Academy Anonymous
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2024-2025; Final Predictions for Oscar Night, Part 2; Chalamet SAG win exposes Brody’s vulnerability for Best Actor; Fernanda Torres and Demi Moore Neck-And-Neck for Best Actress; “Anora” fights off a “Conclave” upset
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- CONCLAVE an easy call for Adapted Screenplay. Can any other film catch up?
- ANORA loses ground in Original Screenplay, but can A REAL PAIN really capitalize on a BAFTA win after its Best Picture snub?
- Kieran Culkin undefeated in Supporting Actor Race
- Why Zoe Saldaña will cruise to a win in Supporting Actress; Isabella Rossellini too far behind
- Can Adrien Brody stop the late-breaking surge for Timothée Chalamet? Or will Oscars choose Bob Dylan over giving Brody two Lead Actor Oscars?
- Demi Moore vs Fernanda Torres vs Mikey Madison; one of Oscars biggest upsets is brewing, and her name is TORRES
- Is Sean Baker in the clear for Best Director?
- It's PGA & DGA winner VS. SAG & BAFTA winner for the big prize, again
- ANORA vs CONCLAVE for Best Picture; get ready for a great night for ANORA
hey, welcome back to academy, anonymous, I'm jules and I'm joseph, and this is part two of our final predictions for the academy awards. The last episode dealt with below the line categories everything from editing to cinematography, to sound design, to visual effects the documentary feature the works. Please check out that episode if you haven't. And this episode will deal with the above the line categories. We'll be focusing on screenplay, on acting, on directing and finally picture. So let's get right into it. There's a lot to go through. Let's start with adapted screenplay.
Joseph:I think are arguably out of this group is maybe the easiest category to predict should be the easiest category, if, if the predicted favorite does not win, something went wrong. Uh, the nominees for refresher were a complete unknown conclave emilia perez, nickel boys and sing, sing. So what are you thinking?
Jules:Great. I think the favorite is obviously Conclave and I think amidst this group it's the clear winner. I really don't see much to derail Conclave. To be honest, I think this is the one award that Conclave has in the bag. It has ever since it won that Golden Globe Best Screenplay. I think that this film in the bag, um, it has ever since it won that golden globe uh, best screenplay. Um, I think that this film makes perfect sense why it's sort of become the favorite in the best adapted screenplay category. Um, you know, just narrative, narratively, the way the film you know works and navigates its themes is something that you know um would appeal to uh writers as a, as a whole. Um, and you know it's sort of delicious, sort of intrigue is something that it's going to appeal uh widely to an Academy when they're considering what's the best screenplay here, um from an adapted source. Yeah.
Jules:So it makes perfect sense why Conclave is number one here. So I think Conclave is absolutely the winner here, and if I had to say a spoiler, I would probably say an outside chance, very outside chance, of Nickel Boys storming in and stealing, sort of in a shock, the best adapted screenplay category. Only because it's such a radical adaptation, the film is still managed, with Plan B's help, to get a Best Picture nomination.
Joseph:And when it's gold, the adapted screenplay Right.
Jules:I think there is a contingent within the Academy that's passionate about that film, and so I certainly can. I mean I think it's. I'm not sure I would even go so far as to label it possible, but if I had to come up with a spoiler, it would be that film and the sort of passionate group of people that are probably supporting that film and voting for that film. But again, I just think the gap is way too large between Nickel Boys and Conclave.
Joseph:Yeah, I agree. I agree with both your front runner and the spoiler. I think Peter Straughan. This is not his first nomination. He's the writer from tinker trey's order spy technically a lot of sort of overlap between that movie and conclave, so I think this should be an easy win for conclave. Um, I think if conclave misses this, then I think us like the majority of pundits got this completely backwards and serious trouble for conclave.
Jules:Yeah, um, but I think things will turn out well for it here in this category for sure. This completely backwards and serious trouble for Colin Cliff, yeah, but I think things will turn out well for it here in this category for sure. Now let's move on to a very interesting category.
Joseph:In original screenplay, the nominees are the nominees were Onora the Brutalist, a Real Pain, september 5, and the Substance.
Jules:Now, I think the BAFTA win for A Real Pain made this category more interesting. I know the Substance won the Greatest.
Jules:Choice Award. We had toyed with the idea of the Substance being a bigger threat in this category, because the filmmaker, the director, is also the writer, coralie Fargeau. She has a best director nomination. If the Academy wanted to support a female filmmaker in the writing category because they weren't going to support her in the best director category, then she would stand a great chance of upsetting here. That being said, as the days and weeks have gone, gone by, I've become less confident in a movie like the substance.
Jules:Um, I've become more concerned that that film is maybe uh, you know repelling people more than it is pulling people in yeah and so I think that it's sort of fallen into third place in this group of nominees, and I I would say that the again the BAFTA win for A Real Pain has really made this a race between will A Real Pain win the original screenplay category, despite not having a Best Picture nomination, over Onora, which is one of the favorites for Best Picture and clearly you know a film that has, yeah, several nominations, several important nominations.
Jules:You and I were two people who were predicting a real pain to get a best picture nomination when it missed that nomination. You and I thought that was a bad sign for screenplay. Again, the bafta win put some more win in its sails. Um, I will say that something that we were looking at for this category was how often, as of late as a trend, has the original screenplay winner had some crossover with the toronto's people choice, the toronto's people's choice award yeah at the toronto international film festival and we found some pretty good correlation.
Jules:You know, ever since 2010 they've only missed three years when a movie mentioned in some kind of you know placement in the toronto's people's choice, whether it be first place, second place or third place. They haven't always had three, three, three places, but somewhere along that group of films selected as the people's Choice Award winner and runner-ups. Since 2010, there's only been three years where they didn't coincide, or at least a film in that group didn't win a screenplay Oscar, and I think, if you think about that, that's a pretty interesting stat. And the three years were 2020, when Promising Young Woman won, and that year, I believe, nomadland, one Eye, miami and Beans, a Canadian film, I believe were the films that made Toronto's People's Choice one, two and three. Obviously Promising Young Woman had premiered, I believe, in.
Joseph:Sundance yeah.
Jules:And so it didn't have a chance. It was also the pandemic year.
Joseph:Yeah, it was the pandemic.
Jules:So that's something to keep in mind. 2016, manchester by the Sea wins, and at the Toronto People's Choice, you have La La Land, which was in contention for screenplay, lost to Manchester by the Sea. You have Lion, which was also nominated, and you have Queen of Catouet. And then you have 2011, when Woody Allen won for Midnight in Paris and the winner for the Toronto People's Choice Award was when Do we Go Now? And the runner-ups were Starbuck and A Separation Right. So, barring those three years since 2010, a winner in that group of films for Toronto's People's Choice has actually won an Oscar for screenplay. I think again, like I said, that's a really interesting stat. Yeah.
Jules:And I would say that that kind of leaves us with only two options. Yeah, considering that Mike Flanagan's film won the Toronto's People's Choice Award and that's not coming out until later this year, that only leaves you with Emilia Perez and Onoraora for one of them to pick up exactly at least one of them. I don't know if there have been years when more than one there might have been have won a screenplay oscar, but certainly at least one film in that group should win a screenplay oscar yeah um, considering recent trends, and if we discard emilia paris, because to begin with it's kind of a weird screenplay nominee because they don't typically nominate musicals or they haven't in a long while.
Jules:There's been a really dry spell and also we consider the nosedive of the campaign. That really leaves Nora in a really prime position to really be one of the films that placed in the Toronto People's Choice and wins this award for original screenplay. Yeah. And so I think that's something that's really something to keep an eye out for why Onora really stands to prevail in this category.
Joseph:That gives it an edge. And I think also you and I have gone back and looked at the original screenplay category and we had trouble finding a movie to win that category right that was not nominated for best picture.
Jules:I think we had to go all the way back to 2004 to when eternal sunshine the spotless mind yeah was able to win that category, interestingly enough, in a year where obviously there was no expansion and there were only five nominees for all we know. In 2004, eternal sunshine might have been a best picture nominee in spots 10, 9, 8. Who knows?
Jules:certainly, uh, but we went we went as far back as 2000 and we found eternal sunshine, the spotless mind. Another film we found was talk to her, which had a best director nomination. Maybe that would have made a year a best picture in a year of 10 or or, or nine or eight or whatever. And then you also had almost Famous, which for certain would have been a film that would have made an expansion list an expanded list of best picture.
Joseph:And what's kind of interesting about all of those I mean specifically about 2004, eternal Sunshine of a Spotless Mind and 2002, talk to Her is that if you look and you analyze those years and those nominees for best original screenplay, you know in 2004, the only Best Picture movie to be nominated for Original Screenplay was the Aviator, the only top five movie there. And the same happened in 2002 when Talk to Her wins that award. I believe there was only one Best Picture movie to be nominated in that category. I think it was Gangs of New York. And so the number of movies nominated those years that weren't best picture nominees drastically overwhelmed those that were best picture nominees. And so if that's the case, it's in the, the odds are in the favor of the films that were not right, not nominated for best picture. You have a four and five shot. But that's not the case this year.
Jules:Right, this year you have An substance and the brutalist, all of her best picture, even if a real pain didn't make it at the end right right, which means that you have a three and five shot, that the winner for best original screenplay is a best picture nominee right, and I also want to say, as we pointed out last episode, anora was mysteriously, mysteriously did poorly at the BAFTA and still somehow won best actress. Yeah.
Jules:But don't put too much stock on the winners for the BAFTA screenplay category. They've been kind of shoddy, especially as of late. You know if you remember Banshees of Inisharan. Licorice Pizza One exactly Licorice Pizza, the Favorites, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri. All those were films that won recently the BAFTA Best Original Screenplay category, and still lost the Oscar.
Joseph:Yeah, it didn't materialize at the Academy Awards.
Jules:Right so I wouldn't put too much stock on A Real Pain winning at the BAFTAs. Also, we have to consider again the very big glaring sort of hiccup here is that again it's a big deal that a film like A Real Pain didn't make Best Picture. Yeah. And that it's up against three other films that did. Yeah.
Jules:And so that really puts it at a disadvantage, as we've been saying. But also the likelihood what is the likelihood? That A Real Pain, nominated for two Academy Awards a supporting actor for Kieran Culkin and Best Original Screenplay is going to walk out having won those two awards and not have made it to Best Picture Absolutely In a year of 10.
Joseph:Exactly. I mean, the odds of a film going perfect without a Best Picture nomination are so unlikely. And to that point I think we looked at the winners for the Writer's Guild Award where Onora did triumph over a real Pain and we couldn't really find any instances where the Writers Guild Award winner for original screenplay didn't match up with the Oscars choice for original screenplay, unless it was somehow disqualified, for example something like Birdman. But Onora beat A Real Pain and the only film that sort of came back from a loss at the Writers Guild Award to then go ahead and win at the academy awards because it was eligible for the writers guild award was green book, which was the again eventual best picture winner, which is not going to be the case for real pain this year because it's not nominated exactly.
Jules:So all that to say that you know I think anora is in really good shape here to win this award. Um, and that threats like a real pain and the substance are not going to materialize, and so my predicted winner here is Onora and my spoiler would be, I guess, a real pain, considering it's BAFTA win, but I feel very confident about Onora winning this.
Joseph:I agree, I agree. I think it's Onora's to lose and I think a real pain is a distant second. All right, and I think A Real Pain is a distant second. All right, perfect, all right. So let's jump to the performance side of things and let's look at Best Supporting Actor. Let's start there and let's do a refresh of the nominees. The nominees were Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown, jeremy Strong in the Apprentice, guy Pearce in the Brutalist, kieran Culkin in A Real Pain and Yura Borisov in Nora, and almost all first timers here except Edward Norton. So I mean, we thought that would be a factor, I think. What do you think we're at now?
Jules:Right, I think, like a screenplay this is a like adapted screenplay. This is a very kind of easy category to predict. You and I had sort of um, we were inclined to think that Edward Norton would surprise, possibly here with the strength of a real, of, excuse me, a complete unknown. Um, and again, that never materialized. Um, after all the you know televised precursors, it became clear that Kieran Culkin was by by and large the favorite and that even Edward Norton on his fourth nomination, I believe wasn't going to derail that train. And especially after the BAFTAs where A Real Pain won the two awards it was nominated for, right, you know, it became clear that A Real Pain is not going to go out empty-handed from this Oscar ceremony and that the favorite is clearly Kieran Culkin. And Kieran Culkin will absolutely win this category. Um, I love that performance. It's my favorite of the group too. I think this is a great category. Yeah.
Jules:The Oscars. Typically, I don't feel as strongly about the supporting actor category. This year it's terrific yeah.
Joseph:It's great they're all great.
Jules:Um, if I had a ballot, I'd probably nominate all of them myself. Yeah. And so you know, really anybody winning this category. I'd be fine with Um so really great category, but again, kieran Culkin is the clear favorite. There's been some late breaking passion. Uh, if you were, you know, if you listen to the quote, unquote, you know, anonymous Oscar ballot. There's been some late breakingbreaking passion for Jeremy. Strong in the. Apprentice, which is interesting because now we have again this Kieran Culkin versus Jeremy.
Joseph:Strong sort of scenario. Yeah, yeah, I think that's what's happening to voters is that they're choosing between their favorite succession characters.
Jules:Exactly, and so you know it's sort of interesting to see them back in that sort of head-to-head match.
Jules:that being said, I still think jeremy strong is way too far behind yeah he's not going to eclipse kieran colkin here and uh, kieran, kieran colkin is the favorite it would be quite a surprise yeah, uh, kieran colkin wins in my opinion, and then I would say that the spoiler I'm actually, I'm actually, I'm actually going to still say would have been, or might be, edward Norton, for a complete unknown. Just again, those four nominations. He's playing a real life figure. That's very important for the academy, as we will see when we start talking about the lead acting categories. Um, you know, that's still something that you know I think technically could happen yeah so he's my spoiler.
Jules:But again, you know, the gap is far and wide, and so Kieran Culkin is clear, the clear winner here.
Joseph:I'm sensing the same thing. Remember at the SAG awards, when Kieran Culkin gave a really messy speech but, somehow, you know, it's always somewhat charming and disarming and very genuine, and it's, it's appealed to a lot of people, even if sometimes it's frustrating. But remember, at the SAG awards, when they were doing the I don't know the first time you got your sag card.
Jules:And you have kieran colkin there as a little boy in home alone.
Joseph:Yeah, I think that has some something to do with, you know, um, the reason he's winning.
Joseph:I mean, he's in a fantastic film, gives a great performance, he's had a great run on television, um, but he's also, you know, been a member of the industry for so long and I think people know that and people empathize with that and and it really appeals to their emotions, and I think he's carried the victory with sincerity, um, and so I think that, absolutely, I think this is a walk for colkin. He's won everything. He'll win the oscar. Um, the spoiler, I agree with you. I think edward norton has the edge there because he's's been nominated so many other times and he's playing a real life character.
Jules:Exactly, and so we're both in agreement there.
Joseph:Yeah, this should be easy for him.
Jules:All right, now we're moving on to best supporting actress.
Joseph:Right and the nominees. There were Isabella Rossellini for Conclave, monica Barbaro for A Complete Unknown, felicity Jones for the Brutalist, zoe Zaldana for Emilia Perez and Ariana Grande for Wicked.
Jules:All right and, as we mentioned early on when we were talking about in our last episode, original song, you know there's this. You know, thought that's sort of in the air for some pundits that Emilia Perez is going to go empty handed on Oscar night. And you know, while anything is possible, I certainly don't think that's the case. Um, I think if there's one nomination that I feel pretty comfortable predicting Amelia Paris to win, it is best supporting actress. I think there's a reason why, you know, even with all this controversy, you know, the Zoe Zaldana boat has remained afloat and steady.
Jules:Yeah, you know I don't think there are voters who are blaming her in any way whatsoever for the Carla tweets or forever for whatever controversy the film has met. Um, I think there's even people who might say that they think Zoe Zaldana is the best part of the movie. Um, and uh, she's done really, uh, really good speeches. She's carried herself very gracefully amidst all this controversy, um, and she's been a part of the industry for a while, you know, in big blockbuster films, mainstream films, um, some smaller films. So the industry is very much, you know, aware of her. Also, if and when zoe zoe zaldana wins this award, she would be the third, only the third Latina to win an acting award period, but certainly also, on top of that, the Best Supporting Actress award. Prior to her it was Ariana DeBose and prior to her was Rita Moreno. She would also be, you know, she is Dominican and part Puerto Rican. You know Ariana DeBose is part puerto rican, rita moreno is puerto rican, so there's some kind of you know yeah, trend there.
Joseph:Um, she would be the first one to win. Who is named maria right character? That's the name of the character in west side story, I think no, not, no no no.
Jules:Okay, no, that's the main character.
Joseph:I'm sorry, I forgot.
Jules:But also, interestingly enough, she would be the first Latina to win for a movie that isn't West Side Story.
Joseph:Yeah. But, it's nonetheless a musical. Yes.
Jules:Also, all winners have been musical, have been musicals, so that's interesting thing, um, but again, I don't see there being an issue here with regard to the uh sinking ship that is emilia paris and that bringing down zoe saldaña.
Jules:Um, I think she has this pretty much in the bag. To be honest, um, I think, if anything, emilia paris walks out with two wins, and the two wins, as we mentioned in our last episode, are intrins intrinsically tied together Best Supporting Actress and the song that she sings, el Mal. Right, if there's anybody to threaten her we've been sort of talking for a while it would be Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. Just recently, clayton Davis kind of sent a little bit of some shockwaves through Twitter, twitter, film Twitter, when he predicted that Zoe Saldana would lose this award and that Isabella Rossellini would win. I certainly don't see it outside the realm of possibility because, again, uh, isabella Rossellini is a, you know, an incredible actress who just recently got her first Oscar nomination, which makes no sense, um, and so, you know, an award given to her would be for her career more than it is, I think, for the part which is pretty small, um, but I don't see it outside the realm of possibility.
Jules:I could see that happening. I just think it's very unlikely. She's certainly the number two, as we have been saying for a while. People were on this train thinking that Ariana Grande was the number two and we always thought that that was extremely far-fetched and extremely unlikely. We've even seen you know again, if you are to listen to these, quote unquote you know anonymous Oscar ballots that someone like Monica Barbaro has a fair share of you know passion behind her, so we always thought that the Ariana Grande thing was not true.
Jules:Right. And now we know that someone like Monica Barbaro or, more importantly, isabel Rossellini are the only things preventing Zoe Saldana from winning this award, and I'm just not sure that Isabel Rossellini has enough, you know, going for her part to really trump. You know Zoe S going for her part to really trump you know Zoe Zardana at this moment.
Joseph:What do you think? I mean, this is the same Clayton Davis who wrote essentially that Amelia Perez was going to sweep every category four months ago, so you have to take everything he says with a grain of salt. I understand that. You know some people are really adamant or passionate that Amelia Perez gets completely shut out of every win. I do think Isabel Rossellini would be the second, but the idea that she wasn't nominated for a sag that she couldn't turn out a victory in any of the stops.
Joseph:I think is probably going to be the most um revealing thing, as, in terms of her shortcomings, I think there's also a little bit here of you know, david Lynch's recent passing the immortal David Lynch, who is extraordinary, you know that has sort of stoked, the sentimental, you know notion of some pundits and even some voters to want to cast the vote for her, because I feel that she's so, I don't know, entwined with his legacy.
Joseph:Yeah, yeah, still reeling from that. Yeah, of course. No, I mean there's, so I don't know entwined with his legacy.
Jules:Yeah, yeah, Still reeling from that.
Joseph:Yeah, of course no, I mean, there's no recovering from that. But, like I said, David Lynch is immortal. But you know, I think that that's where it comes from. Yeah. We have to go all the way back to someone like Marcia Gay Harden. Right. When Mar was sort of able to win this category for Pollock in the year 2000.
Jules:Without winning a Golden Globe, without winning or being nominated for a.
Joseph:Golden Globe for a Screen Actors Guild, for a BAFTA, for a Critics' Choice. So she's essentially coming from anonymity, except for something like the National Society of Film Critics mentioned and the New York Film Critics Circle win a nomination at the Film Independent Spirit Awards. But she's essentially coming from a very anonymous place and is sort of able to capitalize amidst all this chaos. Right, Because I think Judi Dench wins the SAG for Chocolat.
Jules:Yeah, Julie Walters wins the BAFTA. Julie Walters wins the BAFTA, fancy McDormand wins the Critics.
Joseph:a great choice, so between all the chaos, sort of the real life character and marsha gay harden are able to exploit that and come out with the win, not to mention um, you know that two of those four girls were previous winners judy dench and fred says, mcdormand. So between all that, she's sort of able to exploit that situation. But that hasn't been the case here. You know everyone has been unanimous on zo, even with, you know, the train wreck unfolding before their eyes. They still opted to give her the award.
Joseph:So I think that this is Zoe, and I agree. Second is Isabella Rossellini, but she is again a very far second.
Jules:And I will say that, you know, when Clayton Davis brought this up, he and some other. I've heard some more. You know some other rumblings throughout film Twitter that there's a surprise lurking in the acting categories. Um, that it's not, as you know, cut and paste, um, as it seems right now between the you know contenders that have mostly won all the precursors, the televised precursors, and I think to an extent that is true.
Jules:It's just not true for supporting actors yeah and we're gonna get to it pretty soon where I think that's actually gonna have more of a, of a rare.
Joseph:I think really the lead categories is where you're gonna find a little bit of a shake-up, exactly status quo exactly, and we'll get to that in a minute.
Jules:all right, so we're both in agreement. Zoe's aldania is the winner in this category and our spoiler is Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. Okay, so now we're going into our leading categories. Some interesting things bubbling to the surface here. Right. And so we're going to start with Best Actor.
Joseph:Great and the nominees for Best Actor were Adrian Brody in the Brutalist, Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown, Ray Fiennes for Conclave, Coleman Domingo for Sing Sing, Sebastian Stan for the Apprentice.
Jules:Okay. So let's see. This seemed like Adrian Brody's to lose because he was winning all the televised precursors. We had talked earlier on how, even if a contender like Ray Fiennes for Conclave or even Coleman Domingo seemed like attractive choices that might end up doing well throughout the award circuit, that Adrian Brody greatly benefited, we think, from not just the movie he's in but more importantly the performance he gives, which I think is just flat out incredible personally, but that he, although he's an Oscar winner for the Pianist, he actually never won for the Pianist any of these televised precursors. He never won a Critics'.
Jules:Choice Award. He never won a Golden Globe. He never won a BAFTA Award. He never won a SAG Award, so in a way way these institutions recognizing him is the first time he's being recognized in them right, as opposed to the academy awards and we debated.
Joseph:We debated whether, as an oscar voter, you're going to see him win all those things and have that push you to put his name as the winner for the oscar, or whether you're going to remember that well, he already he's winning those things. Because he doesn't have those things. He already has an Oscar for the pianist, so do I really want to go and repeat his name?
Jules:Right, right. But as award season has continued to develop, you know, it's just become clear that Adrian Bodie's performance, in my opinion, is just so incredible that it's easily, in my opinion, the best of the group, the strongest of the group. I think it's the strongest performance by a male actor this year, by a lead male actor this year. Personally, I think that has really also helped in creating this narrative that he is the, you know, deserving winner almost in this category, and that's really helped propel the momentum in my opinion. However, you know, things came to a big, abrupt stop. Right.
Jules:He lost the SAG Award to Timothee Chalamet for playing Bob Dylan in A Complete. Unknown.
Jules:Yeah, that was a really big deal. However, as we were said in the last episode, we should have seen it coming, because it was very unlikely that Adrian Brody and Demi Moore would win a SAG award, considering that they were the film's only nomination. Complete Unknown was clearly well-liked by the SAG committee Really well-liked and by the SAG union. It has several nominations. It ended up winning one, and so that started to put some doubt in the air as to can Adrian Brody win his second Oscar when you have someone like Timothee Chalamet there in a popular movie which, again a complete unknown has eight nominations, can Timothee Chalamet sort of wrestle away this Adrian Brody win?
Jules:I think there are a couple of things to consider, as we mentioned in a previous episode. Number one is that Timothee Chalamet is very young. Previous episode. Number one is that Timothee Chalamet is very young and you know the actor's branch is notorious or rather the Academy as at large is kind of biased towards or against young male actors winning the lead actor Oscar and in an interesting turn of you know fate, or call it serendipity, call it whatever you want, the youngest actor to ever win the Academy Award is Adrian Brody for the Pianist.
Joseph:Playing a real person.
Jules:Playing a real life figure. He was 29 years old and Timothee Chalamet is 29 years old and if Timothee Chalamet were to win this award, he would tie Adrian Brody as the youngest actor to ever win this award. He would tie Adrian Brody as the youngest actor to ever win this award.
Joseph:That's crazy. He can't make this shit up, man. He can't make it up, that's absolutely crazy.
Jules:It's so, you know. I don't even have the words for that.
Joseph:Numerology.
Jules:So that's crazy, but it's the truth, and there's a reason why Adrian Brody has held onto that title for such a long time. Uh-huh. Because they don't like to do that typically. That's as opposed to the best actress race, which often sees young women win that award Benefit at the expense of older women.
Jules:Of older women. So there's a weird discrepancy happening in the best actor and best actress categories in terms of age. There's some sort of reverse ageism happening in the best actor category. So that's the first thing that's going against Timothee Chalamet for winning for complete and own as Bob Dylan. The thing going for Timothee Chalamet is what we talk about often, in that when voters are giving their acting awards, especially their lead acting awards, they're often using them as endorsements, their lead acting awards. They're often using them as endorsements. And so a win for Timothee Chalamet is really not just a win for Timothee Chalamet. More importantly, it's a win for Bob Dylan, so that in the history books it reads that you know, a Bob Dylan biopic won the lead acting, the lead actor, Oscar.
Jules:That's sort of what they're most attracted to in my opinion, more than the performance, even though Tim though Timothy is very good in that movie, so that's the thing that's going for him. A win for him is really a win for Bob Dylan.
Joseph:Right, bob Dylan. I kind of think for a second. You know going off that you know well, I mean again playing Bob Dylan in the rare Bob Dylan authorized project. Right. But also, you know well, someone's going to say Johnny Cash lost, right. Joaquin Phoenix lost for playing Johnny Cash. He lost to Truman Capote right, he lost to Phil for playing Truman right, so that is a factor.
Jules:Exactly exactly, and I'm also going to say that this is going to come around when we start talking about best actress in a minute, in that it's very odd to go a year, um or as at least with regards to recent academy trends, to have in the quartet of acting oscars to not have at least one actor be playing a real life figure yeah it's very odd. The last time it happened was rather recently, which was 2022.
Joseph:Right, but that's important. You have to sort of set that up.
Jules:Exactly so, where Brendan Fraser won for the Will and we had three actors from Everything, everywhere, all Out, once winning. However, there were only two options in that year that could have, you know, been an actor playing a real life figure winning the award. There were only two options which again is not often where the Academy only has so few options with regard to actors playing real life figures.
Joseph:You only had a 10% shot of a real life person, had only a 10% shot of winning.
Jules:That year you only had Anna de Armas for playing Marilyn Monroe in Blonde and Austin Butler for playing Elvis Presley in Elvis. I also think there's some interesting connective tissue between Austin Butler not winning for Elvis, considering that he's such a young man, and Timothee Chalamet possibly not winning for a complete unknown because he's also a young man. There's this belief, this understanding that there's time.
Jules:They know they'll be back you know they don't have to win right now. Why, again, they have that sort of pause for best actor and they don't have it as much for best actors? I'm not sure why, but it's there.
Joseph:If Chalamet does end up managing that win, though you have to think that part of the angle that he has is that well, at least it's his second nomination and his second nomination the same category, not like austin, exactly right but back to our point about a real life figure.
Jules:You know, last time it happened was 2022, the year before. The last time that happened before 2022 was do you remember? I believe it was 2016, 2016. So you know recent trends point to at the very. You know they like to when they can, and it's possible to include a real life figure amongst the quartet of acting winners. You saw it this year happen at the SAG. You know where Timothee Chalamet prevailed and that was the real life figure in the quartet yeah we think that's going to happen this year again.
Jules:We just don't think it's going to happen for best actor. We think it's going to happen in another category I mean it'll be close.
Jules:It's going to be close, right, right, right but I do think that and we'll get to that in a minute but I I do think that Timothy is in a big disadvantage with his age and that there's already kind of been this momentum for Adrian Brody and his performance and this film, his performance in this film. And I also want to say that something that's going against Adrian Brody in a way and this is actually a really interesting point to bring up, I think is that Adrian Brody, if he were to win the Oscar for the Brutalist, I believe he would be the first actor to win two Oscars, especially in the same category, but he'd be the first actor to win two Oscars without ever once winning a SAG award. Yeah, and thatG award yeah.
Jules:And that's that's weird. Yeah, that doesn't happen. That's never happened. Yeah. Now let's give some some leeway. Okay, the SAGs haven't been around for a huge long time. They've been around since 1995, I believe Right. And so you know, possibly if we had you know, if we had you know, if they had an extended history, we would see that you know that would happen more often. As it stands right now, it's never happened. Right. So if Adrian Brody wins two Oscars, he will be the first actor to have two Oscars and zero. Sag. Awards.
Joseph:Yeah.
Jules:And I think that points to a larger problem with Adrian Brody Brody. One of the bigger cons for him is that, you know, while he is an Academy Award winning actor for the Pianist and he gives, again, I think, the best leading male performance of the year he's not an actor and he's a very good actor, but his filmography doesn't have, let's say, this long list of titles that you remember him being in and work that just stands out to you in such an emphatic way he was in this and this and this and this and this.
Jules:When you mention Adrian Brody and you mention his incredible work in the Pianist and his incredible work in the Brutalist, I think that's the performance of his career. You know, um, there's like a little bit of a gap between both those projects where I don't think he's been in enough um projects that not necessarily that that they lack quality, but they haven't had the sort of moment. Yeah. Um that those two films have had. Yeah.
Jules:And so I think that's one reason why he's an actor who could possibly have two Academy Awards without ever having a SAG award.
Joseph:Or it might be a reason for why he maybe fails to get that second Oscar right. I mean, I think of someone like Hilary Swank who was able to get two leading actress Oscars and again, annette Bening has zero. But a big part of that, in my opinion, is that, you know, one is a Best Picture movie for which she won a SAG for right, and the other one is a real-life character. I forget whether she won a SAG for Boys Don't Cry, but the point being that it is so difficult to be an actor who walks into two Oscars without some sort of sign that the actors' union which, again to their credit, it's getting so big that there's maybe less crossover now between the academy and the sag after awards whatever, um, but it's it's so rare for that to happen. You look at someone like sean penn right in 2003 he lost that award to johnny depp for pirates right right.
Joseph:but when he wins for milk he gets that sag win right right. So it's just tough for me to think that Adrian Brody is going to go two for two without ever stepping foot on a SAG stage, and that I also think this might be a factor is that, you know, a complete unknown won best actor and it was a very popular film, and the Brutalist was just a tremendously unpopular film there.
Joseph:It didn't get any of his co-stars nominated and it didn't manage a victory for him. So if there is significant crossover between the SAG-AFTRA organization and the actors branch of the Academy, you know how many of them feel that. You know, I'm just not that excited by the Brutalist, even if I do like Adrian Brody, even if I do like his performance. It's just not a film I'm incredibly excited about, whereas when I see a complete unknown I'm excited about Marco Barbaro's turn, I'm excited about Edward Norton's turn, I'm excited about Timothee Chalamet's turn. So I wonder if that's going to be a factor too? Is that that movie maybe just isn't communicating really well with the American actors? We talk about how Brady Corbett was nominated for that Independent Spirit Award.
Joseph:Adrian Brody was not nominated for the independent spirit award very strange so there's a lot of red flags for me in terms of whether adrian brody can sort of conquer that mountain and be the first individual to win two oscars, let alone two lead actor oscars, without ever stepping foot on a sag stage for a victory.
Jules:It's certainly something that makes you pause and and think and again. None of this is in regard to Adrian Brody's talent as an actor. He's an incredible actor and he's given two incredible performances performances in those two films. Yeah.
Jules:But I just think you know, if you had to, you know um label films off the top of your head that Adrian Brody has been in.
Jules:You're not going to come up with that many sort of momentous roles, moments in film Right, even though he's a very decorated actor too.
Jules:He's won, he's been nominated for Emmys as well, and so I think that's a con that's going against Adrian Brody. But again, the performance is just so raw and powerful really that I don't think I think it far eclipses the nominees in this category and I just don't think that if I were to come up with a contender to threaten that sort of you know the compelling sort of stature of this performance, that I would think that that would be Timothee Chalamet for Complete Unknown. You know, I'm just not sure that Timothee has enough. You know, I guess the performance has enough power, I think, to eclipse the power that's in the Adrian Brody performance for the Brutalist and again I think it's a big deal his age. I think that matters, yeah, and I'm giving a lot of credit to the possibility that, even if this Adrian Brody double Oscars, never being a SAG winner would maybe be different if again the SAG had a bigger history. It just doesn't at this moment.
Joseph:I mean, I think SAG voters knew I think part of them knew at least that you know Adrian Brody is an Oscar winner and certainly he's, you know, in the hunt for this second Oscar or the Oscar this year, and I think they made a conscious choice to not give it to him and instead to give it to Timothee Chalamet. I will say this Timothee Chalamet has more SAG nominations than Academy Award nominations. Chalamet has more SAG nominations than Academy Award nominations, right, but as you said, with Adrian Brody, who was the youngest winner and again he largely exploited the situation, right between what was a hair-length race between Jack Nicholson and About Schmidt and.
Joseph:Daniel Day-Lewis. You know, if those two guys weren't completely eating at each other's votes, does Adrian Brody come out of nowhere and win that award? Right you know, um and there's rumors that again that jack nicholson was helping you know sort of campaign for adrian brody and sort of you know what pointed out what a, what a fantastic performance he thought it was and you know, maybe that helped him win that award and he gets up on that stage and he has what is still today a very iconic moment at the Oscars.
Joseph:I don't know if you frown upon it or if it's very memorable to you. Nonetheless, it's etched in history. Do you want to have that again? Maybe you really want to have that again, maybe you don't want to have that again.
Jules:I also think that it's worth noting that, as we mentioned in an earlier episode, I wonder if some voters are going to feel a little bit or they're going to have some hesitation with the fact that Adrian Brody is playing a Holocaust survivor in both of those films, both of his winning performances, the Pianist and the Brutalist Could that be something that makes them pause and think?
Jules:maybe not just yet a second Oscar? I don't know, but I think I don't know if I, if his biggest competition is Timothee Chalamet, who again is very good in A Complete Unknown as well. I just don't know that. I think that's enough to be Adrian Brody in this performance.
Joseph:There was, for a brief moment, a bit of controversy as to whether Adrian Brody and Felicity Jones got some AI assistance in terms of their accents, whatever.
Jules:I wonder if that could come into play.
Joseph:I don't know, I'm not sure I have no idea, but I certainly know that people are going to investigate and find out that Timothee Chalamet did his own singing Right, and I think they're going to be largely appreciative of putting himself out there. I honestly think that if the vote was occurring after his sack speech, that he would lose, because I don't think the speech was was very good. I don't think there was a speech to win over votes, um, but it didn't occur. You know the voting was done by then. So there was something in the ether and we talked about it sort of how.
Joseph:You know this was a do or die for james mangled. If james mangled doesn't get an iron for best director this year, I don't think he'll ever will. And he did get nominated right and this was a film that was really well rewarded at the Academy Awards. You know there's maybe one or two things that it should have gotten. Maybe it should have gotten the nomination for film editing. You know it would have been nice to see it steal a nomination in production design, but it's overall a really well-liked film and really well-liked film, and so I wonder if James Mangold, you know he's been able to get Angelo.
Joseph:Jolie the supporting actress Oscar Reese Witherspoon the lead, oscar, you know. I do wonder if there isn't some, you know, James Mangold sort of magic here. When James Mangold gets an actor and they get nominated and they're playing someone real, you know, a lot of really good chemistry happens and I do wonder if that, if that'll be a factor.
Jules:You know it's, I'll say this. You know this best actor category. I feel pretty good about Adrian Brody winning this. I think he deserves to win, but you know it's, I can't say. I'm as confident as I'd like to be. Right.
Jules:And so certainly, my pick is Adrian Brody for the Boudalas, and my spoiler is obviously Timothy Chalamet for a complete unknown. But you know, if it happens and Adrian Brody loses and Timothy Chalamet wins, will it be surprising? Yes, but but look to these reasons as being a reason why he doesn't win. Yeah, um, this is a close one. This is going to be another close one, and I wonder if it's going to be closer than people think.
Joseph:I would actually go with the reverse if it was me. I would say that right now the momentum is with the Timothee Chalamet win. I would rather Timothee Chalamet replace Adrian Brody as the youngest actor to win lead actor on his second nomination than to have Adrian Brody win twice without that sag.
Jules:Wow, that's so surprising. I mean, it could certainly happen, folks. It can certainly happen. And you know, I think maybe that's going to be a moment where people are not expecting to be surprised and end up being surprised. You know, it's possible, but I see your reasoning and I understand it All right, so we're the opposite then.
Joseph:I mean, listen, I think it's going to be so tight. As I think about it now, I think you know well, doesn't it's? It's certainly the kind of performance and the kind of movie that would garner, you know, that second nomination. But then why didn't? You win you mean, I'm sorry that second win, so why? Why didn't he win the sag? That's all I go back to because, because at the sag nobody saw.
Jules:At the SAG. I really believe you had two unpopular films win the lead actor and the lead actress SAG award. You had the Substance, which could have gone on for Margaret Qualley, and it didn't. You had the Brutalist, which could have gone on for Guy Pearce and Felicity Jones, and it didn't. And so the thing that's winning out here isn't Timothee Chalamet per se, but it's the Demi Moore Hollywood narrative that is, you know, too irresistible to Zag voters.
Jules:Whether you like the movie or not, you know that they were more in favor of the Demi Moore narrative, continuing that Hollywood sort of Cinderella narrative, than they were in giving Adrian Brody Again. We don't really love the film that much. He doesn't have to win. Let's give it to Timothee Chalamet. He's playing Bob Dylan, we really like that movie, and so I think you're looking at it the wrong way. I don't think it's. Why did he lose to Timothee Chalamet? It's more like the SAG voters had to choose which of the lead uh actors actress or actor are they going to give to a film that was clearly not as popular amongst the entire group?
Joseph:right. But then I always go back and I debate whether is. Is the brutalist that much more popular than a complete unknown? Eight to ten nominations it was just missing cinematography and production design, again two awards that it got nominated for at the at its guild, complete unknown. So is the brutalist really that much more of a popular film than the bob dylan film?
Jules:oh well, I'm talking popularity among the sag voters, right, but I'm saying at the academy do you think the?
Jules:brutalist is a more popular film than a complete unknown I think by virtue of the fact that the brutalist stands to win more oscars. I think by virtue of the fact that the Brutalist stands to win more Oscars than A Complete Unknown, I think goes to the point that it's a more you know, at least you know a significant group of voters consider it, more, you know, oscar worthy. You know the fact that the Brutalist stands a good chance to win scores, stands a good chance to win screenplay. I mean I apologize cinematography. Maybe there's a world where it surprises and wins productions. Who knows Gets that editing nomination. It really should not have gotten that editing nomination.
Jules:To be honest, they missed Ace Eddie.
Jules:Films of that sort of length don't do well with editing noms at the Oscars, and so all those things point to that film being at least perceived like a bigger awards magnet, I think than a complete unknown, which I think a complete unknown overperformed people's expectations when it got eight nominations, we were seeing the kind of you know um uh pool that movie was having, that people were liking and people were watching it, people were enjoying it. You know um, you know, a film filled with Bob Dylan music, joan Baez music, you know um, those beautiful uh performances, musical performances. You know you're going to get an older base of the Academy that's going to like that, possibly a younger base that's also going to like it. So it has broad appeal, but I'm not sure that you can argue, considering what the Brutalist can win, how many Oscars it can win and also the nominations that it was able to snag, that it's not perceived as the bigger Oscar movie.
Joseph:Yeah, I could see that. But listen, I really think this race is a hair Right. It's really a hair All right.
Jules:So you're gonna stay with the opposite, then I'm gonna stay with the opposite for the next five minutes and then ask me five minutes from now and I'll switch. Okay, so brutalist winner adrian brody.
Joseph:Spoiler um timothy chalamet, complete unknown and you're the opposite, I'm going the opposite, I'm going. Timothy chalamet, the front runner.
Jules:Adrian brody, the spoiler perfect okay, and now let's move on to a category that I think a lot of people are anticipating very much. So you know, it's kind of a nerve-wracking category for I think most of us sort of Oscar addicts and that's Best Actress.
Joseph:Right and again had a fantastic actress year. All the contenders, very good set of nominees, but the final five were Mikeyy madison for onora, cynthia rivo for wicked, carla sofia gascon for amelia perez, making history, demi moore for the substance and fernando torres for I'm still here and so this race has really kind of dwindled to a three-person race.
Jules:Yep, you have Demi Moore, who has become the favorite, or is the favorite, after winning the Golden Globe Critics' Choice and the SAG. You and I called that sort of you know momentum before it happened. Right, we're pretty happy about that. Yeah, we don't know if anyone was listening to us when we said it, but we're pretty happy about that. Yeah, we don't know if anyone was listening to us when we said it, but we were pretty happy about that.
Jules:Yeah, and so we called you know her kind of having this amazing run right after her winning the Golden Globe. And then Mikey Madison put things you know a little bit made things confusing when she won the BAFTA for Best.
Joseph:Actress. She put a dent in things.
Jules:Exactly, which was really alarming, and we went over that last episode. We'll touch upon it here. And then you have Fernanda Torres, who is a, you know, very surprised contender, because she won the drama Golden Globe which we called Exactly which we called and she didn't get nominated for anything else but she landed a best actress nomination. Some people were not expecting that. You and I were absolutely expecting that and her film made it into Best Picture.
Joseph:Yeah, she did not just get that Best Actress nomination, but her foreign language film made it into the top 10 for Best Picture.
Jules:And so it's really a race between those three actresses.
Joseph:We kind of called it as a race between those two globe winners as soon as the Golden Globes happened. Yes, right, we kind of said that with those two victories, you're putting those two on a path to go head to head, and they actually have not gone head to head yet which is going to be part of the interesting thing.
Jules:Exactly, and so you know, we you know. Just to recap very quickly you know, when Mikey Madison won the BAFTA, that certainly is something that you and I took as a sign that Demi Moore is not a stronger contender to win this award, as people think, because there was no reason for her to lose that award she couldn't win over the british, the british block, she couldn't do it exactly.
Jules:British co-production exactly, and so that is already spelling trouble. Will she be able to win enough of a contingent of the foreign base um to uh win this award?
Jules:yeah so we know certainly that she has most of hollywood right rooting for her um, and again it's been such a beautiful thing to see. You know, I'm gonna be so happy for her if she does win um, I think it's well-deserved flowers, I'm gonna be so ecstatic for her. So it looks like she has the hollywood the ho sewn up. And yet, you know, as we keep reading about these anonymous Oscar ballots and again you know you have to take that with a grain of salt, but still it's, it's something to ponder you keep hearing about people who are seeing the movie and are not liking the movie, are disgusted by it, are repulsed by it, or they just don't like it. And it makes sense. This is not your typical kind of you know, your prototypical oscar-winning film, and certainly not something that wins awards for best acting, for best, for best performance yeah um.
Jules:Add to that that this is a very kind of particular performance. There's not a lot of dialogue in the movie. There isn't this sort of oscar caliber scene that you know, this super scene, chewy, Oscar-y scene that they're going to play and it's just going to be. It's going to read like their prototypical Oscar-y clips, Right? You know a lot of people mentioned that scene. In front of the mirror, you know, when she's getting ready for the date, that's not the kind of scene they like to play, you know, for before nominees are announced, but before the winner's announced. It like to play, you know, for before nominees are announced, but before the winner's announced. Just not your prototypical kind of Oscar package period.
Jules:And so people are going to watch that movie and some people are not going to like it. And so you're really betting on number one, the strength of this Hollywood contingent that is going to want to see Demi Moore up, up, up there on that stage giving a beautiful speech, as she's been giving time and time again, and that you know people who dislike the movie will still want to vote for Demi Moore because you know her long career, Right, and because they want this moment for her. It's into question that happening? Besides the mikey madison win, besides that, this is now your prototypical kind of oscar-winning uh film for for acting, for performances. Um is, will a voter, will enough voters who see the movie and don't like it still say well, you know what? I'll vote for a movie that I don't like. Yeah.
Jules:You know that matters when they could easily put their vote towards a performance in a movie that they do like. They could see Onora. They could like Onora. They could vote for Mikey Madison.
Jules:Yeah, they can see Fernanda Torres. They can like her film. I'm Still here and vote for Fernanda Torres. There are other options. For Netta Torres, there are other options. How likely is it that a big enough group of voters will see the substance, dislike it and still say I'm going to vote for Demi Moore? I don't doubt that there is a group of people who are going to do that, but are enough people going?
Joseph:to do it. Is it significant enough?
Jules:That's the big issue. Another thing to consider is, as we mentioned, with Timothee Chalamet in the last segment. You know the Oscar voters are going to want to when they can award a film that's about a real life figure. Yeah.
Jules:So there is the option of Timothee Chalamet. In A Complete Unknown, he just won the SAG. You know when they can do that. The Oscar voters will try to do that. If you look at the history, if you look at the recent Oscar trends, you know it's pretty damning evidence when you see just how often at least one actor playing a real life figure wins an Academy Award for a performance. We went through it and let's see in 2022,. As we mentioned earlier, all the acting winners were fictional characters. Again, they had very few options.
Joseph:Only 10%, only two out of the 20.
Jules:Before 2022, it was 2016. Yeah. Where they had all four acting winners, none of which were actors playing real life figures and before 2016,. It was 1997. Yeah. When it was Robin Williams, helen Hunt, jack Nicholson and Kim Basinger, kim Basinger, 1997.
Joseph:That's all fictional.
Jules:They were all fictional and again, that's three years that we pointed out yeah, um 2022, 2016 and 1997 yeah so it is a very uh, pervasive, prevalent fact that, as of late, the most recent trends, when they can they will try to award an actor playing a real life figure and yes, that points to possibly being Timothee Chalamet. But even then, when you consider it, you're kind of in a quagmire with both lead acting categories because the favorites are not real life figures, right, and if it prevails that Zoe Zaldana and Kieran Culkin are favorites and they're not going to be trumped by real life figures actors playing real life figures then it falls on the lead acting categories, unless we're going to have a year of all fictional characters, which seems unlikely, given that SAG even found a way to award a real life figure in.
Jules:Timothee Chalamet's Bob Dylan.
Joseph:Not just that, but I think the Academy went out of their way to nominate a lot of real life characters this year. They didn't have to nominate either actor from the apprentice. They didn't have to nominate the character of joan bias. They didn't have to nominate the actress from I'm still. Here was a really competitive year for best actress. They could have, you know, overlooked her, like they did another, a bunch of other fantastic performances, but in almost every category they decided, decided. I want someone real, I want someone real, I want someone real.
Jules:And similarly for the BAFTA, which has a lot of overlap with the Academy since 2000, there's only been two years where all the BAFTA winners were fictional. Yeah. And that's 2008 and 2003, because Charlize Theron for Aileen warner's was pushed to the next year, right exactly um, and that's also pretty damning yeah you know so the chances of there being all fictional, an all fictional quartet of actors, I mean it's possible yeah, I just find it this year to be unlikely yeah, I mean, the sag didn't even sort of prophesize that, like they did in 2022.
Jules:Right. So where is it going to fall? Is it going to be Timothee Chalamet or is it going to be someone?
Joseph:in lead actors, or I mean some could argue it could be both. That's a possibility, right exactly.
Jules:It could be more than one, certainly in Fernanda Torres's favor. She's playing a real life figure. Her performance and that film is strong enough that it mustered a Best Picture nomination. It had no business getting known as the Best Picture, and it did it really had no little breadcrumbs to get that nomination Exactly.
Jules:In a way, it kind of reminds me a little bit of ironically enough, since we're talking about Demi Moore and this sort of, you know, momentous campaign and awards trajectory she's had. It kind of reminds me of Sandra Bullock in a way, because Sandra Bullock was her performance was so popular, right, that it managed a Best Picture nomination, right. It's not too unlike what's happening here with Fernanda Torres. Oh, that's interesting. Yeah, fernanda Torres was people. The the Fernando Torres win at the Golden Globes got voters to see the movie.
Joseph:Put eyeballs on the film.
Jules:And that was enough to get the film nominated for best picture.
Joseph:Yeah, not just actress, but best picture.
Jules:And that's a huge deal that I think not enough people are paying attention. Yeah. Mainly because they're following the statistic that no lead actor has won an Oscar without getting nominated for the SAG. Yeah. Okay, so that's true. So that would be the first time. Okay, but again, the SAG doesn't have a super extensive history. Yeah, and things are becoming, in this sort of awards Oscar sphere, weirder and weirder and weirder.
Joseph:I mean Adrian Rodi would be the first actor to win best actor without a SAG ever. So I mean Adrian Rodi would be the first actor to win best actor without a SAG ever. So I mean history is going to have to snap somewhere, exactly.
Jules:And Coda won best picture without having any of the other.
Joseph:Right, exactly, no director, no editing.
Jules:Exactly so. The stats are meant to be broken, right, even we know that, even though we rely a lot on them. Yeah, so that's not enough of a reason to think that Fernanda Torres can't happen. I think she's a huge threat in this category. She's playing a real life figure, no-transcript. This real life story of this incredible woman who persevered against this. You know tragic loss and this tragic occurrence. There's so much you know DNA between what was happening then during the dictatorship in Brazil and what's going on in the alt-right movement Everywhere globally.
Jules:Exactly exactly.
Speaker 3:And so there's such political charge, the alt-right movement Everywhere globally, Exactly exactly.
Jules:And so there's such political charge and relevance to this movie that I think voters are going to be more than glad to sort of spotlight and give their vote and their weight. To Add to that that, again, her biggest competition is a movie that stands to be disliked by a large group of people who watch it right.
Joseph:So even some highbrow people are not going to enjoy the film. Case in point demi moore. You know she didn't win one, she didn't place at the national side of film critics, I believe no she did.
Jules:She was able to muster some support at the la film critics but you know she wasn't necessarily the runaway critical favorite also, she didn't win and you would think that would be more likely that she didn't win the actress award at Cannes, right, you know? And that was an award that you know could have happened to the Substance. The. Substance still won something but didn't win actress Right, and I think part of that has to do with the kind of performance it is the nature of it.
Jules:The kind of, the nature of the performance, the nature of the movie you know, and that it stands to be a movie that you know at least a good number of people, of voters, are going to see and they're going to be put off by Right Again. Is it enough to wager that enough of those voters decided? You know, I don't like the movie, or maybe I hate the movie, but I'm still going to vote for Demi Moore. I don't know.
Joseph:I'm just not sure about it. Well, her speeches have done a really good job of giving her an edge, you know, I think that she gets up there and she shares wisdom and sincerity and grace and and grace, and you're happy to see her up there. As you said, even if you're, as you said, divisive on the movie, she's someone that you look forward to the speech she's going to give.
Joseph:Now I will say that the bernanda torres is going to give one hell of a speech too, if she wins she gave a hell of a speech of the golden globes, um, and she has a lot of again, a lot of sincerity, a lot of humility when she speaks, um. But you know, I think one thing that may be going for the substance, that maybe gives it the edge, that angle is, again, it's sort of reflexive of the industry and so maybe actors are really going to empathize with that. Uh, maybe, maybe specifically female actors, that's a possibility. But I think we have to talk about, you know, the genre hurdle right, because that's that's massive, that's massive right, so I mean last performance to win for a genre piece.
Joseph:I I mean, are we saying that that's Natalie Portman in Black Swan? Yeah. The last actress to win Best Actress and she swept.
Jules:She won the BAFTA she didn't lose that BAFTA. And only that. I believe that year Black Swan was the most nominated film at the BAFTAs. Oh wow, that's very interesting. I remember that, yeah.
Joseph:Right and it only got five Oscar nominations right. It only got five Oscar nominations. Managed only one win for Natalie who swept it was Natalie's second nod, this is Demi Moore's first, and so these are the kinds of things that are important if you're going to overcome that hurdle is that it's not Natalie's first nomination, it's her second nomination and her first lead is that she did sweep. And also, I would argue, are we saying that the Substance is going to be nominated for, I think, five Oscars?
Joseph:It is nominated for five and win two, where Black Swan was nominated for five and only won one. Yeah, are we really saying that the Substance has enough strength to win two awards?
Jules:Yeah, the Substance broke so much ground, so much terrain by even being nominated for Best Picture. Considering the kind of movie it is, it feels almost, you know, unrealistic to think that it's going to not just manage that kind of feat but also be the kind of body horror you know, horror genre film that also wins more than one Academy Award.
Joseph:Yeah, to go the distance Exactly. I mean, yeah, I was going to say I just think that you know the genre bias, I think, is going to be significant and we saw it play out at BAFTA. Now maybe it'll be different at the Oscars. It's a different voting body. You know there's other influences out there, but we don't know, we don't.
Jules:Right, and I also want to point out something really important. Let's look at you and I don't really take the critics choice with you know, super, a big amount of weight yeah but we do the golden globe, especially the sag and the bafta yeah let's look at, from 2000 to current day, um how often either of those awards bodies had the correct actress winner right and winners Right If we look at the SAG since 2000, the SAG has gotten seven actresses wrong.
Jules:Those were Renee Zellweger when she won for Chicago in 2002, julie Christie for Away From Her, meryl Streep for Doubt, viola Davis for the Help, glenn Close for the Wife, viola Davis from Mara, annie's Black Bottom and, just last year, lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon. So since 2000, they got seven actresses wrong. It's not bad for 24 years, not bad BAFTA. The BAFTA since 2000 has gotten again seven wrong Judy Dench for Iris, scott Johansson for Lost in Translation, emil de Staunton for Vera Drake, carrie Mulligan for An Education, emmanuel Riva for Amour, joanna Scanlon for Afterlife and Cate Blanchett for Tar. Now let's look at the Golden Globe, which we found most fascinating?
Jules:yeah, since 2000, because again, the golden globe benefits from the fact that they have a drama and a musical comedy.
Joseph:There's a little bit of a lean there, a little bit of a curve.
Jules:So, with that in mind, that you know they kind of have, you know, more options to get them right, since 2000 they have only missed actress three times. Right, the actress winner at the academy award was in the golden globe, was amongst the drama comedy actress. Uh choices right, um, except for three years, and that is one of them, is the pandemic year 2020. Right when, uh, andrew day.
Joseph:Andrew day won and uh, rosamund, rosamund, pike won yeah, and rosamund pike didn't get nominated, but andrew day exactly I think she was pretty competitive, right too and then the following year 2021 oh man, that was just chaos. Yeah, when nicole kidman won for being the ricardos right.
Jules:Michael zegler won for west side story. She didn't get nominated, only nicole kim and nicole, yeah, and then the only. It's just chaos. Yeah, when Nicole Kidman won for being the Ricardos Right and Rachel Zegler won for West Side Story Right, she didn't get nominated.
Joseph:Only Nicole Kidman did yeah.
Jules:And then the only other year since 2000 was 2001. When Sissy Spacek won for In the Bedroom.
Joseph:Oh, yeah, and. Nicole Kidman won for Moulin Rouge Right and Halle.
Jules:Berry, you know.
Joseph:And Oscar and she won the second.
Jules:So the point is, of those three awards bodies, the Golden Globe actually has stood better with regard to picking the right best actress winner or having the best actress winner be included among amongst their best actress choices. Right, and so you know, we're on a little bit of a trend the last few years where the actress in the comedy or musical category has ended up winning. We just had Emma Stone for Poor Things.
Jules:And the year before that we had Michelle Yeoh for Everything Every While At Once, you know, but typically actually, if you look at their history, you know, over the last since 2000,. Minus those three years, that they have gotten incorrect. You know 14 of their winners that went on to win the Academy Award for Best Actress 14 came from the drama actress category and seven came from the comedy or musical category. Yeah, and that's that's. That's almost more than half. Right or half.
Jules:Right, and so 14 come from drama, seven came from comedy or musical. This year we've got Fernanda Torres in drama and Demi Moore in comedy or musical. Yeah. So I think those stats also bode pretty well for Fernanda Torres. Right.
Jules:You know, technically, if you consider these stats, you know, being part of the Golden Globe pair of winners is maybe slightly better than being a SAG winner and a BAFTA winner and, like you mentioned earlier, this hasn't been put to the test yet so that people can start predicting that it's definitely going to be Demi Moore, or it's definitely going to be Mikey Madison, because Fernanda Torres was not nominated for the BAFTA, and she was not nominated for the SAG.
Jules:So we don't know what would have happened in those races had she been. And then we're going to see what happens on Sunday when Fernanda Torres faces these two very formidable competitors For the first time. For the first time, but right now as it stands, fernanda Torres' Golden Globe win to me looks a little bit more attractive than a Demi Moore SAG win in a film that again stands to, you know, repel a certain amount of people and votes and Mikey Madison with her BAFTA win.
Joseph:Yeah, I mean, and like we said, I mean that Golden Globe win for Fernanda was enough to get a Best Picture nomination right when there was already a foreign film among the 10. You know, I think I've also brought up that comparison of you know the horror genre, for you know, natalie Portman against Demi Moore, the second nomination for Natalie Portman. I think I also want to bring up this idea because you've brought up, and a lot of people have brought up, the idea of a hollywood vote. But are we really saying that the academy that has yet to give it to glenn close right when glenn close was up for the wife, right?
Joseph:and she was gonna have that moment on the stage. Finally and she loses out to olivia coleman in the favorite are we really saying that the academy is ready and willing and able to put demi more up there before glenn close? Right, you know, I think that's something that's going to occur to people's mind in the sense that perhaps the nomination for demi more is enough. That is the win. Right, you know, it's not necessarily a nomination she's been trying for, you know, the role happened, the, the project happened and they're more than happy to celebrate her. And again, she has had projects that were nominated the academy awards and that certainly helped her get this particular individual nomination.
Joseph:She was in ghost, she was in a few good men, but are they really going to go, you know, across that bridge all the way and actually give it to her? We talk about brendan frazier being able to muster that victory, right, but I just I'm not sure that I see the competitors against demi more at this at the same level as the competitors against brendan frazier, and to that point, I think the other really good comparison here is as far as fernanda torres goes, I think that there is sentiment within the academy that knows that her mother was up for this award in 1998 and failed to win it. Right, and that um the movie, uh, central station was up for foreign film and failed to win it.
Joseph:And so I do think that there is a little bit of, as you said, sort of this poetry going on as to whether she can sort of win this award, not just for her but for her country and for her mother right, as well as for Walter Saez. You know and I think that that may be on top of all the other things you're saying the little bit of an edge that she needs to come up with the win.
Jules:Right, I will say that if Fernanda Torres wasn't in the picture, yeah. And it was just Demi Moore with, you know. Let's say she's replaced with someone like I don't know, kay Winslet, and Lee.
Jules:Then I would see and we're going to talk about Mikey Madison, who's a very formidable contender in her own right We'll get to that in a minute, but it would you know I could certainly see a scenario like we keep coming back to this contender 2009, sandra Bullock, where Sandra Bullock was facing Meryl Streep for Julia and Julia, who already had an Oscar, and the young girls.
Jules:And Helen Mirren for the Last Station, who already had an Oscar, and two young breakout stars. Yeah, you know, I could see a scenario where, uh, demi Moore, even with a film that you know stands to be liked by half of the Academy or less than half, um, and disliked by the other half, could still win out because of this really powerful, you know, narrative over you know Mikey Madison, who's very new to the scene for a lot of voters. Uh, carla Sofia Gascon, same thing, um. Uh, cynthia Erivo, um, for Wicked Fantasy is not really their thing to you know give, you know um, the the acting wins to. And uh, kate Winslet for Lee, who already has an Oscar.
Jules:I could see a scenario where okay, you know in in this field, this similar sort of sandra boy kind of thing can happen, where um she ends up winning, even if she has this polarizing film okay, I can see that yeah the problem is that fernanda torres is in the picture, yeah, and there you have a contender who's never won, who's playing a real life figure and we already went over how important that is and has this very political chart, political relevance to her movie, to what it means to the brazilian people. When you put all that into context, it's a tough battle. It's a tough battle between demi more and fernanda torres it is and is the powerful?
Jules:to me, more narrative in the substance going to be enough to overcome all of that? I just don't know it's a lot.
Joseph:It's a lot to overcome. I mean, I think another thing that she has that you we've talked about some detriments to her campaign, but maybe an angle that she can sort of work here is that typically the Academy they do like their you know performances that are sort of drenched in makeup and albeit the substance, I think, to its virtue does it on its own terms.
Joseph:You know it's not the whale, but it is a very, you know, a performance that relies heavily on prosthetics at times, and that's something that they typically like to do. Now. It doesn't always happen. You look at something like 2020, right, when you had Judas and the Black Messiah and no man Land, the Father Minari None of those performances had you, you know, a lot of makeup, but a substantial amount of the time you have a movie that is a makeup nominee or possibly a makeup winner. Come out and win one of the performance oscars. That may be just a little bit of a of an edge.
Jules:Yeah, I think that. I think that that's a good factor maybe helps the substance cross that line.
Joseph:Like I said, I think this is going to be, you know, a war of tiny little bit of space, an incremental war here between these two or three people, right, right and so the other contender that we haven't talked about is mikey madison, who you know personally, for me, is my favorite of the category.
Jules:I would be very happy to see her performance celebrated she won that surprise BAFTA win but I, just because of how new she is to the scene, I'm just not sure that she can sort of muster enough passion. Again, I certainly think it's a performance that's strong enough it's one of my favorite performances of the year. That's strong enough to pull a passionate vote amongst voters. But when we're talking about this Demi Moore, this powerful Hollywood narrative, and this Fernanda Torres, you know, um, what the win would mean. You know uh. So in one case to me more, what the win would mean for her career, you know sort of very, um, admirable long. You know uh career that she's had. And Fernanda Torres, um this, you know uh career that she's had. And for Netta Torres, um this, you know, important film, and what it would mean for the Brazilian people. Um, I'm just not sure that Mikey Madison being in possibly the best picture favorite is enough to sort of kind of eclipse those two other. You know uh narratives going on.
Jules:No, I agree, um, even narratives going on? No, I agree, even though I certainly see people's point, because people are considering Mikey Madison as the biggest alternative.
Joseph:After the BAFTA, yeah, after the.
Jules:BAFTA win to Demi Moore. I certainly see it, especially as Anora, like we've mentioned, is a favorite for Best Picture and many other awards and she's so at the center of that movie and it's such a beautiful performance, such an incredible performance. I agree, but I don't know, I'm just not sure that's enough. When we talk about these acting categories, narrative almost feels like it's everything in a way. You know, and is that Mikey Madison narrative you know being? You know this breakout star in this, you know breakout Sean Baker film. Right.
Jules:Is that enough to eclipse these other two? You know running horses that are running alongside her in their narratives, right?
Joseph:Well, I mean to her advantage. We've talked about the gender bias here and you know the Oscar voters love themselves a young actress for best actress, they do like that. Oscar voters love themselves a young actress for best actress, they do like that. I'm not sure Mikey has had very many opportunities to sort of exploit the stage the way that someone, for example, like Jennifer Lawrence did.
Jules:Who did win on her second nomination?
Joseph:Who did win on her second nomination. That's important.
Jules:Because she was 22 when she won. Mikey Madison is 25 years old. Yeah, she's a little bit older.
Joseph:She's a little bit older, but she hasn't had that moment to sort of get on stage and have sort of members right all in love with her and fawn over her, unfortunately, and so maybe that is a little bit of a detriment, but I do think that, beyond best picture or the best picture frontrunner being, you know, uh, one of her, one of her advantages here, I think the other thing that is important to talk about is, for me personally, that bath to win is significant for her, and I think the other thing that is important to talk about is, for me personally, that bafta win is significant for her, and I think it builds that momentum to a three-person race possibly, you know, a two-person race or we'll see what happens if maybe she's just serving there to, you know, take away votes from someone, but I don't know about you.
Joseph:But don't you feel like youth has to go through sag? So jennifer law loses to Manuel Riva at the BAFTA, but she wins that SAG award for Silver Linings Playbook. So in my opinion, I think if you're a young person and you're hoping to win that award, you have to go through SAG. Austin Butler is a young person who loses SAG and wins BAFTA and fails to win the Oscar, and so that's why I actually give more credence to Timothee Chalamet, who's a little bit older, on his second nomination, but he went through the SAG right, and so I would have found it more formidable had Mikey won the.
Joseph:SAG and Demi won the BAFTA. That might've been really interesting too right. But I almost feel like if you're a young actor, you have to go through the sag yeah, and I believe uh, to your point.
Jules:I think brie larson was like 26 when she won um for for room, when she won the sag. I think one of palatro was like 26, yeah, she won for shakespeare love. So these are, like you were saying, young actors, very young actors um, mikey madison is 25 who go through sack first before they end up winning the oscar yeah um, so I think that's not a point to to overlook yeah, I think that's a really good point, um.
Jules:So this is a really really difficult race. I feel that people think it's a little bit over before it is, um, because demi more has such an attractive narrative. Um, and I will say, like, I'm gonna be so happy for Demi Moore, you know, even if she's not my personal pick in the category, it's just so lovely to see her on stage and have this moment, after what I think has been a career where she's you know, her and her talent and what she's brought to this industry and what she brings to her parts and her performances has been undervalued by this industry, to finally be receiving these flowers. It's really moving to see. It's very poignant. It's also very hopeful, uh, for people to see, you know, her winning um, you know that it's never too late and that you can really have and are deserving of these.
Jules:You know momentous celebrations, um, and to not give up and to keep trying, and so that that's just so attractive and so appealing. So I'm going to be so happy if she wins. But you know, at the same time, you know and it's kind of weird because you know, I would be happy for Demi Moore. You know, I think my personal pick is Mikey Madison, so I would be happy with that too. And Fernanda Torres is lovely in her movie, absolutely beautiful in her film, so I'd be happy for her too. But there's just something about Demi Moore getting up there and, you know, having this moment. That's just so beautiful to see. So I'm going to be really happy for her. I just think that right now, you know, I see too many issues popping up here and I'm just not sure that Demi Moore in the substance. Yeah.
Jules:Because really the issue isn't Demi Moore or how she or you know her sort of contender status, it's the movie she's in. Yeah. You know, I'm just not sure Demi Moore in the substance is something that can overcome these hurdles.
Joseph:Yeah, no mean more in the substance, as something that can overcome these hurdles. Yeah, no, I agree, and I think, to me, I think it's largely going to come down to the lead actress, the title character of anora. I feel like she's a little bit far from winning best actress, but with that bafta win and possibly her film being a best picture winner with three to four wins, um, if she's included, possibly four, maybe even more, but if she's not, possibly four, maybe even more. But if she's not included, to me it's a question of who is she going to take more votes away from?
Joseph:Is she going to take more votes away from Demi Moore, or is she going to take more votes away from?
Jules:Fernanda Torres.
Joseph:And that's almost like saying if you're a voter, what type of voter are you? Are you the type of voter who is unmovable on Fernando Torres and she's your number one on your ranking? There's no ifs, ands or buts about it. Or are you someone who says Demi Moore is my number one and I'm immovable and she's not going to fall below that in my rankings? Right To me? If you're ranking Fernando Torres, I think you're ranking the performance. I think you're ranking the performance and I think you're ranking the story right. And I think if you're ranking Demi Moore, you're ranking Demi Moore right. You're ranking Demi Moore and everything she's been through and her career getting back on stage, less so than ranking her character or the substance that's what I'm thinking right now or her performance or her performance, or her performance, you know, because again.
Joseph:It's just not a very Oscar performance and what they typically award for Oscars, unfortunately. But because of that, I want to say that the more unmovable voter, the voter that is less likely to move, that is more cemented in their decision to give the win to someone, is the Fernando Torres voter. Therefore, mikey steals votes from, possibly, demi Moore.
Jules:So this is a very tough category to predict. Yeah. In a way. It's sort of like maybe I'm being too extreme by saying this, but kind of a heartbreaking category to predict, in a way, because I want Demi Moore to have her moment but, I, just I'm just not seeing it Right. You know, and at the same time you know, if Fernanda Torres doesn't win, and it would mean so much to the Brazilian people, brazil, you know, there's something kind of you know sad about that about that not coming to fruition. Yeah.
Jules:And Mikey Madison, who I think is so integral to the successes of Onora, you know, kind of not being able to take that momentum of the BAFTA win and turn it into a best actress win, which she's, in my opinion, so deserving of it. There's also something sad, in my opinion, about that too, right. So it's kind of a tough category to predict because either way, you know, there's something bittersweet about whoever's going to win that category.
Joseph:If you want to spread the wealth, then maybe you say to yourself I give Brazil their first ever win for international film, I give Honora and Mikey Madison a chance to go on stage for Best Picture and I give Demi Moore the opportunity to go on stage for. Demi Moore, if you wanted to spread the wealth, we'll see what kind of academy shows up. The academy that wants to spread the wealth doesn't always show up, right.
Jules:Exactly, and so this is going to be a nerve wracking category all the way to the end. Yeah. I'm sure they'll leave it to the, to the, to the category right before best picture. Right, probably so guess, waiting for a while, yeah, and so you know. You know, even thinking about it, I'm getting antsy about it, right?
Joseph:So I mean well, finally, who do you have then?
Jules:So right now, based on everything we've said, I have to give the edge to Fernando Torres as my winner, for I'm still here and my spoiler is Demi Moore for the.
Joseph:Substance, I'm in 100% agreement, and again it's going to come down to a hair. But you know, I do think that we'll see. I mean, demi Moore has yet to face off against her, so we'll see what happens.
Jules:Yeah, let's see who we're mourning. Yeah. The day after yeah.
Joseph:Okay, okay, all right.
Jules:So, and now let's move on to Best Director Right. The nominees are Sean Baker for Onora, Brady Corbet for the Brutalist, Jacques Audiard for Emilia Perez, James Mangold for Complete Unknown and Coralie Fargeat for the Substance.
Joseph:And, as we have been talking about all year, we have a list of all newbies which makes this race a little bit interesting, right, because they're not all just new, but also they're not necessarily traditionally all of them. You know the academy's cup of tea, you know, maybe a more conventional film from james mangled he finally gets his nomination, um. But so I mean to sort of point out who the winner is. Let's talk about who it's between, and I think the first thing we should mention is the bafta right, and so, um, bafta nominees that were also Oscar nominees were Onora the Brutalist, emilia Perez and the Substance. So James Mangold did not make it in, and then the BAFTA ended up going to Brady Corbett for the Brutalist right.
Joseph:And then let's talk about the other really good comparison, which is the Director's Guild Award, where, again, if foreshadowed what happened with this list, I think we had all newbies right, first time nominations for everyone. The nominees there were Onora the Brutalist, a Complete Unknown, emilia Perez and Conclave Right. So Conclave didn't make it, but the other four did, and the winner here was Sean Baker for Onora, and so we're kind of split between those two names. But I think that, analyzing the, so conclave didn't make it, but the other four did, and the winner here was sean baker for anora, and so we're kind of split between those two names.
Jules:But I think that you know, analyzing the history, I think well, also to that point, you know, adding a bit onto that, you know, brady corbett won the golden globe. Yeah, he did as well he did, and I believe that he also won the critics choice. I think john m chu oh, john m chu won the critics choice the critics choice said you know what?
Joseph:I don't care about this category I'm just giving it to john m chu, right, um, but anyway, um. So it's sort of solidified between those two names. Um, the dgi, I think, has had a tremendous history, sort of foreshadowing who's going to win this award. They've chosen almost every single winner. They've gotten gotten it correct, whether it was Jane Campion for the Power of the Dog, who was a favorite to someone like Tom Hooper winning here for the King's Speech, when the BAFTA oddly enough, I'm pretty sure went for David Fincher and the DGA chose Iñárritu for Birdman, when the BAFTA and the Golden Globe went for Richard Linklater for Boyhood, right. So the DGA has a tremendous history. I think the last times that I've seen them sort of have a hiccup, it was 2012,. Right For R Goldblatt.
Joseph:Affleck, which is kind of like an asterisk there because he wasn't even nominated. But the winner did come from the nominees Life of Pi and Lee. And really the most notable one is when Sam Mendes wins the award for 1917 and the. Oscar ends with going to Bong Joon-ho for.
Jules:Parasite.
Joseph:Now maybe, if you do a little bit of a deeper analysis, when you kind of consider the Oscars, weighing the possibility of giving two directing Oscars to someone like you know, Sam Mendes, who doesn't have the heft of a filmography, of someone like, for example, Spielberg, who does have those two Oscars, maybe it was a little bit of a telltale sign that this was going to go Bong Joon-ho's way right.
Joseph:So, barring that, they're just an excellent precursor versus, you know, bafta. They went, as I said, for the Social Network Boyhood Aquire on the Western Front.
Joseph:So I kind of trust the dga more I think we have to say that sean baker is the favorite here, right, the one caveat I will say is this the one caveat, and it's kind of interesting to bring it up but if there is an achilles heel to the whole onora campaign is that the film could not muster a second below the line nomination other than film editing. And that's a little bit of an Achilles heel for any film that doesn't muster that second level of support. If you look at a film like Parasite, which wins both picture and director, it has an editing nomination and a production design nomination. If you look at a film this is especially true of contemporary films right, this is very difficult, you know. You look at all the Alexander Payne films. It's hard for them to ever get anything other than, you know, one level of support below the line. But if you look at something like Nomadland, right, it had that editing nomination, but it also had that cinematography nomination. Right.
Joseph:So when a Nora sort of fails to get a nomination other than editing, it's a little bit of a possibly a red flag.
Joseph:If he doesn't win here, I think that might be where Brady Corbett's campaign sort of exploits their advantage because the Boudoulas is nominated all over below the line Right, um, and so if I had to look for a couple of films that were able to do it, the only ones I really come up with and I think you'll find these sort of interesting and familiar, especially as you start talking about, you know um, best picture and, as we've already talked about, in editing, but you have the departed right, which one editing one picture, one director, it's only tech was editing right so out of five nominations it wins four, including director.
Joseph:You have, um, a couple years before, that million dollar baby right which I believe had eight nominations and wins again four, and all I had was that editing nomination. But those are a while back. And then a little bit further than that, you have traffic, which is again five nominations, I believe, and a winner of four. Um, and again it's only tech is editing.
Joseph:So it just brings up this idea for me that you know, if a nora is going to be a best picture, best director movie, it's probably going to have an excellent night and be a little bit on the on the four side of things which is tough to tell where you get that fourth win from, which is maybe why some people are bringing up Mikey Madison or the possibility of it winning editing, but other than that, I think that the DGA is going to sort of hold true and have Sean Baker win here Also. I think he's been doing it other than Jacques Garillard the longest and you could make the argument that he should have been here or his film should have been here back in 2017 for the Florida Project.
Jules:Right and I think that's a point I wanted to also stress is that, you know, on the surface it would seem like Brady Corbett would be the go-to here, because the film is just so grandiose and so, you know, the scale is so immense that it just screams best director, uh, for voters. That being said, you know, as we've talked about quite a few times, you know, the the film, the nature of that film, is not going to not everyone's going to love it. Yeah.
Jules:Um, and so that that's understandable. I mean, that's understood, um, but it's very true that you know. A con for Brady Corbett is that it's his third film. Yeah. And it's really the first time these filmmakers are being exposed to Brady Corbett, because the chances that they've seen or at least a large portion of them have seen Vox, lux and Childhood of a Leader, you know, are less likely.
Jules:Yeah, so this is their first like real exposure to this filmmaker. And when you put a contender like that against someone like Sean Baker, who I think more people in the Academy have been exposed to his work, Sean Baker has had, you know, a much longer career since, you know, the early 2000s. I believe Take Out was, which was his first, you know, celebrated film was in 2004. So he's just had such a longer, much longer trajectory. Yeah.
Jules:That when you put Brady Corbett against someone like that. You know, I'm just not sure that, no matter how big your movie is yeah, that really you know you can sort of eclipse that. Yeah.
Jules:So I think that's a big reason why that's making Sean Baker the favorite in this category. Also, jacques Auduard has been doing it for a very long time as well, but unfortunately he suffers from the sort of negativity that has surrounded that campaign. I mean that film, maybe not so much the Carlos Sofia Gascon tweets, but certainly the criticism that has been levied against that film.
Jules:He bears some of the brunt of that. That doesn't help him. And Koli Farzal? We've already talked about him as an actress. The substance is just. You know the fact that Koli Farzal even got nominated for that is a huge coup.
Joseph:Also a young filmmaker only by a second title, exactly Like Corbett.
Jules:So in this competition, you know, in this category, it just seems like sean baker is the obvious choice, right um now I will say that the achilles heel here for sean baker is again.
Joseph:We've talked about this issue how many can sean baker?
Joseph:actually win, and if his film is going to be a sort of traffic departed, sort of crash movie, it has to get three or four. That's if we're saying it's not like a spotlight movie with just picture and screenplay, right, you know, are they willing to give that many wins to sean baker? And the dga win, I think, is really telling. I don't think we came up with anyone who was, you know, reasonably as competitive in original screenplay um, at least not by. You know the numbers. And so can you give sean baker that many awards? Or do you want to try to spread the wealth a little bit? Because if you do, this would be the place where you could maybe give something else to, for example, something like the Brutalist. And then the other thing that is maybe at the, you know, an angle and advantage of the Brutalist is not only is it a giant film where, if you watched it or not, you sort of say, well, I have to get this director right.
Joseph:Because it's an immense film, but also the timeliness of it. You know it's an immigrant story. It's an.
Joseph:American saga and you know the story of the United States is changing by day. So it would, you know, send a message. I would think it sends a message from voters, and certainly international voters. And no surprise, it did really well at the BAFTA and winning best director. And it did really well at the Golden Globes winning best director, and so I think those, if something happens and a Noron does not win this race, I think you have to look at that. You have to look at too much Sean Baker, because we're giving him awards elsewhere and an opportunity to highlight this sort of American saga, which I think you and I are pretty confident is probably going to fall short of best picture, right, but it's a way to sort of say to audiences, you know, who haven't had an opportunity to see it yet go watch this movie, because you know what it's talking about in terms of the immigrant experience and American context, you know of its history and its future, you know. I think all those are things that you know voters are going to want to champion.
Jules:Right. I think that's a hundred percent accurate. I agree a hundred percent. So I think we're in agreement that our pick here is Sean Baker for Onora and our spoiler is Brady Corbett for the Brutalist?
Joseph:Yeah, exactly.
Jules:And finally, we've reached the last category. You know, you know it's taken us a bit to get here. Yeah.
Joseph:But the last category is Best Picture Right and the nominees are Well, the nominees were Onora the Brutalist, a Complete Unknown Conclave, dune Part 2,. Emilia Perez I'm Still here. Nickel Boys, the Substance and Wicked.
Jules:Okay, so I think this race has really dwindled to two people right, I mean two films.
Joseph:One film sort of surging very late in the game right and it's sort of a head-to-head yeah will it be an aura or will it be conclave? Exactly and so conclave has the sagG and the BAFTA on its side, and recency, I suppose the two most recent ones.
Jules:And Onora, has the PGA, the DGA and the WGA Right. Neither has the Golden Globe win. Yeah, interestingly enough.
Joseph:Which is good, because they both avoided the curse of the Golden Globe right, that's true, yeah, doesn't Onora have a little bit of the curse of the critics' choice? Doesn't that happen sometimes? I think sometimes, but not as of late. No, not as of late um, and so it's really.
Jules:Which way is the race gonna go? Is it gonna go towards conclave or towards an aura? And we were actually talking about this recently. You know the the path of conclave is eerily similar to the full monty, I think.
Joseph:Right, there's been a yeah Right.
Jules:The Full Monty won the SAG and the BAFTA. As a very British film Right and it still lost the Oscar Right To a film Titanic which won the DGA and the PGA.
Joseph:Right, exactly, except I think Titanic actually lost the the Writer's Guild as an original screenplay. I think it lost it to as good as it gets Right. So even Onora sort of has bested Titanic here. And having the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild and the Writers Guild.
Jules:Right. Well, Conclave was disqualified from the Writers Guild Right.
Joseph:Right, I hate to mention it, that's true. I think it would have won had it been there. Yeah, yeah.
Joseph:But I think the more recent you know Harrow-Lauer comparison that people are pointing out or at least you know we've thought about, we've discussed it as well is the whole Shape of Water, three Billboards breakdown Right Shape of Water, the winner of the Producers Guild Award and the Directors Guild Award, and Three Billboards, the winner at BAFTA and the winner at the SAG Awards, right and um. I'm pretty sure neither film would end up winning at the Writer's Guild Award and in fact, um, the screenplay categories all together went to a different film, something like Get Out, for example right yeah.
Joseph:so I think that in both instances, you know, titanic, the PGA DJ winner outdid the BAFTA SAG winner, and the same thing happened to Shape of Water, right. So I think there's been, you know, sustained momentum for Onora. The question is recency bias, the coda of it all you know, and part of me wonders if this isn't a year to split, a year to split the vote and to give one movie best picture, the one that cannot win best director, and give another movie best director, right, we've kind of talked about how both films are sort of feel like timely films, right, and they, they sort of feel like two different academies, remember we said how I was gonna say that he's gonna show up.
Jules:Which one's gonna show up? Is it gonna be the green book up? Is it going?
Joseph:to be the Green Book Academy, or is it going to be?
Jules:Conclave, or is it going to be the Parasite Academy? And if they do, it's going to be Enora.
Joseph:It's going to be Enora, exactly no case in point. You bring up Parasite. We talk about, I think, the first film since Parasite to be a. But if you look at Conclave, check so many of the boxes of what they traditionally like, right and no one has an issue with the film yet right.
Joseph:And we also talk about the timeliness of everything that's occurring in terms of you know what's the recent developments of the Pope, who we hope gets better soon. But you know, I mean Russian-US relations have been all over the headlines lately, right with the unfortunate offenses that have occurred at the un. So both films timely and I think both films right sort of speak to the moment, right, economic, uh, issues of the moment, political issues of the moment, um, so I I think it really is a tough race. I I don't think anyone should really say that anora has this in the bag. I think it's going to face quite a challenge here.
Jules:Academy, you know, again, the safer choice being Conclave. But you know, I do feel like there's you said timely there's like some aspects to Enora that I feel have the potential to be sort of timeless. So when I look at that ending, for example, which we've talked about a bit, such a powerful ending, the best ending of the year, you know there's something about watching that ending that feels like it's, you know, getting ready to be this timeless moment in this film that you look back on and you understand. Yes, this won Best Picture. I know of the group it would be my pick for the Best Picture. But there's something about that film that I think stands a greater chance of having those kinds of timeless moments stand out, you know, with time, more so than a film like Conclave, for some reason.
Jules:Now again, that doesn't mean that always matters. It didn't matter for Green Book, um. So I'm not saying that that's, you know, the prevailing factor here. But given all the things that are going for Onora, adding that extra layer for me just kind of sells me on Onora being the winner. Maybe if Onora had lost either the PGA or the DGA or the you know either of those.
Joseph:We had suspected that it wouldn't be perfect. There are so many films that read like producers, guild winners before Onora, right, right, when you have Wicked and A Complete Unknown there and the Brutalist. There are so many films and the fact that Onora won that is a huge coup, right.
Jules:And I'll also say that you know, since the PGA kind of replicates to a certain extent this preferential ballot, you know that. You know they've done pretty well recently and you know they mimicked the Oscars pretty well. You know, I know people were sort of really skeptical when Coda did well at the PGA and Household won the SAG, if it could carry that into a Best Picture win without being nominated for editing or director, et cetera, et cetera. And the PGA was one of the first signs that, yes, it's going to happen. Yeah, and it did yeah.
Jules:And so there's something to their. You know the way that their system works. That really mirrors the Academy system really well, and so I think there's a reason why Nora prevailed on the preferential ballot for the PGA. Yeah, and that's going to replicate at the Academy.
Joseph:Right. I mean I think it's also a question of you know, does Nora, does it get enough wins to get that best picture win? I mean it's gone as little as Spotlight with those two wins for screenplay and picture. You know, spotlight again a very specific type of movie that they're going to embrace. You know, based on a true story. You know there's. It's a Sean Baker film, so it has its edge.
Joseph:It has its confrontation, confrontational nature, which isn't always the Academy's cup of tea.
Joseph:And, like I said, I mean there are definitely going to be people in the Academy that say well, say well, this is, this is a, this is a way I can spread the wealth and I can give conclave picture and I can give you know, sean baker, director, and to me it could, it could read very much, like, you know, this is how I can give a bunch of corona and austria for roma and still give it to green book, because it's, you know, the the easiest film to swallow here.
Joseph:Um, and sort of puts my message or the message that I think is important, right in front of their face. It's a sort of way to, you know, have your cake and eat it too. And there's a part of me that thinks, you know, it's easier to see Sean Baker as a solo Best Director winner or a Best Director, best Screenplay winner than it is to see him, you know, the Academy taking this moment to embrace Onora so wholeheartedly. I think it would be great, I think it'd be incredibly encouraging and maybe spell, you know, this new chapter we're in in cinema.
Joseph:you know, in these dark and drying and challenging times that are just so overwhelming, the idea that we're, you know, going to come into a chapter of cinema that sees the Academy sort of embrace films, like the Country for Old Men and the Departed, and we're, you know, gonna come into a chapter of cinema that sees the academy sort of embrace films, like the country for old man and the departed, and we're going to come into this cycle of of embracing the challenging films that kind of reflect, you know, the fracturing, you know, or the fracturing consciousness of yeah of viewers in the united states and globally.
Joseph:It'd be great to see, and I think it would be a harbinger of that, and I'd love that. But there's part of me that feels like in my gut. You know, reading the history book, it's going to be easier to it's. It's more easy to imagine the history book reading Conclave for best picture, sean Baker for best director Right.
Jules:You know it's going to be. It's going to be a tight race. You know, I think Onora has the edge. I think most people think Onora has the edge. But again, you know, there has to be something to the fact that Onora didn't win that SAG, you know, and it could have won that SAG. Yeah, it didn't. They opted for something like Conclave instead. I don't think again that Onora has it in the bag, but I think there's enough things going for it that I give it just that edge. Um, and you're right, I think that it would be a very positive and hopeful sign. It's very especially for a certain kind of cinema, daring cinema in a way that doesn't really get embraced or spotlighted by the Academy enough. Um, so a win for Nora and for Sean Baker and Sean Baker's films as a whole is, you know, a wearing a win for that kind of daring cinema.
Joseph:Right, and so I was also going to bring up the idea we spoke about it briefly, uh, earlier today that idea that you know this is the moment, maybe the only moment that Indian Paintbrush, the company, that sort of bankrolled Conclave, is going to get a chance at that podium Right Not necessarily Tessa ross, who's a wonderful producer. She's going to keep making wonderful films.
Joseph:She'll have other opportunities but indian paintbrush they bankroll all of west anderson films and we know that west anderson is the type of artist right that it's going to be so difficult for him to ever really reach that stage. He's just so true to his vision, not not unlike a David Lynch in his own way.
Jules:Not unlike Sean Baker.
Joseph:Not unlike Sean Baker possibly, but I just feel like maybe this would be the moment to sort of have Indian Paintbrush sort of step up on that stage as well. Yeah, I think that could possibly be a factor for some people.
Jules:Right, well, all that being said, two-headed race. Yeah. I'm going to go with Onora as my pick for the Best Picture winner, and the spoiler is Conclave.
Joseph:I sort of alluded to it in our previous video and you know, go check that out if you haven't yet when we talked about all the categories below the line.
Joseph:I think this race is strictly going to down to best film editing I think honestly, if conclave has the strength to win best film editing and be more than 50 years of history, 1950s, king solomon's mind, then I think it's gonna have enough popularity when when Best Picture, and if it doesn't, then it will not win Best Picture. That doesn't mean Anora has to win editing. Right now, if you look at our video, I'm predicting Wicked and we go through a great argument about why that is and how we got there, and please go check that out. But Anora doesn't have to win editing to win picture. Conclave has to win editing to win picture.
Joseph:conclave has to win editing to win picture right and I would argue that should it have enough favor to beat all the history against it to win editing, then it should easily have enough favor to take that sag and bap to win into a best picture win. So it's going to come down to editing. Right now I'm I'm going wicked for that category and so for best picture, I I agree with you. I think think it's a Nora right now. It's one hell of a feat. I think Conclave can do it. I feel like you know the coda of it all, the green book of it all. It happens, you know, I mean we're coming off Oppenheimer, which was a pretty good Best Picture nominee.
Joseph:And we can only you know the Academy is only going to have such. You know the Academy is only going to have so many good choices. They're going to make a less than successful choice at some point. Right. And that might be this year. Right. So I think Conclave will only go so far as its editing nomination or win. Very interesting, so I go with Nora and my spoiler is Conclave.
Jules:Okay, so we're in agreement. Then, um, I think what you know, I think you're right by best editing, I think we'll have a pretty good idea yeah if anora is winning or not. If anora wins best editing.
Joseph:You know it's winning best picture yeah and again, if conclave loses best editing, I think it has to lose best picture. And if it wins best editing, you already know it's gonna best picture. It all comes down to the editing category again, right.
Jules:All right. Well, that was a very long, deep dive into our final predictions for the Academy Awards. It's been a long run, right? We're going to finally see what happens on Sunday.
Joseph:We look forward to seeing what happens, and then we'll have our post-mortem of the events that transpired.
Jules:We'll see how many we got right. Can will smith?
Joseph:come yet can you? Imagine we get another will smith moment.
Jules:Oh man no no, sometimes you feel like some people tune into the academy awards just to see if some some kind of weird crap is going to happen.
Joseph:Like that would it be great if they showed the academy awards unedited, like not none of that broadcasting crap like if they charge for that, I guarantee you that people will pay to see it like an unedited version of it, where you get to see yeah all of the things, all of the things that nobody wants you to see, and nothing edited or bleeped out. I guarantee you. You charge 25 bucks and people will give you 25 bucks to watch that yeah, yeah, no, I think that's a good point.
Jules:So we'll finally see what happens on Sunday and then we'll have our you know our take on what happened and you know how we're feeling about it.
Joseph:I forgot to mention one thing because it's such an off chance, but I do want to say one thing. It's such an off chance, but I do want to say one thing Right now, in our predictions we have Fernanda Torres for actress and I'm still here finally winning for Brazil. I want to say that, objectively speaking, my feelings on the film aside, Onora has done an excellent job beating most of these films, but it has not yet beaten I'm Still here. They have never gone head to head, that's all I'm saying. That if something wild happens and I'm Still here, wins Best Picture. You said it first, I said it first. It comes down to this idea that Nora never took on. I'm Still here, head to head. That's all I'm saying to that. Again, it's not wishful thinking. I'm still here, head to head. That's all I'm saying to that. Again, it's not wishful thinking, I'm just calling it right Saying it.
Jules:I don't think that's going to happen, but definitely you have all credit If it does happen you know, coda cut wasn't Murphy's, murphy's law. Coda's law.
Joseph:Anything can happen.
Jules:I'll write it good note to leave it on. Anything can happen. Hopefully it's not a boring ceremony. You know I'd be nice, I think it's kind of been a chaotic season, so the chances of it being a boring ceremony are not high, which is nice, you know in a way, but also nerve wracking. So we'll see what happens and we'll have a full report right after the ceremony sometime next week. Until then, I'm Jules.
Jules:And I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Http//creativecommonsorg licenses by 3.0.
Joseph:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.