Oscar Season 2025-2026: HOUSE OF DYNAMITE in Trouble; FRANKENSTEIN Surges; SMASHING MACHINE and SPIDER WOMAN struggle; MARTY SUPREME Wows in New York

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE awards contention very vulnerable after it disappoints with domestic premiere
• The secret Oscars math behind why Guillermo del Toro’s FRANKENSTEIN is actually Netflix’s strongest contender
• Jacob Elordi vs. Paul Mescal for Best Supporting Actor?
• Luca Guadagnino misfire AFTER THE HUNT leaves Julia Roberts grasping at straws for Best Actress
• Ethan Hawke’s BLUE MOON hopes to outmaneuver Jeremy Allen White’s SPRINGSTEEN for biopic spot in Best Actor
• Can Daniel Day-Lewis survive mixed reviews for his big-screen return in ANEMONE
• Two Oscar favorites battle box-office woes: Can THE SMASHING MACHINE and KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN mount a comeback with voters? 
• New York Film Festival previews the remaining Oscar contenders
• Searchlight Pictures buries IS THIS THING ON before it even screens, picks up THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE
• MARTY SUPREME and Timotheé Chalamet wow at NYFF
• How high can A24 take MARTY SUPREME at the Oscars?
• Josh Safdie looks to steal a Best Director spot from HAMNET’s Chloe Zhao and SENTIMENTAL VALUE’s Joachim Trier

Chapters

• 2:13 Kathryn Bigelow's A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE fails to impress at NYFF
• 18:19 The Oscar stars align for Guillermo del Toro's FRANKENSTEIN
• 33:33 Can AFTER THE HUNT be a complete awards season shutout?
• 44:03 Ethan Hawke vs. Jeremey Allen White - Oscar voters to choose between BLUE MOON and DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE
• 55:10 Oscar favorite Day-Lewis back from exile with ANEMONE
• 1:06:49 THE SMASHING MACHINE and Dwayne Johnson - bruised but not knocked out
• 1:19:16 KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN, Jennifer Lopez and Tonatiuh hoping for one last dance
• 1:46:30 Searchlight pulls the plug on Bradley Cooper's IS THIS THING ON before world premiere
• 1:52:12 A24 chooses their favorite Safide, MARTY SUPREME steals the show at the New York Film Festival

Transcript

SPEAKER_01: 0:13

Welcome everyone to another episode of the Academy Anonymous Podcast, where we're talking all about the Oscars, Oscar Race 2026. I'm your co-host, Joseph. And I'm your other co-host, Jules. Um, thank you for joining us. Um, and as always, um, make sure to follow us online. We're on Twitter at Academy Anon. That's A-N-O-N. And visit us on our website. That's framesandflicker.com. Um, you can catch up with a bunch of interesting coverage there. And of course, Oscar Predictions. We have brand new Oscar predictions reflecting everything that's happened um, sort of at the end of September and the opening of October. And so a lot of interesting changes um have been made. And so those are updated for you to take a look at. Um, and uh we also have that information available on the cover art. That's our Twitter handle at Academy Anon and on our website, framesomeflicker.com. You can also find links to both in the show notes for this episode.

SPEAKER_00: 1:11

Right. And we're constantly updating our Oscar predictions, especially in these sort of tumultuous months of October, November, December. So if you go on the website, you'll see frequent updates. We're trying to always, you know, take stock of how the weather is changing in this race. And as we all know, the weather changes pretty fast week to week. So look out for that. I thought that on this episode we could focus on several films that have already come out for the general public consumption um and discuss what our our takeaways were from the films that we just uh saw along with everyone else. Also discuss some of the films that have underperformed as of late and have sort of changed the Oscar race to some degree, right? And then um talk about the New York Film Festival, which just wrapped up and with a very important screening that we're gonna spend some time evaluating, taking apart, and then a couple last tidbits at the at the very end of the show. Yeah, I think that sounds great. So, what do you want to start? So, why don't we start with you and I got a chance to see a House of Dynamite finally last week? Um, it's going to be on streaming this week. I'm not sure exactly what day. Is it Friday or Thursday? Um, it came out to theaters and select theaters, you know, the last couple of weeks, I believe. Right. We got a chance to see it last week. So, what did you think?

SPEAKER_01: 2:33

Um, I think it's a great place to start because I think if you catch up with our Oscar predictions, one of the most significant changes we've made is sort of where a house of dynamite falls for a bunch of races. I think we had it pegged pretty high in uh in the places that were included. Um, for example, a film editing, original screenplay, best picture, maybe not in you know the top five for best picture, but we felt very confident it was uh spot number six. Um uh so we felt very confident at one point we were discussing can you have Chloe Zhao in there and Catherine Biglow in for director? If not, maybe Catherine Bigelow makes more sense because she hadn't um been nominated so recently.

SPEAKER_00: 3:13

Right. And post-Venice, I think we were really high on this idea that even you know, before if you look at our if you remember our previous episodes, we were already discussing how it seemed like a house of dynamite was being primed to be the Netflix's Netflix's big push with that uh Venice premiere and the New York Film Festival um uh domestic premiere, and everything just seemed like it was a timely enough subject that was going to play really well to the masses on Netflix, that was going to be critically acclaimed. It came out in Venice, it was really critically acclaimed by many top critics. Um, and then things have started to change a little bit.

SPEAKER_01: 3:51

I think, you know, at the very least, if you're paying attention to the race, we have some um significant um bellwethers, I think, going off that not everything is you know uh peachy in paradise. Um so House of Dynamite had its sort of um North American premiere, right? Because it goes from Venice, right, skips Telluride, skips Toronto, and gets selected for New York, which you would think is a harbinger of good news because New York Film Festival, you know, has um, you know, elite taste. And so if they're showing the Catherine Bigelow film, um, there's got to be something they they enjoyed about it. Um, the issue is that you know, rumors started um circulating amongst film Twitter about what was initially a poor reception at, I believe, a press screening for the film. And, you know, people some people have really harped on the idea that it was not greeted well there and it was met with cynicism and laughs by the end of it. Um, and after screening in New York, I think actually had it's uh, you know, it's screening for for audiences. Um, but I think from that press screening, besides film Twitter, you had already now some critics who were taking pointed issue with its structure. Um and I think all of a sudden it had a couple of you know pretty poor reviews show up at you know the review aggregator sites. Um nothing super cataclysmic in terms of you know, like an abundance of people have you know trashed it now, but it did get some, you know, some poor ink from some notable critics, and then it's just not taking off online on social media. I think that the the reception has been cold, um, and there's been a lot of disappointment. Um, and so that's one aspect.

SPEAKER_00: 5:41

The other aspect is which it feels like it feels like a a big 180 to what we felt post-Venice with these five-star reviews, four-star reviews. You know, it was an 88, 89 at one point on Metacritic. It's down now to I think I believe a 79 or an 80, which is still very respectable, by the way. But you it definitely is a big shift from what initially it seemed at Venice.

SPEAKER_01: 6:04

It's not a film that I think is gonna be this overwhelming, you know, everyone loved it sort of movie. Nothing like, for example, one battle after another, which doesn't really have any really pointed negative reviews. San Francisco Chronicle, obviously not a fan, but certainly the film, you know, Time magazine loved it, right? Uh Los Angeles Times really liked it, New York Times. So almost the print critics aren't a huge issue, even if it's not they're not over the moon and it's not one battle after another. I think the big issue is online. What are people gonna think about it online? And certainly in the coming days, you know, this is before it screens to general audiences, and I don't know how they're gonna react yet. And we don't even know how the you know the political sphere is going to react to the film. Um, so all those could be even more problematic things. Um, I think the other thing that I was alluding to that happened is that we screened it, right? Right. And after screening it, um I I think we both understood the criticism. Right. Um, you know, I think I I personally enjoyed the film, and I think that there's a lot of successes in it, um, even though I understand people's issues with it and and and and I understand the critiques on the structure of the script, right? That was my personal feeling. I don't know if you felt the same.

SPEAKER_00: 7:23

Honestly, I was disappointed by the film. I expected more from a Catherine Bigelow film about this subject and with this writer, um, who is a writer that we we quite like. No, um, who very much deserved recognition for Jackie in 2016. And, you know, I felt like the script kind of let me down a little bit. And I do understand people's issue with the Roshiman style kind of you know, um approach. Um, I didn't have that much of an issue with that. I think I had more of an issue that as a drama, it's not very it felt to me not fleshed out, it felt undercooked, which is a weird experience when you're talking about a Catherine Bigelow film, and I know that she's very passionate about the films that she makes and the topics that she tackles. Um, she, you know, is very selective with the work she puts out, and so you know, I was expecting, you know, uh something more, and I think the film leaves you wanting a lot more than what's there. Um, and I don't know, I I felt like there was some clumsiness to it. I felt, you know, it it felt a little sloppy to me, which again I I didn't expect. Um, and there are pointed moments that are effective. Um, I certainly think that it's a it's a it's a great cast of very talented actors who don't have a lot to attach to in the drama. You know, I think the film uh takes a little bit of a familiar approach with regard to how it tackles the emotional and psychological state of uh these government officials and servants in the middle of this crisis. Um so to me on the page, it felt like us understanding these characters kind of resort was it was just resorting to, you know, I'm scared for my family, you know, I'm worried about my family. And, you know, that's that's you know understandable and makes sense to me, and but uh it didn't feel fleshed out, it felt a little bit stereotypical in a way. Um, it didn't feel like uh, you know, uh a searing drama of these human beings uh stuck in this you know crisis and this um inevitability and this chaos. You know, I just felt like the writing was tackling it through a very kind of familiar scope um that I thought you know wasn't necessarily adding a lot to the film. I thought, you know, the editing choices, some of them I thought were not um as astute as I as I would have expected. I think the music is very reminiscent to the conclave uh score. I agree with uh some people who've said that. And I think thematically, like the film doesn't have a lot to say after its first chapter. It's almost as if what it has to say with every uh subsequent chapter, it's doesn't have something new to add to the story that it's telling, the drama that it's fleshing out, you know, and so in a way I think it ends up being a much more flat exercise than I think was anticipated.

SPEAKER_01: 10:45

Um, I think all those are valid points, and I think a lot of um people who have seen the film share them. I think analyzing the film though as a potential Oscar contender, um, I think certainly the film suffers from just the very idea that that opening chapter is just so uh extremely well done and I thought super effective that it's a it's sort of it peaks too early. But looking at it from the lens of what are voters gonna think about it, I think that the piece, you know, uh flaws and all will never escape the urgency and timeliness of its subject. And so that is always going to be, you know, at the center of the narrative of their campaign. Um and and I think it's a huge boost um because I do think that this is gonna possibly be a year where voters are trying to, you know, address some really pressing um uh global issues, political issues, um, social issues, cultural issues throughout their choices for best picture. And so I think that firmly keeps it in the conversation. Um, but some things were automatically clear to me right away, just sort of analyzing the film through that lens, which is the cinematography is not going to contend. Um it's just it's not um attention-calling enough. Um, I think you're right that the score, I found it to be extremely effective, but it may evoke the tones of Conclave a little too close, especially to go back to back. Um, I'm not, you know, eliminating it from that category, but I'm gonna say that it's going to be a challenging nomination to get. I still feel that the film editing, you know, has a a great chance of being singled out and nominated. Um you know, I it's a previous nominee, Kirk Baxter, and the sound work as well is is really well done. Um, great effects work, and it tells a story, and a lot of its storytelling is being told through the sound. Um, so those are elements that I'm I'm more confident in that it's certainly still in the race to get that nomination. I'm not sure I would call any of them a guarantee.

SPEAKER_00: 12:57

Um I don't know if you would agree with that, you know, that either of those two categories are a guarantee for No, I don't I I personally feel that there's no guarantee with this movie. Um I think it's a film that can easily fall through the cracks and not summon enough passion to land a best picture nomination or to land a best screenplay nomination. I think most voters, my gut is that they're not going to think it's one of Catherine Bigelow's strongest efforts. Certainly, you're right, the timiness of the piece um uh is an asset uh that can't be ignored and it certainly keeps it in the conversation, but I don't see a unanimous sort of attachment to this project from voters in all regards. And so I don't think that any category is extremely likely. Um, and I think it's very, very likely, very possible rather, that the film could miss completely.

SPEAKER_01: 13:59

Right. I mean, jumping off that point, I do think that Catherine Bigelow is not going to be a strong contender for director. Um, and I even think that some of the sharpest criticisms that are being levied on the piece are possibly gonna hurt its bid for original screenplay. Um, because a lot of that is on the page. Um so all of a sudden you go from a film where after Venice it seemed it could be now here for six or seven. Um, but now we're kind of going back and saying, here's a film that, you know, if it's if the urgency of the piece and of the topic, the subject matter is enough to get it over the hurdle, it seems to me like it's gonna be a little bit more in the four range, if you want to be very kind, kind of like don't look up, which I think is a great parallel for this movie, or possibly in the two range, kind of like the post, which I think is another great parallel for this movie. So if the subject matter is something that voters want, you know, audiences to pay attention to, it could be best picture and screenplay. Um if it's something um again that that that that's they they don't want to leave it off the list because of the subject matter, it could be like don't look up and be picture screenplay, um, and two below the line categories, possibly film editing and sound, or maybe sound and score, something like that. Um, so that's kind of where I'm seeing it right now.

SPEAKER_00: 15:23

I feel like after seeing the film, I I would be very surprised if this is Netflix's big film. I don't think it will be. Um, and I think, you know, Netflix, I think, is having a great year, and they still stand to have at least one and what I think very probably two films land in the best picture top ten. But I I'm I I'm not sure that this is one of them. I mean and even if it does, as you were saying, I think it's a film that ends up getting that get ends up being included in the ninth or tenth spot and not nowhere near the top five or six or seven. Which is not great.

SPEAKER_01: 15:59

And I think that's really Netflix's issue this year is that they don't really have we already know who the what the top five films are, more or less, possibly in the top six or seven, and no Netflix title is on there. And so Netflix really has to sort of get their act together because they're gonna end up scrambling like they did in 2022 for all quiet the Western Front. Um, but I I do think that what's interesting here is that again, that parallel of don't look up, right? Where critics absolutely hated it, and it was you know very polarizing online, but the mere presence of DiCaprio and Streep and uh Blanchett um in a film from Adam McKay about that subject matter is enough to help it get in in one of those final two spots. And and again, the critics for this film are solid, yeah, are are very, very solid. Yeah, if it were to be nominated, it would certainly be one of the you know higher films, one of the more well-regarded films from print media, right? If not necessarily film Twitter.

SPEAKER_00: 17:05

Right. I 100% agree. Um, but like I said, you know, I I I'm very curious to see how the film is gonna play out on streaming for the world at large and the domestic audience. I'm very curious to see how political channels kind of interpret the piece. And right now I'm sensing, and again, I it's just a it's just a sense, but right now I feel like things feel a little bit quiet. You know, I would expect that this film would have more of a thunderous sort of reception in the streaming world. Something that helped, Don't Look Up, is that it did have that. You know, that the critics were very subpar, but it was a huge hit on Netflix, and people were watching it and and people were you know enjoying it or they had they had opinions about it, right? You know, right now this film feels like it's it's too quiet. And if the only pocket that's seemingly super passionate about it is, as you were saying, this print media, but it's lacking, you know, uh, you know, online and it's gonna lack in you know viewership on streaming, then again, I don't really see how this can be propelled into a multi-nominated film. I mean, that's how I'm seeing it right now, at least. But that brings me into a very interesting topic that you and I have been talking about for a while, and it's and and and this sort of click started to crystallize for us after we saw um uh house of dynamite, but even before, as we were updating our predictions. A film that I think not enough people are putting enough stock into, and that I think at this very moment you and I really feel strongly is the Netflix push, and it's going to be the Netflix movie that gets into Best Picture, at least the prime horse that gets into Best Picture, is actually Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein, which has had a very interesting trajectory in the film festival sort of sphere because it premiered in Venice. It got a I think a 10-minute or 15-minute or however long the standing edition was. Um, and then it premiered at Tallyriot, and people were lukewarm, and then it premiered at Toronto and people were lukewarm. I'm sorry, at Tally Ride and people were lukewarm, but at Toronto it bounced back incredibly huge, huge, and even landed the number two spot in uh the People's Choice, which was a very big surprise. And you know, people were enjoying it. The film comes out in very select uh cities. I mean, you and I won't won't get a chance to see it until next week. Um, but it comes out in in very select spots, it's a 78 on Metacritic, and that's a pretty darn good score. It's close to House of Dynamite, they're pretty much even. Um, and so you and I were tracking the predictions, and we were seeing that Guillermo Lotoro's film stood to uh get nominations in these places in these categories and these below the line categories that if it were true that he stands that that film stands to land those nominations, it's really a sign that this film is going to end up being a multi-nominated film and a film, a non- best picture nominee because Guillermo de Toro's films don't get into those categories unless they are best picture nominees.

SPEAKER_01: 20:20

Yeah, I think that we have a sort of a patented theory before somebody, you know, steals it. Um just the idea that the Netflix best picture movie traditionally should be a cinematography movie. Yeah. Um there's immense overlap there ever since they've been able to break into that category. They've never missed. Um, they've never missed, they've doubled up plenty of times, they've gotten surprise nominations um for films that were otherwise did not perform well. If you think of something like Bardo, um but Netflix's best picture, whatever film they get in, should be in the cinematography circle that's held up thus far ever since they got in, or ever since um yeah, ever since they got on for 2018. I mean, mudbound still made into cinematography, right? Got into cinematography, but there's an argument to be made that had there been 10 spots, it would have been mudbound, possibly. Right, right. Um, but other than that, other than that first year where they got into anything, you know, they've been able to crack best picture through cinematographers. And I think you and I thought that a house of dynamite and Barry Aykroyd, his positioning in the industry, the fact that he got stumped for Captain Phillips made a house of dynamite an excellent choice. And again, you can it he could still be nominated and it could still happen, but on screen, it seems like something that's going to call out to cinematographers less. Yeah, much less. But Frankenstein seems like it could be an excellent choice for that spot. Yeah. Um, and if Netflix is focuses their efforts on that, on you know, uh, you know, getting into Best Picture through the cinematography nomination, Frankenstein makes the most sense. The other thing I'll say is that you and I, again, another patented theory we have is just the idea that um the the TIFF People's Choice Award winner is really important. The movies that make it and the movies that place. If it wasn't for Neon Railroading, Life of Chuck last year, who knows what would have happened. But it's a meaningful thing to win it, it's a many a meaningful thing to place. The fact that Frankenstein got placed as the runner-up I think puts it in an extremely strong position to steal a nomination for its screenplay. The TIFF winners have an excellent trajectory for the screenplay categories at the Oscars. You're talking about winners, whether it's women talking, you know, how it ended up when you say winners, you mean they placed at least. Yes, I'm saying if they if they placed among the top three, the win, the first runner-up, the second runner-up, they usually get screenplay nominations at the Oscars. Now, here's a caveat. If they're Canadian productions or productions that didn't come out, that doesn't usually happen. So Life of Chuck has didn't that didn't happen last year, Life of Chuck, although maybe it still happens this year, but it doesn't happen, for example, for a Canadian title like Beans, which did really well and placed. Um, but if you look at a film, for example, like One Night in Miami, they still get a screenplay nomination. Women Talking only gets two nominations that year, gets a screenplay nomination, gets the screenplay win. So more often than not, you know, American fiction uh wins the People's Choice Award, gets the best picture nomination, but it also gets um the adapted screenplay win. More often than not, the screenplay winner is among that TIF three. Right. And we know Hamnet won, and that's an adapted screenplay. But the three of them, as long as they're not necessarily strictly a Canadian production, they're all adapted screenplays, by the way. They're all adapted screenplays, and all of them should have a good shot at being nominated for adapted screenplay. We everyone figures for Hamnet, everyone believes Hamlet's gonna do it, everyone is very confident that Wake Up Deadman's gonna do it because Knives Out has had a good trajectory there, but no one is paying attention to Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_04: 24:19

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 24:19

And so if Frankenstein is a cinematography nominee for Netflix and if it's a screenplay nominee for Guillermo, it's really difficult to believe that it's not going to be a best picture nominee. Right. And so we had thought, for example, maybe it's gonna ride the same trajectory as Nymar Alley and just get production design, costume design, cinematography, and they'll miss best picture because you don't have the Fox Searchlight factor, which is usually um at play here, and searchlight usually makes it into the top 10 for best picture, and that's certainly what happened to Nymar Alley. Um, it had you know front runner status so long, came out completely obliterated by the box office. But the searchlight sort of card helps it get in, especially in a year where you're forcing 10.

SPEAKER_00: 25:01

Well, yeah, but it was also the post-pandemic. So post-pandemic, yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 25:04

So people were extremely forgiving. Um, but between Guillermo, you know, having his comeback effort after finally winning, which usually does well, if you look at 127 hours, zero dark thirty, coming off a win, they're extremely welcoming for you to get back into Best Picture. So between that, between uh the remake, between Fox Searchlight, all that is enough to uh a force top 10, all that is enough to help Nightmare Alley make it in. We did thought that because it's Netflix, maybe Frankenstein's not gonna have the best shot because you have Jay Kelly and it's about the industry, and then you have House of Dynamite and it's about you know very timely uh nuclear armament um or disarmament. Um, and so we thought there's just no way it's gonna stand out. But now that we're kind of thinking about it, it's kind of in the perfect position to do that. Right. The other thing that we sort of mentioned as we update our predictions, and we've included Frankenstein in Best Picture now, is the idea that um there's also this kind of trend where the academy has been really open to recognizing these adaptations of like iconic, um, iconic uh literary works. Yeah, you know, I and we mentioned Little Women, we mentioned uh All Quire on the Western Front, right? Which was a big reason why it was able to become Netflix's main push in 2022. And Frankenstein still fits that bill. Yeah, um, even if it's a lavish and very idiosyncratic interpretation, possibly, it still fits the bill of having the prestige of being adapted from the iconic work, the iconic work from Mary Shelley. Yeah, right. Um, and the other thing we talked about is that you know, if the film does well in production design, costume design, cinematography, score they say is lovely, that's already four. There's going to be uh makeup, everyone says everyone talks about the makeup, that's five. The sound work and then and the work they're doing for um the uh the creature that could end up being a factor. That's sick, that's six. A Guyama Toro plays for Tiff, so that's seven. If you include writing, you include picture, that's eight. But there's another element here, which is that everyone loves the performance from Jacob Bellordi. Right. And so if you get actors involved, right, because Jacob Bellordi's performance is at least good enough to be listed at the Golden Globes, who are gonna be happy to list him, at the SAG, who are gonna be happy to list him, then actors are gonna watch this movie. I think personally that it helped that Kate Blanchett probably got pretty close for Nightmare Alley, that that helped you know, actors put on the screener and watch the screener prioritize it, and that helped Nightmare Alley get a best picture nomination at the end, right?

SPEAKER_00: 27:42

But I exactly. And I think that as we were going through the uh categories, you know, these are categories that if Guillermo del Toro gets in, he's usually gotten in to these categories with his best picture movies. Um, so you know, uh costume design, for example, you know, when he gets into costume design, that usually ends up being a best picture film. And uh a very interesting stat that we saw was that Alexander Desplah, when Alexander Desplah gets renominated, yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 28:11

When whenever Alexander Desplah has managed to be nominated for a live-action film, a non-animated film, that film has been nominated for best picture. Yes, and so everyone talks about the score in this film, and it feels inevitable that uh Despla is going to be nominated for this. Right. And again, the only times he's missed, as far as I can recall, is Fantastic Mr. Fox. Right, an animated film. And I Love Dogs, I believe. Two Wes Anderson film. Two Wes Anderson animated films. Yeah, right. He ended up winning for the Wes Anderson live action film that finally made it into Best Picture, right? Grab Budapest Hotel.

SPEAKER_00: 28:45

Yeah. So I mean, when you take stock and you look at, you know, again, Guillermo's film, when they get into costume design, they usually get an eye for best picture. When they get into production design, they usually get an eye for best picture. Uh the the stat we just said about uh Alexander Desploit. We look at cinematography, we look at screenplay, we look at the tip number two uh choice, it just seems like everything is aligning in such a way that Frankenstein stands to be Netflix's big movie.

SPEAKER_01: 29:12

If they were if they were smart, they would already throw all their weight behind that because that's probably going to be the film that ranks highest because it's gonna have all that broad support. Again, I think that even if somehow Jacob Ballordi doesn't make it in, and I think he's in a fantastic position to make it in.

SPEAKER_00: 29:28

I will say that, and we were we've been talking about this. I'm not a hundred percent sure yet that they'll welcome Jacob Ballorty into the club. I think the academy has always been a little bit cautious about young men making it into categories. I think they're a little bit skittish. I think they're a little bit, I think let's just put it this way the barrier of entry for a young woman to get nominated is I think a little easier than it is for a young man, especially a young, let's let's call it, you know, for lack of a better phrase, hot commodity, right like Jacob Alordi. Right. Who's really impressing with his filmography, but you know, he's he he's very in the moment, he's very of the moment. People are obsessed with him, you know, his talent, his, you know, physically. So, you know, I think that kind of puts these voters a little cautious in the cautious mode about whether they want to put him into that club or not. So I'm not 100% solved that'll happen just yet, but I do 100% believe that he will be nominated for the Golden Globe and he will be nominated for the SAG. And that's just a hop and a skip and away, a hop and a skip away to getting nominated at the Academy Awards.

SPEAKER_01: 30:32

I I think all that is is accurate. That's the way I'm seeing it also. I think he's gonna come incredibly close if he doesn't get in. I think one thing that always rubbed me the wrong way was the idea that can you really have a supporting actor category that has both Paul Meskell and Jacob Bellordi? That seems a little weird to me. It does seem a little bit weird. Um, but I do think that people are gonna look at Jacob at this point and say, okay, well, he was already in Saltburn and he was already in Priscilla, and he was in the Justin Kerzel um miniseries. Right. Um, and so I think he's acquired enough respect to get a nomination there, not unlike, for example, Barry Keegan when he got nominated for Banshees of Anna Sharon. And so it makes a lot of sense to finally put him in. Um, and I think it helps that it's a supporting nomination and not a lead nomination, yeah, right? Where you're maybe gonna be a little less strict.

SPEAKER_00: 31:23

Yeah, there's a semblance here. I don't know if I'm I can make this comparison, but there's a semblance here of like Brad Pitt and 12 Monkeys. Oh, you know, kind of like Brad Pitt finally Brad Pitt is able to get in, and some people forget about this, but he gets into supporting actor for 12 monkeys, and of course, he was very much already a very, you know, hot commodity as well. Right. It helped that he was going into supporting, it helped that it was a performance that made a lot of voters see him in a different light, see sort of a depth, a depth to him that they uh weren't familiar with. Right. And I think Jacob Alordi is gonna be able to do this in this film. I just think that if you look at our predictions, he's gonna end up battling, I think, mostly Adam Sandler for J. Kelly, the other Netflix guy. Exactly. And um uh possibly Benicio del Toro for uh one battle after another, which I think you and I feel more confident about.

SPEAKER_04: 32:15

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 32:15

So I mean it's just it really comes down to will he be able to edge out Adam Sandler or Benicio del Toro for that fifth spot.

SPEAKER_01: 32:22

Well, I think we're feeling very confident about where Frankenstein is headed in terms of its text, and we're seeing it paint a very bright picture for its prospects and best picture. I think we're still waiting on supporting actor, although we think that he's at least gonna get close, very close, and he's gonna get his first SAGNOM, first Globe Nom, all that on the film side. Um I'm gonna I'm gonna leave the final point on Frankenstein and Best Picture and Best Supporting Actor on this. I think it may help Jacob that he's Australian. I think that may be a factor here that helps him get that nomination at the end. That's something to think about because you know, the Australian faction faction or sector of the Academy, it exists. Yes, and they're responsible for Jackie Week for getting in for Animal Kingdom.

SPEAKER_00: 33:19

So watch out, keep an eye for that. Yes. So, you know, bottom line, watch out for Frankenstein, and our our bet right now is that that will be Netflix's big movie. That's what it's looking like, at least. Now, another film that we finally got a chance to see, actually, I have not seen. I'm looking forward to it, but you have seen it, and that is Luca Guadagnino's After the Hunt, which is uh just came out on Friday to uh an expanded uh theater run after a limited run. So, and and you had read the script previously, so that's very interesting. Let's let's talk about it.

SPEAKER_01: 33:53

I mean, it was fascinating because I think there is so much different from this original script that I read, the draft that I read. A lot of significant changes happened, and yet, in my personal opinion, none of them helped the movie. Um yeah, I actually I I don't see the reason for the changes. It's almost like you put all that effort in to make things a little bit different, sometimes even significantly different, but you really went nowhere. So it was it was very disappointing. Um, I think you know, it's certainly one of the more disappointing films from Luca's you know filmography.

SPEAKER_00: 34:34

I think that's a general consensus. I mean, if you look at the Metacritic score and the Ron Tomato score, undoubtedly this is Luca's uh least uh uh well-received film. It's a 51 on Metacritic, I think it's a 40 on Ron and Tomatoes. So, you know, this film is has not done well with critics. And I will, you know, I don't mean tattoo our own horn, but I will say that you and I from the very beginning, before its Venice premiere, were already predicting that this film was going to do a lot more poorly than people were anticipating. The time that we were saying that after the hunt looked poised to disappoint, pundits were having it in their top five for best picture and best director and best actress and best supporting actress and best support, just everywhere, all over the place. But you and I were already sensing a lot of red flags here.

SPEAKER_01: 35:21

And I will say that it's just coming out, so I'm sure listeners are gonna try to check it out and form their own opinion. You haven't seen it yet. Yeah. Um, but I think that's a good thing. I'm really excited though. I can't wait. I I want you to see it because you're a bigger Luca fan than I am. I I enjoy his films, I love Luca. But you love all his films, and you especially love his most his two most recent films. Oh, yes. I'm gonna make the argument that this film is reactionary to those films, their successes, and their lack of successes, and that despite everything, I think there's a very personal artistic statement being made here. Uh but I think it's a more fascinating movie to analyze between the lines as opposed to what's on screen. I think what's on screen mostly doesn't work and is you know uh very difficult to fathom how so many talented people can get together and just come up with that. Um, at the same time, if you start analyzing the film between the lines, I think it's immensely fascinating to think about you know what the filmmaker is really thinking and what's you know really on his mind. Motivation and motivation, for example. What what are his motivations here? And so I think you know, watch that and and and I'm curious to hear what you what you think. Um, but certainly I think there was this idea that Julio Roberts could survive, you know, the poor critics, and I think it's not doing too bad in the box office, not doing any not doing great, but it's a you know limited run. Um we know it's kind of you know it's life is really on prime video. My big question is how well audiences are gonna react to it. And so far, I don't think it's great. Um, I think it's a little bit lukewarm also. Um, but I seeing the film and seeing how the film is sort of constructed, it's difficult for me to imagine Julia Roberts getting much traction anywhere for the film. I think there's an opportunity maybe for her to get a globe nom, maybe. Um, but I was someone who thought, well, you know, she's respected enough and it might be risky enough that they give her a globe and a sag and maybe she gets close. Um, we sort of talk about this idea that the best actress lineup, the main contenders throw that category possibly as way too young on average. Yeah, you know, you should have a more veteran presence there. You should have someone of a net banning stature. Yeah, right. And the the the heavy contenders this year between the people who are locked in, and then you have, you know, Chase Infinity, and you have Rose Byrne, and you have Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone, it skews very young, yeah, which yeah, rarely does it ever go that young. It's possible, but it's not common. It's not common. Um, and so you have to start looking at these um more veteran actresses who have had more years in the industry, more successes, or just more work. And so And there's a very small pool of them. And there's a very small pool. I mean, obviously, we talked about Lucy Lou, right, in Rose Mead, which is a real character, and that helps. I have seen that. June Squibb is a former nominee. Yes, right. You've seen that one also, Eleanor the Great. Yes. Um, and she would, I think, be the oldest nominee if she were to get in. That's directed by Scarlet Johansson. I think that has a great shot at getting in for a sack because sag voters love to nominate films directed by one of their own. So look out for that. Um, but then you have Julia Roberts, right? Which on paper, she's coming back, she has this really meaty role, she's gonna be on the big screen, Luca's directing it, but it just falls flat in so many ways. And just the way that the film is approached, you know, the way it's lensed, it doesn't really give her much to work with. And so, because of that, to me, I think there's a real possibility that the film doesn't get any nominations whatsoever. That, you know, Lucy Louf a rose meet can squeeze her out of the Golden Globe if it's campaigned right. Um, so that's something that I that I think I'd be aware of. You know, I think I'd be very surprised if Julia got Julia Roberts got more than one. And I actually think it's more possible that Julia Roberts doesn't get any.

SPEAKER_00: 39:25

Right. And I think as you were saying, it it's it's very strange because again, there should be a more veteran presence here in terms of age. The pool is very small. Again, I will say I think Eleanor the Great is a very flawed film. I think that's evident enough and it's a low critic score. And I think that Rosemead has a lot of issues as well. That I don't see that film making an impact on the awards race either. Of course, it's yet to come out, so we'll see what happens. It is also vertical, which is a smaller studio. Um, and there's just not a lot of good options, but it's weird to have a cat an actress category again, so young. If you take stock, and of course, I'm an I'm an obsessive, so I have, you know, uh Rose Byrne right now is the oldest person in this, you know, content in contention for this actress race at 46. You know, so so I mean everyone else is in their 30s, right? You know, Amanda Safre, Cynthia Revo, that's Emma Stone, Chase Infinity's in her in her 20s, Renata, uh uh, you know, Jesse Buckley is 35, I believe. It's just it's just way too young. But I I don't think they have anywhere else to go.

SPEAKER_01: 40:34

I I I do I do wonder about that. And I think the person possibly in best position to make a run for it is June Squid, not Julia. Right. I mean, between those two options. And even Lucy Liu, I mean, just the vertical entertainment part could be a complication. Um, but I think that it helps that she's a real person. That's certainly going to help her a lot.

SPEAKER_00: 40:54

Um and speaking just very briefly about the best actress race, you know, um, Joseph had wrote an had written an article that, you know, our predictions now reflect, you know, the recent announcement that the Testament and Van Lee was finally picked up by Searchlight. We had thought that it was gonna be Netflix, right? Um, Searchlight made perfect sense after Rental Family didn't do as well as was hoped after Toronto, right? Didn't get that top prize, and they were probably hoping that top prize they could write it into a best picture nomination. They're gonna try their best with the Testament Van Lee, which is raptuously received by critics, but I think it's gonna have a really tough time selling to general audiences and breaking out, even with a very respectable budget of$10 million. Um, but Amende Seyfried finally solves a big issue in this category, which is that we finally have an actor playing a real life figure.

SPEAKER_03: 41:42

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 41:43

And so even if Ann Lee ends up getting zero nominations everywhere else, this is one category where it's it's destined to get nominated by just the mere fact that it'll be an actor playing a real life figure, and these acting categories tend to at least have one representation of that in the category. So that's something interesting.

SPEAKER_01: 42:02

I think that's you know, that's also considering that we're saying that maybe Jesse Buckley's performance or you know, interpretation is a little too loose, right?

SPEAKER_00: 42:10

Yeah, no, because yeah, we can't, you know, we're we're not gonna, she's not really Anne Hathaway. Right. You know, she's uh she has a different name, right? And it's also, you know, a fictional historical account, you know, so she doesn't qualify exactly, but Amanda Safree does.

SPEAKER_01: 42:24

I mean, yes, I don't know how much Ann Lee was out there, you know, singing and chanting. At that, I don't know. Right. Um, but again, it it just gives you that idea that if you were a little bit iffy on the Jesse Buckley being the real person, certainly Amanda Seifried, I think, makes makes it more likely that you you're the voters are gonna feel like I included somebody real, which is what they tend to like to do.

SPEAKER_03: 42:47

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 42:47

Um and so I think that's where after the hunt is right now.

SPEAKER_03: 42:50

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 42:50

Um and I think I don't think it helps that Amazon, MGM, Amazon totally just they don't really know what to do with any film.

SPEAKER_00: 42:59

Yeah, but but technically they might have done better in putting their their hopes on something like HETA, which I think had a better reception, yeah, possibly and that that maybe they could have turned that around into a a more you know hard-hitting uh awards contender. Yeah, I just don't think that they really care, to be perfectly honest. I don't think that's their you know modus operandi. I well, we talked about it after you saw it. We do feel like, in a way, there's a possibility that this was that maybe possibly Luca was coerced into making this film. That's kind of feels like it's not everyone.

SPEAKER_01: 43:32

If if you get a chance to see it in theaters, and let's be honest, most people will watch it on streaming. When you watch it on streaming, you can make your own interpretation. I have certainly my feelings as to where I felt what I felt the filmmaker was actually saying.

SPEAKER_00: 43:46

So that's it. I I I'm really looking forward to it. You know, and you had very, very uh honest thoughts about the score, for example, and some of the performances. So, you know, I I I can't wait to check it out, and I I hope you guys will check it out as well. Next, the film that I saw quite recently was Richard Linkladder's Blue Moon, which is coming out on Friday. Um, Blue Moon has you know stayed in the stratosphere of the you know awards world and the awards circuit um since its premiere in Berlin, which I think is quite impressive.

SPEAKER_03: 44:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00: 44:18

Um, especially when you take into account that the film is uh you know very much a chamber piece, one setting, you know, very you know, not flashy, you know, as we you know is expected with a lot of rich Richard Len Gladder's work. Um uh there's a lot of dialogue. Um, and again, it's just it's it's you know, very much in a certain kind of pace for the entire runtime. Um, and this is one of two films that Richard Len Gladder has this year, the other being the film that we saw at Cannes, um Nouveau Vogue, another Netflix film. And so uh Blue Moon, I think, has been unanimously praised by critics. You know, uh Ethan Hawk is playing Lawrence Hart um post his sort of creative breakup with uh Richard Rogers when Richard Rogers and Hammerstein were starting their creative impact and starting Oklahoma. Ethan Hawke has been, you know, again, you also unanimously praised for his performance, and undoubtedly it's a very impressive performance. Um, you know, everything from you know the way that the character walks, his mannerisms, everything is very attuned and precise, very meticulous, a lot of meticulous details. Um, he gets a lot of monologues in the film uh that give him a platform to really show showcase his performance. Um, I it's not one of my favorite Richard Linkladder films, even though I will say that there's a current of melancholy in the film that's quite uh palpable and very effective. It's actually a very sad story of a you know very uh creative uh genius, some would say, um, and and certainly uh an artist uh who was attuned to you know uh a certain uh kind of uh beauty and uh uh an artist that contributed a lot to the artistic world. Um and so the way his story um sort of unfolds is quite tragic. And I thought the film was very uh sensitive about that, but also uh not sentimental, and it was very uh resin resonant. Um, but I I will say that from an awards perspective, I can't help but think that, you know, its sort of static nature is not something it could be something that affects its awards prospects, even though, again, it's a very acclaimed performance. And Ethan Hawke very famously was snubbed for uh first reformed when he absolutely should have been nominated in 2018. In fact, I believe he should have won. And Ethan Hawke, I think, has only gained in stature within the acting community. He's one of our greatest actors, um, uh, who certainly deserves more than, I believe, two acting nominations. He also has two writing nominations. There aren't many actors that sort of uh exists in those two spaces as an actor and a writer. So I think he's very respected. And so a nomination for him this year makes a lot of sense. However, I can't help but feel like again, the the the way the film exists, that it's something that, again, some voters might be a little bit, you know, dare I say, a little bit bored by, you know, uh, something that they, you know, have a difficulty penetrating because it's so still, because it's so static, and because it's so uh, you know, dialogue driven, uh, it's because it's very wordy, you know, and and we're very much in one place. I think we're really in one restaurant, one bar, you know, and and not traveling very, you know, very in many many departments within that bar. Um uh and certainly the the moments that uh most resonated with me, actually, interestingly enough, were when I got to see um Lawrence Hart having these uh very complicated dynamics with uh Andrew Scott's character, Richard Rogers, and with Margaret Qually's character, Elizabeth Wheland. Um uh, you know, who's an up-and-coming um uh I believe costume designer um student uh who uh uh Lawrence Hart is having uh sort of uh an obsession with. And every time that the three of them were either together, or Margaret and Ethan were together, or Ethan and Rich and Andrew were together, I felt the film felt really lively and really richly textured and felt really, you know, just very much less so when we were in a monologue-driven space, you know, where we're you know, hearing and seeing Ethan Hawke's uh character and you know, again, these these lengthy speeches. You know, there's something about that that for me was a little bit harder to penetrate, even though, again, the script is very witty. Um, it's actually it's actually quite funny and um also wise, um, as a lot of Richard Linkladder's work is. Um, but I can't help but feel like there's makes the piece its sad static nature is harder to penetrate, makes the pen the piece a little harder to penetrate, or that it will be a little bit harder to penetrate for the um voter, for the academy voter, or that if we if Ethan Hawk has to battle for that fourth or fifth spot, and he has this kind of film, which again is you know very still in a way, with something that is a little bit more dynamic, you know, physic uh visually, um, tangibly, that that could hurt him in that competition. And that someone like, for example, Jeremy Allen White, who um might be in a film, again, is also playing a real life figure, another figure that's an iconic figure, um, part of the uh the arts world, um, Springsteen, that I've you know, you and I have been feeling for a long time that uh Springsteen that's that that movie stands to possibly only land a best actor nomination and be like a solo nomination because it doesn't really uh it doesn't seem poised to land in many other departments. And so if at the end of the day that last spot is going to be a competition between Ethan Hawk and Jeremy Allen White, I'm not sure that Ethan Hawk, the Ethan Hawke's movie ends up beating possibly a more, you know, on the surface dynamic film like the Springsteen film. So I would be very cautious about that. Um, and I'm not a hundred percent sold that the Ethan Hawk nomination is going to happen. Again, I do think voters will be impressed by that transformation. I think that the transformation, the physical transformation is also quite impressive. You know, um the stature he has to have, the physical stature and his look, um, his facial expressions, all of that is very, I think, uh resonant and impactful. But I just don't think he's in the right package to land that nomination, that solo nomination. I do think that the film would mostly be only a best actor nomination. That's it. Um, and so a battle between, you know, uh Jeremy Allen White and Ethan Hawk, who wins there, I'm not 100% sold that he's in the right package to win that competition.

SPEAKER_01: 51:17

I think that the I haven't seen the film yet, but I think all the points you're making are strong ones. I think something to keep in mind is two things that are possibly going to maybe help Ethan, you know, steal that last spot is a Sony Picture Classics. Yes, right, and they know how to campaign. But I think there's also an argument or an argument to be made that when these smaller you know studio distributors, distribution arms, when they finally get in to the Oscars in such a major way, the way that Sony Picture Classics was able to get I'm Still Here recognized for actress and best picture, their limited sort of uh resources are exhausted. And so it's very difficult for them to then go and contend immediately the next year. And you're seeing Sony Picture Classics run into that because they don't have a very good best picture movie. Um and you're seeing Mubi run into that, right? Right, which got the substance in, but again, its resources are absolutely exhausted. They don't have, I think, the bandwidth or the money to launch these massive campaigns for movies that are worthwhile, like um Blue Moon or Die My Love. Um, so I think that's something to keep in mind, even if it is Sony Picture Classics, you know, how much muscle do they have left? But one thing that's kind of interesting that you mentioned was not only just limited nominations for Ethan Hawk as an actor, but he's actually never been nominated for lead actor at all. Yeah, and you and I had the conversation of well, maybe the next time Ethan Hawk is nominated, maybe it feels like he's gonna win for that one because it's he certainly seems like an actor who will win at some point in his career. Um and so I don't think that you feel that Blue Moon is that Oscar-winning performance.

SPEAKER_00: 53:06

I yeah, I and that's a really good point. And we talked about that. In a way, again, I think Ethan Hawk is such a respected actor and one of our greatest actors, again, I repeat, that if you're telling me that he's gonna make it into a category at fourth or fifth and he's not gonna pull the win because right now the the you know momentum is somewhere else, which we'll discuss later, it's kind of harder for me to see the nomination because it feels like the next time we see Ethan Hawk in this category or in an acting category, it's because he's gonna, it's because he's gonna he's gonna win that category. Um, and I really very much feel like this is not the category for him to win, this is not the the performance or the film for him to win. Um, and so I'm really unsure. I'm really unsure about it.

SPEAKER_01: 53:52

I suppose maybe there's an argument here that the voters may feel like um, how many chances am I actually gonna get to nominate Ethan in the lead? Because he doesn't always go lead. And so if I'm gonna make this as a if you're a voter and you're thinking if I'm gonna make this an empty nomination for Ethan because I know that there's no way that he's gonna win, then at the very least I have just the idea that he got that lead nomination at some point in his career.

SPEAKER_04: 54:18

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 54:18

Because you're not sure if he's really gonna come back to having a lead role that appeals to them in such a strong way. So I think those are the two things to keep in mind in terms of Ethan Hawke.

SPEAKER_00: 54:28

I think that once we get a better, you know, sort of temperature check on Jeremy Allen White's film and how that's perceived by critics and finally by the box office, yeah. You know, I can see the respect for Ethan Hawke, and certainly the transformation will be impressive enough that he trumps Jeremy Allen White and gets that fifth spot. But right now, I'm just worried that Springsteen is gonna call their attention a little bit more just by the very nature of the way the film is made.

SPEAKER_03: 54:56

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 54:57

So, you know, we'll see what happens there. Um, again, Ethan Hawk is one of our greats, and and and never, never, never not a good performance from him. And certainly this is one of his most showy performances. And speaking of actors, another film we saw quite recently recently was uh Anemone with the great Daniel Day Lewis.

SPEAKER_01: 55:15

Right. We were able to see that like right off of its screening from New York Film Festival, so we had um an opinion more or less right as the first audiences were experiencing it. Interestingly enough, I think that most people that we saw with, I would argue that it was a very divisive film. I know that, for example, I enjoyed it quite a bit. I know you did not like it at all. You did not enjoy it. And again, I think there were I think that was the experience also coming out of that first screening for Press and Industry for an Emini at the New York Film Festival where it debuted. Um there were some critics that that enjoyed it immensely, and then there were a lot that said it's kind of a poor outing. Um, it is a first film, it's directed by Danny Lewis's um son. Um I think again, I I'm I'm looking forward to his his next film. I hope he continues making films. Um I think there's a lot of strong things about it. But you know, putting on again the lens of well, what's the academy gonna think? Danny DeLewis gives an extremely scene-chewing performance. And I I think it's I thought it was fantastic. Um I thought it was very lived in. Um, I thought it spoke to him as an artist, um, and his own exile possibly. Um and so this is actually one performance that I would actually not sort of dismiss very quickly, despite critics not being over the moon about it and it not making a lot of noise at the box office, and it, you know, maybe you know, premiering quickly in New York and then going right into theaters, not having a huge run of word of mouth. Um despite all that, Daniel DeLewis's uh performance I think is memorable. I think demonstrates why he's so admired among his peers. And I just think he has the material. So I would be very surprised if it doesn't get a Golden Globe nomination. I'd be shocked if it didn't get a BAFTA nomination. Um I don't know if it would get a SAG. I'm not sure he needs a SAG. But if we're talking about, you know, veteran actors and you know, we I I think we feel comfortable with Leo getting in because of the, you know, where one battle is in terms of the Oscar race. But we talk about George Clooney and sort of some of the uh virtues and and shortcomings of that piece, I can totally see Danny DeLewis taking that spot away from George Clooney because the material is possibly a little bit more uh uh uh interesting. Um maybe has a wider scope, possibly less about movies. Um I also think there's an interesting aspect going on if you watch the film, um, an interesting discussion going on between Danny DeLewis and his previous performances. Um there's an element here, um, this isn't a spoiler, there's an element here that has to do with you know, um, the Irish Republican Army, the IRA, and Danny DeLewis early in the 90s, yeah. This was a theme that was constantly revisited is revisited in his work um with the time that he spent um alongside Jim Sheridan. Um, for example, in um In the Name of the Father, they worked on the boxer together. And so it's kind of an interesting discussion that's going on here. And I have to think that there's a there's possibly a narrative where voters say, okay, well, Danny DeLewis has been there, done that, but there's also something to be said about, oh, well, Danny Lewis, it's another sort of interesting layer or interpretation to this dynamic and um to this, you know, theme that he's explored throughout his career. And now you're revisiting it, uh revisiting it again. And it's not necessarily uh a shallow reinterpretation, no, it's trying to add a new layer, a new layer to that, um, to that previous work. And so I do think that's gonna be an interesting, an interesting element. But I'm certainly someone who thinks that Daniel Day Lewis is still thickly in the hunt. And if the the fourth or fifth spot is empty, his name alone is going to make you put the screener on. And I would argue that possibly more than half are gonna be impressed with what he does, and then possibly the the big majority is gonna say, I'm glad he's not retired.

SPEAKER_00: 59:45

Even though I'm sure some people are gonna say, Then why the hell did you say you were retired? Well, I mean, I c I feel quite differently than you. I I'm not gonna say I hated it, you know, but I will say I was quite disappointed by the film. I agree with the you know I I think the overall criticism of the piece, I think the film is undercooked. I think uh there's a lot of DNA here of Roman uh Day Lewis uh you know being a beginning filmmaker and not having a piece yet that transcends or that reaches its full potential. Um it's underdeveloped. Um, I think he as an artist has a flair for the visuals. So I think that that's quite evident in the film. Um, but other than that, his script and his story, I think he co-wrote it, didn't he, with with Daniel? Yeah, the script and the story is quite underdeveloped and quite flat. And so it's true that Danny Day Lewis has, I think, maybe possibly three big monologues, you know, where he gets to speak, but they can't help but feel like a tainted actor delivering a monologue, you know, um, because there's just not enough depth in the film and the story and the script and to what he's saying for it to resonate and for it to transcend. And so it just feels at some point like you're sitting there watching and hearing this very one of our greatest actors delivering a monologue. Right. Um, it doesn't feel like a cohesive character just yet. And so just the entire piece, I think, is just way underdeveloped. Um, and I think it doesn't help that that a film like this, you know, feeling this way, I think it doesn't help that it's his son directing it. Because I think we start to get into that territory, that Nepo territory, which is, you know, is is was Roman really ready to make his first feature? And again, being in the privileged position of being able to make this first feature with the uh resources that he had to make this this film, I think people, you know, critics certainly, but voters will also be extra hard on, you know, if the is the film successful, and if it isn't successful, then be extra hard on it because it's not. Because again, this is a privileged position that a lot of other beginning filmmakers don't get. Yeah, they may, yeah. And so I think that's going against the film as well. Um, I don't think he's in the thick of the conversation, I think he's more in the periphery of the conversation. And so I think, you know, he'll always have the respect of his peers. So sure, I possibly a BAFTA nomination, possibly a globe nomination. I think there's absolutely no way he gets nominated for an Oscar for this film. Um, and the big disagreement I have with you, with something that you said, is that you said, well, you know, if we're looking for a fourth or fifth spot, there is no that in this year's best actor race because it's packed. It's packed with uh actors in better films um who have give who are giving uh incredibly celebrated performances. So when you don't go to Ethan Hawke, you can go to Joel Edgerton, you can go to Jeremy Allen White, you can go to um Jesse Plemens, you can go to uh Michael B. Jordan. It's a packed, packed, packed category that it's sort of uh a shame because it's going to be undoubtedly a category where several deserving actors will miss. Um, so when you put it in that context, I think he's very much behind all these contenders. And I think, like I said, I see him more as a very as a bona fide periphery contender, uh, nowhere near the thick of it. That's that's that's the way I'm seeing it.

SPEAKER_01: 1:03:29

I mean, I I get that point of view. I just think that despite all those actors that you mentioned and all those performances and all those films, fighting for fourth and fifth, fighting for fourth and fifth, none of them are Danny DeLewis. Right. And Danny DeLewis will have a hold a special place, I think, in in voters' minds. You know, he's made such unique history with the wins he has already. Um, I just don't think, as celebrated as they are, I think there's a reason why Danny DeLewis has three lead actor Oscars and Ethan Hawk has not been nominated for lead actor. He just does not have, I think, that same standing. I think there's a reason why George Clooney has three act lead actor nominations and doesn't have one win, and Danny DeLewis has three. And so I'm I'm saying that that could potentially be a factor. This is a guy who doesn't come out and act very often. When he does, he really disappoints.

SPEAKER_00: 1:04:27

Um and I will say this was a rare disappointment. I will say when you look at his filmography and you look at the critical reception, I will say this very much falls in line with you know the nines, you know, where it's a you know it's it's very clearly, you know, a flawed piece, and there are more flaws to it than pros. I mean, at least the general consensus. I know that you you you liked it.

SPEAKER_01: 1:04:52

I mean, I I do think there's something to be said about the idea that when Daniel gets in, and more often than not, he gets in and he wins, um they tend to be best picture movies. Yeah, and so this certainly is not a best picture movie, but I can't help but feel that focus features who already has a very big contender, who already has a very big contender, understood that we are going to move Paul Mesko out of the way of Dalewis, an actor. Because you can just keep Paul Mesko there and he can get a nomination for actor. You hope to shift him down and maybe get a second with a category shift, right? But if the movie is really a top two movie to win best picture, then it really shouldn't be much of a discussion. Paul Mesko should have that spot in actor.

SPEAKER_00: 1:05:38

Well, no, but I do feel like I think in terms of screen time, some people thought that you know the most appropriate thing was to be placed in supporting.

SPEAKER_01: 1:05:47

And that may be what some people feel, but what I'm saying is I don't know how small the screen time is. I haven't seen it yet. We haven't screened, we'll screen it soon. Um, but barring, you know, very limited screen time, you could push him into lead. I I I really wonder if he's gonna have less screen time in Hamnet, which is a shorter film, um, than Leo has in one battle after another. It's not like Leo has every scene in one battle either. And so I do think that focus feature said we can campaign Daniel despite the reception of the film. Let's get Paul out of his way. And not only is that going to benefit Paul with a category shift, in which case we can campaign Paul for the win in that category, and we can campaign Jesse for the win in that category, but we can possibly steal the fourth or fifth spot in actor. And so I I think that's that's why I'm saying that among the people I've mentioned thus far, I think Daniel is the one that I would look out for the most because I think he has the most respect and admiration from his peers. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:06:50

Um, well, again, we're we're a little bit, you know, we're we're you know, we're we we think differently there. But speaking on actor, I think the next film that makes sense to go to is Benny Safty's The Smashing Machine, which premiered a couple weeks ago um at the box office and after its Venice premiere. Right. And um, well, before we talk about its performance at the box office, uh very quickly, you know, we saw the film um right when it premiered here. Um and I will say that I quite like the film. Um, I think that the film felt very immersive to me. It felt very sensitive to me. Um, you know, had a very sensitive touch from Benny Safty. I think it's I think if you're expecting sort of an uncut gems sort of uh safety energy, you're gonna be disappointed because the film has a much softer um uh sort of gaze. Um, but I quite liked that. And I think it felt very authentic. I think it was very, you know, particular in its focus. You know, it didn't feel like a you know typical sports movie, you know, uh, you know, go from you know, one fight in the ring to another fight in the ring, leading to the ultimate fight in the ring. Um, it felt much more like a character piece, and certainly uh uh dissecting, you know, the sort of messy interior as to you know the men that are part of this MMA world and you know the the psychological and emotional investment that goes into putting your body into this uh sort of turmoil um and and the psychological effects of being uh in this uh in this sport, in this world, in this uh uh turmoil. So in that sense, I thought it was quite an effective piece. Um uh I was I was quite surprised. Um, I quite like Benny Safty and I like the Safties together. Um, but I I didn't expect such a sensitive approach. Um, and I was quite happy about that. I sort of understood why Alexander Payne's jury gave it the best director prize um and why it appealed to them. Um uh that win I thought gave me the impression that this was a film that was going to play well to academy voters. Um, and after seeing it, I still feel like it's a film that would play well to academy voters. Um, I think The Rock is quite impressive in it, to be honest. I think he has a very nuanced and layered performance in the film that uh you certainly don't, you certainly we certainly haven't seen from him, and certainly uh uh, you know, there's a depth to his portrayal and his commitment that I was uh impressed by. And I also will say I was even more impressed, and we were talking about it, with Emily Blunt, because Emily Blunt had a lot of criticism. I mean, her character in the film has a lot of criticism from critics, you know, that uh she's underdeveloped, and you know, that uh, you know, there was just a lot of things being written about her and her character. Um, but I will say that I thought Emily Blunt added a lot of layers to her performance. Um, she's the more seasoned of the two, and I think that's quite evident when you see the film. Um, she's a much smaller part than Marcur is, obviously. But every time she was on the screen, I felt that she was adding layers to this woman's story that were effective and and and quite deep. And um uh yes, I think overall the character is underwritten. Um, but I was quite impressed with her, I have to be honest. Um, I think there was it was a lot of richness to her portrayal. Um, and uh so this was a film that you and I were quite confident was going to do really well, and um that sort of changed. But before we go into that, what did you think of the film?

SPEAKER_01: 1:10:40

Well, I really enjoyed the film as well, and I echo everything that you said. Um, and I think it's tremendously performed by Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt um and um really uh precisely captured. I think Benny did a very good job for a solo outing, and I think it stands out from the other Safety films, and and and I mean that as a compliment. Um, I think the biggest issue is really its script. Does it need to exist if the documentary is out there? I think that's a valid argument. Um but I think you know, I think it's a good film to leave towards the end of our discussion along with the next film we'll talk about, because I feel like there's enough strength in the piece in and of itself that if you watch it as a screener and you ignore the noise, right, it's going to stand out. And The Rock is certainly going to get uh the nominations that the performance deserves along the way, even if he may fall short of the final five nomination. That being said, there could just be enough passion for what he does in it to make the final five. You know, um I think Christopher Nolan shouted out the performance the other day and it just goes to show you that voters may see the poor reception it got from audiences, and that may just motivate them all the more to want to single it out. Looking at it through the lens of a voter, the work is there, um, the precision is there, the surprise, the transformation is there, and I think it's in both of them. Um, I think Emily Blunt is always going to benefit from being um a real person, um, which is something that they like to include. Yeah, um, I don't see Emily Blunt getting in without Dwayne Johnson. She can't get in without him. I can see Dwayne Johnson getting in without Emily Blunt because she was there so recently, and I can see them both getting in together as a package. I can definitely see the film very unlikely that it misses makeup. Fantastic work, yeah, right. So it seems to me like that's a for sure thing that's gonna happen. The other thing that we were sort of pegging for the smashing machine at one point to even make it to best picture is that you should usually see someone who wins an award in Venice. Lately, you've you've seen one of those films score a best picture nomination. I don't think the smashing machine is going to be able to do that. Um, so certainly I don't think Benny is, you know, very firmly in the conversation for director, nor do I think it's in the firm conversation for picture. But the elements that are absolutely irresistible about it, um, Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt, the makeup, I think all those are still firmly in position to steal that nomination. It's just a matter of going from you know, second, third, or fourth to clearly fighting for fifth. But if you turn the film on, you will be impressed. Right. So it's really only a question of do you have something stronger to vote for, something you're more passionate about?

SPEAKER_04: 1:13:35

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:13:36

And again, this is uh, I think a motif that will appear in the final two films, but the idea that it has been overlooked could be as powerful as it had been a success.

SPEAKER_00: 1:13:47

Right. But I I I do want to mention that for a second, which is again, you and I felt very confident that the film was going to do extremely well um for you know the mass audience because a The Rock tends to carry, you know, um a hefty amount of uh you know mass audience to go and check out his film. Right. Um and that wrestling, or rather, you know, sports biopics that have to do with, you know, MMA fighting or wrestling, it's a it's a it's a it's a topic that I think uh taps into something that uh a certain a lot of audiences want to see. You know, we were seeing a surprise hit with um the Ironclaw from A24 as well, um, which made us think, well, if the Ironclaw can do better than expected, but now you put the rock in, and now you have these Venice headlines of him, you know, being, you know, you can't miss this performance because of the transformation, and then added to that the general audience that the rock tends to carry anyway, that this was a film set to do extremely well. And I think the predictions were extremely high for it. And the fact when it didn't do so well, I'm really surprised. I was really surprised, and I asked myself, why? Why didn't it do better? You know, you can see films and you can understand, oh well, thematically it's complex, you know, or you know, it's it's it's just not what's making money right now. But a film like this, you know, why why didn't it do the 20 million that it was supposed to do? That to me is really shocking because I I thought it had everything it needed to do 20 million.

SPEAKER_01: 1:15:24

I was surprised until I saw the movie. When I saw the movie, I understood why it did not make 20 million.

SPEAKER_00: 1:15:29

Um but wouldn't that wouldn't that wouldn't that be more in line with you know word of mouth? So okay, people start seeing the movie and people buy those tickets and then you know it falls off for you think word of mouth.

SPEAKER_01: 1:15:41

But but it never it never even launched. I don't think word of mouth, yeah. I don't think it ever took off. Right. Why I think it's largely due to the fact where if you're a Dwayne Johnson fan, you want to see a Dwayne Johnson film, not Dwayne Johnson subvert all the Dwayne Johnson about himself and give uh an authentic, moving, poignant performance. And in a lot of ways, it's it's almost as unshowy as it is showy, you know, because if if his if his transformation is very showy, the script is absolutely not showy at all. You know, it's almost we talked about documentary like, yeah, right. Um, and so that's why Dwayne Johnson didn't go. And if you're asking a crowd that wants to go and watch Daniel Day-Lewis work, they're never really gonna go and say, Oh, well, then I have to go watch Dwayne Johnson because he hasn't really sort of proved himself with that audience yet. And so after seeing the film, I understood why it didn't do well. I mean, I think we're also living in a time where hardly any film is doing well. Where, you know, as as we speak, you know, the black phone black phone two is coming out um this weekend in the US, and it's doing well, it's gonna make, you know, I think 25. That's great. But the movie was at one point pegged for 40, right? Right. And if it was another year and another time and the world wasn't in the condition that it's in, maybe more people would be going to the movies. Right. Um, but just that's just not the case.

SPEAKER_00: 1:17:06

And even one of the biggest contenders this year, one bad after another, is you know, losing money for Warner Brothers because it's you know, it's it's such a high price tag. Absolutely. Even though it's doing really well. I mean, even though it's doing well and respectable and certainly critically, it's doing phenomenally. Um, and it's you know, has some legs, it's still not where it needs to be in order to meet profit.

SPEAKER_01: 1:17:27

Yes, I just don't think that that's the reality we're living in. Um, as long as this is our political reality or economic reality, yeah, our cultural reality. So again, my big point here is that if you're an Austria voter and you look at it through the lens of what do I want to nominate, there's enough work here throughout. Um, and I really do think the pivot here for the campaign is okay, the nomination is a way to get more people to watch the movie. And if people think it's worthwhile and they applaud, you know, Dwayne Johnson not doing his regular thing, then then that's an excellent reason to put it in fifth. You know what I mean? Um same thing with Emily Blunt, even though again, I don't think Emily Blunt can get in without Dwayne Johnson. Um and so I think that's that's where I'm at with this movie. Um, I definitely am not someone I think I've always I've always had the mentality where you know you have your critic screening, your press screening, you have your first festival screening, um, then you have your major general audience screening, but no movie is ever out, you know, and I think we've seen demonstrations of that all the time. Um, whether it's you know Stanley Tucci and the Lovely Bones or Jennifer Aniston and Cake or Tom Lee Jones for In the Valley of the Law, you do this long enough you realize no movie is ever out, just the board shrinks and the campaign, their path to getting a nomination narrows. It doesn't mean that it doesn't exist, it's just more narrow. But if you can campaign the right way, you can still turn that into a successful nomination. And I think among the people we're talking about, the smashing machine is right there. The work is there, it's just a matter of reframing the narrative. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:19:16

And that brings us to another film that um sadly underperformed at the box office very recently, which was Bill Condon's Kiss of the Spider Woman, which you and I both saw at Sundance way, way back in January. Now it feels like two years ago. Um, and uh it unfortunately had a very poor performance, even though it had a very, I think a very more than decent performance with critics. I think it's 79 on Round Tomatoes, I think it's 66 on Metacritic. Um and uh this was a film that people were unsure of how was gonna land critically, and I think by and large it's landed really well, really solid critically. I think if you look at the letterbox scores for the film, there's a lot of passion behind the film. If you look at the Twitter, there's a lot of passion behind the film as well. Um, but that passion has turned into, you know, this is such a, you know, um, this is such a good movie, please go see it in theaters because it's not having the audience reception that we would have hoped. And it's quite a shame, really, because the film is quite timely. If you see the film, you know, um, with the uh communities that are being targeted, you know, the LGBTQ community, um, with its exploration of trans issues in a way that I think is very bold, um, with its sort of um it delves into, you know, uh uh, you know, being uh targeted because you disagree with the government, political prisoners, um, uh has three Latino leads, which is not something that we see often at all in a film, and especially a major, a major release theatrically. Um it's uh it's a it's a serious musical that's combining all this sort of political charge with at the same time this really lush um MGM musical 1940s, 1950s world. Um it's really well done. I think it's one of Bill Conn's best films um in a long time. Um I think it's spectacularly crafted with great performances. And so, in a way, it's quite sad that it's not finding the audience um and the roadside attractions and Lionsgate and LD haven't been able to um conjure up that audience for it in the US. Um, and that certainly I think it was a film that's that was positioned quite well in categories like supporting actress and costume design. And I think those categories are taking a hit right now because of the uh audience reception.

SPEAKER_01: 1:21:38

The box office reception. Yeah, because reception that's one thing that's apparent to me is you know, if you look at the metacritic score for the Smashing Machine, audience is not crazy about it. Yeah, you know, um, that's not the same with Kiss of the Spider Woman. The people who are going to show up, who are showing up to watch it, aren't actually enjoying it. Yeah, just the number of people who are showing up is substantially lower than they thought. Um, which again in the current climate we're living in, I think we need to start learning to underestimate what movies are going to do. You know, the same way that it doesn't make sense for Blackphone 2 to come out and make 40, you know. Or Tron Ares was supposed to make it a few years. We should probably peg down our predictions for every film by maybe 35, possibly 45%. Um, that's just the reality we're living in. Um, and again, there's a bunch of reasons for it. Um uh but again, I think it's a huge shame that it didn't find a wider audience. I hope it finds a wider audience in the future. I think if you haven't seen it, it's so worth seeing it on the big screen. I yeah, I I even went to revisit it. I saw it at Sundance, but I revisited it on the big screen here. It's a really great screen, and it's so worth the price of admission. Um, the musical sequences alone just completely pop. Um, and again, critics have been really I mean, we're living in a reality where the truth is, as much as they're eliminated from Best Picture, uh, contention, Smashing Machine, and Kiss of the Spider Woman, and those are the two of the more sad cases. The final two, that's I think why we left them for last, is because there's so much work in both films and so much successful elements in them. Right now, they're out and pacing the critical reception for Jay Kelly. Yeah, and Jay Kelly is still a contender, and sometimes that happens. You know, don't look up, you know, it's still an IFRS picture, and maybe Jay Kelly will be an IFS picture, also. But just to give you an idea of where the films have landed thus far, after you know, being widely reviewed by by critics, you know, Jay Kelly is not is an inferior movie to both of these titles. Right. Um, to be critically, at least. To be fair, we're gonna see it, we're we're gonna have a discussion on it. More critics have yeah are going to see Jay Kelly, so maybe it takes off. But the point is just that, you know, due to the box office woes of both these movies, they're probably not going to come as close to Best Picture Contention as Jay Kelly is, um, which is unfortunate because they have the work to, you know, possibly compete alongside Jen Kell Jay Kelly to just their circumstances have given them a little bit of a hit. Um, but again, like I said, I think the board shrinks. I don't think you burn the board or you say there's no route. Um, I think it's a really beautiful, interesting parallel here because we're talking about Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt, and makeup. And the work is there if you put the screener on. And I'm gonna say it mirrors exactly the same situation with Kiss of the Spider Woman. Tony 2, Jennifer Lopez, or costume design. The work is there if you put the screener on, right? Right. And there's a there's an argument that exists that it's a lack of success could be motivation enough to want to champion it. Because if anyone's gonna benefit from the Oscar bump of being nominated and and finding a little bit more of an audience, it would be both of these two movies that suffered in their initial release.

SPEAKER_03: 1:25:21

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:25:22

Um, I think that no matter what, much like the makeup nomination for Smashing Machine, I think the costume design nomination for the Kisser Spider Woman is very likely to happen.

SPEAKER_00: 1:25:33

Um when you see the film, it's it feels almost like can this not happen for costume design? Like it's it's it's crazy, but a stretch. Right. But I do wonder if you know, being hit with this uh low box office performance that's something that obvious and something that you know, you know, bulletproof can lose out just by mere fact of poor box box office performance.

SPEAKER_01: 1:26:01

It's a possibility, it's a possibility, but like the makeup work from an Oscar-winning team for the smashing machine that is just so well done if you watch the movie, and maybe it benefits that it's gonna be in a bake-off as opposed to costume design, which isn't gonna have a bake-off. You have to actually watch the movie, right? But here again, you have the legendary Colleen Atwood, she's one of the designers on it. And again, if you see the movie, the costumes are absolutely brilliant in it. Um, in in not just certainly in the musical scenes, but also in its counterpoint of the prison scenes and the ending sequence is just ridiculous. And so again, I just find it hard to believe that the precision and the creativity of that is going to be overlooked. And I also don't think we have the most competitive field, but regardless of that, I I feel like that nomination is still very much in the offing.

SPEAKER_00: 1:26:53

I wonder if that last spot for costume design is really a battle between, you know, Colleen Atwood for Kiss of the Spider Woman or Marty Supreme, uh, which is who's a costume designer who's actually never been nominated yet by the Academy. Right. Um, or if the Academy would go so far as to say, I want to nominate Colleen Atwood because she's done great work this year, but maybe I don't want to nominate her for this film that underperformed. So instead, I'll do a really strange nomination for one battle after another.

SPEAKER_01: 1:27:25

No, there's no way I think that one battle can get in there. And I think maybe something like Ann Lee can maybe try to make a move here, but even then, I'm not even sure that the costumes in Hamnet are gonna come close to what you know the costume designers achieved on Kiss of the Spider Woman. And so, again, this is another one where I feel like this nomination is very much still in the offing.

SPEAKER_00: 1:27:48

And uh another category that really made perfect sense for this film was supporting actress, not just because Jennifer Lopez has yet to be recognized for a 35-plus year in her in her career in film, um, but you know, it's a period piece, it's musicals. Bill Conan has actually done really well in this space with a musical contender and supporting actress. And actually, that category has been really, really, really kind to supporting actresses in musicals. Yeah. Um uh and you know, it's a legacy project, you know, with uh Cheetah Rivera, it's name behind it, you know, and Candor and Ebb and a prestigious Broadway musical. And so just if you look at the supporting actress category, Jennifer Lopez made perfect sense for this quintet. Um and uh we feel very strongly about it, but now we feel like Jennifer is gonna be fighting for that, you know, last spot because of the poor box opera's performance, um, which is again a a big shame, but it's also strange because if you if you really look at the landscape of best supporting actors, you know, and you look at the contenders, it really feels like it's a spot that she makes almost the most sense to get that fifth spot. Um, but now I think it's it's it's it's a little bit more confusing as to what's gonna happen there, right?

SPEAKER_01: 1:29:07

I and I agree. I and I and I think it follows the footsteps of Dwayne Johnson with the uh unfortunate element that you know roadside attractions is not a 24 and it's not a real person. Um, but I do think that it's certainly a performance, and again, if you put the screener on, the work is there and there's a it's a career where it's still very much in the hunt for the fifth spot. It's just the idea that the board has shrunk um in terms of what you need to do to get it to get you know to squeeze it out at the end, you know, to sneak off of that nomination at the end.

SPEAKER_03: 1:29:47

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:29:47

Um, but again, the category has a lot of you know downsides, you know. It's very volatile. It's very volatile. I mean, you have Glenn Close, which is perfect, but it's a nice out movie. You have Amy Madigan. Has a lot of fans, but it's weapons, you know, it's a horror movie. You have Ariana Grande, but she was just nominated. You have a bunch of one battle girls, but they're all of them are in the same movie, um, which happens to be the same studio for Wood Me. So it's an extremely volatile category, you know. And so to a certain degree, you know, Jennifer Lopez doesn't lose the aspect of, you know, she's a veteran and she's never been nominated. Roadside has nothing else to campaigning, right? Um, and so those elements don't necessarily go away, which which bode well for her. Um, because if you look at someone like Al Fanning, even Al Fanning has to technically sort of compete against Inga, right? Even she's not the only neon girl. Um, and so like Emily Blunt, the same way that Emily Blunt benefited from all these names that we're saying, because she's real, right? Right, there's no one else real. Right. Um, there's still very much a path, and it can still very much happen. And I would not dismiss it from happening. Um, it's just a matter of, again, there's just less moves you can make. It took a big hit. It took a it took a big hit, but I don't think, like the Smashing Machine, I don't think it's a a death blow. I think it's just a challenge.

unknown: 1:31:15

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:31:15

And but I wonder if some people were saying online about the film possibly getting a second wind if somehow it were to land on a streamer. I heard that could be something that that uh is uh a plus for its campaign, possibly.

SPEAKER_01: 1:31:28

I actually think that's a really smart idea, and I actually think that's a decision that would be made not just by roadside, but really by the financiers of the film. Because I think both films, Smashing Machine and Kiss of Spider-Woman, who actually it's a fantastic movie to double feature. If you haven't seen either of them, yeah, you should double feature them because they're both fantastic films, and I think this is one of Bill Condin's top three films. And certainly the idea that this film made less money than Beauty and the Beast and may get less nominations than Beauty and the Beast is hurtful as a sad, depressing fact, possibly, if that were to happen. Um, but I I guess I want to just emphasize that idea that these are films that were misjudged in their financing, misjudged in the audience, and then finally, you know, were misjudged by the release. Both movies probably should have been released platform and gone from 500 theaters to 800 to 1,000, probably capped off at 1,500, and they probably would have been much more successful. I understand that strategy would have been more realistic had they not been financed for 35 and 50 apiece. Um and you know, whatever efforts the companies made to try to, you know, get the ball rolling on them, it was never gonna be as powerful as you know getting that first initial audience to go and watch it and be impressed by it. An actual audience in a theater, not a critics or press audience um or a festival going audience, which is not the general movie going public, um, which again simply cannot afford to watch that many movies in in today's uh political climate, economic climate. Um, and so I think that they're they're both sister pieces. Um and I think that being that that is the case, I think that we have not heard the last on either film. And I think Jennifer Lopez and Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt, and Tonya 2. I mean it's so difficult to think that Tonya 2 at the end of the day isn't going to be listed so often amongst the year's uh critics as one of the best performances and one of the best um performances in the best actor category. Um so he's gonna be a critic, Starling, right? Because he's he just does an incredible job. And again, if you see the film, it's an incredible performance, and it's already an Oscar-nominated performance, Oscar winning performance from William Hurt, right?

SPEAKER_00: 1:33:59

Um, and I think it's kind of it's really hard to see him not get, for example, a Golden Globe nomination. Oh my gosh, yes. I think so and and so like I you know, I question, I'm confused, like how much does that change because of box office? Does that remain the same because again, the content the contender is strong, or does that change completely because I really doubt that it would change.

SPEAKER_01: 1:34:20

I really doubt that it would change for both of them because of the work that's there, much the same way that I would doubt that it changes much for for the actors in the smashing machine. Um, I think Tona has a really interesting element here, and we talked about it after, which is and no one really talks about it, but the best actor category is unkind to men in musicals.

SPEAKER_03: 1:34:44

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:34:44

It's unfortunately. And so on top of it being a new actor, top of it being um a Latino actor, top of it being um, you know, a film that didn't uh connect with an audience um at the box office, you have that idea that just it's very difficult to be uh competing in the best actor race as a musical. Yeah um and certainly, you know, as one of your first big roles. And it's sort of like you won't see that happen for actors if you had one of your first big roles you know, like Rachel Zegler, for example. And I'm not saying Rachel Zegler makes it in, but I'm saying that among some of the bigger awards, you know, she's she got a little bit more cred or will maybe get more cred than Tona because it's just not masculine enough to be the man leading a musical. Yeah, even though so few men can actually do it. Yeah, you know, it's it's not just that they have trouble getting into best actor, they have trouble existing altogether in the in the in the cinematic landscape. Right. And they have it's it's not every actor who will actually do that. Right. Um, Leo's one of our best actors, incredible actor, never been never been never been in a musical. Daniel Day Lewis tried. Daniel Day Lewis tried, right? And again, that's why Daniel Day Lewis is Daniel Day Lewis, right?

SPEAKER_00: 1:36:12

Um actually, but it's also evident that it's one of his weakest films.

SPEAKER_01: 1:36:16

And it's one of his weakest films, and one of his weaker performances. It's not better than Tona's performance, for example. But you have to just say that idea that at least he was willing to say, as an actor, you know, I can be the lead actor of a musical, and and a man can do that, right? Uh uh an actor can do that. Um, and so I do think that that's something going against Tona, which is really unfortunate. I I wish more people would would talk about it, yeah, because that's an important thing to talk about. Is I'm really curious as to how many performances men uh, you know, uh actors have gotten in for for best actor by themselves without their counterpart, if that makes sense. You know, like um I know Richard Gere didn't get in for a whole mess of reasons, but I can't think of the last um musical performance that got nominated in Best Actor. Um and so that's something um that I'm that I'm aware of also and that he has to fight against. But I think the work is there. Um, and so I don't think can roadside get voters to see it. Right, and but so back again to that. When they couldn't get when they couldn't get audiences to see. So back again to that idea of a misjudged release. If this does go to streaming, and I think it will, I think that's the smart thing to do, there's a chance that it finds a wider audience there and it gets a second wind. Um, and I remember, for example, when Roadside, I think it was Roadside, I think it might have been Roadside Vertical collaboration when they took Emily the Criminal to Netflix and people started watching it and talking about it, and that was great. And Abi Plaza should have been you know deeper in the conversation for best actors that year. It was great. You know, she's fantastic in that film. Um, and so I I think something like that would benefit the film and could certainly still happen.

SPEAKER_00: 1:38:06

Right. But it would uh it would have to depend on who has the the streaming rights, right? Right. So we don't know yet, you know. Does does roadside have it? Does artist equity have it? We we're not sure.

SPEAKER_01: 1:38:16

Right. And even then again, roadside was able to, I think, broker that deal for Emily the criminal. Um right, that's true. And so it's not who is. And Netflix has a relationship with Jennifer Lopez. That's right, that's another thing going forward, right? And they have that, they've had success with Emilia Perez, right? Right. And so it's something that may be mutually beneficial and um that the movie would probably do well to sort of uh take advantage of.

SPEAKER_00: 1:38:42

But I also will say, you know, just as a final note, I I do wonder, you know, you bring up a lot of excellent points, but I wonder if this film had been a streaming film and avoided the box office, that may have that might have affected its critical reception a little bit, you know, because I think a lot of critics were um, I think a little bit more open-minded because it was a film that was trying to be made for theaters. Um, but I do wonder if, you know, having being able to to avoid, you know, the sort of box office performance would have really helped the movie, especially when, for example, Netflix has a terrific trajectory of getting their supporting actresses in to supporting actors. And in fact, this year is one of the more puzzling years. The last year, the only year they haven't been able to do it ever since they started with Mudbound was oddly enough, 2022. Um, and they were really struggling that year, and you know, they had to they had to uh pivot to all climbers front to land the best picture nomination. But besides that year, they've always gotten into supporting actors, and this year they really have only got Glenn Close in the Knives Owl film and Rebecca Ferguson in a house of dynamite, and we've seen a house of dynamite, a house of dynamite, it's not going to contend for acting awards. I disagree. I I well, okay. Yeah, I think I side note Idris Alba, watch out for Idris Alba. I think that it will not contend for any acting nominations. I think just the film doesn't resonate in that way. Um, even though I I thought Rebecca Ferguson was great. Um I think she gave the best performance in the piece. Um, but anyway, I don't think that there's a performance there that's going to be highlighted for voters. So it's really up to Glenn Close. Um, so again, you know, could things have been different had it been a streamer? I don't know.

SPEAKER_01: 1:40:31

I mean, it's certainly an interesting idea, but I also say unfortunately, you should watch the film on the big screen. It deserves the big screen and it was made for the big screen. Yeah. But unfortunately, you know, US audiences, you kind of get what you pay for. And so it's very tough to be sad about quality movies going to streaming when US audiences aren't really making the argument that they're really gonna show up. And so they've sort of made the argument that we're not gonna show up for Smashing Machine or Kiss of Spider Woman, then we're just gonna keep getting dumb movies. Um, like I don't know what Final Destination we're in. And I'm not a foundation, I'm not a Final Destination hater, but you know, Final Destination, when the audience says that that's what I want to see, and when critics say that that movie is a 70 whatever on Metacritic, you know, there's you know, up is down and down is up. And you know, don't just you can't go crying about you know why all these things are going to streaming when you're not really doing your part and sort of saying that they belong in the theater, yeah. 100% and you're not doing your part maybe as a critic saying that this is what the theater is for. Yeah, 100%. I agree with you completely. So I'm it that it's it's unfortunate, it's really a loss, I think. Like I said, for for audiences. Yeah, um, so if you get a chance to watch them, I would say double the if you double feature them, you're gonna be pleasantly surprised.

SPEAKER_00: 1:41:53

Yeah, at least watch them, yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:41:55

Um and pleasantly surprised, and I think you're gonna actually enjoy your time.

SPEAKER_00: 1:41:59

Yeah, um, I feel like we're in sad times right now with the box office, with theaters, it's it's a really sad time.

SPEAKER_01: 1:42:05

And it's also just tough out there, again, just politically, economically, it's just tough to go to the movies right now. Um, and so I'm glad we ended with those two movies, um, because I do think that of the ones we're talking about, those are the ones that I think are still very much deep in the hunt. They're just not hunting for spots one, two, or three anymore. They're just clearly hunting for spots five, four, and five. Um, and that nonetheless, I would be shocked, shocked if they're not Academy Award nominated films. To some in some degree. To some degree, like I said, I feel very confident about the the makeup nomination, and I feel very confident about the costume design nomination.

SPEAKER_00: 1:42:50

Right. Right. And so, you know, um, we'll next talk about the New York Film Festival, which wrapped up. We've been to the New York Film Festival, we love the New York Film Festival. It's sort of kind of categorized as like, you know, America's can, uh, which I think is is is nice, even though there were some weird choices this year. That's what I was gonna say. There were some weird, puzzling choices.

SPEAKER_01: 1:43:11

Everyone should check out the New York Film Festival, best film festival in the US. Um, it's very much, I mean, that's really kind of their agenda is to be the American can.

SPEAKER_03: 1:43:20

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:43:20

Um, picking out the best American festival, which is great. That's awesome. Um, sometimes they do their job very well, sometimes they do their job questionably. And this was one of their, this was one of those years, and it starts with after the hunt getting, you know, panned at Venice and then deciding that that's the movie that needs to open the New York Film Festival. Right. Which again, I'm gonna make the argument that if if you watch it when it comes out on streaming, um, certainly not a film you have to watch in the theaters, um, if you if you watch it, that there's something going on in in the actual film, if you read it between the lines as to why it would make an interesting opening for the New York Film Festival. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:44:01

Um, I will also say Amazon might have a hand there because they films tend to, as of late, get uh New York Film Festival spots. Of course.

SPEAKER_01: 1:44:10

But you also have like a bunch of films that went to New York. We're not going to go through the entire lineup, just the really important stuff. Um, but again, Jay Kelly went. That's sort of been um polar divisive uh reception between Venice and uh uh Tyreet.

SPEAKER_00: 1:44:27

I think it did well in Tyrod. I didn't do so well in Venice, and again, not so well at New York. That's what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_01: 1:44:32

New York tends to do a little bit more solid, really well-liked films from the Cinephile sphere that show up there. I think that maybe, and again, it's just the sun of the times we're in. There's maybe a little bit of pressure on the festival, and he said maybe perform a little bit better in terms of ticket sales, and that's why you have Julio Roberts opening the film festival, and you have maybe Adam Sandler there with George Clooney. Of course, they love Noah Bomback anyway. Um, but I'm sure all those things help. Um, and so those films went, House of Dynamite went, you know, did not have the reception it was looking for. Um, great to see uh if I had legs at kick you went there, and it's about to come out. I think it's already out in Sedg Theaters kind of expand. Yeah, it comes up. Um, I think one of the big events to actually talk about is just Jafar Panahi was able to go. Oh, that's he had a discussion with Marty. Yes, it's great. Uh looks amazing and it sounds amazing, and I think just goes to show you that it was just an accident, is a top five movie for best picture, best director, screenplay, etc. Um, I don't think enough people are paying attention. Like you and I have been discussing casting. Casting. Do not sleep on it for casting. Do not sleep on it. But just goes to show you that his story just resonates with so many people um in the industry, so many people who love movies, Jafar Panahis. And so that's definitely gonna happen this year. And that was, I think, a big takeaway for me is just how beloved that filmmaker is and um how that movie is just poised for success and possibly poised for at least one big win. Yeah, right. Um Mastermind went, No Other Choice did well, uh did well, Resurrection, um, Romaria Secret Agent did well. Um, not no surprise there. Surratt did really well. Um, Sound of Falling, um Magellan did well. Um, so a lot of really interesting films. I think the thing that we should talk about the most, though, is you know, the premieres. Um, and so on the main slate section, let's talk about the closing night film, right? Um and I I'm actually glad we're talking about these films, the two movies to talk about the most, um, because something really interesting happened that I think is really shady and petty, and you know me, I I love the pettiness, I live for the pettiness. Um, but Fox Searchlight goes ahead, Fox Searchlight, Disney Searchlight or Searchlight, um, went ahead and announced that they had acquired An Lee finally, just right before Belly Cooper's new film premiered at New York.

SPEAKER_03: 1:47:10

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:47:11

Um, I didn't think it was a great move. I I wouldn't like the move if I was a collaborator with with Searchlight. Um, because it sort of just kind of announces that we don't have faith in this movie. We don't have faith in this movie. Um, certainly not the faith that we had in Rental Family. That's why we didn't announce the acquisition then, or that's why we didn't, you know, you know, skyrocket the deal in our terms of our priority list. Took a while then. It took it took a while for them to finally say, Yeah, we don't really have anything.

SPEAKER_00: 1:47:39

Yeah, because the Buddha list was three days after Venice. This was like a month or month and a half after Venice.

SPEAKER_01: 1:47:43

They basically, yeah, it took a while for someone to say we don't have anything, and it makes sense for it to be Searchlight because they're not gonna be as exhausted as Sony Classics, which is just Sony and Sony Classics, and certainly not Mubi, which doesn't have anything but its own streaming service. You know, don't forget Searchlight is now part of Disney, and so they have deeper pockets, and so it makes sense that it's Searchlight. Um, but I didn't think it was a great move for them to do that to Bradley Cooper. Um, and so the film premiered, and it seems like it did well. I think audiences liked it, I think it ended the festival on a high note. Um, very much New York story. A lot of people championing um the performances, uh, what Will Arnett does, what Laura Dern does. Um, I think a lot of people also sort of surprised it's a little bit more of a low-key Bradley Cooper movie. And I think if you're someone who loves you know high key, high key key, right? High key Bradley Cooper, maybe it's not gonna be your cup of tea. But if you're someone who's not big on high-key Bradley Cooper, like I myself have not, then it certainly sounds like something you're gonna want to check out. Um, and so the film I think was met, you know, pretty well solid with pretty solid by critics and I think viewers, but nonetheless, it doesn't seem like it has the package to go the distance in any particular category at the academy. I mean, certainly something to look out for at the Golden Globes.

SPEAKER_00: 1:49:08

It certainly feels like a very much Will Arnett and Laura Durham will get nominated at the Golden Globes.

SPEAKER_01: 1:49:13

Maybe the WGA with all their you know ined uh ineligibilities um could still factor in there. Um, even Will Arnett at the SAG, because he rarely gets an opportunity to lead a film. What don't you know that could still happen? And um, but I just feel like this is the kind of film where if it's gonna get any traction, like had it premiered at Sundance and had the same reception, if it's gonna get any traction, it's because their studio distributor is absolutely committed to them. Yeah, and with their announcement, it just shows that Searchlight is not committed at all. Yeah, and that they're gonna throw their weight behind Anne Lee. Right. We have a great article um on the website, frames and flicker.com, talking about how the um Anne Lee acquisition is really mirroring what they did in 2016 with Jackie, which actually ended up being the last time that they were snubbed from Best Picture altogether. So it's not that's not that's not who you want to model yourself after.

SPEAKER_00: 1:50:11

And again, it's the the the comparisons are striking because Jackie's an incredible movie and it had a very good uh critical reception and really underperformed. It only got it's a film that could have easily been nine for best picture in terms of quality. You would think, yeah, but it was not, it was only nine for three awards, it won nothing.

SPEAKER_03: 1:50:28

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00: 1:50:28

Um, so yeah, I feel and Lee is yeah, mirroring it quite quite in a problematic way if you're searchlight.

SPEAKER_01: 1:50:35

Um, but so then uh is this thing on ends up um premiering? Um, and we're gonna keep an eye on it. And we're gonna, I think we're gonna be able to screen it um soon. Um, but definitely doesn't look like it's gonna be a major Oscar player in any category, but look out for it in those um some of those televised awards. Um yeah, at this point it would need like again a huge box office uh hall. And again, people just can't afford to do it.

SPEAKER_00: 1:50:59

And you know, I wonder, and I wonder that I wonder if that's a a missed opportunity because as you were saying, actress, we need a veteran actor there. And you have Laura Dern. Yeah, you know, who could fill that spot. Yeah, you know, if you are savvy enough and you're pushing a film, if you're pushing your film.

SPEAKER_01: 1:51:17

Exactly. I I think that's that would have been a great case. And she had two movies this year. So had she had she been in better movies, you would think, what Laura Dern has been nominated for lead actress since Rambling Rose. So perfect scenario to put her back in lead. Um, but I think more people are, I mean, I think people are also celebrating Will Arnett's turn because it's very uncharacteristic and they're and and I think um it was also very moving. Yeah, um, so that premiered, uh, anemone premiered, we've discussed that already. Um, very divisive. And again, it's a we it was a weird year for New York Film Festival, and it just seemed to me like they needed to do everything they could to beef up ticket sales. Um, I don't think they got the best films, I think they got some really good films um and some great films from Cannes, but I don't think they got the best films from the other festivals. Um and I think they had they needed more marquee names, but they did have what is again probably a huge, huge um premiere for um the fall, which is they ended up having Marty Supreme as the secret scre as the secret screening.

SPEAKER_00: 1:52:25

Right, and I will say that I think most people felt that just that screening alone kind of made it the fall festival.

SPEAKER_01: 1:52:33

And I will say that maybe then what happened was that they blew their budget on getting Marty Supreme to play there. Um, I think supposedly the there's uh the idea is that Josh was really racing to finish the film in time, that he finished the mix or something like an hour before it showed. Right. Um, and so that was part of the story, a part of the narrative.

SPEAKER_00: 1:52:56

Let's also say part of that, you know, in the vein of that pettiness that you were talking about, which is sort of weird that you know the smashing machine that had just underperformed at the box office. And then A24 just goes on and says, you know what, you know, well, never mind. This is a real horse I hear at Marty Supreme.

SPEAKER_01: 1:53:13

So after, you know, everyone has to talk about, you know, the Dwayne Johnson, the box office, and the smashing machine, and how could that ever happen and what what went wrong and all of that, you know, then you have A24 saying, and the secret screening is gonna be Marty, and it's clearly gonna be the movie we're gonna prioritize, the safety we're gonna prioritize. And so again, like the move against Bradley Cooper. Again, if I was right Benny Safty and or if he was as immature as me, I certainly wouldn't take my next movie at A24. Um, over there, you know, people are taking a photo of me. I'm taking a photo of myself with the sandwich board saying, Come and watch my movie, right? And then your brother's movie basically, I think, sells out in 15 minutes at the New York Film Festival, and they couldn't even get you a spot, you know, on the spotlight section or something, or screen you at Film Lincoln Center. I have no idea, but and also weird that you know Benny won Best Director at Venice and there was no mention of Josh, and right Josh didn't mention Benny at all during the you know, and again, you we have no idea of what I'll tell you what, Liz, but if I think the most professional thing is let the Safety Safties uh do whatever it is that they have to do in terms of omit whoever they want to in their speeches and in in their you know in their expression of gratitude, but as the as the as the parent, if you're A24, you are you should not really select between your children, right? At least you shouldn't make it that obvious. Like, fine, you have a favorite child, but you don't announce it to the world, right? That okay, you know, this is this is my favorite kid, right? Um, and so anyway, Marty Supreme premieres um Through the Roof, Through the Roof. So 17 Minutes sold out. Um, Josh is there to introduce it. Uh Chalamet is there to introduce the cast is there. Um plays really well, and you know, people absolutely adore it.

SPEAKER_00: 1:55:18

And there was a running, there was a really funny gag on Twitter of right, yeah. This is, you know, this meets this, meets this. Yeah, and people ram with it. There was one that was like, this is precious, great, yeah, precious meets Coach Carter. Coach Carter meets Dudley Doolittle meets.

SPEAKER_01: 1:55:35

Yeah, it's absolutely ridiculous. But obviously, people were very excited about it, and um, I think it got a tremendous reception, and I think that alone was enough to make it a worthwhile New York film festival. I'm not sure the last time they've had a secret screening that was that big. Um uh I think I've always had the caveat, and I've mentioned it in our updated predictions, just the idea that you know the screening sold out in 17 minutes. I was skeptical. I thought it would be Ann Lee because it had just been acquired, and I thought it made sense for Searchlight to make that move. But people started talking about in film Twitter how you know press was being told that they were under embargo and they couldn't write reviews for it, just social media reactions, which kind of already shows you that um whoever it's gonna be, it's first of all, it's gonna be a new movie. Um, second, that they're not afraid as to what the social media reaction is gonna be, um, and that they want that word of mouth. Um and I will say that let's be honest, that screening was full of safety fans and moviegoers that enjoy 24 films, that enjoy the New York Film Festival, that enjoy 24 films, and that enjoy safety films, yeah, and that probably see Uncut Gems as you know the citizen cane of the last 10 years, right? Um and that's not necessarily Oscar voters, right? Um, so I will say that to me, I'm still very much debating as to how well it's going to perform with Oscar voters who are more stuffy, right? Uh we know already that they don't like Safety movies because they have never nominated a Safety movie. Right. So, you know, whichever Safety movie gets nominated this time, um, even if it's makeup for Smashing Machine, that'll be the first nomination that a Safety film has ever gotten. Right. And so I do think you have to take that into consideration. Um, this wasn't this was not the crowd you were trying to win over. Right. This isn't the Venice crowd, this isn't the the the crowd from Cannes, this isn't the the crowd from Telly Ride. Remember when they went to Telly Ride with one cut gems? The crowd was not into it at all. Right, right. And so this was not the crowd that you were testing. At the same time, you know, credit to A24 for understanding that I'm not gonna take it to Telleride this year. I would rather take it to New York. Very smart. Um, not not the same smarts they had for smashing machine release, but yes, very smart to take it to New York Film Festival. Um, so it's still very much a question in the air, I think, as to will voters be as impressed. But even if they're not, it's very clear that A24 has nothing else. Right. That this is what they've got to push. They're big their big push. The their big push, you know, by process of elimination. I mean, they really put themselves in a position where they have nothing else to choose from. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:58:32

Um, but I also will say that, you know, we've yet we're we're unsure how much the academy to what extent they're willing to embrace the Safety film, the Safti brothers. Um, but I will say that I do feel that they're at a moment in their career that they have an esteem amongst, you know, uh Cinephiles, and many filmmakers are cinephiles, um, you know, that you know, look at look back at a film like Uncut Gems and look back at it fondly, and look back at it as a film that deserved more recognition than it got, and look back at their other films like heaven knows what, uh, good time, and have a lot of respect for what they do. So I think it's no question that it's only a matter of time before the Safti brothers break through with the Academy. Um, and this seems to be a year where that would happen with two Safety projects sort of dueling each other in a way, um, that they're destined to be embraced by the academy at some point. Um, I just like you, I question to what degree. And usually the pattern that we see at the academy is that when a filmmaker starts to sort of amass uh well, when they start embracing a filmmaker into the fold, it happens like little by little.

SPEAKER_03: 1:59:48

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00: 1:59:48

You know, it happens, they get one or two nominations, and then the next time they get even more nominations. So, for example, look at Joaquim Trier, who had already broken through with worst person in the world in 2021 and got a screenplay nomination. People were really Happy about that. And now he's going to get a best picture nomination and a best director nomination. Yeah. And so that sort of um, you know, gradual transition exists for a lot of filmmakers. It's more typical. Right. Instead of like ba boom, you know, you go from zero to ten. Look at Sean Baker. Look at Sean Baker, who went from having one nomination for the Florida project, having at least some sort of presence, and then eventually getting the six nominations for Honora and winning Best Picture. Right. It's it's rare for it to happen, you know, uh a complete 180, zero to a bunch. It did happen last year, for example, with Brady Cooper or Brady Corbet. Yeah. Um, a filmmaker they hadn't embraced yet, um, and then all of a sudden get 10 nominations. But I'll also say that people like Brady Corbet and people like Barry Jenkins, who are able to manage such a such a big transition from being completely not present to being omnipresent in a way. Um, in a way, it feels like those films were like introductions to the film to the academy, and that helped the transition as opposed to, I guess, the feeling that the academy is already aware of the Safty brothers. Right. Um, to some degree. And so it's more about finally accepting him into the group.

SPEAKER_01: 2:01:15

No, I I agree. And I think I think you're pointing to a great example. I think that the Brutalist and Moonlight, for example, demonstrated a an amount of maturity that I'm not sure is gonna be there in Marty Supreme yet. Um, and it starts with ideas where, like, you know, you have the stunt casting of Kevin O'Leary, who people say is excellent in the film. Yeah, excellent. He I and it he looked excellent in the trailer. Yeah, we didn't know. Yeah, right? He did. But I will say that there's that idea that it's maybe a little bit easier to widely recognize Corbet and Barry Jenkins because they're not doing something so risky as casting Kevin O'Leary.

SPEAKER_00: 2:01:54

Yeah, but I will also say, you know, it's very as you as you're saying, it there's a reason why Brady Corbet gets accepted, quote unquote, with the Boudalist and not accepted with Vox Locks.

SPEAKER_03: 2:02:04

Mm-hmm. Exactly.

SPEAKER_00: 2:02:05

Absolutely. Right. And I, you know, I will add that some people are saying that this is, you know, very safty, but at the same time, like much more palatable, much more accessible, much more. I think people were saying that sort of a crowd pleaser, which would help. It would help, and it's certainly not the first thing you think of when you think of a safty films, a crowd pleaser. Yeah. Um, but at the same time, you're hearing other reactions like this is uncut gems dialed to 10 to 20. Yes. So then which one is it? You know, which one is it, A or B? Because it can't be both.

SPEAKER_01: 2:02:35

I I'm not sure it can be both, and I'm not sure that uncut gems dialed to 10 is gonna do the trick.

SPEAKER_03: 2:02:40

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:02:41

Um, but you know, if if we look at just the idea that A24 is gonna get someone into Best Picture, it basically has to be Marty Supreme at this point. Yeah, it's well received. Some people are talking about the again, the idea that it's going to be a massive movie to get possibly even double nominations, um, excuse me, double digit nominations. Uh A24 has only done that twice. Right. That's everything, everywhere, all at once, which won Best Picture, and last year's The Brutalist, right? Which scored 10. I'm not sure that the piece again has the maturity to get uh double nominations. First of all, I haven't seen it, but it's difficult for me to accept the idea that it's in the actual hunt to win. Right. I think I'd need to see, you know, really good box office numbers for me to start thinking that. Again, just the idea that it's very difficult for your film, you know, for someone who hasn't been embraced yet to go in and all of a sudden win um Best Picture. And so I think that that that hurts the idea of double nominations.

SPEAKER_00: 2:03:45

And also, we don't know yet how well it's gonna do at the box office. I mean, people are saying that it's such a crowd pleaser, and certainly Timothy Chalamet is very hot right now. Um, so that people are assuming that it's gonna be a big success. I think it's A24's um hot, you know, uh most expensive film today. I I'm pretty sure I heard something like 90 million, I think. No, I think I heard something like that. There's no way. I think so. We have to confirm that for the next time. Uh, and so the pressure's on to sort of meet that, you know, uh bar being A24's most expensive film. Is this is a safty film, at least the safty films that I know, are they meant to be 90 million grossing films? Uh not really. Very difficult to see that happening at the same time.

SPEAKER_01: 2:04:32

Again, just about that element of maturity and you know, typical Oscar tastes. Then they come out with the video promoting the film, which is you know, which is great, great marketing for film Twitter. I'm not sure it's gonna get, you know, we'll be Goldberg to say, I really have to go watch Marty Supreme now. Um, you know what I mean? Um, so I do wonder again if the energy is just a little bit youthful for the academy and then then and and if they're gonna be able to get on the same wavelength. I think it helps um that again it's A24's, you know, only option. Um, I think it helps that Timothy Chalamet is in a position where like can he even lose this right after last year?

SPEAKER_00: 2:05:20

Yeah, I think yeah, I think Timothy Chalamet's candidacy is something that's really working in the favor for this film. Um, because if you look at obviously Oscar history, the best actor winner, their films tend to be nominated for best picture. Traditionally, um, it would be extremely strange when that doesn't happen. The last time it didn't happen was Um The Whale with Brendan Fraser, but there was a reason for that. I mean, that film was not received really well critically. Everything seems to suggest that this film will at least be received critically, you know, well. And it was probably really close too. Yeah, it was probably like number 11. Got the PGA tag, exactly, and it ended up winning two of its three Oscars. Um, so a Best Actor winner has typically a film that gets an I for best picture and is a serious contender. Um, I think Timothy Chalamet stands the best chance to win because quite simply the feat of being able to go back to back and having three nominations at his age, all in lead actor, by the way, um, is going to be an impressive accomplishment. Right. And in him getting that third nomination, especially consecutively from just last year, it's going to sort of, it's sort of a uh proving himself to his peers that he's the real deal and that giving him an Oscar at this early age is not weird. It's sort of uh, you know, it's called for, you know, because he has a range that is not uh typical and already under his belt has so much success and is already primed to be one of the big uh you know uh actors of his generation. Um, and so there's they would sort of mint that with um crown that with a with a best actor win. And if you look at the field, you know, even though again, oddly enough, that's the paradox of the best actor base, it's packed with contenders, but it's not packed with potential winners. You know, there aren't a lot of people that you can see, oh, that's a runaway winner there. Um, and so that really benefits Timothy Chalamet in this category. And so which also benefits Best Picture. Which benefits Best Picture. Um, how how much further can the film go besides Best Picture and Best Actor? I mean, certainly I think screenplay, I think, is is an obvious one. Especially if Josh Safty misses for best director, he'll be recognized in the screenplay category.

SPEAKER_01: 2:07:46

That's actually the most fascinating one, right? Which is so I'm comfortable with picture, I'm comfortable with actor, I'm comfortable with screenplay. Um, based on it being uh a safety movie and a sports movie, I think film editing is a good option. I think Jack Fisk, yeah, um, the production designer hardly ever comes out. He's a legend. Um, you know, he never comes out and and you know gives you something less than worthwhile and less than something you want to celebrate. And so I think he's in an excellent position.

SPEAKER_00: 2:08:17

Um I did find it strange that after the screening, people were saying costume design more than production design. And I know that you know, based on the stills that I've seen, there was a lot of recreation of the era, and that's very it looks very impressive. And Jack Fisk is again a legend, Jack Fisk. So it's hard for me to think that they would opt to nominate a costume designer that they've never recognized yet and not Jack Fisk.

SPEAKER_01: 2:08:40

Yeah, I I kind of kind of feel like the costume designer can get in with Jack Fisk. Jack Fisk can bring the costume designer in, right? As opposed to we put we nominated the costume designer, but left out the production design. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me. Maybe we have to see the film, but again, just his reputation. Um, maybe some people are you know drawing a parallel between how everything everywhere was able to get that costume nomination with a lack of competition, but I just don't see it in the cards that way. Um, so those are five if you put um production designer. I think casting is a really good choice here.

SPEAKER_00: 2:09:13

It's it's strange because we don't know how casting is gonna play out this year. Um, you know, obviously it's the newest category. How's what are they gonna prioritize? You know, we won't know that until this year when we see what the category looks like. Are they gonna prioritize you know, films that have a very interesting, wide, diverse net of actors involved, casting decisions involved, or is it gonna be a little bit more safe, you know, conventional? We don't know. Is it gonna depend on how well the casting director is known or not? You know, and I think that's that that that's a big question mark, but certainly the film is strong in that category because you know the casting and the Safety films tends to be really um unorthodox, out of the box, and very street casting, exactly, and very uh and uh a big reason why their films uh are so successful because of this solo sort of colorful casting. And um, and that's certainly the case here. I mean, there were many, many memorable performances, supposedly from the entire film, top to bottom. Um, almost everyone said, well, technically, you know, Timothy Chalamet is the anchor, and so he was at the top.

SPEAKER_04: 2:10:27

Yes.

SPEAKER_00: 2:10:27

But when we talk about the ensemble, everyone was talking about Kevin O'Leary and saying that he is the by far the second best performance. Other people were completely in love with Odessa Azion for her performance. Other people really liked Gwyneth Patro. I heard I I heard Abel Ferreira has a very memorable part. Tied of the creator, tight of the creator. So I mean, uh there's just a feast of really uh you know uh appreciated performances in the movie.

SPEAKER_01: 2:10:51

We just don't know again how the casting branch is going to end up voting, but I think it's a strong contender there, and then everyone talks about the music, right? And I think it's a strong contender there as well.

SPEAKER_00: 2:11:02

Everyone says the music is unmissable, but I will say that we've been in that territory before where a score was so uh integral to the DNA of a film, and it still missed out. So everyone, I mean, the Changer score last year was fucking amazing. Yeah, um, and you know, I thought from the very you know beginning of its awards prospects, I thought, no way they're gonna nominate that. And then it got to this place where it felt like, yeah, it's gonna build the globe. It's gonna actually happen, and then it doesn't happen right because it's just not what they go for, right? And then I think that's still here, you know. Point never, yeah, you know, um is not uh uh you know a musician that they've uh embraced before. Um, we don't know how they're gonna react to the music. I heard that the music sort of has this 80s feel, so there's sort of this anachronistic element. Element to the to the entire thing. You know, we don't know. I don't think that that's a slam dunk. I think that, you know, based on quality, it would seem like a slam dunk, but a snub can happen there. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:12:07

I mean, if you look at all those, and I I listed off picture, actor, screenplay, film editing, production design, score, and casting. I think seven is the number that I'm comfortable with right now. I haven't seen it yet. I like six narrative, yeah. I like the narrative is pointing to me to seven. Their best day would also include a nomination for Kevin O'Leary and supporting actor, Odessa John for supporting actress, Gwynna Poucher for supporting actress, cinematography, the costume design, director. Um, and finally director, and that's six more, right? And now we're talking about being in the 13 nomination area. I don't think that this is the film to do that because best picture is just too competitive. And so when the Brutalist scores 10 nominations, it's because Brady Corbet was winning best director at the BAFTA. Right. I think it's too competitive this year to have Josh Safty anywhere near winning best director at the BAFTA. Winning winning best director anywhere. Right. Um, I haven't seen it yet again. So for all I know, this is the best picture winner, right? But barring that, just between Sinners and Hamnet, one bat after another, it's gonna be one hell of a fight already.

SPEAKER_04: 2:13:23

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:13:24

And so I'm not sure that Josh Afty's first uh introduction into the Oscars is going to be a powerful enough narrative. I mean, Ryan Kugler is going to get his hopefully his first directing nomination this year, right? Right? And so do you really bring in Josh for at the same time? Right. And so another thing is that Josh is a director and a writer and an editor on this. Right. So are you gonna nominate Josh three or four times? I think he's a producer on it too. So you're gonna it's difficult for me to do that.

SPEAKER_00: 2:13:56

Back to that idea of going from zero to four.

SPEAKER_01: 2:13:58

Right. And so great, Sean Baker gets nominated for four, he wins all four. I'm not sure that with this competition that Josh would win any of his any of his categories. And so I'm not sure he would be able to, he should land in all four of those.

SPEAKER_00: 2:14:18

He's positioned in a way right now, at least again, it's all kind of just going off social media reviews. Um, but right now it's positioned in a way where I can certainly see Josh winning screenplay. Um, I think it could win best original screenplay. It could. I mean, I think it's gonna be competitive. I think it's gonna be competitive.

SPEAKER_01: 2:14:36

Well, I'm actually glad that I brought that up because if there's one person to kick out of director, yes, I would argue it's Joaquim Trier for sentimental value. I would argue difficult to imagine, right? Um, but maybe if you know the voters are going to decide that sometimes we have writers, directors, you know, and they can be nine for both, like Paul Thomas Anderson. And then we have writers, directors who are really just writers, like Noel Bomback, who don't have to be nine for director. Right. If they're gonna classify Joaquim as the latter, then maybe that's one reason why he they're not gonna rush to nominate him for director, even if he was successful with worst person in the world. That said, because it is about the industry and about the art form to some extent, I still like his chances better than Josh's.

SPEAKER_00: 2:15:22

Right. I 100% agree. I think that that film is going to, you know, is is sort of arthouse enough, elegant enough that it's going to speak to a lot of people. Um, I actually think the spot that would lose out to a Josh Safty best director nomination is going to be Chloe Zhao for Hamlet, which I know sounds crazy to all of these, but quite simply put, it's a move that I can totally see the director's branch doing because Chloe Zhao was just there, because she's already won, and they might feel like I want to leave a more open space for new people into the fold. You know, PTA has never won, um, even though he's been nominated several times. Chloe Zhao has already won. Twice. Um twice? No, because she won Best Picture, also. Oh, exactly. Exactly. So, you know, I think there's a very real possibility that if they feel that tempted to include Josh Safty for best director, the person who's gonna get, you know, get taken out is gonna be Chloe Zhao. Um, which again, right now, seems um seems unlikely. Um uh and that's one reason why I'm I'm not so bullish on the Josh Safty best director nomination.

SPEAKER_01: 2:16:34

And I think the one reason why we're sort of harping on this one element is because A24 gets their directors in. Yeah, they have inroads with this branch, and so like this goes all the way back to Lenny Abrahamson getting in for room out of nowhere, right? Right, and they're able to get that spot for Barry Jenkins, for uh the director Minari, Greta Gerwig, Brady Corvette, yeah, and so this is a category where they traditionally do well, yeah. And so you'll know if Marty Supreme is possibly a bigger threat because Josh will end up here. Yeah, um, but my gut says that it's just too competitive for Josh to get in. So it's the first year they don't make it. It would be the first year that they have a best picture nominee among the listed films that doesn't get in for best director. And so, for example, uh Celine Song doesn't get in for past lives, but they had Jonathan Glazer get in Glazer, yeah, for the zone of interest. Yeah, and so technically A24 should get into this category as long as Marty Supreme is the best picture thing. Yeah, um, so that's the one that feels really odd. So their best day is 13. I feel like the number is seven. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 2:17:55

If you put in Josh, that's eight. Right. But I also add just really quick, you know, before we wrap up on Supreme, that I'm really curious as to what's gonna happen in the supporting categories. Because in a way, the film feels so centered around Timothy Chalamet, and you have people online saying, you know, it's the Timothy show full stop, even though everyone is great. And then other people saying everyone is so great that it's gonna contend everywhere. Other people saying, Hey, get ready, Kevin O'Leary is really gonna make a splash. Are we really thinking that the Academy is gonna go that far? And then you get to a category like supporting actors, which has two contenders in Mario Supreme, which is a a theme this year in the supporting actress race, you know, with movies having several uh contenders um in the same film. Um, uh, you know, what what happens? Does Odessa uh get in even though she's only 25 and you know she doesn't have a a ton of uh credits? Or does Gwyneth Patrol get in after a long acting break, you know, where she's mostly focused on her lifestyle brand of goop? You know, are actors gonna feel like, oh, you're back after a break. I'm gonna nominate you right now as soon as you're back. You know, you know, something about the supporting nominations is very uh, you know, uh confusing to me. I don't know what's gonna happen yet. I do know that a best actor winning performance tends to have, more often than not, at least another counterpart nominated somewhere else. You know, there's a handful that haven't had it, for example, like Joaquin Phoenix and Joker. Um, so it has happened, but the majority of the times it is a Brendan Fraser sort of scenario where a supporting player tends to also get in, you know, Will Smith, Anjana Newellis, you know, it tends to happen. Um, is this gonna be one of those best actor potential best actor winners that no one no other actor was nominated alongside him? Or are we getting ready for a surprise nomination in the supporting categories? I have yet to see it.

SPEAKER_01: 2:19:55

I'm I have yet to see it, but my gut impression is that this performance, the way people are talking about it to Timothy's performance, is closer to the Joaquin Phoenix performance in Joker, in the sense that it's such um a quintessential part of a part of the experience, you know, possibly the experience, is you know, through his performance that it overshadows everything else. And so I also think that there's an element about the way that the character is going to be captured from the filmmakers and uh Chalamet that makes it feel like a larger than life performance, and that actually, in my opinion, works against a second acting nomination. So when you have like Danny Day Lewis, you know, basically acting everyone else out of the scene in There Will Be Blood, or Joaquin Phoenix doing the same thing in Joker, it's difficult to get those supporting performances in or noticed. Um I think it's the more grounded work, the more sentimental work. Um like Will Smith and King Richard or Brendan Fraser in The Whale, that they have that scene, usually an emotional scene, usually a scene, you know, that pulls at the heartstrings that gets that disappointing performance in. First of all, I'm not sure that Josh really wants to pull on anyone's heartstrings, number one. Um number two, even if that were the case, it seems to me that the way that Timothy Chalamet is, you know, the way he's tackling the performance, he is going to overshadow his screen partner. And so I really don't think I see it that way. Again, that's just my impression based on what I've seen in the trailer, what I've heard about the performance, and again, what I see in the promotional videos. But also the if it's a Timothy Chalamet show, that's it.

SPEAKER_00: 2:21:59

Right strictly speaking, right? But also the cons of the individual contenders in these supporting races, Kevin O'Lear, that doesn't help Odessa, Gweneth Powell troll. You know, I'm just not sure I see a slam dunk somewhere.

SPEAKER_01: 2:22:11

You know, yeah, it's almost to me like what I've been seeing is the opposite of one battle after another, where again, I really do think that if you ask, if you poll people on who their favorites are in the who their favorite is in the film, you're gonna end up more or less tied amongst all the characters. I don't think anyone's ever gonna compete against their uh the favorite of Marty Supreme, it's gonna be Timothy Chalamet by 97%. You know, um, if you really hated his performance, then you're gonna say, no, my favorite was Kevin O'Leary. Right. You know, and so I really don't see it getting much traction there. I think the I the only nomination I'm unsure of is director because uh technically A24 should be there, but I just don't see uh how there's any room.

SPEAKER_00: 2:22:55

Right, or it's gonna be a big snub.

SPEAKER_01: 2:22:57

Yeah, it could be a big snub. I mean, there's also a chance someone had you know positioned the idea or or or expressed on film Twitter again that maybe this movie is a little bit more Babylon than people are letting on.

SPEAKER_04: 2:23:12

Really?

SPEAKER_01: 2:23:12

Yeah, that if you like Josh's film, Safety films, you're gonna like this film. But if you're not that nuts about it, then it may be a lesser Safety film. Um or maybe a lesser film altogether. And so I will say that I was kind of surprised that the number it started at at IMDB, like it was like a 7.4, which to me is kind of low compared to all the talk I was hearing from a lot of major pundits saying that best the best picture win is more complicated now because it's not just Hamnet and Sinners and one bad after another. Now there's Marty Supreme too.

SPEAKER_00: 2:23:48

Right, right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:23:49

It just doesn't seem to me like if that were the case, that it should be starting at a 7.4, right?

SPEAKER_00: 2:23:54

And yeah, uh, and I think there's an air of you know, uh skepticism. Is this overhypedness? Hyperbally, yeah. Or are we, you know, serious here? And we've been in the room, right? I know that, for example, one of the critics that we quite like, oh yeah, Stephanie, Stephanie Zakrick from Time, I believe. She didn't, it didn't seem like she enjoyed it. Seems like she really didn't like it. Yeah. Um, so we know at least it'll get one non-positive review. Yeah, right. Exactly. Um, and so you know, it's just it's hard to read right now. It's that's the problem when you have all you have to go on is social media, yeah. And again, so much of social media is something premieres, it's amazing. Something else premieres, it's amazing. Something else premieres, honestly, exactly.

SPEAKER_01: 2:24:35

Which is pure hyperbole, which is part of why it's a race. You have your festival premiere, your press screening. We were in the room, we're we've been in the room when a film premieres, and just the energy in the room is just contagious, and the excitement is electric, yeah, and it's just not the same when you hit reality. And so we were in the room in 2016 when 20th Century Woman premiered. Oh yeah, and I thought that was the best film of the year, and there there's no way that A24 doesn't campaign that movie into a best picture nomination, right? That I thought, you know, that's that's picture screenplay, actress, actress, Annette Benning is finally gonna win for 20th Century Women because it's a brilliant film, right? Right, how can you love movies and not love this movie, even if it's not super showy? That just doesn't happen, right? And so, like being in the room changes everything, yeah, absolutely everything. Yeah, 100%. So that's something you always have to keep in mind. But that said, you know, just based on the fact that A24 hasn't prioritized anything else and essentially railroaded Benny and that Timothy Chalamet right now stands to win best actor. Yeah, and I will say this that I haven't seen it yet, right? But I have seen the secret agent. Right, we've both seen it, yeah. We've both seen it, and I've always been on the even if I think that you called the win for Wagner way faster than I did, because I was a huge fan of two prosecutors. Right. But if Timothy Chalamet is going to give speeches this year, anywhere near his Zach speech, he should be very afraid of Wagner ever getting on a stage. Because nobody's voting for Timothy Chalamet to give me that Zach speech three times. You know, I don't have to hear that again.

SPEAKER_00: 2:26:34

Well, I will say that I do think right now it's his to lose, Timothy's, but I do think his biggest competition will end up being. I know people are saying Leo DiCaprio. That's not Leo, guys. No way. The biggest competition you'll have is going to be Wagner Mora.

SPEAKER_01: 2:26:48

It's going to be Golden Globe comedy winner, Timothy Chalamet, who hopefully gives a better speech, versus Wagner Mora, Golden Globe drama winner, who will give an excellent speech.

SPEAKER_04: 2:27:00

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:27:01

And so it's, I think, a race between those two. And I'm and I'm saying that Timothy Shalom, it's all it's really all going to come down to Timothy Chalamet's speeches and whether he had enough media training to help make those speeches a little bit better.

SPEAKER_00: 2:27:14

I d I think that honestly, I I see it a little differently. I think Timothy Chalamet getting nominated this soon, getting three nominations at this age, getting kind consecutive nominations after just last year playing Bob Dylan, and now we're gonna nominate him for playing another uh character based on a real life figure. That's going to be enough for him to win. And Vagnar Mara, it's his first nomination, you know. So he'll always have that asset uh on his side. And honestly, it's it's like you say oftentimes he's he's not on uh he's offense defense, you say it. Oh, that's right, but he's Otto Ron Battle. Yeah, he's uh we're on offense now, right? So so you know it's his to lose, Timothy's. But I do think his biggest competition people aren't putting enough stock into this is Wagner Morrow.

SPEAKER_01: 2:28:02

I think it's gonna come down to the speech, you know. No, like I said, if you remember when Anna Hathaway gave that speech for which you're getting married, yeah, and basically, like, yeah, torpedoed her chances. Like, you gotta come up with better speeches. You need to rewind every speech Demi Moore had last year and devise a strategy because again, at some point people are gonna get tired of that speech and be like, do I have to hear that a fourth time? Even if you're double nominated, I mean if you're nominated back to back, do I have to hear that?

SPEAKER_00: 2:28:31

I'm not sure his speeches would be about the same thing as the SAG last year. I think they'd be different.

SPEAKER_01: 2:28:35

I have no idea. I just don't, please don't.

SPEAKER_00: 2:28:38

Um, so yeah, I think that's where we're at with Marty Supreme. Right. And we wanted just to mention really quick is that you know, Halloween is coming up. That's right. They just announced Warner Brothers, who's having a that's having that they're having an incredible year, that they're going to release weapons on HBO Max for Halloween. And you know, we just want to say, you know, to finish off this episode, watch out for weapons because weapons right now, I think, is positioning itself to be a stronger contender than people are anticipating. We believe firmly that weapons will get nominated for a PGA, a producer's guild award. Yeah, we believe it will get nominated for a writer's guild award. And so you'll see pretty soon when the awards start coming out that weapons will be mentioned and mentioned and mentioned. And if you look at the landscape of categories, there are many spots where weapons tends to, you know, uh, you know, land a surprise nomination. It could absolutely land a nomination in makeup, it could absolutely land a nomination in supporting actress, it could land a nomination in screenplay, and it could very well land a nomination in best picture. Right. You know, I know that sounds crazy to a lot of people, but that's just the the the strong position that it's in.

SPEAKER_01: 2:29:52

And I also think we have, you know, limited competition and best picture, where can Neon get three? Films nominee for Best Picture with the Secret Agent. Or might it make more sense for Warner Brothers to get in? Maybe it makes more sense for Warner Brothers to do that. Maybe that makes more sense than Netflix getting two in. Yeah. Especially since none of them, you know, look to be huge, you know, to stand head and shoulders above the rest of them. Right. You know? And so I I think we've always had this idea, even when we watched it, just the fact that it's creatively ambitious, well received by critics, well received by audiences, it made money. It was a surprise sort of sleeper hit. Just that gets it a bunch of guild nominations, as the ones you just said. But you can you can maybe even a sag ensemble. Even a sag ensemble is on the table. You know, even I would even say even uh uh an ace Eddie Award for its editing on the drama side, that's on the table. Um, some of its sound work that's on the table because of the incredible amount of success it had. The question is, can weapons do what something like a quiet place failed to do in 2018, which is despite all those nominations, still only got the sound? And it's that it even won an award for Emily Blunt and supporting actress, right?

SPEAKER_00: 2:31:11

But I will say there's an element to weapons that is certainly still dealing in the fantasy space, you know, certainly with you know, witches and witchcraft, but it's also has this sort of more grounded drama happening, you know, with its mystery and trying to decipher the mystery, you know, where a quiet place has monsters, you know. So, you know, I know they're not it's not a bridge too far from each other, but I think there's something to the groundedness of weapons that makes it, I think, a little bit more easier for them to possibly consider as an actual wars contender.

SPEAKER_01: 2:31:48

I mean, I think that may be the case, but I'm not sure. I still don't know if I can separate weapons from the you know the quiet place, crazy rich Asians of it all, and say that there's enough there for them to take it seriously. I I don't know that that's there. Um but I think that as these contenders start falling by the wayside and you're running short on movies, that you're gonna go and put it on again and you're gonna go and revisit it, or you're finally gonna give it a chance.

SPEAKER_00: 2:32:19

Yeah, and also that it did so well that there's a chance you that's one movie you saw. Right. You saw that movie, right? Um, and so that that's already an asset.

SPEAKER_01: 2:32:28

Exactly. I mean, I do think it hurts. I think stuff like this always hurts. I think if Chloe Zhao does not get nominated, I'm I'm blaming the announcement that she's directing Buffy the Vampire Slayer. You save that until after your nomination, and the same thing where you know Zach uh uh Crack Krager's chances for weapons would be so much better if he had not announced that he's making Resident Evil on IMAX. Um or that you know uh yeah, Uncle Gladys is gonna get her own movie. Like no one's it it doesn't help when you say, and and we've started working on a quiet place part two. That I can tell you automatically hurts a quiet place part one. Right. They're bid. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 2:33:06

But certainly you heard it here first. Watch out for weapons. Yeah, it stands to make a bigger splash than we all think.

SPEAKER_01: 2:33:12

And certainly I think as you're plotting whatever your 10 for best picture is gonna be, which should come pretty close to who the PGA are gonna be. There's only nine spots left in the PGA because a weapons will have a spot there.

SPEAKER_04: 2:33:26

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 2:33:27

Um, okay. Well, I think that's everything for today's episode. We went through a lot, a lot. Um, a lot to catch up on. Got Springsteen coming up soon. Right. Uh Frankenstein's finally gonna be viewed by more people. We'll be watching Dynamite. We'll be watching a lot of films in the next few days. Got more screenings we're gonna try to get through. We have special screenings we're gonna attend. Yeah, and so um, yeah, uh, so until next time, I'm Joseph and I'm here with Jules. And um follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon. Visit our website, framesandflicker.com, new Oscar predictions, and Lee is on there. House of Dynamite takes a hit. Updated in all categories. All dated updated in all categories, House of Dynamite takes a hit, Mario Supreme is looking good. Um, are we all sleeping on Frankenstein? Okay, um, we'll catch up with you guys next time.

SPEAKER_00: 2:34:15

And it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP colon forward slash forward slash creative commons dot org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.

SPEAKER_01: 2:34:52

Disclaimer The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.