Academy Anonymous
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Join us on our noble (futile! compulsive!) mission to track the contenders, mourn the flop-aroonis, cut-down the winners, champion the over-looked and generally forecast the state of the race with “100% accuracy" (results may vary).
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Academy Anonymous
Oscar Season 2025-2026: Final Oscar Predictions for SHORT FILMS, DOCUMENTARY, VISUAL EFFECTS, SOUND DESIGN & MAKEUP
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Final Oscar Predictions — Shorts, Documentary, Sound, VFX & Makeup | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS
In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we continue our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 2), breaking down some of the Academy Awards’ most volatile categories — where surprises, snubs, and late-breaking momentum define the race.
We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:
Live-Action Short Film — socially and politically urgent stories dominate, but can comedy or crowd-pleasers break through?
Animated Short Film — why adult-driven animation should outperform traditional, family-friendly shorts
Documentary Short Film — films reflecting current U.S. political and social unrest lead the field
Documentary Feature — the most unpredictable branch of the Academy, where presumed frontrunners are always at risk
Best Visual Effects — blockbuster spectacle regains control as prestige titles like Frankenstein and Sinners miss key ground
Best Sound — One Battle After Another and Sinners feel secure, while Sirât challenges Avatar: Fire and Ash
Best Makeup & Hairstyling — why international films and transformative real-life portrayals have the advantage
Whether you’re filling out an Oscar ballot, tracking awards season momentum, or just love dissecting the Academy Awards, this episode dives deep into the races most likely to shock on nomination morning.
Hey everyone, and welcome to a new episode of the Academy Anonymous podcast, where we're tracking all the latest news and updates on the Oscar race for the films that came out in 2025, the ceremony that's going to happen uh this spring in 2026. Um, as always, I'm your co-host Joseph.
SPEAKER_02:And I'm Jules. And as always, um, make sure to check out our Twitter, our official Twitter, which is at Academy Anon, and our official website, framesandflicker.com. They're both listed on the cover art for the podcast. And we have a lot to go through. The next two episodes we want to devote completely to um completing our predictions for the upcoming Oscar nominations announcement. Uh, you know, I've mentioned this on Twitter. I really do feel like predicting the nominees is really like the most fun aspect about all of this, more than you know, predicting the winners and whatnot. Right. Um, this is I think where you have to get most creative and be, you know, uh really on top of your game to try to get as many rides as you can. Right. We've done a lot of work to try to get everything really, you know, tight and ready and and and and correct. Right. Um, and so let's hope that uh it pays off.
SPEAKER_01:And so uh we're I mean, I will say just to set the stage a little bit, Oscar voting is done. Nominations will be revealed on Thursday. Um, our first uh episode, our episode last week tackled the first batch of predictions for categories like cinematography and production design, costume design. That's live now if you want to take a look. Um, so where should we start on the second batch?
SPEAKER_02:All right, so we're gonna start um with the shorts. And so let's start with uh live action shorts. These are always a killer, too.
SPEAKER_01:I will say that on average, most people are gonna pull out just two to three per each of the short categories. Yeah, per category. And so this is always um, these are always the categories that you're going to lose major points in.
SPEAKER_02:The 15 short films that were listed, shortlisted for the academy were Ado, which deals with a uh a gunman entering a high school or a uh theater class. Uh Jennifer Lewis, um, an esteemed actor, is the principal role, and I've heard that she gives a very strong performance in it, but I have not seen it. Amarella, I believe, uh competed in Cannes. I have seen that short, and it deals a little bit with uh the sort of um Asian experience uh the Asian community in Brazil and how they can feel secluded from the rest of their uh country. Uh Beyond Silence was a short film that you saw. Yeah, right.
SPEAKER_00:I was able to see that.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and it has to do with um you know a victim of sexual harassment, um abuse, trying to uh seek help. Um but uh the victim, interestingly enough, is also deaf. And um the individual trying to help them um has has their own history um with that issue.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um a uh short film uh from Senegal, uh the boy with the white skin, we have been able to see. Um, you know, an albino uh young boy who sent inside of a mine. Um and it's sort of a uh an artsy nebula short, sort of abstract, yeah. Abstract. Um but he, you know, supposedly has these uh sort of ingrained powers that can allow these miners to mine for gold. Right. At least that's sort of what I was picking up on. You as well.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, um, something akin to that. Or again, it's uh perceived, right?
SPEAKER_02:Right, yeah, exactly. A perceived sort of uh talent power. Um Butcher Stain is from Israel, um, of a uh Arab butcher that's accused of uh removing hostage posters. I have not seen that one. I don't think you have either. No, butterfly on a wheel, I think is a musician struggling with OCD and anxiety. We haven't seen that one. Um uh Dad's Not Home, which is an interesting short that I have not seen, but I have my eye on. Um Polish short uh won the um Student Academy Award, I believe. Yes, and um I think their father, it's uh it's it has to do with uh dementia, I believe. Right. And the father is struggling through that. And his children are, I think, trying to uh hide the fact that you know they have a father that is not uh well. Right. Um Extremist um is a Russian short um and it has actually a lot of uh notable names behind it. Right. Um, and we'll be talking about that short a little bit more shortly. Um to tell you right, we did see that short, and it's actually based on a real life story of a young woman who uh was uh performing an act of uh uh protest protest um and uh was then incarcerated for doing so. Uh a friend of Dorothy is a UK short that we have seen as well, um, starring a very uh talented and and comedic memorable um performance from Mary Marquez. Um yes, and um uh that is centers on a relationship between her and a young black man who um they're both sort of uh attracted to the arts and the relationship, friendship that they formed. Like she's uh becomes a mentor to him. Yes. Uh Jane Austen's period drama we have seen as well. Um, and uh it's sort of a riff on the Jane Austen uh world and sexual politics. In sexual politics, exactly. Um, you know, the period drama is very uh specific. Uh pun intended. Yeah. Um pantyhose, I believe, is a Finnish um short. Right. Um, I think a cat I have we haven't we haven't seen it, but a couple is going to an important gala, and I think they have a hole in their undergarments. Um, I think that's what it's about. Right. Uh the Perilcomb is a British short, and I think it has to do with a sort of mermaid uh sort of horror um aesthetic.
SPEAKER_01:One of the few sort of speculative um short films on this list.
SPEAKER_02:If we haven't seen that, Rock, Paper, Scissors was a short film that won uh last year, the BAFTA, um, and has to do with the uh Ukrainian-Russian conflict.
SPEAKER_00:Um uh I think also, I think, partly inspired by a true story.
SPEAKER_02:I agree, yeah, exactly. Partly inspired by a true story, and then the singers. Oh, we didn't we haven't gotten to see Rock, Paper, Scissors. The Singers we did get a chance to see. It's actually my favorite short, one of my favorite shorts I've seen this year. It's an incredible short, it's incredibly moving, and it's very enjoyable, very charming. And I think it was just aces. I thought it was fantastic.
SPEAKER_00:Agreed.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and uh, I certainly hope for a nomination for it.
SPEAKER_00:And uh, I don't want to spoil too much, but you know, it's sort of it's kind of an abstract short as well, yeah. Um, but also like widely accessible and um it kind of like emotionally speaking. Yeah. Um, so it's it's really just about uh a group of men hanging out at a bar. I don't think you'd have to say more than that, right?
SPEAKER_02:I think. Right. And then uh the last short is uh two people exchanging saliva, which we have also seen and has some people, uh some important names backing that film as well. Premiered at I think Showdown tell you, right? Yeah, and it's you know, this blossoming relationship between these two women, but it takes a very uh uh specific style, aesthetic approach. Um, and so those are the uh the 15 shorts.
SPEAKER_00:And it's a strong list this year.
SPEAKER_01:I will say, I think that from the ones that we have seen, we've seen uh I think a substantial amount, it's a strong list.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I you know, as always, I wish that I I wish that I could have seen all of them, yeah. Unfortunately, um, I think I have my favorites and I have some that I'm less less thrilled about. Right. But um I uh as far as our predictions go, we're sort of uh uh in between a strong core group, and I think the nominees will come out of this group, and that's the singers, uh Beyond Silence, Rock, Paper, Scissors, Adoo, A Friend of Dorothy, Extremist, Jane Austen's period drama, and Dad's Not Home. Right. Unfortunately, there are a group of films here that I have not seen, and so I'm gonna have to go on Instinct and what I think they're generally attracted to. Right. Um, so because I think that the singers is so accessible and so well done, and I believe you mentioned to me that that's I think Netflix just bought this, yeah. Right, and also I think someone's involved in it in it.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, there is, I believe, uh uh a team member who's a previous Oscar nominee, but on the documentary short side. Right. Um, so that that's I think that could help.
SPEAKER_02:I think that could help, but it's just such a it's just such a strong short that I I have a lot of faith that when um voters see it, they'll respond to it. Yeah, as do I. And just a reminder, this short category, along with I believe all the short categories, are open to um all members. Um and that's an important thing to you know understand when you're trying to predict these nominations. There's not a special live action branch that gets to vote for these. Not anymore. Not anymore. Um, and uh, but interestingly enough, and I think this is important, in order to vote for the five nominees, you have to see all 15 short films. Yeah. Um finalists. Right. So I think that if you opt to be to participate, you're also opting to see all 15. Right. How they regulate that to make sure that you saw 15. No idea. I don't know. I hope I'm hoping that it's a an accurate system that they're using. Right. Um, but that does, I think, uh, it should go into your, you know, process of you know how what you think is going to happen. You should you should have that in mind as you're trying to predict what as a whole they're going to like.
SPEAKER_00:Yes.
SPEAKER_02:The next short that I think we're we feel good about is Beyond Silence, yeah, which again I have not seen, but you have. I did, yeah. Um, and I think it's the kind of short that uh again, the social political messaging that's happening there with sexual harassment, you know, um, is the kind of thing that would resonate with them in this category.
SPEAKER_01:I agree. And I think like, you know, there's usually two or three shorts that have a heavier subject matter that voters tend to reward with a nomination, and this certainly qualifies. And you add to that that this is a yeah, this is an international short that I think that only makes it that much stronger. Um, I think it's a short that's gonna resonate with a lot of um viewers. It has a strong uh point of view, um, has really strong performances from the three leads. Um, and it there's a a a sort of engrossing factor to it. Um, and it's framed in a unique enough way where it's it's it's memorable. And so I think it it should be safe for the nomination. I think it's a dark horse for the win. Um, but yeah, I I do feel a little bit confident in that.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And I will say also, you know, um, the more pessimistic way of looking at some of these short categories is that there is um sociopolitical themes around many of them that get end up getting mentioned um for live action, documentary, even to some extent, animated sometimes. Oh certainly. And so, you know, that is true, and and you know, that can be a little bit uh frustrating. But sometimes these shorts are well done, even with those uh that kind of you know uh blatant right you know messaging that they're they're trying to get across. Yeah. Um, the next short that I think some pundits are feeling good about. I haven't seen it, so I'm going with my gut here, is rock, paper, scissors, mainly going with the fact that it won the BAFTA, but I don't want we shouldn't mistake that because it won the BAFTA award, it's destined to get an on it for an Oscar short list. I mean for an Oscar uh short category. Right. Um, I think it helps, but it's not a guarantee. Yeah. That being said, again, because of the timely context of it all, I think it's something, again, that stands to resonate with them. You know, uh a father and his son are operating like a makeshift hospital, like in, you know, right in the middle of the conflict, and uh, you know, uh enemy soldiers are closing in. And so I think that that's gonna resonate with them, but especially, you know, if you think back on last year's short, one that I think many thought was going to win live action, L E N, which dealt with, again, um, the immigration process. And of course, we're seeing a lot of that uh transcurring, uh transpiring, my apologies, um, here in the United States. Um, you know, the reason I bring up that short is because I think that short is done in such a way, you know, to create, you know, this tension, this very tense sort of experience. And I think that's something that they that that resonates with voters in these uh for these categories, you know, the more that the film feels, you know, uh this you know propulsive, tense, you know, experience exercise, I think the more that they uh tuned into it in a way. And so I'm I'm assuming that Rock, Paper, Scissors has that kind of it's is is using that as a tool.
SPEAKER_01:I I think everything you said is valid, and I'll add to that that usually there's maybe one or two spots um reserved your year for a short film, a live-action short film that has a little bit of a more ambitious production scale, if that makes sense. And so they're staging this, you know, during a time of war. And so you'll often see at least one of these five have a little bit um of a medier sort of production value, and and I think that this might fit that fill as well.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I agree. And then I think that's where it gets tougher. And so one film that I that I think we've agreed to include in five is Ado. Yeah. Uh with Jennifer Lewis. Um, this isn't a filmmaker that has a lot of credits, you know, he's very much starting out. Um it is about something that I think Again, very timely. Very timely, but also something that I think stands to resonate in other uh short categories. So Documentary Short has an awesome, uh spectacular, incredibly moving short, All the Empty Rooms, which deals uh with the same theme, you know, of children who uh we you know are lost because of gun violence and and high school and school shootings.
SPEAKER_00:And the theme itself has been sort of um spotlighted through various Oscar ceremonies, and you have to wonder if that would be a factor keeping it off the list.
SPEAKER_02:Exactly. Um that being said, we do think there's an asset to having a uh known actor at the front and center of your short. I have heard from people who've seen the short, again, we have not, that you know, it's a little bit by the numbers, it's a little bit unimaginative, it's a little bit, you know, direct, it's a little bit uh uh mediocre. Right. Um that being said, you know, it reminds me a little bit of a couple of years ago when uh David Oyoloa was in this Netflix short, you know. I uh you know, I think it was called the sort of the after or something like that, you know, which wasn't necessarily breaking new ground either as a short, you know, was very expected, you know, very, very predictable, a very predictable short that still got in. And I think something that helped was that he was at the front and center of the presence of David Oyolo. Um here I've heard that Jennifer Lewis Jennifer Lewis gives a very uh powerful, potent performance. I think that'll help. I think that'll help draw people's attention.
SPEAKER_01:Because it doesn't happen all the time, right? I mean, Jennifer Jennifer Lewis is a veteran actor, but she doesn't get the commanding lead performance very often. So that's already something that is is probably gonna appeal to some voters.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, exactly. Um, so even if it is a mediocre short film, I do think that that'll help. Um, I mean, according to some people, I do think that that will help.
SPEAKER_01:Uh I do also think that again, within this category, you'll usually see one or two films, a spot sort of reserved for a more pointed um, a short with a more pointed message, a more pointed um take on, like you said, a contemporary issue. And so I think of, for example, you've mentioned um Alien a bun a couple of times. I I Britney, the short with Brittany Snow, Red, Red, White, and Blue is another one that comes to mind. And I do think that it could sort of fit in that mold. And a lot of times, remember, if you're a voter who has the opportunity to see these shorts, I want to mention a couple things. Usually I want to say that if you're passionate enough to watch all 15 to then select five, you do it all the time, meaning this is something that you're invested on annually. I want to also say that if you probably invested in seeing all 15 live action, it's probably because you're in as invested to see all 15 animated. And that's why sometimes you and I say, Can can a theme really repeat, or are they going to say, I'd rather reward that theme in another short or in another category? Right. Um, so yeah, I do think that that's something that may be working against this short.
SPEAKER_02:Exactly. And all the empty rooms is a surefire nominee and documentary short. At least I hope I hope so. And and then that is again a very moving and very well done short film. Um, I think there, I think there's a lot of validity in what you're saying. You know, do they need to spotlight it twice? Well, they feel the need to, yeah. Um, and that's only something that we're we're pondering as we're as we're making uh our final predictions for all these short categories. Right. Um, then the last spot is really tough. Um because between a friend of Dorothy, uh Jane Austen's period drama, and Dad's Not Home, an extremist, it could kind of I I'm not I I'm not I'm not sure that I feel settled or comfortable thinking that it's going to be any one of these short films. Um, specifically, A Friend of Dorothy, I think, is very sweet. Yeah. You know, um, it's again not breaking, you know, new ground per se. Right. Um, but it does have a very nice performance uh from both leads. Yeah. Um, and there are you know gay themes attached to the film that I think are really. Which I like. Which I like that it sets it apart a little bit.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, it sets it apart. I also think that one of the things that we've mentioned sets it apart is sort of the tone.
SPEAKER_01:It does have a lighter, airier, more comedic tone, which we may be missing on this list. Um couple of things that I don't like, and again, it just comes down to voters when they're watching these things. Do these overlaps bother them? Do they choose a favorite, or can some of these films somehow divide the vote and sort of survive into the final five? And so we're talking about the idea that Jennifer Lewis and sort of a commanding lead is gonna be attractive to some voters. Is that gonna come to a head when you see again Miriam Margali's another great character actor from the UK? She has a very meaty part here, a very memorable part, a part like catered to her, and that it's difficult to imagine anyone else in. Is that gonna play a factor? Is there room for both? The same way that I'll say again, both of these shorts are UK. Like, is there room for rock, paper, scissors, which won the BAFTA, and our friend of Dorothy? That's another question that I have. Right. You know, and I think that's that we'll we'll see what happens if instead they're gonna opt for, you know, shorts that do shorts that are very distinct from one another. Right. I think you meant rock, paper, scissors, and extremist. No, I I I'm no, because rock, paper, those are that's yet another sort of connection, but rock, paper, scissors is from the UK. That's I think there's UK support in the film. That's why it qualified in BAFTA and Friend of Dorothy is the same thing. Right, right. Right. And so if you're a British Oscar voter who's committed to watching all 15, you can only put one at the number one spot.
SPEAKER_02:Right, exactly. I I think that's a really good point. Um, and uh Jane Hossen's period drama, I think in a way it is charming. I know that you were a big fan of it, right? You know, it's well done, but I think that it's almost a little bit too light. You know, um, it's it's in the same I I have the same sort of observations as what you just said about a friend of Dorothy. It is uh an interesting satire, it's a it's a new perspective, and I like that about it. But at the same time, I'm not sure it ever really transcends any, I'm not tr transcends being a riff on Jane Austen. Right. Using this uh uh this particular theme as an anchor. Right. Um will they be?
SPEAKER_01:I think certain mo voters might be impressed by it. I mean, I think you've mentioned its greatest occasion. And it's also its greatest virtue, right? It's going to be extremely memorable again as a riff on Jane Austen, which hasn't really existed, I think, to this Academy and it may not exist in the future. Maybe this gets adapted into a feature. But I do think they're going to be like, oh, you know, here's a piece of property that is supposed to get an eye for a bunch of Academy Awards, usually does on the feature length side. And the short has done something really innovative about it. But again, if it's very memorable for its satiric sort of tone, it's kind of again like a friend, my friend, uh a friend of Dorothy, which is very unique for its sort of queer subject matter. Um, those will go head to head in terms of comedy. Like, is there room for both of them? They're both funny shorts, comedic shorts. I'm not sure that there is. And I also think that there is, um, I do believe some of the filmmakers behind Jane Austen are not based um in the U.S. Um, what I always thought about Jane Austen's period drama is that not only is it very unique, but I also feel like it's one of the shorts here that is most ready to be expanded, that a a studio here in the US will find some way to take these talented filmmakers and harness that energy to make something feature-length. And I think that may be, you know, a weapon for this film to get into the final five.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, another film that we that that at least I really contemplated was Dad's Not Home, um, the polish short. Unfortunately, we haven't seen it, but it feels like the kind of thing that you could see playing on one of those Oscar show uh Oscar short showcases. Absolutely. You know, you know, a father. There have been um uh many shorts that are dealing with dementia that have made it to the final five.
SPEAKER_01:You're absolutely right, but not only that, also dealing with the idea of like children's perspective. And that's something that we don't have too much of, yeah, right. Because I think very much we haven't seen it, but the children are the point of view of this film, and throughout the other films, we we're not seeing that right, a hundred percent.
SPEAKER_02:And so I have my eye on this as being a very big dark horse that not enough people are paying attention to. We'll see if that you know turns into anything on Oscar when they announce the nominations. Um, but unfortunately, I haven't seen it. So I have to just go with at the end of the day, I thought the best thing that we could do is cover our bases and put extremist as our number fifth, a number five prediction. Um, what I really like about extremist, besides, you know, that it it's based on a real life account, I think that helps. Right. Um and of course, there's uh there's a context to this that I think is timely as well. Um, but what I really like about it is the producers that are attached to it. Yeah, you know, it has a lot of well-known executive producers that are attached to it. I know there's a woman that was attached to uh Navalny, I believe. Yes. Um Odessa Ray, I believe. Uh yeah, Odessa Ray. Uh Ben Stiller is an executive producer. Rabin Barani, the great filmmaker, um, is a producer. Um, and John Lescher, who is an Academy Award uh winner winner for Birdman. For Birdman as a producer, is a produce as an executive producer on this. Right. Um, I don't know. That just seems very tempting to me.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, on top of that, I think we sort of saw that this particular short is bolstered by like a really good um talent, like behind the camera. Like I know that the cinematographer on here is actually the cinematographer that has worked for a long time with the uh Russian filmmaker uh Andrey Zygnistev. Yeah, who we're big fans of. Who we're big fans of, whose movie Loveless got nominated, whose movie Leviathan was nominated. And so when you start to incorporate all those things, you have to sort of think like this movie, beyond being timely, beyond being international, beyond being um based on a true story, is it also just too stacked in terms of um support from industry figures that are well known and well connected and can know how to get the word out to miss out? I do, I do want to mention something really quickly, which is now that a voter has to see all 15 and it's no longer, oh, my friend is, you know, a producer on this, so I'm definitely gonna just vote for that number one and I'll vote for whatever number two or three. I do think you'll often see on the list films that do have weightier names get sidelined. I mean, we talk about that short film with Colin Farrell's support thing from a few years ago that did not make the list. I think last year.
SPEAKER_02:It was last year I saw it. I wasn't a big fan, but you're right, it didn't make the list.
SPEAKER_01:Because now they are being judged, you know, one against the other, because you have to see all 15. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, but I also want to say that, you know, we can't discredit that there probably are a great deal of voters who, you know, know someone who knows someone or are friends with or you know are close with or have worked with some of these, some of this behind the scenes talent. And that's one reason to put them high on your ballot. Certainly. You know, so I think that's what we're latching on to here, even though I'll be honest, I think that we inherently have one wrong because I have a hard time seeing extremist and rock, paper, scissors both get in.
SPEAKER_01:And because someone goes perfect, you're right.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, let's let's hope. But uh yeah, certainly I'm not sure I see a list because they're in a way thematically, at least the undercurrent is too similar.
SPEAKER_00:They mirror each other a little bit, a little bit too much, as you as you said.
SPEAKER_02:So I do think we might be wrong. Will it be one or the other? At least one, but my hope is that we're only wrong with one and not more than one. Right. So um I will just say that uh close calls were uh besides the ones that we've mentioned, uh two people exchanging saliva again has a really stacked um uh behind the scenes right talent.
SPEAKER_01:And also actors, um uh featuring like a lead performance from the star of Holy Spider. Vicky Kriegs is a narrator. It's in black and white. I think Barry Jenkins hosted a screening for this film at some point. Um but at the same time, you and I had the discussion.
SPEAKER_02:Isabel Huper attached to someone.
SPEAKER_01:I think she is, um, or she hosted a screening or something, but you and I had the discussion like, is there room on this list for two people exchanging saliva and the singers? Again, these are shorts that are like they rep, they kind of present a very um distinct point of view from the filmmakers, which makes it which make them very rewarding shorts, right? But they're also a little bit abstract, which makes it less fodder for an Academy Award nomination.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And you know, if you see, if you look for the premise of this short, you know, uh where it's a society where kissing is prohibited and as a punishment you get slapped in the face, you know, and they go to interesting places with that premise. And visually it's really beautifully shot in black and white. Um, but I just feel like I haven't known this branch or or or these voters that vote for these short categories. I haven't known them to be too experimental, yeah, and too, you know, stretching themselves outside their comfort zone. I I don't feel confident thinking that they're going to be able to tap into this wavelength or at least enough of them tap into it.
SPEAKER_00:I I agree with that.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, I do like that it played Telluride. I think it did at least. It did. Um, and and that's a good place to play. Um, so that was one that that that was a close call. And uh a lot of people are predicting the boy with white skin, but similarly, as with uh two people exchange saliva, it's an artsy short, you know, it's it's not necessarily very plot-driven, you know, it's more about creating an atmosphere and it's more nuanced and and and and there aren't a lot of words, you know.
SPEAKER_01:There's yeah, there's like a mystery to it, an ambiguity to it that I I think is actually very rewarding, but I just don't know if that's what a typical voter would go for.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, visually, it's beautiful. I think so. And and and what they were able to achieve, you know, in these dark spaces, I thought was very recommend very commendable.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And at the same time, I do think the short, for example, we'll see well, we've often se shorts that have been nominated that are on the more abstract end. They do tend to have children's point of views, and this film has that's true. And that's gonna be that's gonna be an advantage for this film. Right. Um, but I do wonder, I do wonder if it's gonna be a little, as you said, too abstract for most voters.
SPEAKER_02:And uh another short that I love that I think is about rounding out the top five for a lot of pundits is Amarella, which went to Cannes. Um, and uh again, it's just a a young uh a young woman um with an Asian background who's living in Brazil with her family, and it's happening during the World Cup final, I think in the 90s. Um, and you know, as she's trying to celebrate because she's very passionate about the sport as well, you know, the community around her kind of secludes her a little bit because she's not because she's not originally from Brazil. Um and I have to say, I thought it was a very well done short. Um, but it's also very nuanced. It takes, it takes its time, the pacing, it can be slow. Um, but visually it was very precise. And I thought the per the lead performance from the young girl, I believe her name is Melissa Uijara, um, it was really poignant and really touching. And so there is a part of me that's wondering if voters see the short and are as uh compelled and moved by her performance as I was. And and and how well done the short is as well. Even again, it's even though it's more subtle and more nuanced, if that could be enough to uh grant it a spot in the five. I think it's it would be nice because I think it's a very well done short. Um, but I I wonder if some of these other shorts have uh, you know, these social political messaging that might be a little bit more blatant or might be a little bit more accessible for some uh voters.
SPEAKER_01:I also think it'll be interesting to see because I believe that short is coming from Brazil, right? And um Brazil is gonna play a factor in so many other races that if you're a voter, do you take this opportunity to say, I'm gonna reward a film that's not from Brazil and maybe from another country that's not gonna get a spotlight? Or do you double down and say it's just gonna be a great, great day for Brazil and you're gonna nominate Brazil, you know, across multiple categories, including this one. It could happen. I'm I'm curious to see if that's the case.
SPEAKER_02:All right, so our final predictions for a live action short are the Singers Beyond Silence, Rock, Paper, Scissors, Extremist, and Adoo.
SPEAKER_01:So let's jump now to um best animated short, um, which is a category that I really love. And again, remember, um, the Academy at large could vote for this, but they have to see all 15. Um, animated short, I think, is especially enticing to voters because it's the most forgiving in terms of the time commitment, because a lot of these shorts are usually under 30 minutes and most of them under 15.
SPEAKER_02:That's a good point.
SPEAKER_01:Um, so you know, expect them to play a large factor. The expect populism to possibly play a factor here, and also maybe more voters that are going to participate. Yeah, certainly. Um, and then like all the short film categories, you what you'll often see is this becomes a hub for a lot of international um spotlighting, like um in most short categories, like what we just predicted for live action, you'll see many different countries represented. Um, so expect to see, don't expect to see a lineup with mostly um English language or English speaking uh shorts, um, or even all shorts from the US. Um, so just quickly going through um the lineup, um, you have, for example, and you'll see some overlap here, but there's a short film, Black and White, called I Died in Urpin, and it's from the Czech Republic, but it is sort of a point of view of the Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian, what's going on with Russia, um, and that's gonna be the big sort of calling card for that film. Um, we correctly called it as one of the finalists here, so we're glad to see it here. Um, cardboard is a US production and very sort of family friendly. Um, and um it's you know centers on this family of uh pigs who uh relocated to a new location and uh very much about fatherhood, inspired by the filmmaker's own upbringing. Um that said, I will say that I think that the big calling card, in my opinion, for this short is that I believe it is directed by um a filmmaker who uh helmed Ron's Gone Wrong, which was um an animated short film from 2020 and was in contention for animated animated film. Excuse me, not an animated short film, an animated feature film was in contention for animated uh feature among the 30-year plus films that qualified in 2022, did not get nominated. Um, there was, I think, another um robot film uh that year that did. Um that so I do think sometimes what you'll see here is um individuals who have been looked overlooked in the past, overlooked in the past in the US industry or in animation in general. Maybe they'll break in here. And so I think that's maybe um the big advantage that this film has. Um, you have a film like uh Hur Huri Khan that uh did really well at Sundance again, another film from Czech Republic, very edgy, uh black and white.
SPEAKER_02:We saw that. We saw I saw that short, yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, we saw it at Sundance. Um it has a a lot of fans, and I won an audience award at a major festival. Um, Iru is from Ireland, um, and Ireland scored a couple of nominations here. Um, but that's from Cartoon Saloon, and that'll be the big advantage for that short film as Cartoon Saloon. Um, listeners may um be familiar with that animation studio because they're out of Ireland and they are responsible for the films of Tom Moore and Nora Tuomi, um films like The Breadwinner, Song of the Sea, Wolf Walkers. So um, they are not the filmmakers behind this short, but they are the the company, the animation company, and the producers behind it. And that's the big advantage behind the colour. That's a favorite amongst pundits right now, yeah. Certainly, and I believe, if I'm correct, that it was attached to Little Amelie, um, which is a contender for animated uh film, and which we're predicting, and that may very well be um an advantage. Um, but like I said, it doesn't really matter if you went to go see Little Amelie in theaters and you saw Yuru because to watch all these shorts, you have to watch them, I think, all sort of together, or you have to have the credit of having seen them all. Um, another uh short from Ireland that was very memorable um was Retirement Plan. Um of our favorite shorts. Um very totally different than some of these other ones. I think it's kind of weird in live action. What you'll often see is um these short films with children's perspectives sort of stand out. Um but sometimes what you see in an animated short is these shorts with deceptively um uh adult, mature perspectives, and sometimes even ones that appeal to adults triumph a little bit more. And that's kind of the dichotomy that happens, which is an animated film, it tends to surround films that have been crafted and catered and marketed to families and children. In an animated short, you'll have, for example, a winner like The Windshield Wiper, right? Very ambiguous, very abstract, um, not necessarily for children, or you have a short film like Bestia, which is has a uh a stop motion short um that is dealing with deep uh issues of political trauma.
SPEAKER_02:Um last year two of our favorites were Wonder to Wonder and uh Beautiful Man, which I loved.
SPEAKER_01:And yeah, two really great stop motion stop motion shorts, but not necessarily for children. Yeah, um, and so I think that's one of the most exciting parts about this category. Um, but so retirement plan, you know, centers around this older uh man who's going to retire. Um and um I do think that the tone and the subject matter is going to be memorable and resonate with some voters. Um that's the second Ireland uh Irish short on this list. Um France is on here a couple of times, um, most notably for a short called Papillon or Butterfly, and it really stands out for a couple of reasons stylistically. Um, they're sort of animating a painting, and so you can see the brush strokes and the artist is use is sort of animating the painting and recording it as they make changes, and that certainly stands out from the rest of the pack, but more importantly, I think it is the only one that has a sort of um uh real life sort of figure behind it, a historical account behind it. Um, and you often don't see that in animation. And again, I I think voters are gonna remember that it makes it stand out. And again, I think voters oftentimes are trying to use this category to complement what they're not doing in the animated feature category in terms of spotlighting international films, spotlighting films that have a more mature perspective. Um, and and here in this particular case, an animated short film that's based on a historical figure. And in this case, I believe it's um the uh Olympic uh swimmer, um, the Jewish swimmer, Alfred uh Nakashi. I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly, and sort of his life story. Um, he would go on to survive the Holocaust.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um and he was um in the Olympic Games Um that were hosted by Germany while it was uh under the uh Nazi regime, and so I it's gonna resonate also dramatically. Yeah, um, and um France also here for um uh a short film called Playing God, which is a co-production, I think, between France and Italy. And that stands out because it's one of the shorts that has maybe this a little a little bit of a genre horror um tone to it, very memorable, but it's one of the few sort of stop motion shorts um in this category. Um, and I'll extend that further and say that this year we don't have much stop motion of the Academy Awards at all. And so again, this could be an area where you can spotlight that exactly specifically, exactly, because again, um animated film, animated feature is another category that has been opened up to the Academy in mass. And so when a voter knows that they didn't nominate a stop motion film in feature length film, and they finally see one in short, they may take the opportunity to spotlight that, you know, because you want to sort of spread the the wealth between different types of animation. I think that's usually what they would like to do, although it has not always happened. Um, I wouldn't dismiss that being a factor as to why this could happen. Um, finally, France is there for the shyness of trees, and the big calling card here, in my opinion, is that it was shortlisted for the Student Academy Award. It didn't win gold. Um, I think it won bronze. Um, but it was, I think, the only Student Academy Award short to um get this um this top 15 position.
SPEAKER_02:Um I mean, it's it's such a beautiful short, it's an incredible short film.
SPEAKER_01:An incredible short film. Um and again, it has told very visually, but um the perspective of the story, the idea of aging, the idea of um uh the relationship between children and parents, and the idea and mother nature of nature and mother nature, and just you know, um coming to a point coming to a point of of death, for example, I think is something that could resonate um to voters. Um Spain is in here for the Quintus Ghost, which is fascinating because it's sort of um informed by the paintings of Goya, um, which can be very disturbing. And um nonetheless, the short is very memorable. Um, it's a 3D animated short. Um and um in Spanish, it features uh Maribel Verdue, the wonderful um um actress in uh as the narrator. Um but I think the big calling card here for that short is that again that it's inspired by the work of Goya, so that's always sort of a memorable thing to for for a voter to see. Attention calling. Very attention calling. Um, the girl who cried pearls is from the fantastic um national film board out of Canada. Um, it won a short film award, I believe, in Toronto, which is a great sign. These these filmmakers have been nominated before for another animated short, which is always great. Um, and it's uh it's one of the other stop motion films on here. Um, and they do a lot of really unique things, incorporating sort of um found. Items and the the short has this sort of um tactility and and rustic uh look to it that's very appealing. Um and you also have a short uh called Autocar, which is I think co-production between Belgium and Poland. Um but it's it's very much about the this young girl's perspective as she's put on a bus taking her um to her mother. Um but it you know deals with ideas of of migration um and sort of this maybe uh magical point of view of of a child and and you know maybe coming to terms with the idea of leaving some parts of her own identity um in going to see her mother, including her grandparents, um you know, where the with the where she was raised at that moment, um her relationship with her father. Um and so um that's memorable uh for that reason. Again, just the complicated nature of a child's performance of a child's point of view, which speaks to an adult's point of view. Um The Three Sisters is absolutely fascinating. Um it's coming from Russia, and um what's most fascinating about it to me is that it recently came out that The Three Sisters was being um presented as the work from a filmmaker called um Timur Kognov. Um and it ends up being shortlisted for the Academy Award despite not playing a lot of festivals, but it ends up being revealed that it's actually the work of the Russian filmmaker Konstantin Bronzit, um, who is a has been nominated a couple of times, including for that wonderful short that we loved, We Can't Live Without Cosmos. Oh, yeah, um, which was an amazing short. Um but they sort of said that they took their name out of this short to sort of experience what it's like to go through the entire journey of submitting a short to festivals and getting it spotlighted and highlighted and getting a spot into this Final 15 to, you know, to take away the pretension, supposedly, of having the author's name, you know, sort of judge the work, not the author. And he said he had a terrible time that he just realized how fortunate it is to have a name or how unfortunate it is to not have a name, to be an early filmmaker, um, how competitive, you know, these um positions are at top-tier festivals, and how oftentimes we're not judging the work, we're judging the name. Um, so it's really interesting to see the film here. Um, why? Because did the experiment sort of work and we judged the work and not the name? Maybe did some people also possibly know that this filmmaker was behind it and that allowed um him to have a qualifying um presence at one of these festivals to get into the top 15. Um, like I said, this was recently revealed, and I think it's absolutely fascinating. Yeah, that's crazy. Um so I think there are also a couple of films um that I think are sister projects, and we've talked about this issue in live action, but there's what I like to call the bear movies, and that's Snow Bear, um, which is uh sort of a traditional hand-animated bear on top of, you know, um some 3D elements um dealing with the polar bear, and has this sort of I think subtext to to climate change, um, and uh I think mostly, if not exclusively, a wordless short. I've had the opportunity to see it, but then there's the other bear short.
SPEAKER_02:I just want to say that isn't this the short where the filmmaker has made a previous bear film.
SPEAKER_01:Right, right. And that's part of the story here. The angle here for Snow Bear is that the filmmaker, I believe Aaron Blaze, um, who's very popular online, is has a long history of having worked with Disney as an animator on several of their projects from the 90s, very well known for that. But he eventually got a nomination in 2003 for best animated feature for Brother Bear, um, which could be a factor here in his favor or possibly against him. Um, we'll find out. Um, the other film But he hasn't been back since then. He has not been back since then. Um, and I don't think he works with Disney any longer. Um, but the other Bear film is Forever Green. Um, and interestingly enough, those that's also coming from a pair of filmmakers who've had some experience working with Disney as well. Not, I think, strictly in the same position, and certainly not the same projects as Aaron Blaze, but it's interesting that both Bear films have a history of these filmmakers who spent some time on the Disney animation side and whether or not that could factor into um getting them nominated or not. It's kind of fascinating too, because I I think this short took like five years to make, and a lot of people volunteered their time and their resources um throughout the country, if not, you know, internationally, to get it done and fulfilling the different uh jobs and roles that needed to be um filled in order to see it to its completion. Um it's also a short that like um is is animated um on computer, but I think the filmmakers went through great lengths to give this film this aesthetic of sort of a wood carving to the point where they um carved out of wood different elements that would be used in the film to then you know um study that and use that as visual inspiration and use that as sort of um uh the the structure, the visual structure for how they would make the short. And so it's not it's sort of like um that short film that got nominated last year from Japan, um Magic Candies. Oh, Magic Candies, yeah. Which you would think is, you know, um using puppets and stop motion, but it's not, it's all animated on computer. Um, but it does imitate a style that some that some uh voters are going to think is actually that and it's not. Right. Um and then there's the night boots, night boots, um, which actually won a pretty big award at Annecy, is uh really fascinating, I think, because it's resurrecting this form of animation um using uh what what they call a pin screen. And so what happens is you have all these pins across the screen. Um, and a lot of people will be familiar with like the little trick at magic shops when you like stick your hand in these pins and or your face and it like outlines your face. And and so what they do, the animators here is they use the pin screen to um push in the pins through the screen and create shapes and figures and drawings um using how deep they push a pin to sort of give you those tonalities between being really dark and really light. That's really cool. Um so it's not extremely monochromatic, but you have all these different tones, and then little by little they take one shot, they move a few pins, they take another shot, they move a few pins, and it was pioneered, I believe, by these Canadian filmmakers, if not French filmmakers. I apologize. But um, the actual, I think, print screen had been like reserved for years, if not decades, and they were able to lend the filmmakers the film screen, um, sorry, the pin screen to make this new work. And I and I don't doubt that that historical significance played a big part as to why it won an award, for example, to Annecy for short film. Um, I don't know if voters are gonna be well-versed enough to appreciate that, but when you do um see it, when you do see how that type of animation is done and when you know the history of it, it's incredibly, incredibly impressive. Yeah, um, and so I think right now the favorites are um, you know, looking at a place like Gold Derby, Snow Bear, because you got Academy Award nominee, Aaron Aaron Blaze on that. Um Yuru, right, which is coming from Cartoon Saloon, which does not have an animated feature this year in the film category. Um, Butterfly or Arpapion, um, has that historical context to it. Uh Forever Green, the other bear movie, and those other um animators who have a history of working with uh Disney. And lastly, Autocar, um, which is from Poland, and again has a child's perspective.
SPEAKER_02:Um just to begin with, it feels like there's too many bears.
SPEAKER_01:There's I do wonder how many bears is the limit. I do, I have wondered about that. Um, and I do I think we're at the advan we have the advantage that we've seen a good number of these. Um and for example, as much as we like Urachan and it would be wonderful to see, I do wonder if the tone of that movie is gonna be a little bit off-putting for some voters. Um, you look at something like Snowbear, it was actually nominated at the Annie Awards for best short film, which is not a bad place to be. Right, right. Um, that said Aaron Blaze is well, very, very well known. Um, it was accompanied in that category by cardboard, right? Which is from the director of Ron's Gone Wrong, and The Girl Who Cried Pearls, which is from the National Film Board, who who tend to do well here. Um, so you would think that one of those three should show up. Um, obviously, people think that the favorite there is Snowbear. Um, for Evergreen did pretty well because it got nominations at the Annie Awards for character animation and production design, and um Iru got a nomination for music. Snowbear got a mention for storyboarding on top of Best Short Film, and then the Quintus Ghost got a nomination for directing. Um I think that we feel really secure that puppy on Butterfly is gonna get in. Yeah, um I think the context helps, uh uh the subject matter helps. Um, but I I think it was nominated for uh Cesar, even though it lost, that should help it get in. Yeah, um, I think the other one that we sort of agree should get in is between the two bear movies, we're sort of siding forever green because we do think that most voters are going to appreciate the aesthetics of that film, possibly a little bit more. I think everyone is is under the impression that Snowbear will make it because of Aaron Blaze. But I think from what we saw, most of the time when you're a previous Academy Award nominee in a bigger category, uh more maybe a uh a more top-tier category, like animated feature. Um there was just nominating you in this uh short category. It it doesn't happen often, and I think some people are mistakenly under the impression um of referencing someone like I believe uh Glenn Keene when he made the short deer basketball, which won, remember with Kobe Bryant. Um and he has a long history of working with uh Disney as well, but he had never had a nomination before then. That mattered, and a few years later he would go on to be nominated finally for best film for Over the Moon. But I don't know if Aaron Blaze can go from being nominated for best feature in 2003 to 20 years later being nominated for short film, right? I don't know if it helps that they're both Bear movies, Brother Bear and Snow Bear. I think that doesn't help, yeah. Um, that said, I do think like it's you know allusions to climate change um and sort of the climate crisis can be advantageous, is gonna be very advantageous. Um, but it's not unlike again Forever Green, which has that in the subtext too. So again, I do wonder like, is there enough room for both Bear movies? Doesn't sound like it. Um and between the two, I think Forever Green is the one that stands out a little bit more. Um no one is really talking about it, but I think one of the secret movies to watch here um is the Quintus Ghost. And I think there's it comes from Spain, um, which has been nominated before.
SPEAKER_02:There's a historical context to it.
SPEAKER_01:There's a historical context to it because you know Goya is a figure in it. Um the filmmakers have had some experience working with productions that have been popular in the US, including, for example, they were part of the production team of a film like Um The Teenage Mutant uh Ninja Turtles, um, Mudid Mayhem from a few years ago, and The Mitchell's versus the Machines, which was nominated for Best Feature. And so it has that aesthetic, right, applied to the the aesthetic of of Goya. Right. Um, I also think that it has this subject matter about um the Inquisition that some filmmakers may find really interesting. It's a really mature short. I it's like almost like it's like horror adjacent. Yeah, but it's also Spanish and has the international yes, and it's gonna have that. I mean, I don't think it's been nominated for a Goya itself yet. I don't know if it's because it the Goyas haven't come out yet. Um, that may be the case. Um, but I do know of filmmakers who are big fans of it. Um, it's not a popular choice right now, but I was not shocked, for example, when it got that Annie nomination for best directing. And so I think it'll it'll uh factor in here. And it sort of reminds me a little bit of like, remember Loving Vincent for Best Feature Film? Yeah. Like, don't you think that if they have the opportunity to reward a film, whether feature or short, that is somewhat, you know, that is inspired visually by a such a renowned artist that they would possibly probably flock to it. I would think so, yeah. Yeah, and so if you add that, the the participation of uh Maribel Verdue, I think that this is a short that's gonna appeal to a lot of voters. And again, it's not necessarily a children's short. Right. Um, I think after that, it's tough because you get to a point where you you have these these shorts that maybe do the same thing, and so um we have this stop motion short, which is pretty incredible because of the scale of the work that they're doing. It's called Playing God. Is it smart to leave off a stop motion short here? I mean, they're not too many on the list. They're not being recognized elsewhere, but they're not going that these are the these are the two stop motion films between the 15 and animated short and the 30 plus in feature, and so it makes me feel that they're going to be memorable. Um, a lot of people I think are preferring Girl Who Cried Pearls, and it does have that nomination. I don't think that that short film has done as well as that team's previous short film, which scored a nomination here. But there's something about playing God and the idea of like artistry because it's about um creation this, yeah, this filmmaker who's molding this um puppet um that then become that then becomes sentient and and becomes alive and becomes aware that they are being molded and sees all the other moldings around them, right, that have been abandoned or have been um uh sort of put aside by the creator. And it becomes like this wider sort of discussion about I think creation and also artistry, and it that that kind of thing has appealed to voters before. Um, and I think not only is it based on you know, based off stop motion and and the puppet, but like the way that they're using the clay on on the puppet. Um, I think we've seldom seen um in a long time. We're talking about having to go back several years to see a film done with claymation, um, and not just puppets. So like not like Wallace and Gromet, but here like they're really animating just the strokes of of um how they're molding that clay little by little. Um and yeah, I I think my only question is is it too dark when you already have the Quinta's ghost there? And it's again another very dark tone of a film. Um, that's my only hesitation with the piece because I do think that the piece, the scale of work in it is going to be impressive. I do think that this category, for example, does you know award shorts that have had success at notable festivals, and it did premiere in Venice, which I think is pretty big, the same way that Papillon, I believe, premiered in Berlin and did really well. And so that's going for it. Um so yeah, I think right now we're signing for Playing God, and that's coming out of Italy and France co-production, and but the last short that we think may have the edge here is actually the side the shyness of trees.
SPEAKER_02:And we had a hard time deciding between a few shorts for this last spot.
SPEAKER_01:Right. I think we're we're we're leaning towards the shyness of trees um because of its thematic content, because it's very emotional, um, because it's beautifully animated. But I think it there's like this um, I don't know, there's uh an immediacy to it. Um it's it's very um automatic. Like there's so much pathos to it. Yeah, that's there's something very cathartic about it. Exactly. Um, that I think voters are gonna like it. Um now we did sort of see that like there's like well, I think five or six directors on this because it is a student project and it was on our first student academy award, which they have been nominated before in the past, not exclusively every year, but they have been on in the past. But there are films that have maybe not often, but there are films that have several directors that still manage to get a nomination. And we're thinking that the the content of the material and the way in which it's presented very visually. I think it's one of the most um visual shorts on here in the sense that they're using visuals in a very strong um storytelling way, right? It's not like um some of the other shorts on here, which certainly are visual, but there's so much uh dimensional metaphor to this film that that voters I think are gonna recognize. Um and I think we're siding with those five, which means that one of the shorts that we really love that we're leaving off the list right now is actually retirement plan. Right. Um which again, it's it's a close call, whether to include it or not. Um tonally, it's very um uh funny and rewarding and poignant and and poetic. But we do wonder, for example, if there's enough latitude for voters to recognize both the shyness of trees and retirement plan. I know retirement plan, for example, was a big winner at South by Southwest with an audience award and a jury prize. Um it's playing off the New Yorker, which I actually don't think has had well, they have had some success here. Yes, they have in the past. Um and so the New Yorker is doing really well because it has shorts across all three documentary live action. They should do pretty well, yeah. So will this be another um big win for the New Yorker? Um, it could happen. I feel bad leaving it off the list, especially considering again that Ireland had the two films. Um, but I I don't think that I think that we're of the mind that there may not be room for this and the shyness of trees.
SPEAKER_02:It would be nice if they both were in the world.
SPEAKER_01:It would it would be great. Um now, and it and it could still totally happen. Um, we're also leaving off, for example, I dad in Urpin, um, only because we think that the themes can be um spotlighted in other shorts and in other categories of of the year. Um I think one of our biggest gambles here is that we're leaving off the favorite snow bear um and putting in, you know, the the most agreed dark horse, uh the quintess ghost, which has very little support right now.
SPEAKER_02:Which will uh, you know, I'll also say, you know, when you're deciding these short categories, it's not seldom that the favorites are left out. Oh, yeah. You know, this that's just how unpredictable these categories can be. So it's not, you know, it's not the end of the world if you know the favorite doesn't get in.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um, I do think we're also hedging our bets that Papillon um butterfly is gonna get in. Is there a chance that it doesn't get in? Because creatively it may be the one that's you know visually most um it takes a backseat to the actual narrative, the actual story, the actual history. Possible. It's possible. Um we'll see what happens. I think we're gonna go with those five for now, but it's a really close call leaving off retirement plan. You know, it's it's tough to leave it off this list to when it's such a, I think. Crowd pleasing short. Yes. 100%. And so the five are? So the five are going for are um Papillon or Butterfly, um, Forever Green, The Quinta's Ghost, Playing God, and The Shyness of Trees.
SPEAKER_02:Okay, next we're going to move on to documentary short. Um, and usually of the three short categories, this is our favorite short category. They usually have the best nominees. Um, All the Empty Rooms is a big favorite from Netflix. It's a very well produced, it's incredibly, incredibly moving. Um, and uh, it's a very well-known journalist uh and a and a project he has of documenting the rooms of all the victims that have perished from school shootings. The children, all the children. Um, it's incredibly moving, it's incredibly beautiful. Um on Netflix right now. On Netflix, you can't help but watch it and and and and shed some tears. Um, it's just very well done. Um, so that's a favorite and and and deserves to be on the list. Probably the winner. Yeah, most likely the winner. Once you know the entire academy can choose the winner. So once all of them get to see it, it's probably a favor. Um, all the walls came down. You saw we've seen a few films from the filmmaker on deteminer. Um, I think you met her this year. And um, you know, uh it's actually a very timely piece as well, chronicling, you know, the aftermath of the of the LA fires.
SPEAKER_01:It'll be like a about a year anniversary right now. Um, LA Wildfires um filmmaker was a victim. Her neighbors and her community were a victim, and sort of um chronicling their efforts to, you know, pick up the pieces of their lives and of their community following those fires. Um and I believe that is available or will be available from the Los Angeles Times. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um and then there's Armed Only with a Camera, the life and death of Brent Renaud. Um, and uh this is a short, uh, this is a documentary short that we've seen. Um it's incredibly moving as well, chronicling the life of Brent Renaud, who was a journalist, the first uh American journalist to die um uh uh in the Ukraine war. Um, and uh it kind of traverses his life um in a very poignant, very uh intimate manner. Um uh very you know, unafraid, very uh immediate. It's uh it's an incredibly moving uh short and should be a favorite to get nominated here as well. Um Bad Hostage, I have also seen from HBO, I was gonna say. Um uh armed with only a count. Yes, from HBO. Um Bad Hostage. Um it's kind of interesting. Uh I wasn't crazy about the short, but you know, it the uh the filmmaker, her family was involved with a uh hostage situation, I think in the 70s or 80s, I think in the 70s. And um, she's sort of taking the point of view of what happened to her family and two other instances and sort of dissecting them a bit and and dissecting uh the uh Stockholm syndrome. So it's interesting, it's an interesting concept. Um I thought it was a little bit messy personally, but um I can understand why it's on this list. Um, Cashing Out, I think is a documentary short that you've seen.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, pretty fascinating um documentary short from uh the New Yorker again, um, who got a lot of films in here this year and has been nominated here before. Um, but a really fascinating story um documenting um what happened, you know, while the AIDS crisis was taking off in America, um several uh members of the gay community um who got sick um were able to trade in their life insurance um to get immediate money for uh medical relief, you know, um uh relief from medical expenses to take care of themselves to get better. Um, and some of them who had um more tragic um circumstances and and who um whose survival was more doubtful traded in those um life insurance policies, some of which were provided by employers who no longer wanted to employ them. They traded them in to spend their time and their lives the way they wanted to with their partners. And this is a fascinating short, a great subject, um, and really poignant. And again, uh one of the few shorts I think on here that has uh a queer sort of uh subject matter.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um Chasing Time is an interesting uh film. Yeah, uh uh that's uh based on uh sort of the life work of James Balog, yeah, who uh was documenting uh this um uh uh environmental change of the icebergs, right, capturing them in real time as they were melting.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, through his project, The Extreme Ice Survey. And what's fascinating about this um short, which is one of um a few that are coming out of PBS and POV, I believe, point of view, um, is that uh he's this this uh this uh scientist is also the subject matter of a um larger feature-length documentary called Chasing Ice in 2012, um, which was a big hit at Sundance that year, um, and would I believe be shortlisted for consideration for documentary that year and actually got a nomination for best original song um from Jay Ralph, and I think Scott Johansson's on that track. Um, and so James um James Ballog is is sort of uh ending the experiment, and the short is about him bringing down the cameras, but also sort of um you know, sharing the inception of the project, what happened, um the project originates as you said, as an attempt to provide visual evidence for climate change. Um, taking a uh a time-lapse photo of these areas where they have these massive glacial structures, and you take a photograph, I think one one uh minute of every hour that ends up like something like 200,000 plus photographs, and you you put them in a time-lapse, and it's just you can see the entire structure just melting away. Um, and and at a time when um there was more skepticism uh to climate change, he provided that visual evidence. And so the uh he he gets sick and um he's able to survive his illness. Um, but he understands that it's time for the experiment to sort of um enter the next phase, and so it's all about them taking down those cameras. Um I think this is a big dark horse because um not only the subject matter is very unique, but also just the idea that I think viewers are going to come into this and remember, oh, this is James Balag and the filmmakers that are partly responsible for chasing ice, which was a fantastic documentary almost a decade ago.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, another contender is The Devil is Busy, which is interestingly enough is co-directed by Gita Gambier, who is also in contention this year for her documentary feature, The Perfect Neighbor, which is a favorite. Um, and uh that's interesting, that's important to note, I think, because as we mentioned earlier in the show, you know, uh a lot of these voters, for example, in in documentarians get to vote for both documentary short and documentary feature. That is so important to express the idea.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, like unlike the other shorts, this category is strictly reserved for um lifetime and active members of the documentary branch and no other members.
SPEAKER_02:And so when they're deciding the nominees, do they decide, for example, that they want to nominate Gita, who's a co-director on this short twice? Or will they say, I'd rather nominate her for this short and not the feature, which would be surprising for many, but that could happen. Um, or vice versa. Since I'm nominating her for best documentary feature, maybe I can leave her out of the devil is busy. That being said, it's a very well done short. I it's incredibly moving, incredibly well done. Um uh it takes place in an abortion clinic in Atlanta, um, and it sort of takes the main perspective of the director of operations named Tracy, um, kind of just going through the day and and surviving the day and all the minutiae that you know takes place and in receiving um all these travelers from around the country who are here to uh have a procedure. Um and uh all these sort of uh obstacles that she faces, amongst them, you know, the uh protesters that are sort of surrounding uh the clinic and uh uh constantly, you know, yelling these very uh, you know, these uh religious statements and and and hypocrisy that's involved in that subtextually. Um and it's just really, really well done, really poignant, uh, really inspiring and and and really uh just really touching. And the main perspective of Tracy was uh a character in the short that really pulls you in with her strength and her warmth and her wisdom and her vulnerability. And I think that that's something that I think a lot of voters would respond to. Um also from HBO. As well from HBO. Um, then we have uh Children No More.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, it was a really another really moving uh documentary short, um, sort of uh sharing um the efforts of a group of protesters in Israel um who led a sort of uh a protest that they would call Was and Is No More, where they would go and have sort of a quiet vigil, and they demonstrated the photographs of the children who had recently passed away the day or a few days before from Gaza. And you know, it's a documentary that chronicles the effort of um the uh the person responsible for the movement, you know, just trying to investigate those names and trying to human it, uh humanize, uh humanize those children um and try to recontextualize them in people's minds and hearts as as human beings and not just body counts trying to put a face to all the tragedy at the same time. The film is really interesting and complex because you see um these protesters hold these quiet vigils um in the context of you know the wider unrest in Israel as the war in Gaza is going on and sort of running parallel to these protests that are asking for the hostages back, but are also very much trying to hold um Netanyahu accountable for all the actions and all the atrocities going on in Gaza. At the same time, the protesters at one point decide that we have to expand the quiet vigil, uh the protest to reach um individuals who are more stubbornly looking away from the silent victims of uh what's going on in Gaza. And you see a lot of um a lot of pushback against them in the culture, and it sort of illustrates this moment historically that that we're in, um, which is people having an you know, people uh uh struggling to come to terms with um what are um difficult issues, uh um really layered, historically, you know, layered issues, um, and and also deeply personal. Um and so that's that's a really complicated documentary um that I think a lot of voters are going to, especially international voters, are going to feel very compelled by.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. Uh another short that's included here is a heartbeat, which we have not seen, but I believe the filmmaker uh Jay Rosenblatt has been nominated before for his other short documentary, short what uh We Were Bullies, something like something like that, which I think has had like a polarizing reaction amongst uh Cinephiles and the online community. Um, he's uh back in the short list, and I've heard mixed things about this one, but you know, it kind of uh employs a similar approach where he's sort of you know uh documenting a moment in time between him and his wife going through a difficult moment uh in their relationship. Uh, we haven't seen that one. Um then there's another short that we haven't seen called On Healing Land, Bird's Perch, which is sort of telling the story behind uh one of the most iconic uh photos in history, Saigon execution uh during the Vietnam War. Um interestingly enough, there's another short that has to do with uh Vietnam, which we'll get into. Um again, we haven't seen that short, but it sounds from what I've heard that it's quite effective. Um and uh there's also a another short called uh classroom four.
SPEAKER_01:That's another short coming out of PBS uh POV. Um, and it has uh to do, you know, with the subject matter of incarceration, and it's a really moving short about this uh professor who annually takes uh a class of college students to experience um a classroom to have a classroom experience within the uh incarceration system, I believe, in Portland. And so there's a class of 15 college students and 15 um inmates that sort of share a space and together they're analyzing, investigating, and sharing their opinions on the idea and the realities of the prison system. Um and it's a really beautiful documentary, um, you know, just highlighting all these amazing stories that are occurring without you knowing throughout the world and even here in in the US. Um, and again, we there's these parallels, right? Because um in incarceration will be another theme that we revisit when we talk about documentary feature. Um, but this is another really rewarding documentary, uh very very uh humanizing documentary um on all these individuals. Right. Um so very memorable. Um and it could very much compel voters to to include it.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, another short um that I had the privilege of watching was The Last Days on Lake Trinity, which deals with a South Florida uh trailer park that's uh being uh closed. Um uh there's going through a closure by its owner, which just happens to be, you know, the evangelical leader of the of TBN, um, the TV network. Um so there's uh you know there's an inherent uh kind of hypocrisy involved in that. Um that the short doesn't go too into, but but but it's a subtext. And um it's a really, really, really well done short. It's incredibly poignant, incredibly moving. And I feel like we've seen shorts that revolve around, you know, the retirement community, um, elders, yeah, the elder community going through a moment of crises and trying to survive. You know, I think that's something that responds that that that voters respond to um in this particular category of documentary short. And in this case, it's just really well told, it's really well done, and I think it's a dark horse that not enough people are paying attention to.
SPEAKER_01:The New Yorker, I think, is also um they're the ones responsible for sharing it.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, another short film that I think you've seen is Rovina's Choice.
SPEAKER_01:Yes, uh speaking of the New Yorker, that's a short that um shares or or portrays um this uh this young woman who uh essentially loses her child um due to uh starvation um after the US uh pulls out of USAID. Um and so you sort of see the consequences of of that, you know, decision. Um and so she's sort of giving a testimony of this incredibly difficult position she's in of having to care for this extremely ill child who's you know at at the at the border of death, and she still has to care for all her other children, and there's just not enough food to go around for all of them. Um and so I think the short does an amazing job of um highlighting the real victims of this of of you know, quote unquote bureaucratic decisions like that, and and highlighting the the human casualties of of you know what some people even in the documentary compare to, you know, it's going to have an effect like a war in areas that are um underserved and um areas that are overlooked and neglected, um, areas that are always at risk of um star starvation and you know um also highlighting um the the quiet victories that have happened over time to reduce uh starvation in that area, which nobody really talks about, right? And and then something like this happens and you take for granted that we accomplish that um through you know our sustained efforts, and and so you see this huge step backward. Um, and I definitely think that's such a timely topic that again, voters are gonna, it's gonna resonate with voters. Right.
SPEAKER_02:And then um a very interesting short that we did not get the chance to watch is called Perfectly Estrangeness. Um sounds fascinating, and I think it's three donkeys that are abandoned by a or in a um astronomical observatory, and I think they're alone even in the universe. Um, and I think it's sort of like an experimental piece. I think it's more of possibly, you know, a tone poem or maybe possibly just experimental.
SPEAKER_01:Certainly uh nebulous coming out of Cannes Film Festival as well, and there's a lot of acclaim. I mean, sometimes in this category there's room, there's latitude enough to include a short that is very much just about the visuals and what they provoke in terms of you know how a voter experiences it. And this is very much that kind of short.
SPEAKER_02:I feel like that's something that you could see happen more in documentary short more than uh live action short. A hundred percent. So that's something to keep in mind.
SPEAKER_01:Um and sometimes I'll say that is sometimes you'll see more success for that type of film within the short category of documentaries than the feature category, where maybe they want to highlight a specific uh issue or a specific um uh subject matter.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And uh in the last short was uh We Were the Scenery, which is very a very interesting short that I got to see um about uh a man and a woman um uh partners uh who uh uh fled the country um at the end of Vietnam, but actually um end up appearing as extras during uh the filming of Apocalypse Now. And it's sort of interesting to see their perspective of what it was like to be extras on that film. And uh it's a very well done short. Um, I think that possibly it it's its concept is so singular and so specific that it might, you know, not have that um uh broader appeal. That's wide enough for each right for to some voters, right? Because again, it's a very well done short. Um that uh it might not make the final five, but it is very well done, and it's I'm happy to see in these in this top 15. Yeah. And so as we can, as you've seen, there's a lot of timely issues, especially um issues dealing, you know, domestic. Right. Um, and that's very uh typical for this short category. Um, and uh there are almost no bad films here, they're all very good films.
SPEAKER_01:I was gonna say, as you can probably tell from our descriptions, it doesn't seem like there's a dud in the entire list. You can you can have a top 15 uh nominees, and it sounds like you would have a very rewarding list.
SPEAKER_02:Um but uh that's not the game we're playing. So for documentary short, the ones that we're going to be predicting are all the empty rooms, armed with only a camera, the life and death of Brent Renaud, The Devil is Busy, All the Walls Came Down, and Classroom 4. Some close calls were Children No More, Rovina's Choice, and Last Days on Lake Trinity.
SPEAKER_01:This is, I think, one of the categories that's especially difficult to um get correct. Um, because he's as we just said, there's there's there's so many good, so much good work here. Yeah, um, that it's I'm sure that the final nominees, you know, they end up being inches, not miles between them. Right. Um, but we are, I think, sort of saying uh HBO will double down and get two nominations, and um New Yorker will sit out, um, and PBS uh POV will get in for classroom four. And that makes, of course, the favorite here to pick up the win.
unknown:Right.
SPEAKER_02:And I will use that as a bridge to go into our next category, which is documentary feature. Again, a lot of strong films on this list, but there were also a lot of snubs that people were surprised that weren't included in the final fifteen. Same voting base. Yeah, and again, documentarians are the ones that are going to be voting for both uh documentary short and documentary feature. Um, the Alabama solution, which premiered at Sundance, have not gotten the opportunity to see it. You've seen you've seen some of it.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, previous nominee um Andrew Gerecki, um, who was nominated for Capturing the Freedmen's, is on this. Um, I think uh it you know automatically has um this pedigree that's gonna immediately compel voters because it's sort of like one of those documentaries where they're using, you know, quote unquote forbidden footage because they're sneaking these cameras in and giving you a live in-the-moment personal testimony um to what's going on in the Alabama incarceration system. And again, that theme of incarceration was revisited in the documentary Short Race. So watch for uh voters to want to try to include some of that.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, possibly. And uh another uh film, Apocalypse in the Tropics, um, is a favorite among some. Um, and it's sort of a companion piece to Petra Costa's um 20 2019 nominated film, The Edge of Democracy. Um, obviously, you know, uh Brazil has gone through a lot of uh political turmoil over the over the past few years and was going through uh a very charged moment in 2019. Um and I think this documentary, um, you know, I I've seen this documentary and and it documents specifically, you know, the shift that's happening in Brazil towards the right and how a lot of that is influenced by um the religious movement that is happening in the country uh concurrently, and how those religious leaders are um using their influence to uh kind of propel the country into a direction that fits their you know um religious agenda.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um and I it's an incredibly fascinating documentary that has a lot, um, uh there's a lot being echoed in that documentary and in Brazil as a whole that's happening here in this country, right, the US. And I think that a lot of voters are going to appreciate and respond to that. And Petra is such a such a strong filmmaker that um, you know, her her her investigation is very thorough, yeah, and and and very palpable too.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, it's it's also I think very like uh has like a very wide scope, right? In terms of they're tackling a specific subject matter, but it has it's so far reaching. Yeah. Um, but then I think also we should mention this uh particular branch. You know, they like international films, um, Brazil and Brazilian cinemas having a moment, you know, as evidenced by last year's I'm still here, this year's a secret agent. Can that extend into documentary feature? Um, this is coming from Netflix, which was also responsible for the nomination for The Edge of Democracy, which is great. But also, Plan B is on this. Um, and Plan B is on here for a couple of films. Um, and so watch for something like that to happen. Plan B, you know, becoming like uh an early sort of arthouse favorite, not an early, but a more established arthouse favorite at the Academy Awards.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, coexistence my ass has to do with a Israeli um uh activist. Uh, but she's uh she you know uh also became a comedian and is sort of chronicling, you know, the kind of um territory that she has to bridge between, you know, uh her political, you know, um activism and uh comedy. And I think it's a very interesting, uh seems like a very interesting documentary that we have not gotten a chance to see.
SPEAKER_01:And that's coming out of Sundance. Um, but interestingly enough, there's maybe a documentary that sort of parallels that um and that came out of Berlin last year holding Lyot. Um, and it's sort of documenting the uh journey of this family to petition and try to get um their daughter back. Um, this woman who uh was one of the victims of October 7th was kidnapped. Um and you sort of witness the family um come to terms with what's happened to her, but also interestingly enough, it's a very dimensional portrait because they're also very sympathetic as to um the larger uh political and cultural and social issues at play here um in the entire uh Gaza conflict. And so they they come to the US and they're not only pleading for the return of their of their loved one, but they're also, you know, they're also pushing for peace, um, and they're also pushing for understanding. But at the same time, you understand that in this situation it's incredibly volatile emotionally, and they must be dealing with a lot of grief. Um, and so this has, I think this just opened up and then maybe a factor. Um, Darren Aronofsky, I believe, is an executive producer on this, I believe it won an award at Berlin. Um, again, this is as we talk about, you know, the documentary between the short and the feature branch, we also have um holding Lyot, but Children of More was there. And so this this topic is very front of mind to documentarians right now. Yeah, um, and the and the and the film sounds um extraordinary. And um, there have been interviews with um Lyot, which in the documentary you'll see um she does, she is able to to return to her family, um, although not it's not without its tragedy. Um, and so watch for that to resonate with some voters.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, there's the new Laura Portros documentary cover up. Um that's she's a co-director on uh Mark Obenhaus is the other uh co-director, and it's chronicling the life work of journalist Seymour Hirsch, you know, the very reputable journalist. Um, you know, Laura Portros documentaries are known for being very uh confrontational and getting to these, you know, uh very pro complicated areas of these life figures and really kind of distilling and and and and and and and dropping you and and and really in in in the essence of these uh of these complicated matters. Like Nan Golden. Exactly. Yeah, which is one of my favorite films that I gave. Um and so she has that new documentary, uh, which I have not been able to catch. Well, that's from Netflix, that's from Netflix, another Netflix film.
SPEAKER_01:Plan B's on that. Right. Um, and again, another topic that's broadly on here is the idea of journalism. I mean, this is another um journalist who was sort of trying to expose the wrongdoing of the US during the Vietnam War. Um, but journalism in from an international sort of point of view is front and center on this list. Um, so that's interesting to see.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and on that note, um, one of the big films that made the short list here, which was really nice to see. Um, and some people were not sure that it would, is My Undesirable Friends, um, part one. Uh Last Air in Moscow, which has been a critic's favorite. It actually won the National National Society of Film Critics, the LA Film Critics, and the New York Film Critics, which is a very, very uh powerful tool to have and not personal. Yeah, not doesn't happen as often as well. It doesn't happen often. And uh, so that's a heavy critic's favorite, but it's one of its things, people one of its uh most uh talked about elements is that it's five hours long.
SPEAKER_01:It's a such an ambitious undertaking. It's an immense, immense project. Yeah. And again, you're sort of forced to watch all these films in order to vote for them. So you do wonder like how to do that.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, but we've talked about it today, but we've talked about it, and I think that sort of the cumulative power that's in that film, I think is going to work in its favor. Because if you have to see the entire, the entirety of the film, I think you're gonna walk away from the film feeling, you know, uh very, very, uh, you know, very compelled. Yeah. And so um, I think that's actually an asset that it has.
SPEAKER_01:And again, sort of the parallel here about the the the perilous moment that journalism from an international global point of view is facing, and certainly how this mirrors some of the worst fears here in the US today.
SPEAKER_02:I think there's yet another film that's dealing with these themes, and that's Mr. Nobody Against Putin, albeit in a uh slightly more um, I don't know if I want to say accessible, but there is this undercurrent of that documentary that's kind of, you know, he's kind of it's charming and it's kind of quirky, you know, but at the same time, it's a very serious uh matter that that that the documentarian is going through and is uh sort of documenting this moment in his school. Um for the school, and so he's uh documenting this moment where uh Russia is trying to actively, you know, um uh propagandize, you know, the school and these children um uh to promote you know these positive messages of going into Ukraine and war and whatnot. They're trying to frame the narrative. Exactly. And so, you know, it's really fascinating and uh really uh complex, right, but also really accessible and really approachable. So that was so it's it's a documentary that is very again, the the the topic is very serious, but it there's no there's no uh it's very it's it's it's understandable why it was so uh well received at Sundance. It was a big uh uh uh you know hit amongst viewers.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely. I mean, and and to that end, it was just picked up by King of Lorber, um, which is important, but I thought it was going it was the official submission of Denmark, and we had predicted that it would make the Final 15 for foreign film along with documentary. It did not, but it at least made documentary. Um was a big hit at Sundance. But Oscar voting finished last week and Denmark is in headlines, and um, you know, uh taking land that doesn't belong to you is in the headlines. Yeah, um, framing narratives is in the headlines, and I think over the recent few weeks, we've seen this title grow in popularity in terms of its likelihood to be nominated, and when it wouldn't be surprising, there's also an element of it to me that sort of parallels sort of the Alabama solution in the sense that like again, there it's like this forbidden footage that you're not supposed to be seeing, right? That this uh this teacher is taking and sort of contextualizing in the appropriate way, right? And so I that that is something that I think appeals to voters, right? Right, when you take the camera and you take the point of view into these spaces that they otherwise did not have access to.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And on a related note, there's also the following the next feature from the documentary and the one for 20 days at Maori Pool, 2000 Meters to Andrifka, which premiered at Sundance.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and again, there are also these a lot of overlap between these films, like um Mr. Nobody Against Putin premieres at Sundance, um uh wide acclaim, um brought to you by PBS. I think at this moment it is still very much a favorite to get that nomination. Um, sort of a film that uh attracts the effort um of the Ukrainians um to uh take the city of Andrivka, which is a part of um their offensive to turn the tide um on their war against Russia. And so it's very much there's there's a lot of um you know footage of the battle scenes there. Um very visceral, very harrowing. Um, a lot of like footage coming, for example, from the helmets of these actual soldiers that are involved in the conflict. Um, and so again, another film tackling that subject matter, um, which again is an advantage, but it could also be a liability because there's so many of them. You know, which way do voters go? Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um speaking of Sundance, another film that premiered and won its section of uh world documentary is Cutting Through Rocks, which uh chronicle chronicles a woman um in her Iranian village who becomes the first female counselor, and she uses her position um in part to try to teach girls how to ride motorcycles in an effort to fight child marriage, which sounds like an incredible story. We have not gotten a chance to see this this film. Um, but again, it won its section at Sundance, which is no small thing. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um We had predicted it as one of the top 15 uh films on here, even though a lot of people did not um because we knew that the subject matter would appeal to the voters. So we're not surprised that it's in this position at all.
SPEAKER_02:It's very much again, we feel we feel the same. It's very much a subject matter that we think is going to appeal strongly, and the people are sleeping on this film as being a potential surprise for this category. Um and continuing on the Sundance trend, there's folktales by filmmakers Rachel Grady and Heidi Ewing. We have seen films from Heidi Ewing in the past, she's a very, very talented filmmaker. Um, and uh folktales is about uh uh teenagers in a high school in Arctic Norway, you know, going sort of, you know, um uh tracking their, you know, uh adulthood or transition into adulthood, but through this very interesting setting. Um and uh it was also a crowd pleasure when we were at Sundance. Uh we didn't get a chance to see it, uh, but we're not surprised that it made this top 15. And another film that went to Sundance is Come See Me in the Good Light. Right.
SPEAKER_01:And that's from um Ryan White, who uh last directed Good Night Opie, who a lot of people figured as a favorite in this category. Uh, I think maybe in 2022, but that did not um come to pass. Um again, another huge hit at Sundance from Apple TV, um, sort of chart charting um the life of Andrea Gibson, um, who was diagnosed with terminal cancer. Um this film also up for original song. Uh Brandy Carlisle is on that track along with Andrea Gibson, um, the the poet at the center of the film. Um, very moving film. Um, I I don't know if there's enough of a social um or political issue at the heart of it, um, despite how poignant it is. Right.
SPEAKER_02:They tend to shy away from uh more personal, intimate stories, you know, uh unless they focus on a on a larger, you know, sociopolitical topic.
SPEAKER_01:They absolutely do. That said, I do think this film is incredibly moving, and so I wouldn't be shocked to see it in the final five. At the same time, I think the area to maybe look out for it is um in the original song category um where you have Brandy Carlisle and Andrew Gibson and Sarah Berry Ellis um attacking together, yeah, working together on that.
SPEAKER_02:Uh again, yet another Sundance film, Seeds, which won the documentary US section. Um, I believe it also won Best Director at the IDA recently, the International Documentary and Association. Um and it's an exploration of uh black generational farmers, but it's done in a very lyrical, black and white aesthetic style. Uh it's very singular from what I've heard. I haven't gotten a chance to see it. Um, and uh I know there are a lot of fans for this film. I wonder if it's too intimate to break in to this group of to this group, but I will say if you look at the pattern of documentary films that typically make the the the final five, at least this has been the recent pattern, there is at least one film that kind of departs from the usual structure point A to point B kind of uh storytelling um uh documentary and is more uh you know about kind of just living and breathing in this particular style um uh of that the filmmaker chooses to chronicle this particular life or these particular lives. Um think about recently uh Hale County um this morning, this evening, you know, things that you know are are somewhat experimental in nature, not maybe not completely, but definitely not your typical um uh documentary documentary. Right. Um so that's seeds. Um, and yet another film is Yanouni, which I believe had its premiere at Tribeca, I believe. And Leonard DiCaprio's a title of the film.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, Leo DiCaprio's on. This is a producer from the director of Sea of Shadows, um, which I think Leo was involved with um back in 2019. Um, a film chronicling uh the indigenous chief of the Shapaya people as um they tried to uh fight for their land rights in the Brazilian Amazon. Um again, I think that the question is will it have enough of an edge to score what should be, you know, one, two, maybe even three spots that go to documentaries that have a wider international appeal. At least that's the trend we've been seeing lately.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, another very fascinating documentary that made the short list that I've heard great things about what we have not had an opportunity to see is Mistress the Speller, um, about a a woman, a Chinese woman, who's labeled a mistress the speller, and basically her job is to break up affairs. Uh sounds absolutely fascinating. Um, I'd love to see it. Um, I think it's a little bit outside of what they typically go for. And I think it's also attached to a studio that doesn't have a huge track record of getting into this documentary category. Um, Oscope, exactly, but it sounds fascinating. I'd love to see it. Um, and uh I believe the last film we haven't talked about is a heavy favorite for this category, and that's uh The Perfect Stranger, which is The Perfect Neighbor. I'm sorry, The Perfect Neighbor. I there's so many films called The Perfect Stranger. I don't know why that's like drilled into my mind. The perfect neighbor, which we have the privilege of watching um at Sundance when it premiered uh by Gita Ganbir, who we, as we mentioned, has another uh uh short, has another film in contention, but in the short category. And yeah, this is this is a favorite, probably the favorite.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, um, very fascinating documentary in the sense that it is reincorporating all this uh footage from an altercation that is occurring in Florida, which is pretty famous for the stand-year ground laws um between a woman and her family, a black woman, um, and the conflict that they're having with their white neighbor. Um, and there's this racial tension between them that ultimately ends in in fatality. Um at the same time, uh what's what's what's so amazing about documentary and and and moving and really um uh uh unique is this idea that it it's it's structured entirely through footage recorded in the neighborhood. There's no um talking heads um structure to it. Um what it is is instead it's stitching all of this footage that they had access to, whether it was uh maybe body cam footage, but also footage from you know um uh cameras and in homes and and you start to reconstruct uh the the crime, but you also reconstruct sort of um the environment and again the the the tensions and all this um all this all all these uh sort of social issues that are underneath the footage.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um Yeah, it sort of reminds me of a uh short film that got nominated last year, I believe, uh Incident by uh Bill Morrison, which is uh using also uh surveillance footage and and body camera footage, you know, to to to look at a shooting that happened in Chicago um in 2018. Um and and and this film by Gita is I mean, that film uh incident was innovative and and and and so impactful. And I think uh Gita is able to achieve a very similar kind of effect uh with her film.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER_02:Um and so that's a favorite. And so looking at the list, I think the ones the ones that we've agreed to uh predict for documentary feature are the perfect neighbor, my undesirable friends, which might be surprising to some people because it's so long. But like I said, I think it will be an asset. Its length will be an asset. I also think that we shouldn't underestimate the strength of having won the LA and YFCC and National Style Film Critics. I think that's the really big thing.
SPEAKER_01:That's a really big deal because it's not it's such an ambitious undertaking, but the way it's sort of shot, and again, Julia Locktave, the filmmaker, is not known for her documentaries, she's more known for her narrative films. Um this is a filmmaker um raised in the US but born in Russia, um, and she has Personal relationships with some of the some of the individuals who are the subject of the documentary, but it's very much told, not in a sort of odyssey sort of way, like um we talked about the five-hour or plus film of OJ Made in America, which incorporates a lot of interviews and archival footage. That is not the case at all. A lot of this is just being in the moment with the subjects as they're encountering, you know, this pushback from the government on a daily basis. Right. Right. And so it's very different. But I we do think that those wins at those major um places are is going to be enough to get it through the to the final five.
SPEAKER_02:And I think it will motivate voters to watch the entirety of it. Um and like I said, I think the the strength will be in being able to see the entirety of it and being really transported and uh really impacted by the cumulative power of the entire ambitious project. Right. Um so I think that's something that's going for it. Um and uh then we're also predicting cutting through rocks, which a lot of people I think are sleeping on. It's the kind of uh theme that I think uh voters in this branch tend to respond to, tend to like to highlight. I also think that we shouldn't underestimate how well it did at Sundance. I think that's something that voters um are cognizant of that matters to them.
SPEAKER_01:Um it's also I think very like a very singular documentary, like on this list.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um it's it's difficult because I think it has a strong female point of view. Um, I think there's something radical about the figure at the center of the film and very memorable. Um I I I also wonder again, you know, voting happened recently. Um with everything that's going on in Iran, if that isn't something that is is going to be front of mind for some for some voters. Right. Um, so I think that you're right. I think a lot of people are sleeping on on what effect this film will have.
SPEAKER_02:Um, the next one we're predicting is Apocalypse in the Tropics by Petra Costa, her companion piece to The Edge of Democracy. Um, it's an incredibly fascinating documentary, but what tipped us into uh predicting it is that it did so well at the IDA. Um, and it should find a place here. Um there is a little bit of a conflict, which we'll address at the very end, um, between too many Netflix films getting nominated here, which is something that I'm very worried about. Um, but right now we feel pretty strongly about this film in the fourth spot. And that last spot, I think we think is a very tough call between yet a third Netflix film, which doesn't seem likely, and that's Cover Up by Laura Potros, uh, or Mr. Nobody Against Boudin, um, which just got picked up by Kino Lorber. Kino Lorber does really well in this category. I think it's no, it's it's not a coincidence that they just bought it, yeah, um, that they just acquired the rights. Um uh again, it's a it's it's it's timely and yet very accessible and yet very serious as well. Um, I think it's something that documentarians are going to respond to, especially regarding how people, individual people, have to author their lives in such a way where in moments of great need, they're called upon to document, you know, uh these a moment in time that is bigger than yourself. Right. And uh and and in in in just documenting your life, you're really uh echoing this larger uh message, you know, through the world. I think that's something that's a that's a topic and a theme that I think would respond that that voters would would respond to.
SPEAKER_01:I also think that, like I said, I I think that there's been a huge bump in the stock of this motion of this documentary in particular, because I think it pundits and maybe voters are again starting to come around to this idea of wouldn't it be something if you have um this film that has funds from Denmark of all places um place here in this category or potentially win this category and have representatives of the film talk about, you know, the the dangers of trying to frame something and not being being not not not being able to have this um sort of more critical position of the way um uh people in power, individuals in power are presenting something with everything that's going on right now in terms of um the US administration, the US government's push um to take over Greenland, if this isn't possibly a little bit too good to pass up and a little bit too momentous of an occasion to not spotlight this film, that subject matter, the irony, invite those filmmakers and have a say on stage. I I really am wondering if that isn't part of um what's creating this, you know, groundswell support for this film making the final five.
SPEAKER_02:So it's a really tough call for that last spot um between uh cover up and Mr. Nobody Against Putin. And in a way, I think it's interesting that that last spot we're struggling between those two because in a way I think there's shared DNA between the two. Um in that, you know, uh investigative journalism, you know, it's more blatant in cover up, but I think there's a strong aspect to that that's you know as an undercurrent of what's happening in Mr. Nobody against Putin, even though it's more covert. Um and so it's really, really tough. Um, and we've been going back and forth.
SPEAKER_01:Um I think I I think at the end we have decided to side with um Laura Poitress's uh uh portrait of Seymour Hirsch. Um even though there's a lot of momentum right now for Mr. Nobody Against Putin, I think what we're deciding could be the um the difference maker is that this particular category is only being voted on by documentarians, by documentary filmmakers. Um and they may feel that the subject matter of Seymour Hirsch and and Laura Poitrus, which is a filmmaker that they're they're they're um of uh such high repute, both domestically but internationally, will probably edge out Mr. Nobody Against Putin. Um that if you know if Mr. Nobody Against Putin were to get in the final five, it probably would make a strong contender to win because everyone gets to vote for it. And if everyone was voting for this category, it may be able to land that upset. And we still think there's a chance, but right now we're gonna give this light edge to um cover up from Netflix, uh, from Netflix.
SPEAKER_02:I can't say that I feel 100% about it. You know, I will not be shocked one bit if Mr. Nobody Against Putin makes it at the very end. Uh, watch for that to happen. And also a couple of things to keep a lookout. Do not be surprised if the perfect neighbor gets shut out. I know it sounds crazy and I think it would be surprising, but this branch has a history of making surprising decisions and uh not nominating the you know, quote unquote front runner or the favorite. Keep in mind that D Agita has another film. Um, the documentarians will be watching her short, and they might end up deciding that they'd rather nominate her for the short than the feature. Consider that Netflix has to, if it gets in, shouldn't get in more than twice. They have a tough decision between those three Netflix docs.
SPEAKER_01:I think that's that may be a factor is the idea that Netflix on in our predictions is getting in three times, and that I don't know if that's ha ever happened, but it certainly does not happen often. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and so that and also keep in mind that that Laura Proto's documentary is co-directed by another filmmaker who I don't think has you know as much credit as she does, um, or as is is as well known within the documentary branch. Um, I don't believe so. And I know another favorite is the Alabama solution, which I wouldn't be surprised if it makes it. Um uh I'm sort of the reason why I was a little bit hesitant was because Andrew Derecki hasn't had the best luck with this branch. Um, he hasn't been back since Capturing the Freedmans in 2003, I believe. Um, and so I know he had a big moment with the Jinx. Right um, I wonder, but he also kind of pivoted after Capturing the Freedmans to narrative film because he directed uh No Good Deed or No Good Deeds. Oh no, all good deeds. All good deeds, I'm sorry, with Ryan Gosling and Kirsten Dunst. Um so possibly, I don't know. I I I think there might be a situation where maybe they're hesitant to welcome him back into the fold just yet. I'm not sure, but that's sort of what I'm relying on. Um the other thing I'll say also, you know, it comes to me in the good light is a huge audience favorite, right? You know, who knows if that could, you know, be enough.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, the other thing I'll say in terms of something to be aware of and look out for is if Mr. Nobody against Putin does manage to crack the final five, is that gonna play a factor against my undesirable friends? And again, they they're they're traversing similar terrain. Is there room for both?
SPEAKER_02:Right. But I'd also say that that is something that also went into our decision of not including a film like 2000 meters to Andrifka. Yes. Not only was he just here uh for um uh 20 days in Maripool, which won, which argu arguably you can make the same case for Laura Portros and having just been here for um all the beauty and the bloodshed. Um, but uh not only was he just here, I also think it's a different approach possibly than 20 20 days in Maripool.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, um, because of its uh point of view, it's it's I I think the conflict at the center of it is is different, but um I I do think that there's a lot of overlap between the two projects, which I think could potentially be to the detriment, the a detractor against Andripka.
SPEAKER_02:All right. So our five again, just to reiterate quickly, are The Perfect Neighbor, My Andusawa Friends, uh Part One, uh Last Air in Moscow, Cutting Through Rocks, Apocalypse in the Tropics, and Cover Up. And now we're moving on to our next category, uh, which is visual effects. And I think there's a very clear, easy one to predict here in this category, and that's Avatar, Fire and Ash, which should be an easy slam dunk to get nominated and to win.
SPEAKER_01:You would think so, yeah. Um, and it's certainly the favorite right now. I think um it helps that this category always has a list of finalists, um, and that's usually 10 titles. And the titles this year included Avatar, Fire and Ash, The Electric State from Netflix, which was surprising to a lot of people, F1 uh from Apple, Jurassic World Rebirth, The Lost Bus from Apple again, Sinners, uh, Superman, uh, Tron Ares, Wicked for Good, and Frankenstein. Um, and so certainly Avatar seems to have a spot reserved. I mean, there's four open.
SPEAKER_02:Um it's also important to know before you get into it that you know, uh category like visual effects relies a lot on a bake-off.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Right, right, right. So then, you know, um the these finalists are gonna go ahead and and have a presentation, um, a brief presentation, outlining, you know, how Visual Effects was used in the movie. And I I think it's open to the public, but certainly a lot of voters go. It's not a mandatory event anymore, not like it used to be. And there are rumors about how it how it went over. Yeah, there are you know, there's some people who say that you know Frankenstein underperformed, and some people were more impressed with Wicked this time, or um Sinners, or that Sinners did well, or that um Jurassic World did well, but it's it's very difficult since you're not in the room. It's conjecture. Um, but sort of analyzing just the the voting patterns of this branch in the past, um, a few things sort of come to mind. Um, the big the big award here, I think, for the guild is the visual effects society, and they usually have two um big big prizes for visual effects. Um, you know, uh a visual effects driven movie, um, best visual effects in a visual effects-driven movie has uh five nominations, five nominees, as does supporting visual effects. And usually there was a time when you can get the winner or one standout title from supporting effects into the final five visual effects nominees at the Oscars. That hasn't been the case lately. I think maybe the last film to do that was Mission Impossible Dead Reckoning, which was a surprise. Um, the more important, of course, of the two is um visual effects in a visual effects-driven film and a photoreel feature, as they're as they're as they're calling it now. No surprise. Avatar did really well with the guild, getting nominated all over the place, including this big category. Um, but the other nominees in this category that qualified for an Oscar um included F1, The Lost Bus, and Jurassic World Rebirth. And so all those films immediately have an advantage. There was some eye-popping omissions. So, you know, one title that I've always felt from the beginning of the year that should be a lock here is Superman because of its legacy, right? Um, that's also coming from Warner Brothers. Um, and so Warner Brothers is repping uh Superman and they're repping Sinners on this finalist list for visual effects. Um, Center's one of the few best picture movies on here, the other one, of course, being Frankenstein, right, from Guillermo del Toro and Netflix, um, which has gotten here before Netflix, but Frankenstein got completely shut out at the Visual Effects Society. Which I think is no small thing, which is not great. Um, which is not great, especially considering that you know some of Guillermo's other films have done well here. Um, and so I I think that that's an immediate red flag um for Frankenstein making the final five.
SPEAKER_02:Which some people might be surprised by because I think it's a favorite to make the five. Um, and we would say not so not so fast.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Um I think uh another great source is um just looking at how the BAFTA did, and lo and behold, there was a surprising omission because a film that missed, I think, the BAFTA long list was Sinners, which I think shows that there's some weakness um to potentially that film getting in there. Um I also think that visual effects is a weird category, like it's the category where you'll have the least amount of the popular films. So, you know, I remember in 2014 when you had a category that included The Winter Soldier and X-Men Days of Future Past and uh A Planet of the Apes film and Interstellar, you know, this is one of the few categories where being a best picture movie is not necessarily the best asset, right? Like the shape of water does not get in here, right? Dunkirk does not get in here. Um, remember Arrival? Arrival didn't get in here, and so visual effects Oppenheimer didn't get in here, and so visual effects poor things, visual effects artists are really hard on the films they get in here, and it's almost like sometimes they make their, they have a willful effort to try to avoid these best picture movies that don't incorporate visual effects as prominently as they would hope. Mank is another title that sort of comes to mind.
SPEAKER_02:Um but I also think that might have a lot to do with the fact that voters who are voting in mass for best picture are looking outside of just spectacle. And I think visual effects artists are particularly drawn to these very specul specul uh spectacle-driven pieces, right? Uh which oftentimes tend to be popcorn pieces. Right. You know, big studio films. Exactly.
SPEAKER_01:I think that this is one of the categories where if you looked at the category and you tabulated the box office success of all the nom of all the nominees, this and animated feature are by far the most successful categories, um, uh financially speaking. Um, but so you'll see a lot of um popcorn films, summer films, blockbuster films, franchise films um break in here.
SPEAKER_02:Um I think another important thing to note is I will also see we should see a good number of solo films show up in this category. Because so if you have a list of Sinners and Wicked and Avatar and F1 and Frankenstein, you're in the wrong list. Yeah, that's the wrong list. Because they specialize in including films that end up having as their only nomination visual facts.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And I and I will say that these voters are typically trying to point out films that um are innovative. I remember something like The Irishman getting in, which was the best picture nominee. Um, but but also that are sort of spotlighting the immense uh aspect to storytelling and visual storytelling and creativity that visual effects plays. And so they very much are looking for films that are visual effects forward. They're gonna try to nominate a film that has uh a visual effects department in in in the hundreds, if they could, rather than a visual effects department that's contained to 20 or 50 people. I remember one of the unlikely films to make it here and actually end up winning was Godzilla from Japan. But um, I think that just goes to show you that they're not beyond recognizing uh uh an international film, um a film with a limited um visual effects department, which again, that film was directed by its visual effects um head uh department head. And so that was probably really appealing to them as well. Um, but they're looking for films that are also like the Godzilla film that have these noted um the they have this immense sort of scale scale um and and um this in immense infrastructure of visual effects artists working on them. And I think, for example, that that's something that maybe hurts uh you know a film like Sinners, which has a a a big uh visual effects department, just nowhere near as big as the Avatar one, for example. And so when you after if you if you start taking out some of these titles, you're left with a handful of films. Um, some of which, as you said, we shouldn't expect to show up more than once. And in fact, this category should average, I think, like maybe two to three films that should not show up anywhere else. Um, I think after its nomination at the Visual Effects Society and its nomination at the PGA, I think there's a lot of um a lot of belief that F1 is gonna make it in here. Yeah. Um, despite again, a lot of invisible effects. But it did well at the Visual Effects Aside. Yeah, it did really well. Um, and I I think it's done really well throughout the season, especially in the Guild Awards, and this seems like an easy place to reward it. Um, it also has um the uh visual effects supervisor who was nominated for Maverick, Top Gun Maverick, right? They're working game with Joseph Kaczynski, so it would make sense to see it here. Despite everything that happened, Superman um listed for a BAFTA, snub from the big award from the Visual Effects Society. It was still nominated, I think, two or three times, and just the legacy of that project should see it through. Most Superman films, I don't want to say most, but a significant number of them have been able to make this category. It was a huge box office success um on a global scale, certainly on a domestic scale. James Gunn, the director, has had a lot of success with this category, right?
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, working on the Guardians of the Galaxies films, and he's working with the same visual effects supervisor. And so that to me is another kind of no-brainer. Um was also really well received by critics. Um so I think those three titles are safe. And potentially we have one right now that should show up once Superman. Right, Superman, because it it did not do well in the other categories. You think that that's gonna be a solo nominee? Um, Avatar, maybe not, F1, certainly not, it seems like to most people, um, including ourselves. Um, the fourth spot, I think, is actually gonna end up going to a surprise contender, um, which is The Lost Bus, which performed really well at the Visual Effects Society, listed at BAFTA from Paul Paul Greengrass. Who's been in this category before? Um, I actually don't know if he has been in this category. No, but and not at the academy, but he has had, for example, a born film or a couple of born films factor into the BAFTA. Um, the visual effects supervisor was part of No Time to Die, so they are a previous nominee. Um, but there's a lot of work here in terms of um, you know, chronicling what happened uh uh uh during the Paradise um wildfires. Um, but something that you'll often see, or you could see um reward in this category is like a an event based on uh history or a film based on. True event, and I kind of think of Deepwater Horizon, right? And so certainly this category has a history of rewarding disaster movies. You know, you think about like the Poseidon adventure or earthquake, but recently there's been this shift to like making a more prestigious, elevated disaster movie that that instead of being a strict spectacle of a disaster is instead trying to um trying to draw inspiration or or or or or trying to dramatize an actual um event that happened. Um and so Deepwater Horizon had success doing that. And I think the Lost Bus could find the same success. I think if anything, it may be worrying that the Lost Bus did not factor into categories like sound, where a Paul Greenrass film usually does really well. But I loved the fact that he got nominated for so many Visual Effects Society nominations, including the very big, the very big nomination for um visual effects driven film, which Paul Greengrass films usually don't. And I think they also like diversity in here. Like it can happen, like where you get a uh Winter Soldier and X-Men Days of Future Pass in the same time, like two superhero films, but they do like a little bit of eclecticness, yeah, right? Sort of so sort of showing you that in 2018, I remember a visual effects film can very easily be um first man, but it can just as easily deal with Winnie the Pooh, and it can also deal with a Star Wars film. And so they like a broad sort of showing of everything that visual effects can do. Um, and so considering that, I do think I don't know if you agree, but the Lost Bust sort of stands out between, you know, F1, right? Superman, Avatar, you have blockbuster films, franchise films. This is a film based on an actual event, which is different from the other ones. Um also a dramatic film. That's also a dramatic film. It's not necessarily just a popcorn film. I think another red flag potentially with including it is that is there room for two Apple films? Um that hasn't happened before. That's true. Um, but you know, Apple, it it could happen with the lineup that we have uh this year. Yeah um the last spot is is kind of tricky because again, we've already mentioned what's going against something like Sinners and and Frankenstein. Um Wicked for Good could show up. I do wonder they're not the most universally acclaimed effects, they weren't the first time either, but they still got in. But can they be nominated back to back? Um, they did not do very well at the visual effects society, but neither neither did the first one. Um I don't know. There's some people who think that the visual effects got better, there's some people who think the visual effects got worse. I I at least think the visual effects are not front and center. Um again are not the biggest strength of the film. They're not the biggest strength of the film. I think there's a reason why last year it was nominated for visual effects, but it won costume design, so to speak. And so I think you and I are thinking that the same way that Wicked for Good should have trouble or it will likely have trouble getting into production design, that sort of mirrors the trouble it will have getting into visual effects. And this is one of those films that sort of uh connects the idea of production design and visual effects. So much of the visual effects work is just amplifying the scenery and the production design um that someone like Nathan Crowley comes up with. And and sometimes voters like that, but they'd like to have elements that are a little bit more innovative or a little bit um trickier or a little bit um that's something that they have to interact with uh like on stage. Like think about something like Avatar. Yes, a lot of the environments are uh created, obviously, but the na'vi are completely created, and it's a lot of work, right? Um having to keep track of that um to tackle that. Um so I think that's what's going against Wicked. Um Jurassic World Rebirth is interesting because it's coming from Gareth Edwards, who's recently had a lot of success between uh the creator showing up here and um uh Rogue One showing up here. So is there maybe like uh some love within this branch for Gareth Edwards? Maybe um Jurassic World uh Rebirth. The problem is that no Jurassic Park film has made it in since 1997's The Lost World. Is this gonna be the one to break into the category? I think it's not the most celebrated, and I don't think it's the most innovative in terms of what they do. Um, having seen the film, um, there's some interesting things, but mostly it's the same uh same trick. And at the same time, in this particular film, you know, we've we're moving away from dinosaurs and having, you know, mutant dinosaurs that are no longer, I think, um, paleontologically active, which maybe I think some people are gonna frown upon. You know, it's it was it's always fantasy, but now we're like we're going deep into fantasy here. Um, I think at one point there's like this massive monster alien to the film. I'm sorry, massive monster T-Rex um uh derivative um experiment gone wrong. And to me, it looks like it can it should it should be it belongs in an alien movie. Um visually, I feel like there's so much DNA between the two that I feel like what franchise am I in? Um so I I do think that's a detriment. I wonder if something like um Tron Aries can overcome the odds and make it in. I think it's a film that didn't do great at the box office, didn't do great critically. Definitely didn't do great critically, but there's a lot of visual effects work in it. I think it's more visual effects forward than a film like Wicked for Good. Um there's it did get nominated a couple of times um at the Visual Effects Society, although not for the big prize. I think for you know awards like um I think maybe Cinemathy Environment. Yeah, yeah. And and those aren't bad awards to be nominated for. Um and they they'll very often nominate films that got snubbed from the from the best um visual effects category from the top category of visual effects and a visual effects-driven film, photo photo reel film. Um and again, there's just so many shots that have visual effects, and they use it in in different ways. And and if you haven't seen the movie, it's streaming technically on Disney Plus, but they incorporate you know visual language from the Tron Legacy film, they even incorporate visual language from uh the original Tron film in 1982, and I think Tron Ares has the benefit of coming from the legacy of of Tron, and it's historically done well at the Academy. The the first one in 1982 got two nominations, including a mention for sound. Um, Tron Legacy made it into like the final bake-off stage in 2010, uh, but it did not make the nomination, but it still got nominated for sound editing. Um, the one that had Garrett and Olivia Wilde in it. Um, so I don't know. I I would Tron Ares be the first chapter in the franchise to not get nominated, especially considering these um the this competition. I think something else going for it is, for example, the director who I think is does a very good job with with Disney Joaquim. Um, he directed Maleficent 2, which scored a nomination for makeup, which some people were you know skeptical about. Um he scored scored a nomination for international film for Contiki, which some people were maybe uh spectacle uh skeptical about. Um Jared Leto, I think, has had a very strange career after winning an Oscar for Dallas Bayers Club, but he doesn't go away. Like, remember when he was like leading Suicide Squad, which won an Academy Award? Right um, I think the little things made more shortlists than I would have thought. House of Gucci was a makeup nominee. Right. And so Jared Leto, I think, is a little bit of like uh you can never count out a film of his for some reason. Right. Um so I think taking all those things into account, I I I think that the smartest thing to do with the last spot is probably to give it to Tron Ares. It also didn't do too poorly on the long list. I think it got a pretty well visual effects mentioned, uh song, song, score score. Surprisingly, for a Tron film, it did not make it into sound, despite the first two only making it into sound. Um, but maybe, you know, we talk about sometimes, you know, how there's this symmetry to the entire you know circus. And so maybe what we'll see is the Tron series will continue to land at the Oscars, but it'll be the first time it lands in visual effects and the first time that it fails to land in sound. Um, and so I think that's where we're starting right now. And so our predictions for visual effects are Avatar, Fire and Ash, Superman, F1, Veloz Bus, and Tron Ares. All right, so let's take a look now at uh the category of best sound, where we do have a list of finalists from the Oscars, which includes Avatar, Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission Impossible, Dead Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked for Good, Superman, Springsteen, and Surratt, which was a surprise inclusion to a lot of people.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, well, I think there's a couple of uh films that we feel very comfortable predicting that I think are favorites. Probably the forerunner for the category is Sinners, and that should easily get a nomination. Right. Another film that a lot of people feel very comfortable about, and I think that we do as well, is F1 getting nominated here. There's usually some crossover between visual effects and sound, and that's uh a bridge can be F1 between the two of them. A film that actually has done well with uh the Sound Guild um uh motion picture sound editors is uh uh One Battle After Another did pretty well there as well. And um uh it's also uh heavily predicted to get nominated for best uh for best sound, and we we agree.
SPEAKER_01:I I I agree. I think part of the fun of this category is just the idea that um we only really have the motion picture sound editors to go off of. We don't have the information from the cinema audio society. Um then, you know, for example, you have something like Surratt, which is a little bit of an unknown. There are some films here that it's gonna be tough for them to break in, including like Springsteen and Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning. Um, but it was sort of shocking on the list of motion picture sound editors to not see Avatar Fire and Ash on there. And I think I is that the harbinger of really bad news for that film. Um, obviously, like when you think of an Avatar film, ever since you know people anticipated its release this year, it was like an automatic contender for sound. But here we are, it was snubbed from the motion picture sound editors of of all three categories, including the category of uh folding effects, I think for anemone of all films, which was really fascinating.
SPEAKER_02:Um, but then if you look at the other But if you also look at the track record for the motion picture sound editors, they have a pretty good track record of overlap with the sound category.
SPEAKER_01:They do. Um, I mean, not only do most of the nominees for the cinema audio society, which is sort of um the sound mixing side of this in terms of guilds for the Oscars, um, not only do most of those nominees come from the motion picture sound editors, but the motion picture sound editors by themselves, um, as you said, have a lot of overlap with the eventual nominees. So, like going back to when there was two categories, a category for sound mixing and for sound editing, um, they've had all of the films that were eventually nominated for the majority of the time. I think one of the few years where they ran into a roadblock was recently.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, 2023. Exactly. When uh they didn't mention Mission Impossible to Reckoning or The Creator. Yeah, exactly.
SPEAKER_01:So it can happen, but beside that, you know, like it hardly ever happens. Um, usually a eventual sound nominee for the Oscars, whether it's in two categories uh or one, they were nominated, they were nominated somewhere, right? Um, at the most picture sound editors. I think of something like The Wild Robot last year, which got somewhat of a surprise nomination. It was nominated at the most picture sound editors in the animated category. Um, you look at something like A Wicked was nominated in the um music category. Uh um a film like At Astra got a nomination there. Um films like um uh 1917 were able to get a nomination there. Um, and so the fact that it it it missed that the fact that Avatar missed a nomination anywhere on here is very, very, very troubling.
SPEAKER_02:Very. And I think not enough people are paying attention to that, even though, again, in terms of BAFTA long lists, um Avatar 3, F1, Frankenstein, Mission Impossible, One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Wicked all made the BAFTA long lists.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:I and and I think that you and I, maybe more so than some other sort of pundits, we really believe that Frankenstein should do well here.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um there's a stat that I I mean, yeah. There's a couple of stats to look at. Um, because uh the last time that Netflix missed this category was uh with a best picture nominee was in 2019 when they didn't get nominated in this category for the Irishman.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:And another thing to consider is that the last time Guillermo do Toro got uh Guillermo do Toro film got a score nomination and not a sound nomination concurrently together was Pan's Labyrinth.
SPEAKER_01:Which was which was his big breakthrough. I mean, other than that, like I one of one of the films that did really well at the motion picture sound editors from Guillermo was Nightmare Alley. Um, and it did not pick up nominations for the sound category at the Oscars, despite all that. But then again, it didn't get a nomination for score either. And so, since we do feel confident that Alexander Despla is gonna get in for his score, and we do feel confident this is gonna be a major best picture nominee for Netflix and for Guillermo. Um, and you look at the history that Netflix has had in this category, we do we do believe that Frankenstein should be on here at the end, right?
SPEAKER_02:Right. So um looking at the uh the the short list for the academy, the reason that we are hesitant to put wicked, even though some people feel more secure about it, is because if you look at the history of the academy, musicals have done well in this category, but usually they're musicals that got nominated for best picture. So musicals that got nominated for best picture, yes, they re they they show up here, but what happens when you when it's a musical that isn't nominated for best picture? Right. And I think that's where we're having a hard time seeing Wicked. At the same time, there's this overarching uh theme that I think we have to keep in mind, which is that there should be diminishing returns. Um, and so wicked should certainly get less nominations than the first time around. And then another pattern that happens is that usually sequels or you know, subsequent iterations of certain franchises, they tend to get nominated where they didn't get nominated the the previous time. Right. So the fact that Wicked got that nomination in sound last year um and doesn't stand to get an eye for Best Picture, at least that's our thinking, um, I think makes it more of a weak contender in this category. Right. Um Mission Impossible, the final reckoning.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I think it's kind of tough in the sense that the this franchise broke in, like broke through for the first time back in 2023, surprisingly, and it was able to sort of survive for a mention here, but because it didn't get any other uh long list mention, I think we think it's sort of on on the the short end here. At the same time, you know, having seen the film, there's a lot of music in the film, and I think it could be a little bit overwhelming. I know I think it got nominated for motion picture sound editors for that music, but I do wonder if there is just not enough emphasis on FX and Foley, and that's gonna be a little bit of a turnoff to some voters.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And then uh before we talk about you know what movies were between for that last spot, um Springsteen I think is a long shot um for this category. And what about Superman?
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I I think both of those films we predicted correctly to make this final list, um, and they have veteran uh sound designers working behind them. It just seems that the momentum is not with those films right now, um, that they're you know either underseen or underappreciated, and and that the other titles have uh a little bit more of an edge to to possibly crack the the the final five.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And so for that final spot, we have a little bit of a uh a tug of war between Surratt and Avatar. Right. Avatar makes sense on paper because it's Avatar, like it's designed to get this nomination. It's designed to get this nomination, but its omission from the motion picture sound editors is very glaring to us. Um, and we don't think that it's just a coincidence. At the same time. And also, as we said, there should be diminishing returns. Right. So last year, I mean in 2022, Avatar 2 was able to get four nominations, including Best Picture.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:So this year it should get less nominations, and now I would, I would, I would think even less than some people are predicting because it's not even going to get best picture, or at least that's our thinking. Right. You know, so if we don't include Avatar in this category and we don't include it in a best picture, yes, we're um basically predicting Avatar to get two nominations, production design and visual effects. That's true, but that's in line with how we think the sort of uh diminishing returns should turn out.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, how the academy usually behaves at the same time, you know, despite what we believe is is great work from the sound designers um responsible for the Spanish film Surratt, there's a lot of red flags for that film, right? Um well, first of all, it did really well at the European Film Awards.
SPEAKER_02:It won uh sound at the European Film Awards, I think it won five or six tech awards, it dominated the tech section. Right. Um, we also can't forget that it it it surprised many and overperformed in the shortlist for the Academy. Um it underperformed mostly at the shortlist for the British Academy. Right. Um we can't underestimate that we are a little bit on the streak of a foreign film landing in um the sound category. Right. You know, Amelia Paris last year, and then before that, the Zone of Interest, which won. And then before that, I think there was one more, or no. The Al Qui on the Western Front. Al Quiet on the Western Front.
SPEAKER_01:And I think all those films were uh nominees at the Motion Picture Sound Editors, and Surratt is a nominee this year. In the foreign section. In the foreign section at the motion picture sound editors, and that is a very good sign. At the same time, look at the films you just mentioned. You mentioned Emilia Perez, The Zone of Interest, and All Quiet on the Western Front. They all have something in common, you know, they're all best picture movies. Um, and that's sort of the question here is you know, if you put Surratt in, logically it follows that it should be a best picture movie because the foreign films that make it into this category are best picture movies.
SPEAKER_02:They tend to go all the way to best picture, especially when you're already considering a few nominations for Surratt, as we are in foreign language film, um, sound design possibly. You know, we predicted it for score in the last episode. Um And we're gonna keep talking about it. So that's easily four to five nominations if you include best picture.
SPEAKER_01:And we're talking about it like a wider window, because this is true even when the window was sort of small. Like one of the few uh foreign films that made it into sound that did not get a best picture mention was Emily, right? But in a year of 10, Amal Lee would have made it in.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And so with the expanded list, um, to get this sound nomination for Surratt and to not uh get an eye for best picture would be fascinating. Yeah. Throw into the fact that Surratt has yet to come out to a major audience, right? It's gonna open up uh in February in the States. Right in time for after Oscar nominations. Because sound is people are hyper-focusing rightfully so on the job that they did with a very limited team, led by, and I think mostly led by a women, a Spanish women, including what is being credited by Neon as the sound designer, and she was also a supervising sound editor for the film, Le uh Lea Casanovas, who won the European Film Award, as you mentioned. But because sound is like a character in this film, you know, the sound work with the effects, the soundscape is so integral to the experience of the film. Exactly. And this has been like the narrative of the film ever since Can, when we would talk to people about it, people who had seen the film. There's a chance that between One Battle and Sinners and Frankenstein and all these bigger best picture movies, F1, and you have all these disparate elements of things that could be winners here, right? You have a Guillaume do Toro fantasy monster movie based on a legacy work. You have the front runner for Best Picture, where you're, you know, you got this car racing through hills, and you have guns and you have the military and you have sinners and music and vampires, and you have F1 and racing. That between all those things, there is certainly a shot that somehow, if nominated, Surat could walk out with the win. Right. Right. And that could be the win for Surratt because it's gonna be difficult for it to win foreign film or any other category that it's in. Yeah. But because the the I the sound of it is so storied, you can see it winning that category. Sort of like zone of interest, where like on the paper, maybe it's not as showy as the work at Oppenheimer, which I had maybe figured for the win, or maybe even Maestro, the zone of interest and sort of the nuance of what it was trying to tackle with its sound work was more than enough to get that win. It's sort of thematic power. Exactly, the thematic power of the sound design. And you kind of wonder if we're if Sarak gets in, if we're in store for that to happen, which again, I would argue if that does happen, if it gets nominated, it makes sense for it to be a best picture nominee. If it wins, it makes double sense for it to be a best picture nominee. And so we're sort of in this sort of conundrum where on paper it looks really good, but it is not Amelia at this moment in the race, right? It's not Amelia Perez, it is not the zone of interest, and it is not Alcohine on the Western Front. It's not going to lead BAFTA nominations, it didn't lead Golden Globe nominations. Right. Um, at the same time, you know, that narrative of of what uh Leah Casanovas was able to do with it is amazing. That being said, we did do some research and we saw that Leah is credited as the as the uh sound editor, the supervising sound editor for the film. And in general, sound designers they give a little bit more priority to the mixers of their film. Um and what what I mean by that is when you see um the a list of Oscar nominees for the sound category, you'll see a team of four to five people, three people maybe, because you have a mix of sound editors and mixers, and usually mixers outnumber the sound editors by a by a wide margin, which is kind of weird that Neon is really campaigning Leo, but not her counterparts, the production sound mixer and the re-recording mixer, um, who also did a great job. I wonder if it does get nominated, does the academy say I want to nominate the entire sound team, or are they gonna are they gonna be forced to just nominate Leo?
SPEAKER_02:Because she's listed on the Neon uh for your conservation.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, she's the only one listed. And when when it wins the European Film Award, she's the only one who accepts the prize and the only one listed, yeah, which is kind of interesting. Um, and certainly there are some sound editing films that book the trend and can make the final five, and and maybe this film could be one of them. But I do wonder if some sound designers are gonna take issue with the fact of here I am, I'm nominating a five-person team from all these films, and then I'm gonna nominate just one sound editor from Surratt.
SPEAKER_02:Right, right?
SPEAKER_01:100%.
SPEAKER_02:But I think all things considered, what we ended up um basically agreeing on is that we don't like the avatar snub from the motion picture sound editors. Too fishy. We taking into account dimission returns, um, and that we already have avatar for production design and visual effects. Um and taking into account that uh the academy has become more international, and that in this sound category, it's really an opportunity for uh international foreign sound designers to uh include a film, an international film, where sound and sound work and soundscape was so at the forefront of its achievement and its cinematic power. You know, so all those things considered, I think we've agreed that the final slot we're giving to Surratt. Yeah. Even if we're still a little bit unsteady regarding how do we think it's gonna make best picture or not. Um, but we're going with Surratt over Avatar, and that's a hard thing to say. Right.
SPEAKER_00:Who would have thought at the beginning of the year, you know, even after Can that it's gonna be Surrat over Avatar.
SPEAKER_02:So we'll see what happens. Right. So our final predictions are for sound design, centers, one battle after another, F1, Frankenstein, and Surratt. Okay, and now moving on to our final category for this episode, and that's makeup and hairstyling and similar to visual effects. There's a bake-off for this category that functions in a similar way. Um, I think there's some locks in this category, and that is uh Frankenstein, which is the front runner to win this category, and Sinners. Both of them have done really well at the guilds and uh the BAFTA long list. Right. It would be a shock to see either of them miss.
SPEAKER_01:That being said, I will say those two filmmakers and their films are no strangers to shocking omissions. I remember when Black Panther was snubbed in 2018 and when The Shape of Water was snubbed in 2017, so it's kind of poetic justice to have them both here at the same time. And Dune Part 2 was famously snubbed as Dune Part 2 was was famously snubbed, um, which is you know diminishing returns again.
SPEAKER_02:Um but I will say when we look at the when we look at the entire, at least, you know, we're not privy to the makeup bake-off, but when you look at the list, I feel like there's a little bit less room to be to have like a shocking omission. You know, the list includes besides Frankenstein and Cinners, Alto Knights, Marty Supreme, Nuremberg, One Battle After Another, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister, and Wicked for Good.
SPEAKER_01:As well as well as Kukou. And we got a lot of these uh right, and we sort of uh sniffed out a lot of these surprise contenders, including The Ugly Stepsister, Kakuho. Um, so I'm not surprised. Uh BAFTA Longlist had some of these overlap, including Frankenstein, Maure Supreme, Nuremberg, one bad after another, uh Smashing Machine and Wicked for Good. Surprise, surprise. The two titles that did not show up at BAFTA, but showed up at the Oscar long list with the two international titles, Kokuho and Ugly Stepsister. So we continue with our narrative trend here of you know the presence of international contenders in almost across all categories. Um, and this is one of the few categories where we're not going to see the neon ones, but we are seeing international films, Kakuho from Japan, the official entry for foreign film, Ugly Stepsister showed up at Sundance. So it's great to see it here. A really welcome surprise. Um, here's the thing is usually for the past two years, we've had a title show up at the Oscars that was not included at the BAFTA long list. So, like, think of last year when a different man was nominated, um, the year before that, Society of the Snow. Um, in particular, I think international titles tension to wealth. Right. Um, like some of the recent international films that were nominated here were Emilian Perez, um Al Qar on the Western Front, and those were best picture movies. But historically, this branch has been great at highlighting um the makeup work from international productions, and that includes, for example, like A Man Called Of, um, Border was nominated here in 2018, Pinocchio in during the pandemic in 2020 from Italy, uh, Society of the Snow recently. And so you and I are of the opinion that we should definitely see one of these international titles win out and score a nomination. Yes. The question is, which one, or can there be two? I think the other thing we've debated this entire time is Wicked for Good has enough new makeup in it that we feel like it can make it in. That being said, in the film, sometimes it's like uh a mixed bag. Like the Tin Man is really well done, but the scarecrow doesn't look great.
SPEAKER_02:It didn't look great on screen, but when you look at the work that was done to create it, it's really uh fantastic. Yeah, the prosthetics are great.
SPEAKER_01:The the wig piece, the hair piece is fantastic. But I also think that's that's part of where a bake off helps. Yes, I think that's what I was gonna tell you is I think the bake off saves the nomination for Wicked for Good. Right. And so that's one where I feel like it's gonna be easy for to see it get in. And I think, you know, Marc Coollier, um, who's got so many nominations and um so many wins, um, who's partly responsible for the prosthetics, that should factor in. And so I do feel like Wicked for Good should be able to count on a nomination in this category.
SPEAKER_02:I agree. And I think another film that I feel good about including here, um, usually the makeup category does include a film that centers around a real life figure. The makeup was used to achieve uh the look of that figure, even though last year I believe we did we broke that streak a little bit. That's because we had contenders like Maria and The Apprentice and Waltz with Brando that didn't get a nomination, despite making, I believe, the short list mention. Right. Um, but here I feel pretty good about the smashing machine making it in here. Um, the uh makeup artist responsible for the transformation for uh Dwayne Johnson is is very respected, has been nominated several times. Um, and I think this branch in particular looks forward to his work and to highlighting and celebrating his work. So I think that's a nomination that I would count on.
SPEAKER_01:I mean, I think Kazoo Hero is is really celebrated and he's responsible for makeup like in Darkest Hour and Bombshell. I think what's interesting here is that usually a Kazoo hero makeup job is accompanied by an acting nomination. Yeah. And we don't have that here this year, likely not with Smashing Machine. Um, so I do wonder if that's a little bit of a red flag. I think the work is impressive, if you know, somewhat limited because it's mostly on the character of Dwayne Johnson, even though they do an excellent job on Emily Bunt as well, but it's sort of like a two performance movie. Could that be an issue? I also think that A24 has built inroads into this category. You know, you think about the whale winning and different man, um, which is great, but is is are we gonna see uh a safty cancellation here? Because the more popular A24 film is the Josh one, right?
SPEAKER_02:Which showed up here, which I wasn't expecting, which I will say, I was quite impressed with the makeup that's used in the film because I think party because I think it's subtle, it's certainly not as showy as the smashing machine, but I thought it was very effective. Right. And you know, it was it was very uh believable to me.
SPEAKER_01:I I I do wonder, is this gonna be those the only place where you see Benny's film show up, or is Benny destined to be sort of usurped by by the more attention-calling Josh film? Yeah, certainly I think certainly the favorite right now for most people is for the smashing machine to still get in. And as you said, the real person thing is a factor, even if the performance isn't nominated. Um, solo nominations are like bread and butter here. Like if you look at Border, or if you look at again a one nomination for Golda, um, that's certainly something that is typical, and that would make the smashing machine like um the it makes sense to for it to make the final five. Um I think we're siding with Kazoo getting in for the smashing machine. Would I be shocked if there's a snub for the smashing machine? No, not necessarily. Interesting. Uh I also think that you know, sports and athletics do well here. Like I remember when Cinder Rallaman was nominated for makeup here, and so like the effects work of that, maybe that helps. Yeah, you better.
SPEAKER_02:I agree. And you know, there are a few films that we contemplated for that last spot. I mean, the Alto Knights has very um, you know, attention-calling makeup.
SPEAKER_01:And they got to make up the same guy, right? So they can look like two different biographical individuals. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Nuremberg is is recreating a real life figure or real life figures.
SPEAKER_01:Nuremberg is interesting because it did well at the BAFTA um long list. And I actually think that there is a previous Oscar nominee in the makeup team, which is really good, but it doesn't really, it's to me, it didn't read as an instant makeup contender when I saw it.
SPEAKER_02:Right. But I think ultimately we were between two films, and that's Kokuho and The Ugly Stepsister, both foreign films, and they would occupy that space we're talking about of uh, you know, at least one foreign contender. One international title. You know, The Ugly Stepsister is interesting, it's really well done makeup. I'm a big fan of the film, as you as are you.
SPEAKER_01:Um and it was a surprise to see it here, although we we I think we predicted it, and it's it shouldn't be, because this is one branch that loves fantasy and you know, they love genre films and they love fairy tales. And so again, sort of in the spirit of that mention for Pinocchio back in the pandemic, when they hear that there's a film being made, a twisted take on Cinderella. Exactly, a twisted take on Cinderella and it's on the ugly stepsister, that's immediately going to call the attention of makeup artists, uh, as as it would for the costume designers branch or some overlap there. Right. And so it's not surprising to see it um listed here at the same time. Add to that that this is coming from um I I believe uh Norwegian makeup artists, and and um, some of which have had experience on the teams for Academy Award-nominated efforts, like the 100-year-old man who um climbed out the window and and disappeared. The title's way too long. I don't know if I butchered that title, um, but as also border. And so there's a lot of members within this branch that are from Europe, um, that are from Scandinavia, and that's an immediate, immediate advantage for this film.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, where I where I think that it has some handicaps is that while this is a category that is very welcoming to genre, I mean, just last year we saw a win for uh the substance. Um, I do think that possibly, number one, I think it was surprising that a film like Weapons wasn't included and it's also within that, you know, realm, you know, the horror realm. They may be meaningful. Yeah, exactly. Um, but at the same time, I wonder if you've already have that spot with sinners. And Frankenstein, and Frankenstein, exactly. Enough of that fantasy and genre aspect that they are drawn to that they would not necessarily feel that they have to nominate a film like The Ugly Stepsister, despite it being very, very uh strong work. And I feel like they would make room for a film like Kokuho, which deals with something that they've nominated in this category before. Um, is a foreign language film that um uh might not get nominated for foreign language film. And this is an opportunity to spotlight a film that actually is the, I believe, most successful film in Japan this year. This year. I think it might be ever, but I'm not sure. Um and so again, it's just a way to spotlight an opportunity to spotlight that film that it won't that might not have elsewhere.
SPEAKER_01:I think what's interesting about Kokuho is not only was it a mentioned for international film, as you mentioned, um, but you have this idea of the makeup of the kabuki world, the makeup of the Yakuza world. There's also a lot of aging in the film. Um, so they age a lot of characters. There's some uh, I suppose, makeup effects in it, though not very much. The the teen isn't very well known, um, but there's something about um the the work and in particular the kabuki work, which is really striking and really different. Um, I actually don't think Japan has scored a nomination in this category before, so that would be pretty historic. And I think G Kids hasn't had a lot of success either, um, getting nominations in other categories beyond animated film and IFC as well is not like a popular uh distributor for Academy Awards voters. Uh where I do think it has an advantage is you're right, it comes out at just the right time, as opposed to the ugly subsistor, which has been waiting basically a year now. Kakuho's gonna try to expand in the US um in February, um, and also just the immense amount of money that it has made, right? Right. Um and I think that that is possibly the biggest advantage that that it has, even though I wonder sometimes if they're gonna maybe frown upon the idea of it's great kabuki makeup, and that's again the star of the show. And uh the individuals who are working on that end, I believe are specialists there. Um but I wonder if they're gonna feel a little bit like it's it's great stage makeup, but it's not enough movie makeup, you know, in the surrounding environment, even if there is a lot of aging. Um, but it's kind of subtle and kind of nuanced, not very pronounced, and certainly not the most, the the biggest takeaway thing. Um, versus the ugly stepsister. Um, you know, I think it's really integrated into the fairy tale aesthetic. And I think it's a film that they're gonna enjoy in the sense that beauty is part of its subject, right? Um uh uh the image is part of uh you know the uh uh the the female image and how a female presents herself is also part of the subject. And I wonder if there that's gonna be something that entices them.
SPEAKER_02:Right. So it's a tough call between those two films for that last pot, Kokuho and the Ugly Stepsister, but ultimately we sided with Kokuho. So our final predictions for makeup and hairstyling are Frankenstein, Sinners, Wicked for Good, The Smashing Machine, and Kokuho.
SPEAKER_01:All right, and that concludes uh the second batch of Oscar predictions. Uh, thank you for joining us. Um, you can check out our full Oscar predictions on our website, framesandflicker.com. Uh, follow us on Twitter at Academy Anon.
SPEAKER_02:We'll be back next time. Yeah, we'll be back actually uh with our last batch of uh Oscar predictions, which is the above the line screenplays, acting, directing, picture, and also the new category of casting. And uh that'll be our last batch. And uh until then, uh this has been Joseph. And this is Jules, and it's been a pleasure.
SPEAKER_01:If you've been enjoying the Academy Anonymous podcast and want to support the work we're doing, there's a voluntary support link in the show notes. Totally optional. Just a way to help us keep the podcast going. Thank you for listening.
SPEAKER_02:The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP calling forward slash forward slash Creative Commons.org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.
SPEAKER_01:Disclaimer. The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.