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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2025-2026: Forecasting Venice Film Festival, Predicting Telluride Film Festival Lineup
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- Unlocking the connection between the Venice Film Festival and the Oscars
- Alexander Payne brings his unique sensibility to the Venice Jury
- Yorgos Lanthimos ditches Searchlight for Focus Features with BUGONIA
- Netflix Triple Threat - JAY KELLY vs A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE vs FRANKENSTEIN
- Can A24 afford a poor showing at Venice after disastrous Cannes? They're betting it all on THE SMASHING MACHINE
- Premieres without studios - a Fox Searchlight-sized hole in Competition, will they buy a film?
- NO OTHER CHOICE is another punch from Neon
- Red flags on Julia Roberts and Luca Guadagnino collaboration AFTER THE HUNT
- Potential standouts in the International Film and Documentary race
- The return of Julian Schanbel and Gus Van Sant
- Willem Dafoe premieres LATE FAME from Kent Jones and Samy Burch
- The early frontrunners for selection at the TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL
Hey, welcome back to Academy Anonymous. I'm Jules and I'm Joseph, and on this episode we're going to be talking at length about the Venice Film Festival, which starts on Wednesday, the 27th Exactly, and then, at the very tail end, maybe we'll talk a tiny bit about the Telluride Film Festival, which starts on Friday, right, exactly. I think it's an excellent time to start digging into, maybe take a profile picture of the different movies and what kind of impact they can have, or maybe what kind of impact we're expecting them to have. We're anticipating, um, and I think maybe the best place to start is, you know, taking a look at the festival historically speaking, um, it's a very important stop. It's, it's been a very important stop for a long time. Um, yeah, recently, especially, uh, yeah, uh, certainly. But, um, if you even look back at something like if you go back 20 years to 2005, um, when broback mountain won the big award, golden lion, um, what you tend to see is that this festival will produce, in general, at least two best picture nominees from within its competition sections, specifically the competition section.
Speaker 1:It's not always the case that there's two. Sometimes that may go down to one, and there's even been a few off years where you have maybe none, but that is the exception Most of the time. You're going to get two, which is really important because it means that not only that, among that list of competition titles, we're going to get two, which is really important because it means that not only that, among that list of competition titles, we're going to have our first taste of some kind of best picture uh nominee, in much the same way that whoever wins the palm d'or sort of, you know, is essentially, yeah, it's solidifying its place among best picture um. You're going to get two people out of this venice competition lineup, but you're also going to cut out a bunch of movies because they've never necessarily gotten, for example, five movies from competition into best picture um. So you're going to start getting the impression of if there, if all the movies are good, who has an advantage and which movies maybe just aren't good, and so it'll be clear that there are you, you know a couple of favorites Now. So again, if you look at something like 05, brokeback Mountain is the big winner and gets a Best Picture nomination, and this is a year of only five Best Picture nominees, but in that same competition lineup you'll have Good Night and Good Luck and that'll also score a Best Picture nomination. And so I guess what I'm trying to say is that, even when the list was downgraded to just five nominees, venice has always been good at letting us know you know, maybe possibly likely two people who are going to get nominated. And if you look at 05 and you look at that list of competition and you start to maybe make some educated guesses about who could have rounded out a top 10, even in 05, the Constant Garder is also on that Venice competition list it could have. Also, it could have been Exactly, it could have made it into best picture In the year of 10. Exactly. And so that's why I say that it's if you're, if you're erring on the side of caution, I think you want to pick maybe two movies that are going to break out.
Speaker 1:Now, that's strictly speaking in competition. There have been years where a title that's outside of competition in a parallel section, but usually just in the out of competition section they can get into Best Picture as well. It does not happen as often as in competition, but if you look at, for example, you're like 2018, you have your two movies from competition that will graduate to a Best Picture nomination. You have your two movies from competition that will graduate to a Best Picture nomination and that's the Favorite, and Roma, but A Star is Born plays out of competition for Warner Brothers and they're able to have that movie also be nominated for Best Picture. So it's not unheard of to have a third Best Picture nominee among the Venice films. It's just more likely that that third nominee it's extremely likely that it'll be in another section, and that section is usually Usually out of competition, exactly. And so another really good example Is a year like 2016, for example, when La La Land and Arrival Both play in competition and they both get into Best Picture, but there is a third movie within Venice that gets in and that's Hacksaw Ridge, which played out of competition. So three movies could possibly happen. Just look for that third movie somewhere else, and two movies are definitely going to happen.
Speaker 1:And so the most recent example, let's look at last year. You have the Brutalist right, which makes it into Best Picture from competition in Venice, and you have I'm Still here, which makes it to Best Picture out of competition from Venice no, in competition, excuse me, from in competition at Venice. If you had to maybe pick a title that played somewhere else, that maybe would have gotten close. That you and I maybe thought is at the heels of the 10th spot. It would have possibly been something like September 5. Well, that played in Venice on a side section which was actually Horizons, which doesn't have the best track record for sort of crossover Oscar success whatsoever. But if there had to be a third film you would imagine that that might have been a really good fit.
Speaker 1:Um, I will also say that with those two movies that get nominated for for best picture from venice, it doesn't really matter where they come from. If you look at something like the brutalist, last year it went to competition without any sort of distributor. You know it was going to make a sale at the festival, right, so it doesn't matter that it wasn't coming right out of you know the slate from Focus Features or Searchlight or whatever. And if you look at a film like I'm Still here, which is again extremely fascinating, it's coming from Sony Picture Classics, which does well at the Oscars in general. But Sony Picture Classics has never actually had a movie in Venice competition that had made it into Best Picture, not since 2005 at least, and so that's kind of a big historic thing for them to have a movie at Venice in competition, go to a Best Picture nomination. They hadn't really done that, at least not since 05. So not only is that a big deal, but if you kind of look at it, if you run through the list of what those movies are, those two movies that make it into Best Picture foreign films are not necessarily, or foreign language films are not necessarily, the best odds.
Speaker 1:It tends to be more English language. So, for example, in 2019, you had Joker and Marriage Story English language. 2017, you had Shape of Water, three Billboards English language, and so they tend to favor English language films. 2022, you had Banshees of Einisharan and Tar, and so the fact that Sony Picture Classics, which doesn't do it often, was able to do it for a foreign film, and that the other film happened to be this, this enormous three-hour epic that didn't even have a distributor with it, it just goes to show you that just the quality and taste of the films match well enough with the industry voters that you should see two movies. Get in Now, if you do.
Speaker 1:If you, it has happened that you just see one, but especially when you expand that list to 10 nominees, you force 10 nominees I think the odds favor two, and so, for example, a few years that only saw one. For example, in 2021, only one competition title made it into best picture, which was power of the dog, which was a huge success, but dune played out of competition and made it to best picture also. So, again, maybe not three from venice a year, but you still had to. You look at something like 2020 nomadland was the big winner and it made it into best picture, and it was a year of only eight nominees. I believe one night in miami was playing supposedly, um in us was a year of only eight nominees. I believe One Night in Miami was playing supposedly out of competition section, and had there been a forced 10 nominees, it would have been an excellent bet and that was a COVID year.
Speaker 1:You look at something like, for example, before 2016,. You tend to just have the one movie that gets in, so Spotlight gets in, and the year before that, birdman gets in, and that was a little bit of a dry spell for Venice. I don't think they were making as notable a selection as attention calling a selection, so they didn't get movies in At the same time. Those were also shorter lists, right? Those were, you know, lists of eight films, I think each year, 2015, and in 2014, um, a year like 2013, you had filomena get in from competition and then again you had warner brothers. Excuse me, you had warner brothers outside of competition, uh, able to push gravity into best picture, right. So I just like the idea that their track record, their track record, demonstrates that there should be two films. If you want to be very strict and just predict one success, one crossover success, you could do that, but I think the trend right now is for two, and so, as we start breaking down the nominees, I'll ask you at the end who you think is looking the best to have one of those two spots.
Speaker 1:And then, I think, other trends that we can sort of point out to larger trends is you know, these films tend to be big movies. They get nominations across the board, but they also usually have corresponding directing nominations, writing nominations and acting nominations. So even something like I'm Still here, it's not foreign film and picture, it's foreign film actress and picture. The Bueless got three acting nominations, along with writing and directing. Maestro had acting nominations along with directing and writing.
Speaker 1:Poor Things as well, banshees, tar, roma, the Favorite, and even the out competition titles like hexal ridge, was still able to get directing even if it didn't get writing, and it had an actor as well, and so whatever movies come out of venice, they should possibly be like these bigger package movies yeah, they're going to be able to get into best picture because you have actors who enjoy the performances, yeah, and writers who enjoy the writing, and directors who enjoy the way that the film is directed, and so I think all that's going to be a factor and should hopefully maybe give you a clue as to who you think is really going to pop in this section and has the best path forward to securing those nominations. And and speaking of acting and we'll get into this later but the other thing you can look at is if you look outside of best picture, you know venice has been historically pretty good at getting actors in, despite them not landing in best picture movies. So, for example, in 2020, aside from those best picture movies, you have someone like vanessa kirby able to be nominated after winning the best actress award for pieces of a woman, and you have, for example, despite not winning any award and really sort of struggling at the end of the race, kristen Stewart got nominated for Spencer, and I think it's enormously important that it was a film that premiered at Venice and had a positive reaction coming out of Venice. Ana de Armas for Blonde is another one I would want to say that you know, had Ana de Armas for Blonde is another one I would want to say that you know, had Ana de Armas not played Venice and played South by Southwest instead, or Sundance right, that that might not have happened. Maybe even can it might not have happened.
Speaker 1:And you were saying that there's also a trend in that a lot of the performances that get spotlighted post-Can and end up getting an Oscar nomination as of late at least, the trend has been they tend to be actors playing real people. Oh yeah, yeah. If you kind of look at it, you know, among the performances that will come from Venice and be nominated for an Oscar, you will see a lot of sort of takes on real life figures. So you have again the work in maestro, for example, um. You have the work in blonde. You have the work in spencer, um. It's not always the case, um, but even, for example, something like pieces of a woman right, which is which is fiction, and nomadland, which is fiction. In venice you also had um, the, the supporting performance from one night in miami, which was based on a real figure, right, and so I do think that that's something that occurs. If you look at something like 2019, maybe there's a little bit of a dry spell, but we are on a streak since 2020, I believe, to have some real life figures, have their performance shown in Venice and then have that performance be selected for an Academy Award, you know, several months down the road. And so I think that's another thing to look at Right, and I think that if we take all the information and all the research that you've done and we look at the lineup, the official lineup in competition for Venice, a group of films is certainly the group that to pay most attention to is j kelly begonia um, no other choice, even though that would be a foreign film.
Speaker 1:That part-time wook hasn't been here in a while, um, and that's something to keep an eye on. Frankenstein, and then you have a house of dynamite, and then you have a couple of you know, know real life figures, films around, revolving around real life figures, like the Smashing Machine and the Testament of Anne Lee, also being in competition, and so these, this, this group of films, are the ones that we're most keeping an eye on and who, technically, with all the information you've said, joseph, are the ones that tend to break out. Yeah, exactly, I think you're right to point out those projects, and as we start going through the lineup and pinpointing movies, we'll start handicapping who has the best opportunity here. But, yeah, I think the films that you just mentioned are the ones I think, to you know, watch most closely from competition.
Speaker 1:Before getting into the details about it, I would say that it's worth mentioning the jury, and so the jury president this year is Alexander Payne, right, and I think other notable jury members who was last there for, I believe, downsizing I believe he was there for downsizing, which was not necessarily a good year for him, I believe, downsizing I believe he was there for downsizing, which was not necessarily a good year for him. And the other sort of members of the jury include Fernanda Torres, who's sort of an alumnus from last year, right, last year, yeah, from I'm Still here and again, just to remind you that I'm Still here was ironed for best picture based on the strength of the campaign and the quality of the movie, but it wasn't necessarily a favorite coming out of Venice, you know it lost Best Actress, it won Screenplay. It was sort of a film that a lot of people, I think, really really liked passionately or really loved passionately. But there's something very naturalistic about the piece that didn't. You know, it's just not necessarily like a Poor Things, for example, or a La La Land that just immediately has all this display of emotion and enthusiasm coming from the people who watch it, and so I do think it was extremely celebrated. But it was also sort of, you know, possibly overshadowed by glitzier. You know, glitzier, it's your right, had fernanda tours won the best actress prize, as some people were predicting after when people were thinking about who was going to win the awards, I think it might have, you know, certainly would have gotten what it got in the end, but faster, exactly, absolutely. I completely agree with you. But so if we look at the rest of this jury, we have Mohamed Rousseloff, who had success last year, I think, for the Seat of the Sacred Fig yes, wonderful movie, but that was at Cannes. Fernando Torres is there. Zhao Tao, who is amazing we love Zhao Tao Exactly. And then also Christian Mongeau, the Romanian filmmaker, who is probably most well-known. For four months, four months, three weeks, two days Exactly, he's there, and so Alexander Payne is the jury president, and this may become a factor later and maybe we'll mention it towards the end, but sometimes Venice could acquire this reputation of the jury president, maybe playing favorites. I remember in 2018, for example, when Roma did really well at the festival and I think it won the biggest prize. That year, guillermo del Toro was the president. I think it won the biggest prize that year, guillermo del Toro was the president, right and so For example, the year that Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett won or, yes, brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett won, I think in 2007, best Actor and Best Actress, alejandro González-Señorito, was part of the jury.
Speaker 1:He was part of the jury even if he wasn't the president, right. You know, technically, zeng Y part of the jury, even if he wasn't the president. You know, technically, zhang Yimou was the president that year and they gave the prize to Ang Lee. I don't know if maybe they're colleagues, so I'm sure they've spoken before but even someone like last year when Isabel Huppert, for example, had the choice to give it to Fernanda Torres, but Nicole Kidman is right there. I don't know. I think it can debate that.
Speaker 1:Maybe the jury president's preference could play a factor. And in this case you have Alexander Payne, who's worked with George Clooney, who is in competition, yeah, and is certainly a colleague of Noah Baumbach's yeah. He's also, I'm sure, really good friends with Jim Jarmusch. He's also, I'm sure, really good friends with Jim Jarmusch, you know. So I'm sure he also has a wide palette of appreciation for film. But I do think that it's only human for these things to sort of come up in discussion, at least as an observer, you know, you can't help but notice.
Speaker 1:But anyway, so that's the jury, and let's start looking at the competition lineup and let's single out a few titles that we think could break through and maybe talk a little bit about them. So the first one I want to point out is Begonia, right. And so you have Yorgos. He's already won the big one, right, and this is his third time competing in competition. Exactly, this will be his third time. He won the big one for poor things which Damien Giselle gave to them, who was again a comic of Emma Stone, whatever. You just can't help but notice it. But even something like the Favorite which played here, won two awards, and it won an award for Olivia Colman. So at this point Yorgos has gotten his performers recognized. I think he's been recognized as a director. He has won the biggest award, and the question mark is can he even win any more awards here? Are you just going to say I want to give it to someone who is not Yorgos?
Speaker 1:I would definitely say I don't know if you agree that Venice has been the kinder festival to Yorgos, as opposed to Cannes. Would you agree with that? Well, cannes had Kinds of Kindness last year and Killing of a Sacred Deer and the Lobster. And the Lobster, yes, he had more crossover. I would agree with that. Exactly, more crossover. Oscar success with Venice premiering films.
Speaker 1:Now, I'll also say that those Venice premiering films have been give or take period pieces. Yes, I think that matters, or we can at least call them costume pieces, right, and so here we have a more contemporary Yorgos, which can sometimes be a more confrontational Yorgos I don't want to say edgier, but possibly a little bit more prickly. If you saw Kinds of Kindness, this is maybe something you got a taste for. Um, right, and so I think that could be interesting. Um, he tends to do better with period pieces than contemporary pieces. Um, the lobster got an eye for screenplay. Yes, for sure. Exactly, I mean, at the Oscars. Uh, lobster got an eye for screenplay, but nowhere else.
Speaker 1:Um, one of his first films, um dog tooth, was nominated for foreign film, I believe. Um, but really the big behemoths have been, uh, period pieces, exactly because he has that below the line support and begonia, isn't that? Um, I will say it's kind of interesting also to note, historically, like when yorgos has had, you know, a good premiere at venice. He has had fox searchlight have his back, yeah, and so that's the favorite and, um, poor things. And this time he's working with focus, right, which is kind of interesting, right, because they've had such a tremendous collaboration in the past that it's kind of weird to see yorgos here with focus instead of searchlight. Yeah, it's a little bit strange to me.
Speaker 1:Um, I should also mention that, you know, in my research, historically speaking, when I pointed out those films that make it into best picture, the studio to sort of beat, you know, since 2009, um, the expanded list, the studio that has had most success has been searchlight, and so venice has been incredibly, incredibly good to searchlight. Yeah, we're talking about black swan, we're talking about banshees of anisharan, right, nomadland. Um, searchlight, I think, would be the favorite here, but it's odd because Searchlight doesn't even have a film here this year, which is odd. I mean, I think the last time I saw them not have a serious film here was 2016, and they ended up buying Jackie. Yeah, someone would wonder if maybe this year they're buyers. Yeah, they may be buyers, but I do think it's interesting to note that searchlight does the best here. They're not going and they're not even going with their boy, yorgos, right? Um, so I think that's an interesting thing to think about. Um, the other studio that has second best maybe we'll talk about in a little bit, because their film will come up as netflix. Yeah, netflix, who out of those uh, I, 16 years since 2009, has gotten four films in from that competition section? Searchlight has gotten eight. Well, even this year, out of 21 titles, they've got three. Yeah, they have sort of stacked the board in their favor. So I think that's an interesting aspect to the Yorgos bid.
Speaker 1:I mean, obviously, all eyes are going to be on the performances, right, emma Stone, jesse Plemons but I wonder if that's kind of a con, because Emma Stone has been handsomely rewarded, already has two lead actress Oscars. I wonder if there's a sort of I don't want to say Emma Stone fatigue, but certainly a. You know we can pause, we don't have to, you know, nominate Emma so quickly after her second Oscar, yeah, um. So I think, and also you know that the while the collaboration is a great one, the Yorgos Emma Stone collaboration, it's still something that they've been very exposed to already, um, and so I wonder if that's going to break new ground. I'm not sure.
Speaker 1:And the thing about Jesse Plemons is, I think he'd be an amazing contender. However, as we were saying, I worry that it's a contemporary piece and in Jesse Plemons' case, he's already been recognized with a nomination not super long ago for the Power of the Dog, right, I do think it's interesting of the possibility is interesting that Jesse Plemons could be the rare actor to win both a Cannes Best Actor Prize and a Venice Best Actor Prize. Yeah, and pretty close together also, right, and I think also Back to back, exactly, yeah, consecutively, I think, yeah, he would be in rare company there, if, if any. I do think that for a while we had that Jesse Plemons streak, until A24 decided to not campaign Civil War. But Jesse Plemons has been great at getting his movies into Best Picture. If he gets nominated himself for Best Actor. At least. That's a category shift. Yes, and we've spoken before of the power of the category shift. Exactly that's important for voters to feel like it's different, because I've never nominated Jesse for lead and he has the skill to carry a movie, um. And I also think another interesting thing to think about is that Jesse, technically he's a little bit ahead for the Academy and behind with the precursors, and what I mean by that is that when he gets in for power of the Dog he didn't have a Golden Globe nomination or a SAG nomination. So maybe a place like the SAG is really sort of chomping at the bit to have an opportunity to finally nominate him individually in some kind of category, and that's going to help him, I think. Also the young man who has a supporting role there, he might be a little bit of a scene stealer. So that's something to look at, and I think also it's going to be exciting when we start seeing some reactions.
Speaker 1:I've always debated whether or not emma stone is leading this right, right, and so it's going to be interesting to find out, because I would argue, actress is empty, and so I would rather. I'd rather someone be an actress than it's supporting actresses. It's more fool. And then the other thing I would say is again with what you had mentioned about Emma Stone and her work with Yorgos is can Emma Stone even get that nomination for Yorgos? I mean, there is Jennifer Lawrence and her collaboration with David or Russell Right right, right, exactly. So she was able to get Silver Linings and lead American Hustle and Supporting and Joy lead Right right, right. Emma Stone is already a two-time winner, but you have Emma Stone sort of shaving her head and possibly playing more of an antagonistic character, and those may all be things that voters really savor.
Speaker 1:We're going to talk about more of this throughout the season, but Best Actress needs a veteran. We need a veteran in that top five and right now you would think there are many options, but there aren't. And some of the options that we do have, I think, have really problematic cases like Julia Roberts and After the Hunt and Cinque Revo and Wicked for Good. So you know we need a veteran. Is Emma Stone going to go lead for Begonia? I'm not sure. Is Emma Stone going to go lead for Begonia? I'm not sure. But if this pops at Venice, then certainly you know, I'm not sure that they would have a hard time placing her again for another nomination for this. Yeah, I agree.
Speaker 1:And also, actually I wanted to mention before we move on from Begonia, is that it is a remake. That's right. Yes, that's a very important aspect, and the team that made the original are associated to this project, which I think matters and I think is important. Yeah, so, addressing that, which I absolutely agree with you, this film is based on a previous film called Save the Green Planet, which was a film from South Korea, I believe, and this film in and of itself is sort of a partnership with CJ E&M, which is a company, a film company out of South Korea, and you may recognize their logo from movies, like you know, a lot of the Bong Joon-ho movies, for example. They've worked together and so I think there was an announcement, I think earlier this year or late last year, this idea that the company wants to explore remaking or sort of, you know, having these projects that are in their library, bringing them to the US, bringing them to US audiences, and they don't specify that they're all going to be remakes. They may just release some of that catalog here for the first time, or maybe for the first time so extensively, but this project is, I think, born out of that sort of same initiative from that company to, you know, harbor more of a creative footprint here in the US, and so I think that's going to be an interesting thing to look at. Yeah, I think that's a positive thing. I think it's a positive thing. I think it's going to be interesting. But I think I mean coming right out of the gate, if you have a film that captures audiences and all of a sudden is some kind of front runner, that's a huge win for your company. Yeah, and I think the industry is looking at that. I think the industry is looking to see okay, well, how is this first endeavor of this South Korean, really well-known company working with international artists to remake something from their library? What kind of success is that going to have? And I think what's also going to be interesting is that if you look at any sort of footage from Save the Green Planet and you look at any footage from Begonia, like the trailer, tonally, they look so different. They do. They look so different. Yeah, they do, um, but I think that's something that voters are going to appreciate. Yeah, um, but so I I'm glad you brought that up. I think that's going to be fascinating. I can't wait to see how that turns out.
Speaker 1:Um, probably another big movie to talk about in this lineup is jay kelly. It's a stacked cast. Um, uh, this is, I believe, noah bomback's uh, second third. It's his third, his third film in competition, right? Um, after white noise and marriage story. One was a huge success and one was a huge debacle. Right, and all All three are from Netflix. Yeah, and I think Netflix is under the impression that Jay Kelly is their big candidate. It has, again, a stacked cast. It certainly seems to be about something that they would have an interest in Certain themes about Hollywood showbiz, and Noel Baumbach has yet to be nominated for best director. Um, so one wonders if this is really the breakout film for Noel Baumbach to finally go all the way and have it be a huge contender. At the same time, I personally have doubts if it's going to rank among his best films and and be that kind of vehicle that be that is able to go all the way. It's interesting.
Speaker 1:I wasn't even a huge fan of marriage story. To be perfectly honest, I love marriage story. I kind of had the feeling where, like, if everyone loves the bomb back film, I. I actually did not like it that much. I prefer the bomb back films that did not get a best picture, um, but Bombeck films that did not get an, I am, a best picture, but I do think you bring up a huge point. So, first of all, netflix has a lot of movies here.
Speaker 1:Jay Kelly, I think, comes to the forefront. Bombeck it's his third time, like Yorgos, but he hasn't won. He hasn't won, unlike Yorgos. Unlike Yorgos, you know, you have George Clooney, who is just, I think, synonymous with Italy now, and so I can't imagine that. You know, the press and audiences there aren't going to really enjoy having him be at the festival. It looks like it really caters to sort of what he can bring to any project, project.
Speaker 1:Um, the cast is absolutely stacked, which can be a double-edged sword. Um, people are already talking about, you know, the return of laura dern and adam sandler, again, right, um, but this cast includes, you know, billy kudrow and, um, so many people that it might be difficult, and international people. That wonderful actor, I think his name is lars, yeah, um, he's in this film as well, and so, and so it has a lot of these, a lot of things going for it. You know the Americans are going to like it because you got George Clooney and no Bob back there. That brings in the independent people. But international audience is going to like it because it's they.
Speaker 1:It's set in Italy, as far as I know, and you have international members to the cast right, and critics might like it because it has this sort of metafiction aspect going to it and you could argue that if we're going to play friends, you know this would be the movie that Alexander Payne is going to adore because it has his previous collaborator in it, george Clooney from the Descendants. But it's also a road trip movie, right, and it has. I'm sure Alexander Payne, you know, has a fine appreciation for you know what adam sandler can bring to any movie, um, but he has his former collaborator, laura dern, in the movie right, and noah bombeck, alexander payne, both screenwriters, both, you know, known for their writing right, right, um, and so on paper. If the festival was canceled and none of the films could show, if alexander payne probably had to pick one movie to give an award to that you didn't see at all, yeah, you could argue, would be jay kelly, jay kelly, um, but I do think that there are some issues with it in the sense that, like you know, sometimes if you're the favorite, it's not a good, a good spot to be in. Remember, I always go back to noah bomback did not stick the landing with white noise, which was tough because that novel is just so seminal, right, um.
Speaker 1:And that same year, bardo, you know, just did not take off and did not have many fans for the film, which I love, by the way. I actually, I really love Bardo, um, and I wish I could see those 20 minutes that were cut out of the film. I like Bardo too, yeah, right, but so, like, there's that other project that's maybe a little bit self-reflexive but just turns off a lot of people, and so it'll be interesting. And another interesting thing will be if it does find success there, does that success carry over? Because, like I said, george Clooney in Italy on a road trip to Alexander Payne might not have the same resonance in New York, might not have the same resonance. Is it playing Telluride? Yes, in Telluride. It's not going to Toronto. No, it's not. I think that's interesting. I think that's interesting because, but it's the one that's, it's. It's just short of that to be perfect. Yeah, otherwise it's going to the other three yeah, yff tell you right and uh, right, but toronto could possibly be the more mainstream populist festival and it's opting not to go there and so, just you know, is it the film that people want right now? Um, yeah, on that note, I will say that of, we'll talk about the next.
Speaker 1:The other two netflix movies next, I will say that the one on paper that sounds like the big push from netflix is jay kelly, but the one that to me sounds with most potential is actually catherine bigelow's movie, um, a house Dynamite, which is also going to play the New York Film Festival. This is Catherine Bigelow's return to the Venice competition, since I think it was, yeah, 2008 for the Hurt Locker, which kind of registered with the Academy in 2009. And I don't know, seeing the premise of that movie, it just sounds very timely of the moment and I see very little possibility for it to not be a big success for her. I mean, I agree on paper. The one that may be about something a little bit more urgent is House of Dynamite. I think this is Catherine Bigelow's one of her first, or maybe her first collaboration with Netflix, which is maybe where some of my distrust comes which, again, on paper, is an excellent project, but it just did not have, um, enough of a, enough of a unique sort of storytelling perspective to make the project stand out enough, and so part of me does wonder if working with netflix is going to dim down some of the creativity of the project. There's also some aspects that I think could be um problematic.
Speaker 1:Again, it's a big ensemble, it's a great cast, it's an amazing cast, right, that's going for it, yeah, and you have Tracy Letts, you have Rebecca Ferguson, you have Idris Elba, greta Lee, willa Fitzgerald, and so you have A group of people who've yet to be recognized by their peers Collectively, yeah, collectively, like a who's who of actors who have not scored a nomination. But also, it's kind of interesting because when you look at Zero Dark Thirty right, it's another very good cast, but you do have that central figure who's able to sort of carry the piece with Jessica Chastain, right, and so I do wonder if we're going to have that this time. So I'm debating whether the film is going to sort of format itself more like vignettes and we're sort of going to travel from one perspective to the other, right, um, as opposed to intertwined, exactly as opposed to intertwined or, for example, idris elba being the leading character and, you know, dealing with, um, this particular, uh part of the storytelling world, and then this particular part of the storytelling world and, and sort of you know, having idris Elba be the surrogate point of view for the audience member. I do wonder if the film is going to depart from that sort of Zero Dark Thirty format and we're instead going to have a. This is how it would happen in real life if missiles were coming towards us from the perspective of someone you know who has to give the press conference, and then the perspective of someone who is actually with the president, and then the perspective of, you know, and we're going to see a bunch of, like I said, the jets, like almost episodic, right.
Speaker 1:And then another question I have is the idea that the screenwriter on this is the screenwriter from Jackie, who won screenplay For Jackie. Screenplay For Jackie, yes, and I think that that's part of the appeal why they said this is a great project to have at Venice, because not only do we have the director of the Herlocker but we have the writer from Jackie on it. But I do wonder, thinking back on Jackie, if the script is necessarily the tightest part about it, and I think that, jackie, the script is good, but I think that so much of what Pablo brings to it creatively is a standout, and again you have the Natalie Portman performance, sort of holding all these things together, and so there's where some of my skepticism comes from. But on a subject, on a level of subject matter, it seems like a project that would really stand out and I also think that, like as you said, it got invited to New York, and I know that New York isn't necessarily New York is always going to invite Jim Jarmusch. They're not necessarily always going to invite Catherine Bigelow, right, and so when they invite this film, it's probably because they have a lot of admiration for some aspect yes, about how it was made. Yeah, yeah, admiration for some aspect about how it was made? Yeah, I agree. And you know, catherine Bigelow has been missing in action for a while. You know, let's not pretend as if, since the Hurt Locker, she's only had a string of misses. She had one film that came out in 2017, detroit, which was critically acclaimed. It just did poorly at the box office. I think it came out around this time, august yeah, around this time and just never really, you know, transcended that Right, but it was by no means a poorly received movie. Yeah, so I think we're pretty confident it's going to be well received and that, given the sort of political landscape, or really just the landscape of you know, the country at this moment, I feel it stands to be a film that really, as I said, stands out. Yeah, yeah, I mean, I would hope so.
Speaker 1:I think one one of the strong aspects of the Hurt Locker was the script. I just don't want this film to sort of feel or be dismissed by some people, as it's an interesting piece of, you know, conjecture or fantasy on what the situation would be like. But it is fantasy. It's not like Zero Dark Thirty, when you're trying to chronicle some element of reality that is deeply there. And certainly the same thing for the Heart Locker and certainly for Detroit. So I do. How do I say this? I think she's an extraordinary filmmaker, but I worry about Netflix bringing the what's that film from Adam McKay Don't Look Up. I'm worried about the don't look up of it, all of the hypotheticalness. That's interesting. That's where my fear comes from. That's interesting.
Speaker 1:And then the other Netflix film in competition is Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein. A huge passion project for him, finally making Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein A huge passion project for him, finally making it to the screen, it looks like an enormous endeavor. He kind of revisits that in all his films, like the Frankenstein aspect of creation, and so I think we're all excited to see that there's an aspect of Frankenstein that to me at this moment feels a little bit too similar to Nightmare Alley, as in a film that is technically incredible, technically extremely well done and a film that will be embraced by the Academy on a technical level. But you know that that's sort of the end game of that project. You know, I just not seeing a lot of acting contenders coming out of it. I'm not seeing the you know, pressure to nominate Guillermo del Toro again for Best Director, and so in a way, it would be a nomination if it were a movie to make it into Best Picture. It would be a nomination for Best Picture and text Like Nightmare Alley Exactly, and that to me looks too similar to night morality, which happened not that long ago. Um, so that gives me a lot of pause. I think that's a. I think that's a great point.
Speaker 1:I think when we think about the frankenstein property, we don't immediately think the performances. Um, that said, you do have the way overdue oscar isaac in it. Oh, way overdue, whose accent on the trailer I think I did not enjoy. So I do wonder about that, Right, and I think it's also important to note that Guillermo has already won the big one, so I'm not sure if he can win the big one again, unlike some of these other people that we're talking about, like Yorgos Lanthimos, who's yet to win the big Exactly, but I think it's like, yeah, I think it's interesting that, like Bigelow, guillermo hasn't been here for a while Bigelow, more than a while, really.
Speaker 1:But the idea that you have Noah Baumbach on his third, it's important to note that, like that first big breakthrough for Guillermo had that acting element. Yeah, and I think that's pretty important. It wasn't just one performance, it was a bunch of performances that were in for that. Yeah, so that's sort of the Achilles heel for this movie. Yeah, again, I think the trailer is absolutely beautiful, yeah, gorgeous, and I'm sure people are going to go crazy for Jacob Elordi there, and I would actually argue that he's the one to watch because, based on Priscilla, I think he has a lot of potential and I think the industry is eager to sort of have him nominated for something, some kind of Golden Globe or something I did not like necessarily.
Speaker 1:I mean, I liked it. I just don't think it's going to play to the Academy to have that sort of voice effect on him as that I heard in the trailer. Right, um, for for for Jacob, for Jacob, for Jacob. Um, he is very good and I thought he was very good, but also he's been making these sort of independent movies and he was on that, that mini series from Chris. For me it would just seem like, if he's given enough meat, oscar isaac is certainly an actor that I think many actors want to nominate already. Uh, for his first oscar nomination, that's very, very, very overdue. Yeah, yeah, but is this it? I'm just not sure. Yeah, that's exactly how. That's exactly how I feel right now. Um, I think the next title to go to is the 824 title.
Speaker 1:Uh, speaking of priscilla, um, the 824 title being the smashing machine, right, right, and so there's been a lot of anticipation for this movie, because you know it's so Oscar-baity for Dwayne Johnson. Right, the trailer came out a while ago. Right, we're getting also dual films from the Safdie brothers who are splitting up for the first time. Yeah, and there was. I thought at one point that this film was going to Cannes. That's how early the footage came out and the first photographs came out, right. But it did not go to Cannes, it waited till Venice. And I've always debated whether you can do a festival with the two Safdie brothers at the same time, and I was right. You cannot, right. So there's only one Safdie in this festival and the other Safdie is going to wait till December.
Speaker 1:But some interesting things about this project right, it's based on a real-life figure and we've already talked about how that's an advantage when it comes to acting nominations from the Venice competition lineup. It's an advantage full stop for acting nominations. You know, that's sort of catnip for actors who vote for other actors, but also, as you said, for this statistic of in competition. Yeah, that, exactly that tends to matter. You got your veteran there because emily blunt was nominated.
Speaker 1:Finally, for oppenheimer, I'm playing another real life person. Uh, she's got a category shift. She might have a category. She might have a category shift. That's going to be interesting to see. Right, like emma stone for begonia, is she really lead um, or is she supporting? Or is she supporting or are they going to insist that, whatever screen time she has, we're going to push her and lead. Yeah, and of course, we have the sort of storied venice controversial in my opinion this opinion of uh, I'm sorry, this sort of take on that happens in venice, which is the transformative performance that makes me look at someone in a different way. And so this was, this happened when Mickey Rourke was in the Wrestler and that won the big award. And you had Brendan Fraser in the Whale, didn't win anything, didn't win anything, but you know it. Just the narrative takes off that this actor has just transformed himself to such a degree that I have to nominate him or he has to win. Right, and I will say I think it's interesting.
Speaker 1:One thing I want to bring up is, in a way, you know, is Emily Blunt going to be supporting or lead? It would make sense for Emily Blunt, I believe, to push for a lead campaign because she's already done a supporting campaign. So if I were her, I can easily imagine saying well, you know what we've already done, you know the supporting part, let's try to push for lead. And Emma Stone the opposite, sort of like I just won for lead, you know, I'm okay going down to supporting. So that's interesting that I'm thinking about.
Speaker 1:But I'll also say as to what you were saying right now about the Rock. You know everything you're saying, I believe, also is true, but I think something that goes against Dwayne Johnson and we'll be talking about this as the year goes on is that he's playing a real life figure. That's a, that's a plus, that's a pro, but it's still within his comfort zone because it's still in the fighting world. You know, it's still a wrestler, um, ufc fighter, rather, I should say Um, but it's still not so far removed from his familiar sort of thing. So, and I think that actors, his persona right, exactly so thing, yeah, so and I think that actors, his persona Right, exactly, so I don't, I think that actors are going to take that into account, possibly, even if the performance is very strong. That's something that I think he's going to have to contend with throughout the award season. You know, how much of a stretch is it really for Dwayne Johnson Right, and how eager is the Academy to just have him be? Because, let's face it, that would help ratings. That would be an excellent coup for your ratings.
Speaker 1:Another thing I want to mention here is you know, and also about Dwayne Johnson, also not unlike Brendan Fraser, who ends up getting his first nomination and win with not necessarily the best filmography. You have that going with. That's something that Dwayne Johnson has to contend with as well. You know very spotty filmography. Is the Academy ready to just embrace him right off the bat into a lead performance? Technically, the performances that do end up doing that kind of thing are transformative ones. So that's going for him. But again, this wrestling, this fighting aspect to the performance is something that I am weary about.
Speaker 1:I also think it's interesting that, again, at one point I thought this was going to can and at one point I would have thought, well, maybe that's kind of, you know, a no-brainer, because dwayne johnson has walked that carpet for southland tales which bombed there. But, um, I think it's interesting that a24 opted for venice. I think if you're in the, if you're aware of how the industry works, you have to know that at this point a24 and neon are just at each other's neck over. Who has, you know, should I say, a stronger dominance on their little, on their smaller niche market? Right, and um, why I bring this up is because I did want to bring up the idea of. I don't think A24 had the can that they wanted when Eddington bows in competition.
Speaker 1:I think they had great titles elsewhere. Like you were a big fan of Pillion, for example. Oh yes, that's so good, but let's face it, that wasn't their main objective. Their main objective was to be there for Ari Aster and to convert that into millions of dollars at the box office and probably an awards campaign and some kind of awards campaign for somebody, right, and just nothing happened. None of that happened, no, no. And so you got to think that they want to have a better Venice, but want to have a better Venice. But looking at their history, their Venice isn't always that great. I'm looking at their slate from other years and you have the Whale, which was able to win, which is fantastic, right. But then you have Priscilla, which is a wonderful film and did really well at Venice, but it couldn't really make a dent. You had Baby Girl, another great film that won an award at Venice.
Speaker 1:I think that's their first'm sorry, no, that's two years in a row. Best actress oh, yeah, that's true. Yeah, kaylee and nicole, yeah, still cannot get one of your actresses in for an oscar. And uh. Then you had that same year. You had queer and you were finally going to get this actor, who's so overdue and and we assume is possibly you know, the academy knows that and he's taking on this role that's so different and challenging and provoking, um, in a, in a, in a very, uh, confrontational film from william s burroughs, based on william s burroughs work, um, and they can't make that work either to such a degree where they end up buying a movie that year.
Speaker 1:Uh, the brutalist right, and we had thought, like, when we heard that the brutalist was in fact not going to have Focus Features roll out the movie in the US like it had in other international places, we kind of thought, well, it kind of makes sense for A24 to buy because Sing Sing did not take off over the summer, and so you want to sort of shore up your chances. Maybe this is the best spot to buy something. Want to sort of shore up your chances. Maybe this is the best spot to buy something, um, but I just bring that up with the idea that smashing machine, if it goes the way of these other films, it may not be the slam dunk that they wanted, and so then that's sort of a lackluster performance at can and venice. Yeah, and you know it's not good.
Speaker 1:Something that I think is interesting about, um, the smashing machine is that it's not going to Telluride, which I find quite interesting. I know they took the Safdie brothers, they took Uncut Gems to Telluride and, I think, had kind of a polarizing reaction. It got unanimous praise from critics, but I think people weren't so crazy. So maybe A24 wants to sort of opt out of Telluride for the Safdies from here on out, wants to sort of opt out of Telluride for the Safdies from here on out. But still, if it were, I'm just tempted to think that if Telluride thought it was one of the best best films of the year, it would be in that lineup. It's also not going to NYFF not either. It's not going to NYFF, not even in a side section, like out of you know, on the side section. So those things give me pause. Also, we had talked about this before, but the safdies have gone to venice before. Right, they were there with heaven knows what. Yes, and the horizon section in 2015. Yes, that film was selected for the main slate of new york, yeah, and so there is a little bit of suspicion here, whereas since we're not seeing it all over the place, that maybe the quality isn't there.
Speaker 1:Um, I also think this is one of those titles where, as soon as the Smashing Machine has good enough critics and enough juice to campaign on the transformation of Dwayne Johnson, if this movie makes $50 million, that's really all I need to do. That's the other thing I was going to say. I think that's something that's also going for the movie in that, as we saw with the Iron Claw, which did pretty well from A24 as well, you know, I think there's an audience for this type of movie. The Rock certainly carries an audience with him and his box office successes, you know, can prove that. So I think this film stands to make A24 some money and that's going to help. That could be tempting for voters, right? That may be the difference between them being able to land nominations or not.
Speaker 1:We've also talked about that weird thing where, like Dwayne Johnson has an uber competitive best actor race and Emily Blunt can almost walk to a nomination. Especially if Emily Blunt had been snubbed for Oppenheimer, she would certainly be nominated for this film, but that's not the case. So I'm curious to see how this is going to pan out. Right now, my gut says it's going to be more middle of the road. Yeah, I have a feeling like that too, you know, good, not great, right, but again, there's so many other factors that it has going for it that that might be good enough, right?
Speaker 1:I think now is a good time for me to jump to a movie from Jim Jarmusch and we can talk about it briefly, because Jim Jarmusch just is not the ostrich cup of tea, because he's too Jim Jarmusch, thank God for that. So he's got father, father, mother, sister, brother, some speculation about this movie, because I think people were anticipating it for Cannes. It didn't make Cannes and this is a pattern that we'll continue to see. Right, there were rumors that Cannes rejected it. They didn't like it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I think, at one point I think I read the story that Vicky Krebs was asked about it. Yeah, and you know, I think she said something like you know. So, which is true, which is true, it is true. But he's always not made movies for ken and ken has always been happy to show them. Right, right, um, so I do think that you know something smells off there, um, but it's jim's, I believe.
Speaker 1:First time in venice since coffee and cigarettes with k planchette. Wow, it's gonna be gonna be great to see k planchette in that. Um, I bring this. I bring this up because we talk about competitors and a24 and neon, but we should talk about movie because, um, this is one of the few movies. This is one of the few movies that movie will have at venice and specifically in competition, and so movie is going to be releasing this film later on. Um, k blanchett's in it, um, I think it's going to be great to have Tom Waits and Charlotte Rampling in the same movie. I have my drivers in it, vicky Creeps, and so the cast is great, and I wouldn't be surprised that critics really like this movie.
Speaker 1:I just really wonder if it could ever have any sort of traction at the Academy. But what is MUBI going to campaign? Exactly Because all they've got is again a lackluster can when they have Lynn Ramsey's wonderful film, but again it's so difficult for Lynn Ramsey to get any nomination for the Oscars. Like I said in our last episode, that's going to be a very polarizing movie for sure. Exactly so are we going to see movies sort of, you know, miss out this year because they spent so much of their resources trying to just break through last year yeah, so much of their resources trying to just break through last year. Yeah, that will probably have them sort of say, okay, I'm gonna, I'm gonna, I'm gonna set out this round and, you know, build up for next year.
Speaker 1:Um, I think that could be a factor, um, but anyway, I mean, I do think that critics are going to, like I said, they're gonna eat at the possibility of seeing tom waits and charlotte rampling play what I think parents or like it's a trip tech movie. So I think that, oh, really, yeah, so I think one chapter is father, second chapter is mother, third chapter is sister, brother. But are they related? Like were they lovers? No, no, no, also completely different. Yeah, I think they're all different, and I think that Vicky Krips, cate Blanchett and Charlotte Rampling are in the same one.
Speaker 1:Oh, okay, oh, that's really interesting, okay, well, I love every Jim Jarmusch film, so I really hope this does well and I hope I can see it soon. Yeah, along those lines, we'll talk about another movie that I think stands to be like the Jim Jarmusch film Not necessarily the Academy's cup of tea just based on the filmmaker, and that's olivia si is much anticipated wizard of the kremlin. We love. Olivia si is here. The guy can do no wrong. He's an amazing filmmaker. We got to meet him once. Well, he did some wrong in venice a few years ago, right, well, I mean just personally, I know, you know, I agree with you. We got to meet him at the new york film festival a while back, for when he was there for Personal Shopper, and he's just such an incredible filmmaker. But so, outside of their you know, cup of tea, I expect this to be a very Olivia Sia's movie.
Speaker 1:It sounds fascinating. The subject is absolutely fascinating. Sounds like an incredible role for Paul Dano A very, very, you know, attention-grabbing role for Jude Dano. Um, a very, very, uh, you know, a tension grabbing role for Jude Law playing Vladimir Putin. Um and uh, again, you have that real life factor. And you know there's a timeliness to all of this, unfortunately and sadly, which might not turn off all all Oscar voters, right, because sort of revisiting the territory of the Apprentice last year, or the opposite. Things are so bleak here in the political landscape and Trump and Putin and all that crap, that might just not be the right moment, I don't know, but I can't deny that it sounds like a fascinating story.
Speaker 1:I'm very curious to see what the reception will be. I will say that, based on what we were talking about prior to this episode is that you know, olivia Size doesn't do great with Venice. He does better with Cannes. Yeah, and I think he sort of has unfortunately lost a little bit of favor with Cannes recently. But I think you know Venice is where he unspooled Wasp Network and that was just not a good moment for him. Yeah, and again, based on real life figures too. Yeah, so there's a lot of reason to be suspicious about how this is going to turn out. It is going to, interestingly enough, it is going to TIFF, but it's not going to NYFF, I believe. And New York and New York loves Olivia Sines. They really do. So there is something there that you know reads a little bit off to me, but nonetheless, we had talked about that pattern of real people.
Speaker 1:Jude Law and Paul Dano both fit that bill. Jude Law has been doing amazing work. He's one of our finest actors. He was there last year for the Order. He was great in that. He was great in the Order, and so I think that you know, if the film stands out, I think it would be great to see both of those actors get Oscar attention. I just think that an Olivia Size vehicle isn't the right one to get them there Right, and I think the speaking of the Wizard of the Kremlin, I think the best movie to jump to now is the testament of ann lee.
Speaker 1:Yes, and you see that that is a film that I'm especially watching, I'm very worried about, in a good way, I think that you know mona fastwald, the director, you know, had a moment with the brutalist. She was a producer on the brutalist, she was a co-writer on the Brutalist, first nomination Nominated last year. So a part of me wonders, you know the way, as we've talked about in previous episodes, you know, there's patterns that just stick and so once they've had, you know, once they've sort of indulged in a filmmaker, they tend to give it a little bit of a break before they jump on board to indulge them again. Possibly, you know, with awards attention, there are some filmmakers who are the exception and so part of me thinks, you know, they just did Mona Fastball last year with the Brutalists, even though it was Brady Corbett's directorial achievement. Are they going to do mona fastball again so soon? This seems unlikely to me.
Speaker 1:However, this is a very interesting film, um unique, a very unique film, tackling, you know, the religious founder, the shakers movement, right, uh, amanda safe read, who is a past nominee in 2020 for manc um, has, I think, a great role here. It seems it a musical. It's sort of kind of like a musical, you know, and there's a weird wavelength here because you know it's a musical. But also, I think the musicality of the piece is going to tie in with the way the Shakers, you know, worshipped, you know, with that kind of dancing and expressive gestures and movements. I think that's going to be tied into the whole musical aspect of it all.
Speaker 1:Um, and you know, I don't know, I I think this film stands to do well, um, and it doesn't have a buyer right now. It would certainly need to get a distributor and, you know, any film that's going to be that's going to get get distribution so late into the year really needs to ramp things up in order to have everything prepared for an Oscar campaign. It's not easy to buy the Brutalist and then roll out a huge Oscar campaign. That's why a lot of studios go into these fall festivals already having their pony the movie that they're pushing, the movie that they're pushing. But if someone were to buy it and release it for an Oscar play and it does well with critics.
Speaker 1:Amanda Seyfried would be an excellent candidate to be in the Best Actress race. It is very empty. We need a veteran in that lineup and right now, the best we've got right now is a possible fourth nomination for Cynthia Erivo, for Wicked, who was just there last year. Emma Stone just won. Emma Stone just won Emily Blunt is she supporting, is she lead? It's not her movie. She was also just nominated too. She was just nominated, but it's also more of the Rock's movie possibly. J-law is like a very off movie for them. Yeah, the film is going to be extremely polarizing. So we need a veteran here and Amanda Seyfried fits the bill. Fits the bill. And on top of that, you know and we've talked about this in previous episodes we need and we should have on this lineup a real life figure. Right and right now we don't have anybody. So have anybody. So Amanda Seyfried, in a way, kind of ticks both of those boxes. She ticks the box of the vet and she ticks the box of a real life figure.
Speaker 1:I think what's fascinating to me about the Ann Lee film is that it's so interesting that they're sort of playing the Brutalist playbook step by step Venice no distributor. We're going to make a deal after the festival. We shot in 70 millimeter. Brady is essentially supporting Mona this time, after the roles were opposite for the Brutalist. In a kind of weird way, they're just coming off this year, where there was this huge musical that took Cannes by storm, which was Amelia Perez. The Oscar winning musician is back on this, daniel Daniel Blumberg, I believe, is his name, and so I just find it fascinating that they're playing what seems to me like the exact same strategy that really worked out for the brutalist. So imagine if it does take off, I think. I think that that's such a wonderful headline.
Speaker 1:Um, I'm really watching that movie, uh, with eager anticipation to see what happens. Um, and, like I said, it is following this, as you were saying. It is following the same playbook as the buddhalist. Um, in a way, I remember brady talking about how they went into venice, knowing that, trusting the work they'd done, trusting the achievement they'd made, and knowing that aren't just having faith that that once they played it on 70 millimeter in a huge venue like venice, it would really speak to people what they were trying to accomplish with that film, and it did um, and so in a way it's, you know, I see the same as you were saying, the same pattern here with mona in a 70 millimeter. Let's put it out in venice and let's prove people wrong and see why this is a major film, a major event, right? Um, can they do that twice in a row after the brutalist? I think that's the thing that gives me a lot of pause, right? No, I agree with everything you're saying and I want to jump at this point because I think it's the best time to do it.
Speaker 1:I want to jump to the topic of buyers and sellers at Venice. There are more titles in competition that I think we need to take a look at, but they're not necessarily the most typical thing you see, historically speaking, in terms of, you know, foreign language films. For example, um, you mean winning venice, winning the golden line. No, I'm saying launching from a venice debut into a nomination for best picture. So, for example, like I said when I'm still here, does it not very many foreign films do it? Um, certainly, a foreign film, like parallel mothers, is able to get a nomination for a performance, but when, when I'm Still here, is able to go from Venice competition into a best picture nomination. That does not happen very often. I think Roma is another one, but I think that the pedigree for Roma was so much more immense than that of I'm Still here, and so it definitely can happen.
Speaker 1:But I think, after you know, highlighting a lot of the English language films, we've touched upon a topic that I think is really important and something that we should all be looking out for, and that's the idea again of buyers and sellers, and so the Brutalist sort of stole the festival last year, and it was able to get a deal from A24, and A24 was able to sort of, you know, to the detriment of Sing Sing unroll that campaign with tremendous success, winning a bunch of Oscars and getting a nomination for Best Picture, and so certainly one of the most high profile films for sale is going to be the Testament of Anne Lee, another one is probably going to be the Wizard of the Kremlin, right, and so I think my first question would be what are some studios or distributors that are buying, because their slate is possibly a little bit hollow on Thinks the Campaign? It just brought this idea to me that, you know, when you have those two films, but especially Ann Lee and 70mm, when you have that playing. Could we see a move from Searchlight to buy the film? Right Right now the best they've got is Rental Family, which is going to TIFF, and they also have Bradley Cooper's film going to New York, but it's just again odd for Searchlight not to be at Venice. And so when you look at the fact that they're going to be, you know, trying to push Rental Family and Bradley Cooper's film, which aren't going to a bunch of places at the same time, I do wonder if they're going to feel like we could use another film to campaign. I mean, I'm not sure they have the strongest actress campaign right now and if you look below the line their film to campaign, I mean, I'm not sure they have the strongest actress campaign right now and if you look below the line their their campaign is not very good either.
Speaker 1:I think I think the reason that I don't love searchlight for it and I think this is an issue that you know uh, this film is going to have to court that I uh the I'm talking about the testament of anne lee that the buddhalist was able possibly to court better, and it's that. How much of an audience is there for a musical about the Shakers founder. You know, I'm just not sure. To me it doesn't sound like something that's destined to make a lot of money and that's okay. We don't care about that. But unfortunately the industry cares and the Brutalists was able to mount a huge financial success. I think remember the film was made for, I think like $10 million or something like that, which is just astounding and mount a big success out of this epic story about this architect.
Speaker 1:That campaign really worked. But can you really spin this kind of movie into that kind of success? I'm not sure. Yeah, no, I'm not sure. So I think that that would be something that gives a lot of buyers pause. Yeah, it could be, and then the other studio correct me if I'm wrong. That is possibly a little bit light on things. To campaign, unless they launch some surprising campaigns by the end of the year, is maybe Sony Picture Classics right, they don't have a very big slate, but again, like movie, they just spent so much effort getting I'm still here into best picture that maybe they're also going to say I think I need to sit this round out maybe movie movies, maybe not a bad one, you're, maybe Mubi, because it's sort of like if the best we've got is a polarizing film like Die my Love, which isn't going to any festivals right now, even though I have a suspicion that it will go to Telluride and more specialized stuff like the Mastermind Jim Jarmusch's film, right. I do wonder if they think, well, you know what. We might as well hedge our bets and if we can't get in Jennifer Lawrence, her best actress, we can get in Amanda Seyfried. I could totally see that.
Speaker 1:And then you always have to bring up the idea of the two companies that maybe worked with both those filmmakers before. You have A24, who jumped on board, but you know they have Marty Supreme in the back burner and you have to imagine that they're all going to be on the hook for the smashing machine to a certain degree, but other than that they don't have too much. So, for example, if Emily Blunt shifts down to supporting, they do have a spot open to campaign for actress. If Amanda Seyfried is a standout, I think they've got too much on their plate, absolutely. I mean, I think that their priority is Marty Supreme, right. And then you know, mona, actually her last film was handled by Bleecker.
Speaker 1:I was thinking about Bleecker, and Bleecker, I don't think, has anything this year, but again, I think that they spent a lot of their effort trying to make the Mike Lee film happen last year and it didn't happen, unfortunately. Wonderful film, it just didn't work out. But so I do wonder who is going to end up stepping up to the plate to buy these films. Or are they going to sit there because no one has the resources to buy them? Um, for example, I don't think neon can buy anything. Neon bought everything out of can. I don't know how neon could squeeze one more dollar out of anywhere. Um, well, I mean they might, but that won't happen. I don't know how they could possibly do it.
Speaker 1:And so, while we're on this topic, I think why don't we drop the name of a few other films that could potentially break out, maybe, and that are going to be available? And so, like, on the out of competition section, you're going to have Gus Van Sant make a comeback with Dead Man's Wire, which I believe is also going to TIFF. Yes, it is going to TIFF, based on a real story. Isn't it going to NYFF as well? No, it is not. As far as I know, it is not. It's going to TIFF, which is more popular. It's interesting, based on a real-life historical event, it, funnily enough, has another Skarsgård in it in the lead role. Al Pacino's in there somewhere, colman Domingo's in there somewhere. No one's bought it.
Speaker 1:I think there had been talk about how this project was at one point at Warner Brothers with one of the Hughes brothers. It was on the blacklist ages ago, I think. So it'll be interesting to see if this project takes off. There's some interesting footage, if anyone wants to YouTube it, on the individual on which the film is based, and you can find that on YouTube.
Speaker 1:Another film from a director who hasn't been here for a while is Julian Schnabel in the Hand of Dante, and that's again. They've been making that film for years and, speaking of Oscar Isaac, he's in that film, but it's not surprising that it's going to be out of competition. That seems like a title that would have played in competition, and also surprising that it won't be going to NYFF. And they love Julian Schnabel, exactly I surprising that it won't be going to nyff? Exactly exactly, um, I do. I did hear that he got into like a some kind of issue with his financiers because he promised that it wasn't going to be more than two hours. It is. He promised it wasn't going to be in black and white. It is in part, and so maybe that's where the issues come from.
Speaker 1:I think it's interesting because this cast includes jason jason momoa, gal gadot and oscar isaac and mart Martin Scorsese and Al Pacino, I think, and so I mean the project sounds fascinating to me. It sounds fascinating. I love Julian Schnabel, but a part of me is smelling a little bit of Megalopolis here Could be. There's actually a documentary on Megalopolis going to the festival too, by Mike Figgis, which could be fun. So a few more titles.
Speaker 1:Rose of Nevada is the new film from Mark Jenkins, who is known for Annie's Men, collaborated with Neon on that film. Has Callum Turner in it, has George McKay, so it does have headliners on it that you can easily sort of distribute your film around Going to New York, which was cool. That looks like it's going to be an interesting movie, it's going to be really cool. It's going to play on a side section. We'll see if anyone picks that up. I think that someone will pick that up for sure, because that's going to New York as well. And you have Motor City right, which is from the director of Old Henry, which went to Venice, and you have pretty marquee names on this. You have Ben Foster, who is amazing, shane Woodley, alan Richeson's in this.
Speaker 1:I think what's fascinating here is that this film is coming from Black Bear, and a few weeks ago, I think, black Bear announced that they're going to start distributing their own movies and distributing movies. So, for example, at South by Southwest, you had the Matthew McConaughey film the rivals of Amzia King, yeah, and so no one picked that up. And so Black Bear said we'll do it ourselves, and so it'll be interesting to see. Are they looking for a buyer here or are they just, you know, waiting to announce we're going to sort of sell it ourselves? So that'll be interesting to see.
Speaker 1:And then I think the last one that I think really called my attention was Late Fame, yeah, which is also going to New York, yes, Features the amazing Willem Dafoe, yeah, who is essentially in every movie this year. Great Elise in that, yes, second film From Ken Jones. Second film, or third film, I think it's Benicio Del Toro, yeah, we love Kent Jones' first film. Diane. Diane was amazing, it was fucking incredible. Mary Kay Place won a bunch of critical awards for that.
Speaker 1:No buyer on this yet, and I think Killer Films is involved with the production here. Sammy Birch wrote the screenplay. Sammy Birch from May to December. Who got nominated for May to December? Right, great writer, absolutely right, great writer, absolutely. And so this is certainly one project that I would keep an eye on for someone like a sony picture classics to really consider picking up, because they don't really have anyone to campaign for actor, um, or supporting actress, maybe, um. So I would definitely keep an eye on this one.
Speaker 1:This is playing on horizons, um, and I do think that, on the negative side, horizons hasn't had traditionally a great reputation for crossing over to the Oscars. That said, a movie like September 5 played on Horizons opening night and obviously was a big deal. It was pretty close, it was really close and got nominations, and so I think maybe that's a trend that we're going to see. I think it's great that it got selected for New York too, so I do expect someone to pick this up. A lot of the people we mentioned could end up being the buyer. Fox Searchlight could even end up buying it, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there.
Speaker 1:Okay, so, going back to the main competition lineup, I think the next thing to do is talk about some of these foreign language films lineup. Um, I think the next thing to do is talk about some of these foreign language films, um, international films that are on here, um, and I think I want to start with, um what I think is the most high profile one, right, um, it's been on the news lately because there's been some trouble with the writers guild war, the writers guild association. That's no other choice. Yeah, from park john wook um, park john wook, like jim jarmusch, is more of a can guy um, and so I don't think he's been in at venice since. Uh, sympathy for lady vengeance. Um, lady vengeance, the film, um, so doesn't go to venice very often.
Speaker 1:Again, there's just that rumor that this was a movie that can passed on, and venice is sort of getting this reputation of you know picking up the leftovers now, and so, um, this movie's going to come out. Have a trailer, I think looks great. Um, the controversy, of course, is that um park jean-puk and his co-writer, don mckellar, I believe, a canadian, canadian writer, filmmaker, um, were working on uh scripts for their show the sympathizer for hbo while the strike was going on, and um, I think they've started making statements about how you know it's, it's it, it's not as bad as it sounds um, but um. Anyway, really interesting thing about this movie is that it's actually based on a donald westlake a good uh noir crime, uh uh novelist novel it's called the Axe and that it's already been made by Costa Gavras, who made Z in 1969 a wonderful filmmaker hasn't really gone to the Academy for a while, but this was back in 2015, I think. He made a version of this film, and so this film, like the other South Korean property, has had a couple of iterations now, so that'll be interesting to see. Um again, this is another south korean um film that has that identity that I do wonder, if you know we're in this place in the industry that's growing with a growing, a more international appetite, if we're going to be eager to have that. And again, if you look at the story, I think it's universal, um, I think it has, you know, this uh subtext that a lot of people are going to be uh able to relate to economic woes, so to speak.
Speaker 1:I think the actor has also done some work in Hollywood. Oh, really, I think he was in the GI Joe franchise, for example, where he had a role there. I would look for Lee Byung-hun to have possibly a breakout role in this film, and so the problem with no Other Choice, in my opinion I don't know if you agree is that it is a neon film and neon is just way too busy to really campaign it. And the other thing is that Park Chan-wook has sort of proved to just not be the academy's taste right, but I would watch out for this film. I think that certainly there's potential here. Yeah, there's potential. And again, roma and I'm still here, able to get the best picture, parallel mothers and I'm still here able to get performance. But the odds are not in their favor and the headlines right now are not necessarily in their favor, but I think the film looks extremely timely.
Speaker 1:Yeah and um, jeff, jeff franco, jen franco, rosie has a documentary out. We love jen franco. Yeah and um, I actually think interesting note about that is that daniel blumberg is doing the music. Oh, interesting. Yeah, um, and he was shortlisted. He's already been nominated, uh right for fire at sea and documentary. His last film, not torno shortlisted for foreign film and documentary, um, and then, for example, another uh, foreign film we should probably talk about. I can't wait for francois ozan's film, the Stranger Right. That looks really cool. He's had a tough time getting into the Oscars, though. Right, yeah, but I love Francois Lauzon. Yeah.
Speaker 1:I think someone else to talk about is Laszlo Nimes. Laszlo Nimes yeah, he's got a new film with Orphan. Yes, right, his last film that went to Venice did not do great, which was Sunset. I was not a fan of that film at all. I enjoyed it but I think that he Can might be a little bit better for him. And again, there's just that idea that they can pass on this film. I think it could be a good contender for Hungary of Hungary's submission. Then again, you have the filmmaker Ild El Dico and Yeti. She's directing Silent Friend and she was previously nominated for On Body and Soul in 2017. That could end up being Hungary's choice for the Oscar. Again.
Speaker 1:This is another title that technically was sort of pitched at the Cannes market, so you would have thought that this would have been in the official lineup, but it was not. Opening night is going to have Paolo Sorrentino for La Grazia. That's a film from mooby um, and it's again really interesting because I think paulo, despite being italian, has had a preference to show his films at can, and so usually what happens is that paulo runs to some kind of trouble at can and then goes back to venice right and then has a good resurgence at venice and then is able to go to can again. Um, he, he's coming off Parthenope, which had issues, but his last film at Venice was actually the Hand of God, which was able to get him another nomination for foreign language film. I think, for example, the Tunisian filmmaker, kator Benhania, has had success at the Oscars recently and so she had the man who Sold His Skin nominated for Foreign Language Film and Four Daughters and Four Daughters exactly Nominated for Documentary Films Submitted for Foreign Language Film that year and it made the shortlist. So look out for her film, the Voice of Hin Rajab, which is actually going to address, I think, a real story that took place in everything that's going on in Gaza, and so that could certainly be attention grabbing to voters and to press and to viewers. So watch out for that film that's in competition.
Speaker 1:Pietro Marcello has a new film, deuce. His last film, warden Eden, did really well. Beautiful film. I think this is a dark horse contender for best actress. Oh, valeria. Valeria Bruni, yes, could happen well, um, beautiful film. I think this is a dark horse contender for best actress. Oh, valeria. Valeria bruni, yes, uh, could happen. Um, actually, I think based on a real person too, so that should be interesting. Um, the problem with pietro is technically, for some reason, whenever he's at venice, he ends up losing the submission from italy because palo sorrentino is always there, and so that's unfortunate for him. Um, another film for example to talk about is um kaya malaga. That's unfortunate for him. Another film, for example, to talk about is Kaya Malaga.
Speaker 1:That's a film I thought would have gone to Cannes, and from the Moroccan filmmaker, mariam Touzani. Again, I thought it would have gone to Cannes because Touzani's previous films, the Blue Captain and Adam, went to Cannes, and Blue Captain had a lot of fans, I think, in the Answer and Regard section, and both those films were the submission from Morocco, and this film is partly funded by Morocco Filmmakers Moroccan so it could end up being their choice. That said, the star is the Carmen Moura, who is just amazing, and to see her headlining a film is just going to be an absolute treat. If we're talking about foreign films, I think it's interesting to note that I think the only debut film that is going to be in competition is actually a film from Xu Qi I believe is the way you pronounce her name and most people are going to know her from the Assassin and just an actor who regularly works with Hao Shao-shin, and so I think it's interesting that she got invited to competition. So I'm anxious to see how that debut turns out. She's amazing in the Assassin.
Speaker 1:On the documentary front, we have some interesting titles. We're going to have, for example, mark by Sophia, from Sofia Coppola by Marc Jacobs. That could be a visually interesting film. Werner Herzog, who's winning some kind of, I think, a Lifetime Achievement Award, has a documentary, ghost Elephants, and that's probably going to play for sure in Telluride. Oh, interesting, he says it's not, you know, any type of sort of natural documentary. I think there's some black and white footage into it. It's a fascinating premise. You guys want to read about it. I can't wait for this film. It's absolutely fascinating, and Wer Farzog is one of the greats, so I can't wait for that.
Speaker 1:Ross McElwee, the American documentarian, is showing a new documentary called Remake, which is actually, I think, about the death of his son, and it's going to, I think, use sort of home video footage. That could be a really interesting project. And then you have a film by Alexandre Ophelipe, 7852. That film was about the infamous shower scene in Psycho. His new film is actually about Kim Novak. I think it's called Kim Novak's Vertigo and I think it's about her experience on that film. Kim Novak, I think, is receiving some kind of award, a Lifetime Achievement Award, from Venice as well, and then I think the more notable sort of maybe films that could potentially break into the Oscar race could include, for example, cover Up from Laura Poitras, who last time she was in Venice won the Golden Line for All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
Speaker 1:This is out of competition. It will be playing in New York as well. It's also going to Telluride, most likely. Yeah, so maybe Telluride definitely going to uh. So maybe, tell you right, definitely going to new york. I think it's interesting that it's out of competition. Um plan b is on the production here. Um, which is good. Um, cover up, I think. Um, it's going to be a, a portrait on um, this writer who uh discussed and wrote about um, I think, the practice of, of torture from the american military, so that should be interesting.
Speaker 1:Asima herschel is, I believe, his name Distribution up for grabs. Her previous film was released by Neon, so I do wonder if Neon is going to take the bait and try to release this. Lucretia Martel has a documentary on Javier Chocobar called Landmarks, and I think people have been waiting for this one for a while. Can't wait for that to be that film about Chocobar, who was, I think, assassinated on video trying to fight for indigenous land rights this was in Argentina. No distribution on this yet either. Could potentially be a choice for Argentina to send for international film, also playing New York film festival, and also might play a telly ride, I think. Oh, there you go. And Lucretia Martel has been a jury president before. Yes, this is not in competition.
Speaker 1:However, you have the Tale of Cillian, which is from the director Tamara Kotevska from North Macedonia, who had a tremendous amount of success with Honeyland a few years ago, getting into both documentary and international film. That was again released by neon. Um, part of the production here is coming from concordia, um, which helped make the documentary summer of soul time. Michael j fox's documentary, still um. Davis guggenheim behind that company of of an inconvenient truth fame um. So watch for those movies to pop. And then, personally, I can't wait for broken english um from jane billard and ian forsyth. Um, they're the wonderful filmmakers from the Nick Cave documentary 20,000 Days on Earth, yeah, and that's going to have Tilda Swinton and George McKay. Yeah, and Nick Cave and Courtney Love, and it's going to be about the English singer, marianne Faithfull, and it's called Broken English, after her album called Broken English. That sounds great.
Speaker 1:And then another title that I really wanted to point out was a film playing out of competition um called scarlet uh, from mamoru hosada and um. His film, mirai, was able to get a nomination in 2018 for animated feature um, and then he released bell in the can premiere section in 2021. A lot of people thought that would get in. G kids handled their release on bell and it fell short of a nomination. Um. They were able to get Mariah in after a director's Fortnite premiere in Cannes in 2018. So I'm curious to see what happens. I think what's fascinating here is that Scarlett is going to play New York Film Festival, which is a great get. Mirai did not. I actually don't even think Bell played New York. The other thing is that Sony will be releasing this film, and so I think that it may have some crossover success with US audiences. So I really look forward to seeing what the reception is, and I definitely think that's a title to watch in the animated feature race, yeah, and I think we all anticipate what's going to happen with venice.
Speaker 1:I think one movie that we have to talk about, we haven't talked about yet, um, is luca guadagnino's. After the hunt, I left it for last, right, I left it, which you know. Luca guadagnino is no stranger to venice. Um, he won the director prize, I, I believe, for Bones and All. He's a favorite there. Challengers was supposed to premiere there, but then they moved it, the studio moved it, so then they took it out of the Venice premiere. Amazon MGM was a studio on that as well. Yes, queer went there last year and this year he's going, but out of competition.
Speaker 1:And so for me, for me and you, joseph, I feel like it's a little bit of a red flag. It's attention calling at least. Yeah, I don't know why they would put Luca Guadagnino, a Luca Guadagnino film, outside of competition, unless the film is just not as good as the other Luca Guadagnino films Suspiria forgot to mention that one. A bigger splash, a bigger splash. Yeah, exactly so. He's a perennial favorite here. To be out of competition is very strange. The last time I think he was out of competition was for I Am Love on a parallel section, right, I think. I'm not even sure. I think that might have been in competition too. No, it was Bela, and so it's very strange for him to be out of competition.
Speaker 1:The film is going to have its North American premiere at NYFF, so that's interesting, but it won't be going to Telluride. So I don't know, I smell some red flags here that possibly the movie is just not as good as Luca Guad guaranino's past films. Maybe it's going to be one of his weaker films. Um, I personally wasn't crazy about the trailer that I saw, and we can reveal that actually, joseph has read an early draft of the script. I have been exposed to an early draft of the scripts. It was an interesting read.
Speaker 1:I think the script has changed a lot. You think so, but I think that inevitably there's going to be some part of the script in the film, and I can sort of see it in the previews, and so the script, I think, isn't as developed as it could be. I think it's an odd choice for Luca Guadagnino, and so Luca Guadagnino is teaming up here with Julia Roberts, which people are talking about for Best Actress, andrew Garfield for Supporting Actor Ada Barry, supporting Actress Michael Stuhlberg's in this, again, because Michael Stuhlberg is in every Luca Guadagnino film, thank God. Well, actually you know he's not in Challengers. I know what's up with that. Let's re-edit that and put Michael Stuhlberg in. Let's make the movie better, anyway. So I think there's a lot of anticipation for this film.
Speaker 1:I was really surprised to see it out of competition, or is it the reverse, that you were not so surprised after reading the script? I guess you're right. After reading the script, I'm not surprised to see it out of competition. I'm surprised that Luca Guadagnino directed it. And even looking at the trailer, I think you know I'm surprised that Luca Guadagnino directed that.
Speaker 1:Also, the trailer is odd to me, like for me, so much was off. The tone seemed a little off to me. So much, so much was off. The tone seemed a little off to me. His compositions, which are normally so impacting for me was, were also off. I think the acting is a little bit on a, on a different level than what he's usually working with. He's also working with brian grazer for the first time, I think b Grazer, the go-to producer for Ron Howard, a long standing collaboration, but Brian Grazer, I believe, is a producer on this film. I kind of wonder.
Speaker 1:This is maybe the rare film that Luca doesn't go to the table with, but instead he's invited to the table and the movie's already there, if that kind of makes sense. And my pitch to you was the most I see Luca Guadagnino on here is, you know, technically, a discussion with Amazon, mgm. We helped you make challengers, right, so now you give us one. You think so, maybe. Maybe the thing that really throws me off, that really throws me off, is the invitation to NYFF by Dennis Lim. I think Dennis has, you know, yeah, he's very fine taste, very fine taste, and he's very scrutinizing. He doesn't invite just anyone and it's not, I think, even on the spotlight section there, it's in the main slate.
Speaker 1:However, I do want to say, and this is important context in that, you know, an Amazon and GM film has lately found its way into the nyff lineup, and this year I mean last year was nickel boys, um. So I'm just saying they have a presence at this nyff lineup and this year their horse is after the hunt. That is true, that is absolutely true. That said, luca doesn't, isn't always invited to new york, um, and the other thing I'll say is that the New York lineup in general has me a little bit, uh, perplexed. I mean, I would not have figured, necessarily both the inclusion of is this Mike on? And after the hunt. So I do, we'll see and maybe I'm just I'm going to be incredibly surprised by the films.
Speaker 1:Um, but I think you know, based on discussions we've had about the script and we'll talk more about it I mean we're about to see what the actual film, the response to the film, is, and it'd be interesting to see the differences between you know what people are saying the film is about and what it feels like watching it and the script that you read. But certainly, I wonder, we have, we've had these discussions where is this film trying to be? Like a more watered down version of, like tar? Yes, you know, those are kind of the vibes that I was getting from the trailer and from the discussions we were having and I just, yeah, I think that there's an element to that. I think people are excited because Julia Roberts is going to be in a more complicated, complicated role, possibly a more highbrow movie. Andrew Garfield is getting cast in a role that you know he doesn't typically get, ayo Deberry doing a dramatic role, which is not necessarily what she's known to do in movies, and again you have Luca Guadagnino and I. I also brought up the idea, well like, maybe, after exploring the trio and challengers, he really wanted to flip that and explore a different kind of trio, maybe, right, um, but I think there's a lot of things that throw me off about this film. Uh, I will.
Speaker 1:I think it's important to mention a couple of things about out of competition, which is, again, it's outside of those two films that generally get in for venice competition into best picture. That said, they do happen. Sometimes. A star is born, he's able to do it. It's outside of those two films that generally get in for Venice competition into Best Picture. That said, they do happen. Sometimes. A Star is Born, is able to do it. Hacksaw Ridge is able to do it, and so some films that have been able to go from out of competition to Best Picture are Gravity, spotlight, hacksaw Ridge, a Star is Born and Dune, and so it's really those five. A Star is Born and Dune, and so it's really those five. Maybe, if there was 10 spots in 2020, one Night in Miami could have maybe done it.
Speaker 1:Other films to be out of competition and get some kind of nomination were Society of the Snow and WE and Victoria and Abdul. I remember they invited Conclave last year yeah, out of competition, and conclave sort of passed and said, no thanks, yeah, um, but that would have been again. It's a movie that's high quality enough it would have still gotten all those oscar nominations. You'd have to think that the reason why they invited it to out of competition is because artistically maybe it wasn't as confrontational or challenging, um, and so maybe that that's just the thing with After the Hunt. It's a very good execution of a, of a more typical or or um routine type of movie, um, but I do think that you know of that list that I that I said.
Speaker 1:You know Gravity Stars Born, uh, hacksaw Ridge, um, all those movies benefited, I think, from box office. Yes, box office is a huge, important part as to why they get into best picture and because this is an Amazon MGM release, I do wonder if, uh, they're going to be able to replicate that strategy. You know, the box office for nickel boys wasn't, was mostly non-existent, however, plan B was behind that film. Right, it was mostly non-existent, however, plan B was behind that film. And Air Force, right, absolutely, and Nickel Boys doesn't need money. But I think that, technically, you want this film to make some money. At the same time, it's from Amazon, so Amazon doesn't care, amazon just wants to put it on their streamer, right?
Speaker 1:I think the other thing besides money that sticks out to me from these titles that are able to sort of cross over from out of competition into best picture, the other thing that sticks out to me is gravity star is born, uh, dune, for instance. Those are all warner brothers movies, yeah, um. And so warner brothers is better at you know, you know campaigning that populist film, yeah, um. So I think it'll be interesting to see. It'll be interesting to see. It'll be interesting to see if the movie is going to be able to cross over.
Speaker 1:I have my deep suspicions. I think there's something about because I think they're playing on the same day, right the Julia Roberts and the George Clooney movie. There's something kind of weird about that for me, right? You know the two actors from Tickets to Paradise or Ticket to Paradise, you know, getting the same Venice date. Obviously they want to put all the star wattage on just that one day. It's also the premiere of Begonia, I think.
Speaker 1:Oh, really, I think so, yeah, okay, really interesting, yeah, but yeah, you can already sort of see that if the movies take off. You know sort of see that if the movies take off, you know Julia Roberts and George Clooney are essentially going to campaign each other all year long, which could which is really going to benefit them, but could also maybe go a little tedious. Yeah, and I will also say that I don't know if the Academy of today is really, you know, the Academy of yesteryear where, you know, julia Roberts and George Clooney reigned supreme, you know kind of thing. You know, I think that maybe we're in a new age. So in a way, I kind of, right now, my gut is that it's unlikely that both of them will play huge factors into the awards race. It'll be one of their movies, not both, um and I.
Speaker 1:Just, you know the discussions we've had after you've read the script and what I saw in the trailer and I'm a huge Luca Guadagnino fan, by the way I'm just not, I'm not loving it right now. I'm very iffy about it, but maybe it's, you know, possibly middle of the road enough for the Oscars to finally be like, okay, yeah, I'll watch this, like I'm only going to watch five minutes of queer, but I can sit through all after the hunt. You know what I mean, or I? What was the bigger splash about, anyway? Or Suspiria, like what was going on there? All great films, yeah, yeah, I just think it's interesting that he wasn't invited into competition.
Speaker 1:And I also think it's interesting that, like I think that if it was a great movie, they would not have had any hesitation in inviting the Luca Guadagnino into competition. It's because it's not like he's won the big one. Yeah, he hasn't, and he can't win the big one for this one. We know that. But I also think it's interesting, sort of it's emblematic of where the industry's at now, where you have these two marquee stars from, you know, 20 years ago premiering films essentially together at Venice.
Speaker 1:They just also happen to be films that are going to have a stronger impact on streaming than theaters, and you don't really, you know, you don't really think of George Clooney and Julia Roberts as streaming stars, but I think that's kind of where we're at as an industry, right, and it's tough to think about their last films that existed in a more traditional form, and I wonder if that's going to be a turnoff, like when you have Julia Roberts in that film with Mahershala Ali that did really well on Netflix. That's sort of end of the world. And you have George Clooney in Midnight Sky. They're not films that are necessarily poorly received and that they don't have a bad word of mouth and bad press. There's just something about because they're not playing the way that's considered. More Oscar-friendly theaters, for example, they're just easier to forget about. I guess Begonia is still going to have to come out in 2,000 theaters and make some money, you know. So I do think that it'll be interesting to see if this festival is going to show like a resurgence for both of those stars At the same time, in showing that, it's also going to admit that maybe box office is less important and that you know, streaming is as valid as anything, and that maybe it's not important how many theaters Amazon gets for After the Hunt or how much money it makes, and it can go from out of competition not making much money at all and into a Best Picture nomination just because it's that great to see Julia Roberts in that role again, or whether maybe we're right there's something that you know at the core is going to end up tripping up both films.
Speaker 1:Yeah, right, you know to to close off our discussion on on venice, and we'll be keep track of all the developments and all the news you know on on the website, hopefully, and on social, on social media, and you can always follow us. Um, but my, I think it'd be great to close it by asking you, knowing now that if I were to ask you to select two films that are going to graduate from being in Venice competition into a Best Picture nomination, what two films do you select? Yeah, right now, I think I would go with A House of Dynamite as the Netflix film that splashes. It doesn't have to be a Netflix film, right, but let's say, netflix has three films in competition. Yeah, so A House of Dynamite, the Netflix film, and Begonia Begonia from Focus Focus. Yes, focus was able to get Tar in.
Speaker 1:Yes, do you think Netflix can have both movies come from their camp? I mean, searchlight was able to do this 2017, shape of Water and Three Billboards outside of Missouri. Do you think Netflix has what it takes to get two movies in at the same time? I think it could happen. I think it could happen considering the horses. I mean, I like the team behind Jay Kelly, I love the story and the premise and all the timeliness of A House of Dynamite and I love the craftsmanship of Frankenstein. So I think, yeah, it can happen On paper.
Speaker 1:For me, the movie that I think that could really break out from what I know about it is no Other Choice. But the whole neon factor I think is super detrimental. So if I had to pick two movies, I think you're right. Netflix has been able to get four of their films from In Competition into Best Picture nominations and they have three this year. So I think one is automatically a Netflix film and then I think the other one because it should be a film that sort of crosses over into these other areas like acting, writing, directing, and is not a foreign film.
Speaker 1:Typically, I do think that the best candidate would be Begonia, so I agree with you on that. As far as netflix, I know you're saying a house of dynamite and it makes a lot of sense to me. But seeing you know the footage and and the posters we have so far and knowing, for example, that alexander payne is the jury president, um, I'm going to lean in the area that jake Jay Kelly is going to be the big standout. Yeah, it could happen. So Jay Kelly from Netflix and Begonia from Focus Features is what I'll pitch. Okay, okay, and again, we'll see very soon how right or wrong we are and how right our deep dives were. And so, just really quick. You know, telluride doesn't, famously doesn't reveal their lineup until the start of the festival. Um, I was fortunate enough to go into Telluride Film Festival a while back, a while back, uh, it was one of my favorite experiences ever. I love that festival.
Speaker 1:Um, and some titles, just based on the selections of the other festivals and the premiere status, that I think have a good shot of showing up at Tally Ride. Hamnet, I think, is a no-brainer lock to premiere at Tally Ride. We expect it to do well there and solidify its Oscar campaign. Ballad of a Small Player. If I had Legs I'd Kick. You should be there. We saw that at Sundance. It was just an accident.
Speaker 1:Novo, vox, sentimental Value, the Secret Agent, all Cannes films that we saw. Train Dreams, a film that we missed at Sundance, I think has a good chance of showing up at a place like Telluride. It's going to Toronto. Tuner, which I think is a Dustin Hoffman film, a film that Dustin Hoffman is in. That should be going to Tally Ride. I wonder if this standout Sundance film that we didn't catch, unfortunately Black News Terms and Conditions. It's going to NYFF. I think that might show up at Tally Ride. The Laura Portris documentary cover-up should be there. Jay Kelly, I think is a no-brainer to be there. The Mastermind, I think is very likely from Kelly Radker. We saw that at Cannes. Peter Hujar's Day is coming out soon, I think November-ish. That was a standout at Sundance. That again we unfortunately missed. But I think that has a good chance of showing up at Telluride. Blue Moon, which was a Berlin premiere from Richard Linklater, I think that stands a good chance. Both Richard Linklater films I think will be there.
Speaker 1:I wonder if La Grazia will make a stop at Telluride after Venice. Pillion, I think might be there. The Perfect Neighbor, the documentary which we saw at Sundance, I think it should play there as well. Dracula, I wonder if that'll play possibly after um, after it's Locarno premiere. Uh, telluride, I mean it was. It's gotten very uh bizarre reactions out of Locarno. Um. Radu Jude, that was a brilliant filmmaker. I look forward to seeing that. Um. Uh, there's a documentary about with Hassan, uh, called with Hassan and Gaza. I think that might go there. I wonder if the Darden brothers and my favorite Cannes film, the Young Mother's Home will show up there. I think that they very well might. And you know there's a website, a blog that Joseph introduced me to, called Michael's Telluride Blog. Oh yeah, that's great which is a great blog, and I really recommend you guys check it out if you ever can.
Speaker 1:And he spends a great deal of time and effort and research into predicting the lineup for a telly ride and he's usually spot on. So I mean, just looking at his last post, the films that he sees as going in, and again, I would take this, as you know, very good information and I think he really knows what he's talking about. He's got Hamnet it was just an accident. Sentimental Value, the Ballad of a Small Player, secret Agent Novo Vogue, tuner Springsteen, deliver Me From Nowhere should be going there as well. I think that that's. I think he predicts that it will, and I agree with him.
Speaker 1:The History of Sound, which I was able to see at Cannes, sort of has been quieting down since its Cannes premiere wasn't all that. The release date is actually coming up pretty soon, very soon. I liked it, but I think it was more of a muted reaction at Cannes. Jay Kelly he's predicting Jay Kelly. Begonia, the mastermind, cover-up, ghost Elephants, herzog. Herzog is a favorite at Telluride Pileon, la Grazia Resurrection by B Gann, which we talked about. We missed it, unfortunately. I can Nuestra Tierra, which is the Lucretia Martel documentary. I think it's Landmarks, yeah, it's Landmarks in English Nuestra Tierra, in Spanish, blue Moon, maybe A Private Life, which was a film by a filmmaker who we like, that's right, rebecca Zlatowski, and it went to Cannes. We missed it, though, with Jodie Foster. So you should see those films comfortably get into the Telluride lineup when it's revealed.
Speaker 1:He's got good intel, yeah, very good, and we look forward to seeing what the reaction is going to be post the beginning days of Venice and the famous weekend of Telluride. We're going to know a lot. We're going to know a lot already, and after the awards race, I think most films will have been seen. Just a number of them won't.
Speaker 1:I think there's still a rumor that Marty Supreme might make a pit stop at the NYFF. No, oh well, they always have that sort of scene. Yeah, yeah. So I think that's very possible. I thought that might be Paul. No, paul, pta is going to show by then, right, yes, september. We can't wait for the PTA film, of course, and so you know, in the next two months, we'll have a much better impression of what the race is going to look like and I think it'll be a little bit easier for you and I to sort of shape the race. Yeah, be able to make our calls, yeah, and some of those calls, I think, will be spot on, and hopefully some of our predictions with how these films are going to turn out at these festivals isn't too far off, we'll see. All right.
Speaker 1:Well, for Academy Anonymous. This is Joseph signing off. This is Jules, and it's been a pleasure See you next time. The music on this episode, entitled cool cats, was graciously provided by kevin mcleod and incompetechcom, licensed under creative commons by attribution 3.0 http//creativecommonsorg licenses buy 3.0. Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.