Academy Anonymous
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Academy Anonymous
Oscars 2024-2025 Season; Recapping BAFTA/SAG/Indie Spirit Winners; Demi Moore In Serious Trouble; "Conclave" Now The Safer Choice?
On this episode of Academy Anonymous:
- Taking a look at the surprise wins at the Bafta/SAG awards, and what they mean for the race
- Why Demi Moore’s BAFTA loss is a huge RED FLAG
- Can Timothée Chalamet really beat Adrien Brody for that Oscar?
- Discussing the momentum shift towards CONCLAVE, and why it may derail ANORA
Hey, welcome back to Academy Anonymous. This is Jules and I'm Joseph, and on this episode we're going to be retracking what happened the last several days. A lot has happened. Since last we talked, we had the BAFTA winners come out.
Jules:And just this past weekend we had the SAG winners come out as well as the winners from the Independent Spirit Awards, and it's countdown time. We have a week left for the Oscar winners, which is this coming Sunday. Look for our final predictions. They're going to be up by Friday, if not sooner. We'll be getting to that post this episode, but for now we're going to go through what happened at the BAFTAs, what happened at the Independent Spirit Awards, what happened at the SAGs, what we see sort of transpiring so far.
Joseph:Yeah, I mean those are all some pretty important events. I'm thinking especially things like the BAFTA and the Screen Actors Guild Award have a lot of crossover for the Academy, so they could be very telling. Yes, let's start by saying that voting is over. Yes, you know you're not going to be able to see that and then change your vote.
Jules:The voting has been cast already by that time the Screen Actors Guild Awards aired.
Joseph:I don't think that's the case for the BAFTAs. I think voters were able to see the BAFTAs before casting their votes, if they so chose. And I guess, before we get started, let's also say that the momentum a few weeks ago had sort of shifted, correct? Yes, you know, after the nora's implosion towards anora right exactly. Anora seemed like the front runner. It had a critics choice win for best picture. It had a director's guild win for best director and a producer's guild win for best picture.
Jules:Right think a little bit later it would win the Writers Guild?
Jules:I believe I will say that the shift has been towards Conclave. However, you and I and we'll get to this when we talk about the BAFTAs you and I were predicting that the Conclave was going to win the BAFTA. I'm not exactly 100% sure why most people thought that it wouldn't win the BAFTA for Best Film. That seemed like the obvious pick to win the BAFTA the most nominated BAFTA film this year. They like Edward Berger and so that was a little bit apparent to us. I don't think it was as apparent to everybody, and so people were sort of surprised some people that Conclave walked out with the win at the BAFTAs and that that itself represented a little bit of a shift in the race away from a Nora into a other contender like Conclave. However, I would say that what really has shifted, the shift towards Conclave, has been the SAG win for Conclave, because I was expecting you and I were expecting the BAFTA win.
Jules:I wasn't 100% sure that it was going to win the sag ensemble award and so now when we have the bafta winner for best picture being conclave, along with the sag ensemble when being conclave as opposed to a movie like onora, then I think we can justify a legitimate shift exactly towards conclave, exactly.
Joseph:I think that's really well said. You know, onora, onora trounced Amelia Perez with what was an amazing weekend a few weeks ago, but over these past two weekends the momentum has solidified behind Conclave a little bit. We had sort of, I think, maybe brought up this idea in our last podcast that if there was one film that could possibly challenge Onora down the line, it would be Conclave, and so it certainly looks like it's at least running in second now. But let's start breaking it down and talk about what we're seeing.
Jules:Right, I will say something interesting and we'll be talking about this is that in this shift that has made the race seem like it's a two-headed race, with Onora and Conclave being the most possible winners for the Academy Award for Best Picture, there's something interesting, I think, in that Onora represents a sort of consensus pick for a certain group of people because, as we've been going through in some of our episodes, it checks the right boxes.
Jules:For a lot of people it's accessible enough to a point. If you don't like the first half of the film because it's a little racy for you, you're going to like the second half, you're going to laugh and you're going to be moved by that beautiful ending. However, maybe there's something about Onora in that first half, in, you know, sort of its sort of daring nature, that some people feel more comfortable having something like Conclave be a consensus pick. So in a way, we have the battle of the two kinds of consensus picks. You know, some people are going to be more comfortable having that be a Nora and some people who are less comfortable with a Nora and are more comfortable with a safer pick like Conclave being the quote-unquote consensus pick.
Joseph:Right, I think, if you ask me, it's going to break down into what kind of academy we're going to get this year. We're going to get a Coda. Academy, a Green Book Academy in which case we're going to have a Conclave.
Jules:Best Picture win. That's exactly what I mean?
Joseph:Or are we going to have a Parasite Moonlight Academy, in which case we're going to have an Enora Best Picture win It'll be interesting to see what happens, right?
Jules:That's exactly my point, that's exactly what I wanted to say, and so I find that sort of development interesting, right? And so we'll go first with the BAFTA nomination, or the BAFTA winner. Excuse me, and there were a few winners that were surprising to me, not including the Best Picture winner, and there were a few winners that were surprising to me not including the Best Picture winner.
Jules:Yeah, what stood out to you? Okay, so one of the first things that stood out to me was the and I think it stood out to several people was the win in original screenplay for A Real Pain. I certainly thought that that was Anora's for the taking. Even if Anora didn't win Best Picture, it was going to win something like screenplay. Even if Onora didn't win Best Picture, it was going to win something like screenplay.
Jules:To see that A Real Pain was the eventual winner certainly makes me pause, in that you know why wouldn't Onora win that award? If it's, you know, has basically Onora's name engraved on it. I do think Onora will walk out with the. Well, we'll get to that. I just find that interesting, think that that is could be somewhat telling. It could be that there were fans for anora and there were fans for the substance, which is the other film that I think people have to be we've been talking about it, I have to be sort of aware of in that category and they sort of ate at each other's votes a little bit, and that allowed for a movie like A Real Pain to come through, or it could also be that A Real Pain is accessible, it's liked. It's certainly a very beautiful film. It's easy to like that film. In a way it's sort of easy breezy and still very poignant, and so that's a film that I think will appeal to a large base.
Jules:And if anything, that win makes it clear to me that A real pain won't go empty-handed on Academy Awards night. And it also makes it glaringly apparent to me that our initial sort of warning that Edward Norton could trounce someone like Kieran Culkin for the win for supporting actor, given that it's his fourth nomination and he has no uh, he has no win and a complete unknown you would think should win something. Um, it makes it so that I think that's very unlikely and a real pain has to walk out with something. And seeing as a real pain has stiff competition in the original screenplay category because of an aura and the substance it makes the real of real pains win really, at least supporting actor. So that made it clear to me that Kieran Culkin is definitely winning supporting actor. That was clear to me before he just won the SAG. We'll get to that in a minute. Now it's even more clear. But after that win in the BAFTAs I think it was becoming apparent to me that a real pain has to win. Supporting actor for Kieran Culkin.
Joseph:Yeah, I agree, pain has to win. Supporting actor for karen colgan. Yeah, I agree, I think we can't overstate the idea that a real pain was a movie that, I believe, only made it into two bafta long lists. It's only two top 10 baftas in among several categories. It would go on to be nominated for both those categories right supporting actor and original screenplay but then to win those two categories, I think speaks to how popular the film is. Maybe enough people just did not see it, with enough time for it to make that best picture top 10 you and I had said that you know it's been.
Joseph:We couldn't really find an acting winner that was also a screenplay nominee, let alone a winner, a possible winner. That was not a Best Picture movie and so that a real pain missing Best Picture and getting sort of snubbed for something like I'm Still here or something like Nickel Boys sort of spelled that it was a movie that was sort of an also-ran and not going to win any awards.
Jules:Right but.
Joseph:I think that both those wins certainly, as you said, signify that it won't go empty-handed, and probably the best place is supporting actor Kieran Culkin, where he's far ahead. But I also think it speaks to an Onora problem. You know, onora was not a popular choice at the BAFTA at all. And you would think this is the award that it has sort of sealed up. But you know it has now lost the critics' choice, which could be interesting to someone like the Substance, corley Fargeau. It's now lost the BAFTA to a real pain.
Joseph:It's a troubling pattern and the problem is that I'm not sure I can see Sean Baker. I think it's difficult to imagine Sean Baker winning two or three in the same year. So if some people are predicting picture director writer, that's more than Christopher Nolan won last year, right For.
Jules:Oppenheimer Right.
Joseph:You know he would still lose screenplay to american fiction and he didn't have to, you know, lose that category. But it was very evident that they thought, you know, win for producing the film and directing the film was enough.
Jules:And so maybe there's this idea that sean baker will win an award or two, but he he doesn't necessarily have to win three right, I think that's exactly and I I think this pattern again is spelling some serious trouble for Onora in that screenplay category, which is odd considering that it's such a favorite for a Best Picture win. But certainly you know it's spelling some trouble and I would just want to clarify for a moment. You know, when we say that it's very odd to have you know an actor win, uh, an acting award and have that film also be nominated in the screenplay category and not have that be, not have that film show up in a best picture nomination we're referring to, you know, a spot with 10 spots yeah and expand exactly so.
Jules:Kate blanchett won for blue jasmine. Thataffin was nominated for original screenplay. That did not get nine for best picture, but it was not a year of 10 and in all likelihood if they had to fill out uh last spot that year and most likely would have been blue jasmine yeah, mathematically it would have made sense for it to be blue jasmine it would have made perfect sense.
Jules:So in a year of 10, to not have found room for a real pain and have that be the supporting actor winner seemed odd. But after bafta it's clear kieran colkin is winning supporting actor. Yeah, um, a real pain has to work out with something, and do not underestimate a real pain for original screenplay. The uh new introduction to a real pain into this quandary of the substance versus a Nora makes this one of the hardest categories, I think, to predict for the Oscars. Is it going to be the substance, is it going to be a Nora, or is it going to be a real pain?
Joseph:and going back to that original screenplay win for a real pain. You know, I think there's something about the idea here that between the substance, a Nora and a real pain, a real pain sort of sits in this very comfortable spot right. It's certainly not as confrontational or edgy or possibly low brow as a Nora or the substance, and so maybe that's where it's going to sort of try to angle itself for a win.
Jules:Right, and so that's certainly a category to look out, for I'm still not 100% sure what's going to happen there. Another category that we can talk about is what do you think?
Joseph:Well, I mean, let's quickly talk about animated feature. You know we saw British royalty, royalty ardman win this award and you know, after the annie awards, which is the animation guilds, the wild robot essentially swept and won the most awards that night, including best animated feature. It seemed like the wild robot was really getting a lot of sort of wind in its sail and possibly, you know, sort of usurping flow after that really big win at the golden globes. This win for wallace and gromit at the baptists, I don't think we should take too likely. They're not an organization that is always going to feel compelled to give it to the British talent.
Joseph:There's been plenty of times where Aardman has been up for the award and didn't win it. Now I'm not trying to say that Aardman is in a position to win this award, but what I'm trying to say is I think that what may end up happening here is that there is just enough love for something like wallace and gromit. That flow just does not get enough of the votes that it needs to win, and so I think bafta has done a really good job of matching animated feature wins along with the oscar winner for animated feature. They overlap a good deal of the time.
Joseph:Undoubtedly, you know there's probably some bias here when Wallace and Gromit wins both you know, and is also up for British film, but I think this is a bad sign for Flo. You know, I think Flo might end up being something like Flea right, which was nominated several times and didn't win an award.
Joseph:And so I think that that's maybe the sort of sense I'm getting here when I see that Flo does not manage to win one of the awards it's up for and certainly the Wild Robot didn't win any award either but because it's the most successful from a box office point of view other than Inside Out 2, which is a sequel.
Joseph:It doesn't need that support. But imagine if Flo had won here. It would have made it so competitive. But because that wasn't the case, I'm afraid that Flo is just not going to have the votes. And the wild robot? It was a win for Wallace and Gromit, but it was also sort of a win for the Wild Robot.
Jules:I think that's exactly. I think that's a really good point. I think it's significant that Flo couldn't manage a win in this category last year. The Boy and the Heron won here and that was one of the first signs that that was going to win at the Academy Awards. With the foreign appeal that Flo has, it should have done well here. There could be, as you said, some sort of bias towards Wallace and Gromit, the homegrown sort of animation from UK, and I agree with you. I think it's a possibly troubling sign for flow and that that opens up an even bigger space for a movie like the Wild Robot to do well here.
Joseph:Possibly a bigger lead here for A Wild Robot. I think the other category to talk about is also Well.
Jules:I'd like to mention, along with these sort of quote, unquote, ghettoized categories, documentary, exactly exactly that's where I was going, yeah, and I think that was a very interesting win, unexpected and possibly telling and troubling for um, for the, for the favorite, which is no other land, the fact that no other land lost here and a loss to a film that is not nominated for an academy award superman, um, doesn't happen often. It does not happen often, uh, usually you know, as at least a pattern has been, that the, the winner at the uh baftas for documentary, does well at the academy as well, and here they overlooked no other land and it could possibly be indicating that there's some hesitation with regard to the political nature, the political climate currently, that that could have an effect as to that film winning Absolutely.
Joseph:I think BAFTA has been on a streak here in terms of, you know, calling the winner and even when they haven't been on a streak, most of the time you're going to find the winner for the Academy Award somewhere among these five nominees, and that's only Black Box Diaries and no Other Land. So no Other Land, the favorite, or the presumed favorite, still has that going for it. But the idea that they decided not to give it to no Other Land and instead gave it to superman could be a red flag.
Joseph:I will say, from the research I've done, superman is a co-production, so it does have some, some support from the british uh film industry and that may have been a deciding factor, but nonetheless I think that even if that was a deciding factor, it still doesn't get away from the idea that no Other Land is a vulnerable frontrunner.
Jules:Yeah, I agree 100%. I think that we have to be on the lookout for a surprise snub there, for no Other Land.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:Next category that we should go to. I just want to mention, for example, that the Brutalist winning original score I think is a pretty good coup for that film because they've overlapped as of late very well with the Academy. That was a kind of strange category because, you know, technically Conclave could win or we thought Conclave could have won.
Joseph:I thought Amelia Perez might have won Right.
Jules:Conclave could have. But I'm saying for the Academy. Or we thought Conclave could have won. I thought you mean that Perez might have won. Right, I'm saying for the Academy. We thought Conclave was an option, we thought Emilia Perez was an option, we thought the Brutalists was an option. So it's a strange category because more than one person could easily win that category. The BAFTA win for the Brutalists, I think, makes it even more likely that the Brutalists will win that category at the Oscars. I think something it more more, even more likely that the brutalist will win that category at the, at the Oscars.
Joseph:I think you know something else we can sort of talk about a little bit. It's just the idea that despite all the negative press and sort of the downswing the movie is in, I mean the Perez still managed to one to to win foreign language film Right. Um, and this is the same group that sort of called it last year that between Past Lives and the Zone of Interest, they opted for the Zone of Interest. You know, a movie like I'm Still here was nominated alongside.
Joseph:Emilia Perez, and they opted for Emilia Perez. Undoubtedly, you know, after that Best Picture nomination there's been some steam, for I'm Still here, but it looks like, you know, emilia Perez hasn't sort of given up that front front runner position in the foreign language film race yet, right.
Jules:Yeah, and Emilio Perez, we're going to get to that this week as we talk about our Oscar predictions, but it's the most nominated film this year, with 13. I know there's some people in you know film Twitter and film culture who want to see that film get zero wins. But I think that's very unlikely and I think that film is well positioned right now to at least win something like Supporting Actress, song and Foreign Film.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:Which would be 13 nominated film. Nine for 13 awards, it gets three, which is not so bad, you know when you think about a film like Joker. They got nine for 11, one, two. You know. For it to walk out with 3 amidst this sort of chaos and controversy, I think is pretty good Right.
Joseph:I think the other category we can sort of talk about for a minute is also as far as below the line is Sound, where Doom Part 2 did manage to win after being an extremely unpopular Academy Award nominee in a bunch of categories.
Joseph:Right after being an extremely unpopular Academy Award nominee. In a bunch of categories it was more popular at BAFTA than at the Academy, which maybe means that we shouldn't be paying too much attention here. But I was certainly someone who thought that this would have been an easy win for Wicked and that this was sort of Wicked's category to lose, so it's interesting to see Dune pick up this award. I think this is an extremely competitive category at the Oscars between the two musicals, the biography of a musician, and Dune.
Joseph:which is this huge spectacle? But Dune, having won this award already, I think makes it less of a threat at the Oscars. But that it won this BAFTA is no small thing.
Jules:Right, I think that that category, as you were saying, is very interesting. Like original score, there could be several winners that you could see happening in that category Um for um, not really the wild robot at this moment, but I will say that I think I wonder if we could see a win at the Oscars for Dune part two, considering that that film, again as you were saying, performed so poorly. I don't, I'm not sure that I see a film that's nominated for five um Oscar nominations, which is a big downgrade from part one, walking out with two Oscars and I and I and I'm someone who believes that it's pretty firm in the best as the best winner for as the winner for um visual effects yeah so it's kind of hard to fathom that film winning two oscars sound and visual effects and they want it won them both, part one at bafta and, I'm sorry, the oscars.
Jules:So I I sort of wonder if something's going to happen where the sort of musical films do, umicked Emilia Perez and A Complete Unknown sort of eat at each other a bit because they all are so musically inclined, and that that's something that could have happened at BAFTA and that's why Dune walked out with the sound category. However, because I don't see that happening at the Oscars, it's still a mystery to me, in a way, which musical film is going to walk out on top. Could it be a complete unknown and have that be the film's only win? A sound, uh, a sound win, it would make sense.
Jules:So the film doesn't walk out empty handed. Um, even though there's a, there's a possibility that it can win another award. Uh, given what happened at the SAGs and we'll get to that in a minute Is it going to be another win for Wicked, who can count something like production design and costume design as pretty confident wins? Or is it going to be Amelia Parris and have you know, yet another sort of music win, in the sense that music is such an integral part of the sound work in that movie? So it's a little bit bit.
Jules:It's a strange category and it's also one of those categories where I'm not, I'm it's. I can't really foretell right now who's going to win that category you can see a lot of people winning that category potentially.
Joseph:I mean, I will say at bafta dune, part two only be wicked in the sense that the other films nominated are not oscar nominees. So blitz, gladiator 2 and the substance that's. Other films nominated are not Oscar nominees, so Blitz, gladiator 2, and the Substance.
Jules:That's a really good point, yeah.
Joseph:So maybe it just shows that Wicked is weaker.
Jules:Wicked is weaker than Dune, part 2. And amongst the musical-inclined films, exactly.
Joseph:But that Dune Part 2 may very well be a weaker choice or a weaker film when you throw it against either Amelia Perez or a complete unknown Right. So I think that could be something to watch, yeah.
Jules:I think that's a good point. That's a good point, all right. Next, let's talk about one of the biggest wins of the night, which was the win for Mikey Madison for best actress One of Onora's. You know, I don't even want two awards, the other one being casting, so it's the biggest award that I won that night. Actress, um, which was a surprise. Uh, most people had pegged Demi Moore. Um, considering the substance did pretty well there. I will say that I had, uh, mikey Madison as my spoiler. Uh to uh, if it wasn't Demi Moore, it would be Mikey Madison. I believe you had your winner being Demi and your spoiler being Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Well, maybe.
Jules:I think it was either her or Cynthia Erivo Right, and so I think the win for Mikey Madison was pretty big in that. The most important thing to assess out of it is that it's spelling trouble for Demi Moore Exactly Demi Moore.
Joseph:Exactly.
Jules:Demi Moore should have won that category, and that is your first sign, ladies and gentlemen, that Demi Moore is in shaky ground for a best actress win for the Substance.
Jules:I think Mikey Madison certainly pulls a lot of votes when it comes is going to pull votes when it comes to the academy awards. She could certainly pull votes from someone like demi more, but I find it more at least initially I found it more likely that she would be someone that would pull votes from someone like um fernanda torres for I'm still here that the two of them sort of possibly eat at each other's votes, being the alternative choice to Demi Moore. So Demi Moore has, as Kaibu Kanon put it on Twitter the other day, the Hollywood vote and if you're going to deviate from the Hollywood vote, from the Hollywood narrative, then you're going to pick either Fernanda Taurus or Mikey Madison. Fernanda Taurus was obviously not nominated at the BAFTAs and that allowed a win to occur for Mikey Madison, but at the Oscars, where they're both nominated, I initially saw it as a sign that Mikey Madison could eat at votes from Fernanda Torres and that would hurt her from possibly beating out Demi Moore.
Jules:However, upon more consideration, more recollection, even though that's still a possibility, I do think that it's probably more so the case that it's a glaring sign that the Substance is just not something that a broader base is going to feel should win or can win Best Actress.
Jules:We talked about this from the very beginning when we were talking about the Substance, which has had an incredible run and has broken already so many boundaries. So it's hard not to sort of really kind of root for the boundaries it's breaking, regardless of how you feel about the film. But if an international base like the british base, where that film did well, demi more can't win there and someone like mikey madison wins over her, I think it's an indication that even the foreign base is going to have some trouble feeling like they want to give the win to Demi Moore for the substance. And that's a really big issue for Demi Moore because she needs not just the Hollywood vote, she needs a little bit of that extra vote to make it through, I think, and so I think it's a big problem for Demi Moore.
Joseph:I think it certainly spells trouble. Think it's a big problem for jimmy moore. I think it certainly spells trouble. Um, it's a big red flag. Let's put aside the argument for a second that mikey madison, of all people, won this category when the smart money probably had her winning the rising star award. Um, shout out david johnson, who did win that award he gave one of the best speeches of the night and I look forward to his next.
Joseph:I look forward to watching his work in the years to come yeah but anyway, people figured that mikey would win there and someone like demi would win best actress. Let's put aside the argument here that what we saw was the result of maybe some vote splitting. You know, know the passion for possibly having Cynthia Erivo or Marianne Jean-Baptiste be the first black actress to win a BAFTA award, or the idea that Saoirse Ronan is up for an award has never won, and I think she's by her fifth nomination. Putting aside that argument that there's a vote split there, there's just absolutely no reason why mikey madison would win this award for a film that very clearly was just not a super popular choice with bafta right, just casting and actors. Now, between those two awards, it does seem that what the bafta voters may have liked most of all from the movie are the performances, sure, but when you calculate that idea that Demi Moore, you know she's certainly the Hollywood choice and she has the narrative behind her of, you know, having all those years in the industry. But this is a British co-production, yeah, this is a British co-production that showed up in a bunch of categories probably would have been nine for British film had it been eligible was probably close to picture. When you factor in all those things, demi Moore should have been able to sort of muster this win, and the fact that she didn't I think you're right sort of says that the genre bias is going to be very difficult for her to overcome.
Joseph:And so while I think that this sort of showed that if Demi Moore was competing against Mikey Madison for that Oscar she should still feel very comfortable, because Mikey Madison is so new, is such a breakout, and because the film stands a good chance to be awarded in other categories, that it lost at bafta, it's resonated more with, I think, the american section of voters, you know, with those guild ones at the producers guild, the directors guild. But the problem is that at the academy demi moore has to beat fernando torres. That's the big problem, if you ask me right. Is that fernanda torres? Between the performance itself, the movie, the true story that it's based on, between her being a historical figure, between all those things, demi moore absolutely needs every win that she could get, and even then it will be a challenge, and so for to have her lose this award I think is massive Because she's not in a sort of Brendan.
Joseph:Frazier sort of position. Right, brendan Frazier when he loses this award to Austin Butler, right, she doesn't have to beat Austin Butler, in the sense that I don't think she really has to beat Mikey Madison too much. But Brendan Fraser benefited from not having another really strong sort of film or performance there. If anything, you know, the movie to beat Brendan Fraser, the performance to beat Brendan Fraser, was Colin Farrell. And so when Colin Farrell does not win the BAFTA like when Demi Moore doesn't win the BAFTA for the Substance you know and Banshees again should be a movie that the BAFTA voters should be going crazy for. When it doesn't do that, I think it sort of says that it's a higher or a steeper mountain to climb than we had thought. I think the hurdle is significant. I'm not sure that she'll be able to recover from it. Maybe we'll see, but I definitely think it was sort of to me a seismic win for Mikey Madison, and not so much again for the argument of Mikey Madison winning, but the argument for Demi Moore losing.
Jules:Right, I will say just personally. You know it's nice to see someone like Mikey Madison win, because I'm a fan of that performance, but it was a shock, it was an utter shock to not see Demi Moore win. That, despite me having Mikey as my spoiler, I was more than confident that it would be Demi Moore. But I will say that I myself have never forgotten genre bias with regard to Demi Moore. If anything, I just thought wrongly possibly that the Hollywood factor and the Hollywood narrative and the sort of Cinderella narrative, and you know, there's something so attractive and appealing about that. That's probably one of the highlights of this awards season Demi Moore's run for a neglected actress finally getting her dues and her flowers for a film as bold, as you know, um the substance, or or and if you're not a big fan of the substance, uh, I myself have some issues with it it's still so um, interesting and uh, fascinating to see that kind of film break the ranks and make it all the way to where it's made it. Um, I will say I've never forgotten about genre bias. I just thought that that those narratives will pull her, would pull her through to the very end. A la, someone like sandra bullock in the blind side. We mentioned that comparison earlier on um. But if anything, the win was a reminder to me that the hollywood narrative is just not enough, um, and I will say something that is really affecting demi more in this particular scenario, on top of it being genre bias, is that the film itself has very little dialogue, um, and has a lot of you know, sort of internal acting on demi more part. She also shares so much of the movie with Margaret Qualley in a way that sort of like they're kind of co-leads in a way, and so I think factors like that are only hurting her case.
Jules:If you think about the film and you try to isolate instances that feel quote unquote, you know, oscar-y, the Oscar moment, the clip you're definitely going to play at the Academy when it shows up for as a nominee for best actress, it's hard to think of a scene because a lot of it is internal, there's not a lot of dialogue, some of her more quote unquote louder scenes, if we're going to call it that, she's sort of caked in makeup, um, and it's sort of caked in makeup, right, and it's sort of already the disintegration of that character, and so it's really a contender where it's, it's so, outside the mold of what they typically nominate and certainly what they award, that even something like picking a clip is going to be, you know, a little bit strange Right. And again those you know a little bit uh strange Right, and again those you know uh, periphery factors. They're important. There isn't a lot of dialogue in the movie. There is no. There is no big moment you know Oscar-y scene like the way that they like Right, they like that.
Jules:Oh yeah, a lot more subtle. It's a lot more nuanced, and not nuanced in the way where, you know, fernanda torres gives a beautifully nuanced performance and I'm still here, but it's. It's a showy kind of nuance, right. Um, this is not that right so, if anything, I think that is only further hurting her case, right as actors seeing the movie and possibly being very taken or, you know, stirred, or you know just fascinated or maybe even repulsed by what the film is doing as a whole than necessarily taken with Demi Moore's performance in it.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:In a way, some people are going to feel more captivated by having her be a part of the project and what that means, and the symbolism, which can be very potent, more than so. You know them gravitating towards quote unquote the loudness of the performance, because it's not a loud performance at all. So I think factors like that are really hurting her as well.
Joseph:If you put that alongside genre bias, I think we're looking at a serious, serious, serious obstacle for Dem more yeah, and again, I also think that she may just end up being a victim of her circumstances, because if in fifth or in that fifth spot you had angelina jolie or kate winslet or pamela anderson, I think that she could maybe survive this baptist snub with, with the, the main propeller being this hollywood cinderella, you know, attractive narrative you know, I think that the idea of I want to give an award to demi more for all her years in the industry is
Joseph:going to be able to overcome a second win for winslet or jolie for the work that they gave in those particular movies. But the problem is that when you put fernanda torres in there for that particular movie and with that context, it's going to be like I said, she would need to bring her A game and put up the fight of her life, and even then it is going to be extremely tough. And so without that BAFTA win, you're sort of going in there. We'll say it in your B game. You're like you got one hand sort of tied behind your back, right.
Jules:I 100% agree. I'll also say that we talked about it recently, this idea that Sandra Bullock was a good comparison that we used, as I mentioned, but in her year she benefited from number one she was playing a real person and that's something, as we said, that's sort of catnip for the Academy. Fernanda Torres is playing a real person and number two, her competition. So she was going against Meryl Streep, who had already two Oscars, helen Mirren, who had an Oscar, and two actresses that were not, unlike Mikey Madison, breakouts.
Jules:The first time they're being cognizant of this, uh, talented performer being taken with this performance, but because of their newness that affects their possible win, and someone like a megastar like sandra bullock who's finally given her flowers, that narrative pulls through. But the blind side is not the substance exactly. The blind side is much more in the realm of things that are that are going to be accessible for a broader base of the academy, and it's not a film that you're going to see, or at least a portion. You know. I think there are things that are going to be accessible for a broader base of the Academy and it's not a film that you're going to see, or at least a portion. I think there are things that are very wrong with the Blind Side, but a large portion is not going to see something repulsive or going to feel repulsed by that movie.
Jules:There might be a significant portion that's going to feel that way about the substance and so, even though there's a similarity between both of those narratives the Sandra Bullock and the Demi Moore there's pivotal differences this case um, it's unusual to have four acting winners and not have a real, uh, an actor playing a real life figure be amongst the four acting winners, and so that's something we're going to talk about more as we get closer to our final predictions. But this would be a place where they award an actor for playing a real life figure in a very politically timely movie. Um, with important political context, you know this, the best actress category would be the place for them to spotlight a possible real person, possibly in support in best actor, and we'll get to that when we talk about the sags, but we're feeling that it's more likely it's going to be in best actress and that this bafta win is spelling. The likelihood of that happening is great, and so that was, as you were saying, a seismic win for Mikey Madison.
Joseph:Or a seismic loss for Demi Moore. Yeah, I think that's well put.
Jules:That's well put. A seismic win. Either a seismic win for Mikey or a seismic loss for Demi. The other category I thought was interesting was best director. That category is absolutely everywhere. Right, I will say I I do feel that the category is firmly between two directors. In my opinion I don't know if you feel differently that's either going to be the winner of the director's guild award alongside the PGA Sean Baker, sean Baker, sean Baker or it's going to be Brady Corbett, who now has a BAFTA win and a Golden Globe win.
Jules:I want to say, in this particular moment, I'm really feeling Sean Baker winning this. I think it's going to matter that he has films that more filmmakers have seen. I think it's going to matter that filmmakers feel that he's been doing it longer than Brady Corbett and again, just the knowability of his films for a larger section of the Academy compared to Brady Corbett's, and so I think that's going to factor in significantly at the Academy. But Brady Corbett, because of the nature of the film and you know the impression that film leaves and and and sort of, the gargantuan task of the film, you know, is certainly the biggest competition for sean baker, um, and I think it's a paramount reason why he walks out with a win and something like, uh, the baftas and the Globes, and there's certainly a very strong possibility that the Academy, the voter base, is going to feel.
Jules:Well, you know, the Brutalist was just such a humongous task and such a bold film and so large in scope and scale that you know I'm going to vote for it, even if I didn't like the movie that much, which I think is a very important sort of asterisk and I think is the biggest threat to Brady Corbett not winning, because I think once voters at large see that movie, there is going to be a significant portion who are not going to be crazy about it, just by the very sort of enigmatic nature of the film, and so that could lead a significant number of people to say well, you know, in terms of directing, brady corbett stands out to me because of the monumental, uh task of making this film. However, I wasn't crazy about this movie. Um, where are voters gonna fall? Are they gonna fall in? You know, I wasn't crazy about it, but it just stands out so much to me he gets my vote. Or, yes, it was an enormous achievement from a director, but I didn't like it that much, so he doesn't get my vote.
Joseph:I think that there are so many drawbacks to every single nominee, including those two front runners. Again, I'm not sure how many awards I can see Sean Baker winning that night, but even then he's been working for a long time, but the film is such an intimate choice that voters don't tend to make in this category. And brady corbett's movie is, you know jargon gargantuan enough for voters to want to award that for best director. But he's so young and so early in his career that you can't imagine that some voters aren't going to have that in mind. To me, you can sort of split the difference, and I haven't dismissed the idea that someone who's been working as long as sean baker and who's made a movie that most people have admired for how quote-unquote difficult it was to pull off, is jacques oriard, and so I think he's somewhere in the middle. There it's. Some people are going to call it a giant swing of a movie like, uh, like the brutalist, but he's been working as long or longer than Sean Baker, and so I think that those two elements sort of keep him in this race. I just think there's a lot of drawbacks to to both those other contenders. I don't see the sean baker directing job, turning as many heads as the the bang john ho one did for parasite. I think there were more moving parts, um, more that's gonna appeal, for example, to a sound designer or, uh, possibly a visual effects artist, um, so I think, think that may end up being a factor. So we'll see what happens.
Joseph:I think it's interesting that Brady Corbett was able to win there Again. To me, the most interesting thing and we'll talk about this as we talk about the last category is just that Onora did not have a very good night, and so you know, when you see something like Everything Everywhere All At Once, have a poor night here, night right. And so you know, you, when you see something like everything everywhere all at once, have a poor night here, you can still sort of overcome that and have a a bunch of a huge night at the oscars. Is a nora, that movie, I don't know there's going to be some people who are not going to be able to forget that a nora is a film about a stripper and they're not going to be able to have that image erased from front of mind and that that's going to affect how many votes it gets unfortunately.
Joseph:But that leads us to the more conventional film winning the BAFTA Best Picture. Finally getting that win for Tessa Ross. That was Conclave Best Picture, Best British Film, Best Film Editing, right, Right, and Best Adapted Screenplay. We know it should win at least one of those awards. Film editing does not look as competitive a category as other years, so maybe it could win that too. Yeah, Again, just that idea that Conclave. Yes, it won here. It should have won here. At the same time. I don't think Anora should have done so poorly.
Jules:Right, I think that's a really good point. I'll just go back to Best Director for a second. I think something that helps Sean Baker edge out someone like Brady Corbett and again we'll talk about this more when we make our final predictions is that that second half of the film is so crowd-pleasing. You know that that can edge out a sort of enigmatic contender like the Brutalist.
Jules:You know, even if it is a film about a stripper. I think that hurts it. I mean, that's something it's going to have to contend more in a category like best picture than best director. Um and so when you put those two movies, you know, head to head uh, anora and the Brutalist I think that's a factor that could end up helping Anora beat something like the Brutalist, alongside all the other things we've mentioned, the fact that you know it gets into the space that's very comedic, humorous, screwball, uh, crowd pleasing, and then that poignant ending, um, ending. Add to that the other factors we mentioned. I think that's something to consider and to look out for.
Jules:But I 100% agree, conclave should have won this. Onora should not have done as poorly as it did, and that's something that we're going to see Again. I don't think it represented a huge shift in the race that Conclave won. That. What did represent was the Saga voice, which we'll get to see again. I don't think it represented a huge shift in the race that Conclave won. That. What did represent was the Saga Awards, which we'll get to in a minute.
Joseph:Right, and I'll do the research when we talk about our final predictions, but I have to think about the last film that was able to win the Oscar for Best Director without having a nomination below the line. That was not film editing, so I'm thinking about something like Spotlight, for example that loses Best Director to Inari 2, going back to Back of the Revenant.
Joseph:That's a good point, thinking about Coda not even being nominated for Best Director. But the Best Director win didn't go to Drive my Car or Licorice Pizza, it went to Jane Campion, and so I have to really look at how many films that are, again, small enough and intimate enough to win Best Director without having those, you know, some support below the line. That isn't editing. You know, parasite did have that production design nomination.
Jules:Right right.
Joseph:So I do wonder if that's going to be a factor here.
Jules:I think that's a really good point. I hadn't thought about that, but I think that's something we're definitely going to have to do the research before our final predictions, but that's certainly something to look at and consider. Tricky category. Another very tricky category is Best Director. Yeah, but we'll segue now into what just happened last night which was the SAG.
Jules:Awards. No surprise there that Kieran Culkin won. That just further solidifies our point that we made earlier Kieran Culkin is winning Best Supporting Actor. The Edward Norton thing just did not muster, it did not conjure up it didn't materialize, so that's done. Zoe Zaldana is going to win Supporting Actress. I know people have these fantasies about being somebody else. We've always seen as the only possible person that could beat her was someone like um rosalini rosalini because of her career.
Jules:Given that the film is so small, the nomination is the um the award in a way, which is absurd. Um, you know, getting uh is about getting her first nomination at 72 years old, I believe.
Joseph:There's just no one else in the category that can really sort of.
Jules:I will say that, based on some of the articles that have come out about, you know, the famous anonymous Oscar ballot, you know you would probably consider someone like Monica Barbera having more strength, and that makes sense in a way. That film was liked and she's playing a real life figure. She's playing Joan Baez, and maybe it isn't Isabel Rossellini who's a strong number two and it is Monica Barbaro. And yet still the favorite is Zoe Zaldana. She will win the category. That will be one of Emilia Perez, if not Emilia Perez's biggest win.
Jules:It will be supporting actress for Zoe Zaldana.
Joseph:Again, you give the same performance from Monica Barber to an actor who's further along in their career or not, on their first nomination.
Jules:Yeah, possibly.
Joseph:And sure, maybe she can win, even with the limited screen time, against someone like Zoe Zaldana, who you could argue is really a co-leader in her film. But I think that, based on all those anonymous ballot stuff that comes out, the one thing that comes to my mind, for all those voters who do elect for Monica Barbaro to be the winner, is again the idea that we've already hit upon that we'll talk about further as we talk about SAGs and as we prepare our final predictions is just that idea that someone real is going to win someone real should win an award exactly 100.
Joseph:So maybe it's joan bias. It's very unlikely. I still think you're right. This is saldana's to lose and I do not see her losing it yeah, I 100 agree.
Jules:So that's done the interesting things have. Oh well, we'll talk before the two interesting ones. Jimmy warren, demi more, won the sag. That's a big deal. I think it is a big deal, but it just further cements that she has that quote-unquote hollywood vote. She has, uh, she can count with those voters. She's still not going against someone like fernanda torres in that category um. I'm really happy that she won that category um, even if she might not be my personal pick. I'm really happy that she won that category um, even if she might not be my personal pick. I'm really happy because, in the event that she doesn't win the Academy Award right, she can at least count herself as not just an Oscar nominee but a SAG winner, which is no small thing yeah, hell of a run um and another beautiful speech from her.
Jules:We said we mentioned that last night yeah, that if somehow Demi Moore manages a win, which, again, I will be so ecstatically happy for her, despite not being my personal pick in the category A big part of that will be the speeches that she's done, which have been really sincere and-. A highlight really Exactly Humble and really really lovely and really just make you want to vote for her.
Joseph:Exactly, and so. If she wins. You know that it's because people were paying attention to what she said when she got on stage.
Jules:Yeah.
Joseph:People empathize with it excuse me, empathize with it related to it. And if she does, you know, reach the goal line, it was her getting up on stage and delivering those words from her heart.
Jules:that sort of sealed the deal, yeah 100%, and so we'll talk about this more. But she has given a huge fight in this awards campaign, awards season, as evidenced by those really beautiful speeches, and so it will be very interesting to see what happens in the Best Actress category. I'm on pins and needles with regard to it. As we've mentioned, it's going to be close.
Joseph:My head's off to her.
Jules:It's going to be extremely close between Fernanda Torres and Demi Moore.
Joseph:It's going to be a photo finish for sure.
Jules:Absolutely, that's going to be a photo finish for sure, absolutely, and so that's going to be one of the categories that I'm going to be biting my nails to see who the hell wins that category at the end of the day Because, again, she hasn't really beaten. Fernanda Torres.
Joseph:She has won a lot, but she hasn't really ever beaten Fernanda.
Jules:Torres yet.
Joseph:Now I will say you know she's put up one hell of a fight. And Now I will say you know she's put up one hell of a fight. And I think those speeches, as you said, are the cherry on top of everything. Those are good enough, strong enough reasons to vote for her alone. But let's also talk about. You know, this would have been the moment for Mikey Madison. Right, right you know built up some momentum after that I agree.
Joseph:yeah, If she was going to Jennifer Lawrence, her way into a win for Best Actress this would have been the stop.
Jules:I agree with you so.
Joseph:I think that you know. It does demonstrate that Demi Moore is the frontrunner among those competitors. You know again she has yet to beat Fernando Torres. But it also goes to show you that to me it sort of hits the nail on the head that there was absolutely no reason for demi more to lose that bafta right, she should have gotten all four yeah, I agree. Um, so there you go. Good speech, though I agree.
Jules:And the biggest surprise of the night? Well, one of them, I guess, air quotes yeah for me. Well, at least it was a big surprise for me was Timothee Chalamet winning best actor for A Complete Unknown. I believe he's the youngest actor to ever win that SAG award?
Joseph:Oh wow, Is that true? Yes, oh wow.
Jules:And so that was a very big surprise to me. However, I will say that I wish I had seen it coming, and I'll explain why. It would be very odd to have a SAG Awards where the lead actor, where of the four acting winners, let's say, two of them are from films that only mustered one nomination from the SAG committee, which goes to show that those films were appreciated, respected. They weren't loved, you know.
Joseph:Margaret Qualley could have been I brought this up.
Jules:Exactly. Margaret Qualley could certainly have been nominated for the Substance. She was not. Guy Peters and Felicity Jones were obvious picks to get an eye for the supporting categories. They were not. So what was clear was that the SAG committee saw those films and they were okay with them.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And the thing they most wanted to spotlight was Demi Moore and Adrian Brody. And so, in people largely predicting Demi Moore and Adrian Brody being the winners in those categories, you're failing to realize that we shouldn't have a SAG Awards where two actors who are winning are winning, as the films only win nomination. And so I should have seen that coming, and I should have seen that one of them had to lose Adrian Brody and Demi Moore and considering how strong the Demi Moore narrative is, that the one to lose would have been Adrian Brody. However, what I would not have thought was that, in that group, the SAG voters would have said well, let's pick Timothee Chalamet over, for example, ralph Fiennes who has a film that's also nominated for a SAG ensemble.
Jules:It's a Best Picture nominee with eight nominations.
Joseph:He's never won.
Jules:He's been doing this for a very long time. He's one of our greatest actors. Let's throw our support behind him.
Joseph:And if not?
Jules:you would think okay, well, coleman Domingo. He's a very appreciated, respected, loved, beloved actor in that community.
Joseph:Playing an actor.
Jules:He's playing an actor in a way, um, and it's a back-to-back nomination after his nomination for Rustin. And so you would have thought, okay, well, you know, if we don't want to give it to Adrian Brody, because we weren't crazy about the Brutalist, let's give it, let's throw away behind Coleman Domingo. And that was my smart guess as to what would happen in the event that Adrian Brody didn't happen. I wouldn't have thought they would have said no, not Ray Fines. No, not Coleman Domingo. Yes, timothee Chalamet.
Joseph:Yes, all that makes sense. But when you put it in context that a complete unknown really tied for the most nominated film of the year at the sags you know I'm not counting the wicked nomination for stunt or the jonathan bailey nomination, whichever one you want.
Joseph:um, really, because I just that first, there's no stunt category at the Academy, unfortunately not yet, and the Jonathan Bailey nomination came out of absolutely nowhere. So just that idea that it led formidably or tied for that lead, I just think, shows that the film was that liked by the actors and it was, I think, possibly the open spot for it for a reward for that film. Was the actor a race? He's, he is playing the title character.
Jules:Bob Dylan.
Joseph:Right. And uh, I think the only reason why I thought Adrian Brody could win this despite me thinking that it's not a film that's appealing to the actors or that particular organization was because he you know, everyone knows that he won the Oscar for the Pianist without that SAG win. So this was really Adrian Brody's opportunity to win an individual SAG award. I'm not sure he's ever won as an ensemble. I don't know if he was he in Midnight in Paris, I don't know. I don't know.
Jules:He might've won as an ensemble. He was in Midnight in Paris, I think. Yeah, yeah he was he was.
Joseph:He might've won as an ensemble, but it was his first time, first opportunity to win as an individual actor. So for him to have lost it, I think is very significant. And when you look at it, we talk about it sometimes. Sometimes the award, whether it's a SAG award or an Oscar, it doesn't go to the actor and it doesn't go to the youngest actor, Sometimes it just goes to the person you're playing. And so this is a SAG award for Bob Dylan and this could potentially be an Oscar for Bob Dylan, and that may be the deciding factor.
Jules:Right. I think that's a really good point and it goes back to this idea that this film did well at the Academy. It got eight nominations, a complete unknown. A complete unknown, exactly. And the prospect that it's going to walk out with zero wins seems really unlikely to me and that it should land somewhere. And, yes, there's that open spot for a sound where it could. That could be its one win, but if not, then Timothee Chalamet could be a serious, dangerous spoil for someone like Adrian Brody, and we're going to talk about this more, I think, for our final predictions.
Jules:Adrian Brody, one of the biggest tasks that he has an obstacle, rather, that he has to overcome here is possibly there being, despite it being, an incredible performance. I think it's. I'm a huge fan of that performance. It's a beautiful, you know, performance from from Adrian Brody, the performance of his career. Despite all of that, there might be some voters who feel that there's too much of sort of a a conversation happening between both of his wins you know, a win for the pianist, rather, and a win for the buddhist and that he was playing a holocaust survivor holocaust survivor for both films. Um, possibly the work he was doing in between those films aren't memorable enough for the academy to sort of make them feel that they want to give him two oscars for lead, as a lead actor.
Joseph:Remember last time that he won he went up there and he made out with hallie berry. Maybe some people are pissed at that also. I don't think so.
Jules:I don't think that was such a long time ago.
Joseph:You never know.
Jules:But those are obstacles he has to overcome, despite the strength of the performance. You know, I think some voters will remember. You know that there was a sort of similarity.
Jules:I mean light similarity, I would say because I think, you know, the characters are very different and the films are very different. But because I think the characters are very different and the films are very different. But there might be some people who feel, you know, holocaust survivor pianist, holocaust survivor the Buddhist, you know, I want to see him in sort of a different package that's possible and that really, timothee Chalamet and not Ralph Fiennes and not Coleman Domingo, which was a shocker to me is really the person to spoil that win for Adrian Brody, again being propelled more than anything by the fact that he is playing Bob Dylan. It's not really about necessarily the strength of the performance or whatever you think of the performance.
Jules:I think Timothee is very good in that film. It's's not really about the performance, it's about who he's playing. It's a um, it's a film that's sort of signed off by bob dylan, um, so it has his approval. You know, as you were saying, it would be a win for that iconic musician, one of the most iconic musicians of our time, right, um? And yeah, you were going to say something.
Joseph:I mean. Well, it does help, I think, the idea that, unlike someone like Austin Butler for Elvis, this would be the second nomination for Timothee Chalamet and he does have two films up for Best Picture and so something that's certainly going to help beyond the Bob Dylan of it all, is the idea that Timothee Chalamet, you know, has had a career to sort of prove that he's going to win an Oscar at some point.
Joseph:You know he's not going to win an Oscar for playing Bob Dylan again. This would be the one time to give it to him for playing Bob Dylan. Who knows if he's ever going to have a role or I should rather, I should say a biopic role that's going to be as Oscar friendly as as the Bob Dylan character. So I do think it helps that it's not his first nomination.
Joseph:If it was his first nomination, I'd be more comfortable with him losing right now here's what I will say is something that's really going in his favor is that ballots are cast already and so I think there's a chance that he would have been a more compelling choice had voters seen him win that award over Adrian Brody.
Jules:That would have maybe considered it more seriously.
Joseph:At the same time, I don't think that his speech was very good in terms of, you know, the politics of a campaign. I don't know if it's the most empathetic speech or the most moving or emotional speech. It's not a Demi Moore speech that's gonna, you know, sort of close the gap in the goal line, seal the deal, seal the deal. So if there is something in Moore speech that's going to, you know, sort of close the gap in the goal line, seal the deal, seal the deal. So if there is something in the ether that's sort of saying I want a real person to win, I want Bob Dylan to win, whatever.
Joseph:If someone was sort of maybe not that enthused by his speech at the SAGs, you know it's not going to hurt him because, again, ballots were due already. So we'll find out if he does win that oscar. You know, the sag sort of showed that it had been developing and I I would argue that and we had sort of touched upon this in our predictions for the sag awards that you know it had been developing since sag nominations, because when sag nominations show up and it's nominated for anything beyond bob dylan, right, right, it shows how much it's liked. This is a movie that you know they could have snubbed Edward Norton here, like they snubbed Guy Pierce right.
Joseph:You know this isn't a must nominate performance from Edward Norton right, it's a very good performance, but if he's going to lose for this performance anyway, they could have left him off. They could have left him off on Guy Guy Pearce or another fringe contender in, maybe Clarence Macklin, for example. They certainly could have left off Monica Barbaro. They certainly could have left her off.
Joseph:And they don't have to nominate the ensemble. They only really had to nominate Timothee Chalamet, and so the idea that it didn't get two or three but it got four nominations, I think, maybe shows this idea that it's just a film that actors are really responding to, in the sense that, you know, they really respond to this idea of the actor sort of facing this challenge of taking on a real life person. And to that point it won a SAG award. It won a SAG award for actor.
Jules:Right, and I will say that again. The indication of Timothy's strength in this competitive race is going to be not his speech. It's not going to matter His speech. Voting as you said is done. The indication that he's a strong competitor is that he was even able to win this award for best actor, and that was certainly as you were saying. Whatever was in the ether that allowed that to happen was in the ether when they were voting.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And so that is Timothy is the biggest competition now for Adrian Brody, which, again, I would not have pegged. But I will say something that's very important to consider is that Timothy has his own obstacles, is that Timothy has his own obstacles and even if he has on his side that he's playing one of our favorite musicians of all time, the great Bob Dylan, even with that he's very young and the Academy has demonstrated that, unlike the best actors category, they're a little bit not prone Gender bias Exactly they're not prone to giving the Best Actor Award to a young actor, To young men absolutely not.
Jules:You'll see in the Best Actress category. You'll see the Jennifer Lawrences and you'll see the Emma Stones and you'll see the Brie Larson's, but you won't see people like Timothee Chalamet, a 29-year-old, winning that award. In general, it just seems like the academy at large is hesitant to give such a big award to a young male actor, and I think that's a very big thing that he has to fight against, and I'm not sure he can win that battle and certainly a young male actor who's fetishized in popular culture.
Joseph:Right, we're talking about you. Look at when brad pitt and leo dicaprio win. They don't win for their performance as a young, as young men. I'm dicaprio, I don't remember fetishized in popular culture. Right, we're talking about you. Look at when Brad Pitt and Leo DiCaprio win. They don't win for their performance as young men. Dicaprio I don't remember what age he was when he did the Aviator, but he did lose for the Aviator.
Jules:Right, you know, right, after a big gap between what he didn't go for.
Joseph:Finally being able to get nominated again. It was actually only his second nomination. Yeah it was First lead nomination, yeah. Biopic from Marty.
Jules:Still lost. Yeah, so they certainly hold male actors to a higher standard If they're going to give the award to you you tend not to be a young person.
Joseph:We got to do that research for when we do our final predictions Last time that happened.
Jules:That's a very big thing he has to fight against. And now, moving on to the last category, which very big thing he has to fight against. And now, moving on to the last category, which is a SAG award for best ensemble. It went to Conclave. I had Conclave as my number two.
Joseph:But you have a number one.
Jules:I had Wicked as the winner because, in my mind exactly, and I think that's important. I don't think that's something to scoff at. Not a good, not a good day.
Jules:Being the most nominated SAG film, which off not a good, not a good day, being the most nominated sack film, which I think is, in my opinion, a bit overkill. You know, it was hard for me to think that that film would walk out with zero nominations and really that the best place for it to be awarded would have been ensemble, not actress or supporting actress right or supporting actor right, and so I had that as my pick. I did have conclave as my number two. I will say that, yeah, I didn't expect Conclave to win, and this win for Conclave, I think, was the solidification of the momentum shift towards. You know what, anora, not really for me, that much yes to Conclave as being the sort of consensus pick, you know, something we can all agree on, right, and I think that's trouble for I think that's trouble for Anora.
Joseph:I thought Anora would win this, and I think the more I think about it, the more I think that Anora needed to win this. We talked about the idea of which academy is going to show up for.
Jules:Best Picture. Is that going to be?
Joseph:the Coda Green Book Academy, or is it going to show up for Best Picture? Is it going to be?
Jules:the Coda Green Book Academy, or is it going to be the Parasite?
Joseph:Moonlight Academy. Which one's going to show up. Well, we know which SAG showed up, right, we know that Parasite won the SAG award. We know that Moonlight won the SAG award.
Jules:No, it didn't Hidden, figures.
Joseph:Hidden Figures. Oh, you're absolutely right Hidden Figures, hidden.
Jules:Figures. Oh, you're absolutely right, hidden Figures. That was a freaking shock. Yeah, you're right.
Joseph:It's Jordan. I've been, but you're right, hidden Figures did win, so maybe there's a shot that the Moonlight yeah, but I like what you said about Parasite winning. Parasite did win this and I would argue that I think that was the big moment for Parasite, right, because the DGA went for 1917, and I think the Producers Guild, I think they went for 1917.
Jules:You know, what would be interesting for us to research as we make our final predictions is how often does a film overlap with the BAFTA and the SAG and not at?
Joseph:that point in your best picture? Yeah, we have to look that up.
Jules:Because, for example, you brought up a very good example of concrete prevailing at the BAFTAs as opposed to Onora, but possibly Onora being more in the realm of everything everywhere all at once and Onora doing better on Academy Award night. However, everything everywhere all at once won the SAG Award for Ensemble.
Joseph:Yeah, Onora really needed to recuperate that BAFTA loss with a big SAG win. And I'll say you know, it didn't just lose the ensemble, it lost both awards it was up for. So it didn't win anything at the SAGs Three awards yeah you're right it was up for three because Euro was nominated as well, so it lost three awards.
Jules:It didn't win anything.
Joseph:Maybe that's the most disappointing thing, but I really thought that Anora could win this acting award, the ensemble award. Listen, if Anora is too edgy for the SAG ensemble award, isn't it going to be too edgy for the Academy?
Jules:You know, it's certainly something that makes you pause and think and, like I said, conclave overlapping with both the BAFTA and the SAGs is not a good sign for Onora Nope, and, if anything, it spells trouble.
Joseph:That's a good combination.
Jules:We have to research that but I'm pretty sure we're going to see it's a pretty good combination, yeah exactly, and so that is a very big red flag for Onora's possibilities to win Best Picture. So I certainly think it makes it clear, as we were saying earlier on this episode, that it's a race between Conclave or Onora for that Best Picture win, and Onora took a really big hit.
Joseph:And I'll say this again it's too late. Voting has been turned in. Nothing's going to change with the SAG winners, but what matters was the ether. Isabella Rossellini.
Jules:Oh, I'm sorry, I apologize. I thought you were going to say what was in the ether.
Joseph:What was in the ether Is what's important.
Jules:And that led to the conclave win for Besson-Savo.
Joseph:Absolutely. But what I was going to say was Isabella Rossellini, during the ceremony, send her well wishes to Pope Francis, right, right, and so obviously, everything that has occurred with Pope Francis recently, you know. We hope for his speedy recovery. He looks like a good enough person, a decent enough person. So, you know, well wishes to him. But what are the odds, the serendipity that what's occurring now with you know, pope Francis, you know, having some health issues on the cusp of you know conclave, possibly winning best picture, I don't know, I don't know if I believe in I guess what I'm saying is certainly sounds like the kind of thing you can't make up right you know you can sort of I don't know.
Joseph:Yeah, that's an interesting point interesting that of all the time that it's happening now. I just think it's maybe something serendipitous, possibly, yeah yeah, I think that's a good point.
Jules:That's something I hadn't thought of, that neither I hadn't thought of that either.
Joseph:But I mean I can, I can sort of sometimes in the world. You can sort of picture the headlines, both good and bad, happening before you and those headlines happen yeah that's all I'm saying yeah, no, I, I hear what you're saying and it makes sense to me.
Jules:Um, that's an interesting point, and so those were the sag Again, a lot of information, revelations, rather, having occurred in those two ceremonies that are going to really help and also confuse our final predictions, right and so we'll see what happens.
Joseph:Well, let's talk really quickly just about the Spirit Awards, right, exactly?
Jules:I was going to segue there the Spirit Awards.
Joseph:The one good thing that happened to an aura this weekend uh, being crowned sort of the independent film.
Jules:The film that the independent community is most um putting their support behind is an aura at one best film, at one best director and at one best lead performance for mikey madison. I don't think any of those wins are surprises. To be honest, the Brutalist not having done better with nominations was a surprise for some people. It's biggest nomination, I think, was for best director.
Joseph:I'm not sure if Adrian Brody was nominated or not.
Jules:I don't think that he was, and so Sean Baker prevailed there he was sort of the unanimous favorite. I think it's just clear that that is the film that the independent community is supporting.
Joseph:Could be interesting to watch the idea that A Real Pain, as you said, won that Screenplay Award Right and or was not nominated, I believe, for Screenplay at the Press Award Awards.
Jules:Neither was a substance, but again, just that idea that people really do enjoy the screenplay for A Real Pain Right. People really do enjoy the screenplay for a real pain, right, and it's a hard film to not like, to be honest in my opinion, and so that was not very revealing. No, what else? We had Best first feature going to DD and best first screenplay also going to DD, and best breakthrough performance being Maisie.
Joseph:Maisie Did a great job Right?
Jules:She did a really beautiful job in my Old Ass. She won the Critics' Choice, I think too for Young Performer.
Joseph:So she did a fantastic job on that film.
Jules:Yeah, she was really beautiful in that movie and what else. We have foreign film Go to Flow. Yeah, which was interesting. You know, it kind of confuses this space as to, you know, animated feature you know, is flow going to be able to muster enough support? It seems like it has support from the independence, but from the from the independent community. Does it have the support from the foreign base? Well, same thing with an aura. An aura has a support from the independent film community but does it. Have it as a broader base for the international community.
Joseph:No, have it as a broader base for the international community. Now I will say Flo won that award, but it did not beat Amila Perez not nominated Right and it did not beat.
Jules:I'm Still here which I don't believe was nominated either.
Joseph:I thought that award would go to Mike Lee for Heart Troops. Unfortunately it didn't, but Flo. Very cool choice as well, so it's nice to see it win something at the same time. It didn't really face any of its strongest adversaries.
Jules:Right Uh, Nickel Boys won cinematography.
Joseph:Yeah, that was very nice to see. That was very nice for John.
Jules:Um, uh, unfortunately that was not nominated for an Academy Award, but it wasn't a surprise for us that it wasn't going to be nominated, right, of course?
Joseph:we had been saying that for a while. September 5th.
Jules:September 5th, Best Editing.
Joseph:That's another good one. That's pretty cool to see. That's another good one.
Jules:Yeah, I think the editing was really sort of forgotten in that movie.
Joseph:Had it been 9 for Picture, I would have told you yeah, it's going to be Picture, screenplay and Editing Right exactly.
Jules:It's kind of weird that that film didn't do better in editing, because there's a lot of editing in the movie.
Joseph:That's just Paramount shooting its movies in the foot Right um what else? Well, girls will be girls. I think one uh cassavetes award really like that film as a really beautiful film.
Jules:Great category about that. Yeah, that's a really great category um history.
Joseph:Daughters was winning the robert alvin award, which was nice to see. I really love that movie as well.
Jules:Fantastic yeah, um what else I think that's it I think those were the main uh takeaways, but again, the biggest takeaway being that Onora has a support Is this sort of unanimous choice and that's not a surprise. Yeah, I think what's something that's more surprising to me is that and again, right now I'm really just basing it off mostly the BAFTA but that I would think that Onora would have had still a stronger international support, considering that it's the Palme d'Or winner.
Jules:And so in a way that's interesting to me to see, that it possibly is a vulnerable spot in its campaign because it won the biggest award that you could possibly win, possibly, some would say, in cinema, but certainly international cinema Right, and it's kind of the opposite of Parasite, which you know had a tremendous amount of support from the international cinema and somehow sort of broke into this sort of quote unquote, click this bubble of the Academy Right and mustered a win. And Orr is the opposite. It's sort of a film that is doing well for americans and the independent community, um, uh, the producers guild, the directors guild, but doing a little bit more flawed, you know, uh, having more problems outside of that bubble right as as of right now, yes, but I will say again, if you look at the bafta nominations, that god, that was a great day for its nominations.
Joseph:Yeah and you know I think we talked about it. You know that is a pretty big prize for cinema, and so I'm sure it's going to have its international fans if it wins, you could argue, possibly, that it was the international fans that might have made the difference right the people who have such esteem for the Palme d'Or winner.
Joseph:At the same time, I've always been of the opinion the entire year that our Palme d'Or automatic spot in the top 10 was sort of complicated by the idea that it was the rare English language American film to win the Palme d'Or Right American film to win the. Palme d'Or Right, and so then it didn't really shock me too much to think that, oh well, Amelia Perez has all of a sudden sucked up all this energy because it is at least a foreign language film that competed for the Palme d'Or Right.
Joseph:Same deal with the Substance, where, yes, it is an English language film as well, but it's such a large international co-production right with the french director and uk support and us support. That you know. I it's again this.
Jules:I a more comfortable idea of a palm duer winner, right, right, and so that's that's sort of interesting to me, sort of, you know, kind of ironic. Yeah, um, and so that was our rundown of the biggest ceremonies that just have happened over the last several days the BAFTA winners, the SAG winners and the Independent Spirit Award winners. Coming up quick is going to be our final predictions for the Academy Awards. Those episodes will be up by the end of the week.
Joseph:Might do a couple of those yeah we'll do possibly a couple of those.
Jules:It's a lot to go through, it's a lot to talk about. Um, we're going to try to do every category right exactly. We'll do every category, what we're seeing and who our final predictions are. And, of course, we'll be posting our very final final predictions on our twitter at academy anon. Please follow us, um, and you know, I think it's going to be to the very end. We're going to to be scratching our heads wondering, you know, could this happen, could this not happen In certain categories?
Jules:many of which we've mentioned today on this episode. So we look forward to that. We'll have those episodes up by the end of the week and, as always, it's been a pleasure. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph. See you next time. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0 http//creativecommonsorg. Licenses buy 3.0.
Joseph:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.