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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2025-2026: Golden Globe Nominations Reaction; Predicting the Oscars Shortlists
| Follow us on Twitter: @AcademyAnon |
| Visit our website for more coverage: FramesAndFlicker.com |
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and Rose Byrne build momentum at the Los Angeles Film Critics Association
- The Critics Choice Awards snub IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT, THE SECRET AGENT and NO OTHER CHOICE in favor of Hollywood misfires JAY KELLY and WICKED: FOR GOOD
- The Golden Globes nominate five international films for Best Picture - will the Oscars follow their lead?
- Richard Linklater crashes Best Picture Comedy or Musical at the Golden Globes - TWICE!
- Dwayne Johnson, Emily Blunt and THE SMASHING MACHINE prepare to mount a comeback at the Golden Globes
- Lee Byung-hun and NO OTHER CHOICE make Golden Globes history
- The cast of ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER ties for most Golden Globe acting nominations
- WICKED: FOR GOOD snubbed for Best Picture at the Golden Globes and officially in trouble at the Oscars
- Did A24 and Timothée Chalamet miscalculate the release of MARTY SUPREME? Film underdelivers at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes
- AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH can’t squeeze into Best Picture at either Critics Choice or Golden Globes; Is James Cameron in store for a snub at the Oscars?
- NUREMBERG fails to seize opportunity with Golden Globe nominations, are its Best Picture hopes dashed?
- Neon campaigns to make historic gains in the Oscars shortlist categories with mentions for Score, Sound, Casting, and Cinematography
- Blockbusters F1, WICKED: FOR GOOD, and AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH aim for a comeback with Oscars shortlist reveal
- SINNERS duels ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER for Oscars shortlist dominance
Hey everyone, and welcome to another episode of the Academy Anonymous Podcast, where we're keeping track of all the news pertaining to the Oscar race. It's um December, almost mid-December, so we're really in the thick of it. As always, I'm your co-host Joseph.
SPEAKER_00:And I'm Jules. And we've got a lot to go over in this show. But before we start, just a reminder uh please follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon and our official website, framesandflicker.com. Both of those are listed on the cover art for the podcast. Um, and yeah, so we've had a lot of critics groups this last week come out with their uh winners, some nominations. One of the big ones that we didn't cover last week because we had posted before they were out, were the LAFCA winners, Los Angeles Film Critics Association. And they're one of the three most reputable, most well-regarded uh critics groups. Um, the other two being the New York Film Critics Circle, uh, which we went over in our last episode, and the National Society National Society of Film Critics, which is kind of a combination of the two. Um, a lot of the members repeat. Overlap, overlap, exactly. And so the LAFCA winners were uh very interesting, very good winners. Um, obviously, one battle after another, one best film, and obviously, if you're keeping track of these precursors, it's one the majority of them, and we expect that to continue before this started. I think we had mentioned that we believe one battle is sort of gonna sweep um throughout these critic troops and into the major precursor awards. Um, the runner up was a secret agent, which was very interesting. Um, especially once we are gonna go over soon the Golden Globe nominations did very well there as well. Um, this group in particular was a little bit lighter on Jafar Panahi, and it was just an accident. I found that interesting. But sometimes I think that you know these uh major critics groups are a little bit reactionary, so I think they wanted to do something different from the New York film critic circle. They are certainly, certainly reactionary, absolutely. Exactly. So the runner-up was a secret agent for director, was PTA one battle after another, and the runner-up was Ryan Kugler for Sinners. Um I think you and I had predicted that uh they were gonna that this uh critics group was gonna sort of decide between Sinners and one battle for these major top top awards.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, very much LA is is kind of uh an organization, a critics group that will embrace um big blockbusters, um, maybe even ten pole movies, studio movies, as long as they feel that they have excellent creative and artistic merit. Sinners certainly qualifies. We thought it was the runner for picture, obviously not. I mean, in regards to the Jafar Panahi thing, it's interesting because you know, in for the New York Film Critics Circle, he had a good a good showing there um after a great night, a great night at Gotham. But both the New York film, the both the New York Film Critics Circle and the LA Film Critics, neither of those went crazy for no bears. You know, it wasn't until the National Society of Film Critics sort of stepped up and was reactionary and gave it, you know, its due inventions for director and pictures. So I'm not surprised that Jafar Panahi Panahi hasn't done that well here. Um, and even that he didn't win, you know, best picture at New York Film Critics Circle either. I think the area where we should wait to see Panahi maybe win more than one award, including director or picture, if he's going to be able to pull it off, would be at the National Society of Film Critics. Um, where you're right, there is significant overlap between New York and LA. And again, one of the big reasons why we um discuss these groups so much is number one, because we think they have authentic choices, um, interesting choices, um, great recommendations tofer films to check out if you haven't yet. Really good taste, great taste, um, curated taste. Um, but I I also think that they are certainly influential, you know, as as far as these things can even claim to be influential, you know what I mean? And I do think they stand apart from what is, you know, at at a certain point, just another drop of water in the pail, you know, when when all these other critics groups start announcing their winners, and you'll hear the same names being read out over and over and over again, and almost like a consensus form. So I think these three groups are sort of separate from all that.
SPEAKER_00:Well, I think I think that's very true, but I think that when the groups, these three, rally around a film, I think they're able to push it into the awards conversation and even get to the big prize and get an Academy Award nomination for Best Picture. We saw that with Draft My Car, it happened earlier on in 2009 with the Hurt Locker. So they're really good at pushing a film, rallying around a film and getting it noticed. But I think they're not as good, unfortunately, as um, they're not as good getting certain contenders, you know, outside of Best Picture super well into the race. Uh, for example, I'm thinking about Marianne Jean-Baptiste, who last year won all three uh NYFCC, Lafka, and National Side of Film Critics for Best Actress, and that still didn't materialize to a best actress nomination. Yeah, not unlike Sally Hawkins. Exactly. Sally Hawkins, I think a lucky, very unlucky Mike Lee. Um, and uh so I think that they have better luck when they rally around a film more than so, you know, acting contenders, for example.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I think that's a I think that's a solid point. I would almost wager also that one reason why it's difficult, like that's been a very particular thing for Mike Lee and Mike Lee's the performances in Mike Lee films, Sally Hawkins, Brian Jean-Baptiste. Um, and I almost wonder if something that's missing there is just broader support from the UK block of voters, which obviously I don't think subscribed to the New York Times or the Los Angeles Times, where both these critics' groups will print out their winners to in the same degree as you know, US um based voters uh at the Academy.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um it was interesting that you had said the secret agent thing because it had won those two awards at New York, and so now Secret Agent is the foreign film winner in New York and the actor winner in New York, and is actually the best picture runner up at LA over something like Jafar Panahi's. Right. It was just an accident. I think that's incredibly interesting, right?
SPEAKER_00:Especially once, again, we're gonna get to it, the Golden Globes. We see uh more strength for uh for that film. Uh for best lead performance. Um they do a combination. Uh it's not just the best actress or best actor. And so they gave it to Rose Byrne for If I had Legs I'd kick you, and Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon, and the runners up were Timothy Chalamet for Mighty Supreme and Wagner Moore for This A Great Agent. On the note that I had we had just finished speaking about, I you and I have predicted, and so far I think we've we've predicted correctly that Rose Byrne is going to be the critic starling. She's gonna win the majority of the best actress prizes. I we certainly think that she's gonna win all three of the top three. She needs to. Um, right. And and so that's not a surprise to us, even though if you look on film Twitter, everyone is pretty shocked. But it just seemed to us like a very obvious, you know, uh critic starling best actress winner. Um it I'm a little bit surprised, I think, that I saw her win the NBR. I think they would do something. I thought that they would might do something different, but obviously she's showing her strength, and she's certainly showing that the critics are really pushing for that nomination to happen. Obviously, she clearly deserves to be nominated. It's an it's an incredible performance, one of the best of the year.
SPEAKER_01:They're also A24 people with Salvia.
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. And so um, so that's not a surprise for us. I was actually a little bit more surprised by the Ethan Hawk win for Blue Moon. It was a bit surprising. Um, I you and I correctly predicted that it wouldn't be Timothy Chalamet, since I think he already won this award, I believe, for Call Me by Your Name. I think, if I'm not mistaken, I think he won the best actor award. Yes, um, so we didn't think that he was gonna win this again. Um, Ethan Hawk, though, I believe he won this same award for First Reformed. So they're not beyond uh, you know, giving uh multiple wins to the same actor. Um and uh I think that's a very big get for Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon. Um and interestingly enough, you know, we thought Wagner Mora was gonna be like the Rose Burn and get all three. Um, and so you know he's he missed the the uh the laugh guard. I think part of that is reactionary because they gave the win to so they couldn't repeat the same winners from NYFCC, so they had to choose either we're gonna give it to Rose Byrne or we're gonna give it to Wagner Mora. Yeah. And they chose Roseburn. And, you know, if it if that choice was made thinking that Rose Byrne needs it more, it's because that's true. Roseburn does need it more.
SPEAKER_01:I I a hundred percent agree. And I also think on top of that, it's a little bit of the understanding of I can always put the secret agent as my runner up for best picture or possibly best picture or in any other category versus Roseburn. You know, she's kind of like carrying the load for any kind of recognition that you're gonna give Mary Bronsteen's film.
unknown:Right.
SPEAKER_00:And you know, I think that you you you bring up a very good point. You brought up a very good point that the more prizes that Rose Byrne wins, you know, the better it is for her campaign, obviously, but also the more egregious the snub. Right. So I think that the critics are right in trying to position this to be, you know, such a you know uh a glaring snub if it does get snubbed, because she needs that being the film's only thing. Right. Um, and she can easily, do not be mistaken for one minute, she can easily get snubbed from the final five at the Oscars. This is not the kind of movie they tend to nominate. This is not the kind of movie that falls in their comfort zone. Um I think if voters saw the film, they would certainly be impressed by Rose Burns' performance. Again, it's a great performance and certainly worthy of this recognition, but it's just not going to be their cup of tea. And as we've seen several times in the academy, uh oftentimes it falls on do they like your movie?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:And this is not going to be an easy movie for them to love.
SPEAKER_01:This is very much the critics sort of pushing the issue and uh insisting that voters take the performance seriously and take the film seriously, and really trying to boost the film's chances and Rose Burns' chances. But make no mistake about it, this is the kind of performance that can get everything, every critic's award, and and you know, get a nominator for all the big televised events and still miss out. Um, I think it's fascinating that you came up with that reference about Ethan Hawke just a minute ago because no better example is there about that than Ethan Hawke when he had all the critics sort of backing him for first reform and he's a former nominee. Right. You know, he's a a two-time former nominee. Right. And that film still got in for Paul Schrader's screenplay. Right. And so that's not like he wouldn't have been by himself. He would not have been by himself, and it's not like he's um in the in a film from a writer that is uh unknown or um and not not well exposed with the academy. And so even with all that, they still said I can leave Ethan off for this performance. Exactly. You know what I mean?
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. And so again, do not be surprised if she gets snubbed. Let's hope that that doesn't happen. And the more again, more wins that there are she has, the more tally, you know, the more wins she has under her belt, the better off. She her campaign needs this, as you were saying.
SPEAKER_01:Like her campaign, like started on desperation mode. And it's good to see that everyone has you know gotten that note and is making the appropriate adjustment and pushing her for as many wins as she can get.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, but also let's be clear, you and I are of the opinion, and again, you know, we'll we'll be posting about this. And you know, if it happens, we called it here. You and I are of the opinion that Rose Byrne will miss the sag. She will not be nominated for best actress at the SAG. It would be a big shocker and surprise to a lot of people because she's winning all these critics rush, but that doesn't mean diddly squat for these sag committees that are voting on the nominees. A lot of times what matters is that I like the movie.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, this is the big hiccup for Rose Byrne, is not getting into that sag and um and also and also very likely not being nominated for the BAFTA either. Yes.
SPEAKER_00:So um right now you're seeing the momentum, um, and you're seeing the critics choice, whatever, and you're seeing the golden globe. But those were the ones that she stood best, uh the best opportunity to get. Right. The next two will be her biggest.
SPEAKER_01:You're about to see, I think, the resistance to the nomination. And I think, you know, even Rose Byrne, with as many years as she has in the industry and having worked with as many people, she her she's gonna suffer at the SAG with the SAG committee by virtue of a very limited cast, yeah, right, where she, if you haven't seen the film yet, you know, she's very much at the center of almost every single frame. Right. And that is going to bother, I think, some voters. Some voters are gonna think it's amazing acting, and some voters are gonna say, Well, where are the other actors?
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:You know, that's almost like there's there's too much acting and there's too much Rolls Byrne, and I just it's not what it what I would like my acting nominee to do.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And you know, I do think that would I be completely shocked if she doesn't miss the sag? Not really, because I do think at the end of the day, she is an actor that's worked with many other actors and that she's very well liked, and she and her talents are are are respected and valued. So I won't be shocked if she doesn't miss it, but I'm fully expecting her to miss it. I guess maybe when you were speaking right now, I thought about someone like um Demi Moore, who got who still got nominated for The Substance, even though again that's not really a SAG kind of movie, and obviously it was the only nomination the substance even got. Margaret Qually couldn't get in to the supporting actress five uh for a reason. Um, but I don't know. I feel like again, I guess just uh the the undercurrent, the under layer of the substance maybe was a little bit more potent that helped Demi Moore get to the finish line there with that committee. I think so. Right, but this film doesn't have that, even though I again it's it's it's sort of uh uh exploration of you know uh motherhood and trauma and distress is very real and very well done. I still think it's a very uncomfortable sit.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Um, so I'm not sure how that's gonna pan out. Well, rather, we're predicting that snub, we'll see if it happens or not. Um, and about Ethan Hawke, I find it very interesting giving him the win. Um, because some people have started to position the or or to possibly, you know, just put it out there that maybe Ethan Hawk could muster a win at the Golden Globes. Uh, again, we'll get to the Globes very shortly with his performance in Blue Moon, and maybe he is gonna be the winner of the best actor category if he gets nominated. And while I definitely, while I don't believe that to be true, you and I have said from day one, and I think people are now catching on on Twitter about it, but we've we've been very firm from the beginning that this is a race between Timothy Chalamet and Wagner Mora for the Secret Agent. I think there it makes sense that Ethan Hawke could become the de facto leader of the group because in that group he's you know uh he stands out as a veteran actor who has yet to get an Oscar win. Whereas Timothy Chalamet has three nominations, or he would have three with Marty Supreme, but he's so young. Wagner Mora, it's his first nomination, Leo already has one. You know, he stands out as an actor who's due his flowers, right? Um, but I just think that those two other films, The Secret Agent and Marty Supreme, have more muscle than Blue Moon in general. At least that's my initial impression. And that's gonna help them, you know, be able to fight for the win.
SPEAKER_01:I would agree with that. I think one thing to be aware of though is that Ethan Hawk is certainly in the most, you know, conservative Oscar voter package, right? In the performance he's giving and the role that he's uh playing. Um, so that could certainly help him against either of those uh two performances. But the other thing I'll say is that not only was it a a good mention for Blue Moon that Ethan Hawk win at uh Los Angeles, but it got another massive, massive mention at the Golden Globe, which we'll talk about later. Right. But between those two things, I certainly see momentum picking up here for that film. Let's see if it's gonna meet any resistance along the way, or if we're gonna see a few more surprise mentions that I would be interesting to see.
SPEAKER_00:I certainly think people who are even considering that uh Ethan Hawk is not a likely nominee, I think you're crazy because I think he again, this these sorts of wins show his strength, but also the category needs a real life figure. You know, he was snubbed for first reform. He's just in the right packages you were saying that certain academy voters are going to respond to. Right. So I feel like I would be shocked if he doesn't get nominated.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, he should get, I think he should be pretty close to perfect to getting that nomination. Exactly.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, and as I said, the runners up were Timothy Chalamet for Meyer Supreme and Wagner Moore for the Secret Agent. For the supporting performances, which I think, you know, um were very interesting and and and and supporting actors in in in particular is very chaotic. I was wondering if Amy Madigan was going to be able to pull off a win here again. Um after New York. Right. Uh, even though again I was sensing that it was gonna be hard for her to win here because the num the winners are looking too much like New York New York, you know, Wagner Morrow, Roseburn, Amy Madigan. And so the winners were still in Skarsgard for sentimental value, and finally Tayana Taylor wins one of the big ones for her performance in one battle after another. She needed it. Uh, yes, and uh the runners up were Inga Ipstottira Lillias for sentimental value and Andrew Scott for Blue Moon. And I have to say, I was really happy about the Andrew Scott mention because I think he's so good in that movie. I would even say that I I I responded a little bit more to his performance personally than you know, uh Ethan Hawk's, which is strange to say because Ethan Hawke is such a you know uh a cornerstone of that film. Um, but I thought he was just magnificent. Um, very interesting to see uh the mention for Inga in this uh in this category. I think that we have you if you're keeping track of the precursors of these critics' groups, she's getting much more mentions mentions than Al Fanning. You see the movie that makes sense because she has more meat in the film than Al Fanning does. She has more scenes, she plays more of a pivotal pivotal part in this, you know, uh family of uh a father and two daughters. You know, um Al Fanning is you know uh uh sort of uh extra dressing in the piece. Um but uh we'll see what happens there because you and I, and and we'll hopefully talk about this in further in this episode or another episode, you know, the supporting actress category has the opportunity uh has the very likelihood of having you know uh two uh two nominees double up from the same film, but is uh is that gonna end up being sentimental value or is that gonna end up being something like more from like uh one battle after another? It's a little bit up in the air right now.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I think it's interesting because Inga, I think so far is more of the critic's darling in between the supporting performances of sentimental value. But I always thought that Al Fanning was gonna have the edge at the more um at the at the televised events where they're gonna be paying attention to who has the bigger name and who has the longer career.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, um so again, we expect we expect, and we'll see if we're right or wrong, but one of our calls is that we expect Inga to miss the sag, right? So not get nominated the sag and it'd be only Elfanning.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, at the same time, I I personally expected Inga to miss the Golden Globe, and so her appearance there is a good one, is is a sign of strength.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Uh for best screenplay, it was Jafar Panahi, it was just an accident. One of the very few mentions that we get of Jafar Panahi, and the runner up was Ava Victor for Sari Baby.
SPEAKER_01:Which we were maybe sort of toying with.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, we were toying with it, and I have to say, at the end, when we were doing our research predicting this, we saw that the Alafka winners here for screenplay. Have a terrific track record uh for their winners in this category of best screenplay getting a nomination. And when we were really wrestling with the possibility of you know predicting Ava Victor for Sorry Baby, we really were thinking, whoa, you know, what if Ava Victor wins uh best screenplay here? Then we're pretty much uh she should get a nomination for best original screenplay because the winners here do tend to get nominated for original screenplay.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_00:Um, and lo and behold, they gave it to a more a safer pick for original screenplay like Jeff Arpanae.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, which is a little bit of a shame, but I will say, like, with that original screenplay category sort of being as thin as it is this year, it's still a great mention for sorry, baby to run her up here.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um, for best cinematography, I thought that was interesting. They gave it to Train Dreams and the runner-up of Sinners. We predicted that Sinners would be the winner. I certainly think that Autumn Archapah is the front runner for cinematography for her work in Sinners. Um, but it's interesting that they went with uh a a different, a different uh mention here, even though I think that that that contender Adolf Veloso is certainly can uh positioning himself you know as a strong candidate for the Cenatari category.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER_00:Uh production design uh went to Cinners and the runner-up was Frankenstein. I think we did the opposite. I think we predicted Frankenstein and the runner-up centers. Right. Uh best editing went to Marty Supreme, the only mention that Marty Supreme got. At least it got something. The only win. I'm sorry, the only win it got. Um, uh at least it got something, I guess you could say. But it was also the only thing it got.
SPEAKER_01:You know, we were kind of thinking it wouldn't land here in editing, even though it was a good choice, only because I think Uncut Gems did well in this category in 2019, and we thought they wouldn't want to give it the same thing.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:I wonder about that idea that it just won the same category. Yeah, it's uh a little bit of a dispassionate placement. Yeah, it's the way it looks like to me.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I get what you're saying, and especially when we put it alongside, you know, what we're gonna see soon in the Golden Globes, kind of underperformed a little bit. Right.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I think Marty Supreme was supposed to come out in the winter and just own, and I have not seen the owning from Marty Supreme yet.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um, and uh the runner-up uh for that category, best editing was one bat after another. We got score correct because we predicted that Surrat would win, and it did win. Um, and the runner-up of Sinners, uh Best Foreign Film was a secret agent. The runner-up was it was just an accident. Uh documentary film, I believe we predicted my undesirable friends. I'm not positive, but I think we did.
SPEAKER_01:It was sort of I think it was the perfect neighbor, actually, but but they came really close. Right. And the runner-up was the perfect neighbor.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, best animated film, we predicted correctly. You called that it would be a little on the lead or the character of Rain. You did not predict that K-pop would be the runner-up. I told you K-pop is gonna do really well in these critics' groups. Right. The New Generation Award won to Ava Victor. We did predict that for sorry, baby. Um, and uh it was cool to see the Douglas Edward Experimental Film Award, which is always a very they always have very interesting choices. Go to Afternoons of Solitude and the work of uh Tom Anderson, which we've seen uh a few of his films as well.
SPEAKER_01:Philip Kaufman won the Career Achievement Award, which is amazing. Yes, absolutely. Um, okay, so I think that covers LA.
SPEAKER_00:Um let's move on now to uh something else that was mentioned uh since the last time we spoke, and that was that the AFI came out with their top 10. Um, you know, pretty pretty on par with what people were predicting, I think. Um it was Avatar, Fire and Ash, Begonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Bad After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams, and Wicked for Good. I think what most people were surprised by here was the strength of Train Dreams, that it continues to do well in these uh precursors or this phase one of the uh awards process. Um, and also that they found room to include both Avatar and Wicked. Two films uh or two, you know, uh franchises, I should say, that you know, certainly Wicked did not perform critically as well as the first one, you know, by a by a wide margin. And Avatar, from what we've heard, you know, the critics aren't completely out yet, right? But we've heard that it's also, you know, not as uh potent as the last two or as the first one. You know, you and I weren't big fans of the second one at all, right? Um, and some people uh don't like this one, they like this one even less.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and this is why you gotta be a fan of the New York Film Critics Circle and the Los Angeles Film Critics Association, because you know, right, there are some movies on here that are just not very good and are sort of middle of the road. Um sorry, baby is better than a lot of these movies, and so is Blue Moon.
SPEAKER_00:I think some people were surprised to see Jay Kelly here. I think that was kind of a surprise to it makes sense.
SPEAKER_01:It makes sense to see Jay Kelly, Wicked for Good, Avatar Fire and Ash, um even Bogonia on here. It makes it makes sense. That's what these things were built for. They weren't necessarily built to you know recognize you know smaller movies, more underexp uh underexposed movies, and I should also or foreign films.
SPEAKER_00:I should say that the A5 Special Award went to it was just an accident.
SPEAKER_01:But it did not go to sentimental value, right? Nor did it go to any of the other foreign contenders, foreign contenders which are showing strength. So that's kind of interesting.
SPEAKER_00:I would say that if you look at this top ten, I would predict that they would get about seven right, that they've got three wrong. If you include it was just an accident, maybe you can bump that up to eight.
SPEAKER_01:That's their average. Yeah, don't include it was just an accident. Don't I'm saying, you know, I'm saying that usually I think historically, whoever wins that award ends up making it in any way. Right. But I do think that among their ten, they do average around seven, maybe on the six on their low year.
SPEAKER_00:Um, let's talk really quickly um about uh the Critics Choice Awards, which announced their nominees. Again, we've expressed, and we even wrote an article, you know, where you're very dispassionate about the Critics' Choice Awards, you know, they're Diet Golden Globes. They're an organization that is more interested in predicting Oscars than just highlighting what they actually think was the best or what they you know uh most favored, what what they what films most spoke to them.
SPEAKER_01:It just doesn't make sense. How can you call yourself the Critics Choice Award and at the same time nominate some very you know questionable films that critics that that's what critics said. Critics said they were questionable films, not you know, exactly. So how do you how do you reconcile that? That's really it doesn't make it just really awkward.
SPEAKER_00:You know, as an organization, it lacks an identity or it lacks a good one, right? Um, and their nominees are by and large very predictable. Yeah. Um, uh as we said, if you were to look at the gold derby um uh predictions the night before, you would get 90% of the nominees. Yeah, um, and so there are very few surprises here, I will say. There are a couple. Um, I don't know if Jay Kelly was pegged to get into Best Picture, but I'll just say first Best Picture was Begonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, one about after another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, and Wicked.
SPEAKER_01:Train Dreams was the runner up, um, according to the consensus, and it was just an accident, was sort of teetering there at the bottom. Again, one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, I think it was like number 10. Exactly. It ends up not making the list. He can't help but feel that not enough, again, quote unquote, critics choice awards members, again, part of this critics uh critics group, this prestigious critics group, didn't even see it was just an accident, or not enough of them saw it, or I guess not enough of them think that it's the it's a great film to not even factor in here. Right. He also uh Jafar Panahi also missed the best director, yeah. Which I thought was surprising. Guillermo de Toro got his spot. Um, let's see, uh, and Best Actor, I think it was the six that people were mostly predicting Timothy Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Joel Edgerton, Ethan Hawk, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Mora. Um, Best Actress uh was actually one of the one of the few big surprises because I did not think that they were going to snub Cynthia Revo uh for Wicked, even though, again, as you and I have been saying, it's a very it's very apparent that Cynthia Revo is a very weak player here. Um, Wicked in general for above the line is a weak player. Um, but there's no reason for the Academy that pays attention to uh how many nominations their actors are getting, especially an actor that has gotten already two nominations in the lead category. It makes very um one of them being just last year for this same role, it makes a lot of sense that Cynthia Revo will miss the Oscar nomination for Wicked for Good. I think some people haven't uh accepted yet uh that Ariana Grande is in a similar terrain.
SPEAKER_01:Um because of awkward choices like this, like to keep Cynthia Revo off this list and still manage to place the film and best picture is incredibly awkward.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, the same thing, you know, to find room for Ariana Grande and supporting actress and sort of to say screw Cynthia Revo. That's it, it just it leaves a bad taste in the mouth. And again, these are they call they're called the Critic's Choice Award, you know, like you're not gonna get a critic that doesn't say despite the best effort from Cynthia Revo, the film is no good. Best picture nominee, Cynthia Revo gets nothing.
SPEAKER_00:Right, exactly. So um I I was surprised by that, I will say, um, and that Amanda Sayfried, who, you know, if you've seen the Testament of Anne Lee, it's you know going to appeal to a very specific kind of group of people. And I wouldn't picture the Critics Choice Awards with their snubbing Jeff Arpanahi and Best Picture and Best Director to be those groups of people that are going to respond to the Testament of Ann Lee. But I think that they see her as enough of a contender that they wanted to include her in the six, an Oscar contender that they wanted to include her in the six. So the nominees for best actors were Jesse Buckley, Rose Byrne, Chase Infinity, Renato Rinesville, Amanda Sayfried, and Emma Stone.
SPEAKER_01:The old critics' choice would have nominated seven people.
SPEAKER_00:That's right. We have to make sure that would have done sure we get at least the five in these six.
SPEAKER_01:Even if that means we nominate ten, we have to get the five.
SPEAKER_00:It was a year, wasn't that? They nominated like ten directors or something like that. They did, yeah. Oh, and people made a people made a um a point to say that that wicked, you know, not only miss actors, but it missed their best director winner from last year, which was John Chu.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. You know what? We did forget to mention something that's I suppose is going to come up later, guess when we, you know, take stock of this of this um of these nominations. Avatar did not manage to get in for directory.
SPEAKER_00:I was gonna mention I was gonna mention, I was gonna mention that that you know, as we read these nominees, you're gonna see Avatar get completely blanked, except in visual facts, oddly enough. And that's because uh it didn't necessarily qualify, didn't make any of the short lists, and so it had to uh depend on ride in votes, and clearly there weren't enough right-in votes for it to get into best picture or production design or uh any anything except visual votes.
SPEAKER_01:There were enough ride-in votes to put it in for visual facts. I mean, come on. I mean, again, they call themselves the Critics Choice Awards. All they have to do is really just change their name. If they change the name, one would be less critical about it, right?
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. Um okay, so for best supporting actor, obviously, I mean, if you've been if you've been paying attention to the race, this race has quickly solidified to six people, and those are the six that got nominated here. And the five nominees for best supporting actor will come from these six. Um, at least they should. Yes. Uh, I I firmly believe that they will. Benice Lotoro, Jacob Alordi, Paul Meskell, Sean Penn, Adam Sandler, and Stellan Skarsgard.
SPEAKER_01:I still feel Daryl Leno can make things interesting.
SPEAKER_00:Let's make things interesting. Let's see if he gets a SAG nomination. I think that's his best shot. Yeah, yeah. But still, I feel pretty confident in those six. And then best supporting actors. We have Al Fanning, Ariana Grande, Inga Ipstotier Lilius, Amy Madigan, Wumi Mosaku, and Tayana Taylor. Um, again, I think that it was possibly the top six in the gold derby. Um, I believe so. Um, I thought that, of course, Amy Madigan was definitely gonna get in here, and the two actresses from Sentimental Value, and obviously Ariana Grande and Woo Me. So, not a lot of surprises in that category. Um, I was happy to see that you and I got Best Young Actor and Actress completely right because a lot of people missed Carrie Christopher for weapons and we had him. Um, so that was kind of cool. I mean, that made sense. Uh, this category of best casting and ensemble is a weird category, you know.
SPEAKER_01:It's I guess it used to be best ensemble.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, it used to be best ensemble. Now that there's a casting category, I guess we need to have casting in the broadcast somehow. Um, and so I guess what I don't like about this category is conflating ensemble with casting because they're not synonymous, they're not the same. Um, and by putting them in the same category, I think you're you're sort of inferiorizing one and the other.
SPEAKER_01:And they should because like obviously their ensemble category was always meant to predict their sag ensemble, right? And so now their casting category should be meant to predict the Oscars uh casting category, and they will not overlap, right? 100%.
SPEAKER_00:So the casting and ensemble nominees were Hamnets, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, one bad after another, Sinners and Wicked for Good. Um, I guess in terms of ensemble and in terms of what I think a lot of people and pundits are predicting the casting nominees to be, it's not a very surprising list. I think people conflate again that the best casting category is going to include the biggest casts or the starriest casts, and that's not what's gonna happen. At least you and I firmly believe that's not what's gonna happen. What's gonna happen is the ingenuity of the casting and how well cast it uh a film is, right? Not how many uh talented actors were you able to put into a film. Right. Um, but on that, you know, you know, following that stance, their their nominees were were, I guess, predictably like that. Jay Kelly certainly comes to mind, wicked for good. Um, I think Sinners, one bat after another, and even Marty Supreme stand the best chance of getting on for best casting at the Oscars of this list. Um, I don't think Jay Kelly has uh as good of a chance, and I don't think the Hamnet has as good a chance. I'm not sure what you think.
SPEAKER_01:Um, I kind of agree with that. I kind of agree with that.
SPEAKER_00:Uh for best original screenplay, we had Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Weapons, Sorry Baby, and Sentimental Value. I think the inclusion for sorry baby here is uh another big win. Yes, a very interesting inclusion. Um, but there's somebody he missing here, isn't there? Well, I mean, it was just an accident.
SPEAKER_01:This is gonna be an overall trend, and I can't wait till we move on to the next ceremony because it's very clear here that the Critics Choice Awards was not the international critic's choice awards, it's very much the domestic critic choice awards. Um, and so there's a lot of foreign titles missing here. Interestingly enough, no other choice still made it into adapted screenplay, which is kind of fascinating.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, but it's I think a good day to see sorry baby there at the same time. I don't think you had as much of a threat to sort of weed out one of those nominations, whether it's sorry baby or one of the horror films, um, because obviously they were not going to nominate the international titles.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Uh for best adapted screenplay, we had one battle after another, Train Dreams, No Other Choice, Frankenstein, Begonia, and Hamnet. I think uh mostly that favorites to get nominated in that category, plus no other choice.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, well, they did snub Wake Up Dead Man, so that that's already sort of interesting. And they did nominate Frankenstein, which at one point, I think maybe a month ago, we were debating whether it could happen or not, even with the Toronto stat there. And obviously, it looks like the cards are piling up that way in favor of Frankenstein getting a nomination here.
SPEAKER_00:Well, I will say on that note, um, I'm glad you mentioned it because I've been I've been talking to you, you know, as of late, that if you look at the best adapted screenplay category, you know, we have three Netflix films on there. We include Train Dreams and Wake Up Dead Man and Frankenstein, which seems like a little bit too much. Um, also, there's some other films on the periphery that they might be interested in including. And instead of thinking, oh, well, they're not gonna nominate, you know, the spectacle of Frankenstein for best screenplay or train dreams they got in there just last year. Well, we should be thinking about how the academy might really be heading towards snubbing knives out because they've already nominated that franchise twice. Um, and both times it was the film's only nomination. And I think that they want something new. I think they want to see something new. I'm not sure that I see a world where both, you know, a repeat for uh the knives out franchise and a repeat for the collaborators of Train Dreams happens in the same category in the same year. Um, and I think you know, a lot of that I think has started to play out because they did very poorly in the globes as well. Um, and uh it's you know, it's got snubbed here. So I think that we're heading into this. Uh people need to be aware that we're heading to a we're we're heading to a a knives out snub at the Oscars.
SPEAKER_01:Certainly looks like you know the the gag has grown old, maybe with knives out in terms of voters, but we'll see what happens.
SPEAKER_00:Uh for best cinematography, it was I think what people by and large consider the top six plus F1. That's F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, one battle after another, Sinners and Train Dreams. Again, the favorites are Frankenstein, Hamnet, one battle, Sinners and Train Dreams. That that top five. I wonder if that'll be the top five at the end of the day. No, no, you think so?
SPEAKER_01:You know, you think I mean I I really count on my cinematographers to have, you know, a lot of individuality, uh, but they did nominate Emilia Perez here last year. Um, and I I just didn't see that coming.
SPEAKER_00:So right. I I'm most unsure about oddly enough, Frankenstein. I don't know about you. Same. You know, because Dan Dan Lauson has been there recently with uh a couple of times, yeah. A couple of times uh with Guillermo del Toro. You know, I I just not sure I see this branch jumping to another collaboration.
SPEAKER_01:Three-time nominee, Dan Lausin. I'm not sure. I'm not sure.
SPEAKER_00:I'm not sure it's yeah either. Uh best editing was F1, House of Dynamite, the only nomination I got. Marty Supreme, one by after another, the perfect neighbor, which was nice to see, and Sinners.
SPEAKER_01:Maybe the best nomination of the entire thing was the perfect neighbor being nominated here. Yeah, and one of the worst was House of Dynamite. Um, I'm a fan of a House of Dynamite, and I will I champion the film, and I think the editing is great. Um, but it's absolutely ridiculous that it only got one nomination here, and it just happened to be the editing one. Um, where you know, if you're trying to predict the Oscars, you kind of know you need a veteran here, and you you kind of are a little bit too chicken to put all your chips behind um Stephen Marion, the editor of F1.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Exactly. Uh for costume design, um, it was Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, and Wicked for Good. I actually like this list. And what I find most interesting about it is that, you know, if you look at the gold derby, you know, top contenders for costume design, and certainly in the prediction page for the Critics Choice Awards, a film like The Testament of Anne Lee was higher than some of these movies, um, and was snubbed here. And I think ultimately only got two nominations uh for best song and best actress. And I think this goes to what you and I were saying post seeing the screening, seeing the film uh, you know, a month and a half ago. Um, you were of the opinion that you know the film is so elaborate and so well done that you saw it placing in all these categories, and I told you, listen, it is elaborate, it is very well done. It's one of my favorite films of the year, and it's not coming close to anything like that. I think you were saying like six nominations. I said, You're nuts. This is a one nomination tops for best actors, and I really feel like that's cementing here.
SPEAKER_01:I reserve the right to correct my initial impression after it comes out in 70 millimeter, and American viewers, the American movie going public gets an opportunity to watch and judge it. And until that happens, I still say five to six nominations.
SPEAKER_00:Well, I mean, uh, you certainly can't argue that it's starting to look as if, you know, you know, none of these people were supposed to like it anyway. Right. Well, we'll see what happens there.
SPEAKER_01:But I will say I agree with you. I think again, second best uh couple of pair nominations this year. Uh I'm sorry, at this um at this award ceremony this year. Uh great to see HEDA here, great to see Kiss the Spider Woman here. Top, you know, very good choices. Very, very good choices.
SPEAKER_00:For production design, we have the fantastic. Like four first steps Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, and Wicked for Good. I think there's some Oscar favorites here in Sinners, Wicked, Marty Supreme, and Frankenstein. I'm still really unsure about Hamnet for this category for production design and also for Cosm design. Um, anything that you notice? I mean, I think obviously Avatar couldn't muster enough ride-in votes. I feel like these members filled out their ballot and forgot about the ride-in votes, and at the end of Visual Effects, it became apparent, like, oh shit, I forgot to forgot to write in anything for Avatar, so I better do that here in Visual Facts.
SPEAKER_01:So you should have seen enough popcorn to fill that category without Avatar. Right. Again, like have a little respect for Avatar and Hasset Dynamite. Just leave them off the list completely. Um, I will say, you know, I don't hate the mention for Fantastic Four here. I mean, some some eye candy there.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, but I think this is mostly, you know, this and Avatar is what the the race has sort of um come down to, I guess.
SPEAKER_00:Right. For best score, we have F1, Frankenstein, Hamlet, Marty Supreme, one battle after another, and Sinners. Uh I don't know if there's someone here that automatically pops out to me that's missing. I don't know about you.
SPEAKER_01:I think F1 really wants to get in here. And I think you know, Hans Zimmer kind of got screwed from Dune part two last year. Yeah. Um, although he was his work was just as good in Blitz, and they said no, also. Right. So we'll see what happens.
SPEAKER_00:Um, for best song, we had the Testament Van Lee, Clothed by the Sun. We had Drive from F1, the Achiron song. Um, I think you like the other F1 song, the one that features Doja Cat. Yeah, uh, The Girl in the Bubble from Wicked for Good, Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters, I Lied to You from Sinners, and Train Dreams from Train Dreams. Interesting to see Train Dreams here. I love seeing Train Dreams here. I think it's a beautiful song. We're huge fans of Nick Caves and Bryce Desner. Um, and uh, I actually think that I'm starting to really like the idea of Train Dreams getting an eye for best original song. I think it's gonna happen.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I mean, they got that surprise nomination for Sing Sing last year. I wasn't taking that nomination to happen and it did. So maybe they have fans in this um branch.
SPEAKER_00:Um I certainly think that when we talked about it when we were looking at our predictions, this isn't gonna be a year where any film doubles up in best song because there were enough contenders to have five, five, five unique nominees. Yeah. I mean, obviously, I guess they didn't know that you could write in Diane Warren because I think they would have done it.
SPEAKER_02:That's it.
SPEAKER_00:Uh Best Hair and Makeup, we had 20 28 years later, Frankenstein Centers, the Smashing Machine Weapons, and Wicked for Good. Very much the top six, I believe, for this category.
SPEAKER_01:I think it's the top five. I think it's great to see 28 years later there. I think it's it was some of the best makeup work all year. And um, I'm not sure it's gonna make much more noise than this, but it's great to see it there.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um, and best visual effects we have Avatar finally making an appearance F1, which I think you're very you very much don't believe in a visual effects nomination for F1. It's an awkward one. Uh Frankenstein, Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning, Sinners, and Superman.
SPEAKER_01:Missing from here is a very odd for them to skip out on that because you know Disney's gonna get in here for that, I think. Yeah, um, yeah, I'm not sure about the F1 nomination here in in the long term. And obviously, again, Avatar got enough right and votes here.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, for best sound, we have F1, Frankenstein, one battle after another, Sinners, Surratt, and Warfare. I think those two nominations were pretty pretty nice to see for Surrat and Warfare. I mean, that's what it should be. Yeah, it should be, you know, who do you want to spotlight for sound? Don't think about right, don't think about who you think is gonna get nominated. Just this is your opportunity, and you also are you're a televised program, you know. This is your opportunity to platform films and filmmakers that you know really stood out to you that you loved. Why, why would you try to predict the Oscars?
SPEAKER_01:I don't know. I I really don't know, but again, it's great to see Surratt there. It's wonderful to see Warfare.
SPEAKER_00:Surratt which will not be getting us on nomination.
SPEAKER_01:Well, you know what? It I think it's gonna give it a run for its money. I really do. I think warfare is gonna have a tougher time, but even then, it's great to see it here.
SPEAKER_00:I don't think it made the long list.
SPEAKER_01:Well, the long list haven't come out yet.
SPEAKER_00:Oh, okay.
SPEAKER_01:So we will we will discuss that hopefully later on this program.
SPEAKER_00:But I I feel like I saw Warfare miss somewhere. Maybe I'm I'm mistaken, but somewhere. Oh, the visual effects. Uh yes, that's where it missed.
SPEAKER_01:It did not make the initial um elimination for the visual effects, which is a shame.
SPEAKER_00:Um best stunt design. I think they're getting ahead of the stunt category that's coming out soon. They're trying to. Um uh ballerina, F1, Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning, Will Battle After Another, Sinners and Warfare. Um, animated feature. We have Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, K-pop Demon Hunters, Little Amelia, the character of Rain, and Zootopia 2. Very much would you say that's the top six?
SPEAKER_01:I'm not sure about In Your Dreams. I think that's a little bit further than obviously they're thinking, but I think these five, other than that, would be the favorites. Right. But I would look for an upset here.
SPEAKER_00:Right, and then best foreign language film we have Belen from Argentina. It was just an accident finally making an appearance. Left-handed girl uh from Taiwan, no other choice from South Korea, the secret agent from Brazil, and Surratt from Spain.
SPEAKER_01:So the least nominated foreign film, or one of the least nominated foreign films, is actually it was just an accident. Right. Because no other choice got two, and Surratt got two, right? Right, right. And the secret agent got two. Right. And it was just an accident got only one. Right. Very interesting.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And I'm not gonna I'm not gonna mention the nominees for best comedy because I think you know these are all uh I'll mention them.
SPEAKER_01:I think this was one of the best categories of the entire thing because because the Austrian has no best comedy.
SPEAKER_00:The reason I refrain from doing so is because these categories are placed here so they can get more um attendees at their ceremony. I think there was a moment in time, I don't know if they have it yet or not, if they still have it, but where they had best actor and best actress in a comedy, best actor, best actress in a horse, suspended best actor sci-fi, best actor, best actress in a sci-fi.
SPEAKER_01:And they had a whole ceremony at one point dedicated to superhero movies. I don't know what the hell the whole thing was. Um just add to the phoniness of it all the whole thing. Exactly. But I will go ahead and I will spotlight this category because unlike the other categories, here is some genuine opinion. Ballad of Wallace Island was nominated for best comedy, good movie. You should watch that. Eternity, they say it's very good. Um, I like the actors. I hope to watch that later. Friendship was wonderful in the most cringe way. Um, The Naked Gun, I'm okay with. Um, Finish's Scheme is one of my favorite films of the year. And Splitsport, you saw and you liked it. You thought I was alright.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Okay. So that was the critics. Not a bad category. And if we sound a little snarky about the critics tourist awards, we have very hostile opinions about that organization and what they stand for and what they should stand for. You know, we have very strong opinions of what they should stand for.
SPEAKER_01:And in their defense, I will say that they can do it because they have maybe like eight really cool nominations here: Surat, Warfare, HETA, Kiss of the Spider Woman, um, the perfect neighbor for editing. So they're perfectly capable of doing it. They just gotta actually do it.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um, and so as uh before you mentioned one of the bigger uh precursors that came out, um, you know, these uh these other smaller uh critics groups that have come out, uh uh like the Michigan uh movie critics and the Seattle Film Critics and Washington DC had their winners recently in St. Louis, um, and Indiana Film Journalists, and I believe the New York Online Critics, um, Austin Film Critics, Phoenix. So all of that um has been uh happening this week, and you will see all of that uh on our website. We're working currently on our predictions and uh our pages for these predictions and having them alongside you know the wins that all these films are getting and the nominations, um, whatever top 10 lists they make. So we're working on all of that, and hopefully that'll be up on our website very, very soon. Um, the other big uh news that happened uh recently was the nominations for the Golden Globes. We have some cool nominees there. Um some unexpected nominees. Yes, and also we'll say, as you were saying, you you insinuated earlier, you know, the uh for Hobby of Foreign Press was certainly more um uh adamant about uh spotlighting uh foreign films on foreign talent. Um so a lot of people were surprised to see the amount of uh foreign films uh included in these lists, uh, which was it was really nice to see.
SPEAKER_01:Some people some people spoke about that online about that idea of all the changes that the Golden Globes have tried to implement over the last few years after it came under extreme scrutiny, um, have really sort of started to um pay off because you're seeing more inclusive choices, more authentic choices, and certainly um you know the Hollywood Foreign Press is integrating more international films into their um slate of nominees across multiple categories, and I think a lot of people are excited about that. Um, so it's kind of like it's an interesting, I think, reverse of what we're seeing at the critic's choice and the golden globes, where one is becoming more independently minded and maybe one isn't. Um one is becoming more mainstream friendly. Um, so I I think it we you see that trend. Obviously, the Golden Globes have said, um, if you're gonna give me, you know, Jay Kelly and Wicked an Avatar, I would rather go ahead and nominate these films. And the critics' choice made the opposite choice. Um, so it'll be interesting to see which one's gonna have a um a bigger impact on on voters or how voters are gonna fall in between that debate. And I also think the other thing that I think was kind of interesting is just, you know, we'll see what happens. But I do think that last year kind of showed, at least to me, that despite everything that's happened within this sort of little awards, you know, film awards community, the Golden Globes still are influential when it comes to Oscar nominations and Oscar results. And so, like, I don't think I I think we both agree that that nomination and that win for Fernando Torres here was massive to the campaign of I'm still here. I think the nomination for Nickel Boys in Best Picture Drama last year, I think it was its only nomination. Right. It was a massive nomination, right? Um, September 5. Um, it didn't make it at the end, but down the stretch, that nomination was huge for it to make it as far as it did. Um, so I do think that we're leaning to the golden globes are still very much relevant and very much influential and can sort of paint the trajectory for uh uh uh films going forward.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And you know, not wanting to be more snarky than I've already been, but you know, I feel like the critic's choice is really desperate to be as influential as the golden globes. Some people in film Twitter be really, really believe that the critics' choice are as influential or close to as influential that voters are really looking to see who the critic's choice nominated. I don't believe that. Um, I think the reason that there's overlap between the nominations for the critics' choice and what happens at the Oscars is because they're actively trying to predict the Oscars. And so if you see, if you're a part of the Gold Derby community, for example, you know, the nominations wouldn't be much of a surprise. Um, again, it's not really because they're influencing voters, they're just, you know, uh very much trying to predict the same thing that gold derby is trying to predict. Right. Um but I certainly I agree with you 100%, you know, the Golden Globes are very influential. I think there was a moment in time where people were doubting because of the controversy that was happening, but even then, I think that voters, you know, maybe it's tradition, maybe maybe it's customary, but they're looking to see who the Golden Globe nominates, you know, these uh um these big uh this big ceremony, you know, that gets a lot of viewers.
SPEAKER_01:Televised, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:These tele this televised ceremony that gets a lot of viewers. I think voters are watching that ceremony. And so a hundred percent they are influential. And uh a get here is a big get.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_00:Um, so for best picture drama, the films that we predicted, I believe, and and weren't much of a surprise were Frankenstein, Hamnet, it was just an accident, sentimental value, and sinners. We rounded out the list by nominating what we thought was going to have a comeback here, which was Nuremberg. We were placing a lot of our chips that uh this would be where Nuremberg has a resurgence um and that that would kind of catapult it to top-tier consideration, top-tier contention for the best picture nominees.
SPEAKER_01:One of the final slots, yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Exactly. Um that didn't materialize, you know, as we were heading close, as we were getting closer and closer to the announcement, I was even thinking, you know, we're wrong here. Normburg is gonna get blanked. And the reason that I was most unsure was because I thought that we were missing train dreams. We had omitted from including it in Best Picture or Best Actor, and I really thought Train Dreams was gonna show up somewhere. You came up with an interesting stat that if a film is going to be nominated at the Oscars um for best picture, I believe, or in general for best picture and needs to show up somewhere in the Golden Globe. And so I didn't like the idea of train dreams not even showing up anywhere. And I was really iffy about um we we were always unsure about Nuremberg. Uh, and lo and behold, it didn't happen.
SPEAKER_01:I thought the topic of Nuremberg would be strong enough to get it in, as well as it making money and it having all these stars, um, it's coming from Sony Classics. Um, I think it's really, really big that it did not get in.
SPEAKER_00:Oh, and by the way, Sony Classics still did very well, yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Exactly. And so I I think it's very um uh debilitating that it did not get in here. I think it's huge, it's a huge mess. Yeah, I think, but again, if if if the Golden Globes are gonna champion these international titles, then they have to make a decision not to highlight these more sort of um these English language uh American films um that maybe just are a little bit below par. Right. Um and so I think you had to make a decision, and the Golden Globe decided to go ahead and nominate the secret agent here, which we had not pegged, but makes absolute perfect. Perfect sense.
SPEAKER_00:Especially if we think that Wagner Morrow stands a terrific chance of winning the best actor category in the drama.
SPEAKER_01:Right, absolutely. Um, and then so at the end of the day, we we still didn't see Train Dreams, which is I always thought it was gonna be too small of a film to crack this top six anyway. Um But I I do think what we saw was um yet another sign that the secret agent is a much stronger film than people think.
SPEAKER_00:Yes, a hundred percent. Um I think that if you're sleeping on the secret agent getting into the best picture uh top 10 for the Oscars, wake up because it has a serious shot of getting in. Um so half this lineup is an international film, it's a forum film.
SPEAKER_01:Exactly. Okay, it's a pretty good lineup, and the half is strictly speaking, Neon. So Neon owns half of this category, right?
SPEAKER_00:Um this was one of the big uh snubs. It was the best picture comedy or musical. Yeah, it's actually a really good list. Um but there are three is there exactly, but there are three big omissions, and if you hear our last episode, they won't be totally surprising because we foreshadowed that something was gonna happen here in this uh Golden Globe announcement. We just I guess maybe didn't think it would be in Best Picture, but basically they nominated Blue Moon, which was a surprise, and we did not we did not peg that Bugonia, which is uh uh uh you know most people predicted, Mario Supreme, another choice, uh, which I think we refrained from choosing Novo Vogue, which was a huge shock, and one battle after another. I want to say that the three films that were snubbed and were very much predicted by and large to get in here were Jay Kelly, which did not, and that felt like a total Golden Globes pick. Um Wake Up Dead Man did not get in here, and Wicked for Good did not get in here. And so, in particular, Wicked and Wake Up Dead Man, we had mentioned in our last episode that because those are continuations, those are franchises that have already been here. The trend at the Golden Globes is that we should see diminishing returns, right? We should not see the films perform as well as it did the previous. Knives Out did better than um uh Glass Onion, which should should do better than Wake Up Deadman, and lo and behold, it did. Yeah, um uh Wicked part one did better than part two, and again, that's following the trend. There should be diminishing returns, right? I think you and I thought that diminishing returns might be possibly somewhere in the acting categories, possibly somewhere else, but it was an omission in the best picture comedy or musical, and that's a big omission, guys.
SPEAKER_01:Which is actually worse, I think, because some people online had been talking about how Wicked had still had this momentum from mentions at the critics' choice and the AFI and things like the NBR. But a miss of the Golden Globes is pretty significant. Um, it's not a complete shutout like Wake Up Dead Man, which basically you know nails its chances at ever getting a best picture nomination, but it certainly does diminish them, I think, just even more. Yeah, of course. And it's just again that idea that Wicked is struggling this far down, like this this early in our discussions. I don't think it's certainly fighting strictly for a ninth or tenth spot, possibly even just 10th. And if there's enough passion for a movie like The Secret Agent, then you're gonna be in in deep trouble, right?
SPEAKER_00:And so, and also there's no musical in this category. Yeah, and we have three musicals this year. Um, one of them didn't show up at all. Wicked still got, I think, I believe four nominations, but it missed the big one. And the Testament of Van Lee could only get one nomination, yeah, for best actress. And so I think it's a very red, big red flag that a film has you know it should have been a slam dunk in this category. It's a moneymaker, it should have been here. Uh a slam dunk in this category, and the other one's a George Clooney movie, it should have been here too. So those are big red flags for those films. Um, and uh and Novo Vogue was such an inspired choice. I really didn't see that coming. I guess you can sort of predict the blue moon, possibly, because Ethan Hawk had such a good chance of getting nominated, but Novo Vogue.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, it's kind of weird because Nouveau Vogue didn't make the international film, but it's also weird because you have Richard Link ladder in there twice, which is fantastic to see. Yeah, but um, yeah, I think that adds some momentum to Nouveau Vogue, which is great. It adds a bunch more momentum to Blue Moon, like we had just talked about, and I definitely think it sucks up a little bit of the air in terms of Jay Kelly and and Wicked, for example. Um, you know, they're very much fighting for the the the final slots and best picture. Can they survive, you know, whatever enthusiasm starts to bubble up for a few movies? I mean, listen, no other choices there. And I think that is a very dangerous nomination. Again, just like the secret agent. Um it's great to see. And yeah, I I the question is where does the academy fall? Are they gonna be a little bit more um you know, nominating subpar movies that, you know, represent uh the Hollywood Hollywood system um and that make money and that people are going to be maybe a little bit form a little bit more familiar with, or are they gonna go ahead and maybe do this same thing? And like I said, if these are what is this? This is a top twelve for for the Golden Globes Best Picture, because you have six and six between drama, comedy, and musical. You know, can Neon get more than two movies into Best Picture? That's a serious I think it's a serious conversation now. Um so yeah, I I think this is a very exciting list. Um I think it's another great get for Bugonia because obviously Bugonia is enough like Bugonia is in the middle enough. It's critically acclaimed enough to still be on here and familiar enough to not necessarily feel you know to feel like if you nominate it, people are going to understand, oh well, that's the Emma Stone movie. Right, right. So I think Bugonia is in a very good spot as well.
SPEAKER_00:Strong lineup. Very, very this was probably the biggest, you know, uh surprising, the most surprising category.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. We also pitched the Avatar Way uh Fire and Afric is gonna not do well here.
SPEAKER_00:Only make song, and I believe it did make song. Yeah, I think the only thing we pitched it for. Right. Um, very, very interesting, and I think very telling of where we're headed for the Academy Award nomination.
SPEAKER_01:It'll be really, really fascinating to see if this trend holds up.
SPEAKER_00:Um, for Best Motion Picture Animated, we had Argo, Demon Slayer, uh LEO, K-pop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie, and Zootopia 2.
SPEAKER_01:And again, so you see five repeat from the critic's choice, but Demon Slayer made it, and that is great news if you're an anime fan, made massive amount of money at the box office. It's it's certainly a legit thing with just the general movie going public. The Oscar voters have no idea what the hell it is. Um, but it's great to see that the Golden Globes were open to checking it out and nominating it. Um, and so I think this certainly, you know, puts Demon Slayer higher on the the pile of movies you have to screen. I don't think they're gonna be able to keep up with it, but it's it's great to see this nomination here just for uh anime, and um we'll see if we'll see what kind of chances it has. It's it's certainly better now than it was a week ago, right?
SPEAKER_00:Um, for best foreign language film, we have it was just an accident, no other choice, the secret agent, sentimental value, serrat, and the voice of Henrajab. Um, I think it was So we get the neon five, right? We're calling it the neon five.
SPEAKER_01:We finally see uh an appearance from the voice of Henrajab, which is pretty important because it was not doing well so far. But this was arguably one of the places it had to do well because they know that you know Brad Pitt and Plan B and Rooney Marr and Joaquin Phoenix are supporting this movie, so they have to take the bait on that. If Oscar voters are gonna take the bait on that, Surratt made it in, and so you have four best picture nominees also in the uh foreign language film international film category.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Okay.
SPEAKER_00:Um, for best actor in a drama, we correctly predicted Dwayne Johnson for the smashing machine, Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, Wagner Moore for the Secret Agent, and Jeremy Allen White for Springsteen. We held off on predicting Joel Edgerton, even though again, towards the end we felt pretty bad about it. And instead, we had nominated, uh we had predicted uh someone like Russell Crowe for Nuremberg, which was a very showy part. Or maybe even Will Arnett. Yeah, or Will Arnett, uh, who gives a very good performance in Bradley Cooper's film, which got completely shut out. These were, I mean, I guess. And if you see that movie, if you see that movie, if it's very Golden Globes friendly. So, you know, it's a mission can't help but s bring up to me, you know, bring to mind the possibility that, you know, the release strategy for that film and for certain other films is poor. Yeah. But if it had been timed better, more much like Mario Supreme, if it had been timed better, possibly they would have done better in the nominations, possibly.
SPEAKER_01:Right. I mean, uh, I think they're very Golden Globes friendly, but obviously the Golden Globes are not trying to do the Golden Globe thing too much this year.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, that being said, I mean, Danny DeLewis was another one who missed out. Frenemon. I was not shocked by that. You were not shocked, but again, I do think you know, leaving Danier Day Lewis on the sidelines is not something that they normally do. Right. That being said, I mean, Russell Kroll and Nuremberg is something they would definitely not in the past life. We thought it was gonna be, yeah, we thought it was gonna be Russell and Nuremberg in picture. Obviously, Nuremberg got nothing. Um, but what's kind of interesting here is that all these guys were sort of in the periphery and they end up missing out, but they don't really miss out to like a very passionate vote getter, right? It's not like um whatever the actor from Surratt uh got in. Um it's it's Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein. No, that was a shock.
SPEAKER_00:I was absolutely shocked by that, but I have to say it's one of those mentions where like it makes perfect sense that it would get in. Yeah, you know, it does make perfect sense.
SPEAKER_01:And sort of uh, they definitely saw the movie. They like Oscar Isaac. Um, let's go ahead and nominate him. Right. But like I don't think he has, yeah, we have six spots anyway. I I don't think he has much of a shot at being nominated more than you know, for anything further than this, but I think it does sort of point out what you're saying. Like, yeah, between all those choices, I just liked Frankenstein that much more. Yeah, so I'll nominate Oscar Isaac here.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um, for best actress in the drama, a few surprises here as well, which maybe we should we shouldn't have been so surprising. The ones that weren't surprising were Jesse Buckley, Renato Rinesville, Tessa Thompson. Yeah, we thought Tessa would get in here. Thank God. Um, I will say that I was very surprised by Jennifer Lawrence making this list, even though I think she was in the predicted six for Gold Derby. Um she was at the edge. She was at the very edge of those. I think most people thought, well, they love Jennifer Lawrence. And you know what? They do love Jennifer. They freaking do love Jennifer Lawrence. But but you know, this is a nomination that's very much uh worthy, very worthy of recognition.
SPEAKER_01:She should trade in a bunch of her other nominations for this one.
SPEAKER_00:No, she's absolutely wonderful in this film. I'm so glad to see her get something. I'd love to see her get more than this. And this film in particular, like this film. This is a very non-globes film.
SPEAKER_01:This is a very like, if you're ever gonna nominate Nuremberg, you're not gonna nominate this film, right? Um, yeah, so so very unglobes friendly, globes of the past. Still great to see her here. Still great to see her here.
SPEAKER_00:Victor getting eye for sorry baby makes sense because they liked they like to highlight up and coming talent.
SPEAKER_01:It said that, but but I didn't know that sorry baby was going drama, right? What I that that made no sense to me, but I mean, listen, it's one of the absolute best nominations from the entire list. Right. It's great to see her here.
SPEAKER_00:And then and then there was someone who most people were predicting in, but we thought that was not gonna happen because I thought the film was just too weak. But that was Julia Roberts for After the Hunt, which I will say this was the globes resorting back to the past globes.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, this was very Golden Globes of you, Golden Globes.
SPEAKER_00:Um, uh, the only nomination for After the Hunt. You don't say, and I think that Julia Roberts gets gets this nomination mostly because she's Julia Roberts. Um, and those are the top six. Come on, Golden Globes. Come on. For best actor in a uh motion picture musical or comedy. We had the obvious ones. Actually, these actually, we got a few right here. Uh Timothy Chalamet, George Clooney, Leo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawk, and Lee Byeongun were the ones that we got right. Unfortunately, Tonya Tew missed here. We thought that again the Globes, you know, uh tend to favor spotlighting upcoming talent. It seemed up their alley, it didn't materialize. And Jesse Plemens got an eye for Begonia after just having been nominated last year.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, he did get a double nomination. We thought maybe Emma Stone as the solo. Right. Um, but no, it's great to see Jesse Plemens there.
SPEAKER_00:One of the things that I'm saying, Jesse Plemens' one of my favorite performances of the year, 100%.
SPEAKER_01:I love seeing Lee Bian there. I don't think anyone's making a big enough deal. As far as I've yeah, I've been able to sort of decipher it's a huge win for uh an Asian actor in this category, huge win for a foreign language performance in this category. I think it's not since the 60s that we've seen this. Um, I couldn't be happier that he's on this list. Um, I think he's a dark horse to win. Um, I think the only fat on this list is really George Clooney. I think if we had replaced George Clooney with Tona 2, this is again like the Julia Roberts thing. Like the banger list. Yeah. Can you imagine this list without George Clooney and put in Tony 2? You know, I mean, I guess we had to invite Julio Roberts and George Clooney, I guess.
SPEAKER_00:But I mean it's very golden globes of them. This was a mostly great list. Um, for best actress in a motion picture comedy or musical, I think we got this 100% right. Um, it was Rose Byrne for if I had legs, I'd kick you. Cynthia Reaver for Wicked Redeems Herself, Kate Hudson for Songsung Blue, the only nomination for Songsung Blue.
SPEAKER_01:That's right, no Hugh Jackman.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, and I think we we correctly predicted that. We we left out Hugh Jackman as well. Chase Infinity for one battle after another, who continues to do well, Amanda Seyfried for the testament of Anne Lee. We saw that coming, and Emma Stone for Begonia. I think those were the six favorites. I was worried about Rose Byrne for a minute, but I'm I'm so happy she's here. I will say that seeing how the race is shaping up, expect this to be a battle between Rose Byrne for if I had legs, I'd kick you for being the critic's favorite and Amanda Seyfried for the testament of Anne Lee. Um, do not be surprised. I'd say right now that Amanda edges out Rose Byrne in this category. Real real figure. Um, yes. Um, and it's very interesting to see those two women, those two contenders battle each other, because I think it is up to them for the win. Um, because they're also, you know, two vulnerable candidates in this best actress race. Um, and both stand to possibly be the only nominations for their films if they do get nominated for best actress. Right now we're pegging that they both will, but would we be shocked if Amanda Safried doesn't get nominated and the Testament Van League gets completely blanked? If you've seen the film, you wouldn't be shocked either. Um, and Rose Byrne, as we just said, can easily miss the top five as well.
SPEAKER_01:We've floated the theory, and obviously we'll share with everyone once we get closer to the deadline, but we've sort of floated a theory where Rose Byrne and Amanda Seyfried may end up getting um cut from the screen actors nominations.
SPEAKER_00:We believe that I think right now you and I firmly believe that Rose Byrne, as we mentioned, and Amanda Seyfried will not get SAG nominations, and that someone like, for example, Kate Hudson, who's on this list, will get in instead. Oh boy. Um or I mean, or Chase Infinity can get that spot, which is which is great. I think Chase Infinity is is a SAG nominee too.
SPEAKER_01:But sort of our gut is sort of saying that either of those performances are not going to be the best with SAG, the SAG voting committee, right? In which case, again, it makes this and it's not so much the performance, it's the movies that they're in. Right. Well, yeah, maybe both. Um but I do I do think it makes, as you said, this win massive. This is gonna be a very important win if either of them can pull it out. Listen, if Chase Infinity pulls this out, that's that would be I would amazing.
SPEAKER_00:What if Kate Hudson wins?
SPEAKER_01:The only thing I think she's a strong Oscar.
SPEAKER_00:I don't know if she becomes an automatic nominee. Because the thing that very interesting thing about Kate Hudson people is that, as we said, these categories should have a real life figure involved in them, and that you know, if they wanted to replace Amanda Seyfried in the Oscar top five, uh, you know, that slot, the real life figure slot, they could go for someone like Kate Hudson, who's playing a real life figure as well. Not a you know, super well-known life real life figure, but a real woman.
SPEAKER_01:I'm not sure it makes her top five, but it it makes her knocking at the door of the fifth nominee. Um, I think the only thing that hurts is Kate Hudson won for Almost Famous. Can she really get two golden globes? Right. That seems a bit much. Um we'll see what happens. But I think if she does win that, then she's very much biting on the heels of whoever is fifth. And right now I'm afraid that that's Rose Burn.
unknown:Right.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, for best supporting actor in the motion picture, we have Benizo Lotoro, Jacob Alordi, Paul Mesco, Sean Penn, Adam Sandler, Stellin Skarsgard. Again, the top six. The critics' choice six, yeah. Um, it's the it's it's that's what I'm telling you. That's the top six for best supporting actor. It's between those six.
SPEAKER_01:It's actually, I think it's actually important to mention here because we don't really talk about it too much because we don't do TV. But um, Jacob Alordi got two nominations. He got nominated on the TV side and for Frankenstein, as did Amanda Seifried.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, so look out for both of those things to possibly factor in as to whether they can win the category or not. But again, this is more or less solidifying into the top six list.
SPEAKER_00:Also, I want to mention to people who might not know, you know, don't think that Adam Sandler has been, you know, really well recognized by the Golden Globes. Like this is only his second nomination um for a film, yeah. For a film. So that's that's very surprising. Right. He did not get an eye for Aka Gems.
SPEAKER_01:Right. If anything, I think he may have trouble getting an eye for a SAG because he just got nominated for Hustle.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah. Uh for best supporting actress and a motion picture. We have uh the ones that were uh obvious to us were Al Fanning, Ariana Grande, Amy Madigan, and Tiana Taylor. We did not think that Inga would get nominated. I didn't think she had the name. And and they tend, you know, there have very few uh foreign performances that have gotten nominated here. She just became one of them. And then a big surprise in Emily Blunt getting nominated for the Smashing Machine. It does make sense because she's a pair with uh Dwayne Johnson, so it makes sense that they would both get in. I'm very surprised that Gwyneth Powell did not land a nomination here for Marty Supreme. That seemed like a very globes thing for them to do, obviously, not enough. Um, and I think we're seeing that in the precursor so far, there's just not enough steam for a you know female representative for the Marty Supreme film. It's pretty much a Timothy Chalamet show. So this this snub for Gwyneth, to me, and maybe again, I have to admit we I have not seen the film yet. This snub, though, to me affirms that Gwyneth does not have enough here to get a nomination, especially the hill that she has to climb, being that she's sort of taken an acting break, and that it always felt weird for her to get her second nomination after her Oscar win for Shakespeare and Love after an Oscar break, where she's been focusing on her brand a bit more. It just doesn't seem like the kind of thing the Academy does, like, oh, we haven't seen you in a while. Here's an Oscar nomination. This nub right here makes it apparent to me that she's not a supporting actress contender for supporting actors.
SPEAKER_01:We've always talked about the idea where Gwynneth is gonna have a little bit of trouble because she's been kind of MIA from acting for a while, and that may come back to haunt her. But Odessa Odessa has great ink for this movie, yeah. She's yet to sort of become a factor in the race.
SPEAKER_00:Um she's gotten a few precursor mentions, but nothing. Nothing significant.
SPEAKER_01:Um, so I will say that to me, what I'm seeing, and I think this is an overall trend of Marty Supreme, is sort of um a timing miscalculation. So it seems like all these movies, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, it was just an accident, one battle, they're starting, they're in the very early midst of their peak. They're not gonna peak yet, they're gonna peak, you know, at the end of December, early January, maybe mid-January, but they're slowly ascending to what is going to be a peak. And it just feels to me, from the way I'm seeing it, Marty Supreme has barely launched. Marty Supreme should have gotten more nominations here, even if it's for Odessa, even if it's for the director, Gwyneth Paltrow. It only has one more nomination. We'll mention it for screenplay, but three nominations, it didn't get an iron for score, for example. So three nominations, that's that's not where a movie that is that is as well received and I would imagine as appealing as that film is. Again, the front runner for best actor, that's not where it should be.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:And so there is a timing miscalculation here from A24, and their only hope they have of catching up is having a great debut over Christmas, and it just being box office fodder and all the fans of Timothy Chalamet and of the Safety Brothers coming out and supporting it over that weekend, over that one or two weeks, because right now you would not think that it is, you know, as as well received as a movie as it is based on what it's getting at.
SPEAKER_00:I also want to mention that you had floated, uh, we've been talking about I don't know if you mentioned in the podcast, that Mari Supreme might be positioning itself in a similar vein to the Brutalist and getting possibly double-digit nominations. Um, they do really well in the best director category at the Oscars, et cetera, et cetera. And when you see this kind of performance and you put it alongside how well the Brutalist did at the Golden Globes last year, you know, you can't help but feel like Marty Supreme is not gonna reach that level. They're off track right now. They're not on track to meet the success they had nomination-wise, possibly possibly even win-wise, right, uh, that they had with the Brutalist. Right. Which won here, I believe, best picture.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, but also most of those A24 directors that got in got nominated here. So, like the only hope it looks like they're gonna be able to get is the Lenny Abrahamson hope, which is he got in at the very end, and maybe uh Josh could do that, but he should have been in this list for best director. And the fact that he's not over Guillermo do Toro just kind of tells you that right now, while all those films are peaking, Guillermo do Toro's film is probably a very solid fifth movie, right? You know, to the film to the voters who don't want to put two foreign films in for best director or two foreign films into the top five.
SPEAKER_00:Right. You know, well, you know, since we are talking a lot about best director, we're moving there in a minute. Um, I'll just say that uh for best supporting actress, again, Emily Blunt was a big surprise, and we've contemplated how this supporting actress category at the Oscars is missing a, you know, as we were saying with Amanda Seyfried, a real life figure. She is someone who's, you know, she's playing a real, a real, a real life figure, right? Um, we just don't believe that she can make it at the end by herself. She'd have to get in with Dwayne Johnson, and the actor category is very competitive, especially for a film that underperformed. And what would what is you know gonna be some bias possibly being held against Dwayne Johnson, this being the first kind of film where they're seeing him in a different light. Um, but her mention here, I think, gives a lot of sale, gives gives more momentum to her to her candidacy. Um, because again, she is the only real life figure here.
SPEAKER_01:I that's what and that's what I think went out, by the way. Like, for example, Wound Me isn't on here, Regina's not on here, Jeff Lopez isn't on here, none of the Marty girls. I ultimately feel like the big thing that won out here is it'd be great to have somebody real, and if the academy feels that way, then they may not have too many more options beyond Emily Blunt.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, at one point back in September when Emily Blunt had shifted into the supporting category, I thought she was gonna win because exactly she seemed like the early winner. Why? Because she's a she's got a full career. Um, she's not it's not her first nomination, it's a supporting category, so she doesn't need that huge of a movie or that huge of a performance. It's not like what she would need to carry her in the lead race. Um, she has her co-star there. Um so I wonder if just you know the how perfect that package is. In and certainly in context to these other, you know, other individuals here. I mean, right now we're sort of pegging the wind, maybe to be between Amy Madigan and Deanna Taylor. Yeah. Right? And on ink, on paper, Emily Blunt is better than both of those. Yeah, you mean the Oscar one? In terms of the Oscar one. Yeah, I hope. She's better than both of them.
SPEAKER_00:She's a better option, she makes more sense. She makes more sense. I even wonder if there's a world where we need that veteran spot in the best supporting actress category, and right now feels like Amy Madigan is a very uh strong contender for that slot. Is there a world where they don't want to nominate weapons for an acting award or an Amy Madigan? Exactly. Her role is just not enough, and they say, Well, no, my veteran spot is actually Emily Blunt for.
SPEAKER_01:That's exactly what I want to say. And again, uh we're not outside the realm of possibility where Emily Blunt could pick up a win in this category. It's I don't think it does not go without say at the end of the day, her movie has outnumbered the nominations for weapons. Um and the other the other people nominated might just be a little bit too complicated to give them a win. Maybe Al Fanning. Maybe. I'm not sure. But but I I wonder, like I said, it's not, in my opinion, outside of the realm of possibility to see Emily Blunt and Dwayne Johnson get a bigger um resurgence here when the winners are announced. Um and I do think it's really interesting that Emily Blunt was the one who was able to get that spot, that she's the real person, and that on paper back in September, it made perfect sense for her to win this. And so, like, in the midst of maybe not having that many great people to sort of conveniently fit into the things that you traditionally like to nominate, is her being a veteran actor as a real person going to be enough. Right.
SPEAKER_00:Um, and like we said, this is a chaotic category. I think this is this was a little bit of a blow to the Gwen with Paltrow campaign, to the Jennifer Lobas campaign. You know, this was a this was a category that seemed like you know, it it would be ripe for for for their um inclusion. Right. It's a very it's a very weird category.
SPEAKER_01:I think it's a boon for the Inca campaign because we didn't think she would be able to get in with her name not being very recognized.
SPEAKER_00:Or Glenn Close. I thought Glenn Close might have a mention here for North Deadman.
SPEAKER_01:It's another miss for Glenn Close. Um, and you know what? I actually don't think it's a killer personally for WoonMe. I didn't think Boom Me was gonna get in here because they don't know who she is. Yeah, um, so at the end of the day, Woon Me not being here is not a big deal.
SPEAKER_00:Right. For best director, as we were saying, was one battle, centers, Frankenstein. It was just an accident, sentimental value, and Hamnet, the top six minus Marty Supreme, and put in Guillermo do Toro, who continues to do pretty well.
SPEAKER_01:I think Guillermo de Toro is on his way to getting uh a DGA nomination. Right. Uh very, very possible. And I think that it's gonna be over Marty because just simply put, not enough people saw it. Interesting.
SPEAKER_00:I would I would think that would be over someone like Joaquim Trier, I'm not sure. For sentimental value.
SPEAKER_01:Actually, they could actually keep off both foreign language um films and put in both. That that that could happen. Right.
SPEAKER_00:Uh, best screenplay, we have one battle after another, Money Supreme, Sinners. It was just an accident, sentimental value, and Hamlet. Um, I actually think it was very important that Sinners got on here. Um, because you and I have flirted with the idea that Sinners might not make it to the uh original screenplay category because it's very spectacle driven, then they tend to go elsewhere, think Mad Max, think gravity. Right. They tend to think Avatar, I think they tend to miss the screenplay categories, but it's mentioned here, I think, solidifies that it's a stronger screenplay candidate than I think. Then we give it credit for. And we give it credit for. I agree. Um, and that possibly if the writers have to choose between nominating in the original screenplay category, Sinners or Weapons, that would choose Sinners.
SPEAKER_01:Because it's a more uh more established best picture movie, right?
SPEAKER_00:Right. For best original score, we have Frankenstein Sinners, one battle after another, Surrat, which was really cool to see a nomination here.
SPEAKER_01:Very big, very big nomination.
SPEAKER_00:Right, Hamnet and F1. Um, as you were saying, maybe Surrat has enough to muster its its way into one of these categories. I don't think so, but it would be really cool if it did happen. Uh, for best original song, we have Avatar Fire and Ash Dream as one, which we predicted. Uh The Girl in the Bubble, which we predicted as well, Golden as well, I Lied to You from Sinners as well, No Place Like Home from Wicked. So both Wicked songs got on.
SPEAKER_01:That's an overkill.
SPEAKER_00:It's a bit of an overkill, but I will say, you know, in a way, as we were saying, well, and Train Dreams for uh for Nick Cave um and Bryce Dressner for Train Dreams. Um, I will say it might not seem like there were diminishing returns because Wicked still managed four nominations. Yeah. No, five, if you include I'm not, and I don't cinematic and box office achievement. I don't, but the big one, which was Best Picture, it still missed. Right. So I still feel like it's diminishing returns.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_00:Um, and then finally, cinematic and box office achievement. That's not a real thing. That's just not a real thing. Avatar F1, K-pop, Mission Impossible, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked, and Zootopia, Wicked for Good and Zootopia. Obviously, Wicked Part One won this award. Who do you think is gonna win this? Avatar? K pop? I hope it's K-pop. I hope it's K-pop. Right. You know, uh again, a weird category to be including here. I certainly think it diminishes, you know, their the ceremony. Um, a few pegs. They don't care.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, they could always give sinners cinematic and box office achievement as a way of exactly as a way of giving sentimental value best picture.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Right. Or I think that actually the winner of this category is going to be Hamlet, Best Picture Drama.
SPEAKER_01:Maybe. I think at the end of the day, uh the tally was one battle with nine, and I will say no one talks about it enough, but as far as I could tell, one battle after another scored um pretty much um the most accu nominations um that a film has recently scored at the Golden Globes between leading and supporting, and so that's five nominations. Leo, Benicio again, finally, Sean, Tiana Taylor, and Chase Infinity in lead. So that's five, and that ties Chicago when Chicago got five actors in. Um, they couldn't get the same five into the Oscars, but I think it's pretty important. I think it also ties Nashville. Nashville got five performances in, not including like back in the 70s, they were doing these uh special categories like young actor or most promising performer and things like that. So excluding that, you know, five nominations, it's pretty big. You know, we talk about can one battle after another score the same amount of acting nominations as The Godfather Part II, as Network, as Bonnie and Clyde. Well, it certainly did at the Golden Globes. All three of those movies did not get more than two or three nominations at the Golden Globes.
SPEAKER_00:But I'll go further and I will say that the way that I'm seeing the race pan out, and as we're seeing, you know, one battle clean up, I think it's going to clean up at the precursors as well, the televised precursors. I think it's by and large going to be the best picture winner, the best director winner, the best screenplay winner. I think it's going to be a film that's going to rank alongside, you know, uh the you know famous 14s. It's going to get 14 nominations at the Academy of the Oscars. And that a big reason for it landing those 14 nominations again, which would put it alongside, you know, Titanic, uh Ben Her, um, what else? Uh Lala Lala Land. Was All About Eve also one of those? I'm not sure. I think it was. Um, alongside those iconic films, which is gonna be very revelatory and very foreshadowing of its dominance at the Oscar ceremony. I think in large part one battle will be able to do that because it will get six nominations in the acting categories, which will be a record breaker. Right. Um, and uh we'll see if that pans out, but that's my big prediction. It's gonna break records, and all six are going to get nominated, the surprise being Regina Hall for one battle after another, um, in the supporting actress category. And that's how I'm seeing it pan out. Yeah, I'm seeing a record breaker here. That's what it looks like right now. We'll see if anything changes in the next few weeks. Okay, and that brings us to the next part of the next segment of this episode, which is going to be all about the short lists which are coming out uh next week, and we'll be looking at uh the categories that are going to be having a shortlist and what our predictions are for those categories. Correct?
SPEAKER_01:Right, exactly. Um, so let's start going through these and mentioning a few things you should expect to happen. Um, let's start with visual effects. Um, I think there's certainly a few films that are the favorite here. Um, so they should certainly make it into the shortlist. And again, these short lists they vary in number and visual effects. You'll get 10 movies listed. Um, they already cut down the amount of movies to be considered. They had 20, and so now that list of 20 will be reduced to 10. Um and so you have some favorites here. Avatar, Fire and Ash should should certainly make it in. Um, so should Superman. The new Superman should make it in as well. Um, Fantastic Four should make it in. Um, all those are pretty predictable. So a movie that everyone had pegged to get in here was wicked for good. Um, but I've seen some you know pushback against that recently. So I don't know if it's a sure thing. Not even the short list. It it better be on here. It better be on here, is all I'm gonna say. Um, or else I think it's in dire trouble. Um, so right now I think it's a still a solid bet for a short list, but if it does not get on here, it's certainly a red flag, right? Um, I think after that, I think there's always been a discussion about that fifth spot. Um, some people like to peg that to be sinners. I think we're a little bit standoffish on that theory um because of you know a complicated history between best picture nominees and visual effects nominees. But I do think that Sinners should make it on here. Um, Black Panther made this short list. Wakanda. Um Wakanda Forever. Wakanda Forever actually got a nomination. So it it made it not only made the top 10, which are essentially a semifinalist, but actually got a nomination. But even something like Black Panther, which got snubbed here again with its best picture nomination, it got snubbed here in Visual Effects. It still made the semifinalist. It was still a top 10 movie in this category um after the shortlist. So I still think um Sinner should be on here. Um, another best picture movie that I think should make on should should be here at the end is Frankenstein, actually. Um, and it's kind of weird because Game of the Toro actually, funnily enough, doesn't hit here very often. Um strangely enough. Strangely enough, but uh Shape of Water um did make this shortlist, even though again it got snubbed from the final five. Again, a best picture winner. Um, but Pacific Rim was also shortlisted here. Um, so I do expect to see Frankenstein here. Um I think a couple of movies that you and I think are sort of in the periphery that people underestimate. They're not best picture movies, but I think these are the movies that are best positioned to steal a spot from a best picture movie, or certainly for something like Wicked, which is really, I think, um falling down in this category. Um really struggling. I think is well, the first one is Predator, um Badlands, um, because it did so well at the box office. I think um it's a legacy property. Um, it got in in 1987 for the first predator. I think we had sort of a great showing for sort of that Hollywood property when Alien Romulus got in here, remember, it was also a big summer thing. And so watch for Predator make out make it on here. I think the other thing is um Warner Brothers and Double Negative for their work on Mickey 17. I almost feel like if there's gonna be a movie that did sort of the the cloning um visual effect or the twin visual effect like Sinners, I think it's actually gonna be more enticing for it to be Mickey 17. Um, there's more visual effects work, I think, more integrated into it. Again, it's a sci-fi film, and so they have you know creature design and and background, and um um I think that it's just gonna be something that appeals to them more in the fact that there's just an immense amount of visual effects work um in the entire film. Um so watch for those to make it in. I think, for example, Jurassic World Rebirth, um, which I heard was terrible. I haven't seen. Um, but the Jurassic World movies, um, they've all been able to get here. Um, all the um Chris Pratt ones, right? And so you would expect this to make the top 10. It it made enough money to make the top 10. Um, so I would expect it to be here. And then that last spot is really tough because the other films are just not very good in terms of visual effects. I mean, if they want to include something that is a little bit more um supporting visual effects, they could end up choosing something like The Lost Bus F1. Um, I know that Top Gun Maverick got nominated here and um he got nominated for Critic's Choice, F1. Um, How to Train Your Dragon is a possibility, but it's well if F1 even if F1 misses the short list, that's gonna be a big, a big snub. I think right now I'm pegging it to miss the short list. Um, I almost feel like it's the opposite of what we saw with Maverick. Um, there just aren't enough, I think, visual effects to complement the imagery. And so I almost feel like F1 might have a better shot on cinematography and miss out in visual effects this time, the same way that Maverick got in for visual effects but missed out on cinematography last time. Um, that said, I think most people are thinking that F1 is gonna be a top five movie, and so they're certainly pegging uh pegging it to be a top 10 movie. I'm just not sure that I agree. Um, Mission Impossible, I'm not sure that the effects um are that impressive this time around. They don't have that same sort of ending sequence with the the train that they did in Dead Reckoning. Um How to Train Your Dragon again, it it's gonna suffer from the fact that in general, um, those sort of animation to live action movies have not done well here, whether it's like Aladdin or The Little Mermaid or Beauty and the Beast. I mean, the only time you really see it happen is is for the Jungle Book and the Lion King. And I think that those had um to their benefit, they were mostly, you know, visual effects. You had one um one real character, I think, or one uh real uh real life actor in the jungle book. And I think you had, I think was it in John Favreau's first Lion King, I think they said they had one shot that was shot on camera and the rest was visual effects. Right. And so I don't think how to turn your dragon is gonna make it here either. Um, Leland Stitch, I think, is very much just that one aspect that's a visual effect. Um, Minecraft is one of the most critically divided films of the year, so I don't know if they're gonna be able to nominate it. Um, The Running Man, I think didn't do too well at the box office, and I think I remember last night in Soho didn't make the shortlist um after making the initial 20. Um, you have Thunderbolts and Captain America there, but I think we're well represented in terms of the superhero movies. Um Tron Aries maybe calls uh attention a little bit, but that property, unlike Pritter, has never been nominated for visual effects. And so considering all that, I think the only the only movie we have left to go to is another critically divided movie. It's uh The Electric State from Netflix, which is possibly the worst movie on this list. Um the Russo Brothers directed it, it has a bunch of visual effects. Um, it even has the visual effects supervisor Matthew Butler, has been nominated a couple of times, including for Ready Player One, which this film seems to like piggyback off of immensely. Um, so I would I would think that that's where we're gonna see. We're gonna see um Avatar Fire and Ash, um Superman, the Fantastic Four First Steps, uh Sinners, Frankenstein, Wicked for Good, Mickey 17, Predator, Jurassic World Rebirth, and The Electric State. I think that's what we're gonna see in Visual Effects.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that that sounds very, very uh plausible. I think that that sounds like a uh a 10 that I can definitely see.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, and I and again, so I think the most notable thing being that F1 would miss that. That would be that would be a big snob. Right.
SPEAKER_00:Okay, now let's move on to our predictions for the short list for sound design.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, well, I think everyone can agree um that these six films, um it feels like the five are gonna come out of these six, and that these six are very much safe. Um, if one of them does not make it in, I think it would be a red flag, a big red flag. Um, this is another category where we're in for ten spots on the short list, and so we agree, um, and most people do that the six contenders that are really buying for the nomination here are Avatar Fire and Ash, Sinners, one battle after another, F1, Wicked for Good, and Frankenstein. And so that leaves only four open spots. Um, I definitely think that one of the films uh to be shortlisted here should be Superman. Um, in general, I think sort of comic book and superhero, you know, tent pole movies, they tend to do well here, at least in the shortlist. Like, I mean, even um Jokerfolio do made it in here, and Deadpool vs. Wolverine recently, um, Black Panther, uh, What Kind of Forever made it in here, and Spider-Man. And so I do feel like this branch in particular, they're looking for the big summer movies, they're looking for the big superhero movies, and so I think Superman is is gonna be successful enough to get on there. I also think it has a very good team, um, and that and that helps. Christopher Boy is um has like 14 nominations, so I think it should make it in you know pretty safely. If not, that's a huge red flag, so that's seven. Um, the next film that I I pretty confident is gonna make it in is one that I think is maybe overlooked, but it would be a huge mention for Surratt to get in here.
SPEAKER_00:It's been doing well so far, right?
SPEAKER_01:And everyone talks about it as one of the best sound designs of the year. We we even got that one when we were in Cannes over the summer. Yeah. Um, so at the same time, like this branch, I remember like was it last year, the year before, like they shortlisted Moon Age Daydream for this category. And so like they're open to recognizing you know different movies, exact different movies, movies that are maybe not what the maybe not just exclusively the summer tent pull movies, right? Um, and so if the sound design is as good as people say and it it appears to be, I would imagine that it could factor in here at the same time. Um, we're actually in this really cool moment where a bunch of foreign films have sort of figured not just into the shoreless, but into the the nominations. So, like all choir on the Western Front, uh the Zone of Interest was nominated. Amelia Perez. Amelia Perez, yeah, Zone of Interest even won. Emilia Perez was nominated here. Um uh Roma was nominated here a few years ago. And so, like, are they gonna maybe on purpose seek out a more international title? If so, that would be like a massive win for Neon because they've never, I think, even been uh nominated here or listed here. And so that's a huge, it's gonna be a huge trend we see over these long lists is how well does Neon do? Right. Is Neon gonna repeat what they did at the Globes and sort of are we gonna see international films start to integrate into a bunch of these categories that you would think they would not be a factor in? And is that going to show us that very much the Oscars are gonna follow the path of the Golden Globes and be, you know, one of the most international Oscars this year instead of nominating movies that have sort of faltered.
SPEAKER_00:Um I will I will say that interestingly enough, that the uh examples that you listed um foreign films making into this category were all best picture nominees.
SPEAKER_01:I was gonna say that exact same thing. Um that they that they all are best picture nominees, but maybe that goes against Surrat. But imagine if Surratt does make it in. Right. Now, what does that say? Right, right. You know what I mean? Where I I think if we live in a world where Surratt is gonna be undeniable in this category, at least to make it into a short list. And again, I think for example Um Ali got into a short list for this for the sound editing category in 2001 and was even nominated in 2001. Um so they have a history of nominating foreign films here, and that history has been stronger than ever over the last few years. If Surratt makes it in here, you're right. What does that say about the best picture race? Because we we order sort of we've sort of pitched that idea that Surrates Well, if it makes it into the final five. If it makes it into the final five, right? And and again, it maybe it is distinctive enough, and they're trying to include those international films, and what they have to sort of fight is, you know, a a nomination for wicked, maybe as you said, and musicals don't do well with a top five nomination for sound if they're not iron. Exactly, if they're non-iron for best picture. What does that say about the best picture race? And so I I think it's gonna be exciting to see if Zerat gets in there, not just because it's gonna be historic for Neon, but it starts to paint a clearer picture of what Best Picture might look like. And again, we're not we're entering, we may be entering that realm of as impossible as it sounded you know two months ago to think that Neon can own all five spots for best foreign film, these shortlists may actually make the argument as to how many spots can they actually own in Best Picture. Because what if there is room for sentimental value, it was just an accident, the secret agent, and Surratt because it got that sound nomination, right? And so it's gonna be thrilling to watch it to see if that happens. Um so that's uh that's eight. Um no, that's that's that's eight exactly because we had six, and so we had two more spots left. Um, there aren't a bunch of really good movies. Um Fantastic Four has um Matthew Wood on it, and he's been nominated a few times. Predator was actually shortlisted here in 1987. Um, House of Dynamite. Some people are still uh pegging for maybe being a dark horse here, and some people are still pegging for film editing. So, I mean, is there a scenario where you can get film editing and sound? Sometimes a nomination goes there together. Um, it would be great to see House of Dynamite here, but I I'm thinking that maybe the boat has sailed on that nomination. Um, Marty Supreme actually has um the legendary Skip Levsky on it, um, who has eight nominations, but they all came from either Corona or Cohen Brothers. Exactly, or the Cohen Brothers. So um at one point you and I were pegging Heen Rajab, maybe for a mention here.
SPEAKER_00:And again, I wouldn't sleep on Hean Rajab.
SPEAKER_01:If Heen Rajab got in here, that would also be massive. That would be great. Um, because it would it is the same, the same Oscar nominated sound designer from all quiet on the Western Front. Right. And it's very much like I think they're actually using the actual uh exactly they kept the integrity of the audio recording, and they must have you know had to make sure that it was um uh a high enough quality to incorporate into the film, and so I'm sure that it required a lot of work. Um, but so it would be a really interesting uh shortlist to see if it gets mentioned there. Um, but I think at the end of the day, the easiest people to sort of side with were deliver me deliver me from nowhere, because they do tend to like um these musician films on here, right? These uh musician biopics, and the team is good. Um, Paul Massey was even uh here for Bohemian Rhapsody.
SPEAKER_00:Um last year for a complete unknown.
SPEAKER_01:Oh, yeah, even a complete unknown. Maybe that's what they're gonna hold against. Uh but having seen the film, don't you also think like they're like they're really messing with like because Springsteen recorded the track in his like little solitary room, they have to really manipulate it. And so at one point, there's a lot of you know, you can tell a sound team as having a lot of fun with how they're trying to recreate that sound and the journey to try to recreate that sound. So I think that'll still show up here. It should, and it'd be great if it did. Um, and then I think The Lost Bus technically sort of fits the profile of a film that they could spotlight here. Um, I think of something like Deepwater Horizon. I think that's sort of based on history, based on a true story, something that does appeal to them, and also something a little bit more contemporary and modern day. And they also love his films, and they also do love Paul Greengrass' films. Yeah, you're absolutely right. And so I do think maybe we'll see The Lost Bus here. That'll be two Apple movies between that and F1. And at the same time, maybe The Lost Bus is a dark horse for visual effects because of the more contemporary effects, more supporting effects. Um, but I do think that if if there was any category where the lost bus could maybe hope to factor into it, it would it would be here.
SPEAKER_00:Right. So our predictions for this category are Avatar, Fire and Ash, Cinners, one battle after another, F1, Wicked for Good, Frankenstein, Superman, Surratt, Deliver Me From Nowhere, and The Lost Bus. Okay, and moving on to our predictions for the short list for original score.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I think the best place to start out with is the Golden Globe Six. Um as long as this shortlist has been going on recently, um, there all six Golden Globe nominees have factored in to that shortlist at the Oscars. And so the Golden Globe nominees were Sinners, one bat after another, Hamnet, Frankenstein, F1, and Surratt.
SPEAKER_00:And so they should all make it in.
SPEAKER_01:So they should all make it in. Um, what's kind of interesting is that original score for some reason has a short list of 20 movies, which is an insane amount of movies. Um, but also at the same time, because there are so many open spots, it's also one of the most inclusive um shortlists for the Oscars. Like you're gonna find uh a lot of different types of music, um, some international titles, including Surrat, for example. Um, they're gonna try to include um uh black filmmakers, um, female filmmakers, um, to try to sort of support those films. They'll they'll include they'll include documentaries, they'll include animated films. So it's kind of like a really fun category because in the top 20 short list, you're gonna get a really eclectic mix. Um, and so some of the other movies that I think should factor in. Um, I think a big movie to miss the Golden Globes was Marty Supreme. You and I have talked about that whole idea about the anachronism. Is it gonna affect the movie or not? Let's I mean, I think we're expecting it to be here, right? Yeah, yeah. Um, so Marty Supreme should be on there. I think Bugoni is gonna do well here. I think um he was nominated for a poor thing, so he should get in here. Um, I think Heda is gonna get in, um, which would be really great. Um winner, Oscar winner, really, for Joker. Um But Nia De Casa, um, female filmmaker, she's making the film, but they also sort of shortlisted her film Candyman, which was incredible. Um, so expect to see her here. I hope to see her here. Um, Nicholas Britel has had a lot of success. Yeah, so I think we're both expecting Jay Kelly. Yeah, yeah. Jay Kelly should be here. Um, Avatar Fire and Ash, I think should show up here too. Um, Disney does really well in this category. Disney does like one or two nominees at minimum. Um, I think usually more on the two side, but I don't know if this year they might be a little bit light, but I think Avatar, Fire and Ash should get in here. Um Wicked for Good somehow got that nomination um last year, which was really massive for any sort of musical film. Yeah. Um, I know that it's still sort of a sequel and it's you know still on the coattails of that first one, but with that sort of historic nomination, I would be shocked if it doesn't show up here. I think it needs to show up here. Um, and so I'm I'm still pegging it to show up here. Um, if it doesn't, again, it's another red flag. Um, Fantastic Four has a lot of fans. Michael Gacino. Um, he's uh he's he was uh an Oscar uh winner for Up, I believe um 2009. Again, another Disney movie, which is great. I think Train Dream should get in here because Sing Singh got in here. So Bryce has been on this short list before. It's again 20 spots, um, one of my favorite scores. Um, so I think Train Dream should get in here. I think Netflix does well in this category too. They have Jay Kelly, obviously. Um, Testament of Ann Lee. I think Daniel Gullenberg, he just won. Um, but I think they may like the idea again that he's sort of incorporating you know some of the hymns. Um, I think the music is great in the film. Incredible. Um, so I think that he's gonna be able to make it in with 20 spots, you know, in terms of international films, and they do like to include international films. We have Surratt already. Um, they often include Almudova films, they often include Almadova films. Um did you know that Alma Dover is actually a producer on Surratt?
SPEAKER_00:Yes, I think I knew that.
SPEAKER_01:Yes, that's got that's gotta be a great person to have you know in your corner. Um, but in terms of foreign films, like I would not be shocked to see an inclusion here for no other choice. Because having seen the movie, you and I kind of know that the film integrates the score that's informed by you know uh a specific element in the story, a specific um sort of character in the story, and I think it does it to really get to is really successfully. Um, so I would expect that to show up. Um, highest to lowest. Uh, they've been really responsive to Spike Lee films, and this one is very score forward. I know some people don't like that, but but we liked it. Um, and then that's only like three spots left. Um, let's see, uh Pixar usually does well here, but Elio has really struggled. We're kind of low on animation. I think Zootopia 2. Um, it's Michael Giacchino again. We have him there for Fantastic Uh 4. Arco has a great score, and I would not be surprised to sort of see it show up. I think you even liked sort of an original song that I think attention for. Yeah. Um, and I would love to see uh a mention for the music for 28 years later, which I thought was fantastic from from Young Fathers. Um, but I'm afraid that it's a little too vocal, even though they have recognized horror films in the show list before, like Candyman, as I said, Nope, Us. Um, so that'd be great to see, but I doubt it. Um, same thing with weapons would be cool to see weapons here because the director is actually part of the scoring team. So that would be a huge boon and huge to its best picture hopes. Um, but I think at the end they're gonna favor more of the um established uh composers composers. So look for House of Dynamite to get in, the composer from Conclave, who got nominated last year, and he won for Alkwa on the Western Front, uh Resner and Ross to get in for Tron Ares. Um, and then finally, I think Rental Family, they haven't recognized this composer before. Alex Summers. Alex Summers and Jones. Alex Summers, yeah. But the music I think is something that would resonate a lot with them, and I think they're gonna like how it tries to be multicultural, and so I think that's gonna end up being the list.
SPEAKER_00:Right. So then our predictions are Sinners, one battle after another, Hamnet, Frankenstein, F1, Surratt, Marty Supreme, Begonia, Heta, J. Kelly, Avatar, Fire and Ash, Wicked for Good, Fantastic Four, Train Dreams, The Testament of Anne Lee, Northern Choice, Highest to Lowest, House of Dynamite, Tron Ares, and Rental Family are predictions for the original score shortlist. Yeah. Okay, moving to the best original song, our predictions for the best original song shortlist. Um they are going to narrow this, the eligible songs to 15, which is different from score. And you know, looking over the contenders, there's a lot of easy ones to uh think that are gonna make this list, which makes the available spots minimal. And so the easy ones to uh uh figure in into these uh top 15 are the two songs from F1 should make it in, Drive and Lose My Mind. The two songs from Wicked should make it in, Girl in the Bubble and No Place Like Home. That's four spots already. Um the Diane Warren song should make it in uh from her documentary Diane Warren Relentless, Dear Me. Um Diane Warren. She's always she's royalty in this category. Right. So Who's Never Won? Who's Never Won? Oddly enough, but she did recently win a uh career uh achievement uh Oscar from the uh from the Academy. So I don't know if that sort of evens the playing field or not. Um Sinners should get both of their songs in as well. I lied to you, and last time I seen the The Sun. Train Dreams should get in for Train Dreams. A high uh so let's say that and Golden from K-pop, obviously, which I think is a favorite, in my opinion, to win this category. Um, so counting that, we've got one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, and nine songs, which seem pretty safe to get in here, uh, which doesn't leave a lot of room for other contenders. Right. Um, considering that, and considering some of the precursors uh that specialize in mentioning, you know, original songs and motion pictures, I would say that, for example, a f a song, the song from Highest to Lowest, you know, titled Highest to Lowest, right? stands a very good chance of getting in here. It's a very rousing song, very inspiring song that plays at the end of the film. And I imagine this branch responding to that. Uh, the Avatar song, which got an eye for Golden Globe by Miley Cyrus, Dream As One Should Get In Here as well. So I believe that's 11 spots now.
SPEAKER_01:I'm not sure that Miley's ever gotten a chance to perform at the Oscars. That might be a pretty big thing.
SPEAKER_00:And I think she didn't even make the short list last year for the song that was included in the last show, girl. No. So I think that'll change. So that's 11. I think the testament of Ann Lee, obviously, it's a musical. I think it should factor in here at least one song, the best one being Clothed by the Sun. Um, uh, the other song is uh a little bit of a more let's let's say a little bit weirder. I don't think it's gonna factor in. I think we're just gonna see one song here for them. I agree. Um, so that's 12, I believe. Um, and so we're we're we're left with only three spots left. Um, and so you know, some people that we uh considered were the ASAP Rocky song from highest to lowest. Uh there's a Jeremy Renner track from the from Chronicles of Disney, which sounds kind of cool, but I don't think that'll make it in. Caught Stealing has a cool song that plays on the end credits. Brownsville Bread has a nice acoustic uh sort of ballad um performed by I believe uh Latin musicians. So that might have a chance here. Him has an interesting song as well. How to Train Your Dragon has a like a semi, semi-chorus chant song from um the the famous composer John Powell. So maybe possibly he's a dark horse. Materialists has a song that uh that plays in the trailer and plays in the movie as well, um, that got some traction over the summer. Unswift Horses has a nice song from a uh a musician that's uh part of that soundtrack. Uh Olivia Coleman has a song and from Paddington, possibly because they love Olivia Coleman, but I think Paddington in Peru has not done very well overall. Plain Close has a cool song that's gotten a little bit of traction in some precursor groups from Emily Wells. Um Steve has a pretty cool song. The Netflix film with uh Killian Murphy um maybe factors in a little bit. The Twits has a song by um David Byrne and Haley Williams. Yeah, yeah. Possibly Shakira has this utopia song, but ultimately I think we decided on our love from the Ballast of Wallace Island. Um, I think they're gonna like, you know, that that film sort of revolves around, you know, music and musicians and you know coming back together. That's always appealing. Yeah, and performing. Uh so I so we picked that one. Um we also picked uh the song from the documentary Come See Me in the Good Light, uh Salt Then Sour Then Sweet, which Brandy Carlisle is on. Um, and uh I think there's usually a mention here from a documentary film.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:Um we have Diane Warren, but this one has a lot of got a lot of play too. Right. Um, and it's about something important uh and significant that I think they'd like to showcase uh as a as a selection here. Um so I expect that to make the list, and that leaves one spot open. Um, and uh one film that I considered was Hurry Up Tomorrow has a cool song. Um, but that film was such a bomb. Oh wow, I doubt it. You think such a box office was such a box office bomb, but they do like him. He's been nominated here before. That's right. Um, so but really we decided on uh a song from Arco called Clouds Away, which is a really beautiful song if you hear it. Um, and uh we considered it for score, right? But I think it'll factor in here for song. Um, so the top 15 that we're considering are Drive from F1, Lose My Mind from F1, Girl in the Bubble from Wicked, No Place Like Home from Wicked, Dear Me from Diane Warren, Relentless, I Lied to You from Sinners, Last Time I Seen The Sun from Sinners, Train Dreams from Train Dreams, Highest to Lowest from Highest to Lowest, Dream as One from Avatar, Fire and Ash, Clothed by the Sun from the Testament of Anne Lee, Our Love from The Ballad of Wallace Island, Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters, K-pop Demon Hunters, Clouds Away from Arco, and Salt, then Sour, then Sweet from Come See Me in the Good Light.
SPEAKER_01:It's kind of interesting that Arco, I think, almost factored into our original score um list also because they like animation and we don't have anything. Um, so it could be a really good day for Arco between those two mentions in song and score, but vice versa, if you can sort of see a reality where it could lose both those spots to, for example, Zootopia 2, and the Shakira song gets in for Zootopia 2, and then Mikeino gets in for a score. So watch out for that to happen. That might happen as well. Right. All right, so if we move over to the um category for makeup and hairstyling, um, this shortlist should give us uh 10 films vying for a nomination. Uh, five will end up getting it. Um, I think right now you and I are pretty uh confident that the top five should be somewhere between um Frankenstein, Sinners, Weapons, Wicked for Good, and The Smashing Machine. And there are a couple of things they look out for in this category. Um, they like uh fantasy, they like horror movies, um, they like sort of um fairy tales, um, but they also like sort of biographical material, right? Right? Um, things that they can sort of see the makeup job compared to the historical figure, for example. Um, and so like a mix of all those kinds of movies should fill out this list. Um, and uh what I think we'll end up seeing for the for the final five is um Superman, I think, could actually end up getting in here. Um it's kind of weird because Superman, um a Superman movie has never been shortlisted here, much less nominated, so it would be a pretty historic thing for it. At the same time, James Gunn, if you remember, did get Guardians of the Galaxy, um, the first uh the first film in that series, it did manage to get a nomination here, but he didn't work with a company called Legacy Effects, um, uh of which they tend to uh they tend to work in the sort of the bridging makeup and visual effects and sort of the makeup effects. And so for example, this is um someone who's listed as a a a makeup artist for Superman um was actually a nominee for the Oscars last year in the capacity of visual effects um for Alien Romulus, and he was a previous nominee for Iron Man, um and that's uh Sean Mahon, and he um I think is um uh a pivotal figure of that company, Legacy FX, and so it's kind of funny because he also worked on film. Like Shape of Water, right? Um, and he's very much responsible for like the creature suit and the creature design and things like that. And Shape of Water did not get nominated for makeup, right? Um, nor did it get honored for visual effects. And it's almost like um it's almost like the presence of like this department or this sort of um figure in the film that is bridging these two things, it's very difficult for either branch to sort of fall in love with. So they'll they'll they might look at some of the makeup work on Superman and say, well, is that more visual effects and less makeup? Um, and that's traditionally what has happened here, um, whenever like legacy effects has been involved. Um, so like they were not involved in you know Guards of the Galaxy Volume One, they were involved in the other two, um, which did not manage to get nominations. Right. Um, so that might be interesting to look at. Um, Peter Schwartz King is um working as a hair designer on this, and uh he's um been nominated for his work on Lord of the Rings and um most recently The Hobbit, and certainly he comes from Lord of the Rings fame, but uh funnily enough, um he actually hasn't been shortlisted or nominated since that mention for the Hobbit back in 2012. So he and he's a very, you know, um respected and esteemed uh and prolific figure in in the makeup industry. Um that being said, I think the work in Superman is gonna be strong enough, especially in that bake-off, to uh get it onto you know, to challenge one of the five movies for a spot, and I think it should make the short list.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, I think looking at sort of the fact that they like biographical material, right now we're sort of all we have is Smashing Machine, and that should hopefully get in between, you know it being based on a real character and the makeup job they do on The Rock, um and it helping the performances, and it's also sort of in the world of athletics and and certainly in the world of um MMA, which there's a lot of you know, there's makeup effects that go into that for the movie. Um but I think one of the one thing you often see is that you know the makeup nominees tend to overlap with the acting nominees, which gets me to think that I that a movie like Blue Moon could do well here. And the makeup team isn't very robust, it's a small movie, and the makeup work is almost exclusively Ethan Hawk, right? And and you know, what they do with the forehead and the hair work. Um and so like they're not doing like this crazy makeup work to shrink him or anything, right? That's not what happened. Um, but I do think that like remember like last year when they nominated or I'm sorry, when they shortlisted Waltzing with Brando, right? And sort of the makeup work in that film was pretty much contained to whatever they did to Billy Zane. Yeah, um, and the team was also not very robust, nor did they have like all these previous Oscar nominations. I think Blue Moon is sort of in the same territory with the added benefit that Ethan Hawk is looking pretty good for a nomination. Right. So amongst the biographical films, I think Blue Moon is a little bit ahead, even if the team isn't too robust. Right.
SPEAKER_00:Um another biographical film exactly um would be would be uh possibly Christie.
SPEAKER_01:I yeah, I'm thinking Christie could, I think, end up being a good choice um because it's might hit the sweet spot between um sort of you have the makeup work to make it look like the real life characters, which is something that they they like. Then you have the effects work of having to, you know, put her in these matches, and you have to have the bruising on the face, and right that's usually what happens with boxing movies, and and they do well here. Cinderella man got nominated, the fighter was shortlisted. We're thinking the smashing machine is gonna get shortlisted as well. And um, and the other thing is that they like to see change, you know, they like to see aging. And um, while Chrissy doesn't age incredibly, you could see her going through different stages of her personality, you know, in the hair word, for example. Um, and you'll see that in multiple characters, it won't just be um Sydney Sweeney's character, but you'll see that in John in um uh John Ben Foster Ben Foscuse Ben Foster's character. Um and so I think that they're gonna like all that, and that's gonna possibly hit the sweet spot. Again, it's not a very big team, but the hair um department head is a previous winner for their work on Dallas Bios Club, and that might help. Yeah, um, so look for that. I mean, the other sort of biographical films that could maybe factor in um Springsteen, uh, some of those uh the department heads worked on Maestro, but they weren't nominated. Testament of Ann Lee, I thought is a good choice. Um, and there's there's you know certainly a lot of period makeup going on as well. Um, but I don't know that the team again is is going to be well known enough, but I wouldn't be surprised, surprised if it shows up here. Um sometimes some of these movies end up being movies that you know otherwise would not be celebrated. And so, like you have Robert De Niro for Alto Knights, you know, and he's playing both historical figures, uh Costello and and Vita Genovese, and sometimes he has to share the screen so you can really sort of look at both makeup jobs and compare them. Um I've seen bits and pieces, I think there's there's good work in it, but I think um sometimes it's not about the quality. Remember, sometimes this is gonna come from the bake-off, the nominee. Um, and maybe enough people in the industry know the the challenge of having to do the same makeup on the actor and try to make it look differently, and they may respect that. So I wouldn't be surprised if Alto Night shows up here. Again, Waltzinger Brando is not the most celebrated movie, right? Of course, and still made their shortlist. Um, and then Nuremberg um actually has uh uh hair department head who's been on here for a few BAFTAs, so I wouldn't be totally um out of left field to see them shortlisted, but among the choices, I think Christie was the best after Blue Moon. Um, so I think that leaves more or less uh two spots left. Um, some other good movies were um Barney Supreme, for example, we've yet to see it, but it actually shares a prosthetic designer with Sinners, um, and they're definitely gonna be nominated. Um, and they're a previous nominee. Um, Kiss of the Spider Woman has great makeup. They did a great job on Jennifer Lopez, but also they did a great job on Tonya 2, especially in the ending. Um, but certainly like the wig work, um, all that uh could potentially uh have it show up and the same thing, the wig work that they have with Jennifer Lopez throughout the different musical numbers and also the different personalities you have to sort of create for her. Um, so I wouldn't be shocked if that comes up. Um, I think other movies that I thought did a really good job were uh HETA. Um, and I actually think that that um that that uh I believe um Department of Both Hair and May and Makeup, um Sharon Martin, I think she was shortlisted for Jingle Jangle in 2020. So I wouldn't be shocked to see HETA here. Um, the same thing with something like Cot Stealing, which is one of my favorites. Um obviously one of the people from the makeup team for COD Stealing was also a winner for the whale. For the whale, yeah. But they were not responsible for the prosthetics work, which was a big reason that it won. That it won. And certainly this this branch likes to like sort of divide the work between hairstyling, makeup, and prosthetics. And the most important thing for them is usually prosthetics and then makeup and last hair.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, but I I I think I think I wouldn't be surprised if if Cot Steeling got in, they do create a lot of like different characters with that makeup. And um, that makeup artist, um Judy, Judy Chin has been uh shortlisted for West Side Story and and Little Women and The Gloria, so she has a little bit of a streak going on. Um, so that could happen. Um, Warfare has a lot of makeup effects because of the uh everything going on with the war. Um, and um part of the team was nominated for 1917, and um part of the team was also nominated for Mistress of Evil, and so that could happen. Um, and then there's some movies that I think you and I are like individually fans of, but I don't know if they have the best team. I don't know if they're coming out too late. Um, I don't know if they've been widely seen enough. I don't even know if maybe they qualified for the Oscars or not. But so on that list you'll have Songsung Blue, uh Bring Her Back, you were a big fan of Um Soul on Fire. They have to do some makeup work um based on a true story, but uh A Burn Victim. Um April. April had great yeah, April had great makeup work. Um The Plague has very good makeup work. Um The Toxic Avenger, if you're a fan of the original, does a very good job. Um at one point we didn't know if the Luc Besson film Dracula was gonna qualify or not. We're still not quite sure. Um, Fantastic for our first steps has some solid makeup on it. Um, but then then you kind of have to go back to just three movies, um, and they're kind of all circling each other. The more notable one is probably Bugonia, right? And Yorgos did not get a nod here for the favorite, but he did get a win for Poor Things. Could that maybe help him? I know that, for example, it was actually nominated for the European Film Award for its makeup, and maybe that helps it. Yeah, I do think that if it gets a mention here, it's pretty significant. I think it's a great inclusion, right? Um, certainly like for its aspirations for things like you know, uh Best Picture. Um uh so watch out for that. But I think the two we're gonna end up going with is gonna end up being Wolfman because of sort of the the legacy of the work, right? Right. It does have Arjun Twitten, um, who had a couple nominations for Wonder and for Maleficent, the sequel, Mistress of Evil, which is kind of interesting because he got in for both of those as the film's only nomination. And that's sort of like the same area that Wolfman would be in at the same time. Like this is obviously a huge legacy project. I remember back in 2010 it ended up winning for the Benicio Lotoro version. Um, so there's a lot of respect for for the IP. Um, it's the first time that RGen is involved. Um, I also think it's interesting because um one of the nominated makeup designers from Border is actually part of the team as well, and so that could also help it. Um, and then uh the last one we're going with, which I think is the riskiest choice we have, is 28 years later. Um which has some of the best makeup of the year. Yeah, but I think that we're maybe being a little hopeful here. Horror films have done well here recently, right? But zombie films have never really been their cup of tea. Right. They've never really liked zombies. Um, and despite, you know, amazing work from John Nolan, who's part of the effects um makeup effects team there, and Rebecca Cole is a previous nominee. Um, despite all that, I still think we're living in a reality where it can miss the cut. As sad as that is. Zombie movie bias. Exactly, zombie movie bias. Um, but right now I think it's certainly the um a great makeup job. It's a very assertive makeup job. Um, and I think it's very layered. Like they they do a very different makeup job on different sort of subspecies of zombies, but it's also very storytelling focused. I mean, what they did with Ray Fines' character was amazing. Um, so let's hope that it gets gets in. But I think that's what we're pegging right now. I think those are the 10.
SPEAKER_00:So our predictions for the makeup shortlist are Frankenstein, Wicked for Good, The Smashing Machine, Sinners, Weapons, Superman, Blue Moon, 28 Years Later, Wolfman, and Christy. Okay, now let's move on to our predictions for which films are gonna make the short list for a documentary feature.
SPEAKER_01:All right, and so there's um 15 spots here as well. Um, and certainly there are some movies that I think are already early favorites. Um, you have The Perfect Neighbor from Netflix, uh Cover Up, Laura Poitress's film should get in. Um exactly uh Apocalypse and the Apocalypse in the Tropics should get in there. Um Netflix. From from Netflix. Um My Undesirable Friends Um Part One has been picking up a lot of steam lately. Yeah, I'm not sure it's gonna have enough to get the nomination, but it should at least make the short list. Make this short list. Um 2000 meters to Andrievka um should get in. Um obviously it's still a very timely topic. Um, and it got a lot of um very notable mentions on the way here. Um Seeds um actually did really well at Sundance. Um I don't know. But it was kind of quiet after it's been kind of quiet. I don't know if anyone's picked it up, but I think it should do well here um as well. Um and then the filmmaker from Honeyland is back with a new documentary um called The Tale of Celion.
SPEAKER_00:And I believe it's also a foreign language film submission.
SPEAKER_01:Yes, it is the foreign language film submission from North Macedonia. Um, and this time they're working with Nat Geo, and I think Nat Geo does well here with one or two films, so I think that Tale of Celion should get in here. Um, remember, she had sort of that record-breaking nomination exactly when she got when she got both. Um, I think MTV does well here, and I think even uh you know Black Box Diaries was nominated last year, and so I think their big push this year that we should see is was one of our favorites.
SPEAKER_00:It was one of our favorite films of the year.
SPEAKER_01:From Sundance, it was uh Predators. Um so and I think that's available to stream already. Um, but so I think MTV should get that film in. Um, a couple of other Sundance standouts I think um should get in here as well. The librarians, really timely topic. Yeah um Sarah Disco Parker's on that as an executive producer. Right. I think something that you see with um documentary, the documentary shortlist is that they tend to want to divide it between, you know, films that deal with domestic issues and films that deal with international issues. Um and so you're gonna see like a mix of both. And um you sort of start to see like what topics are are really of the moment. Um, and certainly something like the librarians um pops up in terms of like um where some of the discussion is going on now in terms of like politics and culture. And so I think that should help it get in.
SPEAKER_00:Um another another Sundance movie, yeah.
SPEAKER_01:The other another Sundance movie is the the Alabama the Alabama Solution. Um, that should do well here as well. And their previous nominee for their work, um, gap tree the freedman's, even though they they worked on the Jinx as well. Um, this is from HBO, and I think the Jinx, you know, has a mixed reputation amongst the documentary community, but I still think the Alabama solution should get in here. Um, so something you won't see very often are like these documentaries that are a little bit more focused on like a personality. I know that Michael J. Fox's documentary still made it in, but you're not gonna see too many of those. And so there's a lot of love for the Marley Malin documentary, but I doubt that you'll be able to see it. Um, Mariska Hargate. Yeah, Mariska Hargate has a lot of passion. Has a lot of passion for um My Mom Jane, but again, I don't think that you'll end up seeing it on the shortlist. But I do think, for example, you'll end up seeing something a little bit more intimate, um, like Come See Me in the Good Light. Um, that's from Apple TV. And that director, that filmmaker, um, is from Goodnight Oppie. And if you remember that, that that missed um, I think a nomination at the end. And so it'd be great to see them shortlisted. Um, Yanuni um is coming from the filmmaker from Sea of Shadows from like 2019. And I think again, this is another opportunity they have to spotlight an international issue and sort of um a movie about um indigenous rights um for uh the community in in Brazil and trying to, you know, um protect their land rights. Um I think uh Leonardo DiCaprio is an executive producer on this. Right. Um, Mr. Nobody Against Putin was another really big uh documentary at Sundance, and I think that's also a foreign film submission. Also a foreign film submission, and I think there's some overlap there between like a movie that succeeds in both. Um, and so I I think it will get in here. Um, and I think it's a dark horse for a nomination. I think they also really like this idea of like when the filmmakers or the subject are really sort of clandestinely sort of exposing this truth that other forces want to sort of keep hidden and keep buried, like this David and Goliath kind of yeah, this David and Goliath dynamic, but also like you know, the subject coming forward and sort of recording these things secretly to try to expose what's going on um when everyone's not looking. Um, sort of like a little bit like a um remember the cove. And so, like when this um teacher, you know, is turning the camera on on their students and sort of showing you um the dynamic that has um arisen in you know the school environment um with uh what what's going on with um the Russian invasion of Ukraine, I think that um the branch is really going to um be drawn to that. Yeah, I think that's a big dark horse. Exactly. Um so I I think that that movie would make it in. And then I think for the final two spots, there's a lot of there's always a lot of great um documentaries. And so, for example, I uh the New Yorker at 100. It's like the 100 years of the New Yorker. It's directed by Marshall Curry, who's been nominated several times. I think that he's even won. Um, and it's certainly a subject that they're gonna like. Um, I believe it's Netflix as well. The White House effect um has gotten some love on Netflix. Um we love Jean Franco Rossi um for Below the Clouds, which did well. Architecton did great for A24. Um, Raul Peck has Orwell, two plus two equals five, which did really good at Cannes, and he was nominated for Um I'm Not Your Negro in 2016. Yeah um and there's a lot of people who love that film. I think our our fear is that it might just be a little too broad because it doesn't tackle one issue specifically, but just larger issues. Um, Black News, for example, I think might be too edgy for this branch, but it'd be great to see it there. I think um Rifenstahl, I I would not be surprised to see it there, a portrait of Lenny Raffenstein from uh I believe Keno Lorber, um, and it got nominated at the European Film Awards. Um Put Your Soul in Your Hand, right? Was a big, big favorite. Um, and I think that's sort of our dark horse. Um, but after No Other Land, I don't know if they're gonna maybe feel like they want to put the spotlight somewhere else. Um, but I would not be shocked to see it show up in the top 15.
SPEAKER_00:Um Afternoons of Solitude made the top of the cars do cinema.
SPEAKER_01:Yes, some people absolutely love Afternoons of Solitude, but I we haven't seen it yet. But I'll bet it's but we know we know the filmmaker and he's not their cup of tea, traditionally the Academy's cup of tea. And it's from what I understand, it's also very much his style, um, very uh experimental, experimental and meditative, and not necessarily very issue-oriented. It's probably very visual. Um, but so I I I I wouldn't be shocked if it makes it in. I think it won a big prize um at one of the big festivals, but um, right now we're sort of leaving it off. Um, Grand Theft Hamlet has some fans and it's a very original idea. Um, I think at the end, we ended up going with two films that speak a little bit more specifically to the US and what's going on here. And one of them was Suburban Fury, right? Which is Um this documentary that examines um or or has the testimony of this individual, this woman who was responsible for the assassination attempt on Glenn Ford. And so we thought that would probably be very um something that would uh really provoke the branch members to go and and check it out, um, and also sort of a complicated topic. And then the other one was uh Natchez, um, which did well at Tribeca and is again it's sort of exploring the culture around sort of these um around the south and sort of Confederacy culture by like looking at these um plantations um that are being run a little bit more like you know um uh amusement spots, right? Um and and these individuals who you know provide tours to these places and very much enjoy getting up and getting into their Confederacy outfits and and painting the Confederacy in a very you know uh to say the least complicated way, um in a way that is um uh uh problematic in what it omits. Um and so I thought that topic would be really, really interesting and unique, um, and that branch members would really respond to it. So I think in the end, what we're predicting for the documentary in future shortlist, it's 2000 meters to Andrievka, The Perfect Neighbor, uh cover up, uh Apocalypse in the Tropics, Seeds, The Tale of Celion, My Undesirable Friends Part One, Predators, The Librarians, The Alabama Solution, Come See Me in the Good Light, Ya Noone, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, Suburban Fury, and Notches.
SPEAKER_00:Okay, now moving on to our predictions for what's going to make the shortlist for international film. There's some obvious ones here. Um, especially, you know, we're in a very uh interesting time in the academy where international films are having uh an imprint in the larger wards and not just segregated to the ghetto of you know international film. So the obvious ones are it was just an accident from France, The Secret Agent from Brazil, Sentimental Value from Norway, No Other Choice from South Korea, and Surratt from Spain. I think those are pretty obvious, but then there are some other titles that I think um should factor into this list. Um, so we've got uh The Voice of Henrajab from Tunisia should factor in here and is a dark horse, we believe, for possibly best picture. The President's Cake from Iraq from Sony Picture Classics should do really well. In fact, we think it's a dark horse to make the final five. Yeah, well, yeah. Sony classic's got um that they got I'm still here, they got teacher's lounge in 2023, they do well here. Netflix does really well here, so we uh fully expect the the left-handed girl from Taiwan to make it in.
SPEAKER_01:It's kind of weird that Netflix only has the like really the one big contender. Very weird. So like you you would have to imagine that left-handed girl has to get in here.
SPEAKER_00:Um uh that's been sort of usurped by by Neon a little bit. Uh Belen from Argentina, which is you know um about uh abortion rights, and uh has been doing really well with uh sort of a you know uh the film going audiences responding to it very well. It's from Amazon.
SPEAKER_01:Um it's kind of interesting because uh I think the last time Amazon even figured into this race was from also Argentina. Another film from Argentina, which was Argentina 1985, exactly. And again, another historically I think uh another movie inspired by historical events, right? Which is which Balen is, I believe.
SPEAKER_00:Germany Shagan for The Sound of Falling, which is one of the best films I can. It was one of the best films I saw this year. I think it'll have a wider release next year for Mubi.
SPEAKER_01:I think, yeah, I think that's Mubi's big bet. And I also think that Germany has had a pretty good record over the past three years of making it into their short list.
SPEAKER_00:Um yeah, I love that movie. Um Magellan from the Philippines should get in here as well from Janice. You know, um, they've also made it in, uh, they made it in for EO Um and actually Flow in 20 uh last year and got in as well.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, so I I think I think Magellan should make it in here. And I actually think that might be Love Diaz's first short list. Um, obviously, like he's been submitted before, but Magellan, um, even though it's in Portuguese, I believe, um it's uh it's um representing the Philippines, like from for like a filmmaker, Love Diaz.
SPEAKER_00:Um My Father's Shadow, which it did tremendously at the Gotham Awards, um, is and it's uh it's the submission from the UK. Uh movies releasing that later on, and the UK has actually been on a streak recently, you know, uh having been included for Santosh, and then the Zone of Interest, which actually, you know, um picked up the award. Exactly. Uh Mr. Nobody versus Putin. We were we were speaking about. We also expect that to make this list uh from Denmark, and Denmark has also been on a streak since 2020 with you know shortlist mentions, and then um uh there are a few other films that uh we considered, and many of them which we've loved. I've loved Young Mothers from Belgium at Cannes, uh from the Master Darden brothers.
SPEAKER_01:So they've been sort of like blanks recently, like it's been a while since they've um made a short list from being submitted.
SPEAKER_00:Right. Um Reed Land, I got to see at Cannes as well from the Netherlands, is a great film. Uh Franz is Poland submission. Umland has been here before. Yeah. Uh Chile's submission is the mysterious case of the flamingo, which also went to Cannes, and I saw and I loved. Late shift, I think, uh is uh a possible spoiler here as something that could can make this shortlist. I'd be very I wouldn't be shocked if it made this uh short list. It's Switzerland's submission, um, and they're kind of trying to end a drought of you know, um, you know, not making it into the shortlist, yeah. Um and then uh Jordan has a submission for um All That's Left of You, which went to Sundance, which we saw as well, and we liked it.
SPEAKER_01:Um there's also a couple of films though that are dealing with Palestine, right? So it may be on the on the on the end that ends up being left out. I mean, we already have Hean Rajab there as well.
SPEAKER_00:And also, you know, it was hard to leave out, for example, the tale of Sulian from North Macedonia, considering that you know she's done well uh before in both of these categories, uh documentary and foreign.
SPEAKER_01:Same thing with uh 2000 meters try and drive. So, like duck because documentaries do well here, I think we're sort of pegging that Denmark's um Mr. Putin uh against nobody gets in, but you could end up seeing more than one documentary in here and more than one film sort of qualify for both short lists.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And at the end, we went with uh for the last two spots of the short list, Palestine 36 from Palestine and A Poet from Columbia.
SPEAKER_01:And I think that helps that Palestine like 36 is this really immense, massive sort of you know, historical epic. I mean, Jeremy Irons is even in the film, right? Um, and so I think that's going to appeal to some more conservative voters that like to see, you know, uh sort of a more straightforward, um, less um ambiguous or uh maybe less uh challenging um thematically um film. And so I think that's a that's a solid choice. And then a poet is a little bit quirky, um, but I think it's gotten some love. Um has been sort of a crowd pleaser since yeah, I think it's a little bit of a crowd pleaser too, because I also think that it's maybe a little bit more humorous than other films in this lineup, and that may be the advantage it has in making it to the to the shortlist.
SPEAKER_00:Right. And so our predictions for the international film shortlist are it was just an accident, the secret agent, sentimental value, no other choice, Surratt, The Voice of Hin Rajab, The President's Cake, Left Handed Girl, Belen, Sound of Falling, Magellan, My Father's Shadow, Mr. Nobody versus Putin, Palestine 36, and a Poet. All right, let's jump now to our predictions for what's going to make the shortlist for cinematography, which is one of the the first time they're going to have a shortlist.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And I think supposedly they said there could be anywhere between 10 to 20. So this makes it a little bit more challenging to predict. Um there are some obvious ones. Yeah.
SPEAKER_00:So I mean, who who are the people who are certainly they're certainly going to be there? Right. So one batt after another should be there, Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, and Train Dreams. I think that's the favorite.
SPEAKER_01:So it's a solid five.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:I think the following five would probably be something like Claudia Miranda getting in for F1, um, Nuva Vogue, because it's black and white, you would figure can get in here. Marty Supreme, Iris Kanji, um, previous nominee. I should get in here. I would be worried if Marty Supreme didn't get in here.
SPEAKER_00:It should, yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, Jake Kelly, uh Linus Sanguine's been um on the show list for a couple of times, even if he hasn't managed nomination. I think it's the work is a little bit on the quieter side, but I think on name alone and the Netflix brand, it's gonna help. Um, I think I'm hoping we're gonna see 28 years later here from Anthony Dodd-Mantle, who's a former winner for Somdog Millionaire, doing some really innovative uh work with iPhones. Um, we'll see if enough um branch members saw it, or if enough branch members liked it.
SPEAKER_00:Um the innovation itself should be something that helps it land at least on the shortlist.
SPEAKER_01:I would hope so. I still think it has an opportunity to get a guild nomination and maybe even a BAFTA shortlist mention. And so I'm I would expect it to show up here, but I guess I wouldn't be shocked because it was sort of a quiet movie that people were disappointed by. Um, the la the next five spots I think are a little bit tougher because these movies are a little bit further away. Um, so I think Bugonia comes to our mind because Robbie Ryan has managed to get nominations with Yorgos before it is using VistaVision, which is gonna be sort of attention calling. Um, so is uh testament of Ann Lee. Yeah, so I think we're sort of figuring testament to get in. Right, right. Um, Sean Bobbitt is shooting HETA. It looks beautiful, and it was great, it looked beautiful. He was a previous nominee for Judas and the Black Messiah. He worked on 12 Years a Slave, but didn't get nominated there. I actually can see Sean Bobbitt making the short list for the BAFTA as well for this movie. Um, so we'll see what happens. But I think we're airing on the side of that. One of the more controversial films we're gonna list is Wicked for Good. Right. But uh the DP, um Alice Brooks, I believe, did get nominated last year. Um, so I think it's fair to say that Wicked Part One would have been a short list mention, right? Last year.
SPEAKER_00:Nominated at the guild.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, she was nominated at the guild for uh for Wicked One. And if there had been a shortlist last year for cinematography, do you think she would have made it?
SPEAKER_00:I think she would have probably.
SPEAKER_01:And I I mean it only helps that it's 10 to 20 spots, yeah, right? Exactly. Um, so I think we're sort of left with no other position but to to include that film here as well. Um and then for the final spot I think that you and I could think of I think we ended up going with Surratt. Um and it's kind of tough because it it's kind of difficult to think of other neon movies that can make it here. And I don't think that the secret agent or no other choice or sentimental value are gonna have a great shot, right? Or it was just an accident.
SPEAKER_00:Right. But speaking of sent of foreign films that we considered, there are two that come to mind that won a prestigious award, and that's Late Shift and the Sound of and Sound of Falling. Right. Both of those got um big awards at Camera Image. Camera Image, which you know, as of late has been at least an indicator that you know you would at least make the short list.
SPEAKER_01:But I think one of the reasons why we're abstaining from including it is because we're sort of debating how eligible it is or not for this category. Right. Um, they're certainly going for foreign film, but did they meet the qualification standards in order to qualify here? I I'm I'm not sure. So it's kind of dicey. Um Franz, um House of Dynamite, uh Springsteen, Anemone, Nuremberg, all those are films that played at Camera Image, and Camera Image is a pretty big um festival recognizing you know the cinematographic arts. Um, so it's really big with the branch. Um, so those wins for like late shift and sound of falling are are are significant. It's just a question of eligibility. Um and then yeah, I I I there's some there's some movies that are fringe picks, like Magellan, for example, uh Resurrection. Um but I don't think I love the cinematography from Dime I Love, yeah, Seamus McGarvey, and he's a previous nominee. It would be amazing to see him listed here for that. But I I really doubt that they saw it, and I really doubt that they're gonna like it. And so because of that, I don't think that we could have thought of other films beyond 15, unfortunately.
SPEAKER_00:That's why we think it's gonna land somewhere around there.
SPEAKER_01:So we're gonna go ahead and and predict 15 and and say that there isn't we couldn't find an additional um five spots to fill out the 20, um, unfortunately. Um, and then yeah, so then um uh recap who we're thinking is gonna get mentioned.
SPEAKER_00:So our predictions for the films making the short list for cinematography are one battle after another. Sinners, Hamnet, Frankenstein, Train Dreams, F1, Nouveau Vogue, Marty Supreme, Jay Kelly, 28 Years Later, Begonia, Heda, Surrat, Wicked for Good, and The Testament of Anley. Now moving on to the uh films that we predict might make the short list for best uh documentary short. Obviously, the shorts are very hard to predict. Um, so you know, we're gonna give it our best shot. Uh, who are we looking at? Who are we looking for?
SPEAKER_01:And I mean, there are upwards of 100 films, um, and all of them look really fascinating. I think with documentary shorts, what you're gonna end up seeing is that like there's a couple of outlets that have sort of dominated um the race. And so whenever there's a documentary that's affiliated with one of them, it gives them like a certain advantage, I would say. And so, for example, um, all the empty rooms looks like it's definitely gonna be nominated. It got picked up from from um from Netflix um right after it premiered, I think in Telluride on Toronto. Um, I think um even Ben Stiller jumped on as an executive producer, and it has to do with sort of exactly school shootings and um the after effects of that. And there's like a a correspondent who was sort of um investigating sort of you know the impact left behind by the absence of of these kids that um that are victims to school shootings in the US. Um, I know that uh, for example, it's it's being directed by Josh Sefto, who was nominated for Stranger Stranger the Gate in the same category. I think this film has to be the favorite to win. It's gonna be a very popular choice. Um, so this should definitely get in there. Um HBO does really well here, and um, they got a couple of films that I think are gonna resonate with the branch. Um, armed with only a camera has to do with a journalist who um passed away or was killed um while trying to cover Ukraine. Um, and then his brother, I think, um, helps him finish the film, um, won an audience award at South by Southwest. Um, funnily enough, uh, the director of The Perfect Neighbor, uh, Gita, Gita Ganberg is here for um uh a short documentary on an Atlanta abortion clinic. Um, and that's from HBO as well. Called The Devil Is Busy. The Devil Was Busy, exactly. Um, and then HBO, I think, has a documentary about sort of this uh doctor in a rural community, I think in Oklahoma. Um it's called Country Doctor, and it's sort of um examining this issue that um has come to the forefront, which is you know, these rural communities which are isolated, um, they're having trouble finding individuals to care for them. Um, their hospitals are in trouble, and and a lot of the times um that leaves a huge gaping hole in the health care of all the of all the community members. Um so I think that will resonate with them as well, will resonate with the branch as well. Um, LA Times um I think has a great documentary. I was able to see um from the documentarian Andy Timoner, um, whose documentary Last Flight Home from MTV Films was shortlisted a few years ago, wasn't nominated, but was shortlisted in the feature category, feature documentary. Um, and so this uh documentary short has to do with the uh LA fires from earlier this year, and I think um that's really gonna resonate with a bunch of um uh uh voters, and so look for that film to factor in on the walls come down. All the walls came down. Um, and then uh New York Times has a documentary called Their Eyes, um, which uh played Berlin and it's sort of about um the individuals responsible for sort of training the the data or the systems for like these self-driving cars and how and how that sort of enables them for the most part to function without you know causing casualties to um you know uh human beings and and it sort of teaches them um what the surrounding environment is like. And it looks like a very interesting visual documentary because I think a lot of it ends up being told by like how they end up, you know, uh how these workers end up uh uh interacting with whatever software or whatever um interfaces they have to then teach um those self-driving cars to avoid hitting a pole or a dog or uh um a human being crossing the street. Um so look look for that New York Times doc. And the New Yorker does really well here. And they have, I think, a bunch of um documentaries that I think are gonna resonate with the branch. And so one of the first ones is Cashing Out, um, which is about sort of these individuals at the height of the AIDS epidemic um cashing out their life insurance policies. Um, I think it's a really interesting perspective. Um Ravenus choice um has to do with um the shutdown of USAID and sort of examining like what this um I think single mother um who's living in Kenya has to sort of like come to terms with you know uh having to feed um their daughter or their child and not having the resources to do that because US pulled um aid under Trump. Um so I think it's called Ravina's Choice as Maritimer, really timely, um, and sort of also an international perspective, which they're gonna like. Um then there's a movie called um a short called The Ban, um, which played Tribeca. Um it's on The New Yorker, and it has to do with um Margaret Thatcher's policy of of having um in public media um having individuals sort of uh dub um dub the interactions or other words from um individuals who were uh supposedly associated with terrorists. Um and so that looks like something that could resonate with them as well. I think it was I think it played the London Short Film Festival, and I think it was um maybe even long listed for a Bath to mention. Um another New Yorker nominee, uh, another New Yorker short, last days on Lake Trinity sort of chronicles, um, a South Florida trailer park. Um residents facing eviction, yeah. Yeah, exactly. That's being moved, and so the residents are trying to, you know, uh come to. Terms of the idea of you know they may be homeless there uh you know in the in in the coming months and so they're trying to to you know uh come together to battle that um and then I think after that there's a few films that aren't necessarily associated to any platform but have a lot of really strong um uh festival backing behind them and one of them for example is a film called The Flower Stance Silently Witnessing and that just recently was nominated for a European Film Award and it was spotlighted at Sundance and it was even a BAFTA nominee. Um it's kind of an interesting film I think using archival footage um sort of the uh a perspective of a a British a British officer I believe um taking these photographs and I think supposedly some of the first color photographs of um this uh patch of land and specifically flowers in Palestine um and I think it's also using an audio track um I don't remember if it's uh some some sort of testimony that becomes an interesting juxtaposition with that and so that looks really really fascinating. Um there's a uh a short called Children No More Were and Are Gone, which was shot in Tel Aviv and it's all about sort of and I think you've seen them in the news the mourners of uh Gaza's children exactly who sort of like um stage like these silent vigils and they carry like these posters or these photographs of all these children that have died which provokes a large number of people who are just passing by um but you also see sort of the groups sort of how they ha are are sort of thinking through what they're doing and what their message is right um and so that's I think a really powerful doc that might resonate um a lot. Um who loves the sun uh played Venice um and it's about sort of it's a really really visual documentary um that looks at um the oil refineries in sort of um war towards Syria and I think again that just that international point of view is really going to help it stand out from the other documentaries here so I would expect that to make it um uh we were the scenery is a really fascinating documentary and I think it won a prize at Sundance and what's kind of fascinating is that um it's like again the legacy of apocalypse now it's just um a little bit of a testimony on these individuals who escape Vietnam right only to end up being used as extras in the Apocalypse Now film from France for a coppola and sort of they're sharing their story of what that was like absolutely um and they use a lot of archival footage I believe as well and so that was a really interesting interesting perspective and we all know you know Apocalypse Now was nominated for an Oscar the Hearts of Darkness was nominated for Oscar so it's kind of interesting to see if the legacy of that project will live on yet again in a shortlist mention here or even a nomination here. And then um Southern Brides um Spanish document uh Spanish short documentary um that played can Critics Week um but it was actually nominated for a Goya and I think was nominated for a Cesar as well. And it's really interesting it's uh sort of this uh testimony of uh this female filmmaker examining um their uh female family members and role models and sort of maybe even exploring a little bit of a a generational gap between where they are now and where all these female figures and female role models were so many years ago and I think it's using it's using photographs but it's also you know interviewing these subjects um so I think it was really popular again and so I would expect that to make the short list and um a couple of you know really popular films that could end up making it as well um uh Los Angeles Times also has a film called Songs of Black Folks which is um sort of chronicling um this uh historic concert with um all these um black musicians who unite to celebrate uh Juneteenth um and then Shanti rideshotgun which is a profile of um this woman who has become this sort of infamous figure in helping so many New Yorkers get their driver's license and so she sort of is instrumental in teaching them you know how to drive there and it's sort of a portrait of her and sort of how like you know the kind of unconventional unorthodox life that she lives yet she's a vital element to like all this movement that goes on in the city because it's almost like everyone in the city knows that personality and knows their name um because they share a story with her um because they they all share that same experience of being taught how to drive by her. So that's called Shanti Ride Shotgun. I think it's a really popular film. I just don't know if it's issue forward enough um maybe and I think that's where this branch tends to go. And then there's a really interesting film called Inside the Valley Sings which is about these inmates um suffering through solitary confinement and how they go somewhere else in their imagination in their minds to escape that and what's kind of fascinating is that it's actually an animated it's an animated short documentary. Interesting and so it sort of animates all the things that they think about to try to escape solitary confinement. And so it kind of reminds me a little bit of um that nominated short from a few years ago if not last year 95 or 95 senses. Yeah I love what I'm sorry and so it has uh it looks like it has different um types of animation involved but it's all mostly told through animation and through voiceover um so I think those are some outlier choices but I think we're pegging um short list mentions for the devil is busy armed with only a camera country doctor all the walls came down all the empty rooms their eyes cashing out Ravena's choice the ban last days on lake trinity the flower stands silently witnessing child children no more were and are gone who loves the sun we were the scenery southern brides all all sound fascinating the documentary short the documentary shorts of the academy nominates and just the the list in general is always the best of the three short programs so we look forward to it every year um fascinating shorts yeah okay and now moving on to the uh predictions for what will make the animated short short list um I think that there are again a few titles here that really stick out to us in terms of they should be safe um they include films like um snowbear from I believe Aaron Blaze who um was previously nominated for their work on brother bear for animated features so that should be sort of a an easy one we kind of thought that um after we saw it at Sundance um como si la tierra se la subiera tragala as if the earth had swallowed them um was an animated short film um sort of chronicling missing women in Mexico and the culture of women going missing in Mexico that was going to be really resonant. Playing God is a really interesting film that's sort of um introspective about the ideas of art and creation and um it uses some sometimes these horrific sort of figures and I think it has this whole um claymation vibe to it that I think um the branch is really gonna like um retirement plan is on the New Yorker and that's a really beautiful short um and that's coming from Ireland um and uh The Quintus Ghost is coming from Spain and I think it was nominated for an award there um but it's played several film festivals um period peace but the animation is very evocative um and very cutting edge and I think they're gonna like that a lot um sometimes you get a lot of like student academy award winners um being nominated here and shortlisted here and there's a couple that I think really stand out um a sparrow song won the student academy award and was even a BAFTA for the um student award um was even a BAFTA nominee for the student award it's called um a sparrow song and it's sort of again really beautifully animated um about sort of occurring during um the war in the UK I believe the filmmaker is German they should definitely be shortlisted here um another film um that was uh that actually won the student award um for from the BAFTA from the BAFTA um was called Trash and it's sort of like this feud between this um rat and this pigeon in in sort of this dystopic world where there isn't um enough food and sort of the these two entities start fighting each other um again looks beautifully animated. Um the girl who cried pearls is interesting um these filmmakers actually were nominated before in this category in 2008 um so I would expect them to make the short list this is coming from um Canada's national film board nfb which is really famous and almost always makes it in here so um after the student academy awards I would peg uh the girl who cried pearls to get nominated again this is stop motion um dreamworks has a Dreamworks has a a short also uh called Wednesdays with grandpa and that's probably that's probably a good bet to make it on here yeah I think that's that's certainly gonna make it in here um I actually don't have too many short films that make it in here um but I think that the animation style is very timely it kind of reminds me of sort of like a similar style that Sony has been using for things like the the Spider-Veries with the K-pop movies and I think um Dream Works is sort of experimenting with that um and I uh it's sort of sort of an intergen intergenerational story which is kind of interesting obviously the grandfather plays a big part here um the grandfather and the grandson um so that should do well here Versa is a movie that I don't think a lot of people have seen yet but that's coming from Disney um and it's kind of interesting because it's tackling the topic of like um loss of a child yeah losing a child um and I think it's doing it like through fantasy um and you know sort of speculative science fiction and things like that of a relationship between um this couple um and so just by the by virtue of it being from Disney should make it a favorite here um and then another uh a couple other individuals who've been nominated here before include um Theodore Yushiv who was nominated a few years ago for Blind Vaisha he's got the wolf and if you look at any footage of it um it looks really evocative and very distinct the animation style um and I think that might help it land a shortless mention here. Bill Plimpton is back um and he's a producer and an animator on a film called Dwale 52 even though he's not necessarily the screenwriter or the director um but it's very much done in his style and he's had a tremendous amount of success here before um and it looks like a really beautiful beautiful story um again intergenerational and I think it's actually going to speak to a lot of members in the branch I think it's a dark horse for a nomination if it gets in here because it ends up it it it looks like it's gonna have a softer more poignant touch than you know what Bill Plimpton usually does um which which is great too. And then after that there are a couple of shorts um that caught our attention um two black boys in paradise um got on for the British independent film awards yeah and um stop motion um and it's using uh poetry um in its storytelling but it's really sort of uh a very bold and sort of daring um short in in sort of discussing the idea of of homosexuality but specifically black homosexuality and um maybe even um uh masculinity um and how you know how sometimes identifying or or existing um in that space puts you at odds with the larger social world um and so it's a really really beautiful beautiful film um but it could also be like graphic um in a humorous way but also in poignant ways but also in ways that you understand um are more driven to an adult audience but I don't think that this branch has shied away from that I remember when they um I believe they nominated my my year of dicks yeah um for example and so I think that they're really going to appreciate how how that film is using animation to tell this particular type of story. The Shyness of Trees was another Student Academy Award um film. And it's again another intergenerational film um about um uh parents growing older um and so I think the last film that we thought was really interesting played um Annecy um is actually from the Ukraine um and it's called I Died in Urban and it's very much about the filmmaker's own experience evacuating that area and that sort of informed this short which is in black and white and has a lot of you know very particular um sort of pencil uh sort of linear pencil style monochromatic um really really it looks really interesting. Um and so I think other films that we thought about were for example you can't count out you know can the teenage mutant ninja turtles uh chrome alone too short that's gonna be attached to the Paramount SpongeBob movie make it in it's possible it may be a way to make it up for the fact that maybe the movie should have been nominated for animated feature a few years ago um so look for that to happen the puppet and the whale looked fascinating and that's coming from Venice and it's Italian and very much using this really famous um uh fable and also animation property to talk about things like um fascism um and and and and politics and that that might be really um really attention calling um murmuration is using stop motion but also investigating the idea of um growing older um and that did well at Annecy the night boots um did well there as well and I think um again very uh animated in a very evocative style um flower gone and the song of drifters are two more experimental short films which this branch has nominated before I'm sorry has shortlisted before and so I wouldn't be surprised if they make it in at the same time since they are a little since they are not necessarily traditional narratives um it may be something that they sideline um so they also got nominated for student academy awards um or won um student academy award recognition and so that might boost their chances um a big sundance favorite was Huracan um which we saw um was also really interesting um my brother my brother um once won at San Francisco Transferable um was another title that people talked about uh there's a uh film called Shimmer from Mexico that was nominated there um another film that played Sundance was Inkwo for when the Starring returned Forever Green is coming from a couple of Disney animators uh Gigi talks about I believe a trans character and that was nominated for Sar. That's kind of interesting. Uh Budo is a stop motion film one at Tribeca and it has everything to do with a cat.
SPEAKER_00:Kafune was a winner at Goya and it's very much about this um young girl's recollections um having survived um coming over uh on a refugee uh on a on a ship carrying refugees that um then sort of capsizes in the sea um cardboard is coming from the director of Ron's gone wrong um from blue sky back when there was still a blue sky back in 2021 or 2022 I believe and double negative worked on this as well um Cartoon Saloon which is really famous in the Animated Future category and has had some shorts before um they're doing Eero um which is um kind of uh a fantasy short um that played with little amaly um and so there's a bunch of really great interesting movies but I think at the end the themes and sort of um the creativity and the artistic approach of of these films one won out for our predictions and that was the Quinta's ghost retirement plan snowbear as if the earth had swallowed them playing god Versa Wednesdays with grandpa the girl who cried pearls a sparrow song trash whale 52 the wolf I died in Urpin Two Black Boys in Paradise and The Shyness of Trees okay now moving on to our predictions for which films are going to make the Oscars uh short list for live action there's some really interesting movies uh some really interesting shorts here um we have uh Charlie Kaufman short How to shoot a ghost which features Jesse Buckley went to Venice statue factor in here uh Jane Austen's period drama we've seen um at a festival and that's a very comedic take on on on the Jane Austen world you know uh featuring uh you know a period uh circumstance uh event that's happening uh amongst a group of women uh very clever that should factor in here the Singers is a short that you and I saw at uh Tribeca um and it's an amazing short film. Um we it's hard to describe but it's an incredibly poignant incredibly moving film. I certainly hope that it makes the final five I think it will it's also a crowd pleaser um on Sundays at 11 uh we also saw it's a very poignant short um that that that I hope at least makes the short list if not the final five on this one day this kid was a jury award winner at this at South by Southwest and it's a um uh coming of age uh gay short uh which is really beautiful really poignant I love that short film uh two people exchanging saliva features Vicky Krieps as a narrator and uh actress are amir and brahami in a small part um it went to Telluride uh the New Yorker is repping it um and uh it's a very strange short but it's also very sensual it's very creative very innovative um so uh I I expect that to make we expect that to make the final the final list um I don't know if it'll get into the final five but at least a short list um hopefully I mean I know that Elizabeth Hooper just joined as an executive producer so I think a lot of international voters are really going to be drawn to it wow um so definitely look out for that one um dad's not home won the student academy award is from Poland um it's very much about like these kids who have to take the responsibility after their dad can't provide or can't he can't keep the house that they're living in anymore and so that's like a children I think in short films end up being a very common theme and they end up doing well here.
SPEAKER_01:Extremist um is um gonna play uh the New Yorker and excuse me this is the film excuse me this is the film that Ben Stiller joined as an executive producer um and it's uh sort of like a a film about freedom of speech but it's all it's an international short and that's gonna help it stand out I think um you know these uh young individuals um who are gonna stage a certain type of protest but then they're gonna get into into trouble with the government um and so it's very timely. Um I'm glad you're dead now um actually won in can the short film poem Dior. Um, and so I'm imagining that that's still gonna do well. Um, I know one short that you really liked was um Grandma and I, who played Favorites, we saw yeah, played Sundance.
SPEAKER_00:Um, it is a pretty comedic short. Um, uh, it also has LGBTQ themes. Um, I think that should do well here as well.
SPEAKER_01:And the production was really interesting again. In another international short that I think is gonna help. Um, Rock, Paper, Scissors um actually won the student short film at BAFTA. Um, and it's uh about the Ukraine um father and and son um who uh runs sort of a makeshift hospital hospital there and and I'm gonna run into an issue. Um, and it's based on a true story, and I think that helps too because sometimes you will see short films based on a true story having a little bit of an edge here. Um, Border Hopper is really uh interesting. Um, it played Sundance and very uh sort of about um the sort of border dynamics, crossing the border, um, living in the US. Um, it's also a really interesting short because it incorporates a lot of um elements like animation to to make this really um dynamic and idiosyncratic short about these individuals sort of navigating the immigration system in the US um almost as if it was a game. Um so that's kind of uh a fascinating take that I think it's gonna be original enough to resonate with voters. Um uh Sisophean Task uh kind of reminds me of the film on Netflix with Killian Murphy um called Steve, exactly, because it's about sort of um the education system, specifically. I think in the UK. Um I know Hugh Bonneville is in this, um, and that most recently was nominated at the British Independent Film Awards. Um, and there's a couple of really good UK films uh or films that have UK backing that are gonna try to factor in here. I think uh Sesophe and Task is the one that we're betting on, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's another one. Um I think about Kashem um is really uh interesting as well. It's um another international short, um, I believe again occurring in India, um, and it has sort of these queer themes to it. Um, and I think that's gonna help. And the queer themes and um themes on masculinity. Um and so I I I think it's uh also kind of funny. Um so I think that makes it kind of unique. Um and Beyond Silence um is a really interesting short about um these uh young women who are trying to get help with a situation um where they find themselves um uh facing sexual harassment or abuse, and the individual they're going to for help kind of has had a similar experience, but they're sort of like at an impasse as to what to do next, and sort of um examining that idea of coming forward and saying something and sort of maybe a generational gap that exists there. And that was a really fascinating short. I I was actually lucky enough to see that one. A couple of different ones that um got us thinking were um Courage, um, which features Kara Jade Myers, which most people are gonna remember as being a scene through there for Kires of the Flower Moon. Um, that's kind of a it looks like a heartwarming short. Um and it has uh everything to do with indigenous culture, that's gonna make it stand out. Um Spike Lee's an executive producer on a film called Talk Me, um, which actually runs really parallel to two strangers uh exchanging survival. Um a friend of Dorothy features um uh Mary McGallis. Mary Magales, who's uh a famous, famous actor, and that's really gonna that could really help any short, really. Um and that happens to a couple of different shorts. Um Little Rebel Cinema Club has to do with uh kids in and cinema, and and that's another theme that resonates well. Susanna, um, you know, an American uh visiting in in Mexico did really well at Sundance.
SPEAKER_00:Uh the most powerful human on earth features uh Leone Beneche, who you might know from uh The Teacher's Lounge, um, and Mel DeSantan as well.
SPEAKER_01:Exactly. And then you also have some filmmakers or some you know more established individuals in the industry trying to work behind shorts. So Idris Alba has a short with Dust to Dreams. I believe he's a producer on that. Um Leticia Wright is actually the director on Highway to the Moon. Michael Keaton is a producer on Sweetwater, which I believe his son directed. Um, Money Talks features um Francesca Scorsese, um, Martin's daughter. They'll do a lot of uh TikTok videos and social media videos, but she's actually an actor in this film that pays homage to a lot of um American cinema and in particular a lot of 1970s cinema. It even has an homage to taxi driver that I believe Francesca is part of. Um Butcher Stein um won uh the silver prize for the Student Academy Awards. So look out for that. And then Kubrick, like I love you, won the bronze. Um, so both of those could factor in as well. And then um Naomi Sheridan, who was actually nominated for writing the script of In America, she directed a short, um, I believe um called Ki uh Kiki. Um and so uh look out for any of those.
SPEAKER_00:But I think the ones that we're predicting are to make the short list for live action are How to Shoot a Ghost, Jane Austen's period drama, The Singers on Sundays at 11, One Day This Kid, Two People Exchanging Saliva, Dad's Not Home, Extremist, I'm Glad You're Dead Now, Grandma Ne, Who Played Favorites, Rock, Paper, Scissors, Border Hopper, Assisfin Task, A Thing About Kushem, and Beyond Silence. Okay, and now moving to the last category, which is the new category, uh, best casting. Um, we're still very unsure how they're gonna handle this category. So we're we're not a hundred percent knowledgeable as to how the short list is gonna look. What are they gonna prioritize? What factors are they looking for? Supposedly they're gonna have up to 10 make the final cut. Maybe it could be less, maybe. It could be less. Um, some films that are pretty two films should easily make this list, and that's centers and one battle after another. Um, we believe that Jay Kelly might not make the final five, but should at least make this long list, especially because uh Nina Gold is involved, and you know, she's had uh a lot of uh nominations in the uh casting society um uh uh organization. Um, same thing with uh Douglas I Bell, has had I think believe 19 nominations. Um We think Wicked for Good um has uh has a shot of uh of showing up here. Uh Tiffany Little Canfield has had 14 mentions within the Casting Society Association. Um Bernard Telsi is involved with that film as well, and he's had 21 casting society association film nominations. So look for them to uh make an appearance. I think everyone talks about how well casted Mario Supreme is and how particular, you know, those casting choices, uh how those particular casting choices add a lot to the film's successes. Uh so we expect this to show up and we even expect it to make the final five. Um, I think it was just an accident as a film that people are sleeping on for this category that I think could really factor in here and make an impact and make certainly this short list and even go as far as to make the final five. Don't you believe so? Yeah, I I agree. Same thing with Sentimental Value, which I know got nominated, I believe, at the European Film Awards, I think, for best casting. Um, that should do well here as well. Um Ham and Hamnet, uh Nina Gold is also involved in that film. Um uh and also Chloe Zhao has, you know, unorthodox casting choices sometimes. Um, so maybe that could be something that gives her a little bit of an asset here, or maybe it could be a detractor. Uh Nouveau Vogue, because of the specificity of the casting choices to to to uh to mimic these real life figures, I think might be something that calls to them. Yeah. And then we think that something like weapons could factor in here as well.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I mean, I think there are some other titles that maybe could end up here. I mean, people talk about the casting of Black Bag and the Long Walk, Wake Up Dead Man, Um, Rental Family. Um, but it's difficult, like you said, to determine what exactly they're gonna prioritize. What are they looking for specifically? What they're looking for specifically. I think with weapons, what you have is an opportunity for a more mainstream film, but also it's a large cast. Um, and sometimes you even have you know casting in, you know, an unconventional person to play a role like Amy Madigan. And I guess it makes as much sense as anything to to want to include weapons because they did. I mean, the cast is so much of the story, right? They they each own a piece of it. And so I guess right now we're betting for weapons to fill out that that that 10.
SPEAKER_00:Right. I think they're gonna refrain from just making a list out of you know who has the starriest cast. I don't think that's the purpose of this category. Yeah. So I don't know that something like Wake Up Dead Man is gonna factor in here, um, or I don't know, Life of Chuck, for example. Um, it'd be interesting to see what happens with some other foreign films that aren't, you know, for example, uh sentimental value. So, you know, what happens with No Other Choice or The Secret Agent? Um, Train Dreams has gotten some steam. Is that something that might appeal to them? Again, House of Dynamite has a huge cast. Is that, you know, does that merit a casting mention? I'm not sure. That'd be their priority, right? So I think at the end we're gonna go with Sinners, one battle after another, Jay Kelly, Wicked for Good, Marty Supreme. It was just an accident, sentimental value, Hamnet, Nouveau Vogue, and weapons. And that's our rundown of the uh short list uh categories. We did cinematography, we did score, we did sound, we did makeup, visual facts, we did documentary feature, we did international feature, uh, we did animated short, live action short, documentary short. Uh, I believe the shortlist will be out on the 16th, so we'll get to see how many we got right, how many we got wrong, and be able to discuss that next time.
SPEAKER_01:And what the overall trends are. I mean, it certainly seems like Wicked is positioned to do really well, as is Avatar, Fire and Ash, um, and even Jake Kelly. And so the question is will they end up doing as well as we think? And also, will these foreign films manage to sort of break into these other categories? Because Neon, for example, and their foreign films, they hardly ever factor into these other races. But right now, we're pegging neon to break into score and sound and um cinematography and casting. And so, will that hold up? Will that same pattern that we saw with the Golden Globes occur in the short list as well?
SPEAKER_00:Right. And uh I it'll be a very good indicator as to like which films are having some momentum and which films are losing momentum. Um, certainly if we see some big snubs, as we've been mentioning, you know, possibly films that could get snubbed, F1 or the Testament of Ann Lee, you know, we'll start seeing, you know, which films are really, I guess you could say, for lack of a better phrase, you know, the momentum is real or the momentum is not there. Yeah. Um, and so that'll be very interesting. We look forward to discussing that next time. And uh, we'll also have some other things that we can discuss. We'll be working on our website to be able to uh update those charts with the uh precursors of you know the the films and the actors that are winning all the precursors right now or being nominated. That's coming soon. Watch out. Visit our website again, framesandflicker.com, and uh join us on uh follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon. Uh we'd love to have you. And uh that's it for this episode. Uh so signing off, I'm Jules. And I'm Joseph. And it's been a pleasure. The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com, licensed under Creative Commons by Attribution 3.0. HTTP colon forward slash forward slash Creative Commons.org forward slash licenses forward slash buy forward slash three point zero.
SPEAKER_01:Disclaimer The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.