Oscar Season 2025-2026: Oscar Voting Begins; Recapping Winners from the DGA, PGA, BAFTA and Screen Actors Guild

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On this episode of ACADEMY ANONYMOUS:

• Final Oscar voting begins!
• A24, Josh Safdie and Timothée Chalamet are box-office gold with MARTY SUPREME
• Paul Thomas Anderson wins first career Directors Guild of America award for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
• ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER bests box-office behemoth SINNERS at the Producers Guild of America awards
• Best Picture rivals ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and SINNERS share the stage at ACE Eddie awards for Best Film Editing
• SINNERS capitalizes on ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER snub to win highest honor from Casting Society
• Netflix and TRAIN DREAMS dominate the Independent Spirit Awards, but likely too small to make a dent at the Oscars
• ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER takes home 6 BAFTA awards including Best Picture, Best Director and Best Cinematography
• Wunmi Mosaku finally gets invited on stage for SINNERS with BAFTA Best Supporting Actress win
• Sean Penn surprises Stellan Skarsgård and SENTIMENTAL VALUE with Supporting Actor win at BAFTA
• How Timothée Chalamet and MARTY SUPREME shutout at BAFTA spells trouble at the Oscars
• KPOP DEMON HUNTERS loses BAFTA nomination, but still steals spotlight on BAFTA night
• SINNERS and Michael B. Jordan surge in Best Picture and Best Actor after electric reception at the Screen Actors Guild awards
• Sean Penn muscles his way into frontrunner status with SAG victory
• Veteran actor Amy Madigan celebrated by her peers for surprise WEAPONS role, destined to duel Wunmi Mosaku for Best Supporting Actress
• MARTY SUPREME scores 0 (again) at the SAG awards

Transcript

SPEAKER_02 0:14

Hey, listeners, and welcome to a new episode of the Academy Anonymous podcast, where we are covering um the final few weeks on the road to the Oscars 2026. Um, as always, I'm your co-host Joseph, and I'm here with I'm Jules.

SPEAKER_03 0:30

And as always, um uh check out our website, framesandflicker.com and our Twitter at Academy Anon. Both of those are listed on the uh cover art for the podcast. Um, and uh we know we've been MIA for a while. Um, as you guys know, you know, we work in the industry and we were taking a big work trip. Um, so we've been a little bit missing in action, and we're eager to get back and finish this race, you know, as as well as we can. Yeah. Uh kind of taking uh the bellwether of what's going on. Exactly. Um, there's been a lot that's going on, and it feels like it's just a tiny little sprint to the end now. Um uh because we've been out of town, we haven't been uh had a chance to update our charts. Hopefully that will change in the next few days. If you guys want to check that out, our prediction charts, we'll where we'll be listing all the uh awards that uh all these uh filmmakers and films are winning. So make sure to keep an eye out for that.

SPEAKER_02 1:25

That's on our website, uh framstonflicker.com. Um, so excuse the hiatus. Um, but a lot of things have happened. We're gonna try to cover, I think, what has developed over the past couple of weeks. Listen, we're about two weeks away uh till Oscar winners, March 15, right? About 15 days. Um, so we're very much at the very final sprint of this whole award season, which has felt particularly long. You know, as we speak, we're you know, at the cusp of seeing what the blowback is of the entire Netflix Paramount Warner Brothers deal. Warner Brothers, you know, very much set for an excellent Oscars haul on March 15. Um, but so let's go over some current events um and just set up the stage for what is the final 15 days. And, you know, let's also say that, you know, keep an eye on the episodes because we are getting ready to do our final predictions, final predictions coming up, um, might split it in two. Uh, we'll have a discussion on that. We'll have that posted certainly before the Oscars so you have an idea, and so you can put in your awards pool. I think we've been doing pretty good so far this season. Yeah, and I think it's interesting because this last couple of weeks have started to break into a sort of way that we had thought, hey, maybe there's something here. And as we go through the uh most recent events, we'll start highlighting what that is. I want to start by saying before we dig too deep into the awards stuff, it's been a very tough beginning of the year as film fans, as people in the film industries, as as as film lovers, um, like I'm sure all the listeners are, um, to see so many beloved artists uh pass away. And so we just want to acknowledge the amazing work and career and and share our love with um the inconquerable Catherine O'Hara. Absolutely. Um who devastated who just had just a tremendous filmography.

SPEAKER_03 3:20

Um and such an incredible actor, such a genius of comedy, and such an incredibly dramatic actress as well. Um, and and to see her have this sort of late surge um in her you know late career and have it cut short is just so devastating. Yeah, it was absolutely shocking and devastating.

SPEAKER_02 3:40

But she absolutely leaves a lasting legacy of which, unfortunately, and very much to it's you know the tarnish of the legacy of the Oscar. She never got an iron for an Oscar, and she was incredible in so many movies. Um, she's incredible in Home Alone, she was incredible in for your consideration. If you're someone who loves, you know, discussing Oscars, go and put for your consideration on. And she gave an amazing performance in that after hours. She's just an incredible actor. Um, she will be missed in every every Christopher Guest film. Yeah, I'm still suffering. It'll still suffer. It's gonna be a huge gap.

SPEAKER_03 4:13

Such a huge loss for us.

SPEAKER_02 4:15

I mean, and then we go from that to we have the loss of Robert Duvall, which is who is an absolute legend in the industry. Yeah, um, so incredibly accomplished, so incredibly diverse, an Oscar winner for Tender Mercies. Um, only won, I believe, one Oscar, which is kind of weird for like the breadth of his work, you know, as a leading man, as a supporting actor, you know, across genres and across projects, you know, studio projects, independent projects. And uh his last nomination was for the judge. The judge 2014. 2014 supporting actor. Um, but he's just an incredible, incredible performer, and certainly like one of the um sort of poster kids for you know 70s American cinema. Absolutely, right? So that's another huge devastating loss. Um, he's someone who you know barely got their flowers from the Oscars really was a documentarian Frederick Wiseman. Yes, passed away, and he is again just a filmmaker. Yeah, just like a titan of American documentary film. Absolutely. And like certainly like sort of a maverick in terms of like, I'm not gonna cut my film to any specific duration. It's about you know just spending the time exploring this thing, sort of a fly in the wall aesthetic. Um, he was a staple of the New York Film Festival, and so I know that he will be missed, certainly missed at Lake and Center. Um, so that that's another huge loss we had. Yeah, uh Robert Carradine from the esteemed Carradine families passed away. Tom Noonan passed away. Yeah, Tom Noonan. If you're familiar with the work of Charlie Kaufman, you're gonna recognize him, right? He was uh a voice actor on Anna Molisa.

SPEAKER_03 5:48

He was also in Senecting New York.

SPEAKER_02 5:51

Remember, he had that wonderful part in Senec New York, and then some people are gonna remember him from his sort of um standout part in uh Manhunter, I believe, um, from Michael Mann. And he was just an incredibly diverse actor, and he was also, I will say, an incredibly diverse um artist because he directed really interesting film uh in the 90s, um, I think on nominated for Independent Spirit Award. Fantastic film, and so that's another, another big loss. Yeah, um, and uh uh young James Vanderbeek um, you know, passed away certainly before his time. Yes, um, there's been a lot of coverage on that, and you know, people will remember him for Dawson's Creek, but certainly showed up in several films, and then Eric Dane also passed away recently, and again, we'll be remembered for his work on, for example, Grey's Anatomy, but most recently he was on uh the film Americana, which went to South by Southwest. Um, and so it's just been a tough start of the year so far, and we're entering March.

SPEAKER_03 6:45

Yeah, very tragic, especially when so many of these incredible artists, you know, have passed from you know more unfortunate or tragic circumstances, certainly way before their time. Right. Um, and in some cases at the cusp of their, you know, peak of their powers. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So um, yeah, it's been pretty devastating.

SPEAKER_02 7:04

I mean, and to say nothing also of you know, um, Jesse Jackson passed away and not necessarily tied to the film industry, but very much, you know, a subject of multiple documentaries, um, sort of was built into an aesthetic, I think, of a discussion that was going on maybe in black cinema in the 90s, um, which was you know extremely memorable now. Um, so I think that that's another major passing in terms of American culture. Yeah, um, not necessarily film-related, but there's you know, it's in the context, you know, um what what he was what he was incredibly influential public figure. Exactly. Um uh for cinema, for American cinema. Um, and so it's been a tough start of the year. Um, let's hope that we have better luck for the next um nine months, that it's it's gonna be a little bit easier. Um, but yeah, um, we just want to share our love and our thoughts with their friends, their families, and all the film fans out there. That's what I was gonna say from our point of view, certainly with all the fans who, again, their work just touched and influenced so much of our lives that I'm sure we we're all deeply, deeply grateful.

SPEAKER_03 8:08

Yeah, 100%. You know, it's hard to imagine, for example, for us, you know, who are such big, for example, Catherine O'Hara fans, to imagine a world, you know, and an industry without her. Um less bright industry, yeah. Less bright world, yes, and so um our thoughts, um, our condolences, and uh, we're all with you guys suffering through these losses. Yeah.

MARTY SUPREME breaks box-office records for A24, Safdies flirt with controversy

SPEAKER_02 8:31

All right, so let's go ahead and jump to a couple of current events. I guess I want to start out by saying something not awards related, but I think in our previous episode we left off, there was a little bit of controversy brewing on the Marty Supreme. Um, it does not seem to have boiled over too much. Well, I would say slight blowback, maybe.

SPEAKER_03 8:48

Well, I would say we haven't seen headline after headline about it, but I do think that it's sort of nudged its way a little bit into the narrative of that of that film. I think we'll get into it, but you know, the uh coming out empty at the BAFTA's, I think was very uh telling or could be very telling. And so in general, I just feel that the momentum that was there, you know, when the nominations were announced has been decreasing. Yeah. I feel like you can feel that. I think that's massively interesting.

SPEAKER_02 9:18

I think you're right. Maybe it's already started to pop its head in. Is it going to, you know, play a bigger hand um, you know, finally at the Oscars? We should have mentioned, I think, that voting, Oscar voting has, I believe, uh it's gonna start. I think it started uh yesterday or the day before yesterday. We're right into Oscar voting. And so these next few ceremonies, the ones that have passed, but certainly um then the couple weeks coming in, you know, all these headlines are going to have an effect. Um, but so it I I don't think it was a huge sort of debacle debacle like Emilia Perez was last year, but I think you're right, there might be a little bit of a tarnish. We'll see what the extent is. I want to say on the plus side, I think it's at 95 million, which is the most grossing film for A24. Yeah, um, and large part for Timothy Chalamet's um very public sort of marketing scheme for the film. Um, so congratulations for that. That may play a factor in terms of coming back from any sort of um bad press that it was having for that slight moment. Um, I I want to say, like a 95 million, it has outgrossed one battle after another by 20 million in the US. You know, so 75 mil for one battle after another in the US compared to 95 mil for A24. That's crazy for a Safety Brother film with Timothy Chalamet. So that's interesting. I I don't think that I still think that one battle has more, has it has accumulated more money globally, you know, not by much, but I do think that there's something to be said about how the domestic box office really rallied behind Marty. Um, granted, it did get that Christmas push, which which helps, you know. I mean, one battle coming out in what is usually a disastrous month for movies in September. Um, but so I wanted to say that, and with that, let's jump into some awards.

ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER cements frontrunner status with major DGA and PGA wins

SPEAKER_03 11:01

I think where should we start with I think we're gonna start with I think two awards that uh were not surprising in terms of the winner, um, and that is that Paul Thomas Anderson won uh his first DJ award um at the Director's Guild of America recently, and that just really recently one battle just won the PGA award. Um I think it's if you've been hearing us for any time whatsoever during the season, I think we've been very adamant that this is not a race. This is always going this was always gonna be one battle after another's to lose. Um it's certainly gonna win best picture. I think there's absolutely no question, no doubt about that. Um, and I think it's a win in those two uh and it's win there in the PGA and the DJ, I think solidifies that also.

SPEAKER_02 11:50

I think that's that's a good point. I mean, I have been of the opinion that the race would get closer between one battle and sinners, and I certainly think if there's any film that could upset one battle, it should be Sinners.

SPEAKER_03 12:00

Uh but I do feel like it's far away.

SPEAKER_02 12:02

I I do wonder, I still I know that on paper it seems like it's far away, but there's something to be said about in all these other places where One Battle is winning for the most part, it's because it's the most nominated film. That title was already taken away from it at the Oscars. Right, right. When it could have been the most nominated film, right? But very clearly more members voted for Sinners.

SPEAKER_03 12:26

Well, but I also think I also I will also say that, you know, Sinners, because of its period piece detail, kind of lended itself more to, you know, One Battle could never get a visual effects nomination. You're right, you know, you're right and and and and one battle could never, well, I guess it could have possibly gotten a makeup nomination. But I'm just saying, you know, uh even One Battle is surprised in getting a production design nomination.

SPEAKER_02 12:50

But I guess if they really loved it that much, they could have given it the costume design nomination. And again, if Sinners was maybe a little bit weaker, it could have missed that visual effects nomination. So I I I agree with you. I think that one battle is still in you know the driver's seat. But I am saying that uh its toughest day uh was always going to be at the Oscars. Because at the Oscars, it's always going to end up having to fight the most nominated film. So we'll I we'll see if that comes into fruition. But I think you're right with the DJA win and the PGA win, one bad after another, certainly in the driver's seat. Um, you know, it's not always that they coincide, right? The PGA and the DJA win. Um I I believe that Enora did get um both wins.

SPEAKER_03 13:37

They did get both, but uh if I'm not mistaken, didn't boyhood win both? No, no, I actually lost a DJA.

SPEAKER_02 13:44

Yeah, I boyhood, I believe, lost both to Birdman. Yeah, but we are on the Nora winning both, and Oppenheimer um won both. Um, and so there may be, I agree, a little bit of a consensus forming. Um, so those are two good wins. I also mentioned at the PGA awards, K-pop Demon Hunters won on the animated side, which is um pretty important because it got snuffed from BAFTA, even though I don't think it was a terrible BAFTA night for K-pop, and we'll talk about that when we talk about BAFTA. Um, but so yeah, so two really big awards already in the pocket for uh one battle after another in terms of guilds. So where do we go to next?

SPEAKER_03 14:19

Um, let's see, why don't we go through some uh periphery awards that just happened recently? The Ace, the

Warner Bros. doubles up editing wins for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER and SINNERS at the ACE Eddie Awards

SPEAKER_03 14:26

Ace gave away their the for the for editors, right?

SPEAKER_02 14:28

Gave away their their winners, right? And so again, another award going to one battle after another on the comedy side, and then sinners on the drama side. And again, it's again setting the stage for what is going to be a two-person fight, if anything, and best picture. I will say there has been some talk, you know, certainly after nominations, before nominations, um, about the whole F1 factor and you know, can't F1 somehow squeak out a win for editing? Oh, you know, because it is the the car movie, yeah. Whatever. Um I don't I feel like the momentum is on one battle side for that for sure. I agree. I hope so. Yeah, I hope that F1 does not win that. Um but so yes, you saw the two best picture favorites pick up the the big awards at the ace eddy,

SINNERS dodges ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER at the Casting Society Awards

SPEAKER_02 15:13

and then there was the casting society, yes, which I thought was very interesting.

SPEAKER_03 15:17

Yes, it was because it was one ceremony where one battle did not do well, yes, and so I believe it's the Artois Award.

SPEAKER_02 15:25

Um, and so winners included on the low budget side, sorry baby, which was nice to see. On the uh independence side, Sentimental Value was able to beat out of a movie like, for example, Blue Moon or Train Dreams. That's pretty interesting. Um, and then on the big budget comedy side, you had Jake Kelly win, which is to me was interesting only because um casting director Nina Gold was nominated twice, so for Jake Kelly and for Hamnet. And she got an Oscar nomination for Hamnet, right? And so she doesn't walk away from the casting society awards without a win. She gets she just gets the win for Jake Kelly. The film that does not have a shot, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 16:03

Well, she's a very revered.

SPEAKER_02 16:04

That's what I'm saying. She's so revered that she can still get the win for Jay Kelly, even though it's not even competing for an Oscar. Um, granted, no one in that category was competing for an Oscar. So on the big budget drama side, and this is where it's I think most um important to focus, Sinners won, Francine Mazler. Um and uh it was able to beat out the best picture nominees Hamnet, Mari Supreme, Frankenstein, F1, Bugonia, all best picture nominees I like I said. Um, but one movie, as you said, not included was one battle after another. So does that possibly set us up for um a little bit of a dog fight in the casting category, the brand new, the inaugural casting category at the academy? Yeah, right. Um it's it's and this conversation, I think we can revisit it because it's gonna be amplified when we talk about BAFTA, right? Um, but so yes, Sinners walks away here, not a surprise, but again, it did not face its biggest adversary, right? One battle. Right, right.

SPEAKER_03 17:05

Um, so then what award show should we jump

Netflix's TRAIN DREAMS is king of the indies at the Independent Spirit Awards

SPEAKER_03 17:08

to next? And then let's talk briefly about the independent spirit awards, which also aired uh rather recently, maybe a couple weeks ago. Yep. Um not a lot of surprises there. Obviously, what tends to happen, unfortunately, with um the independent spirit awards and and we're members is that the uh films that end up winning are the films that are closest to Oscar recognition. So technically in the best picture five, that was Train Dreams. Um and so there was a lot of love for Train Dreams, which picked up and director. Best picture, best director, best cinema. Yeah. Um and so uh not very not a big surprise that Train Dreams won that award. Um, I do think that that it's sort of uh as far as it'll go in terms of this award season, as you know, in terms of big prizes that it wins. So it was nice to see them, you know, have that moment. Um it certainly, I think we talked about it.

SPEAKER_02 18:02

Don't you think it sort of paints the idea that the independent sector of the industry, their big sort of the big movie that they want to champion is train dreams, right? Usually the movie that wins this award is the movie that traditionally this sector champions and best picture nomination, and we saw that happen with train dreams scoring four Oscar nominations. I think what's kind of interesting here to talk about is how important is that vote gonna be anyway. Because when you talk about these these uh industry people who very clearly uh like train dreams, they they like how it paints independent film in America and the US. Um, they're they want to champion it. They're also very much industry members who are likely gonna vote in various categories for sinners and one bad off or another, because Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson are very much tied into sort of the independent industry, even if they're not making quote unquote independent films or films that qualify for these awards, they are the type of films that these that independent artists in the US like to champion.

SPEAKER_03 19:04

You know what I mean? Right, but I also think there's something interesting happening this year in that it feels maybe because of where we're at as a country, as an industry, it feels that the bulk of the attention is for these bigger budgeted mainstream films and much less for independent films. I think you see that when the top five films line for the for the uh independent spirit award, you know, only one of them really is has a realistic chance of even you know placing because only one of them is in the best picture five and best picture ten for the academy, train dreams. Or was even close, right? Yeah, exactly. And even train dreams is like number eight. You know, you have these bigger budgeted films, um, whether it be you know uh huge films like Sinners of One Battle or films that are still bigger budgeted, they don't fit in the independent space, but they're also not as big as those two other films like Hamnet, Marty Supreme. Um, and then you have a uh a slew of foreign films that people are passionate about. So really the quote unquote um uh independent pick this year is really down the line. It's really number eight at best.

SPEAKER_02 20:11

It's it's not the same. I think what you're trying to say is that there isn't as much focus on it, for example, in the time that we're living as there was, for example, in 2015, 2016, right? Remember when you had 2016 Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, all right.

SPEAKER_03 20:24

No, but even last year, Nora was you know uh the consensus pick for the industry, but also for the independent community. We don't have that this year. This year, the bulk of the attention has been for these bigger budgeted films and for foreign films, right? And so I find that interesting, and I think I can't help but feel that that has to be an uh a consequence or an effect, you know, reflecting the kind of time that we're living in.

SPEAKER_02 20:50

So you think maybe it's emblematic of the fact that like these quote unquote bigger budget movies that don't qualify as these small indies anymore, but are not these ginormous tent poles and are very much artistic artist driven. That there's uh maybe a focus in the industry and saying that that sort of film is in trouble and runs the danger of being extinct, you know, maybe certainly with the support of places like Warner Brothers, for example. Right. And so it's kind of important that we support that kind of well no, I think that's true.

SPEAKER_03 21:22

I think I'm just I think that's very true, but I think what I'm pointing out to is just how strange it is to have a year where the top independent pick is not anywhere near a possible best picture winner. It's not a top five pick, it's not a top six, seven, yeah. And and I think that that's reflected in the nominations because the films that have the most nominations are not independent films. Right. You know, and and so I think in a way this year we saw a moving away from the independent film community in terms of the films we were most quote unquote passionate about for the academy, I guess. I or or when I when I'm speaking, I guess, in terms of the academy members, not as a whole. Um, you know, the films that we had. That people that were in the independent sector that people were very passionate about, whether that be Train Dreams or Sorry Baby, or If I Had Legs, I'd kick you, um, uh, or or a slew of other independent films. None of them really were able to, you know, capitalize into a top five contender for best picture.

SPEAKER_02 22:19

I think that's an excellent point.

SPEAKER_03 22:20

You know, and last year we didn't see that. Last year, I think we saw ANORA had the best of both worlds and had mainstream success, it had independent success, international success, international success. Um, this year it feels very much like the mainstream populist films won. You know, have they kind of won that war in a way, even though I hate to say populist because I think certainly One Bad After Another is an incredible film, my favorite film of the year.

SPEAKER_02 22:49

Right.

SPEAKER_03 22:50

Um, and Sinners is, you know, much more than just a populist film as well.

SPEAKER_02 22:53

But studio-backed movies.

SPEAKER_03 22:54

Yes, exactly, with with these huge budgets and these huge campaigns. Um, so I I find that interesting, and I wonder if that's the direction that we're going in as a reflection of everything that's going on in the industry at the moment.

SPEAKER_02 23:09

I think that's an excellent point, and I think that's something for us to to dig into possibly more next year. Um, you're right though, the overlap between the independent spirit awards this year and the Oscars is so marginal. Um, so that is certainly noteworthy.

SPEAKER_03 23:23

Um, but the big winner was was Train Dreams uh Rose Byrne got a chance to go on get on stage finally for I feel like, and you know, we've said this, the Jesse Buckley win for best actress is probably the easiest race to call this year. So this will be Rose Byrne's one of the last awards that I think Rose Byrne will get for if I had legs, I'd kick you. Some people, you know, I I feel like Rose Byrne and A24 have to be incredibly happy of how far she's come. You know, she ended up nabbing all four, you know. Uh she got the Globe, the SAG, the BAFTA. Yeah. Um, so I think there's uh a lot of people in this uh filmmaking community that want to see her have this moment. Um, it's a great performance that deserves all the recognition, but I do feel like you know, she's very far from Jesse Buckley. So this was really the last award almost that she could win. Yeah, exactly.

SPEAKER_02 24:14

No, that's an excellent point. Um, I will say if a victor got a chance to get on stage for a screenplay award for Sorry Baby, which was nice to see.

SPEAKER_03 24:20

Yeah, Lurker was one of my favorite films last year, and I won both the first feature and the first screenplay award.

SPEAKER_02 24:26

Right. Um, sorry baby maybe came close to uh a nomination at the end, but it but it's great to see her accept this. Two awards that I do want to talk about briefly, because I feel like these two categories, I don't know, you tell me, but in the closing few days, closing weeks of this of this year's Oscar campaign, I wonder if they're getting a little a little tighter. And the first one is the category of international film. So the Independent Spirit Awards went for the secret agent, yeah. Um, which has been pretty consistent, right? But we're gonna we're gonna talk a little, I think, um, in a little bit about what happened at BAFTA, which could be interesting. And then the other category that maybe we can talk about just a tiny bit now, um, is documentary went to the perfect neighbor, right? Which has felt sort of like a safe pick all year, but something interesting ends up happening at BAFTA too, yeah. Um, on top of the idea that Gita is a double nominee this year, yeah, right. And so certainly you see what I think is the two favorites in this race, right? Just like from a numbers point of view, the secret agent for international film and the perfect neighbor for documentary. But I want to say that in these closing days of the of the race, this is gonna get really, really tight between who's gonna win this. Yeah, I agree. Um, I agree. Yeah. Uh so with that, I don't know if you want to jump to um BAFTA.

BAFTA dooms MARTY SUPREME as Robert Aramayo and I SWEAR spoil Timothée Chalamet Best Actor bid

SPEAKER_02 25:52

Yeah, let's do that.

SPEAKER_03 25:52

I think there's a lot to talk about BAFTA because you know, as everyone knows, there's overlap between the BAFTA and the academy. But in terms of membership. But it wasn't nominated for that many to begin with. And it was the most nominated film at the academy. When we have a year where Sinners and One Battle and a film like Handed and Marty Supreme at BAFTA were among the most nominated films, and they're among the most nominated films at the Academy. Expect to see certain surprises that we saw at BAFTA to start repeating, and I think it's very, very telling. All right. Um, so let's start unpacking this. Um, where do you want to start? Well, let why don't we start with um the very interesting statistic that uh a film that walks away with zero wins at BAFTA, despite being heavily nominated, um that does not bode well for the academy. I love it.

SPEAKER_02 27:05

So you want to start with the biggest loser at BAFTA. And so the biggest loser at BAFTA was none other than A24's Marty Supreme, which is a best picture nominee and was nominated, I believe, 11 times. And so it tied Hamnet for the third most nominations, and it you know only tied itself as most nominations and least amount of wins. Um, and so what you're saying is um historically, a film that does that poorly at BAFTA that is a best picture nominee several nominations and scores zero very often does not end up walking away with an award at the Academy Awards.

SPEAKER_03 27:53

And this is interesting because But it's important to know it's it is possible to win something at BAFTA and walk out with zero at the Academy. That's true, but we're saying the opposite. Yeah, if you win zero at BAFTA, you stand the pattern is you stand to win zero at the academy.

SPEAKER_02 28:09

And maybe if we hyper focus this a little bit more, the expectation was that Timothy Chalamet would win best actor at BAFTA. Certainly looked like Timothy Chalamet expected it, but I think most of the community expected it. He did not have a previous BAFTA win, right? He's a multiple nominee, right? And so I think the idea was that Timothy Chalamet was going to finally win a BAFTA on his way to an Oscar. Remember, Timothy Chalamet was always possibly going to have a little bit of trouble getting the SAG win because he's coming off the win for complete unknown. But being BAFTA-less could hopefully open up the path for him to win Best Actor. That did not happen. They actually went with, I believe, Richard Aramayo for I Swear, I swear. Um, which was kind of a surprise, but the room and the ceremony really showered a lot of love on that film.

SPEAKER_03 29:00

Yeah. Um, so but I do feel like it's important to not dismiss um Aramaio's win as being, oh well, it's BAFTA. It did the film did really well at BAFTA, it's beloved at BAFTA. Of course it was gonna win. Hold on, you know, the fact that Aramaio, who's not an incredibly well-known actor, can win in a race among the presumed favorite like Timothy Chalamet or even among the competition, I think bodes really poorly for Timothy Chalamet. I think it exposes significant cracks in his presumed favoriteness. Um and we're gonna be continuing to talk about this as we make the last final sprint to the awards. I think we're possibly in a place to get a surprising um result for best actor at the academy because there's a lot of factors here going, and so among them is um the fact that there might be some people who were turned off by the tactics that were used to market Marty Supreme and that Timothy Chalamet really kind of you know embraced. Um, unfortunately, I do think there is a bias in terms of his celebrity and his dating life. I do feel that there are people who feel that who look down upon that. Um you have also now a little bit of a tarnish on the Marty Supreme. Right, you have a little bit of the Marty Supreme tarnish. What was already an extraordinarily unlikable character, right? That's the and that's the other thing. Uh quote unquote unlikable characters, as interesting as they may be for all of us Cinephile fans, are not typically what's embraced by the Academy. Right. That's something else that I think we're gonna talk about when we talk about someone like Tana Taylor. You know, these characters, these characters that are very complicated and are, you know, uh not afraid to show their teeth. You know, unfortunately, the Academy likes to brand their winners. Every win is an endorsement, right? And they liked their winners to be more embraceable in a way. Um, so that was always something that was uh challenging for Timothy Chalamet anyway. So I think the fact that he lost this BAFTA, I think, is humongous.

SPEAKER_02 31:09

Throw into that the fact that he would be a very young winner at the Oscars. There's just a lot, it's a lot that he has to go up against.

SPEAKER_03 31:17

Right. I I know that people mention that it's sort of following in the footsteps a little bit. Um that basically that a win at the age of you know barely 30, you know, puts him in company uh with someone as enormous as Marlon Brando.

SPEAKER_01 31:33

Iconic, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 31:34

And so I think there are some people who are hesitant to do that, um, and to sort of put those two alongside each other at this very moment. Um, and especially for a film like Martin Supreme that might walk out empty-handed. I'm pretty sure Marlon Brando, when he won his Oscar, that film was the best picture winner, also. You know, his first Oscar was for On the Waterfront. Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 31:55

Um which was the best picture winner, as you said, but also a huge, a huge winner that year the Oscars.

SPEAKER_03 32:01

So, you know, I just don't know that there's a group that there's enough people that want to put those two alongside each other, like I said. And and I just think there's a lot of cracks in the quote unquote Timothy Chalamet game. Right. Um, and I think that not unlike when we saw um someone like uh Mikey Madison win at the BAFTAs, I think it's a telling moment. I think it's a telling moment for this lead actor race that Timothy Chalamet did not win.

SPEAKER_02 32:31

All right. I I think that you're pointing out to a pointing to a lot of really interesting things. I would just want to run a few numbers here. So Marty Supreme gets zero BAFTA wins after getting double-digit nominations, including Best Picture. The year before that, a complete unknown scored six BAFTA nominations, zero BAFTA wins on its way to zero Oscar wins, where it had more than six nominations at the Oscars, and Marty and excuse me, and Timothy Chalamagne was coming off a SAG win for playing Bob Dylan. Um the year before that, Killers of the Flower Moon got nine BAFTA nominations, including Best Picture, I believe. And um, it lost all those BAFTA nominations on its way to scoring 10 Oscar nominations, I believe, and getting zero again, including a loss for SAG winner Lily Gladstone. Yeah. Um uh then you look at a year like Don't Look Up, which got four nominations at the BAFTA, including Best Picture, on its way to getting zero Oscar wins. Uh 2020 had Trough Chicago 7 get a Best Picture nomination at BAFTA, three nominations, um, scored uh nothing at the Oscars. Um, Irishman is another double-digit movie, 10 BAFTA nominations. I think that's the last time they lose a double-digit movie other than Marty Supreme. Irishman, 10 BAFTA nominations, including Best Picture, no BAFTA wins on its way to no Oscar wins. And so the last film to get nominated at the BAFTA for Best Picture and lose every single BAFTA nomination it was up for and still recover to win at least one Academy Award was Moonlight. Right. And was able to get the win um for best picture, even and was also from 824.

SPEAKER_03 34:18

But I will also say a big um, you know, something at least to consider is number one, BAFTA doesn't have a great track record when it comes to films of people of color. Yes. Um and also Moonlight that year was only nominated for four. Yeah. It was only nominated for four.

SPEAKER_02 34:33

It was only nominated for fours, and and and including, I believe, just just to jump on that point for a second, it was nominated for four. And I don't think they listed Moonlight in the adapted screenplay category. So that's one easy win you could have given it at BAFTA, but it couldn't because it was competing in original, right? Whereas at the Oscars, they remember listed it and adapted, right?

SPEAKER_03 34:54

And so um I think that a Moonlight four nominated four nominations at BAFTA is different from a uh Marty Supreme 11 nominations.

SPEAKER_02 35:03

The Marty Supreme 11 is the most since and it surpasses the Irishman, right? Which ended up getting the zero BAFTA wins and ended up getting zero Oscar wins. And so our mind is saying, is did BAFTA put a path where Marty is going to be a big goose egg on Oscar now?

SPEAKER_03 35:23

I think it's revealing that it's that's where it stands in the race. You know, when you look at a film like Frankenstein, for example, I think it would be easy for that film to also walk out with Zoro, except that it's so tech heavy that it stands to win at least those three techs, right? Costume, production design, and makeup. Yeah. Um, if not, we might be having the same uh scenario with Frankenstein. Marty Supreme just doesn't really stand out enough in any one race, right? And the only one that it can, which is actor, is problematic. Right.

SPEAKER_02 35:55

Actor is problematic, as you said. One could have made the argument that had the movie been positioned better, I certainly believe this. Had the movie been positioned better, had you avoided some of the pitfalls of the discussion that occurred with the slight controversy, could you have positioned it better in the original screenplay category? Right? When you have sentimental value, it's just lacking steam, and it seems like everyone wants to go ahead and reward Ryan Kugler for what is traditionally not, you know, yeah, the most conventional screenplay movie, right? Because of the nature of the movie it is. Could there have been possibly earlier, had you played your cards better, could you have maybe placed Marty in a better spot for the screenplay category? Maybe. Yeah, maybe that could have been a win for it. Maybe. Um, but I I agree with you. I think it doesn't help that Marty is truly only competitive in that one category. Whereas, for example, I thought a complete unknown certainly was a strong competitor for Best Actor for Timothy Chalamet. And I didn't think it was a bad spoiler for like the sound category, you know. Um, but every other category that Marty's in, as you said, feels far. It feels like the award for Marty was the nomination. And so it begs the question. At the end of the night on the Oscars, were the how many nominations did it get? The Oscars? Like I think nine. Was it nine? Nine. Are the nine nominations for the A24 95 million dollar movie that doesn't say a whole hell of a lot about you know an important issue or about visibility? Is that enough of an award for a first time SAFT nomination? Nine nominations, that is that is the award, you know.

SPEAKER_03 37:32

Yeah, certainly that that's the path that I think that you know uh the the temperature is paving. Right. Um, I will say some of the other numbers we went through. Carol received nine nominations at BAFTA, but it only received six, it didn't even get nominated for best picture at the academy. Right. The imitation game did walk out empty-handed and at least won the screenplay category at the Oscars. BAFTA really broke for the year of everything that year instead of imitation game. But then uh this is an interesting one. Zero Dark 30 walked out zero with five nominations from BAFTA at I at the Oscars. It did win one Oscar for sound with a tie. But but I also I guess what I'm trying to point out is that that was an underperformance. So my point is that it reflected what ended up being true anyway, which is that even if it won sound in a tie, right, you know, it was setting, it was set up to be an underperforming night for them. Yeah, I think that's what I think um the BAFTA is revealing about Marty Supreme, it should be an underwhelming night for them.

SPEAKER_02 38:30

It's almost like after the BAFTA gives you the big zero, it's can you survive to at least one win, which is what we're discussing.

SPEAKER_03 38:38

But I'm not sure that the one win you could possibly survive could be the biggest win. Possibly. An acting one.

SPEAKER_02 38:45

It's it's possible. I mean, like I said, the only film to do better than just surviving to a win was Moonlight. And again, it had a lot of large cultural, social, industry sentiment behind it. Um, keep in mind, they read the damn the wrong damn name off the envelope right here. So, like, yes, it's possible, but when Moonlight staged that in such a major way, and the other films are imitation game is able to squeak out with a screenplay win, and Zero Dark 30 can squeak out a sound editing win in a tie. I think what we're saying is, can you survive to a best actor win? Right, especially with all these other elements that we're saying sort of clouding the ether as to how excited voters are going to be about that.

SPEAKER_03 39:32

Exactly. And then I think I want to mention two other before we go uh to more analysis, two other acting wins that I think are very telling. And we'll start with the easier one, or maybe not easier one,

SINNERS and Wunmi Mosaku rise; SENTIMENTAL VALUE and Stellan Skarsgård fall flat

SPEAKER_03 39:44

but we'll start with supporting actor, and that Stan Skarsgard did not win, which I thought was very, very, very surprising. Which no, I mean he was the favorite. Yeah, he was the favorite. Instead, Sean Penn won um for one battle after another. I think it's worth mentioning that Sean Penn only has one BAFTA.

SPEAKER_02 40:03

No, this this was his oh, this is his one BAFTA, right?

SPEAKER_03 40:07

We talked about it. So that probably could have had a factor. I think it was a major factor, you know, in that this was the only BAFTA that he has. Um, I think it's interesting that overall they picked Sean Penn over someone like Benisio La Toro, and I think that's because Sean Penn has the more showier part than Benicious, even if technically Benicio would be my favorite performance of the film, and it was certainly what the the critics' favorite, it's not the showyest part, the showyest part belongs to Sean Penn, right, the antagonist. Um, there might be goodwill because of uh especially that BAFTAs you were mentioning to me the other day.

SPEAKER_02 40:43

Um advocate exactly for uh for the effort um in Ukraine and you know what that obviously means for the greater European Union, exactly.

SPEAKER_03 40:52

Um, so maybe that played a part. But the point is that you know we felt or we have been feeling that Stellan Skarskard should be the favorite in this race because of his veteran status. Yeah, because it's the kind of role that you that wins these kind of this that wins supporting actor, this aging director coming to terms with his you know fallibility as an actor, unless I mean as a father.

SPEAKER_02 41:16

Or maybe some voters sort of sick of that, like yeah, could be he's an aging director, and yeah, it's Garsgar.

SPEAKER_03 41:23

It could be, but I do think things change when we talk about the academy voter, because I Champagne has two Oscars. Yes.

SPEAKER_02 41:32

Um you're saying is that this win for Champagne does not necessarily position him in a very credible spot to win supporting action.

SPEAKER_03 41:41

Um exactly, and so uh I think the situation will be a little bit different at the um academy, um, but certainly it was surprising for him to lose um to win. No, a Stan Skarg to lose this. Um so that's one to keep an eye out for. I also feel that sentimental value should not go out empty-handed when it comes to the academy, it didn't go out empty-handed here either, except that the one award it won was foreign language film. And I know we'll get to that in a minute. And my point is that sentimental value, like the secret agent, should not go out empty-handed, because I think there's a lot of love for those films. So, in the event that the secret agent prevails in foreign language film as it is deemed right now the favorite, then this is the award that you can give sentimental value.

SPEAKER_02 42:30

You know, I I like a lot of what you're saying, but then I think about, for example, sometimes you're just in a film, not unlike Marty, I guess, that's well liked enough, but I wonder if it's loved enough.

SPEAKER_03 42:41

So I mean, I think it's I think it's nine nominations shows that it is very loved. You know what?

SPEAKER_02 42:46

And I think that's completely valid, but I had always been of the opinion that the place to award sentimental value, if it's not going to be in a very competitive international film category, would be something like screenplay. He's a writer-director, he is known for his writing, he writes rich, rich characters with um really precise conflict and in really specific situations and sometimes very imaginative and oftentimes reflective of the industry, and yet it feels very far winning that category.

SPEAKER_03 43:18

Right, but that's the thing. I I think that in a different scenario, it wouldn't be far. In a different scenario, it would be the winner. The reason that the waters get muddied is because we have Sinners in the middle, and that's obviously a very beloved film that stands, in our opinion, to not win best picture or best director. So it really stands to be the only way that you can award Ryan Kugler. Yeah. You and I are of the opinion, as as I think we've spoken to some people who feel the same, that the screenplay is actually one of the weakest parts of Sinners. Um and uh really you have a voting base voting for not just Ryan Kugler and their admiration for sinners, but also sort of the spectacle of it all and the you know uh constant. Of it all, more than necessarily the writing or the screenplay of it all. They're very much like awarding Ryan Kugler the visionary behind it, not just necessarily the writer. Right, exactly. And so I think that's one reason that you are not seeing sentimental value clean up in that category, and what makes it even more reason to have um it needs to have a win in its pocket. Well it needs to have something, and the best place you've got if you're not gonna give it foreign film is this supporting actors.

SPEAKER_02 44:28

What I would say to that is I well, I think that there's possibly a lot of validity to that, is are we possibly in store? Because I do think that the screenplay for sentimental value is very much what they would usually go for. Stan and Skarsgard is what they usually go for. Sentimental value is gonna be very difficult for it to leapfrog sinners for original screenplay. We're questioning about Stan Skarsgard. Are we really just possibly going to watch an Oscar ceremony unfold kind of like 2022 where it was very clear that the best film among the consensus was Everything Everywhere All At Once, and you I were you were either everything everywhere all at once or all quiet on the Western Front squeaking out a few categories. Are we about to see a ceremony where yeah, the nine nominations for Marty, that is the win. The nine nominations for sentimental value, that is the win. The four nominations for um you know F1 or Secret Age or Brigonia, that is the win. And so we're just gonna end up seeing the winner for every category is gonna be what my favorite film was. And so when you have a category of one battle for Sean, one battle for Benicio, Sentimental Value, Deroy Lindo is in that category now for Sinners. Is this category gonna be another one of another one of those? Well, the win's gonna go to either the one battle guys or the sinner guy, you know, the sinner's guy. It's not gonna go to sentimental value because for me, it's my fourth favorite film or my third favorite film on there. I mean, it could be seeing that.

SPEAKER_03 45:57

I mean, I think I think that's possible. I just think that on Oscar nomination morning, it became apparent that it's probably the preferred foreign film, you know, with nine nominations, it really overperformed. Add to that that all four actors got nominated besides not being nominated at all at the SAG. I think you have genuine love for this film and genuine goodwill post the worst person in the world. Um, I think it's a film that appeals to the European arthouse base as well as the American arthouse base. So I don't see a scenario where it walks out with zero. And I don't know that it's flashy enough for some to win foreign language film over a film like The Secret Agent. Um, but we could have a scenario where, for example, Wagner Mora wins Best Actor and Sentimental Value wins or foreign film. But what can happen is that either of those two films walks out zero. I really see that not happening. And like I said, there's a prime spot here because both Benicio Latoro already has an Oscar, Champagne has two, Jacob Alordi, the nomination is the the win, and Del Roy Lindo is a surprise. Um, and it's also not you know meaty enough for what they usually give this award to. So, really he's your best, he's the most obvious pick.

SPEAKER_02 47:10

Um now, on the downside to what you're saying, basically his campaign is over. Like it'll be Stan Skarsgard. If he is an Oscar winner, all he had on the road there was really the golden globe as far as telecast. The critic's choice went elsewhere, BAFTA went elsewhere, wasn't even nominated for a sag. And so that's not very often that that happens. That's right. That he that someone will go just from a golden globe, one golden globe, into a best supporting actor win or an acting win. That's a good point. That's not always that happens. And he may be able to do it, because again, not only everything that you said and everything you said about the movie, but also his longevity as an actor, right? And again, he spans he has he's worked in America, he's worked in the UK, he's worked, he's worked all over the place, and that maybe helps. But I will say it seemed to me like most people in that room at BAFTA were expecting Stan Skarsgard to get on stage, and he did not.

SPEAKER_03 48:05

Yeah, I agree. I think that's the one to watch out for. And then you and I were incredibly uh happy that Wumi Musaku won Best Supporting Actress. We have been on the Wonmi Musaku train forever. We um this is we thought that her time would come at the SAG, but it came at the BAFTA, which makes perfect sense. And for us, it has always made sense, given the competition, that Woonmi Musaku stands the best chance of winning this award because her two biggest competitors have enormous detractions, detractors, and that's you know, Tana Taylor technically, I mean, I mean, in my opinion, would be my pick personally, and she is uh one of the critics' favorite, if not the critic's favorite, um the top critics, um but her character is complex in a way that it's not the type of performance that they like to award. Remember, every win is an endorsement of a sort. Um most of the time. I think she's very handicapped also by the fact that she has very few credits. This is one of the first films that us many Academy members are seeing her for the first time. She's very young in her career. She's very young in her career. She comes from a background in music. Again, there's hesitation sometimes to give an artist that's just beginning their, you know, Oscar moment, especially if you, like I said, it's a it's a complicated character. I can think of Ariana DeBos most recently who did it, but you know, she doesn't necessarily come from a music background as much as a theater background.

SPEAKER_02 49:41

But she's also being hot by the iconic nature of the exactly.

SPEAKER_03 49:44

She's being greatly aided by the fact that she's playing Anita. Um, and so I really feel that there have always been these enormous holes in Tiana Taylor winning for one battle after another. Um, Amy Madigan is the film's only nomination for weapons, and that is certainly not the kind of performance that wins these awards. She'd be winning more than anything because of her veteran status. Right. But is that veteran status enough? Right. Um and again, she went without the BAFTA nomination. Right. She did not get she did not get the BAFTA nomination. And so, you know, her biggest attraction is again the role that she's playing, the movie that she's in, um, and uh being the film's only nomination. So, really, you're uh the the the perfect person to position for this award is Wumi Musaku because she is for many one of the most memorable parts of Sinners. Um, she's incredible in the film, she's a beacon of light and warmth in the film. You can help her ending. She she she appears in the ending in a very emotional moment. She has a very respectable filmography. She's worked in international projects, she's worked in American projects, she's uh a person of color who's established a very formable career. Yeah. Um, I just feel like it's the kind of quote unquote endorsement that they would flock to. Right. Um, Wuni Musaku winning for sinners.

SPEAKER_02 51:05

And so And we had maybe picked some of this up, remember, back in the Gotham's when the jury, a jury of you know, um industry artists and peers voted the supporting win and they gave it to Wuni Musaku. And we sort of said, yeah, she really fits that bill. Yeah. Right. Not just in terms of the character that she's playing, the movie that she's in, but also the kind of actor that she is and where she is in her career. You know what I mean?

SPEAKER_03 51:29

Yeah. And I feel that at BAFTA you could tell that people were genuinely happy to see her have that moment. She was very eloquent and she spoke lovely. Um, and it just feels like she's at a stage in her career where she's more ready for this award than Tiana Taylor is. You know, I just don't think they've seen enough yet of Tana Taylor to give her the Academy Award. Um, and Amy Madigan would make sense because she's a veteran, but I uh I don't think I don't see Aunt Gladys being an Oscar-winning role.

SPEAKER_02 51:59

I just don't know tough. As you said, it's tough, and it's tough for it's tough as the film's only nomination. Yeah. Um, I think that we had always said that the momentum would shift towards Wound Me, and I think we're starting to see that. Yeah. And so like she could not be peaking at a better time. Yeah. I also think we had this discussion, like, it's kind of interesting, where like giving sinners an acting award, I think makes a lot of sense. Yeah, exactly. But I also think, you know, of how circular these awards um races are. I mean, we're talking, we're what maybe two years, two, three years removed from when Angela Bassett was at one point considered a favorite to win for Ryan Kugler's Wakanda Forever, Black Panther 2. That's true. And so just I think there's this symmetry here of like getting now the supporting actress when to wound me for an original Ryan Kugler movie that maybe some voters are gonna like be aware of subconsciously. I didn't think about that. That's a great point. That could end up materializing here. And so we were we were quick to say that it could quickly break in her favor, and I think we're starting to see that.

SPEAKER_03 53:01

Yeah, I think that you know, when the nominations came out, you and I, and then we said it we said as much in our episodes, you know, watch how Wumi Musaku is in this to win this. And uh and we're seeing that play

SENTIMENTAL VALUE fends off THE SECRET AGENT for Foreign Film at BAFTA; THE PERFECT NEIGHBOR passed over

SPEAKER_03 53:12

out. Um, again, we mentioned foreign language film, the Sentimental Value won that award. That's a big one. That's a really big one because the last year that uh uh the BAFTA didn't correlate with the Oscar in terms of the win in this category um was for the handmaiden, I believe.

SPEAKER_02 53:31

Well, actually, that handmaiden was the last time before last year, right? Right, because the BAFTA ended up going to Emilia Perez, which is a top five film, right? Right. And everyone was still pegging Emilia Perez for the Oscar, but the campaign sort of imploded, right, which left an opening for Brazil, right? And I'm still here, right? Right. But before that, you're right, it was the handmaiden, right? Like in 2017, which wasn't even nominated for an Oscar. And I think the eventual Oscar winner that year, a fantastic woman, wasn't nominated for a BAFTA either. So you could quote it, you could you can sort of say that they were destined to diverge.

SPEAKER_00 54:04

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 54:04

So this year there's a lot of overlap, right? Sentimental one, but Secret Agent is a nominee, a BAFTA and an Oscar. Um, Jafar Panahi, it was just an accident as a nominee. Uh Surratt and I even think that they um the BAFTA nominee was also a job. So um BAFTA here has the five Oscar nominees for foreign film, it ended up breaking for sentimental value, as you said, right? Because it was it got so many BAFTA nominations, right? Um, the question is do you think it repeats it? And again, this kind of goes back to um what we were saying um about the secret agent winning the the award at independent spirit awards, right? So the momentum for it was you would think is for the secret agent. It has the Golden Globe win for international film, it has Independent Spirit Award win, it probably has the most critic mentions for international film. Um and yet BAFTA went with Norway for Sentimental Valley.

SPEAKER_03 55:01

I wonder if something that could play out at the Oscars is that since Brazil just won last year, if I'm still here, they might be more prepared to give it to someone else, another country. Interesting. So I think that's something to keep in mind as something that could play out uh in this in this race, but nonetheless, it was very important to see that sentimental value prevailed. There is a strong correlation between the BAFTA winner for foreign film and the Oscar winner as well.

SPEAKER_02 55:26

And obviously, it's it was the most um nominated of the foreign films at BAFTA, including a best picture nomination. It is the most nominated foreign film at the Oscars, including a best picture nomination. Secret Agent also has the best picture nomination. Um, you said it it's tough to imagine either going home empty. I'm gonna, you know, take a little caveat here and say between all this infighting of you know Norway getting nine nominations, including Best Picture, getting the BAFTA win for international film, and the secret agent being able to survive to four nominations at the Oscars, including Best Picture, but missing major nominations at BAFTA, missing the win for foreign film at BAFTA. I want to say that the door has not closed on a win for it, it was just an accident. Um, and for France. Because remember, France was the actual submitting country for Emilia Perez, who should have won last year before everything sort of, you know, before the sh the crap hit the fan, right? And so, like, look for France to try to exploit this little bit of a gap and make up that win from last year. But also, especially what's going on in current events. Exactly, everything that's going on in Iran right now. Um, Jafar Panah, everything that, you know, Jafar Panahi Panahi has been advocating right now, very much on the last leg of his little tour, um, you know, that has taken him away from Iran and very much going back to Iran as soon as he can. Um, watch out. The door is open here between a sentimental value is so handsomely nominated in all these other places, and maybe I'm gonna give it to San Skarsgard. Secret Agent was the best picture nominee, but I just gave it to Brazil. Watch out for a makeup for France here and for a win for Jafar Panahi and you know, a surrogate win for Iran.

SPEAKER_03 57:07

Yeah, I think that's that's a that's a very good point. And on this on a similar note, um, the BAFTA has a strong correlation between the BAFTA winner uh for documentary and the Oscar winner for documentary, and it's very interesting to see that Mr. Nobody against Putin won that award. Um and was able to beat the perfect neighbor. Yeah. Um, and then last year they went with uh the BAFTA went with Superman, Christopher Reefs, Christopher Reeve story, which wasn't even on for the Oscar. But before that, the last time that the BAFTA win for documentary diverged from the Oscars was uh American Factory 2019.

SPEAKER_02 57:39

Um which is kind of interesting in the sense that maybe the perfect neighbor isn't able to score the win at BAFTA because it's very much a US story versus Mr. Nobody Against Putin it can't have larger global ramifications. Um American Factory was still able to score that win at the Oscars, right? Um so I do think as we said, it's gonna be a little bit of a tight race between Mr. Nobody Against Putin and um Perfect Neighbor, especially because I think that that win for Mr. Nobody Against Putin has a lot to do with you know the state of the world that we're in in terms of how different uh nations are behaving, and I think there's also a lot of um support from the Danish uh government to get that movie made, and so there's a lot of I think um urgency amongst advocates of the movie to try to get the movie seen more broadly.

SPEAKER_03 58:33

Yes. Um, but again, you know, the perfect neighbor is also very timely and you know, in terms of the American zeitgeist, yeah. I think uh, you know, it it it still stands a very good chance prevailing here.

SPEAKER_02 58:45

We talked about though, and we'll talk about in our closing predictions about the whole double nomination, which is really interesting for Gita. Will that pop its head in? Maybe yeah if it's

Netflix's KPOP DEMON HUNTERS steals BAFTA spotlight; SINNERS stumbles in Cinematography; F1 surges in Sound

SPEAKER_02 58:53

possible.

SPEAKER_03 58:53

Uh for animated features, Utopia won.

SPEAKER_02 58:56

Which is actually not a big surprise. I will say Zootopia 1 did not win, it lost to Kubo, so Zootopia 2 finally won. I think the big story here was that K-pop Demon Hunters was not nominated, so it could not win, and the films to win the Oscar for animated feature are BAFTA nominees, and so that is gonna be the biggest hurdle for K-pop Demon Hunters on the plus side, right? K-pop Demon Hunters was still part of the ceremony. They made it a whole moment, a whole moment, they made it a whole moment. Netflix Netflix pulled enough strings, they had a whole performance, and so like is that enough to sort of say, yeah, there's still that this the lack of a BAFTA nomination is not going to stall K-pop Demon Hunters, right?

SPEAKER_03 59:40

Exactly. Um, very interesting win for cinematography that went to one battle after another. Yeah, the last time that the BAFTA winner for cinematography diverged from the Oscar winner was in 2020 for Nomad Land. The year before that, the last time it happened was in 2011 for The Artist, and then in 2010 for True Grit. Right. Um, so there's a very strong yeah, there's a very strong correlation. The win-for-one battle here is really cool. Um Michael Bowman, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:00:10

Right. I think we have to wait to see what happens with the guild. We're gonna have to wait to see what happens with the guild because I think four weeks ago I thought that this was gonna be an easy win for Autumn.

SPEAKER_03 1:00:21

You're right, and we talked about it. You know, this seemed in the bag for sinners, but as we've seen with, you know, uh the industry so far and some critic awards, it feels like it's not so in the bag for Autumn. Yeah. And you know, in in in many of those races, you know, the you know, voting bodies have preferred something like train dreams. And I wonder if when it comes to the Oscars, uh especially if train dreams is really liked by a certain sector, especially the independent community, that's really the that's really a place where you can give something to train dreams. You know, because you can't give it screenplay, you can't give it picture, and you can't get song as competitive as well. So really it's one of the uh awards, one of the the the categories that train dreams can actually win something.

SPEAKER_02 1:01:15

Right, because if if you're sort of stuck between something is turning off voters about sinners, right? And Michael Bowman, as an amazing job as he did, he doesn't have the filmography to sustain a win. You're right. Is this possibly just an easy spot to say, well, I love to train dreams, I want to give it something. I want to give it something. And this is what I got. Yeah, and maybe again it could be sort of like a film where it's like cinematography first, sort of like when you see one battle after another and you make a list of all the things you loved about it. Maybe cinematography is not one, two, or three. Right. And the same thing with sinners, maybe it's not one, two, or three. Right. But for train dreams, a lot of people might put that at number one. Yeah, I agree. For the the most memorable thing about the movie.

SPEAKER_03 1:01:57

I agree. Um, so you gotta watch out there. Yeah, 100% I agree. I think we're we're we're looking at a possible upset here. Um, and uh very interestingly, the BAFTA sound winner was F1 over something like Sinners, which I think I think bodes very well for something like F1 to win. A lot of it predicated on you know, race car driving, must have included a lot of sound there. So here it is. Uh so uh watch out for this to be the place where they give F1 something.

SPEAKER_02 1:02:31

Unless, again, we're saying it's a year where we're all gonna we're gonna be okay giving some movies nothing. I mean, we certainly are in agreement, for example, that Bogonio will not get any Oscar wins. Yeah, and so the question is do they really feel compelled to give F1 at least one win? Maybe and could have gotten more nominations, like it could have gotten that song nomination, didn't get it, but you're right. If if there it like sort of like train dreams again, if you loved it that much, and if there's one category where you said the three most memorable things about it, maybe sound is high enough.

SPEAKER_03 1:03:01

Well, I think there might be a a section of the academy who feels like they're kind of again, this is getting into the brain of an academy voter, which you know it's not a place you want to be in. But they might think, well, in giving sinners the best score, I'm kind of awarding it sort of soundscape in a way, so I don't have to give it score and sound.

SPEAKER_02 1:03:23

Yeah, very seldom, very seldom do they feel like didn't Black Panther do that? No, Black Panther did not win the sound categories. That's kind of interesting to me is that like Ryan Kugler has shown up, his films have shown up in this sound category before, and he hasn't won them yet. And that's why I thought like midway into the year, this should be an easy win for uh for Sinners. Um, but it seems like, as you said, sort of the late surge of oh, well there's a there was a race car movie and it did pretty well and it did well enough to even get a best picture nomination. If that sort of de facto, well, I guess the race car movie has to win sound if that's gonna end up happening.

SPEAKER_03 1:03:58

Yeah, I I think I think I think we're heading there for sure. Yeah. Um some some other interesting statistics we came up with. Um, that uh obviously one battle, won best picture and director, and screenplay of the BAFTA, and that's a very powerful trifecta. A film like The Artist won all three and went and uh went on to win best picture, the hurt locker went on to win best picture. So I feel there's very little room here, as we said at the top of the show, for one battle to lose. Right. Um, I think that's a done deal. Some other stats we looked at. Um uh BAFTA, best picture and director winners who went on to lose the Oscar for Best Picture. You had films like The Power of the Dog, which won Best Picture and Best Director at the BAFTA, 1917, Roma, La La Land, The Revenant, Boyhood.

SPEAKER_02 1:04:44

I and I think what's interesting about that list of movies that do well at BAFTA with picture and directing wins and fail to get the um best picture win um at the Oscars, um, and sometimes even the rector win. If you look at something like 1917, is that most of the time that's um preceded by a strong showing or a good showing by another film at the SAG Awards or a poor showing um of those films at the SAG Awards, for example, 1917 obviously did not do well at SAG, Roma didn't do well at SAG, Power of the Dog didn't do well at SAG. And so that really throws the spotlight at you know on the SAG Awards.

SAG Awards solidify Jessie Buckley, but craft chaos in other races

SPEAKER_03 1:05:22

Okay, and on that note, let's start talking about the SAGs, which uh well, now the actor awards, I guess. Um I'm gonna call them SAG. Um which uh just happened last night, and I feel like there's a lot to unpack in uh the you know quartet of winners that they selected.

SPEAKER_02 1:05:40

I mean, I I definitely think it was uh a night that shifted some things around, but it also is emblematic that um this is the kind of race this year where there are big cracks and craters and a lot of things, you know, that it's going to be what it seems like to me at least, it's gonna be hairline finishes in a lot of races. Right. Um, and I think why don't we maybe the smartest thing to do is let's start out with the race that is possibly least consequential, and that was um Jesse Buckley continues to walk, and so she won Best Actress at the SAG.

SPEAKER_03 1:06:12

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:06:12

Um as we mentioned before, she's gonna be the Oscar winner, so it's the easiest race to call this year. And so ever most people were predicting her. She won. It was a good speech, it was kind of brief. Um it was kind of brief. But so that race is you know, nothing has happened to that race, it's very much cemented still the way that we had sort of predicted.

SPEAKER_03 1:06:30

Um I will say I thought it was quite lovely that she took a moment to mention Emily Watson, who is one of our great actors, who certainly doesn't get enough flowers for her talent and um her work. And so it was nice to have a moment being you know, to have her spotlighted in in this uh televised ceremony, um, because I do feel that she has a very small part in Hamlet, but she does a really beautiful job. She's lovely, she has uh a couple scenes that I thought she she really nailed and were really resonant. Um, and it was just nice to see Emily Watson have a tiny piece of that big uh cake that is the success of Hamnet.

SPEAKER_02 1:07:07

I absolutely agree. I think at this point, the the biggest sort of question mark for me in terms of the best actress race is like how good can Jesse Buckley's speech be at the Oscars? Like, I have high hopes that I think of all the individuals who are still likely or possible to win or favored to win in their races, I don't think anyone's gonna come close to delivering as eloquent and heartfelt a speech as Jesse Buckley. So I'm kind of looking forward to that. Um the other thing that I think is kind of interesting is that as we mentioned, you know, with voting going on at the same time, Jesse Buckley's actually gonna open up a movie with her friend Mackie Gyllenhaal. And so it'll be sort of interesting to see that play out in the background, and so maybe we'll comment on that. Um, because you know, if the movie is a complete train wreck, which I hope it isn't, and I don't think it will be, but if it is a complete train wreck, it would not be the first film to take down a front runner. Um but it's we're we're we're we're searching for we're searching for stories here in the best actors for the world.

SPEAKER_03 1:08:09

Also, because it's also the success story of Hamnet, and it's really the award that you can give Hamnet because I just read today that it's you know really close to breaking 100 million worldwide. Wow, which is really impressive when you consider that I don't even think it broke 20 million in the States. I don't know about that. All I know is that right now I think it's at like 94 million um worldwide, global, right? And that's a very impressive feat, especially for a film that was made for like 35 million. Um, and so you know, the I just I guess I'm just implying that the train that is Hamnet is just too hard to stop. Right. And that uh I mean, even if I don't know the bright is the next Razzie Award winner, I don't think anything's taking down the hurricane that is Jesse Buckley and Hamnet. All right.

SPEAKER_02 1:08:54

Um no, I think you're you're probably right about that. Like I said, we're searching for stories here. Uh the otherwise you we're just waiting for Jesse Buckley to win the award.

Sean Penn claims second career SAG win for ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER

SPEAKER_02 1:09:02

Um okay, so then maybe the next best category to discuss is um one of the few categories at SAG that had some overlap um with BAFTA, um, kind of like Jesse Buckley, but is a race that remains undetermined, um, and that's best supporting actor. And so we saw Sean Penn repeat here um for a win for one battle after another, much like he did um at the BAFTA.

SPEAKER_03 1:09:28

Important to remind listeners that Stellan Skarsgard was not nominated here, neither was anybody from Sentimental Valley.

SPEAKER_02 1:09:34

Right. And so I will say, let's discuss the win for Sean Penn. You're right, let's set this up the right way. Sean Penn beat his co-star Benisha del Toro, and he beat Stellan Skarsgard at BAFTA among British voters, and then over at the SAG US Um acting base, he was able to beat again his co-star Benisha del Toro, and this time, um excuse me, but but this time um he did not have to face off against Stalin Skarsgaard. I think something that's also important to mention here is that on neither occasion did he beat Delroy Lindo. And also another important thing to talk about is that um this is Sean Penn's second SAG win, right? Right? He had one for Milk, and this is his uh first win supporting actor. It's a second win. He was snubbed for Mystic River in 2003 for Johnny Depp and Pirates of the Caribbean. Um he ended up winning the Oscar for that. And over at the BAFTA, he had never won. He had never won. And so we're on two times SAG nominee Sean Pen. I'm sorry, two times SAG winning Champagne, one time BAFTA winning Sean Penn. Can we really see a three-time Oscar winning Champagne this year?

unknown 1:10:47

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:10:47

And I think you're completely right. I think that this particular race is kind of tough because Stan Skarsgaard wasn't there. I still remain, we are still a little bit puzzled in that you know the the the miss for Sean Pen at the BAFTAs, I think is it can be quite telling because Stan Skarsgard was there and sentimental value was liked and he still won. Um it's a tough race, but I think we go down, we come back to the point that one battle has to win or should win at least one acting award. Because the trend has been that if you win best picture, at least you won, you know, an acting award, at least one. Um and if that holds true, I mean again, it's not it's not, you know, written in stone, but it's certainly the trend.

SPEAKER_02 1:11:34

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 1:11:36

Then, you know, you have three options to award one battle actor, supporting actor, and supporting actress. And you and I feel very iffy about Taylor Taylor prevailing and supporting actress, especially after losing both the BAFTA and now the SAG. So I don't think that's gonna go to Taylor and Taylor. Um, so you're really between actor and best supporting actor. Can Leo win his second? I mean, he hasn't gone up to accepting a speech uh speech and a televised uh award show just yet. He already has an Oscar. Do they want to give him one, you know, 10 years later, or they want to wait? I mean, everyone knows that Leo's gonna be back and back and back, right? And as it was, and we're gonna get into the best actor category, as it was very evident, you know, Michael B. Jordan had a lot of love in that room. Um, so I'm not even sure that you know what Leo's got is enough to to tower some over someone like Michael B. Jordan. Anyway, all that to say that, you know, if if we X the acting categories of actor and supporting actress, all you've got to give one battle is the supporting actor category for Sean Penn, who hasn't vote split it, as you mentioned, with Benicio del Toro. I think you were thinking that maybe there was a chance that Benicio could sneak in there. There is a disaward side. Right. There is a timeliness to his part, to his role. But again, I told you that it's just way too nuanced. It's not really what they go for. The Sean Penn performance is a much showier performance, um, somewhat antagonistic. I mean, obviously, the antagonist, the villain. Um, so you know, I'm not surprised that Benito didn't get up there, but I think that I think it means something that the vote splitting hasn't happened between the two of them and those two ceremonies.

SPEAKER_02 1:13:13

Right. And it's broken in favor of Sean. I I mean, we'll have to analyze this again um in the coming weeks. So um watch out for our final predictions. But one thing we'll have to sort of run the numbers on is especially in the supporting categories, whether that SAG and BAFTA, those wins, when those wins overlap, if that isn't a bit of a dagger, you know, a bit of a kiss of death in terms of you know beating out the rest of the competition. Um, and so Sean has that now. The issue that we really said that we were sort of highlighting is that Sean is so much further ahead at the Oscars than at either of these two ceremonies, and so winning three Oscars is a very precious thing, yeah. Right? Um, Danny DeLewis was able to do it, um, and he did it all in the lead acting category, which I think I think he's there by himself. You know, Jack Nicholson has a supporting actor win. So I think it does help for Sean, for example, that this would be his first win in supporting actor.

SPEAKER_01 1:14:08

Yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:14:09

Um but that being said, uh you have to wonder if they're gonna make if they're gonna if the academy voters are gonna be very excited to give Sean Penn a third win. And Sean Penn, you know, has a history of being a bit of a prickly character in and of himself uh um with the academy and with the industry, um, and that's not part of his charge. Yeah, you know, when he gave away his Oscars, right? And he's you know, he's had plenty of criticism on the ceremony in the past. Now I will say another interesting factor here, Sean Penn hasn't been on stage, and maybe that ends up playing out, yeah, right?

SPEAKER_03 1:14:52

As not having had a moment to capitalize on the moment, exactly. But I think he also brought up a very good point about Stan Skarsgaard earlier um when we were chatting, and that's that maybe we're assuming too much that Stan Skarsgard is a quote unquote super beloved actor. Certainly he's one, you know, one of our great actors who's been around for such a long time. It's crazy this is his first nomination. He's one of our, you know, um uh most prolific um veteran actors who works internationally and in American projects. Right. But maybe there's a reason why this is his first nomination in the seven, you know, when he's in his 70s. Um who knows how beloved an actor he is. Um, maybe not enough to sort of tower over someone like Sean Penn, possibly. And you brought up a really good point, you know. Um, we were talking about Emily Watson. Emily Watson has only been on for two Oscars and has never won. This is Stan Skarsgaard's first nomination. Is it make a lot of sense for Stan Skarsgard to walk out with a win? Emily Watson has yet to win. Yeah. Um, and they both had that very powerful moment with uh breaking the waves.

SPEAKER_00 1:16:02

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:16:03

Um uh I don't know. Maybe, maybe the loss at BAFTA is as much a you know pro Sean Penn vote as much as it is a, you know, I'm okay with Stan Skarsgaard. You know, I don't have to give him the award. Right. Um, but on paper, it is the performance and the role that typically wins this category. I I think that's completely valid, yeah. Right. And I think we can't argue that um, you know, sentimental value is liked, and it has four nominations, four acting nominations. Um, so I think that still bodes well for someone from that movie prevailing and obviously can only be in supporting actor. It's a it's a tough call.

SPEAKER_02 1:16:41

And then the other thing I'll say, just to extend the conversation a little bit more, is you know, DeRoy Lindo actually has not been nominated very much for this movie. He was able to get the Oscar nomination, but he has been on stage plenty. Yeah, right, and sort of a surrogate, you know, speaker for sinners whenever it wins a prize, um, such as it did tonight uh last night. Um, and so there's sort of this unknown factor here, right? Which is if we're faced between Stan Skarsgaard getting his, you know, first to win on his first nomination um in a movie that is clearly liked and loved, but not as much as the two front runners or Sean Penn getting his third, you know, if there isn't an opportunity there for Delroy Lindo and the Sinners campaign to exploit and sort of give a prize, not unlike Jamie Lee Curtis in Everything, Everywhere, All at Once, right, and give the supporting actor prize to Delroy. The only difference there being that Jamie Lee Curtis won these bigger awards, right? That Delroy would fail to even be listed at. Right. Right. And so that I think is still very much a possibility.

SPEAKER_03 1:17:55

I agree. It's it's a tough one. Um and my gut says that Sean Penn doesn't win, doesn't win a third. Three is very difficult. I think he will win three. I mean, you know, I think he's a he's is a incredible one of our greatest actors ever, and and and certainly very respected by the academy or by members of the academy. Um I'm just not sure that this is the part that gets him his third. I don't know. I I it doesn't feel it doesn't sit well with me at the same time. I doesn't sit well with me for one battle to go out empty-handed in terms of the acting races.

SPEAKER_02 1:18:29

I I think that that's I understand your conundrum. And I again I think this is another hairline um difference between who's gonna end up winning this category. I think it could go really any way. Um so it this is gonna be a very, very, very difficult category to

WEAPONS and Amy Madigan get a boost with Best Supporting Actress win

SPEAKER_02 1:18:50

predict.

SPEAKER_03 1:18:50

And then moving on to um best supporting actress, also a very tricky category. Um, you know, I thought this was a prime moment for Winnie Mosaku to land the win, um, especially that Sinners was really loved and the award ceremony as a whole.

SPEAKER_04 1:19:07

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:19:07

Um, but as we said, she had her, she kind of already did that at BAFTA. She kind of started that train at BAFTA already. Although it would have been great. It would have been nice for BAFTA and SAG, right? It still remains in the air. But what for me personally, when I saw that Amy Madigan won for uh weapons, made me feel more sure that Woumi Musaku can take that category. Um, obviously, as you said, it would have been better if she had won the category. But if her main competition isn't Tayana Taylor, who should have won this if she was really going to win the Academy, the Oscar. Um, if her main competition isn't Tayana Taylor in the best picture winner, or the very likely best picture winner, and it's Amy Madigan, who is the film's only nomination for weapons in a role and a performance that they don't typically award these kind of uh they don't typically give an Oscar to. They just don't. Um that's why the film had so much momentum and still failed to land anything but Amy Madigan.

SPEAKER_04 1:20:04

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:20:05

Um in a category that needed a veteran, right? That helped too. Right. Um uh then I feel like Woman Musaku can Woman Musaku can beat Amy Madigan.

SPEAKER_04 1:20:16

Um kind of funny that it's kind of come down to possibly the two Warner Brothers.

SPEAKER_03 1:20:21

Yeah. Yeah. Well, it would have been either way because the three top contenders were all the Warner Brothers.

SPEAKER_02 1:20:26

Right, but these two in particular had a lot of like speculative witchcraft and voodoo behind them. So I think that was kind of interesting.

SPEAKER_03 1:20:33

No, I think it's interesting that I remember someone who I won't name on Twitter saying that, oh, how cool is it gonna be that maybe it's gonna be the supporting actor is gonna come down to two witches, Amy Madigan and Ariano Grande for Wicked, you know, which is obviously yeah, yeah. But I agree, there's there's a there's a there's an interesting symmetry to that. But again, why wouldn't voters faced with that decision say, Well, I'm gonna go for the movie that I liked more, which is obviously Sinners, right? Which is nominated for 16 and broke the record. Why would they say, No, I'm not gonna go for Sinners and I'm gonna go for the film that was only one nomination? You're you're you know, and has and has a you know, you know, character stabbing their face, and you know, is very much in the in the realm of you know, uh, you know, mainstream horror.

SPEAKER_02 1:21:22

I completely see that logic. I also think there's a bit of a symmetry here, right, with the supporting actor race in the sense that in very much the same way that Stellan Skarsgaard missed that SAG nomination, which isn't a killer for an Oscar win, you know, case in point Regina King for uh FBO Street and Talk back in 2018, but it's never great, right? Amy Madigan missed the BAFTA nomination for weapons, yeah, which again is not always a killer, but again, it's not great. No, it's not. Um, and so she was shortlisted. And she was shortlisted. Um, and so there is something sort of like an interesting symmetry there, yeah, right.

SPEAKER_03 1:21:58

Um like I I understand the Amy Madigan argument because she's a veteran and she's never won, and this can be probably the last moment that she has possibly um to capitalize on an award. Right. I get all that. The problem is the vehicle she's in that's just not the thing that wins an Academy Award. I also acting, yeah. You know, it just it's just not. I also wonder if it's gone. And again, if they're going to kind of you know sidestep that a little bit and give it to a performance or movie that doesn't typically win those categories, well, Sinners is right there too, which is very genre, also yes.

SPEAKER_02 1:22:31

Um I also wonder if it's gone around in the industry yet. Does the idea that like they're going to keep making on Gladys movies? Um, and there's gonna be a sequel with Amy Manigan, and I'm sure there'll be a prequel at some point. And so if that sort of knowledge is something that is gonna turn off voters, I wonder if if it that's gotten enough traction. Yeah, um, and so that could end up being a factor. Um, these sort of more populist audience commercial friendly movies, you know. I think about, you know, remember Meryl Streep for the Devil Wars Prada, which I'm thinking about Devil Wars Prada 2, and she's uh she's wonderful in Devil Wars Prada 1, but you you don't win an Oscar just playing Miranda.

SPEAKER_03 1:23:11

But but also I think the win that um the win for Amy Madigan for weapons here at the SAG reminded me a lot of the win for uh Demi Moore for the substance last year, which is that the voting body at the SAG seems to really respond to these sort of populist picks and these, you know, uh, you know, uh zygisty zygoty uh social media driven narratives, you know, and and you know, um, in much the same way that Demi Moore was benefiting from, you know, the movie that she was in and the narrative that she could be winning for a movie like that, you know, stands alongside this idea that, you know, I saw weapons, it was a huge summer hit, it was so much fun, I had a great time watching it. Right. She was a she was a gas, right, you know, um on GLADIS, you know, so I'm gonna vote for her. Right. You know, but I think the mentality shifts when we go to the academy, who I think are a little bit more serious-minded, serious-minded about what they're gonna give the ultimate award to. I think that's fine. I think populism and mainstream isn't isn't gonna cut it.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:22

Yeah, I think that's fair. And then the but I will say, you know, to counterbalance that just a little bit, you know, winning for a populist film in the supporting race is not the same as winning for a populist film in the leading race.

SPEAKER_03 1:24:33

I remember, we know when he ledger one for the Yeah, but even Demi Moore, who was probably really close to winning, at least her film was on it for best picture.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:40

Also true, right?

SPEAKER_03 1:24:40

It's a weapon, and a best director, too. It's a big movie. And weapons is nowhere to be found besides supporting actress.

SPEAKER_02 1:24:45

Yeah. Um, so this race, again, certainly not solidified, but I think you and I are thinking this was possibly more than anything a pretty significant blow to Tiana Taylor.

SPEAKER_03 1:24:56

Yes, I think that's the big, the biggest takeaway. Yeah, because if Tiana Taylor won had any chance of winning in my mind, we would see that strength somewhere at the BAFTA or the SAG. And the fact that she's missing those, I think, goes to what we've been saying that she just doesn't have enough credits, she's too new, yeah. Her character is just too prickly to want to endorse for a win.

SPEAKER_02 1:25:21

Yeah, I and I I think I just want to point out like one last thing. Again, just the symmetry of the whole thing, where like Diana did have a pretty big win at the Golden Globe, yeah, right. Happened to be the only stop along the uh race where Stellan Skarsgard was also able to win. And so I think that's like an interesting idea that like the Globe winners, the SAG winners, the BAFTA winners, none of them match. Um, and so the question is what kind of mix are we gonna get at the Oscars? Are we gonna get an exact match from somewhere? Like, is it gonna be the two exact Golden Globe winners, for example, because we don't want to give Sean Penn a third, so here's for Stellan, and we have to we want to give um one battle and acting on uh win, and so here's one for Teyana. Um, so I do think I'm gonna be looking at that till the the very end. Right. Um, because it's kind of I don't remember the last time it was this spread out. Right, you know, yeah, yeah, 100%. Um

Michael B. Jordan stuns in Best Actor; Timothée Chalamet can't repeat with SAG

SPEAKER_02 1:26:19

and then the final, I think, acting category, individual acting category to talk about is probably maybe the biggest category of the night, which was best actor. And we'll start off by saying, you know, that you know, it was it continued to sort of show that Marty Supreme is really lagging here.

SPEAKER_03 1:26:37

Right. I think that possibly it would be a different story if he hadn't won the sag last year for Complete Unknown. Possibly. But I I took it. I know the odds were stacked exactly. I know that he was, I think, the favorite in Gold Derby to win, but you and I knew very well that it's very unlikely for him to win back to back. The amount of people who've been able to do that at SAG is a very, very small number.

SPEAKER_02 1:26:57

The last on the film side, the last actor that was able to go back to back was Renee Zalweger for Chicago and Cold Mountain with a category shift. And so Timothy Chalamet would have done it in the same category, which is not great. But we talked about it, we had a discussion about it after we finally saw Marty Supreme, which is man, Marty Supreme should have come out first, and then a complete unknown should have come out, and then the complete unknown would have been a walk, right? He would have walked with a complete unknown. Yeah, but just there's just so many um difficulties in getting Marty Supreme uh you know as the best actor bid, you know, through the finish line.

SPEAKER_03 1:27:32

Yeah, I think it can you're right, it continues to show that there's huge red flags for the Timothy Chalamet win, right? Uh all the factors you've already said.

SPEAKER_02 1:27:40

So he's gonna go into the Oscar race with essentially like a globe.

SPEAKER_03 1:27:45

Right. Yeah. Which is the same story with Tayana and Stan Skarskar.

SPEAKER_02 1:27:49

Yeah. Which is interesting too. And I will say, like, he has quote unquote still an edge over Wagner, who's going in with just a globe, but Wagner's going in with a globe. And significant snubs, right?

SPEAKER_03 1:28:02

And in these precursors. Right. Um, exactly. And you know, we were predicting, or at least our prediction was for Leonardo DiCaprio for one battle after another. I know that he was not among the top favorites to prevail here. Our reasoning I thought was pretty sound, which is that again, one battle, if it is the best picture winner, as we firmly believe that it is, it should work out with an acting award. If you're gonna give the acting award to Stan Skarsgard and you're gonna give supporting actress to possibly someone like Wound Me, then really all you've got is actor. And actually, actor wouldn't be a bad place because A, Leo is a beloved actor who's going to have more than one Oscar. And B, in this competition, I think, you know, when we're talking about Wagner Mora, who doesn't have a SAG nomination or didn't have a BAFTA nomination despite being on the on the long list. And we don't have we haven't yet had a foreign performance win that wasn't, you know, nominated at SAG. You know, Marianne Cotriard did get nominated at SAG for Le'Veon Rose, Roberto Benigno D did get nominated at SAG for um uh Life is Beautiful, Adrian Brody did get nominated for the piano the pianist. Um so you know, Wagner Morrow is missing that crucial sag. Um, it should be someone like Ethan Hawk because of his veteran status and his this is his fifth nomination, his third acting nomination. But the I think the film it just stands to appeal to you know a lesser uh uh less less people in the academy. Um it's very static, you know. Um uh so it's kind of niche also. And then you have um uh Timothy Chalamet with the detractions we've already mentioned. So you're left with Leo DiCaprio or Michael B. Jordan, right? You know, uh which happen to be the two front movies, and exactly, exactly. And my my point is that or my reasoning was that after seeing Sinners, uh, you know, and I I don't think I'm being biased here, but I think that the character and the performance that Michael B. Jordan gives in Sinners, I don't think is loud enough. He is playing twins, but apart from that, you know, I think it lacks that sort of monumental showiness that they tend to award. Again, Sinners is a very ensemble-driven film, you know, um uh by and large. And so for me, it's really hard for me to picture that being a performance that wins best actor.

SPEAKER_01 1:30:25

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:30:25

Whereas for Leo DiCaprio, I can see him getting a second Oscar. It would make sense for him to get a second Oscar for a film that dominated the award circuit and that is going to win best picture. Um, and a film that, you know, years down the line, people will remember as being a very iconic film, like one battle after another. It makes sense for someone like Dude DiCaprio and his stature to win a best actor prize with a movie like that.

SPEAKER_04 1:30:49

Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:30:50

Um, and yet he's yet to sort of this was the moment, I think, for that train to stop to start. To start, yeah. Um, and it didn't. Yeah, they passed it. And instead, instead they said I'd rather give it to Michael B. Jordan for centers. Yeah. So what's gonna happen, an actor?

SPEAKER_02 1:31:04

I mean, I think that this is again gonna be an extraordinarily difficult race to call because now you have possibly the two most pivotal awards. You have one going to Richard Aramaio, right, uh BAFTA, and then you have Michael picking up the sag. And again, there's a lot of unconventional aspects to giving the win there. At the same time, we have to look to see the last time an actor was able to pull out this victory without any major stops on the telecast portion of the campaign, which is the situation for Leo, right? Um, at the same time, I do think this was a major setback for Timothy Chalamet and a major setback for Ethan Hawke. Right. Um, and so maybe the the one, the one sort of like the Del Royal Lindo logic, the one person who was possibly not touched by a decision to give this award to Michael B. Jordan is possibly Wagner Mora because he just was not present. Right. Um, and he was not present when Richard Aramaio won at the BAFTA either. And we've talked about sort of again, just this weird symmetry where, like, if we're stuck between an unconventional win for Michael B. Jordan on his first nomination, Timothy Chalamet having those detractions, Leo DiCaprio winning a second for this particular role, Ethan Hawke not having the strength in in the momentum of the film to pick up a win, if this isn't a moment to make up for you know Brazil, for example, um the loss for Fernando Torres last year, right? Which seemed like it could possibly capitalize on that uh Globe win and pick up the Oscar. Is this that gonna be the logic? And we talked about it with foreign film. Like, can the logic be this year? I'm gonna skip secret agent for foreign film, even if it's the favorite, because I just gave it to Brazil. Can the same logic exist and best actor? Um, in the sense that, you know, I didn't give Brazil a major acting award win last year, and with this competition, I feel comfortable giving it to Wagner Mora and him representing a win for the secret agent. I also think it's interesting in the point, again, that symmetry here, which is that Wagner Mora again is on the Brazilian side, but but on paper, and and and I think on paper there's a lot that is attractive about the idea about Ethan Hawke winning, right? And he's being campaigned by Sony Picture Classics, who was campaigning Fernando Torres last year, who they weren't able to finish it off. But I remember when Ethan Hawke got the shout-out from Richard Aramano, right? Um, and best actor. And I wonder if you know voters pay attention to things like that. Again, if the if this is the competition, am I just gonna give it to Ethan Hawk because he's Ethan Hawk kind of thing? I I I wish he would have gotten an award, but this is one of those races where like it's really tough to tell if these awards are gonna matter or not.

SPEAKER_03 1:33:57

Yeah, you know, yeah, I agree. It's really, really confusing. I don't like that Agramora doesn't didn't get that SAG nomination, as is as we said. Again, not many people win without that. That's what killed Fernando Torres. Yeah. Um, if there's a foreign performance, you know, again, as we said, it should have landed somewhere at SAG, even if it didn't end up with a win. Um, it didn't even get up after nomination, yeah.

SPEAKER_02 1:34:22

Actually, I'm not sure if he was shortlisted, but now he was a nomination. I think he was. He might have been, but I'm I'm not sure. I I'm I'm not sure, but uh he did miss right that that that nomination. Right.

SPEAKER_03 1:34:32

And so um I but I I just don't see the Michael B. Jordan performance being he would have go all the way. Yeah, I just not see I don't think it's showy enough for them. Um, you know, I I I I think it's still too a part of this ensemble, right? Uh doesn't stand out enough, in my opinion.

SPEAKER_02 1:34:51

Um I mean it's crazy because we're and we're gonna end up with the Golden Globe drama winner versus the Golden Globe comedy winner versus the SAG winner versus the only actor who's actually won before in this category who's in the best picture front runner, and then the only veteran actor on his first leading acting nomination who hasn't won before. Yeah, right. So that's the thing.

SPEAKER_03 1:35:11

Honestly, on paper, Ethan Hawk makes the most sense for a win. Yeah. But when was the last time somebody won without a major stop somewhere? Yeah, and I think you also made a good point as to when was the last time an actor that was representing some a film a company like uh Sony Picture Classics ended up winning the Oscar without showing up anywhere else in terms of uh winning a precursor, yeah, uh a televised precursor. So this thing is all over the place. It is, it's gonna be really tough. Yeah. Um yeah, but the room certainly loved Michael B. Jordan. They didn't know they were they were very enthusiastic.

SPEAKER_02 1:35:45

Yeah, they were very enthusiastic, which means that most of the room was not crying about, oh, it's not Ethan Hawk, oh, it's not Leo, or oh, it's not Timothy Chalamet. And that's a that's could be a pretty powerful thing. But when it comes time for the academy, as you and I have discussed before, you're gonna get British voters who just said no to Michael B. Jordan, and you're gonna get a lot of international voters. And sinners is not the same sort of international phenomenon that it is in America in the US. 100%. I think that's an excellent point.

SPEAKER_03 1:36:13

I think that's an excellent point, and I think that's something that our hopefully our listeners and everybody who's covering this race should be aware of. Yeah, they should take that to heart. You know, a sinners in America is not the same thing as sinners, you know, worldwide.

SPEAKER_02 1:36:24

That said, there was enough sinners phenomenon among voters, whether in the US or abroad, for it to be the most nominated film in Oscar history. Right. And so it's this is gonna be a very tricky race. Yes, yeah.

SPEAKER_03 1:36:37

Um

SINNERS overtakes record-breaking ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER for Ensemble win

SPEAKER_03 1:36:38

yeah, and then there's ensemble that went to Sinners, which I thought was very which I I I I felt very sure that it was gonna be Sinners with an outside shot for one battle. Actually, one battle pretty under underperformed a lot because I only got one. It got one.

SPEAKER_02 1:36:51

I think the caveat there was that you know, yes, Sinners won, but one battle broke the records. So you would think that it would have maybe broken for one battle at the end, that did not come to pass, as you said.

SPEAKER_03 1:37:03

It was clear that the you know, acting the sack, this the union was most enthusiastic about Sinners, right?

SPEAKER_02 1:37:11

And it sort of makes sense, as you said, about you know, the union uh these awards becoming a little bit more populist, right? Exactly. Because Sinners is certainly a much more popular film than one battle after another.

SPEAKER_03 1:37:20

Yeah, a hundred percent. Um, but I still feel pretty confident about one battle prevailing on Oscar night, at least I do. Um, and uh I think this was the big night for Sinners in terms of you know kind of winning almost everything that it's up for.

SPEAKER_02 1:37:35

It would be interesting if they flip, right? In the sense that one battle breaks records at the SAG, fails to win the big award, Sinners breaks records at the Oscars, possibly fails to win the big award. But if you and I are feeling like we said, confident that Sinners is in a spot right now where it should win at least one acting award, right, in Wound Me, and now we have the potential for Michael to surprise, and it seems like no screenplay is getting even close to it in original screenplay. You know, you gotta be careful that there isn't gonna be just enough um favor for that movie among those two elements, add to that it being the most nominated film in Oscar history to really give one bat after another a run for its money. I also think there may be a possibility here where between the two Warner Brothers films, they want to split it and say share the wealth of Warner Brothers. They take Best Picture and Best Director for two very different films, and at the end of the day, I would rather not give Best Picture to one battle after another because it is the more um the more uh touchy film, right? Um a little bit too close to reality.

SPEAKER_03 1:38:53

Yeah, but that that's its biggest asset. You yeah, the biggest asset is yeah, you know, voters, at least the recent pattern has been, you know, the winner needs to represent something, you know, uh significant, right? That I want to communicate with my win. Yes. And while there is uh, you know, certainly very rich, you know issues at the at the root of a film like Sinners, right? There's just so much blatant, you know, um correlations one back after another. And I think I think that again that's part of its secret weapon.

SPEAKER_02 1:39:27

But I do I I agree with you. It could be part of its secret weapon, but I do fear that there are gonna be some people who just would rather say, I don't need something so close to reality right now. And so we'll see if that ends up showing up. But I do think you know the race is getting a little bit tighter. Right. Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 1:39:46

Well, we covered a lot, we covered a lot of uh important precursors that were uh happening while we were away, and uh hopefully we're up to speed. Again, we'll be uh updating those charts so you can check them out, those prediction charts, and you'll see all the precursors and all the awards on there.

SPEAKER_02 1:40:02

And we'll be posting up a few more episodes um discussing our final predictions across all of the Oscar categories so you can make your final decisions, play your Oscar. Um, so look out for that in the coming days. Um thank you so much for joining us. Thank you for joining us again, and it's a pleasure to be back. Yeah, uh visit us on our website, frames.com. You can follow us um on Twitter at Academy Anon. Um, and then uh until next time, this is Joseph and Jules, and it's been a pleasure. If you've been enjoying the Academy Anonymous podcast and want to support the work we're doing, there's a voluntary support link in the show notes. Totally optional. Just a way to help us keep the podcast going. Thank you for listening.

SPEAKER_03 1:40:51

The music on this episode, entitled Cool Cats, was graciously provided by Kevin McLeod and Incompitech.com. Licensed under Creative Commons by attribution three point zero. HTTP calling forward slash forward slash Creative Commons.org forward slash licenses forward slash by forward slash three point zero.

SPEAKER_02 1:41:21

Disclaimer. The Academy Anonymous Podcast is in no way affiliated or endorsed by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences.