Academy Anonymous
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2025-2026: ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER Blows Up the Oscar Race; the Contenders for Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor
All Major Oscar Predictions Now Live at FramesAndFlicker.com
Follow us: @AcademyAnon
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- Warner Bros. unveils instant American classic with ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
- The legacy of Paul Thomas Anderson to reign over this year’s Oscars
- Is SINNERS vs. ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER the new BARBIE vs. OPPENHEIMER?
- Will U.S. box-office receipts be the Achilles heel for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER’s Best Picture chances?
- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER vs. THERE WILL BE BLOOD - Revisiting PTA’s big Oscar breakthrough from 2007
- NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and the arrival of a new era of Hollywood filmmaking at the Oscars
- Can Leonardo DiCaprio finally shepherd his first film to a Best Picture Oscar since 1997’s TITANIC?
- Will brilliant performances from ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER ensemble cancel each other out or make Oscar history with record-breaking SIX acting nominations?
- Best Supporting Actress category stuffed with possibilities and no clear front runner!
- Teyana Taylor, Regina Hall and Chase Infiniti duel it out for voter favorite
- Warner Bros. stuck between a rock and a hard place in Best Supporting Actress as they prep campaigns for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, SINNERS and WEAPONS
- Will Amy Madigan in WEAPONS upset Oscar nominees Emily Blunt from THE SMASHING MACHINE and Glenn Close from WAKE UP DEAD MAN to nab the coveted veteran spot?
- Emily Blunt too “real” to snub in Best Supporting Actress?
- Will the Netflix Best Supporting Actress streak stay alive?
- Aunt Gladys vs. Glinda the Good! Analyzing Ariana Grande and Amy Madigan’s unorthodox chances - will they break history or be broken by history?
- Jennifer Lopez hoping to ride pedigree of KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN to first career nomination! Is she being underestimated by Oscar pundits?
- With four spots likely taken, contenders target the final wide-open slot for Best Supporting Actor
- Warner Bros. tries to double up nominees AGAIN - Sean Penn and Benicio Del Toro vs. Delroy Lindo and Miles Caton
- Can Adam Sandler FINALLY break in with heartwarming turn in JAY KELLY? Or will voters prefer Billy Crudup’s scene-stealing moment?
- Diego Luna looks to capture nomination that eluded Raul Julia with KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN
- Is celebrated turn from Jacob Elordi in the overlooked FRANKENSTEIN enough for him to leap frog veterans for the final spot in Best Supporting Actor?
- Can Jacob Elordi and Paul Mescal both reaps nods in the Best Supporting Actor category?
Welcome back, listeners, to a new edition of the Academy Anonymous podcast. As always, I'm your co-host Joseph, and I'm here with Jules. And we are running down all the new updates on the Oscar race. We've got a very fun episode today. I'm going to talk about a big movie that came out, One Battle. Hopefully, we're going to do a deep dive into Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. If you want to look at any of the other categories like actor, actress, check out our episode last week. All that's up already. Some uh updates before we begin our discussion.
SPEAKER_02:Right. We have officially all the predictions are ready on our website. If you go to our website, we have a fresh batch of all our predictions for best picture, best director, actor, actor, supporting actor, supporting actress, the screenplay categories, and for many of the texts. We have editing, cinematography, production design, costume design, makeup. We have sound, we have score, we have visual effects, and we have the new category, casting. Very interesting. Ooh, nice. We have our predictions for each of those categories, who's in the running, why we're predicting those five, who's in contention. So it's a lot of fun. Make sure to visit us at our website, framesandflicker.com. Um, and also please visit us at our Twitter, uh, which is at Academy Anon. That's A-N-O-N, Academy Anon. And um, yeah, visit us at our website, frames and flicker. We'd love to have you. And uh, we've got a lot of cool updates there.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and uh both of those, um both of the details for both of those are also on the cover image for our podcast in case you want to reference that later. Um, a lot of cool stuff going on. We are officially uh in the season of the New York Film Festival, which is one of the last film festivals of the fall, which could um have some premieres and can have some impact on the races.
SPEAKER_02:It's got a handful of premieres. It's got a handful of premieres.
SPEAKER_00:We've been to the New York Film Festival. We love that festival. It's freaking awesome. Great festival. I did have some question marks this year. I think we're gonna dig into that hopefully next week. A lot of things going on there, some divisive takes on House of Dynamite, yeah. Anemone just premiered. Um, hopefully, we're gonna talk about that next week. We'll have screened it so we can do a little bit more of an informative take on where we're seeing on in the race.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Um, uh, you know, uh after the hunt already premiered, I'm not sure that had the recovery that it was hoping for. Um, Bruce Springsteen just went and performed, right? Which was kind of fun. I don't think people were expecting that. That's cool. Yeah. So we'll dig into the New York Film Festival next week.
SPEAKER_02:Um, then let's also say we also have a slew of upcoming films that are coming out theatrically. So I think this week is the Smashing Machine on Top of Anemones. Yes. Um, and uh next week we have Kiss of the Spider Woman and Roofman. Roofman's coming out. Um, just a lot of films theatrically. I think this the Springsteen movies coming out the week after, I think.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, so I think we got our predictions, you know, we have them updated at just the right time. We're taking into account the reception out of those film festivals, but now every film after it screens to a select number of press and a select number of individuals who are covering the race, now it will screen for people, and that is a challenge, a brand new challenge. Um, and so I think let's just let's just start digging into this episode because we had a movie premiere that skipped the fall festivals, right? And you could argue was the best movie of the fall.
SPEAKER_02:Um it sort of uh drew a lot of the attention away from the festivals when the embargoes lifted. Toronto Who, yeah. People's choice, what? Right, yeah, right. And PTA notoriously doesn't really like doing a lot of festivals, right? So it was not a surprise that he wanted to skip the festivals here and Warner Brothers as well after they had a debacle the last time they tried to do that last year with um Joker 2. That's right. So they're very anti-festivals as well.
SPEAKER_00:Um, and it didn't need the festivals, it did absolutely did not need the unanimous acclaim and has sort of, you know, I think carved out this idea, this very valid idea of does a film need to premiere at a festival in order to make a very sizable impact? Again, I do think that everyone agrees that the best film that they've seen in the last month happens to be the one that just opened up to major uh theaters this past weekend. Right. Um, so I think that's something you know worth looking at in the future. Um so one battle after another opens up. Um, screening for started screening for press a few weeks ago, right? So some people had a taste, and there were some people who even had a taste of this from a test screening months ago, right? Right. And they were already saying that they loved the film. Um, we were a little bit unsure of what we were gonna be um in store for. Um so we've had an opportunity to screen it, and we've actually been fortunate enough to screen it a couple of times. A couple of times, and we including um IMAX, which was which was wonderful. IMAX 70. IMX 70, which was really special. Um, and if you have that opportunity, you know, go out there and check that out. If not, just check it out because just watching the film is special enough. Yes. Um I really enjoyed the film. I thought it was a a really wonderful Paul Thomas Anderson film. I think it manages to be so many things at once. Um, it's just such a singular experience, and to have it in the theater is extra special. Um, just a really wonderful new film from Paul Thomas Anderson, which is no surprise. At the same time, I think it it it pushes his artistry to a new level. What did you what did you think?
SPEAKER_02:Well, you know, first of all, we're such adamant lovers of PTA, as is most people. He's one of our heroes, full stop. We were all of around 11 years old when Magnolia changed our lives, and Magnolia is my favorite film of all time. So words can't express how much we love PTA. No surprise here that this film is an amazing accomplishment from him. Um, and one of his best in the last few years, you know, I certainly think it's a film that surpasses um Inherent Vice and Licorice Pizza. Um, it's kind of close for me right now with Phantom Thread, which is a film that I adore. Um, and you know, there's so much go going on in this film, but what really stuck with me was just how politically charged it was for the kind of climate that we're living in politically, and being able to turn that into a film that's also entertaining with these very intricate action set pieces with a phenomenal cast, top to bottom. Everyone is sparkling, it's just an amazing cast um with a beautiful score by Johnny Greenw Greenwood and um uh craftsmanship, uh beautiful top to bottom. And you know, it's it's but but what was very searing for me was you know just you know how uh politically relevant it felt to me. You know, I really hit a nerve and it really, you know, was in a way there's there are things about it that were prophetic because it wasn't wasn't made just recently, but it's but it's it's holding up a mirror to what's going on right now in this country and in society so hauntingly, you know, that it really punched me in the gut and really left a a very a very strong impression on me. I think it was one of the things that I most was captivated by, enthralled by, disturbed by, and experiencing all of that, unpacking all of that in a you know, beautiful screening like the AMAX 70 was just an all-time experience for me. I think we both felt similarly. It was just an incredible experience all around.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I I completely agree. Um just to sort of again be surrounded by that image of what they're saying, but just they're so beautifully crafted, is is such a extraordinary experience. And I think the film I think a lot has been said about it, and I don't think I think the surf the film will surpass most people's expectations. I think it's it's has a lot of depth, and I think it's the rare film that is timely and also timeless. And it's very difficult not to imagine this being a classic in the future, um, and sort of a seminal American film of a seminal film from the US and hopefully, hopefully a film that will represent this next chapter of American filmmaking as a very promising era of filmmaking, very bold stories um told with with a a lot of uh vigor and passion. And so I think that's part of I think that's part of where it lands in the awards race right now. So let's let's take a larger look at where we see it heading in the awards race. Um and so I will say this we're gonna we're gonna try our hardest not to speak too in depth and you know have any spoilers. So if you're listening, don't worry about that. We're not gonna try to reveal anything about the plot. We'll try to just be general here. Um and so I think this is first of all, I think it's a surefire contender, and I think it's going to contend, as you said, top to bottom. To me, the discussion becomes will the film have enough legs to I don't know, uh continue being what I see what I see it now as, which is the front runner. I think it's the front runner to win a large amount of categories. Um I think that has to do with the the film that's on screen, but also the career that Paul Thomas Anderson has has sort of nurtured here.
SPEAKER_02:Um I think the timeliness is something that's very uh important to look at in that discussion.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um and then I think well, how about this? Let's start talking about where you think the film will land, and I'll preface this by saying that the most successful film from Paul Thomas Anderson with the Academy was There Will Be Blood in 2007, and that was I believe eight nominations. Eight nominations, right? That's the most she's ever gotten. It was only one acting nomination, and it ended up being nominated for it. And so I would start there because this film is not going to do less than There Will Be Blood in nominations. Interestingly enough, that year there will be blood lost best picture. It was tied for most nominations with another contemporary film, No Country for Old Men. Which one best picture? Which one best picture?
SPEAKER_02:And some people have already decided that this is sort of PTA's No Country for Old Men. There's certainly a Western bend to it, yeah, you know, which is very evocative.
SPEAKER_00:The film was fantastic because the film is sort of the film genre is Western war epic stoner comedy, a father-daughter story. So the film is so many things, but yes, there have been comparisons to No Country for All Men, and I'm glad that we mentioned that because again, No Country for All Men, the Departed. It sort of brought up this era in American filmmaking that people look back on with such um uh such appreciation, right? Because we were leaving sort of the costume uh uh the costume era of movies that are winning best picture, and all of a sudden you had these really timely pieces that were hitting a nerve as to like the American conscience of the time. Right. And so you had this chapter where that this chapter where at the academy were films like The Departed and No Country for All Men won. And so that's what I'm that's why I said that I have hope that the presence and the success of one battle after another will sort of lead this new era of American filmmaking for the next couple of years, which are going to be trying times to say the least for you know, if you're living in the US, or if you're observing the US, and like you said, you know, this sort of mishmash of all this, you know, these different tones and these different genres that's working really well in the movie while still wrapped around this again, this mirror that's holding up to the current landscape that we're living in.
SPEAKER_02:Um, it's just so evocative and and really compelling, really powerful. And I remember you just bringing that up. I remember when The Will Be Blood came out, and I was in teenager, we were both teenagers, and I remember that film left an impression on me, but it was a weird one in the sense that, and I'm mentioning it because you were mentioning uh that that particular year, that's his most nominated film, along with No Control Men, that which I won. Um, I remember it left a very big impression on me, but almost as if I had a hard time deciphering how how it made me feel because that film in large part was a departure from the kind of films he was making before then Punchman Glove, Magnolia, Boogie Knights, big ensemble pieces, right? Right. There was something so different about you know his filmmaking style. Period in that film. Yeah, his first yeah, exactly, exactly. There's something so different about his filmmaking style and that particular film. Um, but if you look at the entire body of work of PTA, there are certain pertinent dominant themes that are everywhere, and that's certainly true for this film. Um, which if you're a PTA fan, you'll definitely take note, you'll notice, and again, it's as as effective as it's ever been.
SPEAKER_00:Right. I completely agree. Um now looking at it through that lens, I think we both agree it cannot go lower than eight. Right now, I have a theory, and my first theory is I think this will be the first PTA film to go double digits, and so I think that's no less than 10. Right. I think that's how big, that's how immense of the achievement um we're seeing that's on screen. Um when when there was eight for There Will Be Blood, there was one nomination that I don't think will cross over, right? Which is There Will Be Blood was nominated for, you know, best picture, director, screenplay, actor for Daniel Day Lewis, film editing, cinematography. I think all of those are certainly in play for one battle, but I do not think that the nomination for production design is in play.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. I do think that the film will do well at the guild for production design. It might even win its category for production design. And it's beautiful. And it's it's it's really well done. But it's I I I I highly doubt that it's gonna factor into that category.
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. It's almost too contemporary, and it's something that they tend to resist. And this year in particular, there's a lot of fantasy, there's a lot of period that might muscle it out. I do think it'll end up winning its um its category of contemporary at the guild, but I do not think it'll be able to make it in there.
SPEAKER_02:And that's true for other categories as well. You know, the the costume design in the film is very, very well done. Colleen Atwood. But first time working together. Right. And I expect it to be cited at the guild, but I fully expect the film to not be nominated for costume design. Exactly. Because it's just too contemporary and they they tend to prefer um, you know, uh more period uh pieces. Right. However, Colleen Atwood is having a great year because she has another surefire contender in this category for costume design, which is Kiss of the Spider Woman, which is incredible work.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:And so if Colleen Atwood, if they want to cite Colleen Atwood, it's hard to see them want to cite the contemporariness of one battle when they've got Kiss of the Spider Woman right there.
SPEAKER_00:If anything, it bolstered the reason to nominate Colleen Atwood this year, but probably again, probably for Kiss of the Spider Woman. I agree with you. The makeup uh at one battle, I mean, again, it's not like uh overtly in your face, but it's very well done throughout. And there are moments when it's done spectacularly well. It's got a fantastic team. I don't think it'll end up getting a nomination. Could end up being a semifinalist, we never know. It depends on how crowd the category is. But there again, I don't see it picking up a nomination. Right. But so if there will be blood had eight, and you and I are agreeing that it's gonna lose production design, that's seven, but we quickly mentioned to each other that it'll pick up original score, which there will be blood somehow missed. Right. Right.
SPEAKER_02:I think it was like disqualified that year, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:That was stupid. They disqualified in 2007, so that's that's eight comfortable nominations. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um well, let's start with Best Picture. That's a no-brainer. I agree with you that it's one of the front runners for the top prize. I'm not sold yet that it's the definitive winner. I think right now the way I'm seeing it is it's gonna end up being a battle between one battle after another and Hamnet. And someone brought up an interesting take. I read it online or I saw it online somewhere, that in the way kind of is a weird uh it sort of mirrors a little bit 1998 with Saving Private Ryan and Shakespeare in Love in a weird way. Someone mentioned that in but but in this particular case, like Chloe Zhao is the you know Stevens Boberg because she's already won Best Director. It's some kind of weird take like that.
SPEAKER_01:Oh wow.
SPEAKER_02:Um, but I think it's the last time that we saw a Shakespeare movie be nominated for or a film about Shakespeare to some degree be nominated for Best Picture was 1998. I believe so. Um, and so I I see it as that ruined it for all other Shakespeare movies. Um and and interestingly enough, Shakespeare himself, uh Joseph Fines was not nominated uh for as an for an acting award. Will Shakespeare this year be s nominated? I wonder. I do wonder about that sometimes. Um but anyway, so I see Best Picture ending up to be a battle between those two films. Um for the win. But I do think that when we talk about Best Picture, we have to consider that you know, the package of one battle after another contemplates to some degree how well it does at the box office. And so unfortunately, that's not something that we can completely ignore. It's all over our notes if you look at our predictions. Shameless plug. Um, and we just got the box office receipts receipts, and the film came out with I think 22 million. Not 22, uh domestic. It did break the streak that Warner Brothers was having consecutive 40 million plus you know, releases, debuts. It was expected. Um, but the sort of uh if you look on film Twitter, the fervor for One Battle was huge, and so you would think that that might possibly translate. I mean, the film is like 96 on Metacritic, so there was a lot of hope that that could translate to a more to more box office, uh a bet a better box office result than what was expected. However, it got exactly what was expected, right? Which was in the 20s, which is a good opening for Paul Thomas Anderson in general. It's just not a very strong opening when you consider that the film has a price tag of around 150 million. Yeah. Um, which is a very huge price tag. That's a talking point. I think Warner Brothers is, you know, probably not as concerned because you know, they've had such a successful year and they've had so many successes come out this year that you know defied expectations. Just look at the conjuring a couple weeks ago. Weapons. Uh, weapons was huge, and of course Sinners was huge. Superman. And so in a way that kind of I think relieved that exactly from this film having to like you know break the bank with the box office. But still, you know, right now it doesn't right now. I don't think it's it to me, it seems like it's a film that's not going to reach um profit in a way, with how much with what the budget was to make the film. And so that's I think something that unfortunately is part of its narrative, right? That it's so critically acclaimed and so beloved by critics and by PTA fans and Cinefals. But at the box office, it's not, you know, a jargon, it's not a huge hit. Right. Will it have legs? Possibly, we'll see. I mean, that's sort of the word of mouth helps, right? Like had an A Cinema score, that's great. So I think that there's potential for some staying power, but there's also, I think, a very uh strong probability that it doesn't make back its money.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Until possibly it gets nominated, in which case it can have a second win, and then maybe then it will.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, but anyway, the point is that right now, pre-nominations, it's part of the narrative that it's a film that didn't do as well at the box office as one would hope, especially with all the acclaim that it was amassing.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Correct? Yeah, but let's also mention that it is Paul's biggest opening, which is good. Right. And it puts it on track to at least match the will be blood in terms of Lifetime US Gross. And I think unfortunately, it's on the lower end for Leo in terms of openings. Right. Isn't it right on par with Killers of the Flower Moon? Exactly. It's right on par with Killers of the Flower Moon, which again was also kind of disappointing. It was also a$200 million budget, I believe, for Marty's film. So slightly more expensive. Um, I think Warner Brothers has done one hell of a job promoting the film. It's got the cast all over the place, and that's got to be expensive too, but you're right. And I will say Killers of the Flower Moon ended its run at around 68 mil for the US. Right.
SPEAKER_02:I that's sort of like where I'm seeing uh one battle end. I think it's gonna end around the 70, possibly 80 million range, right when all is said and done. Again, until possibly it gets a second win post-nominations, possibly. But the reason I brought up the box office is because if if I'm seeing Best Picture look C right now as a battle between uh One Battle and Hamnet, that's something that narrat that narratively Hamnet is not gonna have to deal with. Right. It's not gonna have to deal with this, you know, lingering, you know, it was not a box office hit. It was, you know, it's a certainly a smaller budgeted film. Right. And I think that there's enough there in that movie, and it's sizable enough that I think it can make back its money at the box office. Yeah, especially with again, this is another film that's in the mid-90s on Metacritic. Right. Um, this is also a film that's very emotional, and people are coming, be are people going to the screening and crying their eyes out. Right. And so I in a way, I see that being a big asset to something like Hamnet that is gonna be, I think right now, the film that can most give one battle a run for its money.
SPEAKER_00:I think we also talked about that idea about you know what kind of academy we're gonna get. Are we gonna get the academy that wants to escape? Because Hamnet is gonna be that emotional escape, or are we gonna get the Academy of Honora and four Oscars for Sean Baker, which is I it's time to have the conversation that Honora wants us to have? Are they gonna say it's time to have the conversation that one battle wants us to have? Right. Um, something else that could come into play here is, you know, as a voter, when you're selecting your films or when you're selecting a winner, how heavily are you gonna judge one battle's box office success on a curve in the sense that you know, no, it may not make its money back at the box office, but the risk that was sort of implied by green lighting this film and giving it that price tag. And again, you can see the entirety of that price tag on screen. You know, how much are you going to weigh it against, you know, it didn't make its money back, but this is the kind of film that I want to reward a big studio for making because they don't make that, you know. It's it's it's easier to get away with making Hamnet at that budget level at focus or a Nora at that budget level and and working with Neon. The idea that there's a studio out there that was able to green light this for that amount of money, and again, it's not frivolously spent, all that money is certainly on the screen. Right. How much are you gonna weigh that against I want to give it an award because I want to see what you know Universal's version of that is, right? I want to see what Disney's version of that is, I want to promote that idea again of studio supporting these big artistic statements that are also very much on the pulse of what you know Americans are dealing with on a daily basis. Yeah, right. So I think that might also play into it. Um but so after best picture, best director, right?
SPEAKER_02:Obviously, and I think you know, given Paul's stature in the industry and his career and his filmography, I certainly think he's very well positioned in that race to win. Um, I think his biggest competition right now, I think, in that race is Ryan Kugler. I can't say Chloe's out because she's already won. I think that that's a big reason why she won't win, and maybe even a reason why she won't even get nominated for best director, as shocking as that may sound. Right. Um, I think his biggest competition is the other Warner Brothers fan, which is Ryan Kugler, who could make history becoming the first black uh director to win best director, which is no small thing. That would be an incredible achievement. Um, so I think that that that narrative that Ryan Kugler might be playing with in centers is gonna be a big deal. Yeah. So I sort of but but but Paul Thomas Anderson is not his first nomination as a director, it would be for Ryan Kugler's, and he has a sort of career that is just you know so revered and so respected that it's gonna be a tough competition, but I give the edge to Paul Thomas Anderson, right?
SPEAKER_00:I mean, so there will be blood in terms of acting, had Daniel Day Lewis in the bag, right, right? Um, I think we both agree that uh the nomination in terms of acting that One Battle has in the bag, and I think the consensus is formed around it is for Sean. Right. Right, Sean Pennon's supporting actor. Right, right.
SPEAKER_02:And I absolutely I agree with that a hundred percent. I think one for a film like One Battle, which again has a stupendous cast, I think acting is one of the most interesting things when we talk about awards prospects for it. Um, because everyone not there's not a there's not an actor here that's wasted. Everyone gets an opportunity to shine, big or small, and the bigger you are, the more you get to shine. Um uh that's just how well calibrated everything is. This film absolutely deserves a casting nomination that I think it will get, and we'll we'll be in contention to win. Um I think that certainly the consensus has been around uh Sean Penn being the sort of you know absolute nomination, and I agree with that. I love Sean Penn. I can't say it's my favorite performance of the piece, you know. I I do think he plays it pretty, pretty broadly. Um I'm not sure I would say it's one of my top five Sean Penn performances, but I will say he le he's it's it's it's it's it's I mean Sean Penn's always great, so that's always great, exactly. Um uh but I will say that he he he does stand out in the film. He's sort of the the the you know, I guess he's the villainous, he's the villain of the piece, even though I think the film very evocatively has sort of has an empathy for him. It does. That's that's very touching. That's very touching and tragic. Uh yes, absolutely, 100%. Um, so I think he is absolutely the standout. Then I think it gets complicated. Right.
SPEAKER_00:But so before we head into those complications, just so that we're on the same sort of page here in terms of tracking there will be blood. So the one acting nod that we everyone agrees for sure is gonna happen is Sean. Film editing looks like a no-brainer. It's a really long film, but this is the editor from Licorice Pizza. He didn't get in for Licorice Pizza.
SPEAKER_02:And and uh the editing in this particular film is incredibly impressive because for as long a film as it is, two and a half hours, you know, it moves at a clip. Oh my god, it moves so well, it moves so freaking fast, moves so well, it feels like an hour and a half, it doesn't even feel like three hours, I have to say. So I absolutely think that that's a no-brainer nomination.
SPEAKER_00:Also, a lot of action going on here, a lot of intercutting, and also, you know, several layers to the story going on. So that's gonna be a factor for it. Cinematography, yeah, it should definitely get in. We everyone knows shot in VistaVision, right? Um, watching it in a theater is such a major, massive part of the experience. So cinematography, we're in agreement, it's gonna match that.
SPEAKER_02:Uh along the lines of what we were saying about um pacing, I think that Johnny Greenwood score does a lot to contribute to that pacing. Momentum, yeah. And building that moment momentum um and uh helping the film feel as you know um compulsive and kinetic as it does. And so I certainly think Johnny Goonwood will get his third nomination for this film, right?
SPEAKER_00:And his second with Paul.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_00:And it'll make up for that, also that snub that we're talking about from the will be blood. And so forget about the production design nomination because it's really tough for it to happen. Right. But the will be blood did get a sound nomination, right? And I think we're both on the same page here thinking that one battle is is an easy one. That's an easy one for it to pick up.
SPEAKER_02:I I I I certainly think that it will get an eye for sound. I'm not sure right now that I'm ready to place in the top two for sound. So because it's on the lower end of the category, I think there's always a possibility that could get snubbed from sound. But right now, I see it well positioned to get that category. I think it's like a number four, number five right now.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And so then I'm pretty sure I mentioned, but certainly Paul in adapted screenplay, and this is certainly an adapted screenplay, very much like There Will Be Blood, it's using the source material, making it its own, but it's credited in the credits. If you haven't seen it, it is credited um in part to to Vineland from Pigeon.
SPEAKER_02:And I will say there's a poetry to you know, whatever happens in Best Director that Paul I think is definitively going to win the screenplay category. Whatever happens with the box office, whatever happens in the best director category, I think that screenplay category is his. And there's a poetry to that because as he's one of our greatest uh cinematic storytellers and screenwriters. And to have him his first nomination was as a screenwriter uh for Boogie Knights, right? And so, you know, to have that be one of his first Oscars, I think there's such a beautiful poetry to that.
SPEAKER_00:I completely agree. Um, and so that's the eight. I think nine is a very easy one. That's casting, right? That that's like I think a four-nine, yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Interestingly enough, yeah, she's actually never been cited by the casting uh association, yeah, um, even though she's such an integral part to Paul Thomas Anderson's films and building those incredible ensembles. Yeah, and again, because the ensembles are firing on all cylinders in this particular film, I just can't see her not getting mentioned in that category.
SPEAKER_00:Also, the eclecticness of the cast, right? And the diversity of the cast. You had to make new discoveries, you had Chase uh as a discovery here. So it's almost like it has a little bit of all the great casting. Like we need someone to lead it, we need someone, we need a discovery. Um, we need someone to uh sort of give us a different lingo when we need it. Um, we also need someone to just like really be a uh to really shine in two minutes. I know the perfect actor. Right, right. I definitely think that's gonna happen. And that's nine, right? My opinion is if any Paul Thomas Anderson film is gonna go double digits, this would be the one because it is such a massive price tag and it's in a massive canvas on screen. Um, I also I have this idea that I don't think it can go lower than Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Right. I think you know, as these filmmakers age, they just as you said grow in stature and grow in respect and esteem and just fanaticism amongst moviegoers, but. People in the industry. And so I do think that I can't see this going less than 10 when Once Upon a Time in Hollywood went with 10, right?
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Um, and so we're left to sort of cherry pick what could be that 10th nomination. And it seems to me that we both agree it should be an acting nomination.
SPEAKER_02:The easiest place to get that 10. I agree. I I think the film gets at least 10. I'm not a hundred percent sure yet if I see I like 10 as the number, you know, in a way kind of mimics a little bit Kes of the Flower Moon, which kind of underperformed at the box office, despite being unanimously praised by critics. You know, so I kind of like an interesting symmetry that's going there and also PTA was involved in this in the in the script of Quietly, yes. He but during the press tour, he he talked about it a bit, which was which was interesting. Wow. Yeah. Um, and so I kind of like 10 as a number right now. Um, but you're right, the easiest the easiest uh category to fill that slot is another acting nomination. And so who do you think has the edge there?
SPEAKER_00:All right. Well, like I said, and we'll deep dive into possibly you know the richest categories that it has for acting, which is supporting actor and supporting actress. But if you had to maybe pick one that you're kind of leaning towards right now for that tenth nomination, the person or the category?
SPEAKER_02:Um both. Okay. I would say that considering thematically what the film is about, I think it's really hard for I think it's hard for there not to be a supporting actress nominee from this. Um and there are three incredible women who do fabulous work here: Tayana Taylor, Chase Infinity, and Regina Hall. Um, each with limited screen time to a certain degree, which complicates things, but I don't see how, considering how integral they all are and to the film, to the story, and to the themes of the film that it's it's exploring, I don't see how we don't get at least one supporting actress nominee into in in this into this count. So I would say it has to be a supporting actress nominee. And right now, I think you know, supporting actress is tough because I I I I'm not 100% sure. Well, let's put it this way my favorite supporting actress performance was Regina Hall. I thought she was so lovely and present. Tremendous actor, tremendous, tremendous actor, that I think it's going to be, you know, a revelation to some Academy members who just see her as, you know, kind of a funny presence. We've always known that she's had the chops, so she's had the dramatic depth. She gets to showcase it here. Unfortunately, though, she is underutilized. I agree with that criticism about her, or maybe not even criticism, but I agree that that's true, unfortunately, about her performance. It is underutilized. Um, but I thought she was amazing. Um but I think that Tana Taylor, who was also amazing, um she really freaking owns the first 30 minutes of the movie. Like she fucking devours the first 30 minutes. The first 20, 25, 30 minutes are hers. The prologue is hers.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, she's essentially the prologue.
SPEAKER_02:She's an essential part to you know how how things unfold, the events, right? You know, she's a catalyst and she just storms into the film with such intensity that it to me it was hard to forget about. It was hard to shake. So in a way, she kind of hovers throughout the film, even if her part is the beginning of the film. Um, and so in a way, I and she's she's also very complex, very endearing, very captivating character. She's really comp complexly written that I can't help but feel like she's gonna leave an indelible impression on whoever watches that film. Um, and then last you have Chase Infinity, who I think is a major discovery of the film, but she has very few credits. I think she's part of the presumed innocent show. You know, I think that unfortunately her credits might be a detractor here for her in terms of getting her first nomination. Um, we're to we'll talk about later, you know, specific specifics, but there are some the people are uh claiming, you know, predicting that she might even get a shift into lead to make some room for the other two contenders and supporting. I certainly think that, you know, because they all do a wonderful job and they all have some some form of cons to some degree, they kind of eat at each other a little bit. So the first time I saw the film, I thought everyone is great in terms of supporting actress, it's Teano or Bust. That's what I thought the first time. Right. Um, just because again, it it's just they eat at each other a bit. So, right. The second time I saw it, I guess maybe I thought more possibly that you know they might not necessarily have to eat at each other, especially if you move Chase to lead. And at the same time, I wonder people have been talking about um uh Inga and Al Fanning possibly getting a double nomination for sentimental value. I think that's wrong. You know, having seen Sentimental Value, I think Al Fanning is a lock, pure and simple. She's the biggest lock, the only lock on supporting actress. But after that, you know, I'm not sure that I see Inga getting into this five, but I can definitely see two actresses from this film getting into the five.
SPEAKER_00:Could totally happen.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and then I wonder if those two would be Tana Taylor and Regina Hall.
SPEAKER_00:I'm I mean, I think that's a perfectly valid argument. And so you're saying the tenth spot possibly coming from supporting actress. Yes. I could totally see that. For me, my gut says that there's a tenth spot. Look for someone like Benisha del Toro, who is beloved and respected within the academy. He's a winner for traffic. He has such a memorable part in this movie. Fucking good, and he's amazing in his part, and again, instantly memorable, um, very classic performance, I think. But instantly poignant. Yeah, absolutely, and very layered, and just he he does what Benicio Lotoro can do. Um, and I think it's been forever since he's been he's been nominated, and he he he should have been nominated for Sicario, to be perfectly honest. So I don't know how that happened. Right. But here he is, he's working with his friend Sean Penn, right? Um, and he I think you know, um, it's his second uh film with Paul Thomas Anderson, how already had a great turn in Wes Anderson's film, which unfortunately didn't get a good crowd. But I would look for Benicio. And so I think you and I are both touching on the idea of the 10th nomination being an actor. But I want to take this a step further, and I want to say that you know, Warner Brothers has had one hell of a year, and so congratulations to them. I gave them a lot of flack, but they've had a hell of a year, a lot of great populist films, and now just a fantastic art film, independent film, au tour film. It's it's really wonderful to see. Um, I think they're in the position this year. My gut says they're in the position this year, the enviable position, to have both the Barbie and the Oppenheimer. And so I think that One Battle, um, which I will refer to as Oba because I like that. I like that. Some people like One Battle, I like Oba. I like One Battle. Okay, so Oba, I think has the the canvas of Greek film, Oba has the canvas of Oppenheimer, and like Oppenheimer, represents what the industry, what major million-dollar filmmaking can do, both artistically, creatively, but also thematically, um, socially, um, politically. Um, so I think that that's where one battle could possibly sit. And Sinners, I think, is the Barbie in terms of just this uh blockbuster that has so much depth and so many layers and is so meaningful to the industry, again, so meaningful to artists and meaningful to the future of storytelling, and and just you know Ryan Coogler's is gonna carry this torch of what filmmaking can be for the next 20, 25 years, more than that. Um, and so I think they're in the coveted position of this year, they're not gonna lose out to the Oppenheimer, they have the Oppenheimer. If the Oppenheimer loses to the Barbie, then they have the Barbie, which is sinners.
SPEAKER_02:Right, with the one caveat being that those two are blockbusters. Yes. Oh well. Well, and that in this particular case, the blockbuster would be sinners, right? And one battle would not be a blockbuster.
SPEAKER_00:Right. That I think that that is also worth mentioning. Um, but that's the way I'm seeing it. The other thing I'll say is, you know, when I look at Oppenheimer and it breaks the 10 nominations and it's Chris's most nominated film. I think 10 obviously would be PTA's most nominated film, but I do wonder if it can go further than 10. And so we did have the benefit of seeing it twice. If you speak to anyone about the film afterward, one thing is gonna become instantly noticeable. People love different performances. Some people love Leonid, some people love Sean, some people love Benisha, some people love Regina, some people love Taylor Taylor, some people love Chase. They're all brilliant. And the film gives them each material, yeah, and they exceed and excel what they're given. Um, and I think it's also boldly cast, right? Where you have Sean Penn doing such a memorable Sean Penn movie that, you know, I think harks back to very early young Sean Penn when he's a teenager, right? Um, but at the same time, you have Regina Hall. I I told you this. You get Regina Hall and she's sort of playing the straight man, yeah, right. And then you get Leo and you tell Leo, I don't want you to play the straight man, I want you to play, I want you to play the the comic, the comedic relief. Right, right. Right. And so, and then you have the Discovery in Chase, and then Tiana Taylor, right? As you said, is volcanic when she enters the film. And so part of me wonders can this film really go less than three acting nominations? When I look at something like Birdman or Oppenheimer, which ended up winning Best Picture, they each got three acting nominations. Yeah, right. And um, one of them is at least a veteran, right? Uh Downey Jr. was a veteran. They were able to bring in Emily Blunt and Killian Murphy for Oppenheimer, uh, Edward Norton was a veteran, able to bring in Michael Keaton and Emma Stone for the first time. And so I I think my gut says there's a minimum here of three acting, right? Right. I agree 100%. I do. And I think smart people are sort of picking up on the idea that it might be Leo, right? Because Leo tends to get in whenever his screenplay gets in, and people are definitely taking it. Because Killers of the Flower Moon, he got snubbed for, right? And we're sort of saying, can well, maybe, maybe they're gonna nominate Leo this time. You and I discussed it because they snubbed him for killers, right? Right. And certainly in killers, he got a very unflattering role, and I think that hurt. I think he's fantastic. I love him in Killers of the Flower Moon. Wonderful in that.
SPEAKER_02:He's I think it's one of its one of his top performances. I will say that you know, the stat that you're bringing up about Leo has never missed when his film has been nominated for screenplay. Screenplay.
SPEAKER_00:I mean Titanic again, not a screenplay nominee, not a Leo nominee.
SPEAKER_02:Right? I think he's great in Titanic too. I think he's he's awesome in Titanic. Um, but you know, I prior to you mentioning that, my gut was that I could see Leo actually sh surprisingly missing for this movie because I think that some voters, and again, I don't agree with this personally, but I think some voters would see the performance and see so you know how comic relief laden it is and sort of punish him in a way, kind of think, kind of say, Well, you know what? I I feel like I saw a version of that and once upon a time in Hollywood. What you got nominated for? What you got nominated for. So I don't feel like I had I don't feel like you're bringing something new to the table, and maybe I don't need to nominate you. I mean, you're gonna be here again anyway. The urgency. Right. You know, killers prove that he could get, you know, could have a best picture nominee and not have him included. So I did think that originally. Now that you mentioned that stat, I'm I'm questioning.
SPEAKER_00:I because you I mean, also with Killers of the Flower Moon, you go to Leo at possibly his most unlikable, right? Um, which is why he's fantastic in it, to Leo at his most lovable, right? Which is Leo and Oba, which which really helps. But I do wonder if there could be a nomination for him as that third nomination, um, as sort of uh, okay, well, we'll nominate him and it'll be for both works in a Paul Thomas Anderson film, potentially, because again, that's all killer rumor or whatever. Yeah. Um, so we sort of screwed him for the last PTA film that wasn't credited, and so maybe now they'll include him. Um, but I also think you're right, like at a certain point, Leo is just a master and masterful at getting these films made, so that if we nominate Leo for every time he makes an extraordinary film, we're gonna nominate Leo every time he makes a new film because Leo's not gonna waste his time on a film that isn't extraordinary, right? You know what I mean? So maybe you're right, maybe that will become a factor. But I do think in my gut that we're looking at a minimum of three acting nominations, and so they could double up in any of those categories. Um, but again, I will also say that because the film, because all the actors are in the right place at the right time, Sean hasn't been nominated since his win for milk, Benicio hasn't been nominated since 21 Grams. Um crazy. Regina Hall has never gotten her flowers and is being seen in a new light, which is great. Tiana Taylor, you know, it fulfills all the promise that she showed from 2022, 2023, 1001. 2023 and 1001, right? Um and Chase this Chase is is is is a new discovery because they're all sort of in the right place. I do wonder, and I mentioned this on Twitter and I stick by it if the year is possibly empty enough in terms of projects, movies that voters are passionate about, but if the film can tie the record for five acting nominations, or possibly even exceeded. And so the last film to get five acting nominations was Network, right? And that was from UA United Artists, right? And it won a bunch of those categories, even famously best supporting actors. Faye Dunaway won, um, Peter Finch. Um before that, you had that I think that was 1976, you had Godfather Part 2, 1974, bunch of nominations went for Robert De Niro, Al Pacino went lead, um, Strasbourg, and so uh Talia Shire. And so I do wonder if this film you just again, everyone does not agree on who their favorites are. Everyone agrees that everyone is spectacular, but no one agrees on their favorite, which is an interesting thing to see. And so I do wonder if there's gonna be enough passion out there for all of them to potentially get in. And I think this is why I bring up the chase thing, is because I think chase is what hurts the most in supporting actress because internal competition between two is one thing, internal competition between three is a killer, right? And I do think that best actress is absolutely dead as a category. It's empty, yeah. It's so not good. Yeah, I think this year. And it's not that and it's not that turns aren't bad, it's just the timing's off. Yeah, so Emma Stone is fantastic in um begonia, but the timing is off. Right. Jennifer Lawrence is fantastic in Dime I Love, right, but the timing is off. And either those films competing with Amanda Sayfried if she comes out, Rose Byrne, who's definitely coming out, the timing's off. Right. And so I definitely think that if you move Chase into best actress, you have room to double up in those other categories. And I do think that Chase is so memorable enough that she can make it into best actress. I absolutely I absolutely believe that. Uh you'll be surprised how many people I've spoken to who say Chase has the moment of the movie, right? Um, and I will we'll let you decide that when you watch it. Um but so I do wonder if the film can tie the five, right? And maybe you leave off Chase because she's still too new. She's brilliant, but she's still too new, and she shows such tremendous promise. Or do you break it? Because again, I do think there's gonna be an element here where if I have to consider movies, you know, like um whatever, uh Jay Kelly or Frankenstein, which aren't maybe my favorite acting movies, if I'm just gonna go ahead and want to put the movie that I love the most, one battle as high as possible.
SPEAKER_02:Right. You know, I think it's an interesting theory and we've talked about it, but I also feel like it could just as easily do the opposite, which is because there's not a cons there's not consensus enough that that one uh one nominee or one uh one contender doesn't amass the votes needed to make it into that category, you know, because you know it's it's too splintered, yeah. You know, and I think that could, as you're saying, you're saying that that could help. I could it could hurt. Yeah, it could hurt that things are too splintered, and so there's just not enough of one person or two people or three people because they're split six ways, right? Um, so I think that's certainly something to look at. That's why I'm hesitant. I do think that a lot of the contenders we're we're talking about seem very possible to me. Um, I think Benicio sneaking into supporting actor, I mean, when we get to that category, I think there's an open spot there, and I think someone like Benicio can absolutely take that spot. Um, I think uh Leo, that stat you mentioned right now, is really you know impressing me. I I I I didn't think of it that way. Um, he could definitely be uh another contender that gets in. I think supporting actors is a little tough because even though I can certainly see one battle after another getting two spots there and supporting actors more than I can see sentimental value getting two spots and supporting actors, I think it hurts that that that that Regina Hall has limited things to do. You know, she shines because she's that strong of an actor, but I can't help but feel that even the people who recognize her beautiful work in this movie all come out saying the same thing, which is she's underused.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:And so I think you'd have to have an academy voter who sees the film, recognizes that she's underused, and says, I'm gonna nominate her anyway. And that's tricky. Will they do that? Will they go that far? Will they go that far if they're already nominating three other actors from one battle?
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:They might say, you know, I'm nominating enough people, and she is great, but she didn't, I didn't get enough.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and uh we've already talked about Chase and the and the and the few credits. Her crashing the best actor series is wild. You know, could she get an eye for best actress with such few credits? I don't know. I I I'm not seeing it right now, but let's say we say Teyana Taylor for supporting actress, let's say we say Benicio and Sean um for supporting actor, and let's say we say Leo DiCaprio for uh best actor. That's four. That's four, and that makes a lot of sense. But I wanted to bring up how even with four acting nominees, and I think this matters into how you're gonna figure out if it's gonna get an eye for four, for five, for six. No one feels like a winner. And none of those four, and you want to put Virginia Hall, put her in, and if you want to put Chase Infinity, put her in. Nobody feels like a winner. You know, um, part of that is the characters they're playing. So, for example, Sean Penn's character, uh, he he you know, he's one of our greatest and he does great work. I don't see that winning ever, especially not over something that's sort of tailor-made to win Lex Don's Gars Gard. Right. Leo DiCaprio, I don't see him winning a second Oscar uh for that. Uh unfortunately, I just don't see it. Right. Chase Infinity, if she were to get into Best Actress, I don't see her winning for Best Actress because she has too few credits. Right. And then supporting actress. Regina Hall, again, she has too little to win. So she can't win supporting actress. Then you go to Tiana Taylor. And Tiana Taylor is really interesting because she has a very complexly written character. She has a prickly character. And so if you see the film, you know, she really kind of runs the gamut of, you know, these kind of psychological spaces that are, you know, part enigma, part, you know, uh fascinating, part frustrating, part surprising, but none of it feels like the kind of package that's enough for them for the academy, what they typically award in that category. You know, there's some controversial things about her character that I'm not sure exactly yet how the academy is gonna perceive it. Um uh so I don't think Teon O'Taylor can win for that either. So then we're now we're talking about a nom uh a movie getting four nominations, getting five nominations, getting, as you're saying, six nominations, breaking the record, right, with no winner. And so I think that goes that does a lot to sort of break that theory, in my opinion.
SPEAKER_00:I think that's a fantastic point, and I absolutely love that point. And I think it certainly you know shouldn't make someone who's predicting think about it. But I will say that that was the case for Network, which won a bunch, right? Won a bunch of Oscars off those nominations. It was the case for Godfather too, Robert De Niro won, right? Uh supporting actor. But as a caveat, I will also mention the two previous titles. Um, excuse me, Bonnie and Clyde is there also, and it also won. But there are two titles that are on that history-making five acting nominations that didn't win a single one. And that included Tom Jones, where Albert Finney, the great Albert Finney, never won an Oscar, nominated for lead actor that year. Such a wonderful, wonderful actor, Albert Finney. Um, but so Tom Jones nominated two supporting actresses, two supporting actors, actor doesn't win any, and then Payden Place, which is probably a little bit more divisive. Uh Lana Turner, I believe, nominated there. Um, nominated for actress, two supporting actors, two supporting actresses, and loses it. So it is not completely unheard of of tying that record for five and failing to win.
SPEAKER_02:Right, but maybe it's you're right, and those are those are very impressive stats.
SPEAKER_00:Certainly, those are the that's the 50s, though, in the 70s.
SPEAKER_02:That's what I'm saying. I I feel like in in more modern day, the chances of that happening, I think, are less. Absolutely. And I also want to bring up another point that if we're talking about this uh this film uh capitalizing on so many acting nominations, then you also have to talk about Warner Brothers' other film, which people perceive as being a film that's also contending for acting nominations. If you look at Gold Derby, that's all over the place. So you do have Michael B. Jordan for centers, you got Wunmy Mosaku for centers, you got Joe Ray Lindell for centers, people want Miles Canton for centers. And so I'm gonna what I'm trying to say with all that is that it's very unlikely that Warner Brothers will have two um films vying for acting awards, two acting behemoths. Exactly. Um typically, if you look at their history, when they do have two films in play, one of them is their sort of uh big budget epic uh uh that gets a lot of tech nominations, and then another vehicle is their acting vehicle. Right. And that's the film that gets the acting nomination.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, absolutely.
SPEAKER_02:Um the last time that Warner Brothers had was able to double up in a category um and have them be from two different movies, so not you know, two nominees and supporting actor, for example, from the same movie, but two nominees and supporting actor from two different Warner Brothers films. The last time that happened was I believe 1968, when they had two big, big, big awards players in Bonnie and Clyde and Cool Hand Luke. Two classics, two classic films. Um, and Bonnie and Clyde is one of the films that had five five acting nominations. That was one of the five. If you look at that year in Best Actor, um uh Paul Newman got nominated for Coolhand Luke, and Warren Beatty got nominated for Bonnie and Clyde, and then Best Supporting Actor, George Kennedy won for Coolhand Luke, and Gene Hackman was nominated for Bonnie and Clyde. That didn't happen in actress or supporting actress, only um Bonnie and Clyde was mentioned there. And so that was the last that's the last time that Warner Brothers has had two different films double up in an acting category, and so I think that is a pretty damning stat for both Sinners and One Battle showing up in supporting actors, showing up in supporting actress, showing up in actors, showing up in well, not an actress.
SPEAKER_00:Um I mean, I think that's really interesting that you mentioned that, and of course, that year it happened twice, right? Because they had Beatty and Paul Newman in Best Actor, and then they had Gene Hackman and George Kennedy, right, supporting actors. So it's kind of interesting, you know, a year where they were popular enough to have two of the top five best picture movies, right? They were able to do that. And I think we we both agree that so far this year they will have two of the top five best picture movies One's and one battle. It'll be interesting to see if they can do that. And I'll also say that it was able to win one of the acting categories because George Kennedy won for Coolhead Luke. Yeah, I think that's really fascinating. I will mention something, which is that it's interesting, at least in the actor category, because it's still a competitive actor, but Paul and Warren were already nominees, I believe, by that point. Um, so that might help. Um, that's something that, for example, is gonna hurt a lot of the actresses and supporting actors. I think that's a great segue into best supporting actors. How about we start digging into we do a deep vibe deep dive into that category next?
SPEAKER_02:Right. Okay, let's do that. Uh for me, it's really interesting because of the acting categories, best actor is the most competitive category, but best supporting actress to me is the most fascinating category. Um, because there's a lot of contenders, but no one feels safe, and only one contender feels like a lock. Um, and that's Al Fanning. Alfanning sentimental value, largely helped by you know being one of the top actors of her generation, she's in the right vehicle. Um, so and the and the category is in flux enough that I think she's the only lock in this category. Playing an actress, too. Playing an actress. Um, other than that, it's completely in flux, and you can see basically 10 people getting in for four spots, right? And all of them, every single one of them after Al Fanning has big cons. So big reasons why they could miss. Um, talking about the Warner the Warner Brothers actresses, again, Teana Taylor to me, in my opinion, would seem like the pick from Warner Brothers. I mean, from one battle after another. Um, again, it's just a very attention-calling part, it's a very complex part, and she dominates that first, you know, the prologue.
SPEAKER_00:I said that she's a she's essentially, and I don't think this is much of a spoiler, but she's essentially the lead for the first like 25 minutes. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
SPEAKER_02:You know, it's just the kind of performance is just speeding through, super, you know, uh volatile. And there's a party that wonders how much can we go, you know, with this character that they're they're flying at, you know, 100 miles per hour, you know, and then eventually, of course, it crashes. Right. Um, and so, but then you have uh, as we were saying, Regina Hall um underutilized. Could two of them make it in? That's possible. Chase Infinity, what's gonna happen there? Um and let's say, let's let's bring up, we were mentioning the statistic of the Warner Brothers. We have yet another Warner Brothers contender in this specific acting category in Amy Madigan for weapons, another Warner Brothers film that did well. And so if you're following this logic that we're saying, that Warner Brothers shouldn't get in, you know, more than they shouldn't get more than one movie into supporting actors. So again, you know, Regina Hall, Taylor Taylor, okay, that still makes sense. Taylor Taylor, Amy Madigan, okay, that's not what they do. That doesn't happen. It doesn't happen, it's not common. Um, Regina Hall and Amy Madigan, again, not common. Those are two different movies. Regina Hall and Woody Mosaku, two different Warner Brothers films. Okay, and the last time that happened was 1968.
SPEAKER_00:So you're saying that it's easier for like a studio, even like someone like Warner Brothers, typically to double up in nominations when they both come from the same movie.
SPEAKER_02:Right, exactly. And so we have another Warner Brothers contender that everyone is completely high on, which is uh Amy Madigan, who leaves a big impression in weapons. I mean, we were very surprised post weapons that that was Amy Madigan. Um she's really she really commands the screen in that film, and and she has probably the toughest job of really being able to pull off that character. Right. And she pulls it off. Um, but this is that is not this weapons is not the kind of film, nor is it the type, the kind of character, nor is it the kind of performance that gets nominated.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, exactly. I think for any Oscar. Yeah, Weapons to me reads exactly like A Quiet Place from 2018, where it could be nominated for a sag, it could be nominated for a PGA, a writer's guild award, and still end up with a goose egg on Oscar nomination more. It's just that that's the nature of the film. Right. And so it does not help Amy Madigan the fact that she's in that particular film.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And also that she's by herself. Yeah. You know, that she could potentially get in by herself as opposed to Woonmi Mosaku, who can get in with Sinners and any of the one battle actresses that can get in with their movies, she's by herself. And so I think that's a big detriment. And so it's an interesting, it's a really interesting case. If it were to happen, it'd be kind of cool because it's so outside of what they nominate, but there's a lot going against the nomination for that. No, I'll say one of the biggest things that's going for that nomination is that this category, and we've talked about this before on previous episodes, all the acting categories should have at least one veteran in the category. And by veteran, we mean an actor who's been there before and has been nominated before. Supporting actress only has one log, and she happens to not be a veteran. That's Al Fanny. Also, if you look at supporting actress, the pool of contenders that we have for veterans to occupy that quote unquote veteran spot are limited options. And again, all of them with handicaps. Yes. And so we've talked about Amy Madigan, right?
SPEAKER_00:We'll talk about now, for example. Well, I will say before we before we leave Amy Madigan, so you're saying that Warner Brothers is going to campaign Regina Hall, Tayana Taylor, Chase Infinity, Amy Madigan, Uni Musaku, and potentially Haley Steinfeld. That's that's six supporting actresses. Right, huge. Which is just too many. Way too many. And you're also saying that Warner Brothers typically, if they get two, it's from the same movie. Right. Now, I know that it's not unheard of.
SPEAKER_02:And then and then when they have two films, or even three films, when they have two two films in contention, one is their acting movie. Right. The other one is decidedly not their acting movie.
SPEAKER_00:I know that it's not unheard of for three performances to get in from the same movie in the same category. And so you look at something like, for example, Godfather Part Two, where you had three supporting actors, right? Um, All About Eve, I believe, had three supporting actresses. So it's not unheard of to get all three one battle girls in and put Chase, Regina, and Tayana. That's not Uber crazy. It's happened, but it's rare. It's not common. It's not common. But what about the idea that they get one one battle girl in and they get one Sinners girl in and they get Wood Me in, and then they get Amy Madigan in. Do you think that could happen? No, that's that that that we have not found a precedent for. I do not think, right, that in our research we've been able to find a studio distributor who was able to get three different performances from three different movies into the same acting category. Right. I think the closest we got was maybe the pandemic, but I don't think that you know Netflix has been able to hit, you know, you know, in supporting actress, you if Netflix gets two, it'll be from two different movies, possibly, or maybe two from the same movie. But very rarely are you gonna see um so many nominees from from the same distributor. And so you think that's a big that hurts. That's a big no. Three different nominees from Warner Brothers.
SPEAKER_02:Like more than 50% of the category full of like Warner Brothers films from three different films. Three different Warner Brothers films, even if they've had an amazing year.
SPEAKER_00:And I imagine that it must not help the fact that weapons and sinners are both not necessarily your conventional acting role.
SPEAKER_02:And and I will also say that those particular films, uh Weapons and Sinners, they they hurt each other. You know, because you know, I don't necessarily see weapons as a horror film, but certainly playing with horror elements, and many people would consider it a horror film to some degree. Weapons is clearly a horror film. Solda does that. Right. Weapons is clearly a horror film. So those two films really, you know, hurt each other. So there's no way that I can see Wumi Mosaku and um Amy Madigan. Yeah, let's say that the Warner Brothers stat gets broken and then we since 1968, and now we're gonna put two Warner Brothers films in the supporting actors category. I feel very, very sure that it will not be two horror films.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:To begin with, horror is not great for the Academy for acting. Um it happened last year to a certain degree, maybe if you want to consider the substance a horror film, but there was a lot of subtext happening in that film that was resonating with voters that Weapons doesn't have.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:You know, I think that Sinners has a subtext that I think is you know evocative and it's gonna speak to a large group of voters. Weapons doesn't have that. Weapons is a straight-out horror film through and through.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um and so you know, but Amy Madigan presents a very uh uh again, one her biggest asset is that she is a veteran. She fulfills the veteran spot, she fulfills the veteran spot. She's probably of the veteran options. If we were to just ignore the idea of what gets nominated here, what doesn't get nominated here, and we just look at acclaim, we look at, you know, a performance that that people have been talking about, that people have been clamoring for, she would she would take a spot, you know, because of all the other options, she's the one that seems most, you know, um uh possible if we're taking into account what people think and what people praise. Everyone else has handicaps, I think, bigger handicaps.
SPEAKER_00:Well, so who are some of those other veterans who are trying to angle for that spot?
SPEAKER_02:Right. So I think a big one that you and I have, you know, caught we've talked about it in a previous podcast, is Emily Blunt in the smashing machine. Why is Emily Blunt a very good option here to fulfill the veteran's spot the the veteran spot is because number one, her film number one, she's playing a real life figure. And so on top of fulfilling the veteran spot, these acting categories, and if you look at the trends, this is very true, these acting categories tend to have at least one performance that is based on a real life figure. Right. Um now it's better when those real life figures are more iconic figures, you know. That's that's that's that's true. Historical. And so and so in in the smashing machine, Dwayne Johnson is playing, you know, a more well-known figure than necessarily uh uh Emily Blunt is playing as his girlfriend Don Staples. I get that, but at least she's still a real life figure, at least she's a veteran. Um the problem is from people who've seen the film, we have not seen the film, we're looking forward to it very soon. She has one of she's one of the most underwritten things about the movie that she's able to overcome because she's such a talented actress. Um, that she's able to sort of shade in these dimensions and this depth that's not there on the page. But by and large, I think a lot of people feel like it's an underwritten part. Um, I someone I think Eric Anderson on Twitter referred to it and I told you about it as like a uh hair and nails performance, and that got a chuckle out of me. Um and so, you know, there's there's been, you know, on Twitter, at least film Twitter, you know, people have been a little bit more divided divided on the film, but the film has good critics. It won a directing award at Venice. I think it's gonna do well on the award circuit. I think Dwayne Johnson stands to get his first nomination. That helps the paraphrase. Right, exactly. It helps that Dwayne Johnson can take in Emily Blunt into the supporting actress category. What really hurts Emily Blunt is that she was just there two years ago for Oppenheimer and supporting actress. Usually when they when we get repeats, we've talked about this in other episodes. There should be there should be some kind of category shift. You're going from lead to supporting, supporting to lead. Here it's still a supporting category. And what's worse is that there's a similarity between what she's playing here, which is sort of a supportive partner, even though the archetype is the same. The archetype is the same, even though again it's not your typical supportive partner part, but it's still your supportive partner. That's what she played in Oppenheimer that she got nominated for two years ago.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:And so it's hard for me to see the academy, the the the the act the actress branch say, Yeah, we're going to nominate Emily Blunt just two years after her last her first nomination for Oppenheimer for something, you know, in the similar vein to that.
SPEAKER_00:That sort of gets me to that idea of do we think the Academy is all of a sudden over the moon with Emily Blunt after they waited so many years to finally nominate her? And they didn't nominate her, but like she had to get in with 13 nominations for Oppenheimer. You know what I mean? Right. Um, and so I do think that that makes me question like, even beyond the real person necessity that we have, if you look at a year like 2022, which is rare, a year like 2022 supporting actress did not have any real people. In fact, there was a lack of real people throughout the acting categories, just Alvis and Marilyn Monroe. Um, but so I do wonder like, can the Academy go from snubbing Emily Blunt like for 12 years and to nominating her with one year in between? Right. That's a big question. Right.
SPEAKER_02:But I also say that that might be something that's going in her favor because I think most people would are very were very um felt the same way that her Emily Blunt receiving her first nomination for an Oppenheimer is strange, you know, because she's a very talented actor and because she's been in very good projects where she's deserved uh recognition. And so the fact that Oppenheimer was her first nomination that feels late. So, in a way, some voters might feel, yeah, she might she might be getting her second nom pretty fast and in the same category, but it's because we owe we owe her that because she's behind, sort of like how Scarlet Johansson got two nominations in the same year. Like she should have already been nominated, so it makes sense that she got two in the same year. All right. So I think that's something that she could that that they could use in her favor. Okay. Um, I really like that she's playing a real life figure, and I really like that she can be carried into the category via Dwayne Johnson and the smashing machine, uh, which is more than I can say for something like Amy Madigan, who'd probably be getting in by herself if the film doesn't end up getting on for something like makeup. So Emily Blunt is a good option, but also not a great option. And I will say, you know, as we kind of start talking about the other contenders, it gets hard to see who's gonna win this category, you know, because again, everyone has their cons. I don't think Deana Taylor can win for this for for her sort of you know prickly part. You know, uh Regina Hall, if she gets nominated, I don't think so. Uh I don't see El Fanning winning for this either for sentimental value. At least if Emily Blunt gets nominated, she might have the career and the respect from her peers to parlay that into an eventual win, you know. Um, you know, which would be weird if The Rock doesn't win, which I'm not seeing right now, that the one that ends up winning for that movie is the supportive partner part. Yeah, that's kind of weird. But she's has the career that I think some some voters would say, well, listen, I don't know who to who to position here for a win, so it's gonna be Emily Blunt because of her career. I understand. That helps. Um, another person is Glenn Close for the veteran spot, right? For the veteran spot is Glenn Close for uh Wake Up Dead Man, which got very very good reviews out of TIFF. But the Knives Out franchise has never been nominated for an act for an acting award, despite having stellar casts. Always, always hasn't even been on it for a second ensemble. Uh um, and so there's a part of me that I think voters see the Knives Out franchise as just not an acting player. Maybe because they're so stacked with actors, so it's hard to rally around one, or maybe again, I I don't know exactly what it is. Maybe no one can stand out too much. I don't know exactly what it is, but it's very true that no Knives Out film ever gets ever transcends just a screenplay nomination.
SPEAKER_00:I was gonna say that maybe it's that they lack the pedigree of such a celebrated actor amongst the amongst the ensemble, like Glenn Close is. But if you remember Knives Out, Christopher Plummer is amazing in that film too. And if you really wanted to, you could have nominated Christopher Plummer for that.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_00:And so I I think you're right. There's something here about how voters just do not respect the individual performers of the Knives Out franchise, and that's certainly a stigma that Glenn Close is going to have to battle.
SPEAKER_02:Now, I will say, going in Glenn Close's favor is that if somehow Glenn Close was able to land into this particular supporting actress field, I feel that she would have a huge chance of winning because they could parlay her nomination into a career win. Uh, which she, you know, no everyone wants everyone wants to see Glenn Close win an Oscar already. She doesn't have one. She was snubbed for um what seemed like was going to be her at time for the wife. Um, people who've seen the movie think that this is her best performance since the wife, which is interesting. I don't know. I've heard that she has a couple of Oscar moments. Um, and so in a way, if somehow they were able, if Netflix was able to make this happen, I really feel that this could quickly turn from a surprise nomination into a win for this category, which is nuts. But that's sort of the kind of that's the thing about Glenn Close. You know, if you put her into a category, having, you know, what, nine nominations, eight nominations without a win, people are gonna want to see her win. And if you don't have anyone in this category that you see as someone that, you know, is a definite winner, she's absolutely gonna be catapulted to number one. We had also sort of mentioned this idea where Netflix is pretty good in this category. Netflix supporting actors. Since Netflix has gotten into so into the Oscar race in 2017 with Mudbound, they have only missed Best Supporting Actress once. And they missed it in 2022. For the same the same year that we're saying there was no real the last time there was no real life figure in one of the acting categories.
SPEAKER_00:That's also true. But I will say 2022, it's interesting that we're referencing it because it could be prescient, because that year that they did not get a supporting actress in, they were campaigning Janelle Monet for another knives out movie. For another knives out movie, and Janelle Monet was, you could argue, do because she was already in Moonlight and she was in Hidden Figures and she's excellent in Glass Onion, right? And they still did not manage to get her in. And so I think what the only year Netflix didn't get a supporting actress in?
SPEAKER_02:That's the only year that Netflix has missed, and that's crazy if you think about it.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Um, that's really going for Glenn, because I don't think Netflix has another supporting actress here, really. Well, they they potentially potentially have someone, and we'll get to her. Well, I will say this about Glenn too, and we talked about it also, is I I like just not a veteran nominee, but a veteran actor in this race. And so if you look at Amy Madigan and Glenn Close and the amount of years they have in this industry and the variety and diversity of their work, I think supporting actress like they like to have that. They like to have that Isabella Rossellini and the Jamie Lee Curtis's Angela Bassett's, you know, actors who've been there for so many years and have been in so many different kinds of parts, and then Glenn Close sort of fills that need also, right?
SPEAKER_02:100%. And in a way, it's it's a tough call between a knives out film that's never been uh uh embraced for acting and a horror film that would typically never get embraced in this in this uh in the awards category. Interesting, yeah. Um, and then I think the last veteran that we have to talk about is Ariana Grande for uh Wicked, and it's it's crazy to think of Ariana Grande as a veteran because she got her first nomination for very limited filmography last year for Wicked. I think a lot of people expect her to repeat, but if you look at statistically, both her and Cynthia Revo, you know They're battling history here. There's a there's a big uh there's a big historical problem here. The last time that uh uh an actor was able to have back-to-back nominations from one year to the next, playing the same character was Bing Crosby. Yeah. Um going my way. Going my way in 1945, and he won for lead actor. He was nominated the following year for a different film called The Bell of St. The Bells of St. Mary. Bells of St. Mary. Where he played the same character in 1946. Right. So it's not technically a I I don't I don't think it's a sequel to the film, but he's playing the same character in both films. He got nominated. But that's the only time it has ever happened. We're talking about 1945 and 1946, folks. I mean I mean, you certainly have had moments, you certainly have had in the past um uh character uh actors who are playing the same character get nominated more than once. Right. You know, you think of Al Pacino and The Godfather, right? He got an honor for Godfather part one and Godfather part two, but it wasn't back to back. No, he had a cervical nomination in between, and there was also a category shift. I think he was going from uh from supporting to lead uh for The Godfather. You also had Kate Blanchett, who was able to be nominated as Elizabeth uh for Elizabeth in 1998, and then again, several years later in 2007, I believe. Almost a decade right for Elizabeth the Golden Age. So it never happens back to back. The only time it's happened is 1946. And if it were to happen, if it were to happen, I have a hard time picturing right now that it would be Ariana Grande, who just doesn't have the filmography yet, you know, to sort of I think uh merit uh breaking history.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, I I agree with you. I don't know how how much of a filmography Bon Crosby had when it happened. So that might that's an interesting point. But I will say that that year, and we referenced this on our episode on Best Actress. If you want to check it out, um, you can just um go to the previous episode before this. But you know, what's sort of interesting is that year when Ben Crosby, when he goes back to back those years, when he wins for going my way, he's also competing against his co-star and lead actor, right, who ended up winning supporting active actor. It's the only time in Oscar history where one performance is nominated as both supporting and lead. And so after that, they said, Yeah, we should probably make a rule that we can't have Daniel Kaluya nominated as lead for Judas and the Black Messiah and supporting for Judas and the Black Messiah. Right. Uh and so like it's just so it was a weird time in general, right? You know, the last time that that history broke.
SPEAKER_02:I do think that some people see Wicked as an entity, so in a way that kind of I think they explain the possible, you know, history breaking thing as, you know, it makes sense because Wicked is an entity that's just split in two. But the point is that it doesn't happen back to back. And if you look at the amount of actors that even get nominated back to back, Coman Domingo did it last year uh with um Sing Sing, right? I think it's a very small chalamet's gonna try to do it this year. It's a very small group that they sort of, you know, I don't know for lack of a better word, allow to get nominated back to back. Right. You know, and I think your filmography and your presence in the film industry has a lot to do with whether they want to do that or not.
SPEAKER_00:We mentioned this in the Best Actress episode, also, that historically we actually have had three performers go back to back in nominations from 09 to 010 when Jeff Bridges, Cullen Firth, and Jeremy Renner were all nominated back to back. Um interestingly, they never strict it was never strictly for the same categories. And so if you have Chalamet, Cynthia, and Ariana get in, not only do they go back to back, they go back to back in the exact same categories, no category shift. So I don't think that that has happened. Right.
SPEAKER_02:And I also say that in the in the in the example you're bringing up, they're not playing the same character. Yes. And it's not the same franchise, they're different films. Yes. You know, I think you know, a big handicap here that we're talking about is that it is the same character and that it is the same film.
SPEAKER_00:I kind of look at it like remember Ian McCallan for Fellowship of the Ring? He was never really able to be nominated after that for either Two Towers or Return of the King. In fact, none of the Lord of the Rings actors were able to do that. And I think that touches upon another factor here for Ariana Grande, which is not unlike the weapons thing, which is gonna be an interesting headline if any of this gets any traction. But playing a witch, you know, is not necessarily the most Oscar-baked role. It was nominated, but will that be the role that goes, would that be the role that breaks history? I guess is the question. And I do wonder like, could you really have a category with Aunt Cladys and Glinda the Glinda the Good? I have a really hard time. I mean, I know that it's it it's it's gonna, like I said, it's gonna be a headline, but I do wonder how much we can stretch our sort of non-Oscar role inclusion here. Right. And I don't even want to put Wound Me because Wound Me is a whole nother thing here. Right. Um, so I think that that's another element going against it. I will say one veteran that you maybe overlooked, still to be determined how much of a factor they're gonna be, is Gwyneth Paltrow. Oh, yes, like from Marty Supreme.
SPEAKER_02:Gwyneth Paltrow, I think, is a very interesting case because it would be a category shift, which lead to supporting, which is uh uh an asset. Right. Um, we have yet to see the movie. We don't know how big of a part she's gonna play. I do know that I've heard some rumors from the cinematographer that's that this movie has like 40 characters, which is very safty. Uh exactly. If you see the safty films, they're big, they tend to have ensembles um where everyone contributes a spark to it. But this they're usually centered around one anchor. Right. So if you look at Uncut Gems, there's several actors in that film. D. Menzel is great in that film. Kevin Garnett. Uh Kevin Garnet. Yeah, Kevin Garnett's great. So, but there's one anchor, and the one anchor is was Adam Sandler. In this case, it's Timothy Chalamet. And the way their films tend to work, there's there tends to be one anchor, and around them, there's all these little colorful spots, but that's all they are colorful spots.
SPEAKER_00:And even here in this movie, you have Gwyneth Paucher, right? But you have Fran Dresher right there. Right, exactly. Right? Um, who is uh president of the SAG, but you also have um, I believe her name is uh Odessa, yeah, right? Um, who's actually the the daughter, I believe, of um the wonderful uh actress uh Pamela Adlon. Oh and so, you know, again, just this idea that Marty Supreme is going to be an ensemble. Right, right.
SPEAKER_02:So I'm not sure about how much Gwyneth is going to be given. I also think that voters, I think, might be a little skeptical to welcome her back so soon. And I say so soon, you know, it's been several years, but she's taken sort of a break in between, you know, the last time she was in a film. Hasn't been too active. You know, she hasn't been active, she's been a little bit more active with her lifestyle brand. I don't know if voters see that as a positive or as a negative. I think that that played a part in Angelina Jolie not getting nominee last year. I think the fact that voters, you know, see her every now and then, you know, I think made it less attractive to them. Yeah. To want to cite her for another lead actress nomination.
SPEAKER_00:Right. I mean, um, someone who's been waiting longer than Gwyneth for another nomination is technically Amy Madigan, right? Who got on in the 80s, Gwyneth won in the 90s. But I will say something to her advantage, right? To Gwynneth, and we've talked about this sometimes, is the idea that if you win an acting Oscar, you tend to be nominated again at some point somewhere down the line. Very seldom is it that you're left out.
SPEAKER_02:Um if you look at the recent history, one of the few people to have yet to be nominated again is Gwyneth Paltrake. Exactly. And someone like Halle Berry.
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. And but but usually, like even you know, actresses who are who get less parts. You look at uh Helen Hunt when she got nominated for her wonder performance in the sessions. Sometimes voters, when they have the opportunity to nominate an Oscar winning actor again, and it's been some time, they don't pass that off. That could potentially be working Gwynniff's advantage is that you know, given her her status as an Oscar winner, statistically speaking, at some point she should be nominated again.
SPEAKER_02:100%. I'm just not sure this is the vehicle, and I'm just not sure after an acting break that that's the right moment. Right. Um, again, I just don't think that that's a very attractive option for voters, but we'll see. Maybe she has a great part. And I do like that she would. I mean, if Marty Supreme is a player, I do like that she would get in with her lead actor. And so in a similar sort of Emily Blunt kind of way, she's sort of supporting the lead. That's also one reason why I do absolutely not see both Emily Blunt and Guenapaltro getting in in the same category in the same year because they do too much of the same thing. I agree. They so they they support their lead. So I think it's if if it if it does happen, it's one or the other.
SPEAKER_00:It's Emily Blunt or Gwyneth Paltro. I mean, I will say that although it's not common, A24 did have that fantastic year, 2022. And again, we keep referencing the same year. I wonder if it's really going to be tied into this year, but they got um three performances in, two from Everything, Everywhere All at Once, and one for Hong Chao in um The Whale. I do wonder if part of the caveat here is that The Whale, and in the fact that Brendan Fraser won and Everything Everywhere All at Once, which was the big winner that year for Best Picture, those two films are not necessarily Marty Supreme or The Smashing Machine. So I I I think it's not impossible, but I my gut says the same thing as yours, which is that they do too much of the same thing.
SPEAKER_02:Right. I'll also say that the trend recently, post I think 2019 or 2020, is you know, this supporting actress category tends to have at most one veteran.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:And so I think I think we've been seeing a trend where post-2020 they've been wanting to be as inclusive as they can. They want new people to be nominated. Right. They want new people. And so that you've seen something like supporting actress have one veteran only. Right. You know, in 2021, it was um Judy Dench only. In 2022, it was Angela Bassett only. In 2023, it was, I believe, uh Judy Jody Foster only. And in 20 and last year, 2024, it was Felicity Jones. So the trend right now is to have as many new people, I think, as we can have. And so, yes, supporting actress is pretty volatile, pretty in flux, but there's a very good chance that they're just gonna be okay with one veteran and not having more than one. It could be a year where they have more than one, but that's been the trend at least.
SPEAKER_00:Right. I completely agree with you. They may just be happy with getting one performance to fulfill the veteran spot and inviting as many people as possible, especially when they have the opportunity to spotlight new performers, up-and-coming, you know, um actors. So I think that that's part of it.
SPEAKER_02:And on that note, I think we can mention a contender like Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman. She was notoriously snubbed in 2019 for hustlers. Um in Kiss of the Spider Woman, she gets to embody some of the you know greatest 1940s, 1950s starlets. You're seeing her in the light, then you don't typically see her. We don't typically see her in period pieces, you know, with these Colleen Atwood, you know, dazzling costumes and these, it's her first musical, which is crazy. Um, and uh, you know, we don't see her sort of inhabiting this starlet space, you know, you know, she absolutely gives these, you know, uh magnificent sort of uh 1940, 1950s vibes that I think could speak to voters, especially older voters. Um uh it's true that unlike Hustlers, she has a film that's not as critically acclaimed as Hustlers. Um, it's sort of mixed, leaning on positive, but it's not the unanimous praise that Hustlers was. We also have the the possibility that the film is not gonna be as big of a box office hit as Hustlers was. Um uh, you know, we'll see soon, it's coming out soon. So all those are things that she's gonna have to sort of contend with.
SPEAKER_00:But you trade it off, right? Because in and of itself, it's a more sort of legacy prestige project. That's the other thing, yes, that it's a legacy project. You're working with Bill Condon, you have a a movie who has luck in this category, who has a lot of luck with this category and actually has made big musicals that they've embraced, right? Um, but also there's just this idea that it's uh adapted from Broadway, which really helps, and you have the legacy of Cheetah Rivera there, but then you also have the fact that the movie was nominated for Best Picture in 1985, it even won an Oscar for William Hurt for Best Actor, right? And so I do think you it's a trade-off, right? You trade off, you know, wonderful Lorene Scafari and wonderful critics, and you trade that off for you know having this pedigree and this sort of visual aspect and this old school Hollywood that's gonna appeal to a more classic type of voter. Um, and I think that's actually something that's really going in her advantage, right?
SPEAKER_02:Right. And I also think, you know, if we're talking about putting in, you know, or embracing new voters, it's really odd to have someone like Jennifer Lopez not have an Oscar nomination yet, especially when you look at her filmography and you look at, you know, uh very attention-calling titles like Out of Sight, like Selena, that's still considered an iconic film by many, right? Like Hustlers, just most recently. It's kind of weird to see her at this point in her career, three decades into her career, where she is yet to have an Oscar nomination. That's crazy.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um I think that also voters would like the idea of including, you know, some um Latin American performers. Exactly.
SPEAKER_02:And Kiss of the Spider Woman is one of the probably biggest contenders to sort of be able to parlay its, you know, uh Latin American talent at the foreground. Yeah, you know, that and and I'll also say that I think to Jennifer's uh benefit, you know, Kiss of the Spider-Woman is coming out at a very important time in our historical landscape where the queer community is being very marginalized politically. It's a very volatile, dangerous time for members of the queer community, members of the transgender community. This film in particular deals very directly with transgender issues um in a way that the 1985 film uh was more scared to go. It goes to these um uh it goes to these places, it's very queer forward. And so I think just thematically, the film stands to resonate in this particular period of time. It's an important film, I think, for this particular period of time. And I think embracing her for nomination and supporting actress in a way is embracing the film's themes and what the film is supporting, the cause it's supporting. And so I think that's another asset that's part of her narrative and her contention.
SPEAKER_00:I also think that, like again, you know, as opposed to performances like Wake Up Dead Man or Weapons, I do think that there is going to be, you know, moments, pockets in this sort of award circuit where you're going to uh congratulate the achievement of both Diego Luna and especially Tonya 2. And so there's this idea that she's not really, you know, sort of by herself. She's in she's among these really other great performances. Right. Um the categories might be very competitive, but I certainly think that the quality of the performance is gonna have Tonya 2 on people's minds throughout. Right.
SPEAKER_02:And also that the film, you know, whether or not how many nominations it can get is still a question mark, but it certainly has a pedigree that, for example, something like Hustlers didn't have. Right. You know, we have the Colony and Wood uh at wood uh costumes, but we also have the production design, yeah, both kinds of which is attention calling, you know, and recreating this 1940s, 1950s space. You know, um uh we have a possible original song uh that's uh that would be a nomination for Candor and Ebb. Yeah, which I can't help but think, you know, some songwriters in the song in the in the original song branch are going to want to nominate Candor and Ebb. Yeah, you know, so there's a potential for this film to get more than one nomination that I think some people are sleeping on. I agree, you know, that makes her a more formidable, formidable contender than, for example, someone that on paper seems like a more formidable one, like Amy Madigan, because of all the buzz that's around her, but she might get in by herself, right? You know, um to the city. Exactly. Right, exactly. Legacy project versus horror film. So I think that there's a lot of uh um assets that are in the Jennifer Lopez contender um that I think people are not paying attention to.
SPEAKER_00:Right. I mean, I I certainly think it it's it's right there. Um, I think someone new, also, you know, really talented, um, has had a really good filmography. I wonder if she's in the right project or not. We're gonna have to see when it comes out. But like some people have been talking about Rebecca Ferguson.
SPEAKER_02:Right, and House of Dynamite. That's something that's someone else that I wanted to mention in terms of this uh stat that you know Netflix hasn't missed. That's right. Only in 2022. Another supporting actress contender that they do have if they don't go the Glenn Close route is Rebecca Ferguson for House of Dynamite, who I think uh people have been uh praising as you know, she leaves an impression. She's in the the She's in the she's in what people consider the you know the the first chapter, the the the strongest chapter of the film. We did hear some rumblings on Twitter that there's some people who are not necessarily happy with the stuff.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, we we we sort of alluded to that in the beginning with New York. We'll cover that next week.
SPEAKER_02:We'll cover that next week. Um but you know, uh I wonder if a film and we've talked about this. I wonder if a film like House of Dynamite can really get any actor in. I mean, it's stacked with with an incredible cast from people who've yet to be recognized as well, Idris Alba, Tracy Lutz, people who can certainly make a play for their categories, but maybe Catherine Bigelow has created the kind of film where everyone is sort of on an even ground.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:And if you look at Catherine Bigelow's history, she she tends to have good performances always in her films, but they don't tend to translate into acting nominations. And the Her Locker, her biggest film yet, it only got one acting nomination. Yeah. Uh for Zero Dark 30, it only got one acting nomination. And both of them were for lead. Yeah. So it's sort of this idea that in her, you know, well-made, you know, well-calibrated ensembles, there's an anchor. And that's sort of the anchor is the is is the one that grabs all the attention. And he or she's made a film that doesn't have an anchor. Right. She or she's made a film where there is no lead, right, and all the chapters are segmented. Right. And in a way, you're only able to follow this actor, this character for 18, 20 minutes, and then you move on to the next. It just doesn't feel like the kind of structure that lends itself to acting nominations.
SPEAKER_00:I think you're right on the money on that point. And I'll also say that, you know, after they're hurt locker, the more her films have sort of experimented with this idea of, you know, examining process and examining procedure, whether it's Zero Dark 30 or House of Dynamite, the more she has a wonderful ensemble, you know, Ky Chandler, James Gandolfini in Zero Dark 30, Jason Clark, uh, a lot of great performances, uh, Joy Dritton. Yet nonetheless, because they're so concentrated on procedure, on process, right, you know, on sort of the systemic flow of the narrative, right? It doesn't necessarily just lend itself to a performance um that's gonna draw everyone's attention. Certainly Jessica Chastain is there and she's a surrogate for the audience, but I think we're missing that in this movie. And again, this movie which covers, you know, again, the procedure, the process of what happens when you're sort of um put into this nuclear ambush. I think that's something that's going to hurt Rebecca Ferguson, even if even if people say she is memorable in it.
SPEAKER_02:Right, exactly. And so, you know, then you have some, you know, uh outside contenders, you know, Kirsten Dunst got uh good mentions, good mentions for Roofman. How much is Roofman a thing? I'm not so. Maybe yeah, might it's gonna it's coming out soon. We'll see. Um, maybe a big box office could help. Um, she did recently get nominated, exactly, and and and it hasn't been that many years since. And it took forever to finally nominate the great Kirsten Dunst. There's no category shift, and then you have um uh Nina Haas and head of, which are people uh premiered at TIFF that got generally good reviews, um, and people actually were very, very much, you know, uh taken with her performance, yeah, taken with her performance. Um, but there's a big question mark as to how Amazon or an I mean uh Amazon MGM is gonna handle that movie. Right now it seems like their big play is after the hunt, and that film is gonna get theater releases, right, you know, all over the country. And um they've put sort of HETA on the back of the room. They're gonna put they're gonna saddle HETA with like uh maybe like you know, New York and LA only, and then go straight to Prime. Yeah, which doesn't result in acting combinations.
SPEAKER_00:And I think the same thing, sort of after the hunt seems to be Amazon MGM's big play, and then um Aut Every has her fans, but I think that's the film is just not taking off the critics the way they anticipated. Right.
SPEAKER_02:And also if you I mean if you look at that film, I think you know people were more excited about you know Julia Roberts, possibly Michael Stolberg.
SPEAKER_00:But even then they're gonna have to like wrestle to get those spots. Right, right. And so I mean, is that everyone for supporting actress then?
SPEAKER_02:Um, I think those are the main contenders, you know. I mean, Haley's timefield, like we talked about Wound Me and Haley. Yeah, yeah, can they turn that into a nomination for another horror film? Yeah, it's tough because Haley's already she was already there, right? For she well, I mean, in in some sense, she could be a veteran, you know, because she was already there. That's really again like the Ariana Grande thing. It's hard to think about these young actors as these young performers as veterans already. Um uh, but you know, it doesn't feel it doesn't feel I mean, Wound Me has the bigger spotlight in that movie, doesn't feel like Hayley Steinfle has enough to get in for that movie. So I think that we've mainly run through the contenders, and as you can see, all over the place. This is a this is I think this category is fascinating. And it's hard, it's it's uh like I beat my brain trying to figure it out like who who are the final five? Because right now I've got one and that's it. Um, and even when you look at this wide field of contenders, it's hard because we've just mentioned many cons to all of them. It's hard to see a winner, you know, which makes it a particularly exciting but frustrating race because where's the winner here?
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, you know, it's tough. Yeah, I I completely agree. Um, and so I mean, what are we thinking right now for supporting actress?
SPEAKER_02:Right now for supporting actress, it's I mean, again, it's really tough right now, man. But I think Al Fanning is the only lock. I think possibly we can get in. We need we need at least one veteran, I think, especially since there are options, there's just not great options.
SPEAKER_00:I will say in the year 2011, they went veteran less. Oh no, I'm wrong. No, no, because Janet McTearn. Janet McTear or Albert Nas. Right, exactly. So we need a veteran.
SPEAKER_02:We need a veteran here. Again, there are no many, there are not many great options. Right now, I'm gonna say that the veteran spot should go to a supporting performer that is lifting up their lead. So I would say either Emily Blunt or Gwyneth Paltrow. I don't love the acting break from Gwyneth Paltrow. I give the edge to Emily Blunt because she's playing a real life figure.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Okay, that's two. Um, I someone from One Battle has to get in. I'm gonna say right now that Tiana Taylor, I I can we've talked about this. I can especially see her getting a lot of critics' awards mentions. I think she can ride that into a nomination if she ends up missing some of the bigger uh precursors. So I'm gonna say Tiana Taylor. Then it gets really tough. But I'm gonna say at this moment I like the category, and if you look back at supporting actors, I like there being a sort of you know, a presence from an actor that's been in the business for a while, you know, and yes, Glenn Close fits that bill and would be an easy winner, I guess, because of her career, but I don't love the knife out, knives out thing. So I'm gonna give the edge to Amy Madigan for another Warner Brothers film that you know, Warner Brothers has had an incredible year. I can certainly see two Warner Brothers films get in right now. At least Amy Madigan would fulfill a veteran spot, sort of uh the presence of someone who's been in the business for a long period of time. Um, and you know, people have seen her work, you know, for for many, many years. She's been at it since the 80s.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, so I'm gonna say right now, Amy Madigan, even though I don't feel great about it. And then I'm gonna say that Jennifer Lopez has the right ingredients to make it into this category after being snubbed in 2019. She's completing one of those cycles that we talk about, you know, um, uh, that often happens with these actors who miss previously, and then after about a seven-year period, more or less, they have another opportunity to bat and they get in. There's Broadway, there's Cheetah Rivera, there's the Sonia Braga of it all, there's the 1985 film of Kiss of the Spider Woman. There's Bill Conan, there's muke, there's musicals, there's again Broadway, there's Legacy, um, there's Colleen Atwood. It just feels like there's a lot of ingredients that are helping her get into this final five. And so I'm gonna say Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, uh I think all that makes a lot of sense to me. Um, I do think that you have two veterans, and so that's the one thing to sort of look at is do we really need to? What would you say? What would you say? I I wonder because like I think Emily Blunt should be there for the real person. I think who the hell is gonna win this anyway? But at the same time, if you do put Amy Madigan, do you need Emily Blunt? I mean, we have gone all fictional 2022, just pure fiction. That's true. Um, and so I would probably say that if if there is a it's really it's a paradox, but I think Emily Blunt would be the favorite to win, and she's also the person who I think is easiest to give out because you don't necessarily need that veteran spot. Um, and so the paradox that's the paradox. But uh if you take out Emily Blunt, then I think it's a perfect situation to nominate a new person. That said, the people who come to mind for me are Woon Me. And can you really have Wound Me and Amy? I I don't know. I don't think so. And then what about Regina Hall? Because I agree with you. I think Tiana Taylor is gonna get the lion's share of critic awards, you know, New York film, critic circle and things like that. But when it comes time for the sag, I can't imagine you know, and the actors union being more excited to nominate Regina Hall finally. Again, she just has that many wonderful years in the industry, and again, to me, it's just sort of like right time, right place, right? Where like um she she could have the edge over Tayana Taylor, who does not have the best filmography and who's just starting out, right? So sort of her own, you know, decade, uh two decade plus career in the industry, you know, since we're talking about Shakespeare and Love. I mean, we're talking about when she played Scary Movie, 1998, yeah, Shakespeare and she's making fun of it. So, you know, she's been in the industry that long. And so it could it be Regina Hall, but then you have you know, three Warner Brothers girls. Can that really happen with Amy Madigan? The category is all over the place, it's really exciting to watch, but I think that's a really great rundown as to where things stand, right? And so let's shift that because there's a lot of similar things going on, maybe in a less competitive category, which is best supporting actor.
SPEAKER_02:You know, best supporting actor, I think, is an easier category because, in my opinion, we've got four spots locked and loaded, and there's really just one spot that right now, at this particular moment, I see honestly between two people.
SPEAKER_01:Okay.
SPEAKER_02:And that is, I think the locks are Stun Skarsgard, who I think is by and large the front runner to win this category for best supporting actor. Okay. I think Sean Penn is absolutely in for one battle after another. Okay. I think Paul Meskell is going to make uh is very likely to get nominated for best supporting actor. I like that it's a category shift. Yes, not many years have passed. Not official yet, but I will say people are suspecting category shifts.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, all of this changes if he goes lead.
SPEAKER_02:All of this go changes if he goes lead. But if he stays supporting, it's smart because it's a category shift that goes in his favor. Again, it hasn't been many years since 2022, but I like that he's playing Shakespeare. I think that adds, you know, real guy, a real person to the category, which again is important. Um, I think they like Paul Mescal. I remember like after his after Sun nomination, he was already getting an award at the Academy Museum for his career. I think that's an actor they pay attention to. I think that's an actor they're excited about, and I think that's an actor that he's in the right vehicle, which he is this year with Hamnet. They're gonna be more than happy to nominate him. Um, so I see him as a definite nominee right now. And then I see Adam Sandler, who got very good reviews um for uh uh Jay Kelly. Uh some people even liked him more than they liked the movie. Um, I think that he's in the right vehicle, the kind of film that voters are going to watch and respond to, not like Uncut Gems. It's a category shift. You know, he was going in lead, now he's going to the supporting category. I think with someone like a filmography like Adam Sandler that's sort of spotty and has some titles that are questionable for Academy voters, you know, the maybe the snobbier Academy voters. I mean, we all love the Adam Sandler comedies. They don't. Um, I think it's easier to get into supporting actor. I think it helps that he's surrounded by people like George Clooney, like Laura Dern, like Noah Baumbach, like Netflix. Right. You know, I think all those things are going to help him land his first nomination. And it's about damn time because Adam Sandler is a wonderful actor with an incredible amount of depth to him. Anyone who's seen his filmography knows that. You know, if you're only paying attention to the comedies, then you're you're missing out.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and so I think that people are ready to welcome him into his first nomination. I think he's in as well, and at least one spot open.
SPEAKER_01:Okay.
SPEAKER_02:And I really like what we were talking about how Benicio del Toro just sh- I freaking love Benicio in this fucking movie. I think he's my favorite performance in the movie. Um, and again, it's just so lived in and so effortless. And again, it's very poignant in the few moments he has, they're very poignant and timely. Um, and so I think that he could, as you were saying earlier, I think he could be a definite nominee in this category. But if it weren't him, I would really look to someone like Jacob Alordy and Frankenstein. Because I think Frankenstein is shaping up to be a serious contender for Netflix, considering the tech nominations that it might end up getting.
SPEAKER_00:Fresh off that TIFF win, too.
SPEAKER_02:That TIFF runner-up, which surprised a lot of people after had kind of a weird critical reception at Venice and Tallyred and Tally Red as well, ended up being number two at Toronto, people's choice. That's no small thing. I think a lot of people are excited about it. I think a lot of people see Frankenstein, Guillaume Lontoro, perfect marriage. I think they'd be more than happy to spotlight that perfect marriage. Um, and so I think uh, you know, Jacob Alordi got a shitload of mentions for his turn in Frankenstein. I think a lot of people loved his performance. A lot of people loved a lot of people loved what he was doing with the character. Um, and he was consistently mentioned as a highlight. And so if we're talking about Frankenstein as a major, you know, best picture player for Netflix, which I think some people are sleeping on, and it's a film that might do well in these uh in an array of tech categories like cinematography and production design and class design and original score, you know, we're talking about a a bigger tally for a film like Frankenstein. And if you add to that, that one of the highlights is Jacob Alordi's performance, and it's in and of itself is transformative, you know, because it's not like you know, the very hot guy from Euphoria, you know, it's it's a different Jacob Alordi that you're seeing. Right. I think he stands to impress a lot of people with his performance in Frankenstein. And if the film ends up being a best picture player with these tech nominations, I think he can easily slip in as the acting nomination for the film.
SPEAKER_00:I mean, also you have a little bit of that element, right? Of can they really nominate the creature from Frankenstein? That's another sort of we were talking about it with Amy Madigan, right?
SPEAKER_02:Well, I mean, but I also think Frankenstein having the sort of historical, you know, significance significance that it has is not the same thing as Amy Madigan and weapons. I I I absolutely agree that could be the case.
SPEAKER_00:Um, what about some other sort of fringe or periphery contenders that you shouldn't sort of dismiss? I know you're a big fan of Billy. Oh, yes.
SPEAKER_02:You know, I've heard up from I haven't seen the film, but I've heard from a lot of people that Billy Crutup has a standout couple of moments in J. Kelly, from what I've heard, the kind of standout moments that are going to resonate with actors, and again, actors vote for actors. Yeah. And so if you're having a moment in a film that actors are watching because it's you know surrounded with actors that actors like, and you have a couple of you know uh scene-stealing moments, that might be enough to to to get into into uh an open slot for supporting actors. So I definitely like Billy Crowd up. What do you think?
SPEAKER_00:I mean, I think that's an interesting point because the big question is can he really double up with Adam? And I you know, I wonder if Billy is possibly more respected as an actor, unfortunately, because of his filmography. Uh remember, Billy wasn't almost famous in the year 2000, and so maybe that's a factor, but can Benissio double up? I'm sorry, can one battle can the one battle guys double up with the J. Kelly guys? That's maybe something to talk about. But then the other two Warner Brothers guys are there too, right? Because Delroy Lindo has his fans and Miles, right?
SPEAKER_02:Delroy Lindo was uh snubbed. Uh many people believe he was snubbed for uh his performance in the five bloods.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I mean he has a veteran career, right?
SPEAKER_02:He has a veteran career, he's never been nominated. Um, so I think he's always going to be a dark horse. He was in the center house rules, right? Right, exactly. I mean, he's been around for a very long time and never had uh a moment to get a nomination. The problem with Darolindo, I think, is that unlike the five bloods, you know, where he's given this huge monologue that he that he delivers, you know, in the five in Sinners, you know, he's kind of basically the comic relief of the film, and he sort of takes a backseat to a lot of the other performers, you know, certainly Wound Me, certainly the double performance from uh Michael B. Jordan, and even someone like Miles Canton. You know, I feel like he really takes a backseat to all those other actors. So I think a little bit he kind of gets lost in the in the fray a bit.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that's the disadvantage he has. I mean, but then I mean, I think Miles is gonna have his fans too. Like, I I kind of like put them together, like Chase is a huge breakout this year, Tony 2 is a huge breakout this year. Miles is also another huge breakout this year, and he's he's gonna have his fans.
SPEAKER_02:I think they all got mentioned at the varieties, you know, 25 and the actors or you know, actors to watch for 2025. It makes a lot of sense.
SPEAKER_00:It makes a lot of sense, and I do think that you know, Miles benefits from having what I would call, you know, the the meatier part compared to Delroy Lindo, right? Right, and so that that could work in his favor. And then I also think, like, in terms of veteranship, Diego Luna is another actor who he has the role, and this is a role that I think I think got infamously snubbed in 1985 when they didn't nominate Raul Julia for it, right? Um, and this time he's in supporting actor, but he has again he has the career, and he's I would argue at like the sort of this moment where he's had a little bit of a resurrection, right? He's having a big moment here with Andor. Exactly. He was snubbed by the Emmys. I remember he hosted Jimmy earlier, and it was a fucking great show.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Um, so I do think that you have to watch out for Diego, and he has a really wonderful part. Again, it's a it's a movie that you know people are split between who their favorites are. Some have some love Jennifer, some love Tona, some love Diego Luna. So I definitely think you need to keep an eye out for him.
SPEAKER_02:Um I know that there's you know Jeremy Strong, who's also kind of supporting his lead in uh Jeremy Allen White. Right. Um, I'm still uh in the Springsteen Delivery from Nowhere film. I'm still sort of split of where that film's gonna end up. You know, based on the reception I've heard, I can easily see it getting into lead actor, I can easily see it getting into nothing.
SPEAKER_00:But can you imagine if they nominate four performers from the year before in the exact same category? I think that's unheard of. That's crazy. That's unheard of. Because it would be Jeremy Strong, potentially, Timothy Chalamet, potentially, Ariana Grande, potentially, and Cynthia Revo. And I feel like if that's the case, people are gonna get upset. Yeah, because you left some people on the chopping block who deserve some serious consideration. Right. And you know, you're almost giving us what is that, like one-fifth of the category. One fifth of all the acting nominees came from last year. Right. And I don't think that's gonna sit well. So I think that's something that's really going. I mean, if he had been snub for The Apprentice, I would say that he's definitely gonna be 100%.
SPEAKER_02:I agree, 100%. And so I think I think that the supporting actor category is not as tough as you know, supporting actors and actor.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, I think again, those four spots are pretty firm. It's just that one spot. And for me, can someone like Jacob Elordi surprise and get nominated with Frankenstein? Or can Benicio de Toro sort of sneak in with a really great part from one battle and occupy that fifth slot?
SPEAKER_00:You know what I don't necessarily love, and to me, like I have to watch out because something sort of is sort of suspect to me because Paul Meskell got in, you know, for After Sun, and he didn't necessarily have the globe or the sag to back up that nomination. Sort of like Ryan Gosling. Remember when he got in for half Nelson?
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_00:And then he had everything he needed for Lars and the Real Girl the year right after. Talk about consecutive nomination in the same category, right? You know, like Cynthia Reeve and Ariana Grande, um he missed for Lars and the Real Girl. Right. Right? You didn't need to nominate him. Right. Um, and so there's something about Paul Meskell that you know makes me a little bit wary in terms of like, can this really happen? But when you say that there's gonna be potentially a category with Paul Meskell and Jacob Alorty, then I get very suspicious. Yeah, that's true. That's right. You know, I would wonder if it's cues a little young. I wonder. Yeah, I agree. It's something uh it's something uh take into account. Right. And so right now, we what would you say? I think right now, um, for supporting actor, I like the four that you're very comfortable with. So that's Stelen Scarsgaard for sentimental value, that's Sean Penn for one battle after another, Paul Mesko for Hamnet, which is a four front runner for Best Picture. Then you have Adam Sandler finally getting in for Jay Kelly, and I think I I really like the double nomination here for Benisha Lotoro and him getting in for one battle. I just I think he's such a respected actor, and it's such a memorable turn in the film and such a memorable part of the film that it's hard for me to imagine that voters are gonna be able to shake it off. I think it also helps that he had a great year, right? You know, um, so I think that's where the five stand right now. But I definitely think that everyone you mentioned is going to make a case for themselves. So it's something to look out for as we you know head into October and November and the films officially start premiering to the general movie going public.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Which is another phase in and of itself.
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. Um, so I think that about covers everything for today.
SPEAKER_02:Um make sure to go to our website where you can see our full predictions, not just for the ones we've discussed over the last couple of episodes. Right. But you can see screenplay, you can see the tech categories. We'll we'll have um international film and animated film up shortly. Yeah. Um, and so there's you can look at all of our thoughts and all the contenders that we're seeing in the in the in the landscape.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And so that's framesandflickr.com. Um, remember to follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon, and we look forward to speaking next week. We're gonna get releases for the smashing machine, more numbers for one battle after another. We're gonna hear more word from New York Film Festival. Maybe we'll go into that cat in uh specifically into that festival, see what some other people are saying from there. Um, and I think that covers us for today. Right? Um, so uh thank you for listening. I'm Joseph. And I'm Jules. And we're signing off till next time. It's been a pleasure.
SPEAKER_02:The music on this episode, entitled The Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and IncompTech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution 3.0. H T P colon forward slash forward slash creative commons.org forward slash licenses forward slash i forward slash three point zero disclaimer the academy of anonymous podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the academy of motion picture art and science.