Academy Anonymous
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Join us on our noble (futile! compulsive!) mission to track the contenders, mourn the flop-aroonis, cut-down the winners, champion the over-looked and generally forecast the state of the race with “100% accuracy" (results may vary).
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2024-2025; “Anora” Reigns Supreme After Incredible Award-Winning/Race-Shifting Weekend; Can Anybody Stop It?; Forecasting The BAFTA Award Winners; “Conclave” Do-Or-Die
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- The state of the race after ANORA’s weekend DGA-PGA-Critics-Choice-wins
- Recapping some curious and possibly telling Critics Choice winners
- Why CONCLAVE is likely the only film that can give ANORA some competition
- Predicting the winners of the BAFTA 2025 awards
Hey, welcome back to another episode of Academy Anonymous, I'm Jules. And I'm Joseph, and on this episode, we're going to recap some of the events that happened last weekend, as well as give a forecast as to what we think is going to happen at the BAFTA awards, which are going to take place this weekend.
Joseph:Could be a big deal, could be a very big deal.
Jules:Right, and so the big news out of this past week and weekend was that Anora reigned supreme and won the Critics' Choice Award for Best Picture, which was a big shock because it didn't win anything else Not to me, it was a big shock to me. I think you were seeing that coming.
Joseph:I mentioned that in our last episode that this was the moment for Anora to turn the tide.
Jules:Right and we're going to get into that right now. It also surprised and won the DGA for Best Director and it won the PGA for Best Picture of the Year. I believe that we had predicted Onora to win the Producers Guild Award. I'm kind of happy about that prediction. However, for the Directors Guild Award, I'm pretty sure that I predicted Brady Corbett would win for the Brutalist. How about you? I think you were the, the reverse. I think you said nora for best director.
Joseph:I was on I was the opposite. I thought that sean baker was best positioned to win the dga and that something like wicked, or possibly the brutalist because of how much movie there is there was probably the the prime choice at the producers guild, but obviously in nora won both right was not surprised to see in nora at the critics choice, even though if you watched it live as the night rolled on you started to get a little bit worried that anora was going to walk away just empty-handed, empty-handed, yeah and uh.
Jules:So I'm pretty happy that uh, we at least forecast or at least I was uh forecasted a uh best, uh best picture win at the producers guild award for anora. Um, and the thing about onora that we're going to talk about briefly is that, as we mentioned in our last episode, as you mentioned very astutely, onora is in this perfect position right now as a film that sort of ticks all the boxes and can appeal to a broad enough base post. Uh, the emelia perez debacle. You know, amelia perez kind of had this in the bag. After the 13 nominations it just seemed that that was, you know, the favorite film, um, and that was, uh the most celebrated film, obviously. But anora, after amelia perez went away, and norah just seems like the kind of film that most people can get on board with.
Joseph:It's funny enough, it's dramatic enough, it's entertaining. It's art house, it's international.
Jules:It's political, exactly.
Joseph:It's. You know pop culture at the same time. So I think you're right. You know it. Just it ticks so many of the right boxes.
Jules:Right and enough people are going to see that movie and even if there are some aspects that you're going to be turned off by, depending on who your audience is, there's going to be something in that movie for everyone.
Joseph:Exactly.
Jules:That most people will walk out feeling satisfied with. I do think that has enough political resonance and certainly charming enough, comedic enough, humorous enough, broad enough, broad enough and also profound enough. You know, when we talk about that ending, which is what you're going to leave people with at the end of the film. I think that's the ending of the year. It's the most powerful ending of the year in my opinion and I see its path, especially after these wins. But even before that, you know its path is very plausible to a Best Picture win.
Joseph:I think I had spoken to some degree about this after Oscar nominations, because I did feel that when you look at the nominations as a whole, that the one film that sort of did its job and then some, was something like Anora.
Joseph:When you think that Anora was able to get Sean Baker in as a writer, a director and an editor and it was also able to get Yura in, it's really tough to think of any category that Anora was competitive in and did not get nominated for, I mean, it didn't get nominated for cinematography and they were never going to nominate that film for cinematography, If they did, you I mean it didn't get nine for cinematography and they were never going to nominate that film for cinematography If they did you already know it should be the clear favorite. But among all the nominees, a Complete Unknown is missing. Editing Conclave is missing. Directing the Emilia Perez ship has sunk you know the.
Joseph:Substance is missing. I think editing as well, yeah, supporting actress.
Jules:And so of all the films, the, the film with you know, the most well-rounded game here is technically a Nora right repeating, I think, the nominations of Parasite right and its success in nailing all those nominations, I think speaks to what we're talking about. It's just a film that's going to play well broadly for most members. Either it's going to be at the top of your list or it's going to be somewhere in the middle. Yeah, and in the manner in which they tally up the votes, you know what's going to end up. Matter is consensus.
Jules:Exactly, and so you're going to have a pretty good consensus on that film and so you know I'm not shocked that it's emerged as a favorite. I know online on on film Twitter, the punditry world is shocked. It's not that shocking again when you kind of lay out all the cards and you just see how much is in Onora's favor to sort of go all the way to the Best Picture winner. I will say that, at least for me, I'm pretty happy about this development. I think Onora is by and large one of the best films on this list. It would be more than a worthy winner for Best Picture. So I'm pretty happy about that. I'm pretty happy that we've sort of steered the ship away from a win for, I think, a lesser film like Emilia Perez or something like Wicked. Like you, I was kind of I was sort of afraid that it was going to be the Producers Guild winner. I still think that it stands a great chance at winning the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild Award.
Joseph:So we'll see what happens there. I mean, I really don't know. I mean I would have said the same thing about the Producers Guild Award. If there's any place that's going to reward a behemoth of a money-making giant, I think it would have been the Producers Guild Award. You know, I think it goes to prove our point here. You know, I know you're an enthusiastic champion for Honora. I enjoyed the film quite a bit. It's not my favorite, Sean Baker film.
Joseph:But when I look at this list, despite you know the shortcomings that I find in the film and despite it not being my favorite on the list, it still scores yeah three, four or five for me right so I I think it speaks to again how the movie is enjoyable enough and successful enough to speak to almost everyone yeah, 100.
Jules:And I'll just add as much as I love onora. I also wouldn't say it's my favorite sean baker film, but I do. But I do quite love Onora as well.
Joseph:But I do think that you did hit on. Something that we have to talk about before we start speaking about the other topics of today's episode is I had forecasted that it was too early for the backlash to take complete effect on Amelia Perez.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:And I was clearly wrong. Amelia Perez has swiftly been shown the door, and so I think we're both in consensus now that Amelia Perez, the backlash, the campaign against the film, social media has the, the, the war against the film has been effective.
Jules:Yeah.
Joseph:And I don't think that we or anyone else that's really watching what's unfolding here is really considering Emilia Perez to be a significant player for the big prize anymore.
Jules:Right, 100%, I agree with you. I will posit that, even as we're talking about how well Anora is doing and how, um, how well it's sort of positioned that it uh check marks all these boxes, I do wonder why a film like Conclave couldn't muster this sort of you know general, broad, sort of uh, you know quote, unquote like enough to sort of position itself as a you know runaway favorite.
Jules:Right Because in some ways I feel like it. It does check enough boxes as well. The only thing I can sort of possibly attribute to why it's where it's at right now, which is not as big a player as you and I had anticipated going into this award season, is that maybe it's still too much in the vein of your typical prototypical kind of Oscar fodder film. And where we are right now in culture in film, culture in the Zyggas, you know people want something a little different.
Joseph:I think that may be a factor, but I will say this is that I do. I had mentioned in our previous episode that what we may be seeing in the next few weeks is trying on a bunch of different shoes to see which one appeals most to the Academy.
Joseph:I thought, as I said, that it would be a Nora at the Critics' Choice and at the Directors Guild. It would be Wicked at the Producers Guild, maybe something like A Complete Unknown at the SAG and Conclave at BAFTA. I'm still of the opinion that we're still trying to find out which movie is going to appeal to the Academy best in terms of having them be on that stage for Best Picture. And as far as Conclave goes, I do think that maybe it's a little surprising that it hasn't stepped up in a big way or been spotlighted in a big way yet. It's made money, it's critically acclaimed, it's sort of the topic and sort of the filmmaking that you know.
Joseph:Traditionally these awards bodies would recognize, maybe not so much the critics' choice but the DGA or the PGA and certainly that idea that Edward Berger and sort of some of that creative team or you know some of his creative vision, you know you're not just rewarding Conclave but you're rewarding the immense success of his previous effort, right? So it's not like this is the first time you're being exposed to his kind of cinema and his kind of filmmaking. Now he has two you know, academy award nominated best picture movies under his belt. I mean, is it maybe a factor that you know? Now voters know that he's not really up for best director, so why give him the dga, possibly? I mean, it didn't stop ben affleck, but maybe you know, ben affleck was enough. They don't need to do that all the time. So maybe that's a factor. But if any moment is going to occur for Conclave to turn the tide, it's going to be this weekend.
Jules:And.
Joseph:I think it's going to turn the tide massively and I think what I had initially thought as multiple films, possibly making the argument to win, might devolve into an onora conclave fight at the end yeah, or it might devolve into a onora conclave wicked, if wicked wins the ensemble award, as I think it will win.
Jules:I'm still not 100 positive, but it could. I see what you're saying about a two, a two-way race, but it could. It could devolve into a or evolve into a three-way race, depending on how the SAG goes.
Joseph:It's possible. I question how relevant the SAG is now. I mean, the winners, I think, are so far along into the voting process. I don't think their winners are necessarily going to overlap with the Academy winners because I think by the time Oscar voting closes they're not going to see who the SAG winners were.
Joseph:And, as you saw with the nomination for Jonathan Bailey, where he failed to even get shortlisted at the British Academy, and I believe he is British and certainly he didn't really get any traction at the Academy Awards. I think that there's a with the way that SAG is composed now I think there may be a certain bias, a certain skewing that favors Wicked, that makes it a less reliable source for whether Wicked is a contender or not. But I agree with you If you win a guild, you're automatically in the hunt. Onora has two and it should get the Writer's Guild Award right. Whoever wins the SAG ensemble, which right now my gut says is going to be an aura, I think an aura when the ensemble award. But if it is a complete unknown, if it is wicked, I think they immediately plant a flag. For you know an alternative possibility between conclave and an aura.
Jules:And listen if, if an aura wins best picture at baTA, I think this is oh yeah, it's pretty much done, that's done but I will say I disagree with you a little bit in how, uh you describe the Screen Actors Guild. I think, as of late, they've been almost the best precursor to sort of determine, um, how the academy is feeling about these movies. You know, I just go back to you know, uh, the sag being one of the first indicators that everything, every world at once, was going to win three out of the four. You know, um, uh, acting awards, um, and so I I get your point and I and I agree with you, but I also think, to a certain extent, but I also think, that they actually have established themselves as being, you know, really kind of telling as to how the Academy is going to end up voting for these winners.
Joseph:That's just been my observation as of late, it's true, I mean, I think that's true, but just keep in mind, how many times has that occurred without the PGA backing it up? You know, the pga backed up that everything, everywhere, all at once win that's true so my question is why would the pga ever not give the award to wicked right? What possible logic is there for that?
Jules:well, other than I'm sorry, no, no, I just think. No, I agree with you. Agree with you, it's a very telling move, but I think that that's what's happening with Wicked, that I just don't think it's being considered. You know, quote unquote serious enough to win the award for best film, that there are other contenders on this list that I think pack a bigger punch, have more to say, reach broader with regard to how they communicate their ideas and their themes. I think you know Wicked is missing some of that and that's why it can be a nominee for 10 Oscar nominations and still not win something as the PGA.
Joseph:Yeah, I agree with you and I think you know there's an old adage that you and I talk about which is the best picture winner is really just an advertisement for what the industry wants to see more of in terms of a film and whether it's Parasite or Oppenheimer. You know, I think this is the industry. The Producers Guild win to me is the industry, is the excuse me. To me is the industry sort of saying we want to see more films produced like Onora right, that can go to Cannes.
Joseph:It can still open up in October at the box office and make some money and appeal to a 25-year-old and year old and a 50 year old and a 30 year old right and can be sort of fun and and hip and sexy and edgy and edgy and, at the same time, have something to say politically, socially um, and be also, you know, dramatically, as you were saying profound, yeah, yeah and I also think you know, I think one of the great signs about something like onora becoming the front runner now is that idea that the only reason why sean baker is here knocking at the door right we spoke about it is because sean baker had the door slammed on his face in 2017 for the flor project, you know, and Christopher Nolan wins for Oppenheimer, but that doesn't happen in a vacuum.
Joseph:That happens after you know, movie after movie after movie and a snub and a snub and a surprise nomination and things like that. So it just goes to this idea that right now, maybe industry might be a little bit more welcoming of the idea that let's reward these filmmakers who have sort of the idea that let's reward these filmmakers who have sort of you know, put in these years, paid their dues, put in these years in their industry and are sort of trying to, you know, blaze a trail for certain types of cinema, certain types of filmmaking.
Joseph:And, you know, they've proven themselves both on the artistic front, on the financial front, on the economic front, the financial front on the economic front, the festival front, um, they've proven themselves domestically, globally, internationally. So I think that I think that's a very encouraging sign about anora, which is maybe an easier thing to sort of, I think, champion from from myself than than wicked winning, because you know it, it's more of an industry pattern that feels like a fad right it's a fad, it'll come and it'll go.
Joseph:And Jon M Chu? Unfortunately he just doesn't have the filmography that someone like Sean. Baker has at this point in his career.
Jules:I completely, completely agree. I will say on that note, there were a few other surprise wins that I wasn't expecting in the Critics' Choice, and again we went over our last episode. We're very kind. There were a few other surprise wins that I wasn't expecting in the critics choice and again we went over our last episode. We're very kind of hot and cold with the critics choice. Check that out if you haven't, but I didn't see. I don't think anybody saw. Yeah, john m chu winning best director. That's one of those wins. That's really puzzling.
Joseph:You know, um, you would think you know how does the critics choice come up to the choice of a nora for best picture the most critically acclaimed year and john mchugh for best director? It's an extraordinarily odd choice yeah we can only, I think, attribute that to vote splitting, or I expressed to you an idea, maybe could it be a passion vote for wicked as in.
Jules:Like you know, the votes that wicked was amassing, you know, were so passion-based that it was able to crack that category when you have such denominated, like nine directors, you know, and when each one is taking a little bit away from each other a passion vote like john and chu can make it to the top it could.
Joseph:It could be that that there was vote splitting amongst the other artistic choices and that if you were high on wicked, you were high on it all the way and you were always going to put john m2 at number one. I think it could also be, you know, cynically speaking, the critics choice sort of hedging their bets, which they're known to do with their bradley cooper wins best actor in a thriller, or adventure movie or a comedy movie, or I was.
Joseph:I was thinking about american sniper when he won best actor for an action movie yeah, against whatever sort of real action movies, for a dramatic war piece like american sniper, only because he got an iron for that oscar and they forgot to nominate him for best actor at the critics choice. Um, so it might be a way of them hedging their bets in in terms of like okay, we think onora stands a really good chance of winning, but if it's not onora, I think it could be wicked so let's give it the best director.
Joseph:And the other thing I thought was you know, best director this year is just such a shit show. It's such a shit show in terms of a failure to really have this front runner, because even someone like sean baker, for all the years he's had, he's never really been embraced by the academy right and so this is his first nomination and the number of directors who went on their first nomination are not, you know, very many, and certainly not for the kind of cinema that sean baker sort of pushes 100, and so it's sort of a year without a run runner, and it's really anyone's ball game there, right?
Joseph:And so the only thing I can come up with, too, is that the Critics' Choice sort of said listen, anyone could win. So instead of giving it to who we think is going to win, let's just give it to Jon M Chu for Wicked, who we know is not going to win because he's not nominated.
Jules:I mean, I don't know, possibly, but it's certainly a win that taps into that idea that we were mentioning in our last episode of you know some skepticism we have about you know how the Critics' Choice members choose their winners, how transparent they are with how they choose their winners. Right, you know, if there's any sort of okay, let's go back and let's give it to this movie or performer or filmmaker instead, for whatever reason, because they've gained traction in the Oscar race or they haven't. Whatever, it's certainly a puzzling win, Kind of fishy.
Joseph:It's a little fishy.
Jules:They're known to give wins in a fishy manner.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:That's one of them. Another win I was really surprised by and I think people have to watch out. We have to talk about it.
Jules:Well, I was going to talk about original screenplay that's who I was going to talk about right, and I think that people seriously have to watch out for the substance to uh win possibly, screenplay over sean baker now, I know that sounds nuts, because we're talking about how anora is the favorite and how plausible it is to win Best Picture, and you would think original screenplay is absolutely an award that was the frontrunner in, so if it's now the bona fide frontrunner for the big prize, then why would you take away an award like screenplay?
Jules:Well, the fact that Sean Baker's nominated four times and could win Director and Picture, you know, might make it less enticing for them to feel like they have to give a Nora screenplay as well. And what I really think is interesting is that number one, that Coralie Fargeau, uh, who directed the film, uh, was able to win the Critics' Choice for Best Screenplay. She is a female director and a female writer and if the Academy wants to highlight, as they've been trying to do for the past several years, a female filmmaker in some sort of light, coralie Fargeat is it and her best chance at screenplay.
Jules:It could be Now I will say it's certainly sort of ironic in my opinion, because I tend to think that the screenplay is actually one of the weakest parts, in my opinion, of the substance. The substance winning screenplay and Khan was sort of a head scratcher for some people, for many people you have to take that award for Greta Gerwig.
Joseph:You have to take that award for Greta Gerwig when it won that award.
Jules:It was sort of a head scratcher because you wouldn't think that an award that the substance would win out of all the awards that could have won at con would be screenplay, and lo and behold, here it is nominated for screenplay at the academy awards, where now I think as a dark horse to really win this award. Keep in mind, I think there are going to be voters who are going to be vehemently interested in trying to give a spotlight to a female filmmaker, and this would be the way that they can do that.
Joseph:I think that everything you've said is spot on. I think I'll speak on this further as we go further into the episode, but I think everything that you're saying is going to be a factor, and I'll also go ahead and say again the same way that they're trying to hedge their bets with Wicked and that JonMQ win, it could be them hedging their bets that if there's a dark horse here, maybe it is the substance.
Jules:For what? For picture?
Joseph:For picture I don't know about that all I'm saying is, if you get a screenplay win and you can get an acting win, you're pretty close to that sort of comfortable three area of the three wins that you tend to get you know, I'm thinking of something like uh nomadland, right picture director and an actress right CODA picture screenplay and a supporting actor. So I don't know it is a film about the industry.
Jules:So I don't know. I think that's where we kind of I draw the line. I don't think that's going to happen. I hear where the logic is coming from. It sounds like sound logic. But I think there's so much firsts with this nomination, for these nominations for this film, for the Substance, that considering it being the winner of several Academy Awards, feels like a little bit of a stretch when it's already kind of won the big award which is being able to crack that sort of gatekeeping, that barrier, and be a body horror film nominated for five Academy awards best picture.
Jules:So I don't see it going beyond that, that is the award, so nowhere near best picture win, but I will say that, similar to what you're saying, it does worry me. It does worry me that if the substance were to win for Demi Moore, who's the favorite, and we've been calling that for a while and it were to win for Demi Moore, who's the favorite, and we've been calling that for a while and it were to win Best Makeup, which it seems like an obvious pick, and it were to win Screenplay, that's already three Oscars. That's what I'm saying Right, right.
Jules:But I'm saying that three to me sounds like a lot.
Joseph:Yes.
Jules:So even at that it makes me feel like it should lose one of those, because three for that film, that kind of film seems, you know, just doesn't seem realistic to me.
Joseph:I mean, if Nora's winning the DGA and the PGA, it would seem like a no brainer that it's going to pick up screenplay.
Joseph:And you and I have talked about how Demi Moore as much of a frontrunner as she is, she's always going to have a difficult time against some of her competition, one person in particular. But I think again, you're right that the sort of crashing of the gates is the award for the substance, but someone who's not crashing the gate, who has been there a long time and I'm not sure they've actually won yet Bevan and Fellner Do not underestimate the power of Bevan and Fellner, of people passionately putting in a movie that's not supposed to be there because it's a genre piece, a movie that's an international title, a movie that appeals to Americans and US audiences, a movie that is made for $7 million and makes 75 off that globally, I think and at the same time finally giving an award to Bevan and Fellner. So I know it sounds crazy, but if it is that screenplay movie, then it's not a huge leap to say makeup, screenplay, actress picture there's four.
Jules:Right. Well, I don't know. Like I said, I feel differently, but I hear where you're coming from.
Joseph:Can I just also say, just to play devil's advocate here, how many times has the Critics' Choice winner actually aligned with the Oscar winner for Best Picture? Isn't there a sort of like a curse here, like the Golden Globes, the curse of the Critics' Choice winner, especially when they sort of split and the Best Picture winner is not the Best Director winner?
Jules:We'd have to look into that. I know that for a while they were missing a lot, but as of late, the Best Picture frontrunner has been so obvious that they haven't missed it. So, oppenheimer, everything everywhere all at once, think that well, we know that coda didn't. Yeah, coda didn't win uh, which was surprising when it happened, but it won the pga and it won the ensemble award for uh the sack, so that quickly became an obvious pick as well. Um, and so I think they've been doing pretty, pretty okay. Well, who won in 2020?
Joseph:it wasn't nomadland, wasn't I think it was nomadland was it nomadland yeah, I think it was okay, um, in 2019. I think it was hollywood once upon a time, definitely definitely once upon a time, hollywood 2019.
Jules:But anyway, I feel like last few years they've been pretty accurate, but this year's a little different, as you were saying, you know it's.
Joseph:It seems a little bit more chaotic to play devil's advocate again one more time. I believe that time that once upon a time in Hollywood won the critics choice for best picture and then lost the Oscar, it did not win best director for Tarantino. I think best director might have been a tie between bung john hall and sam mendes was it a tie?
Joseph:I think it was. I think it was. I'd have to research there, so don't hold me to it, but I'm pretty sure it was not quentin right, right, um, so we'll see what that, we'll see where that goes. I just thought that that win was extremely interesting and again I will say another important thing besides amelia, you know, being shown the door and those other titles that surprised there, and Onora winning the big one a complete unknown goose egg that night, you know could be foreshadowing, could not be great news.
Jules:Right. Well, we'll see what happens there, but, as we mentioned at the beginning of this episode, the BAFTA awards are this weekend, so we're going to recap the predictions, our predictions for who's going to win.
Joseph:This is a big award because there's a lot of crossover here between the British Academy and the Academy.
Jules:Right so well, at least very, very recently, because their acting awards just a couple years ago were picked by juries.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:They're acting nominations and so we had a couple years we had at least one year in 2021 where nobody in the best actress field was even nominated Right. So they had lack of success when they were doing those juries. In that sense, even though that was a really cool thing they were doing that, they sort of disbanded this year because they want to be more competitive and they want to be more accurate, I guess, for how the oscar is going to play out. But typically, if you win at the bafta, you're in pretty good shape yeah to really possibly, uh, take it at the oscars as well yeah
Jules:so let's start with uh, from top to bottom. I guess best picture the brutalist um conclave, anora, immediate Paris and a complete unknown Um. I'm going to go ahead and say that conclave is the most nominated film I believe with. Well, with 12 nominations, I think conclave is going to win Best Picture here. Edward Berger's last film, all Quiet on the Western Front, I think, had 14 BAFTA nominations. It won Best Picture. It was definitely really close to possibly beating everything ever all at once. If there was one movie that was going to do it, it was going to be All Quiet on the Western.
Joseph:Front.
Jules:It showed its dominance at the BAFTAs that night. So, yes, I'm a bit skeptical that another Edward Berger film is going to win Best Picture, but I think Conclave this is where it's going to make a splash at the BAFTA. I believe Aquila on the Western Front won seven BAFTAs off of about 14 nominations. As we said, about half. I expect a similar thing here 12 nominations, five to six wins for Conclave is what I'm thinking. What about you?
Joseph:I think that A Complete Unknown is out. I think the Brutalist and Emilio Perez have the international band and if BAFTA voters have been paying attention, onora should be the dark horse here. And I think I want to mention that is that BAFTA voters. I think voting ended on February 11. So they were privy to everything going on with Amelia Perez. That's why I think they're going to dump it, just like the DGA and the PGA did. But they did also see Enora have an excellent Sunday and an excellent Saturday and an excellent Friday, and that may be the tipping point.
Joseph:But I agree with you. I think the winner here is going to be Tessa Ross, point. But I agree with you. I think the winner here is going to be Tessa Ross. Tessa Ross, producer of Conclave, big figure in British cinema and certainly British independent cinema. So I think the only Achilles heel for Conclave is can we really give it to two Edward Berger films back to back two years apart At the same time? There's just such great British talent on here and there's great international talent on here and again, tessa Ross has never really, you know, gotten up on that stage and I think this is the year for her to get up there.
Jules:Okay, I agree 100%. My spoiler would be actually.
Joseph:Onora, me too, and, as I said, I think this may be when we start to solidify the race between these two films, right.
Jules:For Best Director. Edward Berger is nominated again. He won this category in 2022, 2022, 2023. For All Quiet on the Western Front, brady Corbett for the Boudalas, sean Baker for anora, coralie farge for the substance, denis villeneuve for doom part two and jacques odiard for emilia paris. Um, I'm gonna say that sean baker wins this award for anora.
Joseph:I mean, I I think what we're coming from is that edward berger winning two best director awards again back to back just seems so far-fetched. Sean baker is the better choice, jacques out of yard, but emilia perez has been dumped. I'm gonna go ahead and play the under here and I'm gonna say that the winner of this category is going to be coralie forja, and that again, bevin felner, probably a film that with a little bit more time would have crashed that Best Picture. Five Voters now know that she is now in for an Oscar, that's.
Joseph:The other thing is that after voters know who was nominated or not. So an Edward Berger win is a throwaway. A Denevo New win is a throwaway. The backlash that's occurred to Amelia Perez might make it a throwaway. So it's really Corbett, farzad and and sean baker and I understand that anora is certainly the front runner but in terms of work, in terms of something that really appeals to them, because again it's bevin and felner um, and it's an opportunity to highlight, you know, a female filmmaker. I don't know if they've ever had a female filmmaker cross this threshold, have they? I'm not sure, because I I'm not sure if, uh, chloe's always that one. I'd have to check that but I'm pretty sure jane campion won.
Jules:Jane campion did win, yes thank you um, but I'm gonna go with corley fargeant anyway, okay my spoiler is going to be um brady corbett for the brutalist all right, I'll go Corley for Aja and Sean Baker as a spoiler.
Jules:For Best Actress, we have Mary-Anne Jean-Baptiste for Heart Truths so sad that's not actually a reality for the Oscars. Cynthia Erivo for Wicked, saoirse Ronan for the Hour Run At least she got something. That was a beautiful performance by Saoirse that got completely blank this season. Klaus-sophia Gascon, emilia Perez, demi Moore, the Substance, mikey Madison and Nora and this is, I think, the favorite is Demi Moore, certainly For the Substance. I'm going to go with Demi Moore winning. I think that's close to a no-brainer, close to, and I'm going to say that Mikey Madison is the spoiler, but I think there's a big gap between the spoiler and the predicted winner. I think it's Demi Moore all the way.
Joseph:I agree. I think this is Demi Moore's to lose, so Demi Moore for the win. It's hard, because all these other actresses, although they gave great performances, are so far behind in terms of where the campaign stands right now. The only actress I can possibly see upsetting demi more and again, it's so far away is cynthia revo, for wicked right, that was my third.
Jules:That was my third choice, yeah. So um, for best actor, I'm gonna go with oh, so we have adrian brody for the brutalist timothy chalamet, a complete, complete Unknown. Coleman Domingo Sing Sing, sebastian Stan, the Apprentice, hugh Grant Heretic and Ralph Fiennes Conclave. At the beginning, very early on in the year, this seemed like it was going to be Ralph Fiennes' year to sort of just sweep all these awards and finally get the Academy Award nomination that he's been denied for so many years. He's one of our greatest actors. I think this is his fourth nomination, or his third Oscar nomination.
Jules:I think it's his third, Third, zero wins. However, Adrian Brody in the Buddha List is terrific. It's the performance of his life. I think Adrian Brody is definitely winning this. He did not win. Interestingly enough, as we mentioned in a previous episode, he did not win for the Pianist. He actually did not win. Interestingly enough, as we mentioned in a previous episode, he did not win for the pianist. He actually did not win the Golden Globe either, I believe, for the pianist or the Screen Actors Guild. Yeah, so in a way, all those awards bodies are going to feel comfortable giving him the award for their organization, because he actually has never won in those places Exactly. But even at that, when it comes to the Oscars, he has such an amazing performance. I think he absolutely is going to win the Oscar, but leaving that for another day, I think he's going to win here as well Adrian Brody for the Brutalist and my spoilers definitely Ralph Fiennes for Conclave.
Joseph:Well, listen, I think this is the do or die moment for the Ray Fiennes campaign. If they kiss enough babies, I think that he should be able to win this. I think Adrian Brody has to be the favorite and I'm going to go with you. I think Adrian Brody wins, but this is it. This is where the Ray Fiennes campaign they have to win this or the war is over. They have to win this or the war is over. They have to win this battle.
Jules:I agree 100% For supporting actress we have Isabella Rossellini, conclave. Ariana Grande for Wicked, zoe Zaldana, emilia Perez, felicity Jones, the Brutalist. Jamie Lee Curtis, the Last Showgirl. And Selena Gomez Emilia Perez. And the favorite is definitely Zoe Aldana, for Amelia Perez. I think she is going to win this category. Amelia Perez is sinking by the day. However, it's going to win something it's not going to walk down.
Joseph:Can it hold on to? I don't know it's a long time to the Oscars.
Jules:I don't see it winning nothing. This is going to be the perfect place to award Amelia Perez at the Oscars. Win the song.
Joseph:that and song is what I'm saying, I'm saying it's never going to win nothing because there's always best song.
Jules:Still I don't think it's going to I don't think it's going to just win one. In other words, um, I think zoe zaldana is definitely going to win this category in the baftas. She's my pick. My runner-up is actually going to be someone like isabella rosalini. Who who has this European bend to her. I don't think she's been on it for any BAFTAs. I think this is her first BAFTA nomination yeah, I think so.
Jules:And so sort of a career, sort of achievement win is my spoiler for Isabella Rossellini, but again, like Best Actress, big space between my predicted winner and my spoiler.
Joseph:Zoe Zaldana has been able to survive the onslaught against amelia perez. I fear that the race is still a little too far away from the actual, you know, end date, that she may not be able to survive all the way to the oscars. But you know, baptist will go a long way to solidifying the idea that we're going to punish amelia perez, the movie, but we're not going to punish zoe's aldana I. We're not going to punish Zoe Zaldana. I think you're right. Zoe Zaldana is the front runner here and the spoiler. I disagree. I think it's actually Felicity Jones and I do think a world exists where the best actor winner is Ray Fiennes and as a compensation for that Adrian Brody loss, you're going to have Felicity Jones, who again has been working in the British film industry for a while and has a nomination there. So I do think Felicity Jones is by the minute getting closer to stealing this away from Zoe Saldana.
Jules:That's very interesting, okay, but right now we're both predicting Zoe Saldana.
Joseph:Yep All right.
Jules:Supporting actor. This is where I think it's really interesting because, again, we'll see how we feel in the next few weeks, but I tend to think that those three acting categories actor, actress and supporting actress feel very likely the people that the favorites. I think they're very likely not saying that they're slam dunks, but they seem very likely. The one acting category that I think has the most potential to surprise is the best supporting actor category, because the favorite is Kieran Culkin for Real Pain, which did a muster best picture nomination with 10 spots. It's not very often that we see a winner for an acting category not come from a film that wasn't nominated for best picture with 10 spots, so I think that's really handicapping Kieran Culkin.
Jules:All that to say is I'm really unsure that Kieran's going to win the Oscar, but in order for that to become a reality the reality being that he doesn't win someone else has to step up to the plate, and one of these left uh, one of these uh award shows, that is uh left, and the best person to do that is edward norton for complete unknown. It's his fourth oscar nomination. He's playing a real life figure in a complete unknown. It's a very good performance, um, and he's an actor that I think a lot of actors um value, and it's an easy place to award a movie like A Complete Unknown which, as we saw in the Critic's Choice, went completely zero Goose egg.
Jules:If you want to give A Complete Unknown something, this would be the place to do it, or at least one of the few places that is most likely to happen, most possible to happen, rather. So I'm going to say that because I think that's where things are heading, that edward norton is going to end up winning the oscar. I think he needs to uh have a win either here at the sag and I like him having a win more here than having one at the sag um, because uh, I think kieran colkin um is aier name, you know, after Succession with that awards body, the SAG awards body, and actually he's never won a SAG for Succession, an individual SAG. I think that'll help.
Jules:And I think, for the BAFTAs, a real pain is just this small indie. Yes, it has funding, um from foreign entities, um, but it's sort of an american independent film, a small indie film, and you know those don't tend to do great here at the baftas, and so why not give the award to a best a film that they liked enough to not have a best picture, um, an american film, uh, like a complete unknown? This would be the spot. So I'm gonna say edward norton, a complete unknown, is the winner for supporting actor and my uh spoilers. Definitely kira colkin for a real pain.
Joseph:I think a lot of that is is pretty compelling. I think you're just a little bit early. I think that that is something that will likely materialize at the SAG. I still like Kieran Culkin here because it is a production that has a lot of international support, support from Poland. I think it is a small, tiny independent film, but it also has this resonance, I think, with the UK because of sort of the subtext about World War II and the Holocaust in the film, and so I think Kieran Culkin still wins this. And then the dark horse, the spoiler here is Edward Norton.
Jules:All right, Original screenplay. We talked about this. I believe the winner here will be Onora, but the spoiler is definitely the Substance.
Joseph:I think you're right. I agree, onora, for the win, and then the spoiler, the substance. If the substance does win this, I think you're. Yeah, you're right. We're firmly in the territory where corley farzad is gonna upset sean baker for this price, 100 I agree.
Jules:Adapted screenplay I think this one's a little easy too. I think it's definitely conclave and then after that, as a spoiler, it gets a little difficult because everyone has sort of cons in terms of what the BAFTA typically likes. I'm going to say Amelia Perez is still the spoiler, but again, big gap between Conclave and Amelia Perez. Conclave is my choice.
Joseph:I agree. I think it's Conclave. It's really maybe pointless to come up with a second title as a spoiler, but if pressed, I guess I'd have to pick a complete unknown.
Jules:All right Cinematography. I'm going to say that it's the Boudalas. Lowell Crowley is British. I believe this is his first nomination at the BAFTAs.
Joseph:Yeah, it is.
Jules:I think that the Boudalas is going to go far and win the Oscar as well for Best Cinematography, but sticking with the BAFTAs, I believe that the Budalists will win this category and my runner-up is Nosferatu. But again, very far, I feel the same.
Joseph:I feel the same.
Jules:Okay, costume design. I'm going to go Wicked as the winner and my spoiler is going to be I guess Nosferatu yeah, I think I have to agree as well.
Joseph:This should be an easy one for wicked, and nosferatu is a is a good second best film editing.
Jules:Um, we're gonna go with. Um. This one's actually a quite an interesting category because I think either Conclave or Nora could win here again. You see a pattern emerging here either of them could win, but I'm going to say that Conclave wins best film editing and the spoiler is Nora.
Joseph:I agree. I think it helps that the editor for Conclave, I believe, is from the uk and has worked on a lot of uh, uk titles, um, and that, you know, a win for sean baker here on top of screenplay, possibly even director and picture, I think is just overkill. So I think this is conclave and an aura for the spoiler okay, best makeup and hair.
Jules:Um, I think that's an obvious choice for the substance, as the winner and the spoiler is going to be Nosferatu for me.
Joseph:I agree, I agree. I mean I hope that the Substance doesn't creep out voters too much but I think this is the Substance to lose.
Jules:Right, I agree. Production design. I think this is an easy award for Wicked to win. If it doesn't win, my spoiler is the Brutalist.
Joseph:Both good choices. I do think Wicked will win here for Nathan Crowley Again another talent, I think from London. I do wonder if this isn't a great moment to give it to Susie Davis for Conclave. She worked on Saltburn. She was nominated for Mr Turnerer. The buddha is also a great choice, but it's actually a more competitive category than I thought between conclave, nasferatu dune, the buddha list um, I'll go wicked and the spoiler conclave, suzy davis.
Jules:okay, perfect um score, I'm gonna go. Well, this, this, actually this category is really not easy. I certainly think it's between three movies the Boudalas, conclave or Amelia Perez. Had Amelia Perez not nosedived, I would have said Amelia Perez was the favorite here. For score, conclave seems like an obvious choice, but he did win for Aquila and the Western Front rather recently the Boudalas has a very attention calling score, but it's also.
Jules:Conclave seems like an obvious choice, but he did win for Alcuin Western Front rather recently. The Brutalist has a very attention-calling score, but it's also enigmatic in a way, in a way that I don't think it's going to appeal broadly or broadly enough. So you know it's tough, you know I'm going to say, I'm going to say Conclave is the winner and the spoiler is the Brutalist. But again, watch out for any of those three to win here.
Joseph:Because he won so recently. I'm not so thrilled of Conclave winning here. I think Daniel Blumberg is from the UK maybe from London again, so I think that might be an edge here, but I'm going to go ahead and say that this is a prize that Emilia Perez can still win, and so the win to Emilia Perez and the runner up for the Brutalist.
Jules:Very interesting. Best sound design. I'm going to go ahead and say it's between Dune Part 2, wicked and the Substance, and I'm going to give the edge to dune part two. And the spoiler is wicked, I agree. I agree with those best visual effects. I think that better man should do well here. Um, I think it might be surprising. I think most people are going to predict dune part two, but I'm going to go with better man as being the winner for visual effects and and my spoiler is Doom Part 2.
Joseph:That would be massively interesting and I agree with you, I like that. I think Better man here, the Robbie Williams of it all.
Jules:I think Better.
Joseph:Man for visual effects and Doom is a spoiler.
Jules:But I think Better man is going to win here For casting. I really like Conc here for casting. Um, I really like conclave um for casting. I think that that's a very diverse cast in and of itself and again, very well-known actors, um, of all kinds of caliber, right, uh. So I think that that is going to go in its favor. So I'm going to give the prediction to conclave, and the spoiler is anora. I certainly think it's between the two of them. Well, listen.
Joseph:I think that again, here we go again. Conclave and Onora. I think those are two excellent choices. Kneecap has to win something. Kneecap absolutely has to win something. I'm not going to say Kneecap here yet for casting as the winner or the runner-up, but it could get very close. I'm going to go as the winner or the runner-up, but it could get very close. I'm going to go with the winner being Conclave you're right and the spoiler being Onora.
Jules:Right, and in any feature I'm going to go with Flo as my prediction and the wild robot as my spoiler.
Joseph:I agree with that. I think the international appeal of Flo should be able to get it over the hump here.
Jules:Then for children's and family film, a little bit of a weird category for me, um, you know, just in general, I'm thinking this is a weird category to have in your broadcast, um, but I'm going to go with the wild robot being able to get this, this award, and miss the animated feature award. That's my prediction.
Joseph:And the spoilers wallace and gromit vengeance most foul, the I think this is the have your cake and eat it too award. Um. But I think that if flow is winning animated feature, it would make sense to see the wild robot here. But I'm actually gonna go the opposite. I think this is where they're gonna award vengeance most foul. You know they love wallace andom. It was a fantastic film. I think it'll be close, but I'll go Vengeance Most Foul for the win and the Wild Robot for the runner-up.
Jules:Okay for Best Documentary it should be a film that's nominated for the Academy. So that narrows it down to two Northern Land and Black Box Diaries. I think typically if you win this, if you win the BAFTA for Best Documentary, you tend to that tends to carry over to the Academy.
Jules:It's a great bridge Right, so I think that no Other Land is going to win here for Best Documentary and the spoiler is Black Bucks Diaries, I agree For Best Foreign Film, now this one's kind of interesting Yep. I do feel that some of the controversy as to the approach that Emilia Perez took to make that film is going to resonate more for members of the Academy than it is for members of the BAFTA, and so I think.
Jules:Emilia Perez will win this award for Best Foreign Film and I think that the spoiler I'm going to say that the spoiler is I'm still here.
Joseph:Well, listen, I think you may be right about Emilia Perez being able to hold on here, possibly. We know Jacques Gaudiard has been nominated here before Right, so I'll go with Emilia Perez as well. But my spoiler is going to be kneecap. Kneecap has to win something right. Kneecap absolutely has to win something Right cap.
Jules:Kneecap has to win something right. Kneecap absolutely has to win something right. Okay, for best um british film, as you were saying. I predict that. My prediction is that kneecap will win best british film.
Joseph:Well, it's gotta win something yeah it's gotta win something.
Jules:I think this is a perfect place to award it. It's big enough. Uh makes more, it makes sense, and my spoiler is conclave right.
Joseph:Um, yeah, I agree with that. I think, again, kneecap has to win something, right, right. So kneecap for British film makes a lot of sense, unless they give it foreign film. You know, I think Conclave is the runner up here, but I will say you know, if you want to have your cake and eat it too, the British Academy could decide to go on nora for best picture and conclave for british film yeah right, I mean that's one award that all, quite the western front, did not win right, it was british film right so I mean, maybe they want to give tessa ross the lesser of the two prizes.
Joseph:You know, I hope not, but um, it could end up happening that, you know, you get Conclave for British film, nora for best film and Kneecap for foreign film.
Jules:Certainly something that could happen. Interesting so, but you're predicting Kneecap and your spoiler is Conclave. Yeah, I'm going to go with Kneecap and my spoiler being Conclave. Okay, so we agree there. And then the last category that we're predicting is Rising Star.
Joseph:I think this one's a no-brainer, I think voted on by the people, by the public as well.
Jules:Right, I think this one's a no-brainer, I think, voted on by the people, by the public as well, right, um, I think this was a no-brainer. I think Mikey Madison will definitely win this, and then my spoiler is actually going to be uh, david Johnson, wonderful job this year, yeah terrific.
Joseph:Uh well, listen, I think again voted by the public, and you know, when the public votes in mass, sometimes a lot of bad things happen. So I'm actually thinking again this is no knock on the artist. I think all artists are wonderful.
Joseph:I think the winner actually here is going to be Marissa Abella, who at this point in her career has probably been seen a little bit more widely than from British audiences from British audiences than Mikey Madison, and so I think the winner here is Marissa than Mikey Madison, and so I think the winner here is Marissa, and possibly I can say that the spoiler here might be Mikey sure.
Jules:Okay. Well, that's a rundown of the BAFTA predictions. We're going to have it up officially in our Twitter at AcademyAnon, so check that out. They're this weekend. We'll know soon enough because British time and American time they don't overlap very well, so we'll know them pretty quick, and next week we'll be reporting on the events that have transpired.
Joseph:Yeah, we'll see what happens. We have just enough time for a backlash to occur for Nora and Conclave so we'll see what happens this weekend.
Jules:I'm not sure that there is enough time for a backlash, but I certainly think there's enough time for this become, for this to become a, a two head a two headed race.
Joseph:Well, somebody better start looking up the tweets, because I'm sure that there's stuff there. There is enough time for more backlash. There's time for more drama, why not?
Jules:No, no, no, I don't think there's enough time, but whatever the case, I think there is potential, depending on what happens with the BAFTA, for there to be a two-man race here between Onora and Conclave. We'll see what happens. Until then, thanks for joining us on this episode. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and Incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons.
Joseph:Buy forward, slash 3.0 disclaimer the academy anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the academy of motion picture arts and sciences.