Academy Anonymous

Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions; Latvia's Flow Out-Muscling Dreamworks' Wild Robot; Documentary Feature Unafraid to Address The Thorny Global Issues of Today

• Jules & Joseph • Season 1 • Episode 22

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

  • "Flow" outpacing worthy challengers in a striking Animated Feature category spotlighting diverse techniques, unique voices and international reach.
  • Will the financial success of "The Wild Robot" help Dreamworks cross the finish line for the win - something that's evaded them since Aardman's Wallace & Gromit in 2005
  • Will we see the vote-split between international titles, "Flow" and "Memoir of a Snail"
  • Will the two clay stop-motion features, "Wallace & Gromit" and "Memoir of a Snail" cancel each other out
  • Can a robust nomination haul at the ANNIE awards mean that we're in for a surprise GKids nod for "Chicken for Linda"
  • Can Disney's "Moana 2" use its boxoffice success to go further than "Frozen 2"
  • Will Disney or Pixar be snubbed for their sequel work - as they've been in the past
  • Will the lack of U.S. distribution be a factor against "No Other Land"
  • National Geographic's "Sugarcane" and Netflix's "Daughters" eyeing nods and wins
  • Will both or either colonialism related title, "Dahomey" and "Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat," secure a nod
  • "Black Box" filmmaker may court favor with her first-hand account and powerful testimony
  • Audience favorites "Will & Harper," "Porcelain War," and "The Remarkable Life of Ibelin" well positioned to surprise
Jules:

hey, welcome back to academy anonymous. I'm jules and I'm joseph, and we're going to recap our final predictions for this year's oscar race 2024 2025. The announcements coming up soon, eagerly anticipated by many, many oscar addicts us included, obviously yep, and we have a lot to get into, so let's start getting into it. We're going to start with animated feature great.

Joseph:

That's one of my absolute favorite categories and I'll lead us through the category. And so 31 films made the long list here, all excellent films. I've seen a good number of them yes uh, some films did not make the final 31. I'm gonna give a special shout out to orion in the dark from netflix written by charlie kaufman beautiful film did not make this cut off for some reason.

Joseph:

Maybe they didn't meet theatrical distribution requirements. Either way, we still have a strong list of 31 films, but the race has calcified into more or less five or six films yeah and so and also I will say that I thought it was a really strong year for animated films, right, um.

Jules:

So that was something that was really nice to see and in this particular category, I think there were some few surprises last year. I think we both got Robot Dreams correct and that was something that was slipping by the radar by many people and that was cool. So I think this is a. It was a rich year and in a way, it's kind of strange that it's calcified into you know, five or six contenders, but that's where we're at.

Joseph:

Yeah, exactly. And so the first one we need to talk about is the film that seems to be way out front. That seems like a lot for a nomination. It's Flow, from Latvia, and it's a significant nomination for a number of reasons. Number one it's probably going to be the first nomination that Janus Distribution gets in this category, which is a major accomplishment for Janus, the same distribution company that got Drive my Car In a few years ago. Second, it's going to be a major win and a major headline for Latvia. This is going to be the first nomination for a Latvian film in any Academy Award category. It has already made history as the first title, I believe, shortlisted for foreign film from latvia.

Joseph:

Yeah, so flow is both a contender in international film and a contender in animated film. It's looking very solid for this nomination. I think it's a lock. It won the golden globe surprisingly, although you and I had discussed how maybe it was a strong contender to take that away from something like the wild robot right, a 3d animated film. I think it's a lock here. Uh, a huge accomplishment for lavia, for janice films.

Joseph:

After that, I think the next film to talk about is the american film, the wild robot right. A lot of people are thinking that's possibly the favorite to win here. Um, the one who's going to give flow a run for its money. Uh, dreamworks animation getting in again. Their most recent nomination, I believe, was for the sequel to puss in boots, right in this same category. Uh, the filmmakers have been nominated before, so I think this is an easy nomination for the wild robot. It should be another lock here. It may very well get multiple nominations on oscar morning, but this is going to be the easiest one it's going to get yeah, and I think it's still in question how many nominations it's going to get.

Jules:

You and me are a bit skeptical as to what other categories it can land in. Um, but yeah, certainly I think people think the wild robot is the favorite, but, as you were saying, I think all the momentum is for flow and that being the favorite to win this category. But either way, both are locked I completely agree.

Joseph:

So that is the second film, another computer 3d animated film. The third film, I think, also falls or parallels the wild robot in some way yeah is inside out. 2, which was a major film from pixar disney. It was a huge blockbuster success over the summer globally. It's a sequel to a film that won this race previously, so that looks like another lock for a nomination absolutely agree.

Jules:

100.

Joseph:

Those three are locked and loaded the next film that is a lock in this category should technically be the entry from netflix.

Joseph:

Netflix has been doing really well in this category yeah they should at least expect one movie to get a nomination, and it looks like the strongest contender they have is the title from the uk, the title from aardman animation, and that's the new installment of wallace and gromit. Uh, this one, entitled vengeance most foul. As we both know, the previous wallace and Gromit film won this category back in 2005. And Wallace and Gromit have a history of being nominated at the Academy Awards for short films, so this should be another easy nomination for them, especially since Aardman has gotten in multiple times with titles such as Shaun the Sheep and its sequel.

Joseph:

Last year's Chicken Run sort of stumbled out of the gate, but that's not the case. Critics have loved this film. It's played great overseas, so I think that that is very much a lock as well. Usually, what happens in animated feature is you're going to see a bunch of different films with different animation styles and also different countries you want to see not just American films dominate the entire category, and so so far we have a very balanced list. We have two American titles, one or both, really huge financial successes.

Joseph:

Then we have a film from Latvia, right, and we have a film from the UK, one of them being a legacy title in Wallace and Gromit. You have 3d animated films and you also have now a stop motion film, a film, uh, made with claymation. So we have a pretty well-rounded list right and so far.

Joseph:

I'll also say that a great guide to whether those films should get in or not is the fact that all of them are bafta nominees, all of them are producers guild nominees right in the animated feature category, and all of them are producers guild nominees right in the animated feature category, and all of them are also golden globe nominees, and that bodes very well for them. All of them were also nominated at the Annie Awards which are sort of the industry awards for animation professionals, right.

Joseph:

All of them did really well, and so those four look pretty locked in, right?

Jules:

so the question really is the fifth spot the fifth spot and that's kind of the hardest spot for me personally because it's probably my favorite film on these, uh, predicted five. The top five would be memoir of a snail. I love that movie, I know you loved it too, yeah, and I think it's the one that possibly could be in most, is most vulnerable to possibly being snubbed here, possibly, but I still think it looks pretty good to get into this category in that fifth spot. And I don't know, what do you think?

Joseph:

well. It got left out of bafta, right, which was surprising to me. I was worried about that. They only had four spots. The oscars will have five spots. Yeah, it did get a golden globe nomination, which is great, even though it got shut out at BAFTA, which I was surprised by because it had won the Audience Award at the, I believe, london Film Festival. I think so it had done well there. I was surprised that it got left off. But even if that's the case, the film is coming from Adam Elliott, who is a previous Academy Award winner in the short film category the short film animated category.

Joseph:

So he's no stranger to the animation community in general and certainly the animation community within the Academy Awards. He's Australian based and I think we can see that. We've talked about how the Australian Academy and the regular Academy have a lot of crossover appeal. We've talked about the Australian Academy Awards, the members that vote for those awards. A significant portion are Academy Award members. Think of someone, for example, like Cate Blanchett, who I believe is a member of both. So I think the fact that it's from Australia bodes really well for it.

Joseph:

It did get that Golden Globe nomination and it was nominated at the Annie's for Best Feature, even though it's on the independent side. Nonetheless, a lot of's the on the independent side. Nonetheless, a lot of films from there, or at least a couple of titles from there, should make it onto the oscar final five. I think the thing that's really going against memorable the snail right now is that there is another really popular american film that's sort of biting at the heels of it, right, and so the cons for memorable snail are that in the us it was distributed by ifc and it would be the first time that ifc gets into this category, which would be great, but it hasn't happened yet. Ifc hasn't managed to crack this category yet and it hasn't managed to crack very many categories, so that's.

Jules:

It also hasn't released that many animated films.

Joseph:

That's true, that's true but in any film in general.

Joseph:

In any film in general, in any category in general they have difficulty getting in, but it would be great to see them get in for this. That's certainly a hurdle that the campaign has to overcome. At the same time, usually what you see on a list like this is you see, as I said, a diverse lineup. You usually see two international titles and Latvia is already there for Flow and the UK will be there for Vengeance Most Foul. Is there enough room for a third international title? That's what we're going to find out Right.

Joseph:

So to a certain extent you and I talked about how we both love the film, but to critics groups like the New York Film Critics Circle or the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, flow has been the preferred title and has sort of stolen the momentum of the critics. Darling and Memoir of a Snail is the kind of film that really needed that push from critics to sort of take the one or two spot. So you wonder if there's going to be enough support for a film like Memoir of a Snail when there's already a lot of support going to Flow and possibly to Vengeance Most Foul, which has a lot of support within the industry because Aardman is such a notable name in the animation industry.

Joseph:

The other thing going against Memoir of a Snail is that it's a sort of claymation stop motion film which sort of parallels Vengeance Most Foul, and so you already have that form of animation represented among the five.

Jules:

Right right.

Joseph:

So is there enough room for two of those films, right? So those are all things that are sort of hurting Memoir of a Snail. At the Annie Awards, where it was nominated for Best Feature, it only scored another nomination in writing, which was surprising to me. I would have thought Adam Elliott would have been shortlisted for directing the film as well.

Jules:

Right.

Joseph:

But at least it got feature and writing. That also brings me to one other point that I would bring up, if I can just speak about it to a moment, which is the fact that the National Society of Film Critics does not have a category recognizing animated feature. That could have been a moment for something like Memoir of a Snail to stand out. I think it's disappointing to see that LA and New York Film Critics Circle have that category and the National Society of Film Critics doesn't. Hopefully we can talk about it more next year. But if you put on your hat of Academy activist, I would just like to say that that's something that should change overall on the road to the Oscars. If an organization like the National Society of Film Critics doesn't take animation seriously enough to give it its own category, I think it's very difficult to complain about the Academy not taking it seriously enough.

Joseph:

And that brings me to the point that remember that this category is voted on by the voting membership in general. By the voting membership in general, anyone can opt into this category and there are not necessarily any requirements, prerequisites, to vote for them. So as far as I know, they're not juried in any sort of way. You agree to watch the films. I don't know if there's a certain agreement that you're going to watch a certain percentage of the films, but it's very difficult for me to imagine that a member is going to watch 31 of these titles, that they aren't just going to watch the titles that they take their kids to or they take their families to or that they know someone is working in, and so, unfortunately, some of the more independent, international, experimental, challenging work is going to be overlooked for family fare and films with more financial success and more financial stakes in the American industry.

Jules:

A hundred percent. I think that you've seen that transition. From when they started allowing more members to vote in that category that weren't just the members of the animation branch, you saw that there was a shift away from nominating these really interesting independent or really just interesting animated works and it's become much more streamlined, much more mainstream, much more in the vein of what movies that these voting members take their kids to, and so that has been something that's been unfortunate to see, and I certainly think that on this list, the film that is most susceptible to being you know, know, quote, unquote prey to that sort of shift is a movie like Memoir of a Snail right.

Joseph:

So if the Australian members of the Academy don't show up for it, I will say that because everyone can vote for this category and we don't hand out votes to regular everyday animation workers that there is a chance that a film like Moana 2, which has just picked up so much money over the winter and over the fall, yeah is able to eclipse memoir of a snail. Moana 2 has a producer's guild nomination, which is pretty good, and it got one of the final two spots at the golden globes alongside memoir of a snail. It's picked up so much money.

Jules:

Who snubbed at the Globes? No one was snubbed at the Globes, so they had six nominees. They had six nominees.

Joseph:

They moved to six nominees, and that's how we know that the race has sort of calcified around these six.

Joseph:

BAFTA only has four nominees, and both of those titles got left out.

Joseph:

I will say that Moana has just picked up so much money that one would wonder whether, if the mainstream Academy members are voting for this, they're going to put it higher on the list than Memoir of a Snail If they even got around to Memoir of a Snail, because the Critical Darling spotlight has not been on it all season long.

Joseph:

Right, I will say one thing going against Moana 2 is that it did really well at Annie's, at the Annie Awards, but it did not manage to get a nomination for best animated feature right. So the feelings about how well done it was among the animation professionals might not be, what might not be, the same as what the Academy feels. It was not sure listed among the five, and instead, I think something like Ultraman Rising got nominated instead, and so it would be the first animated film to score a nomination for best animated feature without the annie nomination for best animated feature since, I believe, ferdinand yeah, that seems significant I think it's significant and it should bode well for memoir of a snail, but I don't think that it's a done deal.

Joseph:

It's a done deal at all yeah. The other thing I'll say for moana 2 is that it's a done deal. It's a done deal at all. Yeah. The other thing I'll say for Moana, too, is that it did really well at the visual effects society and there is a lot of crossover between animators or individuals who work in the animation field and individuals who work in the visual effects field, and so to see it get multiple visual effects society awards, I think is also very promising, right. So right now, let's say that those four movies are locked and that fifth spot is potentially a toss-up between memory of a snail and moana 2 I will say that the achilles heel of inside out 2 is that pixar hasn't gotten very many sequels in.

Joseph:

The only ones that have gotten in for animated feature are the toy story films and the incredibles 2. This does not have pete doctor on the I believe writing team or on the directing team. That's something to look out for. And certainly when it comes to moana, who's fighting for the fifth spot, the category has not been very kind to disney sequels either. If you think of something like frozen 2, which was a massive success, it did not get into this category. The last Disney sequel to get in, I believe, was Wreck-It Ralph 2. So that's the sort of soft spot in their campaign.

Joseph:

And I will mention one last title, even though the race has calcified in between those six. If there were a film to sneak in here that is not among those six, I would expect it to be possibly the french film chicken for linda, which got nominated at the annie awards runnered up at the los angeles film critics association, and it actually had more annie award nominations than memoir of a snail. It got nominated for four to memoiroir of a Snail's two. It has not been shortlisted or spotlighted as much as Flow or Memoir of a Snail all season, but the work is strong enough. It has already won the Cesar. It got nominated for a European Film Award, so if there were a title to sort of sneak in here and have enough support from possibly the international members voting, I would expect it to be chicken for Linda.

Jules:

Yeah.

Joseph:

And so that's something to look out for.

Jules:

Yeah, I thought that was a beautiful film. It would be amazing to see it on this list. I don't I'm not sure I think it's really far behind, but I certainly think that was a beautiful film that is more than worthy to be included in this lineup.

Joseph:

Agreed, and this is something that we're going to be talking about as we go through all these races. But with everything that's been occurring in the US, and in Los Angeles in particular, there is a chance that we're going to see less participation from Academy voters that are Los Angeles-based or California-based.

Jules:

Which seems like would be a significant number.

Joseph:

Yeah, one would think so, but with everything going on and voting sort of overlapping this period of immense uncertainty, turmoil, trauma, devastation, there is really a chance that that has impacted voting outcomes and certainly the number of individuals who had the opportunity to vote.

Joseph:

So you and I have been thinking that maybe there's a chance that when we see the results we'll discuss it, but that we're going to see a greater impact from international voters voters located in France, germany, spain, canada and possibly New York voters who weren't dealing with this over the past few weeks 100%, so that's something to look out for, and if something like Chicken for Linda is able to take a spot away from Moana 2, or if you see Moana 2 snubbed alongside Inside Out 2 because it didn't want to nominate a Pixar sequel, and you see both Memoir of a Snail and Chicken for Linda. That's certainly something that I think came into play 100%.

Jules:

I think. We're going to talk about it further as we go along the categories, but there's certainly a very big possibility that the nominees this year are more influenced by international voters than American voters, especially LA-based voters, which again probably includes a big part of the community, just because of recent events. So it'll be very interesting to see what happens. I think that pretty quickly as you start seeing the nominees, you get an inclination if the foreign vote is having a bigger impact than in other previous years and it was already having a bigger impact than previous years, A more outsized impact.

Jules:

Yeah absolutely so. I think between all those contenders we're both in agreement with the four Right now. I'm saying as my final prediction that Memoir of a Snail will get in that fifth spot. That's greatly aided by the statistic that you pointed out of Moana 2 not being nominated for Best Feature at the Annie Awards. But certainly I would not be surprised if there's a snub here and that Memoir of a Snail is the recipient. But I'm going to go with those five, those calcified five. How about you?

Joseph:

I completely agree with you. It should be Pixar's Inside Out 2, dreamworks' the Wild Robot Memoir of a Snail from Australia, flow from Latvia and Janice's first nomination in this category and finally Aardman's Wallace and Gromit Vengeance Most Foul.

Jules:

Yes, and again, we'll be posting these up online on our Twitter, so you can always see these on our Twitter page, and that's what we have for animated feature. Okay, let's move on to documentary feature. This, this category is a little bit more complicated. I do feel like it's really about eight-ish contenders that are the ones to look out for to land in this category yeah I think that there are that can.

Jules:

This is certainly a category that can have surprises. On oscar nomination morning. Let's see no other land is a pivotal film for this year that many people have has so much acclaim. It's so timely and I think that, based on how timely it is and based on how the documentary is tackling this Palestinian-Israeli conflict, I think is going to go in its favor to land that nomination. I like that it got the BAFTA nomination. I think that's really important. But, as you and I have previously talked about, I think its lack of a distributor is certainly something to is certainly something that could handicap this movie and cause it to be a very big, shocking snub.

Joseph:

It's a potential red flag.

Jules:

It's a potential red flag, as you were saying. It didn't make. It didn't get nominated for the DGA for the documentary feature category. Like I said, I like that. It got the BAFTA nomination, but what do you think?

Joseph:

Well, I like that it won the category of nonfiction film at both the Cinema Eye Honors and the International Documentary Association. I think those are two very notable organizations among documentarians and nonfiction filmmakers. So the fact that it won both of those and got that BAFTA nod, I think bodes really well for it. I agree, the distributor thing is a red flag. I still don't know if they've solved that issue, if they're working on that issue and the topic in and of itself might be controversial. I don't know if that's something the Academy is going to want to avoid.

Jules:

And I think that you know, possibly the DGA snub had a lot to do with the lack of distribution. That in and of itself is controversial that it lacks a distributor, as of yet, I don't know that there's ever been a film nominated in this category that didn't have a distributor attached to it. Interesting, I'm not sure, interesting, I'm not sure, um, but I think it's just so timely and so acclaimed and such an important film for this time that we're living in that I really can't see it being snubbed. If it is, it's going to be a shocker, and one that's going to cause a lot of anger, a lot of frustration, frustration with the academy.

Jules:

I'm not sure they want to do that um, and I'm tempted to say that it's. I don't want to say safe. Safe is a strong word, but I I would. I have it as it going, I have it as getting in. I think that's good yeah I like that.

Joseph:

I would. I was actually. I like the word safe.

Jules:

I don't like the word lock, but I like the word safe.

Joseph:

Okay, there's just possibly too much going for it for it to be considered unsafe at this point.

Jules:

I think you're right. I agree with that statement. I have sugar cane getting in. National Geographic does well in this category. I think it's also an important story. It's very critically acclaimed.

Joseph:

It's also a unique perspective on this list, Right exactly the Native American community.

Jules:

I think that's all going in its favor. It's a, it's a also a unique perspective on this list. Right, exactly the native american community. I think that's all going in its favor. It got snubbed from the bafta, which I think is interesting. Um, but, like I said, national geographic has a good track record here. Um, what do you think?

Joseph:

I agree, I think sugarcane is going to get in. It's one of the most critically acclaimed films, or documentaries, I should say, of the year. I think that the Baptist Nub raised a little bit of an eyebrow for me, but I think it should get in here comfortably and I really trust the Nat Geo being able to get a film in here, a film of this caliber 100%.

Jules:

Speaking of production companies, netflix does Wellness, category 2, two, and they have daughters, which is also very critically acclaimed films, since its premiere, I think I believe in sundance. It's certainly a film that is tackling the effects of incarceration and familial bonds, and I think that those are also timely topics. And, uh, it's a moving film. I think it has all the ingredients to be considered. You know, I would probably consider a lock in this category personally I actually agree with you.

Joseph:

I think this is the first title among the ones we're speaking of that I would consider an absolute lock here, I think the fact that it got nominated for bafta spells that this movie is a potential spoiler for the winner.

Joseph:

Right, I think you know we talk about how. Of the films that qualified I believe 15 titles that qualify for the Academy Awards only three were nominated at BAFTA, and BAFTA tends to have the winner among their nominees, even when BAFTA goes for a different film to win the award. I remember in 2019, they went for For Sama. That movie was also a nominee at the Academy Awards and among the five at BAFTA that year they did have American Factory from Netflix which ended up winning the Oscar.

Joseph:

So I think Daughters is a lock for a nomination and it looks to me like it might be the film to beat.

Jules:

Right. I think that another land would possibly be if it lands that nomination would would likely be the favorite to win that category, but certainly the number two would be daughters, and if there is no other land in the lineup, then I do think you're right, daughters would be the number one pick. Yeah, um. And then I think a film like soundtrack to akuta is very interesting because it's a incredibly acclaimed film this year and it um boasts, you know, really, uh, attention calling, editing, and it's a film that's about so many things colonialism, um, it tackles themes of the cold war, um, jazz. It's a very uh electrifying piece and I think it's a very ambitious piece as well, and so I feel that all those things are going for it.

Jules:

I think that the other film that's sort of competing for a similar space in this category is Dahomey, for Maddie Diop, which also is tackling colonialism. She has a very different style, obviously, I think, because of her distinct aesthetic and her distinct style. I think that's one of the things that's going against a movie like Dahomey landing in here in this top five, despite winning the Berlin Film Festival top prize and being, again, one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year. I just think that her choices are riskier, certainly very creative, certainly very sort of arturistic, which is not fully welcomed into this category, I think. And so I think that having those two films be such powerful films and be such acclaimed films this year, one of them should land in these five, and I give the edge to soundtrack, to a coup de top, mainly because I think, like I said, maddie D up style, directorial style, might be a little bit outside of their you know the kind of thing they tend to nominate in this category. What do you think?

Joseph:

I think that's great, that we're talking about them together. I think I agree with everything that you say. Soundtrack to akuta was nominated for a director's guild award, which is great. It's coming from kino lorber, which has had success at the academy, I believe, before. Dahomey is interesting because it got listed right twice.

Joseph:

It's shortlisted for a documentary and it's shortlisted as a foreign film, and I think that's a good sign that the Academy is going to be receptive to the film. It won that huge prize at Berlin. Both soundtrack to Agudetan and Dahomey were listed at the International Documentary Association and the Cinema Eye Honors, I believe. So those are good signs for both those films. I would be surprised if one of them did not land. Yeah, I agree 100%, but I also want to mention that the filmmaker, maddy Diop, which we're big fans of, not only did she win Berlin this year, but her debut film, a narrative film, atlantics, premiered at Cannes and was shortlisted for international film, I believe in 2019. So this is not the first time they're being exposed to Maddie Diop.

Joseph:

So I'm not sure that Maddie Diop fits the traditional role of being a documentarian, a nonfiction filmmaker. She's, I think, going to be a filmmaker that plays around with narrative film and nonfiction film, and I don't know if that's going to be a little bit of a turnoff for some of the voters in this category. The other thing I'll say is, when she did win that Berlin Prize, she had some comments that did not rub everyone the right way in terms of everything that was going on in Gaza. I don't know if that's going to be an element of support or probably an element that voters are going to want to avoid again. I think the other factor that we need to mention here, alongside coup d'etat, is the idea that Dahomey is being distributed by MUBI, and as far as I'm concerned, I don't think MUBI has broken into the Oscars yet, either in documentary or foreign language film, international film so even though I think this stands to be a banner year for MUBI yeah, this stands to be a banner year for MUBI.

Joseph:

You're 100% right. It'd be interesting to see if it breaks into this category as well, but it's certainly something that the campaign is going to have to overcome the fact that it's being distributed by movie.

Jules:

Right, 100%. But, like we said, I think one of them has to land here.

Joseph:

I will say this, that between the two of them. If Soundtrack to Akuta Taga got listed by the Director's Guild Award, dahomey did really well, I believe, at the European Film Awards this is the kind of film that is going to appeal to those international non-fiction filmmakers, international documentarians and, in general, the international art house scene you can see. Go crazy for this movie yeah, 100.

Jules:

Possibly could they both get nominated. I mean, I'm not seeing it right now, them both being included in a list, um, but it could happen. I just I'm not predicting that to happen. I think it's one or the other and then it gets a little trickier. I really liked the option of Black Box Diaries it got the BAFTA nomination recently, which I think is great.

Jules:

Another film that's topical. Those kinds of films that are topical do really well in this category, more so than possibly, uh, more personal kind of uh, documentaries. I won't get to that in a minute with some of the other more uh popular titles that got left off of the shortlist and that some people are possibly thinking might land and I and I and I disagree, but we'll get there um, this film tackling the Japanese legal system and outdated sex laws and just the way that uh, the filmmaker went about creating this film. I think all of that is very inspiring and very, um, like I said, topical and uh, something that I think the documentary branch would champion. So I really do like its inclusion in this list. Uh, what do you think?

Joseph:

I think that you're right. Black box diary stands an excellent chance to get in. Here's another film that got nominated at the international documentary association and the cinema honors. It did not get into the director's guild award, but it did get nominated for that bafta, which I think was very promising. Yeah, I believe the film is being directed by the subject of the documentary and I think that would be something that voters are going to be very tempted to recognize.

Joseph:

Yeah, I think it's also again another unique perspective here, just the idea of it talking about, you know, sexual harassment and sexual abuse. It's a unique title here among that list right, yeah it doesn't have another parallel, so it might really stand out among the rest of the titles I agree 100, so I really like that film. Uh, I also. I'll also say that it's distributor, which I believe is mtv documentaries.

Joseph:

Right, they've been doing really well yeah, in the documentary section, both in feature and in the subsection of short yeah they've been long listed for a while and I think they've even gotten a nomination or two in either category or both categories. So I think that its distributor has inroads with documentary voters 100.

Jules:

I agree. Um. A film that we've been talking about recently, uh was porcelain war, which made the PGA section of the documentary films. I have not seen the film yet, but I know from what I've heard that it's an audience favorite. We don't have a film in this lineup that's tackling the Ukraine war that's going on, and so I think that's a dark horse. I think that's a dark horse to look at.

Joseph:

Um not enough people are talking about, I think, porcelain war. I think everyone is under the assumption that the war in ukraine was prominently spotlighted, I believe last year right 20 days in maripol. So I think some prognosticators, pundits, people who follow the Oscar race, are sort of predicting that the Ukraine war as a subject matter is not going to be in the final five.

Joseph:

It could happen that could happen and that could happen. But I will say that there have been some very promising signs for the title lately, including, as you said, its nomination among the Producers Guild Awards. You know, usually the Producers Guild Awards, they tend to favor more populous titles. I think a film like Superman was nominated there, I believe that it was. But they do tend to get one title in to the Academy Award Top 5 for Best Documentary and this year there's really only one title to choose from, and that would be Porcelain War.

Joseph:

And that always called my attention. Later on it would be nominated for best documentary among the Directors Guild of America and that really called my attention.

Joseph:

And I'm starting to feel that porcelain war is going to be a spoiler here, and we talked about the subject matter not just in terms of the Ukraine war, but how appealing it's going to be for voters of any kind, even in something like documentary and nonfiction film. The perspective of art in the context of some kind of political upheaval. That's something that I think really going to call their attention.

Jules:

Yeah, 100 percent. That's something that this category really welcomes, and so I think this is something. This is a film that could certainly spoil this list. Um, I don't know, could there possibly be a scenario where a film like black box diaries and porcelain war get in here and soundtrack to akuta and the homie, kind of eat a little bit of each other's votes?

Joseph:

to some extent. Possibly the homie and satire to akuta tom may be a little too, dare I say, highbrow intellectual, yeah. Art house maybe, yeah, and films like porcelain war and black box diaries might be more instantaneous sort of emotional pics, yeah, right, yeah, so I think you're right. That could end up being a factor. The other thing I'll say about porcelain war is you and I have talked about those audience awards that it picks up. It got a grand jury prize, I believe, at Sundance.

Joseph:

And so that was a good sign for the film as well.

Jules:

Yeah, so that one is concerning to me. I think that it's a big dark horse Will and Harper. I know early on it was a bigger favor to get a nominee for documentary feature. However, this category tends to prefer again these more topical subject matter rather than personal experience that's being documented. That being said, I know there's something. I know there's topicality in will and harper as well, but it's not as in the forefront as possibly these other films that are just that, are just dealing with this subject matter in a broad sense right and less in a personal sense right.

Joseph:

It's not, as you know, charged as some of these other documentaries in tackling its subject matter which I think is possibly something that's going to help the film stand out, but also maybe something that's going to unfortunately get it eclipsed by these other documentaries. Right, right 100.

Jules:

So you know I don't think that william harper is going to land here. Um, I wonder if a film that is really, when you read the I have not seen it when you read the synopsis of the film, that it really you know, raises intrigue and I wonder if that's going to happen for voters is a film hollywood gate oh yeah, and it sounds like a really uh, interesting, fascinating film, uh, documentary film, and it landed a spot in the director's guild it did, which I think is not something to overlook.

Jules:

Nope, um, that is a film that very few people are predicting to land in here, and I think it's a dark horse as well, also a very unique perspective, right, all that access that the filmmaker was able to get.

Joseph:

At the same time, I do wonder if this is going to be a chapter in american history that the academy is not eager to revisit right away right right. I will say it did do well at the international documentary association, I believe, and the cinema eye honors and that director's guild nomination, I think, is also pretty impactful. I wish the distributor was a little bit more notable. I think right now it's fourth act films. It looks wonderful.

Joseph:

I haven't seen it yeah but it's certainly when you see the preview for it, it certainly calls your attention super yeah.

Jules:

I feel like that's a film that many in this branch would check out. I know the remarkable life of eibolin was a big crowd pleaser. I think it premiered at sundance excuse me, I was wrong.

Jules:

Hollywood gate did not get nominated for either a cinema eye honors or an international documentary association, not in the category of best non-fiction film I think, it was noted in other categories in both awards right, right, um, another film that is on the radar, but I think more in the periphery is the remarkable life of eibolin was a big crowd pleaser. I believe it premiered at sundance. Um, it's a touching film. Uh, it's certainly a film that I think voters would be moved by if they turn it on. I don't think this filmmaker has had a lot of success into this category. I believe the Painter and the Thief, his last film.

Jules:

Was also shortlisted, I believe, Right but it didn't make the final five.

Joseph:

No.

Jules:

And I really liked that film of his. He has a very interesting way of tackling his documentaries which, again, I don't think are as accessible to this branch. You know, there's a lot of footage in this film that's animated computer graphics based on what it's about. Obviously, there's an element to of disability in this film which is quite touching, uh, but a big chunk of the film has these other elements that are very creative, very interesting, very thought-provoking, but again they sort of, uh, stand away, you know, from the kind of things they tend to welcome into this category, I think I agree with you.

Joseph:

I think this filmmaker will be nominated eventually. I quite enjoyed the film. I think again, it really stands out. It has a unique perspective on disability and I think that it's also a major crowd pleaser. I can imagine people checking Academy Award nominations, checking out this title and being very surprised by it and like porcelain war. I think the film uses the idea of art and the idea of gaming and virtual reality worlds and really expands the idea of them and how necessary.

Joseph:

They are and it's exploring these you know topics that are timely and I think that's going to possibly get votes from some of the individuals who are going to vote here.

Jules:

Right, and I think that those are what I would consider the biggest contenders for this award. I'm dying, personally, to see Eno. I have not seen it. I'm a humongous fan of his. I can't wait to see that film. But just based on the very nature of how this film is tackling brian edel's work um is you know the the parameters of that film? Uh, I believe every time you see it it's going to be something new. I can't imagine that's something that they're going to be too too thrilled about to welcome into this category. I can't wait to see it.

Joseph:

In general. This is another really beautiful category, I think, if we can put on our Academy activist hat again here if there is every reason to nominate 10 films for Best Picture. Then there is equal reason to nominate 10 non-fiction films in the category of documentary, just as there is every reason to nominate 10 animated films in the category of animated feature. All the work here is distinct. All the work here is unique, has a interesting perspective on timely topics. So many of this work looks interesting.

Joseph:

Queendom looked fascinating as well yeah, I think that we narrowed it down to the major contenders and the people who could possibly surprise something. Like you know, I don't think stands a very good chance, but it sounds absolutely fascinating yeah, yeah and it's just, I think, further fuel to the fire that other categories beyond best picture need to be expanded yeah, 100, the quality is just there.

Joseph:

Yeah, I think that that's, that's really well said and I would really champion that a film like union, for example, that we didn't discuss, I think would be totally something that is going to catch the eye of voters. I think the red flag there is that it doesn't have a distributor yet, but all the work here has the potential to break in.

Joseph:

I remember one year recently that we talked about a film called a house made of splinters right you had thought that, based on what the film was about, it stood a good chance of stealing a spot, although it had not been spotlighted to such a degree as some of the other titles that were long listed. And it did get that spot. Yeah, because, again, all the films on these long lists tend to be very good films for these categories yeah, um, sort of these sort of ghettoized categories.

Jules:

Um, yeah, 100, I agree with that statement. Um, I hope that that can become a reality one day. Um, but so for my final five, it's really tough with my last spot, but I'm gonna say northerland sugarcane daughters, soundtrack to Coup d'etat. And that last spot is a real fight between Black Box Diaries and Porcelain War, but I'm going to go with Black Box Diaries.

Joseph:

A very compelling list. I can see that being the list that's announced Oscar morning. Mine diverges just a little bit, but again, our final predictions will be up right before nominations come up, and you can see that on our Twitter page. What I'm thinking right now is no Other Land, sugarcane Daughters, dahomey and Porcelain War.

Jules:

Right, that sounds like a very, very, very plausible list as well. Okay, and so that was our rundown into Best Documentary Feature, a category that's still very much in flux. All right, thanks for tuning in. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg. Licenses by 3.0.

Joseph:

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