Oscar Season 2025-2026: Forecasting the SAG, PGA, ASC and DGA Nominees; Predicting Golden Globe Winners and Reactions to the Critics Choice Awards; Our Take on MARTY SUPREME and SIRĀT

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• MARTY SUPREME is a runaway Christmas hit for A24, Timothée Chalamet is King of the Box-Office
• Spain's SIRĀT to explode onto Oscar scene with surprise nominations, but can it really crash Best Picture?
• Will SINNERS, TRAIN DREAMS and ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER land first time nominations for their cinematographers at the ASC guild award?
• Cinematographers Guild to sideline international films in their annual lineup for Best Cinematography
• Can multiple foreign films pull off an upset at the Directors Guild of America?
• Guillermo del Toro's FRANKENSTEIN looks to cement itself as a top 5 Best Picture movie with DGA nomination
• Can MARTY SUPREME three-peat nominations at the SAG Ensemble, DGA and PGA.... or did it peak too late?
• Will the Producers Guild of America resuscitate flailing box-office hits AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD?
• WEAPONS hoping to ride Hollywood horror-renaissance into PGA Top 10 and SAG Ensemble nominations
• HEDDA's Tessa Thompson and SONG SUNG BLUE's Kate Hudson look to leap BUGONIA's Emma Stone and TESTAMENT OF ANN LEE's Amanda Seyfried at the Screen Actors Guild
• Can Wagner Moura leverage NARCOS visibility into a SAG Best Actor nomination for THE SECRET AGENT?
• Is WICKED: FOR GOOD poised to receive a complete shut-out at the Screen Actors Guild? 
• HAMNET, SENTIMENTAL VALUE and IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT look for a boost on Golden Globes weekend
• Critics Choice Awards vote for Timothée Chalamet, Jesse Buckley, Jacob Elordi and Amy Madigan, but one speech seems to seal the deal and another appears to have blown the race wide open!
• Which Critics Choice winning actor is flirting with a snub and may end up on the cutting room floor at the Oscars?

Chapters

• 1:19 MARTY SUPREME delivers Christmas celebration for Timothée Chalamet, Josh Safdie and A24
• 32:13 Spain's SIRĀT looks like an international contender crashing the Oscars and breaking into Best Picture
• 45:14 ASC Cinematographers Guild to nominate the consensus five for Best Cinematography
• 57:32 The DGA Directors Guild of America to solidify the Best Picture 5 for this year
• 1:08:49 Producers Guild of America to preview first look at Oscars Best Picture 10 with PGA nominations
• 1:24:23 SAG Actors to champion populist picks over critics' darlings with Screen Actors Guild Awards
• 2:32:29 Golden Globes weekend to pit international features against traditional Oscar fare, Hollywood blockbusters and Paul Thomas Anderson
• 2:59:12 Critics Choice winners give us first taste of ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER vs. SINNERS
• 3:06:29 Amy Madigan rises, Jacob Elordi surprises, Jesse Buckley shines and Timothée Chalamet stumbles - Critics Choice acting winners

Transcript

SPEAKER_03: 0:14

Hey everyone, and welcome to a brand new episode of Academy Anonymous. Happy New Year. Great to have you with us here again. A lot of things going on. First month of the new year, and we're trekking towards what eventually will be Oscar nominations coming up soon. A lot of televised programming, um, a final say on a bunch of screenings, um, final predictions for a bunch of ceremonies. Um, got a lot to cover today. Let's jump right in. Um, as always, I'm Joseph, and I'm here with Jules.

SPEAKER_01: 0:45

And as always, remember to uh check out our socials, especially our Twitter at Academy Anon. It's on the cover art for the podcast. And also check out our website, framesandflicker.com. We've also updated the prediction charts with all the precursors coming out, and then this uh January is packed with precursors from the industry, which is arguably much more important than what the critics' precursors uh entail. So um be sure to check that out. Uh, you'll see a lot of you know uh wins, noms, special mentions, runner-ups, all on our prediction charts. It's really cool. And yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 1:19

Well, I think it's time for us to talk about Marty Supreme. Um, it opened up over Christmas, which was uh last weekend. Um, this is its second weekend. Um, and so far it seems like there's a lot to celebrate for A24. Of course, critics have really loved the film since it premiered at the New York Film Festival as a secret screening. But I think some of the more headline grabbing news pertaining to that film recently has just been the tremendous success it has found at the box office. So, in limited release over um a few days before Christmas, it was massive over just a few theaters in New York. Then it finally came out on Christmas. It uh over Christmas weekend it was number three and it scored 28 million. Um, right now it just finished its second weekend, and to date, um, it has around 56 million in the domestic on the US side. I think that was good for a number four finish. Um, and so it has officially, I think, become the highest-grossing A24 film that was released in 2025. Some people are already predicting that it's going to surpass 100 million, which is a big, big get. Um, the second closest film from A24 and in uh last year, 2025, was Materialist, which was a huge hit over the summer, a huge sleeper hit, and that only scored 32 million. Um, the closest number to uh what Marty has right now, 56 million, what it has over its second weekend, is probably Civil War, which was a big summer hit for A-24 last year when it scored 68 million in the U.S. Um, their best picture uh player last year was Boodalist, and that scored 16 million in the U.S. And so Marty has already certainly has a lot more to sort of angle as a huge box office success. I think, in further context, you know, Uncut Gems was the other big safety movie, this movie directed by Josh, but Uncooked Gems was um the big safety movie from 2019. A24 tried to push that. Obviously, we all know how that ended, but it did score 50 million over its run. So Marty has officially surpassed what Uncut Gems accumulated in 2019.

SPEAKER_01: 3:23

Right. And, you know, there's been uh publications already kind of uh crowning Timothy Chalamet as, you know, king of the box office, um, especially for these award season December releases off the heels of A Complete Unknown, which did really well over Christmas last year. It was around number number six, but it made uh 23 million by that time. And overall, it ended up making 75 million on the US, which is a pretty good number, and 64 million internationally. And we all saw the success with that movie that got eight Academy Award nominations. I wonder if this film Uncut Gems, I mean uh Marty Supreme, will be able to meet those standards. That's uh that's a curious question that I have. And on that note, uh we also got a chance to screen the film along with all of you over the Christmas break. Uh, for those of us who weren't uh fortunate enough to see it beforehand, um, had to see it with crowds. Um and uh, you know, it's very much, you know, some people were commenting on how this film reflects the sort of safety energy more than the smashing machine does. And I would agree with that, you know, there's a propulsive energy to this, you know, sort of uh a chaos, a familiar chaos that we have grown to be familiar with, you know, with the safties of war. Um, that's definitely here, you know, in terms of editing and sound work, certainly the music, uh, the musical score, which I believe are the same uh composers who did uh Good Time and Um Uncut Gems, I believe, um has a very uh you know um a cast that is very strange, you know. When you can see Abel Ferrara in one scene and then you can see Gwyneth Patra in another scene and Odessayan, it's it's it's very eclectic. Um Mr. Mr. Wonderful, whatever his name is. Um it's very eclectic, and that's also that that was also very, you know, I think that added an energy to the piece, uh a spontaneous, chaotic energy to the piece that that I thought was fitting. Um I think it's a film that really puts the titular character, Marty Mauser, who is loosely based on the um Marty Reisman. Marty Riseman, right? The American table tennis player. Um, I think it's very loosely based. Yeah, I'm sure it's very loosely based. It's certainly a film. I think that in the middle stretch of the film, he sort of put through a lot of trials and tribulations and obstacles that to me felt a little bit like trying to put him through obstacles.

SPEAKER_04: 5:54

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 5:54

You know, trying to amass as much chaos as possible for what I think is a really uh simple and you know uh invigorating story, you know, about you know chasing greatness and the sacrifice that comes with trying to find and attain and acquire that greatness, um, which I think are elements that are present in uh in other aspects of the Safties films, um, the Safties Together. Um, and so that's certainly present here, but I did feel like that middle stretch was really trying to uh elongate and you know protract, you know, that sort of journey in a way that I didn't feel was as organic personally, at least on first watch. This is just my first impression. Uh-huh. Um, and I also found that I have, I think, a bit some qualms with the ending of the film that I'm still lingering, I'm still weighing upon, you know, I'm still weighing them rather. Um, you know, in a way I think there's something about the ending, and I won't spoil anything for people who haven't seen it yet, but there's something about the ending that I think undercuts a little bit of what came before it in a way that I don't know if it was intentional um or uh just, you know, what is the experience of watching the film. Um, but I certainly I I'm I'm thinking about that ending. If uh it's it's it's a compelling ending in terms of how well it's performed by Timothy Chalamet, but I do think that in a way it kind of undercuts what we were seeing before, or rather that it's in a way it's it's the one moment in the film that I think you know departs from, you know, as as Timmy Chalamet would say, the the spirit of Marty. Um it departs and it's it's a departure that happens at that in that last last few moments that I'm still weighing if it was, you know, uh what I would have done personally. Right. Well, those are just some initial thoughts. What did you think?

SPEAKER_03: 7:46

Well, I mean, I think we're I we have very similar impressions. Um we were lucky enough to watch it together. Um, my my first reaction is that it's very much the safty formula. Um, as you've said, you know, a lot of their trademark filmmaking is here. Um, I don't think that there's a lot of division between Uncut Gems and Marty Supreme. I feel like they're certainly cut from the same cloth, which is interesting because to a certain degree we can have the conversation of did any saft, did any individual safety brother demonstrate, you know, a large amount of growth in either project? My quick answer would probably be probably not. It's a little bit more of the same. Um, and if you enjoy that, then it's certainly worth celebrating and buying a ticket to and and you know um reflecting on. And and I think it's a very enjoyable film, um, like like Smashing Machine, and like certainly like Unka Gems. Um, and this one I think I understand why there are more safety fans flocking to this one. Um, there's a certain quietness to the Smashing Machine, which is actually a little bit stranger to see coming from a Safety than Marty Supreme. You have here Marty Supreme a little bit more of the anxiety-inducing energy, which in my opinion was best done probably in If I Had Legs at Kick You. I think that's the best Safty film of the year. That's not directed by a Safety. Mary Bronson directed that. I think it's the better of the three. Um, that being said, um, there's no real transcendence here, there's no real departure. And so the issue is how are voters going to react? And what there is, is a real life figure, Marty Risman, at the center of it, again, extremely loosely based. And it's also a period piece. And he has probably more notable collaborators this year on this time around, um, including, for example, Jack Fisk, who does a brilliant job in the production design. Yes. Um, so I think you run into, because it is a safety formula, you're gonna run into certain issues. And unlike Uckan Gems, Adam Sandler is not starring in this movie. If Adam Sandler were starring in this movie, I think we could have a really interesting conversation as to how far does it get or not. Um, but it is Timothy Chalamet, who's very celebrated, and he has a lot to chew on here, and he does uh an excellent job, but it is still a very unlikable character. It's a character that's difficult to root for, um, it's a character that's dipp uh difficult to sympathize with. Um, and that's going to be a turnoff, I think, to a lot of voters. This cast, you don't have um the wonderful Julia Fox in it and Uncle Jams, right? But again, no voter's gonna take that seriously. You have Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa, and they both do a wonderful job, but they don't have a lot of material either. You have Kevin O'Leary in it, you have Tyler Creator in it, um, and they also each do a really good job. They still don't have a lot of material in it, in my opinion. Um, because that's just not the nature of how a Safti film is constructed, so to speak. It's a little bit more, as we've said, new focused on that central character, which would be Marty Mauser and Timothy Shall I think he's the anchor, the way that the uh protagonists or rather the anti-heroes of the Safti films are.

SPEAKER_01: 10:57

He's the, you know, he's the anchor, he's the twister, everything else is just revolving around him. So even if, you know, you enjoy seeing, you know, Gwyneth Powter on screen again, or you know, I actually thought that Mr. Wonderful did a very good job. I thought I found him very believable um as that character. Maybe there wasn't much of a departure, who knows? Um and uh and so, you know, even though it's a colorful cast, you know, none of them have the substance that uh Timothy Chalamet's character carries. Um, and so when we think about supporting players, I don't really see that happening here. I think it's very much the Timothy Chalamet show, and that will be reflected in the nominations for the acting nominations as well. And I think we'll see that in SAG coming up. Um, that uh it will do, you know, in a way it's not that different. Well, the energy is different, but it's not that different from the Brutalist in a way that at the SAGs, I expect we we people were surprised that it was just Adrian Brody who showed up. But I kind of expect something similar to happen here where it's just Timothy Chalamet that shows up and maybe he doesn't even get nominated for Ensemble. Because there is something about the casting in this film that can, I guess, read to some people as a little bit ostentatious, you know, um these, you know, uh strange casting choices, which again I think work for the film, but I think might not work for every viewer. But I think you bring up a really good point about, you know, if Timothy Chalamet wasn't starring in this movie and were a different actor of a different caliber, of a different status, would it be the same? Would it be uh uh would it be looked at in the same way? And I'm I'm not a hundred percent sure about that as well.

SPEAKER_03: 12:37

That's what I was kind of insinuating with this idea of like what they took here was the uncut gems sort of formula and they adjusted it just enough to give it a little bit more of an awards angle. So what if I told you, take away the uncut gems? It's it's the uncut gems outline, right? But someone comes in the room and says, but instead of it being about seedy, you know, sort of jewelry pawn shops, it's gonna be about ping pong and tail table tennis, right? And and quote unquote, you know, the start of a sport um in America. And we also said, and it's not gonna be a contemporary piece anymore that has Furbies, but it's instead going to be a period piece, right? Um post-war, right? Um, and what if I also said that it's not gonna be Adam Sandler, but it's gonna be Christian Bale. That movie already would probably have a much easier time figuring into the Oscars than Unka Gems. And so they've sort of adjusted that formula now to and they've included Timothy Chalamet in it. And I think that that is what's working for them. I think a big test is we're gonna see how the Guild Awards react. I think you had pointed out, right, that the the Safties have always um appealed to international voters. They've they've right, they've like gone to Can and Right.

SPEAKER_01: 13:52

I think they do appeal to international voters, and I think their stature in the film community has only increased um through the years, especially after films like you know, Uncut Gems and Good Time. And so I certainly think there's a there's an aspect to that that I think is going for them in terms of this awards run uh for Marshall Premier for Josh Safty. I do think they have international fans, and I think that's no small thing in today's academy. Um, but I I think it's still a question mark how big of fans are is the you know uh American component of the Ampus membership.

SPEAKER_03: 14:27

Exactly. And I think the Guild Award, the Guild Awards, things like that, the long list, they those are gonna go a long way into showing how receptive they are. I mean, we already have three Golden Globe nominations for Marty to Unka Gems is zero. Um at the same time, you know, I'm not gonna say that this should play out like a traditional sports movie. There's very little sports movie in this, right? And it's not gonna play out as a traditional um rags to riches story because it's sort of the movie really subverts that too, right? Um and so there are, there's still, again, because it is a Safety film, there are plenty of alienating things about it.

SPEAKER_02: 15:02

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 15:03

Um I'll just say as a final note, I think the film is at its best when it's getting to the bone or the to the to the nitty-gritty of, like I said, those those uh the things that you sacrifice um in in your pursuit of greatness, um, among them, you know, your your person, dignity, um, your actual dreams in and of themselves, um, your worldview, everything. And so I thought that that was still palpable in the film, aided a lot by um a lot of the uh performances and you know the some of the technical aspects of the film. It's still an immersive film. I just wish that some of the chaos or most of the chaos, because the film is almost pure chaos in a way, the way that is is is uh very um uh familiar with us if you've seen Safety films. I just wish that some of the chaos didn't feel like trying to drum up chaos to tell you the story. Right. Um, but it's still, you know, it's hard to not feel immersed in their storytelling, you know, with their camera choices and uh the energy that they're able to conjure up, which is no small thing. So that's certainly still present here. And I do think, as you as we've been saying, there is a fan base for that. Oh, yeah, and that fan base has grown.

SPEAKER_03: 16:16

Right. Um, so and I do think that voters are gonna be able to sort of distill this and say, first of all, I had a good time. I enjoyed it. I'm really impressed by the technical skill. And at the end of the day, it's a story that's a you know, sort of critiquing the male ego, right? Um, and they're gonna be drawn to that. But I also think you had a great comparison because that has its limitations. I think one of the films that you had mentioned that I thought was like, you know what? I see a lot of DNA there. You mentioned the Wolf of Wall Street, yeah, right. And and so what what was your sort of connection there between those two movies and kind of like what their fate may be at the academy?

SPEAKER_01: 16:54

Well, you know, I just you know, you have an anti-hero in both of them. You have an anti-hero in Timothy Shaq, Timothy Shahme's character and Leo DiCaprio's character. But I also think, you know, the Wolf of Wall Street has, you know, this debauchery uh uh you know underpinning uh the entire film that I think audiences were not as receptive to. I remember the cinema score after the Wolf of Wall Street was pretty low. I think it was like a C or C minus, and people felt by and large that, and I think it also came around, came out around this time, um, Christmas weird choice for that movie. Um, and so I think people had a problem with I think interpreting that the film was celebrating this sort of behavior and debauchery, but really, you know, if you were really paying attention to that movie, you know, it was uh Martin Scorsese and his filmmaking collaborators were really, you know, um criticizing that world and that behavior in a way that felt incredibly uh haunting and compelling and and and palpable. Um so I disagreed with that criticism, you know, from the get-go. But I think this film is having a different reception because even though I wouldn't label debauchery, uh, you know, I wouldn't use that term. I I like the term chaos, you know, and even though he is a very unlikable character um in several moments and several instances, I still feel like people are responding to the film in a way that is different from The Wolf of Wall Street. I mean, we saw the cinema score was pretty good from regular moviegoers. Um, and so I think in a way, this is maybe a more tame or more accessible version of that kind of filmmaking, you know, worldview.

SPEAKER_03: 18:32

Right. I I I think all that is accurate and I agree with a lot of that. Um, I think certainly the cinema score is higher, which is bodes better for this movie. The money is really good, right? As you just pointed out, like it's it's on track to surpass a complete unknown and surpass gems and be, you know, A24's flagship victory of the year. Um, Timothy Chalamet, for all the antics that he didn't promote it, it seems like it paid off. And so people are not going to be that helps, right? Because people aren't going to be critical about the performance to promote the film, right? Had the film flopped, if the film had flopped, you know, everyone's gonna hyperfocus on you know some of the marketing decisions. Um, so I think that that helps a lot. Um I kind of you know, talking like if we can focus in on the awards prospects, my immediate reaction to walking out of the film in terms of you know that context is what a mistake the timing was. Because I understand that he's the favorite twin best actor, and a lot of things have to happen for that to go wrong. Um, but the nature of the character is already an inherent complication in that. Whereas, had Marty Supreme come out last Christmas and a complete unknown come out this Christmas, I would guarantee you that he would be an Oscar winner. Because it is much easier to hand him the Oscar for playing for playing Bob Dylan in the film than a complete. Unknown is the way that he chose to play him, than it is to hand him the award for playing uh Marty Mauser and Marty Supreme. It's almost like you know, he has this whole idea of he can't lose this year because he's coming off that nomination, and Alpha should have one for a complete unknown, but between the two, one of them is like tailored made to get an Oscar, and the other one is usually Taylor made to be nominated for an Oscar, but not to win. So my immediate reaction was there was a mistake here, and Marty Supreme should have come out first and then a complete unknown, and that would have guaranteed a win.

SPEAKER_01: 20:36

I think that's a really good point. And I think we'll talk we'll be talking about that as the weeks progress, leading up to the Oscars. Obviously, I don't think there's a danger in Timothy Chalamagne missing a nomination here. I think his peers will be impressed by his range. Um, and I certainly think it's the darkest role he's done. Um, and uh and he pulls it off uh really well, actually. I think that I was really able to buy the character that they were selling, that he was selling. I really bought it. And in particular, those final moments he has, I think, are among you know the strongest work he's done. But I do wonder, after seeing the film, you know, the unlikability of the character and the kind of film he's in, if that's something that's going to seriously affect his chances at winning. And I don't think that his performance antics, selling, promoting the film, marketing the film are lost on the academy. I think that's something that the academy is aware of. I don't think it's pulled very high, so to speak, you know, this sort of cocky confidence, you know, and you know, sort of brave raw, you know, that kind of thing that he's doing. I'm not sure that it's come across as, you know, to some voters as best actor material. Um, I think what he has to contrast that is again, you know, action speak a lot of the words, three nominations before the age of 30. That's already a lot, all in the lead category. Um but I do think that his character presents the possibility that someone else could swoop in and take the lead over him. And so I would caution anyone who's listening to not consider the Timothy Chalamet Oscar win set in stone. This could easily be uh a moment for someone like Ethan Hawk, who has been here several times, already has four Oscar nominations, two for writing. This would be his fifth as an actor. Uh, Blue Moon has done better than most people had uh were expecting for a movie that premiered in Berlin in February of last year. Um, and he's playing a real life figure, and it's certainly something that, you know, Academy Voters, a certain uh faction of the Academy Voters are more comfortable with. And some people might say that, you know, it's not necessarily fair for Timothy Chalamet to get an Oscar before Ethan Hawke does, you know. Um, and maybe that argument could be undone if it's the kind of movie slash performance that you just can't help but want to embrace. Certainly that can happen, but I'm not sure that Marty Mauser and Marty Supreme is that yet. Yeah. So I, you know, I I think the nomination is absolutely safe. Is the win safe? That's a question mark.

SPEAKER_03: 23:17

I think after screening it, it it makes me feel like it's very much going to be a dogfight that, you know, Wagner Mora, Ethan Hawk, Leo DiCaprio, all of them will be formidable challengers for Timothy Chalamet. And that my gut says that the character of Marty Mauser does not win an Oscar. Um, that he'll get, you know, things that he missed last year. I'm not, I don't think he'll repeat the sag, but he maybe he'll get a globe or a critic's choice or something like that. But I am tempted to say that he will fall short of the Oscar win because it's just simply not what they give an Oscar to.

SPEAKER_01: 23:50

That's true. But I will say that, you know, we looked in in the past history a couple of years ago that, you know, people who've gotten back-to-back nominations in the lead category, you know, you know, they tend to, you know, when you get three nominations in that lead category, you tend to one of those tend to be a win. You know, someone like Carrie Mulligan did it recently and didn't win for when she got her third nomination in the league category for Maestro. Um, but it tends to be something that does happen. Right. So it would make sense for him to be on his way to a win. And like I said, he might be very liked in the industry, and that might be enough. People could people probably people will appreciate the stretch, and that might be enough. Um, and uh so yeah, but I agree with you. I it's not, it's it's it's it's a fight, it's not a set in stone. So, where else do you think the film could pop up? Well, besides best picture and best actor, I don't see a supporting uh nomination here. Um, despite quite liking Odessa Azian in it, um and Mr. Wonderful, I don't see a supporting nomination here. Um, a screenplay now. I think writers will be eager to welcome the Safties into that, into that uh, you know, status of a of a nominated uh writer.

SPEAKER_03: 25:03

A24 does well there, yes also. And the competition is not very high.

SPEAKER_01: 25:07

And then I think that you know, I there's a few more question marks in terms of below the line that I wonder how far it's gonna go. You know, I think the biggest ones in question are editing um and uh original score and production design. Right. You know, I think that production design is really impressive, but I think that the way that the film is filmed, yeah, you know, with you know, a lot of close-ups, a lot of heavy close-ups, you know, they don't necessarily give you the opportunity to sort of immerse yourself into the world, but the world looks beautiful. And and again, the same thing for the costume design. The costume design is very, very well done, but the filmic choices don't lend itself to you know the external, they very much prioritize the internal, the psychological state, right? Um, which I think could have an effect um on some of the production uh possibilities for nominations. But I I I do think that Jack Fisk is a legend on uh one of our greats, and uh I think that might be enough to land a production design nomination, especially with the field that we're looking at, with some contenders being repeats for franchises, etc. Um, I don't see a costume design nomination here. Um, and I wonder if an original score this film can get in alongside another film like Surratt, which we'll be talking about soon. I don't see them both getting in.

SPEAKER_03: 26:31

Right. Um it also got shortlisted for cinematography, but Darius Kanji was nominated for Bardo recently, so I don't know if he can score a nomination here for that. Um, even though the camera work, you know, obviously is very singular here. Um, and it's part of the reason that sort of may blur the ability for a voter to want to spotlight the production design work from Jack Fisk or the costume design work. Um and it also got shortlisted for casting. I don't know how you feel about that.

SPEAKER_01: 27:01

Uh like I said, I'm I mentioned it earlier. I think that there, you know, it's uh it's it's it's very, you know, uh unorthodox casting, which is an asset, but I think for some voters, I think it might be a little too ostentatious. Right. You know, um you mentioned something really, really, uh really interesting when you said, you know, how how how much are casting directors going to be wondering, you know, how much did you search high and low to find, you know, uh title the creator for that part or Mr. Wonderful for that part. You know, so in a way it's sort of ingenious casting, right? But you wonder, yeah, you know, what you were saying.

SPEAKER_03: 27:40

Yeah, I mean, uh we're gonna find out how the whole casting branch is going to react this year, but there's certainly an element here where you know the film is well cast, all the actors do a good job, a lot of the actors, you know, getting a chance to shine that don't ordinarily get that. Oh, that's uh Tyler the creator. Um and there's enough sort of genius maneuver from the director to sort of include these people in prominent roles, and that helps market the film, whether it's Tyler or Mr. Wonderful Alba Ferrera, you know, that's that's pretty singular to their types of films. There's also all these sort of streetcasting that they do in in really standout parts all over the film. I mean, friend rashers in this movie. Um you have um the actor who played uh Marty's friend, I think Dion is his name. Um and just have great street casting. There's actually a wonderful actor from Funny Pages that shows up here with Abel Ferreira. Um but the question is we it's still an unknown as to whether casting directors are going to want to spotlight that or are going to want to stay away from it because they're gonna want to instead focus on films where the casting director brought in an actor to play Bel Ferreira's part and an actor to play Tyler's part, and an actor to play Kevin O'Leary's part. Um, or whether a casting director is gonna say, that's genius. You know, the the job of a casting director is not to find the best actor, but rather the best living person to fill that role. You know what I mean? Um, so I do think it's dicey at this point, whether we'll see it or not. I mean, the score has had some blowback already, as you said. It got snubbed from the Golden Globe. I think you mentioned it got snubbed also from another um important precursor.

SPEAKER_01: 29:25

Yeah, uh the name is escaping me right now, but it's a precursor that society of I think um music uh musicians and lyricists. Yeah, something like that. And I think that last year they had all five um original score nominees, and then it missed there. And the anachronism of the entire score could kind of has this 80s feel, yes, even though we're taking it's taking place in the yeah, 50s.

SPEAKER_03: 29:46

Yeah, um, and so that I think could end up hurting it. Um so I think that my impression is that this will not be a double-digit movie, that this will go single digits, me too, and that it'll be somewhere closer to you know, Moonlight's Hall, which I think what was Moonlight's Hall? That's eight. That's eight. I I think it may be somewhere along the six to eight range. I'm seeing eight as the high.

SPEAKER_01: 30:08

I see six. Six.

SPEAKER_03: 30:10

That's and I think that's kind of low.

SPEAKER_01: 30:11

Yeah, I think I see six. My biggest question mark is you know, along with the uh technical categories, what about directing? You know, will they want to welcome Josh Safty finally into directing? I think a few things are going for him. I think that his biggest competition is someone like Chloe Zhao, who was there already recently for Nomad Land. I don't think that some directors are gonna think that she's done enough to get a second nomination. I think it will be a shock to some people, but I highly expect I totally expect for her to miss the best director um and uh possibly have some you know blowback, you know, because of that. Um or would they prefer, you know, the familiarity and the respect of someone like Guillermo del Toro and to nab that final spot uh for best director, or possibly someone completely, you know, out of the box like uh Oliver Lax for Surratt, you know. I I I question. I question how locked Best Director is as a nomination.

SPEAKER_03: 31:05

I think the Guild Awards um next week are gonna start painting a clearer picture of what the fate is for Marty.

SPEAKER_01: 31:11

Right. Um so but right now, what what categories do you feel confident in?

SPEAKER_03: 31:15

Um right now I'd probably say picture, actor, screenplay. I think I'm gonna put film editing because I'm not sure I have enough movies that really stand out there. But again, the film editing is not traditionally what the branch would go for. It's very much you know edited in the style of a safety film. Um and then I think I I think because it's unknown, it's an unknown sort of uh quantity right now. I think casting is still a good bet. So I think that's five.

SPEAKER_01: 31:44

Um I I I feel like it production design will prevail.

SPEAKER_03: 31:48

I think it's gonna be tough because I I I'm not sure I can see this muscling out Avatar or Wicked, um, regardless of their reception overall at the Oscars. And I think this will be tight to try to get that spot over Hamnet. And so I'm not sure there's enough room for it.

SPEAKER_01: 32:02

Interesting.

SPEAKER_03: 32:03

And I I'm not sure I can see if it's cinematography either.

SPEAKER_01: 32:06

No, I don't see if it's cinematography.

SPEAKER_03: 32:07

Um, and so yeah, I I think maybe the five to six range we're talking about.

SPEAKER_01: 32:12

Yeah. Yeah. Okay, now we'll go to another film that we were able to screen. We were fortunate enough to screen this week, which was Oliver Laxis Surratt. As you, you know, some of our listeners know, we've had a very turbulent experience with that film, from wanting to see it at Can to not being able to to have to waiting all these months have to wait all these months to finally be able to watch it. Um, we finally saw it. You know, I think it's a visionary piece. You know, I think it's very singular, a singular experience, um, a sensory experience to the max. My one regret is possibly not seeing the film in a theater, because I think it's the kind of film that demands a theatrical experience. Well, Neon didn't really put it out in a theater either. Not yet, at least.

SPEAKER_03: 32:52

Um, they're probably waiting until it gets nominated or it gets knobbed one of those two.

SPEAKER_01: 32:56

Right. Uh it's an immersive film that it really sways you into these different uh moods and and emotional places, psychological places that I found really fascinating. And I think it's a hard film to describe in the best sense.

SPEAKER_03: 33:12

Yes.

SPEAKER_01: 33:12

Um, and uh, you know, I I I was quite fond of the film. Um, I thought it was very compelling, very impactful, um, really strong uh filmmaking, visionary filmmaking. Right. Um and and singular, you know, uh very uh just completely uh singular, unique, you know. I haven't experienced this before.

SPEAKER_02: 33:34

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 33:34

Um and I think that's an aspect that I think is speaking to a lot of voters. Um, and that's why I think it's been doing well.

SPEAKER_03: 33:41

Well, I think right now the first recommendation is if you're a listener, please watch Surrat in a theater because it'll be worth it. Absolutely. Um, in a big screen with great sound. Great sound. Um, and you won't forget the experience. This movie broke through and can, right? Where it won the jury prize for the first time that Oliver was in the main competition. Um, but sort of the buzz has been surrounding this movie ever since the Oscar shortlists. Right. Do you remember um what was it shortlisted for?

SPEAKER_01: 34:06

Well, it was shortlisted for international film, for best casting, for cinematography, for sound design, and for original score. It had a terrific showing.

SPEAKER_03: 34:13

And so it's representing Spain, and sort of everyone pegged it for international film and maybe sound or score, but the other two are really eye-opening, cinematography and casting. And so that has sort of built this storyline as to are we under predicting Surratt and is Surrat sort of quietly getting a very passionate contingent to support it. Um, I think you had pointed out that like it shouldn't be shocking because Surratt did great at the European Film Awards. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 34:41

And um at the European Film Awards, it was nominated for best film director, screenwriter for best actor, for casting director, for cinematography, for editor, for production design, and for sound design. It was snubbed, interestingly enough, from Best Score. Well, that's interesting. Um, and I believe it was the most nominated film with nine nominations. That's right, yeah. Um, Tide for Second was uh Sentimental Value and Sound of Falling, another but Sound of Falling is another incredible film.

SPEAKER_03: 35:05

So yeah, it was able to be the most nominated film at the European Film Awards, and it was even able to beat um Sentimental Value. Now, like here's the caveat is that like this year, I think there were more nominations than ever at the European Film Awards because it used to be that they would just hand out a prize for best cinematography. And this year they shortlisted three from three movies, including Surratt, including Sound of Falling, and I think Franz is the third nominee there. But so that has sort of, you know, um inflated the hall a little bit of Surratt. You know, had there only been a winner, maybe cinematography would have just been Sound of Falling. But regardless, it did show up in picture, director, the acting categories, the writing category. So it's a really well-liked film. Right. Um, I think the other thing to sort of be cognizant of is that not only did it like perform really well with all these nominations, even if it's inflated, it it has sort of matched without those technical nominations, you know, the reception to films like Anatomy of a Fall, Zone of Interest, Amelia Perez. And so I'm not sure if either you or I are pegging this movie to win the European Film Award for Best Film.

SPEAKER_01: 36:13

I'm not sure that I'm there just yet, but I will say that something we've been noticing is along the lines we've been saying it all year, you know, the the the foreign contingent of the academy, I think, is stronger than ever. And I think that we've been seeing a lot of overlap between uh prestigious award platforms like the European Film Awards and the Oscar Awards uh having you know a shared DNA. An overlap. So I think a film that does well at the European Film Awards, more often than not, as of now, into you know, in the modern day you know Oscar landscape are having success at the Oscars. And so it's interesting to see that a film like Surratt made the shortlist for casting, for cinematography, uh for sound, and it was nominated in those places at the European Film Awards. And if you go a little bit further, if you dig a little further, you see a film like Sound of Falling, which uh I believe made into the cinematography um uh shortlist for the Oscars, that was also nominated for Best Cinematography at the European Film Awards. So there's an interesting overlap that's happening here between those two awards bodies that I wouldn't uh overlook.

SPEAKER_03: 37:24

I mean, I think it's sort of interesting too because you just said Sound of Falling overlapped at the cinematographer's uh shortlist at the Oscars, but it didn't really show up anywhere else. And it got eight nominations at the European Film Awards. Surratt from Spain showed up in in a lot of places, right? Um and sentimental value um showed up in some surprising places, like I think cinematography as well at the Oscar shortlist, and everyone's sort of pegging that as a top five best picture movie. What's kind of interesting to think about is if that foreign contingent is as strong as you're suggesting, and I believe that it is, we know that that's what's gonna make sentimental value a top five movie.

SPEAKER_04: 38:01

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 38:02

We have empty spots at the bottom of best picture that are, you know, that are vacant right now, and Surratt may have enough of a passionate support to get in there. But when it comes to below the line, sentimental value should not do as well, right? And I don't think that those voters are gonna say, oh, well, I'm a European sound designer, a European, I'm a European uh guild member, or I I work in the European industry and I get a vote for cinematography. And you know, sentimental value isn't the most, you know, um, isn't my favorite cinematography job of the year. So I'm just gonna go ahead and nominate all American films this year. No, they're gonna say, well, which film from the European side that I love? Oh, I loved Surratt.

SPEAKER_02: 38:39

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 38:39

You know, so I kind of wonder if they can sort of complement each other in the sense that sentimental value can dominate above the line and get a best picture nomination, and then Surratt can surprise below the line and maybe get a best picture nomination.

SPEAKER_01: 38:52

Yeah, I think that I think that's very valid, but I'll also say that a film like Surratt is so dangerous because when we're contemplating a best picture 10 and we're thinking about those last two spots, because I do think that there are eight films that seem pretty good for those um, you know, those top eight. Um a film that has a passion vote like Surratt uh is always might be more appealing for a voter than I have to nominate a franchise film, so I'm gonna put Avatar, even though I think it's the lesser of the other two or the lesser of the three. Same thing with Wicked. I'm gonna put Wicked, even though I think it's certainly the lesser of the two. You know, a passion vote there is what's gonna matter most. Right. And so I think we're looking at a year. I mean, nothing is set in stone just yet, but I have a feeling that those passion votes will override these, you know. Oh, I guess I have to nominate this because this is what I'm supposed to nominate. But if I'm being a hundred percent honest, I wasn't that crazy about it. You know, I mentioned this in an earlier episode. Why not instead nominate neither of those and put something that you are passionate about? Yeah. Um this is the argument for I'm Still Here, by the way. Exactly. Exactly. And uh, you know, I think this is a very interesting year in a year where Neon might be able to take all foreign spots in best foreign language film. I think it might be a a a a breakthrough year where we see the most nominated of foreign films, best picture. Right now I'm feeling pretty good. I mean, everyone should be feeling good about sentimental value, and it was just an accident. But the secret agent is right there and ripe for the taking. And I think Sarat and maybe even something like Northern Choice, which did really well at the Golden Globes, right, are just right there to take those passion votes away from something like Wicked or Avatar or, you know, begonia for a filmmaker that's already been maybe some people might consider has already been, you know, handsomely rewarded.

SPEAKER_03: 40:42

Yeah. And and so before we saw the film, all the talk was on the sound design, and we had sort of said that sound for an international film is key to breaking into best picture. We've seen the film now. I think it's a great contender for sound design. And I think I would probably bet on it finishing in the top five there, and that bodes really well for it crashing into best picture. Um, I think we both sort of see it for foreign film.

SPEAKER_01: 41:08

Yeah, I think foreign film, and I think I I I I'm feeling good about original score.

SPEAKER_03: 41:12

Score is the tricky one because it did not get listed at the European Film Awards, which is kind of shocking, but it got the Golden Globe nomination. And usually the foreign films that get shortlisted there do end up getting a nomination.

SPEAKER_01: 41:24

Yeah, exactly. Um, I will say one of the categories that I feel best about is best casting. Right. You know, I think that casting is a highlight of the film. It makes absolute sense why that film would get nominated at the European Film Awards and make the shortlist for the Oscars. It absolutely deserves to be nominated for casting, and I think that it will.

SPEAKER_03: 41:40

Yeah, I I I think that remember that I think there's a casting bake-off, but if they can present a compelling argument, it's gonna be tough to not put that film for best casting, I have to say. Um, at the same time, so sound should contend in score, even though Mari Supreme might be an issue there because they're not again the traditional films you would nominate for score, um, and it missed that European film board nomination. I worry about that. We both have it for international film, casting. If you watch the film, and again maybe the bake off is what's gonna bite it in the butt at the end, but the work of the casting is really, really attention calling. Um, but then I'll go ahead and I'll say if the branch continues to want to include an international film in the cinematographer, in the set nominations for best cinematography, right, which have leaned towards including a a foreign film, right? A foreign film contender. You think about, for example, El Conde, who which got in. Last year Emily Perez got in and it was snubbed from the guild, right? And I had sort of pitched all year that the film just is not well shot enough, and um the the cinematographer is just not well known enough, and sort of the the uh concept behind the cinematography wasn't um fine-tuned enough to get in, it still got in because it was a major best picture movie. And so, do you think a shot exists where if I had to include a foreign film into best cinematography, is Surratt the option?

SPEAKER_01: 43:05

I think Surrat is the option for uh cinematography, even though I'm a big fan of the cinematography and the secret agent. I think it's gorgeous. Sonda Valling, too. Sonda Valling is incredible. Um but right now I feel pretty comfortable with the consensus five. I don't think that it'll depart much from those five.

SPEAKER_03: 43:23

It'll get short of an international title.

SPEAKER_01: 43:24

I think that it will, because I think the showiness of Frankenstein, which is the only one that I debate because you know he's been there, you know, already twice for Gamma Toro films. Um no, just once, I believe. No, twice, correct? Twice Shape of Water and I Morale. Um uh I wonder if you know they might say, you know, I want to nominate someone new, you know, and not another collaboration between the cinematographer and and and uh Gamel the Toro. But the showiness I think will prevail in the end for Frankenstein. So I think it'll be those five.

SPEAKER_03: 43:55

I I think that it's gonna be really close. But so I think right now I think we're looking at possibly on the high end, international film, original score, sound design, casting, cinematography, and I think that leads to a best picture nomination. Right. That's six. Right. It can go lower than that, right? And maybe you're right in midst of cinematography and it can still get five, and you can even lose score, for example, and still get four if it gets best picture. Right. Which would, again, I what I like is that idea where Neon is gonna push movies like The Secret Agent into Actor, because that's their best shot, and Jafar Panahi into original screenplay and best director, because that's their best shot, and sentimental value all over above the line because it's a foreign film that really flirts with being you know accessible enough to American audiences to enjoy, but then below the line, they're really gonna focus on Surratt. Yeah, which really puts no country, I'm sorry, excuse me, it really puts no other choice in a tough spot. Right. Um, but I do think, you know, after having screened the film, that the threat of Surratt is real in a bunch of categories, and I don't see it walking away with no nominations, and my gut says it'll get more than one.

SPEAKER_01: 45:03

Yeah, 100%. I agree. Um, I agree. And I think right now, I've maybe I just finished seeing it, but I feel pretty, pretty high on its possibilities to crash the best picture of 10.

SPEAKER_03: 45:14

The other really important thing that's gonna happen this week is we're gonna get uh some really important uh guild nominations um revealed. And so let's start digging into that.

SPEAKER_01: 45:24

Okay, and now we're gonna go to the ASC, the American Society of Cematographers, and predicting who they're going to be listing as their five nominees this year. The nominees will be out this week.

SPEAKER_03: 45:35

Um, right, so there's certainly, I think, some movies that are favorite to get in here, right? Um it looks like um Sinners should get in here, and that would be the first nomination for Autumn to Rawl Doc, Ark Paw, and um actually the first time that a Ryan Cooler movie makes it in. I think we both believe that Hamnet should like should be comfortable here, right? Yeah, um and Lucasal actually, I believe, got snubbed from a nomination here for the zone of interest, yeah. Exact zone of interest. Um and he won for Cold War, so this would only be his second nomination here. Um, but we do know like that this lineup should include some some previous skilled nominees and some new and some new um nominees, some first time nominees. So you have Autumn there. Um Lucasal should get in. Um I think we're both pretty confident about Train Dreams scoring here. Um, partly because uh uh the sent the DP Adolfo Veloso He's been on their radar. He's been on their radar because he got that nomination. Yeah, the spotlight award. Yeah, in 2021 for jockey, which was the previous film that he shot with Clint Bentley. Um so it should be the first time that he gets a nomination here. Um, sort of like when Lucasal got the spotlight award, I think, for Ida. Ida, yeah, before finally being nominated here for Cold War. Cold War, yeah. And so I think we're pretty confident about those three. I think you and I go back and forth about Frankenstein, right? Um, we know that um Dan Lawson has been nominated here twice for both Guillermo do Toro films. Both Guillermo do Toro films. We know actually that Guillermo do Toro, his first breakthrough at the Oscripts for cinematography was actually Pan Labyrinth, but it did not get nominated here, right? And so ever since then, he's been more on the radar of the cinematographers' guild um and cinematographers in general, and he has his you know his films immediately, you know, uh uh interest DPs to go and look at the work, and his collaboration with Dan Lawson has been very um productive and beneficial. Um, they've never won an Oscar, they've never won a Guild Award together. Um, I think what sort of we split hairs on is are they really gonna be do they like Dan Lawson enough to nominate him for a third time at the guild?

SPEAKER_01: 47:43

And also that his previous nominal previous nominations are all with also the same different filmmaker.

SPEAKER_03: 47:48

Exactly. Um, I don't know how many times that has happened before. Like, um, I do know that like three nominations is a little bit of a coveted thing. So, like, someone that comes to my mind, for example, is um uh Matthew Libatique, who's been nominated three times, twice with Bradley Cooper, once with Darren Aronofsky. Um uh Darius Kanji has the three nominations because of the Bardo uh mention recently, right? Um at Vita 7 again with three different filmmakers. Um Hoyta, Hoita Men Hoytema has three nominations, right? Um, and I think they're all with Chris, right? So I think maybe it's not a killer that Dan is still working with Gilendo Toro potentially for this nomination, but I do wonder do they consider Dan at the same level as Hoyta, yeah, who has a guild win and has an Oscar, yeah, right? Um Claudio Miranda is another uh DP with three, but he has an Oscar. And so some some of the DPs that only have two, for example, are Robbie Ryan, Dick Pope, Seamus McGarvey, and a lot of those guys worked with the same director, right? So Seamus McGarvey's two nominations come with Joe Wright, right? Atoman and Anna Karanana. Exactly, and um uh Robbie Ryan, of course, with all his collaborations with Yorgos. And so, like, do they like Dan Lawson enough to give him that third nomination?

SPEAKER_01: 49:12

I think you bring up a very good point, and I think of the five, this film, Frankenstein, would be the one to watch out for a possible snob. Um I think there's a showiness to the piece, and I think there's a scope to it, and I think that the historical importance, the the the uh literacy, import literacy importance of a Mary Shelley adaptation, you know, um uh might supersede what you're saying, possibly. And again, there's a really big scope to that film um that might attract them. Um, but I do I I I agree with you. I think it's it could get snubbed here.

SPEAKER_03: 49:51

The other thing that we see is usually in these guild awards, and we'll be we'll be predicting them as they go along, but usually what you'll see is it's the opportunity for these guild members to not vote just for the best work that they saw that year, but their favorite films. Oh, yeah, exactly. Right. And so, like, even if a DP's favorite work that year was Resurrection, for example, um, which I'm sure is beautiful, they're gonna be sort of in their mind, they're gonna be thinking about well, what were my favorite films and what are my favorite films that are actually contending for best picture? Right. And so, like, if you look at the consensus or what has sort of formed it as the consensus five for best picture, there's an issue because what you have is sentimental value and it was just an accident rounding out that top five, right? And we know that the DPs are gonna say, okay, what else, what else is there? Yeah, and so when you go down the list, the next biggest names are Train Dreams, which you and I think are very confident in, and Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_04: 50:42

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 50:42

Right. Um, and so you have to wonder, is there are they even gonna look that far? Are they just gonna go with consensus and say put both of those in? Right. Um, even if you know it means Dan and Guillermo get a third nomination for a collaboration. Um, I mean, maybe this would some in a maybe in a weird world, this will be the third couple collaboration and the first one they win. Yeah, because they'll hold it against Autumn. The fact that it's only her first guild nomination that could happen.

SPEAKER_04: 51:09

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 51:10

Um, the fifth person that most people have, and I think you and I are in agreement, will happen. But again, it's uh there's a little bit of a loophole here is Michael Bowman for one battle after another.

SPEAKER_01: 51:19

Yeah, right. Um I I don't see the loophole if you know if you could explain because I actually feel pretty confident in that one. Well, I mean, obviously it's shot in this division, which is gonna help.

SPEAKER_03: 51:28

It's also shot on Celluloid, which is also gonna help. Right. Um, but the issue with Michael Bowman is that he comes up sort of working as a gaffer and he works in so many productions and he does a brilliant job. But so then him and Paul Thomas Anderson get in uh you know start working together on Phantom Thread, and he eventually works his way into being the DP of Licorice Pizza and the DP of this film, um, this one being shot on VistaVision. But sort of he doesn't have that history of being a DP that usually comes with this guild domination, if that makes sort of sense. Right, right. Um, so in a way, he's one of the most veteran people on this list, right? Because he's been working for so long as a gaffer, and at the same time, he's the one with the least amount of credits as a DP because that's not his strength, or that that's not where he starts out. Right, yeah. Um, and so sort of in the same way where like Phantom Thread is beautifully shot, but it didn't get nominated here, right? Right, because of the whole that there's no DP. It was, you know, it's a shared, it's a shared DP. And so you have to kind of wonder like, how do they feel about that? Right. I remember when uh Corone was nominated here for shooting Roma, right? And so maybe that kind of shows us, oh well, they're gonna be open to you know, new concept of shared DP and no DP and whatever. At the same time, in general, Corone's films do well here and Paul's films have not always done well, right?

SPEAKER_01: 52:52

I think right, right. But uh, you're right, and I and I think that's valid. I think that the front runner status that one battle after another has, I think, will help kind of propel it into a uh into a nomination here, um, as well as as it was saying with Frankenstein, the sheer scope of that film, you know, the amount of uh not just the the task of VistaVision and Celluloid film, but you know, the sprawling sort of uh story that it has to encompass, I think is going to merit, you know, respect from his peers, which I think I think might also do a a lot to get him into those finals five in those those final five.

SPEAKER_03: 53:36

I mean, let's hope so. So I think we're predicting those as the five for the ASC, and I think we're also predicting those as the five for the Oscars.

SPEAKER_01: 53:45

Those are the five favorites for the Oscars. I do wonder again if there could be a surprise snub here with Frankenstein. This is a branch that is not afraid to go its own way and go against consensus. Yeah. I still remember 2022 when you know the nominees were all over the place.

SPEAKER_03: 54:01

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 54:01

And then eventually uh Talkamaverick wasn't even nominated at the And on Quiet Western Front, the winner of the Oscars wasn't nominated at the guild. Yeah. So they're not afraid to go against the grain, which I think might be interesting to see what happens here. I know last year there also there's a premonition aspect to this because if a film does well here that you didn't expect, you know, it could it could very well muster its way into the final five. I think we saw that similarly last year with Maria, which made a surprise mention here into the top five and was the only nomination for that film at the Oscars. So there's very much room here for there to be a surprise. And if there is one, I think we're both in agreement that the one off the chopping block would be Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_03: 54:42

I think I think also like some movies that could pop up here. I mean, Robbie Ryan is working with Yorgos again. Um, they've been nominated every time they've worked together, more or less. Um, Darius Kanji just got Iron Ferbardo, but he's on Mari Supreme, and I think he worked on Uncut Gems. Um, Claudia Miranda, who got snuffed from that Oscar, uh, could maybe pop up for F1. He did show up here in the guild for Maverick, but that would be four nominations for Claudia Miranda. Yeah, I don't know if that's too many.

SPEAKER_02: 55:08

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 55:09

Um, we talked about Ballad of a Small Player, sort of maybe surprising here because they just happen to really like Edward Berger films. Yeah, Edward Berger films they think are very visually told, and it seems like he is really tapping into what they like to see. And this is a whole new DP for him. Um, Seamus McGarvey got a great shortlist mention at the Oscars. That would be amazing, which would be fantastic. Um, but I really doubt it happens. Um, and then you have like some Oscar shortlist movies. I don't know if they can show up. I mean, Wicked for Good got nominated mentioned at the shortlist, and Wicked One was nominated here at the Guild.

SPEAKER_02: 55:43

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 55:43

Can they really nominate Alice Brooks twice? I don't know. I'm not sure about it, especially since there's still some controversy there, right? Um, and then you have sort of um a few foreign films that uh showed up at the Oscar shortlists and could potentially surprise here. Um uh Sound of Falling did well at the camera image and they like to have that crossover, and you've seen it and and you think it's really good. Um, we've talked about Surratt. Um Sentimental Value got uh an Oscar shortlist mentioned. Um can you imagine if Sentimental Value showed up here at the guilds? That would that would just go to show you how strong Sentimental Value is as a movie, right?

SPEAKER_01: 56:19

Um I think the one to watch out for is something like Noval Vaughn.

SPEAKER_03: 56:22

Right, right. I mean, because they do like to include movies that incorporate black and white. Um, like even last year there was no strictly black and white film. But if you consider all the infrared footage they had for Dune, you know, it's something that it's just gonna pop out to them. Um, someone that I'd love to see here is 28 years later. I'm not sure it's gonna happen.

SPEAKER_02: 56:42

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 56:43

Um, but yeah, I watch out for that last spot on this list to go to a movie that's not gonna factor in whatsoever.

SPEAKER_01: 56:51

Or and and possibly show up here and then muster its way into the final five because it just shows that there's a strong contingent of DPs that want to celebrate that that DP work or that DP.

SPEAKER_03: 57:03

Right. I also think it's kind of fun because this year we don't have like a huge iconic name. Like Ed Lockman was able to get in last year from Maria, but it's a lot of it is because he's Ed Lockman, right? We don't have Deacons this year, we don't have Lubeski, we don't have Lockman, and so there's a lot of like these um really iconic names in cinematography that are not going to be vying for a spot, and maybe that will compel them to you know accept the five that I think are favorite right now. Consensus. Yeah. So that's who we're predicting.

SPEAKER_01: 57:32

And now moving on to our nominee, our predictions for the DJ, the directors' Guild of America, which will also have, which will reveal its nominees this week as well. Um, I think there's some favorites here that should very much show up. I think Paul Thomas Anderson is certainly the favorite to win here and will definitely get his third DGA nomination, his the other two being Licorice Pizza and There Will Be Blood. He was unfortunately snubbed for everything else. Um and then we have Sinners, which will be Ryan Kugler's first inclusion here and the DGA, and we have Chloe Jia returning uh for Hamnet. Um and uh she will be she will join a very, very, very, very, very small group of female filmmakers to get double noms here, the others being Jane Campion, Greta Gerwig, and Catherine Bigelow. Right. Then I think it gets a little trickier. I think that the DGA hasn't been, as we've been discussing, prone to embracing too many foreign films into this into their select five. And so I think the smart money is that at the Oscars, those final two spots will be sentimental value and it was just an accident, even though you and I question strongly Chloe Zhao um making the final five. Right. But consensus would say that those are the other two to make into the final five and then possibly get into the DGA. I say that we should pick one of the foreign films. Right. It should be either sentimental value or it was just an accident, not both.

SPEAKER_03: 58:58

Now, can you imagine? Because this has been sort of our sort of narrative all year long for you and me, at least, is you know, are we gonna have subpar movies make it into these categories at the Oscars and round them out? Or are we gonna get passionate votes for international films and we're gonna see the most international Oscars ever of all time? And it's not necessarily for us a question of can Neon get five movies into foreign film? It's can Neon get one or two movies into categories throughout, whether it's below the line or above the line. And so it'll be interesting. Can you imagine if the DJ list does include the consensus five and its sentimental value and Japar Panahi? Like you can sort of that that's a that could be a sign that yes, we're on the route to having the most international Oscars of all time. Right. Um, but I think that you and I are sort of, you know, being a little conservative here and saying one international film, Amelia Perez did get in last year with Netflix, right? But I mean, this is a a guild where Anatomy of the Fall did not make it in, right? The zone of interest did not make it in. Make it in.

SPEAKER_04: 1:00:00

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:00:01

Right. Um, and so of the two, who are you thinking is is the better to make it in?

SPEAKER_01: 1:00:07

I think that again, if you know Jeff Harpinahi's work, you know it's very stripped down, it's very bare and still incredibly potent, but I think they like things that are a little bit showier. And I feel like there's a you know, Ingmar Bergman-esque vibe to Sentimental Value in a way. Good, good channel. Um, that I think uh would make me side with uh Sentimental Value being the film that gets in here for the director's guild.

SPEAKER_03: 1:00:35

I also kind of like that like more guild members are gonna be probably familiar with his work because he did get that nomination for the Oscars for the worst person in the world. And again, it is a foreign film, but it's but there's some English in it. It's so weird because you know it there's a lot of English in it, I would say. Uh a good percentage is in English. Um, it's gonna immediately appeal to modern times, contemporary times. Um it feels very, I don't know, um, relevant to an it almost feels like an American indie film in some ways, and so I think they're gonna enjoy that. Um you have these actors that have crossed, like Stanis Garsgard is an actor of an international scale, and so like you're gonna have as many American viewers and guild members that are familiar with him as um those abroad, right? Um and so I think you're right. Sentimental value is the one that should feel safest. Right, right. Um, if you're gonna take out Jafar Panahi, where do we go for a sort of a DGA-friendly list? Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:01:39

And if we're taking away other foreign film possibilities like Surratt and The Secret Agent, which could still possibly surprise at the Oscars, right? 100%. Um, I think we're left with, I think we came up to the conclusion that we're left with mostly three films to choose from for that last spot, and it would be Gail Mold Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Josh Safety for Money Supreme, and Clint Bentley for Train Dreams.

SPEAKER_03: 1:02:02

Okay, so like the three sort of American films that are like vying for spots six. Yeah. Right. Okay.

SPEAKER_01: 1:02:08

Certainly, you know, there's, you know, again, the the scope of Frankenstein might be enough, and he's beloved in the industry. Um uh that, you know, I just think a lot of people consider him to be one of our, you know, uh modern day cinema fathers in a way. So I think that that respect could go a long way to landing him in the final five here for DGA. But I think the recency bias of Marty Supreme, as we've been discussing, might go a long way. You know, it was really peaking around the time that they were voting um with box office, critical acclaim, uh, preview screenings. So I think the recency bias might propel Marty Supreme into that final spot for Josh Afty.

SPEAKER_03: 1:02:50

I think that's a a really strong choice. I will say, and and we'll talk about it as the show goes on, but like usually we've looked at it, and most of the time, A24, when they're campaigning, their inclusion at the DGA and is sort of tied in to their inclusion at the SAG. And so, like, if you look at a film like Moonlight or Everything, Every World At Wants, or even Minari, it gets both. Um, and so this could be a very good week for Mario Supreme because it could end up getting nominated for the Producers Guild, the Director's Guild, the SAG ensemble, or it could maybe be a little bit of a down swing, and maybe people did not watch it with enough time. So we're sort of saying, did it peak at just the right time, or are people a little bit late because you know, um the majority of the voting happened before this whole um, you know, uh before it's scored 56 million at the box office? Right. And so I know the brutalist last year was the rare A24 title to score a nomination at the director's guild and not get an A SAG ensemble. I think you and I go back and forth, and we'll talk about it on the show about the SAG possibilities from Marty. Can can Marty score a director's guild nomination on an SAG nomination? Maybe. Um, does Josh have to show up here to be not for an Oscar? No, because Lenny Abrahamson got in for room without a mention here.

SPEAKER_04: 1:04:11

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:04:11

Um, and so despite a 824 has a better track record at the Oscars Best Director category than at the Director's Guild Award, is what I'm saying.

SPEAKER_02: 1:04:18

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:04:19

Um, and so you're giving the edge to him over Guillermo. Yes, which I think is really interesting because Guillermo is such an iconic figure of the industry now, but he only has one nomination here.

SPEAKER_01: 1:04:29

Isn't that too few? Yeah, I think that's a good argument for you know, spoiling the list. Yeah. Uh uh I wonder if something like Train Dreams is it too indie too, too much of a Sundance indie to get in here, especially with alongside, you know, something like Sentimental Value, which I think you made an astute comparison to, you know, a kind of you know, has this indie vibe to it as well. I wonder if that's too small to get in here.

SPEAKER_03: 1:04:54

But I do like that it's a period piece. Like I I almost I almost like that the three movies were between are like these big scale films. Um I kind of wonder if, again, that the the aspect of it being a Mary Shelley adaptation, as you've said before and in other contexts, if that's gonna give the edge to Guillermo. Um and I I feel like the campaign is sort of, you know, it keeps highlighting this idea about Guillermo being this massive voice against, you know, uh uh reckless uh use of AI. And I feel like that's going to appeal to a lot of voters. So my gut says that it's probably not gonna be Josh and that it's probably gonna end up being Guillermo because I think he needs to have more nominations, and and like I think the the campaign has done a good job of sort of painting this as the passion project that he's been chasing for years, right? Right, right. Um, so I I I think it's it's gonna end up being close. Um I will say that if it does get in, we've always had this idea about Frankenstein being a strong contender for like screenplay. I think whoever gets in here in the final five, they should fare really well in screenplay. Um I'm not sure we think Guillermo has enough um fuel in the tank to finally make this five because again, whoever comes up in the five is gonna eventually have to come up against Jafar Panahi or one of those other foreign films. But I do think where we're at in the race right now, I think Guillermo should be able to get this final spot.

SPEAKER_01: 1:06:22

And and and you don't think Clint Bentley uh could be a surprise here?

SPEAKER_03: 1:06:26

I think if Clint Bentley gets this nomination here, it would be huge. And I think it would sort of signal that Train Dreams is going to do better than we think. Because I mean, I think most people are pegging what, train dreams for four nominations? Something like that, maybe four. Yeah. Uh I I would say that if Clint Bentley gets this nomination, the movie should score seven.

SPEAKER_01: 1:06:43

I just wonder if how often the sort of independent film, American independent film of the year, kind of doesn't get recognized. You know, again, sentimental value might, you know, kind of bridge that and a foreign kind of uh experience, cinema aesthetic. Uh, but just true and blue American independent film that's nominated the Independent Spirit Awards, that was nominated the Gotham Awards. That is possibly, if you look at the top eight, the independent film that isn't a foreign film and that isn't a big budget film because even Hamnet doesn't count. You know, if that film, if it's trained dreams, if that should go unnoticed by these awards bodies. That's a question mark.

SPEAKER_03: 1:07:28

That's an excellent, an excellent point. Um, and it's certainly, you know, for all of the vibes that Sentimental Value has, it is possibly, you know, it's carrying the banner for the best independent film of the year on the American side, right? It's been doing that ever since Sundance, um, and it's only solidified more. And so, like, this could be an excellent week of guild nominations for Train Dreams. And they're writing the whole idea where, like, shouldn't they have been nominated last year for Sing Sing, the same team? Right. And so I could definitely see that happening. And if it if it does happen, I think it's major. I think it's interesting that we're like also between two Netflix movies, Frankenstein and Train Dreams.

SPEAKER_02: 1:08:00

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:08:00

Um, but I do think like everyone should remember the five films listed here should be the five favorite for best picture at the Oscars, right? That's the whole point of the DGA, is to spell who the favorites are, not necessarily for best director at the Oscars, but for the best picture.

SPEAKER_02: 1:08:14

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:08:14

And so I think that we're sort of sensing Marty, Marty Supreme is breaking late, but it could crash the five. But had Marty Supreme maybe underdone a little bit of the box office, then maybe Frankenstein would have comfortably fit there with train dreams being a spoiler. Right. Um, so look out for those. I think consensus on the four, you're saying uh Marty on the fifth.

SPEAKER_01: 1:08:35

I'm saying I'm gonna go safe out of Marty, but I'm as we're talking, I'm I'm feeling you know a little bit more positive about train dreams.

SPEAKER_03: 1:08:43

Surprising. Interesting, because I feel I'm I feel like this is Guillermo's to lose. This is his spot to lose. Okay. All right, and so let's um take a look at the producer's guild awards, which uh should announce this week also. And so we've talked about the DGA and how that sort of um reflects a top five for the Oscar Best Picture um category. The PGA is gonna reflect, uh it's gonna do a better job of reflecting the 10 spots, right? Um I think last year, how many did they get right? I believe last year they got eight right. Right. Um they missed uh Nickel Boys and I'm still here. Right. And um I think instead they had nominated Real Pain, which is really close, and September 5th, which we thought maybe it was gonna break with just enough time to sneak in. Yeah, um, but these choices are really good. Like the year before in 2023, they had all ten.

SPEAKER_01: 1:09:32

That was a weird year though, like you know, where a lot of people were getting the top ten, right?

SPEAKER_03: 1:09:36

It was a weird year because like a strong consensus had formed, whether it was be you know, among Zone of Interest, Past Lives, Barbenheimer. Um so I think this year we should st we're yeah, I think we should maybe expect eight of these movies to make it into um the Oscar best picture.

SPEAKER_01: 1:09:51

I like eight, and I like you know, the top eight, which are I think are undisputably the top eight. Right. Those are I think the easiest ones to predict. So that's Sinners, one battle after another, Hamnet, Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, Bogonia, and Train Dreams. I think or rather, rather, actually, I think I overstepped there. Uh we're going to talk about Bogonia, but it's train dreams. Sinners one battle, Hamnet, Sentimental, Frankenstein, Marty, and Train Dreams. All right, so then seven. Seven, seven.

SPEAKER_03: 1:10:21

There's seven that you're comfortable with. Yeah. Um, I will say we're still unlike our trend watch, which is how many international films can get in here. Um, we did see last year the inclusion of Amelia Perez, but they did not, but I'm still here. But the year before, where they got 10 right, notice they got 10 right, they included more international films. They did list zone of interest um and anatomy of a fall. Um, so we definitely feel comfortable about sentimental value making it into the top seven as an international film.

SPEAKER_01: 1:10:51

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:10:51

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:10:51

The question is if it's gonna be more than one.

SPEAKER_03: 1:10:53

The question is, can it be more than one? We know that the favorite right now um to finish, you know, and best director and possibly the best picture five, um, typically at the Oscars, would probably be Jafar Panahi's movie. But I think my gut impression is that the film is gonna be too quiet and too much of a contemporary piece to make it in here. I don't know if you agree.

SPEAKER_01: 1:11:14

No, I think that's very possible, yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 1:11:15

I think it'll get out muscled by bigger, you know, Hollywood fair, if if that makes sense. Um, then people talk about the secret agent, right? And I don't know if it peaked with enough time. You know what I mean? To me, a secret agent almost reads a little bit more like I'm still here, where it'll peak after Golden Globes night. I don't know if if you or or do you think the secret agent has a good shot of making it in here?

SPEAKER_01: 1:11:39

I think there's an up there's a retro appeal to the secret agent, um, which is an incredible film, if you guys haven't seen it, you know, that I think a lot of a lot of uh PGA voters, and especially male PGA voters, might respond to. Um I think that's going in its favor. So I think I would I wonder if it's the kind of year, you know, that we're we're we're on our track, we're on track to have, as you were saying, the most uh, you know, foreign films ever celebrated at the Oscars. If that should be reflected here at the PGA, almost as if like, you know, it's unescapable. You know, they're gonna have to include at least one more foreign film.

SPEAKER_03: 1:12:19

Oh, that I like that. I so you're thinking that at least one more has to get in.

SPEAKER_01: 1:12:22

That's what that's more my gut says right now.

SPEAKER_03: 1:12:24

I'm kind of thinking that maybe you agree, but Surratt probably might not be the one to get into the PGA. Do you agree with that?

SPEAKER_01: 1:12:32

Um for me, it's on a similar level as the secret agent. I still think that they're both better options than it was just an accident.

SPEAKER_03: 1:12:41

Also, no matter what you think it was just an accident, is a little bit lower on that end, possibly because it's a little bit more of a minimalist film. Right. Right. Right. Um, even though it is, again, the buzziest, right, of the three. Right. Like after sentimental value, typical Oscar Logic would sort of say that it was just an accident, it's a top five movie um and a top five director spot. Um, if producers, guild voters are aware of that, they can just, you know, jot the film down, even if it is not necessarily what you and I would, you know, think is something that would traditionally appeal with um for them, you know, whether it's the sound and the cinematography, the location shooting, the costume designing, the production design of either Surratt or The Secret Agent. Um, if they're aware that it is, you know, a film that is is is favored to get in, they can put it in. Sort of like kind of it's a it's maybe it's a good example of like past lives. Like um, it's tremendously produced and it's produced like between two countries, which I think helped to get that spot, right? But it's also a very quiet film, a very nuanced film, very subtle film. Um the benefit of past lives that I think you and I agree it was just an accident does not have is again produced between two countries, killer films, Christine Vichon, um, but also um uh money like it made good money here. I mean, it was just an accident, came out in October, and and and like no one even come out here. Exactly. It barely made a dent anywhere, right? Obviously, maybe they have bigger plans for an expansion um this year after it gets a best picture nomination. Um, but so I think one film that you sort of we had mentioned, right, as the eighth film, um, because it should be comfortable at the same time, like it hasn't gotten enough push to break into definitively the top ten at the same time and hasn't been ignored enough to take it out. It sort of fits enough of the bill to to to include it, would be begonia. Yeah, right. Um, and so it got the Golden Globe nomination for best picture, right? Um, it did well at the European Film Awards, right? It got, I think, like six nominations or something like that. And they're not they're familiar with Yorgos, right? Yeah, um obviously I'm a stone, they like a lot. Um, so it would make sense to include begonia. Begonia didn't do, I mean, it did pretty well at the box office, too. I mean, the budget was pretty high, yeah. That is close to 20 mil. Um, so it's not bad, respectable. I mean, I think the budget's like 80. I don't I think the budget is 80. I think the budget is 50, but the American box office receipts are, I think, are almost at 20. It's on streaming now. Um, but it seems like the kind of film that they could respect enough to be nominated, right? Um, I don't know if if you agree with that.

SPEAKER_01: 1:15:19

Yeah, yeah. But I but I liked the the crossover that you explained to me the other day about Golden Globe Best Pictures and PGA.

SPEAKER_03: 1:15:28

Usually I think what we've been seeing over the last few years, last four years maybe, is that a lot of the PGA nominees should come out of the Golden Globe Best Picture nominees. So sort of like the producers' guild voters, the first thing they're referencing to finish their top 10 is looking at whoever got on at the Golden Globes and Bugonia did get that nomination. And some films, you know, that should be favored here did not get that nomination. So is that going to inspire producer guild voters to say, oh, I want to include these movies that were snubbed at the Golden Globes? Or are they gonna take this sort of um attitude of the Golden Globes and say those films were just not good enough? And so what were some of those films?

SPEAKER_01: 1:16:05

Those films were the two that come to mind are Wicked for Good and Avatar Fire Night.

SPEAKER_03: 1:16:10

Exactly, which were both nominated, like um Way of Water was nominated at the PGA, Wicked One was nominated the PGA, but they were also Golden Globe Best Picture nominees. This year the Golden Globe said no to both. Despite giving Wicked five nominations, despite giving it five nominations, it still said we're not gonna nominate you for best picture in favor of Nouvelle Vogue and Blue Moon, right? And so do are the voters at the PGA gonna feel the same way, right? Um, which is kind of tough because those are two of your bigger box office movies, and the list could use that. I mean, we have sinners, but they are those two are the bigger box office movies. Um when you look at movies that got in.

SPEAKER_01: 1:16:48

Yeah, but like we we've been talking about it, you know, these voters for the PGA are not, you know, um averse to choosing a different kind of film to be nominated as opposed to a money-making film. I think about Has of Gucci, where everyone was predicting that that was definitely gonna get a PGA nomination in 2021, I believe. Um, and it's still missed. Right. And why? Because the quality just wasn't up to bar. Right. So they're not averse to excluding films that they think are just not at that level quality-wise.

SPEAKER_03: 1:17:20

I think that's a solid point. Um, and I think that's gonna be an argument for keeping Avatar and Wicked off the list this year. I do wonder if money is going to become a factor. Um, you have some other blockbusters, like for example, F1. Um, but I do think that the times that you don't have a Golden Globe best picture nominee making it into the PGAs, um, what you usually see is a few more other films that got ironed for um a Golden Globe. So, like one film that we had thought early on had a good chance here, and I still think on paper, if it's the bill is Nuremberg, right? Um, it made a decent amount of money, was shot relatively cheap, um, has good historical context, um, but it didn't get ironed for any golden globes, which kind of puts it at a disadvantage, right? Um, but some movies um that were able to get a golden globe nomination and then make you know leverage that into a PJ nomination, included The Whale, a Black Panther, um, and so Avatar is still a Golden Globe nominee. F1 is a Golden Globe nominee, technically.

SPEAKER_00: 1:18:18

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:18:18

Um, Weapons is a Golden Globe nominee because Amy Madigan got it. I like weapons. I mean, I think weapons is a dark horse because it made a good amount of money, yeah, right?

SPEAKER_02: 1:18:27

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 1:18:28

Um, and it would be really interesting to see weapons here um in one of the final spots.

SPEAKER_01: 1:18:34

Um I think in my gut at least, despite not having for example, why wouldn't they say it's just in my opinion, you know. So, for example, I think one reason as you as you're insinuating we like begonia is because if we're not going to consider Golden Globe best picture nominees like Surat, I mean The Secret Agent, Blue Moon, no other choice, no, no other choice, Nova Vogue. We're left with less films, right? Among them begonia.

SPEAKER_03: 1:19:02

Yeah. But I think if you take away the the films that we haven't put in the PGA top ten yet, and you take away the foreign films that went iron for the golden globes, you're sort of left between a couple of interesting movies, Begonia, right, which could just be liked enough to finally get there and squeak into the top 10.

SPEAKER_02: 1:19:19

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 1:19:19

Um, here and at the Oscars, in theory. And you have Blue Moon, yeah, right, which we're saying is looking like a stronger contender for Ethan Hawk, to one best actor.

SPEAKER_01: 1:19:28

100%. But I also think there's an aspect to Blue Moon that, you know, at least we've talked to some people who feel that the film is kind of static. You know, they were a little bit, you know, uh, you know, lack of a better term, bored by the film. You know, I stagey stagey. Um, and sorry, the film is very well done. Um, and and I do expect it to do well at the Oscars, more more than people are expecting, but I don't think that this is a place where it would do well.

SPEAKER_03: 1:19:55

A PGA at the PGA, because again, it is not necessarily, you know. The most produced film, right? Um, and so that kind of leaves us just with begonia. Yeah. And I think I think the lowest we've gone over the past four years with best picture nominees, uh, the Golden Globe Best Picture Nominees crossover with the Golden Globes is eight. In 2022, they had eight films from the Golden Globes Best Picture get in. And so with begonia, we would have seven. No, I think we have eight. No, because Train Dreams didn't get nominated for a oh, that's right. We'd only have seven because Train Dreams got snubbed there. Um, so if we if we include those seven, which again is is a low, is a low, but there's nowhere else to go, right? Um, and we include train dreams because it did get an acting nomination at the Golden Globes, and you know, it's a standout independent independent title. Um, and you know, kind of interestingly enough, Sing Sing did not get nominated here last year, and so maybe that could be a little bit of a makeup for the uh creative team behind Train Dreams. If we if we put that in, there's eight, we have only two more spots to go. The question is, does it break in favor of international films or box office films?

SPEAKER_01: 1:21:01

Right. And I also wonder, though, along those same lines, if, as I was mentioning earlier, we might still get an overlap of eight films and I for Golden Globe's best picture, because it's the kind of year that stands to make history in regards to foreign films, that they're gonna not have a choice and they're going to have to include at least one other foreign film, right? Which would leave us with either another choice, uh, it was just an accident, or what I think might be the best option, which is the secret agent.

SPEAKER_03: 1:21:28

Oh, so the secret agent in this list.

SPEAKER_01: 1:21:30

I'm thinking. I'm thinking about that. You know, I wonder if that's gonna be the eighth film that overlaps, one of another foreign film.

SPEAKER_03: 1:21:38

I mean, there are some other films that could potentially show up, like we talk about weapons and it's not golden globe nomination for for Amy Madigan. Jay Kelly on paper isn't a terrible PGA nominee, even though it again inexplicably people missed the Golden Globe best picture nomination in favor of Blue Moon again. Could Jay Kelly maybe make it in here? Possibly. My gut at the end says that the last two spots are gonna go to money, it's gonna go to Avatar, Fire and Ash, and Wicked for Good. That's what my gut says.

SPEAKER_01: 1:22:05

I'm gonna say that they're gonna pull a 2023 and they're going to include another foreign film, either The Secret Agent, or it was just an accident, one of those two. And the final nominee will be a money-making film that we like. We liked this film, weapons.

SPEAKER_03: 1:22:23

Oh, so you th oh I I I like that. I like that idea that the money, the the film that's representing the box office is gonna be an original film, a surprising film, a film in profit, um, a horror film. Um, that would be a huge get for weapons. I think you had said something about like, you know, what do they care about? They're not gonna have any bias against nominating weapons because look at Deadpool.

SPEAKER_04: 1:22:45

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 1:22:46

Now, granted, you know, the weapons money is nowhere near the Deadpool money, but it's still really good. I mean, again, the film is should be healthily in profit. Right. Um, so I mean, between potentially a PGA nomination here for weapons and maybe a surprise showing at the SAG, it could be a great week for weapons. Right. Um so you're gonna go with a foreign film.

SPEAKER_01: 1:23:09

A foreign film to to to meet that eight crossover between Golden Globe as Picture and PGA. And I don't know, I just feel like they don't have to go, they don't have to settle for Avatar or for Wicked. Uh-huh. They can just put something like weapons that made money and is an original product. Um, yeah. So I and in the event that it wasn't weapons, they'd have to choose between Avatar and Wicked, and I wonder if Avatar has the edge uh because of its sort of technological innovation. Um John Landau also. John Landau. Exactly. Um I right now I'm gonna go with weapons. Weapons and a foreign film.

SPEAKER_03: 1:23:45

I've liked it. I've always said that weapons should have this should be like a great week for weapons between a nomination at for SAG Ensemble, possibly, a nomination at the Producer's Guild Award, a writer's guild nomination. So, like, even if weapons can't make it all the way, the guilds that gave nominations to Deadpool, a nomination to A Quiet Place, a nomination to Crazy Rich Asians, they should embrace the film.

SPEAKER_04: 1:24:08

Yeah, 100%.

SPEAKER_03: 1:24:09

Um, so we'll see if that happens. I kind of like that. I I I can't, you know, shake off the idea that you'll just see money squeeze in here, and the final two spots will end up going to Avatar and Wicked. Okay.

SPEAKER_01: 1:24:23

Okay, and now we're gonna go to our predictions for the SAG nominees, which will also be revealed this week. The SAG is a crucial award because they'll get at least, you know, more often than not, around 15 people correct in their acting categories. And if you can solve the key of the acting categories, I think solving the keys of all the other races becomes easier. At least that's the way that I like to look at it. Uh, I think the sag is crucial, and I think a lot of voters who are voting are looking at the sag, what the union voted for, and taking their cues from there. So I would say that the sag is always something I look forward to, not because they have great nominees. A lot of times it's a mixed bag, but because it's very revealing as to who is uh on their radar, who's not, who needs to fight a little harder, who need who can relax a little bit. And um I think the puzzle pieces will start becoming clearer as to who stands to miss and who stands to take those places.

SPEAKER_03: 1:25:29

And so, and there are definitely like you know, movies that will appeal more to SAG. So, for example, look for you know, maybe some more middle-of-the-road conservative biographical stuff. I remember when, for example, Jennifer Hudson got in for respect, right? Um, and that can sort of happen, right? And then the other thing is I think you had said that depending on how the sag votes, it's maybe gonna give us a little bit of um insight as to maybe how many solo nominees we'll have, right? And maybe like how many partners we'll get in. I mean, like we talked about last year when um Timothy Chalamet got in with um the actress who uh played Joan Baez in supporting actors or Monica Barbaro, exactly. So it it it sort of lets us know like maybe, you know, are they gonna prioritize putting a real person in? I don't think, for example, that you know, if if the sag puts X amount of real people, I think the officers are gonna try to at least repeat a percentage of that, right? And so those are some insights that you've talked about in the past, right? That the nominee should reveal.

SPEAKER_01: 1:26:25

Right. And I I think that even the set of 20 actors, it'll still become clear, you know, who is you know, who's weaker and who's more vulnerable to a snub uh as opposed to those who I think are stronger and and and and very unlikely to get a snub. Um they're not gonna be perfect, don't expect them to be perfect. And in fact, there are some head scratching conservative picks every year. But more often than not, those conservative picks tend to be the ones that they're that are most vulnerable. Um uh don't expect out-of-the-box picks like Amanda Seifried in the Testament of An uh the Testament of Ann Lee or Wagner Mora uh for the Secret Agent, even though those would be big gets if they did get it. Um expect, you know, something more conservative for you know some selections. But overall, I really like this award because I really feel like I start to really be able to see what the final 20 are gonna be. Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:27:24

Um you look at it as like a 20 sort of a 20-piece puzzle.

SPEAKER_01: 1:27:28

Yeah, and I and I'm I can already kind of sense, you know, where are the weaknesses here. Yeah. And certain people, certain contenders really need a bump here, right? Um to I think uh solidify their campaign and their status in the race. Right.

SPEAKER_03: 1:27:42

It's sort of like a macro view, right? Because since you're looking at it as a 20-piece puzzle as opposed to a five-piece puzzle, it lets you know, for example, which movie has, you know, pieces in more than one category or more than two categories, or um, where was maybe uh a very popular film left off. Remember when Kills of the Flower Moon had a piece on ensemble, a piece in supporting actor and supporting actress, but they decided to leave off Theo DiCaprio. Right. So all those things are are what you're saying could be revealing.

SPEAKER_01: 1:28:08

Right. So so I'm gonna be very curious to see these this year's group of nominees. Also, their best ensemble category, you know, as of late, certainly, I mean, in the past, if you look at their history, they've had some really interesting choices, but as of late, their ensemble category is like their best picture category. So expect films that don't necessarily have large ensembles to possibly get spotlighted here, right? Because for them, it's a best picture.

SPEAKER_03: 1:28:32

It's an equivalent to a best picture nomination. I mean, I think that's interesting. I think let's kick off and talk about ensemble. I think before we begin, an over another overarching trend that we've been talking about as we've been speaking about these guild nominations that come out this week. Again, how well are international films gonna do here? Let's start with ensemble, and I'll start by saying international films have been known to sort of perform poorly here. Yes, right? A number of um international films that get into the eventual best picture list, whether it's Zone of Interest or Anatomy of a Fall, you know, they tend not to pick up a nomination here. Um, so like for example, last year Emila Perez was a little bit of an outlier. Parasite won this category, that was also an outlier. Um, can we see a foreign film here? I think it's very possible. Let's start by saying that the two most safe movies and the two movies that should be battling, I think, for the win should be Sinners and One Battle after another. And one battle after another, two Warner Brothers movies. And so we really only have three open spots, right? Right. Um uh I don't know who you think you who in your gut you feel is safest after that.

SPEAKER_01: 1:29:38

I mean, considering the options that we do have and the kind of year that it's been, and it's a very foreign language heavy film, as we've been stating earlier in the podcast. Um, I would look for them to prioritize a a uh best picture favorite that doesn't necessarily have again a huge ensemble, but it's a top three movie, and that's Hamnet, um, which is odd because they're it's not a huge cast. Um, I really feel like they're three adults and like three kids. Three adults? Who was a third adult on that? Emily Watson, who gets a daughter. Yeah, she gets a she gets a moment, and she might get a bat, she might get a bafter name at the end of the day. Um, and there's and then the performances from the children. Um, and and and and Noah Jupe, you know, as as hand as Hamlet. My point is that it's certainly not ensemble feeling. Yeah, it doesn't feel like an ensemble. It's very much would fit into like, for example, giving the theory of everything an ensemble nomination when that felt like a two-hander. Yeah. Um, but again, it what matters is their their favorites, the top, the the top best picture picks, and that you know, some of the other picks, you know, aren't necessarily their cup of tea either. So when we think of something like Frankenstein, is that really their cup of tea? Not necessarily. Train dreams, not necessarily. Um, so I like it for that reason. Competition, and it's a top three best picture movie.

SPEAKER_03: 1:31:02

I think something that's sort of interesting there that you can sort of allude to is, you know, the Shakespeare element, maybe we know Shakespeare and Love did well here, but you know, Shakespeare actors, could that be something that maybe gives it an edge here?

SPEAKER_01: 1:31:15

Yeah. So I would say Hamnet. And then I think as we were stating with the PGA, I think it's the kind of year where I think nominating a foreign language film is unavoidable because so many of the strongest contenders are foreign language films. And so I would go with the, I guess, easier foreign language film to spotlight here, and that sentimental value. There's some English in it. I think that helps. There's some uh American presence slash, you know, filmmakers. I mean, uh actors that filmmakers are and other actors are aware of, like Stan Skarsgaard. So I would look for something like sentimental value to place here as well, even though, again, that's you know, in a way, a good ensemble because everyone gets a a place to shine, maybe in another way, not a great ensemble because it's really a chamber piece of four actors with four actors.

SPEAKER_03: 1:32:05

Right. I mean, I think we have another element here, not unlike Hamnet's, right? Where again, since it is sort of about the industry and about actors, could that be yet another advantage for this movie?

SPEAKER_01: 1:32:17

Yeah, uh, you're right. Uh, that's a really good point. I think that'll help. That last spot is the trickiest spot for me. I feel pretty good about those four. That last spot is tricky because let's see, they would welcome something like Wicked, which got nominated last year. In fact, I think it was among, if not the most nominated film that year. We got four nominations. They would nominate Wicked, except the sag is not great at repeating often. I know the Lord of the Rings trilogy did get nominated all three times, I believe, for Cast Ensemble, yeah, which is no small thing. But again, when we talk about Wicked for Good, that's not Lord of the Rings territory because the second one's you know, very, you know, significantly underperformed the first one in terms of critical acclaim. How far reaching is that? How many actors feel that way? Or will actors do similar to what they did in 2021 with House of Gucci? And I don't care, I enjoyed it, so I'm nominating it for five things.

SPEAKER_04: 1:33:12

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:33:13

Um, I don't sense that because even if Lord of the Rings was able to repeat three times back to back, you know, there certainly weren't repeat nominations for actors in those movies. So Ian McKellen didn't get nominated repeatedly for all three, etc. Right. Um, so I certainly expect there if there is a presence of the Wicked franchise in the ceremony, there will be a dip. There won't be four nominees. Yeah, um, maybe it's just an ensemble nomination and no acting, right? Maybe it's an acting or two and no ensemble nomination, maybe it's nothing.

SPEAKER_03: 1:33:44

The other question is like, how out of favor could Wicked for Good have fallen to go from what was already a high of I think four nominations? Um, how few could it go here? And could it even go to zero? That's something that I think we're all thinking about. Um, so certainly Wicked is there. I mean, if this is the equivalent of the actors union declaring what their five favorite films are, we know that obviously they're gonna choose films that cater to actors, so don't expect, you know, Avatar to show up the same way that you shouldn't necessarily expect, you know, gravity to show up. But I mean, what about Frankenstein? I mean, Frankenstein seems like it's solidifying itself as one of the top five movies that are in the English language.

SPEAKER_01: 1:34:27

Well, be you know, tying uh a little bit of you know Frankenstein with Wicked for Good on another uh one other note I wanted to mention was that you know, since SAG Aftra expanded, you know, there are in the group itself, you know, I think is more prone to you know being welcoming of populist picks than they might have been 20 years ago, 10 years ago. Um, so that's something to keep in mind. I think there are, you know, possibly even influencers to a certain degree, to a certain extent, who might even be able to vote for this award. So it's always a good uh it's always a good uh advice to to to consider films that were popular um and that many people saw, and that, you know, not necessarily have to be among the most critically revered films of the year. In fact, I think that's something that really helped the first wicked, um, something that helped something like House of Gucci, something that helped, you know, Crazy Richasians. You should, you know, consider a populist pick amongst this group. Um, that being said, there is something like Sinners already part of the group, you know, which I think is a popular film that a lot of people saw and admire. You know, do they need to put something like Wicked? I'm unsure. On the note of Frankenstein, I think that's also a film that a lot of people saw and liked and could be popular. And um, I think uh because of those reasons, it stands on a possibility of breaking into these, into, into this group, the top five. Um, however, you know, it's it's period, you know, it's lengthy, it's an adaptation, you know, uh, it's fantasy driven, which we already have a little bit of that in Sayers. You know, could I see that? Can I see Frankenstein fitting in here? I'm not confident.

SPEAKER_03: 1:36:08

Well, let me let me name drop just a few more movies that at least were sort of in the periphery that we were considering before we come up to I think the final movie that we sort of settled upon. Um obviously there are the international films, and they could also be the secret agent and no other choice that they're handicapped here, unlike Sentimental Valley, which again, you know, borders on being an American independent film and has um a lot of uh things that are gonna uh immediately appeal to uh a more um general movie going American audience. Um I think moving away from uh Nouveau Vogue and things like that. Um there's maybe something to be said about you know Jay Kelly, which is about an actor, maybe something to be said about Begonia, right? Um Emma Stone is in that and Jesse Plemens. Um I think I think obviously Blue Moon is too much of a one-person thing. At one point, Nuremberg looked really good, um but it missed all the Golden Globes. I don't think that's a a killer, but uh Russell Crowe does really well here. Um it wouldn't be a shock to me. Um other outlier things that at least occurred to me were, for example, rental family. Um they would like to they would probably would've probably appealed to them. Um uh something like uh The Life of Chuck, for example. I I wouldn't completely count out the long walk, things like that, but it seems like they lack a lot of steam. Um there's something about the SAGs, about how they've sort of um not just embraced populist pics, as you've said, but there's this kind of trend that we've noticed about you know them sort of rallying around a film directed by an actor. And one of those that comes to mind at the forefront is Bradley Cooper's film, Is This Thing On? Right? Which probably should have been a bigger thing. If it's not, um could it pop up here somewhere? Maybe, maybe it's not an ensemble, maybe maybe one of the other categories, it's something to be aware of. Um but you know, whether it's A Real Pain directed by Jesse Eisenberg, right? Um, or whether it's One Night in Miami directed by Regina King, um Lady Bird, directed by Greta Gerwig, um, even something like uh Captain Fantastic, directed by Matt Ross. There's something about SAG actors, union actors sort of rallying around these films directed by a fellow performer that sometimes, you know, it tends to you tend to at least see a little bit of residue or DNA from that throughout, you know, at least pop up once or twice during nominations. I mean, is this thing on as one of them? But the final film that I think we sort of settled on was maybe Zach Kregger's film, Weapons. Yeah. Right. And so what do you think maybe may appeal to them? Do you give up with that nomination?

SPEAKER_01: 1:39:02

I certainly like that it's very cast driven. You know, there are a lot of actors in it. Each one kind of gets their own chapter and their own ability to shine. Um, I like that it was a massive hit, so it has that populist factor. I think it's a film that a lot of people saw. Yeah, I think it's a critically acclaimed film, unlike a film like, for example, Wicked for Good. Um, and I worry about the fantasy elements for the film, especially then, you know, we already have one in Sinners. Maybe they want to try something different. There also isn't a lot of diversity in that movie. Um, I believe most of the actors are white. Maybe the principle isn't.

SPEAKER_03: 1:39:35

Right. Um They all do have some previous nominations. You got Josh Poland, yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:39:41

Right. And so they're known actors, they're I think respected actors. Some of them are character actors, and it was a huge hit that I think most people saw. Um, so those are the main reasons.

SPEAKER_03: 1:39:54

Right. I think I think also it helps to remember that this is the same award show that gave um You know, a win to Emily Blunt for a quiet place where she didn't really where she barely said a word, right? And so I do think that genre does well here, right? Um, and I do think that weapons is the unique genre picture that relies on an ensemble of actors. Um, and I also think you know, just marrying that idea of ensemble, widely seen genre, um, populist pick, and a critically acclaimed film that that, and then also the idea that Amy Madigan could potentially be a strong contender to win supporting actress, you know, I think that may give it an edge. And again, Zach Kreger, you know, who's known for his work on the whitest kids you know, and um has worked in front of the camera, not just behind the camera. I think that could maybe end up being something that helps the film pop a little bit.

SPEAKER_01: 1:40:54

I agree 100%. Um, would I be shocked if it doesn't get in? No, I won't. Like I said, we already have a little bit of genre here enough with sinners, who I think is the you know, the favorite to win this category. Um, but it's also something that makes sense, you know, feels like something that they would do, especially if the best thing you're giving me is, you know, Wicked for Good or Frankenstein or a foreign film or Bogonia. Right. You know, I'm not sure that weapons couldn't take those movies on for this final spot.

SPEAKER_03: 1:41:24

Right. And even something like Jay Kelly, for example, again, I understand how it's tough with Jay Kelly because I feel like it could appeal to as many voters as it, you know, turns off, right? Because as an actor, it's it's they obviously they like seeing films that tackle the subject of acting, but when the whole thing sort of falls on the shoulder of, you know, celebrity and things like that, I've always thought that it's gonna be a little bit more of a risky play, right?

SPEAKER_01: 1:41:53

Right, right. And then the other film that I think is a favorite to get in here that we considered was Marty Supreme. Yeah. As we said earlier on the show, you know, I do feel that's a film that's really anchored around one person. Those films tend to not get nominated for Best Ensemble cast. Think again of Adrian Brody and you know, The Bootalists, There Will Be Blood, uh, Daniel DeLewis and There Will Be Blood, Francis McDorman and Nomad Land. Yeah, those films by no means had poor casts, they had very good casts, yeah, but they don't necessarily draw the eye to the cast. Right. Um, there are again a lot of ostentatious choices for casting in Marty Supreme. Yeah, it might be a complication, right? Might be a complication for them. They might, you know, it might feel weird to nominate a film that has, you know, Mr. Wonderful in it, right? Her best cast ensemble, Gwyneth Patrol, haven't seen her in a while, Decision, she's just trying to break out. Tie the Creator. Yeah, Tyler the Creator. So it's very eclectic, but that might be a con. Right. In this instance. I mean, Friend Dresher's in it. Friend Dresher. She used to be the president. Right. Um, yeah, but for some reason, the unorthodox casting of it all.

SPEAKER_03: 1:43:00

I mean, looking at history, like I will say that to your point, it doesn't seem like I can quote a time that that's happened before. Like, I think about something like Licorice Pizza that had Alana Haim in it, and I believe it had Tom Waits in it. Yeah, had a great cast, had a fantastic cast. I only got one thing. It didn't get nominated for ensemble. And it's very ensemble, it certainly is very ensemble-y. Yeah. But there's just something about that idea of as an actor, when you vote for Best Ensemble, I think part of the fun is to nominate actors that you know of, that you look up to, that you've worked with in the past. Exactly, yeah. And there's there's a lot about Marty Supreme that you know that that's not the case because you're sort of casting from outside the traditional actor pool. Right. Right. Um, and so I think that's why we're sort of sidelining it. Right. Even though technically, if it does get an honor for a DGA and uh usually for an A24 film, a DGA nomination accompanies a SAG ensemble nomination. So for the Buddhist last year. Exactly. Except for the Brutalist, and it made sense for the Buddhist. And I will say that Marty Supreme is more casty than the Brutalist. Yeah, the Buddhist is like a three-hander, and Marty Supreme is a one-man show with a bunch of great cameos.

SPEAKER_01: 1:44:12

Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. So we're going with weapons.

SPEAKER_03: 1:44:14

All right. So then why don't you talk to us a little bit about the category of best actress?

SPEAKER_01: 1:44:19

Well, best actress is a is a very interesting category because I think there's only two safe people, and that's Jesse Buckley, and that's also Renato Reinesva for uh Renato Rheinsva for sentimental value. Should be the rare sort of foreign language performance to get in. Yeah, we've seen that happen as of late, you know, as always Aldania and got in with uh Carlos Sofia Gascon last year, but we shouldn't see too many of those. So I would caution listeners to not expect there to be, you know, Wagner Mora and Renato Randsva and Inga Absature and Libyun and Lee Biangen. That's not gonna happen. Now that might happen at the Oscars, but it won't happen here.

SPEAKER_03: 1:45:00

But if it does happen at the SAG, then you know that again, we're we're we're heading down that road of the most international Oscars ever.

SPEAKER_01: 1:45:08

Right. But it's uncharted territory, and uh we fully don't expect that to happen, but I think this is one spot where it will comfortably happen. Um I think uh actors remember her work from Worst Person in the World, and also she speaks some English here as well. Um, and so I think those two are pretty safe. She's an actor, she plays an actor. Right, she played she plays an actor and uh and also a theater actor. Um I think those two are safe. It's about the other three spots that is uh interesting. Um, I personally don't think that Cynthia Reeves will get nominated here. I think when you look at the individual acting categories, they're pickier about repeat nominations. And certainly Cynthia Reeves already has two nominations here in this uh in the sag for um on the film. Yeah, for exactly for Harriet and for uh Wicked. She was just nominated last year. I personally don't see the urgency to nominate her this year, especially if she's not gonna win. And especially if, again, the film is not what the first one was. Um Emma Stone makes sense. Uh because she lost this award. If she lost this award in 2023, however, you know, they might think that, you know, if we're looking for contenders to fill these last three spots, and if they can't find anyone that they latch on to to uh if they can't find someone to latch on to, then they could always fall for, you know, uh liking Emma Stone and the commitment to the role. She shaved her head, yeah. Even though I don't think Yorgos always does well with these, um with this group either. Um, or it does just okay, not like the Academy Awards, right, um, or the Golden Globes. So I think Emma Stone is an option, but I'm not convinced. Um, I don't think someone like Amanda Seifried and the Testament of Ann Lee will will speak to them. I think it's too artsy for them. Um Chase Infinity is an interesting one. I think Chase Infinity might be able to um squeak in, you know, with one battle after another. But you and I were talking and we discussed how possibly, you know, it might be too many nominations for one battle after another in this particular, you know, group, the SAG award, the the SAG uh committees. In a way, you and I are expecting uh several nominations at the Oscars, but here I think it should be more tame, and especially when we're considering the you know, the the the battle between one battle after another and sinners, maybe something like sinners, maybe something like one battle after another shouldn't, you know, um shouldn't overshadow sinners. Um so you know, sinners might get three actors nominated. Um is it realistic to think that one battle could get five actors nominated in this particular awards body? I'm not so sure that's that's you know realistic.

SPEAKER_03: 1:48:14

She's also very young in her career. Yeah. She's not like she's not like shouldering the entire movie like um Timothy Chalamet was when he was nominated for Call Me by Your Name. Right. Um, so that might be a factor as well.

SPEAKER_01: 1:48:23

Right. I think someone that we landed on that we felt pretty that we felt pretty confident after going through some of the uh factors was actually Tessa Thompson. Um number one, I think she's an actor that's liked. Number two, it gives them an opportunity to spotlight diversity um in the category, which is something that I think is important to them, rightfully so. Um, number three, head of gobbler is you know an iconic seminal text that I think actors are very familiar with and uh very responsive to. Right. Um, I also think the fact I think the idea of casting Tessa Thompson as Head of Gobbler and also the role reversal, the gender reversal with Nina Haas' character, right, you know, are something that stands to appeal to them. I think that uh a company that's associated to uh this film is Orion. And you and I were talking how it's a relatively, you know, it's been revamped, and and and the revamp has been relatively new.

SPEAKER_02: 1:49:28

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:49:28

But as of late, their films tend to do well here. Think of American fiction that did well here, think of Woman Talking that's still nabbed a nom here, despite not getting an individual acting award. Yeah. So they that they I feel like they tend to watch these films by Orion, which are very sort of uh driven by, you know, uh inclusivity and and and the kinds of films that I think that they respond to. Right. Um and again, yeah, Tessa Thompson has never been recognized yet. And I think that they would be happy to recognize her. Yeah, uh, she is a Globe nominee. Yeah, she's a Golden Globe nominee. Um, and so for some reason we were for these factors, we were we were really sensing that maybe people are sleeping on Tessa Thompson.

SPEAKER_03: 1:50:10

No, I I agree, and it's kind of tough to to to see, you know, it's as you said, Hedda Gobbler is a role that's kind of like I think someone called it the equivalent of you know Hamlet. It's just one of those roles that actors so many actors get the opportunity to play, and you know, they really look forward to making it their own. And uh Tessa Thompson did that. Um, and I think there's just gonna be an immense amount of respect for um uh Tessa Thompson taking on that challenge, but also Nia DaCosta, um the director, sort of you know, bringing her own energy to the piece. And so I would agree, I think that Tessa Thompson stands a really good chance of being nominated here.

SPEAKER_01: 1:50:53

Right. Um, I would certainly I like I like we think that people are sleeping on it, don't sleep on it. I think that if Tessa Thompson gets a nomination here, it's humongous. And I think that with a Gold Bum a Globe nomination and a SAG nomination, you certainly increase the chances that voters watch this film. Right. And if they see the film, I find it very hard for them to resist nominating Tessa Thompson, probably over someone like Chase Infinity for one battle after another, and also nominate Nina Haas, right, who I know that they're eager to spotlight to give a nomination to, um, and who probably got pretty close with Tar.

SPEAKER_04: 1:51:29

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:51:29

Um, so if this happens, it's a huge thing for the header campaign, and uh you could expect there to be even greater things on the other side of that nomination.

SPEAKER_02: 1:51:40

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:51:40

Um, the other person that I really like is, you know, they do tend to favor real life figures, especially in this awards body. Um, like you were saying, Jennifer Hudson and Respect, a plethora of other examples exist. And I think one of the best options this year is Kate Hudson and Songsung Blue, a film that came out just recently over the holidays. You and I got a chance to see it. We weren't huge fans. You know, it's sort of the kind of conservative pick that they respond to sometimes, like something like respect. Um uh it's uh again a real life figure. And in this particular case, it's a it's a real life figure that goes through, you know, a tragedy.

SPEAKER_02: 1:52:21

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:52:21

Um, that I think certain actors are going to respond to as well. Um Kay Hudson hasn't been back here since Almost Famous, but she has been nominated as part of the ensembles for Almost Famous and Nine. Yeah. Uh so she's a known face. Um and I think this is the kind of nomination that we expect to happen at the SAG, but to not repeat at the Oscars. And she would comfortably replace someone like Amanda Seifried, who possibly has a better chance of getting an iron for the Oscar and much more challenging, ambitious work, and more, you know, in my opinion, a stronger piece of work um in the Testament of Ann Lee, but that just will not be the cup of tea of the SAG committee. Right. I I firmly believe. But you can replace her with uh Kate Hudson for Sung Sung Blues. So I'm I'm liking Kate Hudson here as well.

SPEAKER_03: 1:53:06

I mean, I think that's an excellent point. I I do think there's a little bit of the element working against Kate Hudson that there is against, for example, someone like Wendeth Paltrow. You know, they don't work very often. Um and and and that may be an element that keeps voters from wanting to put them up higher. Um, I do like the the real person factor. I at one point thought that that could really work in the favor of someone like Lucy Liu for Rosemead. And I think I still think there's a chance that she surprises here, um, only because not only is it based on a real individual, um, but I also think that sometimes this guild can really respond to like a very surprising turn, an out-of-character turn. So like I do think of um someone like um Sarah Silverman who turned into performance and I smile back, um, at someone like Jennifer Aniston who turned into uh uh the performance from Cake. I there's Lucy Lou, you've never really seen her like this before. Um, there's a lot of this performance that's actually subtitled.

SPEAKER_01: 1:54:08

Um, and so I do think some people might feel that way about Kate Hudson in this film.

SPEAKER_03: 1:54:12

I I I see that's my thing is that there's something about Kate Hudson in this film that she's working out that muscle that makes that that she's working out that element that Kate Hudson brings to all her movies, but it's not a performance that's gonna make you think of Kate Hudson differently. I think this is a performance that's gonna make you think of uh Lucy Lou differently. Um, so at the same time, because it is uh, you know, um being campaigned by vertical, I think it's probably underseen. I think that's what really hurts it. But I do think there's a potential for that to happen. The same thing I, you know, I think June Squibb has an outside shot here because it is directed by an actor, Scar Johansson, but also just the idea that June Squibb is so much older in her career. Um, she's leading this film the same way that she was sort of like a dark horse for Thalma. Um, it may be something that appeals to voters, right? Um, I don't know if she she may very well be the oldest nominee to get a nominee for best actress because remember, this group did not nominate Emmanuel Riva for more. Um, so keep that in mind. Um is there she's a dark horse too. She's certainly a dark horse.

SPEAKER_01: 1:55:16

Is there anyone else um that comes to your mind? When you think about people like Julia Roberts and After the Hunt, I think they're going to dislike that film. So I think it has no chance. Uh Jennifer Lawrence and Die My Love, terrific performance that deserves recognition, but there's no chance they like that film here. Um Sydney Sweeney and Christy, I think that that could have been a possibility earlier on before you know it's box office struggles. Um, really, it's really tough for that last spot, but in all honesty, I think one of the best options that we have, oddly enough, and I was surprised when we were going through the numbers, is Rose Burn. And if I had legs, I'd kick you. Um, again, there should be a number of solo people, solo nominees in this group. By that I mean actors who are nominated or the film's only nomination um at the SAGs. Um, so that's okay. We can have that happen here. And, you know, considering the competition, for me, it was really that last option being a sole nominee in the form of Roseburne Friday I had legs I kick you, or being a solo nominee in the form of Emma Stone for Begonia. I think though it's between those two for that last spot. I would say that Begonia, I think, is has is is handicapped by the fact that Emma Stone was just there. And um it is the more widely seen one, though. Right. That's true. That those are the assets, those are the things going for an Emma Stone bid in this five. Uh, that I do think Bogonia was more seen than if I had Lagside Kik you. I think both films could be challenging depending on the um uh on the voter that's watching them for the SAG committee. But I think that if I had Legs I Kiki would be a more challenging watch than Bugonia. Right. Um, like I said, like you said, uh Bugonia was more seen overall. I think that might that might play into it.

SPEAKER_03: 1:57:03

Um it'd be the third focus features girl, though. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:57:06

That's the other thing. That since we already have Kate Hudson and we already have Jesse Buckley, a third focus features actress, I think is a little bit of a tougher sell, especially when Emma Stone was just there for another Yorgos film. Right. Uh and and they might feel like, you know, we've done the Emma Stone thing for a while. We can, we can, we can chill, especially if it's a Yorgos film.

SPEAKER_04: 1:57:27

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:57:27

Which really leaves Rose Byrne, which again is odd because it's not the kind of film that I see them enjoying or liking. Right. But I think what could possibly um fix that, or what could possibly, you know, uh bridge that is that she's a well-liked actor.

SPEAKER_02: 1:57:44

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:57:44

Um, who's actually never received an individual acting nomination by the SAG. You know, she was nominated, I believe, as part of the ensemble for damages a couple of times. No, I think uh actually I don't think so.

SPEAKER_03: 1:57:55

I think she was nominated as the ensemble for the ensemble of Bridesmaids, right?

SPEAKER_01: 1:57:59

Yeah. Exactly. Um, so it's an opportunity to finally give her a nomination. Again, I do think she's an actor that is valued and and appreciated. There's certainly a stretch here. And you know what, even if it's a film that I think will be hard for voters to really like and some for some of them to even access it, I think there just might be even finish it. Right. I think there just might be enough appreciation uh for her as an actor, and appreciation for the stretch that will kind of allow that nomination to happen. Yeah. In a way it's not very dissimilar, even though again the films are very different, to uh someone like Anna Doramas getting a nomination for Blonde. I mean, I can't imagine a lot of people, and you know, I quite like Blonde. Um, I hope I don't get in trouble for saying that, but um it, you know, it's not like you can imagine a lot of people watching Blonde and thinking, oh wow, you know, this was such an easy watch and it was incredible, and I loved it, and I loved sitting through it. I mean, some people probably thought it was pretty harrowing and I wouldn't want to do it again. Um, but she's still kind of nominated because I feel like you can't watch that movie and not appreciate what the actor is bringing to it and the bravery and the courage and everything that it takes to pull that off. Right. Add to that now that Rose Byrne is probably a well-liked actor for her years in comedy and in the ensembles she's been a part of in the television and film, you know, in a way she's uh very ambidextrous because she can kind of do everything. Right. Um, so I think that that will all play a big factor into getting her into those five, despite it being a film that I don't think they're going to like.

SPEAKER_03: 1:59:39

Which is a big thing because um we had at one point thought that this would be the possibly the ceremony where Rose was destined to be snubbed from. Um I will say this I believe this group found space to nominate Daniel Craig and Queer last year. And so that builds well for her. Yeah. Um, but if she, you know, this is possibly the group that maybe most um intolerant of the idea that the camera is on her, you know, on a close-up for the majority of the film with very little other interaction in a two-shot or anything like that. This would be the place where they may frown upon that. But again, it seems like the the actor could just be well respected enough to sort of muscle her way in, especially with this kind of competition.

SPEAKER_01: 2:00:20

Right. And I think that if it does happen, that I think that's a huge thing for Rose Byrne. I think that that kind of solidifies her Academy Award nomination, if I'm being honest. In the same way that I think the BAF the the SAG nomination for Anna Dharma solidified it for me in my opinion. So if that does happen, I think it's a huge thing for her campaign and for her chances of getting nominated. All right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:00:42

So we're saying Buckley, Byrne, Rheinsville, Tessa Thompson, and Kate Hudson. Yes. So let's look at Best Actor now. I think Best Actor has the benefit of being like a tighter group, right? That's um for c uh that we're considering um it seems to me like uh both leads from what should be the favorite film should get in. So Michael B. Jordan for Sinners, uh Leonardo DiCaprio for one bad after another especially because he got left off for Killers of the Flower Moon. Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon makes a lot of sense right um he's writing a a a high right now um uh it it's also a real person yeah right it's also Lawrence Hart which I think a lot of actors are going to be familiar with um it would be his uh fourth nomination that and that that that's that helps um it would actually only be Michael's first individual nomination he got iron for the example of Black Panther but I think that's even more reason why they want to nominate Michael B. Jordan um and then we have Timothy Chalamet who was last year's winner right for Complete Unknown. We feel comfortable with him getting in it'd be his fourth nomination. He's been on ensembles that have been nominated here before um it's kind of a late breaking movie. We're leaving it out of ensemble but it's also sort of as we said you know that kind of um anchor to the entire movie the performance is the anchor to the entire movie so we definitely feel like he'll show up here.

SPEAKER_01: 2:02:04

That leaves one spot open and a lot of people feel like um maybe that spot should go to Wagner Mora but we're keeping him off right well well you know as we said foreign performances don't tend to do well in this awards body and since we're already nominating Renata and Stellanskard you know which are foreign performances I think that we should err on the side of caution and think consider that no other foreign performance will get in Wagner Mora reminds me a lot of um Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory when he didn't get a nomination here either. Even last year when Fernando Torres didn't get a nomination here being in a foreign language film.

SPEAKER_03: 2:02:43

You know I was gonna just to just to you know piggyback on the point you're making historically speaking SAG has been kinder to foreign language female performances than they have to male performance. So Banderas did not get in here Javier Bardem didn't get in here for beautiful and so they've been a little bit more welcoming of for example Marion Coteard for Love You and Rhodes, Marion Cotter for Rust and Bones. So yeah to your point.

SPEAKER_01: 2:03:06

Yeah exactly and so I would expect Wagner Morrow to be an easy miss here. Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:03:12

It's good it's also important to say that I think foreign films in general so far we haven't seen two foreign performances from two different movies making it make it in at the same time right so when last year it was just Carl Sofiakka for the same Perez and know I'm still here for example um but for uh for example when they nominated um uh Maren Cotigar for Levy and Rose they did not nominate another foreign language performance that year right um the same thing uh for when they nominated Penelope Cruz and Volver and so that doesn't tend to happen.

SPEAKER_01: 2:03:47

Right 100% exactly and so if we take out Wagner Mora we could expect there's a couple of other options of which I think the best option is Joel Ledgerton for Train Dreams. I think he's clearly in the hunt for a best actor nomination uh we've expressed how we think Train Dreams is a film that's quite liked and quite towards the top of the list of uh what uh Oscar voters are are going to respond to um especially as a as an as an American independent film he's never been nominated at SAG or I don't I don't know if he's been on part of any ensemble I don't think he has um and I think this is the opportunity for him to get in but I would fur I would place him firmly in fifth because if you've seen the film there isn't it's not a dialogue heavy performance there's a lot of silences um a lot of acting you know sort of internally um uh which is is is a a difficult task in and of itself for an actor and that I think actors might appreciate but it also might not might lack that that loudness that I think some of them you know are more attracted to so if he were not to make it some people to consider is Jesse Plemens for Bogonia um they've never nominated Jesse Plemens so they're kind of late there. Maybe they might want to sort of make you know uh correct that however I don't think Bogonia is the movie to do that. Um I firmly see that being like an Emma Stone solo nomination in this awards body if it happens at all. George Clooney, Jay Kelly makes sense but uh other films have you know more momentum right now Light Train Dreams Jeremy Ann White could surprise possibly with Deliver Me From Nowhere but you know he's been awarded on the TV side of things and that film has been sort of under the radar as well.

SPEAKER_03: 2:05:31

Dwayne Johnson is someone that some people are you know landing on interestingly enough I mean it's I think maybe because of the whole safty thing possibly um he's also a real life character and maybe I'm real life a figure and maybe they're gonna want to include someone that's you know based on a real life figure that's a little bit closer to reality than Marty Mauser. But we have Ethan Hawk too we do have Ethan Hawke I mean I think it's a little bit of a stretch. I don't know if Dwayne Johnson just has the filmography to convince the actors guild to nominate him there.

SPEAKER_01: 2:06:06

Or that the film was as popular you know to to to sort of overcome that.

SPEAKER_03: 2:06:10

Right. I think uh Jeremy Allen White as we said is a a little bit of a a dark horse what about Russell Crowe Will Arnett Russell I think has done well here in the past but I worry about Nuremberg not having shown up anywhere else has been really quiet.

SPEAKER_01: 2:06:25

Will Arnett is the interesting because he kind of gives the Sarah Silverman vibe exactly a comedic comedic actor that I'm not used to seeing in this light pulling it off lovely.

SPEAKER_03: 2:06:36

And sort of also maybe reflecting on his own life and career and artistry and bringing that into the screen directed by an actor Bradley Cooper um maybe that could be something that really helps. Again I'm Will Arnett uh like Rose Byrne has worked in film has worked as a supporting actor um is the lead right now he doesn't get very many chances to be the lead has worked in TV has been um you know recognized by his peers before certainly a dark horse there um I think I think the reason the big reason why I think it's smart to lean on Joe Igerton is because in general Netflix tends to get in for one of the lead races at least if not both and so right now we have it on the outs for best supporter for best actors excuse me so it would not make a lot of sense to have it miss actor and actress. I remember some a year like 2022 when they really scrambled to campaign all quiet on the Western front because Glass Onion never took off they were still able to get as you said Anadon for Blonde.

SPEAKER_01: 2:07:36

The question is if they would feel more comfortable with the actor friendly you know part is George Clooney and Jay Kelly exactly as opposed to the more stoic you know brooding you know kind of surrounded by silence's internal kind of performance that is Joel Edgerton's and train dreams.

SPEAKER_03: 2:07:54

And we're sort of pegging right now that Joel is a little bit more in the hunt for that nomination. And if Joel were to miss a nomination here I think it'd be pretty significant. The same thing where yeah I could see them saying I'd rather nominate George Clooney for playing an actor but as we said maybe they don't want to nominate George Clooney for playing a version of George Clooney. That's that can happen as well. But I do think we should lean on the side of a Netflix guy for that first spot.

SPEAKER_01: 2:08:19

Right. So we're don't so we're saying Michael B. Jordan for Sinners Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon Timothy Chalamet for Marty Supreme Leo DiCaprio for once one battle after another and Joel Edgerton for Drain Dreams. Yeah that's what it I think that's what makes the most sense right now. So what if we talk about supporting actress then well for supporting actress again I think of the four acting categories it's one of the more if not the most tumultuous one it's a very unsettled race and I think that uh the sag will go a long way in revealing things to us specifically about this category. Um I think Wumi Mosaku stands to do well here and get a sag nomination despite having missed at the Golden Globes. Right. I think it's the kind of performance that they will respond to I think Cinners is going to do he's gonna do more than just get an ensemble nomination. She's arguably the best you know performance in the film um I just feel really good about that one. Right. I think Al Fanny stands to do well here as well for sentimental value. I think it helps that she's sort of the English language performance in the film. Another actress and she's playing another actor I think they like her um uh she's already been nominated for the great um and uh she was passed over last year also she was passed over last year for a complete unknown I would expect her to make this list and to not Enga Ipsotyr Lilius to not make this list to miss out right but I still like sentimental value showing up in the supporting category especially if you can spotlight an an English speaking right uh performance.

SPEAKER_03: 2:09:53

I mean we've always talked about this idea again where like if you want most of the times if you want to end up at the Oscars a film gets where a film gets two nominations in the same acting category usually the sag is the ultimate test of that. And so Al and Inca both got in for a golden globe you know statistically speaking Al and Inga should both get in to a sag if they hope to both get in at the Oscars.

SPEAKER_01: 2:10:19

I mean that's been the statistic yeah um again it's not foolproof like I it could still happen if it doesn't but it's a good indication that you know if you get that double nomination in the category like uh Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson uh in three billboards outside of Ebbie Missouri then you stand you you're gonna double up possible more more than likely when it comes to the Oscars when you don't do it like Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo in poor things Willem Dafoe got the nomination at the Sag or Mark Ruffalo didn't again they both didn't right at the at the uh Oscars.

SPEAKER_03: 2:10:52

And this sort of um and this this sort of killed Sonagome's last year from the barrage remember yeah that she wasn't able to double up here.

SPEAKER_01: 2:11:01

Um so because we're talking about a foreign language film and because their tendency is not to spot out a lot of foreign language performances, I think we might be able to get away with um Al Fanning getting in here and not having both Al Fanning and Inga and still being able to re and still being able to get both of them in at the Oscars. It could happen again it's a little bit of uncharted territory with you know the amount of you know foreign language films in contention this year. Right. But also don't be surprised that Al Fanning does get the nomination here and is the only one who gets it here and is also the only one that gets it at the Oscars because she's the more known of the two and some people might say she has more credits than the two of the of the two as well as well.

SPEAKER_03: 2:11:44

So all that yeah Dakota sister's also been nominated in this category for I am Sam. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:11:49

Forget that right uh so we have always felt that Inga was in danger of missing uh ultimately at the Oscars uh and that if they had to pick they would pick El Fanny because she's just more known um uh we'll see if that if we're right there um the other person that I expect to do well here is Amy Madigan for weapons I think she's a veteran actor this would interestingly enough be her first sag nomination um which I think is a big deal right I think that you know if they had the opportunity to correct that and have her be a SAG nominee they would this is the perfect excuse right um and um I think she stands to prove a lot of naysayers wrong throughout this award circuit uh award season and um I I like the fact that again there's a you know it's a film from uh uh an actor turned director you know that usually is a film that you know tends to get spotlighted somewhere um we have an ensemble I certainly think it'll happen here in supporting actress um and yeah I think that'll be Amy Madigan's for Amy Madigan for weapons we'll we'll get in here there was also some doubt as to whether Demi Moore could get in or not for the substance and she still managed to get in.

SPEAKER_03: 2:12:59

So even without that weapons ensemble nomination you still expect to see Amy Madigan here. And again a lot of her early success when she got that Academy War nomination predates the SAG right because the sag doesn't start till nine the mid-90s and Amy Madigan's having a lot of success in the mid 80s um late 80s you know field of dreams in 89 things like that and so she didn't really have an opportunity to get a spotlight here.

SPEAKER_01: 2:13:23

Right. And then I think those last two uh slots are the toughest ones um I personally think that Tana Taylor is just too showy in one battle after another to not get nominated um uh in this in this awards body I expect her to be there um isn't there a possibility that her character again is a bit too prickly for them and they decide that they might just not want to nominate that character it's a it's possible I wouldn't be absolutely shocked if she missed but I fully expect her to not miss.

SPEAKER_03: 2:13:55

I wonder if the number of credits is also working against her here. Yeah not unlike Inga right limited credits at this point.

SPEAKER_01: 2:14:01

Yes 100% I think that's something that um is a handicap she has to deal with um could they nominate Emily Blonde for the smashing machine she did get that glove nomination it really helps that she's the one of the few maybe maybe the only real life figure that you can nominate in this category and like we said both the SAG and the Oscars alike to spotlight real life figures in their acting categories and each of their acting categories but her getting in without Dwayne Johnson is kind of weird even though again they're not they're not averse to doing that. Remember when uh Claire Foy got in you know right for first man when the actual first man didn't get in Glenn close for Wake Up Dead man I feel at you know to the detriment of Glenn close I feel like Amy Madigan has kind of stolen the thunder a little bit because she occupies the same space that Glenn close would in being a you know an older actor in their 70s who's yet to win an Oscar you know um having you know the industry rally around you in a way she's kind of usurping all of that tension. At the same time and they also are not uh known for uh spotlighting knives out forms of any capacity.

SPEAKER_03: 2:15:13

The curse of the knives out movie may that may be too much for her to defeat um even if you know we've talked about in the past the idea that Netflix traditionally does really well in the supporting actress category they still couldn't get Janelle Monet in for Glen Sunyan. And so there is a little bit of a a knives out curse. And then the other thing is that if you look at Glenn Close's career you'll often see that she doesn't have as many sag nominations.

SPEAKER_01: 2:15:35

Again a lot of her early success in the 80s predates the arrival of the SAGs in fact the sags kick off in the mid 90s when she sort of has moved to television right but me as of beforehand beforehand the sags were like they would spotlight one one actor um you know with a ceremony but when they started giving out nominations multiple nominations per per category different categories that was in the 90s.

SPEAKER_03: 2:16:00

Right uh so I mean she doesn't really get in for nominations at the SAG until later in her career including you know the wife and Hill Billy LG but most of the time when she got a sag nomination on the film side she was a Golden Globe nominee already and she failed to do that for um Wake up man. So that's going against her as well.

SPEAKER_01: 2:16:19

I also think that the Marty Supreme actors are at a disadvantage here like I we don't think the Modern Supreme is going to be a big uh uh sag movie per se and even if it is I don't think it's beyond Timothy Chalamet. I don't think Odessa's that known I'm not sure she has enough here to stand out. She's Pamela Adon's daughter she that helps okay yeah you're right that helps um I think Gweneth Paltrow's break from from acting and return I think it might be a little bit too soon after her break. Although she plays an actor even though she plays an actor but we have some of that in Al Fanning already um there's just not enough meat I think to either of those roles for them to like we like we're yeah like we said at the beginning it you know the film is very much you know the twister that is Marty Supreme everyone else is just background. Yeah um so I don't I don't expect either Marty Supreme actresses to get in. Um Haley Steinfield is an interesting one could they possibly give instead of a double nomination sentimental value give a double nomination to sinners I mean she is a past sag nominee I think that's it could hurt yeah that could hurt she's also hasn't been known a lot for her acting work since True Grid in a weird way you know she hasn't had a lot of standout material since then I wonder if um Tessa Thompson getting in could possibly squeeze in someone like Nina Haas for HETA and they get in as a pair. But I think that she has a I think Nina Haas's superpower is her foreign appeal. Yeah her international yeah I think that's going to be missing a little bit for this uh these uh SAG committees guilt yeah right um but like I said all that Nina Haas needs to get nominated is for Tessa Thompson to get a single nomination because she can she commands that much respect I think we talked about the ear day like Kate Blanchett did a special screen screening and so uh Jennifer Lopez would make perfect sense here being in a period piece being in a musical uh but that film um has struggled ever since it's uh you know underperformance at the box office and then that leaves really two other people that leaves Ariana Grande for Wicked uh which arguably is a co-lead um she was just nominated last year it would be back to back like we said the SAGs aren't super fond of nominating too many actors back to back and we've already got one in uh Timothy Chalamet from Marty Supreme what are the odds that they would nominate Ariana Grande again but snub Cynthia Revo we also did some research right because we have because we feel confident about Timothy Chalamet getting in for Best Actor and because Cynthia is contending an actress and Harry Yann and supporting actors we went and we saw how often you know three actors can repeat back to back in the same category.

SPEAKER_03: 2:19:01

And we didn't come up to very like without a category shift without a category shift. So for example in 2009 Jeff Bridges was nominated for Crazy Heart, Colin Firth for a single man and Jeremy Renner for the Hurt Locker following year all the as lead actors the following year all three got nominated again right at the size but Jeremy Renner moved down to supporting actor for the town right meanwhile Colin Firth was still in main actor lead actor for the King speech and Jeff Bridges a lead actor for Drew Grit so three can repeat but three without a category shift add to that the back to back nominations for uh for Cynthia Revo and Ariana Grande for the same role that's a little bit of a you know uh something that hasn't happened you know yeah I think that it's also it's actually never happened also that um that there that there have been you know three repeats and and and and no category shift right and so let alone for for the same for the same role. Like I remember when Meryl Streep and Penny Cruz were both nominees. Yeah, nominees, and one of them was a winner in 2008, right? For Doubt and Vicky Cristino Barcelona, and the very next year they were nominees again. Meryl Street for Julia and Julia, Penelope Cruz for nine, but those were for different movies. So I think that you know, just the nature of the fact that both uh Cynthia and Ariana are playing the same character, that's that's another element that's going to hurt them, not help them, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_01: 2:20:27

Right. Um, there's always the possibility though that you know there aren't three repeats, and I guess Ariana Grande gets in without Cynthia Revo, right? Like in the uh Critics Choice. Right. Um, you know, I just wonder how likely that is to for the sag to overlook Cynthia, but to not overlook Ariana, who's not really an actor or is just starting her acting career. If they're gonna overlook Cynthia, who's more of an established actor, why overlook her but not overlook Ariana Grande, who's more of a musician.

SPEAKER_03: 2:20:58

Maybe they may they maybe sound weird to me. It does sound weird, but maybe they may feel that oh well, Cynthia Rebel has two nominations already because we did nominate her for Harriet at the same time. You know, the idea of giving Ariana two and two back to back to the same character could also be, you know, could feel like too much. Exactly. Like I imagine one reason why they would want to keep off Cynthia is because, oh, well, we already nominated her for playing Alphaba and for playing Harriet Tubman.

SPEAKER_04: 2:21:22

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:21:23

Versus for Ariana, it would be I'm playing, I'm nominating her for playing Glinda and Glinda. Right. You know what I mean? Right, right. Same thing.

SPEAKER_01: 2:21:28

Right. Um, so I think we're opting right now for people to be surprised and for before it to be a complete wicked for good shutout at the SAGs after being a high of getting four. Right. Um maybe stunt ensemble, maybe. Oh, maybe stunt, yeah. Um, we'll see if that if we're right there, you know, um, that'll be a big decrease. Right. Right. But it makes sense, you know, because again, you don't often see um uh sequels repeat, you know, at the sag. And when they have like again, like the Lord of the Rings trilogy, those were all critically acclaimed uh films that were nominated for best picture. I mean, I still think there's a scenario where they go. Or rather, they were nominated for best picture and they were obviously top five best pictures.

SPEAKER_03: 2:22:13

Right. I think there's still a scenario where you can maybe see Wicked get only one nomination, again, not counting stunt, but one nomination for ensemble, and that maybe could be enough to celebrate the film. And it's sort of like, you know, that's the one film of the five that's probably on the chopping block when it comes down to the best picture top ten.

SPEAKER_01: 2:22:31

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:22:32

There's still a chance of that, but right now I think we're leaning towards a shutout.

SPEAKER_01: 2:22:35

Right. And so then that leaves two contenders getting in, or or rather, that leaves Tayana Taylor, which I had said earlier, and Regina Hall getting in alongside her in one battle after another. I think you and I have been really high on Regina Hall making it to the end for one battle after another, because of the love for the film and the respect and the critical, the critical admiration, because she's of the two supporting actresses, or really of the three, if you count Chase Infinity, she has the she's are indisputably the one who has more of a career, a filmic career. Um and I just don't know that in this field of supporting actresses, the academy voters are gonna end up, you know, turning down an opportunity to spotlight her. Right. Again, she is very short, you know, it's very brief in the film, but she is memorable. Right. And um, she has emotional scenes, she uh her performance is really quietly uh beautiful, um, graceful, um and out of character somewhat. Right, you know, I think a lot of people will be surprised by her depth as an actor. We won't, but some people will. Um, and I just don't know that I see again long game Oscar voters turning that opportunity down if there's space. Remember, she was a former Oscars host at one point.

SPEAKER_03: 2:23:49

That that worked, that helped Ariana Ariana DeBose. Right. Um uh I I do think um that she could show up here. I think last year brevity paid played a factor as to why Isabella Rossellini did not show up here. Yeah, so we can't dismiss that entirely, right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:24:07

But again, because we think so strongly that she'll show up at the end of the finish line, we feel like this would be the moment for her to show how much of a threat she is to get into that final five. And she'd get in with Tana Taylor, and like we said earlier when we were talking about the SAGs, if there's gonna be a double up, it would be good to see that double up happen at the sags. It gives us more, you know, gives us more ammunition for it to happen at the at the Oscars. So if they both get in at the SAG, it's over, in my opinion. They're both getting into the Academy Awards.

SPEAKER_03: 2:24:42

There is a part of me that's a little bit afraid that what the actor committee is gonna end up doing and what the what the the guild award is gonna end up doing for the actors is that they might sideline both Chase Infinity and Tayana Taylor as the actors with a less established career and instead nominate Regina Hall as possibly the only female non-ensemble to get an individual nomination, in large part because Regina Hall has been doing this for upwards of 20 years in in different capacities throughout the industry, right? Um, so I do still think there's a chance of that. But seeing the competition, I feel like if there's a moment where they're gonna double, this would be the first one where we see it.

SPEAKER_01: 2:25:22

Right. I 100% agree. If they don't double, I think it's not a good sign for Regina Hall to make it at the very end. Um, I hope that's not true. I'd love to see her in the final five. Um, but I would think it's a big handicap to those aspirations if she doesn't get this SAG nomination. Again, I think there's space at this moment for her to sort of seize the moment.

SPEAKER_04: 2:25:42

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:25:42

We'll see if it happens. Yeah. So we're predicting Wumi Masaku, Al Fanning, Amy Madigan, Regina Hall, and Teyana Taylor.

SPEAKER_03: 2:25:48

Exactly.

SPEAKER_01: 2:25:49

And um jumping to Oh, I just want to say one last thing. In the event that Teyana Taylor gets snubbed here and instead only Regina Hall gets nominated, I would add that to me would be a positive sign that Regina Hall, that that Tayana and Regina will both get nominated. Right. Because I just don't see Tiana getting snubbed. Right. You know, because it's just too showy of a performance, too memorable. Yeah. Um, so even if that happens, I still think that we'll end up seeing a double up.

SPEAKER_03: 2:26:15

Yeah. Um, I agree. I agree with that. Where if Regina showed up by herself, I would still expect them both to show up at the end.

SPEAKER_04: 2:26:21

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 2:26:21

Um, I think jumping to supporting actor, then again, this is sort of, I think, calcified into a few contenders. Um, I think first on our list is we feel comfortable about Paul Meskell, right, for a hamlet, in large part because he has yet to be nominated for any kind of um SAG award. Um, so no ensemble mentions, unlike Jesse Buckley, who was there for Women Talking. Um, he has an Austrian mention for Afterstun, but they did not nominate him here. So you and I feel really confident about that that he'll get in with Jesse Buckley at minimum, um, no matter what happens with the ensemble. Stannard Skarsgard is another foreign language performance that we're thinking is gonna get in. Again, um Renato Ryan, so he should get in there as a pair, the ensemble we're predicting to get in, but also it's a role that appeals to the industry. Um then we still have Vinicius El Toro, right? One at one better after another. Um, this uh he's been nominated for 21 grams, traffic. Um, he even has a win for traffic, oddly enough. In lead. In lead. He won the actor in lead. Um after that, I think you and I feel really good about Delroy Lindo. Yes, right? Yes. Do you think?

SPEAKER_01: 2:27:26

I 100%. I think Delroy Lindo is an actor in his 70s, an older actor, an actor who's been around for a very long time, never really got in his flowers. He was snubbed from this uh awards body for the five bloods, even though that was still nominated for ensemble. Um, and I think this is an opportunity for them to spotlight him specifically individually. And considering what a favorite Sinners is, I don't see them passing that opportunity up. Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:27:51

I mean, he's still gonna be nine for the ensemble of Sinners, but at this point, he's been nominated as part of the the ensemble for the five bloods, the cider house rules, get shorty. So if you think there's ever going to be a moment to spotlight him individually, at least on the film side, this would be the moment. Yeah, right. Um, so we're gonna be.

SPEAKER_01: 2:28:08

And I think that this would do wonders for his Oscar campaign.

SPEAKER_03: 2:28:10

Yeah, absolutely. I think so we're we're seeing Delroy getting in there. And then for the fifth spot, the fifth and final spot, a lot of people want to talk about Sean Penn for one bat after another, and he has felt pretty safe throughout this entire time. He has um four nominations, um, including two wins, Mystic River, and Milk. Um, but we're sort of maybe a little bit iffy on that, right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:28:33

Right. I think that the Academy, I mean, pause, uh, apologize. The SAG committees might feel a little bit uh they they might feel that the character is too disliked too too unlikable and maybe too, you know, disgusting, maybe just too much of an antagonist, you know, too much uh, you know, just uh, you know, I I hesitate to use the word evil because I think villainous villainous, exactly, even though villains do well in general on awards races, I think there's a there's a limit. And I think that Sean Penn in One Bow After Another might reach that limit a little bit for them. Um, also as an actor who's been awarded already several times. Um I just think that I see something similar happen here, the way it happened for Guy Pierce for their brutalist. Oh, yeah, when he got snubbed and people were surprised. But you know, if it's a villain that they don't that they feel really antagonistic towards, you know, I think there's less of a likelihood that they'll feel compelled to include them. Um, I think it'll be a different story at the Oscars, right? But certainly at the SAG, don't be surprised if we see someone like Sean Penn for that for that character miss out in favor of what probably is a more of a fan favorite or you know, uh uh yeah, a personal favorite for a lot of people, and that's Jacob Alordy and Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_03: 2:30:03

Right. And so I think right now we're leaning toward Jacob getting that final spot. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:30:09

And I like Frankenstein showing up somewhere, right? You know, in a way, a similar way that Kate Blanchett's, you know, Nightmare Alley still showed up for Gate Blanchett, you know, Shape of Water still showed up several, you know, for acting nominations. So I think they they're not they're prone to embracing a Guillermo film. And I think again, this is the kind of awards body that you know, uh someone like Jacob Alordy and his rising star sort of status, they'd show up here.

SPEAKER_03: 2:30:34

I I do think it's interesting that we're gonna have a list that includes both Jacob Alordy and Paul Maskell. I I don't know if that's gonna get much traction at the Oscars, but we are leaning towards Jacob Alordy. Other care other contenders that we did consider. I thought Adam Sandler's a real big dark horse here for J. Kelly.

SPEAKER_04: 2:30:49

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:30:50

Especially if George Clooney gets in. I mean, right now we have George Clooney on the outs for Joe Edgerton, but Jake Kelly as a movie, again, that's about actors and about the industry, that could easily appeal to them. I think the other thing about Adam is that he got that nomination recently for Hustle, another Netflix movie in lead. Um, but I do think there's something about the character that would appeal to the SAG committee. So you have to really be careful with him.

SPEAKER_01: 2:31:13

Right. Um, and then 100%. I think Adam Sandler is like seventh. Right, you know, and um, if he hadn't gotten that nomination for hustle, I think he would have done here.

SPEAKER_03: 2:31:22

Um, and again, it may get close. I think you know, we've talked about Andrew Scott for Blue Moon um with Ethan Haw. That's not you know out of the question. Josh O'Connor, especially if Glenn Close gets in, but again, the curve the curse of the knives out movie. Jacoby Jupe um is someone we haven't talked about, but he is not supposedly included in the ensemble for Hamnet.

SPEAKER_01: 2:31:44

Interesting.

SPEAKER_03: 2:31:44

If if word got around that he is not in there, I could see them going for Jacobi Jube.

SPEAKER_01: 2:31:50

I mean, and again, the sag is very welcoming towards children, towards young actors, yeah. More than the Academy Awards are. So if that were to happen, don't be I wouldn't be shocked.

SPEAKER_03: 2:32:00

I would not be shocked if maybe the double up there is the two Hamnet guys, or um maybe Paul Mesko gets sidelined for Jacobi, especially since Paul Mesko sort of flirts with the idea, well, is he leaders he'supporting? They may feel that way. Right. Um okay, and so our final list then would be um Jacob Ballorty for Frankenstein, Deborah Lindo for Sinners, Benicio Toro and Bad After Another, Sanscar's Garden Sentimental Value, and Paul Meskell for Hamnet. Um, and so that I think um that's everything for the sag. Um, why don't we jump really quick and discuss who we're thinking is gonna walk out with the winds for the Golden Globes? All right, so why don't we start with um motion picture drama? Nominees were Frankenstein, Hamnet, it was just an accident, the secret agent, sentimental value, and sinners. A lot of foreign films here, but who do you think is the favorite?

SPEAKER_01: 2:32:47

I think it's really between Hamnet and Sinners. Um, but I think that the Golden Globes might be prone to spreading the wealth a little bit. And I feel like Hamnet, I think is the one that I'm leaning towards to win this award um over Sinners. I think that's gonna be a surprise to some people because I think Sinners is the favorite. I actually I think we think that Sinners is gonna uh win uh box office achievement um and that they'll leave uh Hamlet to be the drama winner.

SPEAKER_03: 2:33:18

Sort of like in the vein of when Barbie won box office achievement, I believe. Right, right. And they gave um comedy film to poor things. Right. Um all right, so why don't we move then to motion picture, music, or comedy? Again, a lot of foreign films here. The nominees were uh Blue Moon, Bugonia, Marty Supreme, No Other Choice, Nouvel Vogue, one battle after another. Richard Link Later got in here twice, surprisingly. What are you thinking?

SPEAKER_01: 2:33:41

I think this is the easiest one. It'll be one battle after another.

SPEAKER_03: 2:33:44

And it's not even gonna come. Full stop. Full stop. Okay. Um uh if we go now to actor in a drama, this is kind of a fun category. Um, the nominees were Joe Edgerton in Train Dreams, Oscar Isaac, surprisingly, for Frankenstein, Dwayne Johnson made a comeback for the smashing machine, Michael B. Jordan got in for Sinners, Wagner Mora for the Secret Agent, and Jeremy Allen White, who's a double nominee, got in for Springsteen Deliver Me from Nowhere.

SPEAKER_01: 2:34:08

Right. I think this is another easy one. I think that this will be Wagner Mora winning for the Secret Agent along the lines of how Fernando Torres prevailed um last year. You and I predicted that correctly, even though I think most people weren't predicting that.

SPEAKER_03: 2:34:21

Um it would make sense, right? Because I'm still here wasn't even a best picture nominee when this gap is.

SPEAKER_01: 2:34:26

The secret agent is yeah, it has three nominations um best picture, best actor, best foreign film. And I actually think this is the area where they can most spotlight the secret agent. Uh so count on that being the winner.

SPEAKER_03: 2:34:39

I mean, I will also say um keep an eye out for Michael B. Jordan because I do think that Sinners is potentially it will lose to Hamnet, but as you said, it's it should be the runner-up to Hamnet in Best Picture Drama. So it is probably the favorite dramatic picture of these, possibly more than secret agent. I don't know, maybe right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:35:00

Um But like I said, this is the one area where you can spotlight the secret agent. And I don't I don't expect I expect them to pass that up.

SPEAKER_03: 2:35:06

Although it's been doing really well in foreign film categories just throughout the season. So that's another thing to keep in mind. Um so if we jump to Best Actor, Motion Picture, Music Or Comedy, Timothy Chalamet from R Supreme, and he has a I think maybe this is his fifth nomination, maybe I think by now. George Clooney's in there for Jay Kelly, Leonardo DiCaprio, one battle after another, Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon, Lee Byungun for No Other Choice, um, which I believe is the first um Asian actor in a foreign language film to get listed here, which is great. Jesse Plemens for Bugonia. What do you think is gonna go?

SPEAKER_01: 2:35:36

This is actually the toughest one, or one of the tougher categories, because I think it's gonna be a fight between Timothy Chalamet and Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon, and I think we might be seeing that final show done at the Oscars as well. We'll see. We'll see. Um, you know, Timothy Chalamet, interestingly enough, has more nominations than uh Ethan Hawk does at this point, yeah. At this point, um, possibly they are more fans of Chalamet than Hawk. Um Marty Supreme kind of underperformed here.

SPEAKER_03: 2:36:07

Three nominations, right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:36:08

I only got three nominations and missed score and missed director, supporting actors, any any supporting actors. Um and in a way, I think Blue Moon overperformed because it got an eye for Best Picture. That's right, that is true. I think I right, right. But I expect the recency bias, slash the fact that he's been nominated so many times to favor Timothy Chalamet in this race.

SPEAKER_03: 2:36:30

He does have a bunch of nominations, no wins yet. They didn't give him the win for a complete unknown, favoring the winner, uh Adrian Brody, right, for the Brutus who ended up winning the Oscar. Could they maybe feel pressured to say this is finally the time to give him the win? At the same time, we were just talking about I'm still here. Does Sony Picture Classics have some point Sony Picture Classics magic here to get Ethan Hawke the win? Obviously, they had enough magic to get Blue Moon.

SPEAKER_01: 2:36:56

Also, Fernanda Torres last year.

SPEAKER_03: 2:36:57

Exactly, that's what I'm saying. Can can we see the same Sony Pictures magic that carried Fernando Torres um have Ethan Hawke edge out Timothy Chalamet? We already saw a little bit of that of that Sony Classics magic because Blue Moon was not supposed to get into Best Picture. Yeah, so do you think that that could happen? Could that be a factor? Yes, 100%.

SPEAKER_01: 2:37:17

100%. Um, but I think there's a showiness, there's a showiness to both performances, but there's I don't know. I think I I I I see the globes as liking the the sort of dynamism of Marty Supreme a little bit more than the sort of staginess of Blue Moon, right? You know, personally, right? So I think I think Timothy Shah may prevails, but I would I would not be s shocked in the slightest if Blue Moon wins.

SPEAKER_03: 2:37:41

If Ethan Hawk pulls it out. Okay, well, um, actress in a motion picture drama, Jesse Buckley and Hamnet, Jennifer Lawrence and Die My Love, whom they love, Renata Rhines in Sentimental Value, Julia Roberts for After the Hunt, Tessa Thompson got in for Hatta, and Ava Victor was a really welcome surprise for sorry baby. Um, who do you think is gonna be the winner here? Is it is it even gonna be a challenge?

SPEAKER_01: 2:38:01

Absolutely not. I think this is absolutely Jesse Buckley's To Lose. She will win this category, she will win the Oscar, that's it. Um, it's an incredible performance, and this is the kind of performance that wins that that that sweeps. Um so expect her to be the bona fide winner, yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 2:38:20

And you probably think it probably helps the fact that she's in the best picture drama you're predicting is. 100%.

SPEAKER_01: 2:38:26

I think we've I think we've been seeing a trend. Correct me if I'm wrong, those who are listening, but I think we've been seeing a trend that the lead winners, at least one of them, you know, should be their film should be winning the top prize. Right. And it would make sense, yeah. Yeah, it would make sense, especially if, for example, Marty Supreme, if if one battle after another does win Best Picture, as I feel very confident, you know, Marty Supreme win uh for best actor doesn't correlate there, but uh Hamnet win for best actors does. Right. Exactly with Hamnet winning Best Picture Drama.

SPEAKER_03: 2:39:00

Same thing. I mean, I mean, well, Wagner Mora winning actor drama could possibly, but you know, you in general Hamnet performed a little bit better than the Secret Agent. Yeah. Um, okay, well, then this is kind of an interesting category, which is actress in a motion picture musical or comedy, Rose Byrne got in for If I Had Legs That Kick You, the film's only nomination. Cynthia Reeball was able to get back-to-back nominations for Wicked for Good. This is, I think, her third nomination here at the Golden Globes, if I'm correct, um, at least on the film side. Um, Kate Hudson got in for Songsung Blue, Tiss Infinity for one battle after another, Amanda Seyfried for the Testament of Ann Lee, Emma Stone for Bugonia, a lot of previous winners here, including Emma Stone, Amanda Seyfried won for the dropout. Um, I even think Kate Hudson was the winner here for Almost Famous. Um, not too many uh individuals who don't have a win here. Rose Byrne, Cynthia Revel, uh, some of the few.

SPEAKER_01: 2:39:53

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 2:39:54

What do you think?

SPEAKER_01: 2:39:54

And so I think this is one of the more interesting categories. I think it's really be down be it's really down to two. Actresses. I think that's Rose Byrne and Amanda Safried. And both of them, interestingly enough, are in challenging films that are not going to be a lot of people's cup of tea. And certainly I think they're going to have a hard time battling for that Oscar nomination. But I think that the Golden Globe voters are very eager to get someone like Rose Byrne on their stage to accept an award. I think it helps that she's never won a Golden Globe. Meanwhile, uh Amanda Seyfried has already for the dropout. Exactly. Amanda Seyfried is a double nominee, so you always have to be careful for those double nominees because usually, more often than not, they end up winning something.

SPEAKER_03: 2:40:41

Yeah. We check that out. That most of the times in the year where the Golden Globes have a nominee, an actor who's double nominated, they'll end up winning one. And in a year where they have multiple, as we do this year, we have Jeremy Allen White, we have Jacob Ballorty, we have Amanda Seifried, one of them should pick up a win somewhere.

SPEAKER_01: 2:41:01

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:41:01

Right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:41:01

Right, exactly. Um, and so I think that that that helps Amanda, but I think that again, they want to see Rose on that stage. She's a very, you know, as we've been saying, uh appreciated actor. They're going to appreciate the stretch. And I think a win here, along with a very possible sag nomination. Um, this could be the week that a Rose Byrne nomination for if I had legs a kick you uh uh you know becomes solidified.

SPEAKER_03: 2:41:26

I mean, I think it's also interesting, right? I mean, there's been a lot of talk about Kate Hudson as of late. She won for Almost Famous. She's this is her third nomination because they did nominate her for music, which was a huge ass flop. Um, but she still got nominated for it. Um so maybe they have something for Kate Hudson at the same time. Kind of weird, right? Kate Hudson being the only nomination for Songsung Blue. You would think that would for sure get Hugh Jackman in, possibly picture.

SPEAKER_02: 2:41:50

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:41:51

Um, uh Testament of Ann Lee, another one that you thought would have gotten a best picture nomination, it only got Amanda Seifried, Rose Byrne, no surprise by herself.

SPEAKER_01: 2:42:00

But even since I'm not surprised by the Amanda Seafried being by herself.

SPEAKER_03: 2:42:03

Well, I mean, I guess since the Blue Listed well and it's a musical and it has the period piece and it has, you know, some um international European infrastructure to it. I believe they shot it abroad that may be appealing to them, but that wasn't the case. I think I I was at least expecting it to contend in in the film side. Um, Cynthia Revo is not in Best Picture either. The only best picture girl, uh only best picture actor on the list is Emma Stone for Begonia and Chase Infinity for one battle after another. You don't think that's going to be a factor whatsoever?

SPEAKER_01: 2:42:33

I think both of them are not going to be big competitors for Rose Byrne because one of them is, you know, very relatively new in her acting career, borderline supporting, uh, and that's Chase Infinity and one bat after another. And then the other one has already been handsomely rewarded by the Golden Globes, winning just two years ago for Poor Things. So, really, given that that's her biggest competition, I think Rose Byrne pulls it out.

SPEAKER_03: 2:42:57

All right. Well, um, let's talk about then um supporting actor. Um, nominees were Benicio del Toro for one battle after another, as well as Sean Pan for one battle after another. So they doubled up here. Um Pal Mesko got in for Hamnet, Jacob Belordi got in for Frankenstein, Adam Sandler got in for Jay Kelly, Stan Skarsgaard um nominated for Sentimental Value. A lot of um nominees here are previous winners, including Del Toro, Sean Penn, Skarsgard. First nomination from Paul Meskell. Jacob Alordi, double nominee this year for um supporting actor, but also on the mini-series side, Adam Sandler, a former nominee for Punch Drunk Love from PTA. What do you think?

SPEAKER_01: 2:43:36

Um, I think this is one of the tougher races because I think it's really between Stellan Skarsgard or Jacob Alordy. You know, I do feel pretty confident that Stellan Skarsgard will prevail at the Oscars. But when it comes to the Golden Globes and, you know, them liking to, you know, uh name check, you know, the biggest name and spotlight the biggest name, the biggest draw. Um, and you know, Jacob Alordy being the sort of you know, the you know, um the popularity that he has at the moment, you know, this young, attractive guy, and and the transformative aspect to you, you know, playing the the monster in Frankenstein. I think those are all things that tend to appeal to an awards body like the Golden Globes. However, I really do feel that they really liked sentimental value having seven nominations. It's a tough one. It's a tough one between those two. Right now, I feel inclined to say it's Tanz Garsgaard for Sentimental Value.

SPEAKER_03: 2:44:31

Do you think that the love for Frankenstein is going to play a factor? I mean, this is a movie they got nominated for Oscar Isaac as well. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:44:38

And it's kind of like one of the few opportunities that they have to get Frankenstein's.

SPEAKER_03: 2:44:41

Exactly. Um, because it's got picture, director, I mean a lot of other races that are it's just not as competitive. And do you think here, because it is extremely competitive here in supporting actor, do you think that just they're going to look at this as the the opportunity to give a win to Frankenstein?

SPEAKER_01: 2:44:59

It could be. Like I said, uh it it it's the it's one of the tougher acting categories, the other one possibly being, you know, the supporting category, the uh supporting actress. Right. Um it's tough. I don't know. You know, there's something about Stan Skarsgard winning for that performance in Sentimental Value that to me feels like the kind of thing that the Golden Globes would want to award. He is a past winner, that's something you consider pretty recently for Chernobyl Chernobyl. But I don't know, you know, especially you know, with the Hollywood Foreign Press, the foreign appeal of the film. He's playing a filmmaker, you know. I don't know. To me, it's sense it it seems to me like the kind of move that they'd make. They'd that they they'd give it to Styles King.

SPEAKER_03: 2:45:47

You're giving him the edge. I mean, I will say again, as we were saying about double nominees, right now Jeremy Allen White is up for the bear. Um, it's his fourth time. It would be the fourth consecutive time he wins on the on the TV side for that performance. Um, he's up for Springsteen, where he's not as competitive. Amanda Saefried, you're voting against and Best Actress, and she's up for a miniseries as well, but she's not as competitive there. Jacob is possibly the best candidate of all the double nominees to squeeze out a win. Right. Because he's in Frankenstein, the most beloved film between that, Springsteen, and Hadley.

SPEAKER_04: 2:46:22

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:46:22

But so it'll come close, but you're you're leaning towards Tanz Garsgard.

SPEAKER_01: 2:46:26

I am at the moment.

SPEAKER_03: 2:46:27

What about you? I think I I would probably say that statistically this looks like it should it should go to Jacob.

SPEAKER_01: 2:46:33

Yeah, yeah, it's it's one of the tougher categories.

SPEAKER_03: 2:46:36

Um, well, let's jump to supporting actors then, because the nominees there were Emily Blunt for the Smashing Machine, which was a surprise. Uh Real Person uh Al Fanning for Sentimental Value, as well as Ingap's daughter Lilias for Sentimental Value. So they doubled up here, just like the one battle guys didn't supporting actor. Ariana Grande got in again for Wicked for Good. Amy Madigan uh was in for weapons, which was great to see, and Tayana Taylor was the sole nominee here for one bat after another.

SPEAKER_01: 2:47:03

You know, I think the only um this is an interesting category because I think besides Emily Blunt, there could be an argument that any of the other five could possibly win this category. Um I I think that Al Fanning and Inga kind of there might be a little bit of a vote splitting there happening between the two of them. Um so I probably would refrain from predicting them. I think Ariana Grande is not in a best picture movie, so I think that it's probably a good idea to favor, you know, or to look at, you know, the contenders that are in best picture films um for these wins in the acting categories when when you have the opportunity to do so. Um but Amy Madigan is also not in a best picture film, and she has been nominated a few times at the Golden Globe, she's a past winner for the Golden Globes. Yeah, I think they respect her. Um I think you know, the more that this award season unspools, I think people will see that the industry is pretty happy to root for Amy Madigan at this moment in her career. And I think again, when I think about who the Golden Globes want on their stage, Amy Madigan is attractive for that. Um, that being said, I do think that we're averaging some diversity in the you know, um acting winners. Um, and right now all we've got is Wagner Mora for the secret agent. Possibly, could that be the only one? Possibly, but I would wager that, you know, if they can, they would try to spread the wealth a little bit, you know, have a lineup that's more diverse. On top of that, Tana Taylor is also in a best picture film, probably the best picture winner. Um, and it'd be one of the only ways to give one battle after another an acting win. So I'm gonna go out on a limb and I'm gonna say that Tana Taylor wins the Golden Globe for Best Supporting Actress over what probably some people think is the favorite, and that I would, you know, that I understand being the favorite at this moment, and that's Amy Madigan for weapons.

SPEAKER_03: 2:49:08

You know, I will say that that makes a lot of sense to me. Um but keep your eye out for Al Fanning because she's been nominated before, um, she plays an actor. Um but also just of all of the individuals who do not have a Golden Globe, so I'm not including, you know, um Emily Blunt, Amy Madigan, she seems to me the one that's most ripe in her career for this kind of win, um, at least among the Golden Globes or what or how the Golden Globes have traditionally voted. So keep your eye out on that.

SPEAKER_01: 2:49:41

That's interesting. And you think that Ariana Grande, you know, doesn't is not at that level uh from the other possibilities?

SPEAKER_03: 2:49:48

I think it's tough because Ariana Grande, even I think the wicked miss for Best Picture really is really hurts the film. I think the film would probably be most competitive in the the box office success category or the song category. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:50:02

Um for best screenplay, I think we saw that a very, very uh prominent trend for the Golden Globes is that the screenplay award ends up going to a film that did not win any of the best picture awards. Right. So if you look at it that way, I think the favorites would have to be um take out Hamnet and take out one bad after another. I think the favorites would have to be two foreign films. It was just an accident and sentimental value, as well as Sinners. Right. However, I think that the Golden Globes would prefer um either of the two other foreign films. Not the genre. This sort of spectacle genre film that is Sinners. That makes sense. So I choose between it was just an accident and sentimental value. And of the two, Sentimental Value has more nominations, including getting a nomination that we didn't think was going to happen for Inga, Ipsot Lilius for supporting actress. So I'm going with sentimental value being a screenplay winner.

SPEAKER_03: 2:50:54

I agree with you. I think it's between those two.

SPEAKER_01: 2:50:56

And I think in a similar way that um Anatomy of a Fall won't screenplay here, I believe, I believe um it's year, 2023. I I think so. I believe so, yes. I think that it might precipitate a sort of, you know, uh sort sort of situate sentimental value as the favorite for the original screenplay category.

SPEAKER_03: 2:51:17

And I bump it into the forerunner for this category. I I I think that's a very interesting point. I think it could happen. You know, watch out for Jafar Panahi because I think that this group especially is going to want to spotlight it was just an accident, that filmmaker and what his films are about. Um, I think we're thinking they're going to spread the wealth.

SPEAKER_01: 2:51:34

Right. But as that's what I was gonna say, that because we're thinking that it was just an accident, we'll win Best International Film and they'll have Jafar Panahi on the stage for that award, that they'll have more space to give sentimental value. Especially if Jacob Ballordi ends up winning supporting actor, then this is one of the very few places that they can actually spotlight some sentimental value.

SPEAKER_03: 2:51:55

Um, I think that's a great point. Um, of course, they could always flip. Um, and so let's jump next to um non-English language film, um, international film, nominees where it was just an accident, no other choice, the secret agent, sentimental value, Surratt and the voice of Hum Rajab finally made it in from Tunisia. Um, and so certainly you what you could see is sentimental win screenplay and something like it was just an accident, right? Win international film, foreign language film. Um, especially because we're sort of pegging Wagner as the winner for best actor, so there's less pressure for the secret agent to win there, even though it's been doing really well in this category. Right. Um, but you could always flip, right? You can have it was just an accident be the screenplay winner and sentimental value win foreign film. Um so which way are you siding?

SPEAKER_01: 2:52:41

So I like you know, uh like we said, I think that it was just an accident, you know, this would be kind of the best place to give Jafar Panahi a platform, a spotlight, um, his story and his filmmaking. Um so I'm thinking it was just an accident, yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 2:52:57

Do you think there's any chance that one of the foreign films walks out completely empty? You know, that they sort of start, you know, um, sort of cannibalizing each other. Of those three. Yeah, between those three. I mean, no other choices are no other choice, too. Oh, no other choices are for picture and actor. So even between the four of them, um, and I think right now we're pegging no other choice to go home empty. Yeah, yeah. Um, but between those three, um, which are on the drama side, which could be a little bit heftier, we can say, um, do you think that there's a chance that between the secret agent, it was just an accident, and sentimental value, that there's a possibility that one of them goes empty. No. No, you think that they really want to spread it between them. Yeah, okay, that makes sense. Um, all right, so let's look at um animated film. The nominees were Arco, uh, Demon Slayer got in, Elio, K-pop Demon Hunters, uh, Little Amelia, the character of Rain, and Zootopia 2.

SPEAKER_01: 2:53:47

I think I I think this is an easy one. I think K-pop Demon Hunters is the more popular one, the more populous choice. And I think that when they can, especially in these sort of you know, side categories, ghettoized categories, they'll go with the populist pick. So yeah, I say keep K-pop demon hunters.

SPEAKER_03: 2:54:03

Okay. I mean, I think it makes a lot of sense. I think it has to be the favorite. Um, but I think we should jump from there into um box office, uh, box office achievement. Um bunch of nominees here, including K-pop Demon Hunters. Um, the nominees were Avatar Fire and Ash, F1, K-pop Demon Hunters, Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning, Sinners Weapons, Wicked for Good, and Zootopia 2.

SPEAKER_01: 2:54:26

I think that Sinners has to do well overall. And right now we're kind of blanking it for too many. So I think this is one of the prime places for it to prevail and win. As we saw with I like the comparison you used with Barbie, which was a big hit, you know. Um, you know, but there were also aspects of that film that were particularly niche. You know, I think the the nicheness, you know, of the genre-ness of it all, you know, um, for the Golden Globes in particular, might make it more attractive to spotlight them in the box office achievement category, which I think is a sham. Um uh but I think this is a prime place to give sinners something.

SPEAKER_03: 2:55:04

Right. Um, I think K-pop could show up here possibly, but since it's winning animated, I think you're right. This is the moment to give an award to Sners, which comes at the detriment of you know bigger movies like F1, Avatar, and Wicked, which could potentially walk away with nothing.

SPEAKER_02: 2:55:19

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:55:19

Um, let's jump then to another category where Sinners, I would assume, should be very competitive, and that's original song. Um, nominees included Dream as One from Avatar Fire and Ash, The Girl in the Bubble from Wicked for Good, Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters, I Lied to You from Sinners, No Place Like Home from Wicked for Good, double nomination, and Train Dreams from Train Dreams.

SPEAKER_01: 2:55:39

Right. I actually think that this might be a place where K-pop Demon Hunters prevails as well. Okay, because there's a foreign aspect to it, you know, in terms of the musicians and the lyricists for that, for that, for that, uh, and and and the musicians behind that that song. Um, and that's such a big hit commercially as well. Um, I wouldn't be surprised if Sinners won for I Lied to you, but right now I would side with K-pop and instead give Sinners score. All right.

SPEAKER_03: 2:56:06

So then you're thinking Sinners for score. Um, the nominees there are Frankenstein, and again, you don't have it for very, very many uh wins here, especially without Jacob Ballorty. Um, Sinners, one battle after another. Surratt scored a nomination here, which was a surprise to some. Hamnet and F1, Hans Zimmer got in for F1. Uh so here you're thinking is where Sinners is gonna walk out with another win.

SPEAKER_05: 2:56:28

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03: 2:56:28

All right, so um Sinners here. I think that's I think that's smart. Um, I will say the nomination for Surratt is interesting.

SPEAKER_04: 2:56:34

Yes.

SPEAKER_03: 2:56:35

Um, and this would be maybe one of the few areas that they could give a win to Surrat if they really wanted to. Uh Frankenstein as well, they do like a lot. Alexander Desplah, so keep an eye on that. Um, the final category um was best director. Nominees were Paul Thomas Anderson, one bet after another, Ryan Kugler got in for Sinners, Guillermo del Toro got in for Frankenstein, Jafar Panahi, pretty much just an accident, Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value, Chloe Zhao for Hamnet.

SPEAKER_01: 2:57:03

I think this is one of the easier categories to predict. I think a recent trend has been that one of the films that wins best picture, they also win best director. Um, and uh I just think that there's no stopping Paul Thomas Anderson for this film, and he's gonna be the clear favorite all season long, and he's winning this award hands down, in my opinion. I think that makes a lot of sense. Is there a scenario someone like Jafar Panahi? Right, right. But I guess like I said, I because Jafarpa because one battle is winning best picture and there's been that trend, and because they're gonna already have an opportunity to spot like Jafar Panahi, you know, for the international phone category, there's just no reason to depart from that trend, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_03: 2:57:46

Do you think that just the story of Jafar Panahi is maybe gonna make him a very tempting spoiler?

SPEAKER_01: 2:57:55

I could agree. Yeah, 100%.

SPEAKER_03: 2:57:56

100%. I think he is the spoiler. Especially, for example, if what if they don't want to share the wealth between all the foreign films and they want one foreign film to dominate, to get more than one win? This would be an easy way to give it was just an accident, foreign film and director, for example, or um secret agent, actor and foreign film, but then you can have Jafar Panahi show up for director. Um so you you think that maybe um all the the story, the narrative surrounding Jafar Panahi and him sort of you know being at odds um with his with his government, um, that that can maybe play out to seeing a moment where Jafar Panahi, I don't even know if he'll be there. I suspect that he will not be there, but a moment where a moment of solidarity, yeah, where we um present that award um to Jafar Panahi and again what his cinema stands for, what his cinema stands for and what he accomplished this year.

SPEAKER_01: 2:58:47

Yeah, I agree. I think he is uh certainly the spoiler. But I think from the Hollywood forum press. Right, right. But I do feel like PGA will will be it'll break for Paul Thomas Anderson.

SPEAKER_03: 2:58:56

Yeah, uh, you know what's kind of interesting is that most of the time you don't want to be winning, I think, the best director prize at the Golden Globes. So that's kind of interesting if you see that breaking for Paul Thomas Anderson. Um, all right, so that's how we see the Golden Globes playing out. Um, I think uh let's talk about uh quickly what some of our reaction is to what the results were for the critic's choice. All right, and keeping with uh critic's choice tradition, it was a very awkward ceremony. Um let's go over uh some of the winners here. Um Visual Effects uh went to Avatar, no surprise there, right? Um, this is actually the first year they're presenting an award for best sound, and the win went to F1. That was kind of weird. Which was I think it was uninspired. Um it kind of makes sense, I guess, because you know, to a certain degree they try to project who might win the Oscar, and it's about race car driving. You know, maybe there was some vote splitting here. I don't know. Um, I didn't think it was a very inspired choice.

SPEAKER_01: 2:59:56

Neither did I, but maybe it adds, you know, credence to this idea that it's it's Definitely going to be a nominee for sound.

SPEAKER_03: 3:00:01

I will say this. Again, it's their first time presenting the award. You should never be under the impression that the win, especially below the line, is a guarantee of anything. This is the same critics' choice that gave a win to Barbie for makeup. It would not qualify. That gave a win to Visual Effects to Oppenheimer, it did not qualify. Um, and so this routinely happens. I uh last year they also gave a uh, for example, they gave the win for editing to challengers, which was very well deserved, fantastic, inspiring choice. Um, but it didn't make it at the very end. Um Hair and Makeup went to Frankenstein, no surprise there, right? We thought that was gonna happen. Um keeping on the trajectory, Frankenstein also walked out with the win for costume design and for production design. Um, I was I for one was a little bit surprised because I thought Wicked, which was still a best picture nominee, despite being uh despite polarizing critics, um, would at least walk out with the costume design win, but that was not the case.

SPEAKER_01: 3:00:53

Right, right. I wonder if, again, can you see a repeat here happening at the Oscars where Frankenstein sweeps those three texts as well?

SPEAKER_03: 3:01:02

You know what would be fascinating about that is I don't think that, you know, for all of the um accolades that Nightmare Alley and Shape of Water scored, right? It didn't win those categories. You know, it didn't score wins for costume production design. Uh I believe it did win production production design. It did it for Shape of Water?

SPEAKER_01: 3:01:20

Yeah, it won score production design, director and picture.

SPEAKER_03: 3:01:23

Okay, so I mean, well, you know, in Gamewood Toro's Ouvoir, you know, costume design has remained elusive to him because Pan's Labyrinth didn't even get nominated there. So could I think you're right, we could very well be seeing these three repeat for Frankenstein at the Oscars. Um, nominees for, I'm sorry, the winner for a song was Golden, which is what you thought you would happen for K-pop. Um, as score went to Sinners. No surprise there, should still be the favorite. Um on the animated side, K-pop was also the winner. Right. Um, and in a quite embarrassing moment, the secret agent won foreign language film off air, on the carpet. Um, and then they tried to like save face by inviting um Cleaver and Wagner to present Best Picture. And I thought the best moment of the night was when Wagner Mora presented Best Picture and said, Well, we in Brazil call Best Foreign Film was I think that was fantastic. Um cinematography went to train dreams.

SPEAKER_01: 3:02:21

I think that's one of the interesting wins. You know, it was one of the wins where it felt like you know they weren't trying to predict Oscars and they went with what they were most passionate about. I think Cinners is still the very the favorite. But seeing a win for train dreams was interesting.

SPEAKER_03: 3:02:34

It was nice, it was it was nice, but I have to say it kind of sucks that autumn didn't get a chance to go on stage. I don't know if she was there. Um, but I don't think any of those got a chance to get any of yeah, uh you're right, that's right. They presented it during the commercial breaks. Um, but kind of surprising for centers not to win there, and I don't think that we're going to see that happen again, whether it's at the guild or or outside.

SPEAKER_01: 3:02:57

It might show that there's just general passion behind Train Dreams. Yeah, they wanted to give it something. Yeah, you know, which goes, you know, which which uh back up backs up our idea that it's a it's a very well-liked film.

SPEAKER_03: 3:03:08

Yeah, I uh F1 won editing in a category that also had a House of Dynamite with its only nomination because they need a veteran here, The Perfect Neighbor, which was a very inspired choice, Marty Supreme, one bad after another, and Zinners. Um, I don't expect F1 to repeat this win at the Oscars.

SPEAKER_01: 3:03:23

But possibly it will do well and get nominated. Maybe, maybe again. Again, certainly in that veteran spot.

SPEAKER_03: 3:03:30

Right. I I think it could happen, but it no win, I think, guarantees the inclusion there. Um if we look at maybe some of those specialized categories, ensemble went to Sinners, which is what we were thinking was gonna happen, right? And Young Actor went to Miles Caden for Sinners, which was which was great to see. Um, even though Jacobi Jup looked disappointed. Um very sweet moment between him and um Chloe Zhao at the ceremony. Very a lot of people talked about it. Um let's see. Overall, I I believe that um Sinners and Frankenstein walked out with Frankenstein had four. Yeah, Frankenstein walked out with four, Sinners walked out with four, one battle after another walked out with three, F1 walked out with two, as did Cape Up Demon Hunters. Let's talk a little bit about what happened above the line. Um, adapted screenplay, one bad after another. No surprise, no surprise there. Original screenplay went to Cinners.

SPEAKER_01: 3:04:25

They certainly picked what was what has so far been the favorite amongst the Crix group's precursors. Um, I find it odd the whole center screenplay thing, because I am someone who believes alongside of you, I believe that the screenplay is kind of like the weakest part of the film. Right. Um, and I it's one reason why I always expected the film to possibly get snubbed when it came time to the Oscars. However, that seems less and less likely that it will get nominated. And in the event that it does, I don't expect it to win that category. Sinners. Uh exactly, sinners. I have found it kind of strange that it has been the favorite amongst critics' groups. Right. Um, so I think they went with the favorite, but I I don't expect that to repeat.

SPEAKER_03: 3:05:06

Maybe because the idea and the concept the concept is so inspired. I certainly feel like it's a film that's more directed than 100%. Um I would rather, you know, give Rand Kugler um the award for directing rather than than writing. Right. At the same time, it does feel to me like a moment where they could easily hand it to um sinners. Um, one of the big stories I think here, and we'll touch upon as we continue to talk about the winners, Sentimental Value walked out with nothing. Um and and it lost your original screenplay. You and I think.

SPEAKER_01: 3:05:35

But it but it wasn't very liked by this group in general. It didn't get an eye for Best Picture, did it?

SPEAKER_03: 3:05:40

Well, yes, it did. Oh, it did. It missed something. It missed international film, which is kind of weird. It's bizarre. Which is so it's a foreign film that made it into Best Picture, but did not make it into foreign film. It was, I not I believe it was nominated for uh eight uh Critics Choice Awards, but it did not get any wins whatsoever. It was nominated for seven, excuse me, seven Critics Choice Awards. It didn't get any wins anywhere, um, which is kind of interesting to see. Um, it got as many wins as one of the least popular international films, which we had pegged for international film, which was it was just an accident. Right. The big winner for international films was really the secret agent, who really only won international film. So certainly the critic's choice, oddly enough, is one of the least international of all these accolades that are being given at the end of the year. Um, moving on to supporting actress, we saw a win for Amy Madigan and Weapons, and you were early on this and she ended up winning. You predicted her to win. What would you think?

SPEAKER_01: 3:06:39

I certainly think that she was the favorite to win here. You know, considering that she's the precursor favorite, uh, you know, uh the critic's choice does tend to favor whoever's the precursor favorite when they can. Obviously, they're not going to do it for Rose Byrne. Um, but when they can do it, you know, especially in the supporting categories, they'll do it. And so they picked the precursor favorite, which is Amy Madigan, but I do think she's close with uh Tayana actually. Actually, no, not no not at well, you know, you know, she's certainly ahead, but they're they're they're somewhat close. Check out our charts, by the way. They're on our website. Um uh they have the precursors there. Um, but I think it's a good win for her. I think her getting on stage, again, just began to show that there is industry favor. The industry favors her and is really uh happy about celebrating and rooting for her in this moment. You know, I think she's gonna give good speeches. I think there's something really laid back, very unpretentious about her, organic, very organic, very natural, and something just nice seeing someone not in their prime having such a prime moment.

SPEAKER_03: 3:07:46

It kind of felt that Ethan Hawk was happy to give her the award, too, right?

SPEAKER_01: 3:07:49

Yeah. You know, she's just been around for a very long time. You know, she has a decades-long career. Um, I just it feels like the beginning of something forming here for her, possibly, in that, you know, even if it's an unorthodox choice for a best supporting actress to win, it might just have all the right elements and more importantly, the industry, yeah, the industry backing behind it to make it happen.

SPEAKER_03: 3:08:14

I think it's also interesting. Again, Amy Madigan is the longtime partner of Ed Harris, and that's uh an important thing to remember. But something else is, you know, I think it was really appropriate that Ethan Hawk gave her the award. Ethan Hawk was a nominee tonight. Um, he did not win. Um, but they sort of have similar stories in the sense that they've been in the industry for such a long time and they can do anything, and they've mostly done everything. And Ethan Hawk is a nominee this year, but Ethan Hawk will just as um professionally and just as you know creatively tackle the black phone as he will Blue Moon. And so I think it was really appropriate to have this actor who can appreciate what Amy Madigan could bring to a movie um beyond, you know, a box-in, pre-packaged Oscar contender. It's a horror film, but it's still, you know, it she did an im an incredible job acting in it. Right. You know, and I think that he's one of those actors who, if he had a list, I think he would put her heart.

SPEAKER_01: 3:09:05

Right. Exactly. Um I I I initially when the ceremony started, we were, I mean, we life, we did the whole thing, but we also um I, you know, I I interpret it as if they're gonna follow their hearts, they're gonna vote for Amy Madigan. If they're gonna go with who they think is going to win the Oscar at the end of the day, I think they would have chosen Tayana Taylor. I think they went with their hearts. But like I said, I think this could be the beginning of seeing just how much the industry is willing to make this win happen. Um, I would say, and we've talked about this, and we'll see how much of it comes into fruition, especially this week with the SAG nominations. I will say watch our for Wumi Musaku, you know, who might just be the best alternative to, okay, maybe I don't want to give it to Tiana Taylor because the character is a little bit too, you know, prickly for me. Maybe I don't want to give it to Amy Madigan. She might be a solo nominee. Weapons wasn't really my thing. It's very genre. Well, you know what? You kind of get the best of both worlds in a way, uh, with Wumi Musaku and Sinners, who's which is also you know, probably gonna be a big best picture favorite. So watch out for Wumi Musaku. Yeah. Because at the end, she could really muster a lot of goodwill. And that could be an that could be an acting one.

SPEAKER_03: 3:10:15

I agree, I agree there. And um, you have to be careful with a nomination for her at the SAG where the tide could really turn um Woomi Musaku previous BAFTA nominee. So don't be surprised if you get a little bit of uh a tide, uh turn of the tide there as well. Um, but continuing with with the love for horror film, supporting the actor went to Jacob Alordi for Frankenstein, which is something you were sort of resistant to, but I had sort of pegged as maybe this was a place they were going to uh give the win to. And it kind of not not too different from what you're saying, in the sense where it's just been discussed at such length where if they're gonna fall their heart, it kind of made me feel like it would have gone for this performance from Jacobs Talon.

SPEAKER_01: 3:10:53

I would have I thought they would have wanted to predict who was gonna win the Oscar, but they didn't.

SPEAKER_03: 3:10:57

I mean, they didn't, unless they really think that there's a lot of mileage here, which may be the case. Maybe we're underestimating it, or maybe they're probably overestimating it. Um, because even if he does get nominated, I assume at one point just the nature of him being early in his career, the nature of the role is going to factor against him. But it was a huge win, a huge win for him.

SPEAKER_01: 3:11:18

Yeah, I don't I think Stan Scarsgard wasn't there, was he? Um, I don't know. I didn't see I don't think he was.

SPEAKER_03: 3:11:23

I know I saw L. And I think I saw Inga. I don't know. I saw Inga either. I know I saw L. That's very interesting. I wonder if that could have played a part. You know what? I think he was there because they had an interview with Alexander, his son, who was there, and I think they had alluded to his father was on the way or something like that. But I did not see him. I did not see him. But again, that's a big win for him. Not a lock by any means. I don't think Amy Madigan's a lock either. And I think we'll cap this off after the lead actors. But the critics' choice are not infallible. Um, but first let's talk about best actress, and finally, Jesse Buckley gets on the stage for Hamnet, and she lives up to all the expectations of what was a great speech.

SPEAKER_01: 3:11:59

Yeah, great speech. You could feel in the room the appreciation and the respect for the performance, uh, for the actor, for her talent.

SPEAKER_03: 3:12:07

Um the respect that the actor also has for the craft exactly what comes through. Yeah, just like very earnestly, just thanking everyone there for inspiring her and sort of sharing in a community of storytellers, sort of the the metaphor or the story of the cave drawings in the cave and I really yeah, I really felt like she held the audience's uh attention.

SPEAKER_01: 3:12:29

And again, I just think that it felt to me like you know, the room was ready and proud to have her represent them as their best actor.

SPEAKER_03: 3:12:41

I feel that's exact I think I think you said exactly what was on my mind. I think by far the best speech on the film side. I think the best speech might have been Raya Seahorn for Plurbus, but I think the best speech on the film side was uh Jesse Buckley. And I feel like that's the speech that most voters are gonna say, I want to hear that three or four more times.

SPEAKER_04: 3:13:02

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 3:13:02

Right. Um, which brings us to our final speech, which was the win for best actor went to uh Timothy Chalamet, which you had correctly predicted. I was a little bit split. I thought it would be Leo DiCaprio for one battle after another.

SPEAKER_01: 3:13:13

Well, before we get there, I think I think there's a lot to unpack with the Timothy Chalamet stuff, you know, that I think was one of the more interesting, revelatory moments of the entire thing. Before that, we'll just, you know, really quickly, you know, obviously the the Oscar firm runner that is one battle after another, one best picture and best director, those weren't surprises. I expect that to happen again at the uh Golden Globes. I think the big sort of ceremony where they might get a little bit stopped in their tracks, one battle after another meaning, uh, would be the sag when they might very well lose to Sinners.

SPEAKER_03: 3:13:46

But other than that, or the PGA also were. Well, I guess maybe maybe the future of that Sinners had maybe like I said, I think I tweeted something like that. You know, as the race comes to a close and we get like to the very last week or two of the Oscar season, you know, get ready for this race to get really close between Sinners and One Battle, and Warner Brothers wins regardless. Um, but I think you're right, no surprise, one battle wins, director and picture. Paul was very brief on stage, very visibly nervous. Um, it was great to see him on there.

SPEAKER_01: 3:14:16

Um I mean, yeah, as we've said, Paul uh Thomas Anderson is our hero, you know, and and and seeing him on stage is is just a pleasure.

SPEAKER_03: 3:14:24

And it's also great because it's very evident that for Paul and for a lot of people just um there tonight, and I'm I suspect this will be the case throughout the season. You know, Ryan Kugler and everything he's achieved this year with Sinners is a hero to them, yeah. Um, which was great to see. Um, but so let's circle back around to what we think was maybe one of the more consequential moments of the night, um, which is the Timothy Chalamet win for Marty Supreme. Again, you had pegged this, I had thought maybe DiCaprio for one bat after another.

SPEAKER_01: 3:14:49

Certainly he was, I thought, I think in my for most people, he was the favorite. So I wasn't surprised by the win. Marty Supreme. Unfortunately, I don't think that the speech lived up to it, uh lived up to the moment, so to speak. Right. Um, I think it was he was nervous, you know, he stumbled on his words.

SPEAKER_03: 3:15:06

You know what? He came in late. There was some discussion about him coming in late.

SPEAKER_01: 3:15:10

Right. He, you know, he fumbled some of his words, he didn't come across as very um uh poised. Poised, you know, um, I think that was missing. But I couldn't help but look at some of the reaction shots from people like Joel Edgerton and Ethan Hawke and Wagner Morall. And I just felt like in the air, there must have been, or felt like there was at least this this the sensation of, you know, this young actor who's not even 30 yet is getting this, you know, moment. And here I am, you know, with a decades-long career because Wagner Mora might be familiar with, you know, familiar for people who've seen Monarchos and that, but he's actually been working for a very long time.

SPEAKER_02: 3:15:54

Very long time.

SPEAKER_01: 3:15:55

Uh, you know, they you can't help but think that they would feel kind of like, you know, well, I guess, you know, it's not my moment yet, but I've been doing this for a really long time. And here's this young man, you know, sort of capitalizing on the moment, and and you know, the sort of a discrepancy in that. And I can't help but feel like the reaction shots really expressed that, really portrayed that. I can't help but feel that Joe Ederton was thinking that, that Wagnamore was thinking that, that Ethan Hawk was thinking that, and then add that the speech didn't have that sort of, you know, uh control and poise. You know, it kind of just added to this narrative that is Timothy Chalamet really ready to win an Academy Award?

SPEAKER_03: 3:16:37

I think that that's what happened is we saw a lot of fuel added to that fire because it was not very poised. It was, you know, sort of um not very eloquent and very like um sort of um erratic and shouting out Michael B. Jordan a bunch of times, um, not really discussing the process. Again, it's kind of the antithesis of the speech he gave for a complete unknown, where it seemed very prepared and very ready to deliver his honest feelings about how he feels about himself and his career. So it's kind of a weird mix of that, but at the same time it could be actually also reactionary, you know.

SPEAKER_01: 3:17:13

Maybe last time I did this, you know, and I was, you know, kind of uh being honest, you know. Right.

SPEAKER_03: 3:17:19

I mean, I will also say that it's kind of tough to follow Jesse Buckley, right? Who is you know, seems very much about, you know, how this the art touches her or or or inspires her in a very specific way, um very personal way, um, and just a lot of appreciation. Um, and again, she was just she was ready to be in the moment, yeah, despite it being her first time on that stage. Um, and it just didn't seem like Timothy was on that level, and it didn't seem like any one of those individuals that you talked about, and I'll add Michael B. Jordan, it didn't seem like what he was delivering was very inspiring or um inspiring to them.

SPEAKER_02: 3:18:01

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 3:18:02

Um, and so I I do he did seem it did seem a little bit like um like the young man in the room, like the youngest nominee in the category one, yeah, and it that it was apparent.

SPEAKER_01: 3:18:14

Yeah, exactly. And I think this coalesces a little bit with things that I've been surging with Timothy Chalamet for a while now, and it's that, you know, besides having this sort of youthful energy to him, you know, he is a very young man, he's not even 30 yet, I believe so. Um, you know, he's very popular at the moment. He's dating a Kardashian, you know, he's dating uh Kylie Jenner, you know, he's very much in the pulse of, you know, you know, um uh mainstream pop culture. Um there's an aspect to all of this that I think might just be a little bit too loud and too, you know, um ostentatious ostentatious for some voters. And I also think who who like their actors a little bit more, you know, reserved, you know, like Jesse Buckley for the craft. Right, you know, I do this for the craft, add to that the antics of the campaign, the antics of the promotional the press tour for Marty Supreme, I think might have rubbed people the wrong way.

SPEAKER_03: 3:19:14

Again, it's been very successful because the film has made a lot of money.

SPEAKER_01: 3:19:17

But yes, the seeing him rapping, you know, and you're seeing him, yeah, just with these anti with this cockiness on top of this. In a way, in a way, it's all it's for some voters, it could easily be polarizing, it could easily be unattractive. But then when you have a moment like this, it's sort of like because those things already exist in the ether, those antics, the popularity, you know, all of that stuff, you have doubly the the pressure to like perform, to hit it out of the park. Right, you know, um, because it's not as if you know it's an unknown actor that I'm getting to know for the first time. Right. Like Mikey Madison, in a way, who didn't give super eloquent speeches when she won. Um, but you know, they were acceptable because. Because you know, it's a new face that you're just getting to know and you're happy for her.

SPEAKER_02: 3:20:03

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 3:20:03

It's almost like all that attention on Timothy Chalamet as the person, as the figure, just adds more pressure to having to pull these moments off.

SPEAKER_03: 3:20:12

Right. But the expectation I think is a little bit higher for Timothy Chalamet, even if that is unfair, and maybe it is, but it's she's he's not like Mikey Madison. Mikey Madison had her moment in Onora that he had in Call Me by Your Name. And so he's been on the stage, or you know, he's been in this environment several times already. So to me, it's sort of like, you know, when Joaquin Phoenix lost for all those uh times he was nominated, you know, he wasn't necessarily at a place to deliver the sort of speeches and the sort of um appreciation and the sort of um share the sort of wisdom that he's had over an immense career when he was finally up for the win for Joker. Right. Right. It's sort of like it sort of coalesced where the industry was finally ready to give it to him and he was finally ready to accept it in a way that they were comfortable with, if that makes sense. Right. Um, and and it sometimes it doesn't reflect the performance, but this comes with you know all campaigning. And so certainly it was the speech that you and I were sort of left thinking this is a stumble. Right. This is an immediate stumble.

SPEAKER_01: 3:21:14

But I'll also say, you know, unfairly as it may sound, you know, I do think that, you know, the fact that he's dating Kylie and again, just I think adds more spotlight to this idea that he's, you know, a very popular figure, you know, um, in pop culture at the moment, that I think makes it a little bit less attractive to give him an Oscar before the age of 30 or at the age of 30. You know, in a way some voters might see his uh his uh his three nominations in lead, possibly three nominations in lead as award enough, you know, that maybe he's not yet at that stage where they feel the maturity is there to, I guess, that they're the maturity that that they're comfortable with, you know, to give him the the lead actor Oscar win. I don't know.

SPEAKER_03: 3:22:06

Right. I mean, I I think you're valid in all the things you're saying, and I I share that sentiment and those thoughts.

SPEAKER_01: 3:22:11

And I again I I I feel bad saying that because I don't think you should oh no you should never judge or or judge someone's performance or their work based on, for example, who they're dating. Right, right. But I think in the society that we live in, unfair as it is, you know, I think those are things that you think about, right? You know, like you know, Timothy Chalamet, dating Kylie Jenner, you know, rapping, all these, all these things, you know, they just make him less a less attractive contender.

SPEAKER_03: 3:22:36

Right. And, you know, I think part of the issue also, and I think that that element exists, but I'm not sure it's going to take over everything. But to me, more importantly, is just the quality of the speech, right, married with his age, which is very young in his career to be getting this award. Um coupled with the character of Marty uh Marty Mauser from Marty Supreme. That to me is where we got started getting too complicated. Because again, I don't think that there's I think Marty Mauser is an extremely unlikable character. And I think, you know, um he Timothy Chalamet does an an incredible job um playing the character, but his unlikability is pretty extreme. Um, I think. Uh, and that's gonna turn off some voters. And so in order to balance that, you really have to knock it out of the park on that stage.

SPEAKER_01: 3:23:31

And so which in a way, I think someone like Demi Moore did such a great job being in a film that doesn't necessarily um uh wouldn't speak to a lot of voters. It's sort of outside their comfort zone. It's you know, very genre, very graphic, you know. But her speeches were so uh, yeah, there's not a lot of dialogue. You know, her speeches were so of such high quality, have high caliber that it helped balance things out, you know?

SPEAKER_03: 3:23:54

Yeah, incredibly earnest, incredibly authentic, well spoken, uh well spoken, humble. Um, and those things factor in, and again, she's still lost, so they're always gonna judge the work first, but they are gonna judge, I think, the fact that Marty Mauser is unlikable. Um, add to that that he's coming off the the achievement and the nomination for a complete unknown. I I'm not sure if that helps or hurts. I we already talked about how I think that there's a timing issue here, but you and I are sort of at this impasse where um we feel that it's gonna be very difficult for Ethan Hawke not to get nominated.

SPEAKER_04: 3:24:33

Right.

SPEAKER_03: 3:24:33

Leonardo DiCaprio's in one bat after another, and he just he's coming off a snub for Killers of the Flower Moon. Um, we feel that Wagner Mora is in the right vehicle and the secret agent is turning into a best picture movie, um, as we had sort of seen the potential for ever since can, right? Um, and it seems very difficult to maybe muscle him out. You refuse to sort of see how Joe Edgerton can be snubbed. Right. I mean, especially for Train Dreams picking up so much steam as of late.

SPEAKER_01: 3:25:00

Exactly. You know, if it's if if he's in a best picture movie, I feel like he's an actor who's paid his dues. He's been around for a very long time, he's worked with several actors. I think he has he commands respect for his craft, for his talent. You know, I have a really hard time seeing him get snubbed if he's in a best picture mill. He's also a best picture.

SPEAKER_03: 3:25:19

He's also one of the few international actors on this short list. All the rest are Americans. Wagner Mora. Um, excuse me, uh him and Wagner Mora. Um, and you usually see that factor in. Um, I, on the other hand, I feel like I refuse to believe that Michael B. Jordan can be snubbed. Because again, Michael B. Jordan has delivered high caliber work in Fruitville Station with Ryan Kugler based on a real life figure. A huge breakout performance would have been nominated in another year. He was excellent in Creed, where his co-star was nominated, um, almost one again with Ryan Kugler. He was uh a scene stealer in Black Panther as the antagonist, as the villain. Um, critics pointed him out it was a best picture movie, and he still didn't get in. I find it hard to believe that Michael B. Jordan at this point in his career is going to be snubbed. And you brought up the idea of you know, lead performances, they tend to be a little bit pickier about what the role is, and you know, the idea that Margot Robbie should have been there statistically for Barbie, right? But that she got snubbed because she was playing Barbie, and that makes sense. Except to me, the difference is Margot Robbie's been nominated several times, three times by that point, and Michael has yet to be nominated. And so if we're at this impasse and you think that Joel won't get in, I'm sorry, that Joe won't get snubbed, and I think that Michael won't get snubbed, the question is who's gonna get pushed out?

SPEAKER_01: 3:26:46

I I see. I think that this is where I think you know, we're in disagreement here, and I think that the thing that Michael B. Jordan has coined for him is possibly, you know, industry goodwill, possibly, he's in a best picture film, his collaborations with Ryan Kugler, etc. And those are big assets. However, we just recently saw Sinners again when it had its uh, you know, its re-release.

SPEAKER_03: 3:27:11

In Amex.

SPEAKER_01: 3:27:12

And you and I, after seeing it, came off came out thinking what we thought the first time, which is that Michael B. Jordan just doesn't have enough here um to land a best actor nomination. He would be landing the best actor nomination above all else because of that goodwill, not because there's a scene to latch on to or there's a big Oscar moment. Um, Michael B. Jordan is missing those things. Um, you know, he has a couple confrontations that are very propelled by, you know, um plot devices. You know, there's also the uh we said that the issue that he's playing two characters, but there's not enough being done in the performance or the in the direction of the performance to differentiate the two twins, the the the set of twins, um uh, which I think might bite him in the butt. Um I don't know. We both felt very strongly that there just didn't seem like there was enough here to land a best actor nomination. And I think what's changing your mind a little bit now is that you see that there's goodwill for him and for the and for the film and Ryan Kugler, etc., in this moment, and I get that, and that's no small thing. But if we're just looking at the film, when they put on the film and they watch the performance, every other actor you mentioned has a gravitas, has a scene, has moments that spell out, you know, Oscar contention. Um, something that he doesn't have. In fact, I would go so far as to say very few people in that movie do have. One of the few people who has it is Woomi Musaku. The problem is, or rather, the advantage is that someone like Woomy, but someone also like Delroy Lindle benefit from being in the supporting category, where that might matter less, A, or B, the competition might be a little bit less fierce. But when we're looking at the six actors possibly who are looking to get nominated for best actor, it's more difficult to say that you're going to snub um Joel Edgerton, for example, who you're right, he doesn't have these big shouting off screen moments, but a lot of it is internal. And a lot of that actors will be appreciative of, that you have to act without your words, that you have to act, you know, trying to express the you know ineffable, um, the the internal. Um uh and you know, then they're showing us like Timothy Chalamet and and and uh Ethan Haag, another very nuanced turn in Wagner Mora, you know. So I just feel like all of these actors, just looking at the work itself, have stronger material than he does.

SPEAKER_03: 3:29:56

I think that that's I understand that point, and I think it's valid. But to me, having just seen Mario Supreme, something really stands out. Timothy Chalamet on that stage really stands apart from the actors around him. Everything that he's accomplished thus far, all the accolades he has, the roles he has versus these other actors, including Ethan Hawk, who has yet to get a nomination in the lead actor race. That's sort of something that's striking to the eye, and I think voters will catch on to that. Add to that that when you see the actual films, again, the character of Marty Mauser really stands out against all the other characters as you know, the least redemptive of the six, um, the least likable of the six, the most problematic of the six, the one that's the difficult the most difficult to like, regardless of the performance. You know, the performance is uh obviously people are gonna appreciate that, right? That your performance was able to bring that character to life, um, but it's not gonna change the way that some voters feel about the character. And in that sense, again, there's a big difference here. In my opinion, you know, between all these elements, the personality, the speeches, um, everything that the actor has accomplished so far, everything the actor will accomplish in the future, where his counterparts are at this point in their career, um, what who the characters are among these six. I think the one on the outside looking in, and it's controversial at this point, but I think that this could catch on as the season progresses, is actually Timothy Chalamet. To add icing to the cake. I actually think it's Timothy in the position of Margot Robbie, in the sense that if you snub Margot Robbie for Barbie, she will get the nomination as the producer for the film. And that's what happened. Michael B. Jordan is not listed as a producer for Sinners. His chance to be nominated is in the actor category, and that's it. Timothy Chalamet is listed as a producer for Marty Supreme. So if he is snubbed from the final five at the Austrias for Best Actor, he will still be nominated as a producer for the film should the film get in. Which I again I think the film should comfortably get in because of a lack of competition.

SPEAKER_01: 3:32:29

Well, I just want to say that we don't know exactly yet if he you know how that is. You know, you there's certain rules. You might be a producer, but at the end you might not qualify for the Oscar one. Right. So we don't know that yet.

SPEAKER_03: 3:32:43

Right now, he is being campaigned as a producer on it on the FYC A24 guild site. So very much, it should very much be in the vein of the way Margot Robbie was nominated as a producer for Barbie. So, because of that, I think the Academy is going to take advantage and leave him off the list and put in all these other actors who have not had an opportunity yet. And I think part of that is everything that we've mentioned, and part of that is the fact that he was just there for a complete unknown for a performance that is, again, as dimensional as that performance is, is quite likable. He did an excellent job. He didn't sugarcoat Bob Dylan at all, right? Um, but that's not the same as what we're being asked to sort of vote for when we see Marty Mauser and Marty Supreme. And so that's what that's I think what where I'm at right now. Um, and we may see this factor in, as I think we will, you know, when SAG comes around and he may lose it. Um, when the Golden Globes come around, and right now we're picking a win for him, but Blue Moon overperformed. So what if Ethan Hawk wins that category?

SPEAKER_01: 3:33:53

Right. If Ethan Hawk wins the Golden Globe, I think I'd be a little bit more open to possibly, you know, seeing a world where he gets snobbed. Right now, I just think there's just too much momentum behind him to get snobbed. I think this real story here is possibly not winning and not being the runaway Oscar winner that people think it's gonna be for Best Actor. I don't think the narrative is, oh wow, he didn't get snobbed. In fact, like I said, uh, you know, again, we disagree here. I think the narrative is Michael B. Jordan is definitely getting in. Oh, wait, he did not get in.

SPEAKER_03: 3:34:28

I think that if Train Dreams is pulling ahead right now at this moment, and Sinners is going to pull in close to spoiling the win for one battle, then I think it's Marty that when you really look at it, doesn't really not very competitive in many categories, doesn't really have a moment this season. It's a good film, it's a good safty film, maybe not the best safty film. I would argue that it's not going to be unanimous that this is the best Chalamet performance. And so looking at all those things, to me, it reads like an also ran. If you're an also ran, I think that puts you on the chopping block because this opportunity does not come around very often for Michael B. Jordan, for Joe Roger Tim.

SPEAKER_01: 3:35:08

Yeah, but you're keeping but you're keeping Leo DiCaprio. Yes. But the only excuse you're using is a snub for colors of flower moon, but they might as well just say, well, Leo is Leo's been here. Yeah. Leo will always be here. Yeah. You know, except we don't have to we don't have to nominate him often.

SPEAKER_03: 3:35:23

Right. And I think that that's a valid point. I mean, if I had to kick someone else out, maybe it would be Leo, with the caveat being that Leo is in the surefire best picture too, right? And the other one being that he's coming off a snub, an egregious snub for Killers of the Flower Moon, right? Um, and that I do think that there's this sort of symmetry here between Leo finally getting finally getting in for a Paul Thomas Anderson film after, you know, passing the chance to work with him in 1997 for Titanic, where he also got snubbed. I just I depends on how many, how much, how many voters are aware of it. I think I think the industry in general is aware of that. But I also think if we look at you know big snubs that you know most contenders have had to deal with, I think the one that's behind is Timothy, isn't he? Because I mean, first reformed, cares of the flower moon, Michael B. Jordan never, Joe Edgerton never, Vagnar Mora, never. So the one who's behind here in terms of you you have to, you know, you get the accolades and you get the flowers, and then you you you take it on the chin as you get your lumps. The one who's sort of behind is Timothy Chalamet, isn't he? Well, he got snuffed for Beautiful Boy, technically, after getting everything. After you're right, he he got snubbed for Beautiful Boy after getting everything, right? Funnily enough, what does that follow after he was the star for Call Me by Your Name? You don't see maybe a symmetry there? Everything that he got for Call Me By Your Name for uh, excuse me, a complete unknown last year and now with Marty Supreme?

SPEAKER_01: 3:36:48

Uh I would say that I disagree with you in the sense that I do think there are people who are gonna think it is his best performance. Um, uh, whether or not I think so, it's irrelevant. You know, I think there are some voters that are going to see sort of the anti-hero of it all and immediately latch on a label of, you know, wow, that was like he went somewhere, you know, right? Uh that kind of performance. Um so I I I disagree with you there. I don't think that there'll be most people won't. I don't think that most people won't think it's his best. I think a large portion will. And I think that right now it's just way too soon to think of such a drastic step as snubbing him. Um, I get what you're saying, but I could easily say that Leo DiCaprio doesn't need to be there because he's definitely not winning. You know, um, Joe Edgerton doesn't have one. You know, Wagner Mora, Ethan Hawk, Timothy Shaloman doesn't have one. You know, Leo DiCaprio is not winning. You know, not only does he already have an Oscar, it's an ensemble, you know, it's not as showy. They might think it's very much in the realm of what they already nominated him for, for you know, uh uh once upon a time in Hollywood, you know, that sort of kind of you know uh uh comedic, you know, but still poignant presence. Um really, you know, uh Leo DiCaprio doesn't need to be on the list either, right? So, you know, like I said, I think it's way too drastic to think of a complete snub. And I'd have to see how the rest of the season uh uh unspools. I think I would start to smell what you're smelling if he loses the golden globe. But at this moment, you and I both know how this works. There's a lot of mechanization, a lot of machinery in the background, pulling the strings, pushing the narrative, pushing the moment. And right now he's got the backers and he's got the momentum. You know, could that be enough to win him the Academy Award? Possibly not. That happens all the time. Um, but would could it be enough to come would it not be enough to even get a nomination? That I'm a little bit less certain of.

SPEAKER_03: 3:39:02

I mean, side unseen, we had said that while everyone is looking at Timothy Chalamet, the performance to sort of be aware of is Wagner Mora, and that while he may be the favorite, Wagner Mora is the dark horse here, could get a Golden Globe win, and could maybe be the only sizable threat to Timothy Chalamet. Months have passed, and I feel now we have seen it. And looking at that, I feel like Wagner Mora evens out a little bit more with him just by the virtue of the secret agent is no longer the best kept secret. It is a surefire best picture contender right now, and it's gonna have a tough time being kicked out of that top ten. After tonight, I don't think that Timothy Chalamet is the favorite anymore. I think it's gonna be a dogfight between all of them, all these people, um, to score that nomination, and between some of them to score that win. Um and after that speech, I'm saying that he's no longer heads and shoulders in his positioning against. the other nominees there, the other contenders in his category, the among these other six, excuse me, these other five contenders, that he is as um stable and as vulnerable as any of them. I'm I I I feel like this is the performance that despite all the fireworks that's going around around with you know critical acclaim and box office success and this recent win, I kind of feel this train going the opposite direction than it should be. He's getting he's getting less competitive, not more competitive.

SPEAKER_01: 3:40:32

I mean I I mean like I said that that that's an interesting point but I'm not ready there. I'm not ready to say I'm not ready to be on that side of of of the bridge and say yeah he's gonna get snobbed I'd have to see more things than just a poor speech. But I do think that the revolving factors around him you know more than the performance itself or rather more than the film or the performance all the things around him not helped by the fact that it's an unlikable character but all the things around him I think are possibly the undoing here I mean of a win.

SPEAKER_03: 3:41:03

We'll see what happens.

SPEAKER_01: 3:41:04

I there's there's about a month left um but I think not for nominations not for nominations because nominations will be soon in fact I think voting already started I had to check that um and like I said he's got the momentum he does have the momentum what he might lose in the end is enough of a reason to give him the win over someone like Ethan Hawk over someone like Ragnar Mora um over someone like Joe Aderton uh even though I think Joe Anderton is you know low on low on that poll um for for a win uh I think that can change but I think it's a little bit too late to change the wins of a third Timothy Chalamet performance.

SPEAKER_03: 3:41:46

To me I feel the opposite I feel we're getting if voting has started that means most people are watching the film and if most people are watching the film I don't think this is a performance that's going to win over many. It's going to be respected by many. It might even be admired by many but I don't think there's going to be too much passion for it because Marty Mauser is just unfortunately too off putting of a character. That's what I'm thinking. As more people watch it that'll come more into play.

SPEAKER_01: 3:42:16

Well we'll see what happens I'm not ready to be there but let's see what happens. Let's see how how the rest of the season uh evolves evolves. Yeah correct and I think we'll get our first taste of that is uh if on on on Golden Globes to see you know if he loses that best actor comedy musical because he should win he should that should be a hands down one he should be winning that so we'll see 100% yeah all right um well that concludes a very uh lengthy episode but we had a lot to go through for uh you know this week it's gonna be packed with things and the golden globes are coming up the critic story just finished the sag will start revealing its cards um and yeah there's a lot going on be sure to keep checking our website framesandflicker.com and our twitter at academy anon both of them are on the cover the cover art and yeah this is Jules and this is Joseph and it's been a pleasure see you next time if you've been enjoying the Academy Anonymous podcast and want to support the work we're doing there's a voluntary support link in the show notes.

SPEAKER_03: 3:43:20

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SPEAKER_01: 3:43:23

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