Oscar Season 2025-2026: Golden Globe Predictions for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER, HAMNET, MARTY SUPREME, SINNERS, FRANKENSTEIN, WICKED FOR GOOD, AVATAR FIRE AND ASH, JAY KELLY, THE SECRET AGENT, NO OTHER CHOICE, and more!!

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| Visit our website FramesAndFlicker.com for Oscar predictions |

On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• Gotham Film Awards shut out Rose Byrne and IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU, champion IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT
• ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER rolling to one Best Picture prize after another with NYFCC and NBR
• Early Supporting Actress winners splintered - WEAPONS, SINNERS, SENTIMENTAL VALUE
• Wunmi Mosaku vs. Teyana Taylor for Best Supporting Actress nomination?
• Independent Spirit Awards blaze a path for TRAIN DREAMS Oscar hopes
• Are the Critics Choice nominees anything more than glorified Oscar predictions?
• Golden Globe Predictions!!!
• Can WICKED FOR GOOD hold onto its Comedy or Musical slot?
• Netflix to double down in Comedy or Musical with JAY KELLY and WAKE UP DEAD MAN
• Can Lee Byung-hun make Golden Globe history with NO OTHER CHOICE? Pull upset over Timothée Chalamet and MARTY SUPREME?
• Wagner Moura makes THE SECRET AGENT the favorite for Actor Drama - can Dwayne Johnson, Jeremy Allen White or Michael B. Jordan stop him?
• Trouble brewing for Amanda Seyfried, Rose Byrne and Emma Stone - BUGONIA, TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE and IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU hunt Globe support and Oscar appeal
• Late-breakers RENTAL FAMILY, IS THIS THING ON and SONG SUNG BLUE look to shake up the race with audience appeal and Globe endorsement
• Will AVATAR three-peat with Golden Globe Best Picture and Director nominations?
• A HOUSE OF DYNAMITE looks to redeem Kathryn Bigelow with the Golden Globes
• Jacob Elordi and Sydney Sweeney hope to continues breakout Globes streak with nominations for FRANKENSTEIN and CHRISTY
• KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN conjuring up Bill Condon's Golden Globe magic for Tonatiuh, Jennifer Lopez and Diego Luna
• SENTIMENTAL VALUE and IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT look to flex international appeal with major Globe nominations

Chapters

• 1:51 ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER crowned Best Picture at the Gotham Film Awards, but Panahi rules with a sweep
• 24:18 Independent Spirit Awards boost TRAIN DREAMS, give IF I HAD LEGS I'D KICK YOU the boot
• 37:45 NYFCC champions the underdogs Wagner Moura, Rose Byrne, Benicio del Toro, Amy Madigan
• 1:01:55 National Board of Review snubs HAMNET, backs ONE BATTLE, still loves George Clooney
• 1:15:37 Are the Critics Choice Awards really just the Gold Derby Awards? A look at their problematic credibility
• 1:18:35 Early word: MARTY SUPREME among the best, AVATAR FIRE AND ASH more of the same
• 1:23:48 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Picture Comedy or Musical
• 1:31:44 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actor Comedy or Musical
• 1:37:14 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actress Comedy of Musical
• 1:42:26 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Picture Drama
• 1:47:21 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actor Drama
• 1:53:17 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Actress Drama
• 2:03:30 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Supporting Actress
• 2:12:21 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Supporting Actor
• 2:23:41 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Director
• 2:29:00 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Screenplay
• 2:31:31 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Score
• 2:33:52 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Original Song
• 2:36:06 Golden Globe Predictions - Best Animated Feature
• 2:40:14 Golden Globe Predictions - Best International Film

Transcript

SPEAKER_02: 0:14

Hey everyone, and welcome to a new episode of the Academy Anonymous podcast, where we're keeping track of all the news on the Oscar race, our first podcast for December. And December, of course, is going to be a very busy month in terms of um updates to campaigns and uh you know film trajectories on their way to hopefully getting an Oscar nomination next year. Um, as always, I'm your host, Joseph.

SPEAKER_00: 0:42

And I'm Jules. And before we start, just a reminder to uh please follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon and visit our website, framesandflicker.com. Both of those are listed on the cover art for reference. And um we have also been updating our predictions. We have brand new uh updates on our predictions on our website. Um, and throughout December, we're gonna be updating it more thoroughly. We'll also be adding the awards that these films are winning. And hopefully in the future, we'll have like a database of all the films that are winning these uh critic awards because we're as you said, it's a tsunami of critical awards that we're gonna get all through December and most of January, along with the major precursors. So all of that will also be updated on our website very soon.

SPEAKER_02: 1:27

Right. Um, so it's been a very busy closing week to November, opening week of December. We have a lot to talk about. Um, where do you want to start? I mean, obviously, I think the bulk of this episode is going to be about predicting the Golden Globes, which we still think is a very significant thing on the way to hopefully getting an Oscar nomination. Yeah. So we'll do that for the majority of the show, but maybe we should do a quick recap on some recent events. Where would you like to start?

SPEAKER_00: 1:54

Well, first we have the, I believe on Monday we had the Gotham Awards, and so we uh predicted them on our website and also on our Twitter. Um, and I think the winners are very interesting. And something that I like about the Gotham Awards in particular, actually, I like a lot of things, even though as we said in our last episode, they're getting a lot of flack for sort of you know, kind of moving away from highlighting and platforming independent films specifically.

SPEAKER_02: 2:20

Their nominees did, at least.

SPEAKER_00: 2:21

Exactly. Um, but I love that critics and I love that critics tend to pick the nominees in jury pools, and then I love that industry representatives pick the winners. That's right. What I find really interesting about the Gotham winners is that we get a nice tiny sample of what people in the actual film industry um think about some of these more risque movies. And so if you have a film that was heavily nominated by the critic pool, that ends up coming out of this ceremony, you know, uh very, you know, with with with little to to speak of in terms of wins, then I think that starts to indicate that it's not a film that maybe the industry at large, or at least you start to ponder that maybe it's not a film that the industry industry at large is going to be as receptive to. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 3:14

It starts to sort of illustrate the critic industry divide, right?

SPEAKER_00: 3:18

And I think that specif specifically happened with one very particular film that I think is fighting for its life to squeeze into uh one of the above-the-line categories, and that's if I had legs, I'd kick you. Had no legs on Monday night, had no legs to make it to a win, which was the second most nominated film of that ceremony and came out with Deadly Squatch, and the most nomin I will say also not just that, but it was heavily the most nominated independent film of the night.

SPEAKER_02: 3:47

Because one battle after another broke records for nominations, but it was also a major Warner Brothers film, major studio film from Hollywood, made for hundreds of millions of dollars. And and and if I had legs that kick you is not that. Had they banned one battle after another like they have done other years, and certainly if I had legs would have been the most nominated film of the night, right?

SPEAKER_00: 4:06

Exactly. And so I found it quite interesting or quite telling possibly that if you've seen the film, and I quite like the film, we saw the film at Sundance.

SPEAKER_02: 4:16

Not many that not many film, not many people saw the film in theaters. I know.

SPEAKER_00: 4:20

Exactly. Um, if if you've seen the film, I think you can really understand that it's not the kind of thing the academy tends to go for. You know, um, it has a lot of you know artistic flourishes and uh a perspective that I think they're not as comfortable nominating. It's got gerbil issues, also.

SPEAKER_02: 4:40

There are like gerbil issues with this film.

SPEAKER_00: 4:43

There's a moment there in the movie that there's something like that. You know, it has a lot of safty sort of energy, um, in a way that it's very chaotic, but it's also, you know, very uncompromising in its perspective and its uh uh technique and how it you know frames Rose Byrne's character, almost a film completely made of close-ups in a way. Um and it's a very effective film. It really puts you into the psyche of this woman, but it's gonna be a film that is not going to thrill audiences. And I think we saw that by its very poor box office performance. Right. And I think we saw that at the Gotham's, where you know, in these my you know, miniature jury pools of industry representatives, they didn't respond to it, not enough to give it a win at all.

SPEAKER_02: 5:25

So no wins at all for If I Had Legs I'd kick you, which we think is an amazing film, which we I think I would call it so far top three most uncompromising films I've seen this year. Yeah. Um, which is again, that's a compliment. Um, but it's vying for one award, strictly just one award, which is best actress, and for it to walk away with nothing hot on Gotham Night did not look very good.

SPEAKER_00: 5:51

Right. And so um a little bit more on that because Rose Byrne has been surfacing in this last week, and like I said, that's a nominee and a movie that's fighting for this one nomination. Will it happen? Will it not? It's very dicey. Um, but certainly I also found interesting, I just find it interesting in general, but also specifically these pools getting together and seeing these movies and the not these nominees and seeing what of those nominees impacted the most. I got the impression that the jury pools really went with what spoke to them the most, what touched them the most. Um, so for example, uh my father shadowed it incredibly well. It won the best lead performance as well as breakthrough director. And I even started to question why this film wasn't nominated uh for best film, because it sounds like it might have you mean at the gotham.

SPEAKER_02: 6:41

Well, at the Gotham's, they actually don't allow international films to compete. Oh, yeah. They have to have some sort of basis in terms of um American production or American financing behind it. So I'm pretty sure that makes sense.

SPEAKER_00: 6:52

Well, that makes sense, but had it been, I think it would have been, I would have spoken to that jury pool as well for best film. Um, so that that film did terrific and it hasn't even come out here yet. Um, we missed it at Cannes. Yeah, it did well though. It did really well, it did terrific as from Mubi as well, right? And Suleiman's story won Best Breakthrough Performer. We didn't get a chance to see that, but I've heard great things. That sort of sort of sort of has been in the ether for a while because I think it went to last year's case.

SPEAKER_02: 7:18

Yes, yes, it did. And I think Janice picked it up, but I think that was an overall theme of the night, which is Gotham nominations really split hairs in terms of is this a positive move or a negative move? Um, what kind of organization are they going to evolve into in the future? Um, their wins paint a very different picture. To me, the wins, whether it's the jury deciding, you know, a win for a film that was less controversial than if I had like said kick you, but also in the jury supporting films like Solomon's Story and My Father's Shadow, it's very clear that they want to keep celebrating films that let's be honest, I'm not sure how much traction either of those films are going to get from here on out. But they sound like great films, and I can't wait to see them.

SPEAKER_00: 8:00

Right. And I think that's an interesting point because for me, I felt like I don't know if it was, you know, done consciously or not, but it felt like the jury pools selecting the winners were very much trying to, as you were insinuating, trying to pick, you know, independent films, um, and and and platform those smaller films that not enough people have seen, not enough people know about, um, as opposed to going for, you know, the bigger, uh, the bigger movies in these lists. So it was very interesting to see one battle lose award after award after award. Yeah. You know, and I think it goes to that idea that I think these juries were interested in spotlighting independent films, small films, low budget films, uh, and give those films a platform. Right. Um, and saving the one battle win for the end, right? Where I won best film. Uh where I finally won an award. Right. Right. Exactly. PTA finally. So it just felt like they were okay giving the big award to one battle, but everything else felt like let's spotlight these smaller films. Right. Um, and I don't know if that was an act of resistance because of the sort of talk that's been in the ether because of Gotham and where it's headed.

SPEAKER_02: 9:11

And maybe again, those jury members saying, Am I really gonna give it to a Warner Brothers film? Am I really gonna give it to a film that was uh, you know, uh uh a nine-figure film? Am I really gonna do that?

SPEAKER_00: 9:20

So I don't know if it was intentional or not, but that's how it read to me. Right. And the ceremony itself had a very weird, uh, it was a very weird experience watching it because, on the one hand, you're seeing these films like Solomon's Story and Um It Was Just an Accident, and um My Father's Shadow doing really well, and then having these tributes for these questionable films that are you know of a higher budget and of a higher sort of platform, uh higher release strategy basically. Higher visibility. Higher visibility. So you had After the Hunt, which has done terrible with critics, and it's still getting an award here. Yeah, you had um Deliver Me From Nowhere, which again did very mediocre with critics and it's getting an award here. Songs and Blue is getting an award here. That whole aspect was just awkward. So it's awkward as hell, and I can't help but read. I mean, I can't help but read that those tributes are bought and brought to you by Songs and Blue coming out in the theaters as a summer. Right, they're bought by these bigger studios kind of wanting uh a piece of the pie and wanting a piece of the spotlight, and Gotham as a as a as a as a uh organization giving into that, and that sucks. Right. You know, that left a weird taste in I think most people's mouths, and also it was just a weird experience.

SPEAKER_02: 10:37

Yes, I I completely agree with you. Um, I think that was that was always there. I mean, to just to just add on to that just a little bit, I will say that something that I thought was important were just seeing what it was like when these tribute awards were on the stage. And so, for example, I thought Tessa Thompson gave a great speech, and I think HETA is certainly in the hunt, and I think it's speeches like that from Tessa Thompson that are going to maybe boost the profile of HETA, you know, deeper into award season. Um, I thought Adam Sandler stole the show. And I think if anyone was watching or if anyone in the industry was in the room, they're just gonna want Adam Sandler on stage as much as possible. Um, and again, I think that's a great boost to his um campaign. For example, I think Luca Guadagnino did not address the elephant in the room and talk about the costume designers. Um, and so I'm not sure on top of everything if Luca Guaragnino is gonna get much support from the costume designing guild anytime soon.

SPEAKER_00: 11:33

And for those who don't know, you know, we're referencing that over the last, I think last week or the weekend, he had some comments about the difference between fashion designers and costume designers, and somehow the fashion designers I think understand the art form of costume design better than costume designers do. And a lot of very reputable costume designers found issue with that.

SPEAKER_02: 11:53

We're outraged, including um Jenny Beaven um from Mad Max, but certainly even contenders from this year. I mean, Kate Hawley, who did the costumes on Frankenstein Frankenstein was um really upset. Um, and so I mean, I think that's a whole other issue that's gonna come back to bite him in the future. But I mean, jumping off that, I think Guillermo de Toro got on stage and it was very clear, you know, his film is a passion project, but it's very much also an illustration of fuck AI and films made by humans for humans, and I think that's an excellent um, you know, stance from which to campaign on right now. Right. Um, I also felt there was a lot of love for Jacob Balorty in the package from Netflix, so it's very clear that that's a priority for them, even though they're gonna have a Jacob Ballorty Adam Sandler problem at some point.

SPEAKER_01: 12:39

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 12:40

Um, you know, so I did think that some of those tributes were interesting. I thought Noah Bob might give a great speech. Um, I'll say that as well. Um he I think Jay Kelly may appeal uh very much so to the industry. Um, so there's that, and then I think one other thing that I would like to talk about is just it was a great night for Jafar Panahi. Oh yes, right? And so he won three awards for the film, right? And that's perfect, that's a sweep. He was up for three, he won the three. Yeah, but what I think is really important here is that as you said, industry juries. So three different industry juries made up of maybe five to six people each, so maybe that's anywhere from 15 to 18 people. They always favored his film, they always favored his uh style of filmmaking, and they always favored the narrative of Jafar Panahi getting an award, right? I think there was something that I read online about how Jafar Panahi is is gonna go back to Iran and and um possibly go to prison and and possibly, you know, um try to tackle the the issues that are are are surrounding him from his home country like head on. And that's just I think everyone in the industry is aware of that. I think voters are aware of that, and I think that's going to want to motivate them to get as many people as possible to watch the film because he's such an important artist and because it's such an important subject matter that touches not just Iran but just the entire globe right now. And so that that became very clear to me is that it's not just a sweep, but it's these juries are watching that film and it's resonating with them no matter what country they're from, and that they all want to champion that filmmaker because of what he stands for and what he's been through, right, and what he means for the industry and for the art form.

SPEAKER_00: 14:24

Right, but I think it can also be an indication that his film is that liked and his film is that is resonating to that degree. Certainly. That's that's that's exactly what I'm saying. After that sweep, I think people started thinking, oh, well, maybe we should put Jafar Panahi, you know, higher in our best director radar. But the truth is, you know, from the very beginning, if you've been following us, we've been very high on Jafar Panahi's narrative and his story is so uh important that he was always going to be a huge contender in this awards race as soon as he won the Palme d'Or. And I would say that some a night like the Gotham really kind of portrayed the possibility that if there's anybody who could possibly, and I don't think this is uh a realistic thing, but if there's anybody who could possibly steal a best director Oscar from Paul Thomas Anderson, it would be Jeff Harpinahi. Yeah, you know, or surprise uh screenplay win, it would be Jeff Harpinahi. Yeah. So, you know, that's that's an indication from these awards.

SPEAKER_02: 15:23

And I think some people have just just to sort of linger on this, if it was just an accident topic, just a beat longer. Some people have talked about it was just an accident of being well liked enough to factor into into film editing. Yeah, and I think there's a possibility there. Um I've seen the film, you haven't seen it yet, and I'm I'm sure you'll I'm sure you'll respond to it. Yeah, that's a very powerful film. I know that editing did not scream out to me. I think its positioning in the rest of the race could you know force that issue. But no one really talks about an area where we think the film is really rich, right? Um, no one really talks about it. Maybe they'll talk about it now, but the idea is you and I have always thought this was a great film to contend for best casting. Yes. That's where we think you can get an extra nomination here because the cast is magnificent, Jafar Panahi is was part of the process of finding those actors. Um, and so don't be surprised if there is a below the line category where it was just an accident can factor into it would be casting, you know. You heard it here first. We think that this is a a sleeper in the in that category.

SPEAKER_00: 16:28

100%. I completely agree. And um, I, you know, again, Jeff Harpanahi won best original screenplay. I loved seeing that Pillion won the best adapted screenplay. I'm very confused by what's happening with that movie. I'm guessing that A24 is pushing them for awards campaign, but the release won't be till Valentine's Day next year. I absolutely love the movie coming out of Cannes. Can't wait to see it again. And it's it reinforces to me, um, as someone who's seen it, that it's just such a crowd pleaser, right? Um and and and such a uh uh a crowd pleasing film that is just irresistible to a certain degree, that it was able to beat out so many uh contenders here, like no other choice and one battle and train dreams. Um in a juried pool, yeah. Right. And that somehow I think that if the campaign strategy was clearer and this felt like a horse that they were, you know, focusing more on, push pushing with more you know concentration, uh they would have a significant shot at getting into that screenplay category and possibly a few other categories. But I guess they have too many balls that they're juggling, and Marty Supreme is such a priority that I guess it's falling by the wayside. But it sort of feels, you know, um like a missed opportunity. Exactly.

SPEAKER_02: 17:45

Yeah, I I would say that as well. As far as I know, and I've done some digging around online. Um, I've asked a few people on Twitter and they've very gracious graciously responded, and and they've told us um that the plan from A24 is supposedly to campaign the film. Um, and so watch out for it to maybe factor into some of these bigger awards. Certainly BAFTA, you and I talked about a possibility of a globe nod, not out of the not out of the realm of possibility, but certainly it feels like A-24 is not focusing on the campaign, and it just feels like they A-24 has rich films. I think it's just become abundantly clear that they're not allowing themselves to get distracted from the mission. And the mission is Marty for as many nominations as possible, for as many wins as possible, for possibly the big win, and certainly for the big win for Timothy Chalamet.

SPEAKER_01: 18:36

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 18:36

And so they almost cannot allow themselves to push any other direct any other contender, even if it's marginally, because they cannot take their eyes off of making Marty an Oscar hit, a box office hit, a critical hit. Right. You know what I mean?

SPEAKER_00: 18:50

Right. And um, as we said, you know, uh Paul Thomas Anderson was able to win that that final big award that again was also jury, and so I guess the jury, the jury pool was also very unanimous in thinking that that was the best of the group, um, uh along with what seems it's gonna be most people. Yeah. Um uh but actually before we move on to the next thing, I do want to bring up one really interesting thing was that one of the surprises that one of the surprise wins that I was very impacted by because it it it it indicated a few things for me, was the win by Woon Mi Mosaku for the supporting performance for Sinners. Sinners was only nominated for supporting performance. She won it. Um, and there was a lot of competition here. What I find most interesting about Woon Mi winning is that you would think, number one, that maybe someone from One Battle would win this. Benicio Lotoro has been on a rip this last few days, possibly him, and the person that we thought was going to win, which was Tayana Taylor, for her very memorable first, you know, her very memorable uh part in One Battle, uh, which takes place, yes, mostly at the beginning of the film, but she comes back a little bit at the end as well.

SPEAKER_02: 20:00

She's also a previous nominee for a thousand and one.

SPEAKER_00: 20:02

Right, exactly. However, they went with Woon Me. And I think that's an interesting a very interesting choice, again, from uh a selected jury pool, because I think it shows that if Tayana was in the running to possibly win this award, that there were enough people in that jury who were maybe a little bit put off by the sort of complicated character that Tayana Taylor plays in one battle after another. Right. Um and I it just the thought came to me that maybe she was considered, but instead they chose to give the award to another black actor, an emerging artist, um, who was possibly playing a character that was more resonant, more resonant for them and uh resonated more deeply for them, and certainly that was more sympathetic uh for them. And I think that's a uh a big asset that uh uh an actor like Wumi Musako has, a contender like Wumi Musako has in this race.

SPEAKER_02: 21:03

Yeah, I think you're 100% right, and I think we may end up seeing that play out, you know, throughout the rest of the Oscar race. Um and they're kind of funny because they kind of complement each other. And so like if Tayana shows up in the beginning and she's controversial and problematic, and uh, you know, there's things you like about her, but there's also a lot of um instances where you understand that the character's probably transgressing something, and so it's difficult for you to immediately sympathize with it. It's very complicated. It's a complicated character, very complicatedly drawn. Um, there's also the sexual element to it that I'm sure is gonna turn off some voters, yeah. You know, the way that she sexualized, even if it becomes sort of a weapon of her. Yeah, it's a weapon she's weaponizing that she's weaponized that, but it's not necessarily gonna be the thing that all voters respond to. But then you have Woo Me, right? Who who was one of my favorites in the film, but also she comes back at the end of the film and has what I think is possibly the most emotionally rewarding moment in that in the film and that last scene. And if you when you see the film, you'll know what scene I'm talking about. Um, and she's also this like this character who's just you know morally and spiritually good, right? And also like forthright, yeah, and you know, um can sort of read a situation almost quicker than everyone else around her. Yeah, and so like it's it's a very empowering character. Um and so I think that that may be a dynamic that comes into play. What I think is what I think is also great is that I don't think that they eliminate each other. So I think that in the list of the Oscar five, there's room for both. But I wouldn't be surprised if there are gonna be some some people who who you know would rather vote for Tiana because of the complexities of the character and and what she's asked to do, which is a very demanding thing. She's kind of the lead for the first 20 minutes, yeah, versus Wound Me, right? Who has a great entrance, kind of disappears in the middle, but comes back in the end in the most emotional part, right? Um, so I think they're all gonna like I I think they compliment each other well, but I think we're gonna see this sort of quiet duel between what does a viewer prefer between those two dynamics.

SPEAKER_00: 23:10

Right. And I I use you use the word compliment, I would say in a way that almost antithetical, that if you had issues with Taonica Taylor's character in one battle and and how complexly she's drawn in that film, um, you're going to possibly uh like a lot more the woon mi Mosaku performance in Cinners, which in a way is sort of the opposite. Um uh or vice versa. If you're if the wooni musaku performance is something that you're a little less drawn to and you want a little bit more complexity in your character, um, you're gonna be more drawn to the Taylor Taylor performance.

SPEAKER_02: 23:46

I like that. Like Taylorna Taylor is the edgier of the performances, and WooMy is like the pure light. She's like the light in her movie. Yeah, absolutely. So I think that's gonna be a fascinating dynamic to observe all year long. Yeah. But it was a great, great win for Wumi. Oh, I was so happy. Um, I thought it was a great win. And and you had predicted something, I think, a day after that didn't come true, but sort of maybe started circling around that idea that I think Wooy's gonna have fans for her performance. Right. Right, right. Um, so is there anything else left to talk about in terms of uh Gotham?

SPEAKER_00: 24:14

Gotham? No, I think we're good with Gotham.

SPEAKER_02: 24:16

So how do I how about we jump to instead of going to what happened the day right after in New York, why don't we jump to what has just happened, which is we got nominees for the independent spirit awards because they're sort of sister organizations, right? The Gotham Film Awards recognizing independent films or independently minded films, and then you have the independent uh film awards, which has eligibility criteria, and so certainly one battle is not going to factor in here. But I also want to mention, you know, um there are certain independent films that were borderline, and so we we had written an article, and you can check that out at framesflicker.com. But you know, in the article, we had sort of alluded to the idea that Hamnet might have trouble qualifying here because it may be a little bit over the budget threshold. I think that might have also been a factor for something like Kiss of the Spider Woman. Yeah, right. I thought Tona 2 or Jennifer Lopez would make it in or Drago Luna, but again, the budget is teetering around the 30 range, might be a little bit more, and that might have been disqualifying. And so um, don't be surprised if some of these bigger films did not qualify. Obviously, A24, Marty Supreme, that budget is way too high to qualify.

SPEAKER_00: 25:23

Or the Smashing Machine.

SPEAKER_02: 25:24

Smashing Machine is way too high, right? Um, but some of these smaller independent films, you know, got their moment in the sun. And so, who are the nominees um who had a great day?

SPEAKER_00: 25:32

Um, I think Peter Hojar's day had a great day. Um, Ira Sachs is a brilliant filmmaker. We haven't seen this particular film. We missed it at Sundance. Uh, but uh a lot of people are fans of it. It played that at the New York Film Festival as well. That did really well. Sorry Baby did well as well. Um being nominated in the best feature category as opposed to the best for the best first feature, which is a big deal. Train Dreams did fantastic. Yeah, Train Dreams was and I think that you and I were on the money a few episodes ago when we were highlighting the nominees for the Gotham's, and we were saying that in this list there should be the favorite for the independent spirit award and the quote unquote, you know, the horse that the independent community is going to be pushing.

SPEAKER_02: 26:14

They're gonna rally around, right?

SPEAKER_00: 26:15

And that the only film that kind of made sense there was a film like Train Dreams, and lo and behold, here come the independent spirit award nominations, and it's does incredibly well. So I think that people are catching on to Train Dreams being that sort of independent film horse that the independent community is going to push into a best picture nomination. Um, and it's kind of interesting because it kind of completes the story that these filmmakers were unable to finish last year when they were trying to get a nominated for Sing Sing. When A24 screwed them, yeah. They were trying to get an I for Sing Sing and they did not get nominated, even though technically they still got three nominations, and a fourth nomination made a little bit more sense than two nominations for Nickel Boys.

SPEAKER_01: 26:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00: 26:55

Um, and so that I think that has a very realistic possibility of trans transpiring that this uh second Netflix film, apart from Frankenstein, makes it uh squeaks into Best Picture uh with a handful of nominations.

SPEAKER_02: 27:11

Yeah, I think the ghosts of Quadar and Bentley have unfinished business with the Oscars, and I think Train Dreams may be the film to finish that up. Um, so it was a great day for Netflix, Train Dreams. I think so. Train Dreams picture, director, actor for Joel Edgerton, which was great to see, cinematography. Um, I thought that was great. I mean, I also mentioned uh another highlight. It was just a great day for Joel Edgerton because his other movie, The Plague, which I had an opportunity to see at Cannes, and it's fantastic. And it's a horror film coming out on Christmas. It's a Christmas Christmas miracle, Christmas gift. If everyone wants to go check it out, The Plague was nominated for Best Picture, and here you go again. Another first film that was elevated from the first feature category into best film. Um that's the plague, Joe Edgerton's kind of supporting role in that.

SPEAKER_00: 27:56

Um Roadside didn't get Kiss of the Spider Woman in, possibly it got disqualified, but it still got their other horse, Twinless, in, which got nominated for best feature and also got an eye for best actor for Dylan O'Brien, who has a great performance in it. Um, so that was nice to see.

SPEAKER_02: 28:10

I think the screenplay also.

SPEAKER_00: 28:12

I I oh I'm not sure, but yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 28:14

But it was it was great to see because a lot of people were disappointed when Twinless got completely shut out at Gotham. Right. And so it was it's sometimes the organizations are great because they'll respond to each other. Right. And so I do think it's reactionary. You know, the idea that, well, if Twinless got completely snubbed there, let's prioritize championing it because it's a film we really liked. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 28:32

Um well, um, is there anything else? I find that I found it interesting that a movie that did really well at the Gotham's, as you were saying, did really poorly here, more or less, and that was if I had legs at kick you.

SPEAKER_02: 28:43

That's exactly what I was gonna go to next. Okay, so yeah, talk to us about that.

SPEAKER_00: 28:47

Well, I mean, it managed a uh director nomination, I believe, and an acting nomination. Is that it? Is that all that got?

SPEAKER_02: 28:54

I think that's about it. And so you're going from four, which isn't very much, at Gotham to two at the Independence Bear Awards. Four is a lot for Gotham. But it is a lot for Gotham. And it may not sound like a whole lot, it's just two nominations down, but they're very big nominations.

SPEAKER_00: 29:09

And also, this this uh historically, you know, this organization is very kind to A24 Films.

SPEAKER_02: 29:15

Yeah, and this year they basically decided I would rather nominate sorry baby in the feature category than if I have like said kick you.

SPEAKER_00: 29:22

And I think that's and I think that speaks a little bit to what we were saying at the Gotham's that when you're putting this movie into a wider audience or a selective audience that's going to be deciding some of these nominations, it's just not as uh as much of a slam dunk as some people think that it was.

SPEAKER_02: 29:39

I I mean, despite its own quality and its own ambitions, I do think that we're seeing like an extreme Achilles heel because the film, as what as beloved as it is by the nominating committee of Gotham's, was just not good enough to score a win. And this is almost like vice versa. At the Independent Spirit Awards, where a jury is doing the nomination, is doing the nomin the nominations, right? It was just not loved enough to get a nomination as as big as best picture. Right. Um, and so I mean it I it it also didn't factor into cinematography or editing. We had done an article predicting some of the nominees, and we had certainly listed it for um for picture and for actress. Um, I I thought maybe screenplay, but we thought maybe some of those tech work, but some of the work from the cinematographer, the editor were getting in as well, because it's top notch, also. But I think we're seeing the start of the issue of if I had like Zed Kick Hugh, because this is where it should be dominating. Yeah, you know what I mean? This is not the places where it should not be getting getting snuffed from a best picture nomination or missing out a win for Rose Byrne at the Gotham Film Awards. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 30:46

You know, uh Blue and Blue Sun Palace um also did really well. It got a first feature mentioned. I think I also got a screenplay mention, um, and I think even an acting mention, I believe. Um, and one of them days did pretty well as well. Uh that was a big hit. Yeah, Kiki Palmer. Yeah, over the spring with Kiki Palmer. Kiki Palmer, I think, gets her first nomination here in this group, I believe. That's great. Uh, we're big fans of Kiki Palmer over here.

SPEAKER_02: 31:11

Um Kirsten Dunst actually got her first nom for Roofman. Crazy as that sounds.

SPEAKER_00: 31:16

But Roofman in general had a low showing, except for I think that was it, Kirsten Dunst.

SPEAKER_02: 31:21

Yeah, overall, I I thought it would do better. Yeah, um, for example, like The Mastermind didn't do very well. We love Katie Rackard, but she didn't get in here. Um did really good.

SPEAKER_00: 31:30

Oh, Lurker did Lurker did uh pretty good. And I after after at least snap nabbing a best picture nomination at Gotham, I love Lurker, it's one of my favorite films of the year. And yeah, HETA, I we if you looked at our nominations, our predictions, uh, we were predicting HETA to have a pretty good day to get an eye for several things, um, and it only managed two acting nominations.

SPEAKER_02: 31:52

Yeah, I mean I mean it's still good, it's still good, but I will say it's disappointing. I think plan B has done better here. Um, so I I think it's certainly on the low end. I'm glad it's still got them, but I think that if they're gonna make a serious play for an Oscar, I mean the Nickel Boys, uh Nickel Boys was nominated here for Best Picture, yeah. Um American fiction um also nominated for Best Picture. Um, so I do think it's lagging a little bit behind. Hopefully, maybe they can pick that up a little bit with the other precursors. I mean, I do think it has um the quality to compete for other categories like cinematography and costumes and makeup and and all those other categories. So maybe that helps. But I do think I was expecting a Nia De Costa nomination for best director, the best feature, the best feature. I even thought it might have gotten shortlisted or mentioned for the Robert Alman Award. We mentioned that in the article because of the sort of the brilliant casting of Tessa Thompson and Ina Haas and the sort of gender reversal there. Um, but that didn't happen. I thought it was great to see The Long Walk pick up that nomination and that we had that as one of our um Dark Horses um for possibly that nomination. Um, but so yeah, it was a disappointing.

SPEAKER_00: 33:01

Probably one of the films that had the worst performance, um, which is surprising yet not very surprising, is the testament of Ann Lee. Oh, that was terrible, which only got a best editing nomination. Which we had called, by the way, on our article. But but it's I say nothing. I say not surprising because also the Bouddha list did very poorly here. And again, that's a head scratcher because you know it's one of the most uh it was notoriously spoken about for being shot for only$10 million. Um, everything that they achieved at the boot in the Buddha list, and it only got a best director mentioned last year, but this year it owned uh Mona Fastwald was only able to get an editing nomination. And if you see the film, again, we're big fans. I absolutely adore that film. Um it's it's so well done, top to bottom, that you would think it would do well in a body like this, certainly for Amanda Safe to get an acting nomination mentioned, certainly for cinematography, possibly for screenplay. Uh I mean, not screenplay, uh director, director and picture. Um, and I think that also has a lot to do with like it like if a head like that kick you, once you're putting this film in front of a bigger audience, I think they're going to be a little bit more polarized about it. You know, I think there are people who are going to watch this movie and not really be able to get on its wavelength and that that's gonna have a severe impact on its award uh potential, it's potential for nominations. You know, I know that we think a little bit differently, but I see that film right now, and everything that I'm seeing is indicating the same as a film that might just be a one-nomination thing for Amanda Sayfried at the Oscars. You know, and everywhere that you're seeing, you know, it's it's it's it's sort of underperforming.

SPEAKER_02: 34:38

Yeah, I agree with you.

SPEAKER_00: 34:39

But if you see the film, you understand why.

SPEAKER_02: 34:42

Yeah, sort of like in the same vein of HETA, this was a terrible day for uh Testament of Anne Lee, despite the kind of film that I really respected. I really liked a lot of it. Um I thought it should have factored in in multiple places here, especially considering you know how they treated the brutalist. But even then, I mean, one editing nomination for the Testament of An Lee is very far from at least a best director nomination for uh Brady Corbet. Um and so I think that's bad news, and I think it's going to speak to upcoming struggles, especially as more people watch the film. Um, so that's something to be aware of. Um, at the same time, I will say like Jackie, when it got picked up by Searchlight, uh Fox Searchlight back in 2016, it did get a nomination here for Best Feature.

SPEAKER_00: 35:21

Yeah, you know, and so Searchlight kind of knows how to maybe and that was a year again that they missed Best Picture at the Oscars, and it still nabbed three nominations uh at the Oscars, yeah. At the Oscars.

SPEAKER_02: 35:33

Um and as you were saying, yeah, here got listed for best film for Jack, um for for Jackie got listed for best film. Um, and so I do think that's that's worrying news if you're a search light again. And the the idea that you're getting closer and closer to being left off the best picture list is is becoming a reality.

SPEAKER_00: 35:51

Um something that I would like to mention is sort of also closer and closer to possibly being a low nomination or a zero nomination.

SPEAKER_02: 35:57

Or a zero nomination, certainly. Um, I think yeah, that's got to be worrying because it's not like your other two films are you know slam dunks for any other category too. So I guess that's the only thing that Search has going for it is can they get completely blank out of every single category in one year? I'm not sure that's ever happened. I'm not sure that I'm not sure that can't happen. Um, international film was interesting because Jafar Panahi did not get in. Right. Um and Park Chan Wuk did not get in. Um, and so I thought that was interesting. Sort of two of the more veteran established filmmakers did not make the short list. Again, very cool shortlist. All that's left of views there. That's a great movie. I thought it'd factor in bigger, but I'm glad to see it there.

SPEAKER_00: 36:32

Um becoming a gimme guinea fowl.

SPEAKER_02: 36:36

Secret Agent is the one that did well from sort of the neon favorites, right? Because I don't think sentimental value got in either. No, it did not. So, like a lot of the favorites, um, quote unquote, to get in for that Oscar and to be sort of favored enough as international films to factor into Best Picture actually did not make it in here, but the Secret Agent did. I will note that. Um, and Surrat did also. Yeah, so that's kind of that I thought that was an interesting choice.

SPEAKER_00: 37:00

Um, so yeah, I think um Yeah, but uh you know, this uh foreign film list especially doesn't correlate too well with the Academy, so it's attracts.

SPEAKER_02: 37:09

I I well I'd have to I'd have to do some more research to see not matching sort of foreign film to to the Oscars foreign film, but I do wonder you know how many foreign film foreign language as picture nominees at the Oscars don't have a footprint whatsoever at the Independent Spirit Awards. That makes sense because because it is sentimental value, no other choice, and it was just an accident. I don't think that builds well for all three of them getting into Best Picture, right? Maybe two of them can survive that, but certainly not all three. Right. And I do wonder about the two.

SPEAKER_00: 37:44

Right. And uh now let's move on to the New York Film Critics Circle, which is you know, if you know about these precursors, you know that the big three are the New York Film Critics Circle, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and the National Society Film Critics. We got our first of the big three here, and uh you and I were very comfortable predicting that one battle after another was going to win best film here, and I and that it's by and large going to be the favorite to win most of these precursors and these critic awards. So don't be surprised if you hear best film one battle after another a hundred times in the next two months. One after another. Um, so that one best film.

SPEAKER_02: 38:24

But also it was great to see because Paul has actually never won best film here, despite having a bunch of films that have you know been have placed here, and he's he's got a lot of his films have got a lot of accolades.

SPEAKER_00: 38:33

He's actually been nominated twice for writing, I believe.

SPEAKER_02: 38:35

Yes. Uh I think he Phantom Thread on Licorice Pizza and Burt Ronald's run for Boogie Knights. Um, but this is actually the first time that he's picking up Best Picture, which is which is great to see.

SPEAKER_00: 38:45

Right. And uh I thought that it would win that one battle would win Best Picture and Best Director, because I think he's never won Best Director. As did I, no, and he's still directorless. Yeah, uh it was still given to Jeff Arpanahi, for it was just an accident. We had Peggda's the runner op also. If you've been looking at our charts and our predictions from day one, we've been saying that Wagner Moore is going to be the critics' favorite. He's absolutely phenomenal in the secret agent. Expect him to win all three of the big awards, New York Film Critics, National Aside from Critics, and LAFCA. He needs it. Um, and I believe that he will, I mean, this is just a long-term projection, but we both feel very similarly that he will be nominated for the Golden Globe on Monday, and he will win that Golden Globe at the ceremony, and it will be very quick, it will very quickly become a race between Marty Supreme, Timothy Chalamet, and Wagner Mora for the Secret Agent. I know some people right now are high on Leo DiCaprio, possibly getting his second Oscar. I don't see that at all. It's uh for us, it's been very clear as soon as we started hearing the news about Marty Supreme that this was going to be a race between Wagner Mora and Timothy Chalamet.

SPEAKER_02: 39:47

It's sort of interesting because you had predicted correctly the New York win for Wagner, and I and I didn't because there I picked two other really quality performances that did well, I think, with the New York crowd. But I will say that like if Anything's gonna get in the way of Wagner Mora getting the three critical courts that he needs, it's the fact that Lee Byeungun is in a film that's as popular and his film his performance is as accomplished. And so I do wonder if we're gonna see, you know, an organization like the National Art of Film Critics maybe side with someone who isn't Wagner, um, or LA side with someone who isn't Wagner. I doubt it. I don't know because I do feel that Lee Byeungun is amazing in that film and he carries so much of it. Um, and that it would be an easy way to reward no other choice without having to give it a best picture nomination. And so I actually think that's fascinating. The fact that every single best actor contender is miles away from Timothy Chalamet. And I say that sight unseen, I haven't seen it, but I know his trajectory, right? There's no way that they can compete with him. The performance you're saying can come close is to Wagner Mora, right? But we know that Wagner Mora is not going to be, you know, the performance of the film that the general movie going public is going to be most aware of. But I would argue that Lee Dungen is in the same exact position that if this film wasn't being handled by Neon, and if Sony Picture Classics was handling it instead and they prioritized it, they would be giving Wagner Mora a run for his money in terms of having that second spot to Timothy Chalamet and being the one to give him, you know, a run for the a run for his money. Um, but because it is from Neon, it does feel like Neon is focusing more on Wagner Mora. But I I know that from you and I's conversation, we feel pretty confident about four um nominees, eventual nominees for best actor, and that includes Timothy, and that includes Wagner Mora. And we kind of say there's an open fifth spot, and it all depends on who has the edge. And I feel like you and I would agree that the best performance of the actors who are in contention there is probably Lee Byeong-un's, and that if enough people see it, it would be Lee Byeong-un who had that fifth nomination. Um, and that it's not as problematic a movie um for critics or for the movie going public as other films like Springsteen or Begonia or Jay Kelly. Um, and so I do think that there's an interesting narrative that could eventually arise if if critics support Lee Byeong-un um passionately.

SPEAKER_00: 42:19

You know, I I hear what you're saying, but I I think I disagree a little bit personally. I think that I feel like the enthusiasm for No Other Choice uh while it's there, I think it's not comparing as well, just just intuitively, um, to the kind of enthusiasm that a film like No Other Choice um had when it was uh being campaigned in 2022. Um you mean decision to leave. Uh I'm sorry, decision to leave, yes, in 2022. Um, and so I guess I'm just not seeing that level of you know enthusiastic fervor um that I that I experienced when we in 2022 with decision to leave. And so I think part of that is because decision to leave very early on uh was crowned, you know, with uh an award at Can. Um and that's that's sort of the same train that um secret agent is riding, you know, post can having two wins and best actor and I believe best director. It sort of has that standing as being this, you know, critical favorite that I think no other choice being blanked at Venice wasn't able to attain to attain. Um, and so I I I do feel that the majority of critics are going to side with uh the secret agent as being there between the two, which one they prefer, certainly as a performance uh for Wagner Mora. Um, and so I I have very little doubt, maybe I'll be proven wrong, as you're saying, uh, that he'll win all three. Um and if it were my personal choice, I mean, I am absolutely I would nominate Wagner Mora. He might even be my winner. Um, and uh Lee Bion yun uh would certainly be in contention. He's one of the best performances of the year as well. But I love Jesse Plemens and you know, Jesse Plemens and Bugonia, even though that has very little chance of happening, it's my probably my second favorite performance uh by a by by uh by a lead by a male actor in this year. So I'm just not sure that Lee Bion yun is the biggest compet competitor for Wagner Mora and that film. Uh, but we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_01: 44:33

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 44:35

Um, and so Rose Byrne won best actress. And so uh very early on you called this, you know, uh after seeing it at Sundance and in the summer, I believe. Right. And that this was gonna be a film uh that critics were gonna champion for best actress for Rose Byrne. I think there's a very good chance that she does win all three as well. Um she needs it, yeah. Um, even though I do believe that she'll get the Golden Globe as well. We'll see. She needs that too. Um, and so I think there's going to be, you know, uh this these uh prestigious critics are going to push this issue that Rose Byrne deserves to be nominated for this performance. And if a hat like that'd kick you. And so it's not a surprise to see her uh win here. I think it was a surprise to see her win, and we'll talk about it in a minute, uh the NBR. And I think it just adds to this idea that these awards bodies are really going to try to push for this to happen. And actually, that's a big asset for her, you know, uh being a critic's darling. Uh, because if she gets blanked in any of these major precursors, she has that to go for, to go with. Even though, as we saw just last year, Marion Jean-Baptiste couldn't muster that or transform that into a nomination. Um, best actor, best supporting actor, Benicio de Toro for one battle after another. I can't tell you how happy I am for that win. Benicio del Toro was my favorite performance in one battle. I think he's absolutely magnificent. I think it's your favorite performance as well. To see him having the award run he's having so far just makes me so happy. And I know now people are possibly thinking, oh, so yeah, now Benicio de Toro is a lock for a nomination. But you and I, very as soon as we saw the movie, we knew, listen, Benicio de Toro is going to get an eye for this. He's that good, he's that phenomenal, he's that memorable, he's that poignant. Um, and we rushed to put him in our gold derby five when no one was predicting him. And then, you know, a couple months later, he's already in the top four or top three.

SPEAKER_01: 46:28

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 46:29

But really, you know, from the very beginning, we knew this was going to be a performance that was going to stand out. I'm surprised that the critics kind of agree with us, and he's being spotlighted more than Sean Penn is.

SPEAKER_02: 46:40

Well, I I I'm not surprised in the sense that New York film critics, they actually gave the awards to William Hurt one year, remember, for History of Violence, where he eventually got nominated for that performance. He's wonderful in that. Um, but just that sort of idea that because it's a little bit less showy, because that it's uh it's a little shorter in length, I knew that New York could be passionate about it. You correctly uh predicted it as sort of your spoiler, your runner-up here at the new in your prediction for New York film critics. So I'm not surprised. But again, I am surprised that I believe he won the NBR as well. Yes, right. So I am surprised that it's starting to catch on that just the character has resonated culturally um um with so many people at this point, so many people who love movies. Um, so I do I do wonder there's again an extension to this conversation where if Benicio del Toro continues to steamroll in supporting actor and he solidifies his nomination, is the unlikable Sean Penn character in trouble that may become a talking point the further we go, right? So I I would keep an eye on that.

SPEAKER_00: 47:47

We've talked about that, and and you know, certainly you're right, we'll see what happens. But I think that I've even toyed with the idea that he's gonna miss the sag, that he's gonna get a sag snub um when those nominations come out, and the Benisio will be the one representing the film in that category. But we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_02: 48:03

Yeah, we'll see what happens. But I think it's it's been a nice uh turn to see. Um, and well, supporting actress actually went to um the the the I think my runner-up performance, which was Amy Madigan. You had thought maybe Wound Me here. Yeah, um, we both thought that Teyana must have been the favorite, but again, Teyana misses, and this is one awards body where you think yeah they're gonna appreciate a more uh a uh complex complicated character, a complexly drawn character. That was not the case, but they did go with what we had suspected, which is maybe a more populist movie. And you had said wound me, I had said Amy Madigan, they went with Amy Madigan, right? Which is a great, great news, right?

SPEAKER_00: 48:41

I think it's fascinating. You know, if you looked on social media, people were, you know, ripping their hair out, you know, uh feeling, you know, like how the hell, this is crazy, you know, this momentum, can she sustain it? And you and I were very early on saying, you know, folks, this is a real thing. Amy Madigan has a lot going for her. Possibly the biggest thing she has going against her is yes, it's not the kind of film that gets an eye for Oscars, right? And it's not the kind of performance that gets nominated either. But besides that, she has everything else. We wrote a tweet on it. Yeah, right. She has everything else. Uh, she's at this supporting actress category, welcomes uh, you know, veterans of a certain age. She's right in that age, uh, you know, at 75 years old, having this sort of mini renaissance in a way, with this iconic, you know, Gladys character that everyone that pop culture made a thing and and became a thing for most people in the in the Cinephile community. Um, it's also there's a transformative aspect to it. And, you know, uh actors who undergo transformations tend to do well in nominations if their film is well received. This film was incredibly well received, we well received by critics, incredibly well received at the box office, so much so that you know, given the competition we have this year, it's even in the running to get a best picture nomination, which is insane to say.

SPEAKER_01: 49:59

Yeah.

SPEAKER_00: 49:59

Um, it's a film that can easily get uh a nomination in, for example, uh screenplay, uh, because I think it's the kind of uh film that some writers might be attracted to, and the sort of ingenuity of the script and the story and and the hit that it was. And so she wouldn't she wouldn't be by herself if she did get nominated. Um, and so there's a lot of this category needs a veteran, and a lot of these other uh veterans, quote unquote, people that have been been there before uh have previous nominations, like Ariana Grande just last year, and Emily Blunt in a film that's uh underperformed at the box office and Glenn Close in a franchise that doesn't really get recognized for acting. You're just not giving me enough contenders here that are persuasive or compelling enough, but she is compelling enough. Right. You know, at 75 years old, she's a character actor, she's built a long filmography. Her last nomination was in the 80s, and so there's just so many stars aligning for her to happen. Um, that these wins just sort of cement that understanding, correct?

SPEAKER_02: 51:06

Yeah, I think that they're you know really lighting up what her trajectory is, and it's looking good so far. Um, again, if it's if this is playing well for critics, I can only imagine this playing better for industry members who are gonna, you know, champion an original box office hit.

SPEAKER_00: 51:23

Um and not only that, this film is going to do, I mean, we believe that it will do well at the guilds.

SPEAKER_02: 51:27

That's what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_00: 51:28

Yeah, exactly. It will do well at the PGA, it will get nominated at the WGA. And so we're now we're talking about a film that again has critical acclaim. Uh it was a box office hit that is doing well within, you know, industry circles and this category that needs a veteran, and this, you know, uh very popular uh uh character that was created for her, um, and that she helped breathe life into. It just feels like and her competition for that veteran spot, it just feels like everything is uh right here for the taking.

SPEAKER_02: 52:02

I think that's fascinating. And I want to return to this point, but let me just let me finish recapping some of the things we saw happen, which is um animated feature, you correctly predicted K-pop demon hunters. I thought that was a little too mainstream, obviously not. People online on social media did mention that if it's winning here, how can it lose? And I think that's an excellent argument at this stage. Um, cinematography went to Sinners for Autumn Uh Dural Darkpaw, and that was who you had predicted as a spoiler. You thought Resurrection, I thought Resurrection also. We think that's awesome. Yeah, we also think it's the front runner for the Oscar as well. Obviously, I mean I do agree. I I would agree with that. Um, but again, it's a mainstream film winning here, so you got that spoiler right. Um, nonfiction film, My Undesirable Friends, I had called that as a spoiler. Um, it's great to see it win here. It had won on Gotham the night before, so it's picking up a sizable amount of support so far. Um, international film went to the secret agent, which was, I believe, um that and one battle were the only films to win multiple awards. And so I do think it's significant that the secret agent won here over um Jafar Panahi's. I think there was some idea that as voting was going on, let's not give Jafar Panahi the win here so that maybe we can reserve it was just an accident for a bigger reward. That might have been the case, but I think it's a solid win for the secret agent here, and it's gonna need it to compete with the other neon titles. First film went to Ephis. Um, we both love that film. Um, I had said as a spoiler, um, but obviously it beat out um maybe bigger favorites like sorry, baby, as you had said, familiar touch. Um, but then the reason why I just want to quickly recap that is because I want to go back to the acting awards because we had four pretty solid winners who are in the thick of the race. Um, but what if I told you that maybe one of them at least has to be on the chopping block? The reality is New York film critics is averaging about two winners um right now getting an Oscar nomination. It's they have gotten three in the past, they've gotten only one in the past. But when you look at all four performances getting in, it's kind of interesting because the last time that happened was in 2016 with Casey Affleck for Manchester by the Sea. Um you had Michelle Williams for Manchester by the Sea. Uh, you had um Herschel Ali, one for Moonlight, one for Moonlight, um, and Isabel Who Parent, one for uh for Allen Things to Come in. Right, but it's also interesting that two of them would be nominated for the same film. So it's four performances, three films, right? So the last time you're gonna find a year where the New York film critics gave it to four performances from four different films, and all of them ended up being nominated for an Oscar is all the way back to 2007, and that's Day Lewis for There Will Be Blood, Amy Ryan Supporting Actress for Gone Baby Gone, Javier Bardem for In A Country for All Men, and Julie Christie for Away from Her. And so that's almost 20 years. So the odds are not great that all four of these will get in. It's obviously not impossible because it happened in 2007, and it even happened the year I before in 2006, but it has been a while, right? So my question is to you who do you think is on the chopping block here if at least one of them has to miss? Right.

SPEAKER_00: 55:20

In my opinion, there's only two options because I really feel like Benito Del Toro and Wagner Mora will not miss, um, just on the strength of their uh campaigning and their films. Um and so it's really between Rose Byrne for if I had like Zed Kick You and Amy Madigan for weapons, which on paper are the riskier movies um because they're not things they tend to nominate. Um, so I think uh at least one or both are possibly on the chopping block. However, I will say that based on some of the things that we've been saying in this episode, I think in a way Rose Byrne is a little bit behind because some of these other organizations chose uh not to give her an award that might, again, as we were saying, be representative of uh what these uh industry representatives think of the film when they see it. Um, whereas I think Amy Madigan being able to place in a place like NYFCC is probably more indicative that, you know, uh these cinephile circles are taking this performance and this actress seriously.

SPEAKER_02: 56:27

Right. I think that's an excellent point, you know, in defense of Amy Madigan's win for weapons. And again, that's if we're saying that only one gets cut off, but realistically there could be more than one. Mm-hmm. Is that historically, from what I can tell from recent history, horror at the Oscars that has done well is not horror that has done well at the New York film critic circle. So Get Out did not win at the New York Film Critic Circle. Daniel Kaluya didn't win, and he got an Oscar nomination. Demi Moore last year for the substance, the substance was not nominated at the New York Film Critic Circle. Black Swan, Natalie Poorman didn't win, didn't win one of the big awards. I think it won cinematography, but horror like they tend to not overlap. So the horror that has done well there, for example, I think recently of Lupid and Yango, yeah, for us, didn't happen. It didn't get nominated for an Oscar.

SPEAKER_03: 57:26

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 57:27

And so I will say that that's sort of an interesting dichotomy here, which is a lot of the horror successive that have successes that have crossed the line at the Oscars, they've kind of been left out at the New York film critic circle. That has that was not the case with weapons. Is that maybe a foreshadowing for disappointing news, you know, at next year? For Amy Matter.

SPEAKER_00: 57:49

And I think that's a good point, but I'll also bring up that I tried to look over the last 10 years how often the the quartet that's picked by the NYFCC, how many winners they tend to have in the group. Interesting. And I went back the 10 years and I believe, you know, correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe there was a couple years where I think none of the quartet were winners at all. Um obviously maybe some of those weren't even nominated. But by and large, they tend to have one to two winners in that quartet. Um, and so even the year that you were mentioning of uh 2016, they had two winners there. Um and so I think that's something that's making me a little bit feel more positive about I mean Mad again, because if we're looking at the winners here, which of these four could be winners? Because I feel that Timothy Chalamet, as you were saying, is unstoppable for Marty Supreme, if we're talking, you know, 89 Metacritic reviews and a film that might even get 10 nominations and a third not a third nomination um at age 30 for lead, the stars are just you know way too aligned for him to miss, um, and especially with his competition. If we take that into account, Rose Byrne cannot win for if a head like Zatic you at the Academy Awards, it just won't happen. Um, Benicio Latoro, I think, doesn't stand a great chance to win because he already has an Oscar. And if his main competition is Stan Skarsgard, who doesn't have an Oscar at I believe um 79, 78 years old, um uh I think you know the industry by and large is going to be happy to award him with a win finally in his first nomination, which is crazy. Um, that the only person here who can win is really Amy Madigan. Right. You know, there's really nobody else. And so if you look at it that way, you start to feel a little bit better about Amy Madigan. Yeah. Um, because we do believe that supporting actress, again, if Amy it's like you've said in the past, Amy Madigan's biggest hurdle is going to be can she get nominated?

SPEAKER_02: 59:45

We'd always divide this into due process. There's phase one, getting the nomination, and phase two, winning the actual award, right?

SPEAKER_00: 59:51

And they're two completely different animals. Right. If she manages to get the nomination, then she's a huge contender because of her. Her competition, you know, if her competition ends up being her and let's say Tana Taylor, we've already highlighted some reasons why Tana is vulnerable. You know, and some of the other people who could possibly contend against her, like Wun Mi Musaku.

SPEAKER_02: 1:00:12

She'll always have veteranship.

SPEAKER_00: 1:00:13

Yeah, Inga, um uh or you know, Regina Haw possibly, Fanny, one of Petro, you know, she really has, I think, the edge in that competition. So her biggest hurdle will actually be getting there. Getting nominated. Yeah. Once she's nominated, I think it'll be much easier for her to win. She can cruise.

SPEAKER_02: 1:00:32

Yeah. I I I understand that that idea. And I think that's an interesting point that you brought up about, you know, how many, how much, how many winners they're averaging. Um, because I certainly think that you're right. There's a lot of these New York winners from this year that's going to be very impossible, very difficult for them to pull off an upset. Right. Um, I do think that of the two, Sean Penn and Benicio, I I would think they would rather see a Benisha win for supporting actor. You know, strictly speaking, between the two won battle supporting actors. But it just hurts that he already has an offset. But he already has one. So I'm not sure they're rushing to give him a second, especially when Stanis Garsgard doesn't have one yet. Um, so I I I think you're right that on paper, the performance that looks like it's most ready to win is probably Amy Madigans.

SPEAKER_00: 1:01:10

And if you look at it that way, the performance that's most vulnerable is Rose Byrne, who again, we've already seen some micro examples of these groups uh being a little bit possibly turned off by it.

SPEAKER_02: 1:01:22

And not just that, because I would I would make the argument that like Wagner Mora, it doesn't seem like it's in the cards for him to win, but it certainly seems like it's in the cards for him to be the toughest one to beat. Yeah, yeah. I'm not sure Rose Byrne would ever be the toughest one to beat. Yeah, um, and that's despite, again, a brilliant performance that's gonna turn off a lot of people and an actor who has worked with almost everyone. Yeah, right. I think that's gonna that's gonna be her biggest asset, is that she's well known, she's well liked, she can do everything in any capacity. Um, and that's what she really has going for her. Right. Right. The question is, is that gonna be enough?

SPEAKER_01: 1:01:54

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:01:55

You know? Um, so let's jump now to um the winners at the National Board of Review. Let's quickly go over those. And um, so what what do we see?

SPEAKER_00: 1:02:04

Uh again, not a surprise here. Uh, one battle winning best film. Again, we've expect one battle to really mop the floor here and win most of these best picture prizes, if not all of them. Um, watch it become the first first film to win every single precursor. Um, uh Best Director, PTA, who I I believe, I don't know if he's won before here or now if this no, he has not.

SPEAKER_02: 1:02:25

Actually, he has never won Best Director. I think um he's won screenplay.

SPEAKER_00: 1:02:30

Right. Leo DiCaprio gets his first win for one battle after another. Uh Rose Byrne gets her second win. Um, I thought that was surprising, even though this group is very fond, let's say, quote unquote, of A24. They tend to do really well here. Um, still seeing her as their winner was interesting because I I see it as such a critic's darling for these major, you know, top critics.

SPEAKER_02: 1:02:52

But and also very few winners actually, you know, win an award, an acting award at the National Board of Review without being mentioned in the Best Picture section in the top 10 section.

SPEAKER_00: 1:03:01

Right. And uh Supporting Actor was Benicio with another win. He's been, you know, just uh doing incredibly well. Um, and Inga, um, Lillias won for Sentimental Valley for supporting actress.

SPEAKER_02: 1:03:14

A bit of a surprise.

SPEAKER_00: 1:03:15

Um, was a surprise they tend to have a little bit of you know, uh they tend to have some surprising winners here. Supporting actress is a category that tends to be surprising. Last year, interestingly enough, Al Fanning won this for a complete unknown and was snubbed. And that brings us to a larger point. We love doing this when we see these um critics groups that people talk a lot about. Is okay, how well do they do with their you know, Oscar statistics? And actually, this is a group that doesn't do that well. Um, last year, I think they only got one person, one actor in, or did they get zero?

SPEAKER_02: 1:03:46

Um, I know they had one, I believe.

SPEAKER_00: 1:03:49

Right. Um, I believe they had uh Daniel Craig for Queer, Al Fanny for Complete Unknown, Nicole Kidman for Baby Girl, and Kieran Culken and Kieran Culkin. Uh so three of them were snubbed. Um that I think is something to think about here because uh if we're looking at here, if we're looking at this list, again, take out take out of those statistics, Leo DiCaprio and Benicious Lautoro, you're left with possibly Rose Byrne or Inga Lilius, uh, possibly both getting snubbed or one getting snubbed at the end of the day at the Oscars. I will say that you and I have feel a very particular way about the supporting actress race and these uh double nominations, you know, a film getting two mentions in this category. Right. So I think most pundits think that that's going to be sentimental value, that they'll be able to get L and Inga in that into that category. And you and I feel a little bit more positive. We've we we we feel very strongly that the film that will get two supporting actress mentions will be one battle. Yeah. And it'll get Regina Hall and Tayana Taylor in. I I think it's interesting to know. And all I'm trying to say with that is that you know, seeing these this quartet, Inga automatically uh catches my eye as as the as the one that would get snobbed.

SPEAKER_02: 1:05:02

Here's what's interesting, and I'm gonna sort of build on what you just said, which is um most of the acting winners come from best picture movies, and obviously one battle can end up here, as you said, it's one picture director, two actings. Um, but so if I had like Zed Kick, you did not make it into the top 10 films of the year, and neither did Sentimental Value, and they usually err on the side of not putting international films there. I don't know if it's not allowed, but it certainly doesn't happen very often. Um, something like Parasite wasn't even listed there. But how fascinating is it that they gave it to Inga when they gave it to L last year? Yeah, so could they even give it to L this year? Right, right. It's sort of like maybe what if their favorite performance was L, but they sort of said we can't give it to her twice twice in a row. Right. And so I said, I we'll we'll give it to Inga. Right. Um, so I do think that that's kind of interesting. Yeah, um, if Inga will walk that same trajectory of being snubbed like Al Fanning, but I do think it's Al Fanning that's time gets in. And yeah, exactly. So I exactly because Al Fanning last year won for Complete Unknown and her actually her co-star got it. Right, right. Um, so that was interesting. Um another fascinating thing here is what do you make of the win for train dreams talking about last year? Because now these guys win again because they won for Sing Sing.

SPEAKER_00: 1:06:15

For screenplay. Yeah. So what do you what do you what are you making of that? I think that again, it just shows the strength uh that Train Dreams has and the legs that it has, and that it's uh going to be a film that's going to be it's it's it has the perfect scenario because it has gonna be appealing to these uh critics groups and it's also gonna be appealing uh to uh these industry representatives. So it's exactly where you want to be.

SPEAKER_02: 1:06:40

So you think you know, if the NBR has maybe no issue saying I'm giving it to the same group of writers again, that maybe again that's gonna be a larger pattern within the academy. Um, and maybe even go so far again as to finally getting them the best picture nomination.

SPEAKER_00: 1:06:55

100%. I expect I uh you know the AFI is coming out soon, and I have a strong feeling that it will get nominated at the AFI as well.

SPEAKER_02: 1:07:01

Right. Okay, and so what else did we see?

SPEAKER_00: 1:07:03

Uh Chase Infinity for one battle won the breakthrough performance. That was an easy one to predict. Um, directorial debut went to have a victor for sorry baby. Another solid win. Um, but also not so difficult to see. I thought we thought that Sinners would do well here that might even possibly win best picture. I thought Sinners was the winner, yeah. Yeah, because they tend to try to go against the grain sometimes with their best picture winner, you know.

SPEAKER_02: 1:07:26

We'll talk about the top 10 because you were right on the money about something. But we had thought maybe Sinners for the win because Fruit Vale Station was a top 10 film, Creed was a top 10 film, Black Panther was a top 10 film, and we thought this is gonna be one of the few groups to say, I'm not gonna give it to one battle after another, I'll go ahead and give it to Sinners. That didn't happen, one battle won. Um, but what what else did you see? And then we'll recap at the very end the top 10 because I think you said something that was really important.

SPEAKER_00: 1:07:51

Right. Um, and best anime feature went to Arco, Best International film went to it was just an accident, documentary went to cover up, Lord Partras's documentary, cinematography again went to Sinners. Uh, we believe that that is by and large the forerunner for the Oscar. Uh Stunt Artistry went to Mission Impossible. You got that one right. Yeah. Um, the Freedom of Expression Award went to put your soul on your hand and walk. Um, and so the top ten films at the NBR. Listen, the NBR hasn't had a great trajectory with the Academy Awards. Um, in their good days, they tend to match around seven. Last time, I think they got like three or two. Uh, I mean, last year, I believe. I don't know, I'd have to check. Um, but try to count on five to seven nominees correlating with the best picture. This group doesn't predict the top ten very well.

SPEAKER_02: 1:08:43

Um, and this is ten plus one, so they have a ten. Yeah, yeah. So it's like eleven total.

SPEAKER_00: 1:08:48

Yeah. Um, I will say that looking at the list, it feels to me like it's a five-year at most, where they get five movies correct um that correlate with the Oscars. There's a lot, I don't know, you know, I hope I don't sound disrespectful, quote unquote, you know, fat here, you know, things that I think I could easily see the Academy not embracing for Best Picture. You know, when I have a list that includes Avatar, F1, J. Kelly, Rental Family, Wake Up Dead Man, and Wicked for Good, those are all films that I think can easily miss Best Picture. Um, so we're really only talking about um uh Frankenstein, Mars Supreme, Sinners, and One Battle being the uh sort of uh films most likely to correlate.

SPEAKER_02: 1:09:32

Right. I mean, so in our predictions, you had made sort of the predic the brilliant call of saying they're not gonna award Hamnet. Right. And you're right, they did not award Hamlet. Right. Um and so I thought that was really fascinating that it did end up happening. We kind of felt that Begonia was gonna have a tough time here because they're not historically great Yorgles people, right?

SPEAKER_00: 1:09:51

Um But I'll also say something else that happened here that we talked about was that uh sequels tend to do a little bit uh worse uh the second time around than the first time. I believe we saw that with Dune part one and part two, where part one I think was mentioned for a couple things and part two was just got film. Last year, this critics group went crazy for Wicked. That's right. It won Best Film, it won Best Director, uh Ariana Grande and Cynthia Rival got a spotlight award. This year it only got best picture. That's right. And so I think it's emblematic of this. Uh we've been talking and we talked about in our last episode this the step down that this film has had.

SPEAKER_02: 1:10:26

Yeah, it's sort of interesting though, because it's still like Dune 2, not enough of a step down for them to completely ignore it ignore it or get it off the list. It's still there. Um they're knives out fans. Glass Onion was here, Knives Out was here. I kind of pitched to you, and we had maybe as a spoil in our predictions, they love George Clooney, and George Clooney made it in here with Jay with Jay Kelly, so that's not a surprise. They love Bradley Cooper, and this wasn't a spot where is this thing on should have made it. It did not, and instead they chose the other search life film, Rental Family. Exactly. And I think that that's you know, um, sort of warring to see if you're if you're you know if you're a fan of is this thing on. Um and so I think you sort of created a separation between movies on this list, and so on one end you have one battle after another, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Sinners, and Train Dreams, which is getting a nice surge here, right? Those are the five. Um and then you separated that between the other films that you know maybe are a little bit further behind. And if if you kind of look at it, they're all films that if you know they have mixed response, a significant amount of them. Um, and maybe you're gonna have trouble factoring in into other places. So you have Avatar, you have F1, you have J. Kelly, you have Rental Family, Wake Up Dead Man, and Wicked. And so my question to you is what if this was one of those years where we're gonna see five to seven? You have the five that you're comfortable with, but bring me bring two movies from that the from the fattier section that you think if they get the right push, it can maybe make it dentier.

SPEAKER_00: 1:12:05

It's it's a very interesting question. It's you know, I don't think we have great options, uh, not in terms of what I personally think about the movies, but you know, just you know, me seeing their long game Oscar Bros books. I would have to say that if I had to pick two more, I would probably end up picking F1 with a strong Apple campaign and it being their highest grossing movie ever. Um, and Avatar with the respect for the for James Cameron and his pioneering uh franchise.

SPEAKER_02: 1:12:35

Right. I mean, I think those are two excellent choices. Um, I think it does kind of call my attention that Avatar could potentially be a visual effects winner and they like to have the winners there. Um, I certainly agree that you have to watch out for F1 here. Top Gun Maverick won this award for Best Picture, so this could be sort of um an outlier that they just like this brand of filmmaking. You have to be very careful as the precursors go on how often we're gonna see F1. F1 to me, again, is another film like weapons where this should be all over the place when it comes to guilt to guilt time, right?

SPEAKER_01: 1:13:10

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:13:10

Um, so that's something to keep an eye on. I think um the case for Wiki would be that maybe they want to include the costume design winner, maybe. Then again, I do think that I was shocked when Dune Part 2 missed that category. So I don't know what's gonna happen there. Wake up Dead Man, unfortunately, it's it already seems like it's gonna face too much original Netflix competition.

SPEAKER_01: 1:13:31

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:13:31

Um, Jake Kelly is one that I'd be very careful about because as you had spoken about earlier, it appeals to the industry.

SPEAKER_00: 1:13:38

Right. I think the problem with all those Netflix entries is that since we already have Frankenstein there, which tends to do well, especially below the line. Uh I think right now, if there is a second Netflix movie, it has to be train dreams.

SPEAKER_02: 1:13:51

And I and I'm glad that you brought it there because that brings me to my second question for you, which is right now we're seeing Frankenstein sort of in the upper echelon of best picture, train dreams is starting to solidify itself at the top of that second tier for best picture, maybe. Um, certainly a stronger contender than we had thought. But there's an issue here, right? Which is that both films they cannot both get in for best picture and both get dodged from best actor. And Joe Edgerton. From an acting nomination, excuse me, from an acting nomination. Joe Edgerton is in the most competitive category and is has the quietest performance. And Jacob Alorty is playing, you know, a more speculative, fantastical creature, which is typically not what they nominate at the Oscars, and he still has a very young career.

SPEAKER_00: 1:14:39

Right. Um, and so if you look at the history, we're we're talking about how if you look at the history for Netflix, when they've gotten historically two films into Best Picture, because they've never gotten three films, um, when they got in two films into Best Picture, at least one of those films factored into the acting races.

SPEAKER_02: 1:14:56

Exactly.

SPEAKER_00: 1:14:57

Um, it's probably very rare slash maybe not realistic to think that Netflix would get two films into Best Picture and not at least land in acting somewhere. Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_02: 1:15:08

At one of their films, exactly. Um, and so I think that's really fascinating to think about um because it sort of paints the idea that Jacob Bellordi or Joel Ederton is maybe stronger than we think, or that that second Netflix movie is instead gonna piggyback on what might be their most actor-friendly movie, which could possibly be Jay Kelly, right? Which is what we talk about George Clooney and Adam Sandler possibly being possibly giving the more actor-friendly film performances. Right, right. Right. And so that's something to look for as well.

SPEAKER_00: 1:15:37

Right. Okay, and the Critics Choice Awards are going to be uh released, the nominees on Friday, and we'll have an article up, uh having our predictions up. Um, you know, we've talked about this last year. You and I feel very iffy about the Critics Choice Awards, and that'll be in our article. Maybe we'll write a tweet. Um, you know, as an organization, we have a lot of problems with the Critics' Choice Awards. We sometimes call them in a derogatory fashion the Gold Derby Awards, because you can talk you can see who's going to be nominated by just looking at who the top six at Gold Derby is, because it's an organization that's more interested in predicting Oscars than they are having their own identity uh, you know, during award season of the films that they want to spotlight and that they want to acclaim. You know, I'll never forget very suspicious little things like Jessica Chastain all of a sudden winning the Critic's Choice Award after she won the SAG Award. Um, when it became clear that she was probably going to win the Oscar, when it was clear that they probably would have wanted to give it to Chris Kristen Kristen Stewart for Spencer, or when Jennifer Aniston somehow got nominated for Cake after she got a SAG and a Globe NOM, and they started to see that it was very likely that she would get an Oscar nom. And somehow she showed up at the Critics Choice Awards for Best Actress, you know, and the plethora of things like that. They also pride themselves in announcing sometimes before they give the winner that they've correctly predicted the Oscars, such and such times. So it's just an organization that's more interested in, or at least it seems like, is way more interested in uh who they think is going to be the Oscar winner than who they the films and performances and filmmakers that they individually want to spotlight.

SPEAKER_02: 1:17:17

Yeah, which is why I would argue also that like as a televised event, it's probably the um ceremony, I guess, um, that most people are going to be unenthused about attending. I, you know, I just feels like the actors that are there, it's like because they drew the short straw, like, well, who's going to that? Well, I guess I have to go because I drew the short straw.

SPEAKER_00: 1:17:36

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:17:36

Um, they all don't look very uh enthusiastic about being there and just receiving this like it's an awkward ceremony. It's it's a very awkward ceremony. It's cringe every time they say, and we get this, we get we predict the Oscar winning here nine times out of ten. I just think it's like uh it's a nice game to play, you know, online and discuss, but I don't think you have to have a whole award ceremony for that. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:17:56

And then you also see these members on social media see, you know, releasing their ballot and and showing their ballot and showing film. Sometimes they do, and sometimes they show like films and filmmakers that they were passionate about spotlighting, and you have interesting picks, but then the Crick's Choice Award nominations come out and all that ingenuity and all that originality goes out the window. It's kind of fascinating because I guess in bulk, yes, they're just more interested in Oscars.

SPEAKER_02: 1:18:21

Yeah, like when the system gets a hold of your very individualistic ballot, it will only keep what serves the system, if that if that kind of makes sense. That's what it feels like, yeah. So, yeah. Um, so we'll write something up really quickly about that. We'll see what happens. Um, and then I guess the last couple of things to mention before we get into our our our deep dive into the Golden Globes is um Morning Supreme finally came out, got first batch of critics. They're all very excited. Um, looks like a surefire contender. We'll do a whole awards profile on it when we watch it. Hopefully, we can watch it this month at some point. Um, but certainly it's it's starting off like gangbusters, a lot of enthusiasm. Obviously, there's a few people who aren't a fan, and some people who think it's you know just all right, but the vast majority do like the film an incredible amount, and it looks like it's certainly going to be a difficult vehicle to stop for Timothy Chalamet.

SPEAKER_00: 1:19:08

And we also think that it's as it stands right now, uh positioning itself to be a film that even breaks double digits when it gets nominations. One of the bigger A24 films, which uh would make sense for the kind of A24 period piece. Right. You know, the Brutalists kind of played that card last year and got 10 nominations. Um, they tend to do well below the line when their films deal with, you know, period pieces. Um, and so with this kind of uh Weeze Raves, it's very, it's getting very, very possible to see this film break double digits.

SPEAKER_02: 1:19:39

Yeah, I'm excited to see it so that we can do a deeper dive into like we know what categories we see it specifically playing out in. There are certainly fans of uh Kevin O'Leary for the film, but you know, Gwyneth Powtrill has her fans, Odessa has her fans. We're gonna look at the text. Um, Jerry'cause Kanji is doing some uh the lensing, um, but we're big uh uh Jack Fisk fans. And he's doing the production design. We'll talk about the costumes and the score, but I know the score is sort of anachronistic. So we'll do a whole awards profile when we see it. But suffice it to say, it's doing really well so far. Certainly feels like a top five movie. And I can only imagine the box office sort of pushing it into possibly being a top two movie. Speaking of box office, Sentimental Value is doing well at the box office. Hamnet is doing great at the box office. Nothing is gonna make any film other than One Battle a bigger contender than making some really good, good money at the box office. But then the other news I'll say is that Avatar Fire and Ash finally screened, getting some first social media reactions, no official word yet. But it does feel like we're in for a little bit more of the same in terms of Avatar the Way of Water, um, and not necessarily Avatar from 2009, which was had this huge moment, even for critics, because just the arrival of that technology was just groundbreaking. Um, but it does feel like there are fans of the film, um, some some people who are certainly not fans of the film, um, some people who feel it's bogged down by the characters and the story, and it's not um very uh rich or original or or profound. Um everyone loves the visuals, and everyone, you know, is quoting it as cinematic because of the visuals. Um, we'll again do another awards profile, hopefully try to see it a little bit earlier than when it finally releases. Um, but it certainly feels like we're more in the range of sort of uh, you know, um, I would actually say more in the range of the wicked for good territory, which is what's really gonna determine whether this film can go the distance is how much money it can actually make. And how how positive do these reviews lean? Is is it gonna be in the 60s on Metacritic or is it gonna go as low as uh 55 or 58, um like Wicked? Um, what's the Rebana Tomato score gonna be like? And what are audiences gonna feel like? If audiences come out and they feel like, you know, it was worth the wait and it's better than the first one, better than the second one, you know, that may have a little bit of a difference.

SPEAKER_00: 1:22:07

Right. And I just think that, you know, we mentioned in the last episode when we were talking about Wicked that if there's a reality where these big uh releases like Wicked Part 2 and Avatar Three don't are not convincing enough on a on a you know critically for voters, and it's just not a film that is as successful as the previous iteration, that I personally feel like they would opt to leave them both off the list and put films like Train Dreams, you know, and other strong contenders in their place. Yeah. Because I'm not sure they're gonna feel so forced to highlight a film that they thought was truly mediocre for Best Picture, even with 10 spots, I think they would find something that they thought was at least a bit above mediocre.

SPEAKER_02: 1:22:56

And I think we've had this conversation, and again, maybe when we do the awards profile for Avatar, we'll we'll revisit it. But there's plenty of, you know, well-received popcorn films that could very much surprise. And so, like if Avatar Fire and Ash is in the same vicinity as Wicked for Good, don't be surprised if you see a resurgence for F1, right? Right, which was a little bit more liked by critics, bit of a simple movie, but it you know works the formula well. Was a summer movie, Apple's most successful. Plan B is on that, you know. So it's it's you know, people want to see plan B succeed for independence. Weapons. Um, weapons is another one, and so like there's there's enough spectacle where if that's what we want, and I'm not too nuts about you know, a second chapter or a third chapter, they have places to go, and so don't be surprised by that, right? So finally, let's get into our deep dive into the golden globes. Let's start talking about golden globe predictions, what it could mean, who's ahead. Um, and we're actually gonna do this in a counterintuitive fashion, maybe, and let's go ahead and start with the biggest categories. And why don't we start with best picture, comedy, or musical? What are you thinking?

SPEAKER_00: 1:24:08

Okay, so for our predictions, uh, there are a few locks here. So one about after another, obviously, is a lock, so is Marty Supreme, and then I think it gets interesting. Um for our predictions, we're putting J. Kelly, Wicked for Good, Bugonia, and Wake Up Deadman. And our spoiler is gonna be the testament of An Lee. Now, on paper, this seems like a pretty sound list. I have some reservations. Um especially when it comes to this idea of sequels continuations. If you look at Golden Globe history, there tends to be diminishing returns. That was true for Dune. That was certainly true from Avatar that got four nominations the first time around and then went to two nominations. Um, that was even true of uh Knives Out, which went from three nominations to two nominations um for Glass Onion. And so here we have a continuation in Wicked for Good and a continuation in Wake Up Dead Man. And if history holds, they both should get less nominations than they got the last time. And so let's start with Wicked. Popular consensus is that's gonna do really well here at the Globes. The first one did well enough and got four nominations, with including that you know, popcorn, best popcorn movie thing. I don't know if they're doing that this year or not. Um, so if we're following the trends, they should get less than four nominations, and that puts us in a little bit of difficult terrain because I think Wicked for Good stands an excellent shot of being nominated for original song. So there goes one of its possible, let's let's say three nominations. Um, and you still have to consider, you know, repeat nominations for uh Cynthia, for Ariana. So will it kind of beat the rule and get end up getting um four nominations again, including song this time instead of popcorn film? Um, I'm not sure. You know, is there a possibility where it only gets nominated for two performances and a song, or one of the performances gets nominated and a song and picture and one of the other performances gets snubbed? I don't know. Um, I'm not sure that we're brave enough right now to not predict it for best comedy or musical, but it's certainly something to think about. Uh, that, you know, following these thread these trends, it should get less nominations than it got last time. Especially if we're talking about a movie that, again, on a critical level, um uh was a step down, uh, had disappointing critics, and also on a financial level, I mean, if we're reading the box offers results as of now, it doesn't seem like it's gonna make as much money as the first one. So, where does it stand? I'm not quite sure. Wake Up Deadman is the third iteration now. This time, last time it was linear for two. Uh, I think it was uh best picture and best actor in a commoner musical. This time, technically, if we don't follow these those patterns, it would stand to get even less than that. So, are we possibly looking at the scenario where Wake Up Deadman gets a shocking snub and get and does not get nominated for best commoner musical and maybe only gets nominated for a performance? Um, maybe Joshua Connor or maybe Daniel Craig again. Um, it's a question mark to think about. Um Begonia, you know, were they really hiring Begonia or were they not? Um is Begonia on paper seems like the kind of film that would do well here at the Globes. At the same time, I can easily see it being uh sidelined, uh, because it's not one of Yorko's big films, and those films that, you know, it's not the favorite, it's not poor things, those films that tend to be, you know, in the eyes of these Golden Globe voters as lesser Yorgos that tend to have less nominations. Um, so it's also a question mark. The Testament of An Lee's are spoiler, as we've been noting in this episode. I think that's a film that stands to be polarizing. So it would make sense for it to not get in here for best comedy or musical. Um, yeah, what do you think?

SPEAKER_02: 1:28:08

I mean, I think I think we got a strong lineup, and I I like a lot of the films that you said. It looks like a very complete list. I mean, these are the Golden Globes we're talking about, so there are certainly movies that have to do well here that were designed to do well. Um, and I think the globes most of the time take the bait on that, and when they don't, I think it's important and revealing. Um, that being said, I do think, you know, maybe a weak spot here is that we have Netflix twice because we got Jay Kelly and Wake Up Dead Man. It's tough to decide between them, right? If maybe one of them gets snubbed. Um, but for example, the odds are that we're gonna see a focused features movie. We've got Bugonia. Could it be Songsung Blue? You know what I mean? Uh Dolomite is my name was nominated here from Craig Brewer um back in 2019. And we also have two searchlight movies up for the award Rental Family and the Testament of An Lee. Are we right in saying that neither of them get in? Especially when this category is also pretty light on films made or directed by um female directors. Um, and you know, I do think that the Golden Globe should try to be more inclusive, so that may be something that catches their eye. And so, watch out for maybe, as we said, Testament of An Lee to uh spoil the the nomination for one of those films that we listed. Um, they were really big on the Brutalist, they really liked the Brutalist, and so Testament of An Lee is just as ambitious. Um, and we know they like Amanda Safe Reading also. Maybe slightly more, maybe more polarizing. We know they like Amanda Safe Reed, she's a Golden Globe winner for um the dropout. Um, but so I think it's a solid list. I think it it's interesting also because um Netflix rarely misses here, so I do think between Jay Kelly and Wake Up Dead Man, at least one of them should get in. Um, but yeah, I mean don't be surprised um, you know, to see Song Sung Blue, Rental Family, as we said, um No Other Choice could maybe make a splash here from Neon. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 1:30:07

Um Kiss of the Spider Woman from Bill Condon is kind of the thing that they would they would like to on paper, on paper, they would love Kiss of Spider Woman and would get nominated for several things, but we're guessing that the box office is gonna affect its chances.

SPEAKER_02: 1:30:20

Um sorry, baby. Um and Pillion. You kind of mentioned Pillion.

SPEAKER_00: 1:30:24

Yes, Pillion on paper also sounds like the kind of thing the Golden Globes would definitely go all in for. I yeah, I I love it as I've said already many times. Um, but again, I just I wonder if they've seen if they've seen it, if it can compete with the other A24 noise. I mean, Marty Supreme is already in this category for A24, so I don't know if Pillion will end up having to get the shortened of the stick, but certainly it's something the Golden Globes would like.

SPEAKER_02: 1:30:49

I I do like that like Pillion sort of brings a little bit of you know, um, that European English factor, which would be kind of nice to see here and something that they definitely like to do. Um, I do think that a movie like Begonia, for example, like Kiss of Spider Woman, I think both of those films were designed to do well at the Golden Globes. So they should do well here in some capacity, you know what I mean? And I think that's why we've sided with Begonia, even if it is a little bit of a harsher Yorgos film. Um and The Lobster, for example, did not get nominated here. Poor Things Did from Yorgos, and so did um The Favor. Um, Kinds of Kindness got a performance. Um, The Lobster got a performance. There's very much a reality where this is just a performance movie, right? Right. But but since we do think that focus has to get in here with between those two movies, I think we'd rather see begonia or a song song blue. Songsung blue, just because of the subject matter. Right. All right, so then um, what are you thinking for uh best actor in a comedy or musical?

SPEAKER_00: 1:31:48

Okay, for best actor, comedy, comedy, or musical, we have some some locks here. We have uh obviously Timothy Chalamet, Marty Supreme, gunning to women's category, Leo DiCaprio for one battle after another, Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon, and George Clooney for Jay Kelly. I think we can safely count on those. Then it gets uh a little bit interesting. The last two spots. I mean, uh possibly the finition scheme, um, Benny Silotoro, but he already has one battle. Brendan Fraser is there for Rental Family, even though I think he and the Golden Globes don't get along too well, so I don't expect a nomination there. Um, the actor from Pillion, again, how how widely seen is that film going to be seen? Um, Daniel Craya, could he get a third nomination for the Knives Out franchise? Again, there should be diminishing returns, and we're betting that he will not be nominated. Uh, Channing Tatum has never gotten a Golden Globe nomination, as odd as that sounds, and this would be an opportune moment. Um, but I don't know. I feel like Roofman is kind of quiet right now. And then there's Bogonia, which makes perfect sense here for Jesse Plemens, except he just got nominated last year for another Yorgos film, uh Kinds of Kindness. So maybe the Globes are gonna feel like they'd rather make some room for some other contenders, which leaves us with three other people, I think. And that is um Hugh Jackman for Songsong Blue. Um, I we fully expect Kate Hudson to get in here in the best actress comedy or musical, and it would make sense for her and Hugh Jackman to get in as a pair. They love Hugh Jackman, so watch out for him. But we're actually betting that the last two spots will go to uh uh to well one foreign performance, uh Lee Byeon Yun in No Other Choice, um, which I think would be the first Asian actor to be included in this best actor comedy or musical category, which is really uh interesting. Um, and also might be the first foreign language performance in this category, full stop. Um, could that be a reason why it might not happen? Because it's just a pattern in this category, possibly. Um, but since the globes are trying to be more inclusive, we're betting that it might happen. And we're also gonna bet on Tonya 2 for Kiss of the Spider Woman. Obviously, Kiss of the Spider Woman uh has a big hurdle because of the box office performance. But Tonya 2, this is the kind of film that Golden Globes would absolutely like if they were to see it. Um, it has the Razzle Dazzle that they will respond to. They've responded to Bill Conan's films in the past. Um, and uh it feels like this is an adequate spot to spotlight the film because they do love new talent, they do love spotlighting new talent. It would also give them some more representation here because Tony Tiu is a queer actor. Um, he's a Latino. There's not that many Latinos in the awards conversation, period. And so that's an opportunity to spotlight him. Um, and so we're gonna bet for those last two spots is Lee Bianun and Tony Tiu.

SPEAKER_02: 1:34:47

I mean, I think if there's anything that could work against either of those uh two actors getting it, is you know, the globes very much operate in a way where because they're a televised event, a major televised event, um, you know, the goal is to get viewership. And so oftentimes what you'll see is the Golden Globes, whenever possible, put as many faces and marquee names in a category. And if that is the case, um, you know, that gives an edge to Hugh Jackman, that gives an edge to Channing Tatum, um, Channing Tatum because he's never been there, uh, Hugh Jackman because he's he's usually there. Um, I also think that it helps Hugh Jackman in the sense that if Kate Hudson does get in, the thing that makes the most sense is a pair, you know, and that's something that works uh against, for example, Lee Bian, who'd be by himself. Right. Um, and so I I I'd watch out for that. Um, but yeah, I think that's what we're the other thing I'd probably say is, you know, Daniel Craig beyond diminishing returns, you know, he's if he gets nominated for Wake Up Deadman, he's been in every single, he's got a nominated for every single one in the series. So it'd be his third consecutive um nomination for playing Benoit Blanc. Um, but also he just he's coming off a nomination last year for queer. And so that's probably another reason to keep him off, and one more reason to just nominate Knives Owl for one award, and that's it, if our theory is correct. Um and maybe this year they'll just you know um, you know, shelf that theory. Um and the other thing I'll say is um I actually don't know, I'm not all that confident about how um the Golden Globes are gonna feel about nominating a very brief performance from Veniso de Toro in one battle after another. And so be careful that they don't decide to instead nominate him here for finishing scheme. Um Vinisso's actually only ever been nominated for one Golden Globe, um, which he won for traffic. It's kind of mind-boggling that he's never been back, which makes it all the more reason, you know, why he should be back this year. But do not be shocked if they leave him out of supporting actor in favor of another name and they find room for him in actor, only because you know this organization tends to frown upon roles that are extremely brief.

SPEAKER_00: 1:37:04

Right. Yeah. Right. But for now we're going with Timothy Chalamet, Leo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, George Clooney, Lee Byong-un, and Tony Chu. Um, for actress, comedy, or musical, this one's kind of more of an interesting category. Doesn't feel like too many people in this category are 100% safe. We could be uh surprised with some inclusions. Right now, I would say that um Kate Hudson, we were just talking about her for Song Swing Blue. She's gotten the best ink out of the movie, even if the movie overall hasn't really uh gotten good critics. Right now, it's pretty it's in the 50s on Metacritic. We don't expect it to be you know green at the end of the day. We could be wrong. And this is coming off the heels of you know Hugh Jackman's shout out of the Gotham's Kate Hats and was gonna win the Oscar. Yeah, we'll see if that materializes or not. That was very bold. But I think with six spots, we have a good opportunity we have a good shot of seeing uh Chase Infinity land here for one battle after another, which is a sort of star-making uh role, star-making performance. Certainly, there should be enough room for um Rose Byrne for if I had legs, I'd kick you. Um, Emma Stone is probably a favorite to get in here for Bogonia, even though she just won for poor things, another Yorgor's vehicle. But if they might respect the commitment she's making as an actor, shaving her head, it's etc. Um, and Amanda Seyfried for the Testament Van Lee should easily land here unless the film is maybe too polarizing and we get a shock snow, but I doubt it happens. At least I can see Amanda getting in, and again, nothing else. Um, but I feel pretty good about her getting in. And then there's the situation with Wicked. You know, is there gonna be diminishing returns for Wicked? If there is, where are we gonna see it? Are we gonna see it in a snuff for picture? Are we gonna see it in a snuff for one of the actings? Um, you know, we we still have yet to know to to figure out what's gonna happen there, but we can at least, it seems like the smart money would be not to bet against them spotlighting both performances. I think it would be odd for the Golden Globes to nominate one performance and not the other, so that's also a complication. Um, Cynthia Rebel has also been nominated here um already with Harriet in the drama category, and I think she can high for song that year as well. Um, and uh Wicked. So she already has two acting nominations. Um, considering that there's six spots and some of her competitors are on you know what they would consider lesser films, maybe she maybe can't miss here. I don't know. Um, certainly the people to look out for us, uh the biggest spoiler might be Gene Squid for Eleanor the Great, uh the Scarlett Johansson uh debut, which again was met kind of muted by critics, um, certainly mixed. Um, and uh she would be the oldest nominee, I believe, possibly, if she were to get nominated for the Oscar. Um, I think it sucks that the film didn't wasn't a better horse, because I think in this really Kind of weird actress race, I think she would have had a real shot. You know, imagine if uh uh Eleanor the Great was uh Felma somehow, you know, in this kind of year, I think she would have uh a bigger opportunity. And then other people to look out for is uh Dakota Johnson, Dakota Johnson for Materialist. That feels like a total Golden Globe nominee. Um, so it's kind of weird leaving her out for me personally. Um, there's Emma Mackey for Ella McKay, and there's Eva Victor for sorry baby. Um, all of them I can't, I think, are just at the periphery because of the of the other contenders ahead of them. But I think we're gonna go with Amanda Safried, Cynthia Revo, Emma Stone, Rose Byrne, Chase Infinity, and Kate Hudson.

SPEAKER_02: 1:40:43

I mean, I think that's I think I I think that's a solid lineup. Um, just watch out for June Squibb because it would be like maybe a nomination on behalf of both Thalma and Eleanor the Great. And we know the Globes love Scar Johansson. Um, I think you're right. The the marquee name that you want on that list is Dakota Johnson. Right. Um exactly, it's a question of who you screw over. Um uh Ellen McKay coming out soon. Here's the thing of if there is a weak spot in the lineup, I would I would suggest that it's either Chase because she's an unknown name, but because her movie stands to be that popular, I actually think the weakest person in this category, like it or not, might actually be Rose Byrne, um, because the movie is um challenging um and she's by herself um and didn't make any money. I kind of see that Emma Stone, like, even if Bugonia gets an upfront picture, which can happen, um, I kind of see her being the solo nominee in a Yorgos film, kind of like Jesse Plemens last year or Colin Farrell in The Lobster. Um, and so like she could have gotten in last year for kinds of kindness, but they were sort of of the mind that like we just gave her the win for poor things. Well, now has been a little bit more time. And if Jesse got in by himself last year, you can see Emma getting in by herself this year. Um, but I actually think that just watch out that they don't favor Ava Victor and her performance in Sorry Baby over you know what is kind of a grueling watch in if I had like that kick you. So I I'm saying that I wouldn't be shocked if if Rose Byrne was snubbed from this category.

SPEAKER_00: 1:42:20

Right. But right now we're predicting those six, and our spoiler is June Squid for Eleanor the Great. Yeah, exactly. Okay, well, let's head over to the other side. Uh Best Drama. What do you have for what what are we predicting for best picture drama?

SPEAKER_02: 1:42:32

Well, for picture drama, it certainly feels like there are two films that are really out ahead and they're gonna fight for the for the win. Um, the favorite should be Hamnet from Focus Features, so bet on that. Sinners from Warner Brothers should be really, really close. Um, and it's gonna be challenging um to maybe upset Chloe Zhao for that win. Um, then you know the Golden Globes have started nominating, have started nominating more international films within Best Picture, either you know, comedy or musical or drama. For example, you'll see Anatomy of the Fall and Picture Drama, you'll see Amelia Perez and Picture Comedy. And so I think the the favorite thinking is that Jafar Panahi, because of his narrative, because of the movie, he will land in Best Picture for it was just an accident from Neon. And that sentimental value will land in Best Picture as well. If there's one weak one between the two, I do wonder if it isn't sentimental value, even though it looks like it could it could appeal to them a lot. I just want to remind everyone that the worst person in the world was not nominated here for international film, and I thought that was interesting. Um, so nonetheless, I think that's still two films we're predicting. It was just an accident, sentimental value, and we have more or less two open spots. One of them I think we feel pretty confident in uh Guillermo del Toro getting in for Frankenstein and that being Netflix's nominee. Um, and it just feels like um the kind of uh Guillermo del Toro film that they'll flock to, with sort of the the narrative that he's built into it and it being a giant passion project. Um so is it I think it's a little risky, but we're predicting it nonetheless. I think the Netflix um backing helps it a lot. Um, other films that you know are worth considering are, for example, uh Avatar, Fire and Ash. We know Avatar Way of Water got in here, um, Picture and Director, Avatar, the first one, got four, including Picture and Director, where Diminishing Returns. Yeah, and one Best Picture Director. And so I'm thinking we're thinking that with diminishing returns, it should maybe miss out here. Um, that said, you know, the globes are very much about pushing, you know, what's um of the moment, and so their nominations coming on the heels of the release of Avatar. You gotta believe that they want to nominate Avatar for Best Picture, and so we're kind of betting on diminishing returns, but that whole theory, you know, it could be shelved this year. So we'll see what happens. Um, Riley Cooper does well here. Is this thing on? Was um like late in the game switched to drama, and you're gonna have to wonder if that's gonna pay off. I think it's a little weird that Searchlight doesn't have a movie in either comedy or drama, and so you have to you have to think that they're trying to campaign as hard as they can. If not, they're gonna, you know, wind up with very little on you know on Oscar nominations. Um, weapons uh and F1 are two populous films that maybe have an outside chance. Um, but they the the Golden Globes tend to favor something with a heavier subject matter. Um, Secret Agent. Um, unfortunately, there's maybe too many international films, so it should suffer because of that, which leaves um just a handful of films that we were really considering. Trained Dreams is surging right now, but we think it might be too quiet. And I think we ended up siding with Nuremberg, right? Because of the subject matter, um, because of uh recency bias. Um, it feels kind of like you know, those films that were designed to do well with the Golden Globes, Nuremberg is one of those. And I think it's uh very important that it has a pretty strong showing um here at this award show. And so we're sort of pegging Sony Picture Classics to get in here with Nuremberg. Um I think our spoiler actually is gonna be a house of dynamite because the subject matter again could give it an edge. You know, nuclear disarmament, the wide cast that it has. Catherine Bigelow, I just want to remind everyone, has never won a Golden Globe. Remember, she did not win for the Her Locker, she did not win for Zero Dark 30, and she got listed for both. Um the Golden Globes are also trying to be more inclusive. Um, and so I think they would really, you know, um like to have um more female filmmakers um in their lineup in Best Picture. And so they have Chloe Zhao, but the idea that you know they've never given Catherine Bigelow her flowers and that the film is timely and urgent could really push it to being nominated over Frankenstein, possibly as the Netflix pick, or maybe even Nuremberg and having Netflix in there twice. Um, so that's something to look out for. I think it's a it's a spoiler right now. We have it on the spoiler spot, but I would not be surprised um at all if it shows up. And again, this is one of those films that I think is designed to do well at the Golden Globes. So we'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_00: 1:47:14

Right. So it's Hamnet, Sinners, it was just an accident, sentimental value, Frankenstein and Nuremberg. Yeah, and the spoilers, Has a Dynamax.

SPEAKER_02: 1:47:20

Exactly.

SPEAKER_00: 1:47:22

Okay, and actor drama, what do we got?

SPEAKER_02: 1:47:24

Um actor drama, I think, um, is kind of fun because a lot of the sure things are like in comedy or musical. And so we have the theory that this is one of the most important races at the Golden Globes because we very much think there's an open spot um at the Oscars. Um and open fifth spot, an open fifth spot at the Oscars, and that that spot will likely benefit the performance that can double up between a Golden Globe nomination and a SAG nomination, or or whoever wins the Golden Globe drama were in not to be Wagner. And at this point, every I think our our favorite to win this category is Wagner Mora. If something were to happen and Wagner Mora were to not win this, I think then we're looking at the possibility of whoever winning it being strong enough to fill out the fifth spot, which is anyone's game right now. Um, and I think the thing about Wagner Mora that we're worried about is that, you know, historically, I think in this category, it tends to favor the best picture nominee. And so Wagner's biggest competition, and who we think is an absolute lock here, who should be a lock here, is Michael B. Jordan for Sinners. Um, he's in a surefire best picture nominee, uh, best picture nominee. Um, he's never been nominated. Um, he's had the work, the caliber of work to get one. He has never gotten one. So we definitely think he'll be nominated this year, and he may just be the favorite to win. Um, beyond that, I think what we're looking at is a bunch of performances that had a lot of buzz early on, but have sort of tripped up. And again, all these films and performances were designed to appeal to the Golden Globe. So, should some of them miss, it's it's a huge red flag. Um, but because there is space, um after Michael B. Jordan, we should see Wagner Mora, and that's more or less a lock for us. If Wagner Mora doesn't get in here, it's it's a major, major snub. But we are totally expecting him to get in on the heels of Fernando Torres, winning Best Actress Drama for Brazil for I'm Still Here, so we're expecting that to happen. Um, but after that, um look for movies that sort of tripped up like Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me From Nowhere. He should get in here, right? Um, Dwayne Johnson for the smashing machine. If he doesn't at least get a Golden Globe nomination, you gotta imagine that some of the people behind this film are gonna be incredibly frustrated.

unknown: 1:49:50

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:49:51

Um, especially with Marty Supreme um blowing up right now. Um, Will Arnett looks like he's poised to get a nomination for Is This Thing On with that sort of switch from comedy, which was packed into drama, which is great to see. Yeah, which is I'm really happy about that. Um again, Bradley Cooper does really well at the Golden Globe. So I think this feels like an at minimum nomination. If they don't nominate it, it'd be very unfortunate. I know that you're a big fan of the performance of the film. Yes. Um, and I think who we're pegging for the last spot in keeping with our best picture, and again, this one maybe feels a little bit more sure than best picture. I think we're sort of pegging Russell Crowe to get in here for Nuremberg. It's a very baity role, it's a very uh kind of showy performance. Uh, they really like Russell Crowe. Um, he's won a couple of times, and his movies do well, um, not just in his own category, but in other categories, bigger categories. That's why we're sort of seeing an overlap between Russell and picture drama. So that's what we're thinking. But that leaves out our spoiler, who's again sort of surging right now, and so we're sort of going against the grain and saying that Joel Edgerton's performance might be a little too quiet in Train Dreams to get in here.

SPEAKER_00: 1:51:01

Well, he has a Golden Globe nomination for loving.

SPEAKER_02: 1:51:03

Yeah, and that's I think that factored into our reasoning as to why not to nominate him and instead include someone like Will Arnett, right? Who doesn't have any Golden Globe nominations. This is this would be Will Arnett's first Golden Globe nomination, right? Um but it does feel weird leaving him out. It does feel weird at the moment to leave him out, but when you see the film, I do feel like it it may be too quiet of a performance. And again, loving was kind of a quiet performance too. Yeah, but I think it'll it helped that it was based on a real character and that he had a pair because Ruth Nego was there. Right. And in train dreams, he's kind of by himself.

SPEAKER_01: 1:51:36

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:51:36

Um, and so some of the other people that you know don't be shocked if they show up is um you know, Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein, um, he's been nominated before. He's not really the performance everyone talks about, but they're gonna nominate Frankenstein in picture probably. Um, they absolutely adore Colin Farrell and Ballad of a Small Player. I'm sorry, they love Colin Farrell. Is that enough to get Ballad of a Small Player in? I don't think so, but you know, you know, you don't know how far their loyalty to Colin Farrell can go. Um, the biggest one, I think, in my mind is actually Daniel Day Lewis for anemone. So again, we talk about movies that were designed to do well at the Golden Globes. Daniel DeLewis has always done well at the Golden Globes, even for performances that aren't nominated for Academy Awards. Um, it's a very, again, very baby performance of has a lot of meat. It's the kind of thing that would certainly appeal to them. Uh, I we sort of talked about how focused features sort of designed their campaign to move Paul Mesko into supporting actor to give him a better shot because he had recently been nomined for Best Actor for Aftersom, but it also clears the way for them to campaign Daniel Day Lewis in that sort of you know headline grabbing uh turn in terms of you know his big screen return after announcing his retirement and and you know he's coming back and he's in his in the film directed by his son, and so uh if he's gonna show up somewhere, now would be the time, and he he would have to steal one of those spots. And I think he gets in so often that he's always gonna be dangerous to take it.

SPEAKER_00: 1:53:05

Right, no, no, no. No, I hear you. So we've got Michael B. Jordan, Jeremy Allen White, Dwayne Johnson, Wagner Mora, Will Arnett, and Russell Crowe. And our spoiler is Joel Edgerton. And uh actress drama, uh, what are we thinking?

SPEAKER_02: 1:53:20

Um, so for actress drama, uh, I think there are a couple of locks. We have Jesse Buckley in here for Hamnet. Uh, should be yes, um, sort of the de facto winner. Um, she should get in for this. Um, Renata Vines should get in for sentimental value. Um, I think those are the two major locks. After that, it's about filling, you know, the rest of the spots with people who we think that the globes are gonna like spotlighting. And one of the first names that came to us was Tessa Thompson for HETA. Um, because she had never been nominated, um, and you could argue she should have been there for passing. Um, but also because of the role, right? The nature of the role and Amazon MGM, they tend to do well here. Remember, they got nickel boys in um along with Plan B Amazon MGM. Um, so they're working on HETA. So this feels like, again, if if they don't get a nomination for Tessa Thompson here, it feels like something kind of blew up in their face.

SPEAKER_00: 1:54:14

Right. Well, the thing that might have blown up in their face, and we'll talk about it, is that you know, Amazon's might be all in on the Julia Roberts getting a nomination here for after the hunt. So will the Golden Globe voters have to choose between one um Amazon, uh Amazon MGM spot going to Tessa Thompson or going to Julia Roberts? I think most people would be high on Julia Roberts, but we think otherwise.

SPEAKER_02: 1:54:38

Right. I mean, I think that can certainly end up being a factor. Right now, we're sort of leaning to Tessa Thompson because of the actor, because of the standing of the film, um, because of the nature of the role. Also because it's a stronger film. It's a stronger film, just in general. Um, and also uh plan B is on this one. They're not on after the hunt. So maybe that helps. Um, then after that, we thought this was maybe again the the nomination that Sydney Sweeney has to come out with for Christy. Again, like the Smashing Machine. If after all that effort she doesn't at least get a Golden Globe nomination, it's gonna be incredibly frustrating. So I think uh we we think that Sydney Sweeney will get in. After that, the list starts thinning out, yeah. And it's about finding a performance that we think is gonna um resonate with voters. Um, some people have been talking about Julia Roberts still, but I think our mentality is that the film is just too flawed, yeah. Um, and that they're not gonna enjoy it. Um maybe we're wrong. I mean, Challengers did well last year, Daniel Craig got in for queer, but this film is so far from good that that it would not um shock us at all if Julia did not get in. And they've been doing like a good job of like getting Julia and Luke Guadagnino, you know, tribute-like stuff and sort of sponsoring awards that they get in into, but I don't know if the Golden Globes are going to want to nominate Julia. That said, you know, the Golden Globes do like Julia Roberts a lot.

SPEAKER_00: 1:56:01

Yeah. Um her last solo nomination, you know, and after the hunt would be uh a solo nomination. Her last solo nomination was actually for duplicity, way back when.

SPEAKER_02: 1:56:11

Yeah, so she can do it, she can get in by herself. It's and it's it's the film's only nomination, I think, Duplicity. Right. So that's not unheard of. Um, but more often than not, they like Julia and her films enough to nominate them for several things, like Sally Field and her for Steel Magnolias, or her and uh her film for My Best Friend's Wedding. And so maybe because they understand that it's not a top-tier Julia film or a uh a Julia co-star that we really want to nominate, they'll probably maybe they'll shelve it. I'm thinking in 2009, the competition wasn't very high, so that might happen. Again, the list is very thin, so she can still crack the top six, even with Tessa Thompson there. But um, someone else, for example, to talk about sort of on the opposite side of the spectrum, is a great performance from Jennifer Lawrence in Die My Love, but the film is so far removed from what they would like.

SPEAKER_00: 1:57:01

Yeah, I think most people are predicting her because they think that the Globes love Jennifer Lawrence, and that might be true, but this is her most challenging work yet. And I just don't see the Golden Globe voters being uh responding to the film, even though I think it's amazing.

SPEAKER_02: 1:57:15

It would be a huge win because Lynn Ramsey films traditionally do not do well here. It's an incredible performance, but also again, like if I had legs, it's going to be incredibly alienating and it's gonna be a turnoff to a lot of people. At the same time, we talk about the idea of nominating marquee people and marquee names. Jennifer Lawrence has always had the name to attract Golden Globe voters. Right. She got in pretty recently for 2023 for No Heart Feelings, which I thought was terrible and which I thought she was atrocious on. Um that said she's still got a nomination for actress in a comedy or musical. Um, and I think it goes to show you a solo nomination, so it goes to show you how powerful her name is. The question is, can she do it for Die My Love? Um, I'm sort of betting that because the nomination was there for No Hard Feelings, they're kind of feel like I don't have to nominate her again, because that was literally two years ago. You know what I mean?

SPEAKER_00: 1:58:10

Um I think they're also gonna choose between you know these uh maternal uh you know filmic experiences, you know, very uh psychological and uh you know confrontational. They're gonna choose between if a head legs I kick you or die my love. And I think for them at least, uh if I had legs would edge out die my love by a little bit.

SPEAKER_02: 1:58:31

Yeah, I I I would agree with that um because of the nature of the film, but certainly the name Jennifer Lawrence is gonna have some traction. Um, other people are talking about Laura Dern and is this thing on? And you know, the Golden Globes have nominated and awarded Laura Dern like crazy. Um we're we aren't predicting Will Arnette to get in there, and so it would make a good pair. Um you've seen the film, I haven't seen the film yet, and I I feel like Will has the showier part. Yeah. Um, and I feel like again, he has the history, the idea that he's never been nominated. Um uh actually it's kind of funny because Laura Dern doesn't have that many Golden Globe nominations for her film work. Right. So she won for Marriage Story, and I think she has that nomination for Rambling Rose from the 90s. Um, but she doesn't very often get in on the film side. I wonder if Will Arnett can carry her with him to that nomination if they both get in. And I wonder if Bradley Cooper can push this film to a couple of nominations because of his name.

SPEAKER_00: 1:59:32

Yeah, I'm trying to feel even in during this conversation that that is this thing always gonna do better than than people think for this.

SPEAKER_02: 1:59:39

It would make sense. Um, it would make sense. Um, Julia Garner is there for weapons, and they've nominated Julia Garner before. Um, but I think we're sort of siding with two more quiet performances. Um, I think we each have different reasons for maybe thinking while they'll get in. I I think one of them is gonna end up being Lucy Lou for Rosemead. Um, I think it just it frames her and A new light, and they understand that it's a kind of performance that they're really they may not get an opportunity to nominate Lucy Lou for that caliber of work in the upcoming future, you know, and that she you know she does a lot to get you to appreciate how talented she is as a performer. Um, you know, she gets much more difficult material this time that she's gotten in quite some time, um, and that'll come out in December. Um, the only issue is that it's from a smaller distributor, like vertical, but it is based on a true story. It does have this continued sort of maternal motif that a lot of these films are dealing with. Um so I think I think the that it being based on a true story is gonna give it an edge over something like Die My Love, even if Jennifer Lawrence has the flashier name. Um, I do think Rosemead is gonna be an immediately more um a more uh how do I uh not compelling but a more inviting view because it is it is less unorthodox than Die My Love. Oh, absolutely. And then you sort of pitch the idea that maybe for that last bot, instead of someone like Laura Dern, we might see someone like Jodie Foster.

SPEAKER_00: 2:01:10

Jodie Foster in the private life, we have not seen that film, but we do we we're big fans of the filmmaker. Um, and you know, it just if you see the trailer, you it's the kind of film that I can imagine Golden Globe voters appreciating, and they love Jody Foster. So if they have an opportunity, and this is also her first, I think it's her first performance in French. I think first lead. First, she was in uh that to that 2007 movie, Very Long Engagement. Yes, yes, yes. Um, and so I think that that's an extra appeal that's gonna that the film has and the performance has for the voters. So I think that she'll get in. I'm a little bit worried about Rosemead, especially after getting snubbed from completely from the Independent Spirit Awards, where it should have landed. Um, if it was kind of resonating, you know, the way that we were thinking it might. Um, maybe the small studio of it all is just not, you know, not giving her that traction that she needs. Um, but right now those are the ones we're predicting.

SPEAKER_02: 2:02:07

I mean, I think also they obviously like Jody Foster a lot, but I do wonder if it's too many nominations for Jody Foster, you know, recent nominations between Street Detective and Nyad, and she won for the Mauritanian, which she was great in. Yeah, that's true. You know, I do wonder if they'll feel like I can skip Jody Foster this time.

SPEAKER_01: 2:02:27

That's true.

SPEAKER_02: 2:02:27

Um, and so basically, I think right now where we're at is our predicted six are Jesse Buckley and Hamnet, Renato Ryan Sentimental Value, Tessa Thompson and Heta, Sidney Sweeney for Christie, Lucy Lou for Rosemead, and Jody Foster for A Private Life. And our spoiler is Julia Roberts for After the Hunt. Can she can she get in there? Again, I think this is a must for her. Um, this is the the place where she's strongest. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 2:02:51

And interestingly enough, this would be the first Golden Globe nomination for Jesse Buckley. Yeah. Who's never been nominated here. That's kind of interesting. That's that's big.

SPEAKER_02: 2:02:59

Yeah, that's kind of interesting. And you never know if that might level the playing field. Because if it is the six that we're saying, right, if it is, I think technically all of them but Jody Foster are new nominees. Right. Ray Nato's never been nominated, Tessa's never been nominated, Sydney's never been nominated, and Lucy Lou, I don't think, has a has a an individual nomination at the Golden Globes. And so watch watch for that to be a factor if they really want to pull off an upset somewhere, which I doubt. She should still be the favorite here.

SPEAKER_00: 2:03:30

Okay, now for again, one of the most chaotic categories this year, and it's supporting actress. Um it's very, a very fluid category. I mean, any and all of these women could be snubbed um for other contenders. Don't be surprised. It's that kind of year, it's that kind of category. And so I would, I would, I would refrain from saying that anyone, and that's crazy, anyone is a lock. Because again, I can easily see any one of these contenders not being spotlighted. But right now, I'm gonna say that Alfanning has been nominated, I think, three times for her work in um The Great. Uh, she's never been nominated in film. I think that they're gonna like sentimental value. I think she's gonna get in. Um, I think we looked at something interesting, which is that you know, if you look at the history of the Willing Globes, I believe the only times that a foreign performance landed in this category were uh Zoe Zaldano in Amelia Perrus, and I guess if you can count Celina Gomez and Amelia Peres, and then the two actresses in Babel who both got nominated um, you know, in the same category that year. Um we're feeling that the Globes are going to only nominate one of the sentimental value actresses, and that that'll be all fanning because she has the bigger name and they're more used to her work and they're willing to spotlight her in film. Um another one bout after another has uh at least two contenders in this category. But as you were mentioning earlier, um the Golden Globes tend to look down on you know very small, you know, performances that that that uh have a small runtime. So I think that takes Regina Hall out and Teana Taylor's the showier performance. So I think that she'll get in as a representative for that film. They actually really like Amy Madigan, who I think has, I believe, three nominations. Yeah. And she already has a Golden Globe win, but for her TV work. Um, and so I definitely expect her to show up here as well. I know some people are unsure if she'll be making these major precursors. I think this is one precursor that you can bank on that Amy Madigan will get, and that she, if she were to get it, we mentioned earlier, she'll be gunning for the win here. Um I remember her last Golden Globe speech. I believe it was a project that was related to uh abortion rights, and and it was uh an impactful speech. And if you see that speech, I think you can see, I don't know, you can just see this Amy Madigan train, you know, picking up more and more steam. Um I think there's no way that they don't nominate Gwyneth Paltro for Marty Supreme. I mean, she's not a lock, but it's just the kind of thing that feels it feels like the kind of thing the Globes would do. It's a comeback performance and a film that I think stands to do really well with uh the Golden Globe voters. Uh Gwyneth Paltra hasn't been back since her performance in Proof, which I believe was 2006.

SPEAKER_02: 2:06:21

20 years ago.

SPEAKER_00: 2:06:22

Um, so you know, she only has that nomination for Proof, and obviously uh a win, I believe, for Shakespeare in Love. So she hasn't been here for a while, and so uh and also never in supporting. So I think they're going to relish the opportunity to spotlight her for this kind of film, this kind of comeback in this kind of category. Um, so I think she's gonna be nominated. And like I said, if we're gonna nominate Cynthia Reval, I don't see Cynthia getting in and not Ariana Grande or vice versa. Um, again, I I I fully expect there to be diminishing returns for Wicked. We we just don't know in what shape that's gonna manifest. Um, or if we're completely wrong and they're not gonna have any diminishing returns, but they should, especially with a uh less well-received film. Um, but I feel like if there's one precursor, besides I guess the criteria choice, where you can count on possibly Ariana Grande uh being able to repeat this nomination, it would be the Golden Globes um for supporting actress. And so then that leaves one spot open. And uh again, we've already spoken about Inga um and and and why we're not seeing her. Emily Blunt is there for the smashing machine, but uh usually the Golden Globes like to nominate her when her films are being nominated as a whole. Um, Dwayne Johnson is, we're predicting uh we'll get nominated for drama, but you know, she was just there for Oppenheimer. Um and uh again, her films tend to be, you know, have a higher, higher uh presence in the Golden Globes, you know, usually get nominated for best film. Um, even her sag-winning performance in A Quiet Place wasn't recognized here by the Golden Globes. Um, so we're thinking that the Smashing Machine Underperforming is going to hurt her, especially with you know being spotlighted by being spotlighted by the Globe so recently. Um and then there's uh Glenn Close for Wake Up Dead Man. Uh they have, I don't know if uh anyone uh Anna De Armas was nominated for the first night's out, but the nominee was not nominated. And again, there should be some form of diminishing returns for Wake Up Dead Man. And I wonder if there is a nominee for Wake Up Deadman that you know uh breaks through that it wouldn't be Josh O'Connor because he had he's had such an amazing year, and because he has the best performance in the film, and uh the Glenn Close has been nominated for many Golden Globes. That could be a reason why they welcome her back into this group, but also another reason why they hold off. Um and uh then you have Wumi Mosaku for Sinners, who on paper uh seems like a possible uh person to bet on. However, I I worry that you know the lack of because she might not, she's not a a household name, might be a little further down on their priority list uh compared to some of the people that we do have here. Um maybe, you know, maybe accept Tiana Taylor, but she's in the presumed front runner. Um, and then you have what I would what I would say is uh the last two people that were between, and that is a nomination for Nina Haas and HETA um to go along with the nomination of what we where we are you know pretty feel pretty good about a nomination for Tessa Thompson. That would make perfect sense. Uh there's some foreign appeal there that the you know Hollywood Foreign Press might embrace. So watch out for Nina Haas getting in here uh for best supporting actress and joining Tessa Thompson. Not a lot of people are talking about that, but it's a strict possibility. But for that last spot, I think that you and I are going to bet that Jennifer Lopez will get her third Golden Globe nomination, possibly, um, for Kiss of the Spider Woman and will join Tonya 2 as a pair uh for Kiss of the Spider Woman. Again, Kiss of the Spider Woman is a film that they would absolutely love if you've seen it. Uh question is that enough people see it, or if it's box office uh fumbles will be a detraction and make the Golden Globes less uh less uh make make them feel less urgent to uh want to spotlight it. I will say that Tony Chu benefits from there being two actor categories, so there's a little bit more space, and then supporting actors is one category, so there's more competition, and that could hurt Jennifer Lopez, and Tona Chu might get in by himself and she might be left out. Um, but right Bill Condon films do do well um in in these Golden Globes, especially musicals. So right now we're betting that Jennifer Lopez makes that last spot. Um, but it'll be uh it'll be a fight, I think, between Jennifer and Nina. Um that's uh so Nina is our spoiler, and and and we'll see uh who wins that battle.

SPEAKER_02: 2:11:05

I think yeah, it's that's really interesting. The idea that like it may come down the last spot or two to whoever can capitalize on their other actor being there, and so it's like it's a choice between the pair from Kiss of the Spider Woman, the pair from HETA, and the pair from the Smashing Machine. Um, and it could end up being very close. I do think that the Golden Globes in general, our impression is that they don't love to nominate new faces and unknown faces, especially with so much other possibilities. And I think that's what hurts Woon Me, for example. And I also think that's what hurts Inga. Um so and I'll expand on that in in supporting actor. Um, but I think it's it's gonna be it's gonna be close. And I think it's I would not be surprised if you get to see, for example, uh Hedda and Kiss of the Spider-Woman here, and instead um you see even someone like you know even someone like Taylor Taylor, as as safe as I think that she is, maybe she can be snub because she isn't again as the marquee of a name. I think it's possible. Um weapons has to be here at the Golden Globe somewhere, and I'm predicting it to be here somewhere, and I think the best place for it to be is with Amy Madigan. All right, and jumping into supporting actor, it's actually interesting because a lot of what you're we're talking about for supporting actress actually overlaps with supporting actor, and so through our research, we kind of found you know, double nominees is a popular motif this year. You have two supporting actresses from One Battle, two supporting actresses from Sentimental Value, two supporting actresses from Marty Supreme, and potentially two supporting actors from one battle after another. And from what we're seeing, it's incredibly difficult, certainly in recent history, we can't find it, for a film to double up nominations in a supporting category, and for the other supporting category to also get a film that doubles up nominations.

SPEAKER_01: 2:13:03

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:13:03

And so what we mean by that is you know, when Amelia Perez scores a nomination for Zoe Zaldana and Selena Gomez at the Golden Globe for supporting actress, you do not get two uh actors from the same film um in supporting actor. Um, when um, for example, The Irishman scores a nomination for Joe Pesci and Al Pacino in supporting actor, you don't see one film score two nominations for supporting actress. Um I think the best example we got was a year like 2022, um, when Brendan Gleason and Barry Keegan were nominated for supporting actor for the Banshees of Ina Sharon. And in supporting actress, yeah, they had every chance to nominate Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Shu for Everything Everywhere All at Once, but they only nominated Jamie Lee Curtis. And so that's the pattern is the idea that the Golden Globes will try to resist nominating two actors from Banshees in Supporting Actor, and then two actors from Everything Everywhere All at Once and supporting actors. So like we're gonna double up once but not twice. Exactly. They'll double up once but not twice, and supporting all over you have to sort of decide between the the contenders that I just mentioned the the the actor, the supporting actors in one battle, the supporting actresses of one battle, the supporting actresses of Marty, the supporting actresses of Sentimental, which one is going to double, which one fares the best? And I think we leaned toward the idea of doubling up and supporting actors seemed like the most tempting choice. Yeah. Um, I think we also kind of saw that when they do double up, they tend to have there that there tend to be actors who have been nominated before at the Golden Globes or who have a little bit more of a of a developed career at this point. Uh exactly. So, for example, when Barry Keegan gets in for Banshees of Inus Sharon, he already had a little bit more visibility than Stephanie Shu. Right. And so that works against someone like Inga. Um, that being said, if any of these people manage to be nominated, that that's that's a great sign. Um, but we're sort of um leaning towards supporting actor having Sean Penn for one battle after another and Benito Otaro for one battle after another. Um, we definitely feel that Stan Skarsgaard will be there for um sentimental value, and um we kind of feel pretty confident that this is this is one category. Um, well, before that, I'll say that Hamnet should be there with Paul Maskell, and that's actually his first nomination on the film side, right?

SPEAKER_00: 2:15:24

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:15:24

Um Right.

SPEAKER_00: 2:15:26

I will say that you know, you see that as a pattern with the Golden Globes, where you know, if uh there was an actor who got nominated or got a surprise nomination at the Academy Awards, and somehow the Golden Globes didn't spotlight them, they'll do a redo, and they'll, you know, they have the opportunity to spotlight that actor, they'll take the opportunity and do that. So Paul Masko got into the academy with After Some, didn't get any Golden Globe love. Look for this to be, you know, their do-over where they finally welcome uh Paul Masko.

SPEAKER_02: 2:15:55

Especially since we kind of thought that he would be able to get into Best Actor last year for Gladiator 2. Yeah, because Denzel got in for supporting actor, but they ended up leaving him off. So they have every reason to finally nominate him for his first Golden Globe on the film side here. And so you have uh Stein Skarsgard for Sentimental Value, Paul Masko for Hamnet, Sean Penn one battle after another, Benito del Toro, one battle after another, especially because again, Benicio hasn't been nominated since his win in uh 2000 for traffic that leaves you two spots, and I think we feel pretty confident um about the last two, but it's gonna be tight, and so we think Jacob Bellorthi should get in here for Frankenstein, yeah. Between Frankenstein being a best picture nominee, um, him having the most scene-stealing performance there, but also he's the kind of again marquee actor, marquee name that you know they're sort of chomping on the bit to finally nominate. Not only uh young talent that they want to spotlight, exactly young talent they want to spotlight. And I think they they're also fans of the films that he's made in the past. So, like Saltburn was a double globe nominee, Priscilla was a golden globe nominee. So they definitely have been seeing him in sort of standout films for a while. Um, he'll finally be hopefully in a best picture nominee, and so he stands a great chance of being nominated here. After Jacob, um, you actually have another Netflix movie that I think is in great position to be nominated here, which is Adam Sandler for Jake Kelly. He has the role, it's very baity. Um, we're saying Jay Kelly is gonna go over well with the Golden Globes. I think we kind of are in agreement that this is a movie that was designed to do really well at the Golden Globes, so it should you know get major nominations, and we're sort of pegging Best Picture. We think George Clooney's gonna get in. It's a it makes a good pair for Adam to get in there. Adam has been nominated before for um uh punch the glove, right? So funnily enough, uh uh Paul Thomas Anderson would be there this year as well. Um, but I don't think he's actually been nominated since. I think he got a nomination for his stand-up, but he hasn't been nominated on the film side. So uncut gems, he got snuff for uncover gems. So you kind of have to figure that they're really anxious to nominate him again. Um, and I think this is the one. Um, so I think the six that we're predicting right now are Stellin Skarsgard and Sentimental Value, Paul Masco and Hamnet, Sean Penn in one battle after another, Benicio del Toro in one battle after another, Jacob Bellordi in Frankenstein, and Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly. Our spoiler actually is gonna end up being Alexander Skarsgard in Pillion. Right. Because we do feel like if they were to see the film, it would be the kind of film that they respond to. Yeah, and again, it's another marquee name. It's sort of a role that maybe you did not expect him to take, right? Um, because I mean you can speak more to it than I can, but you know, I think it's you know sexually charged, but you know, it's a queer role, and I think that those are things that they may actually really like.

SPEAKER_00: 2:18:57

Yeah, I think that they'll like the the headline of you know, daddy and son in the same category. Yes, you know, dad and son, um, apologies. Uh and uh uh so that might be something that they're attracted to.

SPEAKER_02: 2:19:11

Yeah, even though it'll take like the whole nepo narrative to like a whole nother. I think the host is Nikki Glazing. So Nikki, I think, is gonna have I think a lot of fun with that movie, but she would have a lot of fun with those pair of nominations also. So watch for that to happen. Other other names that were sort of circulating in our mind. Again, if Kiss of Spider Woman um pulls off a nomination for Tonya 2, don't be surprised if the pair that gets in might be Diego Luna, um, or if the film goes over in a big way, it could be Diego Luna. Again, this is a film that was designed to do well at the Golden Globes, and really the box office really changes trajectory. But the movie in and of itself would traditionally play well there. Um, Delroy Lindo has never been on for a Golden Globe, and he's in centers, it's a surefire best picture nominee. They might finally take. Take advantage and nominate him. And sometimes they can nominate like films with like brief roles, and Daryl Lindo doesn't have a lot of time. Um, but he has some comedic relief. I remember when they nominated William H. Macy for Seabiscuit. Um, so it's like it's not out of character for them to say, I just want to take advantage that Darryl Lindo is um is up for an award. I mean, I think again, like the Benicio one battle, the thing that hurts them is the screen time. And usually when these actors do double up, this is where we're sort of being risky. When they do double up, the screen time is significant, right? And so, like, I think Benicio has less screen time than Barry Keegan in Banshee Zaviner Sharon. He might even have less screen time than Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything Everywhere All at Once. And that may be a factor as to why they decide to to give their their double nominee, the double nomination for a movie to someone in the supporting actors category. So look out for that. Um, but again, Del Rolendo doesn't have a huge amount of time, but just the idea that they've passed him over so often, um, the five bloods was a big one, um, may make them sort of say, I I really want to spotlight him finally. Um, and then two performances that we do think would appeal to voters. Um Josh O'Connor had an amazing year, right? And if there's one performance that you would think is gonna stand out from that film, the actual performance, it would be Josh O'Connor's. Yeah, and it would be a great way to sort of recognize the year he's had. And again, he's someone that you can only imagine that they're desperate to nominate. I remember I was kind of surprised they didn't nominate him last year for Challenger. Right, right. I thought it was the opportune moment. Um, so watch out for him to maybe make a surprise and be the only nomination for Wake Up Dead Man. Or because again, we talked about diminishing returns. Um, or maybe he can join the film and just be those two nominations, the film and supporting actor. I I will say that I think he would have had an amazingly better chance had they moved him up to best actor. He should be the lead. And he is very much the lead in the film. So this was a mistake. That being said, like if he ever gains any traction to actually be nominated, it's gonna be easier to nominate him and supporting actor than lead, maybe that could happen. Um, it'd also be funny because if he did get an eye on supporting actor, he was actually a co-star of Paul Mesko in the history of sound earlier this year. So that's kind of funny. Um, and then the the role that I think is kind of baity, um, that could get in, especially if it has a good day for its lead and in film, is Michael Shannon in Nuremberg. Um and Michael Shannon, I think, has a couple of different projects, and he might be nominated on the TV side with his miniseries. But it's kind of funny that he actually only has one Golden Globe nomination to this point. Remember, he got passed over for Nocturnal Animals in favor of his co-star, and he ended up getting the Oscar nomination anyway. And when Leo DiCaprio and Kate Winsley were being nominated for Revolutionary Road, along with Best Picture, they did overlook Michael Shannon, and he was the only actor to get into an Oscar nomination from that film. Um, so I do think he's an actor of tremendous reputation and tremendous uh uh esteem among his colleagues, and so I wouldn't be surprised if the Golden Globes take advantage to sort of catch up a little bit with their own nominations for him, because at this point he just has a nomination for 99 Homes, right, for which he was eventually snubbed for. And this time with Nuremberg, he could potentially be in there with his co-star, Russell Crowe, and with the film and drama series. Right. I'm sorry, excuse me, uh drama film.

SPEAKER_00: 2:23:27

Right. And so the predictions are uh Stan Skarsgaard, Paul Meskell, Sean Penn, Peniso del Toro, Jacob Alordi, and Adam Sandler. And the spoiler is Alexander Skarsgaard for Pillion. Okay, for best director, I really feel like the best director race in general for the Oscars is down to six contenders, and that's uh Paul Thomas Anderson, Chloe Zhao, uh Josh Safty, Jafar Panahi, um Joachim Trier, and Ryan Kugler. Now, you know, I was tempted at least to make those six, the six nominees for the Golden Globes. However, rarely do you know the five directors uh for the Golden Globes show up uh in the best director category, especially especially uh as of late recently, when they're trying to be more inclusive. They've been also uh trying to include more female filmmakers in this category. So I think the safest people are uh Paul Thomas Anderson for one bat after another and Chloe Zhao for Hamnet and Ryan Kugler for Sinners, and certainly Jafar Panahi for it was just an accident. I think those last two spots are where the interesting things might happen. And right now, we think that Marty Supreme is going to be a big thing for the Golden Globes and is uh stands to do really well here. So we're expecting Josh Safty to get his first nomination as a director here for Marty Supreme and that last spot. Instead of going to uh Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, who again was not nominated, uh his film was a nominated uh worst person in the world in 2021. They might just be okay nominating him in possibly the screenplay category. So we took him out and we put in another female filmmaker in his place. And I think the person that we were most attracted to for the spot was actually Mona Fasfold for directing the testament of Ann Lee. As we've been saying, it is gonna be sort of a polarizing film, but I think that the uh Golden Globe voters are going to certainly appreciate the scope of the project, the ambition of the project. Brady Brady Corbet was nominated, nominated here last year. I think he he won the category for best director. Um, and so we feel that the uh second female director spot uh is gonna go to Mona Fastwald for the testament of Anne Lee. And our spoiler would be another female filmmaker, uh, who, as you said, has never won a golden globe, and that would be Catherine Bigelow for the House House of Dynamite. Um, other people that we considered were uh uh Gimbal Del Toro for Frankenstein, um, but he's been here a few times. Uh James Cameron was here for The Way of Water last in 2022. Uh Avatar The Way of Water the Way of Water, there should be Diminishing Returns. Uh Noel Bombach for Jay Kelly. I think that film tends to do well at the Golden Globes, but I'm not sure well enough for Noel Bombach to get an eye for Best Director, who again has never been nominated for Best Director, interestingly enough. Kleber Fielo for The Secret Agent. Um, I'm still unsure how well that film was going to do. Um, but I I just don't think it has, I guess, the accessibility point that a film like Um I'm Still Here has, and that film couldn't manage a best director nomination here. Um, and then we have uh Parchang Wuk for No Other Choice. Again, I'm not sure that film will transcend possibly a uh foreign language film nomination, and a film that's rising, uh Train Dreams. And uh Clint the director, Clint Van Lee, can certainly benefit from that. So those are the people that we were in between. Again, I do feel like this is a six uh you know, six-man horse race. Um, but we're trying to include uh you know, for to fit the pattern of what the Golden Globes usually do. So we went with Tessament Van Lee. Um, and our spoiler, another female filmmaker, Catherine Bigelow.

SPEAKER_02: 2:27:21

I think you have to be careful with Catherine Bigelow because of just the subject matter and the fact that she's never won. And again, just the idea that certain films were designed to do well, the Golden Globes, this is it, um, has a dynamite. I think one we didn't mention was Begonia. Like again, would it be totally off-color to see Yorgos here? Probably not. I mean, remember, he's only got the one nomination for poor things because they did snub him for the favorite, right? So they're a little bit behind on you know, um, how much accolades they've given him. Um, it'd be kind of interesting because this is actually the first time that Paul Thomas Anderson is actually nominated in this category after such a long career. Shocking, you know. So, like when there will be blood was nominated, he didn't get in. It was like picture and actor, and I think the score might have gotten in, maybe. Um, and so again with Liquor Rich Pizza and Phantom Thread, those films didn't get in, and so that's it's a big, big deal that he's finally finally getting in here. Um, but yeah, I think I think you're I think the slate is is strong. Um, I think we're onto something about sentimental value, right? Um, so so look out for that. Um and I think Marty Supreme, it's kind of interesting because Timothy Chalamet, for as celebrated as he is, and the Globes really like him because they nominated him for Beautiful Boy, right, right, and Wonka, he's actually never gotten his director in. And I don't I can't I couldn't think of a more appropriate time for him to get his director in than for Marty Supreme because he may eventually win the Golden Globe this time. Yeah, right. So that makes that made sense for us in terms of if we had to get rid of one Marty Supreme or Sentimental for director, right? Maybe that's why it makes sense to stick with Marty. Right, 100%.

SPEAKER_00: 2:28:59

Yeah, um, for the best screenplay category, the Golden Globe is only have one screenplay category. Um, and there's some interesting history about the movies that make it in here. Uh, we're predicting uh Hamnet, one battle after another, sentimental value, Marty Supreme, and it was just an accident. I think those are five locks, I would say. And it's really just that last spot that's a little bit of a head scratcher. Will they go for Sinners and nominate that, even though again it's very spectacle driven and we're questioning if it's even gonna make the Oscar uh shortlist um in the uh original screenplay category? Or do they go for something that's a little bit more like them, which is Noah Bomb back for Jay Kelly? Um that's our spoiler, Jay Kelly. Um, we were tossing in between those two, but ultimately Sinners won out. Um we also contemplated Bogonia, uh Wake Up Dead Man, which actually, interestingly, interestingly enough, has never been nominated for the screenplay category. Um Wicked 2, uh uh Wicked for Good. I think that that should not get screenplay. Um, the first one couldn't either. Um Frankenstein and Nuremberg. Um what do you think?

SPEAKER_02: 2:30:12

It's kind of interesting because I think the reason why that was our pool was because more often than not, um like 90% of the time, I think from from what we've we've researched, um, the Golden Globe screenplay category kind of feeds off the best picture comedy and the best picture drama categories. Right. Um, and I think these were the best contenders we can think of. I do think that the Jay Kelly one, again, talk about movies that were designed specifically to appeal to the Golden Globes. This seems to me like um like it could easily trump Sinners because of just the more speculative nature of spinners, excuse me, of Sinners. Um, I think there's also this aspect sometimes of the way the Golden Globe voters vote, which is they kind of divide it between, okay, well, what film is more directed and what film is more written? And I think they may end up saying that Jay Kelly is a more written film and Sinners is a more directed film, right? Right. And so I think it's gonna be close. Um I I wouldn't be shocked about about Bogonia. Um, Nuremberg would make sense as well. Again, Frankenstein, I think they would argue is more directed than written. Right. Um uh we didn't really mention it, but it's not because it's not really you know our finalist for picture for us. But if weapons get in here, that'd be a huge, yeah, huge gap. Huge. Um, but yeah, I think it's a solid lineup and watch out for Jay Kelly.

SPEAKER_00: 2:31:30

Okay, the Golden Globes have a best score category. So um we're predicting Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamlet, K-pop demon hunters, because animated films tend to do really well here and get nominated for uh Golden Globe original score nominations. Um Marty Supreme, and then we're gonna go with F1. Um, I feel pretty good about this list. Uh, I know Marty Supreme and Hamlet and Frankenstein and Sinners seem like the best bets, but we feel good about uh an animated film and which better one than K-pop Demon Hunters. And F1, I think, is going to be a dark horse to watch for the Oscar nominate nomination for original score. And it feels like the kind of thing that they would embrace here in this category as well. Our spoiler is that they're going to leave out one battle after another. Um, so that's our spoiler. Avatar three, could it possibly again Diminishion Returns only land a nomination here? We considered it. House of Dynamite. Uh, the composer was just here last year for Conclave. Um, Bogonia, uh, and we also considered the Testament of Anne Lee, but ultimately it felt like those six were pretty strong for us.

SPEAKER_02: 2:32:37

I mean, I think the edge here could potentially be for Testament of Anne Lee in the sense that Daniel Blumberg won the Oscar and did not win the Golden Globe. Right, right. And that may bother them and they may feel like they gotta they want to do over there. Um, House of Dynamite, um, they were nominated, I believe, for Conclave. Um but if if House of Dynamite goes over in a big way, that could end up happening. And I don't think that the way of water is gonna be completely blanked. I refuse to believe that it's gonna go from best picture winner in 2009 to best picture director nominee in 2022 to absolutely nothing, unless maybe they didn't get a chance to see it, but I doubt that that's the case. Although maybe it is the case, I don't know, but I I doubt it. Um, and and if so, I fully expect Avatar to get in something, and so it may end up getting into original score because there may be room for it. Um, I do wonder, like if, for example, uh the music of Marty Supreme, you know, because it's a less known uh uh musician, composer, they may hold that against uh the film so that that could happen. But I think it's a strong lineup, and I really like the inclusion of of K-pop Demon Hunters and the nomination there would be massive um because it just lets you know how how favorite it is among among the animated films this year. Um, and they do track animated films do track well at the Golden Globes. So that makes a lot of sense, right? All right, so and if you look at the original song category, there's some overlap, significant overlap. So um you should see uh Sinners nominated for I Lied to You. Um K-pop Demon Hunter should get in here for Golden, uh Wicked for Good should get in for Girl in the Bubble. Um F1 uh should get in, and we're actually pegging it to get in twice. I think um uh we're sort of thinking that it's gonna get in for just keep watching, and um, it's gonna be close um because the edge shearing track may be very tempting for Golden Globe uh voters, but I think we're gonna give the edge to uh lose my mind. Um so after that, I think this is the only spot left that we have for Avatar, Fire and Ash. And so we're gonna go ahead and predict it here.

SPEAKER_00: 2:34:40

Um even though again Miley Syers was just on it, I believe, last year.

SPEAKER_02: 2:34:44

Yeah, for the last showgirl, which actually didn't end up qualifying for the Oscar. Maybe she will have better luck this year. But for for now, we're thinking um Dream has one from Avatar Fire and Ash. And I like the idea that it didn't get zero, that it didn't get nothing. Right. Um, and again, they may shelve the entire diminishing returns theory this year. Um, so we'll see what happens. But until that, you know, I do think at least it gets something, and I I prefer that than a complete shutout. Right, right. Um, the spoiler here I think is uh Clothes by the Sun, which is from Testament of Anne Lee. And again, it could be another sort of do-over for Daniel Blumberg, who's credited here. And if Testament of Anne Lee goes over in a big way, and right now we have actress and director, but if that somehow becomes picture director, actress, you could certainly very easily see a song getting in there, possibly over another F1 song. Um, we talked about um, for example, there's a song from Heda and Hilder um was on that track. Um, uh Kander and Eb are on a new track from Kiss of Spider-Woman. I think that's eligible. Wicked for Good has another track, um, but we still have not nearly as exactly not nearly as notable. And we do we don't want too many nominations for it, it just doesn't make sense. Um Sinners has another track, and F1 has the third, but I think we're we would have a solid lineup there.

SPEAKER_00: 2:36:05

Okay, and next we have Animated Feature. What are we thinking?

SPEAKER_02: 2:36:09

I mean, it's kind of an interesting lineup. I think the Golden Globes have recently had some really interesting creative choices. Um, they were one of the first groups that adopted Mamuro Hosada for um Murai, which ended up getting a nomination in 2018. Um, so I think we might get some innovative choices. I think K-pop Demon Hunters is a lock here. Utopia 2 is a lock here. Yeah, Arco should do well here, especially with the backing of a name like Natalie Portman. But do keep in mind that something like Robot Dreams did not get in here for Neon. Right. They did get in for Flea, but Robot Dreams, which was nominated for an Oscar, didn't get in here. But considering that the lineup is kind of thin this year, Arco should get in. If there isn't, it could be a little bit of a red flag. But I think Mamoro Hosada should be in there again for Scarlet, which is coming from Sony. Anime had a huge year this year. Um, but they did nominate Mirai Mirai, and they were one of the first to nominate Mirai, so I can only imagine that they would be excited to nominate Scarlet. Um so look for that to happen. Elio should get in despite having a uh an atrocious start, um, an atrocious year, really, in terms of what it made at the box office. Um, but it is Pixar, and Pixar does really well here. Um, a snub would be very, very, very bad for Pixar. And what if this were a more competitive lineup, there's very a lot of very real reasons to think that LDO wouldn't make the cut, but that's not the case.

SPEAKER_00: 2:37:32

Um yeah, the last time that they were snub in this category was uh finding Dory in 2016. Exactly, exactly.

SPEAKER_02: 2:37:38

So like they they even got into this category for um the good dinosaur, right? Um, so I don't think that they have ever, Pixar has ever been nominated um for an Oscar for an original film of theirs, you know, not IP, you know, not like Toy Story 2 or 3 or whatever, um, without first having been nominated at the Golden Globes. So it's very difficult to think that Elio would be snubbed here and could still have a shot at the Oscar. Um I think it could be snubbed elsewhere, but I think Elio absolutely needs to get this. Right. Um, and if it doesn't, it's a huge red flag. Um you you were talking about um finding Dory in 2016 was the last time they were completely snubbed and and didn't get nominated. It didn't and it didn't get nominated exactly that year. They were completely absent from the Oscar race. Um and so we have one spot left. Um, and there's a bunch of interesting movies, you know. Like I said, they'll make innovative choices sometimes, um, especially like on the indie side. And so um look for maybe a movie like Endless Cookie to get some traction, which is which came out of Sundance, had a had a good day at Independent Spirit Awards, uh Olivia in the Clouds, um, Dog of God from Latvia. Latvia, um, that that could end up making a dent here. Um, In Your Dreams from Netflix has some some good ink. Um Little Amelie was a favorite at Cannes, and it would be great if it gets in here. If it doesn't get in here, I think that might be a little bit problematic, uh, depending on who's in that spot instead of it. A Magnificent Life from France. Um, it's being distributed by Sony Classics, and he has been nominated here before, I believe. Triplets of Belleville, um, the illusionists. So it would make sense to include him, but the movie's kind of quiet right now. I think ultimately uh what makes the most sense is for them to go with what is essentially a global phenomenon in Najal 2, um, uh which didn't qualify for the Oscars for some reason. But it would be interesting because it would make the sixth film sort of uh uh incapable of getting an Oscar nomination. So it would still make it a very tight race for whoever's coming in fifth, um, and those movies that are left over that I mentioned. But I do think that they'll go ahead and take advantage and with this then lineup, go ahead and give the nomination to Nay Shah too. Right. Yeah. Uh if there is a spoiler, I think the spoiler would be. Bad guys, too, because DreamWorks historically does well here. They're just coming off that nomination for the Wild Robot. Right, right. Um, and they didn't nominate the first one, but I do think that they're at least gonna watch a DreamWorks production. Right.

SPEAKER_00: 2:40:13

And then we go to the final category, which is best international film, our predictions.

SPEAKER_02: 2:40:18

And there's a lot of international films that we're sort of pegging for like bigger races this year, which makes this a little bit easier to fill out. And if any of them misses, it's gonna be certainly noticeable notable and it's gonna you know stir up some conversation. But the films that you should absolutely see here um is It Was Just an Accident, Um, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent. I think those are absolute locks. Um then you have no other choice, which I feel like is the fourth neon film, which could be a little bit risky. We're talking about this year, Neon's gonna try to get all five of the foreign language film nominees. Can they even do that? The Golden Globes, whether they can or whether they can't, can dictate a lot as to whether they're able to replicate it at the Oscars. Um, no other choice, I think, is the one that is is most risky because we have sentimental and just an accident in picture, and we're very confident about Wagner Moore and the secret agent. No other choice has the riskier bid for Li Byeongun um because of the history of that category um of foreign language uh performances. But in this category, they tend to have at least one veteran. And right now, that's the biggest thing going for No Other Choice and Park Chan Muk is that he was a nominee for decision to leave 2022, even though they don't love him or adore him like Pedro Moldovar because he was not nominated for the handmaiden, right? Um, but at least for decision to leave, he has that previous nomination. And if you look at the lineup ahead of him, Kleber uh for secret agent and hooking trier for sentimental and Panagi for just an accident, they've never been nominated before, so it'll be their first nomination. Yeah, and some of the lineup that's left to consider also hasn't has never had a nomination before. So it's like, do we need a veteran in this? Exactly. Do you need a veteran? And if so, I think it has to be Park John Wood for no other choice. And so that's four spots taken. I think a good movie to peg here, and I think it's kind of in a pretty important place for it to show up, is the voice of humor job. Yeah, um, which was a favorite out of Venice, is a very timely film, but also like just having not seen it, understanding sort of what it's about, its subject matter, and the way it's formatted, it feels like something that would really appeal to Golden Globe voters. So I feel like this is a very important spot for it to show up. Um, it helps that I think plan B is is part, you know, part of the team behind this.

SPEAKER_00: 2:42:39

Yeah, um, so as of now, we're considering it a dark horse for our best pictures.

SPEAKER_02: 2:42:43

Yeah, it's lurking. Absolutely. And and so if it doesn't get in here, I think that's a red flag. Yeah, um, and then with one spot left, you kind of look at the rest of the field, and they're they all sound pretty good. Um, the President's Cake Um looks good. Surratt has to be a favorite again from Neon, but can Neon get a fifth movie in? Uh Late Shift has its fans, all that's left of you has its fans. Um, I think we came down to two, and one of them was the movie film Sound of Fallen, which you liked a lot. I loved, yeah. Um and uh the other was Left Handed Girl, which you also saw at Cannes, right? And um was from Netflix. Yeah, Netflix does well, and Netflix tends to do well here, but at the very end, we gave the edge to the Argentinian selection, which is Belen, right? Um, because again, it's a timely film, um, based on a true story. I had really good critics, really strong critics so far. And audiences are responding to it. Audiences are responding to it. Um, it also has Amazon behind it, and I think that that may be the difference. So I kind of think one of the streamers should get in there, right? Technically, they're all streamers, whether it's Belen, Left-handed Girl, or Sound of Fallings, but I think the whole like true story of Belen is gonna give it the edge. And so our sixth spot is Belen, and so we got um it was just an accident, sentimental value, the secret agent, no other choice, the voice of humor job, and Belen. And our spoiler is actually gonna be left-handed girl because Netflix they tend to do well here, right? Yeah, so that's what we're thinking there. Now, I do think like I think that wraps up our predictions for the Golden Globe. So there are like a handful of films that you know, if you're a fan of them or a fan of the films, fan of the performances, they should do well here. Um, and so you don't do well here. If they don't do well here, they're a little bit of a red flag. So that's something to look out for. And and films like that, we've already mentioned them at the top. You know, they include House of Dynamite, Nuremberg, Bradley Cooper's film is this thing on Rental Family Should Do Well Here, Songsung Blue, Um, uh The Smashing Machine, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Roofman, Christy, After the Hunt, uh, even something like Rosemead or or Eleanor the Great. You know, you want those films to, you know, pick up a little bit of momentum here, because this is probably their best shot. Um, considering how you know the race is sort of solidifying around like maybe five or six really standout movies. Yeah. Um, and so we'll see. I mean, let's hope they have the day that they're looking for. Begonia is another film that I think absolutely was designed for Golden Globes, and it needs to get in here if he even wants a shot of cracking the the last two spots and best picture or something like that. Right. Um, that's true. So we'll see what happens. Um, we'll see what happens, and we'll see how many of these we get right, and and we'll uh talk about it next week.

SPEAKER_00: 2:45:30

Yeah, and uh we'll have these posted on our Twitter as well, and possibly an article. We'll also post our predictions for the critics' choice. Um, we'll have a post on Twitter and also possibly an article as well.

SPEAKER_02: 2:45:43

And LA's coming out, I think, in the weekend. We'll try to do something.

SPEAKER_00: 2:45:46

Next time we see we gather, you know, we'll be able to talk about what made the AFI list of the top films on AFI, uh, who won the LAFCA, we'll react to the Golden Globe nominees. They'll be out by Monday. Um, and yeah, a lot of stuff happening. A lot of stuff happening.

SPEAKER_02: 2:46:03

Yeah, so very exciting month um coming up.

SPEAKER_00: 2:46:05

And also, we'll be updating our predictions. Yeah, and uh, hopefully soon you'll be seeing the updates along with the updates for all the critics groups that are coming out. So look out for that. And uh remember to follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon and our website, framesandflicker.com. It's on the cover art. Um, and that's it for this episode.

SPEAKER_02: 2:46:25

Yeah, until next time then. It's been a pleasure.

SPEAKER_00: 2:46:31

The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP colon forward slash forward slash Creative Commons.org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.

SPEAKER_02: 2:47:01

Disclaimer The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.