Oscar Season 2025-2026: Golden Globe Reactions | Our Final Oscar Predictions for: CINEMATOGRAPHY, PRODUCTION DESIGN, EDITING, COSTUME DESIGN, SCORE, SONG, ANIMATED FILM & FOREIGN FILM

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• The DGA reveals the top five favorites for the Oscars Best Picture race
• SENTIMENTAL VALUE gets shutout at the Screen Actors Guild Actors Awards
• Cinematographers prefer MARTY SUPREME over HAMNET
• WEAPONS, F1 fly at the Producers Guild Awards while AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD flop
• BUGONIA staging a major Oscar comeback with impressive showing at British Academy’s BAFTA Awards
• Final predictions for Best Animated Feature
• Dreamworks’ THE BAD GUYS 2 and Pixar’s ELIO duel for final spot in Animated Feature race
• Can French animation rule at the Oscars with ARCO, LITTLE AMELIE and A MAGNIFICENT LIFE?
• Final Predictions for Best Original Score
• Decoding the connection between Best Picture and the Original Score category
• MARTY SUPREME beat too new age for Oscars’ music branch?
• F1 and SIRĀT likely enemies across Oscar categories, face-off for final slot in Original Score
• Final Predictions for Best Original Song
• Stephan Schwartz to finally get back into Song race with WICKED: FOR GOOD
• Double nominations for SINNERS for Original Song?
• Diane Warren hunts for first competitive Oscar win
• Final Predictions for Best Costume Design
• A loophole in the Costume category might leave a Best Picture favorite on the outs
• HEDDA and KISS OF THE SPIDER WOMAN targeting an upset
• Final Predictions for Best Production Design
• AVATAR: FIRE AND ASH and WICKED: FOR GOOD duel for scraps among production design favorites
• Final Predictions for Best Cinematography
• Not enough space for Best Picture frontrunners FRANKENSTEIN, MARTY SUPREME and HAMNET
• Final Predictions for Best Film Editing
• Breaking down the “veteran” issue smothering the film editing category
• F1 to test editor’s love for racing films
• Final Predictions for Best International Film
• NEON films tries to wrap up the rare perfect category with ALL 5 nominations!
• Venice Film Festival and THE VOICE OF HIND RAJAB to haunt the fate of NO OTHER CHOICE

Chapters

• 2:28 The Oscar Race As It Stands Today - Fallout from the DGA, SAG and PGA nominations; Golden Globe Champions; British Academy preview BAFTA favorites
• 29:29 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST ANIMATED FEATURE nominees
• 43:10 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST ORIGINAL SCORE nominees
• 1:09:04 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST ORIGINAL SONG nominees
• 1:25:19 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST COSTUME DESIGN nominees
• 1:54:37 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN nominees
• 2:09:27 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY nominees
• 2:25:37 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST FILM EDITING nominees
• 2:53:12 Final Oscar Predictions - BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM nominees

Transcript

SPEAKER_01: 0:14

Hey everyone, and welcome to a new episode of the Academy Anonymous podcast where we're covering all the Oscar news, all the updates on the Oscar race, and we're giving you um our takes on Oscar predictions. Um, it's great because Oscar voting has officially begun. This is the week. It began on Monday. It's gonna run through the week. Um, we're gonna have a great series of episodes. We're gonna rally and give you final predictions for all the categories so you can fill out your ballot and and make your best um uh conjecture as to what the final five will be. Um and yeah, I've got a lot of exciting stuff to talk about. It was a really eventful week last week that was capped off with the Golden Globes. Um, as always, I'm your host, Joseph.

SPEAKER_02: 0:56

And I'm Jules and welcome. Glad to have you guys here again. Um, just a quick note off the top make sure to check out our website, framesenflickr.com. We've been updating our predictions uh for the uh Oscar uh 20 top 24 categories uh constantly. So that's always fluctuating. There's always predictions up there with precursors and whatnot, especially post globes. And also check out our uh Twitter account, which is at Academy Anon. Both the website and the Twitter are are on our cover art for the podcast.

SPEAKER_01: 1:28

And before we get started, um let's just take a moment to express our condolences to um the friends, family, loved ones of the Hungarian uh Maverick filmmaker Belatar, who passed away a little while ago. Um he was an immensely, immensely tainted filmmaker who left his mark on cinema. Um, you and I big fans of the turn horse. Yes. Um, but just these really um reflective, meditative, stark, um, black and white pieces.

SPEAKER_02: 1:58

He's regarded as a master of slow cinema. Yeah. You know, he's one of the leading figures of um, if not the leading figure of Hungarian art cinema, yeah, you know, and and really one of the greatest arturs um in world cinema.

SPEAKER_01: 2:11

Yeah, and it's it's it's a big loss. Um, we encourage everyone to uh visit their cinema, um, visit visit his cinema. Um, it's it's it's a fantastic, unique experience that'll expand sort of your appreciation for what the art form can do. And so we're really saddened to hear about that. Um segueing into um the discussions we're gonna have. I think, like I said, we're going to rally and have a series of episodes that tackle all 24 um Oscar categories, our final predictions in each, um, where we're seeing there could be a dark horse that maybe leaps into the final five, you know, um, which categories are a little bit more difficult to predict, um, maybe some surprises that we're gonna see. Um, maybe compare that a little bit to what maybe the common uh prediction is at the moment, right? If you look at something like Gold Derby, and so we'll we'll have our take on that because you know, part of the fun is sort of predicting where some of the oversight um is going to occur. Um, that said, maybe the best thing we could do is set the stage for everyone listening in terms of everything that happened last week, which is going to play a part into our and everyone's final predictions. Um, and I think the best place to start is uh the DGA five. The DGA five gave us the five most likely films we're going to see um in Best Picture. You know, the DGA has a history of uh repeating, right? Um, with uh whoever that landed in the directors' guild top five is usually the top five best pictures.

SPEAKER_02: 3:39

And so the nominees were um it was Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, uh one battle after another, Sinners, and Hamnet.

SPEAKER_01: 3:48

Right. And so I think the big headline there, right, was that no international title made it.

SPEAKER_02: 3:53

Which is not very surprising for them. Yeah. You know, they typically it was expected that uh they would snub a foreign language contender, but it ups the uh possibility, I think, that in the sort of predicted five, the consensus five for best director in that category, that possibly we might not be seeing two foreign film contenders landing in that top five.

SPEAKER_01: 4:15

I think you're absolutely right. I think it's important to remember this was a uh uh category, a um group where Anatomy With Fall did not land in the top five. Um, yet we could argue it was a top five film at the Oscars, right? But Amelia Perez did, and so you and I thought there was enough appeal for something like Sentimental Value to land here. That was not the case. Um, it's the first nomination for Josh Safty here, correct? And first nomination for Ryan Kugler, and um, all the other filmmakers have been there before. Um, going off of that, we got the five from the cinematographers guild, the ASC, and there was possibly a very surprising omission. And the first instance we have that of the five, one film is maybe a tiny bit weaker. Weaker than the rest. Um, and so who were the nominees there?

SPEAKER_02: 5:02

Nominees were uh Autumn Durald Arkpaw for Sinners, Michael Bowman from One Battle After Another, Tarius Kanji from Marty Supreme, Dan Lauston for Frankenstein, and Adolfo Veloso for Train Dreams.

SPEAKER_01: 5:14

All right, and so um parting from the DJ of five, Train Dreams scored a nomination here, which was great to see. Adolfo Veloso, we had predicted his nomination here. We had predicted a lot of of these nominees, but we did predict Lucashaw, correct, to make it in for Hamnet, which was the big snub. A big snub, yes.

SPEAKER_02: 5:31

Um, just a reminder, Lucas has appeared in this guild before. He actually won the award in uh 2018 for Cold War, and that also got a uh nomination for Best Cinematography, and he had a special mention uh win, I believe, for Ida in 2014. Right. So, like this showed up here twice.

SPEAKER_01: 5:52

Yeah, so this guild continues their pattern where if Lucas Zhao is shooting black and white, they'll nominate him. If Lucas Zhao is shooting in color, they will not nominate him because he was also snubbed for the zone of interest. Exactly, which you and I would argue is another possibly top five movie at the Oscars. Um, didn't get the DJ, but certainly a strong contender there. Lucas Zhao didn't get the guild nomination there, did not get the Oscar nomination there. So now the discussion becomes does he have enough to leapfrog one of these filmmakers? The big surprise here, right, was Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme.

SPEAKER_02: 6:24

Darius Kanji. Yeah. But it makes sense because this guild really loves Darius Kanji. He has several nominations. In fact, he has almost twice or three times the nominations in this guild, and he does have Oscar nominations. Yeah, that's true. And he's a very revered cinematographer. So it's kind of weird that I believe he only has two Oscar nominations as of as of right now. Um, it's strange sort of lagging behind his guild, which is something to keep in mind when we're considering final predictions for cinematography.

SPEAKER_01: 6:51

Right. And I think also Darius Khan, you remember last time he was at this guild, he was able to surprise and be the solo nomination for Bardo. It was also the year where he got a Lifetime Achievement Award, I believe, um, recognition at this guild. And so, as we said, the discussion becomes can't does Lucashao have enough to get back into the category. Absolutely. Um, going off of that, we had SAG ensemble nominations, and something pretty historic happened that you and I were quick to predict, sort of, um, or to sort of call out um seeing the nominees for the DGA, which is all five nominees for SAG Best Ensemble match the director uh top five for the director's guild award. Last time that happened, 2004, when the nominees across both categories were the Aviator, Million Dollar Baby, Sideways, Ray, Finding Neverland. Here's the caveat the SAG ensemble that year featured six nominees as a result of the tie, and so they had Holter Rwanda um among the SAG best ensemble nominees, did not get a DJ nominee, obviously. But um the point being there that you know it is really telling that consensus has calcified to such a point where these five films are repeating at the SAG at the DGA. You and I having ongoing discussions as to whether that is going to play a factor at the Academy Awards.

SPEAKER_02: 8:12

Yes, and also again, as you were saying, the it's telling that no foreign film has been able to sort of break through that calcification the way that Amelia Perez was last year when it made both. Right. Um, this year, something like Sentimental Value made neither.

SPEAKER_01: 8:26

Because that's the other big headline, right? Which is not only did the SAG ensemble mirror best director at the Director's Guild Award, but no foreign films showed up.

SPEAKER_03: 8:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 8:37

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 8:37

Which isn't that surprising because again, the SAG is not very welcoming to foreign performances if you look at, you know, their past history. So that's not too surprising. It is a little surprising to get completely blanked and not have one nomination, you know, for you know, possibly sentimental value somewhere.

SPEAKER_03: 8:54

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 8:54

Um, I understand possibly it's not getting ensemble, maybe it would miss Renata, you know, something like that. But to be completely blanked is strange. Yeah. But like I said, if you really do look at their history, it's not that strange. And it's certainly a problematic factor about the sag.

SPEAKER_01: 9:09

Right. And so we not only had uh the um more international performances from Sentimental Mist, but Al Fanning did not show up either, um, which could be troubling. Um, this could possibly become a thorn on the side of any narratives for a win from any of the actors. Possibly, this could be something we revisit as we discussed.

SPEAKER_02: 9:26

It reminds me a little bit of how I I wouldn't I wouldn't go so far because it reminds me a little bit of how Regina King missed for if Beast You could talk and she still ended up winning the Oscar. So I think it would be more damning. It's it would be more damning for a lead contender. Yeah. So not fatal, but not great necessarily. Yeah, I think I think supporting contenders might be able to get past that.

SPEAKER_01: 9:46

Right. Certainly lead actors wouldn't. And it certainly, you know, that goes um into the idea that we saw this happen in lead actor also because Lee Biangen didn't make it in, but the fate one of the favorites, um, Wagner Mora, did not make it in, yeah. The secret agent either. Right. Um, and some foreign films do get in here, like it's worth saying that Marion Cottiard got in here for LeVian Rose, and she was nominated again for Rust and Bone. Um, Penelope P. Cruz um did get in here for Volverry, even if she didn't get in for Parallel Mothers. That's true. So it's a little bit dicey, but um, suffice it to say, it's yet another bad day for international films, and I would argue an especially bad day for Sentimental Value, because to me, it's again that foreign film that has the ability to cross over. Um, segue that into the Producers' Guild Award where it finally did cross over. And so in the Producers Guild, where we got a review of the 10 favorite films possibly to land best picture nominations. Um, the question became uh, do international titles crack the top 10? Do any of them do it, or is it safer to predict all American titles? At the end of the day, Sentimental Value was the only one to make it, probably by the skin of its teeth, but there were so many correct calls that you predicted, right? So tell us who the nominees were.

SPEAKER_02: 10:56

So the nominees were Begonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, one battle after another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, and Weapons. Now, I think the very interesting thing here that you and I were discussing back and forth is, you know, people were very much expecting blockbusters like Wicked for Good and Avatar 3 to show up here. I was always kind of skeptical because I thought, you know, it's not the first time that we've seen the Producers Guild Awards, which are known to embrace blockbusters often, to kind of go their own way when those blockbusters have underwhelmed. And those films, though they've made money, have underwhelmed. And that's sort of part of their awards narrative. Right. And so it makes perfect sense. And we predicted that weapons would get in. And we also predicted that F1 would get in, um, which are uh successful blockbusters that are also critically acclaimed and well liked. And original films, and original as well. So I think it's pretty damning that a movie like Avatar and Wicked for Good don't get in here, considering again that this is the guild that is most receptive to um blockbusters, the same way that I think it was pretty damning that Wicked for Good only landed one nomination at the SAG after landing four nominations, or maybe four or five, four, I believe, um, at the SAGs last year. So, you know, we're seeing a big downshift for those two blockbusters that I think should echo into the final predictions for the Oscars.

SPEAKER_01: 12:20

And I think that, you know, there's a chance that this is just going to give us more motivation because we called this early, but this all goes into our theory of diminishing returns, right? A film should not be performing as well as its predecessor. And you see that in something like Dune, which goes from double digits down to five nominations and basically survives to a best picture nomination. But you know, Avatar and Wicked for Good are sinking really quick. And so we're not only predicting, you know, best picture snubs, but diminishing returns, it wouldn't make a lot of sense for either of those films to be scoring, you know, five or six nominations based off these showings, you know, because if any place was going to be um a little bit more enthusiastic about um championing them and celebrating them, it would be places like the Producers Guild Award um and places like the Golden Globe, is what we'll talk about next.

SPEAKER_02: 13:11

And I I think it would be odd because I think some people have floated the idea. I think it would be odd for Wicked uh to land, let's say, around five nominations and have as many nominations as Dune part two did that actually did make it into Best Picture. Yeah. You know, um that's kind of odd. There should be a lower number. Yeah. Avatar, the same thing, you know, if it landed four nominations um for Way of Water, it should land even less than that.

SPEAKER_01: 13:35

And sort of, I actually kind of like the comparison you made, I think a few weeks ago in one of the episodes. If if you want to check it out earlier, um you had talked about Black Panther, Welconda Forever. And so Black Panther, Wakanda Forever, the sequel follows Black Panther, which was a huge breakthrough for Marvel and superhero films that got, I believe, eight nominations, Clean Best Picture, Walkanda Forever. Excuse me, seven, Walkana Forever dips, right? And it gets, I believe, five five nominations. Walkanda Forever was nominated at the Producers' Guild Award. Yes. And so that just goes to show you where Avatar, Fire and Ash, and Wicked for Good stand right now in this race. Right. Right. Um, which is kind of the opposite in terms of F1 and Weapons, which have a little bit of momentum now. And let's see if they can capitalize on that, especially F1, because F1 has been doing well across the other guilds, you know, the other tech uh guilds, you know, things like um production design, for example. And weapons hasn't been doing too shabby either. Um, and in fact, it has some steam off the idea that Amy Madagate could win potentially best supporting actress. Um, well, that leads us into um the next thing um to talk about, I think, which is um Golden Globe winners. Let's talk Golden Globe winners really quick. Uh, again, some uh calls that we made a little bit earlier, I think, um, that we were sort of on the money. Um, what did you think? What were some of those maybe shifting moments in the ceremony that maybe we had called?

SPEAKER_02: 14:54

Well, we correctly we got 13 out of 15 correct, which I'm pretty happy about, even though we could have gotten 14 out of 15 because we took a gamble on best screenplay, and we thought that the recent trend has been that the winner for the screenplay category tends not to be a winner for the best film category. And since it felt very obvious that one battle after another was destined to win best film um comedy or musical, they would offer they would uh pounce at the opportunity to give a film not winning something major, uh, you know, a little bit of a bone. So we thought Sentimental Value might win something here in Best Screenplay and possibly start a narrative like Anatomy of Fall, where it became the front runner for screenplay after won the Golden Globe. That did not happen. And in fact, uh PTA won all three screenplay director and uh One Battle One Best Picture, which just goes to show the strength of the film and how that kind of unanimous, you know, sentiment should uh echo into the uh final Oscar telecast. Right. Um, so we didn't get that right by screenplay. Um, and the other one that we did not get right was the very surprise um win for uh the secret agent for foreign film. We thought, as many did, that it would be Jafar Panahi for it was just an accident, if if only to get an opportunity to have Jafar Panahi on stage, you know, um, you know, such a monumental figure in the filmmaking community and such a heroic narrative. You would think that the Golden Globes would want a moment like that in the telecast. They completely walked out empty-handed, didn't win a single thing. Right. Um, so those were the two that we got wrong. We're very, very, very happy about the call for supporting actress. We were one of the few people that predicted correctly that Teano Taylor would win Best Supporting Actress over what the favorite was, which was Amy Madigan from Weapons. Um, I was quite happy about that, and I'll mention something really quick about that, uh, circling back. And we correctly called that the best picture drama was going to go to Hamnet, and it was not going to go to Sinners. Yeah. Um, and the popular kind of belief was that it would be Sinners. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 16:57

Um we kind of felt like the the the award that traditionally this this award, this group would give Sinners is box office achievement, which is when they got on stage. Yes.

SPEAKER_02: 17:07

And uh also the uh it's one of the few moments that we got to see sinners accept an award because they didn't show Sinners winning best score, which is weird, uh which was ridiculous. Um that being said, you could feel the love in the room for um, you know, sinners. Uh so I think that's something to keep in mind going forward. Um and uh going back to supporting actors really quick, I found it very interesting, you know, that we have a uh a weird year where it hasn't happened in a in a in a few years, where uh the winner for the critic's choice and the winner for the golden globe differed. Um that doesn't happen all the time. And in fact, if you go back and you look at the times that it has happened, um there's a little bit of a trend that uh if both of the contenders that ended up winning in those uh uh precursors were you know indeed nominated, they tended Oscar Knight tended to go in favor for the critics' choice winner. So I'm thinking something like, for example, in 2015 when Alicia Vikander won for the Danish girl and Kate and uh Kate Winslett won for uh Steve Jobs um in 2015, uh it ended up going in favor of Alicia Vikander for the Danish girl. Uh a year like 2013 when Lupita Niango won the critic's choice, but Jennifer Lawrence won the Golden Globe, and ended up going leaning towards Jennifer Lawrence for I apologize, ended up leaning towards uh Lupita Niyango for 12 Years a Slave, a year like 2020 when Maria Bacalova won for Bull Rat, but Jody Foster won for Mauritanian. Um Jody Foster wasn't nominated, and so you know that kind of goes to moot a little bit, and and obviously Marie Bacalova didn't win either. But I'm just saying that I found it interesting that when there has been this this you know sort of difference of opinion amongst those two awards, um, it kind of favors sometimes the critic's choice. Uh that's just something to keep in mind. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 19:08

Uh it's kind of interesting also because we had sort of said the idea, Amy Madigan is a previous Golden Globe winner.

SPEAKER_02: 19:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 19:13

And so that might have played a factor, but we had sort of said we want to see a supporting two supporting races, one that acknowledges uh a first-time winner like Deanna Taylor, and one that acknowledges a veteran. Stellan Skarsgard won his second award, right? And you know, that following the huge shutout for sentimental value, that's got to be a win. Yeah, right. Um and we predicted that he would edge out Jacob Ballorty, but again, traditionally, yeah, actors with two Golden Globe nominations, they tend at least one of those actors showak out of victory. This year you had Jeremy Allen White, you had Jacob Ballorty, you had Amanda Seyfried. Um, and all of them walked away empty handed, right? Right. Um, which is not a good thing.

SPEAKER_02: 19:51

All of them had several nominations, had all of them had a couple nominations this year. Um, that doesn't happen all the time. And like I said, I think it was kind of strange to see the globes not. Favor Jacob Alordi just because it kind of feels like a very globe thing to do, you know, award a very, you know, uh up-and-coming, promising young actor. It's very much in their wheelhouse. However, we did feel that after that Critic's Choice win, that I just didn't feel right to have Jacob Alordi win both the Critic's Choice and the Golden Globe. Um, and we also felt like of the of the uh of the group of actor winners, we wanted to see a little bit more diversity. Right. And just Wagner Moore by himself possibly winning um Best Actor Drama wasn't enough.

SPEAKER_01: 20:30

And I think also what's kind of interesting about the Globes, which has a little bit more of a prestige factor, both horror supporting performances do not win versus the critic's choice, which is a little bit more open-minded about that. They do win. And so I think we're it's fun because I think we're on the trajectory to have, you know, actual races in the supporting categories. Um, I think you and I have had some discussion about how after SAG uh nominations, we may actually get a more complicated supporting race because it's not impossible to think with Stanley Skarsgard not there, that that race becomes now. Can Jacob Alordy win, or can someone like Vinicius Torah pull out an upset? And in supporting actress, um, where you do have Teyana and Amy Madigan, it's just a fantastic place to award Wumi Masaku for sinners, which is another beloved movie there. And so we're gonna have fun in the supporting category. So that's we should we could look forward to that. Um, Jesse Buckley again gave a great speech. Rose Byrne walked out with the win, which is great to see. It wasn't a guarantee, but it's you know, Rose Byrne is going to be nominated, which is fantastic, or it sounds very much like she's going to be nominated.

SPEAKER_02: 21:31

Very much she deserves to be nominated, but after the SAG nomination, that felt like a done deal. And now add to that a Golden Globe win uh for comedy and musical. That's just done. I will say that before the ceremony started, you and I were contemplating how important it was for Amanda Safree to win this award. Yeah, because her spot is in much jeopardy because the uh industry as a whole, based on these on guild support, is not responding to the Testament of An Lee, which is not very surprising if you've seen the film. Right. But if you've seen the film, you sue you do see how you know what a powerful performance Amanda Safree gives. And she's more than deserving to be uh mentioned here. However, I think that the film that she's in is is you know tanking her chances a little bit. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 22:14

And so I And possibly mishandled as well.

SPEAKER_02: 22:16

Yes, exactly. And so I really feel uh as uncertain about her Oscar nomination as I've ever felt.

SPEAKER_03: 22:22

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 22:23

Um, and I would right now, you know, if you asked me today and I had to, you know, gun to my head, predict if she's gonna get nominated or not, I would say that I don't think so. Um it's not looking good.

SPEAKER_01: 22:34

Makes sense.

SPEAKER_02: 22:34

It's not looking good, and you know, in her place, and we'll talk about this more as we get uh further into the race. Uh, you know, it'd be interesting to see who takes that spot. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 22:41

Oh, Jabar Jafar Panahi loses international film. That could put a damper on the potential for it. It was just an accident to win the Oscar. Secret agent getting a lot of steam. Um, Wagner Moral walks away with best actor. We had predicted that, but it was a great moment. It was the favorite, yeah. He was the favorite, great moment for him to be on stage and just gives him more ammunition to uh make up that sag snub, right? Um on the other side, Timothy Chalamet continues having momentum. He wins Golden Globe Comedy. Much better speech this time. Oh, much better, much better. Right. I think everyone agreed it was much more comfortable.

SPEAKER_02: 23:11

I wonder if he was much more poised. I think we wrote about it on our Twitter that he'd take notes.

SPEAKER_01: 23:15

Yeah, that he I think his coach helped him review the tape. So that because they they it was a much better this time. Um, I do think that in the room there was just an abundance of enthusiasm for one battle after another. PTA, picture, director, screenplay, not very often can you win all those and then survive to win the Oscar. But it looks like this may be one of the few films that just may be able to. Um, I want to mention, you know, One Battle has had a love fest all season long. Great sag nominations where it leads again and it ties a record.

SPEAKER_03: 23:46

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 23:47

Um, still the narrative to look out for is how many nominations can one battle get at the Oscars? We'll be discussing that over these series of episodes. Um, can it break history in its overall nominations? Can it tie history in acting nominations? Can it break history in acting nominations? I thought something to look out for is when Paul Thomas Anderson wins one of his Golden Globes, he takes a special moment to talk about Regina Hall, who was the first actor to get the script and one of the very first collaborators that he decided on for the project. And she did not get a sack nomination, but it's things like that that are going to keep her in the conversation.

SPEAKER_02: 24:20

I agree 100%. I think that was very smart, and I hope it works out because uh Regina Hall probably is my favorite performance in that film, or second favorite, uh but uh uh so that was nice to see. And I think after that, most things were as expected. K-pop demon hunters had a good night. Yeah. Um, Jesse Buckley, it's over, period.

SPEAKER_01: 24:42

Right done. Um Julia Roberts does name drop Ava Victor's Sorry, baby, which is very much still in the hunt for individual screenplay nomination. So that was really interesting to see. Um, I think Hamnet scores best picture. I think overall, it wasn't the night that the international films wanted. It was just an accident zero sentimental value zero. No, sentimental value two. Oh, excuse me, sentimental value one. No, because it won.

SPEAKER_02: 25:08

Oh, that's right. Yes.

SPEAKER_01: 25:09

Sentimental value one. Yes. It was just an accident zero secret agent two. So it was certainly a comeback after those terrible guild nominations in the states, um, but certainly not, you know, a bulldozing success where uh Panahi can win best director and sentimental value can pull out best picture. Um, but it was a good, it was a bounce back, but it was still, it's gonna be a challenging road for all those titles um looking ahead. And finally, I think um, why don't we finish our summary over what happened last week with a little bit of what we saw from the BAFTA. So no BAFTA nominations yet, but we have BAFTA long list, which is about 10 contenders per category. We get to sort of see the mindset of the voters, who has the momentum right now, what voters are watching, and what they simply are not watching. And I think again, the idea here being that international film's struggling a little bit. Um, the favorites again showing a lot of strength. Um, and so uh who who got the most about the nominations?

SPEAKER_02: 26:10

The most mentions went to PTA's one about after another with 16. Again, there's a there's a pattern here that I expect to carry on into the Oscars. PTA's film Constantly Breaking Records. I think we're leading towards that for the Oscars. Um, then it was Hamnet and Sinners with 14, then it was Marty Supreme with 13, and Bogonia with 12, as well as Frankenstein with 12. And then uh uh Sentimental Value and Wicked um all had both had eight.

SPEAKER_01: 26:42

So it was good to see sentimental value show up with eight, not in double digits yet, but you know, eight isn't too bad. But again, I still feel like what we're seeing is the strength of the DJ 5. You have one battle 16, Sinners 14, Hamnet 14, Marty 13, and Frankenstein 12. It's kind of an interesting way to cut it. Um, I also think it was a great sort of showing for begonia, right? I was not expecting 12 mentions here, and that's something that we have to sort of have in the back of our mind as we start making some of these predictions, because um, at the very least, it is being seen, and it is being seen, you know, 10 times as often as something like the secret agent maybe um being viewed because Wagner Mora did not make the list, for example. Right not a shock, but not great news. Right. Um, sentimental actors showed up except which cannot be a very good sign. No, it isn't, right? Um it was not necessarily a great showing uh for Jay Kelly. Um, I was happy to see Daryl Lindell on that list. Yes. That's something we can talk about later.

SPEAKER_02: 27:44

Um yeah, and keep in mind that center still managed to get a supporting actor nomination at the SAGs. Yeah, it was Mal Caden, but still that's not let's not overlook that.

SPEAKER_01: 27:54

Yeah, that's um I you I think you're absolutely right. Um F1 did pretty well, you know, after that PJ um mention, not in uh Best Picture, I believe, um, but it is all over the place, as did Weapons show up a couple of times. It did not show up, for example, in casting, where it was on the Oscars long list, right? But it showed up in editing, which was kind of an interesting place. Amy Madigan showed up, the screenplay showed up. Um so and I think Surrat didn't have the day that it had for the Oscar short lists, right? Um, as we said, just in general, international films kind of struggled, I think, a little bit more. Um, you know, I Surratt showing up on the Oscar Shorelist for cinematography. Of course, that was not the case at BAFTA. I think one of the most interesting things that I saw was when Yorgos landed in the top ten for director over someone like Yermo Del Toro. I think that gives me something to think about, right?

SPEAKER_02: 28:49

But I think there's still a certain set of rules for director that are different, I think, from the acting categories, for example, that I still think that they're trying to include five men, five women, something like that.

SPEAKER_01: 28:59

I do believe that's the case, but they do take the the most popular of the five. Right, right. So it did so happen that in Best Director, one would believe that Yorgo's outranked Guillermo, which was interesting. Very um, another kind of interesting thing that we saw there in that category is we saw a mention for Katra Benhanya for the voice and humor job, which was really fascinating to see. Um, and uh Voice and Humor Job also shortlisted for uh international film there. Um, so that's something to keep an eye on as well. Um all right, and I think that that finally sets us up to talk about um final predictions for the Oscar nominations, first batch of categories, and I think we have both decided to start in a fun place category that's not completely up in the air, but has some question marks surrounding it. And let's start with best animated feature. Um so I think the consensus here is that we have um about uh three films that I think are pretty solidified. Uh, and that is obviously the success of K-pop, which is really angling for the win here. Um uh kind of interesting because this is sort of a revisit of the collaboration for Sony uh animation and Netflix. They did Matrils Versus the Machines. I think the one hiccup here is that people have talked about K-pop not being shortlisted at the BAFTA for animated feature, and then that might be a complication for the win, but it should not complicate the nomination. Um, I think at the Annie Awards, right, which is the guild for um uh professionals in the animation industry, um, it had a leading, I believe, 10 nominations, and that's a really good showing. Um, Zootopia 2, right, for Disney is something we should be expecting. Yes. Um and um I think the the next spot might not be a film um that is super popular for the win, but it was sort of a standout in terms of you know, um a critic's darling and more of an art house film, and that's Arco.

SPEAKER_02: 30:55

Arco.

SPEAKER_01: 30:56

Um and premiered at Can. Which premiered at Can and it was it was bought uh by Neon, um, Natalie Portman's executive producing that. Um, so it doesn't seem like it's in the conversation for the win, and I don't think it's walked on with many wins um in you know in general. Yeah, um, I remember it it sort of lost the uh Los Angeles Film Critics for Association to another film out of Can. Um, but it should have enough. And Neon has been in this category before with uh Flea and Robot Dreams. Yes. Um and so after that, um, we have two spots, and um it's interesting because I think the the next likely contender is probably little Emily.

SPEAKER_02: 31:40

Yes, I believe so. I I agree with you. I think it was mentioned at the Golden Globes, it was mentioned in the BAFTA long list. Um, it was also actually mentioned in the BAFTA children's list, which I think that that overlap is is uh indicative or might be. It did do well at the Annies, um and Annecy is also something that we should discuss a little bit. You know, it did well there as well.

SPEAKER_01: 32:03

Yeah, so it I believe it won the Audience Award uh at Annecy, which is a big deal, and that's for example something that Memoir of a Snail from Australia won. And so that's a good sign. Um, the Annecy Crystal um went to Arco. And so, like last year, last year's Crystal Winner, Flow and Audience Winner, Memoir of a Snail made it in. I think we're thinking that this year that will repeat. Even if I will say one of the complications here is just the idea that both of these films have a French background. I wonder if that'll be an element. And the other thing is that G Kids has had a little bit of a dicey history, right? Because their last nomination was for um the latest Hayo Miyazaki film, um, Boy and the Heron in 2023. But other than that, they've had a huge dry spell. So they've sort of been like G Kids can get in as long as they write the coattails of Studio Ghibli. Um, but without that, they've had a tough time. Before that, the last, you know, studio Ghibli film that they got in for, um, excuse me, the last film that they got in for that was not a studio Ghibli film was Um Mirai. Um and so it could be a little bit dicey. Um we've seen it and we think that the animation is strong, but some of the storyline, we wonder if just the fact that they're also, you know, filmmakers who are just starting in the positions of of director and writing, if that may be a factor as well. Could it open it to us now, possibly. Right. Um, and those filmmakers, you know, have some history in working in projects, for example, like I Lost My Body, which was nominated. Um, but just is the mix between them being, you know, um, filmmakers that are less established, it being a more ambitious storyline that may not be the easiest for voters that sometimes just vote for whatever they took their kids to. Um, and the fact that it's G Kids and it's an additional French film, if these are things working against it. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 33:55

And also I think that's something worth considering when we're talking about the animated feature category is the rules have changed um in a way where the I think the category is open to more voters than ever. Exactly. Which I think lends itself to being a very populist list. As you were saying, yeah. What did I bring my kids to? Right.

SPEAKER_01: 34:13

What did I watch? Absolutely. That's part of the danger here. Um, but I think what is helping it is possibly, you know, a lack of competition this year. I think it should, it's important to mention that we should have, you know, blockbusters, films that cater to family and children, um, and that are success were successes at on the global uh scale and the US scale. But you should also have arthouse films. You know, we love Memoir of a Snail and that got in, um, you know, Flea, Robot Dreams. These are films that have that sort of international clout. They don't make a bunch of money, but they, you know, they're just emblematic of the industry, the animation industry um throughout the world.

SPEAKER_02: 34:51

And yeah, and last year I think we we saw that with you know memo memoir of a snail getting alongside getting in alongside a film like Flo.

SPEAKER_01: 34:59

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 34:59

You know, so so I I don't think this film is impervious to having that sort of foreign influence. Right. But like as you said, there's always a danger that it becomes, you know, just populist.

SPEAKER_01: 35:09

Right. And I I I will say that um we're also seeing um I think less competition in this category because one thing that has sort of stood out um throughout the years is that films that don't have much of an imprint at uh the Annie Awards, again, the Guild for the uh animation professionals, um, they don't tend to make it in. And so, for example, one film that's really sort of, I think, a dark horse here is something like Demon Slayer, um, which would be pretty historic for an anime. Um, it's made a bunch of money um across the globe. Um, it's got Crunchyroll uh and and Sony behind it. Umx office success here in the fall when everything was sort of flopping. Yeah, um and it got that PGA nomination, which was fantastic, and it got a Golden Globe nomination, which is fantastic, but it didn't score the Bath to Long List, and it made the Bath to Long List. Um but it didn't score a single nomination at the Annies, and we haven't seen that happen, where a film can go from zero Annie nominations to um a nomination in in this category, and and and that killed so many movies, not just Demon Slayer, but you look at movies, for example, like Boys Go to Jupiter and Endless Cookie, you know, two more fringe festival films that got independent spirit award nominations. Bill Plimpt has a title, but it didn't get any nominations either. Um, there are just so many films that that missed it this year. Um, just and just a few that got, you know, scraps here and there. Something like the Twits got a one or two fixed, um, Stitchhead, um uh In Your Dreams. Olive in the Clouds. Yeah, but Olive in the Clouds is one of the few sort of uh art house international titles um to score a nomination. So you would think that if there's gonna be an international title to maybe watch out for, it could be uh Olivia in the clouds. Um but again, just the the anti snubs for all these films were just really a killer. Same thing with something like David from Angel, which did really well at the box office. Um, so looking at that, I think um Little Amelie should should keep its spot. Um a couple of films that did get anti-nominations but have just underperformed everywhere are two veterans, um, which is um Scarlet premiered at Venice but has not taken off at all. It got an anti-nomination on the independent side, writing and directing. That's not a surprise because his previous film, Bell, um, got those mentions too and still failed to get a nomination. And then um the the great Steven Shalmay um for a magnificent life, right? Right, um, which also went to Can in a special screening. It got the Annie Independent. It got the Annie Independent. Um, but it went to Can. It was sort of um overshadowed by these other two films, but he has never really had an animation outing that could have been considered for an Oscar that didn't land. So I do think, watch out for that. Um, because this category does favor veterans, and right now with K-pop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie, um Arco, we have an abundance of filmmakers getting in for the first time. Um, Zootopia 2 is like the exception where the filmmakers have been there before. Um, but maybe the fact that Sylvan Chaume, whenever he animates and is in contention, he gets in, that could end up working in his favor. But again, I don't think there could be three French titles. So it's sort of he could leapfrog something like Little Amelie, possibly. Um, but I'm not sure so many classics that's done a good job with it. And again, he's it's just clear that it's his least beloved of all his films, all his feature-length films, um, and that audience you know, critics um and audience, I would suppose, um, prefer the other two French films. Yeah, um, which leads me to sort of believe that the last spot is really between two, again, as you said, popular films, right? Which is uh Bad Guys Two from DreamWorks, which has sort of um done better than expected, and Elio from Disney Pixar. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 39:04

Um, both of which, well, for example, Elio was not a success at the box office. Bad guys two did a little bit better than Elio did. Um, and interesting, interestingly enough, you know, the veteran for Elio, this filmmaker has been there before, you know, with Bao in the short film category and then turning red also. Um yeah, I wonder if that could be a hindrance. Yeah, a detriment. Right. In that, you know, she's already shown up uh a few times, yeah, and they'll think that they want to uh, you know, is a third nomination sort of is it too early, considering that you know, there is a little bit of reputation here that Pixar has struggled lately, right?

SPEAKER_01: 39:44

And so Elio not only makes less money, um, but it's it was not embraced at all by audiences. And like everyone knows sort of the troubled history that Elio was supposed to come out in 2024, and they delayed it, they had to recut it and and do some work on it narratively. And so much so that, like I said, just the audience did not show up in America. And so, like, I think it's a film that basically brought Pixar to its knees. Can they really pick up a nomination? Yeah, well, they want to reward that. Exactly.

SPEAKER_02: 40:10

But also, it has done well in the precursors because it got the Globe, it got the PGA mentioned, it got the BAFTA long list mention alongside the BAFTA uh children's film mention. And it did well at the Annies.

SPEAKER_01: 40:20

I mean, it's high K-pop at the Annies for 10 nominations. I think that's no small thing. I I don't think so. Um I think that's major.

SPEAKER_03: 40:27

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 40:27

Um, that being said, I don't think there's many times where Disney gets two in this category and loses. And so is that going to be a factor, sort of knowing that, you know, the idea here is that this is K-pop's to lose. Right. And if that is the case, is it going to hurt the narrative of Disney getting two in here? Um now what I will say about um about Elio is while there exists the question of is it too soon for a third nomination for that filmmaker? And and it's it's it's co-directed by another filmmaker um who got nominated for a short film, I believe, as well. We do need veterans here. And everyone else is sort of new. Um, because the bad guys to filmmakers, they're they're new filmmakers that haven't been uh recognized in this category before. And so I'm thinking that that may be the reason why the category breaks for them alongside of the things that you're saying, it's done well in all these other places. It just did well at the Visual Effects Society in the animation section. And so clearly people in the industry find a lot to champion about it and respect about it. Um, I think maybe the thing going for bad guys too is it has certainly done better than bad guys one. Yeah, like just in terms of its reception at these places like the Annie Awards, where it's up for best feature, um, and um at BAFTA where it has a chance to make it into the final and it got PGA nomination. Um and the money is not great for DreamWorks, but it's not as bad as Elio. Yeah, um, but maybe also this idea where is the whole snub for the wild robot and DreamWorks still a little bit fresh? And do we sort of say, let me nominate DreamWorks again, even if they're gonna lose this category, because I sort of like the trajectory that the company is going in, um, as opposed to putting Disney in twice. Right. That may be a factor. And so it could be that we're seeing a fight between those quote unquote populist films that are nowhere near as successful as K-pop for that final fifth spot, and possibly a worst-case scenario that both of them get in and out muscle something like Little Amelie. Yeah, um, which would be a little bit sad to see because a more imaginative film. Um, but so I think so. What do we settle on for our final predictions?

SPEAKER_02: 42:40

So for animated feature, our final predictions are K-pop Demon Hunters, Zootopia 2, Arco, Little Amelie or the character of Rain, and Elio.

SPEAKER_01: 42:49

Right. And then keep an eye out for Bad Guys 2.

SPEAKER_02: 42:52

Absolutely. And I would also keep an eye out for, as you were saying, a magnificent life.

SPEAKER_01: 42:56

Yeah, uh, could happen. And um, I mean, Scarlet, not totally out of the realm of possibility, but you know, I really question if either of those films have enough to to for this last little sprint. We'll see.

SPEAKER_02: 43:10

Okay, and now moving on to the next category that we'll be predicting and giving our final predictions for, and that's original score. And we have a short list here, which makes things a little bit easier. A little nicer. A little nicer when we have a tiny little group to choose from, right? Um, as opposed to like, you know, a world of films. Right. Um, and there's some things that are a little bit tricky about this category that we'll be getting into. I think it's safe to say that Sinners um is the front runner in this category and in no danger, hopefully, of uh missing this category. I also want to point out that a film like Frankenstein, Alexander's Desplah, is very much uh decorated uh by the Academy, but he uh especially tends to get nominated when his films are nominated for Best Picture. Yeah. And considering that Frankenstein is such a big Oscar contender, that should be a safe nomination as well for Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_01: 44:03

And that's actually the first time that Despla will return since his nomination in 2019 for Little Women, which is kind of interesting.

SPEAKER_02: 44:10

Exactly. Um, and then I want to say that at least it's predicted um that one battle after another should show up here too. Johnny Greenwood score. Um uh it's it's it's very prominent in the film. Johnny Greenwood has been here before.

SPEAKER_00: 44:25

Um finally broke through with uh Phantom Threat for Paul's film. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 44:30

Right. Um it uh a gun eye for the Golden Globe, it made the BAFTA long list mention. Um the sour so the Society Composers uh organization was it was also decided there. Um that seems like a pretty safe bet for original score. Do you think it's in any danger of possibly missing?

SPEAKER_01: 44:46

I mean, I guess maybe if they feel like that's enough nominations for Johnny Greenwood, he has two right now. He has when he broke broke out for Phantom Thread and then he got in for Power of the Dog, but seeing how sort of beloved one battle is just across all the branches and um film community and across the disciplines, um, it makes me feel like it's in no danger here. That in fact it's it's more likely to have the discussion of can Johnny Greenwood win as opposed to can Johnny Green would miss.

SPEAKER_02: 45:12

Right, exactly. And I think that's kind of where it stops being easy and it gets a little tricky. Right. Um, and so I want to say that a favorite to get nominated here. Uh Max Richter composed the score for Hamnet. Max Richter is one of our favorite composers. He's certainly one of mine. I listen to him all the time. He has never been nominated, even though he's been shortlisted a few times. You got a history here though, right?

SPEAKER_01: 45:35

Yes. Um I mean, famously, you know, his track was used in survival. Right. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 45:43

Right. Um, we'll be getting into that. But first, I just want to mention that in the precursors, it has done well, very well. I got an eye for the Golden Globe, it made the Bafto Longlist, the Society Composers Organization was it was cited there as well as the Hollywood Music and Media Awards. Those are good places to be cited in. Um, the issue with, as you were mentioning, the issue with Hamnet is um while it does have an original score that's very prominent in the film, the most pivotal moment in the film is underscored with his very, very iconic, popular uh musical composition um in the nature of the nature of daylight. Um if you haven't seen the film, sorry for spoiling that.

SPEAKER_01: 46:24

Um, I mean, you don't know, we're not saying what moment, but we are we are saying they use a song that has been featured across many a film already. And has even been featured in a past best picture nominee.

SPEAKER_02: 46:35

And derailed its chances score. And that film was a rival, and uh very famously that score was disqualified. It could not uh make the cut. Um, and again, that score, the nature of daylight from Max Richter, is used very prominently in arrival, and it's used extremely prominently here, um, and again, a very pivotal moment, probably the most important moment of the film. I wonder if that's something that will be a detraction for this branch, for the music branch, the fact that such a such a such a crucial moment is, you know, uh, you know, pinned to this musical composition. Right. Um, or will that be a re in a way a reminder that this is a composer, a gifted composer, one of our greatest composers, contemporary composers, that has yet to receive a nomination and should certainly have a nomination by now. Right. And this is an opportunity to nominate him. I I also want to point out, sorry, really quick, is that um the rules uh that uh affected, I believe we read, I believe we read this, that the rules that affected a rival's chances of being nominated was disqualified. Um, those rules have changed and have, you know, uh very little bearing here. Right. Um, I think it's uh I think the rules now is that I think only like 35% has to be original music.

SPEAKER_03: 47:54

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 47:54

And you know, that was not the case in 2016. So there's no danger. Uh obviously the film hasn't been um the the score hasn't been disqualified, but I also think that that goes to show that maybe perhaps that's not as big a deal to this branch anymore.

SPEAKER_01: 48:09

Anymore, exactly. I I think obviously this is important because there were, you know, articles and editorials and headlines written about it that yes, the score for Hamnet does qualify. And I will say, um, in defense of the um the nomination and um the film, that while that song is used rather prominently, the the other work in the film is also um very singular. Yeah, it stands out from everything else that Max Richter has done and really sets the tone for the film. Absolutely. Um that said, if there is a snub, we will be revisiting this topic, right, as to whether that derailed yet another movie. Um, but I do think, right, we're sort of siding with the idea that Max is finally gonna get in here, that he's in the right vehicle, right?

SPEAKER_02: 48:55

Right, that it's about time to embrace him into this group.

SPEAKER_01: 48:57

Right. And Hamnet is just too much of a favorite.

SPEAKER_02: 48:59

Yeah, right. Um And then there's also, again, even though that crucial moment is, you know, uh accompanying, you know, that that musical piece accompanies that crucial moment, there's as you were saying, a very there's there's enough original work here that you know you can't say the film is just that musical, that musical moment. Right. Um very lovely score.

SPEAKER_01: 49:19

No, I I think it's really well used. I think you're right. This is finally going to be his breakthrough, which often happens, right? Sometimes these filmmakers who have these amazing careers and have never gotten their flowers, they just happen to get onto the right project um that crosses that bridge. So I remember when Carter Burwell remember finally got that nomination for Carol after like years of amazing work, all with the Cohen brothers, for example. Um, he finally got that nod. And so I just think that you're right. It's it's it the work is strong in the best actress front runner in a film that got 14 baths, a long list mentions. I expect him to show up here.

SPEAKER_02: 49:53

Yeah, let's hope. You know, like I said, he's one of the great, certainly in my mind, and it'd be nice to see him finally get embraced. But again, as you said, I don't think it's a slam dunk.

SPEAKER_01: 50:02

No, I will say that this I think leads us to really the the really interesting place where this category lands, and it we're gonna revisit it throughout the uh the entire you know final predictions, but this is the first place where it comes into um into effect is just the idea that we have four best picture nominees in this category so far. We got Sinners, Frankenstein, One Battle, Hamnet, four best picture nominees, four of the DJI five. Right, right, and the final DJA movie is Marty Supreme, which also has had a lot of um accolades for its score. And right now it's a favorite to get that last spot, right? Um uh which would be the first nomination, right? For one a point, one-a point, yeah. Exactly. Um, but I think what we've sort of seen, right, in our analysis is that this category should not line up exclusively with best picture movies, right? Right. We haven't really come across that, you know, since since when? I believe the nineties. Yeah, I think it was like 1998. Yeah, and and you know, asterisk 1998 was the last year that they had 10 nominees in this category because there used to be one for comedy or musical and one for drama. Exactly. And so 1998, when you had Shakespeare and Love and Saving Private Ryan and Life is Beautiful, and all those films sort of make it into score. Um, the same thing with '97, for example, you had a comedy category and a drama category.

SPEAKER_03: 51:31

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 51:31

As long as there's only been five, you've always had films show up that were simply not best picture movies, right? Whether it's something like Encanto or something like Soul or something um like The Good German, you know, like Passengers Scandal, Passengers, exactly. Um, so I do think that you know, the the predicted five from the consensus right now is the four we've stated and Marty. But that's a problem, right? Because that's that's five best picture movies, and we already sort of that we don't that's not the trend. That's a huge rip in history. Yeah um we don't like it. That being said, it foregrounds this issue. Are we living in a moment? Are we in a particular year where the five favorite films are so head and shoulders above every other film that we're just gonna see the same five repeat repeat across category after category after category because the international films cannot catch up, and because other films, for example, like F1 or Weapons, are just not gonna be able to edge them out as movies that these voters, you know, when they vote for a category, they're not just voting for the best job, but they're also voting for what they think is the best film, you know, it's not gonna be able to edge them out. Um, that's something that we're going to revisit over and over and over again is are we gonna see the DJ five just show up time and time and time again? Right. Um now, if we side with history, that should not be the case, and that should certainly not be the case in original score. Right. And we're thinking right now that that will not be the case and that one of them will miss. And I think our money is on Marty.

SPEAKER_02: 53:01

Yes. Um, I you know, it on paper it makes sense for Marty to be nominated because obviously the score is foregrounded in that film. Um, you know, uh it adds to a lot of the texture that's in the film. We're thinking that possibly because the score has a sort of anachronistic sort of uh quality to it, that that might be something that is uh uh uh unattractive to some mute members in the in this music branch, um, that it doesn't necessarily follow alongside parallel to the time period in which the Marty Supreme film uh is set at the 1950s, um, that that might be a point of contention, possibly. Also, this is a composer that has uh, you know is relatively new to them, you know.

SPEAKER_01: 53:45

It's not they have not been exposed to them.

SPEAKER_02: 53:47

And also relatively new to composing for in general. Um, that all those things might make him the more vulnerable contender of these five. Right. Um, but we also have a few issues when we talk about score and predicting this category because the same way that that pattern that we've been saying exists, there's also a pattern that typically the five nominees shouldn't come from, from example, the Golden Globe.

SPEAKER_03: 54:12

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 54:12

Uh the Golden Globe, in other words, the Golden Globe shouldn't have the five nominees.

SPEAKER_03: 54:16

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 54:16

Um, and as well, the PGA, yeah, you know, the Producers Guild shouldn't have the five nominees either.

SPEAKER_01: 54:23

Because again, this is just a category that has sort of a history of um just welcoming different types of movies. So whether it's, for example, the go to John Williams getting in for a Star Wars film or Indiana Jones or um Justin Herwitz getting in for Babylon, which failed to get a PGA mention, right? Um, there's just there's consistently been a gap in this category where a spot belongs to a film that is not a best picture movie, that is not necessarily a Golden Globe nominee. That is not a top contender for best picture. Not a PGA nominee. Yeah. Um, you know, but maybe this category is going through a weird moment. Like typically in the sh in the long list for this category at the Oscars, you'll see some animated films, and animated films do well here. This year there were no animated films, right? You had said that the the music from Arco was beautiful, maybe Zootopia can get in there. Neither of them got in. And so maybe this is just a weird year. And with that being the case, Marty can still sneak in, but we think that there's just too much history going against it.

SPEAKER_02: 55:21

I also think that if you look at the films that were shortlisted, there's not a lot of quote unquote quotes that they might kind of reserve for that kind of open spot, the same way that they would with, for example, for John Williams, who got nominated a couple years ago for Indiana Jones, and people didn't really see that coming.

SPEAKER_00: 55:37

Yeah, he'll get nominated for almost anything.

SPEAKER_02: 55:38

Yeah, he'll get nominated for literally everything everything. Um uh there is not a lot of people here. There's actually a lot of new composers um and uh or or composers that would be on their second or third nomination um in films that are not amongst the you know the top films. Um one of the I basically we solidified this into a uh fight for this last spot between Marty Supreme, which we've already delineated, you know, the issues there, F1, which is Han Zimmer, who has 12 nominations, as maybe not John Level's, I mean John Williams level yet, right? But certainly a very respected composer within the music branch and the industry. Um so a fight between those two and the third person, the third contender being Surrat, which did very well in the American long lists, um, uh, but did not do well in the BAFTA long list. And uh also curiously enough, if you've seen that film, the soundscape uh in that film is so is so essential to understanding the film and appreciating the film and unlocking the you know uh depths of that film. Um, that A, it makes sense that it was uh uh it had an impact in the American uh in the Oscar short lists. Um but it's surprising that, for example, at the BAFTA's, where we said it didn't do as well, it actually did not show up in the long list for original score at the BAFTA's.

SPEAKER_03: 57:07

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 57:07

And it was also not nominated for original score at the European Film Awards, despite that film being among the most nominated films of the year. That really sticks out to me.

SPEAKER_01: 57:17

That's weird, you know. Um yeah, that could be a that could be a problem because this year the European Film Awards had nominees, and so they didn't find room for it in the top three spots. Whereas, for example, they did nominate the work of the uh music on Bugonia, which was shortlisted at the BAFTA. And again, at the BAFTA long list, Surrat did not make original score, but it did make casting. So there are members watching this film and responding to it well. Um, it just did not show up in score. Um, the European Film Award miss sort of worries me. I know that, for example, something like All Qui on the Western Front, which had a lot of international support, it didn't get that much for its music, it got it more for its sound design, but um it still managed that Oscar nomination for music. Um, but Volcker was a previous nominee, and so can't uh Kangan Ray, the composer of Surratt, this is one of his first films, you know, very early in his career, does not have many credits. That could end up being something that hurts him. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 58:10

I think of something for but it might also put him on a on a sort of even level with someone like the composer of Marty Supreme. That's not bad, yeah. They're not, they're both not, they're relatively new to his, you know, film space.

SPEAKER_01: 58:22

Yeah, with the exception being that, you know, like Marty Supreme's composer, I remember when someone like um Jerkskin Fendricks gets in for um Poor Things, right? That's one of his very first credits, due. But Poor Things is a nominee in the double digits, which seems more likely for Marty than it certainly seems like for Surratt. So not just the idea that it's easier to break in as one of these brand new composers um when you're in a best picture movie, but when you're in a very highly favorite best picture movie, I think you and I sometimes talk about like when Mika Levy was able to break in here for Jackie without a best picture nomination and with a film that only scored three, right? But Mika was already coming off a BAFTA nomination for Under the Skin.

SPEAKER_02: 59:05

Right, right. And it's you know, again, you know, it's worth mentioning that that uh Jackie did get nominated for uh music at the BAFTAs.

SPEAKER_01: 59:13

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Which Surat cannot. Which exactly Surratt cannot. And so we've had this debate back and forth because then you have this other guy, Hans Zimmer, right, which is maybe the biggest GOAT on the list right now, right? He's no John on the short list, and he's also famously coming from a snub, right? For Dune part two from the disqualification for Dune Part 2, which he took issue with, and he won for Dune Part 1. Yeah, he didn't go to receive it. Yeah, um, at the same time, you know, I remember he was ineligible for Top Gun Maverick. Um, and so he's finally eligible for a reteam with Kaczynski. F1 did well at the PGA. Um, this film also listed in a in song, and we know there's crossover there. And so, can the stars align for him to get back in here?

SPEAKER_02: 59:56

I think it's also worth mentioning that of the 12 nominations, I think. about half of the time Hans Zimmer has gotten nominated uh for best original score when his film, the film that's being nominated, also does well in the sound categories. Right. So there's a correlation there. And F1 is being pegged as a few. And F1 is being pegged as a favorite to get nominated in the sound category. So that's a little worrisome to you know not put F1 when it has these things going for it. Right. And again, Surratt is missing some pivotal things that makes me uh pause and a little nervous. Right. That being said, you know, I think ultimately you and I have sided for Surratt for a number of reasons. Number one, if we had if we uh put F1 then number uh that film still made the PGA and so we get crossover there that we don't necessarily want between the PGA and the original score list. Yeah. Which doesn't usually happen. Exactly. It also got an eye for the Golden Globe. So you you know the same issue you have with Surrat you face with F1. There's no change there. In Surratt's case you have a film that could make the final five and most likely very possibly not be nominated for Best Picture. So we keep that stat alive.

SPEAKER_01: 1:01:11

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 1:01:12

It was not honored for the PGA so that also makes sense. Yes it was still not for the Golden Globe. Again we're kind of going off precedent there uh that that might be an issue but also what I what helped me at least side more with Surratt is that I really feel we're in this moment in time when you know the academy as a whole throughout every department and discipline is shifting and there's this foreign influence and foreign appeal that's ever present, ever growing and you saw that by Surratt having such a performance on these Oscar shortlists even if it didn't have it in the BAFTA. In the BAFTA had it here in the American and so you know I think that goes to show that you know uh the amount of new members and new foreign members that are coming into all branches are having a very potent effect on these uh nominations which I think you know uh foreign foreign voters especially are very are probably very aware of a film like Surratt and uh probably even more so inclined to list it pretty high on their ballot. Right. And as well as you can't watch that movie and not see that the film is contemplating sound and music you know in in such a emphatic manner.

SPEAKER_03: 1:02:34

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:02:34

You know, which I can't help but feel that members of the music department would appreciate. Yeah. You know, for example I know people talk about how you know there's a sort of rave aspect to the Surratt score. Certainly you know that people might say well they didn't go for that kind of similar aesthetic but not totally with last year's um Challengers, you know, which is a very upbeat upbeat somewhat techno score that was snowed even though it was a favorite to get in. But the difference is that you know um I would say at least that the difference between Surrat and Challengers is that Challengers is about tennis and about some other themes, but it's not really about sound.

SPEAKER_03: 1:03:11

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:03:11

And a lot of Surratt is about sound and the soundscape and music you know um that I think could that helps a movie like Surratt where it didn't help a movie like Challengers.

SPEAKER_01: 1:03:22

That's going to sort of resonate to you know the sound adjacent music branch, right? Because the music is you know part of the story you know the same way like the sound the the the sound and the score are characters in the film. I think that's an argument for why it's going to appeal to voters. I do worry about that European Film Award snub for example. That being said there is going to be a group of voters who say it's not really a score for the film it's just music on top of the film. Right. You know music being used by the film but it's you know it doesn't feel like it's music that was necessarily tailor made for every scene moment by moment. And I kind of I think we had the discussion that what we're seeing is you know the first battle of like the car films because you got F1 versus Surrat here. You know two very different I mean journeys by wheels you know what I mean um and and it's gonna be really interesting because I feel like we're gonna revisit this battle in sound where again the conversation is can both of these films get in if only one gets in who has the edge is Surratt more of a sound film and not a score film or is it more of a score film and not a sound film and vice versa for F1 right um so I think that's gonna be fun to look at I think we're siding with Surrat for now but F1 is strong here. The one we're sort of a little bit lukewarm on is Marty getting in here. And again if Marty does get in here I think we may be in store for an announcement that has the DJ5 all over the place.

SPEAKER_02: 1:04:46

Right. And I think some other films that we kind of contemplated that we wouldn't be a hundred percent shocked if they made an appearance is a film like Begonia.

SPEAKER_01: 1:04:55

Yeah um which did well at the BAFTA long lists European Film Award nomination for that actually had a European Film Award nomination um uh that's also a past nominee um so we get some more veteran you know presence in the category that's a film we contemplated um and could possibly uh uh Atticus Ross and Trent Reznor get nominated for Tron Aries which didn't do well critically didn't really do well in the box office either no but they were snubbed for challengers that's right just last year sort of like Hans Zimmer sort of the same kind of narrative where like well we gotta make it up to these to these guys and I think sort of what's interesting is that like again there's these parallels between F1 and Tron Aries because they're both also listed for song right and so we have a couple of opportunities again and Reznor and Ross were listed I believe for both song and score last year for Challengers um you know I do think that there are going to be voters who enjoy the Tron Aries music and Tron Aries I gotta say had a fantastic showing on the short list um because it got listed for um score song and visual effects and so it's very much I think walking you know a path similar to Alien Romulus where it overperforms how many how often you expect to see it and that could produce a surprise nomination somewhere and these composers are respected enough to for that to happen here.

SPEAKER_02: 1:06:19

But we'll but I will also point out that it's worth mentioning just uh you know an extra layer here is that um Trent Reznor and Anarchist Ross they tend to get nominated alongside sound as well. Right. Um right and so that's something that always kept us a little bit you know kind of second guessing the nomination for challengers.

SPEAKER_01: 1:06:36

Yeah um ultimately it didn't happen they didn't get nominated it didn't get on for sound either yeah um so the fact that Tron Aries that short list is really significant especially considering that sound has been the category where the Tron films have been most welcomed. Right. So you're right that could be a bad sign.

SPEAKER_02: 1:06:54

And another uh one last uh composite uh composer that I'd like to mention or film that I wouldn't be a hundred percent shocked and is on my radar I'm just not sure if it makes it in the end is the score for Train Dreams. Um Bryce Dressner um has uh made the short list in the past um he's part of the band of the national if you guys are aware the great band um and uh he's you know had made his foray into films that's been there for a while um and uh you know train dreams is a best picture favorite it's also a film that is a heavy contender in the original song category and it is the kind of score that I think is a very beautiful score among his best um that I could certainly see this branch be you know uh appeal to this branch um but it doesn't really solve our issue about uh best pictures you know the five in the original score being all best picture movies because you're pegging it to show up best picture right and also that you know they could Bryce would be nominated if the film gets nine for song right uh so it doesn't have to be nine for score he doesn't have to be nominated twice but maybe he gets nominated here in score and not song that's possible you know so that's our that's another film to sort of you know uh be aware of right and some other veterans that I will say you know showed up here included the composers of House of Dynamite Jay Kelly um you have uh the composer for Wicked but again they you know he he bugged history by getting nominated last year I don't think that's gonna happen until HETA for example another veteran composer who's a previous winner nominee um they just feel a little bit far so even if this category does welcome sort of tangential films like a good German for example yeah um I I do feel that we're sort of surrounding ourselves with the correct films with our initial conversation not these longer shots I'd be I'd be more surprised about it but again not impossible this film this category does like to include outliers yeah so uh again we we we feel that that last spot is a battle between Marty Supreme F1 and Surratt and right now we're giving the edge to Surrat so our final five for original score are sinners one battle after another Frankenstein Hamnet and Surratt okay and now we're moving on to our next uh category which is best original song and I think this is another category where again there's been a lot of solidified contenders but there are one or two in the final spots that are debatable.

SPEAKER_01: 1:09:19

I think as always with every best original song category the best place to start is with Diane Warren. And can Diane Warren ever be snubbed again? I don't think she's she hasn't been she's been in this category since 2016 I think was the only year that she was not in the five and I don't think she was you know she had a song of contention she was in there for 2015 also but a solid streak since 2017. We're coming up on a decade now she's up for a documentary about her own sort of life um which maybe that could be extra sort of um motivation for the music branch. I will say before you start this conversation remember the music branch votes for both original song and original score. And so that's made out of composers, lyricists, um music editors um so that branch encompasses all those different voting bodies um so she's she's got a documentary um Dan Warren Relentless um I believe um and the song is Dear Me. She already has a career Oscar.

SPEAKER_02: 1:10:19

She won that I believe in 2022 2023 but that has not stopped her from continuing to get competitive nominations and I remember yeah I remember the year where she lost to uh Billie Eilish for the uh 007 song right and you could just see her in the background or she was like very visibly frustrated when she lost and very much I think you could see that she was mouthing like I can't believe they did this to me. I can't believe they did this to me again yeah you know so I think she certainly wants that award um competitive Oscar. Yes I think that that that means something and and you know makes perfect sense. They obviously very much revere her um she's in a sort of John Williams category for original song.

SPEAKER_01: 1:11:00

Exactly um but I just don't think that she ever finds the right vehicle because more often than not if you have a uh that's if you have a best picture film that's in this group that tends to be the favorite for the win the only ones that kind of kind of buck that trend are uh the animated films right that you know they're so popular they they manage to to score a win here yeah and she's usually in conjunction with animated feature right right exactly and so I wanna it's always a question mark if Diane Warren can get nominated again just to lose right you know you know is is you know is it is it a form of torture you know punishment that's really funny you know um but anyway I do you know Kesha would sing the song she's on the track um but I do think that the actual material the idea of it sort of being a portrait of Diane Warren could be a potentially endearing and move voters and sort of say you know there aren't enough freaking um lyricists and Academy War nominees who work in this um branch and in this field who get their documentaries so I'm all for it I'm all for it or it could be the opposite which it feels maybe to some voters self-aggrandizing and maybe like can I really nominate Diane Warren in service of a documentary about Diane Warren you know so I do wonder if it'll play out but I don't think it's ever intelligent to not list her among the final five right a hundred percent that cannot be a smart move a hundred percent and then I think there's at least honestly three other contenders that are looking extremely uh good for a nomination here good shape um very good shape I'll start off with K-pop demon hunters just won the Golden Globe and won the critic's choice Golden I'm a big fan of that song huge huge hit over the summer really huge huge hit you know we all love that song um it's an anthem of sorts I think every time that the composers win this award uh rest original song at least in the last two telecasts they they've made poignant speeches right I think that can only add to the narrative and the possibility that you know voters are going to want to see them on stage.

SPEAKER_02: 1:13:07

Netflix does well here in that house exactly Netflix also does well so K-pop demon hunters K-pop demon hunters is safe for a nomination here. And then I also want to talk about sinners again music being such an important aspect to that film.

SPEAKER_01: 1:13:22

And to Ryan Kugler's films in general. Yes in general um it should easily get nominated here for I lied to you um and uh I think Miles Caton uh is a co-writer on that he actually is not he actually is not okay that's uh I believe Rafael Sadiq Ludwig Orenson again yeah uh miles Caden is actually on the other song oh okay last time I seen a song um but yes certainly I lied to you is the favorite of the two it's the Golden Globe Golden Globe nominee and I think in a different year where there was a little bit less competition because I do feel that this category is competitive um you could see Sinners walking out with two nominations here I would revisit that would make sense I would revisit that for the fifth spot.

SPEAKER_02: 1:14:00

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:14:01

But certainly I lied to you feels like it's right there with Golden like if Golden wasn't there I lied to you would be winning.

SPEAKER_02: 1:14:06

Right right exactly and then uh the uh fourth spot to mention or rather you know I think all of these are are looking pretty firm um is Wicked which should easily get a nomination here for at least uh the song that Ariana Grande sings uh bubble yeah which I think is the better of the two anyway. Steven Schwartz again Steven Schwartz has uh uh been recognized here before um and you know just a quick note on Wicked you know um in terms of sequels in general when you see them pop up you know uh subsequently uh there's a pattern that emerges and that's that the sequel tends to get nominated in areas that the initial one did not you know think about how Black Panther Wakanda Forever is an excellent example because for example like Black Panther it's able to get song um and that's really good but for example um what forever is able to do a little bit better in the category of makeup and visual effects while the first one gets you know something like picture and um production design for and also you know the first one didn't have an acting nomination the second one gets an acting nomination so in a way you know they complement each other in a way like that so where wicked part one um missed an original score because it didn't I mean an original song because it didn't have a contender it'll pick up that category but it will lose other categories.

SPEAKER_01: 1:15:23

Yeah and we talked about it like all season long last year for last season if you want to check out the episodes just the idea of how could Wicked not put an original song in there. They made the correction after you know got all that wonderful acclaim and they say that they said the sequel was going to have original music and so automatically everyone was anticipating that two new tracks go in the bubble more favored um but just that idea where Steven Schwartz was finally able to make history last year um and after a long long time a musical adaptation based on a Broadway musical was able to get into original score for Steven Schwartz he will now and John Powell he will now be able to get a nomination where he's um been more recognized in original songs. So you know he had the song from Pocahontas he had the song from the hunchback of Notre Dame Prince of Egypt I believe Prince of Egypt exactly so he's more familiar in this category he'll finally pick up a song nomination for his work on Wicked. And also in a less competitive year it might even win this category. Exactly it's kind of really fun because between Diane Warren Golden from K-pop I Lied to you from Sinners and the girl in the bubble any other year each one of them could have won. Yeah maybe not Diane Warren because of whatever which is meant to not win whatever masochistic practice the Ampus has going on. But yes that's kind of interesting right so like it doesn't seem like it's in the cards for it to win but this this song looks like it's in good shape for the nomination which leaves one open spot.

SPEAKER_02: 1:16:44

So really I think it's we're just talking about an one spot here that could surprise I'd be very very surprised if any of the four that we mentioned did not get nominated. And so that uh leaves us with a few contenders and like I said there are some good songs here um that in other years I could easily see get in um highest to lowest has a very very moving song that plays beautifully in the film um and uh you know Spike Lee has done well in these musical categories. Again yes so like the same voting bass that gave Black Klansman a nomination for original score and the five bloods its only nomination in original score they're voting and they shortlisted him for that song and so like he's certainly I think you know uh someone who could surprise you right um Sinners as you were mentioning last time I seen the sun which Miles Caden is a co-writer on closes the film.

SPEAKER_01: 1:17:36

Yes closes the film very beautiful song as well and so Miles would get a nomination if they nominate this song.

SPEAKER_02: 1:17:42

Correct right I think something that has uh kind of weaned me off thinking that Sinners would get that last spot is that really Sinners is destined to do so well and so many other categories that it doesn't really need a category like this or two nominations in a category like this to get to the ultimate goal of you know uh 14 Academy award nominations which is the record uh of most nominations by only a handful of films that have done that it doesn't really need a second song to get to that goal in fact maybe a second song might make it break 14 which you know gives me pause.

SPEAKER_01: 1:18:20

That's one reason that I don't like I mean I understand that and I think that may end up being a factor you know if we look at again not just a micro view but a macro view that may come into a factor. But what I will say is that when I see Amelia Perez scoring two nominations and Barby scoring two nominations centers to me again as another film where the music is a character you know is something that could really resonate to this brand. I think it got nominated for like three or four of the Grammy spots first of first song. And so I would not be surprised in the slightest for it to get two nominations here. Again it's just an inconvenient moment it's just a matter of timing because the big complication we've talked about here is that if Sinners does get two nominations here, it's winning. It is going to upset Golden for the win.

SPEAKER_02: 1:19:08

Yeah because usually the film that gets two songs nominated in this category that's the winner.

SPEAKER_01: 1:19:12

Very much so Barbie Amelia Perez and so since the narrative is already you know rolling that Golden will win this and again you're gonna have a K-pop song win this and they like for this category to be sort of um culturally diverse. I remember one Natu Natu won from RRR. I think that's something that's gonna really motivate them to give the win to Golden but if you have both Sinners songs there that may um prove an issue but another for example film to get multiple nominations here is something like Somdog Millionaire right they got multiple nominations and so I do feel like Sinners feels comfortable there and I would love to see Miles get the nomination and I wonder if some voters are going to want to see Miles get the nomination. So I really do I'm really really I really think it's uh uh really close to scoring that last spot um another film

SPEAKER_02: 1:20:00

That uh we contemplated was um come uh the song from the documentary Come See Me in the Good Light. Uh Brandy Carlisle is on that track. She was just nominated rather recently for the documentary Elton John. Elton John.

SPEAKER_01: 1:20:14

So we wonder if the branch is welcome is ready to welcome her back so soon. At the same time, I will say something going for that film is that not only do documentaries do well here, um, and that even though Diane Warren is here for a documentary, that they have not often, but they have on occasion, maybe once or twice, nominated two documentaries at the same time. That um one of the uh individuals who's the subject of the documentary, Andrea, she would also be listed as a writer on the song. And again, it would be a nomination for her as well. So that could be something voters look into.

SPEAKER_02: 1:20:44

Right. Um, the uh dying to live song from the Billy Idol documentary is really cool. Um, and Jay Ralph is attached to that song, and he's been nominated in this category before. Um, how many times?

SPEAKER_01: 1:20:55

I think Three Nods, uh, Racing Extinction, Chasing Ice, Jim, the James Foley story. And so, more often than not, he gets in when he shortlisted. His most recent shortlisting was for a film, I believe, called Dustin Ash, and he did not get nominated. But that said, this branch also loves music that comes from musicians where musicians are in documentaries reflecting on their life, like Brandy Carlisle's work on the Elton John documentary last year. Like Diane Warren. And like Diane Warren, for example. And so is the J. Ralph Billy Idol collaboration gonna be enough to get J. Ralph back into this category.

SPEAKER_02: 1:21:30

Right. Another another film that we looked at, another contender was the song that made it in for for F1. Uh after submitting three, they got one in. They got one in.

SPEAKER_01: 1:21:39

And the so drop and she wins on that, John Mayer. So you have these really big names. It was like one of the big soundtracks of summer. Can it can it get in? Is the question.

SPEAKER_02: 1:21:49

Um Yeah, I do worry about giving F1 too many nominations when we don't think it's going to be a best picture film at the end of the day. Right. So if you're giving it four or five nominations, you're really increasing the question. Well, why isn't it a best picture film?

SPEAKER_01: 1:22:03

You're getting close to Top Con Maverick number um without a potential screenplay nomination. Right. Um, but so there's still a dark horse. Remember, one thing you should see here is overlap between song and score. And so we definitely have sinners there.

SPEAKER_03: 1:22:17

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:22:17

Right. We don't think something like Wicked's gonna do it, K-pop's not eligible, Diane Warren is eligible, but unlikely because documentaries don't do well there. Not unheard of for F1 to score to get nominations and score and song. Um, for Wicked to get score and song, but we're not seeing it fall that way. But I will say that that score mentioned for Hans Zimmer does boost up the presence of again, same branch. If a branch sees Hans Zimmer and they see the song, they may say, Well, I'll nominate F1 for score and I'll leave it off song, or vice versa.

SPEAKER_00: 1:22:46

I'll nominate for song and leave it off score.

SPEAKER_02: 1:22:48

Exactly. That could play. Um exactly. And like you said, um, in another year, maybe a little bit less competitive. Maybe they nominate Wicked twice, possibly.

SPEAKER_00: 1:22:55

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 1:22:55

Um, but I think we ultimately settled. Uh oh, and then Tront Ares has a song here, and it was also Grammy nominated.

SPEAKER_00: 1:23:02

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 1:23:02

Um, but again, they don't tend to do so well, you know, when they're not when their films aren't nominated in the sound categories. Right. So uh that also made us hesitate. So we ultimately sided with what I think most people are siding it with is this original song from Train Dreams called Train Dreams by the incredible Nick Cave, one of our greatest musicians, one of our greatest artists. Um, I don't know if he's ever been shortlisted. I don't think he has. I believe so. But um, I certainly think he is a respected member of the uh music industry. And uh, you know, this would be an easy way to not to give Train Dreams, which is expected to get Best Picture, another nomination. It's an absolutely gorgeous song, very much in the Nick Cave style. Um, that I can't help but feel that when when and if voters hear the song, they'll be moved by it. Um, it plays beautifully in the film. Um, and so I think you know, all the elements are there for him to land his first Oscar nomination. I certainly hope so. It's one of my favorite tracks on this list. Um, and I don't know. I I I I feel good about it.

SPEAKER_01: 1:24:09

I think it closes the film in a very memorable way as well for individuals who watch the movie, and obviously it's a best picture contender right now, so people are being moved by the end of the film, and so to have that song hit then is really um, I think important. I know that Netflix just released like a music video for it, which is great because obviously they're really campaigning it. Netflix again does really well here. Not only did they get the two Emilia Perez songs in, but if you kind of look at it, I remember like in 2020, the pandemic year, they had a song from Chicago 7, they had a song from Eurovision, they had a song from The Life Ahead from Italy. And so it would, I think it makes sense to see Netflix here twice for K-pop and for Train Dreams.

SPEAKER_02: 1:24:45

I agree 100%. So for our final predictions, we're gonna go with the favorites, and that is uh Dear Me from the Diane Warren documentary Relentless, uh, The Girl in the Bubble from Wicked for Good, Golden from K-pop Demon Hunters, I Lied to You from Sinners and Train Dreams from Train Dreams.

SPEAKER_01: 1:25:05

Keep an eye out for Jay Ralph and Billy Idol, for F1 Um and Drive, and for Miles Caden to possibly get in here for the second Sinners song um last time I saw the song. And for highest to lowest.

SPEAKER_02: 1:25:17

That's right, and for Spike Lee's okay, and now moving on to our next category, which is costume design.

SPEAKER_01: 1:25:24

Um, so this is kind of a fun category in the sense that um I think a lot of the contenders are solidified, but there's I think a little bit of a hole, a loophole that most people are overlooking. And I think you and I are maybe debating whether there's something there or not, and I think we're citing that there's something a little fishy, something a little off. Um, so let's start by saying um there are a few titles that feel like impossible to snub here. And so Frankenstein should make it in here.

SPEAKER_02: 1:25:54

And I think it's actually the favorite to win, if it were my opinion.

SPEAKER_01: 1:25:57

Possibly the favorite to win. Um big lush adaptation. Guillermo do Toro got in here for Nightmare Alley, has never won this category, actually, one of his films. So that would be.

SPEAKER_02: 1:26:06

And this would be the first nomination for the costume designer.

SPEAKER_01: 1:26:09

That's right. Um, I believe uh Kate Hawley, um, it would be her first nomination. So Frankenstein looks uh said here, uh Ruth Carter is gonna be nominated again for Sinners. Yeah, uh, did it does a fantastic job, could potentially walk out with a win here. I would not be surprised at all. Um period piece, but you know, also playing um with a lot of different um fusion flavors and a lot of genre. Um, so um that's definitely gonna be nominated. Um and I and then I think um most people and I think us uh we're of the same mind. This is a category where Wicked for Good should feel comfortable and is in good shape to get in after uh Paul's win last year for this category. Um so we are expecting it to repeat.

SPEAKER_02: 1:26:53

Yes, I think the only thing that I question and I brought up to you is this idea that, you know, why did a film like, and I don't know the answer to this, but why did a film like Dune Part 2, which again got less nominations than Dune Part 1, and we're expecting a similar thing to happen here with Wicked, why did a film like Dune Part 2 miss the costume design nomination? Right. And you and I have have talked about it in the past. It's it's it's a weird, it's a weird thing that happened there. And the only thing that I think you and I came up with, or at least I did, was that possibly the voters of that camp um were not attracted to the idea that the costume design didn't change that much from part one to part two.

SPEAKER_01: 1:27:32

Could very much be the case.

SPEAKER_02: 1:27:34

And so there's a part of me that wonders could something like that happen here uh for Wicked? I mean, I think it would be a shock. Right. And I think a lot of people would be surprised. And if I'm being honest, considering the field that we have to consider for this category, I don't think it's likely to happen. I don't think we're likely to see a snub here for Wicked for good. Right. But it's certainly something that makes me pause and question, right? You know, and I still don't know the answer to that, and I'd like to know the answer to that.

SPEAKER_01: 1:27:59

Right. No, I I think that makes a lot of sense. It's something that we may have to end up talking about further down the line. I think the category is light in contenders, and that may really work in its favor. Right. Um, but certainly we cannot ignore that last year's best picture nominee that downgraded from double digits to five missed out in costume design for very good work that incorporated, you know, some new styles and it missed out in cost in makeup as well. And so it's not outside the realm of possibility that just because Wicked for Good won this category last year, it is guaranteed. I think you're right, we should not take that for granted. That being said, it is tough to find films that may stand out here, that maybe were viewed enough here. Um, so I do think that for the time being, uh Wicked for Good is safe here. Um, and so that's three spots. And then the fourth spot, you know, looking at sinners, looking at Wicked for Good, looking at Frankenstein, I think we're missing something historical. And this was sort of our mindset last year. If you want to check out our episodes from last season, where we talked about Ariane Phillips getting in for a complete unknown, right? We need something sort of historical that they that that voters that appeals to voters in in terms of in terms of having something period specific. And so like Frankenstein certainly takes its liberties, right? Um and that's part of the joy in it, and they're gonna, I think, respond to that. Um, but I do think I do think they want something period specific. They they tend to like that. And then we have Hamnet, right, which is actually which is tackling the Shakespearean era, has William Shakespeare in it. Um, costume designer has yet to be nominated. Um, the other uh costume designers, as we've said, Ruth Carter, on Paul from Wicked for Good, they've they're former nominees, former winners. Kate Hawley's gonna get her first nomination for Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_02: 1:29:46

Um and this category likes to see uh veterans.

SPEAKER_01: 1:29:49

Veterans, yes. Um, but um, we should see the first nomination um for uh Magozia Trozanska for Hamlet. Um uh she does good work. I think, you know, when her first screen there was this idea that it's a little bit more of a modest uh budgeted film and that the costume design isn't as elaborate for other films that tackled, you know, Shakespeare, you know, Shakespeare and Love, for example. It's certainly not that. But the work, I I think we've said is is um precise enough.

SPEAKER_02: 1:30:18

Yeah, it's very meticulous, meticulous. It's a nuanced, but still, you know, very uh very detailed.

SPEAKER_01: 1:30:24

Yeah, absolutely. And that also, again, they want specificity of period.

SPEAKER_03: 1:30:28

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 1:30:28

Um, and that, you know, the idea also here that production design and cosmos design are sister categories, and that very often the artists working in each individual field will reference each other's movies along with makeup. And so it helps that Hamnet um should is is going to contend in something like production design as well. Right. And so if you put those four movies, um, which we feel pretty confident about, um they feel pretty safe, but we gotta look for a fifth.

SPEAKER_02: 1:30:55

Um well, I'll just mention really quick that I think that's a really good point that I don't think is brought up enough um in that when you're considering predicting these tech categories, there is, as you were uh saying, exactly, there is this overlap that should exist. You know, costume design is in a way speaking to production design, is in a way speaking to uh makeup and hairstyling. So there should certainly be overlap, and it helps when a film is meant to do well in one category, that helps it do well in another category. So that's something to always keep in mind. I'll also mention that Frankenstein and Hamnet and Sinners, I believe, were all nominated for the Costume Designers Guild in the period section, which is the most important section to be nominated in. Um, they were all nominated there. The second most important section is the fantasy section, which Wicked for Good, I believe, won last year, might probably is very likely to win this year as well. Um, it did well there. Those are their favorite uh uh categories to look at. Their less, the lesser favorite of the three would be the contemporary category. Contemporary pieces do not tend to get nominated for costume design. They believe the last one that was there was Lala Land, which I believe was a contemporary piece, I believe was last year.

SPEAKER_01: 1:32:08

Actually, and I think this is a great um moment to pick up on where the discussion is going to turn. The last one to be nominated was actually last year for Conclave, when Lizo Crystal got nominated for her work on Conclave. That's right. Now, you're a hundred percent right. At the for the costume designers, you know, and production designers as well, contemporary is a very difficult thing to cross over and get a nomination for. Um, not very many films do it. Conclave does it, La La Land does it. Um now, the favorite, I think, to win this category, who's listed at the Costume Designers Guild, is one battle after another. Um, by Colleen Atwood, who they who they like, um, who they adore, has uh so many nominations, so many wins. Um, but we always have that issue, right? Um, the contemporary winners don't always get in. Um when they do get in, the previous examples we just said, they tend to be for major movies, which one battle is one of them. Yes. But they also tend to be for the production design. Remember, we talk about those sister categories. Law on Land is a nominee for costume design and production design. Um Conclave is a nominee for costume design and production design. So if One Battle can somehow buck the trend and be another contemporary film to get a costume design nomination because Colleen Atwood is responsible for it and because it's just that beloved of a film, you would have to imagine that it is going to bridge the gap and get both a costume and production design nomination. Why that is a little bit of an issue, I think, is because um you know, we're now we're talking about pushing one battle, you know, up to record nominations. Um breaking 14, breaking the Titanic 14, the All About E14, the Banner for all 14. Can it happen? Maybe, but I will say that I do think that something going against it is, you know, when you look at one battle, as well done as it is, it isn't, I think, period specific enough, you know, um, to maybe muster those nominations for production design and for costume design. For example, you look at the very elaborate wear on Conclave, right? That's not the case for one battle, right? It's a very casual wear specific, but very casual. You look at how many outfit changes there are in Lala Land, there's barely an outfit change in one battle, right? Um, so those are things going against it. And sort of the same thing with the production design, you know, this movie is unfolding in this parallel mirror sort of space that really just wants to live in this sort of ambiguous level that production designers it might not call out to them as much, right? And so I do think that um the one battle getting nominated here is a real possibility, but there are big, big ifs about it.

SPEAKER_02: 1:34:51

Now, now I I mean if you look at the field of contenders here, as you were mentioning at the top when we were discussing this category, is you know, it is a very difficult category to predict that final spot because there aren't a lot of places to go.

SPEAKER_03: 1:35:05

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:35:06

Um, for example, uh HEDA was a film that received a costume designers guild nomination, which is great. Yeah, but overall it hasn't done well besides that. Um, it didn't make the BAFTA long list, which I think is major.

SPEAKER_01: 1:35:18

Yes, it didn't make it because Tessa Thompson did, for example, get shortlisted.

SPEAKER_02: 1:35:21

Right. So they they have they're watching the film. Right. Um, it didn't make the BAFTA long list, for example, for makeup. Um, it didn't make the uh Oscar shortlist, for example, in makeup and hairstyling. It didn't get nominated or get mentioned in the production designers guild. So it's almost like the the lone mention that it got was at the Costume Designers Guild. And that's already a film that is struggling to get eyes on it. Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:35:44

And Lindsay Pew, again, not her the costume designer, not necessarily the most well-known. And I will say the costume design, I think, is very well done, especially for a gender reversal for Nina Haas's character. Um, but I will also say that again, it's a film where there's not many outfit changes, and that may possibly be a factor, maybe, but it's certainly, I think you're right, being underseen. So that enough people even watch it. Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:36:08

Is Amazon, you know, Amazon really kind of you know fucked it up by putting all their chips on a film like After the Hunt, when we really feel that there was an opportunity here to get a nomination for HETA for uh a very period-specific costume design uh shout-out for uh Tessa Thompson, who did get uh a mention at the Golden Globes, for even Ina Haas, who's never been nominated. And there's uh you know, supporting actress is so uh, you know, uh such a such a chaotic race.

SPEAKER_00: 1:36:34

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:36:34

Um so that's a fumble. Um the other film that was nominated in the period category for the costume designers guild is Downtown Abbey, uh the the final Downtown Abbey. Um BAFTA listed as well. It was it was listed by the by the BAFTA long list, it was also listed in the BAFTA long list for makeup. Um, but Downtown Abbey has not had a lot of success here at all. Not at all. Cracking in the they've had three chances to the bat. Yeah. Right. Uh hasn't had success here at all. I don't really see why it would start now. You obviously hold something against it about it being sort of a TV adaptation, right? TV adaptation, correct. Um, unless again, it could be a year where that last spot is so strange.

SPEAKER_01: 1:37:15

Or you just warned them down and be like, fine, I give up and I'm nominating Danton Abbey.

SPEAKER_02: 1:37:20

I wonder if that'll happen. Part of me would feel disappointed if we kind of resolve that missing spot with the simple, oh, let's just give it to Danton Abbey. Yeah. It's underwhelming. Right. Um, and then again, when we go to the fantasy categories that were nominated for the Cosm Designers Guild, Tron Ares, How to Train Your Dragon, Thunderbolts, Avatar 3, you know, none of them really uh uh I think stand up a chance to break into this final five. And then again, you go to the contemporary pieces besides one battle, F1, Begonia, Wake Up Dead Man, Weapons, same thing. I don't think any of those are very strong contenders.

SPEAKER_01: 1:37:51

On the plus side, Bogonia did manage to get that baft along as well. But again, these contemporary films, they have a lot of trouble getting in.

SPEAKER_02: 1:37:59

And when they do get in, they're again, as you're saying, major best picture films. Right. Which begonia right now is not packed to be.

SPEAKER_01: 1:38:05

Side note, Emma Stone and the costume design branch, they got a thing going on, cruella, poor things. Um, you know, if anyone could book the trend, maybe it's Emma Stone. But again, it is a huge hurdle to be a contemporary film.

SPEAKER_02: 1:38:17

Right. So when we, you know, look elsewhere besides those films, films that did not get mentioned by the Costume Designers Guild, you know, they all have their issues as well. So, for example, a very big film that would miss the Costume Designers Guild was Marty Supreme.

SPEAKER_03: 1:38:32

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:38:32

Um, and Marty Supreme would make perfect sense in this category. It's a period piece. Actually, the costume design work in that film is very well done. But however, the way the film is shot and it's instructed, you know, its approach is not the most favorable to the costume design, you know. Conventional. You know, it's it's it doesn't let you sort of just you know admire the costume design all that much. There's very, you know, a lot of close-ups in the film, etc. Um, and I really don't like that it missed that costume designer's guilt.

SPEAKER_01: 1:39:02

I think that's pretty important, and I think let's circle back to that. But I will say going for Marty is that you know, not only do you have different cultures in the film at which at one point travels all the way to um Japan, I believe, for one portion of the film, but you also have all these like different so uh uh social and economic stratospheres, right? Where Marty lives and and and his family, and then you go up to uh where um Gwyn of Powder is a movie star. And so, like, I will I do think costume designers are gonna be attracted to that. Not only is the work well done, as you said, but you have these different costumes that are character defining and sort of sphere defining. Um, and and and that's going to definitely resonate, but that omission is major, and we'll we'll go back to that.

SPEAKER_02: 1:39:47

Actually, no, we can talk about it now. And the problem with the omission is that we look past at past history, and no one has gotten in to this category for costume design without ever at least being. Nominated at some point in their career, whether it be for that specific contender they're in contention for or a past nomination, um, without being nominated in the Costume Designers Guild.

SPEAKER_00: 1:40:10

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 1:40:10

So the costume designer for Marty Supreme has never gotten a costume designers guild nomination. Right. She didn't get one here for Marty. She's never gotten one, period.

SPEAKER_01: 1:40:19

I think that is sort of the huge detriment. You look at some of these new costume designers, and again, this is a category that tends to favor veterans. They certainly welcome new uh costume designers, but they tend to favor veterans a little bit more. Um, Kate Hawley, um, you know, she got that uh mention for this film, but she was also nominated previously, for example, for a Crimson Peak uh Crimson Peak, uh Truzanska for Hamnet, who was hoping to get in. She was also nominated for The Green Knight a few years ago. The big issue is that the costume designer of Marty Supreme, um Miyako Belize, I believe, um, she was not uh nominated for the guild for Marty and she doesn't have a guild mention yet. And I think her filmography is still, you know, sort of um lean. Um, and she works a lot with the Safties and she's had success with them. But I do wonder if, despite the good work on screen, if that's something that's going to be held against her. And traditionally that has been the case, where, you know, as you said, you're either breaking in with your first guild nomination into your first Oscar nomination, or for example, um, you're someone who maybe uh got omitted at the guilds and is surprising um with your Oscar nomination, but most of the time you will have had one or two guild nominations in the past, right? You know what I mean? Um, and so I think right now the consensus for the top five does include Marty Supreme and that it would make perfect sense, too. And it would make perfect sense, right? Because it is a um best picture movie, and sort of we have the DJ five there sub out one battle after another for contemporary bias and put in wicked for good, which was last year's winner, and the list makes a lot of sense, except when you look at the idea that Miyako missed the guild nomination this year and she doesn't have one yet. She would be the rare exception for that to happen. And so looking at that, I think that's where we think the hole is. Um other contenders to uh that we that we looked at.

SPEAKER_02: 1:42:12

Uh Nova Vogue. The BAFTA long list has a couple of right. Nova Vogue um had a BAFTA long list mentioned, but that's it. Um uh Nuremberg had a BAFTA long list mentioned for both uh costume design and makeup, and an Oscar mentioned for makeup. It didn't work as well. It's historical as well, but he's also not a super well-known costume designer. Uh Smashing Machine got a BAFTA uh is another film that we we talked about because it got some mentions in makeup uh for BAFTA long list and for the Oscar shortlist. Um, two other films we talked about that we don't know could there could there be a surprise lurking are films like The Ugly Stepsister, which made it into the Oscar makeup uh shortlist and Kokuho, which is both in the foreign language shortlist and the makeup shortlist.

SPEAKER_01: 1:42:58

Ugly Stepsister sort of reminds me of like how Pinocchio got that makeup uh long list mentioned and was able to pull out makeup and costume.

SPEAKER_02: 1:43:05

However, Pinocchio did get a Cosme Designer's Gail nomination.

SPEAKER_01: 1:43:08

Right. So the same sort of issue is coming up against the costume designer of Ugly Stepsister. That being said, they have been working for quite a while.

SPEAKER_02: 1:43:15

And Kokuho.

SPEAKER_01: 1:43:16

And Kokuho. Um, but I I I do think that, you know, at least, you know, playing in the realm of fantasy and and fairy tales is usually more fodder for costume designers than one battle after another, uh, typically.

SPEAKER_03: 1:43:29

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:43:29

Um, but yeah, so those are some some titles that stuck out. Then there are like there's one outlier title that hasn't gotten any love, and that's Testament of Ann Lee, which at one point looked good for a nomination here.

SPEAKER_02: 1:43:41

Well, I always questioned, you know, again, we go back, we've talked about this before. If you after you saw the movie, you know, I I I very much questioned how much it would appeal to get nominated for anything besides Amanda Safe Reed, and that's very much coming to fruition. Um, it's gotten blanked by every guild thus far. I didn't make one BAFTA long list mention, despite there being fantastic work in this film, uh, in terms of production design and costume design and makeup, everything.

SPEAKER_00: 1:44:07

Period specific again.

SPEAKER_02: 1:44:08

Very period specific. It's beautiful work, and it's been omitted. And I think that just goes to show you how much of the film is not resonating with the industry, unfortunately. Um, and so that's an outlier that would also make perfect sense in this category.

SPEAKER_01: 1:44:23

No BAF dimension, as you said, right? No costume designers guild.

SPEAKER_02: 1:44:26

And that's also another costume designer that has never been nominated for the costume designers guild. Um, and I believe it's a costume designer whose work leans in more international than it does domestic. Um, I believe she was the same costume designer for the zone of interest, I believe.

SPEAKER_01: 1:44:41

But that's sort of the issue that's like plaguing all the can a lot of the contenders in general in this category is that um while the work is good, the work seems to be underseen, and the designers themselves seem to be a little bit underexposed in terms of the the the voter base in the branch. Um, and so you know, I even with something like Marty Supreme, again, that guild snub, I think, is pretty major. And the fact that we haven't seen it before, right now, the consensus is that Marty gets in, but we feel a little bit um shaky on that. Um, and the problem is finding a substitute, right? And it would make sense for Marty to get in because again, the DJI 5 it would mean sub out one battle as a contemporary film and put in um wicked, which is a favorite here, um, and that makes sense. Um, but then a scenario occurred to our head, which is it possible if this happens, which is if Colleen Atwood, who's really respected and has all these nominations and all these wins at the Oscars and at her guild, manages to be the favorite to win a contemporary and she's already listed, and people are you know seeing that she's working on this film, but they have a bias against contemporary films. Does it possibly open a road, considering the competition we have of a possibility where the designers who vote who are part of this branch could potentially prefer to nominate Colleen Atwood, right? But for her work on the musical The Kiss of the Spider Woman, right? Um why? Because it's you know, it's a period, it's period. Um it it you know it is a little bit more concentrated on how it's you know specifically designing costume um for the main character, for the for the for the character played by Jennifer Lopez, um the female character, but also Molina, for example. Um, you know, if you watch the final moment of that film, it's very difficult not to see how the costume design isn't really elaborate and uh really significant in um telling the story right of the film. And so I do wonder if there is an opportunity here where, due to the competition, you could potentially see a surprise nomination from the winner of one battle after another in the contemporary section, but for the other title that they worked on. Um and so Colleen Atwood and Christine Cantella would end up being nominated for Kiss of the Spider Woman instead. And and they already have a guild nomination together exactly for their work on The Little Mermaid. And so they're not necessarily new besides Colleen Atwood. Christine isn't new either.

SPEAKER_02: 1:47:23

Well, again, Colleen Atwood is one of the most revered costume designers in the industry. Um, I think she only trails someone like Sandy Powell by a couple of nominations. Um, they're very fond of her work at the academy. She has an incredible amount of nominations, and a large number of her nominations are for things like musicals. Exactly. And she has gotten in the past for musicals that are associated with uh Bill Condon. Right. So there's a partnership here that I think the Cosmo designers are familiar with that they appreciate.

SPEAKER_01: 1:47:53

Right. And this also that idea that, you know, Bill Condon, he didn't work with Colleen on Dream Girls, but Dream Girls was nominated here. And just so that I that idea that a big sort of technicolor musical um from Bill Condon and Colleen Atwood is something that Cosmo designers are going to pay more attention to, possibly a film that focuses on uh gender as much as this film does is something that they're going to pay attention to. And so that idea popped into our head whether that nomination for Colleen in one battle and potential win for Colleen in one battle at her guild could really just boost her chances of getting nominated for Kiss of the Spider Woman instead. And I will say, again, I I don't know if I mentioned already, but not listed at the Bath the Long list, Kiss of the Spider Woman. Right, but it was not eligible. Right, it didn't come out and exactly. So it's very much not like HETA, where HETA was eligible and missed, you know, Kiss not being there makes sense because it wasn't even eligible.

SPEAKER_02: 1:48:46

Um now I I mean I will bring up that I think, you know, for me at least, it's undisputable that if we were able to somehow get all the members of the costume design uh of the costume branch to see both films back to back, that there would be one that they would prefer for this nomination and that that would be Kiss of the Spider Woman. Um uh the question is did enough voters see it? I mean, there's you know, the film has underperformed, it's been underseen in general, and there's a large, there's a very big question mark as to whether the studio even has the resources or had the resources to put it in front of voters' eyes. Right. Um, and that could be a huge reason why it gets blanked here. But it would make perfect sense in this category. And again, this is a collaboration um that they're very much uh endeared by, they like, um, and it's incredible work. I mean, if you see the film, the amount of detail and splendor in these uh, you know, uh throwback MGM musical uh set pieces is really beautiful to behold. Um and it's such a such a shame to think that it could go out, could go empty-handed, especially when there's an open spot, especially when the open spot favors someone like Colleen Atwood for a contemporary piece.

SPEAKER_01: 1:49:57

Exactly. But so I isn't it isn't it interesting the idea that like you have that little bit of bridge there? Um also I will say that something that should help Kiss of Spider Woman is that it's you know, it's you know, um culturally diverse, right? It's it has the Spanish influence, it has these influences on old Hollywood, also, right? Um, but I think that's something that's gonna pop out to them. Um, again, beyond that discussion it's having on gender, which I think is also gonna pop out to them. Um, the other thing is that like this category, as we said, tends to favor veterans. And so if you look at the list we've got right now, um, with Frankenstein, Hamnet, Sinners, and Wicked for Good, you got you got two veterans and and and two uh first-time nominees. Um the thing is, usually this category goes a minimum of three. I think the last time they got two was um happened to be, you know, the pandemic year, right? Which was a complicated year. Right. Um, but even in that pandemic year, for example, when you had um the first-time nomination for uh Trish Somerville for Mank or Bina Daigler for Mulan um or Massimo Perini for Pinocchio, they were nominated by the guild.

SPEAKER_03: 1:51:06

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 1:51:06

And so just the idea that Anton um excuse me, that um Anne Lee and um Marty Supreme are not guild nominees, that hurts already. I mean, it helps that HETA at least got that guild nomination and that sort of keeps it alive here. And I think HETA's certainly uh a dark horse there. Um, but again, a year where you have only two veterans is rare. And knowing that Colleen stands a good chance to win for one battle, I really do think that there is an opportunity here where we end up seeing Kiss uh of the Spider Woman surprise and and steal that fifth nomination. It kind of reminds me a little bit of like, you know, when when a costume designer is so well known, like um uh Yeiko for her work in Mirror Mirror or Sandy Powell in um uh The Tempest, right? When Sandy Powell is able to get a nomination there for The Tempest, she's working with Julie Tamore, who costume designers also know. And so, like, I just think the mix, the mix of what the film is about, the legacy of the project, Bill Condon, Colleen Atwood, Colleen being up for a bigger best picture movie, which has a contemporary bias. I see the pieces falling where this could happen. Again, those in those films that get in for a nomination, um, like uh Miyako would get in for Marty Supreme, that do not first get a nomination at their guild and they don't have any previous nominations at the guild. Um, a couple of titles are, for example, I Am Love, The Grand Master. Those are international titles. And so that that could happen here, and maybe there's an international contender that we're overlooking. Um but that being said, you know, it's not impossible for a respected costume designer to still get in for a nomination here without the nomination from her guild or from their guild, um, and without even uh a nomination at a guild like the Producers Guild Award. Like I remember I'm sorry, the the Production Designers Guild. I remember in 2019, that was the last time when Jacqueline Duran was able to get in for Little Women, and Little Women got snubbed from the Costume Designers Guild and the Production Designers Guild. So I don't think the fact that Colleen was not listed for KISS or that KISS wasn't listed in either guild is completely detrimental because the point is that it's a film that um voters already had in the back of their mind as costume designers who are familiar with this kind of work and these artists, um, and that it's going to be front of mind when they see Colleen's name show up in the guild um nominations, which they'll likely reference before submitting their final five.

SPEAKER_02: 1:53:33

Right. And I mean, again, Colleen Atwood is royalty when it comes to costume designers. She has, I believe, 12 nominations for the Academy, four wins. Look at some of these winslash nominations. Um, Into the Woods, uh Nine, uh, a Sweeney Todd, uh Chicago, you know. So this is very much, as you were saying, her element, you know, the musical space. And at her guild, I think I believe she has like 20 nominations. So she's certainly a favorite, never bank, uh, never bet against Colleen Atwood. Um, and uh just so happens that as you were saying, the pieces here are suspicious. Um, and it would be a shame to uh overlook Kiss of Spider Woman, I think personally, because the work is just that good and that beautiful. Um uh so let's see. Let's uh let's hope that that that that we're right there.

SPEAKER_01: 1:54:24

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 1:54:24

So then our final five predicted uh films for best costume design are Sinners, Wicked for Good, Frankenstein, Hamnet, and Kiss of the Spider Woman. Okay, and our next category that we'll be looking at, giving our final predictions is production design.

SPEAKER_01: 1:54:43

Um, I think this is like its sister category costume design. A lot of it feels kind of firm. Um, but then we enter this one tiny little loophole, which can be sort of deceptively simple. And I think, again, upon further examination, um shows that it's really complicated. And it's gonna be sort of the the line between you know how many you get right and how many you get wrong. Um, let's start at the top. Films that we're very, very sure are gonna show up, very confident is gonna show up.

SPEAKER_02: 1:55:12

Um that would be Sinners, right?

SPEAKER_01: 1:55:14

Hannah, Hannah for Sinners gonna come back. Um, she did not conduct forever. Um, winner of Black Panther, so she should easily be in here. Best picture movie, that's an easy one.

SPEAKER_02: 1:55:24

Um, Frankenstein, I think, is the favorite for this category as well.

SPEAKER_01: 1:55:27

Tamra Devere uh Tamra Deverell got nominated for Nightmare Rally, um, another best picture movie. Um, maybe the favorite to win here, possible. Um, what else?

SPEAKER_02: 1:55:35

Another film that I think has a very good chance of showing up here is Hamnet.

SPEAKER_01: 1:55:39

Yeah, Fiona Crombie, um, who is a previous nominee for the favorite. Um, I think again, like costume design, it's very modest. Um, it's not, you know, as elaborate or intricate as the work in, you know, for example, Shakespeare and Love, but it is effective, right? Um, and it does tell the story, and it is a previous nominee and a best picture nominee. So I think you and I are certainly expecting it to show up here.

SPEAKER_02: 1:56:01

Right. And I think uh one of the other very uh uh a contender that I think looks very safe here is Marty Supreme, um, by the very by the legendary Jack Fisk, um, who is the production designer. Um, let's put it this way when Jack Fisk is in a best picture heavy film, he gets nominated.

SPEAKER_01: 1:56:20

Right. That's that's usually the case. And to add on to that, Jack Fisk has always managed to score a nomination for a film that he was shortlisted at his guild for. Right. So Marty Supreme did get the Production Designers Guild nomination, unlike the Cosmo Designers Guild. Um, and so that's a really good sign. And I think you were pointing out the idea that, you know, thank God he got it, because again, there's just an approach to Marty.

SPEAKER_02: 1:56:50

Yeah, right. Exactly like we were talking about on in costume design. Um, you know, because of the style of the film, you don't necessarily get to sort of swim and uh just immerse yourself in the environment, even though it's very well done. Um, a very beautiful work by Jack Fisk. And it as you were saying, there's there's a globe-trotting aspect to it that I think only adds to its value. Um uh yeah, but like like costume design, you know, it it it it it suffers from not being able by by the approach, stylistically, the the Safety approach was just sort of like a more chaotic psychological, um, yeah, you know, put you in the psychological space on the character.

SPEAKER_01: 1:57:29

Um, so I think it's not it's just not conventionally what is rewarded in this category. Um, that's that the guild nominations should see him through, the best picture nomination should see him through. So that has a that that makes a list of Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Mari Supreme. Again, we're getting very close to the DJ five. Yeah, um, the film, only film missing is one battle after another, who is um coming from a previous nominee. But again, contemporary films, they can struggle here. And the ambiguous space that one battle is occurring in could be something that just turns off this branch.

SPEAKER_02: 1:58:04

Right. It's obviously taking place in present day slash maybe even a little bit into the future. Um, but again, it's it's it's nebulous. Right. Um and so I will say that, you know, uh I I would feel or I rather I feel a little bit more uh positive about its chances to surprise in costume design than I do its chances to surprise here in production design.

SPEAKER_01: 1:58:26

Right. Although again, usually they they they are a pair. Yeah. Um now if we look at some of the other contenders that we can choose from to fill in that fifth spot, um, over at the Production Designers Guild, you had a nomination, a surprise nomination, welcome nomination for Phoenician Scheme from Adam Stockhausen previous nominee. Yeah. Um, really nice to see there. Again, another film that missed the Cosmo Designers Guild nomination for Milena Canonero, who again has gotten in by herself. So could she crash the Cosm Design nomination? Possibly, except there's an issue with both Adam Stockhausen's chances and Milena's chances, which is that at the academy, Wes Anderson films have been all or nothing, despite their elaborate designs. The only one to get in is the Grand Budapest Hotel, which is the best picture movie. Yeah, and so just the idea of Adam getting in there, sneaking in and getting a nomination for the work on Budapest feels really, really far because usually, like I said, with Wes, you either fell in love with his films and they showed up everywhere, or they don't show up at all. Right. Right. And this was sort of again a muted response when it came out. Didn't make a lot of money here or overseas. And so I think that that really hampers the film's chances. Um, also, not a BAFTA long list um nominee over on the fantasy. Um mention, um, over on the fantasy side, you have what I suspect are going to be our two most likely contenders, and that is you have a nomination for Avatar, Fire and Ash, and Wicked for Good. Alongside them, there's a lot of celebrated work with Fantastic Four, which I have to mention, also made uh the BAFTA long list. Mickey 17 made the BAFTA long list. Um, Superman is there as well. On the contemporary side, you have One Battle, which is on the long list. Uh Bugonia Ganominate the Guild on the long list as well. F1, Mission Impossible, Wake Up Dead Man. But I think our debate here is between which of the two BAFTA long listed films, excuse me, which of the two guild nominated films, Avatar or Wicked, can edge out the other to score the fifth spot, right? Is that what you're thinking as well?

SPEAKER_02: 2:00:25

100%. And it's not an easy battle. Um, on one hand, uh, the work in Wicked for Good is still very elaborate and well done. Um, he was just nominated here, the production design. Nathan Crowley. Nathan Crawley was just nominated here last week. Yeah, first win. Right. And I will say that there is a pattern that his films um tend to uh, you know, uh when they get nominated for production design and they're part of these elaborate sort of films, uh tends to get nominated alongside a visual effects nomination. What that happened last year, Wicked got both a visual effects nomination and a production design nomination. So, in a way, if you're predicting Wicked to be nominated here, it's like you're also predicting it to get nominated for Visual Effects. It would be odd for it to be here and not in Visual Effects. Again, you know, Nathan Crawley's work tends to, when they're part of these bigger budget spectacles, they tend to go hand in hand, a production design nomination with a visual effects nomination. So that's something to consider. And then there's something very important to consider about Avatar.

SPEAKER_01: 2:01:26

Um, I think the thing about Avatar is if costume design and production design are sister categories, then production design and visual effects are cousin categories. And there should be sort of a film bridging the two, at least one. Um, for example, last year you did see Wicked have that spot in production design and visual effects, but with diminishing returns and with just the idea that Dune, it's Dune part two is able to miss makeup and costume design last year. The argument really exists where can can Wicked really survive, Wicked for Good survive nominations in both costume and production design. You would imagine the one that's further ahead is possibly costume design because again, the fair fair you know, the feel of the field of it, not but also just the idea of you know um designing around these two female characters, these fantasy worlds, it it's a little bit more prioritized in costumes than it is in production design. Um, but um the other thing is that Wicked, I don't know if it has as strong a shot this year of getting into visual effects. Um at the same time, their avatar Fire and Ash uh is certainly a strong contender to get nominated and win Visual Effects. Way of Water got the nomination at the Production Designers Guild, got the Oscar nomination for production design production design and won Visual Effects. Um it very much fits the you know the mold of that film that bridges the two. The only big problem is that it missed the BAFTA long list mention. And I think that's really important because I think the BAFTA Long List has been.

SPEAKER_02: 2:02:59

Has had a good track record of having, you know, um all the nominees, eventually all the eventual nominees for production design in their long list.

SPEAKER_01: 2:03:07

They've been pretty much on the money. And so does that omission sort of spell trouble for Avatar, which in general we know that Fire and Ash is having trouble this season, you know, with the PGA snub and and snubs elsewhere. Um, we saw it do well at the Visual Effects Society. So we know it's going to win that category.

SPEAKER_02: 2:03:25

Yeah, so that's the other thing to consider that if you see uh the trend is that the visual effects winner when uh they like to include the visual effects winner when they can in the production design category.

SPEAKER_01: 2:03:38

I I kind of remember that the last visual effects winner to knock it in here was actually pretty recently for the creator, but even then they were able to have Napoleon sort of adopt Napoleon as that film that bridged visual effects and production design, right? So at minimum, we should have one film bridging it. I think the last time that we had a production design category, um, a list of nominees, five nominees, that didn't include a single film from the visual effects category was 2016. So, like nearly a decade ago. Um, and it was an off year, that's just not the case. Um, if you look at the visual effects winner that year, the jungle book, it didn't get nominated at the production designers guild, but avatar Fire and Ash did. And again, it's expected, I think, to win this category. And the winners of the fantasy category typically, typically tend to get nominated. And so the guild nomination and potential win favors Avatar. The crossover between visual effects and production design favors avatar. Diminishing returns doesn't necessarily favor Avatar, Fire and Ash, and the BAFTA long list snub certainly is working against it. So we're kind of stuck in this like middle place of what do we do? Do we give um more nominations to Wicked, which is against diminishing returns? Do we give more nominations to Avatar, which is against diminishing returns? Do we sort of buck the idea that the BAFTA has been pretty accurate on the production designers um uh when it when listing production design nominees on the long list, or do we stick with the idea that the winner of the production designer's guild for fantasy should make it in here? Um a few other contenders that made it in the BAFTA included um that of a small player, um, and I believe no uh Danton Abbey is in in costume. That's right, yes. Um, but so I maybe one of those costumes people can make it in here, maybe. Um, but I doubt it. I mean, uh Bugonia, one bathroom or another, again, those contemporary pieces struggle. So it's really I think it really comes down to these two. Um, and I don't know what you're thinking is is is the best way for it to break.

SPEAKER_02: 2:05:40

Well, I mean, I think that I really leaned on the idea that there should certainly be diminishing returns for both films. In Avatar's case, you have already we're already starting at four, which is a pretty low number anyway. From way of water. From way of water, exactly in 2022. So diminishing returns should be less than four. Could it just be one? And visual effects. I mean, that could happen. Um uh, but in its favor, it stands to win that category. I think there's very little doubt that it will win that category. On the opposite end, I think that Wicked for Good should have somewhat of a dramatic shift and have uh much less nominations than the first one. So if the first one is 10, I'm thinking that three or four is the tops for Wicked for Good. And uh, I don't think one of its strongest categories is visual effects. I actually think there's some visual effects in the film that I wasn't quite fond of, and that I would think that the uh visual effects branch is not going to respond as favorably as the first one. Yeah. Um, and I think that that affects my impression that it'll get nominated to production design. Right. You know, um uh some visual effects artists might feel that, you know, nominating the first one was enough. They don't have to nominate for the second one. And I think that already hurts the bid for production design for Wicked for Good. Meanwhile, we still have Avatar possibly winning its category in the production designers guild, and certainly very favorably winning visual effects at the Academy.

SPEAKER_00: 2:07:09

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:07:09

So, in a way, between the two of them, I can't help but feel that the edge is a little bit for Avatar three Fire Nash, um, and that possibly the diminishing returns for Avatar Fire and Ash is we go from four to three, visual effects, sound, production design, or even two visual effects and production design.

SPEAKER_01: 2:07:26

Yeah, because sound is not necessarily sewn up yet. Um, but I do like, you know, when you take a macro look at it, these two sister categories, one of them gets wicked in and the other one subs it out for avatar. I do like that sort of idea. I don't know if you like that also, um, where um instead of you see both uh both of them show up in each category, you sort of see the populist votes to the populist vote break for wicked in one and the populist vote break for Avatar in the other. I like that, especially considering these are two movies, again, two kind of sister movies that have just underperformed this year and didn't get into the PGA. Um, I like that that looks symmetrical. I I think again, we shouldn't um look over the idea that liking costume, you could very well just see the DJA five here. Um, and going against that is that that doesn't happen very often. Same thing.

SPEAKER_02: 2:08:15

Oh, minus minus one battle after another.

SPEAKER_01: 2:08:17

Minus one. Well, again, if one battle after another manages to get both, and Marty manages to get both, you could potentially see the DJ 5 there. It's not impossible. In fact, I think it's more likely this year than in other years when you had uh more contemporary pieces that were not going to get to the largest hall of the of the day. Um so I do want to like put that out there, but at the same time, I also want to say that like it's it's not that often that the categories should perfectly mirror each other. It's it's usually not that boring. Usually you'll see three movies overlap, which is what we got right now Frankenstein Sinners and Um Hamnet, right? Sort of dominating these two races, and then the two movies differ, right? You have Jack Fisk and the James Cameron spectacle, and in the other, you have the two musicals, right, which I think are preferred in costume design, and I think that makes sense to us on a macro level and sort of taking a wider view of Academy Award history, right? Right. And so I think with that, what are our final predictions?

SPEAKER_02: 2:09:18

So our final predictions for predictions for production design are Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Avatar, Fire Nash. Okay, and the next category that we'll be looking at is best cinematography. Um, again, we'll start off with the films that should be uh very much favorited to get in here, and that is uh Sinners, should definitely get a nomination here. In fact, it's probably the front runner to win this category. Um, it'll be one of the few uh female cinematographers to win this category.

SPEAKER_01: 2:09:51

I think it'd be the first win and one of the few, one of the first, uh one of the few nominees to get in.

SPEAKER_02: 2:09:56

Right. Uh um, which would be historic, and obviously that's very much going in its favor. Um, one battle after another should comfortably get in here as well. Um, and train dreams should get in here as well. Um now all first timers, I'll say that. All first timers, and we're gonna get into that a little bit. Um, we shouldn't have a list of all first timers first, I'll just say that. Um uh the consensus right now is that Sinners, One Battle, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, and Hamlet are the favorites again on African cinematography. Um, you know, if you look at the precursors, you know, they've they've they've routinely been the five that have been cited. Um, Train Dreams, interestingly enough, won the Crick's Choice the other day. Surprisingly. Right. Um, I think that when we look at the ASC, the American Uh Society of Cinematographers, you'll see that there's one very big snub, and that is Hamlet. The Guild, yeah. Yeah, the Guild. Sinners, one battle after another, Train Dreams Um and uh Frankenstein managed to get a nomination, and instead of Hamlet, we have Marty Supreme. Um, that's very interesting. Uh, obviously, as I said, uh Hamlet was favored to get in here. Lucas Zhao has gotten into this uh guild twice. One for uh you know, as a nominee, and he won for Cold War, I believe he mentioned that. And the other was a spotlight award that he uh was mentioned um for Ida, which got nominated um in 2014.

SPEAKER_03: 2:11:22

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:11:23

Now, you know, the miss for Hamnet here, I think, is significant. And I think it points to, as we were saying at the top of the show, that it's the weakest category, it's the weakest uh contender in this category. Um, a few things to look at. When we looked at the past for cinematography, you know, um this is a guild that does pretty well in terms of overlap with the academy in this category. Um they usually get minimum four out of five correct. There's been uh, you know, in the last 10 years, let's say, uh one instance where they only got three correct, and that was quite recently in 2022, when they nominated uh both the Batman and Top Gun Maverick. Yeah, and instead the academy chose to nominate Tar and Al Qain the Western Front. Right, right. Um, but that's a rarity. You know, they usually do pretty well and they usually line up pretty well. Um last year they missed Emilia Perez and they had a list of seven, right? Technically, because they uh included Conclave, Complete Unknown, and Wicked Part One, none of which made it. Um, and instead Amelia Perez did. That being said, this is also a guild that doesn't tend to favor international films, so that's not very surprising.

SPEAKER_01: 2:12:31

I remember that Emilia Perez didn't make it into the guild, as you said, um, and also Tar didn't make it into the film. So, like, not being part of the Final Five doesn't necessarily kill you, right? Right. Um, but I will say, like, it's worked much better for international titles. And like, right, usually you'll see international titles in here, but that's like not the case this year, right?

SPEAKER_02: 2:12:51

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:12:51

Exactly.

SPEAKER_02: 2:12:52

And uh the mention for Darius Kanji is both surprising and not very surprising. Uh, not very surprising because this is a guild that very much embraces Darius Kanji's work. He's one of our great cinematographers, he's very revered in the industry. He has, I believe, uh four nominations at the guild dating back to 1996. Seven was nominated, Evita was nominated in 2022. We had Bardo False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths, and then just most recently, Marty Supreme. He also had a special mention in the spotlight award for the immigrant in 2015. He won a special award alongside Bardo in 2023. Um, uh, so they very much have embraced his work, and he's a legendary cinematographer who, oddly enough, only has two Oscar nominations, right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:13:41

1997, Evita, and Bardo, especially for someone like who was working in the 90s, like alongside Roger Deacons and Lubesky. You know, he doesn't have as many mentions as they do.

SPEAKER_02: 2:13:51

Right, exactly. And so, in a way, the Academy is behind the Cinematographers' Guild in recognizing his work. So it's not surprising that he was mentioned here by them. Again, they they embrace him often. Um, and it's surprising that the academy is so late. Um, but it's also surprising because if you see Mari Supreme, you know, it's well shot, it looks good, you know. But again, as we were mentioning with production design and with costume design, the stylistic approach, you know, very heavy close-ups, you know, doesn't necessarily let you, you know, sort of dissolve or immerse yourself in the photography either. The composition, the composition lining. Exactly. Yeah. Um, um, I mean, it's a it's an effect that they've done uh with Darius Kanji, the collaboration, Safety Brothers and Darius Kanji before. You saw it on Unka Gems. Um, and it works for their aesthetic, it works for their style, it works for the film, the the world that they're creating, but it doesn't necessarily, I mean, I wouldn't think it's something that leaps out to a cinematographer. Yeah, um, and yet it got mentioned here for the cinematographer.

SPEAKER_01: 2:14:53

I was gonna say I can't really think of a kind of a parallel comparison that has gotten into this guild before. And so it's kind of I think that's significant.

SPEAKER_02: 2:15:01

I I I I do too. Um, and so that I think is surprising, but I think it's worth uh uh really paying attention to. Um, because if you also look at their past, you see that this is a uh guild and it's also an Oscar, it's also an Oscar category that likes to include, you know, you know, for lack of a better phrase, you know, heavy hitters, you know, these uh very big figures in the cinematography field. You know, these are uh you know iconic and and legendary cinematographers. It is a category that is very welcoming and very embracing of those figures. And this year we have a lot of first timers. Right. We have Inciners, a first timer, we have Michael Bowman for one battle after another, a first timer, we have Adolfo for Train Dreams, a first timer, and then we have Frankenstein, which uh possibly Frankenstein, yeah, uh uh in terms of you know the the ASC and what's uh the favorites, um, who would be a first who is not a first timer, has gotten in twice before with uh Guillermo de Toro Films. This would be his third collaboration, and in a way, it's kind of weird to imagine um uh Dan Dan Laustin getting a third nomination for Guillermo de Toro Film and Darius Kanji still only has two.

SPEAKER_03: 2:16:19

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:16:20

You know, that's kind of weird. And it's as weird as thinking that Lucas Zhao for uh Hamnet would get possibly a third nomination by the Academy when someone of Darius Kanji's stature, again, only has two. Right. So I think there's an issue here, right? There's an issue that is uh problematic, and that's that these last two spots should they feel like they're between Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Hamnet, but you gotta give the edge a little bit to Marty Supreme, right? Because again, this category is missing these, you know, larger figures. Think about how last year like Ed Lockman. Yeah, Ed Lockman got in last year, and uh you know, you'll that's a pattern that you'll see. You'll see these figures be ever present in the cinematography category.

SPEAKER_03: 2:17:04

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:17:04

And really, Garrus Kanji is one of the few uh of that stature that you know is makes sense to get into this category among the contenders of change. Exactly. Um, and so in a way, I want to say that he has that fourth spot before either Frankenstein or Hamnet do. Wow. You know, which again is is weird because I don't think again it's that that I that I that I would lead with the foot of cinematography for Marty Supreme, but I think that's why he got nominated here. I think that's why he made it into this surprise surprise, he made it into this ASC list.

SPEAKER_01: 2:17:36

Right. It's almost like you're saying it's easier to imagine Darius getting a third nomination first before either Lucas Zhao or um Dan Lawson. Right. Um, and I think that makes a a lot of sense. Um so if if that's the case, I think where do you lie between does the last spot go to Lucas Zhao, who potentially maybe got overlooked for Zone of Interest, which was the best picture movie, or Dan Lawson, who would get a third nomination, and all his nominations come exclusively from Guillermo del Toro films, which is not always the most common. Like I think of someone like uh Matthew Lebatique, who has three nominations, right? But he's worked with Bradley Cooper, he's worked with Darren Aronofsky. So where do you lean?

SPEAKER_02: 2:18:22

So, yeah, in a way, it's like a race between does Dan Lauston get his third nomination with a Guillermo del Toro collaboration, um, or does uh Lucas Zhao get a third nomination, who gets a third nomination first? Um, and you know, if you look at the filmography of uh Dan Lausin, he's a Danish cinematographer, but he's actually been working for a long time um in the industry, and he's worked in a lot of American films, not just foreign language films. Um, and so you know, you you you saw him in the John Wick uh uh films, you saw him in collaborations with Guillermo Torrel, you saw him in some lesser films. Um, they're not necessarily worth his talent. Um but uh, you know, he's been a constant present. He has a he has a very big filmography. Whereas when you look at Luka Zhao, he has less credits and he's still, again, he's a Polish uh cinematographer, Lucas Zow, and I think his work is still leans more international than it does American.

SPEAKER_03: 2:19:22

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 2:19:22

And so I think that's a factor to consider. Um, and I also think that there's an aspect to Frankenstein and sort of the ornate production of it all that I think lends itself to um possibly, you know, be something that the cinematographers might be a little bit more attracted to than maybe the more nuanced approach that um Chloe Zhao has uh with her film. Right. Um, which again, it's well photographed, it's really beautiful to look at, but it doesn't have that kind of, you know, um majestic, you know, uh, you know, ornate sort of factor going for it, you know, in terms of its scope.

SPEAKER_01: 2:20:00

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 2:20:00

Um, which I think is uh something else to consider when you're debating who they would lean towards.

SPEAKER_01: 2:20:05

I think something that comes up is the idea of do you think it'll be a factor in terms of a uh a positive or a negative? The idea that Frankenstein is coming from Netflix and Netflix pretty much seems a shirt a nomination with train dreams. Right. You know, is that do you think that's a complication or do you actually think that's an asset?

SPEAKER_02: 2:20:23

Well, we know that Netflix does well in this category, but you're right in that, you know, it's not often, or in fact, I don't know if it's ever happened that they've been nominated twice. No, certainly, because I remember uh Ed Lockman. Oh, that's right. Actually, actually, the it's the reverse. Right. They tend to be to do so well in this category that they often get nominated more than once. So that maybe could be I think that's a factor to consider, yes. I think so. Yeah, that may be a tiebreaker. Right. And something else to consider is that there's a uh interesting correlation between Jack Fisk and his, you know, production design, um uh correlating really well with cinematography nominations in that when Jack Fisk gets nominated at the academy thus far, um, hit that film was also listed in cinematography.

SPEAKER_01: 2:21:05

Right. Right. So I mean, yeah, so his nominations are for um Kids of the Flower Moon, um, There Will Be Blood and The Revenant. And so they do they do get both a production design nomination and a cinematography nomination.

SPEAKER_02: 2:21:18

I mean, it's possible for a film that Jack Fisk was a part of to get a cinema cinematography nomination and to still not get a production design nomination. But when he gets nominated, Jack Fisk, those films tend to be cinematography nominees as well.

SPEAKER_01: 2:21:32

Right. It usually hasn't existed. I mean, I guess it has yet to exist where Jack Fisk makes the final five in his category of production design, and cinematographers don't revere the work enough that it doesn't make the top five for cinematography. I think, for example, you know, what you're saying is um like in 2005, um, when Emmanuel Lubeski was nominated for shooting uh The New World, right, for Terrence Malik, um, it was revered enough there to score that that single nomination, that sole nomination. And although Jack Fisk worked on it, he missed the nomination. And so that has happened. But whenever Jack Fisk has shown up on a short list for production design, it's because that movie is popular enough to make it into cinematography and popular enough to make it into best picture and um best director and all these other categories. And so we're sort of saying that again, that solidifies Marty's position that you can't move either spots one through three between trained dreams, uh Sinners, and um one battle, and one bat and one battle after another. And so I think at the end we're saying that just the credits and maybe Guillermo del Toro makes the branch lean toward Frankenstein.

SPEAKER_02: 2:22:47

Oh yeah, and also Netflix, right, you know, as you were saying, the the the scope of it all, you know, the ornateness of it all. Um uh, you know, I think all of that leans heavily on Frankenstein. And I should also point out that you mentioned at the top of the show that Lucaso hasn't had success for films not in black and white, obviously enough. Right. You know, uh both Ida and Cold War were black and white. Maybe that played a factor in the appreciation that the guild had or that the that the uh cinematographers have towards his work, possibly. Um and uh, you know, in a way, I also think that Guillermo del Toro has already established himself to be a filmmaker that cinematographers kind of uh are drawn to and pay attention to. And I don't know that Chloe Zhao is there. I will say that Chloe Zhao's first film, Nomad Land, did land a cinematography nomination. But if you've seen that film and you also understand that it came out during the pandemic, you know, it's not the kind of film that you would peg to be a clear fire, you know, nominee for cinematography. It just benefited from the year that it was in. Right. Um and so her approach to, you know, her cinematic canvas is not where, you know, cinematographers are at with Guillermo de Toro and his films. Right. So I think they're more attracted to, you know, you know, that that that loudness that's in the Guillermo de Toro films. And I think they might be a little bit less attracted to, you know, the sort of nuanced, you know, specificity, but you know, sort of spiritualness that is in the you know, visual images that are in Chloe Zhao's films.

SPEAKER_01: 2:24:19

I think it's very possible. I mean, we have to remember that Guillermo de Toro's film, Pan's Labyrinth, won this category back in 2006 for his big breakthrough, and it didn't even get a guild nomination, right? And so he has a history now of showing up, or his films rather have a history of showing up in the cinematography category, um, whether it's Pan's Labyrinth, um, Nightmare Alley, Shape of Water, and now I think Frankenstein seems likely to fit those shoes. Yeah, right. 100%. And so it goes potentially five out of five with the which is happening. Which uh happens often, actually.

SPEAKER_02: 2:24:53

Yeah. Um, and uh, you know, I don't like that this list is missing, you know, again, a a big veteran presence, someone who is considered, you know, of a high status, high stature in the field of cinematography. I mean, again, Dan Lauston would be his third nomination, but I'm talking about someone who's been working for a very long time and is very revered by the cinematographers uh guild and and department. Um, I feel like that this list is missing without that. Yeah. And so I like his inclusion in it as well. So I think our final predictions for cinematography are Sinners, one battle after another, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, and Marty Supreme.

SPEAKER_01: 2:25:36

All right. So um let's jump now to I think what we agree is gonna be one of the make or break categories for this year's Oscar predictions. You know, every year there's one of those where it's just tough to get a handle on. And I think this year's a group of those. There's always a group of those. There's a it was like a two or three, maybe even five of those, um, versus more steady categories. I think this year we are in store for a very complicated projection for the nominees in best film editing. Um and we'll start by the by there's you know, um, two films that I think you and I agree, like in almost every edit every other category, are further ahead than everyone else. And so we're fully expecting to see one bad after another get in here and sinners get in here. Um, both best picture movies, both first-time nominees. Um, after that, it gets a little bit shakier. Um, yeah. Uh I think those are the only locks. I think those are the only locks. Um, let's take a minute and look at who the BAFTA listed on their long list. Um, it included 28 years later, which did fantastic, which was I'm happy to see. Begonia again was listed there. F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, uh, One Battle, and Sinners, of course, and Weapons, which was kind of surprising. Um and so looking at that, where do we start to sort of decipher where the rest of this list can go? Um I think you and I sort of started with this very popular idea. Of course, the basis for everything, and again, uh we're seeing the the narrative and we'll see what happens on announcement day, but this could very well just be the DGA five. Could it not? Right, right. Um, and that's one battle after another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, and Frankenstein. Except most people have had an issue with that, right? And what has most people's issue been?

SPEAKER_02: 2:27:38

Well, the big issue here is that this category, and I think people have been, you know, understanding of this, this category needs at least one veteran in this category, someone who's been here before. And if you consider one about after another, centers and other films that people have been floating around, like Hamnet and Marty Supreme, um DJ5, yeah. Um, uh, even something like Weapons, you know, which again made the Baptist along list. Um, those are films that uh are newbies. They've uh they have no veteran that's been here before, and this category should have a veteran. In fact, the last time that there was no veteran in this category was in 1999.

SPEAKER_01: 2:28:20

I will say, yeah, I mean, in 1999 they nominated American Beauty, The Cider House Rules, The Sixth Sense, The Insider, and the win went to the Matrix, a film that was honored for sound. All of them were freshman nominees and they had never been honored before. Um, interestingly enough, there were veterans to nominate. So this branch back in 1989, more than 25 years ago, very made a very conscious decision to say, I'm going to leave the veterans out because there was a veteran editor, possibly the GOAT in this category, Walter Murch, um, for the Tanthor Mr. Ripley. But uh by the time nominations came out, you know, the stock for Tanther Mr. Ripley was so low that it didn't score a nomination. Um, but there was also a veteran editor for um Milosh Foreman's film, Man on the Moon. And so you had films to consider. Um you could have made the odd solo nomination just for a veteran, or a veteran could have shown up in one or two categories. Ripley was nominated, um, even if it wasn't widely nominated. Um, but they consciously chose not to include them and to just include first-time nominees who all repped, you know, best picture movies, or you know, um, what certainly would have been a best picture movie had there been 10 in The Matrix in 1999. Um, so it's never impossible. Right, but it's very rare, but you have to go back all the way to 1999. Um, but it's not impossible.

SPEAKER_02: 2:29:43

Right. And I think one of the issues is okay, so I think the first place we go to is what is this pool of quote unquote veterans that can even make the list? Exactly. If we look at the BAFTA long list, uh we look at who what veterans were cited there, that would leave us with uh 28 years later, Bogonia, F1, and a House of Dynamite. Um, something that did not make the shortlist in the BAFTA and uh actually did not make the shortlist last year either was Wicked. And Wicked is another veteran that, you know, if somehow Wicked managed to get a nomination in editing, a second nomination in editing after part one, right? You know, they would be considered a veteran. And um, you know, again, the BAFTA missed them last year, so it's not odd that they're not there this year either. Um, that being said, it was very weird for Wicked to even get that first one. Right. Um, and so you know, to get it for I think a lesser film is would be odd. Um, so if we focus on those uh one, two, three, four, four films, correct? Right. Um it's tough because a film like Bogonia um uh has been doing pretty well in terms of precursors and and being mentioned in the industry. Again, I got the BAFTA longest mention, it got the PGA mentioned, um, and actually got several mentions at the BAFTA. Um and F1 um has been getting mentions as well at you know at the BAFTA, at the Sound Designers Guild, at the PGA. Um, I think both of those films stand to get nominations at the Ace Eddy, right? You know, when the nominations come out. Um so I think that if we're gonna contemplate a veteran spot, I think we'd be contemplating between the two of them.

SPEAKER_01: 2:31:22

Right. And I I don't think that's a bad, a bad way to go. Um, you know, at one point a house of dynamite sounded good. They even gave it that solo nomination, the Critic Choice Award, which was kind of ridiculous. Um, you know, this category, we talk about sibling categories, film editing and sound tend to be cousin categories. They speak to each other, they speak to each other as both occurring in the post-production phase of making a film. Um, and so you know, having F1, for example, be such a formidable contender for sound welcomes the idea that it can pop up in film editing. I think where you and I go back and forth is yes, uh, for the past 20 plus years, we've had a veteran. Um, but there's also been a little bit of a recent trend among the film editing branch where if you examine their nominees and you analyze them, something that becomes really apparent is that they're really um siding with films that are best picture nominees, that are acting nominees, that are writing nominees. And so they're kind of weaning off the idea of including pure spectacle here. And so, for example, I'll say as an example, uh, a good comparison. Um, Joseph Kaczynski's Top Gun Maverick was nominated here. Yeah, right. And that's a fantastic parallel to F1. Yeah, except that Maverick was a best picture nominee, which I guess F1 isn't completely out of the woods on yet. It could still happen, but it was also a screenplay nominee. And I think we're saying that that bridge is too far for F1 to cross. Right. Um, and and aside from that, what you'll often get here are um are acting nominees. And so we know that F1 won't be crossing that bridge. Um but I do wonder if in everyone's concentration to search out for a veteran, they're overlooking the fact that this branch, you know, with nominations, for example, surprise nominations for nominees like Anatomy of a Fall, um, nominees like Tar, where their focus is on is on story and performance and not necessarily spectacle. Even like that surprise nomination or possibly unexpected nomination for Wicked last year, it had acting nominees. It was a picture nominee and it had acting nominees. So is that the Achilles heel for a movie like F1?

SPEAKER_02: 2:33:41

Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think you bring up an excellent point. Um, I think where we have an issue is that we are so limited with the contenders to consider for, you know, that veteran spot um that, you know, even if you were to consider a film like Bogonia, for example, which could get an acting nomination or two, um, could get very likely to get a screenplay nomination, maybe even gets best picture. You know, I don't feel that editors that that's gonna be the film that they're most drawn to, I guess I would say. I mean, it is well edited and it's one of my favorite films of the year, but um, it's very well done. But I for some reason I'm feeling that it's not, you know, as attention calling for them, the editing work in that film, as I I guess I would think that a film like uh F1 would be for them. Um, you know, and and and you know, films about you know racing do have a history of doing well in this category, you know, and um and so I just don't think that uh we have a lot of great options, you know. If the second best option is begonia, you know, this editor was nominated most recently, just a couple years ago, I believe, for poor things. Right. Um, is it too soon for a nomination? Again, that film was uh a huge juggernaut, which got double digits. Begonia is not gonna be that. Yeah, you know. Um, do they make that room, you know, for that veteran spot for a film like Begonia? It's it feels off to me.

SPEAKER_01: 2:35:05

I under I understand that. And again, he did he was nominated first for the favorite, which is again another double digit, a double double-digit film, um, again, another fantasy sort of period film, um, which Begonia is not, um, and it's not going to get anywhere near double digits. Um, that being said, I think the best comparison you have for this branch feeling the same or or or having the same reasons to include F1, I think the closest you can go to is the nomination for Baby Driver, which is the last time I think that a film is able to be nominated for this category in film editing without ever getting nods for um screenplay and acting and picture. Um, and again, most of those are a little bit a bridge too far for F1. Um and so that being the case, I mean, funnily enough, they're both driving movies, right? And so maybe there's a little bit of a secret formula there. Right. Um, I think it helps um that um we're talking about uh a veteran like uh Steven Marion, who who's a winner for traffic, who's um was uh mentioned for The Revenant, um, known for Babel. Um so like he has a reputation of doing these serious-minded projects that have these multiple points of view, um, and also these sort of odd tour projects. So maybe they won't feel like too bad about nominating a spectacle film, knowing that he's you know a uh a very sort of serious-minded artist who who will take on, you know, um more prestigious films in the future. Um, but I do think that's a little bit odd, and I do wonder if in everyone's focus to fill out the spot with the veteran, they aren't overlooking a greater trend. Um, something else that I think does come up for me at least is the idea that you know, I always go back to the surprise nominees here and what they can reveal about the branch. And I and I go to, for example, Emilia Perez, um, and I go to um Anatomy of the Fall, and I go to Tar, and I do wonder, again, as you've said in other categories, are we getting more international here? Right. You know, um, and not only is the Begonia veteran editor Yorgos an international pick, but you know, what about what about sentimental value getting in here?

SPEAKER_02: 2:37:23

Right. You know, I think you bring up an excellent point, and we've discussed it. And it's that again, we are starting to see more of a foreign presence in all categories, including editing. In fact, you just saw it last year with Amelia Perez and the year before that with Anatomy of Fall. Um, and so what I don't like about if and and to your point of uh editors probably are very possibly prioritizing performance and storytelling more than spectacle. Sentimental value is a perfect fit for that because of its uh it's it's very strong acting and its storytelling. However, both Anatomy of a Fall and Emilia Perez were mentioned, for example, at the European Film Awards. Um, and this year, Sentimental Value did really well at the European Film Awards. Um I don't know the number exactly, but you know, a good eight. Yeah, a good amount, and yet was not nominated for best editing. Um, that calls out to me, you know, as you know, possibly this being a foreign language film that the editing is not, you know, as attention-calling for editors at large, internationally and domestic, as films like Amelia Paris and Anatomy Will Fall. I think that's something to deeply consider. Meanwhile, a film like Begonia, which has an international appeal, did manage to get nominated at the European Film Awards, did manage to get a BAFT along this mention, um, uh, is a veteran, you know. So there's more, oddly enough, going for Begonia than there is for sentimental value.

SPEAKER_01: 2:38:53

Even on the international side of it.

SPEAKER_02: 2:38:55

Exactly. Um, I know that if you see sentimental value, you know, I saw it more recently again. Um, you know, I do feel there's a lot of cut to blacks, you know, and uh Joachim Cheer, you know, the way he kind of fashions his films have this sort of very fluid uh aesthetic and feel to it. I don't know if that's something that would be an attraction for editors or a detraction. I'm not sure. But I do know that the imprint that a film like Tar had in its editing in in these other um uh uh precursors along the way hasn't really existed for a film like Sentimental Value. It doesn't hasn't really gotten uh cited for its um editing um, you know, in you know, critics groups and and and bigger awards groups, and a film like Tar, which surprised many when it got an iron for editing, still had a little bit bigger of a footprint. Um, I think that's something to consider as well.

SPEAKER_01: 2:39:47

I mean, I the thing I do like about Sentimental Value is that the editor has been working for like 20 years, a little bit more than 20 years, and that they that they have branched out into other films. So you're talking about. The same editor, not just of a lot of Joaquim Trier's films, which again they tend to reward. So I remember when they nominated um the editor, I believe, for um Emilia Perez, they have a long history of working with um Jacques Audillard. And so this is very much an editor who's worked throughout the career of Joaquim Trier, much like the editor of Ryan Kugler Sinners, who's gonna get in this year. But he's also worked on titles, for example, like The Apprentice, which was nominated last year, and like Beginners, which was which was a winner in 2011. And at one point, um, was even involved in the editing of um the Independence Day sequel. Um and so I do I do wonder if his name isn't familiar enough to be to members of the uh branch where they're gonna maybe consider putting him in if the best veteran we have is something that we're not we haven't been leaning towards for a while. Right. Um I I at one point I remember some people were bringing up the idea of it was just an accident getting in here, and I thought that was an impossibility, but I do think that Olivier has the um the Olivier, the editor of Sentimental Value, does have the filmography, the resume to back up a possible surprise nomination. Now, on the negative side, something that I didn't like beyond the European Film Award nomination snub that you mentioned was that it was not listed at the BAFTA long list for editing, which I thought was could have been, you know, really telling. Which I believe both Anatomy of Fall and Emilia Perez were. As as well, as well as um, as well as I believe, um excuse me, no, tar was not listed, but you're right, Anatomy of Fall was listed at the BAFTA long list, as was um Emilia Perez. Um and even Tar, which was not listed. Tar was listed in categories like sound and cinematography and sentimental value didn't really go past casting. Yeah, it kind of didn't do so well in long lists, both American and British. Um, yeah, um, and especially just the idea that the British um long list, you know, having possibly a little bit more of an international footprint, um, that they still weren't able to put him in. And again, he, for example, Olivier is the editor of The Apprentice, and The Apprentice was all over the long lists in the BAFTA last year. Remember when The Apprentice was listed as one of the best, as one of the 10 finalists for best films at the BAFTA. And so it kind of I think is maybe a little even more damning that they couldn't find room for Olivier for sentimental value um on this list.

SPEAKER_02: 2:42:24

I think on the plus side, you know, we've seen a trend that the uh nominees for best editing tend to be PGA nominees. Yeah. Correct? And so on the plus side, Sentimental Value did manage to squeak in there into the PGA 10, which you know, I think gives it some more validity, the possibility that it could possibly sneak into editing. Um, but I don't like it getting snubbed in these other places, right? Um, so I think beyond something that popped into my head right now is, you know, do you think, you know, with this idea of emphasis on performance, could that benefit a film like A House of Dynamite? Um, because it's such a cast ensemble driven film, and you know, tension is such an important aspect of that film as well. And maybe they favor something like that, even if it's a solo nom for editing.

SPEAKER_01: 2:43:11

I mean, I think it's fascinating, but I would have thought it had a better shot if it was shortlisted for sound at the Oscars, and it was not. And again, these are cousin categories. Now it's not unheard of for a film to get like an editing nomination and nothing else. I remember a similar scenario occurring in 1993 for like the commitments, but it doesn't tend to happen. If it does happen, I think it's an extreme scenario, which would be very funny. Um, they are veterans and and they're very well rewarded. You know, um, Kirk Baxter obviously wonning a lot of Academy Awards of his work with David Fincher. So I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility, but I do think it's unlikely.

SPEAKER_02: 2:43:45

Unlikely. And you know, speaking of other foreign films, because again, there has been in the last few years, you know, some kind of presence of international in the five, you know, when we look at other contenders like The Secret Agent, which is really well edited, this was just an accident you mentioned it, Northern Choice, Surratt, none of those made the PGA, obviously.

SPEAKER_03: 2:44:04

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:44:04

And I think that lessens their case as well. It's it's a weird scenario where in terms of international, and there should be, I feel like it feels right to include some sort of international ness in this category, internationality. Um, sentimental value is the best choice, right? But it's missing key things that other previous heavy hitter international films um that end up making this category, making it to this category. Um, it's it's missing some of those things.

SPEAKER_01: 2:44:30

Right. But I will say at the same time, like I remember like in 2022, like an international contender they decided not to nominate was Al Quire on the Western Front. And I think that was very much a decision to, I would rather include sort of the psychological discipline of Tar, which was not less at BAFTA, than to include sort of the maybe excess and abundance of all quiet. There's something a spectacle as there's a spectral aspect of it. Absolutely, there's very much a spectacle aspect of it, which they again, it's just maybe not what they're going for right now.

SPEAKER_03: 2:45:02

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:45:02

Um, the other conversation we have to have is, you know, if we're committed to the idea of putting a veteran in, which uh film does it buck? And so we have two spots taken and three open, one should be a veteran, which essentially means that the rest of the films are fighting for two spots, and I think the the popular thinking is that the the the three strongest films fighting for it are likely the DJ, the remnants of the DJ five, which is Hamnet, Marty, and Frankenstein. And and so which way do you go?

SPEAKER_02: 2:45:31

You know, it's very difficult because on on the one hand, you know, Frankenstein did make that back to the long list mention, and I think at the most recent sound designers, it it also got a mention. Yes. Um, which is good. Uh, but in general, it's been a little bit overlooked, you know, because it's it's it's just not a film that's being uh sort of synonymous with the idea of you know editing being at the forefront of it. And if you see the film, I think that's you understand why. Um, I think the favorites for those last two spots are Marty Supreme and Hamnet, obviously. Um, but there's a very big issue that I think not enough people are paying attention to, and it's that both Hamnet and Marty Supreme are co-edited by their directors. So uh Josh Safty is a co-editor on Marty Supreme and Chloe Zhao is a co-editor on Hamnet. And it has never happened where um, I believe we we we couldn't find an instance where two directors were mentioned in Best Editing. Right. Certainly, directors are being more present, present in in the editing category you saw last year. Sean Baker won both director and editing, so that's not surprising. But what is surprising is to have two cases of that and to have two instances where two filmmakers, uh two directors get nominated here.

SPEAKER_01: 2:46:48

That's that hasn't happened. Chloe Zhao herself is actually a great example here because she was nominated for No Medland. Right um back when she won Best Director and Best Picture, she was nominated in this category. Um, Quirone is another one that comes to mind. He he's an editor that was nominated for Gravity, won for Gravity, and was nominated for Children of Men. Um, so certainly you're right. The question is with the restrictions we have between minimal veterans, um, international films that maybe aren't um bubbling to the surface as much as much as they should be, does that force us into a scenario where we're going to nominate two directors at the same time? I also want to mention, again, between the two of them, Josh is the one that has not been nominated here. You know, Chloe Zhao has. Josh hasn't been nominated for any Academy Award, much less one for editing. And then he's also editing alongside his co-writer, Ronald Bronstein. Um, I don't know if that's a plus or a minus, but I think you and I are certainly sort of saying, is there room for for two directors?

SPEAKER_02: 2:47:47

Right. It it certainly feels extremely odd. Um, and I think, you know, even when we reveal our top five, I remain very uncertain about it. Right. And who know, you know, I don't know if we'll be flip-flopping at the end, but it's certainly one that is a little bit of a head scratcher. Now I would. So something something else to consider is that, you know, when we're talking about uh a best actor winner and a best actress winner, you know, for the last few years, the trend has been that the winners for the lead acting categories, those films tended to be in the editing category. You know, um, going as far back as, you know, 2018, for example, um, those lead acting winners were in films that were nominated in editing. So, you know, whether whether or not that holds enough weight this year, you know, remains to be seen. But certainly that's something that's going for Hamnet and something like Marty Supreme to both get in. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 2:48:41

I I I'll also say the other thing that I wanted to mention in terms of being difficult to choose between those two films at co-edited by their directors is um that Chloe Zhao this time is working with Alfonso Goncalves.

SPEAKER_03: 2:48:55

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:48:55

Right. Um and he has a little bit of a history.

SPEAKER_02: 2:48:58

Right. He's never been nominated and has been working for a very long time. Um uh he's a fantastic editor with a very uh prolific and uh uh celebrated, celebrated and uh dynamic filmography. He's a guild winner, he right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:49:14

Yeah, he was a guild winner for his his work on mostly television, I mean true detective, right?

SPEAKER_02: 2:49:20

So it's hard to picture them having the opportunity to finally welcome into the club and give him a first nomination and then not take it. Pass it up, you know. It's it's strange, right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:49:32

Um this is the editor of Carol. This is the editor of I'm Still Here, which was the best picture nominee last year. Yeah, and so I think you're right. Is this another occasion, not unlike Max Richter, which we were talking about earlier, of like right time, right situation? It's just a moment to finally nominate Afon Tukon Calvis.

SPEAKER_02: 2:49:48

Right, exactly, 100%. And so I think that's going in his favor. Um, I think uh going in this favor of Mary Supreme is that again, the Safties tend to have very sort of chaotic driven films um that incorporate a lot of editing. So I mean, you know, there's much more, you know, in your face editing than there in Marty Supreme than there is in Hamlet. Um that could play a factor, or could it play a detractor? Right. You know, and that editors think it's too overly edited or, you know, too, let's create chaos for let's create chaos' sake. You know, um, it remains to be seen because this will be the first time that we see how the Academy reacts to a Safety film at large. Um it's it's it's it's difficult.

SPEAKER_01: 2:50:31

I think the other thing that I would just mention is that, you know, as far as Frankenstein, something that's kind of fascinating is that the editor and contention there um has a history in the industry of working on, you know, bigger films like the John Wick series. And certainly those films have their fans, even if the guild isn't one of them. Um, but I think it's also interesting because I feel like um looking back at uh their filmography, they have a little bit of a history of working on Guillermo de Toro's films when they were starting out, um, you know, like in an assistant level, and then this is their first opportunity to come back and work with Guillermo as the lead editor, and it was a very positive experience, but it's kind of a funny story that's online about how that was able to happen for the editor Evan Schiff. Um, that's kind of a funny story if it comes full circle. Um, that being said, you know, Evan Schiff, the the film editor, doesn't have as much accolades um for his work because again, they are sometimes they're smaller films, or they're just different films, you know, like more um blockbuster films, um, popcorn films, um mainstream films. Um but i I do think there's something to be said, and we'll revisit this, I think, across many categories. Just the idea of when Netflix has two films in Best Picture, it doesn't that often give them a better chance of landing one of them at least into a category. And you know, last time they had two was Power the Dog and Don't Look Up, and they were both nominated. And the time before that it was Irish, Irishman and uh Marriage Story, and Irishman was still nominated. And so I do I do wonder if the Netflix holding two best picture positions maybe gives an advantage to Frankenstein showing up here.

SPEAKER_02: 2:52:12

Um it's a and it would affect our issue of having two directors beside it here, exactly, exactly. Um it's it's or possibly, as you said, um uh not having a veteran and having uh Frankenstein and a list of all newbies. Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 2:52:28

Um, so I think this category can go a lot of different ways, and it's very tough um to stick to a specific call right now, and I think there is wiggle room. Um, I think right now we're leaning towards a situation, but this is certainly one of the categories that I think is a little bit harder to get a handle on because you have so many um different sort of statistics that favor one side conflicting sides, so to speak. Yeah, and so the question is you're really just betting on which one's gonna hold out and which of the others is gonna you know fall by the white side. Exactly. And so what are we thinking right now?

SPEAKER_02: 2:53:00

And so our final predictions, hopefully, uh for film editing are one battle after another, Sinners, Marty Supreme, Hamnet, and F1.

SPEAKER_01: 2:53:12

And on that note, um, let's end our uh discussion for today with a deep dive into the best international film category. Obviously, thus far, international films are playing a marginal part in our predictions thus far in this first leg of our of our series of episodes. So, where do you think um the chips fall in this category?

SPEAKER_02: 2:53:36

Well, let's just do a very quick rundown. We have a short list here as well, which is you know very useful of the ones that we're even contemplating. Um, the films were even uh the films that can get nominated, and that's Belen from Argentina, um, the secret agent from Brazil, it was just an accident from France, Sound of Falling from Germany, Homebound from India, the President's Cake from Iraq, Kokuho from Japan, All That's Left of You from Jordan, Sentimental Value from Norway, Palestine 36 from Palestine, No Other Choice from South Korea, Surat from Spain, Late Shift from Switzerland, Left-handed Girl from Taiwan, and the voice of Henri Jav from Tunisia. You know, this is a very interesting group of films. I think that if you uh if you look, everyone is on the uh notion that Neon could break history and be all five nominees. In fact, I think that's the favorite right now. The favorite is for a neon to get in for the secret agent. It was just an accident, um, uh sentimental value, no other choice, and Surratt that's the narrative, right?

SPEAKER_01: 2:54:42

That's what everyone's gonna be looking out for. Right. Um, and I think you and I both agree that only became um more of the favorite of what's gonna happen after those Oscar shortlists were revealed, right?

SPEAKER_03: 2:54:54

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 2:54:54

And you saw, for example, what was essentially the film that was easiest to kick out among those five, Surratt, show all up over the place. Right. Right. And all of a sudden the film where you sort of you know you sort of resisted, Neon can get all five, you know, Surrat, no one knows that filmmaker, it's too artsy, no one's gonna want to vote for it. Oh, what the hell, it just showed up everywhere. Right. Um, and then that being said, you know, there are films that underperformed, you know, no other choice didn't show up in very many places. Um, but it did have major Golden Globe nominations.

SPEAKER_02: 2:55:23

Um, and so well I will say that no other choice really underperformed in the Oscar short list, it really underperformed in the BAFTA long lists, as did most international films, right? True. Um, and so that's something to not overlook, as well as uh again, it would be history for Neon to do that, right? Um, we also have a group of films. Speaking of studios that are dominating this category, we have a group of films that are from Watermelon Pictures. Um, I believe three films, and that's The Voice of Hin Rajab, Palestine 36, and All That's Left of You are all under the Watermelon Pictures banner. So that's another company that's doing very well here. You got Mubi being represented by um, I believe uh Sound of Falling. Sound of Falling, a great film out of can. Uh Sony Picture Classics that does well in this category are being represented by the President's Cake, which would be the first time that Iraq makes it into the foreign language film category, which is also would be historic of the big deal.

SPEAKER_01: 2:56:23

Which is usually a big deal for this branch.

SPEAKER_02: 2:56:25

And it's usually something that uh encourages them to embrace you. And if you've seen The President's Cake as we have, you know, it would make perfect sense in this category. It's the kind of film that I think would definitely appeal to members. Interestingly enough, something to point out is that in order to vote for the uh in the voting process to come up with these 15, you had to see voters had to see a certain number of films to qualify to be able to vote. Um, and now to select the five that are going to make it to the very end, voters have to see all 15. Right. Um, and that's a new uh set of rules that wasn't there, you know, previously.

SPEAKER_01: 2:57:03

And they will likely knock out some voters because some voters will say, Yeah, um, I think I won't.

SPEAKER_02: 2:57:08

Yeah. Um, but I think it also favors films that A, um, a majority of voters might respond to as opposed to just a select group of voters. That's A. And B, uh uh voters that have been uh more aware of these films, um, you know, and the international circuit, and you know, Cannes, Berlin, you know, Venice, etc. Um, so I think a film like, for example, Surratt should do very well because I think that if you're seeing all the films and you're aware of the films that are making um this short list, you're aware of that film and you're responding to that film. That's one reason I think it did well in the long in the short lists. Right. Um, so basically I think it's a race to determine which film is going to knock neon off the pedestal of being able to, yeah, if any, to complete that history.

SPEAKER_03: 2:57:59

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:58:00

Um, and like I said, you know, I considering the rules, I think the films with the most visibility are gonna be the ones that are most favorite to be to make the top five. We do know, for example, that Kokuho also made the shortlist for makeup and has had some some noise surrounding it. You know, there was a screening a while back, right? Tom Cruise was a part of that screening, so I think people are watching that film. It's Japan's most successful film of the year, which is great, yeah. Right, that's a big deal.

SPEAKER_01: 2:58:27

Um No Other Choice just did well in the US right now. It came out and it did well, but I think it did well in South Korea, it's one of the top earning films there. And now it was significantly below what a film like The Handmaid earned back in uh 2016. So that's something to be aware of, right? Um, and then something else to be aware of is you know, little things like we already talked about the historical context of a nomination for Iraq in this category for the president's cake. Sweeney Picture Classics finally got back their mojo. Um, they're coming off the win for I'm still here, got nominated for the teacher's lounge. But historical context, period, is a um a factor here, an asset here. And films, for example, like The Voice of Humor Jab and Balen, both of those films have that, right? Right.

SPEAKER_02: 2:59:15

Also, something to look out that that I noticed while I was um preparing for this conversation is that um number one, Netflix does well in this category, and they have the left-handed girl. So they they do actually really well in this category, but it's not unheard of for them to miss. But that is something to consider for left-handed girl. That being said, you know, Sean Baker is attached to that project. And if you've seen the film like I have and can, you know, there's you know, the Sean Baker energy is present in that film, and voters might feel like, you know, we did that last. You know, we we've visited Sean Baker, we've celebrated Sean Baker last year. Let's, you know, do something new this year. Right. Um, another thing to consider is that the camera image, which is one of the most uh prominent uh uh awards platforms. For uh the cinematographers. Um, Late Shift from Switzerland uh won the top prize there, I believe. And um uh that's something similar that happened, I think, last year when the girl with the needle, I think, did well in that uh in that awards uh platform and was able to get into you know foreign language film. Right. Um, and and I wasn't expecting it to.

SPEAKER_01: 3:00:24

Homebound has Marty's an executive producer, right? Um, started streaming on Netflix right in time for voters to start watching it, so that helps.

SPEAKER_03: 3:00:32

Right.

SPEAKER_01: 3:00:32

Um, and uh all that's left of you was a big hit from Sundance, something like Pastine 36. Like, I haven't seen the film, but what I do know based on the trailers is that it has sort of an old school energy that is going to appeal to some voters, like just an old school um epic um feels a little stuffy to me, but I feel like that could very much appeal to them, right?

SPEAKER_02: 3:00:58

Exactly. And so again, in that race to determine which neon film or which film is going to, you know, take out a neon film, right?

SPEAKER_01: 3:01:07

Um and which neon film is at the bottom of the totem pole, right?

SPEAKER_02: 3:01:11

Um, you know, it's not the easiest task, but my eyes automatically land on the voice of Henrajab. Um, number one, the Oscars in general should have some presence from uh a film that won an award at Venice. Um, and this year, you know, Alexander Payne's jury gave it to a wide variety of films, not many of which stand to um, you know, make an impact in the race um or even be considered for awards. Uh, one of the few ones would be The Voice of Hin Rajab, which won basically second place and was probably close to winning the big award. And if it had, it'd probably be a completely different story with a film like this even competing for Best Picture, um, given its timeliness. Um, and so, you know, the filmmaker behind The Voice of Hin Rajab has been nominated in the past. Um, she's had a film get into the foreign language category and the documentary film category. The uh people, the team behind the voice, the voice of Hin Rajab, you know, if you look at you know the producers, it's a lot of very well-named, uh well-regarded uh uh figures. Plan B is attached to it, Rooney Maher is attached to it, um Joaquin Phoenix is attached to it.

SPEAKER_01: 3:02:29

Um you you have the producer of uh Zone of Interest who's a nominee for that. You have the producer of uh Navalni who won uh an award for documentary. Right. And so certainly it has a lot of support um from these you know figures in the industry.

SPEAKER_02: 3:02:44

Right. And interestingly enough, as well, we cannot um overlook that the voice of Henry Job was nominated for best film at the European Film Awards. Yeah. So I think all those things strengthen the case that the voice of Hin Rajab should not go empty-handed, yeah, come awards time.

SPEAKER_01: 3:03:00

Or it's gonna be tough to deny. You know, I mean, people to be, I think you brought it up in one of our previous episodes if you want to, if you guys want to check it out. Um, but just that idea of everyone talks about the neon five that got in among the 15. There's a watermelon three in there, yeah, right. And it's very difficult for you know, um, these distributor studios to get multiple people in there, and certainly works in their favor when they have multiple contenders. Um, you can look at last year's um Netflix, Simulate Perez, um uh the um fill the entry um make money before grandma dies. Um that helps. And so I do think that three entries from Watermelon show strength amongst amongst the voting members who watch those films. Yeah, and it would make a lot of sense for that to be sort of the distributor um that kind of breaks the that breaks the five from Neon. I think that would make a lot of sense. I think the Venice point you made is excellent. Um, I think historical context is important because the neon five are all fictional. Yeah, you know, Surrat, no other choice, um Sentimental Value is just an accident, uh uh Secret Agent. Um, they're all fictional works. Um Secret Agent and just an accident are are grounded in a context that is, you know, really certainly they're they're certainly having a discussion with uh a historical moment. Um, but that being said, there's just no real um figure, for example, like and I'm still here, right? And it doesn't have to always be biographical, but some kind of real figure um around the film I think helps. And I think that's something else going for Heinraj Jab, right? Um you talked about the mention at the European Film Award, which was I think really significant, yeah, right? Um, because you know it isn't necessarily strictly speaking, um sort of like European, European sort of like again, it was just an accident where it's nominated for best for the European Film Awards, but you know, not much European in it, you know, it's very much a story about Iran. Um, but uh the other thing that I think is significant, what do you make of the inclusion of Catra Benhanya in the BAFTA long list for best director?

SPEAKER_02: 3:05:11

Right. I mean, yeah, I think that is also significant, even though again the BAFTAs have a specific rule for directors that they want to, you know, have equal representation, so they include half man, half female, but obviously she landed at the top tier of female filmmakers.

SPEAKER_01: 3:05:26

I mean, I think it's important that like she was still able to be listed, for example, over someone like Nia DeCosta, who you would imagine um being sort of campaigned by Amazon could be in a better position, right? And so, while you're right, there is a policy that helps um build the more inclusive slate of 10. You know, I think I do think it's meaningful that she's there because it goes to show you that her film is being watched. Um, and uh her film is possibly being watched more than um a couple of other ones. Um, for example, Left Handed Girl didn't did not show up. Um so I I think that's meaningful and in the same way that I think it's meaningful that um no other choice did not show up at the BAFTA long list for adapted screenplay, while The Secret Agent did for original, right? Um and it was just an accident and sentimental value, right? And so I definitely think that we're sort of um looking at the right film to create an upset. And the question is, are we predicting the right film to fall flat?

SPEAKER_02: 3:06:29

Right. One quick thing, you know, I think that there's a difference between us trying to see which film can upset the neon history making moment. Um, but I I find it highly, I mean, right now, I think it's difficult to imagine that there would be more than one neon film failing, given that it was just an accident, sentimental value, and now even the secret agent stands so firm in the race for best picture, right? You know, or such heavy contenders for best picture at the Academy Awards. You know, it's really hard to, you know, take those three out. And then when you consider how well Surratt has done, you know, in the uh short list for the Oscar shortlist, it's hard to imagine that that film wouldn't at least factor into uh a foreign language film. So really, I think that we're only looking at a failure of one film to be able to make it to Neon, uh to be able to make it to the top five and then break neon streak. And that's no other choice. Right. Even though no other choice did well at the Golden Globes, you're right, it has done well with critics groups. It hasn't really done well at the Oscars in terms of short lists. I mean, it did have a very poor showing, it also had a very poor showing at the BAFTA. And I also want to point out that there's something considered with No Other Choice in that part Chang Wuk earlier. There's earlier, I mean, last year faced a lot of uh, you know, backlash within some sections of the industry because of accusations of breaking the uh uh strike, the strike, uh the writer's the writer's strike when that was going on, you know, and he got eventually got banned from the WGA. Right. Um, and we still don't really know how much that could come into effect when voters are considering whether to nominate a Park Chan Wu film uh for any Oscar. Right. Um, and right now, considering how well placed the other four neon films are, we would say that the one that's most endangered to not make it is no other choice. Right. Um, despite the acclaim, despite that it's one of the best films of the year, it's the one that's at the you know, at the lower end, the the lowest end of the five.

SPEAKER_01: 3:08:38

It doesn't help, I think, right? That like Parchon Mook and all his films have had trouble here, right? Whether it's decision to leave or um uh The Handmaiden, you know, he has a little bit of trouble breaking that barrier. Um, and if you kind of we did a little bit of of digging, but you know, South Korea has only gotten in here once and that was when Parasite was able to win. Um, and for as much cinemas and culture, really pop culture that South Korean produces, it's a surprisingly no low number. Yeah, 100%. I think this is a really timely piece, one of his more timely ones that could really resonate um on a global scale. But I you can't deny that it's been difficult for him to, you know, get over that hurdle. You add the controversy that you were just referencing, it could just make things more difficult.

SPEAKER_02: 3:09:29

Um I also want to say, you know, uh, you know, I certainly don't think this way, but I don't put it past the academy to, you know, that some members might feel that, you know, again, you were mentioning the last time South Korea popped up here was for parasite, then some people might say that there's some DNA being shared between both of those films. Oh, certainly. Um, possibly that might be something that makes it less attractive for some voters, possibly. And um, interestingly enough, Tunisia has only been recognized once, I believe, also, um, for another Cother Bahania film. Yeah. Um, uh, so it's sort of like a race for which one of those two would score a second. Which country will score a second nomination. Right. Um, yeah. And so I think that, you know, some people I think are not considering uh largely enough, you know, how how uh how vulnerable another choice might be.

SPEAKER_01: 3:10:24

The other thing I kind of like that we've sort of narrowed down the conversation to these two movies is that they fit perfectly into that sort of dynamic that you were saying exists within the academy of, you know, you want to have a film from Venice.

SPEAKER_02: 3:10:37

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01: 3:10:37

And you got a Venice winner in uh Voice of Humor Job, and you have what was controversially the big snub out of Venice. That's what I wanted to bring up.

SPEAKER_02: 3:10:48

That's what I wanted to bring up. That, you know, we can neglect that um, let's see, in Venice, uh No other choice went blank and didn't get any uh and didn't get any awards, even though it was highly favored to win something. That's uh decision that was made by a group of filmmakers who obviously thought other films were more impressive. Interesting. Um also interestingly, I think we would have be having a much different conversation if No Other Choice had won Vence.

SPEAKER_00: 3:11:15

Oh, yeah.

SPEAKER_02: 3:11:15

If that were the case, we would be talking about No Other Choice getting into Best Picture. Yeah. Um uh I also think that it matters that a film like uh Decision to Leave was able to capitalize on the moment and win the best director prize at Cannes and still fall short of getting into foreign language film that year. I believe it didn't even make the shortlist. I might be I might be mistaken, but I don't I think it might have even missed the shortlist that year. Um so I just think there's a lot of a lot here suggesting that No Other Choice is both the weakest of the neon films and also perhaps very likely to miss out on this nomination.

SPEAKER_01: 3:11:55

Right. I mean, I I I think I like the the scenario you've set up where um we could end up seeing an upset and Heen Rajab um is able to take the spot of um of Parchan Wuk and and decision to leave, which was shortlisted, just he falls short again. And I think the situation surrounding the WGA can't help. Um again, remember this is a category opened to all voters, right? You know, um they just have to meet the criteria of watching the films to be eligible to cast that vote. But all voters can can um cast a vote here.

SPEAKER_02: 3:12:37

And I also I also mention that also that you know I don't think the voice of Him Rajab is a perfect film by any means. Um but I think it's an effective film. And I think that when you place a voter having to see all these films, that's a film that's gonna stick out because of you know the innovation that it's having and and the and the and the technique that it's having of incorporating you know Henry Job's real voice, which can't help but really, you know, pierce your heart, you know, when you're experiencing the film.

SPEAKER_03: 3:13:07

Right.

SPEAKER_02: 3:13:07

I think that'll go a long way in you know having voters who watch all 15 have that be a film that really sticks out to them right at the very end.

SPEAKER_01: 3:13:17

Right. Um you know, I think I think it makes a lot of sense. Um, I do want to give like one last shout out to you know, don't sleep on Iraq making history here with President's Cake. Right. Um same thing. I don't don't sleep on, you know, um, for example, Past 936 sneaking in here. Um, these are things that can still happen. Is the Surratt spot as sewn up as we think? The Oscar shortlists would make us think so, right? If the Oscar shortlist did not exist or it had missed so many pivotal mentions there, then certainly I would take Surrat as, you know, too um adventurous of a film for the more conventional Oscar voter. But all those mentions that it got, and including a mention, for example, like casting at BAFTA, I think is an excellent sign for it's resonating.

SPEAKER_02: 3:14:06

Right. And the other thing that I want to point out is that when we consider the neon films of the secret agent, it was just an accident, sentimental value and Surratt, they're all can winners. Yeah, they're all winners at can. No other choice is a loser at Venice. Yeah. You know, in a way it can't help but stick out. Yeah, you know, um, and again, I love No Their Choice. It's one of my favorite films of the year. It absolutely deserves to be nominated here. Um, but I can't help but feel it's the weakest. Right. And the voice of the Him Rajab feels like it should not go empty-handed.

SPEAKER_01: 3:14:38

I agree. And I think to me, I just it it's echoed in the uh BAFTA inclusion of Katra Benhani and best director, and the BAFTA omission of um No Their Choice, an adapted screenplay. And the European Film Award nomination. And the European Film Award nomination for um Heinrajab.

SPEAKER_02: 3:14:54

So right now, our final prediction for foreign language film is Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, Surratt, and The Voice of Hinra Jab. All right, and that is a wrap on our first episode devoted to predicting the upcoming Academy Awards, the nominations. Um, we intend to have our second group of uh predictions up later this week, um, and our final one, our final episode dedicated to predictions early next week. Um we went through a lot today.

SPEAKER_01: 3:15:29

Yeah, we did a lot. Um, we got some pretty um, I think, uh bold predictions, and I think we pointed out some significant loopholes that people are overlooking. Um, it's an exciting time. Oscar voting is going on as we speak. Um, so stick with us. We're gonna break down the rest of the categories. We're building up to um everyone's favorite categories in our third episode, including best picture, acting awards, screenplay. Um catch up on our website. We have um updated Oscar predictions there and precursor awards. And um you can follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon, visit our website at frames and flicker.com for Oscar Predictions. Um, thank you so much for joining us. Um, we will be with you again shortly for the second batch of Oscar nomination predictions. Um, until then, uh, this is Joseph.

SPEAKER_02: 3:16:20

And this is Jules, and it's been a pleasure.

SPEAKER_01: 3:16:26

If you've been enjoying the Academy Anonymous podcast and want to support the work we're doing, there's a voluntary support link in the show notes. Totally optional. That's the way to help us keep the podcast going. Thank you for listening.

SPEAKER_02: 3:16:41

The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP calling forward slash forward slash Creative Commons dot org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.

SPEAKER_01: 3:17:11

Disclaimer. The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.