Academy Anonymous

Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions; An Open Spot for Original Screenplay; Can Musicals Finally Break the Adapted Screenplay Dryspell

• Jules & Joseph • Season 1 • Episode 15

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

  • ANORA & A REAL PAIN locks for Original Screenplay
  • Two unconventional writing pieces in THE SUBSTANCE & THE BRUTALIST cement their chances for Screenplay with solid Best Picture bids, but are they really writers’ cup of tea?
  • Four first-time nominees and the shrinking window for a veteran writer on the Original Screenplay shortlist. Can CIVIL WAR or SATURDAY NIGHT recover?
  • Justin Kuritzkes to ride breakthrough year into first Oscar nomination for writer-fave CHALLENGERS
  • A (too little too late?) boost for writer Mike Leigh’s HARD TRUTHS with vocal support from Barry Jenkins & Greta Gerwig
  • ALL WE IMAGINE AS LIGHT hopes for a solo nod in writing after being the rare critics darling not submitted for International Film
  • Can the experimental NICKEL BOYS lock up a screenplay nod on the strength and popularity of its Pulitzer Prize-winning source material
  • DUNE PART 2 struggling to repeat after Dune Part One’s nomination
  • Can the Almodovar name push his English-language debut THE ROOM NEXT DOOR past musical fare
  • SING SING  vast writing team hopes to secure at least one nomination with writers 
  • Veteran CONCLAVE writer the favorite to finally win
  • Former writing nominees, Mangold and Jay Cocks collaboration an easy call for Adapted Screenplay
  • WICKED and EMILIA PEREZ trying to scale a mountain of history against them and land among the Adapted Screenplay nominees. Can ONE or BOTH beat the odds?


Jules:

hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous. I'm your co-host, jules and I'm joseph and we're going to be dissecting original screenplay and adapted screenplay, seeing the field and coming up with our final predictions for Oscar nomination morning. All right, let's start with original screenplay.

Joseph:

Right, and I think we have some definite locks in this race and some likelies, and then we have one giant question mark for you and me For the last three months. We haven't been able to sort of nail it down and as the road to Oscar closes, I don't think we're any closer to having a definitive answer on it. It's very suspect, but let's start talking about the titles all the way at the top. Let's talk about. Onora right, we both agree, this is a lock.

Joseph:

Yeah, lock and likely winner, yes and it's great to see, or very common to see, screenplays that overlap between writing and directing and. Sean Baker certainly fits that mold right right.

Jules:

We've got a real pain which has really stayed alive after its Sundance premiere and is really in a very comfortable position here to get nominated. I think it's a lock as well.

Joseph:

Right.

Jules:

I think another film that I would consider a lock is the Brutalist for screenplay. Something that people have to keep in mind, if they don't already know, is that when we're talking about a field of 10 Best Picture nominees, the majority of those films should be nominated for screenplay.

Joseph:

They ought to be.

Jules:

In the event that there's one or two left off. That's okay, that's normal, but what you shouldn't have is three films that don't have a screenplay nomination. You can figure out, in a way, who's going to be nominated for Best Picture by looking at the above the lines and looking at director acting, acting and especially screenplay, to see who's going to round out that top 10 list. And so the Brutalist is a top five movie and should stand a very good chance of getting the screenplay nomination.

Joseph:

I agree the Brutalist seems to be in there. I would knock it a notch down as a very likely. Again, we've seen editors be very critical about a film that's three hours plus, you know, kind of asking themselves where is the editor? There is a chance that this sort of unconventional, unorthodox, opaque, artistic, challenging international film about the american dream is possibly not can't be boxed in enough or pigeonholed enough for some writers and that that might be a turnoff. You know, at the same time, brady corbett and his co-writer mona they're not necessarily perennial names here. I don't think that this is the kind of film that will get into this category, were it not a massive favorite for best picture, but, as you said, by virtue of being on that best picture lineup.

Jules:

It's easy to cross over into screenplay, so I think that's very likely to happen I agree with that point, um, and the next film that I would say is a very likely nominee is the substance, by virtue that I think it's in a strong position to be nominated for Best Picture, and this is what I think is going to be Coralie Fargeau's nomination outside of a producer credit I'm not sure she's going to get into director, but the Substance has kind of also stayed alive in the conversation of screenplay, which I think is a little odd for that movie. Personally, I wouldn't peg it as the first thing you come out of that movie is thinking about its screenplay. However, after Khan, it did win the screenplay prize, which was also a little puzzling to some critics, and then it certainly has stayed afloat in that conversation of screenplay where it got a Globe nomination and so a BAFTA nomination, and I think that, beating the odds, that film is definitely going to get an eye for screenplay.

Joseph:

I agree with all that you said. I I think we both thought that, coming out of that film, this was a film to sort of push into director that, because, by virtue that the film is a genre piece and something like Black Swan, which plays with genre, does not make the final five. By virtue that this film we talked about, it is very sparse in dialogue and again, that doesn't tend to make it all the way into screenplay unless it's intentionally done via the artist and that's such an important part of its construction. By virtue of those two aspects, we had always debated on whether or not it could really sort of last all season long and land that spot.

Joseph:

But the momentum for the Substance as a best picture movie, I think really solidifies it. Here Again, I want to put it alongside the brutalist as very likely were it not to be nominated. You understand that factors like genre bias, yeah like you know, a lack of focus on dialogue possibly all those are going to be factors that were to be left off this list.

Joseph:

It would be the reason why. Yeah, but at the moment, where it stands, I agree with you it is in the top four, and that really sums up, I think, what you and I would consider the most solidified four in this race the locks, the very likelies. The fifth spot is an absolute question mark. It's debatable as to which film is ahead. You know, I think the best place to start is let's start discussing the BAFTA 5, right, and so the BAFTA 5 has those four titles already placed in it, and the fifth spot went to Kneecap, right.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

And I don't think that you and I are thinking that's a film that's going to be able to go the distance and land this nomination in the Academy, but I do think it demonstrates that whoever's going to kneecap for the British Academy, which means that maybe the deciding vote that's going to happen to push this film is possibly the more American independent vote. Maybe it's the international vote that does not include the British Academy.

Joseph:

So, barring kneecap, let's take a look now at who the other shortlisted or I should say, long listed films were for original screenplay, because the really interesting thing about bafta long lists is that, especially for screenplay, they've been very revealing.

Joseph:

They have had, I think, all 10 screenplay nominees at the academy, that's all 10, including adapted and original, within their long lists. And that's true whether the long lists were 15 mentions in early on in 2020 and 2021, so a total of 30 films listed between adapted and original. For BAFTA they've had all 10 of the academy nominees for screenplay original and adapted. But it's also true for the last couple of years where they whittled that list down to 10 titles. So in a year like 2023 and 2022, when BAFTA listed 20 titles for original and adapted, they still had the 10 titles that were included for the academy's original and adapted category. So here are the titles that got left off of that original screenplay list for the British Academy. All we Imagine is Light, an international film by Acapulia, the Apprentice Challengers, civil War and Heretic. So the odds are that if there's a spoiler there, it's probably amongst those titles.

Jules:

Right, yeah, I think that's very true. They've trended in that way. I think this year is a weirder year, so I wouldn't be surprised to see the last spot in this lineup go to someone that is not on the BAFTA long list. I just think it's that kind of year, it's that kind of crapshoot. I think I get a little bit more confidence in that sort of perspective when I see that kneecap got that last spot as opposed to one of the other more well-known films that are vying for this position here at the Oscars.

Jules:

Well, there are a number of films that you mentioned there that I think have a shot, albeit I don't think one of the stronger shots, and that's Challengers. All we Imagine Is Light. Heretic, I see them as running a bit behind from the rest of the field. I think All we Imagine Is Light. Given its circumstance of this being one of the very few and only places where it can be spotlighted, might be enough to get it into that lineup. Possibly that's true. Possibly that's true. Possibly that's true. What do you think about a film like the Seat of the Sacred Fig?

Joseph:

Well, the Seat of the Sacred Fig did not factor into the BAFTA list, and I don't know if right now it's a bridge too far. It seems like if there were to be an international film to crash this side of screenplay, it would probably be payal kapadia's film. All we imagine is light. I think we've also talked about how very few films that win the national society of film critics walk away empty-handed and this might be a place to include an individual like payal.

Joseph:

I would have thought at one point that payal had a better chance of getting in here, for All we Imagine is Life than the Substance, but the Substance is such a favorite for a picture nomination now that it seems difficult to imagine.

Joseph:

Now what if we cross-referenced these movies with the movies that got shortlisted at the Writers Guild Award, and maybe that gives you a clearer idea. And bear in mind there were a lot of films that did not qualify here. So whatever five this is is a list where the Substance and the Buddha list were not eligible, and so the Writers Guild Award for original screenplay they selected A Real Pain and Anora, which we're saying are locks for a nomination, but they rounded out the list with the two hits from the summer Challengers and Civil War and lastly Mild Ass, and I think we can both agree that, unfortunately, mild ass is probably a little too far behind to make up this ground although it's an excellent film and it's a wonderful script.

Joseph:

We both really enjoyed that movie. A lot right but you know, here are two titles that cross over with bafta and you have challengers and civil war. Is maybe that painting a picture to you that maybe the best films to steal? That fifth spot is either Challengers or Civil War. Is that what you're thinking?

Jules:

I think that's possible. If anything, I think it brings about another conversation and I know we'll touch on it either now or very soon on this idea that this category really does welcome and is very often that you see a veteran in the original screenplay lineup and this year we have very few options from which to pick for that spot. And the Writers Guild did include a veteran. They did. They included Alex Garland for Civil War. Yeah, surprisingly, other options that exist are Mike Lee, for Hard Truth is one.

Joseph:

The team from Saturday Night Saturday.

Jules:

Night is another one, but in general there are very few options, very few viable ones, yeah, and so it's interesting that even the Writers Guild found a spot for a veteran and it being a surprising spot like Civil War Right, it certainly makes me think that A the writers branch is still going to try to stick with that stat and have a veteran in the lineup, and also that Civil War looks like a good person to fill that slot, a good contender to fill that slot.

Joseph:

Well, I'll say this about both films. First of all, for challengers, it has that golden globe nomination. It's well regarded amongst writers. It was really celebrated and spotlighted amongst writers when it came out. I remember ryan johnson was tweeting about a great movie great movie and it's also a movie that sort of plays with this archetype of you know, sports movie as metaphor for other things and relationships and and sexual relationships and intimate relationships and character studies and that's been sort of recognized before.

Joseph:

I remember bull durham, I believe, did well here in this category to the screenplay category, so it seems like the kind of film that would be fodder for writers. On top of that, the writer who was really just starting out in his career he had two movies this year with luca right, right, and so maybe writers are aware of that and that helps push him across the line for the more celebrated, the more prominent title at this point, which is Challengers right, right, but maybe as a disadvantage is that his career is still very much in the beginning stages, right, which could be a reason why the branch looks elsewhere, possibly I think.

Joseph:

also he's in a relationship with the writer of past lives and I don't know if that's going to be something that voters are aware of or not aware of a celine song, I believe. So I don't know if that's going to be an element or not. It's just an interesting tidbit. But then you have civil war, right, and alex garland has been nominated before. In fact, ex Machina was widely nominated within the Academy. So he's a Writers Guild Award nominee this year for Civil War and he made that long list and we've talked about it all year. That fifth spot.

Joseph:

According to our research and our stats it should be a veteran and unfortunately this year we've been very thin on them. But here you go. I was shocked to see Civil War on this list over titles that I thought had momentum for them as the year closed, and that included Heretic, which was listed at BAFTA. That included a movie like Baby Girl, which had just opened up over Christmas and was doing spectacularly. So I was really surprised to see Civil War here.

Joseph:

And you know what this seemed like the kind of guild where if Saturday night, as a sort of veteran spot, was going to hit anywhere, it would definitely hit here. So the idea that the guild had room for a veteran makes me feel like the Oscars is going to have room for a veteran and the fact that of all the choices they decided on Civil War, I think might make it the best candidate. It did cross over into BAFTA as well. Unfortunately, I don't think the support for Saturday Night materialized, but I did think at the beginning of the year, or rather the beginning of the fall, that there's just so much respect for the topic amongst writers, the topic of making the show and making art, and of course, a lot of writers who have crossed over and have a relationship, a personal relationship, a professional relationship with Saturday Night Live, that I thought it would have been able to sort of land here and possibly sneak into the Oscar in that veteran spot.

Jules:

If that's not the case, I think that Civil War is sounding like a really good option right, I think that's true, but I think that's something that's complicating things is that, with no clear veteran to take that spot, there is a lot of other films that I think might be perceived by the branch as being one of the few, one of the few ways that they can spotlight this movie. Uh, for example, challengers. Some writers may feel like, well, you know, if I don't nominate Challengers, maybe it doesn't get, maybe it walks away with no nominations. Some writers might feel that way about Heretic, which I think got the WGA nomination correct.

Joseph:

No, it only got the BAFTA longlist mention.

Jules:

Right. Some writers might feel that way about Heretic. Some writers will certainly feel that way about All we Imagine is Light. So when you have all these titles that are competing for the same kind of voting block, a passionate block that wants to highlight one of the few ways that they can highlight one of these movies, then maybe you get into a trickier territory of you know no, coalescing into one passion vote, coalescing into one passion vote One movie that I left off there, that I think we should certainly talk about and that's in that group of movies as possibly being a film that generates a passionate voting block.

Jules:

The question is how big? And that's September five, which, if you see the movie, I think you can certainly see writers respecting this film, liking this film. It's a very thought provoking film with its themes, um, and I can see a lot of writers going for it if they saw the movie. Um, which is again a big question mark. Um, the PGA nomination gives me some kind of reassurance that the film is being watched. Are writers watching it enough? I don't know. I saw that movie and I felt like writers would really attach to the themes that that film is talking about. I think it juggles, uh the crisis, as well as character development, really well in that movie, and it's a very layered film um contemplating uh themes like media and ethics and media, the role of the spectator. So I think those are all um aspects of the film that I think writers would gravitate towards, and so I think that that is a very dark horse. To make a surprise mention here I know it's not on the bafta long list I know it's done pretty poorly overall.

Jules:

Again, they did get that pga nomination pretty late, but maybe that's some sort of indication. So I think a film to really watch out for here in place of a veteran not seeing as we don't have that many to choose from and it's sort of splintered overall is a film like septemberth.

Joseph:

I agree with what you're saying. I believe that September 5th unfortunately has not had the energy to pop up in enough places. It's not on that Babs Along List, it's not at the Guild Awards and it's been quiet overall. But that PGA nomination in recent days should be very telling. I think you and I researched and what's going most for September 5th is that it's very rare over the past few years to find a PGA nominee in that extended list. That gets absolutely shut out.

Joseph:

Yeah, exactly it doesn't need a screenplay category. You know movies like the Whale and Black Panther, wakanda Forever. They end up in acting categories and tech categories beyond Best Picture. But even if you don't land Best Picture, it is very rare these last few years to be on that list and get nothing, and I think that this category is possibly thin enough for September 5th to land here at minimum and I think that's going for it and beyond that. I also think the last few years we've seen these nominees for Best picture drama at the Golden Globes.

Joseph:

It's very difficult again for them not to show up somewhere. You have to think about something like Bobby or the Great Debaters back in 2007, 2006,. Both of them at the hands of the Weinstein company. So very much sort of you know, the Weinstein hands sort of manipulate the conversation or guiding the conversation in ways that maybe weren't very organic. But the fact that September 5th is on both the PGA list and the Golden Globe drama list lead me to believe that it's going to be virtually impossible for it to walk away empty-handed, and this category seems ripe for its inclusion although it would sort of ruin our sort of stat and that stat.

Joseph:

Just to reiterate that stat goes back to 2001. Every year, but 2001, I believe, the original screenplay category has had a writer that was nominated beforehand for an academy award since first screenplay ever, yeah, ever since 2001.

Joseph:

And in 2001, if remember, the nominees were Amelie, memento, monsters Ball, the Royal Tenenbaums and Gosford Park, all of them first-time nominees. So no veteran there. And I think the only real veteran from the sort of screenplay category that really had a shot was possibly the Coen brothers. For the man who Wasn't there, I think at that point the Coen brothers were sort of hitting this moment where they were being overlooked by the academy.

Joseph:

The man who wasn't there beautiful film nominated for cinematography but missed that sort of veteran spot in screenplay and maybe that's the situation we're in now, but I do want to bring in one last veteran who I think he doesn't really need very much to end up on this list. That's the esteem and respect he has from his colleagues, and that's Mike Lee for Hard Truths, right, yeah, absolutely.

Jules:

I would love for Hard Truths to be nominated here. It's one of my favorite films of the year. It's a beautiful script. It's a beautiful film. Mike Lee is no stranger to being recognized. It's actually odd, the Mike Lee film that isn't recognized for anything. Right, it's rare, um, and even when his performances or his films don't do well overall, he still manages a screenplay nomination. Um, I think the film was coming out at a tricky time, was coming out late. Um, bleaker street it's bleaker street. During its release, very soon around that time you had the LA wildfires, so I don't know if enough people were paying attention. I know I saw Barry Jenkins doing a.

Joseph:

Q&A.

Jules:

I saw Greta Gerwig doing a Q&A and that just speaks to the respect that that filmmaker has in this community.

Joseph:

He also won the National Board of Review which has been great at getting their winners into whatever screenplay category they win.

Jules:

Correct, and so you know, know, I think his inclusion here would be uh great, it would be beautiful. I'm not sure it's going to happen again, I'm just not sure that it got enough eyeballs on it, um, and maybe that film shows up elsewhere, which we'll get into, uh later. Um, but yeah, what do you think?

Joseph:

I. I think that if it does get in. We know it had interviews in the couple of days leading up to the final Oscar ballots being due. Greta Gerwig was there, barry Jenkins was there. I believe those interviews might have been conducted on the East Coast and we talk about that idea about the wildfire, sort of you know, being top of mind and top of priority for a lot of west coast voters. I wonder if mike lee does show up there, if sort of the east coast voters that could sort of really resonate with his work, if maybe there's just going to be enough support from them and enough respect for sort of that iconic cinema to get Mike Lee into this race, where I do think we don't have much veteranship.

Joseph:

I mean, even R2-Lock Sean Baker has been making films since 2000,. But Jesse Eisenberg, this is only his second film and this is only the second film of the substance writer Cora Lee, and it's really only the third film of the substance uh, writer Coralie, and it's really only the third film for uh, brady Corbett and Mona, it's only her second screenplay, I believe. Uh, so I think someone of his esteem might just be able to pull off that veteran spot.

Jules:

That is a really good point. And so, to that point, um, those are my predicted five right now a Nora real pain. So, to that point, those are my predicted five right now Onora Real Pain, the Brutalist, the Substance. And in that last spot, because I think the film shouldn't walk out empty-handed, and this is actually the best place for this film to pop up, I'm going, with September 5, to be that last screenplay, original screenplay spot. Those are my five, and my spoiler would be Mike Lee for Heart Truths.

Joseph:

I think I would go with the exact same five as well Onora, A Real Pain, the Substance, the Brutalist and September 5. And my spoiler would also be Mike Lee. I'm really hesitant to leave off a veteran and I'm very tempted to think that there's probably just too many nominations coming to the Brutalist. That makes me feel like we may be possibly looking at a final nomination reveal that has Brady Corbett in director and Coralie snubbed and Coralie in screenplay and Brady Corbett, anda snubbed from screenplay in favor of a veteran, in favor of a piece that is possibly more writer friendly that's interesting, I think that's a good point, I think that can uh, that seems like something that could definitely happen.

Jules:

Um, okay, so we have more or less the same five in the spoiler, and so let's move on now to best adapted screenplay, which is a tricky category, trickier than original screenplay in many ways, I think, off the top of my head. In my opinion, there are two locks and one extreme likely. The extreme likely one we'll get into in a minute, is kind of odd for a particular reason, but I want to say that the locks are conclave and a complete unknown for. For best adapted screenplay, and the the strange likely is emilia paris, because it's a musical, and this, the writers branch, has really stepped away from nominating musicals in this category for a long time. I believe the last time that they nominated a screenplay and adapted was Chicago in 2002 and was the eventual Best Picture winner, and an original screenplay was La La Land in 2016.

Jules:

And I think both of those films stand out to me in a manner that is attention calling, because the musical numbers in those films are sort of they exist, separate from the dialogue and the plot that's developing.

Jules:

So there's sort of you know, a dedicated moment to this song that's being performed, but in Amoeba Perez and in Wicked they follow more of a traditional musical sort of structure, in that, you know, there's a lot of sing-talk and I think writers tend to at least in the modern age, they tend to like that less.

Jules:

That's why you won't see a film like Les Miserables land on this as for screenplay, despite getting several nominations land on this as for screenplay, despite getting several nominations. And so I think it's odd to see a film like Amelia Perez do as well in screenplay, considering those factors we mentioned, but it's done really well. It's odd to get a film, a musical, nominated in the best screenplay category in the Globes, and it managed that. It's gotten the BAFTA nomination. I mean, the Paris seems like a force to be reckoned with. As a whole, it seems to be a film that's going to do really well on Oscar nomination morning and so, taking all those things into account, as odd as it is, I think that Emilia Perez will break the streak that has been there in this category since 2002 and in the original screenplay category since 2016, of being a proper musical that is nominated for screenplay.

Joseph:

I agree that it is a very tough call because, again, I think writers this isn't the 1950s anymore or the 1960s anymore and writers have been very skeptical about inviting musicals into this category.

Joseph:

There's something about in a musical such as Emilia Perez when they are sort of expressing the story through song. Well, as a writer, the way you experience that and the way you sort of analyze that is okay. Well, is that lyrics or is that dialogue? And the writer is responsible for one more than the other, possibly both, but certainly for one. You credit the dialogue to the writer, you credit the dialogue to the writer and you credit the lyrics to the lyricists. Sometimes the writer director has a hand in the lyrics, but as a writer, I think you're looking for dialogue and I think that the creativity of Amelia Perez is really going for it. I think it's very innovative and different and it's going to strike a lot of writers. But I do think it still has that element of sort of singing songing its own right sort of you know dialogue that's going to be a turnoff to some of them.

Joseph:

Add to that that the actual source material is somewhat anonymous and somewhat vague. I think that that might also be a factor here, right? Because I I do do think that writers, especially in the adapted screenplay category and we'll talk about this with other contenders they're not just analyzing you know the work that the screenwriter did, and that they're not just analyzing the story and the elements of the screenplay, but they're also, to a certain extent, judging the material you're coming from, right.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

So, you know, a very popular work that's. That's going to factor in. If it's, uh, a more anonymous work, that's probably going to factor in as well. Right? The other thing, I think, is that emilia perez, I think they're crediting jacques odiard for the script here, and I think that there was a little bit of a collaboration with others, other french writers who I think are a little bit more prominent in France, possibly internationally. So I do think a lot of international writers are going to really push this title towards the top.

Joseph:

To me it's more the American writers. Are the American writers, and certainly the American independent writers, are they going to list this title high enough? Because not only is it sure it's a very creative title, but not only is it a musical where it has elements that may be a turnoff, like lyrics instead of dialogue, but it's also somewhat messy messy structurally and maybe it's not something that a writer is going to want to nominate. Again, writers tend to be that sort of branch where they're really looking for something like authenticity, and so that may be a factor here. So I'm not entirely sold that it's going to be able to break, you know, that streak or that dry spell, and to that point. I will say the last two films to do it, and that's 2002 and 2016, so that's 14 years between, and this year would be 2016 to 2024. That's almost 10. The last films to do it came from academy award nominated writers right and in bill conan's case.

Joseph:

An academy award winning writer right, and that may just be. The difference is that jacques ariard has not been embraced by the academy. They did not nominate a prophet, or russ and bone or their sisters brothers for screenplay right, I think that's a really good point.

Jules:

Yeah, that's a good point, and on a similar note, I think the same is true for Wicked, another musical that some people think might have a shot here for screenplay. I don't think again that I think the branch is moving away from highlighting musical adaptations, certainly Broadway musical adaptations, and in the event that they were open to it, I highly doubt that there would be two. The last time that there were several, I believe, was in the 50s with Interrupted Melody, always Fair Weather and Seven Little Foys, which got nominated in 1955 in an original screenplay 1964 too.

Joseph:

Mary Poppins, yes, exactly.

Jules:

And so it's been a minute, and so I highly doubt that they would highlight both of them. So I think Amita Perez's strength in this category really goes to Wicked's detriment.

Joseph:

Yeah.

Jules:

I don't know if you agree.

Joseph:

I agree with that. I think 1964 is the last time you had two musicals in screenplay. They both happened to be Best Picture nominees. Interestingly enough, I believe one of them was based on the musical my Fair Lady, and Mary Poppins was a musical adaptation of a literary text, not unlike Camila Perez. But I do think that there just is not room for both since 1964.

Jules:

Right Perez, but I do think that there just is not room for both since 1964.

Jules:

Right, and also two films that I like to talk about together because they have a similar issue, is Sing Sing and Nickel Boys. In that, you know, they've underperformed in this award season and screenplay seems to be one of the only categories, or one of the very few categories, where they can get spotlighted, especially a film like nickel boys, which doesn't have an acting contender or acting contenders to sort of prop up, while sing sing does have that possibility at. Those two films, I think, have a good chance of making this category on that basis alone, them being, uh, two critically acclaimed films. Certainly, nickel Boys is one of the most revered films of the year and, this being one of the few spots where they can actually get a spotlight, I think that'll go a long way to getting those films this nomination. Again, nickel Boys should work out with something, considering that it's one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year and it got that golden globe nomination for best picture. Um, and same thing with sing sing.

Joseph:

They should get something and this is the perfect place opportunity to do so well, I agree with that and and to that point you know we talked about that streak that bafta has incorporating all 10 screenplay nominees. On the adapted adapted side, the nominees for BAFTA were A Complete Unknown and Conclave, which we're calling Lox. They did include Emilia Perez, which is a very positive sign, although they did nominate Moulin Rouge for original screenplay in 2001. And then their final two spots they rounded out the list with both Nickel Boys and.

Joseph:

Sing Sing In the case of Nickel Boys, it was its only nomination and I think it was its only long list mention, I believe. So sing sing had a couple of mentions and it was actually able to get a couple nominations as well, but it did land in adapted screenplay and so, as we said, bafta is really good at getting at least four nominees, three to four nominees among their screenplay nominees, but among their, their long list they should have all five. And if you want to hear for a second, who their other films were, the films that didn't make it, there are a couple of films, or some films that I think we can both agree are a bridge too far, and that's something like Night Bitch, the Outrun and Lee.

Joseph:

Those were shortlisted or long list, I should say, for adapted screenplay, but there's very little traction for any of those films to get in.

Jules:

The final two were Wicked, which we spoke a little bit about, and then I think the last one we have to speak a little bit about, which is Dune, part two yeah, exactly, and Dune part two is a question mark because, following the success of Dune, certainly financially, but also with the first Dune, with nominations and wins you would think that you know they would cap off this chapter of Denis Villeneuve and his filmmakers, his crew, for Dune as a franchise. They would cap it off with a nomination for several things, including screenplay. It got an eye for screenplay last time, despite some critics saying that you know, know they weren't the biggest fans of the script. They got an eye for script last time. But it's worth wondering if the writers branch, like some, some so many other categories for, uh, dune, if they're going to feel like you know, been there, done that exactly. We did that recently. We can highlight new work.

Joseph:

Yeah, um, we don't have to nominate the same writers for part two exactly so that's the, that's the handicap for dune part two right now yeah, you and I had talked about this idea of a symmetrical sort of nature to the nominations you receive, and so it looks like this year you might very well see dune reap nominations in categories where it's an absolute favorite, like cinematography, and categories where it lost right unnecessarily that first time it lost a competitive race, for example in makeup, and then in races where they were left off altogether, and that's something like director right for denevo new, rather than those categories where it was already nominated, like adapted screenplay or costume design right.

Joseph:

So I think you're right. I think something that's really hurting Dune 2 is just the fact that again splitting the movie into two and this is something that Warner Brothers will have to debate how effective it was it sort of has watered down the amount of success that this second part can have right now to sort of to sort of piggyback on that.

Joseph:

Not only was dune too long listed by bafta, the writers guild award nominees were a complete unknown nickel boys, wicked dune, part two and their last nominee was a bit of a surprise, even though you and I had figured that this movie would be a factor at some point in the race. I don't know if you think it's a little too late, but I don't think you can ever dismiss this writer. And that's hitman with richard linklater and glenn powell right, I thought that that would make more noise.

Jules:

Certainly it was pretty quiet. I think that that uh, that nomination in the uh writers guild has a lot to do with the amount of disqualifications that were involved yeah so I think you can't discount that that's a film that sort of has fallen under the radar alongside another film like the Room Next Door, which you would think a Pedro Almodovar film that wins Venice would land somewhere. But it's just been way too quiet.

Joseph:

First English language film, his first English language film yes.

Jules:

Feature film yeah, and you would think that that would land somewhere, but it hasn't. It just hasn't penetrated that conversation strongly enough and I thought for the longest time it was a big shoo-in for this category. I could see writers liking the themes that Paige was tackling in this film, and I know writers are fans of Pedro Almodovar in this film, um, and I know writers are fans of pedro amoldovar, um, but apparently it's just not. It's just not going in that direction.

Joseph:

It's a little too quiet. Well, something going for it is the fact that if you have to sort of you know, determine which movie is going to be more to their liking, you have a very unconventional adaptation in nickel boys, and then you have a very unconventional adaptation in Nickel Boys, and then you have a much more conventional adaptation, albeit very artistic, very much in Almodovar style in.

Joseph:

The Room Next Door and you know we've talked about Sony Picture, classics, magic throughout the season and other categories. They have the Room Next Door and they are very passionate about campaigning on mode of art. It did not make the BAFTA long list in any category, which is a bad sign. But it did not make the bafta long list in any category, which is a bad sign. But it was nominated at the european film awards and we've talked about possibly a greater impact, a greater impact from the international community.

Joseph:

And sony pictures has another title that's eligible in this category and that seems like a surefire nominee for foreign language film, and foreign language films have been embraced by the writing branch of the academy and this year we have the very unconventional emilia perez, which happens to be a musical.

Joseph:

But then you have this other almost surefire nominee for foreign language film, I'm still here. That is a really solid script, a more conventional script, but it's really well done, really solidly written, and you kind of have to wonder, maybe if they decide to go elsewhere and look for another type of foreign language film. I'm Still here might be the perfect option and it does have Sony Picture Classics behind it, much like the Almodovar sort of could represent a foreign vote, even though it's an English language film. And we've talked about this idea we had mentioned it that sometimes you're judging the work that you're adapting and the work of I'm still here, whether it's the work of sigrid nunez for a room next door or the pulitzer winning work of nickel boys, and what is an unconventional film that might be able to eclipse the more anonymous work that emilia perez is based on right.

Jules:

I think that's a really good point. I think I'm still here as a big dark horse in this category. Well, with all that in mind, I would say that right now, I'm going to go with the BAFTA 5 for best adapted screenplay. Conclave, a Complete Unknown, amelia Perez, sing Sing and Nickel Boys and my spoiler is I'm still here.

Joseph:

I think that's very interesting. I think I would go with the same the BAFTA 5. Also, it would be a nomination for Nickel Boys which, as I said, with that Golden Globe Drama nomination, it should clock in somewhere. So I would go Conclave, sing, sing A Complete Unknown Nickel Boys, and I guess I would have to include Emilia Perez, even though my gut is telling me that I will not make it at the end, that the musical factor would just be too much and my spoiler I think I'm Still here is an excellent choice. But if not I'm Still here, then I think the other great choice would be Amadovar for the Room Next Door.

Jules:

Right, okay, well, that is our predictions, our final predictions for the best original screenplay and the best adapted screenplay categories. You can check out our final, final, final predictions on Twitter at Academy Anon. Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for joining us. I'm Jules.

Joseph:

And I'm Joseph. You've been listening to Academy Anonymous.

Jules:

And it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg. Licenses by 3.0.

Joseph:

Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.