Academy Anonymous
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Join us on our noble (futile! compulsive!) mission to track the contenders, mourn the flop-aroonis, cut-down the winners, champion the over-looked and generally forecast the state of the race with “100% accuracy" (results may vary).
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Academy Anonymous
Final Oscar Predictions 2026: Acting, Screenplay, Director & Best Picture
Final Oscar Predictions (Part 3) — Acting, Directing, Writing & Best Picture | ACADEMY ANONYMOUS
In this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS, we conclude our FINAL OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Part 3), breaking down the Academy Awards’ most talked-about races — Directing, Screenwriting, Acting, and Best Picture.
Pundits insist these categories are “locked,” but history says otherwise. We’re tracking the hidden vulnerabilities, surprise snubs, and late-stage breakthroughs that could define nomination morning — and help you perfect your Oscar ballot.
We analyze the 2026 Oscar contenders in:
The Academy’s newest category: Will voters default to the status quo, or can two international films crash the party and make a statement?
Can anyone crack the consensus five — from Mary Shelley and Denis Johnson adaptations to Hamnet, Alien Bosses, and the ever-present PTA?
Richard Linklater and Ethan Hawke threaten to spoil spots long reserved for celebrated international films, while Sinnersand Marty Supreme ride undeniable momentum.
Beyond the perceived “safe” picks (One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value), are Paul Mescal or Jacob Elordi far more vulnerable than expected? And who’s waiting to capitalize on a major snub?
A volatile three-way race anchors the category, but the final slots are wide open. Can recent SAG snubs be overcome? Are surprise veterans or pop-culture wildcards ready to surge? Expect chaos.
The most competitive acting race of the year — and someone big is missing. Is it Michael B. Jordan or Joel Edgerton? Can Jesse Plemons convert SAG momentum? Is Wagner Moura truly safe?
Buckley is the clear frontrunner, while Chase Infiniti carries the category’s strongest momentum. Renate Reinsve capitalizes on European love, while Rose Byne defeats the odds. The final slot becomes a high-stakes showdown between a favorite and a comeback-gal.
Clear locks, international threats, shocking snubs, and one potential jaw-dropper that could redefine the race entirely.
Studio heavyweights, Netflix contenders, acclaimed international films, and underdogs all feel “safe”… but only one slot remains. Will it go to another daring foreign-language breakout or a late-career auteur passion project?
If you want to understand where the Oscar races are actually fragile, and where the Academy is most likely to surprise, this is the episode to hear before nomination morning.
Hey everybody, and welcome to a new episode of the Academy Anonymous Podcast, where we're tracking all the updates on this year's Oscar race. That's going to happen in February of 2026. Nominees are going to come out soon. We've uh recently done two episodes with the first couple of batches of um prediction final predictions for Oscar nominations. Uh, this is the third episode, um, the culmination, and we're doing the last, I think around eight categories, including the acting screenplay, and of course, best picture. Thank you for joining us. Um, I'm your host, Joseph.
SPEAKER_01:And I'm Jules, and welcome. So it's been a long way. We've already done two full episodes, as you said, Joseph, uh, where we tackle all the categories. And in this episode, we're going to tackle on specifically above the line, the two screenplay categories, the four acting categories, director picture, and as well as the new category that everyone's talking about, best casting.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, we'll be going through that. Just a quick reminder check out our Twitter account at Academy Anon and our website, framesandflickr.com. Both of them are listed on the cover art for the podcast. So let's get right to it. Um, exciting to do the uh final uh, I think eight or nine categories. Right. Um, usually the ones that most people who aren't Cinephiles are paying attention to, and even Cinephiles, the ones they're most looking forward to. Yes. Um, and I think there's a lot of cement, cementation, quote unquote, uh um, of what you know the favorites are per category, but I do think we're in for some surprises that some people either aren't paying enough attention to or are disregarding that I think shouldn't, they shouldn't be. Um, some interesting uh surprises I think we're in store for. So uh let's start with the new category, which is best casting.
SPEAKER_02:That's exciting because we don't know what the trajectory is gonna be. It's the first time we're getting this category, so we don't know exactly what they're looking for. Fortunately, we do have a list of finalists that the Academy did.
SPEAKER_01:I will say that I think most of us, you know, were disappointed by the short list because it's very uh what you would expect. It's not very imaginative. There weren't a lot of surprises there. Just one or two. One or two. Um, so it's it's considering a lot of the other options that they had to uh draw from, I think it's a little bit of a lackluster list. But anyway, the short list is um Sinners, one bout after another, Hamnet, Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, the Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Surratt, Weapons, and Wicked for Good, with the biggest surprises being Surratt, which had a great day at the shortlist, as we've mentioned several times. In general, and the secret agent made it making it to casting, which would be an amazing nomination. That's a terrific ensemble.
SPEAKER_02:I think weapons was somewhat surprising, also. Really?
SPEAKER_01:I think that was that surprising.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I wasn't pegging, I wasn't pegging it. I mean, when I wasn't pegging uh weapons as a casting finalist and not a makeup finalist.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I think the the snuff for makeup was more surprising, but okay. Um, okay, so uh there's not a lot to go with here besides again, judging by the list that we're given, it doesn't look like it's gonna be a super experimental list. It looks like it's gonna be a safe list.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:So the safer you are, the better you are. That being said, we are gonna make some uh guesses here that I think most people aren't making.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, there we do have a little bit of info in the sense that we do have the nominees from the casting society.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And we do have a look at the BAFTA long list if that helps.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, so we're using that as, you know, kind of our really one of a few metrics that we can use to sort of gouge what might happen. Um, let's start with the casting society. They have several categories, but in terms of the short list, the only ones that matter, you know, the only films that are shortlisted that actually got a nomination were Sinners, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Wicked. I think interestingly enough, Sentimental Value got the nomination in the drama category, I think independent drama, and not in the foreign category.
SPEAKER_02:I think it's also interesting to know that one battle after another did not get the nomination, but the casting director, I don't think, is part of the guild, so that might have been a result of the two things.
SPEAKER_01:Same reason. Oh, interesting. So both of those were glaring uh omissions, but I from what I've read and heard, I think both casting directors uh I guess aren't part of that society, so they can't be eligible. Eligible, I believe that's what happened.
SPEAKER_02:And the other two foreign films, The Secret Agent and Surratt did not place.
SPEAKER_01:No. Um, but I will say, interestingly enough, that if we look at the BAFTA long list, um, Surratt did place there, which I think is no small thing, because as we said, Surratt did not have a great day for a BAFTA long list, but it still managed to take a spot here. And if you've seen the movie, you absolutely know why this film absolutely deserves a casting, does it uh a casting uh nomination? It's one of the highlights of the piece.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and uh that's interesting because Surratt, you know, it misses score, it misses sound in terms of the BAFTA long list, but it does get casting, so there's that just kind of you know tips us off that there's something consistent and there's something there.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, 100%. Um, the other films that made the BAFTA long list for casting were Sinners, One Battle After Another, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value again. Um, another thing that I encouraged both of us to pay attention to is the European Film Awards have a casting category, and both Surratt and Sentimental Value were nominated. I forget what the third nominee was, but it's not something that made the Oscar shortlist. Um, and interestingly enough, uh Surratt won that award just recently, which is a bit which again, I think is not a small thing and that we shouldn't overlook. I would agree. Um, so based on that limited knowledge that we have, again, we have slim pickings here. We have just 10 10 movies to choose from, and but and two that are essentially locked in, right? Right. Um, I will say that Frankenstein was managed to get both of those things that we cited the Baptist and Longlist and the Casting Society, and a SAG ensemble mention. And a sag ensemble mention, which again is is no small thing, and wicked to get a casting society a mention as well, but no Baptist Long List. Yeah. Um in terms of Wicked, some people have brought up the notion that possibly casting directors who are voting for this award might be interested in mentioning it as a you know, uh as a way of uh spotlighting both part one and part two, since this is the first time that there's a a casting category in a way, kind of giving them a nomination here for both. Um I wouldn't be opposed to considering that, except that I think it's a competitive field with the seven films that I think we're most uh paying attention to.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:I'm not really sure that Wicked for Good as a film is strong enough to sort of penetrate that bubble of those core seven. The core seven being Sinners and One Bad After Another, which in our opinion are the locks.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Even if Oba missed the casting society mention, and the other ones being Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Surratt. So not seven, six. Um, okay, and really, so we've got three spots, we've got four films. So one of them gets the short end of the stick, right? If we're looking at what people are mostly pegging, they're mostly pegging the favorites. Uh let's uh rounding out the list with Hamnet, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value. Yeah. Which makes sense. It's a five that makes sense. They do make sense. I like the sentiment sentimental value is there. Yeah. Um, but I'm gonna have to disagree disagree. I think we both disagree, and I think we both feel positive about Surratt, you know, landing a nomination here. Yeah. Again, um I know the film isn't in in in wide release just yet, but if you've seen the film, you know the casting of the film is very specific, it's very precise, and it's certainly a highlight of the piece. And I think that's one reason that we keep seeing it pop up here in these uh casting mentions. Yeah. Um, I think it would be a very worthy worthy nomination, and I think that's I think those are reasons, some of the reasons why I won the European Film Award just a couple a few days ago. Um, what do you think?
SPEAKER_02:I I think I think you're right. I think it's the win at the European Film Awards where I think it was nominated against sentimental value. That to me, I think is the feather in its cap to getting the nomination. Um so between that and it being one of the few things or the only things um where it was able to land at the Baptist along list sort of makes me feel like casting directors have caught on to the achievement that the film has in terms of casting. And so, yeah, I agree that that movie's gonna get in, which means one of the more favorite films or one of the more um established films in the picture race is probably gonna get knocked off. The question is is who?
SPEAKER_01:Right. And so it's a matter of who do we knock out for that spot, Hamnet. Um, or who do we knock off for Surrat, Hamnet or Marty Supreme? And of the two, I feel less enthused about knocking off Hamnet, even though I think Marty Supreme deserves more of a nomination here than Hamnet, um, personally. Um, however, the casting director for Hamnet is very reputable. In fact, I think she has around more than 40 nominations for the casting society. Um, this is uh gonna be a category that is voted on by casting directors, and so a name that's very reputable, very respected, very celebrated. I have to think that in the inaugural, you know, uh commencement of this category, they would want to spotlight her.
SPEAKER_02:That makes a lot of sense. Um I think the downside is, you know, for Hamnet, it's not a wide cast. And again, the challenge here is we don't know exactly what criteria casting directors are gonna have to establish this five. So for example, you know, we may say that, well, they were able to do a brilliant casting job putting Jacoby in that central role, but he's also the the brother of Noah, right? So we don't know how wide that search actually was. Um and then there are smaller parts, um, Joel and Emily Watson, and of course the two leads, but but you know, they're all pretty much established uh actors, um and there's nothing necessarily uh uh surprising in the context of of how they're being used. Um the thing about Marty Supreme is how many speaking roles does that film have? Like several. You know, that's uh that's the advantage of Marty Supreme. Now, how many of them, you know, are established actors? Not very many of them, how many of them you know are street casting, but then the disadvantage of Marty, in my opinion, is the idea of well, does a casting director frown upon or champion the idea that they were that they decided to cast Kevin O'Leary and Gwyneth Paltrow and Tyler the Creator, and sort of it's a film that's very much inspired by the real world, right? The the the world we live in um to help determine these casting decisions, um, as opposed to a casting director saying, you know, the part that Kevin O'Leary played, he may have done a fantastic job. But if I I wonder if it could have gone to a more um to someone who's in the acting field, right? Who makes that their profession. And the same thing with Tyler the Creator. Um and even um Gwyneth Paltra, even though there's a certain symmetry to casting Gwynneth Paltrow as the actor that comes out of retirement. And so um there are all these elements, all the number of speaking parts, the um specificity um that they have, the street casting, the sort of you know, pop casting, if you will. Um but does the is that sort of you know detract from what a more traditional casting director would do with a film um that wasn't Josh's.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And I think that's part of why this new category, we're going to learn a lot by who's nominated, because in in in in in certain in a certain sense, you would think that casting people, you know, out-of-the-box choices like Kevin O'Leary for a major part, and he's fantastic in it, and I'm no fan of Kevin O'Leary. Um, you know, that would be something that you could see them being attracted to that, but we don't know yet if it's actually, as you were saying, more of a detractor than a something they're attracted to. Right. And uh so Nina Gold for Hamnet is a favorite, even though, as you were saying, it's not a sprawling cast by any means. It's still got an iron for cast ensemble at the at the Screen Actors Guild, and we know casting directors and cast ensembles are not the same thing, no matter what the critic choice tries to say. As did Frankenstein, though. Um, right, exactly. Um, but uh Nina Gold again is just so uh respected in this field, um, in that community, that I have to think that she has the edge. Um, Jennifer Vendidi, uh, who's the casting director for um Marty Supreme, she works a lot with the Safety brothers, so she knows their style and what they're looking for. And I think there's a specificity to that that she has to be, you know, really good at nailing, and she is. Um, but I have to wonder, well, for example, she's had a pretty good year because she's also a part of Begonia, right? Um uh, which also gotten mentioned in the casting society, and uh, but in terms of her credits, I think also uh Nina Gold has more credits that might come into play as well, right? Um, so we know who that the two the two should be Marty Supreme and Hamlet. If it were up to me, I would say that Marty the Supreme deserves the nomination before Hamlet. But if we're trying to make room for Surratt it just makes sense that uh Jennifer Vendidi would be the low end of the poll, no?
SPEAKER_02:And don't you think that maybe there's an argument to be made that um if there is a movie that Surrat can leapfrog into this race, why wouldn't it be sentimental value?
SPEAKER_01:Right, right. Why wouldn't it be?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um well I think it's because sentimental value. I like that it got everything. It got the Bapt Alongless, it got the casting society mention in the non-foreign category, right, and it got the European Film Award. You know, um Surat is technically missing the casting society, and it could have gotten it possibly in the foreign section.
SPEAKER_02:Right. I'm saying the wind, yes. I mean, I guess maybe if there's a a little bit of a red flag, it's can there really be two foreign films? Yeah. But on the plus side, this is a list that found room for both of those and the secret agent. Yeah. So one would one could make the argument that it seems like this branch is pretty gonna be pretty open to recognizing um international talent.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. I wonder if there is a foreign film that gets knocked out. Who do you think it's do you think it's around, or you think it's sentimental value?
SPEAKER_02:I I guess I would I would lean on it being sentimental value um in the sense that first of all the the cast isn't as as wide, um, you know, some of which is are are coming on board after working with him in his previous film. Um I think the the role for Inga is a is is a discovery, but it could be matched by, you know, um roles that maybe are not too surprising for either Al Fanning or Stellanskarsgaard. Um that's the part that's a little bit tricky on on how to like pin this category down. I do feel like in my gut that there is something to the Surrat thing, you know, and and the win for Surratt where it lost so many categories to sentimental value, essentially almost all the categories that weren't above the line. Yeah, above the line categories, all the categories that were in craft categories here in this other craft category, Surratt still won. So that's why I kind of refuse to believe that Surrat is even fifth. I think Surratt is much higher than that.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um, so if we if we do decide to keep sentimental value, um, I guess you're right, it has to be between Marty and Hamnet. But a world does exist where maybe sentimental can get the boot.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, I agree a hundred percent. So our final predictions for casting are centers, one battle after another, sentimental value, Hamnet and Surratt. Okay, um, let's move on to the screenplay categories. And let's start with what I think of the two is the more um the easier category. More established, yeah. Um, and I think that's adapted screenplay. Um, I really think there's very little wiggle room here for there not to be these five, the five favorites that I think most people are predicting. Right. And that's one about after another, Hamnet, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, and Bugonia. Right. Um, I do feel like the film that is sort of left out in the cold is no other choice, which by the way has had a terrific um release here in the state so far. It's made a good amount of money and it's doing well. Solid. People are watching it. Um, I'm very happy to hear that. It's one of the best films of the year, in my opinion, as well. Um uh, but for some reason, I just feel like no other choice has been the, and we've mentioned this before, it's been uh the sort of has to take the uh the the brunt of having neon having so many choices, it's unfortunately been relegate re relegated to fifth.
SPEAKER_02:Right. I I completely agree with you. I think it's taken a huge dip over the past month, and I don't think it's necessarily recuperated at the same time, you know, it is marred in the controversy of what the debut is. That's a big deal, yeah. Um, would it be completely shocking to see it here? No, but I definitely think that um the momentum has sort of stalled um in its potential to get in here. Um, interestingly enough, if you kind of if you kind of look at this category, um, it's one of the few, I believe, um, above-the-line categories and and maybe even below the line categories where Neon will not figure, where the only movie from Neon that could do well is no other choice. So if it does do well, just you know, um be aware that that's probably neon, you know, taking advantage of not have not being able to complaint any other films here. Um some people would doubt Frankenstein, but I think that you and I have sort of decided that that major um mention at Toronto um should solidify its spot here.
SPEAKER_01:Um usually the films that at least certainly the film that wins the people's choice, but even the ones that run her up uh tend to do well in screenplay categories. They tend to figure here. But I will also say that I feel that we've seen several times already that this branch is very embracing of um iconic works in literature. And certainly Mary Shelley's Frankenstein is one of the very most iconic uh works of literature. And so in a successful film that has been also critically acclaimed, that is, has someone like Guillermo del Toro at the helm, that is backed by Netflix, it's really hard to see these writers not uh embrace the opportunity to highlight both Guillermo's script that I think is pretty faithful to the Mary Shelley uh book, and also an opportunity to highlight that iconic novel. Yeah. Um, and also I think that no matter how you feel about the Frankenstein script, I don't think it's necessarily the strongest aspect of the film, but I think that Mary Shelley's work and her words and her story um are so strong that they can't help but, you know, be ever present even in a film like Frankenstein. I agree. You know, you can, you know, the that that uh that DNA is so palpable, it's so compelling that you Can't escape it. It's it's just such a work of art.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and I think also it's kind of interesting that we talk about that sort of fad of these iconic works being adapted or readapted um for the big screen and movies like Little Women and Al Qaeda on the Western Front, they all scored here, even if they had trouble elsewhere. Um, so I think that bodes well for it. Train Dreams should be able to get a back-to-back nomination for that. So a couple of writers from SyncSing who were here in this category last year. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, I think just in between, you know, and I would even say that Train Dreams probably is uh even more favored to get a nomination here than Frankenstein. Obviously, we think that both will, but I think that's that that one comes in.
SPEAKER_02:I absolutely ones ahead. Yeah, I absolutely agree with you. I think um the PGA nomination, the support from the independent community, um, all those things um should figure out as should the the other thing that you were mentioning for Frankenstein, which is the source material, is really respected. Um and I think that that really helps a lot. Um, I think really it just comes down to the fifth spot. And you and I have decided that there right now on paper is not a contender with more momentum, especially after the BAFTA long list revealed 12 mentions for the film. There maybe isn't anyone better right now than Bugonia. Yes.
SPEAKER_01:Um I agree. Um, I feel that this is a writer, you know, he missed out a couple years ago. He was um, I think on the campaign trail for the menu. Yeah. Um, but he's uh he's known for his uh participation in succession. Um and so I think writers are aware of him. And I think unlike the menu, which again I was not a big fan of, um, I think a collaboration here with Yorgos kind of really helps tame some of the, you know, in my opinion, some of the writers more um uh impulses that don't necessarily serve the story as much. Um, I think that this was a really good marriage, a really good collaboration between the two of them. And I think Yorgos brought out the best in him and his in his writing.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and I think again, as you said, the momentum is there. It's been doing well, it did well up AFTA, the European Film Awards nominations. It really hit everywhere it's needed to hit, to be honest.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, between that and it being mentioned at the PGA and getting nine for two SAG Awards and being a best picture nominee at the Golden Globes and doing well at the guilds, whether it's the I believe production designers or costume designers, it it's it's it's hit everywhere that it's supposed to hit, as you mentioned. I will say that you know, the screenplay isn't maybe the sharpest for everyone, and he is still relatively new in his career um in terms of making uh film screenplays, and so it is not outside the realm of possibility where the film that came in third in Tiff can steal the spot, and everyone's been quiet about it. But I would not be shocked if Wake U Dead Man steals the fifth spot over Bugonia because the because he's a little bit early in his career and because it could be possibly a little divisive. Um, and um because I just don't think he has the same uh admiration uh amongst his as peers as someone like Ryan Johnson does, who has multiple nominations now.
SPEAKER_01:Right. But I also think that might be a detriment because as we've said, there should be diminishing returns. This would be the third Knives Out entity to Knives Out has never had diminishing returns because it never scored that high anyway, right? But in a way, I I feel like that in and of itself is a reason why there should be diminishing returns now because it just feels too uh repetitive. Um, and I I wonder if writers are a little bit, even though this is uh a very good knives out, um, and I think it's a much stronger one than Glass Onion, and Glass Onion did get the nomination. Um, I think writers are gonna feel, you know, a little bit. I want to try something new. I want to go towards something new, I want to highlight a new writer.
SPEAKER_02:Um and there aren't very many like films that have um, you know, trilogies. There aren't very many trilogies that that score a writing nomination throughout.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um and so that that would make sense. Um, but I do think that Ryan Johnson is a bit of a writer's writer and he's had a success here in the past. And so knowing that Bugonia, I just feel like there are gonna be people who are split on it. I I feel like it has the edge right now, but I wouldn't be surprised if Wake Up Dead Man shows up. Same thing, you know, after the the BAFTA long list, I wouldn't be nuts to see Nuremberg here, you know.
SPEAKER_01:I wanted to say that if there's one film that I have my eye on as like a potential surprise, it would be Nuremberg. You know, I know that it's sort of uh been a lackluster sort of award season thus far for Nuremberg, and it sort of hasn't uh popped up anywhere. Um certainly nowhere, you know, very significant. But it is a film that people liked and it's a film that people saw. Right. And I do imagine I do think it's a film that a certain group of voter, a certain group of voters would uh would really like, would really respond to. Um maybe this field is too competitive, but uh I have my eye on it as a as the one that could potentially surprise, even though I'm not expecting a surprise.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:All right, so our final predictions for adapted screenplay are one battle after another, Hamnet, Train Dreams, Frankenstein, and Bugonia. Okay, and now moving on to original screenplay, which I think of the two screenplay categories as the one that is uh much more opaque and uh more difficult to figure out and more ambiguous.
SPEAKER_02:And you know, when you try to jot it down to the best of your ability, looking at you know the way the the game stands, it it really does feel a little bit, it could feel a little off.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um let's uh let's start with the locks, which are in my in my opinion, are Sinners, Sentimental Value, and Marty Supreme. Marty Supreme, because it has all the momentum right now, and yes, we're kind of predicting Josh Safty to have a very big uh morning and getting mentioned for director and screenplay and as a co-editor, but I just feel like that's where the momentum for Marty Supreme is. It just ended up becoming A24's biggest hit ever. Right, as Oscar voting was closing. Yeah, um, uh you couldn't have written it better. Yeah. Um, and I think that leaves are you in agreement that this is.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I'm in agreement with all those. I will say that among the three, I want I put Sinners in the middle um because there are elements of it that I think may not that that writers may not absolutely adore. Um, that said, with that DJ nomination, I think it should be safe here, especially with this um level of competition.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I think that's a good point because I would also say that from the very beginning, I was expecting Sinners to be snubbed in this category. I don't think screenplay is its strongest asset. In fact, I think it's one of its weak weakest assets. And if you uh look at the precursors that have come out thus far, Sinners is by and large the favorite in screenplay, which is surprising. Um I again, I think it's one of its weaker elements. And I am not well, I always thought that writers would feel similarly, or uh enough of uh enough writers would feel similarly, but after it got that Golden Globe uh screenplay nomination, which I think has been has proven to be a very strong stat, um, I've had to sort of uh rethink my position on it. Right. And if you think a little bit further, since there isn't really a favorite in this category, because most of the screenplay talk has surrounded a PTA and one bout after another, it really opens the door to this being a category where Ryan Kugler could uh uh get on the stage and receive an Oscar, especially if he's destined to lose the best director Oscar, and if Sinners is destined to lose best picture, as we are very much in the thinking of right now, right? Um, this would be the category to compensate Ryan Kougler. Right. And so if you look at it that way, it makes sense for Sinners to be included here.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, no, I I think I think you're right, it does make sense. I'm just saying it I would not be shocked if it winds up short either. Now I will say that I also think the competition is helping it um because I think consensus has sort of formed that the the the the next couple of contenders should probably be um it was just an accident from Jafar Panahi from Neon and uh possibly uh the secret agent also from Neon. So two foreign titles, yeah. Um, which again, if you look at a list made up of the secret agent, it was just an accident, sentimental value, Marty Supreme, and Sinners, it's really off in in a couple of ways. Um, you know, three international titles is not common, it's not impossible. I know that it has happened, especially in like in the 60s and the 70s, and maybe maybe late 50s, but certainly in the 60s and 70s, and certainly it's happened like across both both um both uh screenplay categories, both categories, right, between adapted and original, um, if not necessarily all contained in one category, but I am pretty sure that in the past you have seen three international screenplays in just one category, so that's not impossible. Um, I do like the fact that at least um Hawking Trier is a former nominee along with Esqill because they were there for Worst Person in the World, who I think may be the favorite to win this, um, given that previous nomination. I also don't love the idea that beyond that, it's essentially a first-time screenplay nomination for Ryan Kugler, the team of um Marty Supreme, it was just an accident, secret agent. I I do wonder about that.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um, I think that's a very good point. Um, let's talk about the last two spots going to foreign films. It was just an accident and the secret agent on paper, that would make a lot of sense, right? Um, however, considering three other films that are vying for a spot here, I think it makes at least one of those foreign films vulnerable. And I think not enough people are paying attention to that. I think most people are thinking that if someone falls, it's going to be for weapons, uh, which was a huge hit um over the summer. Amy Madigan stands to get nominated. I'm of the opinion that weapons won't happen. Will I be shocked if it happens? No, not at all. Um, I think some writers might might respond to it, but I think there's a commerciality to it that I feel we're already tackling with sinners. And I also think there's a genre aspect to it that I also think sinners has already occupied. Right. And so there really isn't a need for weapons. There was a moment where I thought weapons would be a very good contender here when I was thinking that sinners wouldn't. Would fall short. Um now that we have sinners there, I think there's less of a need for weapons. And I think I I I I intuit that writers will feel the same. Um, I don't know what you think about weapons. I I think I think you're right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, I think it's sort of stalled a little bit, and I think you you'll still see it nominated, I think, at the Riders Guild Award. Um, but I I think with this with the solidification of centers, it just makes weapons less likely. I kind of feel more comfortable pegging one over the other, right? As you said.
SPEAKER_01:100%. And so then sorry, baby, I think, has been a big dark horse. Huge, yeah. Um, it just got a huge shout-out from Julia Roberts. People thinking that that's gonna lead people to watch it.
SPEAKER_02:It is going to lead people to watch it's a little about it.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely is, and absolutely if they find it, if they can find it, and even then, um, like you said, there's a lot of newbies on this list. Yes, I don't know that there's room for sorry, baby, which I think is very much an independent film, an American independent film from a writer that is not as uh established as the Safety brothers, as Jafar Panahi, as um Ryan Kugler. And so, in terms of, you know, let's call it quote unquote, you know, newbie potential, I feel these other quote unquote newbies um have laid more groundwork, so their nomination makes a little bit more sense. I would say Sorry Baby would stand a better chance if it wasn't the film's only nomination, right? You know, and it stands to be the film's only nomination, right? And you have all these other contenders that stand to show up somewhere else, at least somewhere else.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I think for me, what I don't like is that A24 already has a really solid contender in Marty Supreme. That's right. But I do think that Sorry Baby is a huge dark horse in the sense that we don't have too many female writers this year in screenplay altogether, and certainly not in original, and that means that that contender is going to pop, especially Well, we do have Chloe Zhao and Hamlet. You have exactly one out of ten, essentially, and you have none in the original screenplay category, and it's not impossible, it's just not very common. Um, and like I said, I do think it'll make the film stick out, and I think the personal nature of the film is also going to stick out. Um, and then the other thing I'll say is you know, it it's been pretty beloved on like the independent film track. Um and it this company, uh Pastel, that's behind this film as well, um, they were able to get that surprise nomination for um Paul Meskell in After Sun for what was uh a year low with best actor contenders. And sh and of course that film had great support from BAFTA um that enabled that nomination. But I do wonder, you know, with this sort of um lean list, if there isn't enough favor for this film among the independent community, and if you know Pastel just doesn't um have enough fans within the industry to possibly sneak out with that nomination.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I will say with that example that you just said, um the difference that I see is that we were all struggling for someone to complete the actor list because we had very bad options, and Paul Masco is right there in the most critically acclaimed film of the year, which I I I personally think is a masterpiece. Um and this that's not the case here because, like I said, there there are there are three three films, three or four films even that uh comfortably would fit here um and have to battle, you know, for those that last spot. Um so I think it's uber competitive. Um I will say that the film that I'm most attracted to for that last spot, and a film that I think nearly not nearly enough people are paying attention to is Blue Moon. Um, I think Blue Moon will get that last spot for screenplay. Richard Linkladder um is a welcome presence in screenplay categories, in the screenplay category. I think writers respect him, admire him. I think it is true that Blue Moon is uh somewhat static, it takes place in one place, you know, uh, but it's very wordy. There's a lot of dialogue, there's a lot of characterization uh for the central figure. Um, and I think there's a lot of meticulous detail in terms of period and era. Oh yeah. Um, and so the familiarity of someone like Richard Linkladder um and what that film is about, you know, um as a as a as someone that was uh in the entertainment business, Lawrence Hart. Right. Um, you know, I think all those things are going to make it an attractive option. Um, and like you said, you know, this list of all newbies, minus uh sentimental value, the writer um trier and eschio vocht, um makes it welcome to have someone like Richard Linkladder in there. Um I like that it kick that's a companion piece to a to a big uh starry role for Ethan Haag. And let's not forget, and and you were mentioning mentioning this to me the other day, this screenplay, the screenplay categories have tended to be very fond and very uh very fond of Ethan Hawk, who does really well in these categories. In fact, he's been nominated as a writer twice. Yeah. Um uh and uh first reform, we got a screenplay nomination here, um, at Boyhood as well, another Richard Linkladder. I think they like Richard Linkladder with Ethan Hawk. Yeah. Um, and I think uh writers respect not just Ethan Hawk as a as an actor but as a writer as well.
SPEAKER_02:I think it's kind of fascinating what you're saying. Um, undoubtedly, I think writers have an affinity for the films of Richard Lenkladder. Um, he had two great films this year. Um, and I absolutely agree that people often overlook that Ethan Hawke to a certain degree can be described as a writer's actor. Um, you know, I'm sure I think he's as embraced by writers as as he is by actors, even if he'll call himself an actor first. Um, but I think you're pointing out to what could potentially be um an Achilles heel for Blue Moon, um, or possibly, you know, uh maybe one reason why it can sneak in, which is the script is not written by Richard Linkladder. It's written by Robert Kaplaw, right? And he's not uh a well-known screenwriter, he's not you know a well-established screenwriter, he's actually um a novelist um and uh a teacher, and he was responsible for writing the book Me and Orson Wells, um, which uh Richard Linkladder made a film from uh later. Um, so I do think you're right. Writers do flock to the cinema of Richard Linkladder, they do enjoy Ethan Hawk. Um, will they hold it against this film, the script, that Robert Kaplow is not necessarily a screenwriter by trade, you know, strictly speaking.
SPEAKER_01:Um did we see that recently with Living? Yeah, they jumped at the opportunity to give him a nomination. In fact, sometimes when you have a career, you know, outside of screenwriting, but you're a writer, you know, with notable work, it's uh entices writers to want to mention you nominate you.
SPEAKER_02:I think it's a great point, but I think it happens a little bit more in adapted. So Kazoo Ishiguru, um, when he gets an honor for a living, I think a lot of that has to do with the admiration they have for Kazoo, but also the idea that Kazoo's work has been, you know, the foundation for so many great movies, right? Remains of the Day, for example. And Nick Hordenby is another great example, right? Um, where he's also a novelist, but he uh adapted uh an education and was able to get a nomination for that. Um, and so I I do think that is it gonna maybe work against uh Robert in the sense that it's original screenplay not adapted? Possibly, possibly. And it's not like you know, he's you know, he's not kazoo, you know, this uh extraordinarily extraordinarily acclaimed um and and uh celebrated uh author, even though um he's certainly you know um accomplished. So I do wonder if that could be a factor.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I think um I think what I'm trying to get at is that I think Richard Linkladder is a writer's director, and also we can't ignore that even though he's known as a director and a writer, you know, most of his nominations I think are for writing. Um and I think that's no coincidence. You know, I think writers really respond to his films. Um and uh like we said, I think Ethan Hawk is a good luck charm in these screenplay categories.
SPEAKER_02:No, I think it's I think you're right about that. And I think if there is a Richard Lenkladder film, I'm very confident that most writers will seek it out, even if he didn't write it. Right. Because they understand that he has a special um respect for um the role that the screenplay plays in the film. And I think you're right about Ethan Hawk as well. And I think it's also kind of interesting that um they have some success, like they've had success, both Richard and Ethan, with Sony Classics, right? Um with their most recent or one of their most recent collaboration on the script before midnight, making it in here. Um so I I get that you know, um Blue Moon is a very tempting choice. I think the other thing that's making that makes it really tempting is when you look at the five movies we're talking about for adapted and the movies that we're talking about right now for original, there isn't a whole hell of a lot of like real life figures, as you and I, as you and I like to say. And more often than not, those films do figure here. Yeah, you know, um, I remember a movie like um King Richard, for example. It figured into this, into into one of these screenplay races. Right. Um, and I think that that's possibly a a huge um advantage that this film has.
SPEAKER_01:So if we were to include one of these films, and right now I think that we've discussed it a lot. And we are leaning towards Blue Moon. Um, the question is of the five favorites, which one are we taking out? It was just an accent or the secret agent. And I want to say that the secret agent has all the momentum regarding foreign film. You know, it's got a lot of eyes on it after the globes, uh, the surprise foreign film win. Jafar Banahi didn't even get on stage. Um, he also uh the film also didn't do well in terms of you know wins at the European Film Awards. Right. So it is true that the secret agent is uh is stealing some of the spotlight. That being said, I have a hard time seeing writers not take the opportunity to welcome Jafar Banahi into the screenplay categories. Um I think if you've seen Jafar Panahi's work, you know it's very precise, very specific, um, very thought out, very thoughtful. Um and uh I also like that it was just an accident, got nominated for the Golden Globe uh screenplay, which again I think is a very strong stat. That's the big one, I think. And it also won, I think, the LA film critics uh win, which I think is not as not a not an insignificant thing either.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um and I want to say that you know, uh the secret agent didn't get a Golden Globe nomination for screenplay.
SPEAKER_02:That's kind of the surprising thing, right? Because it ended up winning foreign films.
SPEAKER_01:Right, and and it got an I for Best Picture as well.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And um so I got I won I won two out of its three awards, but still didn't manage to get into screenplay. Yeah, meanwhile, it was just an accident did. Yeah. Um, and we're not saying that voters are um, you know, so extremely faithful to the golden globes, but we are saying that the golden globes, um, and we've said this in the past, you know, uh reflect a certain kind of mindset that I think echoes what a lot of members in the academy think as well. Um, there's a lot of overlap there. Um I I I I think that of the two, I think the secret agent is weaker, and in my opinion, and I'm a big fan of the secret agent, I love the film. You know, for me, it's more a film that I experience, you know, as a director's vehicle than I do as a rider's vehicle.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I think that makes sense. I think the one thing that keeps me from fully committing to the theory is just the idea of I feel very confident that given his stature in the uh international film community, Jafar will make it into Best Director. And I know that because it's a competitive field, it's gonna be a little bit harder for Kleber. And so in theory, you know, if one of them would have to miss out, one could argue that it would be a little nicer to see Kleber get an individual nomination. Um, and maybe that could be in screenplay because Jafar feels a little bit further ahead in director. Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um and so but but I also think that it could be um sort of compensation or or balance in that the uh the secret agent ends up winning foreign film and Kleber ends up being uh the recipient of the award. I know that it goes to the country, but I think the director is the one that receives the award. Meanwhile, Jafar Panahi might get nominated for director and writing and win neither.
SPEAKER_02:It could be, it could be. Um you know, I I think it's close. If if if we if we feel good about including Blue Moon, it's it's it's a little bit of a coin toss which one of the international titles uh drops off.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And so I think we're in agreement that we're going to uh bet on the Richard Link Ladder vehicle, Blue Moon, for original screenplay. So our final predictions are Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, it was just an accident, and Blue Moon. Okay, and now moving on to best supporting actor. Um, I think this field is really um it's sort of solid.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, among all four acting categories, I think this is the one where most people feel most comfortable and where we're least likely to see a surprise. That said, there are certainly a few contenders lurking. Yeah, a few contenders lurking, and one or two contenders that are a little weaker um than people give them credit for, but they're still certainly ahead.
SPEAKER_01:Well, let's start with Stan Skarsgård, who just won the Golden Globe. We have from the very beginning, at least I have always thought that he is the front runner in this category. He very surprisingly did not get nominated for a SAG. Yeah. Despite he, despite being an actor that has worked in many American films.
SPEAKER_02:He's a SAG nominee already, yeah, including for like the I believe the cast are good while hunting. So yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and so it was very surprising to see complete omission of sentimental value. We'll get into that a little bit as we keep talking about the acting categories.
SPEAKER_02:So he's a globe winner, but a sag snubby, which is um has happened before, but he looks like he's locked in, but that win may prove a little complicated.
SPEAKER_01:Um correct, even though we have seen uh contenders knock an eye for the sag and still manage to pull off the win. It depends on who wins that sag, right? And what their speech is exactly that's true. Um, that's a good point. Um, uh, so I feel very confident about Stylin Scarsgard. I'd be very surprised he just won the European Film Award for Best Actor. Maybe, um, like I said, he has never been nominated. This is a legendary actor, among the most uh pivotal, among the biggest among the biggest uh uh acting figures from Sweden, um, who's had a humongous career. Um, I believe he's in his 70s. Um, he's been working for an immense amount of time and has never received this recognition. I feel he is absolutely going to be receiving it this year for one of his best performances in Sentimental Value. And I still feel like he's the front runner. Um who's next? So who's next? I think uh we all feel pretty comfortable uh with Benito Dotoro and Sean Penn making it from one battle to another.
SPEAKER_02:Um usually you'll see if um a pair of performances get in together at the sag, then they're usually destined to repeat that at the Oscars. 100%. That was their biggest challenge, and they were able to pull it off. They both got a nomination. Right.
SPEAKER_01:I think people don't pay enough attention to that. That um if a uh pair of actors from the same film are going to get nominated at the Oscars, they should show up as a pair at the SAG. And if they don't, then I think that's a bad sign. It's a red flag. It's a red flag that it won't happen at the academy. I think not enough people talk about that. Um, and I think in terms of one battle after another, we're gonna be getting into it next. But I think that's something that's going highly against Regina Hall getting mentioned for one battle after another. Um uh even last year, Selena Gomez failed to get a nomination alongside Zoe Zaldania. Uh, that and the same in the Oscars. So the point is if it's gonna happen, it should happen there. One of the few exceptions is recently, one of the few recent exceptions is Jesse Plemens, who managed to get a nomination despite missing it at the SAG.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um but he's the exception. He's the exception. That being said, the SAGs, you know, paid him back this year, giving him his first SAG nomination, individual SAG nomination for Begonia for Bogonia, uh, which is something that you'll see the SAGs do if they if they omitted you and then you ended up getting an Oscar nomination. The next chance they have to kind of welcome you into the club, they'll take it. Yeah, it's a pattern. Um, and uh so I I I I feel pretty I feel that those are locks. Right. Um, I think Benito Toro is as as you've seen with the precursors, I think it's my favorite supporting performance of the year. Um, unfortunately, I don't think he can battle Stan Skarsgaard. Um his you know owedness, um, because Benito Toro has an Oscar. Um, that being said, it's sort of strange and borderline criminal that this will only be Benicio's third nomination uh after having so many uh memorable uh performances. Right. Um Champagne, this will be the first time he gets into the supporting category. That's interesting.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, and the first time I think he's back since winning for milk.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Um, so uh count on those three. It's the next two that have the opportunity, the possibility for a surprise. Right. Although people would say that it's unlikely, right? It's not impossible.
SPEAKER_02:Well, on the one end, you have Paul Maskell who's ahead in the sense that he's in a surefire best picture nominee. Um, his co-star is the favorite to win best actress, they just won the Golden Globe. Um, very unlikely that that's going to change. Um, but as we talked about, there's a pattern within the academy and within the larger award season structure where you know the timing isn't always well adjusted for every contender. And so often sometimes you'll see um an actor who gets celebrated a little bit earlier in one award show and a little bit later in another one. And so Paul Maskell hasn't really missed anything significant. He's a Golden Globe nominee, he's a SAG nominee for this, um, he's a critic's choice nominee, and he will be a BAFT nominee. The question really is are voters going to care that he's already an Oscar nominee, right? Um, and someone in a very similar situation this year is Jesse Plemens from Bugonia, who's who's done pretty solid as well. Um but when he's he's uh the sole nominee from After Sun a few years ago in 2022 in the lead actor category. Um it wasn't a nomination that needed to happen. It was absolutely not a nominate a nomination that needed to happen. It's a nomination that occurred because it was the um the best uh contender, the contender with the most passion, with in what was a very extraordinarily thin field that provided no um previous nominee within that race. Which is a rarity, which is a rarity, a huge rarity. And so he was the the beneficiary of that. But voters are aware that he has um a nomination, a nomination by himself, which is also a major thing, and um a nomination uh in the lead actor category, which is a major thing. And so the question is do they go ahead and give him a second nomination three years later? Yeah. Um, or do they say, you know, I'm gonna take advantage and give this spot to someone who's been overlooked in the past or who has a new opportunity to stand out? And it kind of reminds me a little bit of uh Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson, who did not get a Golden Globe nomination, and he was able to squeak out a SAG nomination for Half Nelson, and he was able to get uh an what now seems like an unlikely nomination for best actor for a really tiny film um in Half Nelson that I think is even uh one of the few films from IFC to ever get nominated in that category. Um, and so what happens is that the following year he he basically hits everything he has to in Large and the Real Girl, being a SAG nominee for the first time, um a Golden Globe nominee in the comedy musical section. Um it it was a very uh celebrated role. It was very different from Half Nelson. Nonetheless, the Academy sort of chooses to not nominate him and instead nominate someone like uh surprise Tom Lee Jones for In the Valley of a Law because they kind of know that they they just nominated him. Now, these this is not a back-to-back nomination for Paul Meskell, but at the same time, Ryan Gosling has to wait how many years between first and second nominations? What 2006, 2016, a decade. Yeah, and we're talking about three years for Paul Mesko. Um, yes, his film is finally a favorite, and that could help, and that may be the difference maker, but I think voters also know that we're in for a lot of Paul Mesko films in the future, including what is likely going to be a very um uh sought after, not sought after, but a very um anticipated role as Paul McCartney in the Sam Mendys films about the Beatles. Yeah, and so is that going to end up kicking him out of the lineup?
SPEAKER_01:I a hundred percent agree with you. Um, if he hadn't got an eye for Afterson, this is a no-brainer. Oh, yeah. The same way that we knew a mile away that he was gonna get nominated for that SAG because he's never been a SAG nominee. Right. And this is the opportunity. It's been easy up till now. It's been easy up till now. However, voters are gonna have to assess it's too soon to give Paul Mesko another nomination.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, I always go back, and and we've talked about this several time on uh several times on the show. Voters are paying attention to how many nominations an actor is getting, right? How how recently they were nominated, um, how back-to-back nominations are. Sometimes it comes down to do I really like that actor? Coleman Domingo recently did it. He's obviously an actor that they really like. Um, that being said, it helps that it's a category shift. And we talk about category shifts in the acting races a lot. Um, it would be uh, I think less likely if he was going another lead. Yes. Um, I do think actors sort of look at lead and supporting differently. I think there's a little bit more of a barrier you need to pass to get into lead than supporting. Um, so it helps that it's a category shift. It helps that he's in the uh a surefire top three best pictures that just won the Golden Globe, and that Jesse Buckley is a surefire best actress winner. Um, however, I can't help but think when you look at other contenders who haven't had their moment and are in vehicles that possibly allow them to have a moment. I wonder if there are going to be any voters who are gonna say it's time to give it, it's it's time to give the moment to someone new. Yeah. You know, it's a little too soon for you, and you were just here, and you're gonna be here again. You don't need this nomination. Right. Who am I specifically thinking about? I'm thinking about someone like Daroy Lindo. Darroy Lindo is in his 70s. I believe he's 75, 76. He's been acting for a long time. He's a veteran. Um, he's been in uh best picture nominee uh for the Silo House rules. Actors are aware of him. He's where he's been working for a very long time. He had his moment almost in the Five Bloods, right? Being a critic's favorite, but ultimately missing the Academy Award nomination. Um that film underperformed overall. And so here he is, Delroy Lindo, in a surefire best picture uh contender in a film that is uh destined to get several nominations. And while he does not have as showy a role as he had in Defy Bloods, um I will say that I can't help but think that there are voters who know Delroy Lindo has never been nominated, right? He's never been mentioned. And so am I gonna feel easy giving as an actor? Do I feel that it's justified or is it easy for me to give a second nomination to Paul Meskell as a sporting actor before even giving giving Delroy Lindo one? Right. Um, that's something that I that really, you know, I I I I think about. You know, it could right?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I think that you're absolutely right. I think to add to the issue though, I would say, I mean, what are your thoughts on the idea that despite everything you've said, it was not Delroy Lindo who ended up with the SAG nomination, it was actually Miles Caden.
SPEAKER_01:I want exactly that was my next point. Um it's both good and bad. It's bad in the sense that, okay, well, it's good in the sense that despite everything, the SAG committee still found room to nominate someone from Centers. They didn't have to pick another actor from Cinners. Um, they could have gone a million other ways. Cinners is a film they were watching, Cinners is a film they liked, Cinners is a big ensemble, Centers has a lot of um, you know, uh performances that shine. And so to me, a nomination for Miles Caden at SAG showed that there was space for someone from Cinners in this category. Um, that being said, you know, someone big was snobbed, Stalin Scargoard. Right. Um I think it's bad in the sense that the SAG had the opportunity to make that Darroy Lindo and instead chose to give it to Miles Caden, which on paper makes sense. Why? Because Miles Caden has the better part. Yeah, um the bigger part, has the better part, has the bigger part. Um, I think that's something that unfortunately Darroy Lindo is going against him in that he's good. Um, the entire cast is good, but he's not the brightest spot in the movie. In fact, you know, that goes to Woodmee. And then possibly other people would put uh Michael B. Jordan and Mouse Caton before they put Darwin Lindo.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um so I think it's bad in the sense that they had the opportunity, and again, he was not nominated for Defy Bloods individually at the SAG, and they still chose someone else. Um, that could spell trouble for him for Darwin Lindo in the sense that there's just no room because even if they had room for someone from Cinners, he's not top choice.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, I think that's a problem. But I think as we're talking about Darwin Lindo, I want to mention briefly someone else that I think um is not going to get nominated, but I can't help but think about them because they were on their way to possibly getting spotlighted.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:They're going to be they're going to miss again. They just not the right time. But this actor has gone through this song and dance several times.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and that's Adam Sandler, who uh missed uh most recently for what many considered to be a career-defining performance in Uncut Gyms. Here we are with the Safties, and they're finally getting on for a best picture. Adam Sandler still is on the outs and he has a vehicle. He's great in Jay Kelly, it just hasn't materialized. It makes sense why he didn't get the SAG nomination because he already got it for Hustle when he didn't need to in 2022. Unfortunately, had he not gotten that nomination, he might have been on it for Jay Kelly here, right? And that would be it would be a different story.
SPEAKER_02:The timing again.
SPEAKER_01:Jay Kelly is uh not a it doesn't look like it's destined to do to get any nominations, right? Um, and so unfortunately he would go the way of Jay Kelly and and and also do poorly. Right. But I can't help but think when I've when I think of someone like Darwin Lindo, who's in his 70s and hasn't been able to have a moment and has sinners, and then someone like uh Adam Sandler, who's going to miss again, right? You know, um, and Paul Mesco is getting his second nomination, you know, with you know a less than three year span, you know, it sounds it sounds odd.
SPEAKER_02:I love that you brought that up because I do think that that it does sound odd. And I think one question we have, and it may show up in our predictions, but I think it's something that we're definitely gonna be looking out for. And we suggest that you look out for it to listeners, is just the idea how much awareness are voters gonna have? Are they gonna bring that awareness that that's right, I've never nominated Denroy Lindo, and here he is in his second best picture movie. He has the scenes, he has the lines, he has the moments. Am I gonna go ahead and do that? Same thing. Are they gonna are they gonna remember? You know what? How funny is it that um Paul Thomas Anderson is potentially gonna win best director, and the Safty brother, uh Josh Safty is finally um gonna break into um the Oscars for the Safty name. And here's Adam, and he's delivering what is a very lovable performance, um, and a very lovable, you know, a character that resonates with people in the industry, and he has a sh uh a chance to be nominated. Um, are they gonna be aware of that? Um so I do wonder, and that and I want to say that that's gonna apply to so many races, um, including supporting actors, which we'll talk we'll talk about next. But that's what we're gonna be looking for. Um, and I think everything you've said brings us to our final contender, um, which, you know, to Bridget to Adam Sandler is what has become the defect the de facto Netflix contender in this category, which is Jacob Alordi.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And I think that talking about Paul Meskell, I put Jacob Alordy in a similar boat, in the sense that unlike Paul Mesko, this would be his first nomination. But to me, it still feels odd to give Jacob Alordi his first nomination in the acting categories before giving Delroy Lindo one nomination. Right. And again, Sinners is right there, right? And it's probably going to be the most nominated film. You know, and again, even someone like Adam Sanders. Who is three decades into his career and has yet to be spotlighted, most likely will not be spotlighted, but Jacob Alordi is going to get his first nomination. It's odd to me. You know, um, I think there's a lot of things that are going for Jacob Alordi. Um, the fact that he's on in Frankenstein, he won the critic's choice. Yeah, you know, um, there's only been like once or twice where a critic's choice winner did not get nominated for best supporting actor. Um, also, uh, there's a trend, a pattern that we've talked about that if there's a Netflix film that is going to be nominated for Best Picture, it at least has to show up to some degree in the acting categories. I believe we talked about that.
SPEAKER_02:I think we said the idea that it when Netflix gets two films in for Best Picture, they cannot be both of them fall short of acting nominations. And so what we've talked about it. It means a world exists where Joel Edgerton gets in for lead actor and Jacob Ballorty gets in for supporting actor, or where one of them gets in, but a world does not exist where neither of them get in, but Frankenstein and Train Dreams can still survive into Best Picture. Right. Exactly. And so Because Jacob, I think, is the critic's choice winner in what is undoubtedly the top five movie in Frankenstein. You would imagine that he edges out Joel as the the most likely Netflix acting nomination to happen.
SPEAKER_01:And also consider that Best Actor is highly competitive, that Joel Edger 10 is gonna have a hard time sneaking in there to begin with, unless someone major gets snobbed, which I think can happen, by the way. It can still happen. Um, it makes sense for Jacob Alorti to be the stand-in, you know, Netflix acting nominee. So I get that, but I I wonder if voters will think, you know, if it makes sense to give Jacob Alorty his first nomination as an actor before someone like Darroy Lindo. Right. And I also want to say that I think Jacob Alorty is building a respectable filmography. Um, I think uh yeah, I think that that's something that is going for him, but I also want to say that I don't think he's an actor yet that is, you know, um on the academy's list of actors I'm paying most attention to. Right. I do think that many actors probably know of him most from Euphoria. I think there's a reason why no one from Euphoria has gotten to this level and been nominated, despite some efforts by Zo uh by uh Zendaya was in a couple vehicles, I believe. Sydney Sweeney tried it this year. Well, he did the smart move and went supporting their full makeup. Right. I'm gonna get to that. Um uh so I think most voters know him for that. And I don't think that's synonymous with, oh, that's an actor that I'm really, you know, uh in love with. Right. You know, I don't think euphoria is that for voters. Um, I think Jacob Alorty, Jacob Alordi is Jacob Alorty is terrific in Priscilla. Uh it's one of, I thought his, I think it's his best performance. And um I think if voters saw that film, I think they'd be impressed and they would have seen that he has the talent to do really good, uh, profound work. Um, I don't know how many voters saw Priscilla. Right. You know, um, so I think a lot of voters are going with Frankenstein being kind of the revelation of, oh, I think this is, you know, I you you can do more than I thought you could do. Right. Um, which I'm not saying won't work for him in the end. Um, but I am saying that I wonder if some voters are going to think, I want to see more first. Right. I want to see more first before I give you the acting nomination. That being said, I want to say, and we've talked about it, supporting is easier to break into than lead.
SPEAKER_00:Yes.
SPEAKER_01:So if there is a if there's an opportune category to try to break into for someone like Jacob Alordi, it is the supporting actor category. Right. Even though it's debatable if he's supporting or co-lead in that film. Right. Um I also think it immensely helps that it's a performance that is um separate from you know good looks and an attractive uh young man that he is, um, because there's a he's caked in makeup, he's playing a monster. Right. It reminds me in a way a lot, a lot of Brad Pitt, who managed to get his first nomination by playing, let's call it ugly uh in 12 Monkeys. I'd say Looney, he's still a very attractive associate, Matt. Right. But I think I think you know he really was able to shed some of his, you know, uh beauty uh to play that part. And I think they kind of welcomed him in. But again, he went into supporting, right? Um, and again, it helped that he wasn't, you know, gorgeous Brad Pitt. Right.
SPEAKER_02:And it was not a best picture nominee, by the way.
SPEAKER_01:Exactly. Uh even more so. So I think all those things are really going for Jacob Alorty. Yeah. And at least unlike Paul Mesko, it would be his first nomination and not his second. But it does still feel odd. It does still feel odd for people like Paul Mesko and Jacob Alori to be getting their nominations, and Darwin Lindell has gotten Diddly Squat. Yeah. And Adam Sandler has got in Diddly Squat.
SPEAKER_02:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Right?
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I agree with you. It does feel odd. I mean, does the reality exist where either of those actors, um, Demor Lindle and Adam Sandler, can get in over the younger guys? It does, but it's not the reality we're living in just yet. Yeah, it could happen, though.
SPEAKER_01:It could happen. Right now, I think it's unlikely. I mean, uh uh, one last idea. But you also mentioned to me the other day that it's kind of a weird category to see both Paul Mescal and Jacob Alordy. Yeah. You know, that's the way they're both lining up now. They're both young, young actors, they're both attractive young actors. You know, uh, in Jacob Alordi's case, you know, I've mentioned this to Joseph before. I do think there's a bias for, you know, really attractive young men. Bias against. Against, yeah, a bias against. Um, you know, I think Leo DiCaprio is able to get in, you know, as a child, you know, for what's eating Gilbert grape again and supporting.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, but he's not able to get into Titanic, right? Get in for Titanic because I think there is a bias against really attractive heartthrobs.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and Jacob Ballorty is that, you know, uh, very much so. So I can't help but wonder if there's going to be some voters that that's going to be an obstacle for them.
SPEAKER_02:You know what else I think is interesting is just this idea, and it happens all the time. You can just ask, you know, K John Abalf, there's something about both these guys being perfect right now. And Jacob has the win, but he got the critic's choice. You got the golden globe, the sag, he'll likely get the BAFTA. And Paul Mesco was likely to get all four. Also, that to me is kind of risky. Sometimes it's a little bit safer to have gotten overlooked in one of the awards ceremonies so that it pushes you up on people's ballots, like, oh man, Stan Scarsgard didn't get nominated. I have to put him on number one, whatever. There's something I think a little bit unsafe sometimes about being perfect. Um, and so watch for that to maybe rear its head in this category.
SPEAKER_01:And I also want to bring up another point in that Paul Mesko is both is Paul Mesko is playing William Shakespeare.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:I think this, as we've mentioned before, the acting categories should make room for at least one actor that's playing a real life figure. And so in this particular case, it's uh William Shakespeare. That being said, William Shakespeare has had really bad luck with the Academy. Yeah. You know, there have been very few, um, no actors possibly have been nominated for playing William Shakespeare. I have to look. I mean, I have to see if maybe someone despite having the opportunity to Shakespeare and Love.
SPEAKER_02:Yes, and they certainly could have given the nomination to uh Joseph Vines, who I think was perfect again. Um, but they decided not to. Um, and that year he had two movies, um, because he was in on that and on Elizabeth, and who knows if that you know played a factor into the snub. But I do think that there may be a little bit of a Shakespeare curse here. And I I will say, like, if you're an actor and and Shakespeare plays such an a big part in whatever in in in with any actor's life, um, I do wonder if you sort of think, you know, he's not, you know, he's not maybe the Shakespeare that you learned about in school, if that makes sense.
SPEAKER_01:Who? Paul Muskel. Oh, okay. I mean, I was also gonna say that there's an aspect to being Shakespeare and you know, uh performing Shakespearean, you know, iconic, you know, sonnets, you know, and and Hamlet on stage in a way that's being done in Hamnet, right? You know, that I think might be attractive for some actors. You know, possibly. I also think that in terms of what I was mentioning about hearthrobs, Paul Mesko is more in the zygist now than he was when he got nominated for After Sun.
SPEAKER_02:Don't you think maybe I guess another maybe for me.
SPEAKER_01:You don't think so?
SPEAKER_02:I don't know. That's that's a maybe for me. Um, I do think he's older, I think a little bit older than Jacob, which helps.
SPEAKER_01:I think they're similar of similar age.
SPEAKER_02:I'd have to be like a little bit older. Um, but there's just something about like it's something something to me reads like the curse of Shakespeare will be broken when there's a performance that's so committed, so um invisible that you can't even see the actor. All you see, all you see is Shakespeare, and that is the best picture movie um about the life of Shakespeare. And because that does not exist yet in the Academy Awards, that's why I wonder again if there's a little bit of a weak spot for Paul.
SPEAKER_01:Jacob Alordy and Paul Maskell are one age difference. Wow. Paul Maskell looks old. One age difference. Paul Meskell looks old. Uh Jacob Alordi was born in 1997, and Paul Maskell was born in 1996.
SPEAKER_00:Wow. But again, I feel like that adds to the weirdness of the list. Yeah. You know, of having two When was Miles Caden born?
SPEAKER_02:Chapter Michael.
SPEAKER_00:But you know what I'm saying? Like it's almost like they both do too much of the same thing. Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:You know, where I can't help but feel that something about this supporting actor list is off.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And that we're going to see either Jacob Alordy or Paul Mesko lose the nomination. Um I don't know who it'll be yet, and maybe I'm wrong, and and and it won't be either. I know it's gonna sound really hyper hypo hypocritical, but we're going to be predicting both. Yeah. I have good odds on Paul Mesko. I can't believe it.
SPEAKER_02:If you were pressed on one of them missing, if I forced you to have one of them miss, who would you pick? I want to know if it's the same one that I would pick.
SPEAKER_01:It's really tough. It's a toss-up. It's a toss-up. Uh-huh. Um, you know. I'm gonna say I don't love that Jacob Alordi is starring in Wuthering Heights. Uh-huh. And I don't love that Wuthering Heights is being, you know, it's from being promoted right now. I think it just adds to this context. Uh-huh. You're a heartthrob, you're a good-looking guy. I need to see more before I consider you a serious actor.
SPEAKER_00:Uh-huh.
SPEAKER_01:And so I think in a way, Paul Mesko kind of lays low a little bit more. Um, and I I guess I would say I'm tempted to say that it would be Jacob Alordi, even though I don't think that makes sense because I want someone from Netflix getting into the acting categories.
SPEAKER_02:Um, well, you could always snub him for Adam, technically. To me, so we would pick different guys. To me, Paul Meskell. I would pick Paul Maskell. And I think watch out if that does happen, that the larger narrative isn't that, you know, the the performance that you champion the most from the DJ 5 are the exclusive performances that make it in in the movie. And by that I mean because Jesse Buckley, you know, for most critics and and industry professionals and maybe even fans of the film, but because Jesse Buckley's performance is much more ahead of Paul Mescals, and because Jacob Alori's performance is so much more ahead of Oscar Isaacs, and because Timothy Chalamet's performance is so much more ahead than his um his scene partners, um that all those performances may just be the film's sole acting nomination. I I would watch out for that.
SPEAKER_01:That's what I would watch out for. Interesting. Well, right now those are the favorites, and we're going to be predicting uh Stan Skarsgard for Sentimental Value, Benicio del Toro for one battle after another, Sean Penn for one battle after another, Paul Meskell for Hamnet, and Jacob Alordi for Frankenstein. But watch out for a surprise snub here, and someone like Darroy Lindahl for Sinners gets his due in the spotlight.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. Could happen.
SPEAKER_01:Okay, and now moving on to our next category. Our next acting category is best supporting actress. Um, I do think that they're, in my mind at least, I think there are three contenders that I think are very safe. I'd have a hard time seeing them miss. Right. Um, I believe those are Tayana Taylor for one battle after another, the Lord and Globe winner. Right. Amy Madigan for weapons, the crazy choice winner. Perfect thus far. And Woo Mi Mosaku, who benefits from being in the one of the biggest, may possibly the biggest best picture uh film in terms of nominations. Agreed.
SPEAKER_02:Um she has that globe snub, but I think that that's not surprising considering that they don't know they don't know very much about her. Right. Um, but uh when you look at her career, uh she's been working for a long time.
SPEAKER_01:She's already a BAFTA nominee. She's already a BAFTA nominee. She made the BAFTA long list, she stands to get nominated at the BAFTA, she got the SAG nomination.
SPEAKER_02:And that Ryan Kugler has had success um bringing actors into um the actor categories at the Oscars, um, especially after SAG nominations, um, and that Sinners stands to be a very um tough movie to beat for that SAG ensemble. I think Woon Me is probably the most reliable acting performance for Sinners. So I I agree with you. She's she's in third.
SPEAKER_01:Personally, I think that Woon Mi Mosaku is the best performance in Sinners. I agree. Um, so I'm very happy to see her be mentioned here. We've had faith in her from the very beginning. And she could still win this, by the way. I do watch for the sags. Watch for her to pull off possibly a surprising sag win. And if she does, she can beat Tayana Taylor and Amy Madigan for the Austin. Absolutely. 100%. However, she just needs to she needs to win that sag.
SPEAKER_02:Funnily enough, um, this is uh three Warner Brothers girls, and if it does happen, we already know that statistically it was extremely unlikely. Warner Brothers has never really pulled off um three acting nominees from three different films in the same category.
SPEAKER_01:And it's actually been rare when they've pulled off two from the same.
SPEAKER_02:And so they're looking to make a little bit of history here with these three.
SPEAKER_01:And it's no coincidence that they're two, the three very big Warner Brothers films. You know, um, obviously One Battle and Sinners are going to be the biggest films of the year. Yeah. But also Weapons, while it may not get many nominations, was a huge film for Warner Brothers. It got the PGA nomination, and there's still a chance that it can get an eye for the best pick for Best Picture. I doubt it, but there's still a chance.
SPEAKER_02:And I think that she's safe. But if there is maybe a weak person on the poll, it could potentially be Amy Madigan.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um, I do expect her to be the lone nominee for her film. That puts her in vulnerable uh territory. That being said, Amy Madigan benefits extremely, not from being the most winning supporting actress this year. That doesn't matter what critics' groups think or whatnot, but she benefits extremely because this list needs a veteran. Yeah. Um, and her competition in that regard is just not as strong as she is.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:You know, Arianna Grande was nominated just last year for Wicked. It's very unlikely for actors to get back-to-back nomination. It happens very selectively. Add to that that Ariana Grande is just beginning her career as an actor. Add to that that she's playing the exact same part that she was nominated for in the first place last year. All those things are um go against her favor. Uh Gwyneth Paltrow was uh was someone to look for in Marty Supreme, but I just think that her part is not meaty enough. Um, not like uh her counterpart, Odessa, um, who I think has a better part. Uh Glenn Close was in a Wake Up Dead Man, was in a Knives Out film that typically doesn't get spotlighted for uh acting. Emily Blunt was probably the best option because she's also a real life figure. And a globe domine now. And she got on for the Golden Globe. However, because the Smashing Machine didn't materialize, um, it's also not the best option.
SPEAKER_02:Hard to imagine her getting in.
SPEAKER_01:Had the Smashing Machine been more successful, she could have won this category. Yeah. Because she's an actor that actors respect. This would be her second nomination. She's playing a real life figure. She could have won this.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, but it never materialized. Emily Watson um has a few scenes in Hamnet. I think she's quite effective. I do think she's gonna get the BAFTA nomination. We'll see. Um, but I don't think that there's a lot of buzz about her, and I think some of the other contenders I think are gonna call the attention of voters a little bit more. So, in general, I think Amy Madigan had the benefit of going against for that veteran spot, not a lot of really um uh enticing contenders. Right. And I think uh you and I picked up on that early on, and uh I think some people did as well. And I think before the precursor stuff was happening, you and I were saying that this was this felt like a race between Amy Madigan and Teano Taylor. Lo and behold, they were neck and neck for critics awards. Um, we'll see what happens there. The point is, I think those three are safe.
SPEAKER_02:So you have two open spots, and the sag would have you think that those spots are likely going to go to Ariana Grande for Wicked for Good, and Odessazyan for Marty Supreme. Ariana Grande up to this point has been perfect with nominations at the Critics' Choice, Golden Globe and SAG, but she is facing steep history with these back-to-back nominations, and she's also lost her scene partner because Cynthia Revo is a little bit significantly behind in the best actress race.
SPEAKER_01:I would say that Ariana Grande to begin with. I thought from the very beginning, you and I that it was going to be hard for Cynthia Revo and Ariana Grande to repeat nominations. Um that's a that's a difficult task in and of itself. Um, consider that they're they would be repeating nominations for playing the exact same part uh for part one. Yeah, I think that was heavily against their favor. I think it didn't help that wicket underperformed both box office-wise and certainly critically. But I want to say if Ariana Grande had had a better shot in supporting actress, she might have, but had to, in my mind, it always had to be with Cynthia Revo. Right. If Cynthia Revo was uh in the narrative of possibly winning Best Actress as a sort of culmination prize for both Wicked, I think this might be a different story.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And I also think that I'll I'll also say that there existed a scenario that did not occur, but it I do think it existed where um you could have given one nomination apiece to each actor for different iterations of the movies. So, like if Cynthia had managed the nomination last year without Ariana, again, rule of compensation, I could have seen Ariana getting in this year without Cynthia.
SPEAKER_01:Right.
SPEAKER_02:It's you know, that idea that they got in together complicates things.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And like we said, it's very difficult for actors to get back-to-back nominations in and of itself.
SPEAKER_02:Let alone uh, you know, when your credits are so minimal.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Um, so I think that was always a a a big task, a big hurdle to overcome. Odessa is an interesting case. Yes, because she came on really late. She came on late, she didn't get the globe nomination.
SPEAKER_02:But she got the SAG mention, she got the SAG mention, which I think was huge, very similar to what happened last year with Monica Barbo, except that Monica Barbo certainly benefited from Joan Baez. Yes, um, Odessa as young at the same time is, as far as we know, um the daughter of Pamela Adlon, who's a very respected actor, um, and the voice of Bobby Hill. Um so maybe that's an advantage, but I think something else that's going for her is just the idea that Timothy is the favorite for best actor, right?
SPEAKER_01:That's a huge thing that's going for her. Because if we look at history, at least, you know, let's look at since 2000, for example, there's a select group of actors who uh were nominated and would went would go on to win best. Actor, specifically, we're talking about best actor, um, who ended up being uh uh the only acting nomination for their films. And again, they won Best Actor, they didn't have a supporting uh player in play. Um, that being said, the majority of actors, leading men that win best actor, at least one of their supporting players tends to get nominated. Right. That's a stat that has held firm for quite a while. And in the event that we don't have that happen, for example, like Joker, you know, for example, like uh Daniel Plainview, you know, for example, like Last King of Scotland, when that doesn't happen, usually their supporting contenders also did not get nominated at SAG. Right. You know, they were they were they were the lone nominee, they were the lone acting nominee for their films throughout the campaign trail, especially at SAG.
SPEAKER_02:So Paul Dano, for example, was snubbed for There Will Be Blood at SAG, James McAvoy was snubbed um at I I think both the Globe, but certainly at the SAG for The Last King of Scotland. So you're saying that the idea that she got in there with Timothy Chalamet at all places at the SAG is probably really essential.
SPEAKER_01:It is essential, especially if we're considering that Timothy Chalamet is stands to win best actor, which right now looks very possible. I don't think it's set in stone. I think there's a narrative for someone like Ethan Hawke and someone like um Wagner Mora to sort of you know usurp that spotlight and attention. But as of now, it's the the light the it seems like Timothy Chalamet is going to win.
SPEAKER_02:Well, let me ask you a question, and I don't know if this complicates it or not. Um but I I can't remember if Felicity Jones was able to get that nomination for the Brutalist last year. At the SAG? At the SAG. She did not. She did not.
SPEAKER_00:No.
SPEAKER_02:And neither did Guy Pierce. No. And so Adrian Brody, and again, one of these performances that's you know very much an actor showcase, got gets in by himself.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, that's right.
SPEAKER_02:But but Felicity Jones and Guy Pierce still join him at the Oscars. Yeah. And so kind of the opposite of what we're saying with the Timothy Chalamet Odessa thing, and sort of like, um that's true. By that estimation, you might have thought that Guy Pierce and Felicity Jones might lose out the nominations at the Oscars, and the Oscar win goes to Timothy Chalamet because he was able to get Joan Baez and Monica Barbaro in at the Oscars and at the SAG. So I do think that it's it's a really strong theory, and I I personally subscribe to it as well. But there's that little bit of a caveat, right?
SPEAKER_01:No, I hear what you're saying. I don't know why I didn't think about the brutalist. Possibly we could amend the stat to uh include you know the major precursors. Right. So instead of it just being SAG, you know, uh Joker, There will be blood, Last King of Scotland, you know, uh they're supporting players, contenders never showed up at Globe, at SAG, at BAFTA. Right. So Felicity Jones and Guy Pierce, they do show up at the Globe and they do show up at BAFTA.
SPEAKER_02:I also think that the other way we can sort of add context to that is maybe Felicity Jones makes it in by the skin of her teeth because we needed that veteran, right? You know, and we we didn't have that, we didn't have a compelling case for that without her. Jamie Lee Curtis, but that's a Jamie, but again, since she was not ASO recently, and so maybe that's part of the caveat is that had Felicity Jones, had there been a more compelling veteran, a more compelling veteran, or had, for example, Jamie Lee Curtis been snubbed that year and for everything everywhere all at once, and she was 100%. Yeah, well then well, technically then she wouldn't be a veteran. But if we had a more compelling, if we had a more compelling veteran, then maybe Felicity would have been off that list.
SPEAKER_01:Possibly. Um, I think that's a really good point. Uh and don't get me wrong, I do think Odessa is a little bit new, a little bit young. Young, you know, in the in a way, this is sort of her first her breakout role. Yeah. And I will say that I do think she gives a very, a very good performance in Mario Supreme. And I think she's given a lot of meat. I think of all the supporting players, she has the best material to work with. That being said, I've always felt I think we've agreed, you know, that you know, everything is anchored around Timothy Shahame's character to such a degree that everyone almost in a way just doesn't have enough. Yeah. Because Timothy Shaame has so much. Yeah. Um that being said, clearly, you know, the SAG nomination implies that voters have a uh are responding to uh or or have the potential to respond to this performance. And it's it's not weird when you think about it because she's playing the kind of scrappy, you know, uh heroine in a way uh who wants to help this guy who really doesn't deserve her and really doesn't deserve her help. Right. And the amount the lengths that she would go to to see his well-being and happiness, even above her own.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:In a way, there's something endearing about that. And I think we've seen semblances of characters like that get spotlighted in the supporting category. So in a way, she makes perfect sense in this category for the kind of character that she's playing.
SPEAKER_02:No, don't you agree? I do agree that that that character does sort of fit into the like the historical context of this category.
SPEAKER_01:And I also want to say that I think it might not hurt that's you know, quote unquote, we it might not hurt the the Neppo of it all. Oh you know, I that that might be more of an asset than a burden. Potentially. Um, so we can't necessarily disregard that. So Odessa is someone huge to look out to break into this category. Um, that I think people were underestimating at the beginning. I think you and I did as well. Right. Um, someone that I have unfortunately I haven't liked to see how much steam she's lost is Al Fanning for sentimental value. Um, because in my mind, uh I have a hard time seeing I just have a hard time seeing it that Al Fanning is in a second consecutive best picture nominee who's gonna get multiple nominations. Um, and there's an opportunity in this very influx supporting actress race to spotlight her. Last year she got overlooked for Monica Barbaro, um, who I think wasn't as well known as Al Fanning was, even though she's older, but she wasn't as well known. Right. Um uh and they uh decided to not highlight Al Fanning, not give her a nomination. And here they are again with another opportunity to be able to spotlight her. She's been acting since she was a baby. Right. You know, we've seen her grow into an amazing actress. There is no doubt, I think, from most of us who watch films, who love films, that Al Fanning will be a very decorated actor. She's immensely talented and she's worked with several people in the industry. It's really, really hard for me to see a scenario where they have the uh ability to nominate Al Fanning again after the overlooking her completely for a complete unknown, and that they wouldn't take it. Right. Um, let's add to that that in this foreign film, which again has not just uh critical prestige, it has international prestige. It premiered at Cannes. It's been in people's uh minds since the Cannes. You know, it's uh it's among one of the most celebrated films of the year, full stop. And on top of that, she is playing an American in this international film. All her scenes are in English, you know, she's playing an actress, which again, they typically they like that. Um, if you don't like foreign films, she's American in this film and she's speaking English.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:You know, um, she doesn't have a lot of uh scenes, um, but the scenes that she has, she has a couple of uh emotional scenes. Right. Um, it's not like, you know, I'm really struggling here to find where the emotional scene is. Right. Um uh and uh, you know, it's it's it's a more adult part than we're used to seeing her in. Um uh again, she's playing an actress, Bear's repeating. Um, uh, and she's lovely in the film, you know, she's a bright spot in the film. Right. Um, and she's so different from the rest of the ensemble because she's this American, you know, trying to adopt this more mature role. All those things considered, it's really difficult for me to see that they would say, you know what, let's let's let's wait on Al Fanning. And instead, I'm going to nominate someone like Inga Ibsteter Lilius for Sentimental Value, who is also her co-star in Sentimental Value. When this might be the first time that they're becoming aware of Inga. I think Inga gives a very good performance in Sentimental Value. And I'm not surprised that certain people have attached more to her performance than Els, because I think her performance is more important to the story. Her, you know, her character is more important to the story. Right. I think one of the film's most beautiful pieces, which is that uh uh conversation between uh uh Inga and Renata towards the end of the film, she's a pivotal part of that piece. And so I get it. I get why uh voters would be more attracted or attached to Inga's performance, right? But I can't help but think that voters, given the choice of having to choose between the two, Inga or L, would say, I'm going to choose this actress that I'm just becoming aware of and sideline this other actress that I'm very well aware of. And I just did that last year.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:You know what I'm saying?
SPEAKER_02:I think we're skirting around um what is a really troubling aspect to this race, um, which is we have the two open spots. Um, we talked about Odessa, and now we've talked about the two sentimental value girls, but we need to contextualize this also around the idea that Sentimental Value scored a massive zero at the SAG awards. Right. Um and that it's very difficult for a film to go from zero SAG nominations to multiple acting nominations at the Oscars. A lot would have to go right. I'm not sure we found any sort of precedent in history for it. Um, you can go from you know, Adrian Brody and the Brutalist to from one to three, you can do that, and very often you can go from one to two, but to go from zero to potentially four is uh seems to me like a bridge that's very far. And even to go from zero to three um also seems, I think, not as likely as it once did. Um I will say there are two performances that are going to survive it. It is going to be the lead actor that we are all aware of from worst person in the world, and the Golden Globe winner who has had a career in Hollywood for upwards of 30 years. Um, so that it makes me wonder if a reality does exist where both these actors are on the chopping block. And to make matters worse, um Al Fanning did not make the Baptist and long list, which is pretty damning.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um at the same time, that they're they're both myths to sag. Um, I think the one thing that Al Fanning has that makes me second guess her ability to get in beyond her own um filmography and her success, is that she is she wasn't nominated by the Australian Academy, which is pretty good. Um where Ingo was not. Um, and so there's a conversation to be had here. Like, is there even a chance that Sentimental Value can even crack three? Um, or is it just going to be the central father-daughter relationship that voters are possibly most enthusiastic about to break into the race?
SPEAKER_01:Right. I think that's a good point. Um I will say that we went back and so far we've only been able to find instances where a film received zero sag nominations and still at least landed two. You know, for example, Roma did not get nominated for lead actors or supporting actors and still landed two. Uh what a coincidence that it's another foreign film. Yeah. Uh I think people talked about it when the sags came out. Uh they snubbed anybody that doesn't speak English, um, uh, except Alf Anning, who got doubly snubbed. Yeah. Um, but uh uh it doesn't happen. I we haven't been able to find an instance where a zero sag nominee uh nominated film all of a sudden lands three acting nominations, yeah, or or or four, even less four.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um back to what we were saying in supporting actor. If in supporting actress there wasn't a double up from a same film like Champagne and Benisi del Toro, and it didn't happen in the SAG because they both got snubbed, right? The likelihood of Inga and Elle both getting nominated is very, very, very unlikely. Yeah. Um we're we're we're already stretching it by saying that maybe if Elle had been nominated, maybe they make a move for Inga or vice versa. In this case, neither was nominated. Yeah. So the the the idea that both could get nominated is I think a far is far fetched.
SPEAKER_02:And then the other thing is, you know, if you like sentimental value, if you're a voter that was really attracted to it, you're gonna have an issue because you can only put one of them at the number one spot. And so if we, for example, assume that a lot of international voters um are fans of the film, given the results of the European Film Awards, you would have to imagine that maybe Inga has the edge there as the uh the actor, the international actor. Um at the same time, you could argue that more Americans will feel passionate about seeing Al Fanning finally nominated. So it's a really, really tough situation to sort of crack.
SPEAKER_01:And sentimental value is is is is is so tough to see what would happen there. Um, but like I said, if Al Fanning, if this was the first time that Al Fanning was contending, right? Right. Um, and uh uh a complete unknown hadn't just happened, I might be more willing to say, oh well, she just misses. You know, it's just not an opportune moment. But coming off a complete unknown, yeah, where they said, I don't really know Monica Barrow that much, but I'm going to nominate her instead of the actor that I'm more aware of because she has a better part.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And then do that again consecutively for another best picture nominee to me sounds almost like just like it's too much. Right. Right? Does it does it make a lot of sense?
SPEAKER_02:It does, it does read off. I think one other headline that we're gonna be talking about that I just want to mention this to Bridget to our conversation on supporting actor, is the idea of El Fanning, uh Odessa Zion, and some other contenders here. It's just a very young lineup of actors and best supporting actress. Yeah, um, El Fanny, not much older than either, or I'm sorry, maybe a little bit, I believe, younger.
SPEAKER_01:She's uh she's basically one or two years older than Odessa. Um, but Teana, I think, is like 35, I think.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, but I was in terms of the actors from Frankenstein and Hamnet, right? Um, I think they're all sort of in the same age group, which is again a little bit young for what the Academy does, especially in these older in in the categories for supporting, uh where actually these uh older character actors have an opportunity because they don't get the lead role. Exactly. Um, so that's kind of funny to see that happen. I think the other thing to me It raises an alarm.
SPEAKER_01:And I before uh I just want to mention really quick, I also think having a list where you include Al Fanning and Odessa is weird. Yeah, like I was saying in in Supporting Actor, how is it that Al Fanning is just now gonna get her first nomination after falling, you know, last year very, very, very uh, you know, in front of everybody because she was part of a best picture nominee and she was the only one to not get nominated, right? And Odessa, who I'm just becoming aware of, is gonna land her first nomination. Right. There's there's a discrepancy there that doesn't make sense.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I I I agree with that, and I wonder if it'll play a factor. And I think, you know, a lot like we mentioned for supporting actor, one of the things to watch out for is you know voter awareness. And so are voters gonna bring the awareness that Al Fanning has been, you know, working in the industry far longer than either Inca or Odessa. And I think that brings me to um the last contender that I still think um could possibly surprise here, and that's Regina Hall.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and the reason why is Regina Hall hasn't really scored very many um mentions, and certainly none of the significant ones, none of the televised ones. But as you heard Paul Thomas Anderson sort of um, you know, very shout out and and thank her very vocally at the Golden Globes, she's a really respected actor. Um, she gives a very surprising performance and a very memorable performance. Um, and I know that there's a lot of actors in the industry, um, not unlike Daryl Lindo, who admire everything that uh they've accomplished um and and like to see her work in in all kinds of films. Um and she's an actor that can do supporting parts and leaning parts and comedy and drama. And so, and and and let's not forget, she's a previous Academy Award host. Um, and so I do wonder if there's room here for a Regina Hall surprise.
SPEAKER_01:Um I mean, I think that you and I have been banging that drum from the beginning. You know, the minute that um Chase Infinity went lead, we said, well, this opens up a perfect opportunity for Regina Hall, who has the least amount of time between the three, her and Tayana and Chase. Right. Um, she has about eight minutes. And the biggest career between the two of them. She has the most credits between the two of them. Um, and so in a way, it's odd. Again, I use the word, but that's this is odd to have Chase Infinity, who is most likely gonna land a best actress nomination, and and and I and I totally see that happening. And Tayana, who's pretty much a sure thing, and yet the one with the more credits and the more years working in the industry, and she's in the movie, right? You know, in the best picture movie in the same movie you're watching, the same exact movie you're watching, um, she's the one that's gonna be left out. She's gonna be sidelined.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah, that's that's odd.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, it doesn't make sense. And then maybe if you told me, well, listen, this supporting actress category is stacked, right? You know, like I don't see how you can get across this wall or this one or that one. But this is a very influx category. We're talking about two sentimental value contenders that missed. We're talking about a re a repeat nomination for Ariana Grande. We're talking about Odessa, you know, having her first nomination and and and what might be the first time that you're recognizing her, you know, you're cognizant of her potential and her and of her and her abilities. Right. You know, we're talking about Gwyneth Paltra, who doesn't have enough meat, and Marie Supreme. Right. So this category has been all year long, we've talked about it, right? Has been a strange category where anything can happen.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And what's ended up happening is that someone like Amy Madigan in any other year where there would be a competitive supporting actress race would not even factor in. Wouldn't it we get booted out would be the first to get booted out because of the characters she's playing because of the movie she's in, she's a prime contender to possibly win the category.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:So this is such a strange category. And to think that Regina Hall can't crack it while being in the best picture winner, you know, and she's very good in the film, right? She's soulful, she's emotional. You know, I think all her scenes, she has this warmth, this grace, this strength. It just so happens that she has eight minutes.
SPEAKER_02:And I also think that don't you think there's like an interesting like symmetry going on here? Or how what kind of meaning can we get out of this? Because I feel like there's a consistency here. At the SAG, Darryl Lindo didn't get in, right? And he's you know, a super admired actor working for so many years, but he still couldn't get in for an individual sag nomination, even if he's in such a a big favorite, um, like centers. His younger co-star Miles Caton did, and he's much less known. Um, and you look at someone like Regina Hall in One Battle After Another, who couldn't score a nomination at the SAG either, again, despite having um the uh more established career, and her younger co stars uh did her her her co stars who are who have less credits, like Tayana and um Chase Infinity, not unlike Miles. So I kind of feel like if Delroy can surprise, Regina can surprise, and I can see them both surprising. And then here's an inconsistency. We can find room for Paul Mescal for him to finally get his first SAG nomination, I guess, and Jacob Bellordi to get his first SAG nomination. Maybe that's the difference. It's kind of hard to imagine that Al Fanning still hasn't landed there on the film side. The only thing I can think of is maybe they feel like she's been celebrated enough for TV and her TV work. Right. But I do feel like that's odd that the SAG is willing to nominate young actors like Chase and Miles and Tayana and Paul Mescal and Jacob Lordy, but they still left out Al Fanning. And so it's it's kind of hard for me to find a certain level of consistency there.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:So it's it's difficult.
SPEAKER_01:It's difficult to pin this category down. I wonder if that has anything to do with the fact that the SAG committee, I guess, is you know uh a little bit more, it's it's a different kind of award, it's a different kind of body than it was uh a few years ago. I think, you know, now influencers are can some influencers can be part of the SAG committee. I don't know if that has something to do with it. I don't know.
SPEAKER_02:That may play a factor. Um you know, the it's always interesting to see the results from the committee, but I do feel like there was uh a some surprising, surprising omissions.
SPEAKER_01:Um, so I I don't know that's just made this category category even harder. Yeah. Again, the Al Fanning completely snubbed from the BAFTA long list. You know, that's odd.
unknown:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:And they like sentimental value. Right. Yeah. That's odd. Even I guess the only thing I can sort of, you know, maybe chart it to is just that idea. And and I said it when I saw the movie that the movie writes a little bit more for Inga than it does for Al. At the same time, you know, sometimes a nomination is really just more about where you're at in your career. And we see that with Isabella Rosalini, for example.
SPEAKER_03:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and you know, Elle has done a lot of work to not have a nomination yet. And I feel like she's built a lot of bridges, you know, with the international community, for example. Um, so it's kind of hard to think that they're not going to be able to, you know, push her into this category.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Again, I think Al Fanning and Regina Hall mirror each other in a very fascinating way. Because, in a way, it's it's weird to see someone like Odessa get a nomination before Al Fanning, the same way that it's weird to see Tayana and Chase Infinity get nominations before uh Regina.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And and the same thing, Inga getting a nomination before Al Fanning.
SPEAKER_00:That's that doesn't make a lot of sense.
SPEAKER_02:No, I will say it's also interesting. Um, the Regina Hall nomination is the one that would be required um if you keep all the other sag nominations uh for individual actors for one battle in place. It would be the one that is required for it to break the record and get six acting nominations, which has never happened, which has never happened. Right. If they can repeat everyone from the sag, then they will tie with five. That's if they can do it. If they can keep that and add Regina, then they break the record. Right. Exactly.
SPEAKER_01:And I think that might be one reason that Regina falls short, you know, because unfortunately, if five are making it in, then one would have to break history, and maybe if and it's just not in the cards to break history. It's possible. Um, but El Fanning is a different story, right? You know, and then you had said, can we really go from zero in sentimental value at the sack to three? The only thing I can say is, yeah, you're right, that doesn't really happen. Um, but I can say that two has happened, yeah. You know, so uh I mean um Renata and Stelling can still happen. And let's and let's let's possibly posit the possibility that uh Al Fanning could maybe get into that supporting actress field and it goes from zero to three because technically she's the American in the piece, right? You know, she's in that foreign film that got completely snubbed, but she's the American in the foreign film who you know is is not it's the one non-foreign component of the film.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah. Um, so at the end, where does it look like we're leaning?
SPEAKER_01:This is a tough category for all the reasons we just mentioned, and in a way, like supporting actor, it's a little bit frustrating. Um, but I want to say that right now it seems like the list that makes sense to me is to not have Inga nominated before Al Fanning for the same movie, especially since you know uh Sentimental Value goes from it got zero at the sag, and that maybe Regina falls short because there's already five one battle performances that are going to be recognized, and so that leaves me with Al Fanning in Sentimental Value and Odessa as Ion for Marty Supreme, and uh Odessa benefiting from being the uh co the the the counterpart to what is very possibly the best actor winner. So the final five we're we're getting the final five we're predicting for best supporting actress are Amy Madigan for Weapons, Tayana Taylor for one battle after another, Woonmi Mosaku for Sinners, Al Fanning for Sentimental Value, and Odessa Azian for Marty Supreme.
SPEAKER_02:I just want to say a special mention here, which is I feel like if we get the result that I think is gonna end up happening, it's really important to remember the Oscar logic in terms of you know the road to the Oscars, isn't you know, it it it it doesn't always add up with the logic of the award season. Um there's really no reason, you know, in terms of precursors to include Regina Hall. But if Regina Hall gets in and they break the record, there's enough to suggest that again, they're watching the film and that through her career she's built just a level of respect and admiration among her peers that it's kind of irrelevant, um, that she does not have some of those bigger precursors who who, you know, lo and behold, they're not her peers. The Golden Globe voters are not her peers. Um, you can maybe argue the SAG voters, but as you said, that's a committee. That's a committee. But um when you have former Oscar nominees like um you know, Don Cheadle and Stanley K. Brown and uh Nicole Kidman and Melissa McCarthy, uh Queen Latifah, it's hard, it's very difficult to see Regina Hall missing. But that is not the award season math, but that is again Oscar Logic. Oscar logic, I think, would have dictated that Judy Dench is going to be nominated for Belfast before Katriana Bolf. Right. Um so I just want to say, and that's what happened. And so we'll see, we'll see what happens, but do not write it off.
SPEAKER_01:And uh was there any other contender you wanted to mention, like um Nina Haas?
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I think there's uh always an outside shot for for uh someone again with a career like Nina Haas and something really attention-calling because of the gender reversal. Um, but I do think that the strongest person to surprise with absolutely very little of anything is possibly Regina Hall. Yeah, I agree 100%.
SPEAKER_01:I think we're in for some surprises in these supporting categories. Yeah. We'll see if we're right.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Okay, and now moving on to the best actor category. I think of the four categories. I mean, we've we've kind of been, you know, kind of been uh talking, kind of in a way, writing dissertations about all these acting categories. Uh uh so in the best actor, I do think it's the most competitive where someone is is is worthy or someone that would make absolutely perfect sense to get nominated here is destined to be left out. No doubt, yeah. Because there just aren't six spots, there are five. And I really feel that there are seven contenders that people are uh talking about, but I really think that there are six. Right. Uh we'll talk about it. I think the people who are safe, um, I would say are Timothy Chalamet from Marty Supreme, he has all the momentum. Um Leonardo DiCaprio, who is in a best picture uh favorite winner, um, and he was snubbed for Kills of the Flower Moon. And interestingly enough, I don't think we've ever seen a moment where Leo has been nominated for a sag.
SPEAKER_02:There has, there has been. I think the one time was Jay Edgar, right? Um, but most often he does repeat that sag nomination, right?
SPEAKER_01:And um then I think it gets a little bit complicated. Um I think I I personally feel that Ethan Hawk for Blue Moon is safe. Um, I think that Ethan Hawk has never been nominated in the league category. He was snubbed um for first reformed after being a critic's favorite there and having that be the first time that he can land in the league category. Here, he's playing a real life figure. I think that helps. It's a celebrated turn. And I think if Ethan Hawk manages to land this nomination, and I think that he absolutely will, I think he will become Timothy Chalamet's biggest competition for that win. Um, in a way, it's kind of weird to think of Timothy Chalamet winning an Oscar before Ethan Hawke. Um, and I think there are some aspects about Marty Supreme and Timothy Chalamet's performance, and maybe possibly some antics uh in terms of you know the promotional press tour for the film that might rub some voters the wrong way and then might look for alternatives. And in the case that that does happen, um, Ethan Haw, I think will be the person to benefit from that.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:Another person that I feel pretty confident that won't miss is Wagner Mora for the secret agent, especially off uh right after winning that Golden Globe, which I think a lot of voters voters saw. Yeah. Um, I think he is the, in a way, international pick for the best actor after that can win for best actor.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_01:So when we talk about voters who might not be aware of Wagner Mora, you know, maybe don't like foreign films or the secret agent, there's a whole other faction of foreign voters, especially that we're saying are becoming more prominent, who have seen Wagner Mora in The Secret Agent, and another, you know, he's been working for 30 years already um in film, partly here, partly in Brazil, um who are going to be who are going to champion this nomination for Wagner Mora for the Secret Agent. Um that's what I think. What about you?
SPEAKER_02:I think you're right. I think with the Golden Globe drama when Wagner should technically be a step above some of his competitors. I think Ethan has the real figure thing going, but being alone and not being even a makeup shortlist um contender is warring. Um that's never a good thing. He might not be alone. I mean, we have it for the script right now, but we know that it is not necessarily a favorite. We're sort of pegging that it sneaks in. Um but there's this idea that Ethan Hawke, as celebrated as he is, has never been nominated for lead actor. You can make the theory that they just want to wait till Ethan Hawk is the lead actor of a film that is going to be nominated for nine Academy Awards, including Best Picture, directed by Richard Linkladder, um, for them to actually do this. Um it's kind of like it's kind of like the argument, you know, where Ethan Hawke is is too good in first reformed to not get in. I'm I'm not sure Ethan Hawk can escape that, but I do think he's safe for now. Technically, Leo is an easy way to lean this category out, but can they really do that to Leo after Cures of the Flower Moon? And I always thought that the history of him having passed up his work with Paul Thomas Anderson in 1997 in favor of Titanic to now come full circle and have this moment where it's such a celebrated film, and to not include him in that actor lineup feels like a little bit silly. It feels like I think the industry knows that he's been working toward this moment and it's finally happened, it's been a huge success. Um, Timothy Chalamet, you know, as unlikely as it sounds, like he's the favorite, but there's as much logic to have him snubbed because he's so young and he's gonna get these back-to-back nominations. And I understand that Marty is a runaway hit, um, and it's uh it's resonating with voters, so it seems unlikely. But on paper, if you take those other things out, you know, it's not very many actors who can score those back-to-back nominations. Um, and there's not very many actors who can score lead lead actor nominations exclusively, which is what his career would be at this point. Um and I think that's interesting. Um so I do think the race is between between six, and there's there is one actor who had got a little bit of, I think, of an edge between the BAFTA long list mentions and the SAG nominations, which was Jesse Plemens, right? Right. Um, but you and I, as we uh as we discussed earlier with Paul Meskell, Jesse Plemens is a little bit ahead of the academy. He got that surprise nomination for supporting actor for a best picture movie, Power of the Dog. His co-stars got nominated. Um, I do think that most voters are gonna say, do I have to nominate him right away? It is a a very committed, spectacular performance. And I have no doubt that um actors are big fans of Jesse Plummans. Yeah. Um and I and I know they're waiting for a collaboration with Yorgos that they can nominate. Um that being said, it's not very often that you have, and we and we research this, not very often that you have at the SAG movies that score a nomination for lead actor and lead actress that do not repeat at the academy. That we saw that that that's how rare of a species it is to have a film that has um equal roles um for men, for men and for women. Um, it's a very special thing, and and sag tends to um celebrate that, and the Oscars usually follow suit. Um, I think the last time in our research that that has failed to transpire, funnily enough, was when Joseph Fines got a lead actor nomination at SAG for Shakespeare and Love along with Gwyneth Paltrow, and only Gwyneth Paltrow was able to, you know, um muscle that into a nomination at the Oscars. Joseph Fines got famously snubbed, and that was I think at the fourth ever SAG Awards. Since then, it's only happened a handful of times, and it's usually resulted in um both actors getting in. Um now here's the caveat is I think that it was kind of a historic year because this year we had it twice. We had um begonia gad lead actor and lead actress, and we got one battle gather lead actor and lead actress. And so I guess because we're saying that one bat because we're saying they do the same thing, that maybe you don't need Jesse there because if you keep Leo there and you can still keep Chase, you can still follow that sort of trajectory that Zag has done. And because Leo is in the bigger film, that he's gonna be able to hold on to that, right? Um, so if we take out Jesse Plummins, we're down to maybe two actors.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I'll just say, you know, Jesse Plemmins is my favorite male performance of the year. If he were to get nominated for this, it's absolutely deserved. Um, he's incredible in Bugonia. That being said, I just think with such a competitive best actor field where someone uh is going to be left out and someone big. Um, I don't see voters making room for someone that they've already made room for. Right. Um, so like you said, taking Jesse Plemens out, we have six actors that are fighting for five spots.
SPEAKER_02:And so we have to talk about Joel Edgerton in Train Dreams, and we have to talk about Michael B. Jordan and Centers.
SPEAKER_01:In my mind, that last spot for actor is between the two of them. And it's it's it's it's incredibly difficult because they're both films that stand to get nominated for best picture. So in an ideal world, they would both be getting their first nomination because they're in best picture films and they're, you know, Joe Edgerton is the anchor of his film.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:You know, um, it's really hard to think that that film would get an item for best picture, but that his performance wouldn't. Right. The same way that it's really hard to think that Sinners would land 14 nominations and get possibly Wound Me or another supporting actor in, but he failed to get nominated for lead actor. Yeah. But that's the situation that I think we're in.
SPEAKER_02:And I think that our impression was after seeing it and and we revisited it, um, that despite how good he is, that on paper, the easier performance to snub is Michael B. Jordan. Yeah. Um, because they tend to be a little bit harsher about the kind of roles, not performances, but rather the roles that get highlighted for lead performance. And I think you brought up a great example. I think um Margot Robbie is actually the best performance in Barbie, but they're not going to nominate the character of Barbie. And obviously, this movie isn't as mired by, you know, you know, maybe uh critique on consumerism that some voters might have against Barbie. But it is still a film that is a populist film, a popcorn film. It was designed to be a blockbuster and it delivered and it is you know creatively inspired. But certainly some actors may feel like it's not the role that I need to nominate, even with like a dual performance, which has been nominated before. Nicholas Cage got a nominated for a dual performance, so that does happen. But on paper, it seems it makes the most sense to drop Michael. That being said, the problem with Michael is that Michael at this point in his career has been so many um strong roles, strong performances, memorable turns um that could have gotten attention um previously. And he he's he's waited um more than a decade now. I mean, his big breakthrough Foo Fell Station based on a real life figure, um, he had his um a performance in Creed, uh a lot of fans for his performance on Black Panther. And so it kind of feels it kind of feels wrong to leave him off this list at this point because he he doesn't have the benefit of, you know, when you sit down Ryan Gosling or you sit down Margot Robbie, and you kind of you can sort of hide behind, well, I've nominated them before and I'll nominate them again. And Michael's at the start of his career and it's it's gonna be um it's gonna be great. But I do think they're they're sort of like, okay, well, I it seems around around the time that I should be giving Michael his his first nod, I'm maybe a little bit late on that.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And I hear what you're saying, and I I'm on the other side of the coin. I do think that between the two of them, Joel Edgerton gives the stronger performance, and I think that's in no small part because I think the role for Joe Edgerton is uh more well drawn than the role for um uh Michael B. Jordan. We had we had a similar feeling after seeing it again, Sinners, that at least I felt that the performance itself, because he's playing uh twins, I didn't think there was enough differentiation between the two men that he was playing. And like I said, I don't think that character wise that uh Sinners is, you know, as devoted to performance, at least from its lead, as uh so much of Train Dreams is devoted to the lead performance of um Joel Edgerton. I will say that Joel Edgerton has waited as long as Michael B. Jordan. Um I think they both had their start in the industry around the same time. Joel Edgerton is older. Um, I will say that. Um, and I will say that it's hard to think of voters who feel passionate about train dreams and voting it, you know, high on their ballot, leaving out Joel Edgerton. It's not as hard for me to picture someone liking Sinners and thinking that Michael B. Jordan is not at the top of their ballot. You know, um, do you get what I'm saying? So so that's the way that I kind of am tempted to look at it a little bit. That being said, again, Sinners is such a jogger not that's destined to get so many nominations that it feels odd to leave out Michael B. Jordan. Unlike Margot Robbie, she was already a previous nominee. This would be his first nomination. I think that's a massive difference. If it was Margot Robbie's first nomination, I think she might have gotten the nomination.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um uh and it's really difficult to choose between the two.
SPEAKER_02:I think I want to add another element here, which is that um it's really difficult if you're Joel Edgerton to make this nomination happen without this sag mention. Yeah, because it is now two times that the sag have passed him over. He is a Golden Globe lead nominee in drama for Train Dreams, which is a best picture uh favorite at this point for among the 10 spots. Um obviously the filmmakers have some uh some sway with actors because Colin Domingo was nominated last year for Sing Sing, but Joe Edgerton was a previous nominee at the Golden Globes for Loving, which was able to get uh lead actress nomination for Ruth Nega, who's wonderful in that film. He missed that, and you would think that that would be front of mind for um voters, and it may it very well maybe, but the SAG snub again is a little bit troubling, even though again it's a committee, because I remember again we talk about timing differences. Ruth Nega got that Oscar nomination for loving a few years later. After being passed up at the SAG for that performance, they they they did write by her and gave her a nomination for passing and supporting actress, right? Right. And at the Oscars that year, they decided to, you know, sort of sideline her bit for that. Um, because in recognition, likely in likelihood, um, and most likely because they nominated her for loving. Yeah, and it didn't feel kind of like our argument with Paul Maskell that they needed to nominate her um so immediately um for that performance, which was she's also wonderful in. And so there are not too many actors that can sort of score um an Oscar nom after being overlooked twice by the SAG because the SAG could have just as easily said, Well, you know, um, I didn't give Joel a nomination for um loving, so I'll give him the nomination this time for Train Dreams, but they still said no. Yeah, um, and so I think there's a little, there's like a little bit of a timing issue here. Um, because like I said, I can't think of too many actors who have survived like dual snubbings from the sag and have been able to get that Oscar nomination regardless.
SPEAKER_01:And I think that's a very good point. I'll also point to the fact that as someone I because you love Train Dreams, it's one of your favorite films. I'm more okay with it. Um, but uh I think we when we saw the film, we we contemplated how it's so internal. You know, there isn't a lot of dialogue, there's a lot of narration, and sometimes, you know, actors like things that are a little bit more, you know, fleshed out in terms of you know uh scene jewelry. Um there's a lot of emotionality to the performance, and and and I find that to be quite effective. Um, he's very good in the film, but uh we we always wondered the first time that we saw it if maybe there's just a little bit, it's a little bit too still, a little bit too quiet for what voters tend to go for, um, or or or actors tend to go for.
SPEAKER_02:The other thing that I'll mention is that we did a little bit of digging, you know, curious about how tight this race is. And we know that Wagner has an edge here amongst some of these actors because he has that globe drama win. And although they have been overlooked in the past for Oscars after winning that, it's not what happens most often. But you're talking about if Wagner gets in there and you're gonna put in someone like Joel, that means two actors have to miss from the sag.
SPEAKER_03:Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and there aren't there's not too much precedent, really good precedent of what when that's happened. I think the most recent scenario is probably Teron Egerton for Rocket Man and Christian Bale for Vorvi Ferrari, but it's kind of easy to kick out um one of them because Christian Bale is coming off the nomination for Vice, right? Right. Um, so there's a really obvious person to kick out, and that's how you can get two in. Um, you know, I also think of, for example, I know that uh Phil Hoffman and Jim Carrey were nominated um together in 1999 for Man on the Moon and Flawless. And um again 2007, you had Emil Hirsch for Into the Wild and Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson. And again, it was really easy to at least kick out one of them um and and put in uh uh another actor because Ryan Gosling had been there the year before for Half Nelson at the Oscars. It's not really easy to kick out a second person besides Jesse Plemens, yeah. Besides Jesse Plemens, because he has that nomination for um Power of the Dog, but it's kind of hard to kick out Ethan Hawk as the only real person, um, or the the most real person, um, even if he's by himself and he's never been in this category, and he arguably should have been in there for um first reformed Leo in in the kind of movie that he's in, um, and the the snub and Michael, who hasn't made made headway yet in this category, um, despite his career in another really celebrated film, and then Timothy, which is the favorite, it's really, really difficult to think of someone else else to kick out, yeah. Um, because the films are so liked. And usually what happens in all the scenarios that I'm describing Into the Wild, Lars and the Real Girl, Flawless, Man on the Moon, uh, Rocket Man, and Forty Ferrari, these tend to be movies. The movie you kick out is usually the movie that doesn't get any acting nominations, and usually the movie that doesn't do that well um at all. And so, like Rocket Man got one nomination, and Forby Ferrari is just text and picture, you know what I mean? And Flawless and Man on the Moon got nothing. Yeah, and then Lars is just screenplay, and Instill Wild is just supporting actor. Um, so that's not the case for any of these films, other than you know, Ethan Hawk maybe. Possibly. But again, how long has it been that Best Actor hasn't had a real person? Right, right, right.
SPEAKER_01:And and I wonder, you know, before we wrap up actor, you know, this notion that we were bringing up in the supporting categories, how much it makes sense for Michael B. Jordan to just be landing his first nomination in, you know, this opportunity with Sinners, and then, you know, some of the act the contenders that we were talking about and supporting, you know, Odessa, you know, uh Jacob, you know, Paul kind of landing these first or second nominations already. And, you know, the weight has been a lot less compressed. Yeah. You know, so or a lot more compressed, rather. Um, it's it's it's not very consistent, as you were saying. But like I said, I think the safest thing is to leave out Joel Edgerton, which makes me feel really bad because I do think that Joel is the stronger performance, in my opinion. And I feel like he's an actor who constantly gets kind of like sat on the bench.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And I just think that that that's fair.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And I think he's worked with a lot of actors, and I think a lot of actors like Jesse Plemens understand that he's talented and super talented and and and and gifted and uh a filmmaker. He's a director, you know, he writes, you know, he's uh a cinephile. So in a way, I just feel like for such such so much that he brings to cinema, he always gets it always feels to me like he's always the one sat on the bench.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, it's it's kind of sad. Um, but I do think that you can set down multiple people. I think of, for example, I think Robert De Niro gave one of the best performances of his career in The Irishman, uh as the Irishman, um, in and nearly in the entire movie, and he does not get nominated, and they sort of wait to talk to the flower moon because he was just there for Silverlining's playbook. Can you see Leo maybe sidelined again? It's possible.
SPEAKER_01:I wonder if something shocking could happen where someone like Wagner Mora, who has been working for a very long time, but American audience, uh, American voters, American uh uh members of the uh film industry, maybe are less familiar with him and his work and more familiar with Joel Edgerton and Michael B. Jordan, where they say, Well, if I have to pick somebody, I'd rather pick Joel Edgerton, I'd rather pick Michael B. Jordan, and I'd rather not pick Whack Grove.
SPEAKER_02:It can absolutely happen. And I kind of brought up the idea to you where are voters gonna maybe say, you know, I kind of feel like I nominated a standout Brazilian performance last year that was also biographical and and tied rather poetically to the performance by their mother in Central Station. Yeah, and if voters are gonna wanna say, you know, I feel like I just did that. So let me see if I do something different. Um, the same way that you could argue that's the the behavior of putting Leo in. You know, I just left him off for a huge best picture movie. Yeah, this one's even bigger, and so I feel bad about leaving him off. So I'm gonna put him back in. And so I do wonder if, again, Oscar awareness is going to play a part, and you could see a shocking snub like what you're describing for Wagner.
SPEAKER_01:I think again, it helps that he just won the globe when voting started. So he was top of mind. Yeah. But that being said, when voters are presented with this challenge of okay, who do I leave out? Michael B. Jordan or Joel Edgerton, they might say, Well, I like both of them. I don't really know Wagner them Wagner Mora that much. Right. It will be shocking. Um, but look for that to be a possibility.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, so watch out for that. And let's not forget, Wagner Mora did not make the BAFTA long list.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And that is no small thing. However, it's not unheard of to not make the quote unquote BAFTA long list and still get nominated. Penelope Cruz did it.
SPEAKER_02:Pernando Torres? Um I don't believe she did.
SPEAKER_01:I don't remember. I don't remember, but I wouldn't be shocked if she didn't. Um uh Penelope Cruz did it with Parallel Mothers. So, and what does she have? She had the Venice win. Yeah, you know, Ragnar Mora has the Golden Globe one. And the can win. And the can win. I'm sorry, the can win is really what I meant to say. Um so it's something to be aware of. Yeah. So uh in conclusion, our final predictions for best actor are Timothy Chalamet and Marty Supreme, Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon, Ragnar Mora in The Secret Agent, Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, and Leonardo DiCaprio in one battle after another. Okay, and now moving on to our last acting category, which is Best Actress. I do think of the four categories, this is the easier one. I don't think it's you know fully, you know, completely easy, but I think it's the easiest one of the four. Right. Um, and I think there are three. I would say in my mind, there are four locks. Um, maybe you might disagree with the fourth one, but I think that Jesse Buckley is the future best actress winner. Period. That's done. Um, I think Rose Byrne proved a lot of people wrong. And you and I were skeptical at the beginning. Um, it's an amazing performance, but we were worried that not enough uh people were going to respond to the film. Lo and behold, she won the Golden Globe and she was nominated for the SAG, which I thought was going to be her biggest test. Yeah. And she pulled it off. After that happened, there's no way that Rose Byrne is not getting nominated. I will also say that I think one reason that the sag happens, one reason that the Golden Globe win happens, besides that it's a strong performance, I think it has a lot to do with it being Rose Byrne, and people want to see her have this moment. Yeah. And I applaud that because it's very worthy of a nomination. Do I think she's going to contend for the win in any way, shape, or form from Jesse Buckley? Absolutely not. The nomination is the win, and it's a big win because this is not the kind of movie that they embrace for uh Oscars.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:And she will be a definite nominee. So that's a win in my book. Um, she's locked and loaded, and I'm happy to I think everyone's happy to see her have this moment, very deserving. I think Renata missed the sag. She just won the European Film Award. She's in sentimental value. I think the Oscar voters will correct that. I think she has goodwill from Leftover Goodwill from Worst Person in the World. She's an amazing actor. She's one of the biggest, brightest talents of her generation. We all can't wait to see what she does next. We all are, I'm sure the Academy is excited to give her her first nomination. Um, it's an incredible performance. I think she's absolutely in, despite a SAG, you know, miss. Yeah. Um, so those three, in my opinion, are finished. Absolutely agree. Now, in my opinion, Chase Infinity is a lock. And I know some people might say they might think differently, but the reasons I feel she's a lock, you mentioned that statistic of the of the sag that she got in alongside Leo. She has not missed anywhere. Um, she's gotten in, and I think a lot of that has to do with the fact that yes, she's good in um one battle after another. I personally think she's more supporting than she is lead, but that was a huge, a very smart decision by Warner Brothers to put her in lead um because actress was the weaker category. There weren't a lot, a plethora of contenders, and I think that that is one reason that we've been seeing Chase Infinity pop up and again and again and again. Um, not only is she one, not only is she like uh Jesse Buckley and Renata Rinesville, uh, because she's in a best picture movie and she can benefit from being the quote unquote lead actress from a best picture movie. Um the rest of the field is lacking in best picture contenders. Right. Um, you know, whether you look at uh Kate Hudson and Melinda Seifried, Cynthia Revel, Jennifer Lawrence, Eva Victor, you know, Tessa Thompson, it's very much lacking in lead actress performances from Best Picture. That was always a huge asset that she had going for her. And I think that's one reason we've seen her consistently not miss. Right. And I think she's destined to not miss the Academy Award nomination because of the field she's in. And I also think she adds some diversity to the lineup, which I think is important. Um, and uh, I also think that people are excited to have her. I I think people like that narrative. They like the narrative of this brand new actor fresh on the scene with very few credits, all of a sudden being in the biggest film of the year, the but future best picture winner, and landing her first nomination.
SPEAKER_02:I think it's an important nomination too to be aware of when nominated when when they announce it, because there is a vulnerability here that we're all aware of, which is that Paul Thomas Anderson, uh fantastic director, great at spotlighting new talent, that new talent has historically had an issue breaking in here, whether it's VK Creops, whether it's Alana Haim, Cooper Hoffman, it's been it's Paul Paul Dano. It's it's very difficult for these performers to break in. And so if on announcement day that same hurdle exists for Chase and she can't um leap over it, it is possibly a sign that it's going to be a tighter race than we think between sinners and um one battle after another for pictures. So just be aware of that. Um, of the actors who are more established, she's certainly, you know, possibly the more vulnerable one, considering that again, she's very early in her career and this is a lead actress category. But I think you're right, she benefits from what is a a mostly thing category. Um, I think you could set it perfectly. Rose Byrne for this performance, it's great that she's getting nominated. But had she already been nominated for an earlier performance, she would be getting snubbed for this. Yeah. Um, the same thing where if you put uh Jennifer Lawrence, um if you give if you let Jennifer Lawrence give that performance in Die My Love after not having gotten any nominations for anything that she did in the past, I have no doubt that Jennifer Lawrence would be in for the performance in Die My Love. Um, so it's perfect timing for Rose Byrne, it's bad timing for Jennifer Lawrence. Um, I think Chase is riding this the momentum of her movie, and um, I do expect to see her here, which leaves us with one spot.
SPEAKER_01:Right. Um, you know, in a way, there was an opportunity at some point to have a list of possibly Jesse Buckley, Rose Byrne, Renata Ryanza, um uh Jennifer Lawrence, as you just mentioned, and Amanda Safrie for the testament of Anne Lee. And that would have been an all-timer best actress list. That would have been spectacular. Every performance there deserves to be nominated, deserves to win. Now, unfortunately, we were very high. Well, we were very high on Amanda Safried getting in here because we felt that she solved an issue that we were seeing in this best actress field, which is that we were lacking a real life figure, um, a bona fide real life figure. And obviously Amanda Safe is playing Ann Lee. However, once we saw the movie, which is one of my absolutely favorite films of the year, it's a very critically acclaimed film. I think it just was released in limited theaters and it didn't have a bad, it didn't have a bad return. That's great. Um uh I don't know what will happen when it gets a wider release, uh, but clearly uh the American industry has well, once we saw it, we understood that it's a challenging piece of work. Um, it's an ambitious, uh staggering achievement, but it's uh it's going to be a film that uh voters are going to struggle to uh attach to to get on the wavelength of, and that's what's happened. You know, by and large, the American industry has snubbed it wherever it could. At all the guilds, despite fabulous work, incredible work down the line, photography, costumes, production design, music, makeup, makeup. It's an incredible film, incredible production, down uh top to bottom. Amanda Safried is incredible. She gives what I really feel is her finest performance to date. She is absolutely worthy of recognition in this category. Um, however, I just don't think it's gonna happen. I think her moment was to possibly beat Roseburne for that Golden Globe win. She didn't. Agreed. Um, and again, I didn't think she didn't because I think even as hard, even as difficult as I think for some viewers to I think access if I had legs I'd kick you, I still think some viewers will have more, some voters will have an easier time accessing that than uh the testament of Ann Lee.
SPEAKER_02:More voters are gonna feel passionate about finally spotlighting Rose over Amanda.
SPEAKER_01:I think Amanda Seyfried might also suffer from the fact that she already is a nominee, so there's not a rush to have to give her a second nomination this early on. And a big time winner also at the Emmys for playing Elizabeth Holmes. Might have might have had a factor in her not winning the Golden Globe, also. Um, and so I think that Amanda Seafried, as much as she deserves to be in here, I don't expect her to surprise.
SPEAKER_02:Um which is funny because that essentially leaves Fox Searchlight, or rather, searchlight pictures, with a zero this year. Um, and the last time they got a zero was in two thousand and five. Wow. That's 20 years ago.
SPEAKER_03:Wow.
SPEAKER_02:Um, other than that, they've always been able to break into at least one category. And to be honest, they I think they had a a season low of something like that. Like three, that's that that's the year of Jackie. And so this is a huge, huge setback for Searchlight.
SPEAKER_01:I have to wonder, now that we're on this topic of uh Amanda Safe and the Tess of Van Lee, I have to wonder if you know Searchlight Pictures was, I think, under the impression that their other film that went to Toronto, um, which you saw, um Rental Family was going to be a bigger horse than it was. But I think at some point there was a rumor that at Sundance uh Searchlight Pictures was uh in the running or they were considering uh uh getting their rights to Kiss of the Spider Woman, which is another musical. Right. And I have to, and at the end they ended up splurging on another musical, but um an even more art house musical like the Testament of MB. And so I have to wonder if you know had they just gone with a more recognizable musical like Kiss of the Spider Woman, which again did not do well in the box office. So maybe nothing would have changed if you know Searchlight was on top of the distribution, but maybe it would have been an easier film to promote and access uh for guilds, certainly, and for for the American sector of the uh uh uh uh industry um than the testament of Anne Lee has proven to be. So I wonder if there was like a uh sort of a wasted opportunity there.
SPEAKER_02:That is a fantastic, fantastic question, and something we're gonna be left wondering um in the future and for the rest of the season. Um, but suffice it to say that despite all the potential, um, Anne Lee has not done well and has not done well all season.
SPEAKER_01:Um and I will also say that you know, we were very high on Amanda Safe because of uh, as I mentioned earlier, she could be the real life figure spot in this list. And I think, you know, we're gonna have to rely on Jesse Buckley being that real life figure, right? Even though she's not tech I mean, technically she is playing Shakespeare's wife, um, even though she goes by Agnes instead of um Anne. Right. Um, however, I think that's gonna have to be good enough for that real life, quote unquote real life figure.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, the I and to jump from there to the only other real contender we have to sort of fit that bill who had sort of a late surge at the end, and some pundits have really been trying to sell, and that's uh Kate Hudson um for uh and I will say that Kate Hudson would solve the issue or would would occupy that space as you were saying, that Amanda Safety would have as a real life figure.
SPEAKER_01:The film I don't think has done poorly uh commercially.
SPEAKER_00:No.
SPEAKER_01:Um and uh it's done, you know, decent with critics and you know, nothing over the moon. Um, but you know, Kate Hudson, there's no denying that she hasn't been a precursor favorite, but she certainly managed the Golden Globe, and more importantly, she managed the SAG nomination. Right. Um, I certainly think that uh many voters or or people rather uh uh people in the press are considering this to be, you know, a return, a comeback. She hasn't been here since Almost Famous. In a way, it's it's also a category shift. She's going from supporting to lead, she's playing a real life figure, which I think helps her bid. Right. Um, and I have we've been hearing that there are many people, you know, in her corner kind of stomping for her to get that nomination. I still remember when Hugh Jackman at the Gotham said that she might she was gonna win. Yeah. Um Nepple baby. You know, she's uh daughter of Goldie Hahn, you know, so I don't discredit that as being, you know, assets and things to consider. And I do feel that that final spot that we're discussing is between uh someone like Kate Hudson for Songsung Blue and who someone else we'll get into in a minute, which is Emma Stone for Begonia. In my opinion, that last spot is strictly between those two and nobody else.
SPEAKER_02:The math would make it appear so. I mean, unfortunately, Tessa Thompson never materialized. They were too busy, uh, they were too distracted with Julia Roberts, so that never happened. Um, should they get up after the long list mention? But again, had uh just another movie matching. Waste of potential. Wasted potential. So many fantastic movies featuring great performances from from actors um that they just did not get their due this year, um, which is a shame. Um, but I think you're right. I think the last spot is down to the focus features girls, which is something that we were skeptical about when we were predicting our sag nominations. At the SAG, you had Focus Features essentially dominate best actress with a nomination for Jesse Buckley, Kate Hudson, and Emma Stone. And it looks like it's gonna be focus versus focus in the fifth spot in actress, right?
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Um a hundred percent. And I think, yeah, we're gonna have to choose between Emma Stone and Kate Hudson. Again, I really feel that we that that people are responding to Kate Hudson's performance, you know, which I think, you know, I have my own personal thoughts about how successful the entire film is. You know, I certainly think, you know, there are brights bright spots to Kate Hudson's performance, especially her accent work. You know, I think the more dramatic elements of the film, top to bottom in the film, you know, struggle more in my mind, in my opinion. Um, I think Emma Stone is the more impressive performance, in my opinion. Uh I think it hurts that Emma Stone was just there for another Yorgos film where she won Best Actress. Um that's what we've been saying all season. We've been saying that all season. However, Begonia has continued to show its strength and it never let up, and it just was consistent. Yeah. And so ultimately, I think that the advantage goes to Emma Stone because this is an opportunity where voters, both domestic as both domestic and and and international, will have an opportunity to support Begonia.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and as we've seen, it has support because it did well at SAG, it did well at the Golden Globes, it did well at the European Film Awards, it did well at the Baptist along list. So there's enough admiration, respect, appreciation for this film that it should not go out empty-handed. And we have an open spot in actress, and we have her biggest competition being, you know, a much less um uh a more inferior film like Songsung Blue. So I think a film like Bugonia has the edge there. I mean, I will also say that again- Even though again it's odd to have Emma Stone repeat so soon for another Yorgos film, and someone like Jesse Flemmons, you know, can't because support because actor is more competitive.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um, who he's waited a little bit longer since 2021, um, and he has a category shift. Um, but yeah, I think the real person factor is is missing, and I think I think we're potentially saying that the strongest real performance based on a real figure this year is maybe Ethan Hawke. Is that right? Yeah. Um because the other categories are really I mean, if you don't count Jesse Buckley or something. I do count her, and I'm gonna count her as like the two-person minimum as the same like all-time low that we saw with in 2022 when it was Austin Buller and Elvis and Anna Dormas in blonde. So I do I'm gonna say that, but among the two of them, I certainly think that Blue Moon is a little bit stricter in my definition of you know being based on a real person. Um I guess we count Paul Masko, by the way. So I guess that's three if if cur the curse of Shakespeare doesn't happen. Um and you know, when you think about Emma Stone getting in for this, I do have some hesitation because I I've seen the film and I know what voters would have to um put up with. No, not for Bogoni, but I was gonna say Jennifer Lawrence hasn't been here in ten years, a decade, and maybe maybe, just maybe she can have enough tiny little small votes to get in here.
SPEAKER_01:But the movie is so challenging. So challenging, so not that one of my favorites of the year. She's incredible, she deserves that recognition, that nomination. I highly doubt it.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, there's just no, I think, evidence to suggest that they're going to watch and like a Lynn Ramsey film. Um, and to also know that, you know, her next project coming up is with Leo DiCaprio and and Marty Scorsese, you know, I I think the urgency isn't there.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um so I don't think we have very many good options.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah, Cynthia Revel kind of was like as I mentioned, supporting actors, you know, there was potential there to be the Cynthia Revel moment, but it didn't materialize because, first of all, it should have been one movie, it should have been one movie, um, and uh really Cynthia Revel takes a backseat in Wicked for Good, yeah. Um, to the detriment of the film, in my opinion. And um, so it can't be Cynthia Reeves, so Tessa Thompson would be Tessa Thompson would have been great, would have been terrific, yeah, terrific.
SPEAKER_02:She makes perfect sense here, but they just didn't they didn't really support her film as they should have.
SPEAKER_01:No, not at all. And also we could have seen uh Tessa Thompson, Ina Haas, you know. Oh, yeah, they could have uh partnered and get in together, maybe get into costume design as well. Yes, um, so wasted potential there. So our final predictions for best actress are Jesse Buckley for Hamlet, Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs, I'd kick you, Renato Reinesville for Sentimental Value, Chase Infinity for one battle after another, and Emma Stone for Begonia. Okay, and now moving on to best director. Um, you know, I think it's a little bit of a tricky category as well, but I think that the field is now down to seven to eight contenders, and there are a few locks.
SPEAKER_02:I mean, I think we should start with the DJ five, okay, which should be the best picture favorite five, and that's um Paul Thomas Anderson was a nominated at the DJ for one battle after another, as was Ryan Kugler for Sinners, Chloe Zhao for Hamnet, Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, and Josh Safty for Marty Supreme. Lo and behold, there were no international contenders. Which is not a surprise, not a surprise, but we know even if this was back in the dark ages and international contenders had a very difficult time in Best Picture, the Best Directors Branch has been one of the most open um to international uh films and titles. And so we know that this five will not hold up at the Oscars, and the very first place to look for replacements are the international contenders, and I think I think the best person to start with is Jafar Panahi.
SPEAKER_01:Jafar Panahi is one of the heroes of cinema, Iranian cinema, certainly. Um I think it was just an accident being the Palm Dior winner. Uh, this is just the perfect opportunity to finally welcome him into the club. He's never received a nomination, and again, he's a monumental figure in cinema, in world cinema.
SPEAKER_02:Um, I don't see a way that Jafar Panahi is not nominated, especially with the Palm Dior streak handed to him by Julia Benoche, NK Planchett, everything that's going on in Iran right now, um, the way it was campaigned by Neon, um, championed all year throughout the season, uh, notable uh moments with Maurice Crusades. Um, and so I absolutely agree that it's just unfathomable to think of a list that is not going to contain Jafar. Um, before we go further, I guess let's we can maybe agree that there are two additional locks um that are essentially fighting for the win and far ahead of everyone else, and that's um Paul Thomas Anderson should get in. Yes, right, he's the favorite to win, and he this is I think his fourth would be his fourth uh directing nomination. Um and then Ryan Kugler should finally get in for centers, which is uh a major achievement. Um, and so we're we're totally expecting that to happen. Um, three spots left. We do think Jafar has the edge over the other individuals to say at the DJA. Um, who are we thinking possibly for fourth?
SPEAKER_01:Okay, so I think that's where it gets tricky. Um I know that for gold derby, for example, and some people are in my mind unfathomably thinking that Jafar Panahi is gonna miss. Um, but if we take that possibility out, the contenders for those last two spots are Chloe Zhao for Hamnet, Guillermo Toro for Frankenstein, uh Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value, Josh Safty for Marty Supreme, and Kleber Mendoza Filo for The Secret Agent. I think certainly the last two spots will come from there. Um it's uh important to note that that's uh I believe those are two no two foreign films. Yeah. Um and then uh got two previous winners there.
SPEAKER_02:Two previous winners Guillermo del Toro.
SPEAKER_01:And someone who would be making their debut in the best director category.
SPEAKER_02:That's the very first nomination here.
SPEAKER_01:That's Josh Safty, even though uh the Safety Brothers have been working for a while. Um in my mind, there's just way too much momentum for Marty Supreme and too much of an opportunity to finally welcome a Safety brother um to the fold that I think uh that I think that Josh Safty absolutely has the edge here to get in with his film and get nominated as both a writer and a director. Um go ahead.
SPEAKER_02:I think I think you're right, and I think we had a discussion where you pointed out something that was really important, which is this category beyond uh traditionally typically um having spots reserved for international contenders of late, they have been very pro-nominating directors for the first time in their career, and it seems like they're making a conscious effort to prioritize that, and that is a huge advantage for Josh. I think the other conversation we had is A-24 has made so many great inroads with this branch it's very difficult to think of a time that they get nominated for best picture and do not show up here in this category. And so this if a miss here for Josh would be pretty massive, and it's gonna leave, I think, A-24 really um scratching their head as to how that happened. I mean, we're talking about um Lenny Abrahamson being able to score a nomination here on when Room scored a nod for Best Picture. And so I I think that we're both in agreement that between the way the the branch has been leaning lately with um nominating directors for the first time, and again, the safties have been working for a while, and they had a huge breakout at Cannes in 2017 when Guillermo de Toro was winning this category for Shape of Water, so they're not new filmmakers by any stretch of the imagination. Um and between that and just the great track record that A24 has, Josh Safty should be in here.
SPEAKER_01:100%. And I also think there's something there it's worth mentioning that the best actor winner, um, if Timothy Chalamet is believed to be the front runner for best actor, the best actor winner should have their director nominated. Um there it's not you know set in stone, it doesn't happen all the time, but it it's it's more often than not more often than not. And the last time it didn't happen was Brandon Fraser when he went for another A24 film. Yeah. Um that being said, that was not the case, that was not a uh critically acclaimed film the way that Marty Supreme is. That is not that was not the juggernaut amongst the guilds, the way that Marty Supreme is, not a DJ5 movie, not a DJ 5 movie, so it's a complete different scenario. Um, we should absolutely see Josh Safety and Marty Supreme there, and I think a lot of people are somehow still thinking that that won't happen. And I think you are smoking. No, no, um, no, I just think that people aren't looking at uh the data, and I think it's really hard for Josh Safety to miss here.
SPEAKER_02:And again, I do think if if he does miss, if you're A24, you're gonna you're gonna really wonder how you lost that battle. Right.
SPEAKER_01:Um and I think that leaves us with one spot. One spot, people. One spot. And it's not easy. Um, however, I do think that I personally think there's someone that's way ahead of everyone everyone else. And I'm gonna say that that person is Joaquim Trier. We saw that recently when he just won the European Film Award for Best Director, which has a terrific track record thus far of landing in uh best director for the Academy, especially with the crossover appeal between, you know, international voters and the academy as of late. Um uh he's in again a can darling, a critics darling. Uh he's already a past nominee for writing, he's never been recognized in the directing category. Um, so they're they're aware of his work. Um and uh that European film award stat is a big one. Um also, you know, if he stands to get three actors nominated, you know, it's rare to have a film, not uh uh a director, a film by a director where they landed possibly three acting nominations, maybe even four, and Nakanaya for best director. Uh that's another thing to to keep in mind. And I just think that there's too much going for Rikim Trier to uh for Joachim Trier to miss this fifth spot.
SPEAKER_02:I think all the stats you're saying are really compelling and um yeah, they bode really well for seeing Joaquim here, especially after that big night at the European Film Awards. I think you know the advantage for Chloe Zhao is that she would join history and be one of the few um female directors to get invited back into this category after having won Jane Campion, I believe, is the only one. Excuse me, no, Jane Campion um went from a loss to a win. So excuse me, I don't think there's been uh a female director to go from a win to a second nomination.
SPEAKER_01:She'd be breaking history, but also be breaking history in terms of uh how long it takes to get a second nomination or best director.
SPEAKER_02:Right. Um as a as a female as a female filmmaker. And again, that's I think an advantage of hers, but it could be a reason why they leave her off the list. And if you look at someone like Yermo Dotoro, who I think, you know, we believe has this um such a uh um uh uh an admirable place in this industry. I think people uh uh really respect him, but they uh are really moved by how much he loves cinema. And I've caught I've sort of told you before that I think that Guillermo is the heir to Maris Corsesi, like in terms of you know, a teacher for all of us, um, whether you're in the industry or you're you're watching in a theater, you know, his admiration and love for cinema is contagious and infectious, and um he's just a wonderful teacher. And I and to think that he hasn't been in this category again, again, after having won this category for Shape of Water, I think that's the biggest thing going for him.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um, and then we talk about Kleber. Kleber, right? And um incredible filmmaker, incredible filmmaker, and as of right now, we're leaving him off the screenplay category. And some people could make the argument that sent uh secret agent may be a real dark horse to steal international film this year, yeah. In which case, traditionally, when this category has opened its arms to a foreign film director, which is all the time, it has usually been the foreign film winner. Yeah, right. And that's that's the tough part. Um, now um the thing about Joaquin, which is kind of interesting, is that you know, we're gonna find out if maybe the branch in the academy maybe box him in into that category of writer, director who's a little bit more of a writing presence. Like it's tough for me to think of Joaquin being able to break in before someone like Noah Bombach, for example. Um it just it just reminds me of this idea that sometimes directors look at a film and say, Well, is it more written or more directed? Sometimes they may feel like it's more written. Um, and I think you're right. I think Joaquim uh is well positioned to to break that this year and to follow that European Film Award win to a nomination. But should he fall short of it, I think that may be the case. Just the idea that it's not the you know wide-ranging directori that they that they wanted. Right. That makes sense.
SPEAKER_01:I think that's a good point. Um, you know, if someone were to fall from those five that we're predicting, I would most look to someone like Yamu Lotoro to um occupy that that spot. And I think a lot of people might be surprised, but we this is not the first time we've talked about on our podcast that we're sensing that Chloe Zhao is primed for a snub here. Um, just because I think the director's branch is notoriously selective. I think it's no coincidence, unfortunately, that female filmmakers have had to wait such a long time to be recognized even a first time that Jane Campion was able to do it rather recently, but had to wait so long to get her second time her second nomination where she ended up winning. Yeah, Chloe Zhao is coming, as you said, from a win. And I don't think that I think some filmmakers will be hard on her and wonder if she's done enough in the interim between Nomad Land and Hamnet to merit, quote unquote, a director nomination. Um, I think that's a big handicap that I don't think not enough people are talking about. Right. Um, it's just not something that they tend to do. If she were to pull it off, I think it would be, again, as we said, historic, and I think a big moment for uh uh female filmmakers, humongous. Absolutely. Um, but it's not what they typically would opt to do. Yeah. And so, as you said, I think there's a big trend here for them to acknowledge and embrace new filmmakers into the fold. I don't think it's a coincidence that in our five, four of them are newbies who've never been recognized. And one of them is a filmmaker who has been here before but has not had an Oscar.
SPEAKER_00:Right.
SPEAKER_01:You know, has never won an Oscar. Right. Both Chloe Zhao and Guillermo del Toro are Oscar winners for best director. Right. And I think that goes a long way in them possibly saying, okay, well, first people off the chopping block are Guillermo del Toro and Chloe Zhao.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And and I I do want to say that the other thing that is worth mentioning is just the idea of Guillermo del Toro beyond having this sort of iconic status amongst fans and members of the industry, is also the idea that Netflix does well in this category. And Netflix, I I don't believe, has ever doubled up in Best Picture and failed to score best director. And that's a pretty damning thing. Um, and that's that's yet another advantage that Guillermo has. The question is who does he wield that advantage over? Um and maybe, you know, if you consider Jafar Panahi and everything that he represents and Joachim's win at the European Film Awards, maybe you could make the argument that he can get in there over Josh, who will be nominated in so many other categories. Maybe, maybe, maybe. But then I do have to think that A24 is really gonna take that, you know, that L pretty seriously because this is now their highest earning film. You know what I mean? They put all their chips in this massively budgeted film, which is not their thing, and it's paying off. Um, but yeah, that Netflix stat is is also pretty damning. So someone it's gonna be this is gonna be a a a quiet bloodbath, you know, when it when it comes time for the announcements.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_02:Um, I I like the way that we're leaning, but there's there's good reason to see any of the other contenders show up.
SPEAKER_01:Yeah. Um so again, uh don't be shocked if there's a same a very surprising snub here. I think as as higher as we are on Jafar Panahi, anyone but PTA Ryan Kugler, you know, could possibly be snubbed in this category. Um but right now we're feeling good about for our predictions best director, Paul Thomas Anderson for one battle after another, Ryan Kugler for Sinners, Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident, Josh Safty for Marty Supreme, and you'll cream Trier for Sentimental Valley. And finally, the final category, drum roll, best picture. And so, you know, in a way, I'm glad this is the last category because I think most people feel pretty good about nine spots, and I agree with people on nine spots, and the one that I don't agree with, I think that's the spot that we really have to dissect, explain. The most debatable, yeah. Um, in my mind, there are just a select group of films that can get that 10th spot, but we'll discuss it.
SPEAKER_02:And so just running down the I mean, well, I think I was gonna say that maybe the best place to start because I do feel like there's a huge bifurcating line in this race, which is the DJA 5, right? Which is one battle after another from Warner Bros., Sinners from Warner Brothers, Frankenstein from Netflix, Marty Supreme from A24, and Hamnet from Focus Features. Those five films are so ahead of the other films, of which two one battle, the two Warner Brothers films, one battle after another, and Sinners are so much ahead of among the five, um, that there's a huge line there, right, in the contenders. And then after that, what you'll see is the influx of favored international titles, right? Including the big winner from the European Film Awards, Sentimental Value. Neon, Sentimental Value, uh coming out of Norway, um, then from Neon, um coming out of Iran and um repping France the Palm Dior winner, which has historically done well here. It was just an accident, and finally the movie that has surprisingly, amongst that competition, been sweeping or getting a lot of the mentions for foreign film, Brazil, who's looking to repeat in foreign film, the most winning film from Can this year, um, The Secret Agent, also from Neon. And so that leaves you with eight spots, right? And then I'll let you pick up on what you really believe is the strongest ninth spot movie.
SPEAKER_01:Well, I will say that I think we're looking at a second Netflix film for the ninth spot, and that's Train Dreams, which I think has done really well. Yes, it got blanked at SAG, but has shown up everywhere else. Um, I think when we talk about American independent films, it's one of the few films that stands out as uh the spot that's reserved for an American indie. You know, it's not sorry, baby, and it's not, I don't know, Twinless, you know, it's Train Dreams, right? Which had its premiere at Sundance and has stayed alive because I think people have responded to it that strongly. Yeah. Um, it got the PGA mention. Yeah, um, it's just gotten everywhere I think it needs to be. Um, and considering, you know, its competitors, you know, the films that are below it, I think it's the clear uh front runner for that ninth spot. Um, is Train Dreams. And also, interestingly enough, the uh collaborators, the filmmakers behind Train Dreams are also the filmmakers behind Sing Sing. And interestingly enough, they were snubbed last year, um, despite getting three other Academy Award nominations, including screenplay and actor. Yeah. Um, in a way, this is a DO-over, yeah, and an ability to finally make the top category, best picture. Yeah. So in my mind, I don't know if you agree, but that I think number nine is definitely Train Dreams.
SPEAKER_02:I agree. I feel like that is the safest bet for a number nine film, um, which I I to you know to repeat what I've been saying, I think the number nine film is a little bit ahead of whatever film comes out in 10th. Yes. And so this is the fun part because this is the debatable part, right? And so the PGA gave us a couple of films, including Surprise Mention for Weapons, right? Um, a surprise mention for a film that's done really well at the guilds and was a massive blockbuster this year. That's F1 from Plan B. Um, and then you, as we've mentioned a bunch of times, you continue to see the strength of Bugonia from Focus Features, right? Um and then uh beyond that, you know, some of the early movies that people were pegging got uh blanked there, including Avatar and Wicked. So those are very much sidelined at this point. Um we think they are at least. Yeah, at least that that's what we're assuming. Um Bugonia also doing really well at BAFTA, has European uh support from the European Film Awards, and I think a lot of people are are leaning towards Bugonia, but we have some alternatives, right?
SPEAKER_01:Right. I think the favorite is Bugonia for that 10th spot. Personally, I think there are a couple of other films that might be a bit more tempting to voters. Well, I mean, you look at a film like No Other Choice, which again has been doing well here in the States and was a big favorite at Venice, even though it got blanked um and did well at the Golden Globes, hasn't been able to really separate itself from the neon pack. In fact, it's fallen behind, probably. Yeah, fallen behind. But interestingly enough, and I and I really want us to talk about this film, another neon film has been able to separate itself from the pack, and that's Surratt. Yeah, you know, premiering at Cannes and won the jury prize. While we were at Cannes, it was all the talk. Talk of the talk. Um, we finally were able to see it a few weeks ago, and it's a mesmerizing, uh, incredible cinematic experience. I know it has a lot of fans in the uh film community. There are a lot of people who are passionate about it, both you know, um American filmmakers and international filmmakers. Um, I think we saw its strength, as we've said many times in the in the short lists.
SPEAKER_02:At the Oscars.
SPEAKER_01:Uh, right. Uh the the Oscar shortlists. We saw the strength at the European Film Awards rather recently. And so right now, if you consider Surratt to be a strong contender for for categories like sound design, which again, a foreign film has never, I think, ever got a nominated for sound design and not been a best picture nominee. More often than not. More often than not, at least. Um, if you consider it to be a strong contender in score, if you consider it to be a strong contender as we do in casting, if you consider it to be uh uh a strong contender, well, obviously an international film, you know, you're racking up nominations for Surratt.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um, and you know, I do think there's a lot of passion behind it. What I don't like is filling that 10th spot with yet another neon film.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:You know, um, there's already a lot of neon films, you know. So I don't know that they need to do a fourth one. Again, there's so many foreign films that people have posited the possibility that there's just too many to uh it's it's too the the attention is too divided because there's so many, you know, that not one contender gets enough of the you know attention and the traction. Could we see be seeing that occur? And something like Surratt or even another foreign film that we were predicting is gonna get in, gets sidelined. It's possibly possible. It's possible. Possibly. Um, but uh I think Surratt is a strong contender, and I think a stronger contender that some people are giving it credit for.
SPEAKER_02:I absolutely agree. Um, there's something to be said about you know this the late search for F1, but I I do wonder if Plan B, which snuck out a nomination last year for Nickel Boys, can get in for something so um populist. Um and then, you know, the thing about Bugonia is that uh Yorgos has had such tremendous success that it just doesn't feel like it's walking the same road as you know either of his two previous films, um, of which he was nominated with them. So just the fact that he's not as a strong contender for best director, potentially. Um, I I wonder sometimes about weapons and and watch out for weapons because if weapons shows up here, I think a couple of things can happen. First of all, you may reduce the number of neon films to three, and you could bump up the number of Warner Brothers films up to three, and that might be a nice symmetry, a tie for most best picture mentions. At the same time, I think it could easily be a sort of um rallying call for the future of the business in terms of giving Warner Brothers three nominations, and it's maybe the end of operations from Warner Brothers as we know it, because their future and and what's going to happen to them in the next year is going to potentially be very different. Um, we don't know what it's gonna look like, a future where Netflix and Warner Brothers are, you know, on the same side and in the same building, so to speak. Um, and so it could very much be sort of a swan song to that. Who knows what's gonna happen to the new line uh brand of filmmaking that was, you know, um so many things uh at the start of Paul Thomas Sanders' career and and and born from horror and nightmare and upstreet. So don't be surprised if that happens. And the other thing is, you know, don't be surprised that a mention there is possibly a sign for strength for Amy Madigan to win Best Supporting Actress. You know, they they do like to have Best Picture full of the winners, the films that are going to win awards. And same thing if if Surratt ends up there with Neon, expect Surratt to pull out a win somewhere, right? And they're timing the release for Surratt at just the perfect moment for it to take off with U.S. audience.
SPEAKER_01:I think so. I think 100% that's true. Um, and I will say I echo what you're saying about Bogonia. I find it uh I find it unlikely, as much as it's a favorite right now for Bogonia, despite its the power that it's shown, that Academy of Voters are gonna think that a Yorgos film needs another best picture mention after being, you know, well recognized for the favorites and for poor things. And those films I think arguably were much bigger plays than Begonia is. I agree. Right now we're thinking maybe screenplay, maybe an acting or two, right? You know, which is just I don't think is enough to merit a best picture mention, you know, again, considering that we're just coming off Yorgos High. Right.
SPEAKER_02:Um I don't know if maybe there's something there about how Yorgos is sort of mentioned that he has to take a little bit of time to reset after this film, but it it certainly felt to a certain point, you know, before watching the film and before everything that's happened this season, that the next time that Yorgos is going to have an opportunity to compete in best picture and best director, it's probably going to, you know, fall in his favor, so to speak. Yeah. And I don't think that obviously Begonia is just not the timing for that. And so it feels like if that is the case, why not just uh wait um a little while longer?
SPEAKER_01:As you we mentioned, Wicked and Avatar, I think, are in the same boat of films that you know underperform. Well, at least Wicked underperformed commercially, and um uh not it still made a lot of money, but yeah, not like the first part, and certainly critically and avatar, you know, uh part two was already underperforming critically, and now part three is even less. Right. So, in a way, they're kind of the same, they're in they're the same film in a way. Absolutely. Um, and so I think the PGA snub makes it clear, and the SAC snub for ensemble, it just makes it clear that I think people want to reserve those coveted spots for you know more successful films. Yeah, I agree. Um, more um fat more uh uh important, significant films for the year. Unique films, yeah. Yes, unique films. Um, and then the other film that I'd like to talk about that I think not enough people are talking about is Blue Moon. And you know, what I like about Blue Moon is that it would give us a new studio in the lineup. We already have uh two Warner Brothers, we already have two Netflix, we have three Neons, we've just got one A24 and one Focus Features. This gives us at least a little bit of new blood and gives us a new studio in Sony Pictures, which has um Sony Picture Classics, which has a notoriously historically done well with the Academy. Um they just know how to reach voters and voters to to get voters to see their films. Um, they repeatedly surprise, and I'm not sure. I don't think that Blue Moon made a bunch of money. Um but however, you know, it's about something that I think a lot of voters are going to respond to that resonate with voters. I think the Ethan Hawk best or best actor nomination and very possibly the biggest competition for uh Timothy Chalamet makes it a more a more uh a bigger best picture play than some people are giving it, you know, uh credit for. Um, I think the fact that it already that it that it could land a screenplay nomination, that's a screenplay nomination, an acting nomination, that's a hopping and a skipping away from getting a best picture nomination.
SPEAKER_00:Yes.
SPEAKER_01:You you you got you got cited in the screenplay world, you got cited in the acting world, you could just get cited in best picture. And again, you have someone like Sony Picture Classics backing you. Um so I really like the possibility of Blue Moon joining this lineup. What keeps me guessing about it is the fact that, you know, if you've seen the film, it's you know rather static, you know. Um some some some voters might not you know be too you know thrilled with that, but I think the majority of voters I think have so far responded to it, and um, or at least the the industry, and uh, you know, certainly in the precursors. So I think uh that there's a lot of love for that film.
SPEAKER_00:Yeah.
SPEAKER_01:Um and I like that it's about a you know historically uh you know important figure in the world of showbiz. Um and we're missing some of that. We're missing some of these like real life stories. Yeah, I feel like tend to do well in this category.
SPEAKER_02:That's I feel like that's what I was gonna say, which is that it does feel like we're missing some of that real life um films that have con you know sort of conventionally done well here. Um, and that tied with, you know, for example, the best surprise best picture mention for the film um at the Golden Globes. Yeah, um, you know, there's Sony Pictures knows how to sell a movie, and you have Richard Linkladder who's beloved by uh the industry.
SPEAKER_01:And also he's had two, he's had a big year because he's had two films.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, big year, an amazing year. Um, but he's beloved by American audiences and members of the American industry. Um, he's uh beloved by members of the international industry. This film has you know uh European money behind it as well. Um, having, I believe, shot at least a portion overseas. Um, so I think all that may very well break in its favor. Um, Sony Picture Classics. Again, they know how to campaign, um, they know how to do their thing. Case in point, Nuremberg, you know, had a bunch of great mentions at the BAFTA long list. Yeah, um, so they know how to target their voters. Um I think right now, probably the wisest uh movie to push in is likely Surratt.
SPEAKER_01:I don't know if you're you know, in my opinion, as I said, at the top of the category, I think it's really between two people for that 10th spot, and that's Surrat and Blue Moon. Um, I'm not as high as you are on weapons, even though I see the logic. I just don't think, again, I think Sinners has usurped some of that attention. And, you know, you know, if you've seen weapons, it's not your typical Oscar fodder. I totally agree. And so I think then a year where they have 10 spots and there's the ability to go for something like um Blue Moon, which is you know, comfortably Oscar fodder, or something like Surrat, which isn't typically what Oscars go for, but has this, you know, such has appealed to so much uh people, so has had such a broad appeal among the industry, international and domestic. You know, um, I don't know why they would opt to go for a safer choice like weapons, yeah. Um, and even something safer like like like F1. Yeah. So I think it's between those two films, and I think it's hard to pick between the two. A part of me wants to say that I think it might be smart to kind of hedge your bets and go with Blue Moon for screenplay and the uh and the possibility that a land screenplay actor at Pick. Picture and go for Surrat for best picture and the possibility that it lands casting, score, sound, international film, and picture.
SPEAKER_02:To me, I think it's if you get your timing right, Surratt is potentially the best sound winner. And I like the winner for best sound being in the best picture lineup.
SPEAKER_01:I think that's a really good point. Um, and so I think we've discussed it, we've you know gone back and forth, and I think we've agreed that we are going to play Surratt in that last spot for Best Picture. Um, and in a way, it is weird to have four Neon films in Best Picture, of course, that's obvious, and so many foreign films. But I think when we look back at this year, we'll see that it was a very special year where Neon was able to get four films into foreign language films, and those four films were so beloved that they landed in Best Picture as well. Right. Um, so I think we're looking at a very unique special year. Who knows if it's you know the beginning of things to come or not? But in this particular year, I think that's what the that's what the cards are reading.
SPEAKER_02:Yeah, I agree.
SPEAKER_01:So in in uh conclusion, our picks for Best Picture are one battle after another, Sinners, Hamnet, Mighty Supreme, Frankenstein, Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, It Was Just An Accident, Train Dreams, and Surratt.
SPEAKER_02:All right, um, and so that concludes um this rundown of our predictions, our our final Oscar predictions um for the announcement for Oscar nominations coming up soon. Um, that'll be on Thursday. Catch up with us next week as we recap the results of that and we break down surprises and we analyze how many we got right, and we talk about the next phase, which is who's actually going to uh win the Academy Award.
SPEAKER_01:Right. And um, it's been really fun to dissect this first phase of the Academy Awards with you all. You know, as we said, predicting the nominees is the funnest part. Yeah. Predicting the winners is a little more, it's a little less fun, it's a little bit more obvious. Yes. This is, I think, where you got to be most creative, where you got to be most uh on top of your game. And uh, we look forward to seeing how many we got right or wrong. Keep a lookout on our website and especially our Twitter where we'll be recapping our predictions for all the categories. Um, and we wanted to do something really cool before we sign off, and it's that uh after going through all the categories, these are the films that we're predicting to get multiple nominations and how many we're predicting. Um we've discussed it, Joseph and I, and we are of the opinion that both one battle after another and Sinners will be uh will make history and they'll both get 14 nominations. Um I'll give the caveat that we're not quite sure yet what that extra category is going to be for one battle after another. It could be supporting actress, it could be a surprise costume design nomination for Colleen Atwood, it could be a makeup uh or a hairstyling nomination, but right now we've got one battle at 13 plus one of those, 14, Sinners for 14, next up Frankenstein with nine, Hamnet with nine, Marty Supreme with eight, and Sentimental Value with eight, Surratt with five. It was just an accident with four Train Dreams with four, the Secret Agent with three, F1 with three, Wicked for Good with three, Avatar Fire and Ash, with two Blue Moon, with two Pagonia with two, and K-pop Demon Hunters with two.
SPEAKER_02:Um if uh one bet after another and Sinners can both score fourteen, I believe that would be the first time in history that we have that. Remember, 14 is the cap the cap, the most nominated film of the year, and that's a title shared by Lala Land and Ben Hur and Eve. And if those nominations just inch a little bit upward for either of those films, we could be seeing history and seeing a film with more than 14 nominations. So keep an eye out for that. That could be fun. That would be crazy. Um, and as you can see, after that, because those two films are sucking up so much air in the room, it was very difficult to come up with films that were in the double digits. Um, if there is another film that's in the double digits, you should probably imagine that that's probably the third, the film third in line to walk out with Best Picture. We'll see if anyone manages it.
SPEAKER_01:Absolutely. And so we'll see how money we got right. Uh, we'll be posting what our Go Derby results were when we get them. And uh it's been great going through all these uh categories with you. And again, it's taken a while, but hopefully you've enjoyed the in-depth analysis.
SPEAKER_02:Right. And uh we'll see you on the other side. Um, thank you for joining us. Um, I'm Joseph.
SPEAKER_01:And I'm Jules, and as always, it's been a pleasure.
SPEAKER_02:If you've been enjoying the Academy Anonymous podcast and want to support the work we're doing, there's a voluntary support link in the show notes. Totally optional. Just a way to help us keep the podcast going. Thank you for listening.
SPEAKER_01:The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP calling forward slash forward slash Creative Commons dot org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.
SPEAKER_02:Disclaimer. The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, I think.