you know, a good sign that he will definitely get nominated. I think he has a good chance, but I would not be surprised at all.

Joseph:

I hate the idea that he is running in the same category back to back and I sort of quoted a couple of people who did this and his best comparison was Johnny Depp in 2003 to 2004 for Pirates of the Caribbean and Finding Neverland. But the prospect of Coleman Domingo getting in to the same category back to back by himself is very preoccupying.

Joseph:

It should be very preoccupying. And I also go ahead and remind you that Coleman Domingo, who's a very versatile actor and a fantastic actor, and he was going to win at some point he is going to be playing Michael Jackson's father in the recent future, in the upcoming future, and so the prospect of Coleman Domingo being nominated three years in a row, if he gets nominated this year, is very real. And again, someone who did that is someone like renee zellweger, on her way to that eventual win, to cold mountain right, but again she was.

Joseph:

She did it with bridget jones in a screenplay movie right. She did it with chicago and a best picture movie. And she did it in cold mountain where she got in with her co-star jude law and a couple of other nominations. So sing sing is really holding on desperately to that adapted screenplay nomination. But imagine if it doesn't get an eye for adapted screenplay. Coleman's chances, I think, are shakier than most people give him credit for yeah, I 100 agree with%.

Jules:

Agree with that. I think again, what's going for him is that maybe his biggest competition is someone like Daniel Craig in Queer. But other than that, I really don't think Hugh Grant's going to happen for Heretic. I don't think it's.

Joseph:

Again by himself, right by himself.

Jules:

You know it's not a genre that I think has the easiest time getting into these lead acting categories. Although we are seeing it this year happen with Demi Moore for the Substance, I doubt it happens for both lead, for both leads.

Joseph:

Yeah, exactly how. How far can they stretch that genre bias?

Jules:

And so we're really talking about those six actors and it's really a toss up. You know, would I be surprised to see Sebastian Stan make it in for a different man because they opted to not want to support Donald Trump or just the character, the person of Donald Trump in this lineup? I can't see it, but I think it's unlikely because I think the foreign block of the Academy, the Actors Branch, will support that performance.

Joseph:

They're going to take it as an opportunity to shove it down his throat.

Jules:

Yeah and I think they're going to um get him in here and I think it's a very worthy uh, worthy intentions and worthy nomination um my only question really is again he just has such a perfect other film because it won berlin, so some of those voters saw it there.

Joseph:

He's with or not to ryan's, so it certainly has gonna appeal to international voters. Adam is from uk, I believe. So, like I said, what I definitely feel confident in is in this lineup we will see a sebastian stan spot.

Jules:

Yeah, there's only one spot now some people argue and I guess it's worth contemplating, that maybe he was left off the SAG list not necessarily because they were, you know, trepidatious of mentioning him for the Apprentice, but rather that he sort of vote split with the Apprentice and A Different man, and I think that's a possibility. I think hurting that as a possibility is that if that were to happen again, we're left with three, 24 actors.

Joseph:

I mean, I would never have thought that a different man was going to be a film that appeals to SAG. But I would have said the same thing about queer too, and it did show up there, right.

Jules:

So I think that is a real thing, that can happen and the uh SAG can go five for five. I think that can happen. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility. But I feel that Sebastian Stan had such a great year and he's in two good films. One is a great film, a Different man and he gives two very good performances. One, in my opinion, is a great performance in the Apprentice, and so I really feel like actors are going to want to spotlight that.

Joseph:

He just sort of deserves it, and we've talked about again that cycle and so he's, you know, put in the work in franchises like Marvel, but he's put in the work on TV too. But he was sort of introduced to the Academy already in the. Academy Award winning film I Tonya. So it's really you know his time.

Jules:

Yeah, I agree, and so I think he's going to happen. And so, outside of those four in my last spot, it's really tough. I hate making this decision because I'd love to see Daniel Craig in here for queer, but I'm going to say that Daniel Craig gets left off and Coleman Domingo gets in for Sing Sing, partly aided by the fact that he's playing a real life figure, maybe not a notoriously well-known figure, but it's still someone real and certainly a film whose message the Academy would want to champion with a nomination. So that's what I'm thinking right now. My spoiler is definitely Daniel Craig.

Joseph:

I think we see things a lot alike. So of course you have your three locks Chalamet, Fiennes and Brody, I think. In fourth is the Sebastian Stan slot, and I think the advantage has to go to the film with his co-star, I believe, going to be nominated for playing Roy Cohn and I think a potential makeup nomination, even though a different man is listed there as well.

Joseph:

So he wouldn't be by himself If you decide for a different man either way a different man makes that list and it's looking pretty good too, but I'm going to go ahead and do the bio thing and put him in for the Apprentice as well. And then my fifth spot. You know, I totally see where you're going with that, but I really think it's going to be an all newbie list and they're going to give it to Daniel Craig. I just think he's putting in enough work again. Saying goodbye to bond, doing the knives out thing, of course, hugh Grant, there is a reminder to me, sort of that they're not going to nominate you until they feel that they have to nominate you.

Joseph:

You know Hugh Grant should have been in for Flores, foster Jenkins could have been in for Paddington 2, could have been in for About a Boy, but they're just going to wait for Hugh Grant to be in the perfect movie, I think, and so that logic would work against Daniel Craig, and it makes more sense to put Coleman Domingo being able to go back-to-back nominations in the same category. He has so many interesting, noteworthy projects coming out in the recent future. So with that, I would probably say that Coleman Domingo can't break that streak. He can't go double like Tom Hanks or Cameron Crowe or Rene Zorger. He won't be able to do it, and so I'm going to put Koma Domingo as my spoiler.

Jules:

Okay, perfect, and that's our recap of our final predictions for Best Actor. All right, thanks for tuning in. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode entitled Cool Cats was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons.

Joseph:

Buy forward, slash 3.0 disclaimer the academy anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the academy of motion picture arts and sciences.