Academy Anonymous

Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions; Musicals Duel In Sound Design and Visual Effects; Multiple Ridley Scott & Ape Projects Go Head-To-Head; Films On Both Sound and Visual Effects Longlists Look For An Edge

• Jules & Joseph • Season 1 • Episode 20

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

  • How many photo-real animal work can the Visual Effects branch spotlight
  • Is there room for both Weta's dystopian apes and dancing ape on the Visual Effects five
  • Is the Ridley Scott name on the long list enough to carry “Gladiator 2” into a nomination
  • Can “Twisters” and “Alien: Romulus” capitalize on their distinct settings and effects to distinguish themselves from the rest of the lineup
  • Alex Garland looks to crash the Visual Effects category again after previously winning with “Ex-Machina” and reaping a nod from the Visual Effects Society with "Civil War"
  • “Wicked” favored for a nod by pundits but not the traditional kind of work visual effects artists fall for, especially with the musical “Better Man” outperforming it at the VES
  • Will Disney finally lose out on a Visual Effects nomination - their first since the category expanded in 2010? Or is Shawn Levy and his production company their “ace in the hole”?
  • Can “Wicked” and “Emilia Perez" coexist in Best Sound, the first time for multiple musicals in the category since 1968
  • Can one-time Best Picture favorite “Blitz” use BAFTA nod to capture at least a single nod at the Oscar
  • “A Complete Unknown” to continue Sound branch’s love for musical biopics and James Mangold projects
  • “Dune, Part 2” bolstered in Sound by its Visual Effects nomination
  • How a spot on the VFX longlist has bolstered the chances of “Gladiator 2,” “Deadpool & Wolverine,” and “Alien: Romulus” to steal a spot as a Best Sound nominee
  • Can “The Wild Robot” find favor in the Sound branch - where few animated titles and only Pixar have been before?

Jules:

hey, welcome back to academy anonymous, I'm jules and this is joseph.

Joseph:

Now let's tackle the next category, our final predictions for visual effects right, and this is one of the more popular categories, I would assume, amongst general movie going right individuals movies I actually saw movies. I actually saw movies that made a boatload of money so let's start talking about well. First of all, we have a short list, so that's really helpful it's very helpful actually, so we have a few titles to pick from I guess sometimes I wish that all the categories had a short list.

Joseph:

It would make predicting a little easier it would make it a little bit easier, but that takes away part of the fun, right? Yeah, so I think we're both in agreement that the favorite here to win, and certainly a lock to be nominated, is dune part two. Certainly, that's from warn Warner Brothers, and it has Double Negative working on it. So I think that's a shoe in here, right? Double Negative the production company, yeah, double Negative responsible, I think, for heading the visual effects there. So I think we got four spots left it's worth talking about. Who got into the BAFTA.

Jules:

Exactly.

Joseph:

And the BAFTA nominees were Doom Part II, of course, and then you had Better man from Paramount Pictures. Yes, you had Gladiator II from Paramount Pictures. You had Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes from 20th Century Studios and Wicked from Universal. I think it's good to note that BAFfta has had a bit of a streak recently, I think for the past two years. Four of their five visual effects nominees cross over into academy award nominees, right. So I think if you want to use that list as more or less as a base, it might be beneficial yeah up to my eye, the film that is probably the spottiest there is probably wicked I don't know if you agree.

Jules:

I 100 agree with that. After seeing the film I certainly feel that one of wicked's weaker spots is the visual effects category. I think there are visual effects elements in that film that are well done. And then I think there are visual effects elements in that film that are less well done and a bit shoddy, that have a place in Elphaba's story and her coming of age. I think the goat is done pretty well, but I think there was a couple other animals that I thought were done less well. I remember Elphaba having this number in a cornfield, I think, when she's fantasizing about finally meeting the wizard and she's running across what seems like a cornfield and I just thought that looked really shoddy. And so there are elements the monkeys in the end with the wings.

Joseph:

Oh yeah.

Jules:

There are certain angles where they look well done, other angles where they look less so.

Joseph:

And we've got monkeys galore here.

Jules:

Yeah, absolutely, and so.

Joseph:

They'll be comparing monkeys.

Jules:

Exactly.

Joseph:

Exactly, absolutely. That's a good point. Which is my favorite monkey and which is my least favorite monkey? Right, exactly.

Jules:

And so I think there are just enough elements in Wicked that make it a less competitive entry into this category. I know a lot of people expect it to be in because it's going to get an eye for best picture, but I actually think this is one category where it can easily get snubbed. I think we saw that important. You know we saw that happen in the visual effects society, where it was snubbed for the main category For a lot of categories really.

Jules:

Exactly, and that wasn't surprising to me. I know several people were surprised by that snub. Um, I wasn't again. There are elements in that film, visual effects wise, that are just not up to par with some of these other films that are in contention here, and so I think wicked is kind of weak in this category and I expect it to not get nominated here. What do you think?

Joseph:

I mean. Well, here's what I think. I think that visual effects, beyond being everything we've already stated, it's also a category where you'll find a lot of titles being nominated and possibly that being their only nomination the visual effects branch, I think. First of all, they vote by bake-off, so they're not necessarily watching the entire film, right, even though I'm sure most of them have. It's their industry and these are very popular films.

Jules:

And a quick point about that. I'm pretty sure that, because of the situation with the LA wildfires, I'm pretty sure there was no bake-off this year. I'm pretty sure. Don't quote me. I'm not a hundred percent sure, but I think I remember reading something like that well, that would be very interesting.

Joseph:

I believe that they usually gather to watch a bake-off and they tend to vote favoring movies that are more innovative, that stand out, and that's why you'll get a list of five where, eventually, two or three of those titles don't really show up anywhere else. I think that's something going against Wicked is that Wicked is going to show up in so many other categories that you really have to think is this a movie that has to be spotlighted for visual effects? Now, the visual effects team is absolutely fantastic. They've all been nominated before the individuals that would be credited with the nomination, and that is something that's definitely going for the film. But I think, as we've both seen, it's not necessarily the most innovative nor the most visual effect forward.

Joseph:

I think when you see wicked, you admire certainly the music, you admire the sound mix to make that music as immersive and as effective, you admire the costumes and you admire the production design by Nathan Crowley. I think visual effects unfortunately falls lower on that list and due to that, due to the fact that it's not so visual effect forward, nor is it very visual effect innovative, like something like the Irishman, I think it'll probably end up missing that nomination, even though that BAFTA nomination was pretty good for it, as you had said at the Visual Effects Society, it missed a lot of categories and certainly the biggest category and I think that's a little bit possibly telling where it did get nominated was a category like Created Environment.

Joseph:

And again I feel like, to a certain degree, that's going to be singled out with a production design nomination for nathan crowley right, I'll also say that the company I believe that's sort of headlining the visual effects for wicked is industrial light and magic and they're all over this list. They're immensely responsible for gladiator 2 and for twisters, both on this list. So I think it's sort of the the weak spot here, nothing very truly innovative with the goat or the bears or the animals, the extending of the production design of nathanley, even the flying, which was spectacular.

Jules:

It was very well done.

Joseph:

Unfortunately, it's not throughout the entire movie. It's just in segments, and I think that's something that the branch is probably going to. They're probably going to look elsewhere for a more visual effects forward movie, a movie that is what you take out of it. First is the visual effects.

Jules:

Right, and on that note, since we're talking about monkeys, let's go to two films that I think stand a very good chance of getting into this category, and that's King of the Planet of the Apes and Better man, and I think those films both got nominated at the Visual Effects Society for the main category. They both got BAFTA nominations and I think both of those films are going to be more attractive options for the visual effects branch. Even though it is strange to have two ape films nominated in this category. I think it speaks to the strength of the visual effects work in both of those films why I think it's likely that's going to happen this year.

Joseph:

Yeah, I mean, we talk about visual effect forward.

Joseph:

You have Wicked, which is a musical, on this shortlist, which there aren't very many that make this shortlist. But then there's also Better man, right, and we talk about going into a film and coming out thinking what's the first craft or below the line artistry that really sticks with you and you got to think that for better man it's possibly the visual effects. Again, more visual effects forward. They replaced an entire protagonist right with visual effects. Um, and now that you're bringing up kingdom of the planet of the apes, not only is it ape to ape, right and again wicked has a variation of the monkey and the ape going on for it. Not only is it ape to ape, right and again wicked has a variation of the monkey and the ape.

Joseph:

Going on for it right not only is it ape versus ape, with better man versus kingdom of the planet of the apes, but it's also weta versus weta right and what I mean by that is that what affects is kind of, you know, pushing both visual effects, artists, artistry behind both those films. Is there enough room not just for two apes that are doing very different things, one's dancing and one's in the dystopian sci-fi?

Joseph:

future but they're both from the same company. So is there going to be enough distinction between both projects? Do both projects cancel each other out? Right, do both projects are they? Can they distinguish themselves amongst the rest and amongst each other enough to both land nominations? As you said, not only were both of those titles nominated for BAFTAs, but they really clenched up at the visual effects society getting multiple nominations and certainly the big nomination for visual effects in a photo, real feature, right. So those have to be two favorites, but they're also two titles that you know have their little bit of nuance in terms of something going against them.

Jules:

Yeah, right and I think also sometimes I wonder if possibly the fact that better man did so poorly here in the states is a factor as to why either some voters didn't see the film or didn't consider it as a must to put on their ballot.

Jules:

I just wonder if that sort of outside noise like really poor box office here, because I think it did better outside of here but here that's going to affect possibly getting a nomination, which would be a shame because I think the film has done well critically for this filmmaker and I know that there were several people online that were, you know, thought it was very unfortunate that the film didn't do better, because there's a lot of work in this movie and again I just I wonder if that bad box office will have an effect, but I also think that that again the work is strong enough that it can overcome that I mean, we've seen films like solo and christopher robin, these movies that were not, you know, barn burners at the box office still get nominated because the work is compelling enough, or sometimes the project, the legacy project, is compelling enough, and that's something certainly going for.

Joseph:

Kingdom of the planet of the apes right then not only made a great amount of money, or a very significant amount of money, but we know that the planet of the apes franchise, since it's fallen in into the hands of 20th century and, you know, ever since the first iteration in 2011, has been nominated in this category, albeit in just this category it has never been able to break through anywhere else.

Joseph:

Right? And this new chapter, if there's anything that's maybe possibly a red flag, is that the director has changed, the writer has changed, the film wasn't as critically well received as the others, although it did well, and so you have to wonder is this something that voters are going to say, oh well, I've already seen, I've already rewarded with nominations an entire franchise. I don't want to go and start nominating them all over again for this reboot. Or are they going to feel like the fantastic work of all three of those movies which centered around Andy Serkis and what was really cutting edge technology for the time, it never won an Academy Award? Is that something that's going to compel voters to keep putting it on their shortlist?

Joseph:

I will say I've seen the work and I think the work is fantastic and I think the work is the best I've seen in terms of this entire franchise, with the photorealism and the effects and the simulations. It's absolutely gorgeous. It would be a shame if it's not there, but it could happen, because beyond, you know, you have multiple movies coming from the same studio and multiple legacy projects. So let's talk about the sister project of better man, which is another entry here from paramount pictures, and that's gladiator 2, which is a huge legacy project right for the oscars, absolutely, and I think that that's something that's going for it.

Jules:

It's a film that did very just fine critically, even though it was similar to the reception of the first one. But in general I think that film landed on a more disappointment, disappointing note critically than people expected and here in the states it didn't do as financially. It wasn't as financially successful as people had hoped, even though globally it did really well. Internationally it did really well and I feel that the, as you were saying, the legacy of it all following the first Gladiator, which was such a sort of awards magnet for the Oscars in 2000. I feel that that's a film that they saw and really Scott does well in this category and that, despite it not matching the quality for many people, it's still safe enough for a nomination here.

Joseph:

I think that it's going to stand out enough. I think it's taking place in Rome.

Joseph:

It has a distinction about it compared to the other films. I don't know if it's a shoo-in, but I like it here, as you said, with Ridley Scott behind this. Ridley Scott, I think the last time he was shortlisted in this category and did not make it at the end was for Alien Covenant, and so I think that's a very good sign. It got that bapton nomination, as we were saying, but unfortunately it did not do that great at the visual effects society. Um, the company behind gladiator 2 is industrial light and magic, which also has wicked and twisters. Funnily enough, twisters got the visual effects society nomination for visual effects in a photoreal feature, but there's a film that got shut out entirely from bafta and the bafta long list. Even so, there's a weak spot there in that movie as well.

Joseph:

Right now that we've covered the bafta nominees I mean speaking of the visual effects society nominees the people we have left to cover are twisters and mufasa right, twisters, obviously another legacy project. Never made it to best picture, of course, but everyone knows how that changed sound design and visual effects back in the 90s. Another huge box office success, and mufasa, of course, came out in christmas. Barry jenkins is directing it. The first one of was, of course, a nominee in 2019, but it also brings about this bigger discussion to be had, which is that last year, the visual effects winner was godzilla minus one right. And there's a movie that did not get nominated for BAFTA and was not shortlisted at BAFTA and it won the award Right, and it was only nominated for that one visual effects society award, which I believe was for animated character, and the Academy Awards also nominated Mission Impossible for the very first time in franchise history Right. And so I guess, with that, I would say that maybe this branch is undergoing some changes where some usual benchmarkers aren't as important as they used to be.

Jules:

Right right.

Joseph:

And so the fact that you know Twisters is shut out of BAFTA and Mufasa is shut out of BAFTA maybe is not as important, and vice versa. Maybe the fact that twisters is a final five nominee at the visual effects society, as is mufasa, maybe that's not as important either right, right, that's a really good point this is sort of a category that last year was really surprising to me and I think is sort of in flux right, right, I 100 agree.

Jules:

I think that's a really good point. Um, I also would say, in line with what we were talking about Ridley Scott. You have Alien Romulus, which was not directed by Scott, but certainly you can't help but think about Ridley Scott when you think about the Alien franchise, and he's a producer on that film. I think this film is a dark horse to make some waves in this category. However, I don't doesn't feel right to me to have both Gladiator 2 and Alien Romulus on this list. Again, I think they have a common thread. Um, and I don't know, I just I'm not sure that I see them both making it. What about you?

Joseph:

Well, I think it's interesting. That's yet another title for 20th Century Studios, another legacy project which has been sort of shoddy in terms of the nominations it reaps, and yet another entry for Weta, I believe. So again, it speaks to this idea that you know these titles might start competing against each other. I don't know if they did enough new things in this film, and I think I agree with you, it feels odd to be nominating a ridley scott film and a film that is based on work that really scott sort of originated so it feels a little bit odd, I will say that the last sort of alien adjacent film to be nominated for the visual effects Oscar was Ridley Scott's Prometheus Right.

Jules:

But also the last time Ridley Scott missed in this category significantly was Alien Covenant. Alien Covenant.

Joseph:

Yeah, that's sort of interesting to bring up too. And then the last title we have to talk about is really Deadpool and Wolverine, which is on this list and Mufasa oh, I'm sorry, I thought I brought up Mufasa already.

Joseph:

Mufasa, of course, doing well in Christmas from Disney. It's original the Lion King was nominated here. Barry Jenkins is taking over directing now, not Jon Favreau. Jon Favreau, of course, got multiple nominations here. Sometimes this category and all the character, all the craft categories as we'll speak about, sometimes they're judged by the filmmakers behind them and the filmmakers leading them. So john favreau has a leeway here that maybe someone like barry jenkins does not right. But it's doing very well over christmas and it's a different company that I'm pretty sure is pushing this film and that's npc, and so that's interesting. But again we have this idea of are there just too many animals in this category?

Jules:

That's what I was going to say, that's what I wanted to bring up the reason that I'm not liking Mufasa, for this is between this and Better, man and King of the Planet of the Apes and even, to a certain extent, gladiator 2 has some animals in there, yeah, you know, I just feel like it's too animal heavy, um, and also wicked has animals too, exactly, and so, and also you know barry jenkins as a director.

Jules:

You know his films, uh, for obvious reasons, don't typically, you know, kind of penetrate this category, right visual effects. So I wonder if that's sort of something that might be playing here, playing out here, you know, his version of the lion king doesn't get in right, whereas, as you were saying, john favreau's does um, it's also, you know, uh was a little bit of a critical misstep.

Jules:

I wonder if that has something to do with it because I do know that better man did much better critically, and so did king of the planet of the apes, although much worse box office oh, yes, yeah absolutely um. So that was my point that I wanted to bring up with mufasa and why I'm a little skeptical with it. And then the last film that we wanted to bring up was I mean, those are all.

Joseph:

those are all excellent points. That leads us to deadpool, one of the biggest films of the year, certainly in the us the only sort of superhero film on this list which has been pretty popular among this category. It's also backed by Disney. But here we go again. You got Weta FX again, and so again you wonder if this Weta FX Is just thinning out the competition.

Joseph:

And if there's enough room for Anything more than two titles. We did forget one movie On here that I actually think is the one that stands out, the most, which is Civil War.

Jules:

A24 was able to get Civil War here movie on here. That I actually think, is the one that stands out the most right, which is civil war.

Joseph:

Yes a24 was able to get civil war here. They have a very compelling video of some of the visual effects breakdown and they're able to get on this list, which is surprising or not surprising, I don't know.

Jules:

I mean, ex machina was nominated here and won I was gonna say alex carlin has a history right of getting into this category surprisingly right and going on to win this category surprisingly somewhat stealing the category from really scott's the martian and george miller's mad max and inari to the revenant and so it sort of upset everyone in that category and funnily enough, it was able to do that without a single nomination at the Visual Effects Society Right this time Civil War is nominated there.

Joseph:

It's nominated twice and it's nominated in one category that you always have to watch out that a film from here sort of evolves into an eventual nominee, because they're using visual effects in a very complimenting way, as instead of a very focused way or a way that you know is catered to visual effects and that's know is catered to visual effects and that's in the category of supporting visual effects in a photo real feature, and so civil war is nominated there and it's the only nominee there that is eligible for an oscar nomination. It was also long listed by bafta and, as we said, alex garland has gotten a movie here before and this movie is being sort of backed by this smaller, uh, visual effects house frame store, which has had some success here before and has upset competition, I think, when something like christopher robin was able to get in. So it's not impossible for them to sort of beat the odds. But if you look at this list, it's a very different film, right, it's a war film.

Joseph:

It's a contemporary film there's not a lot of spectacle in it right a lot of nuanced visual effects going on, a lot of what they refer to as invisible visual effects, which is something that the visual effects branch in general would rather not exactly, yeah nominate but, there may be enough innovation possibly in some of their practical effects, special effects that may be compelling enough and certainly that is distinct enough yeah, I completely agree with that, everything that you said, and I would add, about deadpool and wolverine, that sean levy as a filmmaker and his production company, they do well in this category, right, despite being having, you know, uh, fostered and created films that don't get embraced by the visual effects society organization.

Jules:

So, right, deadpool, wolverine, were blanked from this year's visual effects society, but that's not an uncommon thing for a sean levy, right? Uh, produced or directed film, right, and so speak a little bit more to that.

Joseph:

Well, yeah, 21 Laps, which is the production company of Sean Levy. You know they have a very special magic with the Academy Awards. You talk about a company that was able to produce something like Real Steel and get a nomination there. In visual effects, without any support from the Visual Effects Society no nominations there. We're able to get a nomination for love and monsters right during the pandemic, right, right, and that upset movies like welcome to chechnya and movies like soul and movies like mank and even comic book films like birds of prey, and so there's a special kind of magic there. And even something like free guy the year right after with Ryan Reynolds, directed by Sean Levy, 21 laps again no Visual Effects Society nominations. But they're able to crack the BAFTA long list and the BAFTA top five, I believe, and they're able to walk away with that Oscar nomination.

Jules:

And so you just feel like this branch is watching the Sean Levy, the Sean Levy.

Joseph:

They have yeah, they have, I think, a very special admiration or respect for the productions of 21 Laps. So I do think it's odd that they don't play as well for the visual effects society, but that has never been a determining factor for their ultimate fate. And so, yes, deadpool and Wolverine was blanked, but I think they are to be taken seriously in this category 100%.

Jules:

I completely agree so.

Joseph:

I mean, as we're making our final five, I do think that there are a few things to keep in mind, because I do think that they start to point a path to things you should be looking at Right.

Joseph:

And so the first thing to be looking at, as we had mentioned, was the BAPT denominations, right, the first thing to be looking at, as we had mentioned, was the BAFTA nominations, right. So you have Better man Dune 2, Gladiator 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Wicked, and right now BAFTA's on a streak, and the past few years they've gotten four of those movies in, when they haven't they usually get three in, but if you look at their long list, which have been very helpful since they've started publishing them, you might find up to all five nominees there and any nominee that isn't there. It's not impossible for them to get in, but it is possibly maybe just the one title, and so you know the nominees. The other eligible films that were long listed by BAFTA include Civil War, Alien, Romulus and Deadpool and Wolverine. The films that were not were Mufasa and Twisters.

Joseph:

Twisters exactly. So those two films missed the BAFTA long list and that's something definitely going against them, right? The second thing to keep in mind is the Visual Effects Society. So you know that Dune 2 had most nominations, I believe, but very close you have Better man and Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and the final two spots were those two movies that were, as you said, blanked by BAFTA long list, which is Mufasa and Twisters. The other films that were nominated at the BAFTA, such as Gladiator and Wicked, got one nomination apiece, I think. Actually, gladiator got two, civil War got two, which was long listed at BAFTA. Excuse me, deadpool did get that one nomination. But another thing to look at beside the Visual Effects Society, where you saw that some films did really well and you had films like Deadpool and Romulus, twisters, I believe, getting just one nomination. You know when voters are casting their ballots, I do think that they're taking a larger look at what other films are doing well in other categories, and so we always speak to the idea that, for some reason, there's just this overlap between the nominees for visual effects and the nominees for sound as well as the movies that are long listed for visual effects as and the movies that are long listed for sound yeah, 100

Joseph:

and so if you look at the Academy's long list for best sound and you examine it, you kind of start to see a pattern. Ever since they started publishing those lists, and whatever nominees make it into the final five for the Academy of Visual Effects, there should be at least one to two of those films that are nominated among the final five for best sound, and this year for sure, one of those spots belongs to Dune 2. But you sort of start thinking about what the second film could be if there is a second film, and most times there is a second film. Sometimes there can be more than two films, right, right. But so you start thinking about what that other film could be. That is, a sound nominee that crosses over into a visual effects nominee. I'll give you an example. Something like the creator was hugely popular at the visual effects society and somehow it was able to have enough you know steam in that category that it was able to sort of muster a nomination for sound where it had very little traction right.

Joseph:

That's another sort of weird thing that happened last year, and so, as you start thinking about the films that appeared on both lists, you're left with a list that includes Dune 2, wicked, gladiator 2, alien, romulus and Deadpool and Wolverine, and so, as you're making your final five, you should take into consideration that at least two of those films right should end up being both sound nominees and visual effects nominees.

Joseph:

It can be as little as one, but it tends to be two. Further and say that last year we saw that three nominees from the academy awards of long list and sound end up being visual effects nominees in the top five. And what I'm trying to say by that is you may have two movies that sort of bridge the gap between being visual effects nominees and sound nominees, but you should probably have a third movie nominated for visual effects that was also shortlisted in sound right right, and so from that list that I gave you, it would be smart to include three movies right right.

Joseph:

So that's something that you sort of notice over time and maybe you want to use to sort of create your final five right.

Jules:

I think that's a really good point and that's certainly a pattern that we've noticed, and it really played out last year with a surprise nominations for um, the creator, and mission impossible, right, exactly, and napoleon to a certain degree, I think, which was shoulder for sound, but did not get that nomination.

Joseph:

But it did get that visual effects nomination right, and then you'll also see some more overlap, for example in something like the Annie Awards. Again, the connection between the animation community and the visual effects community is very intricate very intertwined and so when they have a category of you know best character animation, I believe in a live action film. If you get that kind of nomination, it could also prove some very broad support.

Joseph:

And some movies that got that were movies that were not shortlisted for the Academy Sound right, and so that includes again Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Better man, along with Gladiator 2.

Joseph:

And then I think the last sort of guild that could possibly provide some overlap is the Art Directors Guild, and there's again, again, a lot of overlap between visual effects and art direction because, you're sort of extending the art direction, the production design, with the use of visual effects exactly and so you should usually get at least one nominee among the five visual effects that'll show up for production design, and you'd be surprised how many of the nominees for visual effects top five at the Oscars tend to be movies that got singled out by the Production Designers Guild, the Art Directors Guild.

Jules:

There was one year recently that I got four right.

Joseph:

I think so, I think so.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

And so the films this year that was sort of highlighted by the Art Directors Guild that are also shortlisted for the oscars, include gladiator 2, dune 2, alien romulus, civil war twisters is on there and, of course, wicked a couple of films that didn't make it were better man and kingdom of the planet of the ap right. So that may also be a factor. I would probably suggest maybe borrowing three to four out of those art directing nominees from the Guild and sort of using those or placing those among your visual effects top five.

Jules:

Yeah, I think those are excellent points. There's certainly a crossover between all those departments and branches, and just artistry and filmmaking as a whole is such a collaborative experience that you're going to have these branches speak to each other, these departments speak to each other and I will say one last thing, which is right now.

Joseph:

The consensus has sort of excluded a film like Deadpool and Wolverine.

Joseph:

You know, there's a film that has done really well at the Sound Guild, was shortlisted for sound at the Oscars, was longlisted for visual effects at the BAFTA, is made by 21 Laps, is not at the Art Directors Guild, nor did it do very well at the Visual Effects Society, is not at the Art Directors Guild, nor did it do very well at the Visual Effects Society, but it's really the only film that's repping the Walt Disney Motion Picture Alongside Mufasa, right alongside Mufasa.

Joseph:

So I will say that, from what I've seen, I think we haven't observed Disney miss a nomination here I'm referring specifically to the Walt Disney Motion Picture Company since 2009, I believe Right, even in one of the rare years where the visual effects branch, you know, decides to forego anything that originates from comic books or superheroes, like 2015, where they didn't nominate Age of Ultron or Ant-Man, disney is still sort of repped by Star Wars. You know Disney either, between their live-action remakes, their superhero films, their Marvel films, their Star Wars properties, between all that, disney has always mustered at least one nomination in this category, again since 2009, and again.

Joseph:

2009 was the last year this category was held to just three nominations right right, and so, ever since it's expanded to five, disney has found a way to be on this list.

Jules:

Right, right, so I think that's a really good point. I think that's something that you know you have to keep in mind for sure.

Joseph:

I think right now, both Mufasa and Deadpool and Wolverine are not popular picks, but I think that there is something to be said about the power of Disney in this category, right.

Jules:

I think you're 100% right and to that note, I would say that my predicted five for visual effects at this point would be dune, part two, kingdom of the kingdom of the planet of the apes, better man, glider two and, for the reasons you just stated, deadpool and wolverine. A disney movie, yes, and also the overlap between visual effects and being shortlisted for sound and, as you were saying, the Disney movie repping. Disney, as well as the Sean Levy, does really well in this category and beats the odds time and time again.

Joseph:

You also have three movies that were long listed at the Academy for Sound, because you're putting in Dune 2, gladiator 2 and Deadpool Right Right for sound because you're putting in right dune 2, gladiator 2 and deadpool right, right. And then I think you also have maybe two titles that were at the art directors guild right, because the other three weren't. So maybe there there's possibly a little bit of a weak spot right, but, like I said, there's so many different.

Joseph:

You know stats in this category. You know that's the fun thing about stats is one of them has to fall but, the rest are going to stay intact. It'll be interesting to see which way this goes. I think it's interesting that you're going again with the bafta, picking up four nominees which is they've been on a streak right so I think I like your four as well.

Joseph:

I think I would go with dune 2, gladiator 2, better man, kingdom of the planet of the apes, and I think for the fifth spot I'm really tempted right now to select possibly civil war, because it's just so different from the others. It picked up those two nominations, sometimes the winner of that supporting visual effects category. At the visual effects society can sort of differentiate itself enough to, you know, steal a nomination, see the last nomination.

Joseph:

Right, right, I think frame store has been able to do it before, but you know the disney stat is very compelling right and I think what better way that to say goodbye to the deadpool character, or possibly the ryan reynolds era of the deadpool character, than to finally nominate deadpool something. And we know Deadpool is popular enough because it's doing well in these sound guilds and I do like that. That gives you the three sound movies from the Oscar long list for best sound in visual effects.

Jules:

And I think, like we mentioned, Alex Garland is certainly someone to watch out for in these surprise visual effects nominations space, right, so I think that's who I would go with is.

Joseph:

I would finish with Civil War, but my spoiler is certainly a Disney movie, and I think Deadpool might be the one.

Jules:

Right, I think maybe my spoiler is possibly Alien Romulus or mufasa, one of those two right all right.

Joseph:

Well, that's our dive and our final predictions for visual effects and again, we'll be posting these online on our twitter page, so just follow us on twitter if you want to see what our final predictions are. All right, so let's start looking into sound design, and we have another long list here that could help us figure out the nominees, help us narrow down the field, right? So let's start taking a look at each of these titles and start talking about pros and cons, where they've shown up before and you know where they're at at the race right now. So let's talk about, first of all, the. The long list included dune 2, wicked, a complete unknown. Emilia perez, gladiator 2, blitz, alien, romulus, the wild robot, deadpool and wolverine and joker 2. I think we can all agree that joker 2 should not factor in here right, so we can almost get rid of that one right.

Joseph:

I think that in this category really there are three locks right pershivas locks, and that's dune part two that's wicked, and that's a complete unknown yeah, all three of them fit the character of a nominee here to a t. You have the massive blockbuster visual effects film in dune 2. You have the musical in Wicked and the musical blockbuster at that, also shortlisted for visual effects, which isn't too bad. And then you have the sort of musical biopic, sort of musical, not musical film in A Complete Unknown, and that's, I think, a very easy nod for it to pick up.

Jules:

Right, absolutely. And so really it's the last two spots that we're trying to figure out. I think a film that makes sense here is Gladiator 2. Right, it did get that BAFTA nomination for best sound design. What about the Guild?

Joseph:

Right. So I mean, well, since you're talking about Gladiator 2,'s, start by saying the bath nominees and maybe that helps give us a benchmarker here. The bath, the final five. The nominees included wicked and dune 2, which we think are locks, as well as blitz and gladiator 2. That final nominee was the substance, which was snubbed here unfortunately it's not eligible.

Joseph:

So, as you said, gladiator 2, possibly a movie that's going to get that final spot. If you look at the other guild awards beyond the bafta to sort of give you an idea of where everyone stands, there's a couple of really good ones.

Joseph:

There's many remember the sound category, sort of yeah, they united unified into one category, but there are multiple guilds for it, um, one of the most prominent ones, one of the most telling ones, is the cinema audio society right, which is for the sound mixers, and so this year they shortlisted a complete unknown, which we're calling a lock. They did wicked, which we're calling a lock, and they did Wicked, which we're calling a lock, and they did Dune II, which we're calling a lock Right Now. Their final two spots went to Gladiator 2, as you were saying, and it went to Deadpool and Wolverine right Right, which is maybe surprising in the sense that it did not get long listed at BAFTA and certainly not nominated at BAFTA. So Gladiator 2 is in the BAFTA nominees and it's in the Cinema Audio Society nominees. The other big sort of industry award for sound designers to look at is the Motion Picture Sound Editors accolades, and so they have multiple categories.

Joseph:

So it's interesting to see which films got multiple nominations and, if I'm'm correct, the films that sort of led nominations were due to no surprise when it was, uh, selected for sound editing for music, dialogue and effects and also deadpool and wolverine which was shortlisted for the same three, and so those led with three apiece, and then after that you had a couple of movies with two apiece, and they included Wicked, which again we're calling a lock here for music and for dialogue, which are really good, two really good nominations for that film, as well as A Complete Unknown, again sort of a sister piece here, the musical, non-musical biopic thing, nominated for sound editing, music and dialogue as well, and interestingly, enough. Alien Romulus for dialogue and effects also got a pair of nominations.

Joseph:

Of course some people were surprised to see Alien Romulus on the Academy's long list anyway, but it was very revealing to see it listed in motion picture sound editors. Another film that picked up a couple of nominations and I say that with an asterisk was emilia perez, which is in the long list for the academy, was on the long list for bafta, although it did not get a nomination, and it pulled out a nomination at the motion picture sound editors for music it is a musical and for international film, which is possibly a little less important although I do think that something like the zone of interest figured in there last year right right

Joseph:

but it was uh sort of shut out from the cinema audio society. Uh, being a musical, that may be a little bit surprising. And then I I'll give a last little shout out to a recent organization called the association of motion picture sound, which has only recently started rewarding films, and three of the films that they highlighted this year included eligible films, wicked dune two and a complete unknown, and I think that speaks to how those three titles are pretty cemented in there that's even with a complete unknown being snubbed from the bafta from the bafta.

Joseph:

And so that's what you have to understand is that a complete unknown was long listed by bafta. But wherever it was long listed it always ran at the best sixth. Six, yeah, and that means it was behind movies like gladiator 2, behind movies like blitz and behind movies like the substance for the bafta, for the bafta right. But I think that we've seen this category sort of in flux and I think I've referred to this a little bit in visual effects too, which is always kind of interesting to see.

Joseph:

But you saw mission impossible get in here for the first time last year for the franchise, alongside visual effects, and there wasn't a lot of lead up to that nomination, I believe, and certainly that wasn't the case, or that was the case for a film like the creator, which ended up being nominated for sound design as well last year, right after doing so well at the visual effects society but not doing really well at the cinema audio society or the motion picture sound editors, so it might have even been shut out from those awards. But it goes to speak to this connection that there is between the visual effects category and the sound category, and so you should definitely, as you're making your final list, you should definitely have one film from the visual effects category cross over into this sound category. It should be one, but it could be as many as two. I remember in the year 2022, the race was so calcified and so strong, really, that you had up to four movies from visual effects show up in sound.

Jules:

So it's not out of the question. Well, we definitely have Dune.

Joseph:

Yeah, we definitely have Dune so that's at least one, but it could be that this year you're seeing possibly one or two.

Jules:

I found it interesting that Blitz made the BAFTA long list. I think that's a film that for some reason I feel like is going to land somewhere in the Oscar nominations, even if it underperformed overall this awards race. So I think this isn't a bad category for it to pop up and show up. So that's where I'm at with that film. What do you think?

Joseph:

well, I I think it's one of the few categories that blitz was able to manage to wrestle a nomination in at the baftas. I think it's quite interesting because it sort of stands apart from the rest of the field. You know it isn, it isn't a war film. It's a World War II film, those tend to do well in this category.

Joseph:

The team isn't as highly recognized as some of the other teams, certainly not the ones that feel the movies that feel locked in this category, but I do feel that it brings something different it's inclusion here. I do also think that one thing that we should talk about as we're finalizing this list we talk about the connection and the overlap between your visual effects nominees and your sound nominees, and nowhere was that more evident last year than when you saw the creator get into this category where it possibly should not have, and certainly not over things like Kills of the Flower Moon or something like Ferrari, or something like ferrari or something like napoleon possibly.

Joseph:

But there's also a strong connection between the original score category and the sound category and we talk about how these artists you know they're not just looking at the films sort of shortlisted or that are, you would imagine call their attention more, call the attention of sound designers more. They're looking at other films too and again, the oral art in cinema involves score and that's why motion picture sound editors is a category for music work right and so there should be at least one film from your original score category inside your sound design category, and sometimes there's more.

Joseph:

But you have to look. You have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a year when no film on the original score category crossed over into sound yeah, or landed in sound. It landed in sound. It's very, very rare you look at something like 2007, for example, and there were a lot of disqualifications that year. But if you look at the score category you'll find some surprising names, and one of them was when Marco Beltrami got his first nomination for a film like 310 to Yuma, which is a western, and at that point I don't know how long it had been since we'd seen a western in the original score category. And again, there were a lot of DQs.

Joseph:

Remember that's the year that johnny greenwood got disqualified for there will be blood, yeah but I always think that nowhere is it more evident that there's a bridge from sound to score than when you see 310 to yuma a western, you know western movies which do well in the sound category.

Joseph:

it's able to sort of bridge the gap and jump into original score, and all that to say is and we'll talk about it later but we have an original score shortlist and there's very few titles that can cross sort of the can sort of end up in both sound and score, and one of those titles is Blitz because, Blitz is shortlisted for Hans Zimmer score and it's shortlisted for sound and it got that sound nomination at bafta yeah, and interestingly enough, hans zimmer is a part of the doom part two score, which is disqualified, which he got dq'd for, and so maybe it's going to be tempting to nominate him for blitz for the year he had in general right, um, but then there's another movie. There's another movie that we have to talk about, in terms of a score nominee, possibly a very favorite score nominee very likely that could factor in here.

Joseph:

As we said, we have three locks, we have two spots open. We've talked gladiator 2, we've talked to blitz, both bafta nominees. Here's a movie that was not nominated at bafta right but was long listed, and that's emilia perez right the musical and we feel very confident that's going to be shortlisted for score. Yes, that be the film that crosses over from score into sound exactly.

Jules:

I think that's a really excellent point. That's something that both of those contenders have going for, going for them, I think. Right now I'm tempted to say that because Amelia Perez is such a likely nominee in the score category that, and considering who else we're considering, you and I, for the final five in score, it seemsenders the sound work is. There's some meticulous sound work in Emilia Perez, but I think it's not as comparable to the sound work that's happening in some of these other nominees, like Gladiator 2 and Complete Unknown and Wicked and Dune, and so I feel that that film is on iffy ground. I'm not 100% sold that. To me it feels right for it to be a sound nominee. That being said, that statistic of a crossover between sound and score makes me feel that it's maybe stronger here in this category than people think.

Joseph:

Right, and I agree. I will say that, on the films that are long listed for the Academy, amelia Perez, the sound team, is one of the more or one of the least decorated, I would say, amongst its designers, its sound designers. There haven't been too many of those who've been nominated at the Academy, but again, again, we're talking about an international production that has, you know, people involved from all over and so maybe that's not surprising, but maybe, for example, that is sort of a barrier to entry to it being nominated at the cinema audio society, where it got outplaced by deadpool and wolverine.

Joseph:

Right, that could be a factor. And then the other thing to talk about is is there room for a second sort of classical musical? When we already have Wicked running so further ahead, and that's not even addressing the idea that we have, as I said, a sort of non-musical musical in that biopic of a complete unknown. Is there room for another musical?

Jules:

yeah, it's kind of like a musical in and of itself because there's so many performances in that film. There's so many musical performances in that film, um yeah, right exactly, completely known that it's, you know, almost like a musical, exactly contender, um, exactly. So having three of them in this category feels weird to me now I will say that for my money.

Joseph:

When I saw emily perez, I did feel like there was a lot of really good sound editing work, because you're talking about this sort of fusion between musical and sort of narco culture, gun culture going on. So that's sort of an interesting mix right.

Joseph:

I feel they could have played with it more throughout the film, but maybe that's something that's going to call the attention of the sound designers, I think, a record for musicals nominated for sound, and that included, you know, the best picture winner, oliver, but I believe you also had movies like Finian's Rainbow, movies like Star and Funny Girl. I believe all of those films were nominated for sound at the same time, so that was dominated by sound. But 1968 feels like such a long time ago. I think that the industry went through this sort of musical era again in the 80s when you had, you know, big screen adaptations of Victor, victoria or Best, little Whorehouse or Annie or A Chorus Line or Annie or a chorus line, and despite all those sort of prevalent musicals, a lot of which were nominated for Academy Awards, you really don't get those movies shortlisted together in sound anymore, and sometimes you don't get any of them shortlisted in sound.

Jules:

And so I do wonder if maybe the industry is a little bit hesitant of rewarding too many musicals, too many movies possibly doing the same thing yeah, but at the same time it could be, you know, paralleling the fact that this year we have those three films wicked, complete, unknown, amita, paris, two of them which are bona fide musicals one is one of which can be considered a musical to a certain degree, being very locked Best Picture nominees. So it could be a weird year in the sense that those three films have occupied such a space in the race that it would make sense to have more inclusion musical films in this category this year.

Joseph:

Yeah, it can be a symptom of the films that are that are very popular this year. But I also think, like I said, it's a little bit of a mountain for Amelia Perez to climb, especially with those other two films so far, so much further ahead. But we do need that score film on here. I really do believe that.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

And the other mountains that there are to climb. Is not just that. Blitz is an unpopular film in a lot of categories, even in the BAFTA it only got three nominations. But you look at something like Wicked, which was shortlisted for original score. We haven't had a sort of Broadway musical adaptation on the big screen nominated for original score, I believe, since something like Annie in the early 80s, and to that point it got nominated because there was a whole category dedicated to original motion picture score that was adapted from a previously existing work and it would seem like you would need to create a category just like that to get the wickeds nominated right, you know right.

Joseph:

Even if wicked did make that short list of films, I don't expect it to be able to climb that mountain and end up with a top five nomination for original score. If it did, I think it would be quite momentous. Um, so that would be as difficult, uh, to see amelia perez in sound as it is to see wicked in score yeah as it is to see blitz in either or certainly in both right and then the other films to choose from.

Joseph:

In terms of that score overlap. All you have left is gladiator 2, alien romulus and the wild robot, and probably the most tempting of those would be the wild robot. A lot of people are figuring that movie in for score, but there's also a lot of red flags there.

Joseph:

I mean, we're living in this moment where animated films have sort of been relegated to just animated film and have not, you know, crossed over into other categories as successfully as they did in the early 2000s, like with ratatouille or the incredibles, and so there's been some hesitancy to nominate animated films there. The last one that I believe did it in the sound category, I think, was Soul, right, and it was nominated for sound and for score, but it was a pandemic year, right, and DreamWorks in particular has never really crossed that bridge. Dreamworks has, I think, only ever gotten two nominations for their films how to Train your Dragon, possibly and so the idea that they're going to be able to get Animated Feature, which is a shoo-in and Sound and Bridge the Gap into Score might be a bridge too far for them.

Jules:

Right, I agree 100%.

Joseph:

Beyond that, I think that the publishing of the BAFTA long lists have been incredibly helpful in sort of determining a bunch of nominees in different categories, but certainly sound, I think. In general, bafta, unlike Oscar, has always had or for the most part, as far as I know, has only had the one sound category. So they always have to pick five nominees, whereas the Academy, you know, for a while, for a long while, they had those two categories, sound mixing and sound editing. But since they've joined together the Academy, since the Academy has unified those two categories, the BAFTA five nominees have been very revealing as to who the Academy will end up electing and for the most part, you should see an overlap of four At least four, at least four.

Joseph:

At least four, and I'm not sure that they've ever been perfect. I'm not sure they've ever gotten a perfect five overlap with five and five at the Academy Although excuse me, I'm wrong In 2017, I think they might have had a perfect overlap with Shape of Water, dunkirk, baby Driver, blade Runner, 24. I think that was a year that they were perfect five for five, but most times they get four. And as you reference, you know, those five nominees at BAFTA, with the 10 nominees or the 10 slots that were available at the Academy Awards, at least four of those films tend to appear at the Academy Sound category. So, for example, in 2019, someone that was nominated for the BAFTA sound category was something like Rocketman, and that was one of the few titles that was not nominated for any of the 10 slots that were available at the Academy.

Joseph:

But the other four films nominated at BAFTA did show up either in the mix category or the editing category, and since they've been unified, I think you could count on them getting around four nominees and with the long list. If you examine their long, long list, I think that there is a very good chance that you can get all five of their nominees right, and so, if that's the case, we already know that there's a bunch of titles on their long list that are ineligible, and that includes, uh, the substance and conclave, and so if you're looking at their eligible contenders from their long list, you're left with Dune 2, gladiator 2, blitz Wicked, a Complete Unknown, emilia Perez, and they left out something like the Wild Robot, which could potentially bridge the gap between sound and score. So if you look at that, I would probably suggest, as you're finalizing your five, to look at that BAFTA long list. I think that might pave the clearest road to what the final five would be.

Jules:

Right. I think that's absolutely 100% right. On that note, and considering all the things that you've mentioned today, I would say that my predicted final five for the Oscar nominations are Dune, part 2, wicked, a Complete Unknown, the Lox. I'm going to go with Gladiator 2. I like that. It got that BAFTA nom and it did well at those sound organizations, and then I'm going to go with the score nominee being Emilia Paris, and the film that I'm most unsure of possibly landing a spot here is maybe Blitz instead of Emilia Perez if it gets that score nomination. But since right now I'm betting that it won't get that score nomination, I'm leaving it off that list and going with Emilia Perez. That's my spoiler, though. Blitz.

Joseph:

Yeah, that list makes a lot of sense to me. Sometimes I wonder about Gladiator 2 if the sound work was good enough to be nominated here. But at the same time you and I talk about this theory of sort of complementary, symmetrical nominations. And so last year when you saw Napoleon get nominated for possibly a surprising number of nominations, including visual effects and costume design and production design, one place where a lot of people had it pegged for nomination was the sound design category, because I think it did do pretty well at those sound guilds right and it did.

Joseph:

It missed that nomination, so maybe this is a sort of way to sort of make up for that. Um, so I think that my final five would be something like doom, part 2, wicked, a Complete Unknown, gladiator 2. And that fifth spot, I need someone that's going to sort of bridge score and sound. I know Emilio Perez is the popular choice, but I think I'm going to end up going with Blitz.

Joseph:

I think it's a little bit different, a little less musical, and I think it might be easier to see that movie sort of retain its BAFTA nomination which again it got over a complete unknown and Amelia Perez, and be able to pick up a nomination for someone as respected as Hans Zimmer. Then it will be for Amelia Perez to get its sort of more unknown sound team, that nomination for best sound, Right.

Jules:

So I think that's a really good point.

Joseph:

Blitz would be my fifth, but Emilia Perez is certainly my spoiler.

Jules:

Right, that's why it's my spoiler. I'm between that and Emilia Perez, so I have Blitz for that.

Joseph:

Fifth spot and Emilia Perez very close. That's my spoiler Again. Fifth spot and Amelia Perez very close. That's my spoiler Again. It could change at the very end. We'll post final predictions on our Twitter page, but that's the way I'm seeing it.

Jules:

All right. Well, that's our dive into our final predictions for Best Sound. Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for joining us. I'm Jules.

Joseph:

And I'm Joseph. You've been listening to Academy Anonymous.

Jules:

And it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. 3.0 http//creativecommonsorg. Licenses buy 3.0.

Joseph:

Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.