Academy Anonymous
An invaluable, unparalleled and only partly-delusional resource for any cinephiles and Oscar-addicts forever obsessing about whether their favorite films, performances and artists will survive another grueling Oscar season.
Join us on our noble (futile! compulsive!) mission to track the contenders, mourn the flop-aroonis, cut-down the winners, champion the over-looked and generally forecast the state of the race with “100% accuracy" (results may vary).
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(But seriously, consider getting some real help when all this is over… this ain’t healthy.)
Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2025-2026: Our Oscar take on new screenings AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB; Predicting the winners of the Critics Choice Awards and the National Society of Film Critics
| Follow us on Twitter: @AcademyAnon |
| Visit our website for more coverage: FramesAndFlicker.com |
On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:
- A few words of remembrance for Rob Reiner, Michelle Reiner and James Ransone.
- Can AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH pull a GODFATHER/LORD OF THE RIGNS and get all 3 installments nominated for Best Picture? Our Oscar take after watching the latest chapter.
- THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB is undeniably compelling, and could absolutely sneak into the final Best Picture Ten; our Oscar take after screening the film.
- Going over the snubs and surprises from the 98th Oscars shortlists: who’s making an impression (SIRAT!) and who’s falling behind (THE TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE!).
- Previewing the Critics Choice Awards: predicting the winners in every category.
- Predicting the National Society of Film Critics winners and runner-ups.
If you enjoy our awards-season coverage and want to help support the podcast, you can do so here:
Hey everyone, and welcome to a new episode of the Academy Anonymous Podcast. As always, I'm your co-host Joseph.
SPEAKER_01:And I'm Jules, and we're glad to have you here. Uh, just a quick uh few announcements. Uh, first, as always, visit us on our Twitter, which is at Academy Anon, and our website, www.framesandflicker.com. Uh, both of those should be on the cover art for the podcast. Um, we've actually updated, made huge updates for our predictions, especially following the announcement of the short lists, which is something that we'll talk about in this episode. Um, and also we've made a really cool thing where you'll see our predictions, but you'll also see the precursors that have come out for each of the contenders and those predictions and those charts. It looks really cool, it looks really neat. Make sure to check it out. And uh yeah, let's get started in today's episode.
SPEAKER_02:It's also like kind of fascinating to look at because you can sort of see like who the favorite is based on those precursor mentions, but you can also kind of see, you know, the few categories or nominations that were kind of going against the grain. So again, it's really cool. Check out our um predictions. We re-hauled it to include all the precursor um mentions up to date, and we're trying to keep that up to date as as much as possible.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and I also should say that when you look at the predictions, um, our predictions are the top five of the films that we're or or contenders that we think will get nominated, not necessarily the contenders that have the most precursors.
SPEAKER_00:Exactly, yeah.
SPEAKER_01:You know, so the order that you see and the contenders you see in the top five are the ones we're predicting, whether or not they have a lot of precursors, that's besides the point.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, exactly. You know, and and I think we'll name drop this later, but according to precursors, Judy Dunn should not have been nominated for Belfast. Right. And so just because you have a precursor doesn't mean you're guaranteed anything. Right.
SPEAKER_01:And Mary Angela Baptiste last church who were predicting was going to do really well and get an eye for best actress for a very, very deserving uh performance in Mike Lee's Hard Truths, and that didn't happen. So precursors are important to a point, but I also think, and maybe we'll talk about this as the episode goes on. You know, the precursors from critics' groups is not necessarily what the industry thinks. You know, and I think that uh come January when we start seeing uh guilds give their mentions, we'll have a better idea of what the industry as a whole thinks, and what the industry as a whole thinks is very different from what critics think.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, just ask like the brilliant Mike Lee. All you have to do is ask the brilliant Mike Lee if if critics, you know, what critics believe matter that much. Right.
SPEAKER_01:And even then you might get you might do well very well in the guilds and you might pop up several times and you still might get snubbed because it's not a film that is resonating with voters. Ask Babylon. So uh that's always very interesting and very important to keep in mind with this whole like precursor talk. You know, you'll you'll see someone doing really well at their precursors, and then people automatically jump and think, oh, that's it, they're definitely gonna get nominated. They're doing so well. Doesn't mean they're a shoe, and I can think of at least a handful of people among them, Rose Byrne, who is cleaning up the best actress precursors, at least some of the very big uh uh prestigious uh critics group precursors. Um, that nomination is not safe. Not ever. And we'll never be safe. Right. And we'll know a little bit more if she gets into the sag, how that does, but that's not a safe nomination, and that's the same, that's the same story for several contenders.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. Um it's also fun to look at. So stop by our website, framesandflicker.com, and check out our updated Oscar predictions. Before we start the show, I think the most appropriate thing to do is to take a minute and acknowledge the tragedy that happened uh a little bit ago with the loss of Rob Reiner and uh Michelle Reiner. Um it's been a heartbreaking year for losses of artists in this industry, and I couldn't think of a more tragic note to end the year on. It's immensely sorrowful. Yeah, and our uh well-wishes and our thoughts are with all of Rob Reiner's friends, colleagues, family, loved ones, loved ones. We can only speak to the Rob Reiner that we knew through his work, and his work has meant so much to so many individuals, including ourselves. He has made so many amazing films. He's put himself in all his films. He was a brilliant actor, he was a brilliant filmmaker. He he got some truly extraordinary performances from Kathy Bates and Jack Nicholson, you know, um Meg Ryan and Billy Crystal. He was, I think, someone who really understood human beings, modern human beings, I dare I say modern Americans, and I think he had a lot of sympathy for them. And I think he was um a titan of the industry. I think he was an incredible artist. It's such a sorrowful news. And you know, all we can do is sort of find a way forward because that's that's really the only option. Right. Um but our our condolences to all his all all his loved ones and anyone who loved him and anyone who loved his work, of which we we share in that.
SPEAKER_01:Um uh absolutely our c our our sincerest condolences, an iconic filmmaker, iconic films that will live on forever, such a tragedy, such a tragic, as you said, very well said, such a tragic note to end on. Uh a year, a year that has seen the loss of so many heroes and titans of the film industry, of the film as an art form. Um it's very it's devastating.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, devastating and completely emblematic of the kind of year it's been in terms of you know, loss in in individuals who who meant so much to this industry, who meant so much to people who love the art form. Um and then I have to also mention, um, because we were deeply affected by this too, the recent passing of uh James Ranson, who was a brilliant actor. A brilliant actor. And if you were well-versed and well exposed to independent American cinema, you immediately know his face. And I I was uh such a big admirer of his. And again, our condolences go out to his loved ones, to his friends. Again, we knew him by his work. Um and it's one of those things where if you're if you have an appreciation for independent cinema, you know who James Ranson is. And I think a lot of mainstream moviegoers will be able to recognize him from his work on it. But he was brilliant in Tangerine.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely brilliant.
SPEAKER_02:And he was a scene stealer in uh The Black Phone, um Sinister.
SPEAKER_01:Um immensely talented actor. Um The Wire. He provided a spark to all the films that he was a part of. You know, uh he provided this energy, at times, you know, very comedic relief, but also, you know, a lot of uh uh deep feeling. And so, you know, his his passing was uh was uh hit us hard. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and I I also think that he brought it again, I think he was an actor who was able to coax a tremendous amount of sympathy um from audiences into sometimes you know characters that were not easy to love. Um you could see in every performance that he had that he he did it with the utmost passion. Yeah and in every movie that he was in, that he was happy to be there and that he was happy to be participating and happy to be bringing life to something. Um and so we'll miss him deeply. Yeah. Um I think especially because I I feel like he had such a young career and um because he was one of those actors where again, if if you know him through his work, every time he pops up on the screen, you smile because you know what he's done in other movies and you're just happy to see him on the screen. And so that's going to be another immense loss. Yeah. Um, and so our our hearts and our thoughts go out to all those individuals, and we share with all the film goers and film lovers who this community has uh taken a lot of losses this year. Yeah. And um, you know, hold your loved ones close and don't take for granted a moment with your loved ones, and then don't take for granted a moment that you get to have with individuals who who love this art and individuals who give themselves to this art form and to this pastime.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I always say that, you know, to myself in my heart when these kind of tragedies happen, you know, how fortunate I feel to have witnessed their talent and their beauty on screen in the medium in this art form that we love so much. You know, that always uh really sticks with me and and and is something I I hold on to when the sort of these sorts of things happen.
SPEAKER_02:I agree.
SPEAKER_01:I agree.
SPEAKER_02:All right. Um, well, let's move on to um our first topic. So where should we start off today?
SPEAKER_01:Well, let's see. Um there's two films that we want to talk about that we screened recently. Uh we'll start there. First, we'll start with a film that most people have been screening um this December and that we expect more people to be watching, and that's James James Cameron's third installment of the Avatar franchise. Um you and I were, I remember very clearly when the first Avatar came out, and you know, everyone made it a big deal. I think he gave like a special preview of like 10 minutes or something like that. Yeah. Um, like in the summer. It was supposed to be this huge behemoth. It ended up being that when it came out in December. I think it beat Titanic for the most uh the most watched film.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, he beat himself, yeah. And that was like a big headline. And also like he ushered in this moment, right, where we thought there's going to be the arrival of this technology that is gonna completely change the industry as we know it. And for a for a sustained amount of time, it seemed like that was a possibility. I think that that hasn't, you know, held on um over time. I don't think that that's the case anymore, but there was certainly a moment where it's you know, James Cameron changes the industry with Avatar in 2009.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and I remember that race that became the James Cameron versus Catherine Brigelow race. Yeah. Former partners turned competitors, collaborators as well. Collaborators, exactly. Made some amazing movies together. Yeah, and I I think that wasn't it that year in the Golden Globes when Amy Polar and Tina Faye made this joke, something about I think because they were not in the same category. And the only reason I'm bringing it up is because A, we're talking about James Cameron and Avatar, but also there was a headline that recently came out that they asked him about it, and he was still really uh, you know, he felt very icy about that comment still. He he he didn't appreciate it. But anyway, that was that's what was going on in 2009.
SPEAKER_02:I think I remember that comment, and it was kind of funny. I guess it was funny. It was it's funnier if you're not James Cameron.
SPEAKER_01:And uh and then several years pass, and finally Avatar 2 comes out in 2022, and it's so many years, yeah. Yeah, and it underperforms with uh certainly critics. Makes a good amount of money though. Yeah, makes a good amount of money. It still gets an eye for best picture, but as we've talked in the in the past about these sequels that get nominated for best pictures consecutively, or you know, one after the other, installment after installment, you should see a depreciation with regard to nominations. So Avatar went from being nine nominations to having four nominations with Way of Water, you know, just like we've mentioned in the past, Dune went from ten to five. Um, that should be something similar with Wicked this year. There's always a depreciation. Um, and so that only ended up getting four nominations, but it did get the best picture nomination, and people are wondering is it gonna happen this third time?
SPEAKER_02:Fire and ash.
SPEAKER_01:You know, I think there's some pro pros and cons to his candidacy or to Avatar's candidacy this time, and it's that, you know, I really feel like there's eight solid spots in the best picture lineup that are spoken for. Yeah, I I feel pretty strongly about those eight spots, just to reiterate, that should be um one battle after another, and Sinners and Hamnet, and it was just an accident and sentimental value, and Marty Supreme and Frankenstein and Train Dreams. That kind of leaves two spots where everyone sort of like doesn't know what's gonna happen. Um, and Avatar could easily take one of those two spots, but it would certainly be getting in in that last, you know, one or two spots. Um, the critic's reception is still not what it was in 2009 for the first avatar. It's even lower than the second avatar. Um, and so you know, it's a little bit uh dicey. You know, are they going to it will the Academy want to embrace him for this third film? When again, there should be a depreciation. Um uh and you know, the film is still not doing as well as it, you know, in its glory days with critics.
SPEAKER_02:Well, I mean, going into it, I I to to speak a little bit on to something you just said, which is that Fire and Ash does not perform as well critically as Way of Water, right? And going into it after preview screenings to press and industry, um, you know, there are certainly some people, some pundits at some major publications who were starting to sort of say it's more of the same. And I I feel like I heard that quote a bunch of times, more of the same, which to me always sounded kind of fishy because if it's more of the same and way of the water is more of the same, and you gave that a positive review, kind of weird to all the saints. Now it's more of the same, and now it's a rotten review. And it's kind of awkward to me. Um, but uh undoubtedly there's a little bit of uh uh the glow is gone, right? Um, even if it's not something super um uh pronounced, right? It's you know, for example, for Metacritic, I believe Way of Water goes from like 60, what, 65, 67, 67, and I think right now it's holding on to like 61, 62. So it's not major, but I think it is significant. Now, I think two things. Number one, and this is something interesting to talk about before we actually talk about our opinion because we did get a chance to screen it. Number one, it makes a good amount of money again, right? Fire and ash, number one this weekend at the box office, makes I think uh almost like 90 million. Um, but that being said, it does not make what Way of Water made in 2022. Way of water, I think, you know, crossed 100 in exactly 100 million on its opening weekend. Now the weight was also a lot bigger, right? Yeah, um, the weight for Way of Water um was upwards of 10 years, and then the weight wasn't as big between number two and number three, and that may be a factor here. Um, at the same time, I would argue, having seen Way of Water, that there's an argument to be made that Way of Water is disappointing enough where you don't want to see the third one. I was not a fan of it. I know that you didn't like it either, and we'll speak about it when we talk about Fire and Ash. The other thing I'll say though is I do wonder if Academy members are gonna look at the Avatar movies differently because he has invested so much of his time in developing them, and so it kind of feels like not necessarily a um a sequel to make more money, but instead a long, gestating passion project. Um and it's it almost feels like maybe they'll be able to take it more seriously um because he hasn't done anything in between and he's only worked on it for that long. So I guess what I'm trying to say is diminishing returns in all, one of the major factors that benefits Way of Water is that he spent all that time working on it. That year when Way of Water gets nominated, if you remember correctly, Ryan Kugler was up for Wakanda Forever, right? And you got diminishing returns again. It missed the best picture in favor of Way of Water, right? And they're both kind of like Disney movies coming from the Disney camp. Um, and um Ryan Kugler um sort of is this year, finally, funnily enough, he's uh in a better position to get in with an original piece of entertainment. But for you know, you never know if what sort of ended up breaking for Way of Water is the fact that a voter went and said, Okay, well, I have maybe one more spot left. It'd be good to put in another Hollywood blockbuster, a Hollywood movie that made a bunch of money. Um, it helps theaters, it helps the box office, it helps the industry. Um, if that's the case and I have to choose between Wakanda Forever and Way of Water, I would rather nominate Way of Water because I've waited 10 plus years to do it versus Wakanda Forever was just here in 2018 for the first Black Panther movie. And so what I'm saying is that I don't I don't think Avatar is your normal sequel. I think Avatar has this gravitas of coming from this maestro. It's not uh it's original IP, it's his original idea, it's not based on anything else, it's not based on Wizard of Oz, it's not based on um uh uh a uh respected uh text or respected novel like Dunes. It's not based on um a Marvel superhero. Um there's this, I think, aura to it that sure it's lost some of its glow, but the question is, is it completely flat now? Is it completely dull? Um Right.
SPEAKER_01:And I but I also think that I I mean to your point, James Cameron is not, for example, John M. Chu. You know, uh as you were saying, you know, I think he carries this clout for his uh, you know, uh the the thumbs he's made in the industry, the the impact he's made in the industry. And I think that went a long way to having Avatar Way of Water get nominated for Best Picture, as you're insinuating. Um, you know, the question is can that happen for this third installment? Are they kind of you know done with it for right now, ready to give it, you know, you know, not a not a best picture nomination? Also, does the film itself have enough, as you were saying, gravitas to land or to be among the very select group of films that get that are you know sequential that have uh several iterations and all of them get nominated for best picture, like The Godfather. Is Avatar at that level? I'm not so sure. Right, you know, but I also think that there's something attached to these Avatar films that I also think you were insinuating, and it's this, you know, they're in a way synonymous with this idea of um advancing the technology in the film industry um uh to such a great extent that you know I think that that carries with it some power and some compelling uh persuasive um argument for including it in these big awards.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, no, I I agree. And so I guess what's left to talk about is what was your impression after seeing the film?
SPEAKER_01:Well, you know, I wasn't looking forward to seeing the film personally. Um, I'm not a big Avatar fan. I certainly did not like Avatar Way of Water. Um I thought there were a lot of flaws with that. I thought it was one of the weakest films I saw that year, um, which is quite a statement to say. Um, but I will say I was kind of surprised with this new iteration. You know, it's not I don't consider the Avatar films high art. Uh, you know, that's another thing that's you know, James Cameron has his sort of you know, quote unquote groupies, you know, that are very, you know, in love with his craft and again his place in the in the in the in in the market, in the film industry. You know, Gambit O'Toro loves Avatar and has, I think, said in the past that the Avatar films are masterpiece and together separate, they're masterpieces. I couldn't disagree more. Um, but I will say that I, you know, I was I was pleasantly surprised in that I thought it was enjoyable enough as a popcorn confection. Um and uh, you know, I had some fun. I had a much fun time, much more fun time watching this one than the the C. Sequel. Um uh I maybe I just don't remember Way of Water. I didn't necessarily feel that it was treading the same water. Again, I you know, don't take my word for it. I don't remember Way of Water that much. Um, but I enjoyed the villain in this one. Una Chaplin does a fantastic job. Um, she was the highlight of this for sure. I loved seeing uh what they did with that character, and I think she brought a lot of oomph to the project. Yeah. Um, and you know, I was I was I was I was uh you know it was pleasant enough to go, you know, and have those three hours. It didn't feel like a four-hour film, like the way that the way of water felt for me personally. Um again, you know, I think the weakest part of the Avatar films are always the script, and that's still present here. You know, I don't think James Cameron and his Auvoir is known for having you know the best uh writing. Right. That's still very true here. But you know, I was a little surprised by it actually.
SPEAKER_02:And I think we have a lot of similar feelings on it, actually. I did not enjoy Way of Water at all, but I kind of felt that again, there was a lot more um involving aspects to this film. So I encourage anyone to go and watch it over, you know, the hot and break, and I'm sure most people will, it'll continue to make money. Um, but I will say if you didn't like Way of Water, there's you know, as people say, it's more of the same. If you didn't like Way of Water, there's a chance you like this movie a little bit better. Um, it still feels infinitely long. Um, and and the movie certainly feels like every time that the movie feels a little bit flat, there's just enough of a little bit of an injection of something interesting to keep you involved. And so I kind of told you like this movie does not know the word quit for better or worse. Um, at the same time, I agree Una Chaplin was a total scene stealer. Um, and they keep doing great stuff. The visual effects are great, the sound is good. Um, you know, I think it was sort of tricky because as I was watching the film, when I was done watching it, I sort of debated, okay, well, the law of diminishing returns, but I don't know where to take the nomination out of because watching the film, it's as good to earn those same four nominations, which is the last nominations for Voyage of Water were Visual Effects, Sound, Production Design, and Best Picture. And by the way, James Cameron did not go to the ceremony. Um now I think you can make an argument after seeing it that it is as strong a contender in visual effects and it should win that category.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, very easy.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, especially after that short list. Um, sound is still a very strong contender. Production design, I thought, is still a very strong contender. And best picture. Again, it does the things that Way of Water does, unless, again, they're going to say it's less impressive because you know, less than 10 years passed between part two and part three, as opposed to part one and part two. Right. Um, I will say that I think that maybe what something that hurt us for Way of Water is that we still had maybe fond memories of Avatar in 09, which seemed like forever ago. And so it just felt like a completely different direction from what that first one was. Um, versus here we kind of had that recent disappointment of what Way of Water was. And I think Fire Nash sort of had more redeeming qualities about it.
SPEAKER_01:I agree, but I also feel like you know, you had mentioned this in a previous episode that for the for you know that last spot or two, they might consider including a money-making, you know, um franchise film, and maybe they'll have to choose between Wicked and Avatar. That seems to be like the places the the two they'd have to choose between. And I always told you, well, you know, there's the third option, and it's not nominate either of them and nominate a film that they actually like, even if that means snubbing a you know franchise that made a lot of money. You know, after seeing this film, I certainly agree with you. I think it's good enough it to get the same nominations, but I would go further and I would say that if we have to compare Avatar to Wicked, I just think that Avatar is clearly the better film. I think it's clearly the the stronger of the two. And again, I'm gonna reiterate it's not, you know, a flawless film by any means. But I think that a uh objective uh viewer who sees both films, I think will come away thinking that the better of the two is Avatar. So if they're gonna choose between the two, I think that they would choose Avatar. And let's say they don't choose Avatar, then it's the third option I had brought up several episodes ago, which is that they're not gonna nominate either of them. And they're gonna go with a film, maybe it's a foreign film, maybe it's a lesser uh an independent film.
SPEAKER_02:We talked about maybe these outlier spectacle movies, blockbuster movies, F1, and weapons, maybe they can get some traffic. Possibly, possibly. I think something that you mentioned was easy, I mean interesting, which is do they punish Avatar and say, I'm not nominating three chapters of the same thing? And they say maybe I'd rather nominate the second wicked than the third Avatar, because as you said, I can't think of too many quote unquote third iterations that score on nomination. You have Lord of the Rings, but they're they're based on individual texts, right? But you mentioned a great one, which was Godfather, right? And so do you do that again? I don't even know if people remember nominating the Godfather Part Three fondly. Right. And so I'd have to really think about if how many films accomplish, you know, the nomination on the third chapter. It's interesting to think about like, can they really snub most of the bigger blockbusters this year and just you know, sort of say that the only really big blockbuster that I'm going to nominate is Sinners, because it is such a a big achievement in terms of you know uh what it meant to critics, what it meant to audiences, what it means to the industry, um, it being an original blockbuster. Do you really think they're capable of making that decision?
SPEAKER_01:I I absolutely do. Um, I think the Academy shows time and time again, if you really look at the nitty-gritty of it all, you know, the ugly and the maybe a little less ugly, they tend to do what they want to do. And it doesn't really matter what's appropriate or what isn't. It's what they like or what they don't like. They don't care that they're gonna snub this or that if it means that they did they wanted to snub this or that, and that they felt more strongly about that or this. Um, and so I 100% think, and I think in a way it would be fitting for a year like this, where so many films underperformed at the box office because of the economic situation, you know, the you know, the sociopolitical uh landscape of the current day. It would be fitting to have a best picture list of contenders that kind of excluded most of those because you know there weren't a lot of success stories. Right. You know, you might have had a successful, you there aren't a lot of you know, quote unquote centers or weapons where you have the best of the best of both worlds, critics and box office. You sometimes had the wickets, which was good box office, mediocre critics, right? And even Avatar, good box office, mediocre critics. Right. So in a way, it's sort of fitting to have a list of 10 that completely excludes the thing that everyone struggled with this year, right?
SPEAKER_02:And I think on that point, I will say that as I said, Avatar Fire and Ash makes close to 100 mil um for the first weekend. I don't know, keep making money, but that close to 100 mil is a significant drop from the one around 140 that Way of Water made. And so there's there's every reason to believe that at least here domestically, it will not reach the same highs as Way of Water.
SPEAKER_01:Right. But I also want to add to that, you know, since we're putting the pitting these two films together, you know, a very similar statement, sentiment can be said about Wicked, which had a terrific opening box office. Um, I it certainly beat Avatar in that department, uh, did spectacularly. However, the week since that, it sort of have been has been having bigger drops in the box office per week than the first one had, kind of giving us this impression that you know the excitement was there, but everyone kind of rushed to see it, you know, in the first few opening weekends. Um, and it's had sort of diminishing returns ever since. And that film will also not reach the highs of the first week. And I think that part of that is uh again, similarly, you know, the social economic landscape of you know America today. I think that has a part to play in that as well. However, you know, the same can be said about Wicked is my point.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and I think, you know, to just to add on to that a little a little bit, um Avatar With uh Fire and Ash globally has already, I believe, outgrossed Wicked. Um I'm sorry, not globally, but internationally has outgrossed Wicked internationally, which is kind of interesting. Um and actually F1 has outgrossed them both internationally. Um and so I guess what I'm trying to say is that if if you uh if you agree um that maybe the the playing field is a little bit more even between you know poor critical reception, a third chapter, money sort of being uneven. Because then at the end of the day, you know, I think wicked right now is at 320, 320 domestically, which is really impressive. It's like, you know, I think right outside the top five, or maybe even even in the top five. But when you see that centers for the budget that it had made 280 in the US box office, that's 10 times more impressive, even if the number is lower. You know, in context, that number is way more impressive. Um, and so I I do wonder if you're right there. And maybe we can just see a year where the only blockbuster they're gonna nominate is the only blockbuster, quote unquote, worth nominating. Now, we talked about it after the screening. Is the secret weapon here for Avatar, Fire and Ash, the fact that this would be a post apostamous nomination for producer John Landau, who passed away before this film um could be released. Um, and well, again, that's uh another um passing, sad passing that we had in 2024. Um, John Landau winner for Titanic, nominator for Avatar at Way of Water as well. Um and there's a wonderful sort of um, you know, it's a really bright um moving moment of an homage in the film when you go check it out and you'll see that homage to John Landau. Um, you know, is that maybe gonna help Avatar get a nomination and sort of give you know John Landau another sort of um Oscar nomination um and sort of thank him for everything that he's done for the industry, not just with this movie, but really throughout his career and throughout his collaborations with James Cameron.
SPEAKER_01:That's very possible, yeah.
SPEAKER_02:That's that's what I thought. I kind of felt in my gut that I would rather hold on to Avatar number 10 because again, it does more of the same. It does it successfully, it looks like it's gonna win visual effects, the money is still good.
SPEAKER_01:And we've talked about it that typically you see the winners for these categories, they end up being the best picture nominis. You know, so if we think that Avatar has such a great opportunity, you know, very likely to win visual effects, the likelihood of it being included in the best picture 10, you know, is stronger. You know, I think some people might issue the cre the critique that the same can be said for wicked, but I'm not sure the same can be said for wicked because I don't think it's a slam dunk to win costume. I don't think it's a slam exactly. Um, or just with the competition, you because you have Frankenstein and Sinners there, which I think will be competitive. I don't think it's a slam dunk to win production design either. I don't think it's a slam dunk to win original song. So it's not the same.
SPEAKER_02:I really think its most competitive category is costume design, and I think that something that Avatar has is I have I have no idea who can even give it a run for its money in visual effects. Right. You know, that category is I think essentially done.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, so my guess I to finish off the discussion on Avatar is are you still pegging diminishing returns for the film? And if so, what are you thinking? You're thinking three.
SPEAKER_01:I right now I'm thinking three, yes. Um, right now I agree with you. I'm a little comfortable hanging on to it at number 10, strictly at number 10. Um, and the easiest thing would be that it does have a depreciation, and instead of four, it gets three, and that's best picture, maybe visual effects and sound, and then misses production design because they're you know bored and want to move on to something else, or it gets three and it misses best picture. Um, and in that case, I wouldn't go to Wicked, I would go to a 10th film that had some passion.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:And that's usually a film that is more critically acclaimed and uh is about something that uh resonates or registers with them. Yeah, that those are the two options I'm between.
SPEAKER_02:I think both of both of those are very possible scenarios. I'm not gonna dismiss the possibility that it does not go lower and that it matches the same for and it gets production design and picture. I don't think that's you know out of the realm of possibility. And we'll talk about what was essentially a big sort of bounce back for Wicked when those when we discussed the shortlists, um, which was a good day for Wicked. Um, but before that, um, we're gonna discuss another film we had an opportunity to screen, right? Which is The Voice of Heinrichab.
SPEAKER_01:So that is uh The Voice of Hin Rajab is the official submission of Tunisia. Um, as you said, I went to Venice, sort of a docudrama. Um, the director, Kautor Benhania, has been nominated before, I believe in 2000 and 2023, she had her documentary nominated um for daughters. For daughters, yes. And if you don't know what the film is about, um, it's actually based on a true story where the Red Crescent, which is an extension of the Red Cross, um, uh they receive the volunteers receive an emergency call, and it's a six-year-old girl who's trapped in a car under fire in Gaza. Uh, this is happening to a Palestinian family um that's sort of caught in the crosshairs with the Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip. Um, and interestingly enough, you know, the film uses the actual recording that was made by this six-year-old girl uh named Hin Rajab. Um, and it's probably the most piercing aspect of the film. You know, it really hits you when you hear this young little girl's voice pleading for rescue. Um, it's really soul-shattering uh to hear, to witness in a way. Um, and so the film is sort of a reconstruction of that event, of that moment of receiving that call and trying to get the rescuers out to her and failing. Um, it's uh incredibly tragic and obviously timely. I know that when it went to Venice, we've talked about it. There were some rumors that uh members of the jury were split and wanted some a portion of the members wanted to give it the Golden Lion. You know, uh there were those rumors uh that maybe Fernanda Torres was one of them that wanted to award that film, and uh Alexander Payne was part of the other portion that didn't.
SPEAKER_02:Wanted to give it to his friend, Jim Jarmish, who was also an amazing filmmaker, to be fair.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and you and I called that that film would win. Uh at least I I think I predicted it, and so you know, we were right about that. Um, but this film did end up winning the second prize, uh, which I think is the grand the grand prize. I believe, yeah, at the silver line, I believe. No, no, the grand jury prize. Excuse me, yeah. Um and uh, you know, we've talked in the past also how as of late there should be at least one Venice title, a film that wins. That's major.
SPEAKER_02:I would say that that is a major thing to consider as you discuss the film, which is that not since 2015 have we had no film from the film selected amongst the winners in Venice not end up on the best picture list. Usually, at least one of them, for example, 2016, uh Lala Land, I believe, won the prize for best actress at a stone, right? And Lala Land got into Best Picture. Roma won uh the Golden Line and Shape of Water, and so usually since 2016, you will see a film that wins a prize at Venice wind up in the best picture list. And because Jim Jarmus does not have a shot in hell this year, I mean again, and I he's an amazing filmmaker, and I'm sure the film is wonderful. Because of that, you do not have very many options, and one of them to consider is certainly Heen Rajab. I mean, it's Heen Rajab, the smashing machine, but that's what it would have been 10 years since we have seen no film that won something at Venice show up at Best Picture.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Since Jim Jarmish, as you were saying, won the uh top prize and the other films that might have even competed for that slot that you're saying, the Venice slot in Best Picture would have been the smashing machine, which is you know somewhere else completely entirely. As a winner, you mean right? And then there's just the voice of Hinraja because the other titles that won something were you know very foreign titles. Below the clouds, La Grazia. Right. So really those are the only ones to pick from. And this would be on paper, it sounds like the best option, you know, given that plan B is attached, and you have people like Alfonso Corone and Joaquin Phoenix, and people like Brad Pitt and uh Jeremy Kleiner and D D Gardner from Plan B.
SPEAKER_02:Um you got producer, a producer from the zone of interest on there, you got uh an Oscar winning producer from Navalny on there as well. So the team is really good.
SPEAKER_01:Um, I will say that those are all reasons why, if you you know have been keeping track of our predictions, we actually had it in our best picture 10 for a little bit.
SPEAKER_02:We held on to it for a long time. Now, that being said, it obviously is not a favorite, at least among precursors, for, for example, international film, where it has not been placing very often. Um, it did place, I believe, quite pivotally at the Golden Globes, which is important, right? It ended up qualifying on the shortlist, which is also massive. Um, but we'll talk about the shortlist in a little bit. But you know, for example, it did miss sound, and some of the brilliance of that film is the way they were able to use the actual recording um and sort of have it be um at a high enough quality and a high enough standard um so that you get um enveloped into the story, yeah. Um, but so that it's also, you know, it feels credible that you're in that situation, right? 100%, and it did miss that sound shortlist, which we had sort of pegged, maybe that that would it would show up there. Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_01:And there was another foreign film that did really well, which we'll get into. Um, and so you know, it's a very compelling film, and like I said, the team behind it is, you know, very uh reputable. Yeah. Um I don't know, how did you feel in terms of you know, where you can now that you've seen it, where you see it landing in the Oscar race?
SPEAKER_02:I honestly feel like it is a film that is strong enough to make the 10. And I'm not sure how I like the how I like the possibility of breaking that streak of getting a Venice uh having a Venice winner not show up on the list at all.
SPEAKER_01:Well, and you know, just to be fair, I will say that prior to 2015 it does get a little spotty what we're talking about in terms of Venice winners making into Best Picture. Yes. You know, for example, I remember the year of um Birdman, for example, yeah, the year before. Uh, which was the talk of Venice that year, didn't win anything from the jury, which I believe was headed by Alexander Desplau, if I'm not, if I'm if I'm not mistaken. I believe you're right. Um, it didn't win anything uh in that uh in that ceremony. Um and uh no winners appeared. You're right.
SPEAKER_02:So you know it was a bit spotty before 2015, but I think the 10-year streak is pretty significant. Um now I'll tell you something else. Do you even have another Venice movie getting into this top 10? Because one thing is no Venice winner, but even in 2015, you know, you had Spotlight, which showed um out of competition at Venice, it was the best picture winner. And in 2014, Birdman did not win an award at Venice and it won Best Picture at the Academy. And so the idea that there isn't going to be a film that has a little bit of Venice DNA behind it, you know, that is even tougher to believe. So I think show up somewhere in Best Picture. Exactly. So certainly I think that's a good one.
SPEAKER_01:Well then we open the field a little bit more. You get films like uh Testament of Ann Lee, perhaps which could not have had a worse day at the short list when we discuss it.
SPEAKER_02:But I mean, what what else is there? Right. Where else can we go? And so like Begonia focused features. Begonia is not necessarily in the most enviable position right now. But if are we really going to say that we're not going to include a winner and we're not even going to include anyone that was in competition or out of competition, that is pretty extreme.
SPEAKER_01:Another thing that I want to bring people's attention to is that the film actually was nominated for best film at the European Film Awards. And that's no small thing. And I'll tell you why. Because as we've said, and as many people by now are very well aware of, there's a lot more of an international presence in the Academy. And I think we saw that this year in the uh short lists, where a lot of films that did well at the European Film Awards and in certain categories repeated with the shortlists. So Surratt did really well at the European Film Awards, getting cat getting recognized in categories like sound design and it made an inmate sound design. You know, uh if you if you look at the two side by side, the European Film Awards and the shortlists, there's some DNA. There's some there's some DNA between them. And so don't overlook that. You know, that that is a big get for the film. And it shows that there is uh foreign passion behind the film. And in a year where we're clamoring for, like we've talked previously in this episode, a ninth or tenth spot between films that we're not that crazy about. Should we include them or not? A passion vote is really what's gonna matter.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I a hundred percent agree with you. Um, I think you asked me where do I see it right now? I think the Venice winner stat is pretty good. I think the Venice participation stat is also pretty massive. I think you brought up a great point with the European Film Awards. It still scored a best picture nomination there, despite it not being as obviously as well rewarded, even in that group, as for example, Surat or Sentimental Value. Um, the other thing I'll mention is the top eight films that you mentioned, right, which you feel most comfortable with, right? I believe, you know, uh you're devoid of some history there, right? Everything is more or less, you know, fictional-ish, right? And I think that Hin Rajab also has the benefit of being, you know, based on a true story. And so, you know, a movie it kind of reminds me of again is sort of like the late breaking film from last year, September 5th, right? Which was also excellent and had enough quality to be nominated for editing and for sound, and it just got a screenplay nomination. But again, what I see here is sort of um an insufficient campaign. I think the film is certainly strong enough to be nominated, and I think there's too many sort of green flags to sort of say it's an also ran. I think it's sort of uh a sleeper movie. Um, but I don't know if there's again with all those international voters, are they really not gonna nominate something from Venice, as you said? Yeah. So it that's where I'm at with the film right now.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, basically, you know, uh, I wouldn't sleep on it if I were you. It's certainly a contender, it certainly will be competitive. Will it have enough to muster its way into the number 10th spot? It's unclear, it's not definitive. Um, but it certainly can happen. Now, I will say that it seems like you know, an amazing feat for watermelon pictures. Yeah, and for Willa, yeah. Right. And I will say that Watermelon Pictures did really well at the short list because and we'll get into it in a foreign language film. Three of the films are in the top 15.
SPEAKER_02:Yep. Um, now I was gonna say on its best day, Heen Rajab is a two-nomination movie. Right. Best picture and best fore and best foreign film. Because it did not make it into sound like you and I thought it had a shot. Again, the sound it did get nominated at the European Film Awards for sound. Absolutely, but it did not show up in the Oscar shortlist. That sound, remember, folks, is being um sort of um led by the um Oscar uh nominated uh sound designer of All Qui on the Western Front, um, but still did not get shortlist at shortlisted at the Oscar despite that European Film Award nomination. Um but so two nominations, which funnily enough are the two nominations, or close to the two nominations that the other plan B movie got last year, yeah Nickel Boys, screenplay and picture.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and so like is there enough like fanfare for Plan B and these movies that they support and that they you know throw their weight behind to like sort of get that last tenth spot, you know, you know, and I think that's another thing to consider because if we're gonna take out Avatar and we're not gonna put a big franchise money-making film in that last spot, you know, I really like the idea of going for a film again that's gonna muster that those passion votes, but also I would like there to be a film from a studio that's not already represented in the best picture lineup because this is an odd year where we're getting so many studios repeating oms. And I think that goes to show the kind of year that it's been where the strongest films were came out from a very select group of studios. So we have Netflix getting in with possibly two films, we have Neon getting in with possibly two films, we have Warner Brothers getting in with two films, uh, we have Netflix getting in with two films. Um I don't know if I already said that, but uh Focus Features is one of the few films that might be getting in, you know, uh that's you know, only getting in once, possibly. And that's if we don't include the Venice stat. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, if we include the Venice stat, maybe they get two in also. Right.
SPEAKER_01:So I like the idea of that ninth and tenth spot being, you know, films from different studios that isn't just Netflix and Neon, etc. A24s on Twitter. That's a very good disappointing. That's a very good point. Um and you know, there is Avatar, which is, you know, um uh 20th century studios, I mean aka Disney, right? Right. Um, but you know, Watermelon Pictures would be a different studio making it to a top 10, it would be a groundbreaking moment for them because to get to make it all the way to best picture. Right. Most people haven't even heard of watermelon pictures, even though they have terrific films on their lineup year after year.
SPEAKER_02:It would be watermelon and Willa, and Plan B is there for support, but obviously plan B is the one that's really well connected. Right. Um, but I can see the headline now where like, you know, three foreign films actually do make it in for best picture, except the third one is not a Neon movie. It's actually a movie from Watermelon and Willa. Right. And it's this movie called uh Heen Rajab. And then also, you know, Heen Rajab spoils the perfect score that Neon is trying to get in foreign film, right?
SPEAKER_01:Which most people are pegging at this point for Neon to go perfect into foreign film. Most people are pegging Surratt and other choice, and then the three obvious ones, which are the secret agent. The three locked ones. Yeah, Sentimental Valley, and it was just an accident. Um, yeah, it is uh, I think poised to spoil that lineup. You and I have been feeling very strongly about that. I don't see how this movie doesn't get an eye for foreign language. Well, I think it can happen, but I don't I don't think it's likely.
SPEAKER_02:There are gonna be some people like Alexander Payne who um don't necessarily see the movie as the most creatively ambitious or artistically ambitious. And there's maybe some merit to that.
SPEAKER_01:Or maybe that that it's concept first. Yeah, you know, before actual, you know, before you know a drum uh a dramatization.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um but I'm I kind of agree with you. My gut says that it will spoil the perfect score for Neon, on top of the fact that I don't think anyone, I think within the industry wants to see Neon get a perfect score in foreign film.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Right. So certainly I I like that what you said about that headline of you know a third foreign film getting in, but it's neither neon or uh well, Neon already has two, actually.
SPEAKER_02:It's it's it's it's just not from Neon. It's not from Neon. The short list would make you think that if there's gonna be any foreign film that gets in, it's gonna be Neon's.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And and and I think it's a little bit tricky, you know, because there is a third already foreign language film that is well positioned as of now to break into the top 10, and that's uh the secret agent. Um and so that would be a third foreign film from Neon already. And so possibly if the secret agent were to get in and Neon were to get in three best picture nominees, which is huge, yeah. Um, then we're talking about four foreign films getting into Best Picture. Does it sound like the Academy is there already where four foreign films getting high for Best Picture? I mean, we've been inching up slowly. You know, we we we started with no foreign films getting in, then you know, one get one getting in. Right. And then just last year, I believe there were two, weren't there? Or certainly in 2023 there were two. Right. Um, and so we've been inching in that direction. Maybe this is the year where we just go and almost have the list as foreign films.
SPEAKER_02:I know certain hotheads are gonna have a whole field day with that, but it could happen. I would not I would not be surprised if it did happen.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Okay, now let's move on and talk about the short lists with which came out this week and were our first impression of what the industry is gravitating towards, what academy members specifically and importantly are gravitating towards or what they're not gravitating towards. Yeah. Um, some things off we're gonna go category by category, but some things off the top of my head. Uh, Surratt had an amazing, an amazing day and showed up in several categories. I want to say that Surratt is, in a way, to me, this year, the sort of curse that keeps on giving because this is a film that we had the opportunity to possibly see in Can, which we went to earlier this year, and every single person that we talked to told us about how fantastic that film was. It was the talk of Can, and we just weren't able to catch a screening for it. And we thought, oh, well, we'll know we'll catch it later. And all these months later, here we are. We still haven't seen it, we're still dying to see it, and now it's the darkest of horses. And so, it's in a way, it there's there's this frustrating thing with this film that looks like is so amazing that we had the opportunity, it escaped our grasp, and it's still escaping our grasp. Um, but uh so Surrat had an amazing, an amazing day.
SPEAKER_02:I think we tweeted something like that, which is the winner of the Oscar shortlist was Surratt, because no film was pegged for so little and overperformed as much. And it is super meaningful. And we had actually talked about it because we predicted a lot of these categories, and we'll go through that. But we had talked about Surratt's the sound work on it is just too good to ignore. And we we've heard this ever since can and critics have had their say already, and it's certainly one of the most celebrated sound designs of the year. Um, everyone says you have to watch another theater, and I could not um advise uh listeners more to go watch it in a theater, go watch it in in surround. Um, but we had talked about hey, foreign films and sound, they they get in more often than you think. Al Quiet on the Western Front, Amelie, Zone of Interest, Zone of Interest. And when they get in, most of the time, yeah, they are best picture movies. Yeah, you know, let's say the exception here is maybe Amelie. Amelie would have been a top 10 best picture movie, no doubt. 100%. And so we sort of said, you gotta be careful with Surrat in Best Picture. And when you look at the other mentions it got, it just it it raises that argument even more. Um, and then we said, like to ourselves, Surrat in Best Picture, well, you know who's producing that? The Amador brothers.
SPEAKER_01:So you have to watch out for Surratt yeah, 100%. You have to look out for Surratt. I think it's one of those uh uh contenders really eyeing for those last one or two spots that we're talking about. You know, when we're talking about, like I said, and like I said with the voice of Himverjab, when we're talking about Avatar and Wicked, why not go to a film that clearly is resonating with them in several branches? I mean, casting, casting, cinematography, sound design. Uh, you know, it was sort of king at the European Film Awards, too. Yeah. Um, so you know, why not, you know, uh put your attention on a film that you feel passionate about that again is clearly down the line, right? Really resonating with these members.
SPEAKER_02:I and I would go further and I would say that based off this short list, I could not feel any more confident. Not that Surratt's gonna be knocked for best picture, I don't know about that yet. But that had Surrat been campaigned by a studio, a distributor, that was dedicating 100% of their resources behind the film, it will likely be a top seven movie by now. Um, because it is Neon, and Neon has very clearly treated it no better than fourth, and let's be honest, fifth on their list of priorities, it is not faring better. But after that day at the European at the European Film Awards, after getting all these mentions at the Oscar shortlists, a studio, for example, like Sony Picture Classics or Mubi or Moobie would have taken this movie into a best picture nomination, so much so that if it is not nominated, I think it is certainly the fault of Neon possibly being overburdened by too many campaigns. Right.
SPEAKER_01:100% I 100% agree with that. It was by far, I think, the biggest success story of the short list. I know people want to say that the biggest success was Sinners and Wicked for Good, you know, having uh so many mentions and you know those are you know momentum shifts a momentum shift for Wicked for Good, but really it was expected. I think it got everywhere that it's right, but it got everything that we expected it to.
SPEAKER_02:These lists are designed for Wicked for Good and for sinners, they should be doing well here, right? And so I I will say that, you know, hats off to the Wicked campaign. They did not lose a mention that they were supposed to get, which is great, and it's a total momentum shift, total bounce back, gives them a little bit of win in their sales. But let's be honest, these lists were created to give the Wicked for Goods and sinners an advantage and not to cater to the Surrats.
SPEAKER_01:100%, 100%. So those uh were the two films that lead. I don't know if they both got the equal amount of mentions, but they were they were both at the time. I think they're both at eight. Right. So they're both at the top, but again, it's it's it was expected. They got everywhere that we predicted and that most people predicted. Um, and Lee was completely shut out. And I just want to mention that talking about Bad Studios, um, you know, we had got the privilege of seeing the film uh a few months ago, and I've talked about it profusely on our shows. Um, it's one of my favorite films of the year. Um, but we very distinctly, I remember distinctly that we talked about it. You know, this was a film that I saw and I was sure that would be polarizing, and that its best shot was actress, period. Yeah. We we went into an argument, you know, into a discussion of how polarized us, yeah. You thought, you know, yeah, it's a good film. I'm seeing possibly picture and I saw six.
SPEAKER_02:I saw six, including original score, snub from the shortlist, song, snuff from the shortlist, cinematography, snuff from the shortlist. Right. All I have left is costume and production design. Right.
SPEAKER_01:Right. So we we had that difference of opinion, and again, I loved it. And it's one of my favorites, and I knew that it was going to have a hard time. Uh uh, because it's a polarizing film, because it's a film that requires you to get onto that wavelength. I've talked about it before. I fully understood that this is an Amanda Safried lone nominee movie from the get-go, and I think that I've been proven right with these short lists. Uh the film is underperforming left and right. You calling it, yeah. Um, and so really it's not a shocker to me that it did so poorly here.
SPEAKER_02:Well, I I'm gonna go ahead and say that to me, and again, you like the film more than I did. I enjoyed the film a lot, and I recommend everyone check it out, especially on 70 millimeter. I can't, I can't wait. I hope they hope they could show that so we can see it. Glorious. Um, but I'm a little surprised by the snubs. But I all I can all I can attribute that to is poor campaigning from Searchlight, who just does not give an F this year because they don't really, they're not really supporting any film. Um, I think they're exhausted and gassed from getting Bob Dylan in there last year with Complete Unknown and um getting a real pain win with Kieran Colkin. They just don't have the stamina anymore to do it. I think we tweeted about that. Um But I did not think that it was gonna get, I think what, completely shut out from all these. I mean, when you have a cinematography list that did not go the full 20, by the way, right? And it could not make it in. And I I definitely tweeted about this. Uh Songsung Blue made it in. And again, no shade to Amy Vincent, who's who's wonderful and who has had great work. I mean, eats bio. Um, but Songs and Blue should not be there over Testament of Band League. That's just I think the studio's fault.
SPEAKER_01:I I I I have to differ with you there. I don't think it's the studio's fault. I think it's the film. The film is like as I said, it's it's it's it's going to be a polarizing film, and Searchlight is not the studio to pull it off.
SPEAKER_02:Dime My Love got into cinematography. You cannot say that. I don't think that you can get more polarizing than Die My Love. But the cinematographer. Well, I mean, so you think it's because Seamus is Seamus? Yes. I mean, he's brilliant in the beautiful film.
SPEAKER_01:But I would never have pegged that that film was going to get shortlisted for anything. I think it matters that it's Seamus McGarvey 100%. I think if Seamus McGarvey has shot the testament of Ann Lee on 70 millimeter, it would have been um it would have been shortlisted in cinematography. That's who you know, maybe so. But and also I think that that's true. And we talked about it after the movie. I think that's true, you know, for all the texts for Anne Lee, the production designer, the costume designer, the makeup and hairstyling, the makeup and hairstylists. Um, you know, they're not really really well known figures in those uh departments. And I think unfortunately for those categories, it matters who you are. You're seeing it play out, you think 100%. And so um, again, I was just not surprised. I think it's a bummer because it's one of the most beautiful films in all the departments. I mean, you know, uh sonically, visually, and uh it's just not being able to break through because it's that, you know, uh it's sort of an anomaly.
SPEAKER_02:You think they should have released it earlier, maybe?
SPEAKER_01:I think it needed a better studio. I think it needed a different studio. Maybe movie. Movie kind of has some experience last year with the substance kind of you know, uh excavating uh a path that hasn't been done yet and being successful in that. Maybe they could have done something interesting. Um, but this is a film that again is is gonna be so polarizing. And I can't imagine I cannot imagine this film doing well at the box office. You know, unfortunately, that's sort of the kind of you know landscape we're in. It deserves to do well at the box office, but it won't. Um and uh I think that's what we're seeing play out here. So that was a that that was not a surprise to me personally. You know, the casting category was such a letdown. You know, uh it was such a letdown. It brings to mind the question, why even have a casting category? You know, it's basically the same 10 films, minus a few uh interesting exceptions like Surratt The Secret Agent, which has an amazing ensemble and an amazing ensemble. That's um that would be amazing if it were to get in. You know, it's it's a pretty boring list. Well, there were some interesting snubs there, right?
SPEAKER_02:Right, right. I mean, I I for one was surprised to say the least that Jay Kelly did not get in here, right? And I think that that is very revealing. I I think one thing we cannot deny is that casting is important. The branch is important, and uh to remind everyone they are getting a um category this year in which to nominate their five favorite films or whatever, but the members of this branch have been voting among the academy for years, right? They just don't have uh they just don't have their own category, but they've been voting for years, and so when you see a casting category that says no to J. Kelly and yes to Frankenstein, it's very revealing. When you have a casting category that doesn't include Nouvelle Vaughn. Um, but does include Surat and the Secret Agent. It's very revealing. When you have a casting category that will still include Wicked, it's very revealing. And so the one thing I think that you cannot argue is that this will not be an important category, that it cannot that it could possibly be a prophetic category. That's what I think.
SPEAKER_01:You think that it is a prophetic category?
SPEAKER_02:I think it is because I'm not saying that the secret agent will get in. I'm saying that the secret agent mentioned among those ten is going to be pretty powerful.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Frankenstein, I do not think is going to get in for this category. I certainly don't think that it should get in for this category. But that being said, its inclusion in the 10 certainly make it seem like it is far and away the best push for Netflix. Right. Um, the same thing for Surratt. I mean, I don't think Surat's gonna make this category, but its inclusion on this list is really meaningful. Weapons got in here. I think that is really meaningful. 100%. You know, I think that when we look at the top 10 best pictures of this year, I want to come back to this category and I want to see how much overlap there is.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, that that's really cool. But you know, as you uh to your point, there were a lot of snobs. So even a film like, you know, it was just an accident, could have landed here. And I think a lot of people were hoping that it would. It didn't. We thought it would, yeah. We thought I thought it was a definite nominee for casting.
SPEAKER_02:Brilliantly cast um with a with a wonderful set of actors. I think maybe something we'll see in the future is that they're not gonna respond too much to this whole the director is the casting director thing. Yeah, they're gonna feel like I if you're a director and a casting director, you kind of have your category. It's called best director. I want to nominate casting directors here.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I think that's a very good point. So that was kind of a letdown um on that note of what you just said about weapons and missed makeup. That was surprising.
SPEAKER_02:We had discussed it though, a bunch, which was you know, the problem with weapons makeup isn't that it isn't well done. It's beautifully done, and they did a great job. The problem is that it's a movie and a makeup job that begs the argument. Why isn't the person who looks most suspicious the number one suspect from the beginning of the film? 100%. She's over there having an interview with the police, and you're gonna, you know, you're gonna say, you know, never judge a book by like it's the film that makes the argument, judge as many books by their cover as possible.
SPEAKER_01:You know, I think that's a very good point. I always had, you know, I I like weapons, I'm not as high on it as some other people, but I like it enough. I prefer you know, Barbarian more, um, his first film. But that's something that always bothered me about this film. You know, why do we have to make Amy Madigan's character look like a clown? What was the what what's the thinking? What's the story? Yeah, what's the story there besides, oh, you know what would be really creepy if she looked like a clown?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, you know, it it it's like she's obviously not trying to hide herself very well, right?
SPEAKER_01:100%. You know, I just don't feel like there's enough reasoning behind her look. And I think the film was punished for that. I think that's a really good point. And you know, it sucks because take that part of her character out when she's more, you know, without the you know, makeup and you're seeing the real, you know, demon, you know, it's really effective. Yeah, you know, that's that that those are segments of the film where the makeup really sings. Yeah, you know, and then there's the other section, which this is clown.
SPEAKER_02:Again, it's well done. I just think that the branch sort of took it out on them in terms of it didn't really serve the story, right?
SPEAKER_01:So that was surprising. I know that in uh visual effects they didn't include two films that we thought had a very good shot of making it in, which were Mickey 17 and Predators. You were a big fan of Predators. Oh, that is so disappointing. Yeah, um, you had talked about Sung Song Blue and cinematography, that was weird. Uh Sound of Falling making it to cinematography, that was really cool.
SPEAKER_02:But it did do well at the camera image. So we kind of thought I I kind of thought at the end that Sound of Falling maybe wasn't going to qualify because of the film.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I thought so too. I thought so too. For documentary films, we had some snubs. Uh a big one that got snubbed from documentary and foreign film is actually The Tale of Sulian.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. Um which we predicted in in documentary, and that's from the filmmaker who made Honeyland from North North Macedonia that broke records in 2019.
SPEAKER_01:Um Orwell was another documentary that um people have really liked.
SPEAKER_02:Which we kind of thought was not going to make it in because it was maybe a little too broad.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Um, Predators, which was one of my one of my favorite films of the year, as well. Uh unfortunately got snubbed here. MTV Films usually does well in these uh in this documentary category, not this year. Um, an international film, like we said earlier in the episode, three watermelon pictures films made it into the top 15. So people who are, you know, possibly uh chained to this idea that it will be all five for um the foreign language film uh nominees will be all neon films. You know, it begs to question well, if if watermelon pictures did so well here, don't you think they would at least get one of their nominees in? Especially when one of those films is the voice of Henry Job.
SPEAKER_02:That is an amazing point. It hadn't occurred to me now that between Neon and Watermelon, you have more than half this list. Right. Right? You have eight of 15 nominees. And so I think that we're building up the argument for watermelon crashes neon's little perfect party in the foreign film, and maybe that can even grow into something bigger. And I think that's a watermelon.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And I think and watermelon is a is a terrific studio of terrific uh films. Um and I will say that most people are going to be surprised, possibly, when we say that the short end of the stick in these neon films belongs to another choice. It's not, it was just an accident or sentimental value, those are done. It's likely not the secret agent, and it doesn't look like it's Sarah. It does not look like it's Sarah. So really, it's no other choice. Despite, you know, it's one of the best films of the year, it's one of my favorite films of the year. Um, and uh, it's doing well on the precursors.
SPEAKER_02:Um did well on the golden globes. Is it got no best picture now?
SPEAKER_01:Exactly. Despite all those things, it's fifth. It's fifth. It would seem like it. So if voice of Him Rajab is gonna spoil the party, that's the spot it takes, I think.
SPEAKER_02:You would you would think, um, but there is a lot of critical support for it. Um, again, just that idea that the distributor neon is just overburdened by too many campaigns.
SPEAKER_01:Um something that was cool. I haven't seen it yet, but I I know that a few filmmakers are big fans of, and you are too, is makeup. Uh the ugly step the ugly stepsister was able to get it.
SPEAKER_02:The single best shortlist mention of the day was the mention for the ugly stepsister in makeup. It could not be more deserved. I'm praying that it makes it into the Final Five. It is glorious and disgusting and should totally be in there and should be competitive to win, but it should at least be nominated.
SPEAKER_01:And interestingly enough, Nuremberg, you know, made had a couple of mentions. I believe it got first, I believe it made the shortlist for score. It certainly made makeup. And so that's a film that at one point you and I were predicting for best picture, um, because we were seeing that you know the audience reaction was strong with this film. And it if you see the film, it's something that's very comfortable that you could see uh a certain faction of the academy comfortably voting for very old school, very traditional. When it underperformed at the globes, which I thought was its biggest opportunity, you know, um, we sort of uh became a lot cooler on it. But you know, it had some had some resurgence here a little bit. Nice to see it being matched. I wonder if in makeup where we should see at least one nominee be, you know, a film whose makeup caters around real life figures. I wonder if a film like Nuremberg might have more mileage than a film like The Smashing Machine. Ah, it's interesting point, you know, which would be shocking for a lot of people, but possibly it's just the I mean, considering the box office, one did better than the other, even if one made more money, one still uh is more and more in profit than the other. Yeah. Um, I wonder if that's something that could be brewing. That's a good point. I think it's a solid point. Um, and just looking at the categories uh uh directly in casting, we've mentioned it. Uh for international film, we got four wrong because we predicted uh Magellan, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, that would have got documentary and foreign film. Um, A Poet and My Father's Shadow, which has been doing terrifically uh with uh certain uh precursors.
SPEAKER_02:And what I will say to that is that UK was on a streak between Santosh and the zone of interest. Um, people are really responding to My Father's Shadow. Mubi does really well here. It still couldn't get this in and only got Santa Falling in. Denmark does really well here, so that's why we thought Mr. Nobody Against Putin, it misses for the first time in a long time. And Janice, which has become sort of a favorite here, got uh flowing last year to a couple categories. Magellan still misses.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, and instead, uh they included Late Shift, which you know, I I was pretty um, you know, I I I thought I thought that was a very definite possibility. It's a film that's playing well to with uh with audiences and it had an appearance. I think it won the camera image award, um uh the cinematography award, very prestigious. Um, all that's left of you uh from Watermelon Pictures, Kokuho, which actually made a second appearance on this uh short list.
SPEAKER_02:One of the few, I think, live action films from JK. So it's great to see great to see Japan there with Kokuho. And Homebound, yeah, from India, which uh notably was executive produced by Marcus Crusesezi. That's why we had thought it was one of our initial like fifth 15 contenders when we um put up our our predictions on our website, right? Um, and yeah, great to see homebound in there as well.
SPEAKER_01:And documentary, as we mentioned, the tale of Celion Predators did not get in, as well as Natches, which we predicted, The Librarians, which was something that was pegged to get in, Suburban Fury, and instead we got Coexistence My Ass, Cutting Through Rocks, which I think was always uh uh a dark horse contender. It won the um a Sundance Award for in World Cinema on the World Cinema section uh for documentary, uh Cutting Through Rocks, folktales, which was also went to Sundance, holding Leah. What Darren Aronofsky's on that one, right? And uh won a prize at Berlin, I believe, and Mistress the Speller, which I've heard really great things about. So those fours made it in.
SPEAKER_02:Kind of interesting because I think in the documentary category, what's one thing that you did see was a lot of Sundance. Yeah, so definitely you know, Sundance still a great place to debut your documentary and to get audiences to see your documentary and a great place to start your campaign.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. And um in cinematography, we got four wrong. Unfortunately, 28 years later didn't make any list, which is which was a big bummer. Hedda didn't make it, and Lee, we've talked about, and Jay Kelly surprisingly didn't make it. And instead, five other films made it. Die My Love made it, which I'm so I couldn't be happier about. It's one of the most beautiful films of the year. Um, Song Sung Blue made it, which is a puzzle. Well, I guess considering who the cinematographer is, maybe maybe less of a puzzle.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I I don't think Amy Vincent has gotten her due, but I don't think that Song Sung Blue is her best work.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Uh Sound of Falling, which is really nice to see. Sentimental Value, which I thought was surprising.
SPEAKER_02:Meaningful.
SPEAKER_01:I think this is meaningful. And the Ballad of a Small Player, which is a good one. Which we should have seen coming. We should have seen coming.
SPEAKER_02:And I'm gonna call it right now Ballad of a Small Player is gonna could possibly surprise a lot of people and get nominated at the guild. I'm just gonna say for the cinematographers, right?
SPEAKER_01:Uh wow, that'd be that that'd be big. Um, but yeah, you're right. It's one of those where you're kind of like, why didn't I see that coming? Yeah, you know, uh, makeup, we got five wrong, uh, weapons, blue moon, Christie, 28 years later, and Wolfman did not make the cut. And instead, Kokuho, Nuremberg, the Eggly Stepsister, one battle after another, big and Marty Supreme got in. I think the one battle after another people have to watch out for. You know, even though it has basically one set piece that they're focusing on, basically, when we're talking about makeup, and that's what happens with Sean Penn's character. You know, I do think that Warner Brothers is pushing that nomination, and it could happen.
SPEAKER_02:I think there's a couple of things here. I mean, disappointing not to see some of the films um that were left out. I thought Christy would for sure be a contender here, but maybe again it just was not popular enough. It was sort of dismissed at the box office. Um, disappointing that they still have this thing against zombie films, no 28 years later, best makeup job of the year, possibly. Um, Wolfman, the legacy film is gone. Um correct me if I'm wrong, but the Alto Knights made it in. Yeah, and we had sort of said that was a dark horse all year, no weapons. I think one of the most uh uh meaningful snubs here is the one for Blue Moon because that means that there is a very real chance that Ethan Hawk is completely by himself here. I mean, we're talking about a category that recognized the makeup of Walting with Brandle last year, and I'm not knocking the makeup. What I am saying is that you don't have to have a film that has this robust Academy Award nominated makeup team. No, the makeup team of Waltzing with Brando, like Blue Moon, very modest. They just did a very um compelling, believable job. And despite all that, Blue Moon did not make it on this list. I do think that that is possibly a weak spot for the film.
SPEAKER_01:Interesting. I think that's that's very true. Uh, original score, we got five wrong. Uh Fantastic Four did not make any short list, which was a surprise, especially for Visual Effects. Northern Choice, Rental Family, and the Testament of An Lee did not get in. All of them didn't get in. And the ones that did get in were Captain America, Diane Warren's documentary got in for score, which was surprising to say the least. Uh Nuremberg got in, Wake Up Deadman got in. Did Wake Up Dead Man get in for cast at the end? I think it did. I'm not 100% positive. Not a great day for Wake Up Dead Man, but not the worst. No, not at all. Um, original song.
SPEAKER_02:Actually, we did pretty well. We only got three wrong. By the way, I just want to go ahead and correct us. I just referenced that right now. Wake Up Dead Man did not get into casting. Okay.
SPEAKER_01:All right. So it just I think it just got uh score, and that's it. It was not shut out, it was not Enly song. Uh for original song, we only got three wrong. Um, we thought that the other F1 song would get in, the one with Doja Cat that did not get in. Neither did the I uh Arco song, which is beautiful, or An Lee, as we've said. Instead, the Billy Idol song from the documentary got in. Uh the Tron, uh Ares song from Nine Inch Nails got in.
SPEAKER_02:Tron, I think, did pretty well here because I mean, well, listen, obviously they love uh Reznor and Ross. Uh, watch out for them because they were you know egregiously snub last year. They are up for song, they are up for score, and Tron got a surprising mention in visual facts. I mean, and that filmmaker, you know, he's no stranger to getting his film nominated for an Academy Award. He directed Contiki, which was nominated for Foreign Film, he directed Maleficent, the second one, um, which got on here for makeup. So don't sleep on Tron. I mean, three mentions for Tron is more mentions for Tron than for An Lee.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And the last one is from a documentary, I believe, Viva Verdi. Yeah. Um, Verdi. Viva Verdi, I think I'm saying that right. Um, and uh sound design, we actually only got one wrong there, which is kind of cool. Yeah, uh, we missed the lost bus, and instead Mission Impossible got in.
SPEAKER_02:Which again, I will say, as a fan of Dead Reckoning, Mission Impossible has no business being in this sound category. Um, I do, you know, I think it's revealing that this is its only mention. It missed out in visual effects. Which it got nominated. And last year it finally broke the streak. And when it got nominated for its first set of Academy Awards for Visual Effects and Sound, this time it only makes it into the sound shortlist. So, I mean, you know, one step forward, one step back, the franchise still gets shortlisted somewhere, but they miss out the visual effects shortlist.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And uh for visual effects, we got three wrong. Like I said, uh Predators of Badland, uh Mickey 17, and Fantastic Four are out. And instead we had F1, which we predicted would get snubbed. It did not, um, and looks pretty good right now for a nomination. Uh The Lost Bus and Tron Ares.
SPEAKER_02:And we sort of talked about this idea that now this visual effects category, not only is Avatar going to win, and you could possibly not even need to nominate anyone else but Avatar, but you have so many films nominated um shortlisted that A were not well received, um, but B, they're sort of films with supporting visual effects. They're not visual effects first, and I include their F1, um, which tries to do a lot in camera, and obviously it's not as visual effects forward as Avatar, and the same thing with The Lost Bus. And so it's gonna force us to consider, you know, these really poorly received films. Like, I think we're about to see Jurassic World, the Jurassic Series, whatever, get its first nomination since The Lost World, and that's 1997. So that's how thin this category is.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and uh just briefly in the live action short, we got eight wrong. In the documentary short, we got six wrong, and in the animated short, we got eight wrong. So those are our worst categories. These are always tough to predict, but I'd be tough. I bet I'm happy. You know, we got about half right. Now I will say we did actually pretty well in documentary short.
SPEAKER_02:And there's a lot of films that we predicted that we got a chance to see. That's great to see them there. Um, for example, The Singers was a wonderful film, and it's it's it's shortlisted. There are also a lot of films that we watched that we really wanted them to show up, and they just did not make it in, um, which is disappointing. Um, but yeah, these are always always tricky, and we're gonna work really hard to try to get as close to the final five as possible. But again, really tough categories.
SPEAKER_01:These are always the tough cat the toughest categories, and in the in a way they kind of make or break both your you know how many you get right at you know, come nominations and also how many you get right come wins. Yeah, that your bottom line here really drops through the floor. That's also one reason why I feel so passionate about getting it right. Right. All right, and what else is going on? Obviously, we've had a uh an avalanche of precursors, critics groups come out and give their wins. That again will be up on our website and our charts and our per category and our predictions, you know. And as we said when we started off the show, you know, take in the precursors. It can be fun to see who's getting in, who's not getting in, who's ahead, who's not ahead. But don't put too much stock into it because again, what critics groups think is a usually consensus anyway, and B, it's not what the industry thinks. And what prevails here, what's king here is always what the actual industry thinks, because that's actual members who are voting. And oftentimes those members who are voting are not, uh, don't have the same uh, let's say, inclinations that uh critics have. So keep that in mind. That being said, there are a few precursors that over the years um Joseph and I, you know, are very attentive to because we feel like they tap into kind of the the they think similarly to what um uh some members might think, or rather that their wins and nominees tend to parallel, you know, in a way the eventual Oscar nominees in a way that I think is interesting to statistically they have you know um higher uh statistical overlap overlap. Um so we saw some of that. Uh the Chicago film critics, that's a group that we look at. They usually, you know, when there's been surprises, they've popped up there to some degree. Dallas Fort Worth Film Critics is always a one, is always one that we we like to look at, especially because in their acting categories and directing categories, they they number them. So we get to see, you know, who's strong and who's less strong. Um, so that's a good one to look out for. London Film Critics Circle, you know, that that also um uh has some good uh pressing sometimes. Exactly. Um Southeastern Film Critics, Sefka, um, that's another one. And recently we got the Australian Academy uh give their nominees. Uh they have uh two kinds of ceremonies. One is for Australian films specifically, and then the other one is for international films and the international awards. Where you'll see a lot of the Oscar contenders pop up. And that's always a really interesting one because again, like the BAFTA, there's overlap between the Australian Academy and the Oscars. Obviously, you've seen films, you know that there's several Australian films.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, even yeah, even in America, like some our biggest some of our biggest acting actors are our Australian actors. Right.
SPEAKER_01:So they'll be part of both branches. And so it's cool to see those nominees too. Um, and uh, you know, that can be somewhat telling. You know, I remember as you said at the beginning of the show, you know, they were one of the only critics' groups to highlight Judy Dench for Belfast in a time and place where nobody was even looking at Judy Dench. And everyone was looking at Katrina Ball for that movie.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:And she ended up winning that award uh for the Australian Academy. Lo and behold, she gets nominated for the Oscar. You know, so without many precursors, by the way. Yeah. So don't sleep on you know who they mentioned and who they left out. Yeah. You know, because I think it can be somewhat telling. You know, the fact that someone like Rose Byrne, even though again, she is there's always a little bit of advantage, right?
SPEAKER_02:If you're an Australian actor.
SPEAKER_01:So Joe Ederton uh makes several appearances here. So, you know, you know, so possibly Rose Byrne getting in here might not be as you know, um prescient, possibly, but still it is a film like if a head legs that kick you. Yeah, it would be worse if she had not got it in here. Yes, I would be very talling. Yes. Um, so I think that's a good guy for Rose Byrne. Someone like Chase Infinity manages to get in here. I think that's big. That's pretty meaningful. No supporting actress got in for one battle after another. Oh, that's an I think which which and if you look, you know, um, someone like Al Fanning managed to get in, but someone like Inga didn't know If Satyr Lilias did not. And we've been on this train that, you know, possibly if there is a tour for a film, it's one battle and not sentimental value. Here we are, L gets in and Inga doesn't. We think something similarly will happen at the SAG, you know. So you it's it's really interesting to see, you know, um uh people who are included, people who are excluded.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I I I think that I I would put the Australian Academy like right there with the European Film Awards. Like you're gonna get industry overlap there between BAFTAs, Australian Academy, European Film Awards. So you have to be paying attention to all of those.
SPEAKER_01:Nuremberg got an iron for best actor and best picture people.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:So, you know, again, I'm not saying that Nuremberg is definitely gonna get nominated, but what I am saying is that there's a pocket of people who will be voting for the Academy Awards who like that movie. Yeah. Um, so that's interesting. Uh, that was just a quick note on that. I think next we're gonna move into having a preview of who we think is going to win the Critics Choice Awards, which are, I believe, on January 4th.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:And so let's start with uh Best Picture. Um, well, you know, just before that, I'll just say a quick note. You know, I think the go the Critics Choice Awards this year are happening before the Golden Globes. Um, I think I've heard a lot of people be like, oh, we're going before the Golden Globes. It's happened already. But it's happened already, I believe. It's not the first time this happens. And um, if I might be mistaken, but I don't think so. Um and I I guess I just want to reiterate something we've said. We give the critics choice a lot of flack for their kind of you know, uh gold derby, predict the Oscars mindset. And they really get their opportunity to kind of, you know, be in a way free from all those things when they go first because they're not influenced by what the Globe, who the Globes gave it to, or who the SAGs gave it to. You know, I'll never forget instances where all of a sudden, you know, someone like Jessica Chastain wins the uh Critics Choice Award right after winning the SAG Award for Best Actress, and it was clear that she was probably going to be the winner that year instead of giving it to probably the contender that they wanted to give it to, um, uh, or that they might have been more passionate about that year, which probably was Kristen Stewart Spencer.
SPEAKER_02:Um remember when they tied, I think weren't they the first ones to tie Sandra Bullock with Meryl Streep?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:What the Yeah. I mean, again, one of the most critically acclaimed films, and then one of the most middle of the road films for critics that year.
SPEAKER_01:So right, right. And and as we said, you know, that mindset I think really bites them in the butt. They gave the win to John M. Chu last year. Yeah, who didn't even show up this year as a nominee. What kind of call was that? You know, it's just it's just plain sometimes, it's just plain ridiculousness sometimes, plain, you know, buffoonery sometimes. Um, but either way, it's a televised event, so we'll, you know, uh predict we'll we'll say who we predict will win, but I think a lot of these are going to be pretty obvious. I think they're gonna name I think there's well, we'll see. I think there's some moments where they might deviate a little bit, and that's when they're quote unquote at their best. Yeah. So in 2023, yeah. In 2023, it was cool to see that they gave it to Emma Stone and Paul Dramati for best actress and best actor, because that felt like who they liked the most. They didn't give it to Killian Murphy? No, they didn't. Actually, one of the few precursors, um, televised precursors that did not. And I think that's interesting because at least that shows me that I guess Paul Dramati had that passion um to land him a win. But that's something that we see, you know, very little with this uh with this organization. Uh we'll see what happens this year when they go before the Golden Globes. Uh, that being said, I do expect them to follow consensus. And the consensus right now would be that best picture would obviously be one battle after another. Do you agree?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um God. Are we gonna say something? No. Um for best director, I think it's clearly Paul Thomas Anderson for one battle after another. Again, the I think the only possible film that they would consider is Sinners and Ryan Kugler, but I don't think that's gonna pan out. It's one battle and one battle. For actress, if they were being honest, no, they would probably give it to, in my opinion, if they were being honest, they would probably give it to um Rose Byrne because she's been doing so well in these major precursors. She doesn't have the most precursors, but she has the biggest ones. Um, but they're gonna go with who they believe is going to win the Oscar, and I 100% believe that she will, and that's Jesse Buckley for Hamlet. I agree. Um, for best actor, again, I really feel that they're gonna go with who's gonna win the Oscar here, and that is they firmly believe will be Timothy Chalamet. We'll see if they throw in a wrench here and they give it to possibly someone they rather give it to, like for example, Leo DiCaprio. Um, there's been some mumblings that he could might get his second Oscar here, especially if the whole Timothy Chalamet campaign thing doesn't work, and we haven't talked about that yet.
SPEAKER_02:Actually, I think that after last year's win at the Oscars from Mikey Madison, I think most of the critic's choice voters are gonna be on this whole um idea that one of the acting winners. She didn't win the critic's choice award. No, but she won the Oscar. Oh. And so I think that's gonna convince them that, well, at least one of my acting winners has to be the best picture winner or whatever. And so I think that's gonna end up breaking for Leo. I think Leo will end up winning the critic's choice.
SPEAKER_01:Uh we'll see. I think this is an opportunity for them. I don't think they'll take it, and I think they'll go with the front runner, which is Timothy Chalaman. I think I mean, if we're being honest, I think that Timothy, well, I guess I don't know. I was gonna say that maybe Timothy's only loss might be the sag because he just won last year. So I fully expect him to lose the sag this year, but we'll see. Um, so I'm saying Timothy, you're saying Leo. Yeah. Um, for supporting actors, I think this one's really easy. I know there are gonna be people who are gonna say Ariana Grande because they're big fans of the film and of um Ariana Grande. Some people are gonna be very high on Tayana Taylor. Um, I think this is an easy win for Amy Madigan. I would be surprised if she didn't win. Um, just because I think that it's become clear with the precursors that she's the critic's favorite. Um, and second is someone like Tayana Taylor. Um, so I'm thinking that this is a win for Amy Madigan.
SPEAKER_02:I think it is a win for Amy Madigan, but be careful because we've recently reassessed, and maybe we'll discuss this in further detail down the road. But Wumi Musaku is right there, she's right where she needs to be to pull off an upset.
SPEAKER_01:We're gonna talk about this hopefully in later episodes, but you and I, you know, revisited Sinners recently, having seen um Sinners again uh with the recent re-release. Um, I think people might be sleeping on Woommi Musaku as a possible eventual winner of this category. Because if weapons doesn't make into best picture and Amy Madigan ends up being the only nominee for weapons, I think that's something that hurts her chances to win this category. Also, we don't know yet how they're gonna react with the kind of film it is. It's not the kind of film that even doesn't win Oscars and doesn't even get nominated for Oscars. Right. Um, so if she manages the nomination, can she really win? Especially if she's by herself, Tiana Taylor would make sense, especially if what we believe to be true happens, which is that um one battle breaks records and gets possibly all six actors nominated. Um, it would make sense for there to be a win here in this category for Tiana Taylor. However, I think her character is um some some voters might have an issue with um and and and feel that's a little bit too prickly for them. Um you have someone perfect in Wui Mosaku, who is in a best picture uh favorite in a top two, top three best picture film. Um uh gives your winner some diversity. She's terrific in the film, um, and it could be a win for uh Sinners in the acting department. And I expect, for example, Sinners to win the sag ensemble, for example, so it would make sense.
SPEAKER_02:And also, I mean, between all the Warner Brothers performances, one could argue that it's possibly the most redeeming character.
SPEAKER_01:I think that's very true. I think that's very true. I think that's a very good point, actually.
SPEAKER_02:I think she's gonna have some good UK support. Right. So definitely watch out for Wound Me. Can I see her spoiling the night here and taking it from Amy Madigan?
SPEAKER_01:Interesting. It could happen. Interesting. I think supporting actors will be the most exciting acting category to see, at least in the beginning, televised precursors.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Because we're not quite sure what's gonna happen there. I mean, I will be honest, I'd say I think that Amy Madigan will win this, but would I be shocked if Tiana Taylor wins? Would I be shocked if Ariana Grande wins? Will I be shocked if Inga ops uh Inga um Ipsotter or Lilias wins? Not really, I wouldn't be. So it would be interesting to see what happens here in this category, right? All right. I mean, can't you see any of those wins? I mean, I feel c I feel good about I mean Maddie and but it I could see any of those wins.
SPEAKER_02:Maybe without Inga, I do think that the double nomination there for the sentimental uh actors could be a factor, maybe.
SPEAKER_01:Um, but I any of them could win.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Uh for supporting actor, um, this one I think is a little bit tougher. Um, because if they were being honest, they would probably want to give it to Benicio Latoro, who's been doing well with the precursors, at least I think, but they're gonna go with who they think is gonna win the Oscar. And I wholeheartedly think that that's Stan Skarsgar for Sentimental Value, so I say he wins. I and I but I if again, if they were being themselves, they would either give it to Benicio or they'd give it to the passion pick, which would be Jacob Alordy for Frankenstein.
SPEAKER_02:I have always tweeted, I tweeted when after we saw the movie, Benicio Toro is the performance to win here in supporting actor between the two one battle actors. In fact, I would argue that as time goes on and Sean is winless, Sean is in more danger.
SPEAKER_01:He's he's won some critics' roots, but you mean televised precursors?
SPEAKER_02:He's just very clearly second to Benicio. Um, I think we've always been of the thought that Stellan Skarsgard is the winner here. Um, and I think there's still a lot to suggest that's the case. Um I think the person to watch out here is Jacob. I think Jacob will end up being the surprise here. If they were themselves, it would be Jacob. I feel like the win is going to go to Jacob. Um, I'm not sure if he's gonna be able to close it out and get a nomination at the end, but I do think that he will get a win here.
SPEAKER_01:So you so you're saying that? I think Jacob will be. Okay, so I'm saying they go with who they think is gonna win the Oscar, and that's clearly Stalin. Uh for original screenplay, I think this one's more a little bit more interesting. Uh the precursors have certainly broken for Sinners, I think I believe, with the most uh wins in the original screenplay category. Um at the Oscars, I don't think that'll be the case. That being said, I think they're gonna go with Sinners for best original screenplay.
SPEAKER_02:I agree with you. I agree with you. I think they're I mean it's gonna be one of the few places to get Ryan Kugler on stage, and I think they're not gonna pass that off.
SPEAKER_01:100%. Uh for our Dapid Screenplay, I think this is an easy one. I think it is one battle after another. Um, close second is probably Hamnet, but I think it's a distant second. You agree? Yeah, I agree. Ensemble. I think this one is certainly between sinners and one battle, and I give the edge to centers.
SPEAKER_02:I agree.
SPEAKER_01:Uh young actor, young actress. I think this is a battle between Miles Canton for Sinners and uh Jacoby Jupe for Hamlet. You know, I personally would pick Jacoby, even though I love Miles and Sinners. Um, but I think that this is gonna be another wins for Sinners.
SPEAKER_02:Um I I prefer Miles and I think that Miles is gonna win.
SPEAKER_01:Okay. Uh for comedy film, you know, which is not a bad category in terms of their nominees, but it's a ridiculous category.
SPEAKER_02:Which is I yeah, I was gonna say when we talked about it, like this is probably one of their most genuine categories of the ceremony.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, um, I feel like we're so snarky when we're talking about the critics' choice. This is kind of like a uh a little uh uh snark section of the show, but anyway, for best comedy, again, it's a good group of nominees. Um, I'd say that the win is between the naked gun and splitzville. Um, I think a lot of people on Gold Derby at least are predicting it's gonna be the naked gun, but I don't know. I think I'm gonna go on a on a limb and say that it's splitzville.
SPEAKER_02:I am actually gonna go ahead and say the controversial thing. I don't think the naked gun should win. Number one, neither do I. It's not a bad movie, it's just nowhere near as funny as the originals, and it's nowhere near as good as it should be. I think it's just okay. It's you know, it's not even the best spoof we saw this year. Um, I'm actually gonna go ahead and say the winner is going to go to friendship.
SPEAKER_01:You think so?
SPEAKER_02:Friendship is gonna win here. I can see that, especially since he's having a moment. He is having a moment, and I don't know if it's gonna be there, but I think they want to give it to him.
SPEAKER_01:Um, he's hilarious. I love it. Um animated feature. I think that's an obvious one. It'll be K-pop Demon Hunters. Uh foreign film. I think that's a good thing. It was just an accident. Weirdly enough, I think the favorite here is clearly it was just an accident, and I think it will win, but it just goes to show the phonetic. But nobody saw it. It just goes to show the phoniness of this because this is a film that couldn't even muster a best picture or best director nomination, despite it being a favorite, and it's going to win this category simply because it's the favorite to win this category.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and again, I will say that why the hell isn't sentimental value in this category? What the hell is going on? How does that make any sense at all? What the hell is going on here? Um, yeah, I guess the win has to be it was just an accident because they disqualified sentimental value.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um uh for special.
SPEAKER_01:But for no other choice, so I guess it might be. Possibly, like I said, you know, somehow it makes sense for them to snub it was just an accident for picture director, but definitely give it the win for four and film. Um cinematography, I think that's an easy one. That's Sinners. I think that's also the Oscar winner. Um costume design. I think that might be a literal, a little interesting. I think Wicked has a chance of winning this category, as does Sinners. But I'm gonna say that Frankenstein is the winner here. I like that call. I like that call. Right. Uh for best editing. Um, I'm gonna say that the that one battle after another wins this award. You know, the sheer magnitude of having this, you know, uh this uh tremendous scope and having it feel like you know, whiz by you is something that I think is gonna attract them. Um, I think it's uh I think it's a dark horse contender for the Oscar as well. Um, so I'm gonna go with one battle for editing. Agreed. Uh for hair and makeup, um, I'm gonna say that that's a very easy one as well for the Oscars. That's Frankenstein. Distant second would be something like weapons, I think. Would have some fans, but Frankenstein is it. Uh for best score, I think that's another easy one for Sinners. Yeah, Sinners should walk out, possibly having the most wins, even if one battle. With the best picture win, yeah. Yeah, even if one battle ends up winning picture director and screenplay. Uh, for best song, I think that's gonna be K-pop demon hunters, even though I think you know, over the last few days I'm coming I've come around to this possibility that K-pop loses the best original song category to Sinners for the song that Miles Kanjan sings. I lied to you. Um, but at least here I think K-pop is safe to win.
SPEAKER_02:Um, I don't know. I think I gotta disagree. I think Sinners should win here. Interesting. I think so. And I think something that helps is that um at least in this category, none of the songs doubled up, so I think they have a better shot. And so I think if everyone sort of says Sinners had the best soundtrack of the year, then it should win here.
SPEAKER_01:For production design, I'm gonna go ahead and say again that Frankenstein pulls it out, pulls a win.
SPEAKER_02:Makes sense. Watch out for Sinners, but makes sense, yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, um for sound design, this might be interesting. If they were cool, they might give it to something like Surratt. They won't, though. So I'm gonna say they're gonna go with the most obvious pick, and that's F1.
SPEAKER_02:Listen, I cannot wait to talk about this film further, but I think Surratt is the Cinderella story of the year, and I'm here for it. Me too. Um, that being said, I think it's gonna go to F1 because they think it's gonna be non-inference Oscar. Um, and it may very well be, but watch out for Surratt because that'll be one hell of a win.
SPEAKER_01:Uh for stunt design, which I think the Academy is close to, I believe, uh having a stunt category next year. So they're getting ahead of it. I think isn't this the first year they have a stunt design category or no? At the critic's choice? Yeah, possibly not sure. Don't quote me. Uh, but uh, I'm actually gonna say the Mission Impossible. I think that's the favorite. I think that's that's that'll be the prevailing winner. I think they're hoping for a take it for Tom Cruise, is what they're hoping for. Yeah, I agree. And then finally, for best visual effects. G I really wonder who's gonna win this category. Nobody saw it.
SPEAKER_02:It was only good enough to get one nomination based on its trailers. Right. Um, but it'll win. It'll win that category based on its trailers again.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Uh, and that's Adam. Avatar Fire and Ash. Yeah. And finally, for the last portion of the show, we're going to preview who we think are going to win, which films we think are going to win the National Society of Film Critics Association. That I believe will be the 3rd of January, and it'll be right before, I believe, the Critics Choice Awards, which are on the fourth. Um, it's always really cool. You know, we it's always nice to see who the top three uh critics groups, which are LA, New York, and National National Society Film Critics, who they give it to. Yeah. But there is overlap. So the National Society film critics is made up of members who are both part of the LA film critics and the New York Film Critics Circle. So you'll oftentimes see a lot of the same uh names pop up here. Yeah, they're pooling from the same number of contenders kind of thing. Exactly. Um, so there's just a lot of members uh in this group that showed up in LA and New York.
SPEAKER_02:Although I will say it's always kind of fun because like I remember in 2022, um, when Jafar Panahi's film No Bears was listed here for a bunch of awards, it was not listed at either LA or New York.
SPEAKER_01:And so sometimes they do something cool like Yeah, I think sometimes if they see I do think these are critics who see kind of who's getting a lot of love. And who isn't? And if there's a contender that they want to push and you know sh you know uh put a little bit of the spotlight on, they'll try to do that.
SPEAKER_02:100% they can absolutely be reactionary. There was one great year where they um gave the big wins to inside Lewin Davis as one last ditch effort to give it a little bit of momentum because like so many of the bigger sort of um critical wars like left it off. So yeah, they absolutely could be reactionary.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And um I expect this shit to be a year where a like a strong group of uh like five or six films kind of take the majority of um among them are several foreign films like Surratt and It Was Just an Accident and the Agent and No Other Choice, One Battle. So, you know, five or six of these films I think will get the majority of the mentions. So let's start with Best Picture. I think it'll be uh a sweep and one battle after another we'll win all three, and we'll win best picture here as well. Um, the number two that we're predicting is Jafar Panahi does really well here. So we're predicting it was just an accident. Watch out that possibly they want to go their own way because they see that one battle is doing so well, it doesn't need the help, and they give the best picture win to it was just an accident. That could definitely happen. Possibly, yeah. Um, and our number three pick is the secret agent. So these, if you're not familiar with these, these have a number one, a number two, and a number, a number three, and they're based on rounds of votings. Yeah. So whoever accumulates the most points is number one, second most, number two, third most, number three. Okay, for best director, um we have uh PTA winning for one battle. At number one, our number two is Jafar Ponahe, for which it's an accident. Again, they could switch for best picture. And on number three, we actually are gonna say it's Oliver Oliver Lax for Surratt. Yeah. Um, because again, we do expect Surratt to do well here. Um for best actress, right now we're thinking that Rose Byrne is gonna sweep and get all three. She should. She needs to. If I for if I had legs that kick you. However, again, don't take that as a for sure thing because just last year Marion Jeffes did that and still wasn't able to get in. Put Rose Byrne's campaign, like no days off. Talk about like a no days off campaign. Um, I wouldn't be shocked if our number two pick, which is Jesse Buckley for Hamnet, has enough passion to get that number one spot. Um, regardless of how some critics might feel about the movie. There are several critics that do uh quite like it and and love this film, and this would be one of the few places to spotlight it. So don't be surprised if she ends up winning this. Um, but right now we're gonna say Rose number one, Jesse Buckley number two, and a number three, interestingly enough, I think is gonna be a tie between uh Renata Reines for Sentimental Value and Ava Victor for Sorry Baby.
SPEAKER_02:I really feel like Ava Victor has a really good shot here. Right.
SPEAKER_01:So do I. I feel good about Ava Victor. I'm a little bit less sure about Renata because she placed for Worst Person in the World a number two in 2021. Maybe they feel like you know they don't need to place her again. We'll see. For Best Actor, uh, I believe that it will be the winner for the New York film critic circle, Wagner Mora, who prevails here for the secret agent. The number two choice, I think, will be Lee Byeongun for No Other Choice, who's amazing in his film, and it'll be one of the ways that they can spotlight that movie. And the number three, I think, will be Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon, um, who he won this award, I believe, in 2018 for First Reformed.
SPEAKER_02:You know what? I'm not gonna lie, like we're keeping him off, and you know, it's a choice to keep Chalamet off for Marty Supreme, but what if this awards body is reactionary and gives the a bunch of awards to Marty Supreme?
SPEAKER_01:It could happen. Recency bias can happen as well. It could happen. I would watch off for more. Someone else I'd watch off for is someone like uh Leo DiCaprio for one battle. You know, they might feel like they want to spotlight that performance um because uh that film is gonna do so well and he hasn't won any of the the big ones yet. Oh, that's his last chance. We'll see. Uh for supporting actress, it's kind of interesting. We're gonna predict, and as we mentioned earlier in the show, you know, this will be one of the first kind of uh reveals as to uh possibly our prediction is our possibly one of the first reveals of Woone Mosaku's strength, and that she will win the supporting actress award here for Sinners. So we're predicting her at number one, Tayana Taylor at number two, and Amy Madigan at number three. Technically, it would make sense for this award to go to either Tayana or Amy, and they've kind of split most of the awards, but we think that's gonna be Woon Mi Mosaku. And like I said, watch offer to be the eventual winner, possibly, for the Oscar.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, speaking of Leo, I will say Regina Hall did not win this award for support the girls. She didn't, but she placed. She did place, but she has not won yet. Right. So just keep an eye on that.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um, supporting actor, uh, we think Benisio will win. We believe that Stan Skarsgard will be number two. Um, interestingly enough, Benicio is the New York winner. Uh, Stellan is the LA winner, and the number three spot we're gonna go with Jacob Alordi for Frankenstein. Uh, watch out for possibly Alexander Skarsgard for Pillion, Darroy Lindell for Cinners, possibly, even though I think he won, I believe, uh for uh the Five Bloods. Andrew Scott. Uh Andrew Scott for Blue Moon, who you know I think is great in that movie. And but he won recently in this this uh this trip as well uh for um uh strangers all of us strangers, yeah. One of the best performances that year. Um for best screenplay, we're predicting that this will be at least one win has to go to Jafar Panahi. It should. Yeah, and we think that will be it was just an accident, the winner for screenplay. The number two, we're predicting PTA for one battle, and number three, we're predicting Ava Victor again for sorry, baby. Yeah, um, other people to watch out for, no other choice might might pop up here. Train dreams might pop up here. Secret agent's not bad. Uh, secret agent might pop up here. Blue moon might pop up here, actually. I think I wouldn't be shocked at that. For cinematography, we're going with our win predicted winner, Sinners, our number two spot, train dreams, and our number three spot Surrat.
SPEAKER_02:I could see Train Dreams and Sinners swapping the win here, but I'll say also like Secret Agent, maybe placing here. Maybe I would love that. I would love that.
SPEAKER_01:I would love that. Um, for documentary, we believe it will follow suit as New York NLA and be My Undesirable Friends Part One, Last Air in Moscow. Um, number two, we think will be The Perfect Neighbor, which has been doing well at the precursors. And the number three, right, and the number three will be put your soul in your hand and walk. Yeah, which also can happen for the Gotham. I think so. And for foreign language film, the final award, we believe it will go to it was just an accident for Jafar Panahi, um, the number two spot, The Secret Agent, and the number three spot Surrat.
SPEAKER_02:I think the thing to sort of watch out for here and sort of like the asterisk and what we're saying is I do not it was just an accident can't win both. It can't win picture and foreign film. And so right now we're saying it'll win foreign film and PTA will score best picture. Right. If they do decide to give it best picture to it was just an accident, look for them to give it to another title foreign film, and there's where secret agent. Or man, if Surratt has a day here, oh, that's totally gonna that's totally gonna shake the race.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, well, I would love that. Um, and uh they also have like an experimental war, maybe the documentary um uh After News of Solitude, I thought about maybe Black News Terms and Conditions, something like that. Um, and anyway, so it'll be cool to see what happens there on the third. And uh I think that's mostly it for this episode.
SPEAKER_02:Oh, that's great. I mean, well, I do want to say that this will probably be our last episode of the year. Um, so we'll resume on the Academy Anonymous podcast uh 2026, and we'll have uh a bunch of results to go over and a bunch of award ceremonies in the offing. And I think what Oscar nominations are I think end of January, right? Early February. We'll confirm that. Um, in the meantime, definitely check out our predictions on our website, frames and flicker.com. Um, keep up with us on on on Twitter at Academy Anon. We'll try to um tweet through the ceremonies. Um, and yeah, I think that covers everything for this episode.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, for just really quick our predictions um will be since all these uh precursors are coming out, you know, you should see us being updating it, you know, daily with uh new precursors that come out and whatnot. So look out for that.
SPEAKER_02:All right. Well, we want to wish everyone a happy holiday and a very safe new year and a very happy new year um with your loved ones. Uh, thank you for listening and thank you for spending uh portion of your 2025 with us.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, we really appreciate it. And uh we'll see you guys back here next year. Absolutely. Look forward to it. Stick with us, and it's been a pleasure.
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SPEAKER_01:The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP calling forward slash forward slash Creative Commons.org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.
SPEAKER_02:Disclaimer The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.