Academy Anonymous
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2024-2025; Oscar Nominations Postmortem
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- We compare the Oscar nominees category-by-category against our final predictions
- Prediction blindspots & miscalculations VS. Accurate early hunches & last-minute "On The Pulse" gut feelings
- Oscar voting patterns - Stats that Stuck and Stats that Strayed
- Previewing winners and spoilers a month out from the Oscars ceremony
- We NOMINATE the Best of Nomination Morning and... the Worst
hey, welcome back to academy anonymous. I'm jules and I'm joseph, and this episode of a of our oscar post-mortem is long overdue. We apologize for being MIA. Coincidentally enough, because of the crisis that's been going on in Los Angeles with the fires, the Oscar nominations were announced, oddly enough, the same day that Sundance started, right, and so we've had our hands full with Sundance titles and being in Utah and catching a bunch of Sundance titles and coming back and seeing some more virtual screenings. So this episode has sort of been postponed and postponed and we're finally getting back to it now and reviewing the Oscar nominations, what we got right, what we got wrong, where we went wrong and what stats have fallen by the wayside, and sort of giving a very brief view as to where these categories stand right now who we think leads the pack per category to possibly or likely win their category.
Joseph:Exactly. So. This is our belated Academy, autopsy. So let's see what the body reveals.
Jules:Right. So let's jump right into the biggest category, best picture, and so our predictions. It was pretty easy to predict the top eight. It was really the last two that people had question marks and not surprised. No surprise there. The last two were the surprise nominations in that group.
Joseph:People got comfortable people got comfortable with spots nine and ten, right right. So who are the nominees?
Jules:so we have Anora and the brutalist and a complete unknown and conclave and dune part two, and emilia perez and the substance and wicked.
Joseph:Those were the eight that were easy to predict and we'll call those the pga8 because everyone who sort of got lazy with their predictions, which is a bunch of people just end up copying and pasting the pga10, right right exactly, especially thinking that last year they had 10 titles and that this year they were going to maybe repeat that streak, especially with certain titles, you know, running out of steam at the end, like like a title like Sing Sing, for example.
Jules:Exactly, and so we were certainly two people who thought that that was going to happen. The PGA was going to continue their streak and get the 10 films correct again. So we thought that a real pain would get in, and we thought that september 5, which was a surprise pga nominee, would get in as well. We thought that for a real pain, for me at least. I thought that that film stood a very good chance because I saw that it was a film that was largely predicted to be the best supporting actor winner, yeah, and it was, uh, very comfortably going to get nominated for Best Screenplay. So we had a conversation about it and we have to really look back at a time. I'm not sure how often it happens that an actor wins an acting category and that same film is nominated for Screenplay and that film doesn't get nominated for Best picture especially in expanded lists exactly, so we had mentioned regina king in beale street, but they had a shortened list that year.
Joseph:Same thing with alison jannie in I Tonya and if you look at someone like christopher plummer, for beginners they also had a shortened list. So we were really surprised that at the end, with 10 spots a real pain which people are pegging as the front runner for supporting actor and a surefire best original screenplay nominee was not able to get in even though when I saw it, I told you I felt like it was a small, possibly too small, too intimate film.
Joseph:The emma stone producer factor could be working against it, as well and I hated, I absolutely hated and I told you over and over again and it's in our best picture um final predictions episode if you want to check it out. But I told you I hated fox searchlight or searchlight getting two nominations here I don't think that they had made a case for being nominated twice.
Jules:They didn't put in the work to do that right and I think that you were right. You were completely right. Right, and if anything, the A Real Pain snub for Best Picture just made that more possible in my mind that Kieran Culkin is not the favorite to win that category even though everything seems to point that he is.
Jules:When we talked about that film in an earlier episode, I would really watch out for Edward Norton for Complete Unknown, which did really well with nominations. This is his fourth nomination he has never won. He's playing a real life figure, yeah, and that's sort of catnip for the Academy, as we've talked about. And so a real pain missing best picture really sort of started painting the picture for me that A real pain missing best picture really sort of started painting the picture for me that Kieran Culkin is not a lock for supporting actor yeah, and we'll talk about that when we get to that race Exactly.
Jules:Exactly, and so we failed with a real pain and we failed. I will say that I took the charge here in putting September 5 as that last nominee. Again, I thought it would. We thought it would replicate the PGA and I could certainly see that movie getting a screenplay nomination. We predicted it for a screenplay nomination and, looking for that last spot, you should really look at director acting and screenplay to fill out that last spot. I thought the PGA last minute mention was a sign that people were watching that it's a very good movie. If you watch it, I think you're gonna vote for it right. And so I thought, okay, a number 10 spot for september 5. And that blew up in our face because it did not happen.
Jules:Most people's face, I would say well, actually I would say I'll go. I would say no because I would say most people were predicting a real pain, as that number nine spot and sing, sing as the number 10 also blew up in their face.
Joseph:I mean, I will say that we went with september 5th thinking that the pga nominations or snubs of sing sing certainly and nickel boys, but certainly sing sing with that sag pga snub was the final nail in the coffin some people sort of held on to that at the end and it didn't work out either, right, I think the the miracle movie was nickel boys right that got snubbed in both exactly ends up getting nominated, and so those two were in our final predictions.
Jules:A real pain. And uh, september 5, they didn't get in, and instead nickel boys got in plan b, plan B, plan B always has a plan A to get in. And Sony Pictures Classics, who had a great year. They managed to get I'm Still here in which, at the very last minute, you were very bullish on it getting a surprise nomination for Best Picture.
Joseph:I have all year long I have been banging the drum that I think that there is an open spot in picture, or multiple open spots in picture, and that we do not have the foreign language film winner among there, that the populist sort of energy that Emilia Perez was conjuring to be nominated here was not the energy of the Drive my Car movie, and for a while I had thought it was going to be Seed of the Sacred Fig and neon, with a double nod here. But then sony pictures had an amazing year they had great titles.
Joseph:They had this venice winner. They had this golden globe actress winner. At the very end I quoted it and it's in our best picture breakdown episode before the nominations were announced. I really thought that I'm still here would get in and here's why I love it.
Joseph:No studio, no distributor got in twice, right, sony pictures gets in there and, and no one has to repeat, you don't have to have two a24 movies with brutaalist or sing sing again. There just wasn't enough work to justify those two nominations and I think also that's that movie that I think we've been missing, which is that sort of drive my car seed of the sacred fig small.
Jules:These nominations, really the only big award that they could really look at that had given out their awards was the Golden Globe, and so I do really feel that, more than I'm still here being the quote-unquote foreign language film spot in the Best Picture top 10, because after you saw the nominations, that Emilia Perez had 13 nominations, I think it was clear that that was the foreign film spot for them. I think things have changed and we're going to get into it. I think things have certainly changed since then. However, I think what had more to do with I'm Still here, getting in is that the Globes had announced their winners and that Fernanda Torres had won that award and that precipitated or compelled voters to, or more voters to, check out that movie. Had she not won that award and had it gone to any other nominee on that list, I do not think I'm Still here would have gotten in. I think I'm still here succeeds greatly because of that fernando torres win and also because it's 20 picture classics.
Jules:They know how to campaign and they had a great year, and you and I were always puzzled to think well, listen, the outrun um pedro's film room, um, uh, I'm still here. It's not very conceivable that they're going to miss Lo and behold, they didn't Right Um. So they certainly know what they're doing. They certainly know how to campaign. Never count them out. But I do think an instrumental part in that movie getting into the top 10 is that a lot of voters were going to put it on after she won that golden globe one. And as we've talked about golden globe one and as we've talked about as if you said, it's the kind of movie, it's timely, um, you're going to uh, respond to it. Right, you put it on, you're going to respond to it, and the likelihood of you placing it high in your ballot is high.
Joseph:I was very fortunate to watch this movie early and I agree with you one of the reasons, a major reason why it was nominated was because people put on the screener after that golden globe win, which is why it was nominated, was because people put on the screener after that Golden Globe win, which is why it was significant. At the same time, having seen the film, I understood that it was the kind of film where once you put the screener in, that's really all you need and that's why and we'll get into it as the rest of the Oscar race develops but in categories like foreign film, in categories like actress and even in categories like picture. But in categories like foreign film, in categories like actress and even in categories like picture, once you put that movie in, it's going to be very difficult to rank that performance, that film, that screenplay, whatever category it's in, it's going to be so difficult to rank it outside of your top three. Right?
Joseph:The material in and of itself is just so compelling, right? So timely. It's just so compelling, so timely. And then you add to that that not only is the material really good, but it's handled and presented in more than just a satisfactory way, an adequate, appropriate way. It's done tastefully, it's done artistically, creatively, and so it's sort of the kind of film I've been sort of saying it all year it just needs eyeballs. Once it has eyeballs, the film will film. I've been sort of saying it all year it just needs eyeballs once it has eyeballs.
Joseph:The film will take care of itself exactly, and that's what happened.
Jules:The golden globe win, sony picture classics they made it happen. That was a big surprise, one of the biggest surprises. Certainly the best picture I'm still here. Nickel boys were the big surprises. Very beautiful inclusions into this list, um.
Joseph:Surprising, shocking inclusions. I would say that I was certainly not pegging either of those films to make it in here.
Jules:I was sure that Nickel Boys wouldn't, because of the kind of film it is, and it's a really beautiful film, but I can already see a lot of audience members, or rather a lot of voters, not responding to it. Its technique and its approach is specific and artful. It's not for everyone. It's a beautiful film, though. It's wonderful that it's on this list, but I feel like it's going to alienate some people. Absolutely, and so I was sure that it was not going to get an I for Best Picture.
Jules:And the best it was going to do is a lone screenplay nomination and lo and behold, you mentioned on the start of the episode Plan B, plan B just Dee Dee Gardner and Jeremy Kleiner.
Joseph:They just really know what they're doing. Amazon is an atrocious, atrocious studio to be a part of. They just really know how to, you know, ruin a movie's chances, whether it's Challengers or Fire Inside, whatever it is. They just really don't know what they're doing. But plan b, they have the secret sauce. I mean, the movie is great. So many great movies were not nominated this year, so that's kind of irrelevant. But plan b knows who they're selling to, knows who they're campaigning to, and they've had a lot of success.
Joseph:And I would never have thought that nickel boys would have made it in over sing sing. But it just goes to show you how that lack of financial success for Sing Sing was, you know, a terrible idea from A24. And I also think we need to talk about, you know, because sort of a weird reverse situation happened and we need to talk about the Scott Feinberg of it, all right, who is a professional at this and sort of you know, banged the drum very early for September 5th, putting in number two in his predictions. Banged the drum very early for September 5th, putting in number two in his predictions, putting it all over the place, and he got that Hail Mary PGA nomination and I remember him being someone who was a little bit dare I say, alienated by Nickel Boys and someone who was certainly hesitant to put it in very many categories and I don't know if he put it at the end I don't think that he did but just that sort of idea that he has the same sort of eyes or mentality that an austria voter.
Joseph:Just it doesn't pan out all the time. And I think you know scott feinberg, you know, had to eat a lot of crow for putting september 5th at number two and it not making it to any category except the sole screenplay nomination, which was really what nickel boys was supposed to do right nickel boys was supposed to be just adapted screenplay because it was so empty, right.
Joseph:But here it is. It got into best picture, possibly because scott feinberg does not take plan b seriously. I think he did this same sort of thing with women talking, which one adapted screenplay. I'm not sure he listed it in picture, but again, women talking.
Jules:Plan b, plan b I will say that I think the last time I looked at his predictions, right before the oscars I'm not sure it was his final predictions, but I do think I remember September 5th had fallen to like number 10. Whatever. However, I will give him this benefit of the doubt that, having seen the movie, it really was the.
Jules:It really was a film that had all the ingredients I think yeah to get nominated for best picture and to do well at the at the academy. It had enough to get nominated for best picture and to do well at the at the Academy. It had enough to get nominated for acting awards yeah, it's superbly acted. Uh, certainly screenplay. It got that editing sound design, so it had enough. They just it was just fumbled and it just didn't happen. Maybe it broke too late.
Joseph:Paramount was too preoccupied with gladiator to make anything out of September.
Jules:five or better, man or better occupied with gladiator to make anything out of september 5, or better man, or better exactly, and so that's what ended up happening there, but to his, to his credit, it is. I understand how he saw that movie and thought, yeah, this is a major oscar player, yeah, um because it should have worked out.
Joseph:Yeah, it just didn't. It just sometimes also works the other way, where you see a movie and you say, you know, I didn't like it too much or I didn't understand it and therefore it's not a major Oscar player and that comes some sometimes that comes to buy you in the book at the end, right Like Nickel Boys, exactly, exactly, and so that's what happened with Best Picture.
Joseph:I mean a couple of interesting things that I see here is um, I don't know if we're going to mention tallies yet or we're going to wait to the end to talk about tallies well, we can talk about them now.
Jules:I the tallies are, um, if I'm not mistaken, uh emilia paris, with the most nominated films of 13, one short away from being the most nominations lala land.
Jules:Ever got in lala land of lala land um, and it probably might have gotten that had there been a second sound category, who knows? Or had tolena gomez gotten in exactly? And uh, then it was 10 nominations for the brutalist and 10 for wicked, which overperformed, and we had it underperforming on our list. Yeah, um, eight nominations for both conclave and a complete unknown. No surprise there. Well, actually a few surprises with those two movies, some categories. They missed that, I thought they would get in.
Jules:And then I believe Enora has six nominations, the Substance has five, along with Dune Part 2, which did terrible and really for lack of a better phrase really effed our predictions.
Joseph:How many nominations did it get at the end? Five, five. So it tied. Didn't it tie the substance?
Jules:Yes, it tied the substance and so you know that really hurt our predictions because we had it for a lot of techs and it really was shockingly snubbed from some big techs. Yeah, and we'll get into that. And then you know I'm Still here had three nominations, nickel Boys has two. You have a few other films that have multiple nominations. So, for example, the Wild Robot got three nominations, nosferatu got four nominations, the Apprentice got two nominations, sing Sing, which did not get Best Picture, still got three nominations. Wow, and that is very surprising. You would think with three nominations it's not hard to see that film also getting a best picture nomination and making it four.
Jules:That's happened before plenty of times yeah that just, I think, goes further to your point of how much it factored for that movie that it just didn't make any noise when it came out, maybe if a24 had skipped on buying the buddha list and they had concentrated all their effort on a re-release or on a critical campaign for the film.
Joseph:It really needed to be in the position that onora was in all year in terms of the critical darling, the american critical darling. It just did not accomplish that. It's unfortunate. Um, I think it's interesting. A lot of movies of multiple nominations. None of them could break through, whether it was robert edgar's first time and a bona fide hit, or animation again, whether it's flow or the wild robot certainly not the apprentice, but sing sing must have gotten, maybe close even though again, they still dodged it for two nominations for nickel boys and three for I'm still here yeah I do think we need to spend some time uh.
Jules:Real Pain also got two nominations. Flow got two nominations.
Joseph:Two for A Real Pain. Some people thought it was going to be three of best picture. Shout out to Mubi. Mubi making history here, First nomination here, great to see, very happy to see that, very exciting. And then I think we also have to mention I would mention Onora and I would say I take off my hat to Neon they again captured six nominations to match Parasite, eventual best picture winner.
Jules:If that's foreshadowing or not, I don't know, but six nominations is nothing to sort of scoff at yeah, and we had talked about I think that we were both a little bit iffy about that editing nomination. However, I felt pretty good about it getting six. I think you were on the fence about a few nominations, but it ultimately got the six that it was supposed to get Right and then also Emilia Perez, 13,.
Joseph:One Shy of La La Land, just to complete sort of the La La Land cycle that's going on here this year, Two producers from La La Land were nominated again this year for different movies. You have a nominee from lalaland nominated for producing a complete unknown, and then you have a nominee from lalaland nominated for producing wicked of course, none of them is the leading film, emilia perez, which was one short of lalaland, but it's still the most nominated foreign language film here, ever, I believe ever.
Joseph:Ever, I think, surpassing Crouching Tiger, hidden Dragon and Roma yes, two far superior films. But also how about the idea that I think for the first time ever and I think this is important, we didn't talk about it For the first time ever, best Picture is going to have two foreign language films? Yes, very interesting. We didn't talk about maybe the other factor that really helped I'm Still here get in which is $13 million, whatever their currency is, that's huge. It's going to open in the States soon, so we'll see if it can have success here.
Joseph:But you know, it just goes to show you, whoever you are, whatever distributor you are, whatever sort of producer or campaigner you are, whatever distributor you are, whatever sort of producer or campaigner you are, whatever artist you are tied to a film. A campaign that reaches sort of the international audience is now much more important and much more powerful than anything you can do domestically 100%. The only campaign that matters, I would argue, almost purely domestically, is the Wicked Top Gun Maverick campaign, which is a billion dollars. If you're not a billion dollars, then you should be spending most of your energy campaigning to the international members of the academy, not the domestic members of the academy.
Jules:Right and we've talked about that often on this podcast of the foreign influence on this branch continues to grow and grow and it's only going to get bigger. The foreign influence on this branch continues to grow and grow and it's only going to get bigger. And before we go on, I want to mention two things. Um number one, our report card, so to speak, was uh, there are 120 nominations that one could have possibly predicted at um, across 23 different categories. We got 97 correct and we got 23 incorrect.
Jules:And on gold Derby, if you guys know about gold Derby, we are in the top 1.4% of accurate predictions. Uh, we, I believe we're number 165 out of 11,000 that uh, people that predicted um, our goal was to be in the top 25. Uh, actually last year we did pretty well, uh, before we had we had started this podcast, uh, we were in the top 50, uh, which is nice. Uh, we fell a little bit down, which is disappointing, um, but last year actually, we got uh, a couple more wrong and we got a couple more right this year, but I guess more people got some more right. So we ended up at 165 out of 11,000, but still the top 1.4%.
Jules:So you know a little bit of a pat on the back there, hopefully.
Joseph:It's also really difficult, though, because we had talked about, in that episode again, our best picture breakdown. We had mentioned I'm still here which at that point was ranking 100 to one to get in for best picture, but you're just so hesitant to not take the safe bet on your final predictions. That's why a lot of people are going to base their final predictions on whoever the top 5 or top 10 of gold derby are, and they're going to be right most of the time. I would argue that's not fun. The fun part is to be Scott Feinberg and peg September 5 at number 2 after you see it and then have to eat crow on it or watch I'm Still here and sort of say you know, I think that this film if it has enough eyeballs, it will go the distance and sort of be right that way.
Jules:Right, I would prefer that Right. I think our goal was to get no more than 20 wrong. I mean, it's pretty hard to get 100% accurate. Oh yeah, of course our goal was to get no more than 20. We got 23 wrong, so we were over by three. And, of course, post nominations, you kind of, you know, beat yourself over the head and think about better choices you could have made and inklings or intuitions you could have followed in order to get a better score. And that happens every year. So that's a bit frustrating about this whole thing. However, again, we did get only 23 wrong and we took some major bets. For example, we predicted that James Mangold would get an eye for complete unknown, and he did.
Joseph:We've been quoting that for a while, for a long time, and I've been banging the drum on that. When we talk about it, it's now or never for James Mangold. It's now or never for James Mangold.
Jules:It's now or never. For a long time and other nominees sprinkled throughout that we took some bold guesses on and we got them right. So by that I'm trying to say that just based on our results, we got 23 wrong, and had we only followed Gold Derby and just predicted the five on each category, they still were 23.
Joseph:The lazy way.
Jules:You still would have gotten 23 wrong.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:So it was really about those last one or two or three that maybe you know I go over my head Could I have gotten it right? Just little tweaks here and there. Maybe instead of getting 23 wrong, we could have gotten 21 wrong or 20 wrong and we would have been in the top 25, which was our goal. So you know, that's a frustration that you, you know that I certainly encounter.
Joseph:That's pretty good I still think that's pretty good. I think the bittersweet part for me is when you sort of get it wrong, like we had our last two spots wrong on Best Picture. We ran the numbers, we thought a real pain was safer and that September 5, the Hail Mary meant something. But when you lose those two spots to something like Nickel Boys and I'm Still here, you know it's a little bit bittersweet because, yes, you did not get them all right, but you did get two them all right, but you did get two of the more deserving best picture mentions on there, so that that I think that always makes me feel a little bit better. It makes me feel worse when you're predicting something it didn't happen and then you got someone who was inferior to that person getting nominated. I think that, to me, is more frustrating so I would.
Joseph:I'll go ahead and I'll take the eight best picture, Correct Because I got I'm still here and nickel boys on there.
Jules:Well, I hear what you're saying. I feel differently. I'm very competitive and you know we work really hard on this stuff and even on Oscar, right before Oscar nominations, we were had a late night doing our predictions, trying to get it a hundred percent right, as close to 100% as possible. So I have that competitive drive and I want to get it right.
Joseph:But wouldn't you feel worse if it was Gladiator 2 nominated there instead of Nickel Boys?
Jules:I mean, possibly in retrospect I might. But you know, right now I just feel the disappointment or the regret that I couldn't get at least two more right so that I could, you know, have met my goal. So we differ a little bit there.
Joseph:You're a half empty guy, I'm a half full guy. I'm still here. And then the boys were nominated. Come on.
Jules:Yeah, yeah, no, and that's great. I just, you know, I just wish I, looking back at the categories, I wish I could have just gotten one or two right and had followed my gut with certain nominees, like, for example, I really thought Amelia Paris for makeup was going to happen and I thought it was going to get on for cinematography, and I wish I had just like, just that would have made a difference.
Joseph:And we'll talk about it, yeah.
Jules:But just that would have made a difference. That would have given us two more right, and that would have put us higher at in God and possibly closer or, if not, on the top 25, which is what our goal was. But why?
Joseph:the hell would you nominate Amelia Perez for makeup?
Jules:Come on.
Joseph:That's such a ridiculous nomination.
Jules:We'll get into that. But the point is I personally can't help but look at what I got wrong and how close I could have been to getting it more right and landing closer to my goal and my target. But anyway, that's something I wanted to mention and get out of the way. So we are still in the top 1.4% of gold Derby, number 165 out of, I think, 11,300 people who predicted.
Joseph:Yeah, a lot of people predict.
Jules:So not that bad. Uh, 1.4% isn't terrible, um, and the other thing I want to mention is not to lose sight that the nominations this year were a little bit thrown off, their usual sort of you know way of doing things pattern, in that we had been going through the crisis in Los Angeles with the fires that most likely had an effect as to how many members voted. We could have had a very low tally of members at large vote for the nominees, more than in recent years, more than in usual years. I will say that you and I feel very adamant, and we've talked about it. I think, briefly in past episodes, that the group of voters who are voting for the nominees is very different from the group of voters who are voting for the nominees, is very different from the group of voters who are voting for the winners, in that the group that's voting for the nominees is certainly smaller than the group that's voting for the winners, because, in order to vote for the nominees, you have to put upon the task of watching all these screeners or these films, and not everyone is a has the free time to do that or has the time to do that, and not every one of these members, I think, wants to do that, so they would much rather wait to see.
Jules:Okay, so what's the list?
Jules:Okay, from five, this is the one that I think is the best. I think a lot of, for example, actors, who are the biggest branch in the academy, they vote in that manner, that manner, and so I, you know, wanted to be clear that you, and I really do feel that you know, year by year, the pool of people who are voting for nominees is probably smaller than people think, um, and so I might not take them as much votes as people think to get into that top five, uh, but I think that this particular year, knowing that a lot of the voter base, at least a big portion, is in Los Angeles, I do feel that an even smaller pool of people voted. And if that's not true, then I at least expect that a lot less LA-based voters voted and there was more a pronounced effect of having foreign voters have their say because they weren't going through. You know the LA fires, so possibly, you know the whatever foreign voters thought was the best per category had a little bit more weight this year than in other years.
Joseph:Yeah, that's my feeling as well, and you and I talk about it. There are two separate games nominations and winners. When we're talking about predicting nominees, we're talking about chess. That, I think, is the more challenging task when we talk about predicting winners. We've moved on to checkers now and it could be a little less entertaining, but I agree with that as well.
Jules:That's a good analogy yeah.
Joseph:They're just two completely different games and you're going to get a bunch of people who are waiting to play checkers and try to check off the winner and a lot of people who are just a little too busy or disinterested in voting for nominees. As you said, the pool is not very large. I think it has to be significant, but it doesn't have to be seismic.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:Like it is going to be for anyone to sort of pick a name out of five. That's very easy to do and most voters will do that.
Jules:And people think that People, I think, generally think, oh, the Academy votes for these nominees and you have thousands, upon thousands, upon thousands of people placing their vote.
Joseph:But it's most likely not as much as not at all, not at all, and I I wish they would release that data but there's no way, there's no way they would do that. Um, but I think the other thing I would mention about best picture is you know, I don't think we've spent enough time talking about dune, so I want to not shout out. What's the opposite of a shout out? I want to criticize, I guess.
Jules:Yeah, I guess I'm gonna lay this at the opposite of a shout out. I want to Criticize.
Joseph:Judge. Yeah, I guess I'm going to lay this at the feet of Warner Brothers.
Jules:Yes, in a way I feel like in a way, I feel like inadvertently, they got punished, you know, for the mistakes they made this year with Joker Fully Ado.
Joseph:A bunch of mistakes really.
Jules:Yes, and so in a way it feels to a film, um. So in a way it kind of feels like I don't think they went out of their way to try to punish warner brothers, but that's what it comes across.
Joseph:Yeah, I yeah when a film like dune manages only five nominations, tied with the substance, a movie made for less than a quarter of its budget. Um, so I think it just goes to show the sort of david's ass laugh, you know. You know, throw it at the wall and see what sticks, sort of method of releasing movies. You know, here's a movie that came out february, march, spring, looked like a surefire thing, got five nominations. Major, major snubs in my opinion.
Joseph:But you know, we're talking about a studio that mishandled so many movies this year, whether it was juror number two or whether it was furiosa, they barely got to the finish line with this movie. And just goes to show you do not split your movie in two, just don't make a three-hour part one. Get your part one and your part two and try to make a three-hour movie out of that. Or maybe, if you're smart, maybe if you can pull off a part one and a part two in the same year. But the part one, part two strategy is not smart or beneficial for anyone. Warner brothers should be looking in the mirror and sort of saying we could have won best picture and thus director in 2021 over koda and power the dog, whatever fight that was.
Joseph:We could have won that award. And here we are. We're going to be sort of we're invited, but there's really no reason for you to go, dune 2. You really don't. You don't have to show up. Really, you know, maybe you'll walk away with one award, maybe.
Jules:Certainly certainly over, underperformed drastically and had major major snobs. Okay, moving on to the best director category. Um, this was a surprising list for me personally because we had predicted, uh, brady corbett for the brutalist, jaco diard for amelia paris, sean baker for honora, edward berger for conclave and james mangled for complete unknown. And our spoiler was actually denis villeneuve in that veteran spot for dune part two. Obviously that that didn't happen. Dune was terrible, but I was really. I really thought Edward Berger would get in for Conclave and I really felt that Coralie Farge would not get in for the Substance Right, and so to see that switch was very surprising to me. I think in Gold Derby she was in the top five, so it wasn't that surprising. I think in Gold Derby she was in the top five, so it wasn't that surprising. I think that they were more surprised by the James Mangold inclusion. However, I'm the opposite. I was surprised by the Coralie Farge inclusion. I just felt that she was too new, too new on their radar for the director's branch and that someone like Edward Berger, with the success he'd had for Aquila on the Western Front, was more on their radar and probably was a film that many members liked very much and didn't get a Best Director nomination. This was the chance to write that.
Jules:You and I had talked in previous episodes about how it was a little strange to have people like Brady Corbett, in his third film, nominated alongside possibly someone like Edward Berger for his, I think, third feature film. He's had a lot of a storied career in TV but I think in terms of feature films he's had a few, a very limited number like Brady Corbett. So we had talked about how possibly it's not does it make a lot of sense to include them both on the list and that that could hurt Edward Berger. We certainly thought that Edward Berger was somewhat vulnerable at some point. But you can love you. The same sort of critique to Coralie Farge, who the substances are second, I believe. Motion picture I believe I might. I don't think.
Jules:I'm wrong there, and so they still did nominate two relatively new filmmakers with relatively short careers. It just wasn't edward berger and it was coralie farge.
Joseph:I think we ended up going with the dga5, I believe yes, and that always smelled wrong to me. I will say I will pat us in the back saying we were one of the first to get on the train of the James Mangold. Now or Never campaign.
Jules:It happened.
Joseph:Congratulations, james Mangold. I don't know if it'll happen again, but congratulations. I mean we knew that again.
Joseph:It's just the stars had aligned in a very sort of Taylor Hackford sort of way in a sort of serendipitous way with Walk the Line that it really felt like the movie is just going to be appealing enough to directors and writers and producers to not only get the best picture. But for him to finally break through the Coralie is a surprise, but maybe it shouldn't have been when we see it. I mean, I don't like the DGA getting all five right. And I told you that there were two movies that are sort of steaming each other's energy in terms of conventionality and sort of mainstream appeal, and to me that was conclave and a complete unknown right. And you have one who's been doing it for a long time and hasn't been nominated once. And then you have edward berger. Um, I think, looking at this list, what stands out is most of them are again writers, directors, and so what might have been edward berger in the butt here is not being the writer on this film, um.
Jules:But I also think it bit him in the butt that he just had the more conventional title going up against james mangled, who had yet to be nominated yeah, I think something that you and I have talked about in the past is IndieWire at some point puts out a list of what other filmmakers, other directors, their favorite films of the year, and it's always an interesting list to see how these filmmakers many of them who are in the independent space how they're reacting to the films and the films that they're responding to space, how they're reacting to the films and the films that they're responding to. And you and I have said that there's a name on there that keeps appearing and appearing and appearing. Watch out for that name. And that happened to us last year, in 2023.
Jules:The name Justine Triet kept on coming up and coming up and coming up, and you know, when it came down to predicting the final five for best director in 2023, I said, listen, greta gerwig doesn't need a third nomination. I think directors are going to think that's too much for her. You know, I'm sorry. A second nomination for director. I think director's going to think it's too much, too soon.
Jules:And there's another female filmmaker here, justine truée, for anatomy of a fall, which was probably a top five best picture movie, and so here's a name that keeps being mentioned by these filmmakers. Let's take it seriously and we got that prediction right but we didn't follow through with this year. We didn't follow through with that. The name Coralie Farge kept getting mentioned and mentioned and mentioned in that IndieWire survey of filmmakers' best films of the year and the filmmaking that they most responded to kept coming up and kept coming up and that should have been a sign that that director and this film was sort of catering or amassing a big following and a big passion base yeah, and it got her following yeah, and a big passion base.
Joseph:Yeah, and it got her in, yeah, and I think it's interesting again that the director list, I would argue if you agree with me has four of the possibly top five Best Picture nominees. Probably Coralie Fargeat for the Substance overtaking, edward Berger for Conclave Right, and that's the DGA 5 and the oscar five, but we had to tip our hat to movie you had an amazing year.
Joseph:But also they kind of played the black swan playbook to a t, getting its five nominations, netting best director, best picture, and going to a place that so few horror genre films are able to go to yeah, so definitely tip your hat to that, I mean yes, it's great to see Coralie Fargeau there.
Jules:I'm so happy for Mubi. We love Mubi and we love seeing them finally break it into this list. They acquire and curate some of the best films of the year and they did it on their terms.
Joseph:They're not like Netflix saying, well, what's going to get me there? They sort of said I'm going to buy the substance and I'm gonna get that there yeah, that was an.
Jules:It was an amazing thing to see. I personally have some issues with the substance as a film personally, but I'm so over the moon for movie absolutely and to sort of just you know, final, final word on the category.
Joseph:First time since 1997 we have a class of all first-time nominees for best director. Right, kind of exciting to see so sort of, as we had sort of an alluded to. Is the academy going to copy and paste the dgi5 list? No, they don't, but they got the sort of okay from the dga list to sort of say, okay, five newbies is okay, and I'm okay with that. I look at that list of dga nominees and I see that you have someone like james mangle just picking up their first nomination, now jacques arriard, uh, sean baker, and so yes, they're first time nominees but they've been working for upwards of 20 years so you sort of you know, feel less pressure to put a vet on there and so we did not have a vet on there first time since LA Confidential Titanic, the Sweet Hereafter, good Will Hunting and, I believe, the Full Monty. So congratulations to all the first time nominees here.
Jules:Yes, absolutely. And so our next category is Best Actress, and that was surprisingly slash. Not surprisingly, it ended up being the top five from gold derby, uh, with cynthia rivo making it in and fernanda torres and the presumed sort of you know locks of mikey madison, carlos sofia gascon and demi moore. Um, I will say that you and I predicted that cynthia rivo would not get nominated for Wicked and instead the veteran in that spot would be Marianne Jean-Baptiste, for Hard Truths, who was the trifecta winner this year, the critic's darling, an amazing, towering performance, an amazing film that got completely blank by the Oscars. Her snow was absolutely heartbreaking and she did not get in. And the veteran that did get in was Cynthia Erivo.
Jules:Um, and that was something that we had thought would not happen because it was a little. We thought it was too soon for her to get nominated right after Harriet in the same category of best actress. There's no category shift, it's only been five years. Are they ready to do that? Obviously they were, because wicked supremely I mean wicked, overperformed um, and she got in and it was the uh, gold derby five yeah, and I will say a couple of things that we did learn from this category.
Joseph:We had four newbies which we were skeptical about because of the whole trend that the officers have of nominating two veterans. I will say you did have at least one veteran here, so that holds true here, but you don't have two veterans. They made room for the extra newbie again. Maybe the idea that demi moore is just is a veteran actress just without a nomination yet, possibly that may be a factor, but you have four quote-unquote new faces here. Um, I think that we had been very skeptical about cynthia rivo because she had just been nominated. I think it's a five year cycle, which isn't impossible, but without a category shift, so she's been nominated now twice in the same category. It would be more easy. It would be easier for me to be more impassioned or happier for her nomination had she possibly been snubbed for Harriet, because it would have felt like an IOU as it is.
Joseph:I think it's a little bit quick for that nomination to happen, and certainly when you look at the other thing that we learned, which is that a Mike Lee performance, even when it comes from a former nominee in 1996, Marijan Baptiste, with the category shift is always going to be difficult for it to be nominated, I think in my opinion, you know, it's a sort of staple example as to why there should be some sort of jury intervention in any sort of voting process.
Joseph:The BAFTA used to have it, but I think the Academy Awards should have it now. I know BAFTA gave it up, but I think the Academy Awards should have it now. I know BAFTA gave it up, but it's just that idea that if you don't have sort of some factor sort of pushing a contender or a movie or a style of movie or a style of performance, if you don't have some kind of factor to sort of even the playing field that they're always going to get snubbed, right and, yes, sally hawkins, for happy-go-lucky happened to her, it happened to leslie manville.
Joseph:They would end up being nominated because the performances were so amazing that they are then going to be cast in blue jasmine and they're going to be cast in phantom thread. And marion jean-baptiste already has a fantastic career and she will continue to have great parts, but they'll hardly ever get nominated for these roles that do speak to a Paul Thomas Anderson, for example, because the actor's branch in and of itself. They're not going to turn on a Mike Lee film, and if they don't turn it on, they're not going to vote for it either. And so it's just that idea that we learned that you know Mike Lee point. You know he can have an actor deliver one of the best performances ever in a top 10 performance in our lifetime and it would probably still not be nominated by virtue of it being a mike lee movie.
Jules:And a mike lee performance, which you know doesn't pander to audiences, challenges, challenges his audiences and is not necessarily an easy sit and it's not necessarily an easy thing to sort of like right and right right and she was probably very severely affected by that, by being a character that was not easy to you know, like um, but it's undis. It's undeniably one of the greatest performances of the year. That is absolutely heartbreaking that she got snubbed and I completely agree with you on what you just said about druid categories. We've been feeling that way about the Academy for a very long time, some kind of factor or? Something.
Joseph:If you had reduced this list to 10 people and had put her on that 10, she may have had a better chance of getting in there.
Jules:100%. I agree, 100%, and it's very sad not to see her on that 10. She may have had a better chance of getting in there 100, but, um, I agree 100, and it's very sad not to see her on this list. Um, and it's I. I will say that you and I saw the likelihood of there not being two veterans coming by the fact that the sag had chosen only to nominate one veteran we had said, maybe that would have been right, when they could have chosen from several who were contending in very good films, and instead they nominated someone like Pamela Anderson for the Last Showgirl.
Jules:I think that was a clue that they were more than happy to give for newbie spots and one veteran. I just really thought it would be Mary Ange Batiste, and I'm really sad that it's not.
Joseph:I think the other factor we need to talk about is not only does Fernando Torres keep the real person sort of trend alive, which was necessary because veterans like Kate Winslet and Angelina Jolie were falling behind. But also we have a repetition where we have two foreign language performances nominated in lead actors.
Joseph:So we have talked about how this is a very special category, right. Hasn't happened since the 70s with Liv Ullman for Face to Face and the actress in Cuisin Cuisine. So it has happened twice in this category and now this is the third time for it to happen. And again, it's just that idea that you and I have that sometimes rules are different for different categories and so rules for actors don't necessarily apply to actor At least that's what we've seen. So not surprising to see both of those there, and even less surprising when you consider that we have both those films up for Best Picture in a Best Picture 10.
Jules:Right exactly, and so that was Best Actress. Best Actor ended up being the Gold Derby 5. And were the five that we predicted correctly? Adrian Brody, ray Fiennes, timothee Timothy Chalamet, coleman Domingo and Sebastian Stan?
Jules:Um, I think some people might've been surprised by Sebastian Stan getting an eye for the Apprentice. If you've seen that film, it's an incredible performance. I'm so glad that he got nominated. I think he's more than worthy to be in the top best performances by a male lead. He was absolutely fantastic, in my opinion, and as soon as Jeremy Strong got nominated for the SAG for the Apprentice, I knew that it was game over, because if Jeremy Strong can get an eye for the Apprentice, then voters are going to watch that movie. And if you're going to watch that movie, you are going to be impressed by the performances, especially Sebastian Stan's, who was incredible in that movie. You are going to be impressed by the performances, especially Sebastian Stan's, who is incredible in that movie, and so I really don't think there were any surprises here for me. Personally, I think it's. I lament that someone like Daniel Craig couldn't get in for his strong work in queer.
Jules:Obviously, we thought from the very beginning that that was a difficult movie for voters to like. We had several walkouts and the several screenings that we attended. For voters to like. We had several walkouts in the several screenings that we attended, so it's not a surprise that he missed out. Also, the BAFTA snub might have been foretelling as well. However, you know this will be to a larger issue that I have in the acting categories. I think it's somewhat unfair that certain. I think it's somewhat unfair that actors certain actors have to wait forever to get spotlighted by the Academy and to get nominated. Isabel Rossellini getting nominated or her first nomination in her mid-70s.
Joseph:That's ridiculous.
Jules:Absolutely ridiculous. And Daniel Craig still can't get nominated. Maybe he'll get nominated in his 70s also, exactly, and certain other contenders can get nominated right away.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And I find that very, I just find that really unfair. It's disappointing. I do feel like, don't get me wrong, it should be about the work, but oftentimes it's not about the work.
Joseph:It's not about the work. Come on.
Jules:It's about being in the right movie and being promoted by the right people, and that's how that kind of discrepancy can happen, where someone is just starting an acting career and gets nominated or has very few film credits or has much less film credits than someone else who also delivered strong work. But they miss out and they do get in.
Joseph:Yeah, we can't snub marion jean-baptiste and then say that it's purely about the work. No, it you know. There's a game here. It's a.
Jules:There's a popularity contest going on here, um right and so you know, that's why I really feel like, especially in the acting categories, they would benefit from and again going off what you were saying earlier, they would benefit from having some kind of more juried selection, I think, in terms of, you know, spotlighting people, that I think is only fair to spotlight, especially if you're going to consider, like we're going to get to supporting actors. But it's weird to see a category where Isabella Rossellini gets her first nomination at 70-something and Ariana Grande is getting her first nomination for her first movie, or Monica Barber.
Jules:Or Monica Barber with less credits, right, but it's just weird. You're seeing it there play out in that category. Or Monica Barber, with, you know, less credits, right, but it's just weird, you know, it's just weird, you know, and you're seeing it there play out in that category. That's strange, yeah, and that doesn't seem fair to me personally.
Joseph:No, I get it and I completely agree and it's a shame. I think that I had gone and tipped that the Apprentice was going to get in after that BAFTA long list mention for best picture and again it just goes in my in my mind to reaffirm the idea of I'm still here 13 million Brazilian dollars, best picture nominee the Apprentice. 13 million international dollars in its global run.
Jules:You know that's not including the US and then you get acting nominees, it just goes to show you how important it is to have that international support.
Joseph:not surprised by his nomination there, and we had talked about the other sort of silent factor here, which is the A24 three nominee factor.
Jules:That's just that proved to be right. That proved to be right, exactly.
Joseph:You know, there's just no reason to be nominating A24 Three times, three times for three different movies in the same acting category.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:Especially not when some of its contenders are running Right. The work was good enough. Luca had been there before in terms of being recognized by the academy. He had two great movies. Um, I understand it was racy, but I thought that maybe, just maybe, with that sag nomination he could edge out coman domingo right with a back-to-back nomination for for a performance that he wasn't going to win for.
Joseph:And we had thought for a long time that if coman domingo got, it was with his movie, and his movie was doing so poorly after the producer's guilt snub and the SAG ensemble snub. So I was starting to get around to the idea that maybe Daniel Craig could sort of leapfrog him and he could be the final A24 spot.
Jules:I do think that it would have happened that way had it not been queer, and had it been a different movie.
Jules:Right way, had it not been queer and had it been a different movie, right, maybe it was just too unlikable. Yeah, um, you know, I certainly like that movie very much, but it's certainly not going to be, uh, the academy's cup of tea, and so I think it would have happened as you're saying colman domingo would have been the one that would have been out right had the film been more, you know, more played, played, more to the Academy.
Joseph:Yeah, but the Academy is not going to like William S Burroughs movies. That trend continues Again, even if it sweeps Best Picture maybe, if it was, it would be perfect if it was a movie that swept Best Picture based on William S Burroughs, directed by Mike Lee, because then you know it's not going to get nominated for any Oscars, right? And then the other thing, that sort of again. I would be happier about the Coleman Domingo nomination, except that he was just there last year by himself and he didn't have to be there.
Joseph:You know he took out, you know a great Leo performance for Kills of the Flower Moon, but maybe Leo didn't have to be there for once upon time in hollywood.
Jules:I guess you could argue that, oh no, yeah, but um, the other thing about coleman is that I mean he has the michael jackson movie coming out later this year.
Joseph:I think he's playing his father. So I I I wonder how we're not going to nominate him for that. And so we're going to nominate him three times in a row. Maybe that the argument here is to finally give him the win this year, but it just seems to me like too many nominations all at once. And again. Isabella rossellini is just being nominated now, at 70 yeah right um, because people didn't get blue velvet in 1986, right um.
Joseph:So that was a little, a little bit weird for me to see, but I guess at the end we're not too surprised that daniel craig didn't get in there.
Jules:It's just it's and again, just the map of it all. You know how certain people get in and certain people don't, and sort of. You know the unfairness that can sort of play out before us. You know, it's just something that always rubs me the wrong way Right.
Joseph:At least Sebastian Stan did get nominated, though we were right about that.
Jules:I'm very happy about that. He did not cancel himself out. Yes, I'm very happy about that and I think again, a very, very, very deserved nomination in my opinion. And so, branching off of that supporting actress, um, we predicted zoe zaldana, isabella rossellini felicity, jones. That, to us, in our opinion, was absolutely the locks. Some people some people were some people were crazy and thinking that felicity jones was not going to rocker.
Jules:I have no idea what they were thinking. That is a great performance by Felicity Jones. She's completing a 10 year cycle We've talked about in previous episodes. She's in a best picture for a runner the materials there so that's a no brainer.
Joseph:Some people were drinking the Kool-Aid.
Jules:The category needs a veteran and people were doing a last minute switch to Jamie Lee Curtis, come on. That was not going to happen. It's too soon. After everything, everyone wants a category that she won.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:Um, and I just don't think that she has enough in that movie to get nominated period no, Um, and so I I thought people were just ridiculous and thinking of Felicity Jones. Snub.
Joseph:Then Ann Thompson. Ann Thompson put Jamie Lee Curtis in at the end.
Jules:I think she did, I don't know. I think she still had Felicity Jones, though I'm not sure, but anyway, so we had those three. The whole afterglow momentum Come on. Variety wrote articles about it, clayton Davis.
Joseph:Look, it was just too much.
Jules:Way too much we had argued again.
Joseph:we were fortunate enough to watch a little bit early. We had argued that Felicity Jones can be snubbed from every award if you want, but if you finish watching that movie and you like that movie she's going to be nominated. Yes, you know maybe if Felicity Jones' role in my opinion again was done by Monica Barbaro, again as her second or third film or her second or third major film.
Jules:Possibly. Maybe she would have been snubbed, but Felicity Jones is a previous nominee. Yeah.
Joseph:Right, she's a beloved by the British Academy. She got nominated at the British Academy. If you watch the film, you're going to nominate her, yeah absolutely, and it's also a category shift. Yeah, category shift.
Jules:And so those were, in our opinion, the three locks, and it was, um, daniel deadweller who got the sag nomination. Yes, she missed the golden globe and and, yes, she missed the bafta, but she had already gotten the bafta nomination, uh, for till, so possibly some of that could have played out there too soon to nominate her again. She was so, yeah, uh, exactly, um, and we also had, uh, ariana grande, obviously for wicked, and we had monica barbro, who got a last minute, late surge with that sag nomination which we had called.
Joseph:We always talked about freaking, started screening that well, we'll get back to that.
Jules:And then we had, uh, a passionate sort of base for margaret quality, the substance. We really felt that those last two spots were between those four women and we ended up saying that the Daniel Deadweiler snub for Till was going to have a factor here and that she was going to get an eye for the piano lesson, and we were going to go with our gut that this category is missing a real life figure.
Joseph:Which we called for a while now.
Jules:On top of that, it's a real life figure, which we called for a while now. On top of that, it's a real life figure in a movie that is being watched at the right time a complete unknown um the bob dylan film and the sag nomination sort of cemented our and then when she got that saga nomination, I thought it's over, she's going to get nominated yeah again.
Jules:This category needs a real person, uh, or should at least have a real person. She's in a perfect movie to do it. She's playing Joan Baez. The nomination is as much for her as it's nominating the iconic figure of Joan.
Joseph:Baez, oh, certainly.
Jules:Which they love to do that when they can, and so, for me, monica Barber was a no-brainer as well. And then we hedged our bets on Daniela Deadweiler. Obviously, we were wrong and Wicked overperformed, and Ariana Grande landed her first nomination for what's arguably her first film.
Joseph:I mean, I think it is her first film. I'm not counting that, Don't Look Up as her first film.
Jules:I mean if you don't count that, then it's absolutely her first film. I really didn't think that was going to happen, and we talked about the unlikelihood, uh, or how unlikely it was to have two musical performances from two different musicals, not in the same category. It's been a while it happened.
Joseph:The stat happened, yeah, the stat happened yeah um it has I think the last time was in the 80s, 1983 I believe again charles durning and robert preston right, neither for best picture movies, both on their first nomination, but both two veteran actors, char Charles Durning and Robert Preston, exactly.
Jules:And so that ended up happening again. It's been a while. Interestingly enough, someone like Selena Gomez, who was in the preferred film for Amelia Perez, landing 13 nominations, still could not get nominated, and they chose Ariana Grande instead.
Joseph:Which is weird, which is just weird it is pretty weird, considering again that Selena Gomez has the show? Has worked with Jarmusch, has worked with Corinne. Yeah, I guess it just shows.
Jules:I guess it just goes to show you that you know that performance. Just wasn't speaking to voters, right?
Joseph:And then I think it also goes to show you in terms of stats that survived. You know, no SAG double nominee in the same movie, no Oscar double nominee in the same movie.
Jules:Yes, you know, I mean, I think, jesse.
Joseph:Clemens broke that trend for Power of the Dog. But the safest thing to say is you know, selena Gomez's chances were obviously DOA when she got snubbed at that SAG.
Jules:Right, exactly, exactly. And so it's also surprising because the movie did well, the substance that Margaret Qualley couldn't land the nomination, considering that she has, I think, in our opinion, a more advanced career than Monica Barber for Complete Unknown, certainly Ariana Grande for Wicked. And that movie did well and it got an eye for Best Picture and it got an eye for best director and still couldn't get market quality for best supporting actress. You know, I find that interesting. I thought that I I didn't think she would get nominated because I thought the sag miss was indicative but substantial, exactly. But I didn't think that it would get an eye for best director either.
Joseph:right, and it did so we had talked about the nepo so we had talked about the NEPO factor. We had talked about the SAG saying there's only room for one NEPO baby and that's. Jamie Lee Curtis, exactly, and BAFTA said there's room for two, even though it wasn't Margaret Qualley. There's room for two. We can put Rossellini and Curtis in there, but there's six spots. And so here we go down to five spots. There was really only room for one N Nepo baby Right.
Jules:And I think that's something to really look at as something that happened here in this category with Isabel Rossellini and Margaret Qualley. I think they wanted to include one Nepo baby and Isabel Rossellini it's a fucking crime that she hasn't been nominated yet, and so obviously she was going to win that battle. But it's still interesting because the Substance did do well, just not for Margaret Qualley, and Margaret Qualley is obviously going to get nominated sooner rather than later. However, still you know.
Joseph:Surprising not to see her here. She's an Emmy nominee already. Multiple Emmy nominations.
Jules:Exactly.
Joseph:She's been to Cannes. She's been to Cannes a couple of times now.
Jules:Exactly, and her career is more advanced than Monica Barbera or Ariana Grande.
Joseph:Right, and they landed nominations before her, and she had a lot of films this year too.
Jules:Exactly, and I think it's also disappointing to not see. I just don't think enough people appreciated Elle Fanning's work in A Complete Unknown. I think she's wonderful in that movie. I would have loved to have seen some more love for her. Monica Barbaro ended up getting a nomination before her and I think Al Fanning has had a longer career, so it's also disappointing to see. Again back to what I was saying certain people get nominated before others. That being said, as we said, monica Barbaro, who's also really great in her film she's really lovely in her film really benefited from playing Joan Baez.
Joseph:Whereas. Al Fanning had a version of a real, More iconic yeah.
Jules:Exactly, but she was playing still a version of a real-life character, but not exactly the real-life character, so that's something that really went to Monica Barbaro's Advantage Advantage. I would have loved for both of them to have been nominated.
Joseph:Yeah, but again, the no sag double, double nominee is is sort of a killer for that sort of campaign. I'll also say that you know another stat that sort of fell this year in terms of it being a bad predictor of how things are going to go, was that l fanning win at the national board of review right, which we thought you know was interesting when we saw it. You know that they chose l fanning over other contenders or the more prominent contenders. But now that you sort of see that Monica Barbera got nominated, it's sort of weird that they didn't give that win to Monica Barbera instead of Al Fanning. Again, we love them both. They were both fantastic in their films. And then you know the Daniel Deadweiler thing I think is super significant. I mean, daniel Deadweiler now joins and again she was running by herself, again as a solo nominee that hurt a lot.
Joseph:Which, again, if you're out there and you're sort of launching any sort of campaign, whoever the hell you are a studio distributor, a producer, whatever do not campaign your prospective nominee by themselves, because you are not going to be nominated.
Jules:You get nominated? Well, you can be nominated, but it's an uphill battle.
Joseph:I mean I hope you touch on this later because we this is a very important factor that sort of I I'm not sure I think they're going to become rarer species of people who get in by themselves and hope you touch on this after we're done talking about the all the acting categories.
Joseph:But she was running by herself again, which was a huge detriment. Obviously, I think what may be the deciding factor there, and netflix obviously not have the energy, the ability to get multiple people into this category. They just got their one, amelia Paris girl, not even two Amelia Paris girls. But Daniel Deadweather now joins a select group of individuals who will have two Screen Actors Guild nominations for acting and not one single Oscar nomination.
Joseph:So, she's certainly on that sort of trajectory where they're going to nominate her so far down the line from when she should have been nominated that it's going to be a shame.
Jules:Yeah, I 100% agree. I think it's sad not to see her on this list and, again, it's weird that other people are on this list for some of their first work.
Joseph:And I mean, and Coleman Domingo gets to be nominated back to back and Daniel Deadweather still hasn't been able to muster one nomination in either category.
Jules:Right, and so, yeah, Well, we got four right in that category because we did correctly predict Monica Barbaro. But we really missed the boat on Wicked and Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo and Wicked as a whole.
Joseph:But actually that's really important to mention is that we had for a long time pegged Ariana Grande to be very vulnerable here because of the stat that you do not get nominated for acting for a musical.
Jules:Well, the stat is that the stat that we looked at was actually that if you're a musician who's transitioning into film, you don't get nominated for your category by yourself above the line. So you should be getting nominated alongside a director nomination or a screenplay nomination or a fellow actor being nominated, and by the end, I think a lot of people were predicting that Cynthia Erivo wasn't going to get nominated and that Ariana Grande would get nominated by herself in the above the line categories.
Joseph:Which is what we thought.
Jules:We thought it was probably Mary Ann Jean-Baptiste, exactly, and so that always smelled to us as very unlikely because, again, most musicians get in for their respective categories and the acting categories alongside another. Above the line nomination that doesn't include best picture, right, and that did happen because ariana grande did manage to get nominated but cynthia revo got nominated as well right, but she did not get nominated by herself exactly. I think it's important to note.
Joseph:So, if you're a, musician and you want to get in. You definitely want to get in, either with your co star or your director or your writer, exactly, um, and some people were maybe pegging wicked for a writing nomination at some point too. So I think that cynthia revo's nominations or your director or your writer, exactly and some people were maybe pegging Wicked for a writing nomination at some point too so I think that Cynthia Erivo's nominations really unlocked the nomination for Ariana Grande 100%, I think.
Jules:if Cynthia Erivo doesn't get in, I don't think that Ariana Grande would have gotten in by herself.
Joseph:History hasn't shown that Exactly.
Jules:And so Cynthia getting in greatly. I liked the word you used, unlocked. I think that became extremely plausible as soon as she got that nomination. Supporting actor went five for five with the SAG. We predicted the five of the SAG. I think this yes. Guy Pearce missed the SAG for Jonathan Bailey for Wicked, but Guy Pearce? The glaring snub of Guy Pearce was not going to happen at the Oscars. Guy Pearce, one of our greatest actors, one of my favorite actors Again a crime that this is his first nomination.
Joseph:An Absolute Crime After All the Confidential and Memento.
Jules:Like I said, just the map of the whole thing. Certain people are enjoying their first nomination after a storied career, and then other actors are getting in with lesser career.
Jules:I mean you know less film credits and so that that just doesn't sit right with me. But I'm very happy for Guy Pearce. I'm very happy he got nominated Finally again, long time coming. He's wonderful on the Buddha list and again, it's just mind-boggling that he's never been nominated before. But anyway, I think the five that we predicted are the five that were on Gold Derby Edward Norton, kieran Culkin, guy Pearce, yura Borisov and Jeremy Strong. I thought this was one of the easier categories to predict. All of these candidates made perfect sense. As soon as Clarence Macklin missed the SAG, which I was not expecting, and someone like Yura Borisov managed to get the SAG nomination and the BAFTA nomination, I thought, well, that's it. Those are the five. I thought the list was kind of weird to have Yura Borisov and Clarence Macklin, two relatively unknown actors to the actors branch, both getting nominated at the same time.
Jules:But Yura Borisov has a scene-stealing part in Onora and that greatly helped him and he actually did terrific, because you got an eye for everything that he needed to get an eye for Absolutely, and that SAG nomination really helped Jeremy strong and we had at one point been trepidatious about Kieran Culkin and Jeremy strong being nominated in succession because of the succession connection. So it's kind of weird to see them in the same category so soon after succession. But it happened again as soon as Jeremy strong got that SAG nomination I thought it was, you know, absolutely sealed. He would get in alongside Sebastian Stan Again. He's great in the Apprentice, so it makes absolute sense. If you've seen the movie, I will say that and we can go into this later when we review everything we've talked about. I will say that the Jeremy Strong alongside the Kieran Culkin nomination I think hurts Kieran Culkin.
Jules:I agree and I think right, and so I think that just adds further fuel to this idea that I think Kieran Culkin is not going to win for a real pain and that it will be somebody else.
Joseph:It could be his Fox Searchlight brother Edward.
Jules:Norton.
Joseph:You had mentioned that, but I'll go ahead and say you gotta watch out for Guy Pearce you gotta watch out for Guy Pearce because he has enough in that movie to win again LA Confidential Memento. He's been doing it for quite a while. Congratulations to Yura.
Jules:I doubted him all year, every time you brought him up.
Joseph:I said no, golden Globe nomination, no, sag nomination no yes after nomination I don't think so. I doubted him all year, right, I love that he's included here. I think that's great, but it you know what it? It kindles a little thought in my mind. You know why does yura get to be nominated before dahlia delion? I thought the dahlia delion factor would would kill europe.
Jules:Obviously the sag nomination went up, went a big way to sort of solidifying him there's. That's a big difference.
Joseph:But you know it's interesting to think about. You know these sort of arthouse movies or you know international actors or maybe these arthouse movies that have an international bend as well because they did premiere at Cannes. You know they don't typically get many of their actors in. Mikey was able to get in. I didn't think that Yura was going to be able to get in there too. Again, neon getting six nominations for the first time since Parasite how many nominations did they walk out in acting for Parasite Zero? And the supporting actor, sung Kang-ho, has been doing it forever. He still couldn't get nominated. So I'm surprised by Yura. I'm happy for him. I doubted him all year. It sort of gets me thinking what does the next Dolly DeLeon have to do to get nominated? And it certainly helps and I hope we talk about this after this category having your partner there, right, yes, so you know Mikey being there really helps, you know.
Jules:Yura show up 100%. I'm very happy to see him here. We fell in love with yura borosov in compartment number six of the beautiful film. He's a very gifted actor and so it's just nice to see him sort of have this uh, breakthrough moment um. And that concludes our sort of recap of the acting categories.
Joseph:Right, um, but before we finish it, I will say that some larger trends here in acting.
Jules:I will say. Something that really stood out to us was that this is the first year since 2013, I believe that there isn't one nominee included in these acting categories. 20 spots, right in 20 spots. That is the film's only nomination. So every year, routinely, you'll see an actor or two or three or tops four will get nominated and be the film's only acting nomination and oftentimes the film's only nomination period. The Ellen.
Joseph:Burstyn Wrecking for a Dream nomination. Who got it last year? Last?
Jules:year was Daniel Brooks for the Color Purple, the Daniel Brooks Color Purple, and Coleman Domingo for Rustin. Coleman Domingo for Rustin, exactly, but sort of you'll tend to see usually at least one, sometimes as many as what as four. So in 2021, no, I'm sorry, 2022, we had four we had Brian Tyree Henry, we had Andrea Risborough, we had Anna D'Armas and we had Paul Meskel.
Joseph:After Sun.
Jules:That was four. They usually don't do more than four. They might have you know much earlier in their history. They usually do tops four, at least one. The last time that there were absolutely zero nominees included in the acting categories that were the film's only nomination there were zero was 2013. There were no actors in any category that were the film's only nomination. That was the year of American Hustle and Gravity and Toys to Slay and Blue Jasmine, nebraska. Nebraska, the Wolf of Wall Street, captain Phillips.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:So you know.
Joseph:It's interesting to see as sort of you know, is that a trend that we're going to see next year?
Jules:Could be interesting to think about that if that ended up helping there not be a surprise low nomination for someone like Daniel Dudweiler or a surprise low nomination for someone like Daniel Craig, because you know it was easier to sort of have a group mentality, a group think as to. You know, these are the top films and we're going to get the acting nominations from these top films. I don't know if that could have played a part. Possibly it might have played a part. It's possible.
Joseph:I think we have to keep our eyes open for this year coming up. I think I would also like to touch upon the idea that, again among the acting categories, how many of these performances are getting in without a partner?
Joseph:Right, so if you look at the supporting half of this list, those 10 spots, I believe it's only Kieran Culkin, right, the Golden Globe winner for Real Pain, that's getting in, without his screen partner Jesse Eisenberg, right. And if you look at the upper half of this list, in the leading category, I believe you have Komen.
Jules:Domingo for Sixing.
Joseph:Fernando Torres I'm Still here, and Demi Moore for the Substance, and that's it those three. So again, if you're campaigning for any of these spots, you have to try to get your partner in as well as yourself.
Joseph:It pays dividends, to campaign multiple people for the same movie, right? And I think the last thing I'd like to touch upon, just because it's really interesting to think about, is we had developed this sort of theory and idea that, nomination-wise for acting, the Academy will mimic the Screen Actors Guild Award in terms of new nominees that they'll let in, new actors that they'll let in, right. How did that turn out, this so?
Jules:you know, usually the academy will you know. You know, the sags are probably the best precursor to look at when you're thinking about the acting nominations for the Academy. They replicate many of them and so, in terms of the veterans that the SAG nominates, you know, if the SAG nominates, like they did this year, seven veterans, you can expect the Oscars to either match that number or, more often than not, have one or two less than that. You shouldn't see, for example, the SAG having included eight veterans in their 20 spots and then have the officers include 10. That doesn't happen. They like to include new people and oftentimes they'll do one or two less than whatever the number of veterans that the SAG committee nominated. So include even more new people.
Jules:You know exactly. So this year the SAG had seven veterans, and, if I'm not mistaken, there were seven veterans that got nominated this year as well.
Joseph:At the Academy. Yes, okay. So then they sort of more or less matched. They sort of equaled it Exactly. Okay, then they sort of more or less matched. They sort of equaled it Exactly.
Jules:Okay, and even a year like 2022, when Best Actor didn't have a veteran and Paul Meskel got in the SAG category for Best Actor didn't have a veteran either. Yeah, and that was a clue that whoever got that last spot for Best Actor was not going to be a veteran.
Joseph:And that's sort of what you use for Actress this year, right? When you saw that, pamela Anderson was able to be nominated. Over Andrea Jolie and Kate Winslet and Saoirse Ronan Right, it sort of let you know that the door is open for Fernanda Torres to be another newbie this year, but also still, you know.
Jules:you know, even if the Paul Meskel thing does happen, it's not often.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And they like to include veterans when they can, at least one. That's why you needed a veteran and supporting actress at least one. You got one in phyllis jones. You needed one supporting actor at least one. You got one in edward norton. And you needed one an actress at least one. You got one in cynthia revo. And then, best actor, you got four.
Joseph:Yeah, uh including one back to back without a best Picture nomination, exactly For either.
Jules:And so you know you should at least count that. You know every category is going to at least have one veteran, if they can. A very extreme circumstance like 2022, it can happen not often.
Joseph:Yeah, you sort of have to push them into that corner where like, the only veteran I can nominate is Tom Hanks for A man Called Otto or Tom Cruise for Top Gun Maverick, and so I'm left with nothing but bad choices or choices that I'm not thrilled with, right. So I'll go out of my way and look for that Exactly First time nominee.
Jules:Exactly, and so those were the acting nominees for the screenplay category. Those were actually two categories we did well in. We got five out of five right in adapted screenplay, which I believe were the gold derby five, conclave, emilia paris sing, sing a complete unknown, and nickel boys um, and then an original screenplay. The four that were easy to predict were a nora a real pain the buddha list and the substance. That last spot had a few people confused, but you and I felt pretty good about september 5 landing in somewhere, and at that point- you thought it was a double.
Joseph:You thought it would be screenplay and picture.
Jules:Yes, I did, but we did say how a film that gets a PGA nomination for best picture-.
Joseph:We did say that, yeah, and a Golden.
Jules:Globe nomination for best picture has to land at least somewhere.
Joseph:Should not be shut out it should not be shut out.
Jules:Yeah, I think we weren't able to find any film that was completely shut out and you had an open space in screenplay which technically should have gone to a veteran, but it didn't seem like any veterans were sort of getting a passionate following. Mike Lee wasn't doing too well with Heart Truth.
Joseph:Even though he had the NBR win, which is sometimes pretty prophetic Sometimes sometimes.
Jules:Jason Reimann's film premiered at Telluride to enthusiastic response.
Joseph:And he had to be nominated and you know it was Saturday Night Live, so you'd think that a lot of writers would sort of sympathize with that topic and be excited about it. And then Civil War.
Jules:Civil War Gun Iron for the Guild. There weren't a lot of options, and none of the options that there were were making any headway right. So that left an open spot, right. And in the event of an open spot, why not just nominate september 5, right?
Joseph:um, even though it comes at the expense of what some people were thinking was gonna have, that last minute push right and challengers right right.
Jules:But having seen, you know, obviously, if you see, like we said, if you've seen september 5, it's the kind of film that you can see writers responding to and as long as you put in the movie, you know it's a strong movie and you're going to respond to it. So if you can find a space for it at the towards the top of your ballot, I feel that that was likely and luckily enough, the writers branch enough of them saw it to nominate it, I mean yeah, I was going to say if we, if we jump back to adapted screenplay.
Joseph:It was just another bad day for dune 2. Denis venu did not score that screenplay nomination this time. Um, so no directing and no writing. But you know, congratulations to nickel boys to be nominated again. We were very skeptical that writers were going to respond to the film because of the very nature that it's sort of uh expressed in or presented in. Glad to see it there. But Emilia Perez right, first musical there since Chicago in Adapted and since La La Land in original. But Damien Chazelle and Bill Condon were both previous nominees.
Joseph:So, Jacques Ariard, on one of his first nominations, is able to be nominated here for Emilia Perez. We should also note that we forgot to mention, but in Best Picture I think we're seeing Wicked and Emilia Perez there two musicals in Best Picture for the first time since, I believe, oliver and Funny Girl in the 60s, in the late 60s, and that was only five spots, but with ten spots we have two musicals this year too. So congratulations to another musical making into adapted screenplay. I think it's- Does it happen?
Joseph:often Does not happen often. I think it's a sign of strength, but I also think it's a sign of I mean, I'm going to go ahead and say that Netflix has enough of a hand in the voter's pocket, because Netflix gets a lot of questionable nominations, because Netflix gets a lot of questionable nominations, but we also had said that that the Netflix film gets the Netflix film, the film that they're pushing hardest for Best Picture.
Jules:it tends to get a screenplay nomination.
Joseph:But we also got it Well. Has Netflix ever campaigned a musical for screenplay, which don't tend to do that well? Here, exactly, and so the stat that Netflix will get its Best Picture nominee into screenplay surpasses the idea that musicals have a tough time here.
Jules:Well, you know, and in all fairness, they had an easier time earlier on in the history of the Academy. They've been having a hard time, you know, as of late for a while.
Jules:Yeah, that's why you see something like West Side story getting snubbed yeah uh, as a musical and um, several other examples we've pointed out, um, so those are the screenplay categories for best film editing. We predicted anora, a complete unknown conclave, dune part two and amelia, paris, um, and we got a complete unknown wrong and, you know, frustratingly so, we got Dune part two wrong again, dune really after our, our predictions quite a bit, because we put it for quite a bit of text Um, and it got some very notable snubs, as we said. So we got Dune part two wrong and a complete unknown wrong and instead they nominated the Brutalist, which was a surprise and a huge surprise.
Joseph:In Wicked, I think, the Brutalist is the bigger surprise here because from the Guild and from BAFTA, I think even the BAFTA long list I don't think the Brutalist made it?
Jules:Yeah, I think it did. I don't think that it did.
Joseph:I have to check that, but I'm pretty sure we had written it off completely because it was just so ignored in this category and the idea that you know an editor is going to watch this film and wonder, well, where the hell is the editing if you've included all three and a half hours of this film? Obviously that didn't happen.
Jules:Well, again, because we had that sort of mentality, that way of thinking, we anticipated a snub at the editors and we weren't surprised by that. We just thought it would carry over into the Academy and it didn't Right.
Joseph:And so I was surprised to see it there. I had toyed with the idea. I presented the idea that the last time Dune was up for editing, where it won, it was up against the editor of Wicked for Tick, Tick Boom. And so that was his first nomination. I had wondered if he can get back-to-back nominations. He doesn't have a project in between a film project, and so really his last two film projects have been nominated for film editing.
Joseph:I thought it might have been too soon and that it might have been a turnoff for editors to sort of say I don't want to see another Dune versus musical in the same category. Obviously, that was not the case. They were more than happy to leave off Joe Walker for Dune 2 and nominate the editor of Wicked again consecutively.
Jules:Right, and I personally found it very surprising that they didn't include A Complete Unknown, because I considered A Complete Unknown to be a top five movie and usually you know if you're a top five movie, you at least land a nomination in film editing. It did not get nominated here and that was surprising to me. I think it says something that it didn't get nominated here. It does, and I think it says something that Wicked, a film like Wicked, got nominated instead. Yeah, I think it does.
Joseph:And I think it also says something about Onora and the Brutalist, right? I don't think the Brutalist was supposed to be there, and I think there was an argument that Sean baker didn't need so many nominations at once. And yet here he is. He got all the nominations at once, and so if you're going to look at best film, editing to sort of guide you as to who's going to win best picture, I think it's great to see the buddha list and anora here if that's who you're pulling for, yeah, I 100 agree.
Jules:Um, but again, I was very surprised by the inclusion of both the buddha list and wicked. We got those two wrong yeah um, I think very few people.
Joseph:I think had wicked in best film editing, but the buddha list was in the gold derby people were pretty bullish on it, but I thought it was sort of like the way, the way people were bullish on jomo frey getting in for his wonderful work on nickel boys where I thought that that's never going to happen 100%, and so for best cinematography going off of that, we predicted the Brutalist.
Jules:not difficult to predict Conclave Dune, part 2, maria and Nosferatu. We were right on Maria. If Ed Lockman is going to get an eye for the ASC, he's going to get an Oscar nomination.
Joseph:If Ed gets in with his guild, ed gets in and he absolutely did.
Jules:I think some people were surprised by that, but we weren't. Um, I was really surprised that conclave did not get an eye for cinematography. Um, I, I do think the cinematography is strong and conclave I just I really thought, I really thought that was a nomination, that was going to happen. But, like like I said earlier in this episode, I always felt iffy about not including Amelia Perez because, even though it didn't get nominated for the ASC, it was getting nominated in all these other important areas and all the important organizations and, I believe, netflix. They're the same with screenplay. Their films tend to do well in cinematography too. Their Best Picture front runner tends to do well in Best Cinematography.
Joseph:Oh yeah, that's the problem. That's that, in my opinion, is, is again the hand in the pocket where, like any film of Netflix's that's up for Best Picture, has to be nominated for screenplay, even if it's a musical, and it has to be nominated for cinematography, even if we're going to nominate Netflix for another film, right, and the cinematographer is not very well known and the cinematography again, it could not get into, I believe, eight guild spots.
Jules:Yeah.
Joseph:So it ran at the very best ninth at the American.
Jules:I think there were seven spots.
Joseph:Seven. Okay, Well, it ran at the very best eight. Right, you know at the American Cinematographers Guild. So you know at the American Cinematographers Guild. So I do think that's a little bit of the hand in the pocket.
Jules:Yeah, I mean, I really felt this inclination for a very long time that Emilia Perez was going to do well in cinematography, based on that history of Netflix, and that you know they were going to go goo-goo-gaga over Emilia Perez, which they did. That's somewhere that it would land, but I didn't know who to take out for it. Um, and probably most people would have thought, take out maria. But I really felt that you know, we were right on with our, with our stat that if ed lockman's going to get in, uh, with his guilt, he's going to get in here. I would not have thought that it would have gotten in over conclave I was really surprised not to see Conclave here.
Joseph:I think Stéphane Fontaine, I think again. Ironically, he's the go-to DP for Jacques Ariad Jacques. Ariad gets this new DP in. By the way, if you're not a fan of Emilia Perez's cinematography I certainly was not you should revisit the work of Jacques Ariad's previous film. Paris 13th District with this same cinematographer. Much better work Could have been nominated for that one instead. Even at the Guild it was not. But so you have two newbies. Stéphane Fontaine finally broke through with the American Cinematographers Guild. Some people argue that he should have been there for Jackie.
Joseph:I thought he did a fantastic job there too, Finally broke through, but it just was not enough. I think a factor here might be something that we can sort of see happening other years and maybe we had alluded to among ourselves is the idea that because all choir in the western front ends up winning this category right even without a guild nomination, that there may be some pushback or hesitancy, or, you know, some people who didn't want to go ahead and give edward berger another cinematography nomination, even if they're two different cinematographers, even if they're two different cinematographers, um, but you know he did break through stefan with uh the guild, so I think that's a good sign.
Joseph:Again, the irony to not see him here and jacquard yards uh dp that he's been working with recently did get in um kind of funny. Um. I do think it's also important to mention ed lockman, I think first cinematographer since roger deakins and emmanuel in 2014 for Unbroken and Birdman, to repeat in 2015, I believe, with Sicario and the Revenant. So Ed Lachman, first DP to go back-to-back, remember, he sort of maybe stole a nomination last year, I'm sorry, 2023 with El Conde for another Pablo film. So certainly cinematographers starting to have that respect for Pablo Larraín films here and certainly the master at Lachman.
Jules:Yes, and so that was cinematography. For production design, we actually got the five that were right the Boudalas Conclave, Doom Part II, Nosferatu and Wicked no surprises there. We thought the spoiler could be a complete unknown, but we liked its chances more in costume design. We'll get to that in a minute the curse of the contemporary right.
Jules:What did not did not work against conclave, conclave was able to beat that a couple of times, I think right and so, um, I think that might have been the gold derby five, I'm not sure, but regardless we got the, the five that made it to the oscars. And costume design this was a very strange category for me, um, because, okay, so we predicted a complete unknown. Which got in conclave? Which got in dune part two, which did not get in Nosferatu and wicked, which did? And instead of dune part two, they nominated gladiator two, and you and I were, I were very, I think, adamant that it would knock an eye for costume design, because she was just nominated last year for napoleon and this ended up being gladiator 2's only nomination, uh, which again hurt our predictions, because we had pegged it for at least two more. Um, so glad, you're too severely underperformed. Um, and it landed the surprise, uh, costume nomination. Not because you know, I can see them responding to the work and obviously it's very showy work.
Joseph:So I understand the nomination, but I really didn't think that she would be nominated so soon after napoleon the irony that this costume designer for a large part of her career goes ignored after right being nominated and, I believe, winning for gladiator one maybe breaking through last year for napoleon and able to get consecutive nominations now and to be the only nomination for gladiator 2, is something that could only be written by the movie gods but maybe that, maybe that's something that we should have paid more attention to.
Jules:She got nominated for the first gladiator, and so the chances of her repping a sequel, you know, and her getting nominated for that sequel, were maybe stronger than we had thought.
Joseph:I just don't know how you're supposed to play the card, that that's your mentality, and not that Arthur Max is going to get in for production design when he's so beloved there, or that Ridley Scott is going to be able by the virtue of being a Ridley Scott film, he's going to be able to survive the visual effects long list and make it into that final five nominees. So it's a very tough thing to call that the gladiator nomination. If you only had one nomination to give, it would be for costume design. For this costume designer right um, congratulations to her.
Joseph:Um, I did think actually a complete unknown might factor into production design. We're not surprised again to see arian phillips here nominated, because we called the the bath to bounce back in our costume design breakdown before nominations.
Joseph:So not surprising to see that. And we have our crossover with nas for all too wicked and conclave in production design again conclave, able to sort of be the curse of the contemporary film, and I will say that maybe the sleeper here that maybe could have tipped you off into gladiator 2 for costume design, the idea that you and I had, which is that you gotta have a couple of period pieces in this category, and you had nosferatu and that's her first nomination. Congratulations to her too. Um, oh yes, but other than that you really had a fantasy film, a contemporary film, and the other period film wasn't even nominated from the guild, right, and so I think a lot of people were thinking maria, right. I don't know what we were picking at the end.
Jules:We were picking as a spoiler maria also maria, also as a spoiler.
Joseph:Um, but sort of gladiator, sort of takes that period piece, sort of nomination yeah and uh, so we got that one wrong.
Jules:Um, glad to again very, very, very strange nomination, but, uh, congratulations to her and her team. Um, makeup and hairstyling, uh, we got one wrong here and again. Um, I believe that it's Dune that bit us in the butt Again. We have A Different man which got nominated Dune Part 2, which did not, nosferatu which did, the Substance which did and Wicked, which did, and the nominee that we missed was Emilia Perez, who was really gaining steam in the last minute. It got nominated for that BAFTA nomination. It did well in the makeup and hairstyling guild and so that was a nomination that I really wanted to put, that I really felt was going to happen. Um, and I just didn't know who to take out for. Who to take it out for. I thought Dune had to get nominated here.
Joseph:Um, and I mean in terms of crossover. You see Nosferatu and Wicked being costume films here. I think that's important, that crossover factor. I think the Emilia Perez team are all sort of newbies here. They don't have the most reputable amount of work for for this guild I'm sorry for this branch of the Academy as does the substance. I'm not sure I saw them both getting in. They both did get in Right.
Joseph:Um, a different man is different because you know, he's uh has a team member that's been nominated multiple times. Yes, um, not really. Not really surprised to see a different man there.
Jules:Yeah me neither.
Joseph:I will say to me, the biggest thing to talk about here is the lack of real persons. Yes, you know the lack of real figures in this category. Right, there's a pattern.
Jules:There's a trend that they like to nominate a film that is about a real life figure, and usually that dovetails with a actor who's nominated for that movie. An acting nomination Exactly. Think Tammy Faye in the eyes of. Think Jessica Chastain in the eyes of Tammy Faye. Renee Zellweger, judy Marianne Cotillard, lavianne Rawls. They'd like to include a film about a real life figure and you know, coincidentally or not, that film also has an acting nomination. There was not. That didn't happen this year. The options were Maria the Apprentice.
Joseph:Waltzing with Brando technically.
Jules:Waltzing with Brando and we really thought that the Apprentice had a shot. I think the makeup and especially the hairstyling work in that film is phenomenal. I thought that it had a dark horse shot of getting nominated here.
Joseph:And Ali Abassi technically got his film Order nominated here also in 2018.
Jules:Exactly, but they chose to not include any real life figure.
Joseph:Which is weird because again we talk about someone like Golda last year. I'm not sure how many precursor nominations it got to that one nomination last year for Golda. It might not have had any.
Jules:And so I think it's important.
Joseph:You know when they sort of I got, I got an eye for, I got an eye for the, the makeup guild, in one category. One category, well, it didn't have very many, it wasn't a very large team, or a very experienced team, a very noted team, um, in terms of you know how they've been, how you know how much of the work has been exposed to the Academy. But I think it's really interesting to see no real figures in this category.
Jules:You do have um actors who are nominated.
Joseph:You do.
Jules:So you have uh Demi Moore in the substance, you have Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo for wicked, and you have uh Zoe Zaldana and Carlos Sofia Gas gone for Amita Paris.
Joseph:So this category has a connection with the acting categories in a way, just not through the vessel of a real life figure this year I think I quoted 2016 Florence Foster Jenkins again a year without an expanded list of five, as the last time without any real figures and the last time without any performance, and the nominee that year one would suspect would have been Florence Foster Jenkins, to be both a nominee for actress and based on a real person.
Jules:Right In the category of best original score. We got four out of five. We got the Brutalist. We missed Challengers, which I really thought would happen. Even if I thought initially you know in this season that they're not going to nominate that kind of score it started picking up steam. It won a score at the Golden Globes. Um, we had observed a pattern that if you win something at the Golden Globes you should get nominated somewhere. Um, this was, I thought, challenger's best shot to get nominated here. It did miss the BAFTA long list. That should have been a clue for us. It sadly got snubbed. It's the score of the year and it's unfortunate that didn't make it here.
Jules:Instead, they nominated Wicked, which we'll get to in a minute, which was a very surprising Conclave, emilia Perez and the Wild Robot. But I was this close to predicting Wicked for best score. I thought that this was an opportunity to nominate Stephen Schwartz as a composer. He's had several nominations, some of them, or majority of them, for song, maybe one or two for score, and this was a perfect opportunity to nominate him, and he is so associated to the success of that original Broadway musical. So that really made me think and pause, as a nomination that could really happen and at the end I just I didn't, I didn't, I didn't put it and uh, you know, that's one of those nominations that makes me upset that I didn't call.
Joseph:Usually you'll see this category be a mix of the Globe nominees and the BAFTA nominees and the BAFTA long list. That wasn't the case. Wicked was not nominated for either. I think that the Challengers solo nomination for Reznor and Ross didn't materialize. So Reznor and Ross, every time they've been nominated, has been with other mentions for their films, and Challengers unfortunately ran really behind in other categories. I think that you know. Congratulations Chris Bowers, who finally breaks into this category. Not a lot of veterans, I think only Volker for Conclave, stephen Schwartzartz congratulations first nomination that's not an animated feature in this category.
Joseph:So I think he was mentioned for hunchback of notre dame and pocahontas and some disney stuff and some song prince of egypt.
Joseph:Um, some song work as well, but it's very odd to have wicked here. I think the last musical that we were able to quote as uh being nominated in this category was annie and I think again a movie based on a broadway musical. Um, that was annie, and it was in a category. I believe that was a specialized category to recognize music in a film that had sort of been inspired or had been based on music from a broadway show, so sort of a category that was created just for this sort of occasion, and so to have this movie there sort of breaks that trend, since I think 1982 was annie, um. But I think it's also awkward because I'm not sure many people are going to be able to quote the music, the original score of wicked right, and so to me it's a very, a very awkward nomination.
Joseph:And I wonder if it's a very, a very awkward nomination and I wonder if it's a nomination, you know, based more on the name of stephen schwartz uh congratulations also to john powell, who was nominated as part of the team of wicked.
Joseph:Ironically, john powell, this is his second nomination. I believe his first nomination came from scoring the dreamworks film how to train your dragon, which chris bowers, of course. This year scoring the DreamWorks film how to Train your Dragon, which Chris Bowers, of course this year scoring the DreamWorks film getting his first nomination for that as well, yeah, very interesting Not very often that DreamWorks is able to break into this category so that's a big news for the Wild Robot.
Jules:Right, and we'll get to it in a minute, but they didn't just break into this category, they broke into Sound.
Joseph:Design yes yes, okay.
Jules:So the next category best song. Unfortunately, we only got three right here, which is frustrating. So we got we predicted Compress Repress from Challengers. El Mal from Emilia Perez, the Journey from the 6888, mi Camino from Emilia Perez, and Sick in the Head for kneecap. We thought this was a perfect opportunity to nominate kneecap what the hell happened which had done so well at the bafta, it just didn't materialize.
Jules:Um, I will say that I always had a doubt about not including sing, sing like a bird. Um, well, the nominees were uh, el mal, a minute per like mi camino, milia, paris. Uh, the journey, this six, triple eight. Like a bird for sing, sing and never too late, elton john, never too late, and so I I always felt iffy about not including it. The Journey to the 6888, like a Bird for Sing, sing and Never Too Late, elton John, never Too Late, and so I always felt iffy about not including it, because it just this category, this branch, likes to include songs that are related to films, that sort of are have a sort of social cause attached to them. That's something they do often, um, and there was an opportunity to do that here with, uh, like a bird from sing sing.
Joseph:It was certainly something that I heavily considered, but I just left off and we failed there there's the idea also that you know this category has been leaning on maybe two best picture nominees. So yes, if you had considered sing sing to be one of the leading uh, best picture nominees among that list of think 10 titles in the original song category.
Jules:that might have also given you extra oomph to want to nominate that song 100% yeah, and I will say I really did not think that they were going to nominate Elton John again for Never Too Late, after he had won an Oscar in 2019 for the Rocketman film. Um, and it just seems a little bit too obvious to me right like okay, elton john legend icon getting nominated again in this category for a documentary, I believe it is a documentary and so about him, right so I don't know.
Jules:For me it just felt too on the nose and it happened, so I mean wrong.
Joseph:I think we had mentioned before how this category does embrace documentaries and specifically when it comes to documentaries about musicians, they tend to be very welcoming. If you remember glenn campbell I'll be me.
Jules:He was able to be an iron for that.
Joseph:I guess what's awkward here is that you just gave him the award for rocket man, which was also about Right, and you didn't have to do that. So to me this is yet another one of those nominations where maybe you're just checking off the name.
Jules:Elton John, yeah, but I will also say this category, and this is one reason that I ended up predicting we predicted a compress repress for challengers. Is this category really likes their musicians?
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:They're, you know, artists who are well known in the music world, and so Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross Nine Inch Nails they're musicians. They've never been nominated in this category Seemed like a perfect opportunity. But Elton John is Elton John and Brandi Carlile, who's featured in the song, is Brandi Carlile, and so maybe that should have been a clue that here are two huge musicians and here we have the opportunity to nominate both of them. Um, that should have maybe put us on the path towards never too late I think it's such a shame that they didn't find room for kneecap.
Joseph:I really do think that's a big shame. That would have been the storybook ending to that?
Jules:yeah, that would be cool yeah um, I'm not sure.
Joseph:I don't think that it got listed for foreign film, but I think this was the category to nominate that film and sort of introduce those musicians into a wider audience. Right Again, it feels a little bit iffy to me, a little bit icky, to have Elton John here yet again, having won so recently. I like the Stephen Schwartz thing. I think there's a name factor going on here, but yeah, those ended up being the nominees. Really sad not to see Nika on this list.
Jules:Right, and we had, as a spoiler, winter coat for blitz blitz being completely blanked.
Joseph:Blitz the warning that whoever wants to be number one in a few months and gold Derby, you know that's. That's a punishment.
Jules:Nobody wants to carry that cross unless you're.
Joseph:Morris Scorsese, please don't try not to be number one, because you know it's going to blow up in your face.
Jules:Moving on to best sound, we got one wrong here, and so we predicted A Complete Unknown, dune Part 2, again Emilia Perez, gladiator 2, and Wicked, and instead the nominees were Dune Part 2, wicked, a Complete Unknown, emilia Perez and the Wild Robot, and so that was a surprise. I really would not have predicted the Wild Robot for Best Sound Design, even though there's a link that you'll talk about soon that maybe could have made you foresee, possibly the Wild Robot, but I doubt it. I didn't think that they would nominate the wild robot. I thought the spoiler would be blitz, um, and yeah, I certainly didn't think that. Uh, there should be a carryover for visual effects and there was and there was for there was for dune and for wicked that's right that's right.
Jules:I guess I would have thought that there would have also been one for Gladiator 2. There wasn't, but what's the link that you want to talk?
Joseph:about. Well, I would say that we know the three locks are there, right, but we had always said that someone from Original Score, those top 15 from Original Score longas, someone should be there for Score. Someone should be there for a score, at least one. The obvious candidate for us was Emilia Perez. We sort of said well, is there enough room to nominate Emilia Perez as a second musical?
Joseph:here, I think it joins Wicked as the only two musicals to be nominated here since I think I believe the 60s, I think again in this era of Funny Girl and Oliver, and I think there was even four nominated that year, so it doesn't happen very often at all. So they was able to sort of take what I believe is the original score nomination into the sound nomination but, lo and behold, that's what the wild robot is able to do as well. So you had two films score, score uh, score uh, original score nominations and sound nominations. So I just goes to show you how important that score nomination is to show up in sound. I think we had talked about the visual effects connection right, and we did have that with dune. I think we were pegging gladiator 2 for that to sort of bridge visual effects and sound, but it ended up being wicked and I think that has a lot to do with sort of what we felt would be a bias against Wicked in the visual effects category when we finally talk about it.
Joseph:But other than that, I think you know it's probably a good time to start mentioning you know you take your hat off to DreamWorks, which we'll talk about it when we get to Animated Feature, but they're able to score three nominations. I believe that is the most nominations that DreamWorks has been able to score across the academy award categories, beating their previous high of two with something like how to train your dragon or something like shrek, even with animated feature and screenplay, I believe. So congratulations to them, finally landing more than two nominations but still being ghettoized out of best picture.
Jules:So right, there's always that right, and then moving on, we're going to talk about visual effects right now, and so we had predicted better. Man doom, part two, gladiator to kingdom of the planet of the apes, and mufasa, the lion king, the obvious person here, the obvious candidate here, contender here that we didn't put was wicked because we thought that again, uh, the visual effects branch was going to react a little bit more, let's say, skeptical.
Joseph:Yeah, sort of like the Guild, the visual effects society, which only nominated for one award and not the biggest award. And if you look at the visual effects in that movie. Certain aspects are done well, other aspects, I think, are done not so well, and there's some elements that feel revisited right In terms of animals and sort of I don't know how much innovation you would claim the movie has but the team in and of itself, the team is fantastically well nominated in their career, so that might have been the deciding factor.
Jules:We should have put more weight on that. Wicked did get in and also Alien Romulus got in, better man, king of the planet of the apes and doom part two. So alien romulus ended up getting in, um, which I'm happy to see. I was a big fan of that movie, better man. I'm glad the better man got something. Um, I will say that we had predicted mufasa the lion king, because because Disney does well in this category.
Joseph:Disney has been in the category ever since they've expanded to five nominees, so I think the last time was 09, back of District 9, avatar and Star Trek that Disney was left out of this category.
Jules:Right, and that proved not to be the case this year.
Joseph:That fell. It was either Mufasa or Deadpool, and we had said that. You know Sean Levy in 21. Laps has a way of sneaking into this category without any sort of precursor attention whatsoever. But that was not the case.
Jules:And also we had said that it was weird to include Alien Romulus alongside Gladiator 2.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:And we felt pretty sure about Gladiator 2 here.
Joseph:We had mentioned that Ridley Scott tends to. Whenever he's on this long list, he tends to survive the final five nominees Exactly. And so what?
Jules:ended up happening was.
Joseph:Insult to injury.
Jules:Insult to injury, they picked the other, ridley Scott related film and not the Ridley Scott directed film the not the Ridley Scott directed film, another one of his franchises that are stolen from him.
Joseph:So they do nominate that. I will say we've always talked about the connection between sound and visual effects and you have two sound nominees dune, part two and wicked in visual effects top five. But we've always talked about how there should be more than that and you really have three shortlisted films on the sound design list that are not for visual effects, because alien romulus right was shortlisted for sound and it was also shortlisted for score. So again, just that idea of how these categories are tied together, yeah and so that might have been a good tip off for alien romulus.
Joseph:I think we're both really happy to see better man and kingdom of the planet yates there because they were some of the films that were sort of getting pushed out of every other category and part of us was having the argument of can you really nominate both sort of ape films? Yeah, monkey films right um especially when they're coming from the same sort of uh visual effects house, uh weta. So it's it's great to see them both there.
Jules:I think they would not both be there had they not both been baffled nominees and, you know, leaders among the visual effects society nominees yeah, 100 I agree, and so paramount we had talked about for a second that both Ben Bafta nominees and leaders among the Visual Effects Society nominees yeah, 100% I agree, and so.
Joseph:Paramount we had talked about for a second that Paramount, how difficult it would be for it to get Better man and Gladiator 2 there, and yet again. So we're seeing this sort of trend where Paramount was able to get Gladiator in for one, Better man in for one, September 5 in for one, and they just had a horrible year after having two fantastic films and one film that was disappointing but, you know, picked up a good load of cash internationally right and then in the quote-unquote, ghettoized categories of animated feature, documentary feature, international film.
Jules:So animated feature were the five from gold derby. We got those right. The wild robot flow inside out to member of a snail waltz and grommet vengeance most foul. Um, we were afraid that moana 2 would make a sneak attack last minute because of the amount of, because it's a category more open. Uh to who?
Jules:because everyone can vote for it, even over individuals who work in the animation industry, and so because we think a lot of parents took their kids to see Moana 2, we were afraid of that. Luckily it didn't happen and something like Memoir of a Snail, which is a beautiful film, survived and is on this list, so no surprises in that category.
Joseph:I'm very happy to see Memoirs there. I was really getting scared that it wasn't going to be able to get in. Let's take our hats off to janice first time breaking into this category with flow um ifc. First time getting into this category with memories of a snail um. Adam gets nominated again after having one animated short film uh, you know, you still see the powerhouses there of uh, pixar and dreamworks. There again dreamworks. Three nominations, that's, that's a high. Netflix is still here with wallace and gromit um, but yeah, I think it's great to see memorable snail survive that late onslaught.
Joseph:I'm gonna want to hear it 100 and uh, similarly international film.
Jules:Um, we predicted emilia Perez Flo I'm Still here the Sea of the Sacred Fig and Vermiglio, from Italy, and I felt pretty good about those five. I was disappointed to see that Vermiglio did not get nominated and instead a very surprising inclusion with the Girl with the needle, uh, which I felt pretty sure was not going to ganaya for foreign film just because of the nature of the movie. It's a dark film, um, it's beautifully shot, but it's a dark material and it's not the kind of material that I think they tend to recognize, whereas something like vermiglio was. It seemed so, um, you know, uh, lush and you know, like a novel, um, and so it surprises me that it wasn't included. It won the uh second, second prize for, uh, the Venice Film Festival, and so I was disappointed to see Vermiglio. I'm surprised to see the Girl with the Needle. Yeah, what do you?
Joseph:think Well, congrats to Latvia finally getting nominated here for Flow. We thought that again, just that idea of getting a country nominated for the first time is enough impetus to get a film like Flow and a country like Latvia nominated. Flow, of course joining Flea and Waltz of Bashir, as one of the few films to be nominated both in animated feature and in documentary. So congratulations, and to Janice as well, but we have to also congratulate Mubi for getting the.
Joseph:Girl with the Needle in which we thought was just going to be too somber and maybe too odd of a film for them to recognize. They were able to get it in. Of course it won the camera image maybe that might have helped it did really well at con. But movie finally breaks into this category, which is great. So that's now a sixth nomination for movie, after having a fantastic day with the substance. Um, I think to me of note is, you know, congratulations to france for finally getting the recipe right and able to crash this list.
Jules:I have been doubting all year.
Joseph:This is another one of those where I said nope, nope, nope. And it ended up being nominated.
Jules:Um, that said, I think it's a very weird nomination because it's almost like country-less you know, and I think we're seeing some of that starting to play out a little too late.
Joseph:Exactly. I think think we'll. Hopefully we'll get into that a little bit later, um but uh, congratulations to france for finally sort of hitting the nail on the head, even though it may be a little bit bittersweet at this moment. And the other thing I'll say is we had talked about sony picture classics coming back into dominance, getting two nominations between I'm still here and kneecap uh, did not happen. And then we had toyed with the idea in our predictions with Janice being sort of that new powerhouse to get two films here, Did not happen either, because Mubi got in there instead.
Joseph:So very interesting to see Mubi finally break into this category.
Jules:Right, and so that was interesting to see. Our spoiler was how to Make Millions. Before Grandma Dies, which was a huge hit in Thailand. That did not happen. Before Grandma Dies, which was a huge hit in Thailand. That did not happen. The Netflix movie to get in was Emilia Perez. Again, we predicted it. You were always skittish on it.
Joseph:I told you, I really thought that France doesn't know what they're doing.
Jules:I understood the reasoning to be skittish, but it had amassed such power by then that I thought no way they're going to leave it out of foreign film. And then Documentary feature um had one surprise, uh, non-inclusion um, and that was daughters, which I thought would definitely get nominated, and it did not get nominated. I thought it was a dark horse to win, exactly. And uh, so we had predicted northern land daughters, sugar cane, soundtrack to a coup d'etat and Black Box Diaries. However, we were always, always, always worried about Porcelain.
Joseph:War. I told you that that Porcelain War nomination at the PGA and at the DGA just goes to show you that again the stat holds that if you're a PGA nominee or a DGA nominee on the documentary side, you know that's a huge boost to you once you make that initial long list.
Jules:Right and so we got Daughters Wrong and instead they put in Porcelain War, and I believe Netflix misses this category.
Joseph:Yeah which is a very rare thing, right, and we had sort of talked about how maybe the lack of distributor for no Other Land might have been a factor. It was not a factor.
Jules:Not a factor, and so I think that's probably the favorite to win. But we'll get into winners at a later date, a later time, I mean, and so you know, the surprise there, I think, was the snub for daughters. I would have thought something like Black Box Diaries would be snubbed before daughters would. But again, I did feel pretty good about Black Box Diaries, just based on what it's about. And so, yeah, porcelain War makes it in.
Joseph:Yeah, pretty surprising, though, about Daughters? Yeah, pretty surprising, even though, looking at the nominees, I wonder if that inclusion of Porcelain War, which arguably is the one that was maybe least anticipated to make this list I believe it premiered at Sundance too, alongside Daughters, so maybe there's this idea that they really only had room for one film that conjured up that energy since Sundance, right, and Porcelain War had done such an excellent job at again being represented at the PGA and the DGA, maybe that was the one to sort of steal that spot from Daughters right and uh, we didn't talk much about the shorts.
Jules:We predicted them on our Twitter page, um, but we didn't uh talk about it in any episode, so we'll just go through it right now. Um, for animated short, which we did pretty well, we got four right out of five. Again, it's notoriously wrong. It's notoriously difficult to get these right 100, but we certainly try. I, I, we both tried to watch as many as we could before predicting to see if we could get them um 100 right or close to 100. Um, so for best animated short, we predicted a bear named watch tech, beautiful man in the shadow of the cypress, wonder to wonder, wander to wonder and yuck, and the only one to not make it in was a bear named Watchtuck.
Jules:Which I thought was a shoe-in Right and instead it was Magic Candies Right, and I think that's an interesting inclusion, because we had said that that seemed like something that could happen because a nomination for that short film.
Joseph:Yeah, for that filmmaker who has a history of you know working in the animation industry for such a long time, a history of you know working in the animation industry for such a long time, and you know, I'm sure a lot of anime fans are going to recognize him from his work on things like dragon ball z that that would have always been very tempting and it's.
Joseph:It's great to see him here being now in print academy award right. So if you're into animation, you're really happy for that nomination for him, and that's what happened here. I think that's something that played a big part in this nomination that might that might have been the factor here.
Joseph:I think it's sort of interesting to me looking at this list and we had talked about it. I had wondered, you know, if we have sort of Memoir of a Snail and Wallace and Gromit on the animated feature side, if they're going to try to stay away from stop motion on the animated short side. That was not the case, because you have Wander to Wonder there, you have magic candies and you have beautiful men. So that was not the case, um, but I think we mostly had them right. I was surprised by a bear named watch tech not getting in. Um, it was a different style of film, a different style of animation that hadn't necessarily been appropriately recognized and featured this year and um, so I thought that might have been.
Joseph:It's uh, maybe it's a little bit of an angle to get in and maybe a little bit more serious minded right but then it got sort of upset maybe by something like in the shadow of the cypress, which also maybe a little more, a little bit more serious minded right um, in documentary short, we predicted death by numbers I am ready warden incident michaela's voice, a letter to the the World and A Swim Lesson.
Jules:And the nominees were I Am Ready Warden Incident Death by Numbers the Only Girl in the Orchestra and Instruments of a Beating Heart. Now we got three right here. The ones that we got wrong is Netflix does really well in these short categories. Yeah, and so in this documentary short category especially. But I really pegged along with most people. I think that Michaela's voice A.
Jules:Letter to the World would be the Netflix documentary short to get in, and it wasn't. It was the other documentary short that was on the short list, the Only Girl in the Orchestra, which did get in. I'm very surprised by that, honestly. You know, I really thoughtaela's voice was a shoo-in. Obviously it wasn't. Um, I think I can see the appeal for the documentary branch to include the only girl in the orchestra the historical factor right exactly um, but still it was a surprise inclusion, um, and a surprise substitution for Michaela's voice and then Instruments of a Beating Heart.
Jules:I think that short is very interesting because, knowing a little bit about the history of that short, it took such a long time to make several years. As we're following this class of graduating kindergartens, children from kindergarten, and you know I'm surprised that it was included here. But I wonder if something like that for a film that took so long to make, Maybe that was a factor.
Joseph:That that was a factor. Yeah, it might've been a factor. I mean great to see Bill Morrison here, right For Incident.
Jules:Yes, right.
Joseph:Fantastic documentarian. Finally, first nomination.
Jules:An incredible, incredible filmmaker First nomination. Very happy for that. That short is an incredible short. It should probably win out of this list, I would say I hope it does. Really a testament to the power of documentary filmmaking. So I'm very happy to see that MTV does pretty well in the documentary category and I think they're associated to. I am ready warden.
Joseph:I think they are I think they are too.
Jules:Yeah, and so that's on paramount that's something that I, uh, I saw as a very big possibility, even if I wasn't crazy about the short, the topic stood out the topic in and of itself stood out um and death by numbers is a very timely topic as well.
Joseph:You had mentioned the idea that among the long-listed documentary short films that there was almost too much youthful children energy that they weren't going to be able to survive.
Jules:So there was a short that was dealing with the war in Ukraine through the perspective of children. That was a favorite to get in.
Joseph:Of course, in a war gun nominated instead for the Ukraine perspective, exactly.
Jules:Um, and that short got snubbed here, which I was always iffy about because I think it was a little odd to see the, the, the, that crisis and that war through the perspective of a child or children. So I thought that that might be something that might make them less thrilled to uh, nominate it, um for documentary short. Um, it did get snubbed.
Jules:Um, I thought, rashida jones was gonna make it I I love rashida jones uh short film that she made with her partner well, I think, is it in will, I believe it's will gluck I think so. Um, and that's a beautiful short film. I thought that that that was a shoe in it's sort of. I wouldn't call it a crowd pleaser, but it's certainly the kind of short that uh is. Uh, you know something that I think you would respond to if you watch uh, enjoyable and touching and poignant and, um, just really touching.
Joseph:I really was a big fan of that short, um excuse me, it's actually Will McCormick, the co-director of that film, right?
Jules:exactly excuse us, um, and so I I was disappointed not to see that uh short make it in here, but again, I do. I think I agree with you, there was too much children in this category and they had to pick, and I think they picked a more uh, more timelier topics than a swim lesson, unfortunately. I love that short. And so, the last category, best live action short. Um, our predictions were anuja I'm not a robot, the man who could not remain silent, an orange from jaffa and room takenen. And so, uh, we got three out of five right here the man who could not remain silent, anuja and I'm not a robot, um, and the ones we got wrong is they did nominate, did they not? They did not nominate an orange from Jaffa or Room Taken. Instead, they nominated Alien and the Last Ranger.
Jules:Now, I was surprised by the inclusion of Alien. I saw that short. I was not a big fan of it, but it's certainly a very timely topic, certainly in the political climate that we're living in, and I think that had a lot to do with how the film managed to get this nomination. I'm very happy to see I'm not a robot, I'm not a robot on here. I think that was a really cool short. I think it's well done, um, and I really enjoyed that short. I think a film, a short film like Anuja kind of felt like a no-brainer to me just based on what it's about. And probably the favorite of this category to win as of now is the man who Can Now Remain Silent, probably one of the most decorated short films of the year. I think the surprise inclusion here besides Alien is the Last Ranger, which I don't think a lot of people were pegging to get in here.
Joseph:I think the same. I think that what ends up happening is that Alien and the Last Ranger end up surviving the long list due to the fact that I think they have a different perspective and a different topic that they're trying to cover, and so, when you look at the list, the list is really well-rounded in different topics, different social issues that all the films are trying to tackle, and I think that's always a major factor into being nominated or not, and so it makes perfect sense to me that both those films were able to edge out their competition and get nominated.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:I will say, looking at this list, congrats to all the nominees. But it does remind me about something that I wanted to say about international film, which is that we continue on that dry spell with no female filmmaker because Vermiglio was snubbed.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:And I think that's a shame and I think you know it would be wrong to end this episode without mentioning right 100.
Jules:I agree with that.
Joseph:I think that was a big shame as well, but yeah, but congratulations to all these films and all these filmmakers that got nominated. I think you said that you're a big fan of I'm not.
Jules:I'm not a robot oh, yes, yes, um, I really like that short film a lot and it's always. I think these short categories are some of the cooler categories because you get to see these filmmakers who are just starting out in their career have such a big spotlight an Oscar nomination.
Jules:So it's really nice to see their inclusion in the ceremony and how ecstatic they are to be, uh, included yeah in this uh, in this event and the work is, you know, compelling yeah, and so I'm always happy to see uh short filmmakers um receive attention yeah and so that is our rundown of the nominees for the 2025 Oscars.
Jules:You know, if I had to say a really quick rundown of who we think at this moment could win their categories, we'll make more episodes as we lead up to the Oscars and leading up to our final predictions. As of now, I would say let's do a quick rundown. For best picture, I personally think that it's between the Brutalist and Conclave. We're going to get into what's going on with Emilia Perez in a minute. That certainly, I think, has fallen off the radar, for I think so at least. So I would would say I would peg the winner to be between the budalist and conclave.
Joseph:You um, I think that's okay. I think it's somewhere between there. You know, I have my eye on anora. I think an anora I think anora is in an excellent position to steal this yes, uh, that's very interesting.
Jules:I think that'd be really cool.
Joseph:I love anora or a complete unknown, or yeah, and I think I think those are the top four.
Jules:um, maybe wicked I? I certainly think those are the top four. Maybe Wicked? I certainly think those are the top five. I don't know if Wicked can do it. I do like its editing nomination. I don't like its director's nom. I don't know We'll see Possibly In Best Director. I think we have a real legitimate shot at seeing Brady Corbett win for the Brutalist. I don't know what you think.
Joseph:That's who I'm pegging right now.
Jules:I think brady corbett makes a very compelling choice, but I'm gonna I'm gonna say, watch out for sean baker, I think you know, I think, onora might check enough boxes here interesting um for best actress, I certainly think it's between to me more for the substance and fernanda torres, for I'm still here yeah um, I think it's going to come down to narrative versus movie, I think and I'm going to say right now that I think narrative is going to win I think it's going to come down to the wire and I certainly don't think that I'm still here is going home empty-handed, so exactly what happens.
Jules:But I'll get into that in a minute. Uh, best actor. This is one of the more interesting categories it is.
Jules:it's interesting Because I really do feel that four of these men have a legitimate shot at winning here, four, really I do, because in a way, I wouldn't be shocked to see Coleman Domingo win for Sing Sing. It's a back-to-back nomination. He's not the film's only nomination, he's playing a real life figure, real life figure, um, and uh, you know, there's, there's a social cause to the movie that I think might uh compel people, motivate people to vote for him, um, and so don't count him out. Timothy chalamet uh for complete unknown. Obviously, the iconic bob dylan, and that film is a favorite. Ray fines finally, winning uh for conclave um, that makes a lot of sense. But adrian brody right now has the strongest performance on the list. He would get his second oscar, um, it could certainly. He could certainly not win, but he could certainly certainly win two not two wins for adrian ability might be a lot.
Joseph:Um, I think it's going to be a toss-up between the three guys, the three locks that were always there. It's going to be a toss-up between the three guys, the three locks that were always there. I'm going to give the edge to Bob Dylan right now. Bob Dylan winning this.
Jules:Right, I'm giving the edge to Adrian Brody right now. Supporting actress this is also a really weird category, especially based on current events, which we'll get into. I still think Zoe Zaldana is the favorite, and I would peg someone like Isabel Rossellini making a shocking surprise just based on, you know, not having this being her first nomination, her storied career as an actor. But I really do feel Zoe Zaldana is the favorite here still.
Joseph:Yeah, I think Zoe has this sewn up.
Jules:Supporting actor I think is a very interesting category, because I don't think Kieran is 100% safe Right now. I'm leaning towards Edward Norton.
Joseph:I'm still going to go with Kieran. I'm going to go with Kieran, christopher Plummer and I don't know first acting nominee to get in to win without a Best Picture nomination in an expanded slot.
Jules:We win without a best picture nomination in an expanded slot We'll see Adapted screenplay. I'm pretty sure this is Conclave's to lose Original screenplay. This is Onora's to lose Cinematography. I think this is the Brutalist's to lose.
Joseph:Yeah, I agree with that. I mean, I'm tempted to buy Ed Lockman, but you know, if everyone's voting, it's going to be the Brutalist's Costume design.
Jules:I think it's Wicked's to lose oh that's sewn up. Film editing might be a little bit more interesting. Yeah, film editing might be interesting. I could see Conclave winning and I could see Anora winning.
Joseph:I don't know, maybe the brutalist is going to win here. Now that it was finally nominated, of course, the Emilio Perez editor has been nominated a couple of times now. So has the Wicked editor. I mean, do the musicals cancel each other out here? Possibly, maybe, I don't know the Brutalist does not look bad to me right now, but Conclave, I'll go with Conclave here. I'm going to go go with I don't know.
Jules:I think I'm gonna go with an aura for editing. You know what? No, I, you're right, I'm gonna go with conclave. Conclave is gonna be that right sort of faux thriller that they're gonna like uh. Makeup and hairstyling. This is the substances to lose yeah production design.
Joseph:This is wickets to lose um no, I mean, with everything that's come out against the brutalist, I don't think it can win this category anymore. Right, I think some people are going to try to vote with the brutalist, but I I think you're right. I think nathan crowley picks up the win here for wicked right, I think, in best score.
Jules:I actually do think that um emilia paris can still win for score, agree. So I would pick emilia paris for best song. I I would still pick Amelia Paris too. Agree For El Mal yeah For best sound. This one's more interesting Dune.
Joseph:I don't know, I'm kind of getting into the idea that Dune wins zero.
Jules:Five nominations and zero wins. I don't know. I can see a winning sound. I'm going to say no, being the only win sound.
Joseph:I'm going to say no. I think the win is either Wicked or Complete Unknown, and right now I'm going to go with Wicked.
Jules:For best visual effects.
Joseph:I think Wicked, I'm going to go with Dune. This is the one category that. I think Dune can win Okay.
Jules:All right Animated feature. I say Flow, even though the Wild Robot overperformed.
Joseph:I agree. I think this is Flows.
Jules:Documentary feature no Other Land. I think that's no Other Lands to Lose, yeah.
Joseph:Yeah, I can see that.
Jules:International film Okay, I'm going to say that I'm Still here. Wins international film.
Joseph:I understand how the momentum is there right now? No, because.
Jules:I agree with you that I'm Still here, should win something, but I disagree with you in that it's not actress, it's foreign film.
Joseph:And I understand that perspective, and I certainly do not think, nor have I ever thought, that Emilia Perez was going to be able to win this category, although maybe, with recent events, maybe it's a good compensation prize. I don't know. I'm actually thinking that we're going to see a surprise here and that the winner for Foreign Film is going to be Seed of the Sacred Fig Over I'm Still here and I'm Still here is going to win another award.
Jules:That's what I think, and then the shorts are kind of tough to call, but right now, oh really tough. So right now, I'm going to say at this particular moment. It's going to change as we get closer to the date I'm going to say In the Shadow of the Cypress.
Joseph:I agree, ready animated short.
Jules:I agree with that. Actually Documentary short. I'm going to say Incident.
Joseph:I don't know. I actually think it's going to end up being death by numbers.
Jules:Could be, and then live action short. I'm going to go with the man who could not remain silent.
Joseph:I agree, the man who could not remain silent.
Jules:Okay perfect, and so that's our rundown of the nominations, Well before we finish.
Joseph:I do have a question for you, and I think it should be a tradition. I want you now to nominate the five nominations from the Academy that you think are the best it could be the most surprising the ones you were happiest to see. Whatever reason, just give me your five nominees for the best nominations you saw that morning.
Jules:Five, yes, okay, so okay, for different reasons. Yeah, sure, okay, okay. So I'm gonna say okay, well, I'm gonna say the nickel boys for best picture. Okay. I'm going to say possibly the substance for best picture only because I like a genre film, body horror film, finally cracking the best picture list, and I like mo finally cracking the best picture list, and I like Mubi finally cracking the best picture list Excellent.
Jules:Even if I'm not, you know, 100% sold on the substance as a whole. Great choice. I really love the nomination, let's see. I have to say I'm very happy that Sebastian Stan got nominated for the Apprentice. That'd be another inclusion of mine. That's three, I'm going to say Memoir of a Snail being able to be included in the best animated feature category. I was worried about it. I'm really glad that that didn't happen. The Snub I'm very happy about that. And then the last spot, probably, I'll say let's see. Okay, let's say costume design Linda Muir finally being able to break in and get nominated for her beautiful work in Nosferatu.
Joseph:Yeah, and she's done. I think she's done all his films.
Jules:Yes, all Robert Eggers films, so it's really nice to see her getting in here finally.
Joseph:Okay, and my nominees for the five best nominations the Academy made this morning or that morning were Nickel Boys for Best Picture I'm Still here for Best Picture. Coralie Fargeat for Best Director I love the inclusion of a different man in makeup which was one of my favorite films of the year. And I'm going to say Latvia for Foreign Language Film.
Joseph:Right, I wasn't sure Flo would double up in nominations. It's great to see Latvia nominated for Foreign Language Film Right Perfect, and so let me reverse that now and now nominate, please, the five nominations from the Academy that were the most shocking snubs or surprises. So these were not nominated by the Academy, they were snubbed by the Academy.
Jules:But shocking snubs or most disappointing snubs, Whichever which are open to interpretation.
Joseph:Just give me the five snubs that you think were most shocking, most surprising, more frustrating, most upsetting. Give me your five.
Jules:Okay, so my five most frustrating snubs, the ones that caused disappointment, frustration, heartache. Number one, undoubtedly number one, undoubtedly number one, number one, number one is the snub of marianne jeff beptis for best actress. I think that was a heartbreaking snub, um, really frustrating, very saddened by that. My number two is going to be no spotlight, no mention year round for michelle austin in hard truths. So I'm very frustrated that she could never manage to get a spotlight and certainly that she could not get nominated here for really superb work in Hard Truths. That's my number two, staying along the lines and supporting actress. I want to say that I'm pretty frustrated, similarly with Michelle Austin, that Al Fanning didn't get her flowers for A Complete Unknown. Again, I think she's lovely there and she was snubbed almost everywhere and it would have been nice to have seen her been nominated. So that's a sad snub. Then I'm going to say the snub for Challengers, point blank. I would have loved for Challengers to land somewhere. Score, editing picture to land somewhere, score, uh, editing picture somewhere. It's one of the best films of 2023, 2024, excuse me, um, one of my favorite films and it sucks to just have it be completely omitted. Um, and then my, before I go to my last spot.
Jules:My honorable mention is going to be um, the snub of a a swim lesson. I was really touched by that short film. I would have loved to have seen it been included. You know it really was a, a very powerful, quietly powerful short. Um sucks that it wasn't included. My number five is the complete snub of of all we imagine is like one of the best films of the year. Uh, one of the top top films of the year. Um certainly had its handicap and not being submitted for foreign film, but it sucks that it couldn't land anywhere in screenplay or picture. It was more than deserving and it's sad to see it be completely omitted okay, I think I have a lot of those two.
Joseph:I'm gonna. I want to be a little bit different, to give more options to listeners, so I'm going to go ahead and borrow number one. I will call it the shutout of hard truths is just really painful yeah one of the best films from last year and one of the absolute best performances from last year.
Joseph:That's marion jean-baptiste. But michelle austin is so lovely in that movie as well, so glad that at least maria jean-baptiste is a bafta nominee. But certainly that ranks very high for me. And then I'm also gonna steal um. All we imagine is light being completely shut out. Um, again, not picked by its country, but this is why that category is sort of a problem, right.
Joseph:Because, when your country is not going to elect that film or a certain film to represent it. It's going to be on the out unless we have a collective effort to sort of put it into another category. It just didn't materialize this year. It a a shame. Beautiful film. Yeah, then I'll go ahead and mention really just anyone that was involved in crafting and molding nickel boys. It was nominated for best picture, but so many times these really sort of awe-inspiring works can somehow muster enough enthusiasm to be nominated for best picture and failed to get nominated in other categories. So joe moufre cinematography, the film editing of nickel boys, romell ross's job, directing that film, such a powerful film, it's a shame that none of those were nominated the performances the performances are also quite beautiful and an ingenue alice, of course, amazing, as always.
Joseph:So I I'm going to shout out Nickel Boys as a movie that should have been nominated more. I mean, thank God it was nominated for at least two I thought of one and then maybe none really but really should be nominated more, and this is again something that the Academy should address.
Joseph:I'm going to also go ahead and mention something weird, because so many amazing, amazing, beautiful performances and best actresses here, but something about nicole kidman's turn in that movie keeps coming back to me in the sense that you know, part of this game which is kind of unforgiving is that nicole kidman does not get nominated this year because she was nominated for being the ricardo's and because it that ticked all the right boxes for the Academy. Probably the more challenging film, the more rewarding film and possibly the more challenging performance is a victim of that and that's an unfortunate element of this whole Academy game and again, I feel like it's something the Academy should address.
Joseph:I mean Cynthia Erivo was nominated so consecutively. I feel like if we're going to do that, then we can also nominate Nicole Kidman so consecutively, especially when the work is that powerful.
Joseph:Yeah, I agree, so I'm going to really pick on that one and again. I think you can apply that to so many other acting contenders this year. You can say the same thing about Elle Fanning, daniel Craig. You know Daniel Craig should be nominated. By this point. It's a little bit absurd that he hasn't been nominated, and I think my last mention is it's I. You know it's gonna go to the writers branch and the writer voters. This is the second year in a row where Netflix is getting in for a screenplay. That, I think, is just ridiculous. I mean, they got nominated last year in original screenplay for Maestro. I don't understand how, as a writer, that is the screenplay that you elect again. This is the branch that, in 2011, went out of their way to nominate a separation right, so I can't really fathom what is really motivating them to nominate these screenplays from netflix that are just subpar.
Joseph:and so emilia perez again not an atrocious screenplay, and I get that there's ambition, but there's just so much pitfalls in terms of the actual script writing that it doesn't need to be there, and there are so many other titles that could have been stronger options. And so I'm going to go ahead and pick on the writers a little bit and sort of say that you know from, at least from my point of view, from my vantage point they they certainly stand to do a lot better.
Jules:Right, that's. Those are really good selections. I agree with many of those. All of them, um all righty.
Joseph:That's our rundown of the 2025 oscar nominations, our post-mortem and so we're phasing out of our chess game, which is oscar nominations.
Joseph:The more entertaining game, I think, the more fun game the more involving game, and I think the more fun game, the more involving game, and we're sort of phasing into this new checkers game which is just determining the winner, mostly out of five individuals or five films up in one category, and so we'll be covering that for the following month in the lead up to the eventual Oscar night, which I think is beginning of March.
Jules:Yeah, march 2nd, all right. Well, this has been Academy Anonymous. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode entitled Cool Cats was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod compotechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg. Licenses by 3.0.
Joseph:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.