Academy Anonymous

Oscar Season 2024–2025; Final Predictions; Crowded Best Supporting Actress Race ENDS With Few Certainties And Several Dark Horses Lurking

• Jules & Joseph • Season 1 • Episode 14

Share episode

On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

  • A “Perfect” LOCK - Saldana reaps reward for years of work in mainstream Hollywood fare with demanding, delicate dance in “Emilia Perez”
  • A VULNERABLE kind of “Perfect” - Ariana Grande hits everywhere so far, but is her turn in “Wicked” on par with the dramatic performances her fellow musicians gave in order to find Oscar success?
  • Three Is A Crowd:  vote-splitting between too many musical performances.
  • Two Of A Kind: the Gomez-Grande parallels that hurt both
  • Selena Gomez bid undone by a Screen Actors Guild snub
  • Isabella Rossellini cashes in her “WAY PAST DUE” ticket with Best Picture contender “Conclave”
  • Felicity Jones fights for veteran’s spot, but is “The Brutalist” running time hurting her chances?
  • Jamie Lee-Curtis “afterglow” nomination NOT IMPOSSIBLE - but far from sure-thing going it alone.
  • “SAG Remembers” - Danielle Deadwyler campaign marches on after Actors Guild refuses to forget egregious snub for “Till”
  • Monica Barbaro sings her way into the category with scene-stealing performance as Joan Baez in “A Complete Unknown”
  • Margaret Qualley - “nepo-baby” & coattail nominee OR rising starlet building bridges with the right indie/international/art-house cinema insiders (Lanthimos, Denis, Tarantino, Coen). 
Joseph:

welcome back to academy anonymous to all you oscar addicts out there who are eagerly awaiting nominations. We're breaking down our final predictions, giving you a forecast as to what that's going to look like, maybe spelling some trouble ahead for some contenders.

Jules:

Okay, and let's move now to best supporting actress. This is a weird category. I feel like it's been the weirdest acting category all year. It's been the one that has made me scratch my head the most, the one that I've gone back and forth sort of thinking about who the hell can be the final five in this category. It's the strangest category. I don't know if you feel the same way.

Joseph:

This category is like a path full of landmines. It is absolutely impossible to walk a straight path in this category. I give my props to absolutely anyone who gets this category 100% perfect.

Jules:

Yeah, I agree.

Joseph:

There are just so many potholes in almost every individual's campaign that it's really going to be, you know, in my opinion, just hairs and straws between them and who gets, who makes the final five and who gets left off yeah, I agree.

Jules:

So let's start with naming who got nominated. At the sag, it was zoe saldana for milia perez, ariana grande for wicked, danielle Deadwyler for the piano lesson, jamie lee curtis for the last show girl and monica barbara, complete Unknown. And at the BAFTA, it was Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez, ariana Grande for Wicked, isabella Rossellini for Conclave, felicity Jones for the Brutalist, jamie Lee Curtis for the Last Showgirl and Selena Gomez for Emilia Perez.

Joseph:

I just want to take a minute here to sort of congratulate myself without sounding too a minute here to sort of congratulate myself without sounding too. I don't want to brag, but we had called the SAG Awards as a moment where we're going to see just how locked in this category is compared to what you know other individuals experts, pundits were sort of pegging it to be. We had said that that SAG category, daniel deadweiler can stage a comeback there.

Joseph:

That's really massive yeah we said that this category is in desperate need of some real people and lo and behold, joan baez was nominated.

Joseph:

Monica barbara, for her portrayal of joan Baez, was nominated. Exactly. We sort of you know we're leaving breadcrumbs. That that's where we saw this race heading. We have that in our episode Breaking Down Supporting Actress from a while back. If you want to check it out, check it out please. But we also said that this category needs a veteran, and at a place like SAG, where they're going to snub Felicity Jones and you had said that Guy Pearce was going to have a tough time getting in thereicity jones did too. But lo and behold, you have jamie lee curtis nominated, right right for the last show, girl.

Joseph:

So I just want to say that, as tricky as this category is, I think that we've done a pretty good job sort of being in the money as to where this race is going to go, and to that point I'll go further and say when that bafta long list came out. And again, you can quote this on any of the episodes the episode that we recorded about BAFTA long list a few weeks ago as well.

Joseph:

I knew that Jamie Lee Curtis's name on that long list was not a jury save. Jamie Lee Curtis is beloved by that group and she stood a very good chance of being nominated. It was weird to not see Pamela Anderson there, but that's just how much they love Jamie Lee Curtis, and so, again, I think we're sort of a little bit ahead of the curve here in terms of where this race is headed Now. Granted, both these groups are not the Oscars. The Oscars does things differently, so we can take these nominations as you know revealing, but not necessarily set in stone, right.

Jules:

And to that point I would say there's only really one contender that I agree, we could say is likely set in stone, and that's Zoe Saldana. And even then, you know, considering that there's been some controversy as to whether she's lead in the movie, or supporting in the movie, you know there's still a chance. As always, Aldana ends up in the lead category.

Joseph:

Oh, wow.

Jules:

Which would be shocking to a lot of people.

Joseph:

Right.

Jules:

You know people have been spelling some concerns about that all the way Do I think it's going to happen in the end? No, I don't. So I would say that you know she is the closest thing to a lock.

Joseph:

Right and I will back that up. I will say that I completely agree and if you break it down, it's always sort of you know, that's the. That's always been the writing on the wall, right? Why? Because of the movie she's in. Why? Because what she's asked to do in the film and what she delivers for it, unlike, possibly, you know, other individuals, but also the idea that Zoe Zaldana she's been at the Academy Awards, sort of being the face of Star Trek and the face of Avatar and the face of Guardians of the Galaxy. She's just primed for what is going to be her first nomination, possibly her first win, the way she won that Golden Globe, and I just think that it just makes so much sense Again, the writing has been on the wall for a while as to why this is the lock in this category.

Jules:

Right. And so let's get to the second contender that I think most people perceive as a lock but I have always had my questions about, and that's Ariana Grande for Wicked. And that's because, as we mentioned in our supporting actress episode, um, if you want to check that out, please do. It's rare to have two musicals, two different musicals, nominated in the same acting category. The last time that happened was in the 1980s. Um, it's not something that happens often. They already have a sure-found musical contender here in Zoe Saldana, for immediate pairs. That's not to say that there aren't cases where a musical that has two supporting performances they both get nominated, for example, chicago, from the same movie. From the same movie, exactly. For example, chicago, queen Latifah and Catherine Zeta-Jones. I'm not talking about that. I'm talking about two different musicals being nominated in the same acting category, right.

Joseph:

That's rare, you don't see that often victor victoria and here's the caveat you know victor victoria nominated multiple places, including actress for julie andrews, charles durning the only films nomination but those are the first nominations for both those individuals who had put in 10 plus years in the industry by that point right exactly.

Jules:

the other thing to look at for ariana grande andicked is that she's predominantly known as a musician, not as an actor. She's had a few credits for, you know, nickelodeon shows that she's been a part of, I believe, but that's not what the Academy would consider. You know, serious work. The only other film credit she really has is Don't Look Up, where she played a version of herself in a very brief. So, by all intents and purposes, this is her first feature film where she's playing a character. It's a huge success. I don't take anything away from that. However, when you're talking about musicians getting nominated in an acting category for what is their first film or one of their very first films, number one, it's a small list of people, and number two, there are certain things that go along with those contenders that I'm not seeing here.

Joseph:

for Ariana Grande, yeah, there's a certain pattern.

Jules:

And the pattern is number one these musicians get in, but their film also landed somewhere above the line besides Best Picture. So let's say the film landed another acting nomination alongside this musician, or the film, more often than not, landed a director nomination or a screenplay nomination. Screenplay, a lot of times, a lot of times, screenplay they didn't get in by themselves, they got in with something. And since the Cynthia Erivo is in a more competitive category and we'll talk more at length about this when we get to actress, since she's in a more competitive category and also, like we mentioned earlier in one of our episodes, that she was recently nominated, just five years ago, for Harriet for Best Actress, those are factors that might really go against her getting nominated for Wicked and because, uh, wicked doesn't stand to, uh, get a best director nomination, just the breadcrumbs aren't leading in that path.

Jules:

Um, and it's unlikely to get a, in our opinion, a screenplay nomination, based on the fact that, as we went over, musicals have been doing poor in that category and they already have a musical in the event that they want to exactly in the event that they want to let a musical into that category and in general we have wicked has to go against the media pair is the musical which just seems to us to be very clearly the more favored musical by the group at large, putting all those things into account. So we're talking about Wicked missing best director, we're talking about Wicked missing best screenplay and now we're talking about Wicked very possibly missing best actress.

Joseph:

Yeah.

Jules:

Which means that in the event that Ariana Grande was to get into the supporting actress category, she would be getting in by herself, right, and that is not something that happens. That's very rare. If we look at past musicians that have gotten nominated, they're predominantly known as musicians and they got nominated for their acting work. We have a small list, or a very particular small group Among them, mary J Blige for Mudbound. That film got nominated for a screenplay adapted. It might have even been a Best Picture nominee if they had 10 spots that year. They didn't, and it's a role that's asked a little bit of Mary J Blige that you wouldn't have expected. She's playing the mother figure in the 1940s rural South.

Jules:

The film deals with themes of racism. At some point she is grieving her son being the victim of a lynching, so that's all things that you're not typically seeing someone like Mary J Blige undertaking. That's something that helped her greatly and again, she didn't get in by herself. Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls didn't have a musical career, but she was an American Idol and this was so. She was very much trying to carve a path within music before she got nominated. However, when she gets in for Dreamgirls, she does not get in by herself, she gets in with Eddie Murphy in Supporting Actor, and she'd go on to win that category. As we all know, we have lady gaga and a star is born, which is probably the best example of someone recently who, uh, got nominated and was mostly known for her musical prowess. Um, and she got nominated for a star is born, which was a huge best picture contender but, more importantly, got nominated for screenplay and two other acting nominations as well, she wasn't there by herself.

Jules:

Diana Ross in Lady Sings the Blues was nominated for Lead Actress. I think that's one of her very first 1972,.

Joseph:

I think it was one of. I think it was her first, actually, exactly.

Jules:

And there she's playing the tragic figure of billy holiday. Uh which it was also not for best screenplay. Um and uh, that's again work that you're not expecting diana ross to be doing, playing this figure with such trauma, such tragedy. Um, you have mark wolberg and the departed who sort of began his oh, wow, yeah, his career.

Joseph:

But how many years did mark put in the industry exactly? Was able to exactly, that's another that's another, that's another thing.

Jules:

That, um, I want to point out, uh, that certain musicians do end up getting nominated after they put in some years of work. Um, and uh, he does get in again with a film. That's, you know the departed. Um the best picture winner, share, she gets her first nomination for silkwood. Um, that's actually, you know the Departed the Best Picture winner, cher, she gets her first nomination for Silkwood. That's actually a biographical film by. Karen Silkwood. It's a dramatic film.

Joseph:

Not her first film though, because, like I said no, exactly yes, but it's her first nomination. But her first film was really well lauded. It was a Robert Altman film.

Jules:

She's working with a bunch of different actors and she got spotlighted by a bunch of critic awards as well exactly, but she ends up getting in for her first nomination for this biographical film, again seeing her outside of her comfort zone yeah, dramatically um and playing a real life figure. That is also something that helped her get that nomination and eventually she would win for moonstruck. Frank sinatra gets his first nomination from here, for from here to eternity that's the best best picture behemoth um, and he gets uh nominated alongside that film right judy garland in a star is born um.

Jules:

We have dora's day and pillow talk um another film that got nominated above the line. It wasn't just dora's day screenplay.

Joseph:

I believe I also for a pillow talk.

Jules:

Will Smith gets nominated for Ali, his first nomination.

Joseph:

And again, he really worked for that nomination too, because by that point he had become an entire sort of summer industry right with Bad. Boys and Men in Black.

Jules:

Exactly, and he ends up not getting in by himself because Jon Voler gets nominated for the rose where she's portraying um janice joplin, again fictionalized version exactly a fictionalized version of janice, of janice joplin.

Jules:

Um, again, that greatly helped the fact that she was sort of portraying that figure, and she also doesn't get in by herself because she gets another actor nominated alongside her. Um, uh, maybe you can count barbara streisand and funny girl, even though she has she started her roots in in musical theater. You have a bobby darren getting nominated for best supporting actor for captain human md, which I also got an above the line nomination for screenplay. Ben crosby gets in for going my way.

Joseph:

That film gets above the line nominations best picture nomination exactly, and also ben crosby, by that point had already been in, I think, holiday Inn a few years beforehand Right, which was a huge commercial hit for the industry.

Jules:

Exactly. And then you have someone like, for example, Peggy Lee in Pete Kelly's Blues. I believe she was the film's only nomination for Best Supporting Actress. I think it might have been. I don't think it was her first film, but she was playing a real life figure. She was playing a blues singer, Rose Hopkins, and there's sort of a tragic element to the role, but there again she's playing a real life person, something outside of what you would imagine Peggy Lee doing. You have someone like Burl Ivis getting nominated and winning for the Big Country. Again, the film was only nomination, but he had already had amassed some film credits. He was in East of Eden, he was in Cat on a Hot Tin Roof.

Joseph:

Both of those, I think, nominated for Best Picture by that point.

Jules:

Exactly, you had someone like Anne Margaret for Carnal Knowledge. Anne Margaret was nominated for Carnal.

Joseph:

Knowledge. I believe that was the film's only nomination. It was, and it was. It's kind of interesting too, because, um, it's the only nomination, but it's sort of a mike nichols film, and so she has this really impressive ensemble around her and it wouldn't be her only nomination. She'd be nominated later, I think, for for tommy, but yeah, she would be the only nomination for this, but again, much more sort of different type of work than you would expect her to, I think the image she had developed was not the image from carnal knowledge?

Jules:

right and we have, uh, dexter gordon getting nominated for around midnight, I believe in the late 80s, but again he was playing a struggling saxophone player with an alcohol addiction.

Jules:

So you know you're, you're seeing these musicians being in parts that are really outside their comfort zone they're being embraced for that exactly, or that's a big reason that they're being embraced and, as well as getting a law, getting a nomination alongside something else about the line. That's a trend that you do see. And so my issue with Ariana Grande as a contender is that, while she's good in the film and she's humorous in the film, I don't really feel convinced that voters are going to feel like the character she's playing. The role that she has, her performance is really that much outside of her comfort zone. You know she's a terrific singer. She's a Grammy award winning singer, she's a global pop star, so it's not strange or weird to see her perform well her songs and uh, uh, perform them, um, skillfully. And on top of that, she's playing a fictional character of which you know has, uh, this sort of dna, these remnants of the original wizard of oz, with the academy.

Joseph:

It has that history, but that wizard of oz was not nominated for any awards exactly, was not nominated for any acting awards I think that's the big thing that I'm taking from from all those examples. It's just that the character of the role that you're playing really does play a major factor as to whether you get in or you don't. I hear a lot of dramatic work, a lot of serious minded work, a lot of biographical work actually there yeah and and maybe that's in part why it's able to bring in these other above the line categories.

Joseph:

The other major thing I think that I didn't hear from those examples is fantasy. Right, fantasy in and of itself is a very difficult thing to be nominated for, and sometimes you can, you know, be so memorable in a fantasy movie that you're able to be nominated. And I think the best example is someone like Ian McKellen for the Lord of the Rings, the Fellowship of the Ring. But even then, you know, ian McKellen had to be a previous nominee to accomplish the nomination there. Had Ian McKellen not been nominated for Gods and Monsters, or had not developed, you know, that filmography of Ian McKellen's, then I'm not sure that that movie would have been nominated.

Jules:

And really that whole series is chock full of fantastic performances, none of which got in right exactly, and so I'm just not seeing the stretch in this part for erin agrande and it's also one of her first film credits, if not maybe technically her first real film right, that she's a part of um and there's an aspect to Wicked as a whole, as we mentioned earlier in our acting episodes, that I'm not 100% convinced the Academy is going to embrace for acting in that, as you were saying, fantasy and the film has, you know, a lot to do with the sort of frenemies turned friends. Right, her big number is about being popular. A big humorous gag is the hair flipping, right, that's constant. And so all those things, while they can play well to a general audience, I wonder if voters are going to be looking for something a little bit more distinct, a little bit more challenging.

Jules:

To cite as a musician's first Oscar nomination, right, just curious, right now I was just remembering a musician that didn't get nominated and had the perfect vehicle to get nominated, but again there's almost as nominated, but again there's, there's almost. As if I feel there's a scrutiny. Uh, when you already know of someone as a musical figure and you're seeing them on screen in a part, in a role, you're kind of wanting to be proven that there's enough here to nominate you for your first oscar nomination. Now add to that there's, there's, there's, that. That goes double if it's one of your first parts one of your first roles.

Jules:

I was just thinking about how Alana Haim had the perfect had a great vehicle to get nominated in 2021 with Licorice Pizza. She's the protagonist in that film. She's almost a great chunk of that film.

Joseph:

Very memorable.

Jules:

Very memorable and she had a lot of praise from critics.

Joseph:

A BAFTA nomination A.

Jules:

BAFTA nomination, Actually a BAFTA nomination, a Globe nomination.

Joseph:

SAG Ensemble.

Jules:

A SAG Ensemble nomination, even if she missed the low nomination the individual race.

Jules:

But she misses out. I think about Beyonce and Dreamgirls Dreamgirls gets nominated for Eddie Murphy and Jennifer Hudson, but she doesn't get nominated for lead actress. Get nominated for lead actress. We've talked about this before, this idea that when nominations come out and you're looking at it at a through a larger scale, with some distance, it makes sense why an actor, for example, or a contender, was nominated a specific year and another one wasn't. Well, because it was their first role or they were just starting out, and this other actor has been waiting a long time and they finally get their nomination in.

Jules:

It's sort of weird to have a category that's going to include likely Isabella Rossellini, who's been waiting forever to get a nomination and has very iconic performances and a family and this will be her first nomination in her mid-70s. It's sort of weird to have a category that's going to include someone like Isabella Rossellini and then have also Ariana Grande for one of her first, if not her first, real film.

Joseph:

Right, but you don't even have to go to that extremes because, as we said, the number one person, zoe Saldana. It's kind of weird to be seeing her being nominated at the same time as Ariana Grande, when she again is the face of all these properties and has put in all these years in the industry.

Jules:

So not even just isabel rossellini, that's an extreme example but even someone like zoe Saldana who looks to be like the front runner right of the category, but yeah, but the more I think about it the more I think, well, there are, let's say, actors stand to get snubbed, like, for example, possibly daniel craig he stands to get snubbed, possibly possibly daniel deadweiler. So when I think about these actors getting snubbed and then having an actor or having Ariana Grande kind of get in for her first real performance, her first real film, it just, you know, kind of feels weird to me. That hasn't really shown itself in the precursors. Because she's got a nominee for everything yeah, she's perfect, right Alongside Zoe Zaldana. And so some people would say maybe the smart money is that Ariana Grande will. Because she's got a nominee for everything yeah, she's perfect, right Alongside Zoe Zaldana.

Jules:

And so some people would say maybe the smart money is that Ariana Grande will land that nomination. But there are so many things about that contender about Ariana Grande, about her place in this category, that really raise a lot of flags for me. And add to that and maybe I'll segue into this contender now add to that that there's another contender in a musical that I think is more actor friendly. It's not a fantasy. It stands to be a film that's nominated for many, many, many Oscars and already has two actors getting in, has a likely screenplay nomination, has a director nomination, and that's Emilia Perez and that's Selena Gomez.

Joseph:

Exactly.

Jules:

And I'm sorry to cut you off, but the other thing that's sort of weird to me along the things that I was saying are weird about Ariana Grande in this race, is that it's hard for me to picture Ariana Grande getting her nomination for Wicked before someone like Selena Gomez getting her nomination for Wicked before someone like Selena Gomez, who I think has been more out there, you know doing her acting career.

Jules:

You know she's on that very popular show that I'm sure Oscar voters watch to some extent. She has worked with some auteurs like Harmony Corrine, and so, even though her filmography is still, I believe, in the beginning stages of what she will be doing in the future, it's still someone that you're more cognizant of as someone who's you know doing the craft day in, day out, you know trying to establish a film career. You're not seeing her for the first time, and so it's really hard for me to see the Academy say and so it's really hard for me to see the Academy say, okay, well, there's this other musical that I prefer more and it stars someone that I'm definitely nominating, like Zoe Saldana. And then there's this other actor who I'm more aware of as an actor and I've seen in more things or I've heard them be in more things like Selena Gomez, but I'm going to forego that and I'm going to nominate Ariana Grande instead for her first film in Wicked, a fantasy musical.

Joseph:

I totally understand everything you're saying and I I've sort of been saying it alongside you the entire time. Something looks a little bit off here in context. I'm not sure it's smart to throw away all context. You know, in order to sort of peg a nomination, we've said that you know smart order to sort of peg a nomination. We've said that. You know smart money would say that she's in and I think it's a safe bet. But in context it is anything but safe.

Joseph:

Yes, she's perfect with the Guild nominations and, I'm sorry, she's perfect with the very big nominations, the broadcast award nominations. But perfect is not everything. There are plenty of people, plenty of contenders, that are perfect and fail to make it at the end. And should she not get in? I think all the things that we're mentioning are the reasons. Why are the breadcrumbs as to why she would not get in right? And I think nothing is more appropriate in terms of, you know, further dissecting this contender than speaking about the contender you've brought up, and we haven't even really touched the whole part one, part two of the whole matter which is a whole nother animal to add to the hurdle of her campaign.

Joseph:

But the most appropriate thing is that is that we've talked about the perfect person who we think is a lock, and we've talked about the perfect person who we think is risky as hell, and now we can talk about the next person of everyone else is imperfect.

Jules:

Everyone else has missed something which I think is also revealing.

Joseph:

Yeah, as to how little perfect means. But let's talk next about the contender. That is imperfect, but that is really like sort of stuck between these first two contenders and really sort of it's odd to see her not be in the position that ariana grande is in right now so let's talk about selena gomez.

Jules:

Exactly as I was saying, it's emilia paris is the preferred musical. We're, you know, sort of betting our chips that it's the preferred musical. And so if there's a spot open and actors aren't sure who to put, who's to say that it isn't Selena Gomez getting nominated alongside Zoe Saldana Reminds me. It's reminiscent of Chicago, when it got nominated for both screenplay and it got nominated for two supporting actresses for the same film. You know, certainly Selena Gomez as a contender has had some. There's been some chatter about, you know, disliking her accent in the film, her Spanish, her Spanish in that film, and possibly that could be playing a part here as to why she's not getting more mentions. But regardless of that, it's still, I believe, the film, the musical, that they're going to be more attracted to actors as a whole.

Joseph:

Yeah, certainly it's a top five musical.

Jules:

Yeah exactly and I do wonder if maybe the things that these viewers are seeing in Selena Gomez's performances that are giving them sort of pause and making them feel maybe less in love with the performance, maybe that's sort of penetrating or rubbing off on, you know, all these other voters who are seeing the movie or these other organizations, they're feeling the similarly that. You know she's very much third of these of this. You know, triplet.

Joseph:

I feel like the Academy might feel the opposite, in fact. Which is that okay? So ariana grande is doing these wonderful musical numbers and she has a lot of comedic elements right which she, the film is really working to sort of help, her sort of exceed in those moments and she totally nails it yeah you know, with the hair flipping gag and all that. But then you have selena gomez and the film is asking her to do something that she's extremely uncomfortable doing and she does it to the best of her ability.

Joseph:

And so you have to sort of say, okay, well, what am I going to reward here? A performance where you're doing what you're great at and you're doing it very well, or a performance where you're being asked to do something that you're not great at and you're going to step up and do it anyway? And you did it to the best of your ability. I almost feel like there are going to be members who are going to prefer that.

Joseph:

I'm going to prefer the performance, that sort of put her neck out to sort of speak spanish throughout the film, and I think it's absolutely, is you know, really difficult to sort of hear selena gomez speak spanish and zoe speak sp Spanish and think that they're on the same class, but I think it's as difficult to say that Selena Gomez was trying to handle all this in her performance and Ariana Grande just took, you know, things that maybe came a little bit easier to her or aren't as challenging.

Joseph:

You know, I think that that may actually be a factor and that that backlash that she's had might be the difference maker between some people coming to her defense and saying you know what? What's important here is that she agreed to be part of this really creative movie and she gave it her best shot, and the fact that, as an actor, I like where her career's at, I like that she's on that show and I like that she's worked with Jim Jarmusch and I like that.

Joseph:

She's worked with Harmony Corrine and she's, you know, picked up the phone on Jacques Audiard and has agreed to be in this movie and she's, you know, supporting Carla and Zoe there. So my problem here is what the hell happened at the Screen Actors Guild Award, because that was sort of the do or die moment of her campaign.

Jules:

right, 100%, because a pattern that you'll notice is that if a couple let's call it are going to get nominated in the same category, you typically see them get nominated together for that same movie at the SAG in that same category.

Joseph:

Yeah, the SAG is sort of the barrier to entry as to whether two performances from the same movie can get into the same category.

Jules:

So Zeta Jones and.

Joseph:

Latifah. They're at the SAG for Chicago. Woody Harrelson and Sam Rockwell. They're at the sag for chicago. Woody harrelson and sam rockwell. They're at the sag for three billboards jessica chastain, octavia spencer. They're at the sag for the help. So this was the moment that the sag really needed to step up for her yeah, and they didn't.

Joseph:

They didn't, which is a little bit strange, which is odd to me and it goes back to that idea that we were speaking about on supporting actor with the Jonathan Bailey nomination, which is, I do think that this committee was maybe a little bit more biased towards Wicked. It was the movie that they preferred whatever the committee is.

Joseph:

But it's clearly not the movie that the directors preferred or the BAFTA preferred or the European Film Awards preferred. So I do think that there's something off there and that maybe there is a sort of red herring here as to, yes, ariana Grande is perfect and she got that SAG slot, but that in greater context, there may be more respect for Selena Gomez and where she's at in her career and what she was asked to do in her performance.

Jules:

Right, I agree, I think that's spot on. And, like I said, that SAG nomination it's weird to have Ariana Grande have her first individual SAG nomination before Selena Gomez has one again In a film. They sort of like eat at each other's votes a little bit, possibly um, right now doesn't seem to be the case, because, uh, ariana grande has landed in many more places than selena gomez, but still they're in a similar space of young actors who are very young artists, who are very much at the very beginning of their career, one much more so than the other, and which is not zoe, by the way zoe has had much more years in the industry, has had to represent a bunch of other films, has been part of best picture films and part of films that were nominated at the producer's guild award.

Joseph:

And not just that she nailed every aspect of her performance in in Amelia Perez.

Jules:

And I do think that it's going to cross your mind as you're making your ballot. You know, for some people, for some voters, you know, do I place Ariana Grande higher for this musical, you know, for her first performance or her first movie, her first real role, or do I place Selena Gomez, who's also at the very beginning of her career and this is really kind of the most challenging role she's had yet, but she's also very new? I feel like there's going to be this decision you're going to have to make if you want to include a spot for a young actor in the beginning of their career in a musical Right, and so I think that's also hurt. That hurts Ariana Grande, but it might also hurt, or likely hurts, selena Gomez as well. So those are two contenders that have that, that kind of you know, those conflicts going on.

Joseph:

We should jump to, I think, now the contender that has probably the most extreme in terms of comparison with those two, which is an actor who's been doing it forever who's?

Joseph:

had these really memorable roles, is sort of, you know, a nepo baby in a classic definition, but at the same time she's just fostered this incredible identity in film culture, in international film culture, in art house film culture. Such a unique performer and a unique individual. And here she is at the same time as Zoe, up for her first nomination, and at the same time as these two younger performers who are just starting out in the career, and that's Isabella Rossellini right, we should talk about her next.

Jules:

Yes, and I think that, for all the reasons you said, isabella Rossellini is as close to a slam dunk as you can get after Zoe Saldana for Conclave. I will say that aiding her greatly is the narrative of finally having this established and reputable and amazing actor finally get the recognition that she's deserved for a very long time. It's her time to get into this Academy Award lineup, more so than the performance or the role that she has in Conclave. She does stand out as being the only female in that movie, but let's pretend that Isabella Rossellini already had a nomination prior to this. There's a stronger likelihood that she might be left off the list, right, just because it's not a very showy part. She doesn't have a big Oscar moment. Whatever moment there is, it's not as loud as some of the other contenders that are on here. She's really getting in because it's an it's time nomination.

Jules:

Right she's really getting in because it's an it's time nomination, right, and there's no better excuse than this year, when it's a category that's very in flux their space there's no reason to not nominate her, and that's opposite to someone like we talked about last time with stanley tucci, who has to compete with all these other exactly he's also a past nominee exactly um, she has never been nominated. This will be her first nomination. If anyone, anyone can beat Zoe Saldana for that win, watch out for it to be Isabella.

Joseph:

Osorini, oh yeah.

Jules:

Because of the career that she's had and, yeah, I think she's locked and loaded.

Joseph:

Even though again she's imperfect right.

Jules:

Exactly, she missed the SAG nomination.

Joseph:

Something like the SAG, which we always thought I had always said she might have trouble there, like Jennifer Jason Lee did you know, they went for their. The other sort of nepo baby. Here again another great actor, very different actor, but they went for Jamie Lee Curtis in an afterglow nomination right and we'll talk about that later.

Jules:

Yeah, and I think I wish we'll talk about that right now and I wanted to bring up how these next two contenders, I feel, are fighting for this very pivotal spot in this category, and that's the veteran spot. Yeah, in this category we should have a veteran in this category and that's the veteran spot in this category. We should have a veteran in this category.

Joseph:

The SAG proved it. The SAG, I mean, they didn't prove it, but they certainly sort of pointed the light as to what we were saying, which is it is weird to have a SAG supporting actress category without a veteran.

Jules:

Absolutely, and for the longest time you and I have said that Felicity Jones stands the best chance to get that nomination, to get that veteran spot. She's in the top five best picture movie. If you watch the film, she has the goods. She was nominated about 10 years ago, so she's sort of completing one of those cycles that we talked about in our earlier episodes. Go check that out.

Joseph:

With the category shift Right.

Jules:

Go check that out. In our previous episode discussing the acting categories, um and uh, so she is in the perfect position to get this nomination. She has missed in some places. Some people argue that it might be because she doesn't show up to the second half of the film and they're not watching the second half. That's certainly something that I guess I can buy. Um, I would certainly have expected her to do better. Um, she has a strong moment in that movie. She gets a strong performance in it, she has an important role in that movie and I just feel like she really has everything she needs to get that veteran spot. I don't think she's missing a thing. I don't think that the you know, maybe they're not watching the second half is going to prove a big spoil for her. I think she will make it in and that would be someone that I would consider very close to a lock.

Joseph:

I mean listen. In my research what I've observed is we did not have a veteran. I believe the last time was 1999 for supporting actress, when anjanita jolie won and exactly the morden was nominated, but I think it's important to note that you know there was someone who was pegged for the veteran spot and that was julianne moore for magnolia she got that screen actors guild nomination.

Joseph:

and so there you go again, the screen actors guild awards, sort of saying it's it's good to have a veteran, it's important to have a veteran, it's good to have a veteran, it's important to have a veteran, it's important to have someone who's been there before. And so they have Julianne Moore on there for Magnolia. It's possibly the only reason that year why we had a veteran-less lineup for supporting actress, because Julianne Moore landed a lead actress nomination that same year for the end of the affair. Had she not been in the end of the affair, could we possibly have been looking at, you know, tom, end of the affair. Had she not been in the end of the affair, could we possibly have been looking at Tom Cruise nominated for Magnolia and Julianne.

Jules:

Moore, nominated for.

Joseph:

Magnolia. I think that's a very strong possibility. So, yes, they're willing to skip a veteran, but you really have to sort of push that issue, and the idea that the Globes and the BAFTA have both put up Felicity Jones and now the SAG and the BAFTA have both put up Jamie Lee Curtis, just makes it clear to me that there really is no good reason to keep a veteran off the list right now Exactly 100% and, on that note, the contender trying to giving Felicity Jones a run for her money is Jamie Lee Curtis in the Last Showgirl, who had a surprise turnout a surprising turnout in both the SAG and the BAFTA, getting both nominations.

Jules:

She certainly has beat the odds and people right now are seeing her as a strong person to spoil the lineup to get in. There's talk of an afterglow nomination. My thing with Jamie Lee Curtis in the Last Showgirl is that she is clearly the most seasoned performer in that movie. She does a good job, she's a great actor, but in my opinion there's just not enough of her in the movie for her to really get that veteran spot, especially if you're going to compete against someone like Felicity Jones, who has a lot in that movie.

Joseph:

Not enough meat there.

Jules:

Exactly. There's just not enough meat in her performance and her scenes, and I think the Last Showgirl as a whole would have to get in and be the film's only nomination, and there's already someone here that I think is going to fight for that spot, and we'll talk about them in a minute and so.

Joseph:

I mean to add fuel to that fire. She's also sort of she just won.

Joseph:

Yeah, she just won, and so when she gets that Afterglow nomination at BAFTA. She lost that award to Carrie Condon, that's true and she's beloved there. And yes, she gets that nomination at the Screen Actors Guild Award. But again, that committee, they're seeing her in the bear and I'm not sure she's up for her performance in the bear in any individual category. But that's very much a a nomination because jamie lee curtis is just, you know, a pillar of the acting industry now and she's such a charismatic person and it is a very strong turn and they nominated her with pamela anderson.

Joseph:

Yeah, to me the short coming of her campaign is she can go as far as pamela anderson can take her right because pamela anderson is the center of the piece, but because the actress category is so competitive, it is going to be so difficult for Pamela Anderson to find a foothold there which would leave her Jamie Lee Curtis all by herself.

Jules:

Right exactly.

Joseph:

And if you look at afterglow nominations, I do think that when we think about someone like Sam Rockwell, for example, getting that afterglow nomination, I think it's important to note when sam rockwell goes from three billboards to vice. Vice is a best picture movie, nominated for a bunch of acting awards, and he's playing george george bush real life a real life figure. So all those things, I think, are factors exactly.

Jules:

I will say that I think jamie the courier's would stand a great chance to be nominated this year by herself or not if she had not been nominated for everything everywhere all at once I totally agree totally, I would totally see it happening. But since that's not what happened and actually the very the opposite happened, yeah I feel pretty confident that she won't make this list, right?

Jules:

um, the other person to talk about that, I think, is the other person to talk about that I think is uh significant is daniel Deadwyler. Um, if she were to get nominated in this list, she would certainly occupy the lone nomination spot, the film's only nomination spot. That's always a tricky place to be in.

Jules:

It's always a vulnerable place to be in yeah that being said, daniela Deadweiler was very notably snubbed for Till. The Academy got some flack for that they did. She had gotten at that point, she had gotten a BAFTA nomination. She had gotten a SAG nomination. It was notable. There were many people in the industry, many actors especially, who felt that that was a snub, an unfair snub. And it didn't happen that long ago. It happened a few years ago.

Joseph:

Just a few years, yeah.

Jules:

Exactly, and so I expected her to miss out on some nominations this year, because she had just been nominated in those organizations a few years prior, so it's not super surprising that she didn't get the BAFTA nomination. She was just there two or three years ago.

Joseph:

Right or or the globe, for example.

Jules:

Well, she didn't get the globe the first time.

Joseph:

Oh, wow.

Jules:

Interesting, um, but the SAG still nominated her, despite having nominated her a couple of years ago. Yeah, and that doesn't tend to happen that often. Usually, the SAG will nominate you know someone that they haven't nominated in a bit. Not always the case, but it happens often. The fact that they found room for her in this category shows, I think, some significant desire to see this actor get the nomination, and in this particular case she has a perfect excuse. She's in an August Wilson adaptation that name carries a lot for the Academy From the Washington household.

Jules:

It's a film from the Washington family. I think there are going to be actors who are going to check that out.

Joseph:

I mean I think it's huge right. I mean she was able to get this nomination where she didn't need to be nominated. She just got her first nomination at the SAG for lead actress of all places and technically that spot should have gone to Selena Gomez. Right, that was the Selena Gomez spot to cement her into those five and the guilt set. I would rather not nominate Selena Gomez and instead nominate Daniel Deadweiler again.

Jules:

Exactly, and if you see the film, she got the, she's got the moments. It's an emotional part. There are a lot of you know, quote-unquote oscar scenes in there to pick from, and so I feel like if it's a film that they're going to watch, yeah, which is the biggest question mark.

Jules:

is it too quiet? Is it too by itself that the not enough voters saw it? But if they do see it, she's going to be on your ballot, she's going to be high on your ballot, and so I would not count her out at all. I think she's a strong contender to make this list.

Joseph:

And I cannot, for the life of me, think of the last performance that was able to garner two SAG nominations.

Jules:

So close together.

Joseph:

So close together without resulting in an Academy Award nomination.

Joseph:

Somewhere it is so difficult to think of that performance. Yeah, you know, I've done some research and I can't come up with it yet. So the fact that the sag nominated her here, in my opinion, is one of those instances where they are pushing the issue here to remember, sort of you know hashtag. Sag does not forget. You know, they want the academy to remember her, remember the performance, remember the snub, and so I think that this was absolutely a massive win for her campaign and it's very difficult for me to see her being left off the list.

Jules:

I agree.

Joseph:

You know, what I have to factor in is what we're talking about, about that idea that maybe there are going to be more international votes. This year. But even then, I do think people in the East Coast really did like the piano lesson. It's up for Independence Award. I think she was nominated for a Gotham Award she was, so I do think that there are East Coast voters that are fans of Daniel Deadweiler and fans of the piano lesson.

Jules:

I agree 100%. And then I'll also say that along those lines, when you're talking about possibly a foreign voting bloc, having passionate contenders, someone to really look out for that spot, or the recipient of those passion votes, is someone like Margaret Qualley. For the Substance yes, she missed the SAG. Yes, she missed the BAFTA. She's gotten many more nominations than people thought. I think she's gotten the most precursor wins from these regional critics groups and the Substance stands to be not her best picture. Thought I think she's gotten the most precursor wins from these regional critics groups. Um, and the substance stands to be nine for best picture.

Jules:

And more importantly most, importantly, demi Moore stands to be nine for best actress.

Jules:

Her pair is there Exactly, and so there's nothing easier for the actors branch to do than to nominate pairs yeah, and so if you're going to nominate Demi Moore, you might as well nominate Margaret Qualley, yeah, so she's someone who can certainly steal a spot here.

Jules:

The only thing that gives me a little bit of pause is that I wish I had seen her get that nominated for that BAFTA, since the substance had done so well on the long lists.

Jules:

Overall, the substance underperformed at the BAFTA, which makes me feel that it's going to do about the same, maybe a little less, at the Academy. It'll still, I think, be not for Best Picture, but its total tally, I think, will be less. Part of that will be because it's a genre film. It's a genre film that's sort of beating the odds and making all these lists, and usually when a film of a different kind does that sort of thing, it doesn't do it with a huge haul, it's little by little, and so I can see the Substance getting, you know, a limited number of nominations and leaving out someone like Margaret Qualley. But in the event that there were more foreign voters foreign voters this year because of what was happening here in the States, especially in the LA area with the wildfires, and we see more influence from voters do not be surprised at all if Demi Moore gets her pair in Margaret Qualley for the Substance.

Joseph:

And beyond that, I will also say you know. Taking this back to these other young actresses Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande Margaret Qualley is in head and shoulders, the much better position, in the sense that look at where her career is. This point she has yoga's land, the most looking for her for roles. She was in kinds of kindness this year poor things last year. She's worked with emma stone. She's been the lead of a mini-series, she's been the supporting of a mini-series. She's worked with sam rockwell, she's worked with michelle williams, um, she's worked with brad pitt and dicaprio and once upon a time in Hollywood, she's built bridges with France worked with.

Joseph:

Claire Denis. She's built bridges internationally with Yorgos. She was in a Coen Brothers, a Coen film this year.

Jules:

Drive Away Dolls.

Joseph:

So she's just building the kind of career that you know actors are going to champion and are going to give her a nomination for sure at some point. She's also Andy McDowell's daughter, and she's really putting herself on the line here for this performance. So I the more I think about it, the more I think that even without those nominations, if the competition is what it is, it's going to be so difficult not to put margaret quali on that list because of everything she has accomplished up to this moment right, if anything.

Jules:

Something you just said is the other thing that gives me pause about her is that, since we already have someone on this list who's going to occupy that space of being a quote-unquote nepo baby of, uh, isabella rossellini, I question if the list can include two. You know, I think it's a little weird to include two baff to include it too technically. Yes, you're right, they did um, so it's possible, but it's certainly something that gives me a little bit more pause with Margaret Wally.

Jules:

But, like I said, if that French voters and German voters and Canadian, you don't see her somewhere in in the sag, for example. Um, besides that, you know it's a genre from, it's a genre film, so I didn't expect the substance to do great there. Um is that because of the role she's playing, there's a certain beauty to it, there's a certain youth to it. The film is asking a lot out of her, so there's no doubt about that. But maybe because she's playing, you know, the more beautiful character that eventually sort of you know that deteriorates clearly. But maybe there's an aspect to that that they feel is I don't know what the right word is, I wouldn't use less challenging but certainly less striking than to see demi more.

Jules:

You know, um, have that right um downfall so clearly throughout the film and eventually end up where she ends up with all caked in all this makeup and this quote unquote ugliness Um but they have done a good job, Demi and Margaret. Quality of campaigning together and sort of supporting each other throughout the entire thing.

Joseph:

A lot like the Emilia Perez girls.

Jules:

Yeah, right.

Joseph:

So I wouldn't be surprised that if you're voting for Demi, then you're voting for Margaret.

Jules:

Right, a hundred percent. And then the last person that we're going to really seriously talk about is um, a very interesting contender who is sort of a late bloomer, and that's monica barbara, for a complete unknown we.

Joseph:

We called it as soon as we saw the movie, you know, as soon as we heard the positive buzz for it you know, this is the kind of thing that would definitely be on this list and I I'm gonna say that I understand why she's on the SAG list, but she didn't have to be on the SAG list.

Joseph:

She's another young actor with a limited filmography. She was in Top Gun Maverick, which is already a Best Picture nomination. That's a great thing for her to have you know on her filmography. That's something, for example, that Selena Gomez and Ariana Grande do not have at this point that Zoe had back in 2009. So it's already a great get, but she didn't have to be Naya for a SAG. It's like we said someone real, really rounds out this list right.

Joseph:

And so when you vote for Monica, you're not just voting for a very good performance in a very well-written character in which she sang her own songs All those are pluses for her right but you're also voting for Joan Baez.

Jules:

Absolutely A hundred percent, and so I think that's going to make her a very attractive contender, especially since A Complete Unknown is a top five film in our opinion. It's a film that you saw has some recency bias. If you like that film and you like the performances and you like Timothee Chalamet and you like Edward Norton and there's space in supporting actors and you don't know who to put, she's someone that you would consider seriously. Add to that that she got that SAG nomination. I think that was huge. If there's anything that she has to sort of fight against is that there's another actor in her film who's more well-known than her and also excellent and terrific, terrific performance. I wish that we could also be talking about her getting a spot here, and that's Al Fanning, who's great in her movie. So maybe there's some internal competition going on there that some people you know they eat at each other's votes a little bit. That could be happening. It didn't happen at the SAG.

Joseph:

It did not happen at the SAG, but the SAG has nominated Al Fanning before. Yes.

Jules:

Individually. Yes, that could have played a part, possibly.

Joseph:

I mean, they had just nominated Daniel Deadwyler and they were fine doing that.

Jules:

That's true, but I would say Jamie Lee Curtis too Right. But I would say, and also that she, that neither of the Uncomplete Unknown women show up in the BAFTA long list is also something that maybe raises your eyebrow, considering that that movie still landed best picture maybe so it's clearly very liked there too but there are so many good contenders this year that did not show up after the long list.

Joseph:

That, I think, after the long list, is very useful below the line and questionable above the line, if you ask me exactly, but her getting that sag nomination.

Jules:

We were like overjoyed because we had called it yeah this category should have a real person.

Joseph:

She's right there, she's any top five movie I bet you, the critics choice is sort of shooting themselves in the foot right now. They didn't nominate her in that list.

Jules:

And so the last time that there wasn't a real life figure, and again we're more referring to a very well-known public figure, you know, joan Baez- Historical figure yeah. Exactly the last time that there wasn't was rather recently in 2022. There wasn't was rather recently in 2022.

Jules:

there wasn't but before that you have to go all the way back to 2011, right, when, uh, the supporting actress category didn't have, um, a real life figure in it, and so it just speaks to this trend they like nominating real life figures and, if I can speak to that for a second, the real life figure that was the choice in 2022 that they decided to leave off was really carrie mulligan, for she said right, and it's not on the same caliber as joan baez.

Joseph:

Right, she did not have a pair to get in with. The film was completely shut out. It was certainly too close to hollywood for them to recognize it for any award.

Joseph:

Right, and on top of that, mulligan had just been there for for a promising woman right exactly, and in 2011, the closest thing you had to a real person was Judi Dench, in my Week with Marilyn, who actually did get that BAFTA nomination. Judi Dench is royalty there, but it's a stretch, you know. Here's again Joan Baez in a major nomination. She did not have to get this nomination. She's at the early stages of her career, but it says something that they said. I want to go out of my way to nominate a real performance, and I'm talking about the SAG here, which, at the end, the Academy ends up replicating. When the SAG went real person-less, the Academy went real person-less. Now that the SAG has gone with a real person, I really feel in my gut that the Academy will go with a real person.

Jules:

I 100% agree with that. The Academy will go with a real person. I 100% agree with that, and you know, there's aspects to her performance that I think are really going for her. Besides that, she does her own singing. There's so many sort of live musical performances in that movie, so it's not too hard to picture an actor who likes the movie, who's moved by these performances, these musical performances, these sort of nostalgic pieces. It's not too far abridged to imagine that they're going to like the performer who performed those performances Right and add to that their real life figure and you're going to place them high on your ballot, and so I think she's a huge contender in this group and I like having a real person here. I don't like that. It was just 2022 where we didn't have one. I'd like to have more years where we since 2022, that we're including one.

Joseph:

I would also pitch you that idea that if you look at the SAG 5 women for supporting actress, the supporting actress category averages about three writing nominations. And if we take A Complete Unknown and Emilia Perez, which still might be tricky, as the writing nominees, we possibly have too many performances that are not going to be nominated with their screenplay in the Last Showgirl, the Piano Lesson and Wicked. There's something off about that. Now they have gone two before, just two performances with a screenplay nomination crossover.

Joseph:

But it does call my attention that they do average three right whereas if you look at the bafta list and there you have emilia perez, which looks like it may happen but it's about rossellini for conclave you have conclave. Who is certainly going to happen and you have the buddha list, which stands a good chance at happening right, and we already know that a complete unknown will happen, right? So I'm just saying that that's how tricky this category is. Is that another movie that looks like it's going to land that screenplay nomination is the Substance.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

And so I do think that we are going to get three performances from a movie that is nominated for a screenplay award.

Jules:

Yeah, I 100% agree and I think those are the biggest contenders to talk about. Unfortunately, there are a lot there. There are a plethora of contenders who didn't um sort of uh, materialize, materialize. I mourn for Michelle Austin and hard truths. I think she's a fantastic, that's a fantastic, beautiful, heartbreaking performance. Should have been on the BAFTA list. She should have been on the BAFTA list.

Joseph:

she won't be that's oh, but how great would that be if she did that would be so amazing.

Jules:

It won't happen. I doubt it. Al fanning is terrific in her movie. I would have loved to see more support for her. Anjanielis is great in her movie. I wish that the campaign from amazon had been stronger, that she could have had uh more of a shot here. Jennifer lopez is very good and unstoppable yeah we just have a plethora of strong.

Jules:

Uh, carol kane, in between the temples, is great. One new york. Yeah, leslie manville is great and queer, so there's just so many. Uh, carrie coon and his three daughters, um, all the three daughters all the actresses from his three daughters. There's just so many strong supporting actresses contenders that just went by the wayside and so that really sucks um. But in terms of the contenders, the real contenders for these five spots we've talked about them. I think it's about what Eight contenders?

Joseph:

Which is a lot for what we're talking about, for acting.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

But of all the acting awards.

Jules:

No nine contenders.

Joseph:

Nine contenders for five spots, which is more than almost all the other acting categories, but all these others-.

Jules:

It really goes to show you how influx and chaotic this category is.

Joseph:

And not just that, but I mean you didn't mention Tony Collette for juror number two.

Jules:

Oh, yes, so.

Joseph:

I would say that if we're going to get like a left field pick, that's so like page number 10 of the newspaper. I had no idea that was coming. I think this would be the category.

Jules:

Yeah so coming.

Joseph:

I think this would be the category. So if Anjanew Ellis shows up for Nickel Boys, do not be shocked. It's just the nature of the category this year. Yeah, exactly A hundred percent.

Jules:

And so then, my final five, I think, is going to be a little controversial. I'm going to say Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez, isabel Rossellini, conclave Felicity Jones, the Brutalist, locked and Loaded. Those are the bona fide top three in my opinion. Then I'm going to say Daniela Deadweiler, off the strength of that SAG nomination and that previous snub and the role and the performance and the film, the adaptation that she's in the Piano, lesson no 4. And my last spot I'm going to give to Monica Barbaro for Complete Unknown. I like a real-life figure in this category. She has the perfect excuse, she's in the perfect film for it. I like her getting in. And I guess my sixth spot is going to be your spoiler. My spoiler, I guess, is going to be that somehow Ariana Grande manages to get that above the line nomination without Cynthia Erivo or with Cynthia Erivo, and she spoils one of those spots.

Joseph:

I think that's a great list and a great spoiler. I think I'm going five for five with you. You have Zoe Zaldana, who's been waiting forever for a nomination, has put in the work for it. She's going to reap the fruits of all that work this year. Isabel Rossellini goes even further, when she should have been nominated for Blue Velvet. And then I think that you need a veteran. I think they. I think you need a veteran. I think they've proved you need a veteran. They're signifying you need a veteran. I think felicity jones has been waiting 10 years.

Joseph:

There's a category shift. Her co-star should be nominated, so I think she's in third. And then for fourth, I think the sag solidified that that daniel deadweiler. You know the sag doesn't forget and they don't want the academy to forget, and I don't think the Academy will forget. So I think Daniel Deadweiler is in there for the, for the piano lesson.

Joseph:

And the last spot is, I really think, somebody real, and I think the one that has the best shot is Monica Barbaro, for a complete unknown who does her own singing in the film too. I think the only place where I'll differ, and I think again, this is the kind of category where certainly ariana grande can still get in right. But the only place that I'll differ is that because ariana grande and selena gomez, I think, eat at each other's campaign so closely, I'm going to give the edge to margaret qually, because her co-star will be nominated, because she has built bridges not just in the american cinema but the american independent cinema, french cinema, uh, international cinema, miniseries and TV. I think she's done enough work in all these other little places where she's ripe for a nomination.

Joseph:

And this will be probably her sort of Emma Stone moment of Birdman being nominated for a Best Picture movie and in five, seven years time she'll probably land that lead actress nomination.

Jules:

Right, a hundred percent. So she's my spoiler. I think that's a good one. I wouldn't be at all surprised if she landed and honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we're both wrong and slenda gomez manages in to the spot again. It's the preferred musical people, yeah, um, and so we'll see what happens with this category, and those are our final predictions for best supporting actress okay, well, that about covers it.

Joseph:

Thanks for joining us today on Academy Anonymous. I'm Joseph.

Jules:

I'm Jules and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and Incompetechcom Licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg licenses by 3.0.

Joseph:

Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.