Academy Anonymous
An invaluable, unparalleled and only partly-delusional resource for any cinephiles and Oscar-addicts forever obsessing about whether their favorite films, performances and artists will survive another grueling Oscar season.
Join us on our noble (futile! compulsive!) mission to track the contenders, mourn the flop-aroonis, cut-down the winners, champion the over-looked and generally forecast the state of the race with “100% accuracy" (results may vary).
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2025-2026: TIFF Crowns A Winner; the State of the Oscar Race After the Fall Festivals
Visit us at FramesAndFlicker.com
Follow us: @AcademyAnon
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- Icon of Cinema Robert Redford passes away
- Recapping results from the Toronto International Film Festival
- Will TIFF's new dual People's Choice Award categories create more crossover with Best Picture at the Oscars? Or sow more chaos?
- HAMNET a solid frontrunner following People's Choice Award
- Can FRANKENSTEIN, WAKE UP DEAD MAN or NO OTHER CHOICE ride People's Choice selection to possible Best Picture surprises?
- The biggest losers at TIFF? Can RENTAL FAMILY, NUREMBERG, ROOFMAN and other titles survive People's Choice Award omission?
- The Best Picture Six - early surefire nominees you shouldn't bet against
- How many studios can double up their Best Picture nominations this year? Neon, Netflix, A24, Focus Features and Warner Bros. among favorites to nab multiple Best Picture nods.
- A24 presents "Safdie vs. Safdie" - will the two brothers' film divorce yield two Best Picture nominees or snubees?
- Will blockbusters or international films climb new heights in the Best Picture race?
- Is there enough room in Best Director for a Kathryn Bigelow vs. Chloé Zhao showdown? Or will voters leave one out in the cold?
- A nightmare Best Actor category will have the majority of worthy contenders missing the cut, so who has the edge?
- The secret to unlocking the Best Actor nominees - figuring out who has the chance to win!
- Will too many challenging films leave Oscar voters looking for more safe, conventional choices in Best Actress?
- Cynthia Erivo could be a historic winner for Best Actress, but first she must climb a mountain too impossible for even Al Pacino, Michael Corleone and THE GODFATHER! Does it spell trouble ahead?
Hey guys, welcome back to Academy Anonymous. I'm your host, jules.
Speaker 2:And I'm Joseph.
Speaker 1:Thank you for joining us, and so we have a few things to cover today. We're going to just look really quick at who were the winners of the Toronto Film Festival.
Speaker 2:Winners and losers.
Speaker 1:Right, specifically the Toronto People's Choice, which is a very coveted prize with regard to the Oscar race, and then we'll just take a wider glance at what the Oscar race looks like now that we're post the most notable uh fall festivals of telluride, toronto and venice I would say 80 of the slate has officially been screened.
Speaker 2:A giant movie sort of screened with toronto that was not part of toronto and sort of you know taking the lion's share of momentum right now. We'll cover that later yeah but certainly at this point most of the films have been seen and there are maybe like a one or two films in new york to maybe keep an eye on right.
Speaker 1:And then there are these big behemoths, studio films that will come out, you know, for the holiday seasons, um, in november and december right and before we dive in, just a quick reminder please visit us at our website framesandflickrcom that's three words, framesandflickrcom and follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon. That's our official Twitter for this podcast and you can actually see both of those on the podcast cover art.
Speaker 1:Yeah we added them there the website and the Twitter handle, so please follow us there. And right before we get started, I just want to take a quick moment to acknowledge the passing of one of the true greats in cinema. The great Robert Redford passed away recently. What a loss for the cinematic community, what a loss for independent film. Who is a paramount figure and champion of independent film. We all feel that loss deeply. He'll deeply be missed and his legacy and his art will live on.
Speaker 2:But it hurts hurts to lose someone as great as Robert Redford yeah, I absolutely agree, and we're unfortunately entering into a tough stretch for individuals who love film cinephiles because so many of the individuals that we idolize that helped carve out the significance of the art form in the us. They're getting older in age and so this is a huge loss for our community. But every time we watch a film, we watch a Sundance film. When we watch any of his work his early work, his work as a director, his work as a producer, as an actor we are celebrating his legacy making movies now, especially on the independent side. You know they celebrate his legacy for everything that he was able to sort of the, the trail that he was able to blaze for independent filmmakers with his Sundance Film Festival right, yeah, amen rest in peace yeah, all right.
Speaker 2:So let's start by digging into the TIFF People's Choice Award, right? Because I think we're talking about winners and losers. We can talk about the films that showed up, the films that needed to show up, the films that should have shown up and the films that, after they screened, you know were a very long shot to show up. So why don't you recap the winners for us?
Speaker 1:Well, the most important award is the People's Choice Award, even though this year they did something very strange. We talked about it on our Twitter that somehow they made a new category of People's Choice International, which really seemed kind of weird. It seemed like we were I don't know somewhat ghettoizing the international films.
Speaker 2:Strange is a kind word I think that you used. I think I can let me do a two minute rant here. What kind of decision was this to sort of split up the People's Choice Award from the English speaking films and the foreign language films? I think it's really odd. I wonder what motivated it, because a lot of the times the People's Choice Award has been pretty inclusive of films that are international. I almost would have debated that. Maybe if they were going to make a prize, it would have been dedicated just to Canadian films and Canadian productions. That would have made sense to me. But you have a lot of those Canadian films. Because they're english language, they're competing for that very competitive studio prize. Right, that's coming from a bunch of us films, right? So you're gonna have, for example, roof man, which did well or was positively, positively received.
Speaker 2:You're gonna have to have that compete against, uh, blue heron right which is from, which is from canada, was also really well received but, not as many people watched it and not as many people covered it in the media, and so I thought that was a strange choice.
Speaker 1:It's hard to try to decipher what is the motivation. I guess initially my reaction is that it's to try to, I guess, yeah, spotlight certain films, for example, um, maybe, I think tiff is very invested in having one of their premieres be on the final list and maybe by amplifying the possibilities and creating two categories, makes it more possible that a tiff premiere actually actually gets, uh, the top prize or gets at least cited more than once in the runner-ups, right, um, uh, but you know they, I think it's a premiere usually at least runners up to some degree, right, um, and sometimes wins, right, I think, often wins, and that was the case, certainly this year.
Speaker 2:But I I actually really like what you're sort of saying, because maybe the motivation and we talked about this is that you know, the toronto international film festival brand is, you know, the Toronto International Film Festival brand is, you know, possibly being outshined by some of these more international film festivals. And if we look at the world premiere section, they weren't as competitive in terms of they didn't premiere no Other Choice. They didn't premiere Sentimental Value, two films that placed. And so maybe this is a move to try to bring a few more international titles that would have opted for a premiere at venice or at can to come and pick up a first or second or third prize in that international people's choice category. Maybe they're hoping that they either are going to have the English language winner in their People's Choice Award or the foreign language winner in their People's Choice Award. If there is a movie like Parasite that's able to sort of capture both at the Academy, that Toronto will have listed it in what is now two categories and six spots right, three spots per category.
Speaker 1:Right. I'm getting the impression that because there's two categories, no film is going to repeat. So in the case of Parasite, if the two categories were available, it wouldn't show up in both, it would show up in one. No, I meant the Academy Awards. Oh, yes, you know.
Speaker 2:So maybe Toronto wants to say we had the winner for Best Picture in our People's Choice Award and maybe they also want to say we have the winner for Foreign Language Film or International film at the oscars in our international people's choice award. Right. And if the occasion should ever arise within the academy that you have a special film like parasite that wins best picture at the end and is also a foreign language film, that if you have that sort of premiere at can right I'm sorry, excuse me, at toronto, toronto may be able to. We had our world premiere international film go from being the People's Choice Award to being the Oscars Best Picture Choice.
Speaker 1:Right, I mean, I think that's possible. I do like your idea that I think you're hinting at is a way to compete with these foreign festivals that have these foreign contenders that, as we've spoken several times already on this podcast, you know, the foreign branch of the Academy is having more and more say here as to what movies get highlighted, and so I think they want to. You know, as you were, you were indicating they want a space of theirs that promotes some of these foreign, foreign language films that make an impact on the race. I agree with you. I think that's a good point Either way. I just think it's weird.
Speaker 1:Uh, I'm not sure I feel that it was necessary. Again, I think there's this sort of ghettoizing between the foreign films and the American slash Canadian films, and I'll also say that it presents an issue in that what if the most lauded film or the most uh liked film by festival goers that year was actually a foreign film? We won't really know now, because now they'll be relegated to their own category and the US Canadian films will have their own category, so we won't really get a good impression as to which film, foreign or otherwise, was really the favorite of the festival, the dominant people's choice, people's preference.
Speaker 2:I think that's exactly right and I have an interesting question that's going to circle back to that. You remind me at the end of our discussion to bring that up. But I do understand it from like a business perspective that Toronto's world premieres for a few years now just have not been able to stack up against the Cannes world premieres or the Venice world premieres, and I do believe that the organization likes to have world premieres within its People's Choice Award in either one or two of the three spots and by amplifying that to now be two, I'm sorry, two categories, six spots, they're hoping to have more world premieres in there and from a business point of view I understand that this is hopefully a move in the future, as early as next year, to try to get more international films to try to premiere at Toronto.
Speaker 1:Right. Anyway, the winners for the Toronto's People's Choice Canadian slash American section were, you know, not surprising Hamnet. You and I both predicted that Hammond would win. I think many people predicted it, predicted that it would, especially now that if we're, you know, separating categories, uh, hamnet was the clear winner. Um, it's certainly a huge uh candidate, a huge front runner in the race. Um, I'm very happy for Chloe Zhao. Uh, she's a very inspiring filmmaker to me.
Speaker 1:Um very surprising that the runner up was Frankenstein, after having a somewhat kind of polarizing response from both Venice and Telluride. From Venice was from critics, from Telluride were from audience members. You know this general impression that it's a it's a good film, it's not a great film. It's a little long, it's a little slow. It's a a great film. Um, it's a little long, it's a little slow. Um, it's a little bit. You know uh, it looks great, it looks majestic, it looks, you know, uh, completely beautiful to look at, but it's missing some soul. Um, that seemed to be the impression and here it is running up. Um, netflix is having a great year. They've got a lot of contenders. The second runner-up was actually another netflix film, wake up dead man, which was a premiere here at uh toronto. Um, we also predicted that that would place uh glass onion. Uh, the predecessor to uh wake up dead man also placed knives out. Number one, number one didn't. And the winners of the International People's Choice.
Speaker 2:So the inaugural International People's Choice award, the winner went to no Other Choice from Neon, and that was a Venice premiere and a can't snubby in theory. The first runner up went to Sentimental Value, which a lot of people were pegging was very likely to place among the three when there was just one category, so no surprise there. And then the second runner-up actually went to Homebound, which also premiered in Cannes and was, I believe, it's executive, produced by Martin.
Speaker 1:Scorsese and he announced that before its Cannes premiere yeah, I missed it's executive, produced by Martin Scorsese and he announced that before its Cannes premiere. Yeah, I missed it at Cannes. I had a ticket.
Speaker 2:I couldn't get it Right, but I actually don't think many people had pegged it for a win here, but it's nice to see. It's kind of interesting, right, chloe?
Speaker 1:Zhao. I will just point out that I got the reverse impression that Sentimental Value had a more muted response at telluride, I think had an ecstatic response, I can obviously, and uh, I mean toronto. Um had an ecstatic response at uh can obviously, and a very good one at um telluride, but at toronto the response was more muted. Um, you know, people liked it, people appreciated it, but it didn't have this fervor. They don't have this.
Speaker 2:It just didn't have the same passion I thought that was very interesting um seeing people's reaction to sentimental value I mean I I will say I think it's interesting that chloe zow now has two people's choice award, because nomadland won this award on its way to a best picture win, so it could be potentially very prophetic in terms of the future of this film. Interestingly enough, guillermo del Toro I believe he's a staple in Toronto at TIFF and I think the crowd loves him, but he's never really placed for this award. So Frankenstein being the first runner up is the first actual moment that Guillermo is getting sort of allotted for this prize.
Speaker 1:Shape of.
Speaker 2:Water did not place Pinocchio. I actually don't think went to the festival, but I think that they are big fans of Guillermo and I don't think that he's ever actually made a film that's gotten into the top three, so that was interesting to see. Right made a film that's gotten into the top three.
Speaker 1:So that was interesting to see, right? Well, like I said I said earlier, you know Netflix has a great problem this year. They have several contenders. Other years it seems like we're head scratching, wondering okay, where's Netflix going to put their weight behind? This year they've got plenty of choices. At the very top is the, I would argue, is the Venice-lauded? Is the venice uh lauded? Uh, katherine biglow film um, house of dynamite. I think that that is going to be a very big player this award season, which skipped if skipped, if so, I didn't have a chance to have that, you know. Second wind it will have a second wind soon at the new york film festival. Um, and they have Jay Kelly, which again kind of a mixed response in Venice, a terrific response from Tyler Rudd, and Wake Up Deadman, which had a great response at Toronto.
Speaker 2:Right, so this is now the second time that Rian Johnson's film gets listed among the top three, so that's good. I mean, last time it was listed, there was a lot of theories that Netflix was going to jump on board and make Glass Onion a big Best Picture player which I think they did try which they tried before, understanding that they had to sort of pivot to all choir in the Western front.
Speaker 2:It'll be interesting to see what they make out of this victory. Obviously, it certainly cements the idea that Wake Up Dead man is a strong screenplay contender right, but I would.
Speaker 1:I would also say that I think the reception was so big for so good for wake up dead man, many people saying that it's as good as the first one. I love the first night I was out. I'm a little bit more iffy on glass onion, um, and so, hearing those comparisons, some people were saying it was the best one. It's the best one. Yet I was thinking that possibly it would have a higher placement than second runner up. And then you know, when you looked at the critics, you know right now it's sort of averaging what the last two averaged and this one is placing where Glass Onion placed. So it's sort of slowly starting to form into, you know, kind of the regular kind of anticipation that you would have for that movie as to where it's going to place in the awards radar. Right now it looks like screenplay, but is there really anything else?
Speaker 2:The Knives Out films have been strictly ghettoized into a sort of screenplay category, and it seems like that's the trajectory here play category, and it seems like that's the trajectory here, and certainly this is not the case of 2022 where, as you said, netflix has an abundance of choices, right to push for best picture, so I don't know if this will push wake up dead man to the top of the pile.
Speaker 2:At the same time, I feel like now it has almost become a tradition where, like you're going to see a knives out film premiere strictly at tiff and I think the t audience, you know, is moved by that and it only heightens the expectation and the anticipation and the enthusiasm for whatever they're going to see on screen, and so we may be seeing a bit of that. I think the question that I was going to ask you, which is important and could be telling, is what if there was only one category? What if there was only one people's choice award? Who do you think are the three? Because that's really, I think, where you have to zero in on what is the meaning behind who won each category and what are the films that are listed? So, between the six, if I, if I asked you hypothetically to give me one category, who do you think won? Was it Chloe Zhao's movie or was it Park Chan-wook's?
Speaker 1:I want to say that I feel pretty confident that that would have been Chloe Zhao's film.
Speaker 2:Okay.
Speaker 1:And I'd go even further and I would say that, as well as no Other Choice was received at Toronto because it was I would wager that if it were a normal year, the top three would have been the top three in the US Canadian People's Choice. Oh wow, that no Other Choice would have ranked somewhere like number four.
Speaker 2:Okay, well, see, I'm the opposite and I think that's interesting. So you think that the top three from the People's Choice Award English side was actually the authentic top three before they amplified it into that international category? Okay, I'm actually I disagree with you. I think the winner would have been Hamnet and it sort of you know, epitomizes how much of an early favorite it is and how much people are responding. Audiences are responding to the film. It's meeting the expectation that people have going into it, which is a very good sign. But I actually think that the second place because I did not hear a tremendous amount of fervor for Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein when it was playing in Toronto I actually do think the second place would have been no Other Choice. I think that the second favorite film was Park Chan-wook's, which is interesting because there was this narrative coming out of Venice that, on a level purely of the filmmaking, a lot of people were pegging Park Chan-wwook's. No other choice to win it was. It was maybe the first film that played at venice where, after it premiered, people were already saying okay, so this is the bar for the golden lion this is the first true contender to win the golden lion right
Speaker 2:can anyone beat it? Obviously it didn't win any award at venice. A lot of films didn't win any award at Venice, a lot of films didn't win anything and the jury, led by Alexander Payne, decided to go elsewhere. But to me it sort of solidified that idea that no Other Choice is a really, really, really liked movie amongst audience members, and so I think that that's second, and so third it's interesting because I would have pegged the Rian Johnson film, but we already know the Rian johnson film lost to frankenstein.
Speaker 1:So I'm I'm thinking that third is either frankenstein or sentimental value, and, knowing that del toro hasn't really placed in the top three before, I want to say that the third spot actually went to sentimental value I think that's interesting, but I, I, I feel, I feel, really it feels wrong to not think that, you know, based on its reception and based on its legacy as to as of now, that, uh, a knives out film hadn't played, didn't place in the top three. So that's why that's something that's really turning me to. Yeah, you know, the top three were the top american, canadian I think that's interesting.
Speaker 2:It's possible. I just not sure that what I read from the reviews and from reactions from individuals who saw it at tiff made me feel like it eclipsed either the first one or the second one, that it matched the second one and it doesn't feel like the series is over like that they're not going to revisit it in the future, that there's plenty of reason and motivation to revisit it in the future, and so it just to me. My impression was it was another solid, very good film in the Knives Out series.
Speaker 1:Not necessarily anything super special other than what is now tradition having a Knives Out film premiere at TIFF right it certainly seems that way, based on what it won, but based on just the reaction after the, after the premiere, it seemed like it might have been different. We'll see what happens and we posted an article on our website, um, kind of just going through what the general consensus was of many of the premieres and other films that showed up at toronto. So please check that out when you have a moment. Uh, but just going through the slate of films, I think one of the films that I think was pegged to do really well here um from a very early start and then the film premiered. It got decent critics and even many of the people who saw it admitted that it felt like it was the kind of film that was generated in the lab to basically win the TIFF People's Choice Award, and that is Rental Family with Brendan Fraser. It had a good reception at the festival, but it did not even place at the Toronto People's Choice Again, a film that felt to many that was sort of generated to do that. I certainly think that Searchlight Pictures that was the intent, that was the goal Use the Toronto People's Choice win to launch it into the Oscar conversation for Best Picture. Searchlight is super thin this year with Oscar contenders. This was their big horse, it seems, and it didn't even place. So I find that very interesting and in one way, it seems like the audience didn't want to go for what I guess a film that felt generated to be the winner. Um, it didn't really want to go the predictable route and I find that really refreshing, because that would have been a really boring choice.
Speaker 1:Um and uh, you know, it was smelling to me from the very beginning, when all of this started propping up, the rental family test screenings were supposedly very positive. I think you had some Oscar impundence kind of push, this narrative that the film was going to be a big Oscar player and it was going to be nominated for picture and directing and acting and screenplay. And then, little by little, the film started gaining momentum on places like Gold Derby and you and I were always kind of puzzled. You know where is this noise coming from? It's coming from test screenings. That's weird. You know where is this noise coming from? It's coming from test screenings, that's weird.
Speaker 1:Um, uh, you know, it just felt like certain, you know, pundits were pushing this narrative. We were, we were skeptical. The trailer comes out. I'm still skeptical, but I'm smelling the possibility of a jojo rabbit happening here and winning the tip people's choice award. So I'm a little bit worried. Then the film comes out and it has a decent premiere and actually got better critics than jojo rabbit did. Better than I thought, yeah, better than I thought too, um and uh. But even many of the people who saw it and liked it and reviewed it positively admitted that. You know there's some blatant manipulation happening here emotionally and it's sort of sent. It's too sentimental, it's a little cloying, so you know, but but it's positive. It's in the it's in the 60s, on metacritic, jojo rabbit never got there, um, obviously you can tell I'm a big fan of jojo rabbit, um, and and so you know I just felt like there was this forced push to make it a thing. And then it shows up at toronto and it becomes not a thing because it doesn't even place, wasn't there?
Speaker 2:this idea that it, like it's screened in Berlin for some individuals, and then the reception was so enthusiastic that people have started pegging it as like, oh, it's a surefire best picture contender. Because, again, I think there it also exists this idea that Searchlight is going to get a film in the top 10. And that Searchlight is going to get a film in the top 10. And that usually does happen. So you would figure that it's going to be rental family, that it's not looking like a surefire thing right now. There's still a lot of ways that they can turn that around, so we'll see what happens. But between that sort of expectation that Searchlight is going to be there they were there yet last year when it looked like it was a little dicey, they still managed to get in but um, between that expectation for them to be there and that initial sort of um response from that screening and having, like the first set of individuals saying, oh, this is definitely happening for best picture yeah the.
Speaker 2:You know, I think it totally got blown out of proportion. Yes, I always thought this was going to have a little bit of trouble with the TIFF crowd, because I think the TIFF crowd is also. They're very well-versed in the kind of movies that they like and they like films from, possibly, filmmakers that are a little bit more established. And so I thought it was possibly a little too soon to have that filmmaker win. Yeah, to have Hikari win the very, the big prize right.
Speaker 1:I think that's a really good point. I didn't put enough stock into that. I was worried that it was going to win and then when I saw that had better reviews than jojo rabbit, I said it's a done deal. So did I. But then hamnet started having the screenings and chloe's. I was doing this masterful, you know, pre-screening ritual and I was like this is, this is. This is brilliant, this is amazing, do?
Speaker 2:you think that chloe zhou and focus are gonna work now on like having her record that I would love that I think that they're. I would love I honestly 100. I would love that it could be a little tacky, I'm not gonna lie but, I honestly think that they are considering it having chloe zhou introduce the film in theaters to audiences with a small video, sort of saying why don't we do this exercise? For just like 30 seconds Right.
Speaker 1:You know this meditative exercise. You know I loved it. I would have loved to been in the room and you see the videos that circulated online of Chloe Zhao doing this exercise, this meditative experience, you know, and you know she comes across so genuine and so graceful and it's really touching, it's really moving. I would have loved to have been in the room when that happened, so I would love a video before every screening.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean, listen. I think that if Focus Features is very committed to winning the Best Picture Oscar, all they have to do is invest the money to fly Chloe Zhao on opening weekend to as many theaters as possible and have her lead everyone in the meditative exercise, and they are going to win Best Picture If they unleash the Chloe Zhao initiative then, it's over.
Speaker 2:It's like when Ryan Coogler released that video on I don't even know if it was Instagram or TikTok or Twitter or whatever talking about the format, that the film was going to be projected in centers, like that's where he said, like the staple, like yeah, so this, this is the individual who's going to win best director or best picture, and so the counter to that is now to unleash Chloe Zhao out there right before the movie starts, leading wide swaths of audiences right through the meditative experience and that's, and they will win best picture. I guarantee it.
Speaker 1:If they invest money that way, there will win it and actually some other titles that I think wanted to get a wind at tiff but didn't. Other premieres um, we got good, really good notices from roofman again all this is in the article that we posted post tiff. Um, but really good notices from Roofman Again all this is in the article that we posted post TIFF. But really good notices from Roofman. It's coming out very soon and it got very positive reviews and it seemed like a, you know, a very charming, possibly winning, you know, the audience award, the People's Choice Award. It did not Crowd pleaser Crowd pleaser exactly.
Speaker 1:Sony Pictures Classics really tried to push Nuremberg into the Oscar conversation. Some people were pretty high on it. I think Scott Feinberg really liked it. I think people from Variety really liked it.
Speaker 2:Everyone says that it's very topical.
Speaker 1:Yes, yeah, about the Nuremberg trials. However, you know, critically it's still borderline and it didn't win anything and it needed. It needed to win right. And so I feel like we're in this territory where sony picture classic maybe, was betting on this movie to be a possible, you know, their their their ticket to the best picture top 10 and it's not. It's not looking like that's what's gonna happen, right, I agree, um, paul greengrass had his latest film and come in the toronto lineup. The last bus also has some timeliness because of the forest fires that happened earlier this year in california. Um, and again, I think people were very appreciative of the technical work of the movie, especially the sound work and the visual effects, imagery, but the story itself, the script, got a more you know sort of muted response and, critically, it's also borderline.
Speaker 1:So it wasn't this rapturous response and it seems like Apple TV is rushing that into the platform, the streaming platform. And then a similar case with Hedda, which I think received, you know, pretty decent critics, but again borderline. Also, a lot of good notices for Tessa Thompson and Nina Haas, who won one of the acting tributes Uh, I heard that they make a dynamic duo but again more borderline critics and it really seems like Amazon is prioritizing after the hunt, giving it uh enough, uh, theaters to show in, and they're really rushing Hedda into the Amazon Prime streaming slot. That's what it seems like, which is going to hurt it significantly.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean. Well, I mean, I think the other thing to talk about is sort of the films that needed a second wind here after premiering elsewhere, and I think, for example, frankenstein is the best case scenario where you're right, after having played in venice and telly riot, for it to come and go to tiff and come out with second place. I think that's a huge, huge win for that film, um, but there were some other films that really could have benefited from that sort of um, that sort of accolade. The first one that comes to my mind is the voice of hin rajab. Yes, after an explosive premiere at venice.
Speaker 2:It would have really, really benefited from placing and especially since now we have two categories. I thought it was a definite even more, even more reason I certainly thought it was going to place when there was one category among three, when there's two and among six. That it didn't place may sort of stymie some of the idea that it has the legs to yeah, crash the best picture to crash the best picture race to get nominated for something other than just international film, um.
Speaker 2:So that was a bit surprising for me to see it and to see it now listed there, um, in any of the top three on the international section. Another surprise potentially could be that Jafar Panahi's film, it Was Just an Accident, did not place either. And there's another film that, as the Palme d'Or winner, last year's Palme d'Or winner, did place, onora, and so this is still strictly a Jafar Panahi film and thank God for that. It's an amazing film, a beautiful film, but it's also, like other Jafar Panahi films, not the typical film to get listed for best picture or best director. Really, the Palme d'Or has sort of changed the conversation around it. It's a powerful piece, but the Palme d'Or is what is going to motivate an Oscar voter to watch the film that it did not place here in the People's choice award on the international section is a little bit of a blow, um, it doesn't help.
Speaker 2:I think the idea that this is from the same studio that's going to be releasing no other choice neon and they're gonna have to make decisions because they have just too many films and too many films playing the same card, in my opinion. So sentimental value from neon makes it in in second place. No other choice wins. The big one from neon, um, jafar panahi, was left out of the top three um, but you also have the secret agent, for example. That's another one that really could have used a little bit more wind um at its sale. Um, it did not get listed in the top three again. Another neon pick for foreign film, um that in another year maybe would have been able to. I thought I had a chance to win or place among the category when there was just three spots, and so those are, I think, um three of the bigger films that could have really benefited from a boost right from getting listed for that people's choice award on the international section.
Speaker 1:Right, okay, so now let's look at what the landscape looks like now that these major festivals have premiered and, as you were saying at the top of the show, a lot has been seen. There's very little that hasn't been seen. Obviously, we're going to talk about one battle at a later date. Yuri and I are going to see it in a couple of days. Many critics have already seen it. It's unanimously loved and praised, so we expect that to factor in substantially into the Oscar race. A question mark that you and I have gone back and forth over is how well the film is going to do financially.
Speaker 2:That's really going to be sort of what's going to determine what kind of legs the film has. The movie is good. Individuals love it, critics love it. I'm sure fans of paul thomas anderson are really going to enjoy it. We can't wait the the idea of the price tag on the film and whether it's going to make noise at the box office. That's going to determine whether the film is a five nominee film or a 10 nominee film.
Speaker 1:So that's what we're really waiting on, right and so and if the movie can sort of muster a you know actual front runner, it's going to win best picture. It's going to win best director. It's going to win all these awards. A lot of it's going to depend, unfortunately, on how well the movie does financially, because of the big price tag that we have here yeah um, and right now estimates are a little bit below what's expected.
Speaker 1:So we're going to see how that plays out and we're going to have more conversation about that. As we get in the coming days Exactly Um and uh. All these uh predictions will be, of course, up on our website. You can see our current predictions there. Uh, we're slowly working on the tech categories that will be up very soon, as well as anytime we update the last update, you know the dates will be on there as well. So we're looking at best picture here.
Speaker 1:Uh, certain films actually I think I would say five or six films feel like no brainers. You know sinners, in no particular order sinners, hamnet, sentimental value, one battle after another, um, and it was just an accident to me smell already like, oh, and I would add to that well, you know I'll get there. Um, those five to me feel like locks. Um, as you were saying earlier in the show. You know jafar panahi's film. In any other year where it wasn't the palm d'or winner, its best shot would just be foreign film.
Speaker 1:But now that that it is the Palme d'Or winner, I think we can count on Neon getting both their Cannes premiering films in, and I'll also add that I think A House of Dynamite is just so timely and it's going to do so well with critics, and I think it's going to be a film that really taps into the zygus, you know, of sort of climate that we're living in as a nation.
Speaker 1:I think it's going to be a big talking point. I think people will be conversing about it. I think it's going to have its fans in terms of audiences, and it's going to have its detractors. I expect some you know political rhetoric to get involved here because of how timely the subject is. Right. I think it's going to do really well on Netflix. I think it's going to continue to get great critics. I just don't see how this movie doesn't get nominated for best picture. You and I were pinpointing, before Venice was coming out, that people were sleeping on this movie and it was destined to do really well it did, and I just don't see it missing here.
Speaker 2:I think I agree with you. This is another movie, not unlike One Battle, where it's obvious that the movie has the goods. It's going to come down to what the reception is like from American audiences, us audiences and even international audiences when it finally premieres on Netflix. Because the film could be attacked to the point of submission, to the point of the Academy electing to not wanting to spotlight it after all. It could be sort of framed as not having a thoughtful enough conversation, framed as being selective in its point of view. So we'll just have to wait to see how audiences react, but it certainly seems like the movie has the goods.
Speaker 1:Right. I think that's a really good point that you're saying Possibly that's the sixth one. I would say that I feel pretty confident about um. Like I said, netflix has so many contenders that I can't help but think. And and as you take a wider scope of the best picture race, it becomes more clear that I think we're going to have a year where several studios are going to have more than one film get nominated for best picture. That doesn't happen often.
Speaker 2:It does happen, but it hasn't been the trend, yeah and that's also by virtue of a lot of studios just not having material that is going to go the distance when it comes to getting nominated. So if you look at something like roof man, which it would need to do so well at the box office for the os Oscars to sort of be forced into taking it seriously, right, and not a lot of studios have a film that they can push that way.
Speaker 1:But I also will say that it's indicative of the strength of certain studios that they're having this year. So Warner Brothers is having a hell of a year this year, after having a really not good year last year a bounce back, a huge bounce back. So it makes sense that they would get two films in right uh netflix has an array of contenders it would make sense that they get two films in and after being pissed from winning anything really substantial last year and then neon you know, as essentially said, we're picking up every, you know, every, yeah, every every grade foreign film this year.
Speaker 1:Yes, so it would make sense for them to get in as well. So right now I have those three studios as being the ones that get more than one contender in even even then, if you go beyond that.
Speaker 2:I know you're not necessarily pegging it, but if you look at something like focus features, it looks.
Speaker 2:It looks like focus features is refusing to lose this year right um and that between the thing, the films that they do have you, they have. Hamnet Begonia did well. It's a question mark again as to is it going to do well enough with audiences to push a contemporary yogurt film into the 10? They already released the trailer for Song Sung Blue, so if they need a film that's just going to appeal to audiences and make some money, they have that too. So again, after losing for Conclave last year, I really think that focus features. Their strategy is we win at all costs this year right.
Speaker 1:Um, I'm I'm feeling a bit iffy. I think focus features is having a banger year as well. I just I'm very iffy right now. In begonia, as we mentioned in one of our last episodes, I had a terrific response from venice. I expect strong critical acclaim. It already has it. I expect more so as it gets closer to the release date.
Speaker 1:But contemporary films from Yorgos have been spotty at the Academy. They certainly prefer him in his period space. His you know Taylor Swift, you know his period era and you know this is decidedly not bad. It's very much in the vein of what you and I were anticipating His Lobster, his Killing of a Sacred Deer, terrific, amazing films. I think I would even say modern day Yorgos is my favorite. Yorgos personally, right, but it's not the Academy's favorite. And knowing that the Focus Features has such a bona fide shoe-in with Hamnet and that Yorgos was so recently acknowledged for poor things and you know I'm sensing that the Academy is going to want a break from Yorgos if we're not dealing with another poor things favorite sort of scenario Right now, I'm seeing the film at best get nominated in the screenplay category and possibly one of the acting categories, which I think will really be determined not necessarily by the strength of the performances even though I'm sure that's there but will be determined by the space of the category.
Speaker 2:I absolutely agree with you. I think that's absolutely a possibility. I think the ultimate test for a lot of these films, you know, after the six films that you mentioned here, I really see the last four spots being wide open and it's going to come down to what performs better with audiences. And so if somehow Begonia does muster a strong reception from audiences because it epitomizes the I don't know the extreme culture and the extreme culture of violence that we've sort of devolved into, if that's something that audiences want to see and want to discuss, it could. It could of course get more than those, those one or two or three nominations.
Speaker 2:So, it again really depends on what do audiences in the U? S and abroad, what do they want to see? What do they want to talk about?
Speaker 1:Right and it does feel like the more politically charged a film is, the more I feel like audiences are sort of skirting away from that sort of being inundated with this sort of, you know, political vigor. You know, uh, this vigorous sort of political you know uh perspective day in and day out, much of it really negative and sad and ugly is making a lot of audiences really kind of hesitate to go and watch these films in the theater. Certainly, you know, we'll get into it, you know soon, but you know this certainly feels like Paul Thomas Anderson's most politically charged film. I haven't seen it yet, so maybe that proves to be different, but from the reviews that we're seeing, it doesn't seem that that's a false statement. Uh, and I think that could factor into its box office as well.
Speaker 2:Yeah, um, maybe audiences just want to escape. And if they want to escape and again we have those four spots open it just makes a better argument for why you have to keep an eye out for a film like weapons right you have to keep an eye out for a film like f1 just because they are easier, films that audiences would support in droves and you know, their financial sort of um. Accomplishments are going to be considered at the end of the day.
Speaker 1:But I also will say that you know, in terms of what we were talking about, with the sort of political climate and these politically charged films possibly not doing so well, I think that's something that is going for a film like house of dynamite, in that it's not really a theater release, it's a streaming film, and so I think that audiences will be more likely to tune into something so timely and politically relevant if it's from the couch of their own home than having to, you know, get their ass to a theater to watch it.
Speaker 2:Wow, you know, so I think that is an asset for a house of dynamite. That had not occurred to me, but I think you may be right there.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 1:You know, as you were saying, the last four spots we go. I certainly go back and forth in my mind. Something that's a big question mark for me, and we've talked about it, is the A24 slot. It certainly feels like the A24 slot is going to go to either one of the Safdie brothers Will it go to Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme, or will it go to Benny Safdie's the Smashing Machine. That rhymes, and at least we've seen the Smashing Machine. Well, we haven't seen it, but people have seen the Smashing Machine and we kind of know what we're dealing with. The film is well-received critically. I'm not going to say it's, you know, hamnet, or One Battle After Another.
Speaker 1:No one's over the moon about it, certainly, but it's received. It's been received positively. It just won the directing award at Venice.
Speaker 1:Controversially yes but which goes to show you that he has the credibility and the support of his peers that the Safdies in general do. The Safdies have never been recognized by the Academy Awards and it's high time that they are. It's just an inevitability and it seems like this is the year where it's going to happen. But since they're not working together and they're separate vehicles, the question remains if the Academy, from going to embracing zero Safdies, are going to embrace both Safdies wholeheartedly. I think that the Smashing Machine has so much going for it that for me, at this particular moment, I feel tempted to say that that's the Safdie slot. Why? Because it's well, both films revolve around a real life subject, but the Mario Supreme is a fictional take on this real life subject, whereas the Smash Machine is not a fictional take. In fact, I think some people say that it's very much like that documentary on the figure Martin McCurr, on the figure Martin McCurr, and so I see that film doing well at the box office, because the last time A24 dipped their toes in was the wrestling drama. The underrated Iron Claw. Yes, which is a very good film, did really well at the box office for them. So I have to suspect that if we're taking another sports biopic, mma fighter, legendary MMA fighter, and the Rock in the lead role, and the Rock's films tend to drive in spectators, tend to drive in audiences. He has had several successful, financially successful films, if not critically successful.
Speaker 1:I have to expect that that film is destined to do well at the box office. Um, aided by this narrative that we have now of oh my god, you gotta watch, you gotta see it. The rock transforms. It's like the rock, like you've never seen it before. That's only going to drive ticket sales, that's only going to drive curiosity. Um, so I expect a very good box office for that movie.
Speaker 1:As we said, it's going to have critical acclaim enough decent critical acclaim. Um, it's on a real life subject and it's not a fictitious take on it. Um, the film is gonna possibly also do well below the line because it seems destined to get an eye for makeup. Um, uh, emily Blunt seems like she can write the coattails of the Dwayne Johnson train and get nominated as well. So I'm seeing this film very similarly as we've talked in a previous episode as Darren Aronofsky's the Whale, which didn't get nominated for Best Picture but missed it just by that much. Yeah, very close, got very close, and on Oscar night it won two of the three awards it was nominated for. So for me that just seems like the obvious spot. That just seems like the obvious spot. You know, I think we're at a disadvantage because no one has seen marty supreme, so no one knows what exactly that's gonna how, what's that's gonna be?
Speaker 2:like, yeah, I agree, I mean they're keeping it under wraps. I would, I would go further and I would say that, among those four spots, because of the films that you have, there's an argument to be made that there is enough room to put a24 twice and to put both safty brothers in um, and that the films that you have, there's an argument to be made that there's enough room to put A24 twice and to put both Safdie brothers in Um, and that the films could be actually incredibly complimentary Um, and that, instead of choosing favorites from their chosen sons, why not just put them both in Um. So that's something that I I definitely think can still happen.
Speaker 1:Well, you know that's a good point, and you know I can see the headline. You know both Safdie Brothers films get into the Best Picture lineup. Finally, but at the same time, like I said, do we really expect the Academy to go from not embracing them at all to embracing them both wholeheartedly for many awards? To me it feels like a big jump. Um, you know, like a gold country, or you know, he broke out a bit with uh worst person in the world and now the next step is even more recognition for sentimental value.
Speaker 1:Those 70 brothers haven't passed through step one yet of being embraced by the academy at any to any extent. So it's a little bit off for me to think that they're all of a sudden going to be embraced to such a degree for these uh ventures. And I also think there's a rumor that you know there's a, there was a rift between them. You know that it's not that they decided to go their own ways because they wanted to explore their individuality with regards, as you know, as filmmakers, but that there was a sort of, you know, sort of rift that happened. And so I think if that is true and you know, who knows if we'll ever find out that that is even more. So why? I think it's weird for them both to land in such a heavy way at the oscars for best picture. So I say that at the most there's one a24 spot um, I don't know, but it's, it's a big question mark.
Speaker 2:yeah, I mean we'll have to see how, how lands, and again, how much money can Smashing Machine pick up? That'll be another big factor.
Speaker 1:Right.
Speaker 1:And then, in terms of Netflix's other film, because we've already mentioned Warner Brothers, their two film, sinners, and One Bad After Another and Neon's two films, sentimental Value, and it Was Just an Accident the other Netflix film is a question mark as well, because they have several contenders.
Speaker 1:Um, you and I have uh heard through the grapevine whispers, uh, that seem legitimate, that Netflix seems poised to pick up the testament of ann lee and give it an oscar campaign for 2025, um, which would only amplify their contenders. Um, but even as of now, it seems like I'm sorry, but it seems like Jay Kelly, despite a mixed reception at Venice, has enough to land in the latter spots of the top 10. Number 10, number nine I'm not saying it's going to be the clear Netflix favorite, but being that it's about the industry and looking at, you know, hollywood superstars through a more complicated lens and the cast, I expect the film to do well at the Golden Globes. I expect the film to get an honor for cast ensemble at the SAG. To me, that just is starting to smell like the kind of film that just is able to manage a number 10, a number nine spot into best picture.
Speaker 2:I mean, I think it's possible. Again, I think that's a film that it's going to depend on where does George Clooney fall in the race. If he's the kind of actor who's going to be able to pick up a globe or a sack for this, it's a very different film. If he's the kind of actor who's only ranking fourth or fifth, then I think the urgency to include the film isn't very high. So that's another one where I think we're sitting and waiting. What is that second Netflix film going to be? I haven't dismissed the idea that Nouveau Vogue can make a comeback. I haven't dismissed the idea that Guillermo del Toro is beloved enough to get Frankenstein in there, like he did for Nightmare Alley.
Speaker 1:I have a hard time seeing Guillermo out of all the Netflix and Tundras. I have a hard time seeing Guillermo pull another Nightmare Alley, a film that does well on the technical side of things and also gets an eye-refreshed picture. I think his ticket into Best Picture again will be something akin to the Shape of water that gets support throughout the above the line categories as well as the below the line categories I think that's completely fair.
Speaker 1:I think that's completely fair, um, but we didn't talk about much about nouveau vague and you know nouveau vague has not, not too dissimilarly from uh, jake kelly has this historical cinematic context right and there was also, I think there's. Interestingly enough, though I didn didn't get picked from France as the official submission. Yes, that is, it was just an accident Right that was a card that I think it could have played.
Speaker 2:That was what I was about to bring up is that it would have been a major card to play, right, but obviously it didn't get selected. But I'm not closing the door on it yet because it is been pretty well received, because it went to can, so again, it's another one. That, to me, is a question mark. Those four spots are really really open at the point at this point right.
Speaker 1:And then another spot, I think, is going to belong to one of the blockbusters. Um, so we talked about you know, uh, so we talked about a possible another netflix spot, wondering who that is. Talked about an a24 slot, possibly both, possibly just one. I think it's just going to be one. What about blockbusters? I think, in the kind of year that we're having, that's so tumultuous, and again, you know, the art seems to be driven by a lot of timeliness and the audiences seem to be driven by the opposite. Um, I don't know that. I see two blockbusters getting into best picture. I mean, I sure it can happen. Um, right now I see one blockbuster and I think it's very clear it's going to be a battle between avatar and wicked, um, to the detriment of wicked. It was just there last year.
Speaker 1:I don't expect that what we're going to see in this new version of wicked is going to be dramatically different from what we saw in the first one, not necessarily in terms of story beats, but in terms of the overall feel of the film. You know, I think that's a big handicap that Wicked has to deal with. Now, you know, we are seeing the part two of the story, the conclusion of it, but we've already kind of been exposed to the kind of tone and feel of the movie. You know, the story beats in Dune part two are very different from the story beats and Dune part one, but the feel is, you know, the the essential feel of the film is similar. It's the same and we saw a big downgrade there from Dune part one to Dune part two and more so the.
Speaker 1:The trend is for these sequels to do less well the second time around than the first time around. Avatar did really well the first one. The second one did a lot less. Um, like cut by a third, I think. Right, I expect wicked. I expect wicked, which had a great showing at the oscars with 10 nominations and only won two of those 10 nominations, the two that were most uh, you know seen, most tailor-made for it to win um. I expect wicked to get less nominations this time around and I think the academy is going to have to choose. Are we going to go with john chu and the conclusion of the story? Are we going to continue being, in a way, somewhat loyal to the james cameron franchise?
Speaker 2:of avatar. No, I completely agree with you, and I would actually complicate that even more. To me, the last four spots are wide open enough that we have to seriously consider the possibility of how many international films can we have. So we already know we have, or we assume we have, sentimental Value and Jafar Panahi's film Can. The lack of competition in my point of view, the lack of competition for quality titles and titles that maybe are not as high in quality but are going to compete based on their merit in terms of how they were able to translate to a wider audience, can it allow for multiple foreign language films beyond two? The secret agent. I don't think the door is closed on no other choice, but I I think that the pendulum swings the opposite way too, which is how many spectacle films can we get? We already have, beyond what you've mentioned.
Speaker 2:Sinners is already in there, right, and had sinners not had that box office, it would not have not be in this position so the fact that we have this us box office behemoth already included could potentially complicate these other films getting in if it weren't possibly a less competitive year.
Speaker 2:So you mentioned Wicked, you mentioned Avatar, but you didn't mention F1. And so if it's going to have all the muscle of Plan B and Apple, there's another title that's going to try to compete for that sort of populist popcorn film spot. And then don't forget that Warner Brothers just said that they're also going to campaign weapons passionately, and that's another film that, again, I can absolutely see that film. In fact, I would actually bet on that film being listed among the Producers Guild Award top 10, where they are unlikely to recognize Jafar Panahi. Now is he going to be able to sort of get that nomination ride, that nomination to an eventual Best Picture nomination at the Oscars? I don't know, but I do see the pendulum swinging in really sort of extreme ways in terms of are we going to go and welcome more films that are spectacle audience friendly, or more films that are more highbrow, intellectual, international cinema friendly, like the Voice of Hinrich Hoppe, for example?
Speaker 1:Right, no, yeah, that's the other point I was going to make that I actually think, moving on from the slots, I think one of the slots I'm pegging it to be the political timeliness of the Voice of Hinrich Hoppe.
Speaker 1:It only won the second place award, I believe, at Venice, it didn't place at Toronto.
Speaker 1:But, again, the timeliness of that subject matter, and if you look at the team behind it, the team behind that movie is huge. I mean, it's a small distributor, watermelon pictures, that does put out good work, um, but the team behind it is fueled to such a degree that I think they're they want to make a statement, right, they want to make a statement with this movie. They want a platform to put a spotlight on this movie, um, in this very, you know, tumultuous time with everything that's going on in Gaza. Uh, they have a bunch of actors, um, who are representing the film, who are pushing the film, and I think that voting block, the actors, voting block is going to be what pushes this movie into a best picture nomination. Um, especially considering, you know, these secondary choices, uh, films getting in for more than one category, films falling by the wayside, these four spots being very open and in any anybody's game. I really feel like the voice of Henry Jobe stands a terrific chance of exploiting that and being able to get into that top 10.
Speaker 2:I completely agree with you. And so again, looking at that PGA list, which is somewhat of a harbinger for what's going to happen at the Oscars or sort of a template for what the base of the Oscars best picture 10 will be, before we start getting, before we start analyzing it and seeing where the weak points are, at the Producers Guild Award you're probably going to see them nominate F1 as the Plan B movie. But Plan B is also involved in the Voice of Hina Rajab. So I would not be shocked at all if the Voice of Hina Rajab makes it into the Oscars top 10 and takes the f1 spot and takes a sort of plan b spot that they they're again, they're really great at promoting their films. So that's the kind of, I think, year we're dealing with where these four last spots could swing extreme into extremes between the choices that voters are going to have, right, I?
Speaker 1:think where I hit a wall is that I don't see more than three studios repeating. Which is already crazy, by the way, right. Exactly. I don't see four studios, I don't see five studios, I see three max. And of those three, it feels like two are done, it feels like Neon is done, and it feels like Warner Brothers is done, done, and so we're left with one we're left with one, if I'm right, and could it be focus features?
Speaker 1:could it be netflix? Could it be a 24, maybe, but it shouldn't be all of them, and so I think certain choices are going to have to be made. Which safty film do we prefer? You know? Which fox features film do we prefer? Which blockbuster do we prefer?
Speaker 1:yeah and also I want to, I want to have enough room to spotlight an important cause, an important film. That, I think, is, you know, of the moment, yeah, and I want to seize the moment, um, and so you know, right now, you know, and there are other films, you know, there are question marks, as we've been mentioning. No other choice. Can neon really juggle a third film into best picture? I highly doubt it. Frankenstein is Guillermo going to pull another Nightmare Alley? I highly doubt it. What else? Weapons Can one of those get in for a third film and have that film be a film like Weapons, which is a very popcorn film? I can't imagine a lot of the foreign base, you know, loving that film. Um, I highly doubt it. Um, uh, it. Can yorgos get in with a modern day yorgos film? That's yet to happen for best picture? I kind of doubt, I kind of doubted.
Speaker 2:So you know, I think, uh, they're gonna have to make certain choices yeah, I completely agree with you and another, another point there being that you know paramount doesn't really have a huge player and Sony Picture Classics looks like they don't have a huge player. Are they going to make a late pickup? No one has picked up Endly yet. Potentially, if someone picks that up, like Sony Picture Classics, they can still campaign that in their favor.
Speaker 1:Even though I do think that film in particular is a bit more divisive. Yeah, absolutely For audiences.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I agree, but because of the low year that it is, it's something to look out for. And then are we essentially saying that Rental Family can't survive? You know, not placing at TIFF for the People's Choice Award. Are we saying that Searchlight is going to miss Right?
Speaker 1:Are they going to have the rare miss and not get in at all this year? I certainly think that that will happen. I think Rental Family's best option is screenplay. I think the TIFF loss and not placing at all made it so that that is sort of the fate.
Speaker 2:That's something to look out for, yeah, we'll see.
Speaker 1:So if I had to come up with 10 Again, this will be reflected in our Oscar prediction chart. So check that out when you get a chance. In no particular order, there are six films that I feel very confident about, and then there's, as we've been saying, four open spots, the six being in no particular order Hamnet, sinners, one Battle After Another, sentimental Value it Was Just an Accident and A House of Dynamite. I feel very, very confident about those. We have those four spots that are head scratchers right now. I'm going to say that the a24 slot is going to go to the smashing machine that's seven, that the blockbuster spot is going to go to wicked for good that's eight.
Speaker 1:Um, I'm going to say that this I'm going to hedge my bets as of now that the other uh studio that's going to get a second film in it's going to be netflix film in is going to be Netflix and it's going to be a film like Jake Kelly, because it's going to resonate with a large portion of the academy. So that's going to be my ninth pick, and then my 10 is going to be the Voice of Henry Job. I just think it's a very, very of the moment. Film of the moment, statement, and, and it's going to get a push from those that are behind it. So it's going to be a surprise to many Watermelon Pictures being known for Best Picture, but that's the kind of world that we're living in right now. We're destined to have surprises of that nature. So I think right now I'm thinking, that those are the 10 that we're predicting.
Speaker 2:I don't think that's bad at all. I think that's a solid place to start with, again the kind of year it is. Just watch out for a few surprises. Who knows if one of those few New York premieres really take off, or if Marty Supreme really takes off, and then you know, if we're talking about the PGA possibly being a template for what the Oscars are going to have to work with. I don't think it's beyond the realm of possibility for a film like K-pop to really end up being more in the discussion that we're pegging it to be because of the success that it is, the runaway success, that it is Same thing with weapons and F1, but I think that's a solid place to start.
Speaker 1:Right For Best Director. I also feel pretty confident about four spots, and it's really that last spot that has me questioning who can get it. In no particular order, I feel that Ryan Kugler for Sinners, joaquin Trier for Sentimental Value PTA, for One Battle After Another, and Jafar Panahi for it Was Just an accident. Um are the four that I feel confident about, and it's really that last spot. Now, who makes most sense in that last spot? Yes, it is Chloe Zhao for Hamnet, because of its front runner status. Um, because of the acclaim, it's a huge Oscar contender. However, remember that the best director category is the most fickle. You know, that branch, you know, doesn't care about rules. They're going to vote for who, they want to vote for the filmmaker they want to support, and there are patterns that reveal that they take certain things into account. So the fact that Chloe Zhao was just there in 2020, not too long ago and that she won, and that in the interim between Nomadland and Hamnet, there's only been one other film, eternals, which disappointed critically and financially, even though I quite like Eternals, I think that that's something that could really handicap her spot here and could make it viable to someone like, for example, catherine Bigelow, who some would say, or certain certain filmmakers, I think, will say that she's waited longer between her film, um uh, the Hurt Locker, and up till now, obviously, she was overlooked for, uh, detroit, oh, zero Dark Thirty. Excuse me, she was overlooked for Zero Dark Thirty, famously Um, and so they might think that she's waited longer, um, in between both films, um, and they might want to give that spot to her.
Speaker 1:If Josh Safdie makes an impression with Marty Supreme, I, you know, you could see Josh Safdie figuring into this director race. Um, I don't see Benny Safdie figuring into this race. Obviously, we've been seeing how the director's branch, as of late, is very iffy about nominating actors turned directors. I think that's something that's not going to help. Josh Park Chan-wook has never been recognized by the Academy, but he's never been recognized full stop, not just in the best director category but the best foreign language film category, and so, in a way, he does make sense in this list. However, again, I don't see them going from zero part-time who to a major nomination best director, um, uh, even though, again, it's crazy that he hasn't been recognized. I don't see guillermo pulling uh, again, this is just.
Speaker 1:This film is not the shape of water. I don't see it doing well across the board. Um, I don't think john m chu, for wicked for good is their thing, um, to get an eye for best director, especially in this competition, you know. So really, I feel like those four spots to me seem pretty locked and loaded. Oh, your goals? We didn't talk about your goals. I mean again, he was just. Again, he was just there.
Speaker 1:Right, he was just there and, based on the competition this year, it seems very likely that he's not going to win for Begonia, right? So I think that's going to factor in. Do we want to nominate Jorgos when we know he's not going to win for this? He was just here, you know. He's been recognized enough for now. Let's take a break.
Speaker 1:So I really see those four as locks. And that last spot is the surprising one. Um, could we have a really cool year where we now made two female directors? Since 2020 I think 2020 was the only year it's happened we now made two female filmmakers in the top five? Yes, I, I think we can, but it would be at the expense of someone like Josh Safdie. Can that happen? I think it can, but considering that, I think those four are locked and loaded. We only have room for one female filmmaker, and so they're going to have to choose which female filmmaker do they want to spotlight, right? So if you had to pick five, if I had to pick five, no particular order, it'd be Ryan Coogler, joachim Trier, jafar Panahi, pta. And I'm tempted to say that they're going to go and give Catherine Bigelow her nomination. No. Chloe Zhao no.
Speaker 2:Chloe Zhao, and so Chloe Zhao might Argo her way into Best Picture, sort of Remember how Ben Affleck got stumped for Best Director, and then everyone said that we have to give Argo Best Picture.
Speaker 1:Right, it could be that may happen.
Speaker 2:I mean, the list makes a lot of sense right now. We'll see if this stands over the next few months, where movies are going to have the challenge of well, what do mainstream audiences think of the films? I will say that the one note that I would make in terms of year five and some of the movies you're talking about here is that it is pretty heavy on the number of nominees who could potentially not have any sort of actors recognized in their film. So I don't think any of the actors are a guarantee for Sinners.
Speaker 2:And so that may make, for example, ryan coogler in for director with a film that doesn't have any acting nominations, and the same could happen for katherine bigelow right, and it's likely going to happen to jafar panahi right. He probably will not get any of the actors in for the film that's a really good so that's something to look out, because, directors, one thing that they are definitely going to judge the films by, and the movies that they decide to nominate, the directing jobs they decide to nominate is by performance. Yeah.
Speaker 2:And so that could end up being a factor. And so, even if you extend this talk to films like whether it's a blockbuster like F1, or a more niche international film like Voice of Hinrya Jha, the fact that these movies don't have performances attached to them that are going to be, or are definitely going to be, an eye for Oscars, that may end up being a factor as to which film ends up making the final five and which doesn't.
Speaker 1:I think I think you bring up a great point and I certainly think that that's that's something worth thinking about and it's certainly making me question. Maybe you're right and maybe I'm wrong. Yeah, that that really the, that final spot is going to go to someone like Chloe.
Speaker 2:Zhao, it could, but even then, just it's something that you have to be aware of because, um, some of the other alternatives whether it's Guillermo del Toro or no other choice they don't necessarily stand great chances for acting either. And so, if you look at it that way, if I told you to make a list where four of the five films have to have performances be nominated, you may come up with a different list. So we'll see what happens, right?
Speaker 1:And I also feel that you know those last one or two spots that are highly contentious could reveal that a surprise nominee gets in, like Kleber Mendoza for the Secret Agent yeah, that a surprise nominee gets in, like Kleber Mendoza for the Secret Agent yeah, you know, sort of, you know, possibly Chloe Zhao couldn't, couldn't necessarily, you know, overtake Catherine Bigelow or vice versa, and then someone that benefits from it is someone like the Secret Agent yeah, could be. Yeah, okay. Best actor Okay. This is a fight to the death. This category is stacked, stacked. It's a monster of a category, and which is great because we have so many great leading actor performances. Hasn't been like this in a while?
Speaker 1:I'd say but I will say get ready, because really big players will be snubbed.
Speaker 2:Yeah, we're revisiting the territory of 2013, in a year that saw the late Robert Redford not get nominated, tom Hanks not get nominated, oscar Isaac not get nominated, so this is certainly 2013 territory. Yeah, be ready.
Speaker 1:A bunch of heartbreaking snubs and in a way you and I have been talking about it it's hard to see. It's an odd scenario because while there's so many contenders, it's also hard to see the winner in this category. That is an absolute killer, yeah, which makes predicting the top five even harder. I don't think anyone is in a place that feels like they're a guaranteed winner right now. Most people are assuming and they would be right to assume that timothy chalamet for marty supreme is going to have a big impact, and why that makes sense is because timothy chalamet is coming off from being nominated last year and another year in a lesser film. He would not be nominated. The Academy doesn't like to nominate so back to back. If they just celebrated you last year, his performance is undoubtedly going to be compared to what he gave last year playing Bob Dylan. He's playing another historical figure here. It's his third nomination and lead. If it were to happen and so theoretically it wouldn't happen he would not get nominated and this film would do less well than A Complete Unknown.
Speaker 1:However, if the opposite happens and that's what most people are predicting right now that Marty Supreme does really well with the Academy and he does manage to get that back-to-back nomination at such a young age, having three lead actor nominations he's going to win Because in a way, he's proven to his peers that he's the real deal, that he can do no wrong, that he can do anything, that he can play anyone and he's sort of putting his money where his mouth is in terms of his sack speech last year you know, I want to be one of the greats, right.
Speaker 1:I mean to have that kind of you know success with the Academy at such a young age, playing this diverse of these diverse parts. I think that the Academy is going to finally accept yes, we can give him the win here. He's proven us that he's got what it takes Right, and so that's the expectation, but no one's seen it right so no one knows, right.
Speaker 1:Um, like I said, I think the film has to be very good to great right for him to get nominated, right the bar is very high right, but that his biggest tackle, his, his biggest obstacle, is going to be the nomination. Yeah because if Because if he does get nominated, expect him to win, right. Because if they're nominating him this soon right after last year and going through the Timothee Chalamet tour of being Bob Dylan, and they're doing it again at this age, it's because they're ready to give him the win.
Speaker 2:I completely agree with you, but I also think that him becoming the de facto favorite to win actor has a lot to do with why Marty Supreme, the film, stands where it does in all the other races and why people are considering a strong contender for director and screenplay and technical categories and best picture. And so the issue is if Marty Supreme, the issue is if Marty Supreme, which will not be unveiled until December if Marty Supreme comes out there and lands like Babylon, does you know? Then everything gets complicated, Because I don't know if they're going to give Timothee Chalamet a back-to-back nomination. Even if he does somehow manage a back-to-back nomination, I think it takes him out of the win by the sheer quality of the film or what the reception is to the film. So that'll be interesting to watch because, as you said, if you take out Timothee Chalamet, it's really tough to pinpoint who. The winner could be Right and I will go further, though.
Speaker 1:I would say if the film is not great and it has a sort of more mixed reception or just and you and I were talking about it it's it's hard to it's hard to think that the film is going to be received poorly by critics, because the Safdie brothers films usually aren't received poorly by critics. Now, I might not be unanimously loved, but I I have a hard time. I would bet against it's going to be poorly received by critics.
Speaker 2:We'll look at Ari Aster. You would think that Ari.
Speaker 1:Aster is a critical darling.
Speaker 2:You would think Ari Aster is a critical darling right, but then.
Speaker 1:But there has been the trajectory there. You know, with every film, and then especially Bo's Afraid, there's been a trajectory there Okay. But there hasn't been that here. So to assume that it's going to be poorly received, especially with the status that the Safdie brothers have at this current moment, it seems a little bit, you know, like that's not going to happen. But I will say that it still might not be the academy's thing.
Speaker 1:You know, as the safeties have proven, they haven't necessarily proven that they're the academy's thing yeah um, and I will say that benny's film, many of the sort of commentary there's been, commentary that it's, you know, a safer version of a safety film. If you even want to call it a safty film, you know it's sort of a familiar, safe, you know kind of conventional biopic, academy friendly. It's exactly exactly. I expect for marty supreme to be more of a wild sort of exploration of this character. I expect it to have a little bit more of the safty energy that we're used to um, which makes it a gamble if it's going to be something that they're going to embrace. So that's a big question. Mark Timothee Chalamet. I don't know how to solve it. I wish we got some sort of leakage as to what's going on with this movie.
Speaker 1:What are people thinking? Everyone is mum. Jeremy Allen White had the film premiered at Telluride and I got a decent reception but almost unanimous praise for his performance. You know this, you know possession, sort of performance that we hear about most years. You know, very academy friendly, he disappears into the Boss, and so he would seem on paper like a great candidate for this category. But what I really don't like is that it's seeming more and more likely that he's going to be the film's lone nomination, and so Unless it makes a bunch of money, unless it makes a bunch of money, then I think it's not just, I think it's a best picture contender Right, which, you know, fox doesn't have one yet. I mean yeah.
Speaker 1:So it could be, but considering what we heard from Telluride, that it's more of a sober take on Springsteen. It's not this. You know, give me the greatest hits and, and and have you know the sort of bohemian rhapsody of it, all singing songs that I love to. You know that I'm very well aware of playing nonstop. It's more of a sober take. It's taking a very particular chapter in his life, when Springsteen suffered from depression, and so I think it's a darker, moodier tale and I think it's going to be not what audiences expect from a Springsteen biopic. Um, I think some audiences might be surprised when they see the film that it's a more sobering take on it on his, on his life story. Um, I think that could affect its box office as well. So at the moment, to me it reads like a lone nominee and that's very dangerous territory.
Speaker 1:Yeah, um, these sort of uh, you know the the academy tends to, you know, nominate these musicians, um, uh, these real life iconic figures, but usually, if you look at it, they tend to be packaged with their, with their best picture. You know, uh, status right, um, and right now I don't see that happening. So he would be a low nominee. I think that's dangerous territory. And also his career trajectory. Right now he's been very much awarded for the Bears. That kind of come into account. Actors might mostly know him from the Bear you know, and not necessarily be able to pinpoint a lot of you know his filmography apart or his career apart from the bear, and that's okay.
Speaker 1:Look at Rami Malek. But Rami Malek had a best picture nominee and Rami Malek's film made a billion dollars in the box office. Two very big differences. Yeah, will uh Springsteen's film reach those heights? That's not feeling like that to me, right? Um, uh, michael B Jordan is in a genre film. Um, that I is a shoe in for best picture. I think he'd be recognized as a producer for that film. But if you see the film, as good as Michael B Jordan is and as old as he is, a nomination it just doesn't feel meaty enough for them to nominate in lead actor. You and I had that feeling correct yeah.
Speaker 1:I felt the same way. Yeah, and so you know, I'm feeling that as much as people are thinking right now that Michael B Jordan's going to factor in, I think he's not going to factor into the best actor. I expect him to get a SAG, I expect him to get a Globe, but I think he's going to miss out on the Oscar nom for lead or for lead actor.
Speaker 1:I expect him to be snubbed, right. I expect it to be a big headline, right, exactly. Um, I do think he will um get nominated as a producer for the film. I do think that he, you know, he'll still have an oscar nomination, just not as an actor, right, um, I don't think it's going to be enough for them that he's playing two parts. You know there's, if you see the film, there's no oscar moment scene. Um, that is usually required to gain a best lead actor nomination. Right, we've got Dwayne Johnson, who's had enormous headlines past Venice, post Venice. But Dwayne Johnson has a lot of handicaps as well, in that his career is mostly not critically revered work. You know it's a lot of poor films. There's a lot of films whose main objective is, you know, financial success At the box office. He's made a name out of that, but I think actors by and large don't think of him as an actor. That is really putting the craft first and typically that'd be, I would say, a deal breaker. Yeah.
Speaker 1:But the problem is that he is playing a real life figure, so it's a big stretch. I mean Even though some actors might say that it's not enough of a stretch. Right.
Speaker 1:Because he's coming from the world of, you know, wrestling and trying to get into the world of MMA. There's just not enough of a of a leap. A leap there, yeah, in a way making him an ideal candidate for that role. He does fit the prototypical, you know sort of drenched in makeup, kind of transformation, narrative driven, you know headlines kind of spot. Yeah, that's the best actor race, gets into the best actor race. Sort of very sympathetic, sensitive performance, right, 824 is going to try, is going to you know headlines kind of spot, it gets the best actress, gets into the best actress, sort of very sympathetic, sensitive performance.
Speaker 2:A24 is going to try to whale this, for sure, for sure, 100%. The question is are they going to be able to get away with it? Because I do. I strongly believe that every individual that gets nominated and comes to the cusp of winning, or even wins, they do have the filmography to back it up. And I think everyone talks about Brendan Fraser in the Whale, but he put in years of work in films like Gods and Monsters and Crash and School Ties, and so Brendan Fraser had always been an actor that people pointed out from a young age as an actor to watch. That has not been the case for Dwayne Johnson. In fact, he didn't really necessarily even come from film, so it'll be interesting to see what happens there.
Speaker 2:Um, that said, you look at someone like Lady Gaga and she was able to be nominated right for um. A Star is Born right, um, and she's not an actor either. She doesn't come from film. Um, so it could. It could turn out that way as well, but then I I would. I would expect the smashing machine to be a best picture movie.
Speaker 1:Right, yeah, yeah, exactly. I think that if Dwayne Johnson gets in, it's because it's a best picture movie, um, and I think, I think that the smashing machine is unlike a star is born, for several reasons, you know, it doesn't have that kind of historical context of the of the Academy embracing that story. A star is born, yeah, not a prized property, and the film got several nominations, not three or four, like eight, right, um, so it's a little bit different. But, uh, certainly right now I think he's looking very attractive for the spot, right, um. I don't know if that he'll be derailed. I don't know if it'll be enough that his career is sort of full of. I mean, honestly, there there's very little to no bright spot on his resume. Some people are big fans of Pain and Gain, I'm not, um, but even if you just take that film, that's all you got.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean he did say that Steven Spielberg called him and congratulated him on how much he loved San Andreas. Oh, but it's still. I mean, it isn't. No, no, no.
Speaker 1:So so I feel like just based on filmography he would not get in, and I know that some people might not believe us, but they do take that into account they do take into account what's the work you've put out. You know, because their you know, their nomination is sort of you know, in recognition for everything that they've done so far.
Speaker 1:Right, exactly, you know, in recognition for everything that they've done so far. Right, exactly, a seal of approval in a way. And so let's see Leo, I think, is having a very big moment right now with the raves from one battle after another. He's certainly getting raves for it, even though I wouldn't say it's the performance that's most being Lauded. Lauded, but it's, I would say second, yeah, he really got snubbed for a terrific performance from killers of the flower moon. Could that factor in that he was snubbed?
Speaker 2:well, I also think he was the antagonist and that's true moon. And here he's, the anti-hero of one battle yeah, and we've heard that it's terrific work.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and then if one battle ends up being, uh, one of PTA's more heavily nominated films, I would expect the lead actor of that film, especially if he's being played by Leonardo DiCaprio, to factor into the five.
Speaker 2:I absolutely agree, and so far it's the only film that you've mentioned, I mean other than Sinners.
Speaker 1:Really, that is a surefire best picture movie, right, exactly, and I think that matters. I think that what complicates leo a little bit for me is that in a way, he is that slot that we're talking about, which is the movie star slot. We love him. We can nominate him whenever we can. He's in another great film, because leo only makes great films finds a little bit of contention when you put someone like George Clooney into the mix. George Clooney has been away from the Oscar scene for a while, but you can't argue that they dislike George Clooney. They like George Clooney. He had a great run during the 2000s, right Now, repeatedly for actor. He doesn't have a lead actor Oscar, interestingly enough, right, he only has, weirdly enough, a supporting actor Oscar, and you don't associate George Clooney as a supporting actor.
Speaker 1:No, you associate him as a head, as a headliner, um, but he only has an Oscar for Syriana, for supporting actor. I think that helps his chances here to get an eye for lead. I think it's a film that clearly is tailor made for George Clooney. It's sort of self-reflexive sort of meta, right, you know, they might appreciate that. They might appreciate that. You know, wink, wink, you know George Clooney always plays himself kind of thing, right, um, and so I have a hard time seeing a list with both Leonardo DiCaprio and George Clooney. Yeah, you know, two mega stars. Right.
Speaker 1:Into the best acting category, I would say. But I don't know. I also feel that because of Jay Kelly and what it's about and who George Clooney is playing, it's sort of irresistible to sort of voters.
Speaker 2:Actors love films about actors playing actors and so, jay Kelly, you can't sleep on it. I think we also mentioned the idea that, the same way that we don't have a great Oscar winner so far without Timothee Chalamet as the winner from last year's sag for best actor, we have terrible choices for who wins the actor at sag, and the only good choice really to win the sag actor and we've been saying it for a while and this is really going to be key for their campaign is george clooney, right, who does not have a sag on the acting side, on the individual actor side, from the Screen Actors Guild Award. Remember that year that he won the Oscar for Syriana. He lost that prize to Paul Giamatti for Cinderella man, and so that's going to be his answer is can he win the SAG?
Speaker 2:And if he wins the SAG and gets nothing else, that would probably be more than enough to get him into the five. But I agree with you Is there enough room for those two huge pillars of the industry and of you know, the Academy Awards Is there. It's really important not to get so obsessed with how the race looks at this moment.
Speaker 1:You really have to look 10 steps ahead. So you have to look at, you know, when the film is released, what's that release going to be like? When the SAG nominations come out, what are going to be the nominees when the Globe nominations come out because the voters still look at that stuff. You know what are the nominations going to be. So you have to not be focused on September and October, but be focused on next year January and February. Yeah, because that's what's going to determine who gets nominated and what doesn't get nominated. And so it's really good practice to think, okay, so what is the SAG? What is my best bet as to what the SAG is going to look like? Yeah, what is my best bet as to what the globe is going to look like?
Speaker 1:And start using markers like that to help make your predictions.
Speaker 2:And to paint different scenarios of what could happen.
Speaker 1:Right Exactly, and so Jesse Plemons is a big question mark for both of us.
Speaker 2:Because, speaking of which, I mean again, we do not have a SAG winner, unless they're going to go back to back on Timothee Chalamet. And if that's the case, here's an actor who has never been spotlighted by the SAG and it's not necessarily an Oscar Academy friendly role. Maybe it's quite aggressive and possibly quite violent, but he doesn't have any sort of nomination from the SAG. So I mean, he sounds like a good bet to possibly get his first.
Speaker 1:Yes, that's true, even though you could argue that maybe he didn't get his first SAG because there are more fans in the Oscar voting body than there are necessarily in the SAG voting committee, which changes every year. But this is a big question mark for me because I've heard terrific things about his performance. So it's never about quality and Jesse Plemons is a tremendous actor. But again, yorgos hasn't had success with his modern day films, having luck in the acting races, despite terrific performances from actors. It would be a category shift, going from supporting to lead.
Speaker 1:For Jesse Plemons that's good, that's an asset, that's a pattern that we see often. But actors just really stacked. Put it alongside these other bigger heavy hitter, you know films, um, like One Battle After Another, um, like, uh, sinners, like possibly Mario Supreme or Jay Kelly. I just feel like it's a performance that many voters are going to respect and appreciate, but they're going to love the other movies more and they're going to respond more deeply to the other films and that could affect where Jesse Plemons lands here in best actor. I think it'd be a different story if he'd never been nominated and this was his first nomination, his first possible nomination, given that he already has and the kind of role it is and the kind of film that we know we're dealing with now and the competition he's facing, I just see him as falling off here and not making the cut.
Speaker 2:I mean, I think that's interesting. I definitely think it's possibly the most psychologically scarring choice that the Academy will have to will have an option to select Right.
Speaker 1:And then um, we've got Brendan Fraser, who got great notices for rental family, but I don't think that that's going to factor into the acting races. I would say he got the best notices in terms of the ensemble, but as one that I think is a no-brainer and two that I think is a heavy spoiler and the no-brainer one is Wagner Mora who has a super critically acclaimed performance in the Secret Agent.
Speaker 1:We've seen the Secret Agent. He's phenomenal in this film. I certainly am prepared for Wagner Mora to be the critic's favorite for the Secret Agent and I think the foreign voting body is going to get that nomination. It's going to make that happen. It just as you see the film and you can see the work. Wagner Mora has enough here to absolutely make the top five and I think he will. I feel really confident about him actually.
Speaker 2:I mean, I looking at the people who are in contention, I don't see anyone necessarily taking the critics darling spot away from him, right and so, um, I see wagon mora's being safe, and that just makes less spots.
Speaker 1:The week that we have for best actor and the other person I want to bring a lot of attention to is ethan hawke, who got snubbed quite recently, um, in 2018, for first reformed for lead actor. I think that that snub has only increased in. You know, regret that they snubbed him for that, that performance. I think he's getting stellar reviews, um, for this, uh, this film.
Speaker 1:I think he's playing a real life figure and a figure that was involved in the entertainment industry as well, which I think is going to matter, and to me, it just smells like the kind of spoiler that's destined to happen. He would be a lone nominee here. I think that decreases the chances of someone like Jeremy Allen White being the lone nominee spot here, especially when someone you have someone of Ethan Hawke's stature. He's never been nominated for a lead actor Oscar. Surprisingly enough, he's only ever been nominated for a supporting actor, and to me, sony Picture Classics is behind the film and they know how to get their acting contenders in, and so I think that to me, ethan Hawke for Blue Moon seems like a very, very, very likely possibility.
Speaker 2:I mean, you can't sleep on it. I think it's a dark horse right now, but you certainly can't sleep on it.
Speaker 1:And then I would say that someone like um uh, Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams had terrific reviews for Train Dreams, but I do think that it suffers from being among many of Netflix's choices and I think, in terms of priority, that's not going to be their top priority and it's crazy that Joel Edgerton has yet to be nominated. In another year I think he would have a much better chance of getting in. I think actors are eager to nominate him. I do expect him to possibly make an appearance in the circuit for an award or two to be a nominee, but I don't think this is the race that he can crack because of the competition.
Speaker 2:I mean, the competition is just crazy. But there could potentially be room for a quieter performance like his, but it would come at the expense of another, more internalized performance, I'm afraid. So I'm not sure you can have. He really would need the critics, the critics' favorite spot, which Wagner I think has sewn up right now. But I don't think that you can sleep on this one either. And if you look at guys like Channing Tatum and even someone like Russell Crowe, I mean they're going to need audiences to come through in a big way. But if either of those movies make money, either of those guys, because they are based on real individuals, they have an advantage. Um, and you know we speak about wagner mora, someone who could potentially, if they had, they probably are going to have enough um support from critics to to maybe list the actor a couple of times, is libyan, gun for no other choice right, but again, I I expect there to be one spot among the five for an actor who is not selected at the screen actors guild award.
Speaker 2:possibly not even at the golden globes, you know, not even at the bafta, maybe to still generate enough support to get a nomination in there. And I think that that certainly helps a more international actor, wagner being the favorite, but Lee Byung-un, you know, if that film does pick up momentum, it's certainly a threat to possibly leapfrog Wagner more.
Speaker 1:So that's something to look out for also Right and you mentioned a lot the possibility of Daniel Day-Lewis.
Speaker 2:I mean, how can you ever? You know, Daniel Day-Lewis is just so respected and so esteemed that you can never, you can never count him out. And so if, after that New York premiere, the Daniel Day-Lewis film takes off or everyone agrees it's, it's a fantastic performance. Again, I think he can easily take the spot from both Leo and George Clooney because of the kind of reputation that he has.
Speaker 1:Right. I just think that you're right. You can never mess with the great Daniel Day-Lewis. However, this is a first time filmmaker, you know. I don't think it's a filmmaker that the industry or the award, you know, the Oscar voting body, feels, you know, has proven their metal. Yet he's known, obviously, obviously, as being his son and certainly the trailer looks very interesting. We don't know what the reception's going to be like, but I just don't know that. I see it right now him breaking out for a first-time filmmaker's ambitious film.
Speaker 1:Yeah, no it could be, and I think that's why we didn't see it, for example, at Venice, and we're seeing it at New York, a place like New York.
Speaker 2:I think it's completely possible, but I, like I said, I just don't think that Danny DeLuis can get in whenever he wants. I think, so I think that that's something that I wouldn't, I wouldn't, I would never dismiss.
Speaker 1:And Russell Crowe was getting some notices from Nuremberg.
Speaker 2:Yeah, but again I don't think that landed as hard as it needed to Again, if audiences come back and resuscitate that movie along with Roofman, then I think both actors are well-liked enough. I mean, channing Tatum has never been nominated before, and so if you're asking voters to consider, am I going to nominate Jeremy Allen White for the first time.
Speaker 2:Dwayne Johnson for the first time. Roof man makes enough money. You're going to. You're going to consider right, you know who you're going to give that first nomination to, first Right. Um, and same thing with Russell is if, if, if Russell, because it is a real life figure, you know. If that movie does make enough money to push itself back into a larger awards conversation, I would totally expect him to say, well, ethan Hawke maybe picked up these nominations and Crowe maybe picked up a Golden Globe nomination. I expect him to say, well, which movie is more timely right now and which historical figure do I want to spotlight more? Do not be surprised that Nuremberg comes up on top in that decision.
Speaker 1:Right, and then I think, lastly, I'll just mention someone that I think you're pretty excited to watch, which is Will Arnett's performance, and is's this thing on that's another New York premiere.
Speaker 2:Right, you got to watch out for that one. It looks like a really sensitive performance from Will Arnett and it also gives him an opportunity to do something really different. So, for example, we talk about who can win the SAG and again just the uber competitive year that it is. You know, remember when the SAG nominated Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back. That's something that could totally happen for Will Arnett in this film that I think he takes a lot from his own life on and he was responsible for writing it, and even something like original screenplays is not completely sewn up yet. So definitely keep an eye out for this film. If it has a positive reception, you could be hearing more about his name at a Golden Globe or even a SAG nomination.
Speaker 1:Right, and I just don't like that. Bradley Cooper has been recognized enough. His last two films were so well received by the Academy. I just have to think that you know this sort of stepping away from you know it's a different film from Bradley Cooper, one you wouldn't expect, absolutely Feels to me. The energy I'm getting is you know they're going to wait and give it a break.
Speaker 2:It could be it's Searchlight, though. So again, you can never count out Searchlight, right.
Speaker 1:And Tonya 2 is incredible in Kiss of the Spider Woman. But this is just such a stack list that I think it's very unlikely for him to break in even though he would be worthy as a breakthrough role. It's tough, it's a really, really, really tough category and right now, of our five, I'm going to say, because I just don't see a winner at this moment, which again is paradoxical to what we're talking about there's so many contenders I'm going to say that Timothee Chalamet for Marty Supreme, because we need a winner.
Speaker 2:No winner, this year Only nominees.
Speaker 1:I'm going to say Wagner Mora for the Secret Agent I think he's, I think I see him as a lock. I think Leo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, I think Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, and I think I'm going to go with Dwayne Johnson for the Smashing Machine. The person I'm leaving out is George Clooney, which is very weird, but and Jeremy Allen White, and Jeremy Allen White, but I'm giving the lone spot instead to Ethan Hawke. Yeah.
Speaker 2:I mean, it's a very solid list. Again, the problem is that you have two or three people that can get each spot, whether it's the real life figure, whether it's the industry veteran, whether whether it's the industry veteran, whether it's the first time nominee the critics darling, I will say, the one individual we didn't talk about. That again you have to look out for. But if the campaign was smart, they would probably shift him down category shift.
Speaker 1:But Paul Meskel, if he stays in lead for Amnit again, then I would really change things and I'd put him in.
Speaker 2:I would make the argument again where, if? Because Jesse Plemons does not have an individual acting nomination on the film side and he stands a great chance of getting his first SAG nomination. That goes the same for Paul Meskel right, who has already been nominated for After Sun but has yet to have a film acting nomination with the SAG, I think that's a terrific point and right now I'm betting that he's going to be numb.
Speaker 1:He's going to be a contender in the supporting actor field, but if he goes lead, I see him getting in and maybe he wants um. Because? Well, because we need a winner, and at least you're right we do need to win. You know, george Clooney has an Oscar. Uh, leo DiCaprio has an Oscar. Wagner Moore I don't think can win for that, for a foreign performance at this particular moment. Dwayne Johnson I don't think can win for his first nomination in a career. That's just not enough.
Speaker 2:If Marty blows up, maybe then you can see. Paul Maskell. But if Marty does its job, then Timothee Chalamet should, in theory, get a win before Paul Maskell having been nominated several years before.
Speaker 1:Okay, and the last category that we're going to cover today is the best actors category.
Speaker 2:What is the opposite of a bloodbath? What? Is that. What is the opposite of that?
Speaker 1:Right. So the best actors category this year is a dearth, yes, a huge dearth, a blood dearth, and so the exact opposite of the best actor race. Um, and so the exact opposite of the best actor race. We have not too many contenders and many of them have big cons. So, really, let's, let's, let's map this out for a little. For a second, the there's only two locks here, and that's jesse buckley for hamnet and reyna tor Rains for a sentimental Valley. Um, I would say that Jesse Buckley is the front runner. I think there's no way I haven't seen the film, but I think there's no way that Jesse Buckley loses us. I think it's going to be a performance. It's going to resonate with many members of the Academy. I think the success of the film that the film is having is being so synonymously tied into jesse buckley's powerhouse performance. It's not her first nomination, it's a category shift, the nomination is a lock, but I think this is absolutely her year and she's the front runner the only issue is if it would peak too early.
Speaker 2:Right, that's it.
Speaker 1:Right, renata Narensvita is terrific in her film, absolutely terrific. She's a surefire nominee. I don't think she can beat Jessie Buckley. And then it gets tough. Let's see Rose Byrne. We saw her performance at Sundance. She is terrific in this film. She's great, you know. It's a very this film. She's great, you know. It's a very demanding part. It's a very demanding role. She pulls it off effortlessly, authentically, with a lot of feeling. But it's not a film that I imagine voters are going to be crazy about.
Speaker 1:I don't think voters are going to love it Right? It has this safty energy to it. It's the most safty to love it. It has this Safdie energy to it. It's the most Safdie of the Safdie films this year.
Speaker 1:Let's put it that way. Right now that's what it seems like. It has the Safdie energy. It makes sense because the writer is a frequent collaborator of the Safdie brothers and is also the director's husband or partner. I just I know that the film is not going to play for most Academy members or for a large portion of the Academy, of the voter, of the acting voter block, for example. Would I be surprised if she misses a SAG nomination? No, I wouldn't be, I think, to her benefit. I think Rose Byrne is a very respected actor I think she has had a terrific career.
Speaker 1:she's an incredibly talented uh actor and I think voters are going to want to reward her with recognition. If there's space and there's certainly space here um, and like I said, you can watch that film and, no matter how you feel about it, you know that it's a demanding part that she pulls off perfectly, um, uh, but I'm unsure about how the movie's gonna play and I feel a similar thing, a similar thing with a sort of twin project here with Jennifer Lawrence and Die my Love, which is a film that I really like, that I saw at Cannes. But I know voters, many voters, will not like that movie and, unlike Rose Byrne, jennifer Lawrence has had her recognition, several nominations, an Oscar. So in that particular battle I see Rose Byrne edging out Jennifer Lawrence. But even then I question how much voters are going to respond to the material.
Speaker 1:You've got Emma Stone in Bugonia, a very praised performance, but similarly she's already been recognized several times by the Academy and she just recently won an Oscar for a Yorgos Lanthimos film. Is there going to be a desire, an urgency, to nominate her again in this category? I think she benefits greatly from her competition. I think it's certainly from what we've heard, a standout part, a standout performance, but there's no urgency here. Will they want to give that space instead to someone that hasn't been here before? Right, julia Roberts, after the Hunt, had a very disappointing premiere at Venice, despite good reviews for her particular performance. I think that Julia Roberts needed a well-reviewed film to factor in here, and so I still see her as being a player in the Golden Globe and SAG categories, but I don't see her making it for this film being a lone nominee. If we're talking about lone nominees, I think they would prefer the performance and the performance of Rose Byrne in If I had Legs, I'd Kick you.
Speaker 2:Yeah, the film would have to stage like a huge comeback at this point, which is still possible, just unlikely.
Speaker 1:I think it's unlikely. Tessa Thompson suffers from being in a film that I think Prime Video, that Amazon, is going to rush into Prime Video. I don't think that that's going to get a big campaign. Sidney Sweeney got a big boost from Toronto with Christie directed by the great David Michaud, but reviews have been mixed and I think Sydney Sweeney's sort of polarizing figure at the moment. I'm not sure that the Academy is ready to recognize her in the lead actress category this year of all years.
Speaker 1:To be fair, though, she got great mentions Her performance was unanimously applauded, even though the film overall has a very mixed reception.
Speaker 2:But again, you know there's another actor that can possibly figure in in both the Globe and the SAC. The question is I agree with you.
Speaker 1:I expect her to figure into both of those Right and I will say that this category is in desperate need and we've talked about this before is in desperate need of an actor who's playing a real-life figure. If you look back several years, the pattern has held for a substantial amount of years that there should be a performance, at least one, from an actress really in every category, but in Best Actress there should be at least one performance that is an actor playing a real-life figure.
Speaker 2:You could pitch technically the Jesse Buckley performance I don't think Possibly.
Speaker 1:I don't know, because it's a fictional interpretation of Shakespeare and his wife, anne Hathaway. She's not even called Anne Hathaway in the film. I'm not really sure that I buy that argument. I think there's a big void here of a real-life figure and it could certainly be filled with amanda seyfried playing ann lee in the testament of ann lee. We that film has already received, uh, very positive reviews, even if we expect it to be a very polarizing film for audiences.
Speaker 1:Um, amanda seyfried is a past nominee she be going from. She'd also be doing category shift from supporting actors to lead actors. So I'm just waiting for that announcement to drop and I am Right If it even gets released this year. But if it does, I'm 100% ready to say that Amanda Seyfried will get nominated for that, based just on the fact that this category needs a real life person. And she's in an acclaimed film from someone who's already a past nominee for that film for the Buddha List last year, excuse me and she perfectly fits that bill. I like her 10 times more than I like Sidney Sweeney for playing Christy, even if, again, I do think that because of the polarizing nature of Amanda's film, she might miss some of the precursors.
Speaker 2:But I think that she'll make it at the very end, exactly because we need a real life figure here yeah, so like like we said, I mean I would expect someone like Sidney Sweeney or even Julia Roberts to factor in heavily at the Globes and at the SAG, and actors like Amanda Seyfried or Rose Byrne, who could could miss both at the end, could easily take either of their spots.
Speaker 1:Right, and then someone like Kate Hudson. There was a trailer that was just released. First song, Sung Blue. It looks enjoyable. It looks like a commercial film. I don't know how much it's going to factor into the award race. It didn't make an appearance at any of the festivals. Kate Hudson hasn't been back in a very long time. Right now it's a little bit too unknown as to whether that film is even going to be in the conversation for awards.
Speaker 2:I mean this will be decided by viewers and whether viewers show up to see the film in droves. Not unlike Roofman. Interestingly enough, like Roofman, it looks like another crowd pleaser. It is based on a real individual and that does help. We said we did need that. Kate Hudson is a previous nominee. Right now I don't think that this is an awards player, but again, this is the kind of film where, if enough people go and watch it and vote with their dollar, the conversation can change.
Speaker 1:Right, and then that leaves us with a very curious. I mean you've got some very periphery contenders. I think June Squibb could have been a contender if the film had been stronger. I think she still is. I don't think so. I haven't seen the film, I don't think the film is strong enough, but this would definitely be a year where she would have, I think, benefited from being a strong contender in.
Speaker 1:Maybe Laura Dern has a standout part in. Is this thing on which we'll know soon, even though to me that seems more like a showcase for the lead actor? Um, the last boss I didn't think was able to drum enough uh, support or you know, awards conversation for its performances. Um, and one of the curious ones that's really complicated, I think, is Cynthia Erivo, and wicked for good. Uh, certainly, uh, there's much anticipation for this performance and this film in general.
Speaker 1:However, precedent is going against cynthia rivo and ariana grande uh, for these performances, because there has never been an actor that has been nominated back to back, literally back to back, for playing the same role. Um, there's actually only one example where that's happened in the history of the Academy Awards and it was for Bing Crosby when he was nominated for going my way in 1945. Um, and he was nominated the following year in the same category Best Lead Actor for the Bells of St Mary. So, going my Way in 1945, best Actor 1946, best Actor of the Bells of St Mary. He played the same character in both films Right, and got nominated in the same category and got nominated in the same category. That is the only time it has ever happened, right. Add to that that technically they weren't the same film.
Speaker 1:It wasn't the same exact case of Wicked, which is kind of the same film cut in two, a part one and a part two. These are different films where he just happened to play the same character, and that's a damning stat, in my opinion, that there's only been one person to do it and it was in the 1940s.
Speaker 2:It's certainly one hell of a climb, right? I also say that curiously enough, you know Bing Crosby was coming off from a win from Going my Way into that second nomination, right, that consecutive nomination for the same character. But this is how odd or how steep that climb is, is that that year, when Going my Way won Best Actor for Bing Crosby and it also won Best Picture that same year they had nominated a performer in both the lead acting role and the supporting acting role for the same movie?
Speaker 2:Oh, really, and he's absolutely brilliant in it, If anyone has seen it. Barry Fitzgerald, who I think is really the runaway performance of the film, not Bing Crosby. He won the supporting actor category that year along with Bing Crosby, but he was also nominated against Bing Crosby for lead actor For the same movie For the same movie, and so after that they had to invent a rule where, like no, you can't nominate an actor in both supporting and leading so like I mean I will say that's how far back we're going.
Speaker 2:That's how far back we're going and that's how you know weird or strange of a situation that was back then. But you know other examples that people have mentioned and drawn parallels to is, for example, cate Blanchett right in Elizabeth and then Elizabeth the Golden Age, which wasn't back to back. There was almost a 10-year gap in between them same category. Another sort of great example that kind of shows up in the conversation is actually Al Pagino right in the Godfather for playing Michael Corleone. But a lot of people overlook the idea that he was, that there was a category shift, that he was actually nominated for supporting actor um, somewhat controversially in 1972 for the first one, and then a few years later, when part two comes out, he actually gets promoted to being nominated in lead actor, right, and so there is a category shift that exists.
Speaker 1:So if you're looking, it's also not back to back.
Speaker 2:There's a year in between there's a couple of years actually in between and so like if you're looking at the strictest example, you have to go back to ben crosby, going my way, and a year where the supporting actor winner was also a nominee for best actor right, and so I think that's a very important stat that I think not enough people are looking at when considering the performances of both Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande for Wicked.
Speaker 1:that I think has to come into play here, and if there were to be a case where history is going to be broken and it's going to happen again I don't expect it to happen twice, meaning I don't expect it to happen for both performances from wicked I would expect it to happen to cynthia rivo.
Speaker 1:Why cynthia rivo? It helps that she's the lead of her film, it helps that I think this category is very much lacking in diversity at the moment, um, and I think it helps that she stands a very good chance as of now to possibly win the golden globe comedy, comedy or musical actress award. So in a way, it might also be a tempting narrative for the academy, in that not only can we add some diversity to the list, but cynthia revo can campaign for the win, and it would be only the second time that a black actor wins the lead actress category. The problem with that is that Jessie Buckley is such a formidable contender, such a formidable opponent, and I feel she's got this category wrapped up that in a way, it makes me feel like there's little chances of Cynthia Erivo winning for this film. And it's not a knock on the performance or the quality of the performance. It's more that I can't see the Academy giving the Best Actress Award to that role.
Speaker 1:This sort of fantasy, epic wicked, playing a witch, the bad witch, you know, uh, you know, the wicked witch of the east west I think it's the west, um, it's just not a role that wins the lead actress, oscar not traditionally exactly and so, in a way, to nominate cynthia arevo to not make that history and be the second black actor to win for this performance I mean for, for, for lead actress, because Jesse Bulkley is going to win kind of kind of ruins the point. To even nominate Cynthia Erivo, in a way, because she can't win, so why nominate her again? And in in so doing in in doing so nominate her again is you're also breaking precedent, and you're and you're breaking, you're making history in and of itself. You know why. Why do all of that If she's not going?
Speaker 2:to win. I mean, I think if the film would really have to live up to all the expectations and then surpass them for the nomination to happen. But if it does, then I think she's certainly going to be a formidable opponent for the win. Another great example when you mentioned the fantasy, it just occurred to my mind is, again, you look at all the really great performances in the first Lord of the Rings trilogy, where only Ian McKellen was able to get a nomination for that first one. But there are so many actors that could have gotten nominations you know consecutive nominations for their work there, right, right. But there is a substantial bias against these kind of performances winning any type of Oscar, right, really, let alone the leading ones, right. And so I think therein lies the difficulty, right? But I do think that you know, to her advantage, the category is not very busy.
Speaker 1:Right, and I agree that you know, to her advantage the category is not very busy, right, and I agree. So in a way I'm torn because I think I see it so against precedent and so unlikely because of the last time that it happened, because of the movie we're talking about and the kind of role we're talking about. That being said, I don't like how the list is lacking in diversity right at this moment, and I certainly think cynthia revo is going to be a major contender to uh win that golden globe, uh comedy, comedy or musical award, which can only help her awards prospects. So the way that I see the lead actress category, I see it as these are the five point blank and only one person can spoil a spot here and the person that can spoil.
Speaker 1:it hasn't been announced yet if she's even coming out this year and if she spoils a spot, it's going to either spoil spot four or five. So what am I saying? We've got spots one and two, jesse Buckley and Renato Reinsfeld. I'm putting in my spot three, rose Byrne, giving the competition and giving her respect as an actor and the role, the performance itself. That's three spots. My fourth and my fifth spot If Amanda Seyfried does not come out this year, I think there's no way that we're getting around Emma Stone getting nominated for Begonia and Cynthia Erivo getting nominated for Wicked for Good, two nominations that technically, if we're looking at patterns and trends, shouldn't happen.
Speaker 1:It's too soon to nominate Emma Stone again in the same lead category for another Yorgos movie and it's breaking precedent to nominate Cynthia Erivo back-to-back for the same movie, just cut in two. That's why I don't think that's going to happen and I think that if and when it's announced that Amanda Seyfried is coming out this year with the Testament of Anne Lee, she takes one of those two spots. The question is which one Is the Academy going to prefer to highlight? Emma Stone for Begonia, even if it's really soon after her last win for another Yorgos movie? Or are they going to side with breaking those patterns, those long-held patterns, and nominating Cynthia Erivo again for the same film, franchise back-to-back, which would be her fifth, no fourth.
Speaker 1:Yeah her fourth nomination. Which one are they going to choose? And I think that's a really tough call At the moment. I give the edge, a slight edge, to Cynthia Erivo because of the very likely comedy or musical win in the Golden Globes. If she were to lose that category, then I feel confident that it would be Emma Stone for Begonia.
Speaker 2:I mean, I think it's another solid list, but I think you have to sort of be mindful of any sort of list that incorporates Rose Byrne and Emma Stone, for those performances is probably going to be a little too challenging for county members and let alone if you were to add Emma Stone, anne Rose Byrne and Amanda Seyfried. That's very challenging for the Academy. I mean I can't recall a category that had that many performances and films that were not necessarily films that the Academy enjoyed Right At large, at large. So it's going to be easier for them to appreciate a film possibly like Christie as opposed to a film like If I had Legs or even Amanda's film and Lee is potentially the idea that there's too many performances in films that are uncompromising and that the Academy has room typically for one or two of? Those.
Speaker 2:If they had it their way, they'd just pick one, right, so I'd look out for that.
Speaker 1:I think that's a really good point, and I think that possibly if someone I don't know like Tessa Thompson had been in a stronger vehicle that Amazon MGM was going to push harder, I think she could have factored into this race and made a splash here. But it seems like that's not what's going to happen here, and so, in a way, I think Cynthia Erivo really benefits from the category she's in.
Speaker 2:Yeah.
Speaker 1:To make that history and be the second person after Bing Crosby to do that. Now, I don't expect that to happen twice in the lead actress category and the supporting actress category, but who knows? But she certainly benefits from her competition.
Speaker 2:I mean it could. It certainly could happen for both, because it is the same movie after all, so it's not unheard of. Another complication that you and I have talked about is the idea just of having three actors go consecutively, and so, if you're already pegging that, timothy chalamet is going to do it in the same category and cynthia regal is going to do it in the same category, right? The idea that you know ariana grande would also do in the same category is just a little bit complicated, in the sense that it's really tough to find a precedent for when voters showed a pattern of voting the exact same way consecutively so many times, like you'll see, sam.
Speaker 2:Rock From one year to the next, from one year to the next year. Yeah, exactly Consecutively. And so you'll see, sam Rock will get nominated from three billboards in 2017 to vice in 2018. But the idea that a voter is going to list three performers in the same category consecutively, that's a little bit of a stretch. I think you and I have talked about like a year like 2009.
Speaker 1:Which is very no 2010. Well, 2009 is the year that Jeff.
Speaker 2:Bridges won for Crazy Heart and Colin Firth was nominated for a single man solo nominee, and Jeremy Renner was in the best picture winner at the Hurt Locker and all of them shared the actor category. And then in 2010, a few months later, um, they were actually all nominated again for different films. I mean, jeff bridges was in a best picture nominee true grit. Now colin firth was in the best picture winner the king's speech and he won best actor that year. Right, but even jeremy renner he at least gets a category shift because he's not nominated an actor, he's nominated a supporting actor for the town.
Speaker 1:So just the idea, and also that Colin Firth was going to a win, yeah, and Jeff Bridges was coming from a win.
Speaker 2:Yeah, exactly. So the idea that all three of these performers beyond that they lost, all of them lost last year, it could them lost last year, it could be an interesting narrative that develops um.
Speaker 1:So it's something to look out for. Yeah, very, very strange category. I guess the only pro here is that it's a little bit easier to map out, I guess because there's not a lot of contenders.
Speaker 2:But maybe that's also one reason why maybe we're not looking and there's going to be a big surprise here that's what I think is sometimes, when you have categories that are like you're shuffling for well, who, who the hell can be nominated. This is this is the kind of year where you have your Sandra Bullock gets in for the blindside, kind of thing. And then, before you know it, sandra Bullock is winning for the blindside kind of thing.
Speaker 2:So definitely look out in the next couple of months to see what pops Right. Okay, well, right okay.
Speaker 1:Well, that's our dive into what the landscape looks like post the fall festivals for best picture, director, actor and actress, and the next episode we'll tackle supporting actress and supporting actor and the two screenplay nominations. So we'll look at all the above the line, see what the landscape looks like and we'll and that episode will be coming out shortly um, stay tuned with us. Visit our website framesandflickrcom. You have our twitter handle at academy anon. Follow us if you can, and we look forward to spending time with you on the next episode. Until then, this is Jules and I'm Joseph, and it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin MacLeod and Incompetechcom, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. Forward slash, forward slash creativecommonsorg. Forward slash, licenses, forward slash, buy. Forward slash 3.0.
Speaker 2:Disclaimer the Academy Anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.