Academy Anonymous
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions; A Makeup Longlist Heavy on Genre and Light on "Reality"; A Costume Consensus Without A Period Front-Runner
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- "Conclave" Costume Designer FINALLY breaks into Costume Designers Guild - but will it be enough to overcome the "Contemporary Curse"
- Jacqueline West falls short at BAFTA as "Dune, Part 2" loses ground
- "Wicked" the perfect recipe for Costume & Production Design crossover nods
- Robert Eggers and Linda Muir welcomed into BAFTA & CDG - "Nosferatu" looking good to double-up on Costumes & Makeup
- After FINALLY returning with a nod for last year's "Napoleon," can the Costume Designer of "Gladiator 2" go back-to-back?
- Arianne Phillips' BAFTA-"bounce-back" a promising sign for "A Complete Unknown" after guild and Makeup snub.
- Can Tim Burton's Makeup effects give "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" an edge in the Makeup category
- As actress campaign stumbles, can "Maria" still reap nods Below-The-Line
- "The Substance" looking like the favorite for Makeup but is the team too unfamiliar for Academy voters
- "Emilia Perez" the rare international title to make Makeup guild - a positive sign or a red-herring
- In Makeup, where performance matters, at least one nod featuring the work of "Man of a Thousand Faces" Sebastian Stan looks promising
- All signs point to Makeup voters omitting any work modeled after real-life people. Will voters really go full-genre this year?
hey, welcome back to academy. Anonymous, I'm jules and this is joseph, all right.
Joseph:Well, let's jump into costume design, which is sort of the sister category of both production design and makeup. So voters there are sort of looking at both of those categories to help inform the decisions, along with the decisions that you know, the guilds, the guilds, their sister organizations, have made in the same branches right. So, um, let's start talking about the films that have sort of coalesced into a consensus. This, like production design, has somewhat calcified maybe.
Jules:But I do feel there are less sure things, less sure things here In this category that people are perceiving as sure things. I think there's room here to surprise one or two.
Joseph:All right. Well, let's start off with a couple of films that seem like locks. Wicked seems like a lock, yeah definitely. And it would be the second nomination for the costume designer and that helps.
Jules:Yeah definitely.
Joseph:Let's talk about Dune Part 2, which is kind of interesting right.
Jules:It is interesting because you would think that that's a lock. However, I was really surprised by the BAFTA snub and I wonder if there's something to that. You know, for some reason I can't help but recall the snub that happened at BAFTA last year with screenplay, when Cause of the Flower Moon missed screenplay and that was kind of shocking. That was kind of shocking and that repeated at the Oscars, and so a part of me is wondering is there something occurring here? Why, why the hell would it get snubbed Right From costume design?
Joseph:You're right, I hadn't thought about that, but that's very interesting. I think that, overall, coming into the Guilds month, the month where all or the majority of the Guilds were revealed there was much more anticipation for Dune II to perform better all over the place, and so the BAFTA is no exception, and it might be a symptom of studios like Warner Brothers needing to revise whatever strategy they're coming up with in terms of dividing films into parts one and parts two and, depending on whatever haul, or lack thereof, that Warner Brothers is able to accomplish with Dune II on Oscar morning, if it's on the low end, they're definitely going to have to rethink what their strategy is for Academy Awards, because you got to imagine that to split this movie in two, beyond making money, you would hope that it would carry some momentum into possibly being a film that wins several Academy Awards, and right now it feels like it's going to be lucky to match the number of nominations that Dune Part 1 got and certainly going to have a difficult time matching those wins.
Joseph:So you can only I think if you're makers or campaigners of Dune, you're going to have to sit after Oscar nomination morning, depending on what the outcome is, and really consider did we shoot ourself in the foot here by not making one longer film that possibly could have one best picture over a coda or over power of the dog? Right and I think that it should be a possibly it could be a worrying sign for something like wicked again, part one right which has a part two coming at some point right?
Jules:100, I think you're. I think you're right. But what? Why do you think? You think it got snubbed? Because it came out too early and other titles are sort of competing for attention and it sort of fell by the wayside. Or you think there's something more particular, distinct at work?
Joseph:well, I think that one of the biggest things is just the idea of for Dune 2, every single craft category that is going to make the decision to nominate it again is going to have to consider do I nominate the same caliber of work again? You know I nominated Jacqueline West for the costumes, the excellent costumes, in part one. Did the costumes change a lot between part one and?
Jules:part two there are certainly differences.
Joseph:There are new characters a new world, but is there enough there for me to be nominating this twice? And I think that's a question that is going to be posed not just on voters of the costume designers branches all of the branches, whether it's cinematographers and editors, so you might just end up seeing nominations for dune 2 for those categories, those craft categories, those below those below the line categories for members and branches that thought there was something either really new or just diehard fans of what was there in part one right and I'm afraid that in terms of costume, they just were not big fans of it this time or they didn't see enough substantial change for them to nominate it again Now.
Joseph:I will say that Jacqueline West isn't necessarily a perennial nominee at BAFTA. You know, she's someone who did not get nominated.
Joseph:Example for the revenant at bafta and she did pull off that nomination and I think that part of it is that, unfortunately, there's this element of costume design that tends to favor this concept. I I would, I would assume, of either fantasy period, but there's also this, I think, underlying bias about dressing women, and sometimes jacqueline west can work in these very masculine environments if you think? Of something like the revenant and the work is very detailed, but because, there aren't, you know, lush female characters that you're dressing.
Joseph:Think about the work that jenny beaven does on something like cruella, or even something like, you know, mad max, which again isn't necessarily very feminine. But there's this dystopian element right that's very.
Joseph:You know it's very attention calling attention calling fantasy, and so because the revenant is more, I think, catered around sort of this masculine space I think unfortunately it failed to get that baptist nomination and if you think about something like dune 2, is there a lot of what some people would perceive, you know, as the traditional, you know, female costume fantasy silhouette no, not really this happens to be the category where you're going to nominate a lot of disney princess outfits and how you sort of realize them, and there's a nominee this year in the work of wicked right and the work that goes into galinda right and that's going to be an element that really calls their attention right but sort of these other types of costumes can sometimes sort of be overshadowed by those, and so it might be an element of that, but I don't think that she's a sure thing to show up right, so exactly.
Jules:So I don't consider it a sure thing. Um, I would say the only two films in this category that feel pretty secure to me are wicked, and especially nasferatu, which differs from other categories like makeup, which will get into a second, and production design. I feel pretty sure it's going to get nominated here in costume design. The costume work there really stands out. It'll be her first nomination, even though she works with robert eckers often, um, and I think that, uh, that's a film that they're going to respond to this branch. Um, the costume work is very detailed. Um, that fits the piece really, really beautifully. So I find those to be the two locks.
Joseph:Everyone else is sort of you know, not sure she's very interesting, the costume designer linda muir for nas, for rot too, in the sense that she's been working for a long while and she just as you said, accomplished that guild nomination and I think that's quite a feat for her and I think it is foreshadowing that nomination at the guilds and that nomination at BAFTA that they're going to embrace her work for the first time at the academy right so I agree with you.
Joseph:I think that's in in very you know, very likely territory, even though, again, she's certainly not any type of perennial favorite. It would be her first nomination, right. The other individual that a lot of people are pegging for this award in the consensus more or less, is someone like Liza Kristol for a conclave, and it's sort of interesting right.
Joseph:Number one because, well, liza Kristol is a former nominee and she was nominated for anonymous at the Academy. But when she got that nomination at the Academy, she failed to get the nomination with her own guild and that's kind of strange. Right, so sort of the Academy was ahead of her in that sense.
Joseph:But another reason why people are pegging her for that nomination is because a lot of people had her down to get that nomination in 2022 with her work on All Quiet on the Western Front. They had figured that because she was a former nominee, she would be able to get that nomination for all quiet again another very masculine space, right where she was not nominated for the guild yet again. Um, she was nominated at bafta and so people had pegged her to get that nomination, but it failed to get that nomination, possibly because some of the designers sort of thought that her work sort of melded so fluidly into the production design that maybe there was only need to nominate the production design and the cinematography and the costumes could wait, but technically you would think that a film that gets cinematography, production, design, makeup would certainly lead into costume.
Joseph:At the same time, you have to keep into account that of all those teams, she's the only one with a nomination at that point. And when she gets that nomination, she still doesn't even have her first guild nomination.
Jules:Right right.
Joseph:And so something going against this piece is that it is a contemporary piece, which is again something that costume designers do not rush to nominate. You have to think of things like again, la La Land with Mary Sophries, the Devil. The devil wears prada, which is about fashion, and so that's something working against conclave and costume design as well as production design.
Jules:Right also, as you were saying the point about, they're not a lot of women in that film and so it's a very masculine space another masculine space, a lot of dressing men right in particular which is sort of interesting, right, because it's a very masculine space, but it's also a very intricately fashion space.
Joseph:And you can, you know, make of that whatever you will, but it's kind of interesting to see this masculine space that has all this I don't know detail and beading and color we could talk about that for days, but I think that that helps that. You know, it's possibly the most again interesting, colorful yeah you know, detail-oriented, overt, I would say, masking space available compared to something like the revenant or something like or something quiet or oppenheimer or even something like oppenheimer, which last year was dressing a lot of men exactly
Joseph:they did get in and she did get in for the first time and she has famously never been nominated, but the film was just enough of a best picture contender. But that was a period piece, right. But I think what really bodes well for lisa crystal getting her second oscar nomination is that she was finally invited to her guild with her with the guild nomination. It was her first guild nomination, which is a big accomplishment yeah and she could possibly even win that category.
Joseph:So I think all signs are pointing to her finally getting that second nomination. And, you know, maybe we talk about symmetrical years maybe this is the year where conclave is able to manage edward berger's first nomination into costume with lisa cristo who's been there, and maybe they'll fail to get that nomination for production design, because he got that with aqua in the western front, possibly.
Jules:So that's a possibility, right, possibly. And uh, on the note of people who, uh, artists who were nominated last year gladiator 2 was a nominee last year for um, napoleon right team was nominated last year for nap for Napoleon, and so that's one reason why I'm really skeptical about them getting another nomination back to back for Gladiator 2. I personally don't think it's going to happen. Maybe if Napoleon hadn't been there, I think it would have a better shot. What do you think?
Joseph:Well, I agree with you. I think that that nomination for the costume designer of Gladiator 2 with Napoleon is going to complicate her chances this year. This is something that we also talked about in production design is sort of working against Arthur Max in the production design category.
Joseph:They got nominated as a pair last year, but the costume designer specifically has only ever been nominated beforehand for gladiator, and so she was finally able to get that second nomination at the academy for something like napoleon. You have to wonder if they are. So they have so much urgency to nominate her for a third straight away, right? She doesn't have as as noted as a name as some of her other peers who have had third, fourth, fourth or fifth nominations already, and so I do think that's something working against her.
Joseph:But it does show that, in terms of someone like Lisa Crystal, again, when the costume designer I think it's Ellen Miroshnik and the costume designer of Gladiator 2, the costume designers for Oppenheimer and for Napoleon are finally able to break in, I think it does show that they're at a moment right now, the costume designers where they're rethinking these costume designers that they've left off the list for a long time, or possibly for forever, and so they're really open to giving Ellen her first nomination for Oppenheimer it's the best picture movie and they're really open to giving the costume designer of Napoleon, who is also a costume designer of Gladiator 2, her second nomination in X amount of years, even if it's not a best picture movie.
Joseph:But I do think that something complicating her chances this year is the idea that are they ready to not just nominate her a second time for Napoleon, but they're ready to nominate her back to back for Napoleon and now for Gladiator?
Jules:too I agree.
Joseph:I also think again, it's yet another really masculine space and I feel like now we're getting into an area where maybe the category is just too masculine. Yeah, I agree, right, and that should definitely be a red flag to people.
Jules:Right and Blitz got the BAFTA nomination. I don't think right now it's strong enough to get nominated into this lineup. What about you?
Joseph:Well, I think it's interesting that it was able to pull off that BAFTA nomination because it got so few others right. It would have been interesting to see if it had gotten costume design and production design.
Joseph:But, even if it got costume design. It makes you wonder if, again, the idea of it being too much of a masculine space is sort of popping its head, rearing its head, and we want to be able to, you know, design costumes for women as well. So I do think it's interesting. Jacqueline Duran if she were to get nominated for this, it would be her 10th nomination, and so there would be something very interesting about that. She has been someone capable of getting a nomination for her work as the only thing her film is nominated for remember Cyrano yeah, um, I don't think it's a done deal.
Joseph:I think that BAFTA nomination certainly presents her as a dark horse, but let's talk about her collaborator on Cyrano, who got a nomination alongside with her, who's eligible this year for his work in Maria right and that's uh, massimo. And so what do you think about maria possibly making it into this list? I mean, we're talking about very little female energy that this category requires.
Jules:I like the. I like that we're costuming women particularly callous. Um, I am interested in that. It was nominated for its guild and I think initially I thought it stood a really good chance to win its category in the guild the costume designers guild, um, and by winning its category I think it would make it a shoe in to get nominated. That being said, someone was really left out of that category. Uh, that was surprising, was a complete unknown. Maybe they would have won had they been in that category. And now, as the buzz for maria has really died down a lot following the the sort of dying down of angelina jolie's chances, as we had pointed out earlier in our podcast, um, before those snubs started to occur I feel that it's become harder to see that film winning that category in that guild and more likely, possibly something like Nosferatu winning that category. So right now I don't think that I see Maria having enough of a chance to break in here.
Joseph:It's interesting. I mean it sort of brings us into another major contender, which is A Complete Unknown, as you had mentioned. So, we talked about needing that female energy and maria fits that to a t but we're also going to need some real energy, some energy of something historical or biographical right maria certainly fits that to a t, but so does a complete unknown, and a complete unknown was able to get that bafta right and so there's sort of this symmetry going on right between maria and a complete exactly, yeah they're sort of you know, crossing each other in terms of what they're trying to campaign on or or distinguish themselves on.
Joseph:And so maria gets its guild nomination for period right and is, uh, costuming real people, and then a complete unknown gets the bafta nomination for, again, costuming real people. Both costume designers have been nominated before.
Jules:Arian phil is probably a little bit more and, interestingly enough, arian phil was nominated with her last collaboration with mangled with james mangled for walk the line. Yeah, so there's a symmetry there, right? Um, and she was not nominated at the bafta for walk the line. Oh wow, yeah, I'm pretty sure. Don't call me, but I'm almost pretty sure that she was not.
Joseph:Oh, that's very interesting and so, yes, she was snubbed from her guild. Possibly that was because they did not have an opportunity to see it.
Joseph:Some of those earlier announcing guilds including costumes and film editors, did not list the complete unknown, but since it's gained so much steam, one can only assume that maybe they weren't as widely viewed by that point when the guild announced. But there's been this idea that there have been films to show up late or to get snubbed by the costume designers guild that are able to sort of muster like a bafta bounce back after they get a bafta nomination, and so I'm thinking of someone like jacqueline duron, who got snubbed by her guild for Little Women in 2019. But she was able to get a BAFTA nomination for her work on Little Women.
Joseph:And that led to an Oscar nomination and then an Oscar win, right? So the lack of a guild nomination for a complete unknown?
Jules:is not a death sentence Exactly.
Joseph:Someone else to do it is someone like Sandy Powell for the Irishman, and someone like Mary Zoffries, I believe, for Ballad of Buster Scruggs. It's important that all of them are former nominees. But Arianne Phillips is a former nominee, so she's in a perfect position to sort of take that BAFTA nomination and translate that into an Oscar nomination 100% I agree, and it would really help us sort of fulfill that requirement of having a sort of historical biographical film within here.
Jules:Right, I agree. I know another contender, possibly Beetlejuice. Beetlejuice got a Costume Designers Guild nomination. I'm not seeing it so much for that film. Same thing with Furiosa. I think Furiosa should be on this list, but is not going to be on this list. Furiosa, I think Furiosa should be on this list but is not going to be on this list. Purphree Contenders the Substance yeah, a bunch of Purphree Contenders, but I feel like that's the main. Those are the main. That's the main group. What do you think?
Joseph:Well, I think that I agree. I think you have Colleen Atwood in Beetlejuice, beetlejuice and Tim Burton, of course, a favorite in costume design. Is there enough work there? I think that ever since Colleen Atwood won an Oscar for one of the fantastic creatures, films Betty.
Joseph:Redmayne. I think she sort of has been sort of left out of this list because she has now been rewarded so abundantly. But her work is always great and Tim Burton's always going to be something that costume designers check out. As same thing for jenny beaven and furiosa, which I 100 agree with you should be on there. Fantastic work again. So well rewarded. Nominations for miss harris goes to paris, nomination for cruella and a win for cruella and mad max, so she's just been so abundantly rewarded.
Joseph:Both those films, I think, would have needed their production designers alongside with them to go the distance in terms of securing a nomination. Um, you bring up something like the substance, which I'm afraid is just too contemporary, much like amelia perez. Both those films well done, but are going to be left out of production designers and costume designers. But there is one title that is a period piece that you would think maybe could figure in here, because the category is a little bit thin, but I don't know. What are your thoughts about something like the brutalist crashing this list?
Jules:you know, I'm not, I'm, I'm not sure I see the brutalist making it into this list. Um, for some reason in that film, possibly because there's so much attention being put to other aspects of that film, but the costume designing, although, uh, fitting the period, uh, more than well. Um, wasn't the thing, wasn't a a technical element that I walked away, that I walked away with. What about about you?
Joseph:I would agree, and I think, more importantly, the filmography of the costume designer is a little bit, uh, thinner or behind compared to the other contenders in this category, and I think that's really the most difficult thing, maybe if it was a costume designer like Linda Muir who's? Been doing it a little bit longer, she'd have a little bit more of an edge. But, as we said, it a little bit longer, she'd have a little bit more of an edge.
Jules:But, as we said, you know, costume designers are going to look at those films that are listed for cinematography and production design.
Joseph:The brutalist is going to be one of those right? Um, it's also a period piece, but it also reminds you of something like uh, everything everywhere all at once, in the sense that no one was really expecting it to show up there, but it's able to show up there because it is a major contender, and it's not in cinematography, it's not in production design, it's not in makeup, but it is a huge best picture movie.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:And it is an eclectic sort of display of costume work.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:But it also brings me up to that idea that you know we do not have a short list for costume design. But maybe the next best thing we can do is look at the BAFTA long list and look at the guild nominations to sort of narrow down who we think can sort of fill out this field If we feel like maybe we have a little too much masculine energy or we don't have enough biographical material.
Joseph:If you look at the BAFTA long list, the BAFTA nominees in and of themselves I think they end up showing maybe three to four nominees sort of go from being BAFTA nominees to Oscar nominees. But if you look at the long list from BAFTA ever since they've been published, you'll find even more sort of overlap, and so there you can sort of maybe get four to possibly five nominees that are going to be at the Oscars. And if that's the case again, the BAFTA nominees this year were Blitz, jacqueline Duran A Complete Unknown Arianne Phillips, conclave, nosferatu and Wicked and a lot of those sound good, but the movies that came up short that maybe could reveal who can spoil any one of those films is Dune II with Jacqueline West, um with shakini west.
Joseph:Previous nominee beetlejuice, beetlejuice, emilia perez furiosa and gladiator 2. I will say so not even the brutalist, not even the brutalist right. Um, but again, the back to long list did not have everything everywhere all at once nor did they have a film from massimo, which was pinocchio, right, right, um. So I do think they're not going to be perfect. They don't have to be perfect.
Joseph:Maybe there's a dark horse here that we're not even too aware of, but I do think that it's interesting that the BAFTA nominees, four of them are veterans and you have one newbie, nosferatu and Linda Muir looks pretty secure to get that nomination, and of the five that were left out, the only newbie is Emilia Perez, and I think that it's far off from a nomination, but any one of those veterans can steal a spot, whether it's Dune II, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, Furiosa Gladiator 2.
Jules:If you had to choose one. Which one do you like?
Joseph:the most to steal a spot. Dune 2, for sure. Dune 2, jacqueline West I would agree with that. And if we look at the guild for the costume designers, you have Imperium. You have the Book of Clarence, which was one of my favorite films of the year, which was absolutely fantastic. I'd love to see this nomination. You have Maria Gliator 2, nas for rottu and saturday night saturday night from danny glicker. He's a former nominee too, and this is again, interestingly enough, another one of those historical biographical elements that the category could really use. Yeah, um, and so people are pegging from there really only nas for rottu and some people gladiator too, but we've sort of said that that doesn't sound that great. Right, a back-to-back nomination, but from period, traditionally you would see three to four films nominated, and right now, how many are you pegging from there? I believe you're only pegging one Nosferatu.
Jules:Yeah, you know, that's true. I only have Nosferatu right now.
Joseph:That technically is a little bit off? I don't think it's impossible, but it's a little bit off. They do have some off years. Maybe this is one of those. Like I said, maybe they just did not see a complete unknown with enough time and for some reason, both the designers for costumes and production designers did not like Blitz for this category.
Jules:Are they average? Three or two to three? Three to four, three to four really, so not even two.
Joseph:Not even two, but it is possible. I think something like in 2016, when you had Jackie and Florence Foster Jenkins I think those might have been the only two, because I think Allied was snubbed and then you had La La Land, which is a contemporary piece, and so it does. It can happen, but it's not what usually happens. You should be looking for three to four, and then on the fantasy side is where you should be looking for one to two. Right, and the fantasy nominees were wicked, which seems like a no-brainer beetlejuice. Beetlejuice. Borderlands is far away, furiosa is far away, but dune 2 looks pretty good, so you can take two from there as well. Um, the only problem is that right now, you're just taking one from period instead of taking both nosferatu and maria, for example right um.
Joseph:And then you have contemporary, which is emilia perez. The substance fall guy, challengers and conclave, and most people, including yourself, are pegging for conclave to get in but again, not an easy thing to do to be a contemporary film and get one of those spots. I mean we're pegging that lisa crystal between her first guild nomination and get the spot having been snubbed for aqua on the and concrete being such a big, being such a big contender possibly being there in cinematography and production design, that that's going to be the winning uh recipe or formula for her to get in.
Joseph:Um, there should definitely be some overlap between costume design and makeup, and so if we look at the makeup shortlist for the academy and we maybe, you know, sort of cross out some of those titles that are going to have a very difficult time making a dent here because of the nature of the film or that they're very contemporary pieces. We can take away, for example, emilia perez and the substance, but we can also almost assuredly take away the apprentice, a different man right waltzing with brando.
Joseph:We just have a handful of titles that are sort of wrestling for what should be, on average, two movies to show up in makeup and costume. Now, it can go as little as one, although most of the time it's two, and it's even gone as high as four, and maybe that's the kind of year we're in. I'll tell you what the titles are now, but in 2020, it went all the way up to four.
Joseph:Granted, it was a pandemic year, so you have to, you know, put an asterisk next to that, but the titles would be wicked, which looks really good for it and as far out, to which we're pegging for it. And then there's beetlejuice, beetlejuice dune and maria right right and so not very often do they get three. So if we're sort of saying that wicked and as far out to other films to sort of bridge makeup and costume, then maybe we are going to see dune be a makeup nominee and not a costume nominee, even though that's not what I'm thinking right now right.
Jules:I think that's a really good point. On that note, I think my final predictions for costume design are going to be wicked, and us, for our two, I'm going to go with conclave, for sure. I'm going to go with a complete unknown and for that last spot, I think I'm going to go with dune part two I think that's five for five what I'm pegging.
Joseph:Wicked seems like a lock nos for raw team seems like it's going to happen. Conclave should beat the Curse of the Contemporary. And then I really do think that the BAFTA bounce back is a thing and that Arian Phillips will be able to ride that into a nomination for a complete unknown. And finally, I'm not sure I see anyone that is compelling enough to knock off Dune Part 2. And maybe this is just a year where we're going to have more than two nominees, both in makeup and in costume. Or maybe, just maybe, makeup is so competitive with contemporary titles that we might see a couple of perceived favorites like Wicked or Nosferatu maybe not make that list.
Jules:Right, right. I completely agree.
Joseph:And so if you had to pick a spoiler for those five, who would you pick right now?
Jules:as a spoiler, I think I'd go.
Joseph:I'd go, blitz yeah, I think blitz might make a lot of sense. I think maria is right there yeah but it's such a limited, you know, wardrobe in the sense that it takes place over a very few number of days and also very limited cast of characters. It's hard for me to think that jacqueline Duran could not get in for her excellent costuming in Pablo Larraín Spencer right but Massimo is going to be able to get in for the costuming in Maria right so I think I would go with Blitz too okay, and that's our dive into our final predictions for costume design.
Joseph:Let's take a look at the category of best makeup and hairstyling, and we have a short list there, or a long list, I should say, to help us sort of narrow down this field. It's already incredibly narrowed down. Keep in mind that this category is usually determined by bake-off, something like the visual effects category is, and the visual effects branch the wildfires might have complicated that issue, so I don't know what impact that might have.
Joseph:Let's start digging into some of these semi-finalists, um, and some of them look really good and very promising, and I'm just going to run through them all because I do think this is a category where there's maybe some false confidence in people in terms of how it's going to end up. So let's start with the substance. Right, which is a best picture favorite? Um, one of the few ones on this list. You know it's a genre film. Yeah, I think this.
Jules:I think that film is locked for this nomination I think it looks pretty good for a lock.
Joseph:I think the Achilles heel here is that the team is not really well known, I think, to the Academy, so that's something to look out for if something happens there, I mean. The other thing is genre bias. This would be. This is certainly pushing the genre envelope for traditional Academy of voters, even in a makeup branch. When you see a movie like anything from david cronenberg, shortlisted or long listed in this category, I should say it's not very often that the david cronenberg film ends up with a nomination.
Joseph:The popularity, the substance, could prove the difference maker, but that's just something to be aware of right then there's wicked right, which has to be a big favorite here, like blockbuster, musical, um, a lot of the sort of background hair work that's going on, but I imagine a lot of it is also the makeup work done on cynthia revo right. It's going to be the big calling card for the film.
Joseph:And then there's nasferatu, which is interesting because this is one sort of category that really does welcome the sort of classic monster monster movies of the past and nasferatu, of course, has its origin in the early silent film, and so that's going to be something that, traditionally, the branch would be very excited for, you know the character of dracula has been on here multiple times, right, so that's something to look out for.
Joseph:Then you have something like beetlejuice. Beetlejuice, right, which has to be a favorite tim burden in this category, has done extraordinarily well. The first beetlejuice, a nominee, a winner. It has qualified once again. A couple of interesting things there. Um, dune part two is shortlisted here, uh, which is interesting in the sense that it lost this award, one of the few losses it had in 2021, when it lost to tammy faye.
Jules:I thought that was a controversial loss and the very interesting thing is that it got snubbed from the makeup, makeup and hairstylist guild.
Joseph:Right, and we're going to start cross-referencing these films with the films that actually got spotlighted there. But to finish running down the list, you also have A Different man, which is terribly, terribly edgy, I would say, for what the Academy would go for. But you do see some, like I said, david Cornerbrook films show up here, so I'm not surprised to see it on the long list, right, but certainly, as you start talking about certain vulnerabilities in films and campaigns, there's something kind of interesting going on with a different man in the sense that, well, first of all it's sort of a genre piece.
Joseph:It's certainly an independent film, a very idiosyncratic film right right at the same, it's doing this amazing sort of makeup job on Sebastian Stan, who won a Golden Globe for his performance here, but you kind of lose the makeup work maybe halfway into the movie right, which is possibly a vulnerability here.
Joseph:And the other aspect is, you know, as sebastian stan said, there is some part of this film that is tackling this element of disfigurement right and we've seen that play out well for this branch in films, for example, like wonder and films like mask. And the problem here is that this movie is much more challenging. Possibly it's not based on a true story or anything, but it is taboo, pushing in the best of ways. I really love the film, one of my favorite films of the year.
Jules:Yeah, I really like that film as well. Including a different man here in this category is very interesting because obviously the film is dealing with characters that are struggling with neurofibromatosis and that's not something that you see often portrayed in film and recognized in this category, and there's very distinct work being done in sort of the facial disfigurement of Sebastian Stan's character, and I just think it's a very interesting aspect, dynamic, that doesn't often get included into this category, that I think they would like to spotlight.
Joseph:That's possible. I do wonder if there's going to be part of them that are probably would rather avoid it. I do think it maybe brings up some interesting questions as to you know, what we get, what's possible with makeup. I certainly think it's the kind of film where had it been in the bake-off it would have been such a striking inclusion on the list right, and the work, how he was able to accomplish the makeup work would have been very attention calling. It would have been something very boundary pushing and possibly very exciting for members to see. But since we're unsure as to what part the Bake Off played in the process, you know the movie in and of itself could sort of get lost among these bigger, more notable titles. Another movie to talk about is Emilia perez, and that should be a favorite for so many categories it's included here.
Joseph:This is maybe one of the few categories where it should not be a favorite right that said, it did get a surprising nomination at bafta and we'll dig into those nominees in a little bit um. And then the final three inclusions on this list I think were surprising to a lot of people and I think they've also been possibly unfairly sort of dismissed as contenders in this category and that's maria with angie and julie the apprentice with sebastian stan again sebastian stan, sort of being the man of a thousand faces this year, which is great.
Joseph:Uh, two wonderful films, two wonderful makeup jobs, and then you have waltzing with brando, which was really sort of left field choice, but really nice to see also well, it makes sense also also. It really does. It really does, and it looks like they did a one hell of a makeup job there.
Jules:I haven't seen the film yet I don't know when it's going to be distributed but it certainly looks like a great makeup job again.
Joseph:That bake off, I think, might have been the difference maker for some of these films yeah um, keep in mind that when it comes to makeup, they're nominating the team, and so I do think we're going to see in this category a couple of new individuals, new uh nominees, but we are going to see a substantial amount, I think, of previous nominees and I think it's worth breaking down. You know where they all stand in that regard. So we have the substance right, which I think is, as you said, one of the locks in this category. But no one on that team has been nominated for an Oscar before. A lot of international, I think, artisans on that team, as is it's sort of sister project because, again, it's sort of a French film, sort of not a French film. The substance is sort of a French film, sort of a British film, sort of not a French film. The Substance is sort of a French film, sort of a British film, sort of an American film. Amelia Perez is sort of a Mexican film, a French film shot in Australia, spanish actors, so it's sister sort of project. Amelia Perez from Cannes. Also, its team doesn't have any individuals who were nominated previously. So I think that's kind of interesting. And then, of course, the Waltzing with Brando team has not been nominated either for an Oscar, although I do think there are some people who have some pretty steep credits when it comes to something like Emmys. So that's interesting.
Joseph:And then, if you look at someone like Wicked, who's also kind of a favorite here, there's really only one individual on its team who has reaped one nomination and a win for that nomination. Then you have the team of the Apprentice, which also has one nomination between them, I think, on the hair side. At the same time, the filmmaker, the director, ali Abassi, has gotten other films nominated here, I think Border in 2018. So I think the branch is familiar with his type of work. Then you have, for example, speaking of Sebastian Stan. You have A Different man of sebastian stan. You have a different man and, uh, the prosthetics designer, I believe, there has two nominations to his filmography.
Joseph:You have the nasferatu team, I think has an individual of two nominations to their filmography, and you have the beetlejuice beetlejuice team right, which I think has a couple of people, one with a win and a nomination, I believe. And then it's kind of interesting because it listed among beetlejuice's team right, which I think has a couple of people one with a win and a nomination, I believe and then it's kind of interesting because it listed among Beetlejuice's credits for makeup is Neil Scanlon, who famously has a bunch of accolades from the Academy on the visual effects side. So I think Warner Brothers and the team of Beetlejuice really wants to highlight the special effects makeup work on the film. I don't know if that's going to be an element that is a turn on to voters or a turn off to voters.
Joseph:What I do know is that there are not very many visual effects, special effects artists who have been nominated for both visual effects and for makeup. Yeah, and so neil scanlon trying to sort of be nominated in the makeup category. That could be interesting, something that excites them, or it could also be something that they would rather just nominate strictly hair and makeup people and prosthetics people, right, um. So it'll be interesting to see if that nomination does come into fruition, if maybe that sort of special makeup effects element that it has is what helped it get to the finish line and then, surprisingly, one of the most experienced and awarded makeup teams is actually the team of maria right, yeah which has multiple individuals with nominations I think possibly three or four of them, and some with a couple of nominations, and there again is a film that most people have dismissed up to this point Right.
Jules:Right. And something that I find really interesting about Maria is that our experience watching that film the first time several months ago at a festival was that the audience around us had a little bit of a hard time feeling like Angelina Jolie looked like Maria Callas, right, and even though I thought the makeup work was well done in that film, I think the film ends with in the credits you have footage from Maria Callas and when you see her and you've just seen the film it doesn't help. It doesn't help in that, you know, even though the makeup work is well done, angelina Jolie doesn't look very much like Maria Callas, unlike, you know, kristen Stewart, who had a very eerie resemblance to Princess Diana in her film.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:So I think that's something that goes against the movie, despite having these decorated artisans and several nominations between them. I think that's one reason why that film hasn't caught fire in that category.
Joseph:Is it transformative enough? I think is the question that we're posing here. Is the work on Angelina Jolie as Maria Callas transformative enough or is it just complementing Angelina Jolie's sort of presence?
Jules:It is good work and I do think it's solid work.
Joseph:Yes, it's up to the academy to decide if it was transformative enough it does have a couple of things going for it, but let's talk about, for example, as you start to narrow this list down. Let's talk about who got into the guild right, and I think that's a very good place to start, because the guild has sort of shown who the nominees are going to be, except for maybe a handful of titles, and those handful of titles recently. They have something in common and that's, I believe, a couple of films that got blanked. There, as you say, is all quiet on the western front and society of the snow right, um, one of them, I think, would end up winning the oscar right. But both those films that got left out are international productions, foreign productions, productions from another country. That's probably an element as to why they did not get in.
Joseph:But the other nominees, in each year respectively, were highlighted at the Guild. So the other thing I would say is, if you go back a little further, you're going to see maybe a couple of American titles miss the Guild. So the other thing I would say is, if you go back a little further, you're going to see maybe a couple of American titles miss the Guild Award and still manage to get an Oscar nomination, but they're, for the most part going to be able to get a BAFTA bounce back, which means they'll be nominated at BAFTA for the makeup category and be able to sort of use that to catapult them into the final five for the academy. But if we look at the guild's nominees this year, I think there are certain categories in the guild that are more important. So there's contemporary work for makeup and contemporary work for hair. Then there's period and character work for makeup and period and character work for hair and then there's the more special effects prosthetic section.
Joseph:The absolute best place to be at, from my experience and what I've observed, is in the special effects prosthetic section. That's really where a lot of the chewiness is found for voters. And so this year, among the nominees that are eligible for the Oscar, you'll find the Substance Beetlejuice, beetlejuice and A Different man. So those are really, you know, scene-stealing sort of prosthetics works and prosthetic designs that are going into the film and sort of what the bake-off would really sort of show off.
Jules:Yeah, highlight.
Joseph:So it's great to have all three of those films there. I think that's a huge advantage for all of them. I do think that of genre dominance here you know a lot of horror, horror comedy and even some sort of independent horror element, with a different man maybe. So I do wonder if that's going to play a factor into the voting branch saying you know, I want a different style of film.
Joseph:And then in some of the other categories you'll see, for example, emilia Perez and the Substance again listed for contemporary makeup. They're contemporary films, not the best category to be in, but it's again really important to be mentioned here. And then you'll see Beetlejuice, beetlejuice and Wicked nominated for the first time in the period and character makeup section. So Wicked did not make the prosthetic section and Amelia Perez did not make the prosthetic section, but at least they're being nominated. A different man made the prosthetic section, the effects section and nothing else. But so we basically have here is about five nominees. I believe that the guild really threw their weight behind, and so that would be the substance Emilia Perez, beetlejuice, beetlejuice, wicked and A Different man. And that is not a necessarily bad place to start formulating what your final five should more or less look like there was one title that was completely snubbed from the guild, which called a lot of people's attention because it's period work, it's genre work, it's the sort of genre work they've recognized in the past, and that's Nosferatu.
Jules:Yeah, I'm feeling like that could be an indicative snub.
Joseph:And then the other really big sort of snubbing that the Guild did was Dune Part 2, with no nominations there.
Jules:Yeah, that one was the most shocking.
Joseph:I think that was really surprising, because some people were excusing the Nosferatu snub as possibly they hadn't had an opportunity to see it. Nosferatu snub, as possibly they hadn't had an opportunity to see it, whereas it's very difficult to think of a valid reason or a very good reason as to why they would leave out Dune 2 other than, as you've mentioned before, in other episodes. I've seen it, I've rewarded it and that's enough.
Jules:But there's also an important point to note here, and it's that the submission of Dune and the makeup category this year for the Oscars is a bit different, because they only submitted the work of a few artists as opposed to the entirety of the film, that might have an effect on whether the film gets nominated or not.
Joseph:in this category, you're right, that may be a factor at the end. I will say I didn't mention it, but those two individuals submitted for Dune Part 2, they are three-time nominees and they've yet to win, and I don't know if that's an argument for them getting nominated or an argument, as you've said, against them being nominated right, in the sense that the team which I think would, I would imagine, is more expansive, has been sort of whittled down to just two individuals. Right, but what's good for both those movies is that they had what we like to call a BAFTA bounce back. Right, because the BAFTA shortlisted five films and their five films included what some people are calling locks, the Substance Wicked, and then they had Amelia Perez and they finally included Dune Part Two and Nosferatu, and so the films not to make it onto there were.
Jules:Beetlejuice.
Joseph:Beetlejuice, beetlejuice and A Different man. Now, if you analyze the BAFTA, you kind of realize that over the last couple of years the BAFTA nominees for makeup have been pretty good. They've been averaging around four of those films nominated for BAFTA makeup crossing over and being Academy Award nominees for makeup, which I think is a very good streak and a very high rate of crossover. So it's interesting to see BAFTA's five compared to the five more dominant titles at the Guild. And the other really interesting thing about BAFTA is that there is a long list and so, because there is a long list, you get to see the other films that were not nominated.
Joseph:Of the titles that were not nominated, the only two eligible films for the Oscars that made the Oscar long list are Beetlejuice. Beetlejuice, which was nominated a bunch of times at the Guild Award, and the Apprentice, which was not nominated at all at the Guild Award. But there's something interesting about the apprentice and the fact that something that this category is missing and we talk about all the time is that we're going to need some real people, some historical or biographical people in this category.
Joseph:And you know, a film like a complete unknown, which is a favorite for so many oscars, didn't qualify here right and so that's a trend that, if you examine over the years and we'll talk about it in a minute sort of it becomes apparent that the bafta five have a hole in them because they don't really have a lot of historical biographical material there, and the Guild 5 also have sort of a hole in them because they don't have any of that either, and the Academy Award category has been really pro, including at least one film that has that element to it. Now here's the good news the bafta long list as it's been published over these last few years, it actually has had every single makeup nominee at the academy except society of the snow, and society the snow, I think, ends up being nominated because not only is it doing kind of a unique sort of weather effect, on the skin and on the individuals and that sort of really stood out from the other contenders.
Joseph:But also it was highlighted at the european film awards, much like all quiet on the western front was the year before, and part of its team were previous nominees for their work on Pan's Labyrinth. All that to say that there isn't necessarily a film positioned in the same way this year to sort of reap that nomination. There was no one really highlighted at the European Film Awards for makeup that's going to be able to cross over or that is eligible. And the foreign film, the foreign language film that's most prominent here is Amelia Perez and that got guild nominations anyway. And no, none of these films are really dealing with, you know, that sort of element of, again, environmental changes on the skin or environmental effects on the skin, and so I'm not sure that. I'm pretty sure that we can say that all the makeup nominees are going to have come out of BAFTA Right, which is bad news for a bunch of films that did not get nominated for BAFTA or get shortlisted for BAFTA, including something like Maria or something like Brando, but that's a really positive sign for something like the Apprentice or Beetlejuice, if the stat is to stand that BAFTA has had all of the eventual Academy Award nominees for makeup from their long list, all except, again, just that one film, society of the Snow, and, as we said, it's really unlikely that a film is going to be able to repeat that trajectory.
Joseph:Then it sort of bodes well that the eventual makeup nominees will come out of the five BAFTA nominees and either the Apprentice or Beetlejuice, or both usurping a couple of those titles or one of those titles. So BAFTA should have again it's been averaging four nominees out of their five nominees for makeup and the individual or the film that's missing is usually again in their long list. So they should really have all five, and right now I think we're looking at seven titles. So I don't know if you agree and you would pick your five out of those seven titles, or if maybe there is something that is going to sneak in without bath to having spotlighted it, maybe something like a different man. I don't know. What are you thinking?
Jules:Right. I mean, I think the biggest thing that gives me pause in this category is that I would like to include some real people. I think that's a trend. That being said, the Makeup and Hairstylist Guild actually didn't include a lot of real people at all this year, and that might be the differentiation between this year and other years, when they do include in the Guild real life figures, and those real life figures replicate again at the Oscars. So that could always happen.
Jules:I'm thinking right now that I feel really good about the Substance and about Wicked, and I'm going to say that Beetlejuice. Beetlejuice has sort of the legacy behind it and the financial success and mentions in the Guild for it to get in, and Tim Burton does well in this category. I think A Different man is an opportunity to spotlight something different in this category. I think the makeup artists would be impressed by the work in that film and it's something you don't really see often in this category. I think that makes it stand out. And, honestly, the last spot is a tough one because I'm torn between Nosferatu, which I think is really good that it got the BAFTA nomination, and again the sort of as you were saying earlier in this episode, that monster figures tend to do well in this category, and Nasferatu is a figure very well known in that world and the Apprentice, which I think has fabulous work done. I think the hairstyling in that film is terrific, the makeup is very good, you see the characters in that film and you really see and feel the people that you've been seeing all these years in torment, and so the work there is just spot on and terrific, and so I would not be the least bit surprised to see that film slide in here, possibly instead of Nosferatu, or possibly, well, instead of Nosferatu, and you'd have the inclusion of both Sebastian Stan films A Different man and the Apprentice or Nosferatu does get in, and really it's one or the other Sebastian Stanfilm, either a different man or the apprentice.
Jules:Right now I think the safest thing is to include Nassaratu. I wish the apprentice had been nominated at the BAFTA. The BAFTA has been, as you were saying, on a streak of getting about four right, and if I include Beetlejuice, beetlejuice and the apprentice, on a streak of getting about four right, and if I include Beetlejuice, beetlejuice and the Apprentice, they'd be only getting three. So right now I'm tempted to go with consensus of the Substance Wicked, beetlejuice, a Different man and Asmaratu, but I'm really, really, really, really concerned about the Apprentice. I think that has a really legitimate shot of getting into this category.
Joseph:Well, here's some other patterns to sort of keep in mind as you start finalizing your list. I like your list, and one of the things that I like about it is that you have potentially two costume nominees there in Nosferatu and Wicked and there is some crossover significant crossover between makeup and costume design. You'll see movies that were shortlisted in costume at BAFTA, for example, like Emma, crossed over into a makeup nomination here, crossover between makeup and costume design. You'll see movies that were shortlisted in costume at BAFTA, for example, like Emma, cross over into a makeup nomination here. Or movies that were shortlisted in or longlisted in makeup at BAFTA, like Pinocchio in 2020, make it into costume in the Academy Awards alongside makeup, and so there's this relationship going on between costume and makeup, and so you should have at least one title, and you have that, but on average it's two, and that's good that you have wicked and nosferatu there.
Joseph:But the other thing to sort of be aware of is that this category also has a lot to do with performance, right there are a lot of performances that are aided by makeup, and makeup artists are aware of that and they highlight that, whether it's something like 2019's joker or 2019's judy, and so this category tends to sort of favor or average about three performances right nominated for an acting oscar that are also nominated for makeup. Right now on your list, you have basically two films that are favored for nominations there, which, which is Wicked and the Substance, but you're really missing another film for acting, unless possibly, the inclusion of a different man here could spell a very good day for a Sebastian Stan and actor for a different man.
Jules:Yeah, I think that's a really good point. You're right, that's a trend that's really important to keep in mind. There should be some actors who are getting nominated for acting. Their films show up on this list. You're absolutely right about that.
Joseph:Now you can also, as you said, swap out Sebastian Stan films and put in the Apprentice instead of A Different man, and maybe again that bodes well for Sebastian Stan reaping a nomination for the Apprentice and Lead Actor, and you'll keep that three acting overlap. It's good to keep in mind that the last time that there was no real person included in this category was in the year 2016, and that's when this category was limited to just three films.
Joseph:so when there was three films in 2016, there was no real person, and in years like 2017 and 2018, there were still real people, and since it's been expanded, it's always had real individuals, and your list right now doesn't have any, not without either the apprentice, maria or brando in there, and that's a very odd thing, and 2016 was also the last year that there was really no overlap between costume and makeup, and so we already talked about how your list does have those two films, but I think it's just important to say that when the list grows from three to five, there's almost always certainly costume overlap and acting overlap.
Jules:And it grows in 2019?.
Joseph:In 2019, it's expanded, but in 2016, when it was just three nominees, had they expanded it, one would imagine that a film like Florence Foster Jenkins would have landed one of those two spots. And Florence Foster Jenkins, lo and behold, was a nominee for actress for Meryl Streep and a nominee for costume design.
Joseph:And so it just makes sense that there should be costume people and acting people in this category and real people. Florence Foster Jenkins would have forced that category to include real people. So I think it's important to keep in mind that sort of connection between all those elements. And speaking to that, if you sort of examine the BAFTAs, I think it's sort of similar and it sort of expands that idea because, beyond the BAFTAs being great at predicting the Oscar 5 nominees for makeup from their 5 nominees for makeup at BAFTA, besides them being great at predicting the 5 Oscar nominees based on the 10 movies long listed for makeup at BAFTA, beyond that again, this crossover between costume and makeup, it tends to be that at least two films that were nominated for the BAFTA at costume end up being Academy Award nominees for makeup and the only two films eligible this year are actually Nosferatu and Wicked.
Joseph:So possibly those are two films that are going to be very difficult to snub, as opposed to the other titles that did not make a nomination at BAFTA for costume design. Right, and if you look at the guild, if you look at the guild, then you sort of take away those two films that they didn't get, which is all quiet on the western front and society, the snow. The guild does tend to have a lot of those eventual nominees and those real people included. So, as you said, maybe the thing this year is that there isn't going to and those real people included. So, as you said, maybe the thing this year is that there isn't going to be any real people because the guild did not include them.
Joseph:Right, I think that's a possibility, right? So I think it's a tricky category. It's going to be a tricky category to get right.
Jules:Right. Well, right now, what would you say are your predicted final five for this category?
Joseph:I think, keeping all those things in mind, I like BAFTA having four of the five nominees for the Oscars, so I would keep the Substance from BAFTA as an Oscar nominee. I would keep Nosferatu and Wicked they have that costume element from the BAFTA costume and then the Guild totally snubbed Dune 2, but I think the team is good enough, the work is good enough and the film is popular enough and I think everyone knows it famously lost this category in 2021. So I think they'll keep Dune 2. And that's four of my BAFTA people, four people from BAFTA, into my prediction for the Academy. And then that last spot I'm actually going to continue with the trend that BAFTA has all the nominees within their long list and I'm going to go with the Apprentice and that's going to give me, I think, an element of somebody real here, which is, you know, the contemporary characters of the Apprentice, and I think it's also going to lend me a crossover between an actor nominee and a makeup nominee, right, and so I would say the substance dune to nas, for raw to wicked and the apprentice.
Joseph:Right now, I think beetle juice is going to be extremely close, but I do wonder if the inclusion of someone like neil scanlon is going to be more of a turn off and turn on that's a good point.
Jules:That's a really good point. Um, all right, well, that's our dive into our predictions, our final predictions for best makeup and hairstyling. And to check our, our final, final, final predictions. They'll be on twitter at academy anon. Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for joining us.
Joseph:I'm jules and I'm joseph. You've been listening to Academy Anonymous.
Jules:And it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg licenses buy 3.0.
Joseph:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.