Academy Anonymous
An invaluable, unparalleled and only partly-delusional resource for any cinephiles and Oscar-addicts forever obsessing about whether their favorite films, performances and artists will survive another grueling Oscar season.
Join us on our noble (futile! compulsive!) mission to track the contenders, mourn the flop-aroonis, cut-down the winners, champion the over-looked and generally forecast the state of the race with “100% accuracy" (results may vary).
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions for Oscar Night, Part 1; Will the Academy spread the wealth or can box-office champ "Wicked" feast on craft categories; "Emilia Perez" flirting with a shut-out; Brazil and Latvia chase Oscar History
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- BAFTA awards stall FLOW’s momentum, Latvia likely to fall short of historic win in Animated Feature
- Dreamworks Animation to ride studio-best 3 Oscar nominations into first Animated Feature win in nearly two decades
- Brazil to make OSCAR HISTORY - surging I'M STILL HERE poised to upset EMILIA PEREZ and capture first International Film title for the country
- Netflix’s EMILIA PEREZ wrestles to maintain hold as International Film favorite, can the film survive Mexican controversy and growing unpopularity?
- Does BAFTA snub foretell of trouble for NO OTHER LAND at the Oscars?
- With win at DGA, can PORCELAIN WAR upset in Documentary and result in a three-peat for the Ukrainian War in the category?
- DUNE: PART TWO still favorite for VFX Oscar with BAFTA win, but Visual Effects Society snub leaves the door open for WICKED
- DUNE: PART TWO vs. A COMPLETE UNKNOWN vs. WICKED - a three-headed monster in SOUND makes it nearly impossible to select a favorite
- Cratering EMILIA PEREZ tries to salvage Original Song win, but Diane “Never-Say-Die” Warren might just deliver the death blow
- THE SUBSTANCE the clear front-runner for Makeup Oscar, but can a win give Demi Moore an edge in Best Actress?
- WICKED's Paul Tazewell to makes OSCAR HISTORY as first black man and only second black costume designer to win Costume. Nathan Crowley to FINALLY win Production Design (without Christopher Nolan)!
- An absolute free-for-all in Film Editing - BAFTA win for CONCLAVE either a mirage or the win that seals its fate on Oscar night!
- Can Sean Baker get on stage four times on Oscar night?
- Will EMILIA PEREZ and WICKED cancel each other out or ride their Sound nominations to a surprise victory in Film Editing?
Hey, welcome back to Academy, anonymous, I'm Jules. And I'm Joseph and on this episode, the long-awaited episode, we're going to be tackling our final Oscar predictions. It's been a bumpy road. It's been a bumpy road. It's been a chaotic season. I'm looking forward to sort of wrapping it up in a way.
Joseph:It's fun there's not going to be any Oppenheimer sweep this year. So that's a question mark on a good number of categories.
Jules:There's a few categories that are, you know, very puzzling at the moment. Anyone could win, or rather between the two or three people who are leading the pack any one of those could win. And, um, I think there's some popular categories that are extremely up in the air. Um, so it might. It's going to be very exciting to find out what happens.
Jules:The part of you just wants to just already know you know what the what the result is, but okay, so we're going to start our final predictions and we're going to start with the category of best documentary feature. The nominees are Black Box, sugarcane, northern Land, porcelain War and Soundtrack to a Coup de Top. I would say that the favorite in this category currently is Northern Land. Um, surprisingly so, it did lose the BAfta um a couple couple days, a couple weekends ago, and that was surprising that it went to superman instead. Um, superman was actually the winner of the producers guild award for documentary, and the last time there was that potent combination between a BAFTA win and a Producers Guild win was my Octopus Teacher Right, which won.
Jules:Which ended up winning and was a surprise for many people when it won. The thing that's benefiting Northern Land in this moment is that Superman is not nominated. Yeah. Would it have been nominated? I think it would have been a huge spoiler to steal the spot, or maybe the favorite, probably Possibly, but it would have been a huge spoiler at least to steal the spot from Northern Land, considering that that film is not there. We looked at the International Documentary Association as well as the Cinema Eye Honors. Right.
Jules:Two important institutions that are good to look at for documentaries when you're trying to predict the winner for the Documentary Feature Award at the Oscars, and no Other Land won both feature prizes in those two organizations. The last time that a documentary won both the International Documentary Association as well as the Cinema Eye Honors Award for Best Feature and did not win the Oscar was we went back to 2010 and there were only three films that come up All that Breathes, Flee and the Look of Silence, and so suffice it to say that that's a pretty good combination to win those two awards. It is surprising that the film was not nominated for a Director's Guild Award and was not nominated for a Producer's Guild Award.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And that would point to some confusion on my part. I wonder why it wasn't included in those categories. I wonder if the fact that the film doesn't have a distributor had an important part to play in having it snubbed in those groups.
Jules:I think because it doesn't have a distributor, it might not have had sort of that dedicated campaign to maybe get those nominations yeah exactly, but I want to say that right now, the timeliness of this documentary is going to make it a very popular choice amongst voters. There is a part of me that wonders, after all the upheaval of Jonathan Glazer's speech last year at the Oscars.
Jules:If there's a section of the Academy that would rather not touch this. Really, you know timely conflict and political situation that's going on in our world. But I think that the desire to spotlight this conflict in a really powerful manner is going to trump that sort of hesitation and that it's going to be a spotlight for the film, hopefully in it winning the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature. It helps it to be a spotlight for the film, hopefully in it winning the Academy Award for Best Documentary Feature. It helps it solidify a distributor so it can come out here in the United States. And I think, again, the timeliness of the topic makes it a very compelling choice for voters and, in the absence of a film like Superman, to steal votes from it. I think that it's a safe winner here.
Jules:I think the Academy and the documentary section, the documentary category likes to go for timeliness topics.
Jules:I would say that the last two years we've sort of been the winners have been related to the Ukraine, the Ukraine war that's going on. We had in 2022, navalny won. Just last year, we had 20 Days of Maripool, and so one film that's in this category that I think stands to be the best possible option as a threat to Northern Ireland would be Porcelain War, but again, that's dealing with the Ukraine conflict and the Academy has the last two. That's dealing with the Ukraine conflict and the Academy has the last two years spotlighted the Ukraine conflict. I think they're going to really want to spotlight the Israel-Palestine conflict at this moment rather than keeping on with that Ukraine trend. So I'm going to say right now that my prediction for this category is going to be no other land. I will also point out that, even though no Other Land did not get a DGA nomination and Porcelain War won the DGA award for best documentary feature, I will say that you know, the DGA is a little bit spotty.
Joseph:The DJ is a little bit spotty. The last 13 years they've gotten about half right. So the fact that and how the academy may opt to not touch it at this moment, but there are so many people within the academy that are very passionate about the issue until the swinton was speaking about it the other day and just with recent announcements in terms of how the united states is going to, you know, handle the whole cause of conflict I can only imagine that adding fuel to the fire.
Joseph:So I definitely think you're right. I would agree that's the favorite and I think it would be the smart prediction. I will say that there's a film sort of in between that to me wouldn't be that surprising if it did pull a surprise win, which is Sugarcane. I remember last year when Kills of the Flower Moon sort of put a spotlight on indigenous people. That film walked away with zero and.
Joseph:Sugarcane is possibly a way to sort of put a spotlight again on the issue that indigenous communities have faced throughout the world and certainly here in North America. So I would not be surprised if, at the end, something that they're more comfortable talking about and that they're going to feel is certainly worthy of that spotlight is possibly sugarcane.
Jules:That's a really good point. I'm going to say right now that my spoiler is actually going to be Porcelain War. I really like that Dga one. The dga one is big and it's won a few um audience awards along the way, so it's somewhat of a crowd pleaser, if you can even call it that um, and so I'm gonna say that that's my spoiler.
Joseph:You're gonna say that it's sugarcane I'm gonna say you're right, I'm gonna go with no other land for the win, and then my spoiler is gonna be sugarcane okay perfect.
Jules:Okay, now let's move on to the category of best international film. That's a really fascinating, very interesting category category.
Joseph:Uh well, let me let me start by saying who the nominees were. The nominees were emilia perez from france. Flow from latvia first time that country's nominated. The girl with the needle from denmark I'm still here from brazil.
Jules:And the seed of the sacred fig from germany, although that film, as we all know, is, you know, made in iran, submitted by germany right, and so I would say that initially, or just canvassing the category, the two films that I think stand the best chance of winning this category are the two films that are also that also happen to be not in for Best Picture, which is From Brazil I'm Still here and From France In the Appairs. This category very much favors a film if it's not in for Best Picture.
Joseph:First time, I think, we have two of those in Best Picture, I think.
Jules:That's the interesting case here, that we have two options that we can go with A late-breaking I'm still here passion vote, which resulted in getting a Best Picture nomination at the last minute, and Amelia Perez, which started out this sort of campaigns run, being at the very top of the pile, the must-award Sort of the de facto favorite after sort of had that huge sort of surge into the race exactly and having pretty much kind of a nosedive after the controversy of carlos sofia gascon and also uh leading up to that controversy, the yeah, you know how upset audiences have been with uh representation in the movie and the people behind the film, the makers of the film, exactly.
Joseph:So the first initial controversy was just sort of you know it, just sort of fueled into all these other controversies which essentially sort of imploded the movie by now Exactly.
Jules:I will say that one of the very we're on a trend of the BAFTA winner for best international film being pretty spot on with the Academy. From last year to 2017, they've gotten all the winners correct. So the BAFTA if you won the BAFTA, you pretty much won the Oscar. Then it gets shoddy from 2017 down. We went all the way back to 2000. And there are several years where they depart from the um Academy and, interestingly enough, most of the years when they uh have different winners.
Jules:A trend is that they typically only have one nominee in common amongst the five BAFTA nominees and the Oscar nominees, one or two nominees in common, which is pretty low, um, and whenever they've had more than two, so three or more nominees in common the BAFTA nominees and the Oscar nominees they tend to have the right winner. And that's interesting because this year they do have three in common. They have um I'm still here this year the sacred fig and Amelia Paris. Um, they Year the Sacred Fig and Amelia Pears. They don't have the Girl with the Needle or Flow, and so, going off of that pattern, it would seem as though Amelia Pears should win this category, right, I think, as you were saying before, sort of blew up in everyone's face. You know it was going to be the winner in this category.
Joseph:This was an easy category for it to win the most nominated foreign language film ever.
Jules:Now I do think that the stats are in Emilia Perez's favor, but my gut is telling me that the late break passion for I'm Still here is going to nab it the win in this category, and if it does so, I'm predicting it will become brazil's. It will be brazil's first foreign language film. Yeah, something else we've noticed as a trend in this category is this category tends to favor, um, those kinds of firsts at least lately they have I mean the zone of interest was a first time win for the united kingdom eda first time win for poland right
Joseph:uh, even Even Roma was actually the first win in this category, I believe for Mexico, correct, and so, yeah, we've been seeing that trend. It doesn't always happen, but it's been a pretty sustained energy Parasite. For example, another Best Picture nominee that was the first win for South Korea in this category, so that might play into what breaks the tie between both those films exactly, and the last time that france won this category has been a while I believe it was 2015 for mustang no, that was the last time they were nominated oh, a decade ago, basically a decade ago, was the last time they were nominated for mustang right which, uh, france submission, uh, but a turkish?
Joseph:um, they lost that year, right. So I think the last time they actually won was 1992.
Jules:Handolshin.
Joseph:Exactly A film that also garnered Catherine Deneuve a nomination for Best Actress. They won that category, they won that year, 1992, but they haven't won since then. And you know, we know that they were nominated for things like Amelie and we also know they had this huge dry spell which Amelia Perez sort of broke again a decade after Mustang. Right.
Joseph:Right. So it was a big achievement for them to be nominated. It would be a big achievement for them to win after so many years yeah. But I'm not sure that eclipses the idea of Brazil winning for the first time ever. I think Brazil's only been nominated five times and we know, for example, thatter saez brought a film to be nominated from brazil as well for central station right he lost that award right and, interestingly enough, there's an interesting parallel there, because jacques odiard, you know, got france nominated for a profit in 2009, and so they're kind of almost tied in that sense, as two really established, celebrated filmmakers that now have their second nominations in this category.
Joseph:Granted, you know, the other nomination for Jacques Audiard is a film set in Mexico, with Spanish and English and no French whatsoever.
Jules:Yeah, and I think this is a category where the issues that people have had pre-Carlo Sofia Gascon controversy of the filmmakers behind the film, and authenticity towards Mexican culture, towards the trans experience I think this is the category where we're really going to see the fallout of all of that. I think so, yeah, and that's going to have a big. That's going to be a big reason why the film loses this category. Right, I think what would have helped is if the film had that win in its sales, where it was the best picture possible, favorite, riding off high of 13 nominations. Maybe the overall base of the Academy could have overlooked that, possibly, but considering circumstances, if anything, I think those issues are going to resurface in a lot of voters' minds and is going to take away votes from Amelia Perez and give them to. I'm Still here.
Joseph:Which is unfortunate for their campaign, because this has been one of the few awards that they've been sort of able to hold on to.
Joseph:Even throughout sort of the downward swing of the movie. They've been able to sort of hold on to this and Zoe, but this is really, I think, becoming questionable. I mean back to your point about how the initial controversy in and of itself about the authenticity of the film might be a major factor. Here. We're talking about a category that, as I said a little while ago, finally recognized the first Mexican entry here in. Roma.
Joseph:Are they really going to want to give the second film, I think set in Mexico, the foreign language Oscar for a country that is not Mexico? And you talk about the trans issue? Well, this category was the first one to give the award to a fantastic woman in 2017. Yeah, so I think authenticity is going to be an important factor here.
Jules:I agree 100%, and so that's why I'm predicting that it's going to be Brazil that wins this category. I'm still here. I think Brazilians are going to be ecstatic with that win, oh my goodness. And my spoiler would be probably Emilio Perez, because of its sweep prior to all this. You know controversy occurring, that would be my spoiler, but I feel pretty confident right now, predicting I'm still here as the winner. What about you?
Joseph:I agree with you. I think all the math is pointing to and I'm still here upset, and Emilio Perez is probably the spoiler here.
Jules:Correct, perfect. Okay, let's jump into animated feature. The nominees are Flow, wallace and Gromit. Vengeance Most Foul Inside Out 2, memoir of a Snail and the Wild Robot.
Joseph:Well, it's been sort of an interesting race right. I mean, the critical darling of the year was sort of Flow. Yeah.
Joseph:We've had great entries from other countries, including Australia's as member of a snail, but sort of it was flow that sort of captured all that energy from the critic circles, um, and then it sort of really got a huge sort of headwind when it won that golden globe, which was major, um, but unfortunately kind of has slowed down a little bit.
Joseph:And I think the wild robot, which was a huge box office success nothing like inside out 2, but still an extraordinary success financially, sort of found its footing in the race right, winning major awards through a number of guilds, getting a bunch of anti-nominations, not being nominated exactly where it needed to be, um, and then, as the wild robot was sort of you know holding, you know starting to gather steam in the race, flow, unfortunately, I think, had a major misstep when at the BAFTAs, where it was nominated twice I believe it lost to Wallace and Gromit, which was nominated three times, and it won two of those awards, including animated film, and I think that was a bad sign. I think it was a bad sign in particular for Flow. I think that was something that Flow really needed to capitalize on. So for a large part part the discussion has sort of been about those two films, the wild robot versus flow.
Joseph:again lafayette's first nomination, the animated field, you know ever yeah and sort of the more artistic bend of a film from janice. But I think, unfortunately, without the supportFTA, without sort of a more unanimous international support, that you're going to see flow unfortunately fall short Because there are going to be lovers of the Australian film industry that are going to vote for Memoir of a Snail. We know that. Yeah, yeah.
Joseph:There's going to be lovers of the British film industry that are going to vote for Wallace and Gromit, for waltz and gromit, and then anyone who's a fan of the american industry, which is sort of the bigger footprint, is either going to go to inside out or the wild robot, and more likely the wild robot, because inside out 2 is a sequel right and I don't think that pixar has been very successful at, or disney very successful at sort of bridging the gap and having a sequel win. A lot of people have been discussing the idea that flow is gonna fall on the steps of the boy in the heron, but I do think that the boy in the heron one of the reasons why it sort of captured that award.
Joseph:A big reason is because it did win that BAFTA. It had the BAFTA and the Globe win whereas Flo only has the Globe win.
Joseph:And I also think that if you look at the race a little bit deeper and you sort of analyze how the boy in the heron was able to pull off that victory over across the Spider-Verse, which was again an immensely close race, you had across the Spider-Verse sort of triumph at the Annie Awards and at the Producers Guild and you had the Golden Globe and the BAFTA break for the boy in the heron. But the boy in the heron was such a massive global box office success we're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars that it's easy to see how it was a popular choice for a lot of individuals. Add to that the legacy of.
Joseph:Miyazaki right, and the idea that Miyazaki hasn't won an award since winning in 2002, right. And so when you add both of those things it starts to pick up steam. You know those two wins the money, the Miyazaki legacy. And then you add to the fact that Across the Spider-Verse was so intentional and sort of stating in the very film itself that there was going to be more Spider-Verse animated films. It sort of decreased the urgency to sort of give the win there, and I think that all those factors had to be well aligned to result in a a win for miyazaki's boy in the heron and I don't see those factors lining up here.
Joseph:I think the wild robot is an original piece, or rather it's not a sequel from dreamworks. I DreamWorks hasn't won since, I believe 2005's Wallace and Gromit, and I remember DreamWorks initiated was sort of the initiated champion in this category in 2001 with Shrek. So I think it would be a great moment. This is also the most nominations I believe that DreamWorks has been able to capture, with three nominations, including nominations for score and nominations for sound. I also think that the wild robot you know, beyond being an animal or you know such a huge adversary being nominated for so many Annie Awards and winning essentially all of them winning the Producers Guild Award, but also, you know, being at various Guild Awards like, for example, the Art art directors guild and winning that award at the visual effects society was well rewarded. So I think there's so much love and celebration for the film from the american industry. It's not a sequel, it's a going to be an opportunity for dreamworks to get back on that stage and the filmmaker from flow.
Joseph:This is only his second film yeah and if you look at the number of films that have sort of bridged the gap and gone from being the sort of art house international films that get nominated and win an Oscar for the animated film, there are so few. I think Miyazaki may be the only one, the only production that's coming from another country that's sort of able to muster a win here, and Miyazaki is able to do it again with the boy in the heron. But if you look at the idea that someone like Sylvain Chomet for the triplets of Belleville, has yet to win, has another film coming out next year I look forward to it someone like Tom Moore who's been nominated for Wolfwalkers and the Secret of Kells they haven't really bridged the gap yet to claim a victory here. I think that unfortunately, this filmmaker, he's too young and the film is not necessarily notable enough yet for its success at the box office, although, again, in its own terms, it's been wonderfully successful.
Joseph:I think, it's made upwards of $15 million, which, which is fantastic. It's just nowhere near the 300 million of the wild robot and also, I think, something like the 300 million that the boy in the herring was able to get right so because of that I I really do feel like this race is going to break for the wild robot.
Joseph:and I think the most definitive thing for me is you know, when you get nominations for the Wild Robot in a category like sound, a category that traditionally you know has 10 spots and has been unified into five and an animated film makes it into that category, I think it's a big deal. As far as I can tell, the only animated film to be nominated in that category and sort of lose this Oscar excuse me was never even nominated for this Oscar was the Polar Express. I think the Polar Express manages nominations in the sound categories when there was two of them and it wasn't nominated. But any film, animated film that's a sound nominee and an animated film nominee, they tend to win.
Joseph:And we kind of know that the number of nominations for a film, including animated films, sort of signify how popular you are. And so those three nominations mean that the Wild Robot is pretty popular across different branches and that really helps. And then, at the same time, we also know that Flo got two nominations, which is great. But if you look at it, those two nominations are more specialized because those are branches that, let's say, are a little bit more restricted in their voters in terms of foreign film, I think, and and animated film, if you look at something like flea, for example flea was nominated for documentary film, foreign film, animated film.
Joseph:That's three nominations. It's still lost in kanto, which was nominated for animated film, song and score right Right. Because I think the nominations for something like song or score are going to be nominations that are more appealing to a larger group of voters, or represent possibly a larger group of voters, than nominations for documentary and foreign film, where sometimes you have to opt in and other times you know they're more selected as to who they invite.
Jules:I think those are really good points that you're mentioning, fantastic points. I would say I agree with you. The fact that the wild robot was able to snag a nomination in sound design considering that it's now a unified category, there's less space, there's more competition and it was able to manage that nomination, I think, speaks very highly to how well liked that movie is. Also getting that nomination for score, finally, for Chris Bowers yeah.
Jules:And so I agree with you. I think all the cards are pointing to a huge amount of love and respect and admiration for that film, and that flow just can't quite compete at that level.
Joseph:Right Just yet, and I think some voters are going to look at it much like Flea and say the win for flow is Latvia finally being nominated for foreign film. Yeah. Is a Latvian production being nominated for animated film? Is this filmmaker who's on their second film being nominated for animated film? Right.
Jules:And so I think some people are going to say well, the victories are the nominations already Right and I really like what you said also about the consensus um pick being sort of splintered between uh and more. You know an international film like um uh memoir of a snail and another uh, british film. So that sort of consensus, foreign sort of group of voters is now splintered and you lose some power there. You lose some very much needed votes there.
Jules:That's what I think too, and I think that's going to hurt Flo as well. I 100% agree, and so I agree with you. My prediction would be for the Wild Robot to win and the spoiler.
Joseph:I think the strong second would probably be Flo 100.
Jules:I agree with that. 100, all right. Now let's move on to the category of visual effects.
Joseph:Right, the nominees are better man kingdom, kingdom of the planet of the apes, wicked dune and alien romulus right, yeah, and I think this category is a category that most people have feel pretty confident about, sort of calcified here. Um, really, the best two comparisons we should look at are the BAFTA awards and the visual effects society. At the BAFTA awards, four of these films were also nominated. They only failed to recognize alien romulus and they ended up giving the award to dune part two. Um, really interesting, because over at the Visual Effects Society, dune Part 2 was nominated all over the place and it dominated so many of its categories.
Joseph:But when the final award came for the night the final award, the biggest award, which is Best Achievement in Visual Effects in a Photo Reel Feature they decided not to give it to Dune. Exactly, they gave it to Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes instead. Now, between the two organizations, I would probably argue that there's better comparisons of BAFTA in terms of accuracy of how that crosses over with the Academy. Remember, there's overlap in both organizations and the Visual Effects Society. You know they don't always get it right. I remember last year they gave it to the creator right and um, the eventual winner for the oscar, godzilla, was not even a bafta nominee and it was only nominated, I believe, for one yeah one visual effects society um award, which I believe it lost.
Joseph:And so the big winner at the visual effects society, the creator, didn't win the oscar, even though it was also a bafta nominee nominee. And you know, for example, the Visual Effects Society chose something like the Lion King, whereas BAFTA and the Oscar decided to go with 1917. And so I just think that there are better comparisons for BAFTA, sort of foreshadowing what's going to happen at the Oscars, and so it seems to me like Dune would probably be the film that should be considered the favorite. Now, dune, I think, crosses a lot of important t's in order to get this win, which is usually. This winner has some overlap with production design, and dune did manage to get that nomination. Um, also a sound nominee which doesn't. Which doesn't hurt, um, and certainly the best picture nominee, right, but what's kind of here, if there is maybe an angle to play, is that there is a second best picture nominee here right.
Joseph:And that's Wicked which is also a production design nominee and, again, it's a film that wasn't really well rewarded at the Visual Effects Society, only garnering one nomination. But you know, as I said, godzilla only got that one nomination. But you know, as I said, godzilla only got that one nomination too, and just there was enough enthusiasm to want to give the award to the legacy of godzilla. I believe that that led to the victory. At the same time, something like bafta maybe was foreshadowing that victory for godzilla already right, because bafta ended up giving the award to poor things over the four other films that were the actual nominees.
Jules:That overlapped with the Oscars.
Joseph:You know Poor Things was not nominated. Right. So when Poor Things is able to beat the Creator and Mission Impossible and Napoleon, it kind of shows you that none of those four titles are really too popular to even beat Poor Things. Right.
Joseph:So if there just is enough favor for Godzilla and the legacy of Godzilla, godzilla will be able to win that award, and so that means that there's still a chance. I think, possibly for a movie with one nomination, like Kingdom of the Apes or Better man, to possibly have an upset here. But they're both wetter films, they're both ape films, they're both single nominee films. So I think they're both ape films, they're both single nominee films, so I think they're kind of going to split each other's votes.
Joseph:So I really do think it's going to come down to dune versus wicked right if wicked does end up edging this out, I think there's only going to be two factors that would determine that, which is the first one is that the visual effects team for wicked is is really well recognized, in the sense that they have numerous nominations and have something like four for a couple of them, and they have yet to win versus the Dune team. A large number of them were already recognized with a victory for the first one.
Joseph:And so I went back and I looked, and I and I went to look at how many films in a series or a sequel can sort of garner a win here at the visual effects for the visual effects category at the Academy. It's not often.
Joseph:Yeah, I think the only two comparisons I found were Avatar, right, which was a few years ago, but that's a wait between 2009 and 2022. Right, and before then you have a film that won consecutively back to back, a Best Picture nominee that won consecutively back to back, and that was the Lord of the Rings series, right, One, two and three. All of them one visual effects back to back. If Dune loses here, I think it would be a factor of.
Jules:I just gave it to.
Joseph:Dune and I want to give it to something different. Right now, possibly, wicked feels like that different thing that isn't going to vote split, because the two ape movies are likely going to vote split with each other and also it's not a sequel and also it's not a sequel yet you know, you know, part two will end up being the sequel, the continuation, and so I think the favorite here has to be dune part two, and I'm considering the spoiler to be wicked 100.
Jules:I agree with everything you've said. I would also consider Dune Part 2 to be the favorite that's the one I'm predicting as well and the other Best Picture nominee, because, I agree with you, this category tends to favor films that are not for Best Picture, and we have two this year. The spoiler would definitely be Wicked, but I feel pretty comfortable about Dune Part 2, especially since I think this is one of the few awards that I think Dune can win and its overall tally at the Academy was pretty low. Um unexpectedly only has five nominations. So if you really like to Dune and you'd like to give it something because you are very happy with the way that that um franchise wrapped up or, you know, quote, unquote wrapped up, um then you know this is one of the few places where I feel, like you, you can give it that award right.
Joseph:the visual effects award right, I will say that you know, as you, as you mentioned that you got me thinking that again, this idea that the dune franchise is going to quote, unquote, wrap up when they've sort of spun a serial or a series out of it.
Joseph:That could be something that maybe affects its chances here and sort of waters down that idea of it being a once-in-a-lifetime spectacle on the big screen and the other thing being that, yes, it won that award for visual effects at BAFTA, which is a really good predecessor for the Oscar, but it was also more liked at BAFTA, I would argue right, than it was at the Academy Awards.
Jules:I agree, I think that's a good point. I go back and forth thinking that maybe there are some voters that are, um, because, uh, dune part two was the favorite films of of of many people in the industry. I have this impression that there are a number of voters who are displeased with it having such a low amount of nominations and that this would be one of the way, this is one of the few ways that they can sort of correct that by giving it the award. But I agree with you, I think it did much better at BAFTA and I think that's nothing to neglect, to overlook. But yes, my prediction is also Dune Part 2 and Spoiler Wicked.
Joseph:Yeah, that's what I'm seeing also.
Jules:Okay, moving on to the next category, best Sound Design. The nominees are A Complete Unknown. Best Sound Design the nominees are A Complete Unknown Dune Part 2, wicked the Wild Robot and Amelia Parris. I will just we'll just state that this is one of the most the toughest categories to predict and I think it's one of the categories that I think most people stand to get wrong, or a significant number of people stand to get wrong. It's really a three-headed race and we'll get into that in a minute, but this is a really tough category to predict, to try to get right, yeah.
Joseph:I mean, this is going to be one of the make or break categories in terms of-.
Jules:If you're going to win your Oscar pool or not.
Joseph:Yeah, Whether you're going to win it or not, and I think we have some good guidelines. But it's going to be a sort of a pick-em race here between those three movies. So let's start with a little bit of context. The best comparisons, let's start talking about the BAFTA, the BAFTA right, and so the BAFTA nominees that are also Academy Award nominees are Dune, part 2, and Wicked, and at the BAFTA, duneune part two won this award, which is no insignificant thing. The other good comparison to look at is the cinema audio society right, which is the guild award for sound mixers, and over at the cinema audio society, dune and wicked are both nominees for the oscar and nominees at the cinema audio society for their award. But the actual win went to A Complete Unknown, which is interesting because, as I just mentioned, a Complete Unknown was not nominated at the BAFTA, so it certainly didn't win, it wasn't even nominated.
Joseph:We can talk a little bit about the other sound organization which is for the sound editors, which is the MPSE, the Motion Picture Sound Editors. They have various categories to look at, but the most pivotal one, I would argue, is their category for effects and Foley, which went to Dune. Dune won that category. Another good category to talk about is music, and you know that's a category that went to Wicked. That's a win for Wicked and a complete unknown. Dune and Amelia Perez were actually all nominated in that category. There's a win for Wicked and a complete unknown. Dune and Emilia Perez were actually all nominated in that category. There are other categories for, I believe, musical films possibly, I think, and there's an international category where Emilia Perez prevailed. There's a dialogue category where a complete unknown Wicked and Dune were all nominated but they all lost to Saturday Night. But the most fundamental one of those, I would argue, is FX. And there's another win for Dune, and so Dune is looking pretty good with that BAFTA win and with the win at the Motion Picture Sound Editors and the nomination at the Cinema Audio Society. A complete unknowns win at the Cinema Audio Society makes it a real threat and it's certainly a genre we know that they've liked to nominate and give wins to before.
Joseph:Most recently, I think, something like Bohemian Rhapsody was able to win both sound categories, but its absence at BAFTA, I think, is a major, major factor here. I think the last film to win an Oscar for sound without a BAFTA nomination is actually Zero Dark Thirty in the year 2012. And that was a tie. Remember One of those weird ties? Yeah, it was a tie for sound editing with Skyfall, which was a BAFTA nominee, and over on the sound mixing side, les Miserables won, and it was a BAFTA winner, I believe.
Joseph:And so, other than that, you have to go all the way back to 2006 to find another film that is able to sort of win the Oscar without being nominated for a BAFTA, and that was Dreamgirls, another musical, and it was a winner at the Cinema Audio Society.
Joseph:And what's more important, I would argue, is that in that particular year of 2006, when Dreamgirls won the Oscar without getting a BAFTA nomination, the BAFTA nominees were just terrible for how they overlap with the Academy.
Joseph:You had movies like Casino Royale and United 93, excellent films, but they did not get Academy Award nominations. Only one movie sort of overlapped between the Oscars and the BAFTA sound nominees, and so it was a really off year in terms of sound between BAFTA and Oscar, and it ended up going to the winner at the Cinema Audio Society Dreamgirls, also a musical. We all know that that's something that they like to reward here, but other than that, you really have to go to Zero Dark Thirty in a tie that manages to sort of something that they like to reward here, yeah, um, but other than that, you really have to go to zero dark 30 in a tie that manages to sort of survive this race without BAFTA support. A complete unknown was the nominee for best picture at BAFTA and it was, I believe, a top 10 film for the sound category and it could not place right now it's interesting because the movies that it didn't place over were Blitz and Gladiator 2 and the Substance, so possibly movies that it should have gotten in over easily.
Joseph:Or maybe you could argue that there's a little bit of a British bend to all those films and that you know, when you come to the Academy there's going to be much more robust support for that type of film, Even though, again, A Complete Unknown was a BAFTA Best Picture nominee. So I think it's possibly a troubling sign that we didn't see a complete unknown nominated there. In fact, we didn't see it win any BAFTAs, which may also be a troubling sign it might be a trend.
Jules:It may possibly be a trend. It also didn't win any Golden Globes or Greatest Choice Awards.
Joseph:Yeah, exactly, and so that may be something to look at. But you know, lately the sound category has been believe won that bafta last year and was able to win the oscar despite not being nominated for the cinema audio society. And if you look at a movie like um 1917, that's a movie that won bafta and won the oscar without being nominated for the cinema audio society. And the same can be said for whiplash. So as long as you're a film that has that sort of bafta support, even with that cinema audio society snub, you're in really good shape. And dune has the cinema audio society nomination and it has the bafta win to boot. Now remember that over at oscars recently we've had what's been sort of the unification of the sound categories, right. What was once the sound mixing category and the sound editing category has become just one sound uh category with five nominees, and ever since that's happened, I think bafta has also had a pretty good track record. They only ever missed once, right, which is when bafta went for all quiet on the western front and they went crazy for the movie that year, right, um. But at the oscars the win ended up going to someone like Top Gun Maverick, with that Cinema Audio Society support, and so I think it's really close I think most people would argue it's really close between Dune, part 2 and A Complete Unknown.
Joseph:But I would like to spotlight something that is really complicating this whole category, right, which is wicked. Right, we know that movies like bohemian rhapsody and ray do well here, but musicals do really well here too. You know, this is a category that lamisa robb picked up for the sound mix, dream girls picked up for the sound mix. Chicago won this. Um, in fact, I think the last, most musicals that are up for this, I think, do really well. I think one musical that was up for this and didn't do well was La La Land, where it won actually the Cinema Audio Society and it lost the category to the BAFTA winner, which was Arrival, and it lost the other category to Hacksaw Ridge. But I think Wicked, you know, when people have to vote on sound, they may be tempted to vote on you know what's the most sound or the loudest sound.
Jules:What's the most music? The most music equals the most sound, so that's easy.
Joseph:There may be an exciting factor here and I have to say that I think Wicked is in really good standing. I mean it has Andy Nelson on its team, yeah, but beyond that, as I said, musicals do well in this category. It is a nominee in both, unlike a complete unknown which missed that BAFTA nomination. Now it was clear that the British preferred Dune to Wicked, right but over at BAFTA it seems like Wicked and Dune, part two, were sort of even for BAFTA right with their seven nominations a piece more or less right.
Joseph:Um, and we know at the Academy, wicked is the preferred movie, doubling up on nominations to Doom, part II, right.
Joseph:It has 10 to Doom Part II's five.
Joseph:And here's to me, the real kicker as to why the film to watch here is the one that hasn't picked up an award yet, which is Wicked, is that, if you look at this category, a really good sort of comp for this category is, you know, look at the visual effects category right, another post-production category and when you look at the visual effects category, you have two nominees in visual effects that are also in sound, and that's Wicked and Dune Part 2.
Joseph:And we talk about how the sound nominees are a factor in visual effects nominees in terms of deciding the five, but when it comes to deciding the winner, visual effects movies do really well here. They tend to do really well here, and I think the last time that a visual effects nominee didn't pick up this award for sound was 2018, when Bohemian Rhapsody, again in the complete unknown sort of genre, was able to beat First man right. And then, other than that, I think you have an off year in 2020, the pandemic year, when Sound of Metal wins, which was not a visual effects nominee obviously, but there were no visual effects nominees in that category, correct yeah?
Joseph:exactly that was a year without any visual effects nominees in the sound category. Exactly that was a year without any visual effects nominees in the sound category. So other than that, you have to sort of figure that when voters are thinking about who's the best sound, sometimes they think in the back of their mind well, who's a visual effects movie? Right, right, which movie has a lot of visual effects? Because they may have a lot of sound effects. Right, exactly, and that's something going for Dune, but that's something going for Wicked too. Right.
Jules:And you know, beyond that, the other sort of really good crossover to look at, you know, between categories is the best film editing category.
Joseph:I was going to say that, yeah, yeah, exactly. Because if you look at the sound categories, historically through unification, which is after 2020, right, 2020 to 2024. And anything before then, right, when there was two categories the mix and the edit, and anything before then, right, when there was two categories the mix and the edit an editing nominee has walked away with at least one of those wins, right. And so we talked about sound of metal. Well, that was, that was an editing film. Yeah, right, we talked about one editing, exactly. We talk about something like, um, bohemian rhapsody that's an editing film, right, um, it was one editing as well. Um, even, something like dune part. One's an editing film right, it won editing as well.
Joseph:Even something like Dune part one was an editing film right, and I've mentioned Les Miserables, but that's not an editing film right. But over on the edit side they gave one of the trophies to Zero Dark Thirty. Even without that, bafta support right as we said and that's an editing film, right.
Joseph:Zero Dark Thirty. And you look at something like Dreamgirls, another musical that won right. That year the editing, the sound edit category, went to Letter from Ujima. Actually, that might be one of the few years, I think, where I don't think Letter from Ujima made it to editing. That's one of the few years where editing didn't place there. But most of the time, whether it's Mad Max, you're going to see an editing film win, but most of the time, whether it's Mad Max, you're going to see an editing film win. And to my mind, when Encore on the Western Front wins that BAFTA award and sort of loses the Oscar, I think maybe what sort of threw the support to Top Gun Maverick.
Joseph:Was that? It was that editing nomination. And so Wicked is in a very envious place, I would argue, because it's the rare musical, the rare Broadway adaptation Les Muses, robbes, dreamgirls that managed to get a nomination for both visual effects and film editing.
Jules:If you look at it, it sort of has the trifecta it has a sound nomination, which musicals do well in exactly, but then it has a visual effects nomination, which musicals typically don't do well exactly, and it also has an editing nomination, which musicals don't tend to do well, though, either.
Joseph:that's exactly my point exactly. It's sort of like in a weird place, in the sense that, again, not very many, not very many musicals get to be in this area. If you look, look at something like La La Land it had the editing nomination, the sound nominations, but no visual effects. Something like Chicago had the editing nomination, the sound nominations, but no visual effects. But so to be in this really unique position where it has that support, I really do wonder. You know, I you always think can a really big sort of Broadway musical that was one of the runaway financial hits of the year, can it not win here? And you sort of think well, its biggest challenge is going to be a visual effects film. Well, it just so happens that it is a visual effects film, its biggest challenge is going to be an editing film. Well, just so happens that it is an editing film. And so I would argue that Wicked hasn't shown its strength yet, but it might, you know, finally show up at the Oscars.
Joseph:And the one thing going against Wicked to this moment is that, of the films that I've sort of quoted Chicago, les Miserables, dreamgirls most of them had some sort of trajectory to that win, because they either won the BAFTA or the Cinema Audio Society, and Wicked hasn't picked up either right, it lost that BAFTA, it lost the Cinema Audio Society, but when you look at its competition you kind of wonder if it can't edge it out right With the idea that a complete unknown went empty handed at BAFTA and doesn't even have a BAFTA nomination, and again, not till Zero Dark Thirty. You're going to find that happen again. When you look at the idea that Dune was able to get that win but it was preferred at BAFTA than it was at the Oscars, and some voters are going to think in this category, do I really want to give it to Dune again?
Jules:Yeah, that was going to be my point, I just gave it to it. Yeah, that was going to be my point, that, along the lines of what you're saying, how realistic can we say that a film that underperformed and got five nominations, as opposed to the seven or eight that people were predicting for Dune Part 2, how likely is it that that film with five nominations is going to walk out with two awards? Given that the first iteration of Dune Dune Part 1, won those same two awards, it just feels very unlikely to me for it to win both visual effects and sound with five nominations. I really like the correlation with the bafta win. I think that's great, um, but I will say that I think wicked has, as you were saying, so many things in its favor right, exactly, so I think that wicked isn't necessarily the popular choice right now.
Joseph:Most people are sort of you know, either going into dune part two's camp or a complete unknown camp.
Jules:I also want to say that it's interesting that I believe James Mangold's sort of sister film Walk the Line was the winner of the Cinema Audio Society as well, and. Bafta and the BAFTA.
Joseph:And it lost.
Joseph:And it lost, and it lost the Oscar right lost and lost the oscar right, um. Sometimes you and I talk about how that might have been, you know, um, a consequence of ray the film having won the sound mix category the year before. Um, but it's really interesting to think about that. But you know, james mangled is someone who does really well in these sound categories and you got to wonder is he just well respected enough in the industry as a sound man to sort of, you know, beat the odds without that bad denomination? Um?
Jules:well, he did win, his film did win for exactly ferrari in 2019 or it might be sort of. Uh, I just gave it to uh to, uh to a film.
Joseph:Do I really want to do it again? So is it going to be that he's going to fulfill sort of the path of walk the line and finally win that, or is it going to be sort of like a? You know, james mangled gets, gets awarded here pretty well, so I'd rather not nominate it? I mean, I will say that, unlike wicked right, which grew from its baptist nominations of seven to an eventual 10 oscar nominations, a complete unknown sort of stayed the same right.
Jules:No I believe it was. Yeah, it sort of stayed pretty stable.
Joseph:A a it got a right um, but, interestingly enough, um, it did pick up that sound nomination at the academy awards, but it stayed more or less kind of. Even so, the enthusiasm didn't grow too much for it but you know the wicked nominations did grow in enthusiasm.
Jules:The dune ones, as we know, shrunk in enthusiasm, and that might be a factor I will say that for a film like a complete unknown, which was clearly liked by the academy, with eight nominations we just saw it, uh squeak a really big win for timothy chalamet at the sag.
Jules:So this is a film that's really well liked in the industry as a whole, with eight nominations at the Academy Awards. For a film like that to walk out empty-handed leaves one sort of you know it's a bit puzzling. You wouldn't think that that kind of film would walk out with zero wins, and barring a surprise win for Timothee Chalamet in the Best Actor category and we're going to get to that when we get to Best Actor this is one of the few places where voters can actually give something to a complete unknown, because there's too much competition in all the other races. So there is a big part of me that wonders if that element is going to help a complete unknown snatch a win here over something like Wicked. It has won more awards in the sound sphere than Wicked has. That desire to not have a complete unknown walk out empty-handed is going to play a big factor here, and that's something that's sort of making this decision even more difficult between these three films.
Joseph:Right, and I will say that you know, speaking about spreading the wealth, I think if Wicked maybe doesn't win here, I think we could talk about how the idea of two musicals maybe vote splitting each other might end up being a factor here, even if one is not a visual effects nominee and not an well, it is an editing nominee and one is extremely popular with 13 nominations.
Joseph:You know, la La Land was a movie that lost the BAFTA and won the Cinema Auto Society, and you would think that you could see that musical winning an award here, right, and it lost both of them, right, because it was an opportunity to sort of spread the wealth and give a rival an award for the night and give possibly what might have been the only award for Hacksaw Ridge, right. And so certainly I think voters are thinking about that and that might be a threat for a complete unknown. I would spotlight for a second, an organization that's sort of been recent, sort of been up and coming, which is the AMPS organization, the Association of Motion Picture Sound, and they've been pretty good about having winners as well. They've only been around since 2019, but their winner tends to go on to win the Oscar and, interestingly enough, they did overlap with the BAFTA this time, um, with the decision to give it to Dune 2 and the three headed horse of Wicked Dune Part 2, and A Complete Unknown were nominated. They decided to go with Dune Part 2. And this is what happened last year with the zone of interest were nominated, they decided to go with dune part two, and this is what happened last year with the zone of interest and I think the biggest you know hurdle beyond the lack of a bafta support for a complete unknown. Again, I want to quote zero dark 30 as the last time it's happened. But it's not only a bafta less nominee, it is also a bafta less no edit nominee, sound option, right, and so maybe those chances are shrinking.
Joseph:Maybe a complete unknown could survive that BAFTA snub. Can it really survive the BAFTA snub and the editing snub? That's the question we have to ask ourselves. Certainly, something like Ray was able to get it without that editing nomination, even though I think they went for a visual effects, uh, film, I'm sorry, an editing film in the other sound category, the edit category, and ray was nominated for a bafta. So I think suffice it to say that this is an absolute pick'em race.
Joseph:Um, there's, you have as good an argument for any. I think dune has important wins a complete unknown has a genre they're gonna to favor and is certainly a more popular film than Dune and hasn't been awarded as recently, as Dune Part 1 did. And then you have Wicked, which is a musical which does well here, but it's a musical that happens to also be all these other things at the same time. So I really, you know, I really am excited to see who ends up with this victory. I don't know how you're going to call it, but I mean, I think this is absolutely a pick-em series, right here.
Jules:I think something that I wanted to bring up was that I really feel like there's a big difference between a film like the Zone of Interest and Doom Part II, in that, even if the Zone of Interest was missing these important nominations in certain sound categories for other awards, the sound use was so uh integral to the part, to an integral part to that film and to the experience of that film, that I think that really um helped it get that win, as opposed to doom part two, which again, I think has uh going against it um the fact that it's a sequel yeah and that a lot of you know there might be this mentality been there, done that, seen it already.
Jules:Let's get something else new. Well, the zone of interest is very much qualified in the. You know I haven't seen this yet. This is very impressive. This is very potent. The way the film uses sound in that film that I think this competition between Doom Part 2 and something like Wicked or Complete Unknown doesn't have that going for it.
Jules:It doesn't have that sort of newness factor. It's very much in the terrain of a sequel, which I think really hurts as well and, as we were saying, I do feel like this category will make a difference in your whoever is listening to us will make a difference in your Oscar pool. If you get this right, you might just have the edge. So this is a very this is a category you want to give some thought to, um, because this might just be the difference maker.
Joseph:But again, you can put as much thought as you want into it. I don't think that there's going to be a super decisive reason.
Jules:Right, yeah, and so it's a three headed race either Doom part two or wicked, or a complete unknown. Either of those three can win easily this category. Right now, I'm going to say that my prediction is for wicked to win the sound category and the spoiler. I'm actually going to give it to a complete unknown and not doom part two as my spoiler.
Joseph:If this was a traditional year of two categories, right, I would argue that the sound editing win would go to dune part two and that the sound mix win would be a tough race between a complete unknown and wicked. You know, I think that there's just something about the popularity of wicked when you look at those other nominations that, as a musical, was able to garner. I haven't even started talking about it's.
Joseph:It's um sort of lampooning of the original score category where it got nominated there too right, and I don't think that a sort of an adapted musical has been nominated there since 19 the 1980s. And so you add that with the 10 nominations, I just feel like there's just going to be an overwhelming support here in this particular category for Wicked. So, despite not being the rare musical, does it have enough to be the rare musical to pull out a win here without a BAFTA win or a Cinema Audio Society win? I think it will. I think I prefer that than to have a non-editing film win again, especially one that you know just won recently in dune part two, and one that has no editing nomination and no bafta nomination, like a complete unknown. So I'm going to go wicked, and I agree with you, the spoiler here would possibly be a complete unknown right and don't neglect that.
Jules:unfortunately, the way a lot of these categories, when it comes to the oscars sort of end up is. You know, voters will look at the most obvious, and so don't overlook that there will be a significant number of voters who will think again. Most music equals most sound, exactly, exactly so. So don't overlook that either. So we are in agreement then.
Joseph:Yeah, I think we're in agreement and I will say as we said what's your spoiler?
Jules:again.
Joseph:My spoiler is a complete annonce, so we're in 100% agreement. But this category is a hair is literally a hair of difference between those three.
Jules:The three headed race there right, yeah, okay, moving on to the next category. Uh, best original score. The nominees are emilia, paris, conclave, the wild robot wicked and the yeah.
Joseph:I mean, I think this is a category that the best thing to look at is BAFTA. I think BAFTA has been really really good at predicting this category. And well, the BAFTA winner was the Brutalist, and the only nominee not to make it into BAFTA was Wicked right. So the BAFTA nominees were the Brutalist Conclave, emilio Perez and the Wild Robot. The winner was the Brutalist.
Jules:So technically, it would seem as though we should pick between those four.
Joseph:You would think right, you would think Now I will say this is that you know they've been on a really good streak. I think you have to go back to, I think, something like 2018 was the last time that an original score winner at BAFTA was not an Oscar winner. In fact, that year, the original score winner at Oscars, black Panther, was snubbed at BAFTA, and it was, you know. Just, black Panther was not a BAFTA thing, it was snubbed all over the place and the Academy, you know, clearly loved it. It grew from, you know, I think, two BAFTA nominations to eight at the Academy, so the Academy was clearly a fan, and so you can be snubbed from BAFTA and still win this category. So if you're wicked, you don't, you know, give up on this category, but usually that's not the case.
Joseph:Other than that, I think the other time that BAFTA has sort of broken its streak was in 2012, when they went for Skyfall over Life of Pi. Life of Pi won the Oscar. Both of them were BAFTA nominees and Oscar nominees. You know, what I could say to that is that whenever you deal with BAFTA and you have a 007 nominee, there's like the 007 mirage. There's a favoritism.
Joseph:You know, the 007 franchise to them is what the Black Panther film was to the American organization, the Academy. Right, they just have their favorites. It's very revered. James Bond is just incredibly revered there. So you know you probably could have understood that. You know Life of Pi could take that award from Skyfall, unless you were thinking about the Thomas Newman factor and that he hadn't won yet.
Joseph:And then before that, I think the last time, is something like the King's Speech in 2010,. Which wins the BAFTA, nominated for the Oscar, but it loses to the Social Network, which was not a BAFTA nominee, and again, I just think it was a little bit edgy for BAFTA at the moment. That said, you know the Social Network, life of Pi both of them were Golden Globe winners and Black Panther was a Golden Globe nominee this year. The Golden Globe winner, the Oscar, shutout exactly, which was Challengers, unfortunately and so the Golden Globe winner, we know, is not going to play a factor here, and so the Golden Globe winner, we know, is not going to play a factor here. And so, looking at that, I would argue that the favorite here has to be the Brutalist no-transcript with the actual songs itself.
Jules:Right, and even something like Conclave. You know that has a very. That's also a score that's memorable. But Edward Berger film already just won that for in 2022 for Aquaman. Western Front and I will say that the film here that I think stood the best chance of overtaking a movie like the Brutalist was Emilia Perez, considering that it has this connection with the original song category. It's also nominated for other very important texts like editing and sound design.
Jules:And so if there was one film that was ready to trump this possible win for the Brutalist, it was Amelia Perez Right, and the stock going down for Amelia Perez has opened up the space for a movie like the Brutalist Right.
Joseph:You know, I think we should. It bears talking about the idea of an overlap between score and song. Yeah.
Joseph:Two sort of oral categories, and so if the Brutalist can't capitalize on its BAFTA win and it loses, I would argue the threat is from the sound nominees. And the sound nominees that were also score nominees this year were Emilia Perez, wicked and the Wild Robot. So that's three, and that just goes to show you how strong a connection there is between those two categories. But the reason I say that is because, yes, bafta has been on a streak and, yes, the Blueless won that award, but at the Academy Awards they have leaned into a sound nominee winning the original score category for almost a decade now. You have to go all the way back to 2015. That was the last time a film was able to win original score without a sound nomination, which of course the Brutalist this year does not have. Right.
Joseph:It didn't even make, I believe, the long list, and so, and that film was Ennio Morricone of all individuals and he won for the 8th late, but you know there was a period in time Academy Award, I think it individuals and he won for the hateful eight, but you know there was a period in time academy award I think it was his first academy award.
Joseph:Yes, exactly. So all those factors are going for it, and that year they certainly had sound nominees to pick from right. A movie like carol I'm sorry, excuse me a movie like sicario was nominated for score and sound and it lost um, but they also had a little bit of a stretch in time there where you know sort of sound nominee was not the go-to score winner, um, you look at something like 2014 where the grand budapest hotel won and it beat something like interstellar, and in 2011, the artist, of course, was not a a sound nominee, obviously, and it beat something like warhorse and hugo, and even something like atonement was able to beat 310 to Human Ratatouille in 2007. Now what's kind of interesting is that of those films that I'm mentioning that are able to win the Oscar for original score without a sound nomination, most of them all, except Atonement, were actually BAFTA winners. Right, the Grand Budapest Hotel won that BAFTA.
Joseph:Hateful Eight Artists they all won that BAFTA, hateful Eight artists they all won the BAFTA. And so that puts the Budalists, I think, in really strong conversation with sort of following in the footsteps of those films and being able to win the award. But if there is an upset. I would argue it's one of those sound films.
Joseph:And then just to quickly point out, you know there is some overlap between song and score. Last film to win them both was La La Land, which is maybe Emilia Perez could do that. As you had said, it sounded like Emilia Perez was a strong choice here once upon a time, and certainly possibly still the favorite for song, and the last film to win score without winning song is Black Panther, and so it doesn't hurt to have a song nominated, much less a pair of songs nominated, like Emilia Perez.
Joseph:And so maybe doesn't hurt to have a song nominated, much less a pair of songs nominated, like Amelia Perez. Right. And so maybe that would be the spoiler waiting here. I mean, I'll also say you know, first nomination for Chris Bowers is a big deal.
Jules:Yeah, I wonder about Chris Bowers being a sneak attack here.
Joseph:Right. Dreamworks having a lot of nominations for the Wild Robot, also a big deal and wicked. Getting into that nomination for original score when it hasn't happened since you know mid eighties is a huge deal. Steven Schwartz you know multiple Academy award nominations and I believe he's one for original score for Pocahontas and he's one for writing songs for Pocahontas and the Prince of Egypt. So not outlandish to think that if there is a spoiler and it's from the sound category, it could possibly be wicked. Like I said, we may be dealing with a film that at the end of oscar night was as beloved as you know. Dune part one was remember when dune got those 10 nominations and pulled out six trophies. You could see something like that happening for wicked, especially below the line yeah, and I think that's a good point.
Jules:I mean, we, we'll see what happens. I'm not a hundred percent sold on it just yet, but like Dune part one, you know you have in most Oscar ceremonies, as as of late, there's a one sort of spectacle driven film that ends up over-performing and grabbing most of the text and doing really well below the line, and that could be wicked. It could be. I mean, right now it'll have it pegged as just that quite yet, but it could certainly be following Doom Part 1's footsteps. I 100% agree with you. I think, as I was saying earlier, you know, emilia Perez, sort of abandoning the ship here really helped out the Brutalist quite a bit, and so I'm going to go with my prediction to be the Brutalist and, like you said, my spoiler is going to be one of the sound categories, a film that's nominated for both uh uh score and sound, and I think I'm going to go with the wild robot as my spoiler.
Joseph:It's very interesting. I think it's a as valid a choice as as the next I. I think that the brutalist, as you said, falls in the trajectory there and is able to go from BAFTA winner to Oscar winner. And I'm actually going to say, if there's a spoiler, you know, maybe there's just enough respect for what Emilia Perez was trying to do musically to sort of survive. That, and so I'll say Emilia Perez, is my spoiler All right Perfect.
Joseph:Well, let's talk about original song then. The nominees were Emilia Perez for El for el mal. Emilia perez for me camino, sing, sing for like a bird. The six, triple eight for the journey. Elton john never too late for the song. Never too late. What do you think?
Jules:all right, this category is a little bit weird. I think the one sort of uh aspect that's making it making it confusing is that there are people who are completely abandoning ship for Emilia Perez, and so there are people right now who are thinking. Clayton Davis, I know, wrote an article in Variety. He's predicting a complete shutout of Emilia Perez. I'm not quite there.
Joseph:Remember when Clayton Davis was saying that Emilia Perez is going to be the most nominated film ever and the most winning film ever?
Jules:Well, it was the most nominated film ever in foreign language, so that came true.
Joseph:How quickly, how quickly the tune changes.
Jules:Right, and so you know, I'm not sure that Exodus is completely warranted. You know, certainly the film has lost so much steam. The controversy hasn't helped, pre and post tweets surfacing. However, I don't expect Emilia Perez to walk out with zero wins, and I think it's two best categories for her to win are supporting actress and original song and, weirdly enough, they're tied in together in a way, because, uh, zoe's aldania has managed to be unscathed by this uh sort of controversy. She's won the baft of the sag, the critics choice um the golden globe, and so a big part of her campaign has been around that big number of hers right and mal um.
Jules:A big part of her sort of uh performance is sort of being centered around that musical number. I personally don't think it's one of the best musical numbers in the film, right personally. Or nor do I think it's zoe's al daniel's finest moment in the film either remember she went on stage for the golden globe.
Jules:When I gave it to the song, she went on stage right and so I disagree with, I guess, the majority of people who might think that. However, I do feel that it's been such a anchor to her campaign and to the film's um campaign as a whole yeah and so I do think that's still very much the favorite el mal.
Jules:I don't think the same has happened for me camino um or the musical number as it relates to Selena Gomez's part, even though I kind of prefer that song more than El Mal. But I don't see that being such a competitor for El Mal. If anything, there might be a chance that there's some vote splitting because there's two songs to choose from. But, like I said, el Mal and Zoe Saldana has been so at the front of this awards campaign, of the Amelia Perez awards campaign, that I doubt that happens.
Jules:And then you have the three other contenders, which are interesting to talk about in the sense that I think, technically, either of those three could pull off a surprise even though I think it's unlikely Like a Bird was a surprise nominee in my opinion, but it has a social message to it, right Alongside the film that could carry it to a win. If voters decide at the end of the day that they do want to sort of blank Amelia Paris from everything, which again I think is unlikely. And then you have Diane Warren, which is a big dark horse because she's never won and because she knows it.
Jules:She knows it and I think she wants never won and because she knows it, she knows it and I think she wants that award. However, I'm thinking that Diane Warren's moment to win is when she's a part of a movie that has a bigger sort of impact in the awards race in the Oscar race.
Joseph:That's all she's really missing, Right exactly. Just get on board with a movie that's going to get nominated for more than just song.
Jules:Exactly so. The 6888 was received very mixed by critics. It doesn't have very good reviews, so it's hard for me to see this song from this film being the thing that gets her over the hump. I will say I quite like the song quite a bit. It's one of my favorite amongst this list, so it has that going for it. It's actually a very good song performed beautifully by her. Yeah. And this list so it has that going for it. It's actually a very good song performed beautifully by her. Yeah, um and so uh.
Jules:It also has a social message to it um, that might help it along, might help it as well, um, but I don't know, I just don't like that. It's, you know, not a very well-received film. I'm just not sure that this is her ticket, um. And then elton John is one of the most iconic recognizable names on this list and I think there's always a feeling, a possibility, that voters just check off the most known name here. I don't like, however, that he just won in 2019. I prefer this song over the one that he won for for Rocketman, but the point is he already has an Oscar for original song Multiples because remember he got Lion King Exactly.
Jules:And so I'm not really sure right now that uh this, uh this song, a part of his documentary um, is going to also kind of pull through. I think it's hasn't been enough time since his last win for Rocketman Um, and so, by virtue of the competition, I think that uh el mal still comes out on top. Um, my spoiler is actually going to be a very surprise win to finally give it to uh no, no and break tradition, no way for the journey mean.
Jules:Possibly, if there's that many people dissatisfied with Amelia Perez's trajectory and its nosedive, then they'll just say well, you know what? It's as good a time as any to give Diane Warren finally her first Oscar, possibly. So that's going to be my spoiler Diane Warren, the Journey, but my pick is definitely Edmonds for.
Joseph:Amelia Perez. I agree with a lot of what you're saying. I think Diane Warren's song is quite good and she's extremely talented and she's going to win at some point, and I think she's a worthy sort of spoiler here, I think, for me. You know, when someone like Clayton Davis, who talks up Amelia Perez that now is doing everything he can to talk it down, it just to me enhances the problem here in the sense of why there will not be an Amelia Perez shutout. If there is an Amelia Perez shutout, that's going to only enhance the controversy right.
Joseph:The Academy at this point wants to distance itself as much as possible, and so you have to find the balance between not giving it too much to avoid being on people's crosshairs, but not giving it too little so that the headlines read all over the place that Emilio Perez complete shutout. Academy completely sort of reverses course and dumps it. So sort of like almost shutting it out is going to give more of a spotlight to the Academy than what they want of a spotlight to the academy than what they want. So they're going to have to give it a couple of respectable wins to sort of say that you know it lost due to the competition, not due to the controversy, and so because of that I agree with you.
Joseph:I think El Mal has this, this award still pretty secure, and I think you're right for every reason you said, and certainly because it's really tied into the Zaldana performance. So the favorite here, I think, should be Amal. It should win. If there is a spoiler as much as the Diane Warren one sounds like it's a possibility, Like it is every year. I actually think that if someone like Bradley Cooper has been quoted, as you know, loving Sing Sing as much as he does, this might be a category where enough people like the song, like the movie and feel like it's a moment to celebrate that film that they loved so much and it has a social message. So I think that my spoiler would actually be like a bird from Sing Sing.
Jules:That's a good point. I will also mention one last thing that is on par with what we've been saying so far is that, despite the nosedive that has been Amelia Perez's awards campaign, there are people in this academy that like that movie, that responded to that movie, that find it compelling. You know obviously got 13 nominations. That doesn't just go out the window because of resurfaced tweets and I will say you could say that there was a big. There were already legitimate criticism towards the film prior to that, but that legitimate criticism didn't derail the film from getting 13 nominations.
Joseph:Was a non-factor.
Jules:Exactly so, it's a non-factor. The point is, this film is liked by a lot of members in the Academy, so to think that it's going to walk out with zero, I think, is pretty unlikely.
Joseph:That's at least what we're predicting Now. Should that be the case, I'm sure that's something that we'll unpack, you know, the days following. But I agree with you, it's very hard to believe that we're going to jump to such extremes. Right, exactly. All right. Well, let's talk about the makeup category, which is a really fun category. I really like the nominees here. Okay, so the nominees there were A Different man, emilia Perez.
Jules:Nosferatu, the Substance and Wicked. What do you think? I'm sorry, only seven or rather, I apologize, eight years has the BAFTA winner not gone on to be the Oscar winner in this category. But what's very interesting to note is that six out of those eight years the Oscar winner wasn't even nominated for the BAFTA category. We certainly don't have that this year. In fact we have an overlap of four nominees Nosferatu, the Substance, emilia Perez and. Wicked, so I think the likelihood of that occurring is very unlikely. Yeah very slow.
Jules:And I would say the safest thing is to go with the four films that overlap in both. Yeah.
Jules:So that leaves out a film like A Different man, which is unfortunate, it's a great film, uh, one of our favorites, and it's the only nomination that where it gets a spotlight. Um, I will say that this category for the BAFTAs and especially the Oscars, it tends to really favor performances. So, actors who have a heavy dose of makeup on them, uh, as a as an integral part of their performance Think, you know, marianne Cotillard and La Vie en Rose, brendan.
Joseph:Fraser.
Jules:Brendan Fraser in the Whale and Jessica Chastain in the Eyes of Temmie Faye. So the edge certainly goes to a film that is nominated for an Academy Award for acting and is an integral part of that actor's performance, and that leaves the most tempting options to be the Substance which is nominated for Best Actress, right Wicked, which has a Best Actress and a Best Supporting Actress nomination, and Emilia Perez, which has a Best Actress and a Best Supporting Actress nomination.
Joseph:Also the three Best Picture movies.
Jules:Exactly, and there are three Best Picture movies, so all of that makes me feel like it should be among those three. But in reality I think this is a pretty easy category in terms of prediction. I think that the Substance is going to walk away with this award. I actually think and we're going to get to this when we get to Best Actress it's going to be the only award that the Substance wins. A very uh winner in this category.
Jules:I think you can't put that movie on, as I'm sure many voters have, um, in preparation for the voting, and not be compelled to give it makeup because it's such an integral part to that movie and so into the last act of that movie, um. So I think the substance is winning this hands down. It also know correlates with what we've been saying. It has a performance that's nominated in Demi Moore for Best Actress, and my spoiler would be, amidst those three other films, those two other films that are nominated for not just Best Picture but performances. So my spoiler would be Wicked for makeup. But I think the Substance has this hands down.
Joseph:I think that if the Substance loses this, it's a huge red flag.
Jules:That's a bad sign.
Joseph:You know, I think I can't really picture the Substance winning another award, be it screenplay or actress, and it having lost this category. It feels like this is a must win for this film and I think it's in pretty good shape. I agree with you to win here If and I think it's in pretty good shape I agree with you to win here.
Joseph:If there was a film, I think, to sort of angle it upset, I think it would have to be Wicked, right, and it would be sort of again, it would turn out to be that kind of night where Wicked is just they want to reward Wicked so much akin to, you know, dune's 10 nominations and giving it six. Or Mad Max Fury Road's 10 nominations and giving it six, giving it six. Or Mad Max Fury Roads 10 nominations and giving it six. So a night where they want to give Wicked at least half of the awards that it's nominated for. But as of right now, I think the substance is in pretty good shape. You know, if it doesn't win this, we know it's because genre bias and we know that the film just did not click when it got more eyeballs on it after its best picture nomination.
Joseph:Right, you know there's just too much blood, too much gore, too much body horror and it's just something that was unappealing to them. But I agree with you. I think it's the substance, and my spoiler is Wicked.
Jules:Okay, now moving on to the best costume design category. The nominees are Gladiator 2, conclave A Complete Unknown, nosferatu and Wicked.
Joseph:Right, and I think this is another one of those categories where the frontrunner is in really good shape. Yeah, I think if we look at the BAFTA for comparison, the only film to not get in there was Gladiator 2. She's on back-to-back nominations. I think that's the award enough. It's the only film for excuse me, the only nomination for Gladiator 2. So we're really just looking at the four BAFTA nominees. Wicked, a Complete Unknown. Conclave, nosferatu Of those, a Complete Unknown did not manage to get a nomination at its guild which is a little bit of a handicap there.
Joseph:Arianne Phillips has been nominated multiple times yet to win. That's certainly the angle that the campaign wants to take in order to sort of get her over the top. But the favorite here has to be Wicked. It's, I believe, paul Tazewell's second nomination after West Side Story, for which I believe he did not win. No, he didn't. I don't think that he won that year. No, he lost to Cruella.
Joseph:And so this should be an easy win for him and the work is really good and it's certainly the kind of thing that's going to appeal to them. Um, and then if you kind of compare that, you know it did win that bafta. And if you look at the costume designers guild, it won the I believe fantasy category. Uh, conclave won the contemporary category and oscar to one period.
Joseph:Unfortunately, this is just the first nomination for linda muir and oscar to, so I think that's the huge handicap there and for you know, contemporary films, it's so difficult for them to win here. Even something like La La Land, for Mary Zoffries was not able to win, and so I think it's going to have a tough time overcoming that. Again, it's also the second nomination for Liso Cristo, I believe, but even then, the contemporary bias is just so significant. And then, if you look at it, really the BAFTA is the best sort of predictor of what's going to happen. I think they've only sort of in recent history, missed the boat sort of three times, and that was in 2022, when they missed Elvis, but they had completely snubbed Black Panther 2, the eventual Oscar winner, which was no surprise, because they also missed in 2018 when Black Panther, the first film was also the winner for Ruth Carter for her wonderful work there, and they went for the favorite, which is also wonderful.
Joseph:But again they just they have this thing against Black Panther. We'll call it, quote, unquote, that thing, whatever you want to call it. And then in 2016 actually actually is the most recent time where they gave it to a film that was an Oscar nominee and they chose it over one of their own BAFTA nominees that would end up winning the category, which is in 2016,. Bafta went for Jackie when the Oscars went to for Colleen Atwood's work in Fantastic Beasts, and it was also a BAFTA nominee. And so I think, looking at that, you kind of have a little bit of a a handicap for A Community Unknown and a little bit of a handicap for um Gladiator 2.
Joseph:And then the favorite here has to be Wicked, and it just makes so much sense. It has everything it needs. It has, you know, there's a lot of overlap here between production, design and makeup, and it has both of those, correct. You know it's a very visual movie. So I think this is, at minimum, a category that Wicked has to win. If Wicked loses this category, I can tell you it's going to be a terrible night for Wicked. But that's not going to happen.
Joseph:Right, I think the favorite here has to be Wicked and if pressed to pick a spoiler, that's kind of the interesting part Very difficult to pick one. I mean, I would argue that you either want to go with Conclave because it's a best picture favorite or because it has some best picture steam or a complete unknown, and Arianne Phillips finally, you know, gets that win. She was nominated for her work on Walk the Line with this director so maybe that's a factor.
Joseph:nominated for her work on walk the line with this director, so maybe that's a factor I don't know.
Jules:Who are you picking for a spoiler? Uh, well, I like you, like you. I think this is wicked's uh, wickets to have. It's pretty, you know, it's a pretty easy category for it to win. Um, I think it's definitely going to win. That's the favorite. My spoiler would actually be certainly between those two films conclave and a complete unknown. I just think that the costume work is a little bit flashier in Conclave than it is in A Complete Unknown. Personally, especially apart from the Bob Dylan character, I think the other supporting cast stands out a little less than Bob Dylan costume-wise, and so I'm going to give conclave the edge here and give that the spoiler. But I agree with you, it's very hard for contemporary film to win here and it should easily be wicked.
Joseph:That wins this you know what I? I think you're right. This is almost a category that doesn't require a spoiler. Um, my choice is wicked, but I think my spoiler. I'm actually going to end up going with nasferatu, which is actually a little bit flashier than either of those films. And it did win the period side and it is a production design nominee and a cinematography nominee and a makeup nominee.
Joseph:So you know if, if sometimes there is some crossover which again there barely is any between cinematography and costume design, that would be the angle that Nosferatu would want to play, because Wicked did not get nominated there. So I'd say the favorite is Wicked and the spoiler is probably Nosferatu.
Jules:Okay, moving on to the next category, best Production Design. The nominees were Conclave Dune, part 2, nosferatu the Brutalist and Wicked.
Joseph:Right, and so a lot of crossover here with a couple of really important categories. Certainly this is sort of a sister category to costume design.
Jules:It's actually kind of interesting that Dune Part 2 did a knife for costume design. You would think that would be a slam dunk. Foreshadowing, even possibly yeah that was a big miss from Dune Part 2. Yeah, and unfortunate too.
Joseph:I really love the work there. But so if we look at this category, a lot of again crossover between this and costume design. It's best to start with some context. So at BAFTA you had the Boudelist, conclave Dune, nosferatu and Wicked. So you went five for five, which is a really good sign, and BAFTA ended up giving that award to Wicked along with its costume design award. And over at the Art Directors Guild, which is actually pretty important, the fantasy section of that guild went for Wicked, the period went for Nosferatu and the contemporary went for Conclave.
Joseph:Now it's important to note that, like Conclave is facing the same sort of contemporary bias, here, I mean, I think there's maybe a few films that have been able to beat it over time, but not very many. La La Land is a movie that was able to beat it, but again, so many nominations that year, such a big favorite, but it's a huge mountain to climb. So I think that's something that Conclave is possibly, you know, ill-equipped to handle. But if you kind of look at the films that BAFTA has gone for, you know there's a number of films that they go for that doesn't necessarily materialize in an Oscar win. Now I still think Wicked is the favorite, but some of these films include something as recent as Babylon.
Joseph:Bafta actually went for Babylon, despite how crazy they were for Aquaman and the Western Front. They went for 1917, when the Oscars went for. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, they went for the favorite and they even snubbed Black Panther. So you don't have to necessarily be a BAFTA nominee to survive to win the Oscar, but more often than not that's the case. They went for Fantastic Beasts. When the Oscar went to La La Land, a contemporary film, they went for Les Miserables. Remember when Lincoln?
Joseph:ended up surprising at the Oscars with one of its few wins and they went for Inception when the Oscars went for Alice in Wonderland and Inception was such a big movie that year won so many tech awards but it failed to win that award and I think the reason for that is because one of the most telling signs here is you know, is your film also a costume nominee? You know there's a lot of really great work here in this production design category, but when you look at the Brutalist and Dune Part 2, two films that you know can sort of figure as movies that could spoil, here One of the big issues is that they don't have costume nominations. And you know there's some overlap with visual effects. So this is especially true for Dune, right, because Dune, like Wicked, is a visual effects nominee. Yeah, so that's an extra advantage it has. But that costume snub is really painful for doing in this category. If you look at the films that managed to sort of um win an Oscar for this category, um, without costume nominations there's only really one I think that comes to mind in my research, which is all quiet on the Western front right, which is a recent choice. Um, but other than that, you know the reason why something like like um, alice in wonderland, can sort of sneak in on something like inception, which is a bigger best picture movie, is because it does have that costume nomination, right. Um, a reason why lalaland can still maybe figure out how to win here as a contemporary film, because it was also the rare contemporary film with a costume nomination. So that costume nomination that or that, I'd rather actually say that costume snub, I think is really going to end up costing both the Brutalist and Conclave here and again. It's just another reason why Wicked is the sort of really calcified favorite, I think, of this race.
Joseph:The other thing worth looking at is that you know we talk about Aquarian and the Western Front. You know it's the rare film that's able to win this category without costume, and that's that it beat Babylon after Babylon won both the BAFTA and the art director's guild, right. And so you kind of wonder how all acquiring the Western front is able to sort of beat that. You know that, uh, that combination, and the only thing I can sort of think of is that we've been lately on a bit of a streak since 2019, which is that the winner for production design tends to be a cinematography film. So if wicked somehow loses this film to something like the brutalist which some people are talking about, yeah, um, and you know, possibly a little bit further out there, something like a dune. You'll know, it's because the cinematography became a factor. Yeah, I don't think that's going to happen, but if it were to happen, then you know that that was.
Joseph:That was the angle that they were playing right um. So I think right now um, I think the baptist sort of solidified it the winner should be Wicked and my runner up, I would argue because of that cinematography stat is probably the Brutalist, the spoiler.
Jules:Right, I think that you've made excellent points. I 100% agree. I do think this is like costume design Wicked's for the taking.
Jules:Wicked will win this category and my spoiler would be the Brutalist, for the exact reason that you just pointed out, and also that, because it's a film you know about an architect, there might be some voters who just sort of make that sort of synonymous connection between well, it's a film about an architect, so of course I'm going to give it production design, Even if I think that the production design in that film is a little bit less in your face and ostentatious as something like Wicked yeah, and it's more par for the course with its enigmatic themes Right Highbrow sort of themes Right, and I think something that maybe hurt the Brutalist, maybe towards the end, is that whole AI controversy.
Joseph:Oh, yes, especially as it's used in the film to sort of I believe, enhance certain buildings or certain background buildings, or something like that.
Jules:Maybe that might have played a part.
Joseph:They never really got a handle on that, in my opinion. And then the other thing I'll say is that's really going for Wicked? Is that Nathan Crowley who's the nominee here? You know he's really well known. As far as I know, he's yet to actually win an award.
Jules:Exactly.
Joseph:And so that's something. You know that even if you're not the biggest Wicked fan, you maybe want to see Nathan Crowley get up there already.
Jules:Absolutely A hundred percent. So we're in agreement. Wicked the favorite here, it's going to win, and the spoiler is the Boudalist.
Joseph:All right. Well, let's talk about best cinematography. That's a, that's a category that everyone loves. So Maria and Nosferatu, some familiar faces here and some new, some first-time nominees, right?
Jules:Yes, very interesting to see Maria get its one nomination here. Right, we saw that coming because the great Ed Lachman, right, the very brilliant, great, glorious Ed Lachman, when he gets a nomination at the ASCC he tends to repeat at the Oscars yeah, as you said, yeah interestingly enough, at the ASC, the American Society of Cinematographers, his work has only been nominated with two directors yeah, so he's been nominated, I think with three projects with Todd Haynes and two projects with Pablo Larraín now two, yeah, and so that's interesting and the winner of the ASC was Ed Lachman, winning his first competitive win here at the ASC In a category that included, like what seven films Exactly, including some heavy favorites, right?
Jules:Exactly. So that was very telling, that was very interesting. But I will say that the ASC doesn't have terrific crossover with the Academy over the last since 2000,. They've missed about 11 times. 11 times the winner did not correlate with the winner of the Academy Award. So don't put too much stock on the fact that Ed Lachman won for Maria here. He's never won an Academy Award. So I know there's a big contingent in the academy who's probably you know, really, um, you know, and outside the academy, you know, certainly us dying to see him win an academy award for his beautiful work. However, I just don't think a film.
Jules:That is the film's only nomination solo nomination exactly is going to be the thing that does that. Um, and so I wouldn't count maria and the ASC win as a big factor here and, like I said, they've missed 11 times since 2000. And the ASC will prioritize several times the film that they honestly thought had the most significant cinematography. Yeah, and they won't really put too much stock in who's the Oscar favorite or who's going to win Best Picture.
Jules:So you would think that the Brutalists, which is a favorite in this category would walk away with that award at the ASC, and it didn't. And that's like in 2010,. Hugo was a favorite and it ended up winning the cinematography award at the Academy Awards, but they chose the Tree of Life.
Joseph:At the Guild.
Jules:Right, which had a much more impact in terms of cinematography than Hugo, in my opinion.
Joseph:Right.
Jules:And this was before sort of Emmanuel Lubezki became a popular choice at the Oscars and would eventually win for something like Birdman right. Exactly so.
Joseph:the Guild is sometimes a little bit ahead of where the Academy is.
Jules:Right.
Joseph:And also they're also taking into account careers, right? Because when you give give it to Ed Lockman and you know Ed Lockman has been nominated four or five times and has been working since the eighties, you know you realize that low Crowley, for all the Vista vision of the Brutalist, maybe can wait. As a guild, You'd rather give the award to Ed Lockman.
Jules:And they did the same thing in 2009. They prefer the cinematography of the white ribbon, which is, you know, incredible, over. You know, the favorite. That was Avatar.
Jules:But I very much think that what's going to play out here is a similar scenario, where they went for what they thought was the best cinematography and also the most one of the most iconic cinematographers of our time in Ed Lachman for Maria. But the Brutalist is the favorite here. It's nominated for 10 Academy Awards. Vista Vision has been such an integral part of not only the experience of watching that film but also its campaign.
Jules:The promotion yeah, the promotion, the campaign and the marketing, and I think a lot of voters are going to sort of you know, point to that, direct themselves to that as to a reason why it's a must you know? Vote for the Brutalist? Yeah, Obviously, cinematography is a big part of that film and the experience of that film. So I do think it's pretty safe to say that the Brutalist is going to win this category. We also looked at BAFTA. Bafta misses less times than the ASC, Interestingly enough, since 2000, they've missed about eight times and they tend to have a good correlation. And the brutalist won this award.
Joseph:Um, low crawley is british though. Yeah, that's true. If low crawley does not manage to repeat at oscars like at bafta, that might be a little bit of of the issue is that you know, as sort of homegrown talent.
Jules:The bafta felt, you know, more open or urgent to sort of award him yeah, um, so they've missed a few times, but they tend to correlate pretty well. I think the same will happen here. Uh, the BAFTA win for the Boudalas will be repeated at the Oscars. The Boudalas will win Best Cinematography. That'll count that as one of its. You know awards hall, and my spoiler in this category would probably be um, nasra Rautu. Um, this is Jaron Blaschke's second nomination the Lighthouse. The Lighthouse another collaboration with Robert Eggers. Yeah.
Jules:And I think, like we talked about in a previous podcast, this collaboration between Jaron and Robert Eggers is a collaboration that cinematographers are paying a lot of attention to Will result in an Academy Award at some point, certainly.
Joseph:I'm just not sure Nosferatu is.
Jules:That film Is the film collaboration that cinematographers are paying a lot of attention to. It will result in an Academy Award at some point.
Joseph:I'm just not sure. Nosferatu is.
Jules:That film Is the film, especially against a film like the Brutalist, which is a Best Picture nominee. But it will happen certainly very, very soon, and so I'm going to point to that being the spoiler here. I don't like that. Amelia Perez didn't get an ASC nomination. Yeah.
Joseph:And as well as Maria Maria Missing the BAFTA nomination.
Jules:And so, yeah, I'm going to say comfortably that Anasul Ratu is a spoiler here, but by a very large margin, very far away from the favorite, which is going to be the Brutalist.
Joseph:Right. And then you know, I think the only open door that Dune has here is that sometimes when they award a cinematographer they get a little bit in love with their work. We know, that they liked Greg Frazier's work in the first one. Is it enough for them to want to go and give it an award here? Again, huge downgrade in nominations from part one to part two.
Joseph:But you know, certainly you see Dune, and again it was promoted as such a big visual spectacle for the big screen, see Dune, and again, it was promoted as such a big visual spectacle for the big screen, and so I have no doubt that some voters are going to. You know, mark that down, especially if you're one of the voters who knows how many there were. I guess you will find out soon.
Jules:If that could not, you know, sit or tolerate you know all three and a half hours of the brutalist Right. That's a very good point. I agree with you.
Joseph:I don't like.
Jules:I don't think Greg Frazier will win again after winning for Dune part one, especially with the downgrade, as you were saying. Um, but yeah, I, I, I feel pretty good about that. The Brutalist certainly the winner and Nosferatu is the runner up.
Joseph:I agree, I'll take both of those as well.
Jules:Okay, and now let's move on to the last category of this episode, below the line text final predictions. Let's go with best film editing. The nominees are the Brutalist Amelia Perez, conclave Wicked and Enora.
Joseph:Well, listen, I think this is probably going to be maybe the hardest category to predict.
Jules:I was going to say that that, like we said in our sound design category, a category like film editing can make or break your Oscar pool. So you really want to try to pay as much attention as possible to trying to get this category right. Unfortunately, it's one of the hardest categories to get right. Um, as we'll see in a minute, technically, really, any one of these films can win this award for film editing and they all have their pros and cons and they all have their reason that it would make sense for them to win and the reasons why it wouldn't. So this is going to be a very tough category I mean, this thing is really all over the place.
Joseph:Um, I think let's start where we have for almost every other category. Let's start with bafta right, bafta gave category. Let's start with BAFTA Right? Bafta gave this to Conclave on the eve that Conclave would win Best Picture also. So Conclave won Best Film Editing, which has made it the favorite, I think, amongst most people.
Joseph:It certainly, you know, was a huge win in its sale, going up against the Nora right, right, um. So one reason why this category is so important is because it has the breadcrumbs as to what may or what may not happen for best picture Exactly. You know, it's always good to remember that, ever since CODA, you know all these rules are completely, you know, disposable. So you know you never know when Dune part two is going to come out and win best picture, and only best picture. It's possible, it could happen Murphy's Law, whatever CODA, coda's Law, but anyway, you know, that's why we're always looking at Best Film. Editing is because we're trying to figure out who has the edge in picture.
Joseph:And so BAFTA gave this award to Conclave. The BAFTA nominees that overlapped with the Academy were Conclave, onora and Amelia Perez, and I think that you know those are three pretty good nominations for what some may argue were the films that at one point or another in the closing last two months, have held a strong position, a strong argument for winning Best Picture. Before the Amelia Perez nosedive, it was, you know, the emilia perez nosedive, it was, you know, the momentum has kind of gone emilia perez, onora, conclave, somewhat right, so it's kind of interesting that those are the three bapta oscar overlaps.
Joseph:Um, that's important and I'll bring that up, but just for quick context. You know, the the editors have a guild, the ace eddie. Um, the majority of these films got nominated all of them except the brutalutalist, but it's a little, um, maybe not worth going through them too heavily, because the Ace Eddie which is actually, I think, a smart decision have decided to come out with their winners until after Oscar nominations. So they factored in a little bit more in terms of guiding people as to who the nominees would be or should be or could be, and a little less so as to who the eventual winner will be. It might be interesting to see who those winners are after. Oscar night actually.
Joseph:Yeah, so we look forward to that Um. But so let's concentrate on the BAFTA Um, and why I think that's important is because, for the most part, the winner should be among the BAFTA nominees. As far as I can tell, the last film to be able to win this award without a BAFTA nomination was the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, and so that, you know, maybe lends a little bit of a lifeline to a film like Wicked and to a film like the Brutalists who aren't on here, but the vast majority of the time it will go to a film that is a BAFTA nominee, and we know which three of those are. But in trying to sort of determine which film stands a chance to win this among those, let's look at some of the overlap with other categories, and I think the best one to start out with is sound. Sound, yeah.
Jules:There's a lot of overlap between those two categories.
Joseph:Exactly, as a voter, sometimes you tend to sort of split your brain into, you know, categories that were important before cameras rolled and as cameras rolled, so that's pre-production and production, and then categories that were important post-production. And so, no surprise here, categories like sound and film editing. They tend to go hand in hand, right, and you know the craft. In and of themselves there's a lot of mirroring to them, similar interfaces, similar tools. So it's no surprise that voters in general, I think they're looking at these categories together and I think you know you're at least mindful as to who you put.
Joseph:And so the last film to win without a sound nomination was actually pretty recent, which is Everything, everywhere, all at Once, and some people pegged it as a sound nominee that year because it was the best picture favorite, because it looked like it would win film editing. But it did not get the nomination. And despite being well rewarded for sound that year, but it did not get that nomination, and despite being well rewarded for sound that year, um, it missed out that Oscar nomination, but it did manage to win that Oscar for best film editing. Um, interestingly enough, it also won the BAFTA for best film editing.
Joseph:And this is again a movie that was not very popular at the BAFTA, but but so much of everything, everybody was at once watching it. You sort of realize that it's going to be an easy ticket for a voter to sort of stamp that as my choice for best film editing. You know, not unlike Oppenheimer with a lot of moving parts. You know, sometimes voters, they vote for the most overt thing. As you said what sound? What's? What's the loudest? What has the most sound right, Exactly.
Joseph:So what has the most cuts? The most cuts as equals the best cuts. And you have to understand, you have to sort of think that if that's the mindset they're going to bring, you know it certainly does not bode great for a movie like onora, which is beautifully cut.
Joseph:But it's also very subtle work, very tonal work, has a lot of shifting tones to it yeah but it's not a movie that they're going to say is the most cut now, barring sort of everything everywhere all at once. The last movies that were able to do it without a sound nomination were 2006 for the Departed and 2005 for Crash. So if Onora somehow does manage to win this award, you have to sort of think that it's going to follow the trajectory of those three films and pick up that trophy at the end.
Joseph:And I would also argue that you know if Onora is that kind of film if you look at Crash with its three wins. The Departed picked up four out of five nominations and Everything Everywhere All at Once went crazy. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to believe that if Onora picks up this prize, onora is going to have a really good night. And.
Joseph:Onora, might, you know, sit really nicely in that, you know, uh, three out of six, four out of six area. So that's why all eyes are going to be on this category. But it's worth mentioning in the case of Onora that you know, one very sort of interesting aspect to its nomination here is that the director is also the editor here. Sean Baker is the nominee for best film editing for anora, yeah, and so you know, we talk about how anora could possibly stand to win without that sound nomination, which is pretty important, um, and following the steps of crash that departed everything everywhere, um, but if you kind of look at it, you know, you kind of have to wonder if, if it does lose this category, you know, if part of it isn't going to be the idea of deshaun baker.
Jules:Do we have to get sean baker exactly or three awards exactly, his first time breaking through with the academy.
Joseph:That's exactly my point, and my comparisons are that director editors can win this category, and I think most recently you'll see alfonso coron win this category for gravity he's a co-editor on that and roderick james win the category in 2007 for no country for all men, which is really just the coen brothers. Um, and so it does happen. It happened for both those films, one of which one best picture, the other one one best director. But you know, the thing about both those uh nominations and those wins is that alfonso coron had been nominated in that category before, in 2006 for children of men, and roderick james had been nominated before in 1996 for fargo. And so, as far as I know this would be, this is sean baker's first nomination. Sense that. Are they also going to have him sort of break history and and win on his first direct editing nomination, right as a director editor.
Joseph:Um, and then you know, when we talk about the disadvantage of not having that sound nomination and having to sort of walk the path of three films in particular, crash, the departed, everything everywhere. You know, onora is sort of joined with Conclave, right, which was the BAFTA winner and is not a sound nominee either, right, and the problem is that a lot of people have sort of flocked to the idea that Conclave has more moving parts to its narrative, so it's a more tempting choice, and that it's going to repeat its nomination at BAFTA.
Joseph:You know, my research shows that conclave has a huge problem winning this category yeah which is that, like a nora, it's not a sound nominee, um, but more importantly, it's not a directing nominee, and if you look at this category, the number of movies to win this category without either a sound nomination or a directing nomination are so scant that it has to be a huge red flag if you're trying to campaign. Conclave for this At BAFTA, where it won Best Film Editing. It was a Best Director nominee.
Joseph:Exactly Right. In fact, edward Berger is a multiple nominee there and a previous winner, but in this particular organization he's never been honored for director and in this instance in particular, he got overlooked for best director as well. As the film got overlooked for sound and you and I, after seeing it the first time, thought it would maybe qualify for sound or be competitive in sound. It was not maybe qualify for sound or be competitive at sound. It was not. So the last film that I could find that was able to win this category without either a best director nomination or a best editing nomination goes all the way back to 1950. Whoa, when King Solomon's minds, which happened to be a best picture movie, was able to win this category and cinematography, um, and lose best picture Um, interestingly enough, conclave is not an iron for cinematography and lose best picture. Interestingly enough, conclave is not an iron for cinematography either. I think that goes to show that, while a lot of people are putting their money on Conclave, that is a huge, huge risk.
Joseph:You're talking about not only repeating or trying to mimic Onora's path via the crash departed. Everything everywhere route, but crash departed and everything everywhere. They were all directing nominees. Even something like crash still managed to be a directing nominee.
Jules:With these stats, it becomes clear that, ironically, clownclave is the favorite for this category, but in reality it's the weakest in this category One, would think.
Joseph:At least you know we talk about as we make these predictions. What are we going to pay attention to? Right stats are finding the balance between stats and momentum right and certainly right now. The momentum is with conclave. Right after that, after you would think it is the favorite, but if you analyze the stats it is the most vulnerable film after the buddha list, which missed a bunch of nominations. Which doesn't mean that it's out Again. King Solomon's Mines did it in 1950.
Joseph:It just means that it's one hell of a mountain to climb. And I don't think it's incidental because, like I said, I think when voters are looking at film editing they do have in mind sound, and there are so many film editing winners that are also sound nominees Maybe not sound winners, but sound nominees. Like I said, I came up with three titles Crash, the Departed, everything, every While I Want. All the other recent titles happen to be sound nominees or winners. Whether it's Bohemian Rhapsody or Sound of Metal, they all tend to have a little bit of DNA and residue there.
Joseph:And the other thing is, you know, most people in the industry talk about how film editing is so tied with directing. Right, you want to be a director?
Joseph:Well, the first thing you have to do is be a good editor learn from the editing room, be an assistant editor, and so you know, the craft of directing and the craft of editing are so intertwined that again I had to go all the way back to 1950, in the era of cinema, where again a movie like King Solomon's Mind is going to be an honor for three awards, including Best Picture, because it was just shot in color. You know, it's such a long, long trajectory of it not happening that this has to be terrible, terrible news for Conclave. Right.
Joseph:Especially if they're trying to you know, make this. You know the sort of hill that they plant their flag on, as to why they're going to win Best Picture.
Jules:Right and I would say you know you're making, you're bringing up excellent points that I think far too few people are paying attention to and using those stats that you just mentioned a Nor on the Brutalist benefit from a Best Director nomination, wicked benefits from a Best Sound nomination and, oddly enough, emilia Perez benefits from both, which is also kind of ironic, I would say, because Emilia Perez ties the editor from Wicked as being the only individuals with multiple nominations here.
Joseph:The editor from Amelia Perez, very famous in the French industry and has sort of dipped her toe in the American industry with films like the Hunger Games and Ocean's 8.
Joseph:She was nominated for her work on the Diving Bell and the Butterfly right, and then, of course, the editor from Wicked was nominated not too, long ago for his musical work in Tick, tick, boom, right, and so it's sort of interesting that you bring that up, right Is that Conclave here is the only film without either of those things and it makes it extremely vulnerable. And, nora, because Conclave has that, you know that director snub, when they win film editing. You know, both of those years, uncoincidentally, in my opinion, they happen to be years where there's only one sound nominee. There, you know, the only sound nominee that could have beaten Crash was Walk the Line, not a Best Picture nominee, and the only sound nominee that could have beaten the Departed was Blood Diamond. A lot of the other times in history, when there is at least two movies that have a sound nomination, it tends to favor one of them. This is certainly true of, you know, years where there's three sound nominees, but also true when there's two, and there's even been instances where there's again just one, that are more recently, just one sound nominee among the film editing nominees and it still tended to benefit the sound film.
Joseph:So I'm thinking most recently of something like 2018, where a film like Vice, which is really edited, you know, lost to other Best Picture nominees like the F, the Favorite and Black Klansman, but the winner was really Bohemian Rhapsody. Bohemian Rhapsody was the only sound nominee between that and Black Klansman, the Favorite Green Book, and Vice right, and so when voters got sort of posed as to, well, who am I going to give it to there? I mean, vice is extremely edited. It has a best director nomination, right. They still went for the movie that had sort of the bigger sound element. So what I'm trying to say there is that that's sort of the angle that if something like Emilia Perez or Wicked wins, that's what they're sort of playing. One could argue that Emilia Perez, beyond having sort of the more veteran editor to be nominated back in 2007 and having a directing nomination and having a sound nomination, that of the two it would be, you know, the more tempting choice, but with the nosedive that the campaign has taken.
Joseph:you know, you kind of wonder if it gets surprised there, if it's an absolute impossibility. Wicked doesn't have a directing nomination, it only has the sound nomination. But surprisingly enough, this is a category where you really don't need that directing nomination as often as you would think. You know we had a huge span in time.
Joseph:It's more integral to have Right, where a film without a directing nomination won it. So some of those films were Bohemian Rhapsody, some of those films were the Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, argo. These are all titles that managed to win this category without a directing nomination and still having a presence and sound. Exactly, look at something like Whiplash or Hacksaw Ridge, right 4V Ferrari. You don't need a directing sort of background hero nomination to pull off that win. What you need to be is, as I said, with those films, kind of sound heavy and spectacle heavy and film editing heavy. I don't think there's a huge film this year that yells. It's the most cut, but certainly when you look at the work at Wicked, there is a lot of cuts in it. Right, it's also his second nomination.
Joseph:The campaign isn't nosediving. It's a nominee for sound. It could possibly win sound, so I think it stands a really good chance of possibly stealing a nod here and then I think I'm sorry a win here. I think the only detriment it has is that we're sort of kind of on a mini streak. Right when that since 2020, since the pandemic, the previous winners here have all been screenplay movies, which emilia perez is, but wicked is not right, you know, sound of metal was a screenplay nominee, dune, everything every well at once, oppenheimer they were all screenplay nominees.
Joseph:So is wicked going to be the film that sort of breaks that mini streak and takes us back to that sort of era where again those films could win, like hacksaw ridge, like dunkirk, um, without um writing nominations. Of hacksaw ridge has a direct nomination, so did dunkirk, but they did not have writing nominations. Um, bohemian rhapsody won without either. It didn't have a writing nomination or directing nomination, it was just the sound. And is Wicked going to be the film that brings us back to that sort of a moment in time where you know, I don't really care that it doesn't have either of those things, it's just my preference here because it's a bigger sound movie.
Jules:Right exactly.
Joseph:Look, I think this is going to be one of the toughest categories to predict and I think it could be full of surprises.
Joseph:The Conclave win, win, which I think uncle derby it's the favorite right now in and of itself would be a surprise again 1950 yeah and so I think that any one of these films could potentially come and upset even someone like emilia perez has the veteran sort of editor there and it has the directing, the screenplay and the sound. So I mean, I really think it's anyone's game. I think that you, you know, most recently, everything Everywhere was able to pull off, won that.
Joseph:I mean, I don't think onora is that type of film right but if it does win this, it'll be because, again, sometimes it's more important to sort of vote for your favorite. Um, I don't know who you're thinking right now. Um, who are you possibly thinking as the winner here and the spoiler?
Jules:I, I think I agree with you. This is one of the hardest categories to predict, and the more that we talk about it, the less attractive Conclave appears. And it's also the favorite, which is ironic. A movie like Wicked seems incredibly attractive.
Jules:Mentioned a couple of times this, this episode, the kind of spectacle driven film that ends up over-performing, like Doom Part Part One recently, and getting a big, a big uh haul of of wins on Oscar night. Um, it could surprise in visual effects, it could surprise here in in in film editing, it could surprise in sound, and so it could really end up being a film that walks out with five Academy Award wins out of its 10 nominations. That's a very distinct possibility. And yet it's probably the most, the least popular film amongst the group to win this category. That's odd. At the same time, you could go in the other direction and give more weight to a film like Onora and the Brutalist, and even Amelia Perez, if you want, as films that have both a directing nomination and a screenplay nomination. Maybe if we take out Amelia Perez, because there's no salvaging it to win.
Jules:The campaign, exactly the campaign. But also there's no way it's going to win Best Picture than possibly. You know, it's kind of a throwaway vote. If you vote for Amelia Paris. Um, uh, nora and the Brutalists have screenplay nominations, have director nominations and either of them could also take this category. Um, it's really, really tough. Um, I'm really not sure who's going to win this category and I'm very much wavering. So, whatever I say now, I'm still going to be thinking about it.
Joseph:Oh yeah, I might change it.
Jules:I might change it back and forth, back and forth. I know that I don't want to vote for Conclave, because there's just too many red flags. There's just too many red flags. Again, it would be surprising you know, will I be shocked if it happens and it continues with the momentum that it's had at the. Fafta I. I won't be shocked but, like we said, the stats are very much against it, it's tough.
Jules:So right now I'm going to say that amidst this group. I also don't think there's in this group even Wicked that has, quote unquote, lots of cuts. I don't think in this group there's a lot of there's any film that's ostentatiously edited. Super edited In such a way where it just screams you gotta, you gotta vote for me for for best editing. Well, conclave's. Conclave's a thriller, supposedly, yes, but even. But there's a nuance to sort of its its craft Right.
Jules:And so, with with that in mind, I think you're right. Voters will end up choosing the film they most preferred, as opposed to the film that they think is most cut.
Jules:And so I think that that benefits a film like Onora, who I think will do well in the preferential ballot and will do well at the end of Oscar night, as we'll see soon in our next episode. And so I have a temptation to say that in this group, taking out Conclave, you know know, the film that stands out the most as you know, the stronger of the group is an aura, which is no surprise. It has a direct nomination, it has a writing nomination. Um has acting nominations. So my pick is going to be an aura and my spoiler is going to be wicked um. I know it. I know it's not a popular choice whatsoever. I like its sound nomination. I think it has the potential to surprise and get more wins than people think.
Jules:Right now people feel very comfortable with production design and costume design.
Joseph:It can easily overperform. It can balloon.
Jules:It overperformed in nominations, case in point. So my runner up is going to be Wicked Um, and you know this is pretty unfortunate for Amelia Parrish, because I've actually had the best case scenario to win this category you know, with its down nomination, with its directing nomination, with its writing nomination, it really had everything it needed to win this category.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And it just goes to show you you know everything that gets lost when you know your campaign goes you know haywire. Yeah, and so Emilia Perez was should have been the winner in this category. It's not going to be. I believe my pick is Anora. My spoiler is Wicked and I'm very very confused.
Joseph:I'm going to change this five minutes after we're done talking and five minutes before they hand out the award. So really I can just give you my best gut reaction with everything. That sort of the research and numbers sort of show likes the idea of Nora following in the steps of Crash and Departed and being a contemporary sort of film that had less nominations but was able to capitalize on its sort of you know, larger economic and political themes about the United States and that sort of leads to a Best Picture win that includes a Best Editing win and a Directing win and possibly a Screenplay win and, like the Departed, ends up, you know, winning something like four awards, something like Paris had as well, four awards, three to four awards. Crash won three. So part of me likes that. But when I really inspect, you know, the film and I put it against films like the Departed and Crash, I think just voters are going to see that there are more moving parts to those contemporary films, whether it's Crash, the Departed, everything, every wall at once. So because of that I'm going to say that that's going to be the determining factor, that the subtle sort of tonal work that's going on there for Onora is going to, you know, bury it, bury its chances here. Not to mention I also don't like the whole Cuaron Roderick James stat that they won on their second nomination and this is only Sean Baker's first nomination as an editor. So I'm actually going to give the edge to Wicked right now. I think it has enough cuts. I don't think there's anything that's too much more overly edited. I think Amelia Perez would be perfect, but it's sort of nosedived here. It would be really interesting if it wins at the end. Like I said, she is the more veteran nominee but I'm going to go with Wicked. It has those multiple nominations.
Joseph:I think this category has shown that it doesn't need to have a directing nomination to win. It doesn't need to have a writing nomination to win. A lot of times it's spectacle and I think Wicked has that in aces and it has that sound nomination, possibly a sound win, and I think that the category has shown historically that prefer that than a Nora sort of being considered as edited, as everything everywhere Crash or the Departed and I also like it more than Conclave beating. You know so many years of history and going all the way back to 1950. Now if Conclave manages to beat that history and be the first one since 1950, then I really have no doubt in my mind that it's going to be a Conclave night at Best Picture and people are going to.
Joseph:I can see it now, the headlines that you know. People talk about 10 years from now or five years from now when they totally rejudge this movie and call it a piece of crap, which, again, I enjoy this movie, I enjoyed Conclave. I enjoyed all the movies I like Conclave, conclave, you know, a really enjoyable film. But again, if it does win Best Picture, if it does win editing, people are going to call it crap, unfortunately.
Joseph:But I can see people saying we should have known, we should have known, you know when Conclave is strong enough to beat, you know the idea of winning best film editing, without directing and without sound. We should have known that it was going to be able to sort of win best picture. I can see people complaining about it now, the same way that if a Nora wins this category, I can see people sort of praising it, sort of you know, as a, we should have known that a Nora was going to win like four or five awards and Mikey Madison was going to win too, because you got to give him more awards because they just fell in love with it. Because it didn't have that sound nomination, it still won. But so my favorite is Wicked for the Win and my spoiler is, knowing the Academy that I've observed and the coda of it all, I would say Conclave makes King Solomon's Mind's history and wins editing and picture at the end.
Jules:I think those are good points. I wouldn't go that far, you know. I don't think that if Conclave in the event were to win this award, it would automatically mean that it's going to win Best Picture. The same way that I wouldn't say that if Wicked wins this award and ends up having four or five wins, oh that's it, Wicked is going to win Best.
Jules:Picture. I treat it that way. I'm not necessarily sure that either of those wins would point me in that direction personally, but I will say something that I just thought about right now, and you brought up a really good point with the editing nomination for the Coen Brothers films and the editing nomination for the-. The.
Jules:Fulton Carone films, I will say that their situation is different from Sean Baker in a way, because they haven't edited all of their films, whereas Sean Baker, as an editor, has been an integral part as an editor in all of his films I believe all of his films. I believe all of his films. And so very much in the DNA of a filmmaker of Sean Baker's caliber is that he edits his own films, that sometimes he's a co-editor but he edits his own films. So it's not the same as Alfonso Cuaron dipping his toes into editing a certain number of features in his, in his overall but you know so much a part of the Sean Baker package is that he's a do-it-all himself artist and so he directs and he produces and he writes and he edits. That is, I think, part of the reason that Sean Baker is finally getting celebrated for his work to such an extent, because he kind of epitomizes that kind of artist in a way a do-it-all-yourself artist, and that's part of the beauty of the package that is Sean Baker I'm looking at.
Jules:That differentiates Sean Baker from someone like Alfonso Cuaron and artists like the Coen brothers that I think might really just make the difference here as to why he's able to prevail and win on his first nomination as an editor, because editors are already aware, as well as some filmmakers are aware, that editing is just part of the Sean Baker package and that's not the case so much with Alfonso Cuaron or with the Coen brothers. So I will say that that's something that's going for Sean Baker and that's why I'm sticking to my guns and saying Sean Baker, the winner in this category.
Joseph:It's a strong point. I think it's a very strong point. I mean, I would have liked it if maybe Sean Baker would have gotten a guild nod beforehand for either the florida project or maybe red rocket in the comedy section in 2021. That would have given me a little bit more of an understanding that you know voters are appreciating him, as you said, as that kind of artist right now. I'm just afraid that for most voters, you know, the idea of what you just expressed is going to be a bridge too far for them and and they're just going to, they're just going to come at it from a perspective of, okay, well, what had the most cuts and what would demand the most cuts? Right, right, yeah, well, I mean, listen, this category right here is absolute murder.
Jules:And, like I said, look for this category to be, like sound, the thing that makes or breaks your Oscar pool. So just watch out, keep alert and try your best. If you're you know doing your bets, you know part of your Oscar party. This is something you want to try to get right as much as possible.
Jules:Yeah, yeah, all right. Well, that has been a very lengthy episode, but we tackled so many categories in this episode. Yeah, giving our final predictions, it's been fun. Our next episode will be the above the line categories. We'll be looking at screenplay, at acting, at director and our picture.
Joseph:Stay tuned.
Jules:And we'll be giving our final predictions there. Um, and we look forward to, uh, assessing that. You know, we're really getting close to the end of all this and it's getting sort of you know the butterflies in your stomach stage. You wonder what's going to happen. Um, maybe it would just be disappointing. It's just all downhill. Yeah, you know, right at the start of the ceremony. But anyway, we went through a lot. Thanks for staying with us, thanks for listening to us and considering our points. Um, we look forward to our next episode and until then, this is jules and I'm joseph, and it's been a pleasure.
Jules:The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Tp//creativecommonsorg licenses buy 3.0.
Joseph:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.