Academy Anonymous
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2024-2025; "Emilia Pérez" On the Ropes Or Knocked Out?; The Issue With the Critics Choice Awards; Last Hurrah for "Emilia Pérez" at the DGA & PGA
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- Has the Karla Sofía Gascon controversy sunk the "Emilia Pérez" campaign? Can anything be salvaged?
- Do Oscar voters care about social media backlash
- The problem at the heart of the Critics Choice Awards organization
- Forecasting the winners at the Directors Guild & Producers Guild
- A new front-runner after this weekend?
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous, I'm jules and I'm joseph and on this episode we're going to tackle a few um topics. We're going to start with a few words on the Critics' Choice Awards organization. We kind of have a kind of a weird relationship to them.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:You know, we are not you know fully over the moon with that organization for several reasons. We'll go into it. They're a bit odd. And we'll also have a few words on the controversy that has surrounded Emilia Perez, since the tweets have come out about Carlos Sofia Gascon, and how that's going to affect or how we see it affecting, emilia Perez as a whole on Oscar night, its awards chances. And then we'll do a brief prediction for the upcoming Director's Guild Awards and the Producer's Guild Awards.
Joseph:On paper, this is supposed to be a pretty big weekend. We have Critics' Choice winners, director's Guild Award winners and Producer's Guild Award winners. That's on paper, but because of everything that's going on with the Emilia Perez Carlos Sofia Gascon sort of campaign emilia perez carlos sofia gascon sort of campaign we may end up seeing that these award shows and these awards bodies are maybe a little bit late to the party and they're not going to be fully reflective. Yeah, they may lag behind in terms of whatever overall effect.
Jules:Um that sort of headline stealing news about emilia perez is going to have at the Oscars they might not be so good at forecasting what's going to happen at the Academy because the voting window for several of those awards were happening, For example, the Critics' Choice. The voting window was happening prior to the Emilia Perez scandal.
Jules:It got pushed back so much because of the LA fires and certainly the scandal was occurring while the voting was happening during the producers guild awards and the directors guild. But we still don't know how many of the members who ended up voting, how many of them, were aware of the controversy, which seems like it had roots, you know, very online. You know that's sort of where it originated. How many of them you know were on social media? You know that's sort of where it originated. How many of them you know were fully aware of the controversy? And even if they were aware, it's still a question mark how voters at large, throughout this entire industry, are going to react.
Joseph:Is that going to have an effect or not is going to be the large question, and these may not be the best award shows to demonstrate that. Something like the BAFTA is certainly going to have a voting window where this is right, smack in the middle, and that may be more significant there in terms of reading, where the mindset of the voters is at.
Jules:Exactly, and I think that we'll know how much this controversy has sort of penetrated this awards bubble if, for example, amelia Perez should have been the favorite to win the DGA and the PGA and the Critics Choice and even beyond, possibly even likely the SAG Awards. So I think this weekend, if Amelia Perez gets completely snubbed, then I think that's a pretty good indication that the controversy has officially penetrated the bubble.
Joseph:And goodbye Amelia Perez, to winning Best Picture or hello, amelia Perez, to launching a new campaign in terms of, you know, rehabbing its image. I mean, it has enough time. It has enough time to bounce back.
Jules:That's all I'm saying I don't know, because I want to remind everyone that the oscars are march 2nd, but the voting window is february 11 to february 18 so they do have time to launch an all-out strike to try to turn this narrative around I mean, I I hear what you're saying and I think it's certainly possible, but I think my gut is that the window's still too small and I think that they're already trying to pivot by sort of expunging Carlos Ovea Gascon from the campaign, as we saw over the last few days in several articles, variety for example. So I think that's their solution just pretend Carlos Ovea Gascon is not Emilia Paris when she really is, and focus more on Zoe and the movie and Jacques and the awards it's won and the nominations it's had. So they're already trying that. I think it's too little of a window. I think it certainly doesn't help that the film is called Emilia Perez and the actress playing Emilia Perez is Carlos Sofia Gascon. I think that really hurts From my experience.
Joseph:what I would say to that is that it's hard not to sort of it's synonymous now. Yeah.
Jules:Emilia Perez is Carlos Sofia Gascon. Carlos Sofia Gascon is this controversy?
Joseph:The campaign should not be to eliminate Carla Sofia Gascon from the center of the film. The campaign should be to rehab her from the position of the center. So I think that they're making a mistake by adopting the strategy of okay, well, let's just pretend she doesn't exist and we'll ice her out of all the ceremonies, of all the campaign stops, of all the promotion. We'll ice her out of all the ceremonies of all the campaign stops, of all the promotion, will ice her out. I think that's the wrong approach. I think the right approach, the approach that could save some face, is to sort of gather around her and sort of support the idea of separating the person now from the person, then the person from you know, the person from the statements.
Jules:Right. I think they're really having a hard time with that. You know, as we saw in those articles, the camp, the Netflix camp, the award at least the camp that's concentrated on the awards push is really separating itself from Carlos Sofia Gascon, just sort of having to fend for herself, doing these unauthorized interviews, and the sort of schism between the two just feels like it's growing by the hour. So I don't know if there's enough time to sort of reverse course on that. Maybe you're right. I think it would have been a smarter call to do that. Let's own it, let's apologize, let's move forward, let's take accountability.
Jules:I think that's an issue that a lot of people have had with her and her apologies and this controversy. They don't feel that there's enough accountability, uh, that there's maybe possibly just still too many excuses, um, just still not enough accountability. And maybe if they together had sort of assessed that the best thing would be to take full accountability and apologize earnestly and move forward, that could have really helped a lot. But I think carla sofia gascon as a person, I think she's someone who was very interested in defending herself and I don't think that that has helped this controversy. I think it just made it worse.
Joseph:I I wonder if and again, I don't think Netflix has ever been the best campaigner. I think the number of best picture trophies that they've won, which is zero, demonstrates that, even when they're favorites. But I do wonder if this is a little bit of karma for having category fraud with Zoe Zaldana. And had you built the film around two leads, or around Zaldana as the lead, maybe you would be in a better place right now. That's a good point.
Jules:I think that's a really good point.
Jules:I I think that if Carlos Sofia Gascon had gone supporting though, she would have been the favorite to win that category right and she would still be in a position of, well, who's going to win supporting actress now, whereas there's a lot of options in actress, they didn't have to go for color sofia gus gone. It seems like that's definitely not going to happen. If there's one award that amelia paris won't be winning on an oscar night, it will be best actors. Um, so I think that's an interesting uh point, but I'm not really sure if it would have changed much it would have changed the issue of having to ice out your, your center of your film you're, it's easier to ice out your supporting player than it is to ice out the lead of your film and the lead actor or actress nominee for your film.
Joseph:It's more noticeable.
Jules:Yeah, it's more noticeable and so, continuing on this controversy since we started talking about it, um, it's, it's a big question mark how voters are going to react.
Joseph:I think we're going to get a taste of what the industry, uh, is feeling this weekend, but, like you mentioned earlier, uh, as we started, it might be a faulty taste yeah, might be lagging it might be that emilia paris does really well and that still doesn't prove that it's going to do well on austral night, but it is an opportunity to start the campaign, to relaunch the campaign into sort of uh, you know, uh a campaign where they sort of rehabilitate the image of amelia perez. Possibly winning nothing is going to help amelia perez sort of get through this hurdle, then getting onto a podium and having to make a speech, and if you can make the right speech, then I think you're set I wonder if that's something that carlos sofia gascon could have done.
Jules:slash should have done. You know, I know that there were several events this past week and they're going to be more that she's skipping. I know that I just heard today, I believe, that she's skipping the goya awards and initially I think she was going to go. I think, as scary as it might be for a person, for any person, in the midst of a controversy, to win an award and have to be center stage, at the spotlight and give a speech, it's an opportunity. It's an opportunity that you can take to really, as you said, rewrite this narrative that is currently occurring. And so I'm not sure that she and her personal camp have taken enough stock of the opportunity they can have in these award shows to really confront and address what's going on, address the errors that there may have been when she made her apologies and just turn the page. And so the opposite is happening Everyone's sort of digging in their heels and being very firmly in their side of the argument and the schism, and so nothing is happening. It's just getting worse, I agree.
Joseph:And I will say that as we talk about it, I think it's important to bring up that. Yes, she's being judged for these statements and these tweets, and we've seen over the course of the campaign that she's demonstrated herself to be a very steadfast individual, an individual that you know will defend her supporters and defend you know her friends and her family and her colleagues and the artists that she made the film with almost to a fault, and you know her friends and her family and her colleagues and the artists that she made the film with almost to a fault, and you know that's a good thing and a bad thing. You know that's a virtue and a flaw. Right, unfortunately, you're caught in this awkward position right now, but I don't think that, you know, anyone is beyond sympathizing with that. Yeah, yeah. But I'll also say this is that you and I and you and I have talked about it is that right now, to a certain degree, she's sort of the scapegoat for?
Joseph:what has been sort of this social media online backlash to this film that's been building up, that's been building up and that you know will get you, after you, get 13 academy award nominations. If you're a voter and you think you're going to hand someone an academy award nomination and not inspire backlash, then I think you're not paying attention, and so I really do think that I I credit the academy for some of this issue, because as an academy member, you have to bring that sort of, I think, judiciousness to what you're doing, and I don't think that this is a film that needed 13 nominations. I think that had this film tied something like the Brutalist which seemed appropriate or Conclave, it would not be bearing the grunt of this backlash.
Jules:Right, I do hear what you're saying. However, I will say that the problematic nature of the film, legitimate criticisms that people have had about the film, the problematic nature of the film, legitimate criticisms that people have had about the film, you know that's not always the case with the quote-unquote most nominated film. Obviously. Last year you had oppenheimer most nominated film, um, and it won um obviously, but you know it wasn't really courting this amount of criticism and judgment and discussion and debate, um, that amelia paris is, because amelia paris is a more. It's a film that's obviously more controversial in terms of how it was made and, uh, the topics it's trying to tackle and how sensitive it was to the world that it's exploring and so, um, and the themes that it's exploring, and and so you're just not going to have that every year with the most nominated film and every year there is a quote-unquote most nominated film.
Joseph:Right, it's not a given, but I will say there is no speedier path to being hated, possibly, than there is being celebrated, right. So when you have any sort of individual or film or piece of art that is celebrated to such a degree, it gets easy to pick on them right, and it gets easy to sort of focus in on them and to start ripping them apart for their flaws instead of building them up for their virtues. Um, I think that's always been a factor. You're right, it's not for, you know, the most nominated film, but in this case it was already a, as you said, controversial situation and the academy sort of turning a blind eye to all those sort of holes in the movie and holes in the production has only exacerbated the response of social media.
Joseph:Now, as you said, it's debatable whether the Academy gives an F about any take that social media or film Twitter or Oscar Twitter has about Emilia Perez. It's really debatable.
Jules:Now, what's not debatable is that when the star of your film sort of breaks down on CNN that they're going to be able to avoid that completely negative feelings. You know, when you have a tweet talking about Hitler and you have uh tweets, you know the Selena Gomez tweet, you know the, you know, was particularly piercing, I thought, because they worked together, um, even if it was made before they worked together.
Joseph:Well, didn't she discredit it? I thought that she discredited that one as that, I guess on the CNN interview she did.
Jules:It's really hard to know what is real, what is not.
Joseph:That's part of the problem, yeah.
Jules:Yeah, exactly, no-transcript.
Joseph:Which is what social media is designed for. It's designed for your most reckless, insensitive. Take. Whatever brain fart you have at that minute, just tweet it. That's the design of Twitter. I'm just saying let's attack the system as well.
Jules:Right. Well, I don't think every person on social media is that way, but certainly I think social media sort of begets a lot of people's worst impulses. Um, and I think that's you're right, that's a, that's a that's a really tragic thing about the entire social media apparatus. Um, but you know, you can't help but see those tweets and, you know, feel a certain type of negative way. Um, so I understand the people who are upset and I understand the people who are frustrated and disappointed.
Joseph:I understand.
Jules:Especially since you know this was an iconic. This was a landmark nomination. It should have been celebratory. You know 100% of the way, so I totally understand the sincere disappointment and frustration with what's happened.
Joseph:I think the landmark nature, though, of the achievement might also be one of the issues here, in the sense that I don't doubt that there are some people throwing wood on the fire to bring down the first trans nominee. I haven't read everything, but I'm sure they're out there. I mean, it is Twitter. But I'll also say you know, that piece of history is so meaningful to people, even on social media, that the degree to which you have to sort of carry yourself is tough. It's not easy.
Jules:Yeah, and, and, and. I think there's something really tragic about this whole thing. You know, uh, it's, it's so tragic to have, you know, certainly, uh, uh, like you were, like we were saying, a landmark nomination, sort of sort of fizzle into this catastrophe. It's something that it's going to be hard to ever erase from this nomination Right. And so the first is also one of the most chaotic, problematic, tragic, you know sort of things that have happened to the Academy with regards to actors being nominated.
Joseph:I absolutely agree. And just to build on that also, you know, because again we should be fair and not just attack the individual, attack the campaign, attack the producers. And I think again, if you have an issue with that film it's every bit as much as jacques arriard's fault as it is carla's, possibly more. But I will say this is that we had a spectacular year for best actress, with wonderful films, wonderful contenders, wonderful performances, wonderful roles. But sometimes that brings out the worst in people yeah and in film, twitter.
Joseph:And in oscar, twitter and, in you know, the movie, sort of public sphere of people sharing their opinions, which is which is great.
Joseph:Sometimes it can get toxic yeah, and I think stan twitter, stan twitter and so like when you have, you know, fernando torres fans attacking I don't know carla sofia fans, and then carla sofia fans and fernanda torres, fernanda torres fans, not just, you know, arguing against each other, but then they leak into the actual performer or the artist and then they're having to fight things that are coming, things that are being drudged up from the past.
Joseph:It can't be easy yeah, you know definitely um, it would have been interesting to see all this come out when she was cast, when the movie premiered at con, but it really only comes out once. That oscar nomination, you know, comes out right, right. So I do think that's unfortunate. There's a certain toxicity to the whole system that, you know, we're certainly a part of. We comment on this, but you know you have to sort of check that behavior. Yeah, um, as you're sort of engaging in this, because there's a productive, beneficial, rewarding way to interact with it, that doesn't have to, you know, result in people icing each other out and being disinvited and, you know, reporting the truth. There's nothing wrong with reporting the truth, I'm all for that. Let's also, you know, give us a space to sort of absorb that. You know, let it marinate into our consciousness, you know, let it marinate into our emotions, and then come up with an adequate response and not just sort of, you know, want to throw this person away all of a sudden. You know.
Jules:But I also think I completely agree with you, but I also think that, again, accountability is really important.
Jules:You know when you mess up and you make mistakes and you do things that you shouldn't have done, even if it was an earlier version of yourself that is more flawed, more problematic, less enlightened. You know, if you made those mistakes, you need to own up to it. You need to, you know, take accountability and have sincerity with the accountability that you're taking. And I think if she had approached it with more sincerity and more passion with regard to her um, apologetic tone, uh, sentiment, rather, um, I think that things would have been different. You know, I really feel that there was. You know, I know it looks like we were at the edge of a cliff and there was no saving it, but I can't help but feel that if certain steps had been taken, certain approaches had been different.
Joseph:You're trying to really understand where the criticisms are coming from, and trying to take accountability it doesn't really serve you or anyone to sort of qualify that apology and sort of you know first, state, you know the you know, emphasize the context and where you're coming from and the separation. Sometimes, as you say, just have to own the apology um, the same time, there's the tragedy of it. As we had mentioned before, that's just a character flaw right, because I feel like.
Joseph:It's the same individual we've seen, and people were championing and celebrating, you know, almost a year ago when Khan came out right. It's just a person who is very, again, very steadfast and very, dare I say, stubborn, willful, willful even in her loyalty and even when it comes to owning it, she won't abandon herself and abandon. You know what was in her mind and her heart as she wrote those things, or you know understanding where her mind and her heart is now Again. It's just character flaw and it's unfortunate. That's a little bit of the tragedy, right.
Jules:Right, it is character flaw, but, as we've mentioned several times, you know, accountability is just so important and when something like this comes out and I think a person is forced to confront you know, really problematic, really seriously problematic and dangerous and ugly way of uh looking at things that are really significant and important, um, I think you know a person has to be open and willing to do that work, to face that, to confront that and to want to rise above that and to own it, as we've been saying, and try to grow from it.
Joseph:I completely agree. And you know, even if it is character flaws sometimes, oftentimes an individual, any individual, will be pushed at a moment in this world where they're going to have to meet the moment and rise above those flaws. And not everyone can meet that moment, but that's the challenge of when that arises in anyone's life and you know, I'm not sure that she's met the moment on this occasion. Right, Dare I say. You know, I'm reminded of the whole Lydia Tarr, of it all right.
Joseph:But you know, if there's anything we learned from that movie, it's that idea again. You don't have to be reduced to your flaws, but there will come a moment where you have to sort of again. As we said, meet the moment and meet the moment, for you know what it means for everyone else.
Jules:Yeah.
Joseph:And it's only a question whether you as a person can get there.
Jules:I do think it's interesting to we've talked about it. There was talk about rescinding a nomination and you know, I was of the opinion that, as hard as it may be because it's such a landmark, a significant nomination as hard as it may be to rescind a nomination, or you go on your behalf and say, as Carlos Sofía Gascon, I'm going to rescind that nomination, I don't feel worthy in this particular moment. I think that there's a lot of growing that needs to be done and I don't want to sort of have a shadow on the ceremony and these other brilliant nominees. If she had taken that approach, I think that would have helped the movie and it would have helped the narrative that's being sort of written as we speak and I think it would have turned the tide a little bit it's possible.
Joseph:Now I will say it's interesting because your statement didn't go where I thought it was going to go, because when I think rescind a nomination, I think the Academy rescinding the nomination and disqualifying you. As opposed to the way that you're describing it, I'm sort of interpreting it as renouncing the nomination. So you volunteer voluntarily, you know deciding that I'm going to disqualify myself.
Jules:Yeah, that's what I mean.
Joseph:No, it's interesting because you can read it both ways, right, I mean, well, what's your opinion on? Should the Academy rescind the nomination?
Jules:Honestly, I just don't think that they're in a tough spot. So I don't think that they could ever again, because it's such a landmark nomination, I don't think they could ever, they would ever feel comfortable doing that. Um, you know, uh, unless it were, you know, an extreme case, which I don't think this is yet for them, in order to do that sort of uh, to take that sort of action. Also, I mean, you know, optically, it has to matter to them how it's going to look for them to rescind the first trans actors to be nominated, right? So I think, like I said, they're in a tough spot. It would have had to have come from Carlos Sofia Gascon.
Joseph:I think that's really interesting and I think that's a very sort of interesting angle there in terms of renouncing your own nomination. I think that's an extraordinarily difficult thing to do. I mean, really, this is a performance and they try to separate the behavior from the performance. I just want to remind everyone that Mel Gibson was nominated for directing.
Joseph:Hacksaw Ridge after everything, now a special envoy to save Hollywood, but I guess that's a subject for another moment, my point here being that I think the closest I'll get to is that maybe it would have been appropriate for Carla to renounce the invitation to attend and maybe for the Academy to rescind the invitation to attend, so sort of that whole behavioral stipulation, that sort of Will Smith is sort of bearing out right now. Maybe you could have gotten that involved and rescinded the invitation to the ceremony. I think that's as as comfortable as I can get in terms of invitations but not nominations right.
Jules:I actually think there's still a chance that she won't go voluntarily, yeah as we've seen her opt out of all these events.
Jules:Maybe she won't do that, though, because, as she was saying in her cnn interview which is understandable she feels the weight of sort of carrying this landmark nomination and what it means to the trans community. So maybe that might be something that really propels her to go there despite all this controversy. But still, I think it's going to take a lot of courage to be there in that ceremony with all this controversy surrounding you and you're the target. You know, I can't imagine that that's.
Joseph:I can't only fathom the amount of courage that that's going to take it's very unfortunate, but I think, in the situation we're in, it sounds like all I'm hearing is, you know, from bad to worse in terms of no real positive, great solutions here. Just, you know different forms of of losing. You can go and that's a very difficult position to worse, in terms of no real positive, great solutions here. Just, you know different forms of of losing. You can go, and that's a very difficult position to be in. You cannot go and that's also a very difficult position to be in, a very tragic position to be in either way.
Jules:So, very unfortunate situation, I think yeah, no yeah, I just think it's sad man, it's really sad. However, I do feel that zoe's aldana has handled this really gracefully and really well. She's really well spoken, she's a very bright a woman. Uh, she's very smart, she's very, um, she carries herself very gracefully, and so every time that she's been asked um about this controversy, I feel like she's responded in a very understandable and I feel like she's responded in a very understandable and empathetic manner. So I feel like that has really helped her campaign in a way. I know people over here are, you know, on social media saying, oh, who's going to win Best Supporting Actress now? If anything, I think how well she's handled the situation has made her more of someone that you want to vote for An appealing choice, exactly Because that can't be easy either. She's sort of bearing the grunt of having to be the face of the movie now and she's handling it really beautifully.
Joseph:Yeah, um, very, uh, it's very encouraging and it's it's very lovely to see yeah, the way she's handling that and I will say that is that I'm really going to be curious because my gut says that the academy is not going to give an f that film. Twitter has gone from disliking this movie to hating this movie and they're really not going to care at all that social media does not want this win to happen and frowns upon the 13 nominations for amelia perez until again, until the revelations of you know everything that has happened with Carla Until. Then I'm sure the Academy was partying that Emilia Perez got all those nominations.
Jules:Yeah, I think after the Oscar nominations came out and it was 13 and it was leading and it broke records as being the foreign film with the most nominations ever it was going to win Best Picture handily, and they were happy about it happy, and they were more than happy with that. Um, this changes things not only because, as we were saying earlier, it it leaves a really, you know, sour and ugly taste uh, for you personally, or at least for some people, but on top of that now there's a section of the academy that's going to be worried about optics yeah, well, we'll find out.
Joseph:Right, I got my. I'm a little skeptical, but we'll find out right and I think again we'll see.
Jules:We'll start seeing some seeds of that, some breadcrumbs, in the next few days, yeah so stay tuned yeah um, something that's happening, uh, really soon, in the few and tomorrow, today actually, depending on when you're hearing this podcast is a critics choice. Awards, yes, which you know is an organization that I, that we both feel iffy towards yeah you know, it's not that we have a problem with what they stand for, necessarily. I think we have more of a problem with how they go about.
Joseph:You know, um, their nominees, yeah, nominating films, I think that there is, unfortunately, a lack of transparency to the whole organization and I think there's a lack of integrity to the whole organization. Right, if you're going to try to sell to me now that you know? Amelia Perez, with the critics that it got, was nominated for Best Picture and I'm sure was the favorite until a week and a half ago and is now possibly going to lose. Sure, was the favorite until a week and a half ago and is now possibly going to lose. First of all, I don't know how much trust I have that there wasn't some interference in the voting when they found out that amelia perez is possibly not the favorite to win anymore.
Joseph:So I have distrust there. If they want to win that trust over, they have to increase their transparency. But it's just the sort of idea where, year after year, you're going to see a top 10 best picture that are going to have some questionable nominees on there, when a movie that was as championed as challengers couldn't get in right so if this is the critics choice and the critics choice was clearly challengers is a better film than emilia perez then how come challengers has such fewer nominations?
Joseph:than emilia perez and is not even listed in Best Picture.
Jules:Right. So to me there's like a lack of integrity there, right? That's one of our problems that they're more focused on predicting Oscars and being the sort of televised sort of public version of Gold Derby you know, the nominees will likely be who the Gold Derby was thinking were going to be the nominees as opposed to organizations like the SAG Awards and the Golden Globe Awards and the BAFTA Awards. They go their way. They like what they like. They don't care that you don't like it. They're not necessarily trying to predict the Oscars. They just end up having a lot of overlap because they have influence.
Joseph:Right, but then just change your name and call yourself something else. That's not the critic's choice. You know, I'd like to know if Manola Dargis has a ballot, if she, you know, opts into this organization.
Joseph:Manola Dargis of the New York Times Of the New York Times Again, because technically I will. I can read a critic's choice every year at the end of the year when they print out their list of the 10 best films. Right, right, and Manola Dargis is going to have the films on there that she really enjoyed and she's not going to put in Amelia Perez just because it's the favorite twin best picture. Exactly she's going to leave out whatever she doesn't feel needs to be there, exactly For her own preference.
Jules:As an organization they're really invested and interested in getting as many as much crossover as they can with the Academy. That's kind of the shtick that it seems like they're selling.
Joseph:They announce it every year, right.
Jules:We're important because we have such overlap with the Academy. If you get nominated here, it's a sign that you're on your way to an Academy Award nomination or an Academy Award win, and again, what does that matter?
Joseph:What does it matter if you have that overlap with the Academy?
Jules:Right, and it just feels like they're so invested overlap of the Academy, right, and it just feels like they're so invested in having that uh, you know, predicting the Oscars correctly as much as possible that you know that will take precedent over nominating what they might have genuinely felt was the best film, or the best films, or the best performances or the best um uh uh filmmaking of the year. So at least that's the way it feels to me year round, and I feel like a lot of that is motivated by them wanting to establish themselves as this formidable presence.
Joseph:So the.
Jules:Golden Globes have their status, and the SAG Awards have their status, and the BAFTA Awards have their status, and they're looking to have their status Right, and so they feel that the way for them to have that status is to have the moniker of well, if you want an award show that's going to uh, give you the greatest uh accuracy as to how the academy is going to vote, listen to us exactly so that, again, that that becomes the most important thing for them as opposed to well, these are the best films of the year from our from our wide um array array of voters and critics.
Jules:And this is what we thought. And, like the national society of film critics or the los angeles film critics or the new york film critics circle, if you thought it was great, great if you didn't tough, you know we're not necessarily trying to predict what's going to win best picture we like what we like.
Jules:And I think that's something that you see with the SAG awards and the globes and the BAFTA. Again, there is overlap because I think those institutions have inherent influence on the Academy. I don't think the critics choice does. I think the critics choice is seeking that, but I totally disagree that it does.
Joseph:So there is overlap between those organizations, but it always feels like those awards bodies are more prone to what they like and spotlighting what they like not necessarily what they think is going to get an oscar nomination right, I, I agree, and maybe we're being a bit hard on them because you know part of this whole broadcasting awards deal, it is a business and it is, you know, advertising dollars and again trying to, as you said, build that sort of reputation and credibility.
Joseph:And so again it's a business just trying to defend its own business interests. We've seen it since the beginning. So we've kind of seen every iteration they've had, whether it was on E or AMC or Bravo, the multitude of places, the CW where it's played. I just I'm not sure that they have found the genuine heart of what they want to do. It seems like they're trying to just pick off the Golden Globes and at one point, when the Golden Globes were canceled you know back at what feels like a long time ago but it was pretty recent, you know it really felt like they were going to step into those shoes and be the new golden globe. So nobody go to the golden globes anymore because we're shunning them. But everyone comes to the critics choice.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:At the same time we're getting more sort of again. These business interests sort of evolve into or interfere with the whole machine, or trying to be another cog in the machine. So isn't there like a whole?
Jules:nother one now the Hollywood critics for like TV no not for TV, I'm not not the critics choice.
Joseph:I'm saying isn't there like an Astro? Award now from a whole different other organization that also happened to be critics.
Jules:Yeah.
Joseph:Um, and now they're, you know, trying to broadcast their thing as well, and so the whole thing, in my opinion, it gets a little messy, it gets very messy, If you ask me.
Joseph:It's much more meaningful and worthwhile to be singled out by the National Society of Film Critics, which has the reputation which has the years of doing this and I think are not serving any interest other than expressing their personal opinion and reflecting what they thought was the best in cinema. And because of that, because they don't sacrifice their genuine opinion at the expense of being more popular.
Jules:Or at the expense of trying to predict.
Joseph:Oscars, or at the expense of trying to predict Oscars, is why I do think you will see a potential voter, a group of voters. Be curious as to who they selected.
Jules:Right and possibly say, well, I want to see that film yeah whether it's Los Angeles Film Critics or the New York. Film Critics.
Joseph:Circle or the National Society of Film Critics Right.
Jules:And I also want to say that this might not be true for every voter. That's a part of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.
Jules:I'm sure that there are voters who vote for what they genuinely thought was the best and for, uh, films and filmmaking that they thought were the best, that they want to spotlight.
Jules:But I think they're outnumbered by the amount of people who are trying to predict the right oscars, um nominations. And I also say that you kind of feel this in the room.
Jules:Yeah, you know you can feel there's the reason why at the award show, the room of the golden globes and the room yeah, you know you can feel there's the reason why at the award show, the room of the golden globes and the room of the sag and the room of the bafta awards feels different than the room of the critics choice. It always kind of feels a little bit awkward, awkward as hell, and I think that's because, again, there's this spirit's this spirit of non-genuineness. That's happening. You can't escape that air and I just really think they haven't really solved that. But I will say and I was just thinking about it right now and I think this is an interesting anecdote to mention don't think that every member of the Academy is beyond this way of thinking, like the Critics' Choice Awards, because you and I in film school had a professor oh that's right who was a producer, he wasn't.
Jules:he was a retired, he was kind of retired but he taught us a class and he was a member of the Academy. A member of the Academy, and I'm pretty sure they've kicked him out by now.
Jules:I don't know if they have or they haven't, but I know that he and one of our both of our classes he would go out of his way to mention, you know, his Oscar ballot and who he was voting for, and when the nominations came out he was very much bragging about how he got the five right. Yeah, came out, he was very much bragging about how he got the five right. Yeah, this was uh, you know well I won't mention the.
Jules:I won't mention the year, yeah, but um he, he was very much bragging about how he got the five nominees right for best picture as a producer. I think that's the only category that he could vote for yeah um and like it was.
Joseph:Like it was a lottery number.
Jules:Exactly that, that it was sort of a code that he cracked.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:You know I got it right and that was the achievement. The achievement was that I got the ballot correct. Right as opposed to. This is who I nominated my ballot. It was an honor to be part of this membership and it was an honor to be able to spotlight the films that I really thought were the best.
Joseph:That meant something to me.
Jules:yeah, that meant something to me. I don't care if one person saw it or two million people saw it, Right, but it wasn't like that at all. It was, and it would surprise. It certainly surprised me. You know, you have this impression of all Academy voters as being like that. It's a more sort of pure. You know, this is who I thought was the best, who really left an impact on me, Films that left an impact on me. This is what I'm voting for. But there was a member, at least you know, in our class who was very proud about decoding.
Joseph:Having gotten it right as opposed to having gotten you know, a film that I genuinely enjoyed be nominated in Best Picture Right.
Jules:So I won't say that this is something that only pertains to the Critics' Choice Awards. I think it's everywhere, but for some reason at the Critics' Choice Awards it just feels like abundant.
Joseph:Yeah, and I will say that is, you're going to tell me that you've gathered a room full of critics every single year to vote for their best top 10 films. And again, I don't want to pick on any individual critic because I'm sure they all have interesting lists, but you have to explain to me how, year after year, you come up with the same boring list that the Academy is going to end up nominating, you know, almost to a T, with eight to nine or seven spots. There's got to be something wrong in how you're counting votes, because if all those critics are voting their genuine hearts, then we should have all kinds of opinions and we should be seeing a lot of unique choices here, and that's just not the case year after year, right?
Joseph:So that's our kinds of opinions and we should be seeing a lot of unique choices here. Um, and just that's just not the case year after year.
Jules:Right, so that's our issue and you know um, we're going to be posting on our Twitter page. Yeah, Our predictions our predictions, uh, for who we think is going to win at the critics choice awards on Friday?
Joseph:Um, be sure to, checkelia perez should win a lot.
Jules:And if it does not win, right, that's what I was going to say. Uh, but those uh nominees, those predictions, will be on our twitter page. Please feel free to check them out. Um, but you know, in a way, as we were mentioning earlier in this podcast, amelia perez should win this award, because all this controversy happened before or after the the voting block was occurring supposedly. So if emilia paris does not win, that's not going to do anything to sort of uh, quell our worries, that our suspicions, our suspicions, our skepticism that there isn't some sort of behind the scenes kind of okay, listen, we have to get it as right as possible. Em Emilia Perez technically won, but who was number two?
Joseph:It's an inside job, because Emilia Perez is definitely not going to win Best Picture at the Oscars.
Jules:You know it's certainly not going to do much to quell our concerns about that. If Emilia Perez does win, I'll feel better about it because it'll feel more honest to me.
Joseph:I'll tell you this and I've talked about it with you before, but we're not members of the Critics' Choice and let's be upfront about that. But I always find it interesting that when you see Golden Globe predictions, on Gold Derby and Oscar predictions, you're going to see 4,000 people participate, 11,000 people participate, 9,000. When it comes time to predicting the Critics' Choice, there's a lot less participation and my assumption is that people are disbarred from both voting at the Critics' Choice Awards and partaking on that particular award show on Gold.
Jules:Derby On Gold Derby.
Joseph:So that there are a lot of Critics' Choice voters that are also Gold Derby predictors.
Jules:Oh, okay, which again?
Joseph:I think is just awkward.
Jules:Yeah, it's weird to be both. Seems like a conflict of interest. Yeah, yeah, so we'll see what happens. Again, those predictions will be up there. Please check them out. And then we'll get to the other two ceremonies that will be occurring. That are, you know, we're very anxious to see who's going to win those. Traditionally, these are biggies. Yeah, anxious to see who's going to win those. Traditionally, these are biggies.
Joseph:Yeah, so we'll start with the Director's Guild. So you had Jacques Ariard there for Emilia Perez, sean Baker for Onora, edward Berger for Conclave, brady Corbett for the Brutalist and James Mangold for A Complete Unknown all first-time nominees. Important to note here that while voting was going on, it did show that Edward Berger would not be nominated for an Oscar for Conclave. Instead, coralie Fargeau would be for the Substance. The rest overlap of the Academy. That said, ben Affleck, I believe, did win this award in 2012 for Argo, even without that Oscar nomination.
Joseph:So, you know, it doesn't mean that Edward Berger's chances are completely zero.
Jules:Well, you know, you're right. That's a good point. I'm not sure. My gut is that, because he's not nominated at the Oscars, he definitely won't win the DGA. And now that you know again, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the Emilia Perez scandal will affect who should have won this, which I think would have been Jacques Audiard, who was on pace to win, right exactly. And so I think Jacques won't win and that this will have some effect on who wins this award. It won't be Emilia Perez, and I'm going to go with it being Brady Corbett winning for the Brutalist. I think it's an interesting choice, you know. I think that Brady Corbett winning for the Brutalist.
Joseph:I think it's an interesting choice. You know, I think that Brady Corbett is possibly a little young here to win this award.
Jules:That's a good point.
Joseph:I don't think Edward Berger is going to be able to pull off a Ben Affleck. If he did, I would say that Conclave has to be the favorite to win.
Jules:Best Picture.
Joseph:I'm going to say that my gut feeling is that the social media of it all tied with it just breaking a little too late for these first awards, that the Emilia Perez pace is still going to be there for these couple of awards.
Joseph:So I do think Jacques Audillard will end up winning here. After this weekend, what we're going to see is a lot of other guilds and organizations take the opportunity to present different types of winners to the voting branch or the voting members so they can sort of get a feel to oh, what's it like when a complete unknown wins something, or when the Brutalist wins the DGA, as you said, or when a Nora wins the WGA, and that's going to help them sort of cement who they're going to vote for at the end. Because, again, I do think the Amelia Perez fiasco is going to have an effect at the Academy Awards. So if they see a bunch of different films, pick up different little types of awards, they may start to give it to whoever gave the best speech or the most meaningful speech or generated the most enthusiasm online or with other outlets. I think that that may be a factor, but I think these couple of awards are a little too early. So I do think that emilia perez will win at the dga, if I'm wrong, if I'm wrong.
Jules:That's what I say. My spoiler is going to be, as you were saying jacques ardillard for emilia perez, yeah, okay well, so I'm jacques ardillard, I think's still on pace and this came out too late.
Joseph:This fiasco, and then, if I'm wrong, the movie that I'm thinking is in the best position to pick up steam towards an eventual Oscar win for best picture. In my mind is a Nora, and so I think Brady Corbett is an excellent choice, and the whole best division of it all may end up winning out here, but I think the years that Sean Baker has put in and just the fact that that film appeals to everyone appeals to international voters, festival voters, art house voters, mainstream voters, pretty women people, whatever.
Joseph:I do think that it has almost everything it needs. So if Amelia Perez is really struggling here, I would think that a has almost everything it needs. So if Amelia Perez is really struggling here, I would think that Onora would pick it up.
Jules:That's a really good point and a really good spoiler For the Producers Guild Awards. The nominees mimicked the Oscars close about 80%, if I'm not mistaken Right.
Joseph:And the nominees were Onora the Boudalist, a Complete Unknown Conclave Dune, part 2,. Emilia Perez A Real Pain, september 5,. The Substance and Wicked.
Jules:Right, and for the exact same reasons that you just said for Onora, I believe Onora will be winning the Producers Guild Award, even though my spoiler would probably still be Emilia Paris slash Possibly Wicked as being the alternative to Emilia Paris. But right now my gut tells me that, again, the controversy has had an effect already and that the winner for the producers guild awards will be anora I think it's a very interesting choice.
Joseph:Um, I've thought about it myself. I'm still gonna say that emilia perez is on pace to win here and that this uh fiasco again hasn't completely derailed it here. It's gonna need a little bit more time for us to see that effect. So I think amelia perez will win here at the pga. If I had to choose a spoiler, you know, I think there's a very good argument for wicked, but when you think that top gun maverick and barbie weren't able to capitalize here, I do have some hesitation. So instead of going for wicked, I think I'm gonna sort of flip with you.
Joseph:We're flip-flopping here right but I'm gonna say that the best spoiler is the brutalist right, which I think again. There's so much movie there for so little money that I think producers are going to be a little bit enthralled by that that's a good point.
Jules:That's a good point.
Joseph:So I'm gonna go, amelia perez still on pace to win the brutalist as the spoiler okay, um.
Jules:Well, that was our rundown of several uh topics and upcoming uh awards, right, and we'll be seeing what happens. We'll be having our sort of report on what's been occurring, um, over the last several days in our next podcast, right, which should be up later in the week next week yeah and until and until then. This is Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode entitled Cool Cats was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg. Licenses by 3.0.
Joseph:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.